The National Nuclear Security Administration—responsible for developing and managing America’s nuclear warheads—needs better program management to ensure its new nuclear weapons remain on schedule, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.
In particular, the GAO report authors said the NNSA needs to set priorities and steer resources to the most critical technologies.
Delays are creeping into new nuclear weapons programs because of an insufficient number of program overseers, late materials, and inconsistent policies and milestones from one program to another, auditors wrote.
The NNSA is developing the actual nuclear warheads that will be carried by new delivery systems like the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile and the Long-Range Stand-Off cruise missile. The delivery systems are being developed by the Air Force and the Pentagon.
Synchronizing the schedules for the new nuclear warheads with the new delivery systems is the challenge, and GAO authors wrote that there is generally good coordination between the Pentagon and the NNSA in getting that right.
Yet there are still some delays that can be chalked up to an inconsistent approach to developing these systems, the GAO report notes. On top of that, the NNSA only has a handful of program managers keeping an eye on dozens of companies, each with highly disparate functions under the vast nuclear weapon enterprise.
“GAO recommends that NNSA document, in a formal and comprehensive manner, the process its nuclear weapon acquisition programs must follow to identify which technologies are critical technologies,” the report states. The NNSA agreed with that recommendation.
The agency also lacks a formal process for its programs to identify “technologies critical to meeting a system’s operational requirements that are new or novel or are used in a new or novel way,” the GAO noted. Without one, it risks wasting money or time.
The GAO acknowledged that NNSA has established “numerous requirements that its programs must follow regarding, among other things, the establishment of cost and schedule baselines and the assessment of technology readiness,” but said these are inconsistent.
That’s important because “according to NNSA officials, it is difficult to estimate how long it will take to mature technologies to a manufacturing-ready state. As a result, NNSA’s programs have had difficulty reaching technology readiness milestones.”
That was borne out by a review of programs, during which GAO found that a majority had not reached the minimum required readiness levels for critical tech by the start of the development phase—despite the fact that NNSA guidelines stating that a program must reach certain Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) before moving to a new phase. GAO blamed a lack of documentation and enforcement of guidelines.
The GAO did note that in 2019, the NNSA established an office “to perform early stage research and development activities to advance technologies to a higher level of readiness before passing them on to nuclear weapon acquisition programs for further development.”
The GAO also looked at several warhead programs in particular and provided status reports.
W80-4
The W80-4 warhead life extension program—which will equip the LRSO missile—is now expected to be completed in September 2033, one year behind its schedule baseline. The GAO noted that the program cost of $13 billion hasn’t changed since it was last evaluated in March 2023, though it will be $400 million more than the previous baseline set in 2019.
Final design review for the warhead is planned for November 2025, and the first production unit should be completed in September 2027. Full-scale production starts in January 2030. The Air Force is buying just under 1,100 LRSO missiles. The GAO found “no significant challenges” with the LRSO schedule, but a vendor that makes the explosive material that detonates the warhead is planning to end production permanently, and the NNSA is working with various agencies “to address” this issue.
W88-Alt 370
The W88-Alt 370 program, which modifies the W88 warhead used on sea-launched ballistic missiles—but doesn’t extend their service lives—has been in production since 2022 and will be completed in September 2026. The $2.9 billion program is running $300 million over its expected cost “due to an issue with a procured part” in 2019. The GAO said $172 million more is likely needed for some “technology maturation.”
B61-12
The B61-12 life extension program, which is for a tactical nuclear weapon that will equip the F-35 and other platforms, is also scheduled to close out in 2026, a year later than planned, and at a cost of $8.4 billion versus the baseline $8 billion. Its cost increase was also chalked up to an issue with a procured part in 2019.
The Air Force developed a new tailkit for the weapon to make it more accurate, and it has new safety and security gear. “In October 2023, DOD announced plans to build an additional B61 variant, the B61-13, using the B61-12 production line,” GAO said, and NNSA “will produce fewer B61-12 bombs than originally planned to accommodate the B61-13 program.” Some money for the B61-12 will be used to “pay for the costs associated with the manufacture of nonnuclear components used for the B61-13 program.”
W87-1
The W87-1 Modification Program, which will replace the W78 warhead and be deployed on the LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM, includes a new-manufacture nuclear “pit” and “insensitive explosives” for triggering. Production engineering starts in September 2025; the final design review is slated for December 2027 and the first production unit is expected sometime between December 2030 and two years later. Full-scale production starts in 2033.
The NNSA estimates the program cost at between $15.2 and 16.3 billion, though NNSA told the GAO the cost could go up to $17.1 billion using “more conservative assumptions” with an 80 percent confidence level.
However, it’s not yet clear what the roughly $40 billion cost and schedule overruns on the overall Sentinel program will have on the warhead’s schedule yet. There is an ongoing review of the Mk21A rentry vehicle program, which will carry the warhead from the missile to the target. Air Force officials told the GAO that “they expect both Air Force programs to announce delays in the availability of hardware and flight testing dates that could result in delays of up to a year or longer for flight tests.”
W93
The W93 program is a new nuclear warhead most likely to be deployed first on new Navy sea-launched ballistic missiles, but intended for joint Air Force/Navy use in the long term. Development engineering starts in October 2026; production starts in the “mid-2030s.” In April 2024, the NNSA estimated the program will cost between $20.9 billion and $24.8 billion. The program will produce new nuclear pits.
The GAO report notes that “the program faces several challenges with manufacturing certain components. The program is also reliant on multiple NNSA production programs to reinstate capabilities to produce new plutonium pits, fabricate new secondaries, and improve lithium and high explosives sourcing and production.”