Air Force ‘Taking a Pause’ on NGAD, Kendall Says

July 30, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force will put the Next Generation Air Dominance program on hold for a few months in order to see whether it is “on the right course” with the fighter that was intended to replace the F-22, Secretary Frank Kendall said July 30. However, all other aspects of air superiority modernization are moving ahead as fast as possible, he said.

Kendall, speaking at the annual Life Cycle Industry Days in Dayton, Ohio, assured listeners at his keynote speech that NGAD will go forward in some form, expressing confidence that “we’re still going to do a sixth-generation, crewed aircraft.”

The Air Force’s is asking itself some tough questions, however.

Does the service have “the right process? … The right operational concept?” Kendall said of the Air Force’s examination. “Before we commit to moving forward on a single design [and a] single supplier, we’re going to take a hard look at that.”

Kendall also held open the option that the NGAD could be uncrewed, though he said he doesn’t think the technology is quite “there yet” to move fully in that direction. The NGAD could be “optionally crewed,” he said, as the B-21 Raider stealth bomber was intended to be.

The NGAD is a “family of systems” which comprises a formation or aircraft. The center of the formation is the crewed fighter, controlling up to six Collaborative Combat Aircraft. The CCA is so closely linked to NGAD that they are funded in the same budget line.

Speaking at an AFA Warfighters in Action event in June, Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. David W. Allvin raised eyebrows when he said that NGAD is one of “many choices” on the budget landscape, a departure from the rock-solid support the fighter has had from the service until now. Since then, Kendall and other service leaders told reporters at the Paris Air Show that the jet is getting a “hard look” to see if it’s massive cost can be reduced. Kendall himself has said it will be “multiple hundreds of millions” of dollar per copy.

The NGAD may also have been outrun by the technology advances on the CCA, and must be reconciled with its low-cost stablemate, which by all accounts is making great strides. Kendall referred to the CCA program as taking an “incremental approach” to fielding capability.

Kendall said last year that a contract award for NGAD would be coming in 2024, but his comments in Ohio indicate that may no longer be the case.

Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall provides the keynote address on day two of Life Cycle Industry Days (LCID) in Dayton, Ohio, July 30, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Jim Varhegyi

Only Lockheed Martin and Boeing seem capable of offering a fully-formed candidate. Northrop Grumman has publicly stated it will not compete for the NGAD contract. However, Kendall has pushed for smaller contractors to be involved in new aircraft design and technology and, especially with CCAs, seems willing to divide work among many hands rather than rely solely on well-established primes.

Although Kendall has said that the goal is to frequently upgrade the NGAD with new systems, weapons and technologies, senior Air Force leaders have privately questioned whether that approach will work, given the accelerating rate of technology change. The NGAD may have to be updated on a pace comparable to that of the CCA, with its technology and even design turning over every three years or so.

Kendall noted that USAF must accommodate to China’s rapid advances in air combat technology and its ability to rain ballistic missiles down on air bases. If the Air Force is compelled to operate only from bases with long runways, that’s “a problem for us,” Kendall said.

F-16s Not a ‘Golden Bullet’ for Ukraine, But They Are an Upgrade, USAFE’s Hecker Says

July 30, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The F-16s provided to Ukraine in the coming weeks cannot deliver instant air superiority over Russia’s robust Russian air defenses, but they will allow Kyiv to transition to a Western-style air force and better employ U.S. munitions, the U.S. Air Force’s top general in Europe said July 30.

“It’s not going to be the … golden bullet, that all of a sudden, they have F-16s, and now they’re going to go out and gain air superiority,” said U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa Commander Gen. James B. Hecker during a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event. “It’s the integrated air and missile defense systems that they’re going up against.”

Those air defense systems are among the most effective anywhere, he said. “We have a hard time with fifth-generation aircraft going against that,” Hecker explained. “But it does move them a step in the right direction.”

