DOD’s New China Report Details CCP’s Growing Military Arsenal

DOD’s New China Report Details CCP’s Growing Military Arsenal

China’s military continues to expand its reach around the globe, building up strategic and tactical capabilities, especially its missile programs, according to a Pentagon report released Oct. 19. 

The updated annual China Military Power Report says the People’s Liberation Army is developing: 

  • Air-to-air missiles that can strike from beyond visual range
  • Conventionally-armed intercontinental missile systems 
  • Increased numbers of nuclear warheads 

While the 2021 edition of the China Military Power Report cited the PL-15 missile, a beyond-visual-range munition often compared to the U.S.’s AIM-120 AMRAAM, the update did not. In a press briefing, a senior defense official declined to discuss China’s long-range air-to-air missiles in any depth. However, unconfirmed reports indicate the Chinese are working on a more advanced long-range missile, sometimes called PL-XX or PL-21. The new DOD report seems to reference this development, noting noted that the People’s Republic of China is “exploring dual-mode guidance capabilities, which uses both active radar and infrared homing seekers that improve target-selection capabilities and make the missiles more resistant to countermeasures.” 

In surface-to-surface weapons, the senior defense official said that if China does develop a conventionally-armed intercontinental missile, it would mark the end of a progression for the PLA Rocket Force, which has steadily developed short-, medium-, and long-range conventional ballistic missiles.  

“It would give them a conventional capability to strike the U.S., for the first time for the PLA Rocket Force, and to threaten targets in the continental U.S. and Hawaii and Alaska,” the official noted. “And I think as we see them maybe exploring the development of those conventionally-armed ICBMs, it raises some questions about risks to strategic stability.” 

Meanwhile, China continues to rapidly expand its nuclear forces, which U.S. officials have previously termed “breathtaking.” While last year’s report predicted the PLA may have “about 1,000” nuclear warheads by 2030, and 1,500 by 2035, this year’s report was less definitive; while still projecting “over 1,000” warheads by 2030, it does not offer a longer-term forecast.  

More immediately, the report posits that China “probably completed the construction of its three new solid-propellant silo fields in 2022, … [with] at least 300 new ICBM silos, and has loaded at least some ICBMs into these silos.” In all, the report estimates Chine “possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023,” up from 400 a year ago. 

While that growth is significant, China’s nuclear force is still small in comparison to the U.S. and Russia. Russia has nearly 5,900, according to the Federation of American Scientists, while he U.S. warhead inventory numbers more than 5,200.

“We see the PRC continuing to quite rapidly modernize and diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” the senior defense official said. “What they’re doing now, if you compare it to what they were doing about a decade ago, it really far exceeds that in terms of scale and complexity. They’re expanding and investing in their land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this quite major expansion of their nuclear forces.” 

While China’s nuclear capabilities grow, it is also updating its air fleet. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force”. The Pentagon report noted that “the PLAAF, “in particular, has received repeated calls from its leadership to become a truly ‘strategic’ air force, able to project power at long distances to advance and defend the PRC’s global interests.” 

To do so, the report said, the PLAAF is investing in:  

  • Upgrades to its fifth-generation J-20 fighter 
  • Developing its H-20 bomber, projected to have both nuclear and conventional roles 
  • “New medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets.”

On top of that, the report notes for the first time that China has fielded the new Y-20U tanker. 

“These new air refuelable aircraft will significantly expand the PRC’s ability to conduct long-range offensive air operations,” the report states. “In addition to aerial refueling, it is expected that there will likely be further Y-20 variants, such as a possible [airborne early warning and control] variant.” 

Taken together, all these developments mean the PLAAF “is rapidly catching up to western air forces,” the report concludes. 

At the same time, the PLA’s aviation forces have become increasingly aggressive in confronting and harassing U.S. and allied aircraft in the region, a trend the Pentagon highlighted earlier this week by declassifying and releasing dozens of photos and videos of threatening and unsafe behavior from the past two years.

