Space Force Spending Too Big Before Proving Laser Comms Works: Watchdog

Feb. 26, 2025 | By David Roza

Editor’s Note: This story was updated Feb. 27 with a statement from the Space Development Agency.

The Space Force is investing heavily in satellite laser communications before fully proving the technology works, the Government Accountability Office warned in a report published Feb. 26.

The service’s Space Development Agency is building a constellation of satellites in low-Earth orbit that will transmit data to each other and to ground and air receivers via laser, which experts say is far faster and more secure than traditional radio frequency systems.

But while SDA has only conducted a few initial trials and not met its originally planned demonstration goals, it has awarded contracts for hundreds of new satellites. That could lead to more delays and costs if SDA needs to adjust its equipment requirements on the fly and contractors have to redo their designs, the government watchdog warned.

“Without demonstrating key laser communications technology capabilities, or [minimum viable products], SDA is risking not being able to leverage past experiences into the investments either under contract or planned for in the future,” GAO wrote. “These investments are substantial—nearly $35 billion.”

SDA’s goal is what it calls the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture: at least 300-500 satellites that provide missile warning and tracking, communication, and navigation services for troops everywhere. But PWSA does not work without laser communications, which can transmit data 10 to 40 times faster than radio frequencies using a beam of light about 1,000 times narrower, which makes it much more difficult for adversaries to intercept.

Lasers will also make possible a mesh network where the rest of the constellation can adapt and reconfigure to route data efficiently even if one or more satellites is disrupted by systems failure or adversary disruption—it’s a key reason officials have called the PWSA the “backbone” of the Pentagon’s combined joint all-domain command and control effort to connect sensors and shooters around the globe within seconds.

But laser communications are difficult: satellites in low-Earth orbit move 17,000 miles per hour, so they have small time windows to find each other, point lasers, and maintain that laser link. Mechanical vibrations can throw off the beam, as can atmospheric conditions during space-to-surface transmissions.

GAO identified eight capabilities that SDA wants from the optical communications terminals that went on Tranche 0—a demonstration tranche—of satellites to form the PWSA. They include establishing links between OCTs built by the same vendor in the same orbital plane, between OCTs built by different vendors in different orbital planes, and linking with ground stations.

Checking off those capabilities will help inform development of more advanced capabilities in later tranches. The problem is that SDA is already investing in the next tranches without checking off the initial capability goals. As of December, GAO found that only two of the four Tranche 0 contractors had demonstrated a total of three of the eight capabilities.

That list grew in January, when York Space Systems announced one of its data transport satellites had established a laser communication link with a missile warning/tracking satellite built by another vendor, SpaceX. But there are still gaps when it comes to demonstrating links from space to ground and between OCTs in different orbital planes.

The stymied progress led SDA to make what GAO called “substantial” changes to its Tranche 0 and Tranche 1 goals, with further changes on the horizon, which could lead to confusion about what standard is most current.

SDA however, said some of the goals identified were “baseline,” while others were more ambitious. The more ambitious goals were dropped.

SDA wants to use a spiral development cycle where a minimum viable product and capability informs the next phase of development, but the agency has not yet demonstrated the minimum capability of a laser-based mesh network planned for Tranche 0, GAO noted.

That hasn’t stopped SDA from awarding contracts for two subsequent tranches worth about $9.5 billion, “inconsistent with the leading practice of demonstrating the MVP before moving to the next Iteration.”

Past government watchdog reports have shown that using immature technologies in defense acquisition programs faced delays and cost overruns.

“While SDA has taken considerable steps to prioritize speed, this has had consequences,” GAO wrote. SDA is also not sufficiently communicating key test schedules or performance information to stakeholders, contractors and test officials told GAO.

The office recommended the SDA demonstrate the minimum viable product for laser communications in space in Tranche 0 and incorporate lessons learned before making launch decisions about Tranche 1 satellites; repeat the process before Tranche 2 and 3; and better communicate test plans, timelines and results to relevant stakeholders.

The Defense Department agreed with GAO’s recommendations, but it insisted SDA had met its revised minimum viable product for Tranche 0, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of developing a proliferated architecture, rather than the capability itself.

“In Tranche 1, SDA is on track to leverage in-plane optical links to operate a fully functional system and continue work toward demonstrating the full range of laser communications to enable delivery of critical warfighting capabilities,” an agency official stated.

Yet the GAO argued that revising the minimum viable product is “at odds with the leading practices for iterative development.”

Pentagon’s No. 2 Civilian Nominee Talks NGAD, Hypersonics, and More

Feb. 25, 2025 | By John A. Tirpak

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or perhaps even President Donald Trump will have the final say on a way forward for the Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter, the nominee to serve as the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said at his confirmation hearing.