Western allies have signaled the imminent arrival of F-16s for weeks, but to date no aircraft have been acknowledged to be in Ukraine. The Netherlands and Denmark are providing the first of those jets, and Belgium and Norway have also pledged to provide F-16s.

Plans for maintaining and arming those aircraft have been less clear. The Wall Street Journal reported July 30 that Ukraine will be getting:

AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles

AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles

JDAM Extended-Range and Small-Diameter Bombs

“They already have them,” Hecker said in an apparent reference to the air-to-surface munitions, though he did not say precisely which weapons Kyiv would receive for its Vipers. “They’re just dropping them off Mig-29s and Su-24s. Now they’re going to have the opportunity to actually drop them off of an airplane that they were designed to come off of, which will give them more capability to change the targets in flight and things like that.”

Ukraine has jerry-rigged HARMs to its Russian-built aircraft to target radar sites but without the ability to change targets dynamically. Advanced weapons targeting pods on F-16s would enable HARMs to be employed more flexibly with greater precision, though whether Ukraine will receive those devices is unclear. Even a basic F-16 provides an upgrade over Ukraine’s current aircraft.

“That’s going to increase the capability,“ Hecker said.

Kyiv’s current stockpile of AMRAAMs and AIM-9s have been adapted as surface-to-air interceptors for use by air defense systems—though the U.S. has not said which variants it has provided. While Hecker did not specifically discuss air-to-air weapons, Air & Space Forces Magazine previously reported that AMRAAMs would be an option for Ukraine’s F-16s.

Also unclear is whether the U.S. and its allies will authorize Ukraine to target sites in Russia with its new weapons. The U.S. has only allowed Ukraine to use American weapons inside Russia in limited cases.

What is known is that armaments are coming. “Commitments have been made by multiple countries … to provide the ammunition that is necessary to equip the F-16s,” Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told Air & Space Forces Magazine in mid-July during the NATO summit. “This is a major step forward.”

Maintenance

Hecker didn’t provide details about Ukraine’s maintenance plans, offering only that “We have a good way forward to make that happen.” The U.S. and other Western countries are training F-16 pilots and maintainers.

So far, the U.S. plans to train a total of 12 Ukrainian pilots this fiscal year, as well as “dozens” of maintainers.

For now, Russia and Ukraine are hamstrung in the air.

“Quite honestly, they’re doing a lot of the things that Ukraine is doing,” Hecker said of the Russian Air Force. “Come in, low altitudes, getting below the radars, popping up, dropping off a glide bomb, and then exiting. So that’s kind of the tactics that both sides have resorted to just because of the advanced integrated air and missile defense systems that are on both sides.”

This mutual denial has prevented Russia from stopping the flow of Western arms into Ukraine, Hecker said. “If they had air superiority, they would be ‘capping’ over the borders of Poland and Romania and Ukraine. Anything that comes in that the 50 allies have donated, they’d be doing close air support, taking all that stuff out. But they don’t have air superiority, so they can’t do it,” he said.

Ukrainian Air Force capabilities should be measured over the long term, Hecker said. Ukrainian pilots have trained with the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson since October, the Air Force’s F-16 foreign pilot training unit. While U.S. training has been tailored to individual pilots, the unit focuses on training pilots in the six-month “B-Course”—or Basic Course. U.S. officials have said the training was adapted and lengthened to give the Ukrainian pilots more time to become proficient. While several pilots have graduated from training in Tucson and moved on to training in Europe, these pilots are all still new to the F-16 and the tactics they need to know to be effective.

“This is a pretty big one,” Hecker said. “All that equipment comes with Western training, which is a cultural shift for somebody who was trained by the Russians years ago, and that takes time. You know, a seven-month course on how to fly an F-16 isn’t going to change that culture overnight, and we’ve seen that with other Eastern Bloc countries that now are members of NATO.”