US Forces in Iraq Attacked by Drones as Threats Grow in Middle East

US Forces in Iraq Attacked by Drones as Threats Grow in Middle East

Two drone attacks were launched against U.S. forces in Iraq in the span of 24 hours, the U.S. military said Oct. 18.

The attacks, which took place in western and northern Iraq, came as a wave of unrest swept Arab nations over Israel’s clash with Hamas. They are also the first attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq by suspected Iranian-backed militias in more than a year. 

U.S. officials said the targets of the drone attacks were al Asad air base in western Iraq and al Harir air base in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. U.S. efforts to defend against the drones were largely successful, though some coalition forces suffered minor injuries, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement. A U.S. defense official said drones were engaged by ground-based systems.

“In the last 24 hours, the U.S. military defended against three drones near U.S. and Coalition forces in Iraq,” CENTCOM said in a statement released on Oct. 18. “In western Iraq, U.S. forces engaged two drones, destroying one and damaging the second, resulting in minor injuries to coalition forces. Separately in northern Iraq, U.S. forces engaged and destroyed a drone, resulting in no injuries or damage.”

The U.S. military has been on high alert following Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the punishing air strikes Israel mounted in response. 

Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia group, has also launched rocket strikes against Israel but has held back for now from launching a full-fledged missile attack. 

Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran. Experts said the attacks in Iraq also appeared to be conducted by Iranian-backed militant groups.

“To put it simply, the Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, have been wanting to find a way to get involved since this started,” said Michael Knights of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

U.S. officials have been worried that Iran might seek to escalate the conflict between Hamas and Israel. President Joe Biden has ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Eastern Mediterranean and sent more aircraft to the region to try to deter Hezbollah and Iran.

On Oct. 16, Biden spoke to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and discussed “ongoing efforts to prevent an expansion of the conflict in Gaza in the wake of Hamas’s abhorrent attack in Israel,” according to a readout of the call from the White House. 

“This is very much all evidence of a kind of region-wide network of Iranian proxies all seeking to kind of back each other up, reinforce each other’s operations,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at the Middle East Institute. “What everybody’s been concerned about for the last several days is that the U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria would become sort of sitting targets for Iranian retaliation for everything happening in Gaza.”

The U.S. has about 2,500 troops in Iraq who are advising Iraqi forces that are fighting Islamic State group militants and some 900 troops in Syria who are working with local partners to combat ISIS. 

Since Hamas’ attack on Israel, the U.S. has stepped up its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance efforts with both manned and unmanned platforms to look for signs of escalation in the region, according to a U.S. official.

“In this moment of heightened alert, we are vigilantly monitoring the situation in Iraq and the region,” CENTCOM said in its statement.

The firepower the U.S. has sent to the region includes the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, whose four fighter squadrons and other aircraft have been operating off in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The Ford is accompanied by cruise missile-carrying warships. 

U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles, A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, and F-16 Fighting Falcons multirole fighters have also been sent to the Middle East, in addition to the fighters that were previously in the region. Another American carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, is on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean, also accompanied by other warships.

On Oct. 17, the Pentagon said 2,000 troops were being placed in a heightened state of readiness in case they needed to deploy to the region.

The USS Bataan, which carries about 2,400 Marines, as well as fighters and helicopters, was headed closer to Israel in case it is required, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said Oct. 17. The Bataan is currently operating near the Red Sea, according to U.S. officials.

“We want to emphasize U.S. forces will defend U.S. and Coalition forces against any threat,” CENTCOM said.

Saltzman: Why Record-Breaking ‘Victus Nox’ Launch Is Such a Big Deal

Saltzman: Why Record-Breaking ‘Victus Nox’ Launch Is Such a Big Deal

Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman likened the record-breaking launch of a satellite last month to when Chuck Yeager broke the sound barrier in 1947, saying it has implications for how quickly the Space Force can respond to threats in the future.

“Now the question is, how do we take advantage of that?” Saltzman said during an Oct. 18 virtual fireside chat with the Center for a New American Security. “Chuck Yeager breaks the sound barrier. Big deal, it’s one airplane, what are you going to do with it? It opens the door, it shows the capability, it shows what you can do, it shows how you do it.”