Stephen Feinberg, nominated to be Deputy Secretary of Defense, also acknowledged the Air Force’s diminishing capabilities and promised lawmakers he would take a close look at next steps for the service, to include a more robust pursuit of hypersonic weapons and divestment of older aircraft systems.

Feinberg is a billionaire and the co-chief executive of Cerberus Capital Management, a private equity firm which invests in defense contractors.

Asked by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) for his thoughts on a manned sixth-generation fighter—such as NGAD—Feinberg noted that “it’s a controversial issue, and I know there’s views on both sides.

“I want to get in there, if I’m fortunate enough to be confirmed, [and] look at all the classified information,” he added. “And ultimately, that decision could be made by the secretary or the president, even, and I’ll see if I can add some value to it.”

Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall paused the NGAD program last summer for additional analysis, saying it wasn’t clear that the program’s requirements had kept pace with technological change and its affordability was of concern. Eventually Kendall deferred the decision to the new Trump administration, saying it should decide because it would have to live with the choice.

The topic of NGAD came up once again when Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) asked Feinberg if the Trump administration would take steps to reverse the aging and downsizing of the Air Force, noting the service plans to retire hundreds more planes than it will procure in the coming years.

“This will further exacerbate the Air Force’s current state of being the oldest, smallest and least ready, perhaps, in its history,” Peters said. At the same time, Hegseth has asked every Pentagon organization to identify 8 percent in “offsets” to shift money toward Trump administration priorities, and manned fighters were not among the programs exempted from that, while surface ships and submarines were.

“I think it sends a conflicting message on the future of the Air Force fighter planes and missions,” Peters said. ” … Can you help give this committee some reassurance that the leaders at OSD understand the need to continue investment in next-generation tactical fighters so that we can improve readiness and, in the process, surpass our adversaries?”

“It’s a really tough question,” Feinberg replied. “Some believe that we can go straight to full autonomous systems, we don’t need a next generation fighter, and we could use the F-35, updated,” to meet the needs of national strategy.

“Others feel we really need the next-generation fighter, despite its expense and difficulty,” he said, before reiterating that he has not received classified briefings on NGAD or China’s fifth-generation fighter the J-20 and that “ultimately, that might be the secretary’s or the president’s decision.”

Feinberg’s comments throw into sharp relief just how weighty that decision will be. In written testimony, Feinberg repeated that after getting classified briefings, he will pursue “a balanced and affordable plan.”

Big Picture

In his opening statement, Feinberg laid out in broad strokes his views on the Pentagon and the defense industrial base: “We really need to plug these shortages, focus on our priorities, get rid of legacy programs, be very disciplined, and while at the same time focusing on the economics. If we do that, given America’s great innovative capability and entrepreneurship, we will defeat China.”

Pressed by Democratic lawmakers on Hegseth’s 8 percent “offset” and major planned personnel cuts, Feinberg largely demurred, saying many of the personnel reductions are “are still to come” and he does not yet know what role Hegseth will ask him to play in implementing cuts or offsets.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) pressed Feinberg hard for his commitment to nuclear modernization. After he first called the effort “one of our very top priorities,” Fischer pushed him to say “there’s nothing that could be more important than our nuclear modernization.”

“One reason why I hesitated on this: modernization is key. We also need hypersonics. Because if our enemy can carry nuclear capability on things faster than ours, it’s a big problem,” he said.

At a different point in the hearing, Feinberg added that “we have to develop hypersonics. We can’t allow the Chinese to be faster than us, both in their weaponry and aircraft.”

Nuclear modernization, however, is still crucial as the U.S. faces “two peer competitors” in nuclear weapons and that the existing force structure was crafted “before Russia and China modernized, before they expanded their arsenals,” Feinberg said.

In written testimony, Feinberg acknowledged that the Air Force is the “oldest and smallest” it has ever been and argued the solution is to “invest in a family of medium- and long-range penetrating airframes coupled with modern munitions, human-machine teaming, and a hardened warfighting network.”

He said he thinks the Air Force has “taken meaningful steps in that direction,” but there remains the “tension between near-term readiness and readiness for the future fight” due to fiscal realities.

Feinberg also acknowledged in the written testimony that the demands on the Air Force “exceed its capacity to fulfill them.” He said he believes USAF “accepted risk in modernization accounts to fund minimum-essential readiness,” while adversaries are advancing their own capabilities.

Asked if he supports the stated requirement to acquire 72 new fighters for the Air Force annually to maintain force structure, Feinberg said the service needs “a mix of fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft to balance capability and affordability.”

Feinberg also said in oral testimony that “clearly we need to develop autonomy; autonomy in significant numbers, with a centralized command—effectively a brain—and we have to make the right decision on whether we need to build the next generation aircraft where we can rely on autonomy.”