Poland struggled to transition from Soviet-era jets to single-engine, multi-role F-16s, but ultimately became an effective NATO partner. The change in mindset from the Soviet-style to Western doctrine and tactics, techniques, and procedures has a steep learning curve, he said.

“We’ve started that transition to Western TTPs, to Western doctrine, to Western equipment, and they’re going to be much better off and a much better supporter and partner once they mature with all these capabilities that we’re giving them,” Hecker said. “But it’s not going to be overnight. This is talking about half a decade or decades to get to that point. But we started the clock, and I think that’s a good start.”

Rebuffing Beijing, US and Philippines Vow to Operate in South China Sea

July 30, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The U.S. and the Philippines reaffirmed their right to navigate the South China Sea and its international airspace in the wake of China’s attempts to disrupt these activities, top officials from the two nations said during a meeting in Manila on July 30.

“We are about making sure that all of us can protect and uphold our sovereignty, our territorial integrity, freedom of navigation, freedom of commerce, which is so vital to everyone in this region,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a joint press conference.

Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III visited Manila to meet with their Philippine counterparts for the two nations’ Ministerial Consultations. The secretaries reiterated their commitment to lawful commerce and demanded “full respect for international law” from Beijing in the highly contested Second Thomas Shoal in a joint statement.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken conduct a press briefing alongside Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo after the fourth U.S.-Philippines Two-Plus-Two Ministerial Dialogue in Manila, Philippines, July 30, 2024. DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza

The remarks come on the heels of China and Russia flying their bombers and fighters near U.S. territory last week. Marking the first instance of simultaneous encroachment near Alaska by the two nations, two Russian TU-95 Bear and two Chinese H-6 strategic bombers entered the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on July 24. The aircraft were intercepted off the coast of Alaska by American and Canadian fighters and remained in international airspace.

While this was a debut for Chinese H-6s venturing close to North America, Beijing has previously conducted what the U.S. calls unprofessional intercepts in the South China Sea, most of which China asserts claims over. The U.S. regularly patrols the skies with its surveillance aircraft, as well as bombers, and conducts aerial and maritime exercises with its allies in the region, arguing it is operating in accordance with international law.

Meanwhile, the tensions between China and the Philippines revolve around maritime disputes. Following surging tensions from Beijing since last year, the U.S. and the Philippines have boosted their joint training in the region. The latest flare-up saw the Chinese coast guard attacking Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons near Second Thomas Shoal.

The shoal is situated about 105 nautical miles west of the Philippine Island of Palawan. Several other countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, have claimed the territory. The region falls within Manila’s internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

“Let me be clear, the Mutual Defense Treaty applies to armed attacks on either of our armed forces, aircraft, or public vessels anywhere in the South China Sea,” Austin said on July 30, referring to the 1951 agreement committing both Washington and Manila to mutual defense in the Pacific.

During their visit, Austin and Blinken additionally announced extra funding to amplify the nation’s security partnership with the U.S.

“We’re working with the U.S. Congress to allocate $500 million in Foreign Military Financing to the Philippines,” said Austin.

This includes $128 million for Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) investments. The Philippines has been ramping up security by expanding U.S. military presence to more local bases through the EDCA over the past few years.

The Pentagon currently has access to nine Philippine military sites where it can preposition aircraft and vessels. Washington aims to modernize these facilities through runway and infrastructure upgrades, to enhance joint training and interoperability.

The half-billion dollars will also help deter “unwanted and unlawful aggression by building a credible deterrent posture,” according to Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro.

Air Force Launches New ‘Foundations’ Courses for Enlisted Airmen

July 30, 2024 | By David Roza

The Air Force launched the enlisted Foundations courses on July 19. The program is meant to fill the years-long gap in enlisted professional military education (PME) between established schools such as the Airman Leadership School and the Noncommissioned Officer Academy.

“Some Airmen go five or six years between PME courses, which is way too long,” Col. Damian Schlussel, commander of the Thomas N. Barnes Center for Enlisted Education, which developed the curriculum, said in a July 29 press release. “These courses close that developmental gap by delivering the right content at the right time in an Airman’s career.”

