The Air Force will promote 11.64 percent of eligible master sergeants to senior master sergeant this year, continuing a steady upward trajectory.
The Air Force Personnel Center announced Feb. 24 that 1,635 Airmen are moving up to E-8 out of 14,041 eligible. The full list of those selected will be posted on the center’s website Feb. 27 at 8 a.m. Central time.
The selection rate is the highest in six years and up 0.2 percent over last cycle. The total number of those selected is down slightly from the last cycle, but the number of those eligible dipped even more to its lowest level since 2019.
Back in 2022, the Air Force warned noncommissioned officers to expect lower than usual promotion rates due to enlisted grade structure revisions and high retention. In particular, they said, too many Airmen were getting promoted too quickly, leading to a lack of experience at lower ranks and a top-heavy enlisted force. At the time, leaders said they didn’t expect to reach a “healthier” distribution until 2025.
The lower rates hit grades E-5 to E-7 particularly hard, with some of the most competitive cycles in decades.
For senior master sergeant in particular, though, high retention seemed to play a bigger role. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic led to many Airmen staying in the service, creating especially competitive cycles in 2020-2022. It peaked in 2021, when only 1,194 Airmen out of 17,107 eligible were promoted to E-8—putting the selection rate below 7 percent, a rare occurrence in recent history.
Since then, promotion rates have increased four years in a row, though they are still a good bit off the high of 2012, when 13.78 percent of those eligible were selected.
Senior Master Sergeant Promotion Statistics
| Year | Selected | Eligible | Promotion Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,635 | 14,041 | 11.64% |
| 2024 | 1,734 | 15,151 | 11.44% |
| 2023 | 1,629 | 16,031 | 10.16% |
| 2022 | 1,443 | 17,419 | 8.28% |
| 2021 | 1,194 | 17,107 | 6.98% |
| 2020 | 1,184 | 15,544 | 7.62% |
| 2019 | 1,434 | 13,316 | 10.77% |
| 2018 | 1,549 | 13,054 | 11.87% |
| 2017 | 1,391 | 11,788 | 11.80% |
| 2016 | 1,467 | 11,904 | 12.32% |
| 2015 | 1,257 | 14,362 | 8.75% |
| 2014 | 999 | 14,823 | 6.74% |
| 2013 | 1,367 | 12,834 | 10.65% |
| 2012 | 1,702 | 12,351 | 13.78% |
| 2011 | 1,274 | 12,378 | 10.29% |
| 2010 | 1,269 | 13,741 | 9.24% |