Dubbed Victus Nox, the launch took place Sept. 14 at Vandenberg Space Force, Calif., just 27 hours after the receipt of launch orders. Less than a year earlier, Space Systems Command contracted with Millennium Space Systems and Firefly Aerospace to build a satellite to help with the service’s Space Domain Awareness mission. Then the waiting began.

“We built a satellite in less than a year and put it in a warehouse,” Saltzman said. “And it sat there in a warehouse until we gave an order, and when we gave the order, it had to be ready to launch, on the launch pad, within 60 hours. They did it in 57.”

victus nox
Team Vandenberg successfully launched a space vehicle for the United States Space Force into low Earth orbit aboard Firefly’s Alpha vehicle from Vandenberg’s Space Launch Complex-2, Sept. 14, 2023, at 7:28 p.m. PDT. U.S. Space Force photo by A1C Kadielle Shaw

After that, launch crews were told to wait indefinitely again until given a launch order, after which they had 24 hours to send the satellite skywards. The launch was three hours late due to a weather hold, Saltzman said, but the team later met a requirement for the satellite to be “checked out and operational in 48 hours,” of reaching orbit, he said, meaning the satellite went from a warehouse to on-orbit and mission-capable in a week.

“Think about the contracting work that had to go in place, think about the airlift to get the satellite in place, think about the infrastructure and the telemetry of the launch facility, make sure that’s all squared away, all the safety checks that had to be done, the payload integration,” Saltzman said. “I mean, these are massive checklists that have to be run. And for those that haven’t been in the launch business, I don’t think you can fully appreciate all the work that goes into that.”

More than setting a record, the test is part of the Space Force’s larger effort to enhance the resilience of the U.S. space architecture. Part of that resilience lies in forming proliferated constellations of satellites, where there are too many targets for an adversary to realistically destroy. Another part is being able to quickly backfill that constellation, which faster launches could accelerate. But another benefit could be responding quickly to new threats.

“From the warehouse to an on-orbit capability in a week. That’s tactically responsive,” Saltzman said. “That’s something that you can respond to irresponsible behavior on-orbit and the response is directly connected to that irresponsible behavior.”

The CSO said the Space Force was able to pull off Victus Nox because it could make decisions as an independent service.

“The Air Force didn’t have time to service-level focus on something like this,” he said. “They had other things to worry about.”

USSF has already started planning another speed-run titled Victus Haze, but the next challenge is turning it into a regular capability.  

“Now you start talking about ‘how do you build a unit that can do this on a repeatable basis?’” Saltzman said. “How do you do the training? How do you put contract vehicles in place through this augmentation reserve capability? How do you put all that together so it’s operationalized, not just a demonstration capability?”

Space Force Strategy Projects First Ever Budget Drop in 2025

Space Force Strategy Projects First Ever Budget Drop in 2025

The Space Force is projecting budget reductions in the next few years—the first such cuts since the service was established in late 2019, according to a recently publicized report to Congress.

Whether such reductions will actually come to pass remains uncertain.

The Department of the Air Force’s Comprehensive Strategy for the Space Force, required by the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, includes a chart showing the service’s projected budget broken down by mission area over the future years defense program—from fiscal 2024 through 2028.

The Space Force’s 2024 budget request is for $30 billion, with investments in missile warning systems, GPS, and launch vehicles.

The document shows, however, steady decline from 2024 through 2026, with a topline figure below $30 billion in both 2025 and 2026. That is followed by a sharp uptick in 2027, above the 2024 funding level.

The chart specifically indicates cuts in spending for the coming years in areas such as Missile Warning/Missile Tracking and classified programs. Classified programs in particular are slated to decline every year over the FYDP.

Space Force spokesperson Maj. Tanya Downsworth told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the projected temporary decline in topline funding is the result of several systems transitioning from their development phase into operational readiness and the completion of prototype demonstrations.

Downsworth also emphasized that these estimations are subject to evolving requirements, emerging threats, and changes in force structure.