There are three Foundations courses: one for junior enlisted Airmen, one for noncommissioned officers (NCOs), and one for senior NCOs. Each course is designed to prepare Airmen for new levels of leadership responsibility and help them understand strategic concepts such as Agile Combat Employment and great power competition, though the emphasis varies for each course.

For example, the 300-level junior enlisted Foundation course syllabus builds a “warrior mindset” and what it means to be an Airman, while the 500-level NCO foundation course emphasizes critical thinking and team dynamics. Meanwhile, most of the 700-level SNCO course is devoted to sharpening organizational culture and aligning with broader strategic objectives.

The Enlisted Airmanship Continuum is introduced at Basic Military Training and reinforced by foundational competencies in each AFSC’s career field education and training plan. U.S. Air Force graphic

The five-day courses will be prerequisites for the existing schools, such as the Airman Leadership School and the NCO Academies, which Airmen must pass before advancing to higher ranks. Unlike those schools, which take place at a few dozen set locations around the world, the Foundations courses will be held at each base across the service, replacing the base-level professional enhancement seminars previously held there.

About 80 percent of each course is standardized, but the remaining 20 percent is tailored to the specific major command or wing hosting the course, the press release explained.

The Barnes Center first started testing the Foundations concept in October, after 48 representatives from all the major commands gathered for 10 days to put together the course curriculum. In the nine months since then, a few dozen instructors taught the new courses to more than a thousand Airmen across Active-duty, the Reserve, and the Air National Guard, then gathered their feedback to inform the final product.

“It was a lot of long days, weekends, and late nights for the team, but we were able to do it and do it well,” said Tech. Sgt. Kate Hytinen, the NCO in charge of the Foundations effort.

The new courses are part of a larger effort called the Enlisted Airmanship Continuum, which is meant to guide the development of enlisted Airmen.

“This shift is about the long game and building the force of the future,” wrote then-Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. and then-Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force JoAnne Bass when they introduced the concept in September. “We owe every Airman deliberate developmental opportunities throughout their careers to grow and become their very best.”

The continuum also includes the Prepping the Line Job Qualification Standard, an assessment that new supervisors can take to make sure they have the right skills for mentoring others, improving their unit, managing resources, and other leadership responsibilities. Another part of the effort includes on-demand online PME for anything from emotional intelligence to the budget cycle.

Enlisted Airmen “will be the difference makers in the future fight, and we are choosing to invest in them now to ensure we remain the Air Force our nation needs,” Brown and Bass wrote.

The Foundations courses are supposed to coincide with specific times in an Airman’s career. More information can be found in this July 12 memo written by force development director Crystal L. Moore.

Air Force Selects 78 Airmen for First Warrant Officer Class in 66 Years

July 30, 2024 | By David Roza

For the first time in more than 60 years, a group of Airmen have punched their tickets to become warrant officers. The Air Force announced an initial cohort of 78 Airmen from across the Active-duty, Reserve, and Air National Guard total force who will attend the newly-created Warrant Officer Training School at Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala. starting this October.

“These Airmen are poised to assume critical roles as technical experts, functional leaders, and advisors within their specialized domains,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said in a July 29 statement. “They possess the cutting-edge skills we need to address the multifaceted challenges of today’s dynamic security landscape.”

The Air Force and Space Force are the only military services currently without warrant officers, who fill technical rather than leadership functions in the other military branches. But today, the Air Force sees the reintroduction of warrant officers as a way to maintain an edge in two fast-moving technical fields: information technology and cybersecurity.

“With perishable skills, like cyber, like IT, where the technology is moving so rapidly, folks who are experts in that can’t afford to be sent off to a leadership course for eight or nine months,” Alex Wagner, assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs, said April 9.

