Kendall: ‘Unthinkable’ That Congress Could Fail to Pass Budget, Ukraine Aid

Feb. 15, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

AURORA, Colo.—Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said Feb. 14 that Congress’s inability to enact critical government funding and national security legislation is “unthinkable” because it will delay military modernization at a pivotal time.

“These are historic times with a lot at stake on the table, both for our military and our continuous strategic competition as well as for the conflicts that are currently happening,” Kendall said. “It’s impossible to overstate the importance of doing these things.”

In the absence of a fiscal 2024 budget, the Pentagon has been operating under continuing resolutions, which largely keep spending frozen at the previous year’s levels and preclude new starts, though there have been carveouts for investments in America’s chronically delayed submarine construction.

CRs are designed as a short-term mechanism to prevent government shutdowns but have become commonplace amid Washington’s increased political infighting over the past decade or so.

The stopgap measure the government is operating under is “truly devastating” Kendall said in the closing session of the AFA Warfare Symposium.

According to a Department of the Air Force briefing document, a yearlong CR would represent an estimated eight percent cut in its budget absent inflation, reducing the Department of the Air Force’s buying power by nearly $13 billion. The DOD has already been operating under continuing resolutions since the start of fiscal 2024 on Oct. 1, four and a half months ago.

Meanwhile, a national security supplemental bill is also stalled on Capitol Hill. It contains $95 billion to fund military aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funds to pay for U.S. military operations in the Middle East after an uptick in attacks by Iranian-backed groups since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The bill passed the Senate, but House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is balking at bringing the measure to the floor as lawmakers wrangle over budget priorities.

“The idea that we could fail in preventing Russian aggression from succeeding, I think is really almost unthinkable to me,” Kendall said. “That we could not be as prepared as we possibly can be to meet our pacing challenge is equally unthinkable. We’ve got to get these resources. Most of my life, we were united politically about our threats and what we needed to do about them.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III also underscored his concern in a Feb. 13 statement on the two bills.

“Top Ukrainian defense officials have already warned us that their units no longer have the stores of ammunition that they need to hold off Putin’s invading forces,” Austin said in a statement. “I also call upon Congress to pass a full-year appropriation. Failure to fund the Defense Department in line with the annual defense bill would have serious consequences for America’s security, economy, global standing, and democracy.”

But perhaps the starkest warning came from the outgoing head of Air Combat Command, Gen. Mark Kelly.

Kelly said during a panel session on global threats Feb. 13 that China is serious about building up its military to pursue its foreign policy objectives, while Russia is too—without delay.

“If you look at Russia, they’re pretty serious about their war fight,” Kelly said. “If you look at Ukraine, they’re pretty serious about their war fight for existential purposes. If you look at what Iran is doing, they’re pretty serious about their war fight. And zero of those nations operate under a continuing resolution.”

Lockheed Anticipates Stable F-35 Production for Next Five Years

Feb. 15, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

AURORA, Colo.—Lockheed Martin expects that F-35 production will remain at about 156 aircraft per year through 2028, based on U.S. military services plans and the expected international market, according to company aeronautics executive vice president Greg Ulmer.

In an interview at the AFA Warfare Symposium, Ulmer said he foresees the 156 rate continuing “five-plus years into the future,” taking into account the recent international sales and interest, and U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps plans, which don’t call for a major increase in purchases.

Lockheed has done studies to assess what it would take to boost the rate—which would require more tooling, facilities and workforce—and provided that information to the F-35 Joint Program Office, but there’s been “no demand signal” to produce the jets faster, Ulmer said. The company has discouraged the Pentagon from fluctuating the rate of its requests, which would require a cycle of adding and laying off workforce or disrupting the regular flow of parts and materiel.

Deliveries of F-35s are on hold while testing continues with the Tech Refresh-3 hardware and software package, on which the Block 4 upgrade depends.

“Over the last few months, we began testing on the next software release for TR-3 both at [Patuxent River Naval Air Station, Md.] and Edwards Air Force Base,” Ulmer said. “We’re seeing improved performance with the TR-3,” with improved stability and “significant” new weapons capability, he said.

“We’re actually flying, now, the TR-3 software for production aircraft in Fort Worth,” he noted. “We’ve got 20 production flights under our belt, as we begin the acceptance process in Fort Worth, with the new software version entering production … this month.”