New Report: A $45B ‘Recovery Plan’ for the Department of the Air Force

Feb. 25, 2025 | By Greg Hadley

The “first priority” for President Donald Trump defense team to deliver “peace through strength” should be a major cash infusion to revitalize the Air Force and ensure the Space Force can deliver for all the other military branches, according to a new report from AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

The cost to deliver on that promise: $45 billion, according to retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula and retired Col. Mark A. Gunzinger, who co-authored the study. “We’re providing a recovery plan,” said Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute. “There are a lot of people out there saying, ‘Oh my gosh, we can’t do that. It’s too expensive.’ Well, the only thing more expensive than a first-rate Air Force is a second-rate Air Force.”

Or, as Gunzinger put it, “I’ll tell you something that’s going to be far more costly, and that’s losing a war with China, or God forbid, sometime in the future with Russia.”

Deptula and Gunzinger say those scenarios could be possible if the Air Force is allowed to continue its steady declines and the Space Force is not allowed to grow as is needed to deter war in the future.

New Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has expressed interest in making major shifts in resources, and new leaders in the Pentagon—and in Congress—have urged investing tens of billions of dollars to enhance U.S. military readiness. The report aims to inform those discussions with insight, illustrations, and recommended solutions.

“President Trump has stated that he wants to have ‘Peace through strength,’” said the Mitchell Institute’s Heather Penney, a former F-16 pilot. “These investments are essential to ensuring that our military as a whole—across all the services—is the strongest, most lethal Department of Defense that we’ve had in the last 30 years.”

Penney said the Air Force has been “coasting off a force structure with that was purchased in the 1980s,” and that today’s force, the smallest and oldest in history, now needs a major refresh, with new technology, new equipment, and more investment in day to day readiness. Those comments echo those of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin, who wrote last month that “America needs more Air Force.”

The Space Force’s challenges are different, and not well understood by a public that still isn’t fully cognizant that it has a military branch focused on space. Indeed, Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said in December that the Space Force may need an “advocacy blitz to increase our budget to field timely counter-space capabilities.”

The Mitchell Institute is granular in its detail, laying out detailed recommendations that amount to $43 billion to $47 billion annually in additional spending:

$3-4 billion per year to fully fund the Next-Generation Air Dominance manned fighter

$3.7 billion per year to buy an extra 32 F-35A fighters, bringing the yearly buy to 74 as quickly as possible

$3 billion per year to buy an extra 24 F-15EX fighters, increasing the fleet size to 225 aircraft

$5.2 billion per year to buy 10 extra B-21 bombers, plus $4-5 billion to set up a second B-21 production line and supply chain

$5-8 billion over the next five years to fund the new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, though that funding should be put in a separate “National Nuclear Deterrent Fund”

$4.95 billion per year to ensure combat fighter pilots can fly 200 hours per year

$11.15 billion per year to fully fund the Weapons System Sustainment account to support those flying hours

$1 billion, ramping up to $2 billion, to increase munitions production

$1 billion for air base air and missile defense

$5.12 billion per year from 2028-2032 to fund at least 26 new E-7 Wedgetail aircraft for Airborne Early Warning and Control

$300 million per year in research and development for a new Next-Generation Air Refueling System tanker.

The Space Force needs sustained annual growth, increasing at a proposed rate of 15-18 percent initially, and then tapering to 10-13 percent in ensuing years. By 2030, the service’s budget should be $60 billion, or about double its current size, the report says, recommending:

Raising from $1.5 billion to $5 billion a year USSF investment in advanced space control and counter-space systems

Ramping up from $750 million to $3 billion a year spending on space domain awareness and battle management

Tripling from $1 billion to $3 billion a year investment in space access and launch

Adding $1 billion per year to add military manpower

Initiatating a $250 million-per-year investment into developing capabilities to support operations in the cislunar region

0125_World — A Guardian from the 18th Space Defense Squadron monitors orbital data at Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. **David Dozoretz/USSF**

Deptula and Gunzinger encouraged new Pentagon leaders, along with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, to disrupt conventional military thinking by applying “cost-per-effect” analysis across the services to compare the relative value of investments. This approach shifts the focus from the cost to develop a weapon system, as is traditionally done, to instead consider the cost of accomplish a given mission, such as long-range strike. For example, developing and acquiring a number of long-range missile might cost less than developing and acquring a bomber aircraft in terms of acquisition costs. But when it comes to destroying target sets in a fight with an adversary, those single-use missiles might cost far more than a reusable bomber dropping less costly ordnance.

“Those kinds of cross-capability portfolio, cross-service analyses are not being done by the Department of Defense,” said Gunzinger, a former deputy undersecretary of defense. “Everything is stovepiped.”

The result is service by service direction, he said. “‘Air Force, you want to buy more fighters? What are you going to cut in your fighter force? You want to buy more bombers, what are you going to cut in your bomber force?’ We need to minimize risk across the department as a whole by doing those cross-cutting, cross-service, cross-domain, cost-per-effect analyses.”