The 2024 budget plan would fund 10 National Se­curity Space Launches, including launching the Space Development Agency’s first communications and data transmission satellites. Tech. Sgt. James Hodgman/USSF

Last year, lawmakers expressed concerns about the Space Force’s capacity to sustain its ambitious plans and growth, particularly regarding missile warning and missile tracking (MW/MT), and asked for a new cost estimate by January 2023.

The comprehensive strategy document indicates that MW/MT investments will decline in the next few years before bumping up significantly in 2027.

The document also highlights the redesign of the Space Force’s MW/MT architecture.

“In collaboration with key stakeholders and considering emerging threat assessments, rigorous analysis, and wargaming was used to define a more resilient, more capable and more defendable MW/MT architecture,” the strategy states.

Downsworth added that this is one example where the service is innovating to ensure readiness; and deter, and, if necessary, defeat adversaries in an era of great power competition.

Lawmakers are the only ones who have expressed concern about the USSF budget and possible limitations as expanding capabilities demands hardware and personnel.

Back in June, Gen. David D. Thompson voiced reservations about leaner future investments hindering mission fulfillment.

“Either the department may need to look at its priorities for various investments, or we will have to throttle the growth that we have seen and the delivery of capabilities,” Thompson said during a livestreamed event by Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “It will simply be incumbent on us to make sure that our leaders inside the Department of Defense and in the White House and Congress understand the risks we’ll take if in fact we cannot continue that.”

Thompson also underscored that the issue lies in the fact that the existing budget agreement does not match inflation, which will reduce the service’s purchasing ability in the coming critical two years.

Like the rest of the Pentagon, the Space Force continually revisits its five-year plan and offers updates alongside its budget submissions. The fiscal 2025 budget request is slated to be submitted in February 2024. The five-year plan shown in the strategy document is only up-to-date as of February 2023.

Downsworth added that in terms of the overall budget decrease, some programs may be projected to end, but the scale of funding expectation may change to support Joint Force requirements and will be reevaluated each year. She said during the “dip year,” the service aims to put existing capabilities into active use or operation, as well as acquiring new capabilities and resources.

Space Force Budget Requests By Year

YearAmount
2021$15.4 billion
2022$18.05 billion
2023$26.1 billion
2024$30 billion
Pentagon Budget documents
‘Lives Are at Risk’: Pentagon Declassifies Hundreds of Dangerous Chinese Intercepts of US Planes

‘Lives Are at Risk’: Pentagon Declassifies Hundreds of Dangerous Chinese Intercepts of US Planes

Chinese aircraft have engaged in many more risky intercepts of U.S. planes over the past two years than was previously publicly known, the Pentagon said Oct. 17.

There have been more than 180 dangerous incidents over the South and East China Seas during that period, according to newly declassified information released by the Pentagon. That is more than the previous decade combined.

The incidents are part of a “centralized and concerted campaign to perform these risky behaviors in order to coerce a change in lawful U.S. operational activity and that of U.S. allies and partners,” Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said Oct. 17.

In a January incident, highlighted during the Pentagon briefing, a U.S. plane was flying above the South China Sea when a Chinese fighter jet armed with missiles closed within 30 feet and stayed for around 15 minutes.

That came just one month after a close call—within 20 feet—between a J-11 and an RC-135 over the South China Sea that was made public and led to recriminations on both sides.

In other instances, Chinese fighters came within 10 feet of U.S. aircraft and discharged chaff and flares.

The newly released footage comes as talks between the U.S. and the Chinese military, known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), are largely stalled at both the uniformed and civilian levels.

While both Ratner and Adm. John C. Aquilino, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), have had isolated conversations with Chinese officials, no substantive dialogue is taking place.

“I’ve asked to speak with my counterparts, the Eastern and Southern Theater commanders, now going on two and a half years,” Aquilino said. “I have yet to have one of those requests accepted.”

The newly declassified images come ahead of the annual Congressionally mandated China Military Power Report, which will highlight the rise in incidents, according to U.S. officials.