Up until July 29, the Air Force’s public plan was to graduate 60 warrant officers in two 8-week classes: the first starting in October and the second starting in early 2025. But the new announcement boasts 78 selectees across three classes. The Air Force could not immediately answer why the number had increased or when the third class would take place, but the announcement said the first warrant officers are still expected to arrive at their new duty stations in early 2025.

The larger number is a good sign for the 433 eligible Airmen who submitted complete applications for the program. With just 60 slots available, the rejection rate was 86 percent, but with 78 slots, that falls to 82 percent. If all 78 selectees graduate from the program, it also means that the Air Force will enjoy more technical experts in cyber and IT.

Still, what makes a warrant officer is not only technical expertise, but also communication skills, strategic understanding, emotional intelligence, and ethical decision-making, Maj. Nathaniel Roesler, the school’s commandant, told Air & Space Forces Magazine earlier this month.

“We’re not trying to make warrant officers into better cyber operators,” he explained. “They come to us with those skills, with years of practical experience. What we’re doing with them is building them into … the Air Force’s leading professional warfighters, technical integrators, and trusted advisors.”

It is not clear at this point if the Air Force will hold classes for more warrant officers in the future, but if it does, applicants who did not make the cut this time can apply for those future boards, a service spokesperson said.

Not Prepared for Major War: Commission Slams US Defense Strategy

July 29, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

A Congressionally mandated commission found serious faults with the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, concluding that it fails to fully recognize China’s growing military might, Russia’s persistent threat, risks from Iran and other rogue states—and the increasing convergence of all three.

The Pentagon is under-financed and inadequately structured for the current threat environment, and should be funded and built to fight multiple wars at once, rather than just one. The expert panel called for dramatically strengthening the defense industrial base and for overhauling clunky policies that inhibit technological breakthroughs.

“The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war,” the report concluded. “The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today.”

The bipartisan commission was led by former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) and Eric Edelman, a former undersecretary of defense for policy in the George W. Bush administration. Other members were: Former Army Vice Chief of Staff retired Gen. John M. Keane; Thomas G. Mahnken, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Mara Rudman; Mariah Sixkiller; Alissa Starzak; and Roger Zakheim.

Mahnken said the report, released July 29, was intended as a wake-up call to the American people and its leaders.

“America’s political leaders are not doing as much as they should to prepare the United States for the possibility of a major war,” Mahnken told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “On a bipartisan basis, we were able to reach an agreement that we need to be doing more, and we need to be doing more in terms of resources, but also in terms of planning and many other areas.”

The past two National Defense Strategies stipulated that the U.S. must be prepared to fight one major at a time, while relying on allies and residual U.S. forces to deter and respond to other conflicts. The 2022 National Defense Strategy, released in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, stated the U.S. must deter “opportunistic aggression” while otherwise “involved in an all-domain conflict.”

But increasing cooperation between China and Russia, along with closer ties between Russia and Iran, and Russia and North Korea, suggest the U.S. may face broader challenges in the future. President Biden’s 2022 National Defense Strategy calls China the “pacing challenge” and Russia an “acute threat.” Russia, however, has proved itself more than just an immediate troublemaker in one part of the world. It remains a disruptive force and has managed to adapt to economic sanctions by leaning on Chinese help to keep its defense factories running and Iranian and North Korean help to generate munitions and drones for its war in Ukraine.

U.S. officials say Moscow’s nuclear and space capabilities remain robust. And its growing military cooperation with China poses new risks. The two launched a joint bomber mission near Alaska last week, their bombers taking off from the same base in Russia for the flight.

New Construct

The commission proposes replacing the one-war strategy in favor of a “Multiple Theater Force Construct.”

The Commission’s report notes the distinction between “the bipolar Cold War construct” in place from the 1950s through the 1980s and “the two-war construct designed afterward for separate wars against less capable rogue states—essentially, one in northeast Asia and one in the Middle East”—that was the basis for the post-Cold War strategies that followed.