The Pentagon’s Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) is already well situated to perform that kind of analysis, Gunzinger said.

Since becoming Defense Secretary, Hegseth has already indicated an interest in realigning funding and changing priorities. In mid-February, he directed the military services and other defense organizations to identify some $50 billion in potential cuts that can be reoriented to Trump administration priorities. Some of those new priorities are clear, such as the “Iron Dome for America” missile defense initiative and the Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, which he specifically exempted from any cuts.

But the administration has held back on other details of the 2026 defense budget request, which is now under review, and will be for weeks to come. Lawmakers in Congress are anxious for their cut at the administration’s plan. How those plans will unfold is still to be determined, but for now, a road map detailing how best to strengthen the Air Force and Space Force offers insight to a defense team trying to make a difference quickly.

“The administration changed. We’re going to have a new Air Force Secretary,” Gunzinger said. “But the threat hasn’t changed.”

Air Force’s 2025 Recruiting Goals ‘All Trending in the Right Direction’

Feb. 25, 2025 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force and Space Force are currently on track to meet their fiscal 2025 recruiting goals, the Department of the Air Force’s top recruiting official said, keeping up a hot streak after several challenging years.

“All components [of the Air Force] and the Space Force are either on or ahead of their curve for where we should be this time in the year,” Brig. Gen. Christopher R. Amrhein, the commander of the Air Force Accessions Center and the Air Force Recruiting Service, told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“Recruiting is on a very solid footing. I think it’s probably a little premature for me to slap the table and say we got ’25, but I will tell you that it’s all trending in the right direction,” he added.

Last September, the Air Force Recruiting Service announced it was increasing its goals for 2025: 32,500 recruits for the Active-Duty Air Force, 7,600 for the Air Force Reserve, 8,679 for the Air National Guard, and 800 for the Space Force.

Amrhein told reporters in September that the Active-Duty component goals were “ambitious.” And that goal was later increased to 33,100 enlisted accessions for the Active component.

“It’s not uncommon to have mid-year increases, but that’s pretty substantial,” he said in a recent interview.

Just a few years ago, the Air Force—along with the other military branches—was in a recruiting slump that saw the service eke out its 2022 goals and miss its Active-Duty goal for the first time in years in 2023.

Over the last 18 months, however, trends have been positive. In fiscal 2024, the Air Force Active-Duty goal was 27,100 recruits, an objective it exceeded when 27,139 new Airmen were shipped to Basic Military Training. Other components also saw gains last year: the Air National Guard saw a 37 percent increase in accessions, for example.

“It’s a mix of training, it’s a mix of being innovative in our outreach and social media, and then it’s also a bit of resourcing,” Amrhein said.

For example, to help boost the number of recruits this year, the service additional 277 extra recruiters, Amrhein said, and that many of these were able to join the ranks at start of this fiscal year on Oct. 1, 2024.

“That’s pretty fast,” Amrhein said. “We’re almost through getting all 277 of them onboarded and out to the field.”

He also credited increased outreach with outside organizations and increased collaboration with the broader Air Force enterprise, which has enabled the recruiters to draw on support from local bases and commands.

“It’s not just community outreach, but it’s synchronized community outreach … not only at the local level, kind of the wing level, but at the [major command] level, and even at the Headquarters Air Force level,” Amrhein said.

Amrhein, as commander of the recently established Air Force Accessions Center and the Air Force Recruiting Service, is in charge of enlisted accessions for both the Air Force and Space Force, as well as Officer Training School and the new Warrant Officer Training School. He also oversees the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC), the service’s largest source of commissioned officers, and the Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps (JROTC), a youth development program that does not incur a military obligation but which many high schoolers go through on their way to joining the Air Force.

“There’s no one silver bullet, but the fact that I think we’ve honed in on the right ingredients, and they’re all working,” Amrhein said. “They’re coming together in an excellent form. Reach and familiarity is still our number one strategic issue to work through: the familiarity of the Air Force and Space Force missions. And now, having ROTC under the command, we can expand that under one unified voice of outreach, one unified voice of the opportunities that are there to serve our nation.”

The Air Force has expanded the number of people in its Delayed Entry Program (DEP), which allows people to enlist in the U.S. military while delaying Active-Duty. More than 13,000 people are in that pipeline, the largest amount since November 2015, according to the service.

“The DEP has been on an upward trend, but it continues to go up, “Amrhein said.

The 800 Space Force recruits for 2025 pales in comparison to the Air Force, but those efforts have had a major impact since there are approximately 9,800 Active-Duty Guardians. While the Air Force Recruiting Service is in charge of Space Force recruiting, Amrhein said it is working on “standing up a dedicated Space Force recruiting element that will grow into a squadron” within the command so Guardians can recruit the next generation of their ranks.