Images and video newly released by the Department capture a PLA fighter jet in the course of conducting a coercive and risky intercept against a lawfully operating U.S. asset in the East China Sea. The PLA fighter jet first sped toward the U.S. asset and crossed under the plane’s nose, causing the U.S. aircraft to lose visual contact of the PLA fighter. After the U.S, pilot opened some distance between the two planes, the PLA pilot re-approached at a distance of just 15 feet laterally and 10 feet below the U.S. plane. DOD photo

American aircraft are not the only ones being harassed by the Chinese. There have been 300 risky incidents involving the U.S. and its allies and partners since 2021.

The precise metric for determining if a Chinese intercept is risky is classified, but the standard has been consistent over time, the Pentagon says.

Looming in the background is the possibility such encounters could turn deadly, even if China’s armed aircraft have no intention of intentionally downing a U.S. plane.

In 2001, a Chinese fighter collided with a U.S. Navy spy plane, forcing the American plane to make an emergency landing in China. The American crew was temporarily detained while the aircraft was eventually returned after it had been dismantled. The Chinese pilot was killed.

“People’s lives are at risk,” Aquilino said. “One accident is too many. We went through it in 2001.”

One of the more egregious episodes occurred in June when Chinese fighter approached within 40 feet of an American surveillance plane and “flashed its weapons,” which are visible in a video released by the U.S.

“After the U.S. operator radioed the PLA fighter jet, the PLA pilot responded using explicit language, including an expletive,” the Pentagon said.

The U.S. insists it will continue to fly in international airspace. China’s territorial claims are expansive, including most of the South China Sea and the airspace above it.

“U.S. planes are operating safely, responsibly, and in accordance with international law,” Ratner said. “Indeed, the skill and professionalism of American service members should not be the only thing standing between PLA fighter pilots and a dangerous, even fatal, accident.”

An image and video newly released by the Department captures a PLA fighter jet conducting a coercive and risky intercept against a lawfully operating U.S. asset in the South China Sea, including by approaching a distance of just 70 feet from the U.S. plane. Courtesy video
A video newly released by the Department captures a PLA fighter jet conducting a coercive and risky intercept against a lawfully operating U.S. asset in the South China Sea, including by approaching a distance of just 50 feet from the U.S plane. Courtesy video
KC-135s Arrive in Saudi Arabia to Replace Departed KC-10s

KC-135s Arrive in Saudi Arabia to Replace Departed KC-10s

KC-135 Stratotankers have arrived in Saudi Arabia to replace the KC-10s which recently left the region for good after 30-plus years of service.

The aerial tankers from Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash., arrived at Prince Sultan Air Base on Oct. 2. The 384th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron (EARS) will support combat operations throughout the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

A spokesperson at Air Mobility Command told Air & Space Forces Magazine that while the exact number of deployed aircraft can’t be revealed for the operational security reasons, the KC-135s are the optimal replacement for the KC-10s with the durations of theater sorties, and the aircraft will meet Global Combatant Command requirements.

A U.S. Air Force KC-135 assigned to Fairchild Air Force Base, Washington, sits on the tarmac after arriving at Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), Oct. 2, 2023. The aircraft will operate on PSAB as part of the 384th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron (EARS) and will work to support combat operations through aerial refueling within the U.S. Air Forces Central area of responsibility. Courtesy Photo

The KC-135 can haul some 200,000 pounds of fuel and 83,000 pounds of cargo. The tanker also transports patients during aeromedical evacuations using patient support pallets. Some of the aircraft already operate in the region at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar.

KC-10s had been based out of PSAB since March 2022, but the refueler concluded its final combat sortie from the base on Oct. 3., followed by a deactivation ceremony for the 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron the next day. The last KC-10 in the region departed Oct. 5. There are no further planned deployments for the KC-10 fleet until September 2024, when the last Extender is set to retire.

With the KC-10 set to retire, the KC-135 and KC-46 Pegasus will be the only tankers left in the Air Force fleet until the service’s KC-135 Tanker Recapitalization and Next Generation Air-refueling System (NGAS) programs progress. The KC-46 has been cleared for worldwide deployments, but there has been no public indication of the aircraft operating in CENTCOM for months.