“I can’t tell you when we will close on the testing and … certification of TR-3. My belief is, it’ll be sometime this summer,” he added.

While testing is underway, jets produced with the TR-3 package are being stored until testing is complete, but Ulmer declined to say how many F-35s are being stored or where they are for security reasons. Government officials have pegged the number at about 60 airplanes.

Ulmer acknowledged that discussions are underway with the JPO that could allow the fighters to be delivered with something short of the fully-vetted hardware and software package, but he would not forecast a result.

“We’re working with the Joint Program Office to define what the deliverable key release will be, but I’m not going to get into specifics,” he said. “That’s for the JPO to decide and we’ll align to that requirement.”

He also declined to forecast when a deal will be struck on the next two production lots of F-35s. Lockheed submitted its proposal last fall, but discussions continue, he said. Ulmer has previously said the long streak of F-35 price decreases will likely end with the next lots, due to inflation and the greater complexity and capability in the new aircraft.

In the last few months, the Czech Republic ordered 24 F-35s; South Korea ordered an additional 20, and Israel has said it will add a third squadron of 25 jets.

CMSAF Bass Pushes For First Targeted Pay Raise In 17 Years

Feb. 14, 2024 | By David Roza

AURORA, Colo.—The top enlisted leaders of the Air Force and Space Force reiterated calls for a broader reform of the military pay tables which lay out compensation for service members. While basic pay increases each calendar year, the charts that help guide those bumps are in need of an update, the senior leaders agreed.

“We haven’t had a targeted pay raise to our pay chart since 2007,” Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne Bass said Feb. 14 at the AFA Warfare Symposium. “We have the most educated, talented enlisted force in history. It is about time for a targeted pay raise.”

Bass’ counterpart, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force John Bentivegna, held a similar view.

“When you’re looking at the pay and compensation model and you do the analysis, the measuring stick we’re using … has to be reevaluated based on where we are today,” he said.

The senior enlisted advisors (SEAs) made their remarks in a panel discussion on the enlisted force about two weeks after they testified before a House Armed Services Committee hearing on quality of life for service members, where their counterparts across the military joined in the call for pay reform.

“I think all the SEAs are pretty much right in lockstep about pay and compensation,” Bentivegna said Feb. 14. “The talent that we’re recruiting today on the enlisted side across all the services far exceeds what we’ve seen in history. But beyond that, what we’re asking them to do far exceeds anything we’ve asked them to do before.”

Targeted pay raises focus on pay increases for personnel in specific ranks. Experts say a pay raise focused on junior enlisted troops would help them keep pace with the economy.

“Cost of living has been rising steadily in recent years, and many troops are finding it increasingly difficult to afford housing, food, and other basic necessities,” wrote the Military Officers Association of America in June.

Pay and compensation has been a key issue for Bass heading into her last few weeks as CMSAF. In a Jan. 4 discussion with the Air & Space Forces Association, she said the military pay chart “really hasn’t evolved since 1949.”

Her comments came about halfway through the two-year 14th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, where the Department of Defense checks to make sure service members’ pay, benefits, and allowances are keeping up with socioeconomic changes.

“Today’s military family looks different than it did 30 years ago,” Bass said. “You have more dual-working parents, more dual-military parents, more single parents.”

Simultaneously, more civilian organizations offer benefits and better wages, which prompts the services to compete for talent. One key military benefit is basic allowance for housing (BAH), which Bentivegna said is in serious need of a refresh. As housing costs surged in recent years, annual BAH increases and the standards used to set BAH at each pay grade have struggled to keep up.

“Ninety-nine percent of you would not be compensated for a single family home,” he said Feb. 14. “Is that model that we’re looking at just a little outdated?”

Bass acknowledged that service is “by and large a calling” and that military members are for the most part well-compensated, but “we’ve got to figure out a different, more modern model, because civilian organizations are offering great compensation packages where 10 years ago they weren’t.”

Both Bass and Bentivegna said they were encouraged by the enthusiasm that members of Congress showed for helping better compensate service members, but the prospect of a continuing resolution casts a shadow on the prospect of future changes.

“We’re making great strides, but we talked about the need for stability in our funding,” Bentivegna said. “There are things we want to get after, but when we can’t execute what we plan for, then we fall behind.”