“Right now, they are building out actual Guardian recruiters and I think that there’s a lot of opportunity to also look at, ‘What is the future? How do we do we do talent management for the Space Force any differently?’” Amrhein said.

The Space Force’s smaller recruiting goal shouldn’t bely its importance, he said.

“Yes, it’s smaller in numbers, but if you miss by one, it hurts a lot more, and so we have to keep laser focus on that right now,” Amrhein said.

Get to Know Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, the Air Guardsman Nominated for Joint Chiefs Chair

Feb. 24, 2025 | By John A. Tirpak

Lt. Gen. John Daniel Caine—President Donald Trump’s pick to replace Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—is poised to become the first Air National Guardsman elevated to the nation’s highest uniformed role.

Caine’s Guard status is one of several ways he is an unusual, though not quite unprecedented, pick for CJCS. He is retired, he was never a four-star general, and he never held one of the major roles typically required for Chairman, meaning Trump must grant him a waiver to take on the job.

Still, it seems likely the Senate will approve his nomination and make him the 22nd Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

Unconventional

Under the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986, which reorganized the senior military leadership of the U.S., the Chairman must be a four-star general or admiral selected from among the Vice Chairman, the service chiefs, or the Combatant Commanders. That provision was included in part to ensure that a candidate had the necessary cross-service seasoning and diplomatic skills that come with speaking for the entire U.S. military, often with foreign leaders.

However, the law also included a provision giving the president latitude to choose someone who does not meet that criteria, saying he or she can “waive” the requirements “if the President determines such action is necessary in the national interest.”

Similarly, while Caine, 56, retired at the end of 2024, he would not be the first general recalled to service. President George W. Bush recalled Gen. Peter Schoomaker from retirement to serve as Army Chief of Staff in 2003.

And other officers have made an unexpected jump from three stars to on the Joint Chiefs, albeit never in the top job: Lt. Gen. Edward C. Meyer was a surprising choice to get a fourth star and become Army Chief of Staff in 1979.

A former member of the Senate Armed Services Committee staff told Air & Space Forces Magazine that he sees Caine as likely to be approved by lawmakers.

“The pattern is clear, to me, that they’ll probably let [the president] have the man he wants as his closest military advisor,” he said.

Lt. Gen. Daniel Caine. U.S. Air Force photo

F-16 Pilot

In 1990, along with his economics degree from Virginia Military Institute, Caine earned a commission through the AFROTC and won a coveted spot in the Euro-NATO undergraduate pilot training program.

Before completing pilot training, though, Caine worried that he might become a “banked pilot”—one sent to a non-flying job as the Air Force downsized—he said last month on the “Afterburn” podcast. So he applied to 85 Guard units and was picked up by the 174th Fighter Wing in Syracuse, N.Y. He later served with the D.C. Air Guard. He deployed several times to the Middle East, flying with Operations Southern Watch, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom, and helped lead the “Scud Hunt” operation in Iraq.

Of his 2,800 flying hours, more than 100 were in combat.

Caine was one of the commanders of the operation to defend Washington, D.C. in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center in New York. He later worked at the Air Guard Test Center in Arizona, saying the mission was “getting combat capability to the Guard in the field right now,” such as night vision goggles, targeting pods, datalinks, and large bombs.

Varied Experience

Beyond his time as a pilot, Caine’s military career has included a vast array of experience.

From 2005-2006, he served as a White House fellow with the Department of Agriculture, where much of his time was spent in the government response to Hurricane Katrina.

He then moved to the position of Policy Director for Counterterrorism on the White House Homeland Security Council through 2008, describing the job as coordinating interagency efforts against terrorism.

He then served a stint as commander of a Joint Special Operations Task Force in Iraq, but moved back and forth between Special Operations and the D.C. Guard for a number of years.

He also worked in Special Operations Command for a number of years, serving as Assistant to the SOCOM Vice Commander and Assistant Commanding General, Joint Special Operations Command. From 2018-2019, he was Deputy Commanding General of U.S. Central Command’s Special Ops Component and Deputy Commanding Officer of Special Operations Joint Task Force in Iraq, concurrently.

It was during that time that President Trump met Caine, in 2018 during Operation Inherent Resolve—the campaign against the Islamic State group. Trump said he came away from the encounter impressed that Caine believed the conflict could be resolved quickly by observing less restraint in air attacks.

Caine’s career then took him into highly secretive jobs, where he worked as the Director of Special Programs at the Pentagon’s Special Access Programs Office, and later as the Pentagon’s liaison to the CIA, his last government posting.

Privately, Caine, whose official biography describes him as a “serial entrepreneur and investor,” co-founded a regional airline and other businesses. After retirement, he joined Shield Capital, a firm that works in cybersecurity.

Air Force personnel that have served with and under Caine describe him as “thoughtful,” “pragmatic” and occasionally, “a hard ass,” enforcing high standards among the troops. “He doesn’t rattle,” said one. “He can navigate complex tasks.”