The Air Mobility Command spokesperson stated that the KC-135 swap with the KC-10 is solely for the mission takeover, and is unrelated to the rising tensions in the Middle East.

However, the demand for aerial refueling in the region may surge in the upcoming weeks as the Air Force and Navy are deploying more fighter aircraft in response to Hamas’ attack on Israel.

Last week, the 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron’s F-15Es arrived into the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, as the U.S. continued to bolster its presences and improve air operations across the region.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, and Israeli war cabinet last week in Tel Aviv, to highlight the “bolstered” USAF presence in the Middle East and the deployment of the USS Gerard R. Ford in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Air Force Says ARRW Test Provides ‘New Insights,’ But Offers Few Specifics

Air Force Says ARRW Test Provides ‘New Insights,’ But Offers Few Specifics

The Air Force conducted another test of the AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) hypersonic missile on Oct. 12, but the service is once again withholding most details.

The test was conducted off a B-52H bomber out of Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., and was an “all-up round,” indicating the hypersonic glide vehicle, inside its aeroshell, was mounted to an Army ATACMS missile booster and carried aloft by the bomber.

The test “focused on the ARRW’s end-to-end performance,” according to an Air Force release, although that release did not say whether the missile actually fired and flew to its planned target, or whether it was a success.

“We will not discuss specific test objectives,” a spokesperson said.

The Air Force last flew an ARRW missile on Aug. 21, withholding most information about the test due to secrecy about the program. It did not say whether that test was a success, either.

The ARRW program had a checkered early test phase, with several failures. Earlier this year, Air Force officials said they are closing out the ARRW program after an undisclosed number of test flights and will shift their focus to the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM.

While ARRW is a boost-glide type hypersonic system so large it must be carried on a bomber, HACM uses an air-breathing engine and is small enough to be carried by a fighter. The Air Force has not released any imagery of HACM, which is being built by Raytheon with Northrop Grumman as the engine supplier. Lockheed Martin is the prime for ARRW.

The ARRW program was structured as a rapid prototyping program, meant to quickly generate vehicles for test and demonstrate a rapid ability to produce the system at scale. The contract called for “leave behind” assets that could be used operationally or for further tests once the initial development was complete. The Air Force has not disclosed how many ARRWs were to have been produced, or how many more it has on hand for further tests.

With the Oct. 12 shot, the Air Force gained “valuable new insights into the capabilities of this new, cutting-edge technology,” and collected  “valuable, unique data,” according to a release. The information will “further a range of programs such as ARRW and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile”.

The test also “validated and improved our test and evaluation capabilities for continued development of advanced hypersonic systems.”

The comment may be a reference to the Air Force Test Center at Edwards using RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft to monitor hypersonic missile tests and gather telemetry. The Test Center is also employing new capabilities for remote use of control rooms and streamlined methods of clearing hypersonic test corridors, commander Maj. Gen. Evan C. Dertien told Air & Space Forces Magazine in a recent interview.

The Air Force has been criticized in recent years for having insufficient hypersonic test capacity, causing a slow pace of program development, but Dertien said the test center is adding capacity through a variety of measures, including new ground test capabilities and wind tunnels.  

C-130 Pilots Test Out ‘Entirely New’ Cockpit For Aging ‘H’ Models

C-130 Pilots Test Out ‘Entirely New’ Cockpit For Aging ‘H’ Models

Pilots at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., are testing out a new cockpit layout for the C-130H transport plane that will replace its analog gauges with glass multifunction displays, digital engine instruments, a new flight management system, autopilot, terrain awareness and warning system and other digital upgrades that should make the aircraft safer and easier to fly.

“This is much larger than just a software or hardware upgrade,” Maj. Jacob Duede, an experimental test pilot with the 417th Flight Test Squadron, said in an Oct. 17 press release. “It’s reconstructing and modernizing the aircraft’s entire cockpit area.”