SDA Launches Missile Tracking Satellites; All of ‘Tranche 0’ Now in Orbit

Feb. 14, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The first batch of the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 0 spacecraft are all in orbit, a total of 27 satellites launched into low-Earth orbit within 42 months after the contract award.

The last four of those missile warning/missile tracking satellites launched successfully into Space, along with two Missile Defense Agency satellites, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.

Of the 27 satellites in Tranche 0, 19 perform data transport and communications, while eight do missile warning. One additional satellite remains on the ground as a testbed.

SDA and MDA worked together on the launch, because the MDA’s two Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor satellites are closely related to SDA’s “Tracking Layer” for missile warning and tracking.

“Launching our Tracking satellites into the same orbit with the MDA … satellites is a win for both agencies,” SDA director Derek Tournier said in a statement. “We’ll be able to look at test targets from the same orbit at the same time, so that we can see how the two sensors work together.

Sensors based on the MDA satellite design will be incorporated into later tranches of the SDA constellation, Tournear added.

Tranche 0 was designed to be a “warfighter immersion” tranche, giving service members the opportunity to work with the systems, understand their capabilities, and to develop operational concepts for their use.

SDA has already announced it has connected with the satellites using the Link 16 data network, a first in space, and the first missile warning satellites launched in April 2023 have captured initial imagery.

Now senior SDA officials say they’ll look to get the satellites involved in real-world Pentagon exercises to show off what they can do.

“We’re looking for opportunities to engage in demonstrations today with the capabilities that we have available,” a senior SDA official said. “It won’t be a firm deadline where we say, now the satellites can be turned over for demonstrations. We’ll participate in any warfighter activities we can at this point moving forward.”

For the Tracking satellites in particular, “it’s just a matter of the launch windows coinciding with our satellites to be able to image those,” the official said. “So we are actively working with all of our partners to be able to schedule those demos, and you’ll see those over the coming months here.”

Tranche 0 survived multiple launches en route to its full deployment, and at least one data transport satellite experienced problems due to a defect. But the overall program has been deemed a success, proving the concept for rapidly awarding contracts, acquiring satellites, and launching them on a much faster timeline than traditional space acquisition programs.

Leaders say the PWSA is also desperately needed to boost the Space Force’s resilience on orbit. By placing hundreds of satellites in low-Earth orbit, the thinking goes, the U.S. can withstand the loss of a few satellites and keep its needed space capabilities—thus discouraging adversaries from trying to destroy any of them in the first place.

The PWSA’s scale will expand dramatically in Tranche 1, set to start launching in September of this year. SDA has awarded contracts for 126 Transport Layer satellites, 35 Tracking satellites, and 12 tactical demonstration satellites. Tranche 1 will be the first “operational” batch of satellites SDA launches.

Kendall’s Message to Airmen and Guardians on Re-Optimization: ‘Don’t Sit Still’

Feb. 14, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

AURORA, Colo.—The Department of the Air Force is launching a sweeping effort to “re-optimize for great power competition,” with new commands, offices, and processes, in one of the largest reorganizations in the Air Force’s history.

But for tens of thousands of Airmen and Guardians around the world, the most noticeable changes will come down to a focus on readiness, something Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall urged service members to make part of their day-to-day job in his parting message from the AFA Warfare Symposium on Feb. 14.

“You don’t need to wait for somebody tell you what to do about readiness. … Start thinking now about, what do we need to do to be more ready, and then do it,” Kendall said. “You don’t need to wait for that. The conflict can happen at any time and we need to be as ready for it as we possibly can.”

Many of the changes announced at the symposium “won’t happen overnight,” Kendall added. “But I think it’s going to happen reasonably quickly. We’re going to orient our operational units on being ready for the fight.”

That will include a change in how the Air Force and Space Force package forces together for deployments, or its “units of action,” as the service chiefs outlined Feb. 12.

“We’re going to be making some changes to how units are set up, so that all the things that units need to be able to deploy, if they’re deploying units, that they have, and that those units can train together,” Kendall said. “For the units that are deployed in place, we’re going to do the same sort of thing.”

Airmen and Guardians will also see the focus of their training change, Kendall hinted, once again to be focused on readiness for a potential conflict near peer adversary such as China or Russia.

“In general, I think you’re going to see your training oriented more on the things you’re going to need to be effective in great power competition,” he said.