One pilot called Caine “apolitical” and said his nontraditional career “will serve him well” if he is confirmed.

He “will not come in with a bias” regarding the services, the pilot said, having developed strong appreciation for all service contributions during his special operations experiences.

Senior Master Sergeant Promotion Rate Goes Up for Fourth Year in a Row

Feb. 24, 2025 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force will promote 11.64 percent of eligible master sergeants to senior master sergeant this year, continuing a steady upward trajectory.

The Air Force Personnel Center announced Feb. 24 that 1,635 Airmen are moving up to E-8 out of 14,041 eligible. The full list of those selected will be posted on the center’s website Feb. 27 at 8 a.m. Central time.

The selection rate is the highest in six years and up 0.2 percent over last cycle. The total number of those selected is down slightly from the last cycle, but the number of those eligible dipped even more to its lowest level since 2019.

Back in 2022, the Air Force warned noncommissioned officers to expect lower than usual promotion rates due to enlisted grade structure revisions and high retention. In particular, they said, too many Airmen were getting promoted too quickly, leading to a lack of experience at lower ranks and a top-heavy enlisted force. At the time, leaders said they didn’t expect to reach a “healthier” distribution until 2025.

The lower rates hit grades E-5 to E-7 particularly hard, with some of the most competitive cycles in decades.

For senior master sergeant in particular, though, high retention seemed to play a bigger role. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic led to many Airmen staying in the service, creating especially competitive cycles in 2020-2022. It peaked in 2021, when only 1,194 Airmen out of 17,107 eligible were promoted to E-8—putting the selection rate below 7 percent, a rare occurrence in recent history.

Since then, promotion rates have increased four years in a row, though they are still a good bit off the high of 2012, when 13.78 percent of those eligible were selected.

Senior Master Sergeant Promotion Statistics

Year	Selected	Eligible	Promotion Rate
2025	1,635	14,041	11.64%
2024	1,734	15,151	11.44%
2023	1,629	16,031	10.16%
2022	1,443	17,419	8.28%
2021	1,194	17,107	6.98%
2020	1,184	15,544	7.62%
2019	1,434	13,316	10.77%
2018	1,549	13,054	11.87%
2017	1,391	11,788	11.80%
2016	1,467	11,904	12.32%
2015	1,257	14,362	8.75%
2014	999	14,823	6.74%
2013	1,367	12,834	10.65%
2012	1,702	12,351	13.78%
2011	1,274	12,378	10.29%
2010	1,269	13,741	9.24%

Hegseth Plans to Shrink Civilian Workforce; Air Force Hasn’t Fired Anyone Yet

Feb. 24, 2025 | By David Roza

The Office of the Secretary of Defense has ambitious goals to reduce the department’s civilian workforce by 5 to 8 percent, but it’s not clear how many of those will be Department of the Air Force employees.

On Feb. 20, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth released a video statement saying the Pentagon was reevaluating its probationary workforce in line with President Donald Trump’s directives and planned to cut the entire civilian workforce by 5 to 8 percent.

A day later, acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness Darin Selnick released a statement confirming the moves as part of an effort “to reform the Federal workforce.”

Many federal employees serve a probationary period for a year or more during which they have more limited appeal rights if they are fired. Across the federal government, thousands of such employees have been fired in recent days.

But Hegseth and Selnick said the plan is to eventually go beyond probationary employees and reduce the entire Defense Department civilian staff “to produce efficiencies and refocus the Department on the President’s priorities and restoring readiness in the force,” Selnick wrote.

Selnick expects about 5,400 probationary workers will be fired starting this week, followed by a hiring freeze as his staff evaluates their personnel needs. He pledged to “treat our workers with dignity and respect as it always does.”

According to recent data, the Pentagon has some 878,000 civilian employees—a 5 percent cut would equal around 43,900 employees, an 8 percent cut more than 70,000.

It’s not clear yet how many of Air Force employees—probationary or otherwise—may be fired.

“Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has indicated that the Pentagon is taking a deliberate, methodical approach to review its workforce and identify positions that may not directly contribute to warfighting success,” an Air Force official told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “There has been no direction to relieve Air Force employees at this time.”

An estimated 190,980 civilians worked for the Department of the Air Force in 2024, though that number was projected to fall to 186,278 in 2025. If the 5-8 percent cut is consistent across military departments, anywhere between 9,300 and 14,000 employees could be cut over time.

The Department of the Air Force did not respond to specific queries about its number of probationary employees and what areas of the workforce may see layoffs.

Civilians perform a range of tasks that reduce the workload for uniformed employees, from providing treatment in medical facilities to administrating military courts to supporting aircraft maintenance shops. Civilians also play a key role in the department’s intelligence and cyber workforce, with the Pentagon trumpeting its faster hiring time just last year.