An old workhorse, the C-130H has been in service since 1965, though the average age of today’s fleet is about 30 years. The Active-Duty Air Force has switched entirely to the newer C-130J Super Hercules, but the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve Command still fly more than 100 of the H models, and in recent years, the Air Force has upgraded several dozen H models with new propellers, better radios, navigation systems, and voice and flight data recorders. 

c-130h
The newly all digital C-130H cockpit sits ready for its next test flight at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., Sept. 29, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Samuel King Jr.

Those upgrades made up Avionics Modernization Program (AMP) Increment One, but more changes are on the way with AMP Increment Two, which the pilots at Eglin have been testing out since August. At least 23 Air Force Reserve and 54 Air National Guard H models will receive the second upgrade over the next five years for about $7 million per aircraft, the release stated.

Among the changes, a new flight management system should help pilots save time and reduce the chance of errors when uploading route information.

“Aircrew essentially had to print the directions before flying and then type the information in using latitude and longitude or use ground-based navigation aids,” Duede said about the old systems. “This new mod is the newest GPS navigation with a by-name search function and autopilot, all built into the aircraft.”

Instead of taking minutes to enter new latitude and longitude coordinates from a tablet or laptop into the aircraft computer, pilots flying the upgraded H can just point and click their new destination on a glass display in less than 30 seconds.

“The new process is as quick as the first step of the old process,” Duede said. “You just identify the point on the moving map, grab it, and execute the flight plan.”

There is also a significant safety upgrade in the form of the Integrated Terrain Awareness and Warning System, which detects when the aircraft is coming too close to the ground and warns the crew while they still have time to course correct. The new system is built into the aircraft, rather than being carried aboard tablets and laptops as is the case today.

A new terrain awareness and warning system could be useful for many C-130 missions that involve flying close to the ground, such as aerial firefighting, aerial spraying, and low-altitude airdrops. 

c-130
A C-130 Hercules aircraft assigned to the 153rd Airlift Wing, Wyoming Air National Guard, comes in for a landing at the Jeffco Airtanker base, Colorado for annual Modular Airborne Fire System training May 13, 2021. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Jon Alderman)

Only three of the H model’s original analog gauges will survive AMP Increment Two, which will include six multifunction displays. Such a transition affects flight deck workflow, where aircrew must quickly scan instruments to perform complicated procedures like aerial refueling or landing at night in bad weather. The big change called for a thorough testing process.

“This is an entirely new system,” Caleb Reeves, a test engineer who helped design the test plan for the 417th FLTS, said in the release. “Everything we’re testing here is being done for the first time ever in this aircraft. We’re also examining if these untried systems perform in the ways we thought they would or not. That data allows us to adjust our testing and provide feedback to the manufacturer.”

Some of the tests involve flying at terrain and obstacles to make sure the new warning systems work. The 417th will complete developmental testing for the first H model to receive the Increment Two upgrade by the end of the year before sending it to the Air National Guard/Air Force Reserve Command Test Center in Little Rock, Ark., for operational testing. Developmental testing gauges the performance of new systems, while operational testing does so under realistic operating environments

Pilots from Little Rock augmented Eglin crews during developmental testing so that they are better prepared for the upgraded H arrival. More C-130s are expected to begin developmental testing at Eglin later this month.

Airpower Expert: Israel Not Hamstrung by Human Shields in Gaza

Airpower Expert: Israel Not Hamstrung by Human Shields in Gaza

Israel can use its airpower against Hamas despite the use of “human shields,” so long as the attacking forces make reasonable efforts to minimize casualties and ensure that the attack is proportional and the aimpoints are legitimate military targets, according to airpower theorist and practitioner, retired USAF Lt. Gen. David Deptula.

Deptula, who oversaw allied targeting in Operation Desert Storm and is now dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, also commented on the broader strategic implications of the fresh conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Israeli aircraft have pounded the Gaza region in recent days with air strikes, and Deptula argued that such strikes against Hamas centers of gravity—like command centers, munitions factories and weapon depots that Hamas has located under schools, hospitals, and mosques—are legitimate targets under the Geneva Conventions. Furthermore, Deptula cited the Rome Statute of 1998, which states that non-state actors, such as terrorist groups, can be culpable for war crimes.