Other changes will be smaller or are meant to be less disruptive to service members’ lives. The much-discussed warrant officer program and new technical career tracks will be tailored for specific communities. The new commands and offices being established will mainly draw upon existing units and capabilities.

“We’re going to minimize people having to move and we’re going to try to minimize costs, but we’ve got to move out pretty quickly on all those as well,” Kendall added.

More broadly, though, Kendall made it clear that he wants to drive a mindset shift across the Air Force and Space Force that the possibility of great power conflict is very real, and everyone needs to get ready.

“Buckle your seatbelt. Don’t sit still. Go ahead and move forward,” Kendall said. “Don’t wait for guidance on this. … We don’t have any time to waste.”

To shape and inform the changes he and other leaders were planning, Kendall traveled to Air Force and Space Force installations around the globe and interacted with Airmen and Guardians. Many “have their head in the game” and are ready for the challenge, he said.

“I think we’ve got all the raw material we need to make the changes that we talked about and prepare ourselves,” Kendall said. “And, frankly, it’s all about deterrence. We don’t want a war, and if we’re really ready and the Chinese understand that, we’re not going to have one.”

PACAF, Allies Plan for More Complex, Large-Scale Exercises in the Indo-Pacific

Feb. 14, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

AURORA, Colo.—As part of its re-optimization effort, the Air Force is planning to implement more large-scale exercises to improve readiness. And that will start with a major one next year in the Indo-Pacific, leaders said at the AFA Warfare Symposium.

“We’re targeting fiscal year 2025 for the first sort of run at a large multi-combatant command supported [exercise] … and we’re looking to do that in conjunction with a single AOR targeted at INDOPACOM,” Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin said Feb. 12.

For the new commander of Pacific Air Forces, Gen. Kevin B. Schneider, it will be an especially major undertaking.

“I’m encouraged that the Department of the Air Force identified that, is committing resources to make that happen,” Schneider told reporters. “To do something with this scope, with this scale that we envision, it will take the weight of the Department of the Air Force and the resources.”

Such an exercise will be crucial in testing and preparing PACAF for the possibility of conflict with the likes of China, Schneider added.

“When I look at crisis, conflict, and contingencies … there’ll be a huge demand for INDOPACOM as the warfighter, and PACAF as the component,” Schneider said. “And the rest of the joint force will have tremendous demand back to our services for resources, equipment, personnel, capabilities.”

Gen. Kevin Schneider, Pacific Air Forces commander, renders the first salute to PACAF Airmen after taking command from Gen. Ken Wilsbach during a change of command ceremony on Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, Feb. 9, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Jimmie D. Pike

While such exercises are “not always inexpensive endeavors,” Schneider stressed their importance for deterrence. And his chief of staff Col. David Berkland later indicated in a panel discussion that the 2025 exercise will not be a one-off event.

“We’re going to start to build up to more complex, kind of high order of magnitude-type exercises,” Berkland said. “So, you might not be able to count as many happening throughout the year, but the ones that we do are going to be bigger, more intense, and more valuable, I think, for getting us to maintain that level of overmatch at the high end of combat.”

Larger exercises could also help foster broader multilateral alliances as commanders and troops spend longer periods working more closely together. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest from nations worldwide in contributing to these missions. The U.K.’s Royal Air Force joined a PACAF exercise in December, marking its first participation in that event. Canada has also unveiled its Indo-Pacific strategy, and other countries like Australia, Singapore, and France have likewise demonstrated a growing commitment by participating in multilateral exercises in the region recently.

South Korea and Japan have also played pivotal roles in these exercises. Following last year’s trilateral agreement at Camp David between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, the three nations have upped their collaboration through a series of multi-domain exercises.

“This kind of effort is vitally important for us,” said Col. Kimotoshi Sugiyama, commander of Space Operations Group for the Japan Air Self Defense Forces. “We’re headed in the right direction.”

The close cooperation comes in the face of increasing aggression from China. President Xi Jinping continues to say he will push to “unify” Taiwan and China, with many fearing conflict as a result. Meanwhile, Beijing has invested heavily in nuclear weapons, space, and other military technologies and at times curtailed military-to-military communications.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has also conducted more and more aggressive and unprofessional intercepts of U.S. and allied aircraft in the region.

“Our pilots and our air crews are going to continue to do what they’ve done all along, and that is to conduct themselves professionally, safely, and do everything we can to prevent a dangerous escalation from occurring over international airspace,” Berkland said.