One senior noncommissioned officer in aircraft maintenance said the number of civilian staff is already smaller today than what it used to be.

“Earlier in my career there were many more civilian positions that would do things like hazardous materials program managers, deployment managers, supply positions, and other support roles,” the NCO told Air & Space Forces Magazine on the condition of anonymity. “Those civilian positions have decreased over time and have been filled by Airmen who are supposed to be maintainers but have instead filled those supporting roles.”

A union of federal employees, including 250,000 defense employees, voiced their opposition to the planned cuts.

“They are tank and aircraft mechanics, commissary workers, ship inspectors,” American Federation of Government Employees National President Everett Kelley said in a Feb. 21 statement. “Cutting their jobs would push their work onto Soldiers, taking them away from their critical warfighting missions.”

U.S. law states the defense secretary may not reduce the full-time civilian workforce without “an appropriate analysis” of the reduction’s impact on workload, force structure, readiness, and other factors. Kelley said it was “clear that this analysis has not taken place.”

In Purge, Trump Fires Brown, Slife, Franchetti, and More

Feb. 21, 2025 | By Chris Gordon

President Donald Trump fired Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announcing his intent to nominate retired Air Force Lt. Gen. John “Dan” Caine to replace him in a social media post Feb. 21.

Caine is a highly unusual choice. U.S. Code states the “President may appoint an officer as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff only if the officer has served as (A) the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; (B) the Chief of Staff of the Army, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, the Commandant of the Marine Corps, or the Chief of Space Operations; or (C) the commander of a unified or specified combatant command.”

Caine never served in those roles.

However, the law also states the those requirements can be waived “if the President determines such action is necessary in the national interest.” Congress must confirm any nomination.

Caine retired in December after a tour as Associate Director for Military Affairs at the CIA. Trump has repeatedly praised him in public going back to his first term in office.

Separately, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced he had been directed to replace:

Air Force Vice Chief of Staff James C. “Jim” Slife

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti

The Judge Advocates General for the Army, Navy, and Air Force

Additional firings are believed likely, some sources said.

“General Caine is an accomplished pilot, national security expert, successful entrepreneur, and a ‘warfighter’ with significant interagency and special operations experience,” Trump wrote on his social media site Truth Social. Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for not promoting Caine to a four-star general. Caine was the deputy commanding general for special operations for Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, the campaign against the Islamic State group, from 2018-2019 during Trump’s first term.

“During my first term, Razin was instrumental in the complete annihilation of the ISIS caliphate. It was done in record setting time, a matter of weeks,” Trump wrote, using Caine’s callsign.

A retired general can legally be recalled to Active service; Army Gen. Peter Schoomaker was recalled to become Army Chief of Staff in 2003, and Army Gen. Maxwell D. Taylor was recalled to Active Duty to become an advisor to President John F. Kennedy and later Chairman of the Joint Chiefs in 1962, three years after retiring after a tour as Army Chief of Staff. Caine was an Air National Guardsman and served part time from 2009-2016.

Brown was appointed to a nominal four-year term as Chairman that began in October 2023. The normal term would have ended in September 2027. The last Chairman to serve fewer than four years was Marine Gen. Peter Pace, who served just two years at a time when the Chairman was appointed to a two-year term, renewable up to four years. Pace had previously spent four years as Vice Chairman.

Trump wrote of Brown: “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader, and I wish a great future for him and his family.”

Vice Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Navy Adm. Christopher W. Grady is now acting as Chairman, officials said.

Brown was the 22nd Air Force Chief of Staff and the 21st Chairman; he was only the second Airman to serve as Chairman in this century, the last one being Gen. Richard Myers, and the second African American Chairman after Army Gen. Colin Powell. Brown was nominated to become CSAF by Trump. Brown took the oath of office in the Oval Office in August 2020, with Trump watching.

Rumors have been swirling around the Pentagon for weeks but gained traction recently when specific names reportedly circulated among Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Prior to the firing, Brown had been visiting troops deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border Feb. 21. Announcing his trip on social media, he had written that he was looking forward to “observing [personnel] in action as they execute the mission of securing the border.”

Hegseth has publicly criticized Brown and Franchetti in the past.

“First of all, you’ve got to fire the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs,” Hegseth said in November on the Shawn Ryan Show podcast, shortly before Trump picked him to lead the Pentagon. “But any general that was involved—general, admiral, whatever—that was involved in any of the DEI woke s— has got to go. Either you’re in for warfighting, and that’s it. That’s the only litmus test we care about.”

Hegseth also severely criticized Brown in his 2024 book, “The War on Warriors,” in which he alleged Brown “built his generalship dutifully pursuing the radical positions of left-wing politicians, who in turn rewarded him with promotions.” Hegseth wrote further, without elaboration, that Brown “has made the race card one of his biggest calling cards.”