“It’s important to understand that Hamas’ use of civilians as human shields is … illegal in accordance with the Geneva Conventions, as well as the laws of armed conflict, and they fall into the category of war crimes,” Deptula said. Retaliatory attacks against civilian-ringed Hamas targets is permissible, “if the potential damage to civilians is not excessive, in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.”

“At the same time, it’s important to note that even if Hamas uses human shields, Israel is still bound by the principle of proportionality in exercising all these precautions to minimize harm to civilians,” Deptula said. “They have a very strong history of doing that. But that does not mean that they cannot strike targets because of the presence of those human shields.”

Expected civilian losses “must be weighed against the military advantage anticipated if the military objective is achieved,” Deptula said.

As Israel’s counterattack against Hamas takes shape, the public must understand the laws of armed conflict and how Hamas has violated them, Deptula said.

In an Oct. 16 press briefing, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh was asked whether the U.S. is requiring Israel to explain or document how it is using American-supplied weapons, or whether the U.S. is concerned that Israel will use the weapons disproportionately or vindictively in reprisal for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks that killed hundreds of civilians.

“We expect Israel to uphold the laws of war. They are a professional military, a democracy that we hold to a very high standard, and we expect them to do the same,” Singh said.

Strategic Implications

The war in Gaza highlights the need for the U.S. to “retool” its national military strategy, Deptula said, arguing that the Pentagon “needs to go back to force-sizing based on a two-major-regional war” construct.

“While we have the most impressive military personnel in the world, our military today is simply not sized or equipped to succeed in even one major regional war, much less two,” he said. “ … So we better get our act together,” he said.

Deptula linked Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine with the Israel-Hamas conflict, saying in both cases adversaries took action “because they see a weak United States military, which lacks the will to employ force and even when it does, the forces are “insufficient … in capacity.”

The two conflicts are also tied together, Deptula argued, because a war in Israel benefits Russia by creating a second demand on U.S. munitions, already challenged by supplying Ukraine.

It also gives Russia an opportunity to “conduct information operations that will just feed those unfortunate narratives” that somehow Ukraine or Israel are the aggressors, and the U.S. should withhold its support for Ukraine and Israel, Deptula added.

Meanwhile, China is “certainly … considering a move on Taiwan at this time,” while the U.S. is logistically committed to two other wars, Deptula asserted.

The key to deterring China—as well as other potential adversaries like the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon—is to “get them to understand the willingness of the United States to actually use force if in fact, aggression is perpetrated by … any of those entities,” Deptula said.

Hezbollah, in particular, must understand and believe the U.S. will strike if it attempts to open a second front with Israel.

“There cannot be any invisible red lines,” Deptula said. Deterrence requires an unambiguous and undoubted threat of force, and must go well beyond simply saying, “‘Don’t.’”

The U.S. must also go beyond simple messaging like landing B-52 bombers in South Korea or dispatching carrier strike groups to the Mediterranean, Deptula said.

“Our national leaders must meet the moment and realize that there is a severe cost for prioritizing politics over national security,” he said.

“Our leadership has got to pass a federal budget so the Defense Department can be funded” to address the “new complexities” of the geopolitical situation, and at a level “more than just the funds that we spent last year,” Deptula said. “A [continuing resolution] puts a halt on new starts and all kinds of things that we need to do, and that inhibits our ability to assist Ukraine and Israel with the military equipment that they need to survive.”

On top of that, “we’ve got to get to a common vision to get past the impasse in getting a Speaker of the House Representatives,” Deptula said, as the current situation sends a message of indecisiveness and division that plays to the advantage of world adversaries.

Moreover, “the U.S. military today struggles to meet the demands in one theater, let alone four,” meaning Europe, the Middle East, the Pacific, and the homeland, he said. National security “needs to become a talking point on the campaign train,” he said. “The world’s on fire, and the United States is woefully underprepared, and that demands a national conversation.”