On top of all that is the escalating threat of North Korea. Col. Jong-seo Park, the South Korean embassy’s air attaché, pointed to Pyongyang’s expanding nuclear and conventional capabilities and its deepening ties with Russia as causes for concern.

“Russia and North Korea, their ties are being strengthened,” Park said. “North Korea provided military support on ballistic missiles and the drones, and any kind of artillery shells and in return, Russia is providing the military and economic capabilities (to Pyongyang).”

However, Schneider said ties between China, Russia, and North Korea will never match the level of deepening and broadening partnerships the U.S. is fostering with its allies in the Pacific.

“Those relationships, alliances, and partnerships can only be envied in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang and they could never replicate anything near that,” Schneider said. “Our ability to come together as teams, and work together as teams for a purpose, is an amazing strength and one that we continue to enjoy. That’s why my predecessors and I pay tremendous focus into maintaining the building and increasing the capability of our alliances and relationships at all levels.”

‘Hours Rather Than Days’: USSF Wants to Go Even Faster with Responsive Space

Feb. 13, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

AURORA, Colo.—Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman has rarely missed a chance in recent months to highlight the Space Force’s “Victus Nox” mission that procured and launched a satellite in record-breaking time. During his “State of the Space Force” keynote address at the AFA Warfare Symposium, he did so again, noting with pride that the satellite went from a warehouse to in orbit in just five days in September 2023.

Later Saltzman told reporters he wants to go even faster for the next mission, dubbed “Victus Haze,” which is planned for 2025.

“I still think we have margin in the schedule,” Saltzman said Feb. 13. “And so in Victus Haze, we’re going to set some standards that say nope, we’ve got to compress this more. Five days from warehouse to on-orbit operations is pretty fast. But in the grand scheme of things, when you’re moving at 17,500 miles per hour, five days is still a long time, and a lot can happen in five days. And so I’m going to be pressing the team to continue to reduce that critical path down to hours and hours and hours, rather than days.”

Finding ways to compress timelines for future launches is all part of the Space Force’s plans for what it calls “tactically responsive space.” And multiple Space Force leaders indicated they are eager to push forward after the success of Victus Nox and prepare for a future where the service can respond at a moment’s notice.

“This is a very cost-effective way and rapid reaction capability for us to be able to respond to the combat command,” Lt. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear, said during a panel discussion.

It could also be a pivotal capability for the service as it goes through a yearslong pivot toward proliferation—launching hundreds of smaller satellites across different orbits—added Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Schiess, head of Space Forces-Space, the USSF’s component within U.S. Space Command.

“Say we’re not in a proliferated architecture yet, and something is taken out or we have a failure or something like that,” Schiess said. “This gives us the ability to go out, put something together and put it on orbit and maybe get a capability way back faster than we could.”

An image from video shows payload deployment as Firefly Aerospace successfully launched the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS NOX mission with 24-hour notice, demonstrating a critical capability for the United States to rapidly respond to on-orbit needs during a conflict or in response to a national security threat. **Firefly Aerospace**

On top of that, Schiess noted, it would give commanders more options for responding to new developments and threats from adversaries.

“Here’s our capability to get after that and get something up there as fast as possible, not wait around until we find out what it is from other sources,” Schiess said.

Already, Schiess later told reporters, he has spoken with Lt. Gen. Philip A. Garrant, the new head of Space Systems Command, on the process for operationalizing tactically responsive space—what is likely to be a complex undertaking that will involve identifying specific needs and figuring out proper channels of communication and command and control.

The process is still in its early stages, Schiess said, but Victus Haze will provide valuable “reps and sets” for the Space Force to practice the concept after the initial success of Victus Nox. In particular, Saltzman and Burt stressed the importance of reviewing processes to eliminate downtime across the board.

“We learned lessons when the weather delayed the launch for a certain time, there was lightning in the area, it delayed the launch,” Saltzman said of Victus Nox. “What can we do in terms of serial processing to take advantage of that delay, so that we could more rapidly check out the system when it’s on orbit?”

The Space Force and its partner for Victus Haze, the Defense Innovation Unit, have yet to announce any contracts, but Saltzman said in his keynote address that he expects the launch to happen next year.