Hegseth also vilified Franchetti, who he charged was chosen to be Chief of Naval Operations in 2023 largely because she is a woman.

Trump’s actions are unprecedented in their breadth, spanning the Chairman down to top military lawyers. It remains unclear whether Congress’ traditionally bipartisan armed services committees will raise objections. The Senate must confirm all nominations to general and flag officer positions.

“I am troubled by the nature of these dismissals. This appears to be part of a broader, premeditated campaign by President Trump and Secretary Hegseth to purge talented officers for politically charged reasons, which would undermine the professionalism of our military and send a chilling message through the ranks,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee said in a statement which praised the “brilliant careers” and “great courage, honor, and distinction” of the fired officers. “A professional, apolitical military that is subordinate to the civilian government and supportive of the Constitution rather than a political party is essential to the survival of our democracy.”

SASC Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) thanked Brown for his service and said he was “confident Secretary Hegseth and President Trump will select a qualified and capable successor.”

Trump had already fired one uniformed leader, Coast Guard Adm. Linda L. Fagan, within hours after taking office Jan. 20. The Coast Guard is a military service, but falls under the Department of Homeland Security.

In his statement, Hegseth wrote: “Under President Trump, we are putting in place new leadership that will focus our military on its core mission of deterring, fighting and winning wars.”

Space Force Finishes Construction at Australia Site for Its New Deep Space Radar

Feb. 21, 2025 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The Space Force’s multinational project to build a new global radar network for safeguarding satellites from “malign activity” is taking shape, with the first facility in Australia now complete and set to go live by 2027.

This initiative known as the Deep-Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) is a joint effort between the U.S., United Kingdom, and Australia, to track objects up to 22,000 miles above Earth in geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The three nations agreed to construct radar sites in each country to maximize coverage.

The first facility, located in Exmouth, a port town in Western Australia, broke ground in October 2023. The service’s release noted that construction wrapped up three months ahead of schedule, with the site’s first antennas installed and the initial transmission test completed in September. More test activities are now underway, with full operations expected at the facility in 2027.

The DARC Site 1 Receive Array in Western Australia is shown in this aerial photograph. DARC is a partnership between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, designed to create an all-weather, global system to track very small objects in Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) to protect critical U.S. and allied satellites. Photo Credit: Apache Drone Photography.

There are more than 500 active satellites in GEO, according to different sources. As space becomes increasingly contested, DARC aims to provide around-the-clock, all-weather surveillance to detect, identify, and characterize objects moving through GEO, such as space debris, to avoid collisions with both military and civilian satellites. The system also promises to detect any hostile actions that could disrupt operations.

In recent years, analysts and military leaders have increasingly sounded the alarm on space becoming a warfighting domain, as Russia and China have ramped up investment and developed new weapons. To counter that, Space Force leaders say they need more counter-space and domain awareness capabilities.

Lt. Col. Nicholas Yeung, chief of capabilities development for Space Systems Command’s International Affairs office, also cited the need for global partnerships, citing “emerging threats from adversaries and pacing challengers.” The DARC project aims to link the sites of the three partner nations, for shared data access and rapid responses to threats.

A Transmit Antenna at Site 1 is shown at night. Photo Credit: Doug Humphries, BAE Systems

“The collaboration between all parties for the DARC project has been outstanding and is an example of what can be done when we work with our partners on a common goal for the advancement of Space Domain Awareness across our three nations,” said Michael Hunt, the Australian representative on the DARC steering committee.

Northrop Grumman is leading the charge in building DARC facilities. The company secured a $341 million contract with the U.S. Space Force in 2022 to build the first site in Australia and is scheduled to work on the second site in the U.K. under a $200 million deal signed last year. The U.K. Ministry of Defence has proposed building the installation at Cawdor Barracks, an old military base in Wales, for its strategic location and to extend its use beyond its planned closure in 2028.

Environmental assessments and town planning are underway for final approval. If all goes as planned, Northrop expects to wrap up the second DARC facility by February 2030.

“Alongside the United States and Australia, the United Kingdom will continue to take deliberate steps that ensure DARC enables a collective ability to operate decisively in space,” Commodore Dave Moody, head of Space Capability for U.K. Space Command said in the release. “DARC leverages the geography and commitment of key partner nations to deliver persistent, comprehensive space domain awareness.”

The third site will be set up somewhere in the continental U.S. once environmental and airspace assessments are completed. DARC is expected to be fully operational by 2032.

“DARC will ensure the U.S., its allies, and partners can effectively characterize the movement of objects traveling in, from and to space, allowing us to mitigate the risk of debris-causing events that could hold the world’s space-enabled capabilities at risk,” said Brig. Gen. Chandler Atwood, deputy commander of Space Operations Command. “Increased Space Domain Awareness will also bolster our vital ability to attribute malign activity from irresponsible actors in the space domain when and if necessary.”