The concept of responsive space has been around for years, noted retired Gen. Kevin P. Chilton of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. But it has gained momentum in recent years—highlighted by Victus Nox—in part because of the growth in launch providers and falling launch costs, making such missions more cost-effective.

It’s also a capability that China may seek to develop, warned Maj. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, deputy chief of space operations for intelligence.

“The conditions are right inside our U.S. industrial base in order to make this concept a reality today, and we kind of did act one and proved it. Let me give you all a moment of caution that conditions may be ripe for the Beijing environment to be able to do that as well,” said Gagnon, who noted that China has sought to capitalize on the collapse of Russia’s space launch market to build up its own capabilities.

All Options on the Table to Cover $35 Billion Gap on Sentinel ICBM

Feb. 13, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

AURORA, Colo.—The Air Force isn’t sure yet how it will fill the $35 billion gap between what the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile was supposed to cost and the recently revised estimate, but no approach is yet being ruled out, senior service leaders told reporters at the AFA Warfare Symposium.

“I can’t take anything off the table right now,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said of how to fund the overrun on Sentinel, which came to light in January when the Air Force notified Congress of a Nunn-McCurdy breach on the program. Under the Nunn-McCurdy Act, the Pentagon must inform lawmakers if a program incurs a cost or schedule overrun of more than 15 percent—Sentinel experienced both.

Kendall said he thinks the Air Force has a good handle on the amount of the overrun—37 percent over the $96 billion baseline cost of the program—and that the delay is likely to be about two years.

Asked where the Air Force will find the money—the $35 billion gap is comparable to the service’s entire procurement budget request for fiscal 2024—Kendall said it would not be funded from elsewhere in the strategic modernization portfolio.

“It’s a discussion we haven’t had,” but one which will have to happen soon, and outside the “normal deliberative process about formulating the overall budget for DOD,” Kendall said.

The tradeoffs may not be direct, he said, and if the Air Force has to fund it out of expected budgets, “that will limit the amount of money we have for everything else.” He said he hoped it could be found from the larger Pentagon pool of funds.

“It’s of strategic importance. And I think … it would be very difficult to pay for out of just the Air Force’s budget. So I think we’re going to take a look at the totality of the budget,” Kendall said.

When a Nunn-McCurdy breach occurs, the program can only continue if the Secretary of Defense certifies that it is critical and that no alternative exists. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III is expected to make such a certification.

Air Force officials have said privately the service may ask Congress for a special appropriation, given that the service bears the expense of two of the three legs of the nuclear triad and has had to trade off tactical programs in the past to cover nuclear expenses that the Army and Marine Corps do not have.

The military services have at times turned to cuts in readiness or personnel to pay for large programs that have gone over budget but were still deemed crucial.

There’s no alternative to the Sentinel or anything else in the Air Force’s nuclear modernization program, Kendall said. He specifically said there can be no cuts to the B-21, but he did not mention the nuclear Long Range Stand-Off missile, which will initially equip the B-52 and later the B-21.

“The primacy of the mission I think, says a lot,” Kendall said, adding the Sentinel is “essential.”

Kristyn Jones, acting Air Force undersecretary, said the “missile aspect of the program is not where we’re seeing a sizable amount of cost. It’s primarily in the civil works aspects of the program,” meaning the construction of new silos, launch control capsules, and rights-of-way for cabling and other ground elements.

Jones said the Sentinel civil engineering effort is larger even than the “Big Dig” in Boston; an infamous 16-year, $7.4 billion highway relocation in the downtown area involving large tunnels and massive re-routing of utilities.

Air Force acquisition executive Andre Hunter has noted that the service hasn’t attempted a project on the scale of the Sentinel in over 50 years—when the Minuteman ICBM was deployed—and the full scope of the project couldn’t be known until an assessment was made of the existing facilities.

The Sentinel program replaces much of the Minuteman ground infrastructure as well as the nuclear command and control system, which is still based on analog circuitry.

Jones noted that in initial program estimates, it was assumed that some elements of the Minuteman infrastructure could be re-used for Sentinel, “but now it looks like they can’t.” Inflation, supply chain issues, and labor costs have also contributed to the Sentinel overrun, Jones said.

The Pentagon is conducting an assessment of the Sentinel program to nail down the root causes of the overages, as required by law.

Kendall, having performed work for Sentinel prime contractor Northrop Grumman, is recused from making programmatic decisions about Northrop programs like Sentinel or B-21. Those decisions will fall to the undersecretary or Hunter, but Kendall will still be in charge of deciding where to find budget offsets.

Air Force Is Hitting 2024 Monthly Recruiting Goals, But Threat of CR Looms Large

Feb. 13, 2024 | By David Roza

AURORA, Colo.—The head of the Air Force Recruiting Service remains “cautiously optimistic” about hitting his recruiting goals for fiscal 2024 year, armed with positive data from the first five months.

AFRS is at just over 100 percent of its requirement at this point for the Active-Duty force, close to it for the reserves, and at goal for the Space Force, with a sizable number of recruits in the delayed entry pool (DEP) who will enter service over the coming months.

“We are currently almost completed with bookings in February and March and we’re booking well into April,” Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein told reporters Feb. 13 at the AFA Warfare Symposium. “So right now, we’re not seeing the edge of the cliff.”

However, trouble could be on the horizon if Congress relies on continuing resolutions (CR) instead of passing a larger spending bill. Recruiting ads and outreach efforts cost money, Amrhein explained, and meeting requirements will be much more difficult if AFRS cannot sustain its presence on social media and television and in classrooms and community spaces.

“Bottom line, when a CR is in effect, our recruiting, outreach, and advertising mission suffers,” he said. “Additionally, a CR or, even worse, sequestration efforts would directly limit our ability to execute our recruiting operations.”

Under the Fiscal Responsibility Act passed in June 2023, if a CR is still in effect on April 30, the entire federal government will see funding slashed across the board to the tune of billions of dollars, according to the Congressional Research Service. The latest CR expires in early March, and Congress has been slow to agree on a larger budget.

If funding can be sustained, though, the future appears to be looking up for AFRS, which in fiscal 2023 missed its goal of 26,877 Air Force recruits by about 10 percent, the first time it missed its goal in 24 years. A heroic effort by recruiters in the summer of 2023 built up a strong delayed entry pool that AFRS continued to build on in the months since.

Efforts to widen the pool of eligible recruits—such as allowing small neck and hand tattoos; aligning body fat composition rules with Defense Department Standards; and giving qualified applicants a chance to retest if they test positive for marijuana use—have also helped. New incentives such as reinstating the enlisted college loan repayment program, streamlining the naturalization process for trainees to become citizens at the end of Basic Military Training, and increasing enlistment bonuses played a significant role too.

Just as important, Amrhein noted that recruiters are finally rebuilding the relationships with schools and communities, relationships which degraded during the years of isolation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

air force recruiting — Airman Leadership School class members address recruits from the 338th Recruiting Squadron about what their future will look like in the Air Force and what to expect during the group’s visit to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, Jan. 10, 2024 (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman James Johnson)

But there is still one major impediment that could be turning away thousands of qualified recruits: the medical assessment process, where recruits often have to wait months to find out if they meet the military’s health requirements for accession.

“One otherwise healthy applicant had to wait an extra two months to enlist while she proved that a childhood wrist sprain was not a disqualifying medical condition,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on personnel, said at a Dec. 6 hearing where the heads of each military branch’s recruiting service testified.

“Now obviously we want a screening process that catches disqualifying medical conditions, but … [is it] creating unnecessary barriers to enrollment?” she asked.

Warren called on each service to track why applicants leave the accessions process before signing the dotted line, and AFRS appears to have initial data. At the AFA Warfare Symposium, Amrhein shared that 8,800 Air Force applicants walked away due to the long medical review process in fiscal 2023.

AFRS typically approves nearly 70 percent of overall requests for medical waivers, the general said, so that means it lost about 5,600 applicants who likely could have passed if the medical process were faster.

Last year, AFRS hired about 60 contractors to help with the medical paperwork, which should accelerate the process. But part of the problem is MHS Genesis, the medical records program which connects to most civilian health information exchange networks, giving the services a closer look at an applicant’s medical history.

The issue is that the history “is often incomplete or contains insufficient information to make a waiver determination,” the Department of Defense Inspector General found in May, which slows down the process as the services request extra documentation.

“We have to condense [the timeline] to get it back to where it used to be,” Amrhein said. “Prior to MHS Genesis onboarding, it was at least half, if not a third of the time to medically assess someone. If we can continue to work that piece, I think we can garner a great number of folks to join our Air and Space Forces.”