“Neither model meets the dimensions of today’s threat or the wide variety of ways in which and places where conflict could erupt, grow, and evolve,” the commissioners write. “It reflects the likelihood of simultaneous conflicts in multiple theaters because of the partnership of U.S. peer or near-peer adversaries and incorporates the U.S. system of alliances and partnerships.”

Today’s $850 billion defense budget is insufficient for those requirements, the report says. Some members of 2018 NDS commission called for annual 3 percent to 5 percent budget growth—over and above inflation. But neither presidential administration since then has sought anything close to that. In fact, the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act requires the defense budget to decline in real terms in both fiscal 2025 and 2026.

The commissioners criticized multiple administrations for backing National Defense Strategies based on wishful thinking, as well as budgetary gridlock in Congress, and general indifference from an American public that is largely disengaged on national security issues.

“The lack of preparedness to meet the challenges to U.S. national security is the result of many years of failure to recognize the changing threats and to transform the U.S. national security structure,” the commissioners say. “The 2011 Budget Control Act, repeated continuing resolutions, and inflexible government systems” exacerbate the problem.

“The United States is still failing to act with the urgency required, across administrations and without regard to governing party,” the report says. “Implementing these recommendations to boost all elements of national power will require sustained presidential leadership and a fundamental change in mindset at the Pentagon, at the National Security Council and across executive branch departments and agencies, in Congress, and among the American public writ large.”

Two Selected CCA Contractors May Not Get Equal Share of Work, USAF Official Says

July 29, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force wants to carry two contractors into the production phase of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, but there’s no fixed limit or minimum of work that they can win, the service’s Program Executive Officer for fighters and advanced aircraft told reporters July 29.

Brig. Gen. Jason Voorheis, speaking with the press at Air Force Life Cycle Industry Days in Dayton, Ohio, acknowledged that in the past, the Air Force has awarded leader-follower production arrangements on engines when the service wanted to ensure competition and preserve the industrial base. But there’s no fixed amount of work that either Anduril or General Atomics, the two main competitors for CCA Increment 1, can win, he said. Nor will they necessarily build on the same timeline.

“It is likely that we will carry both of those vendors through to production,” Voorheis said of the two companies, which were chosen for Increment 1 in April.

“There’s a lot of flexibility in the contracting mechanism to vary when those awards happen,” if one is “more advanced than the other in terms of schedule and the quantities. So those are some variables and dials we have,” he said.

“Our intent is to create a sustained competitive model that allows optionality to pick the most effective system and to surge over time,” Voorheis said. The choice of how many of each will be based on the “operational environment,” and production numbers goal should not be viewed as “an equal share.”

He added that “we’re not going into it with any notion of equals, an equal split or a specific 60/40 split,” he said. “It will be wholly dependent on the features” offered by the two vendors, and then “the capacity that the department, our joint partners, or international partners, need.”

Voorheis said there’s been “some confusion” about when the CCA contracts will be awarded. The Air Force hasn’t announced when it will award a production contract for CCA Increment 2 , but will award a production contract for Increment 1 in 2026, PEO office officials said.

He also emphasized that the fiscal year 2026 awards will be competitive, and potentially include other contractors that were not selected for Increment 1.

“So not only can those two [Anduril and General Atomics] compete, but the other vendors that were part of the design work earlier on have an ability to compete as well for Increment 1 production.”

Japan to Start Making AMRAAMs and Export PAC-3 Missiles

July 29, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Japan will lend its industrial prowess to help produce shore up munitions supplies, under an agreement with the United States to co-produce Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and Patriot PAC-3 missiles, the two countries announced July 28.

The agreement comes as the U.S. also agreed to restructure its command and control relationship with Japan amid rising concern about China. The U.S. will reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan as a joint force headquarters under U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, to coordinate security activities in and around Japan in accordance with the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security.

“I am … proud of our work together to support Japan’s counterstrike capability,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in Tokyo on July 28. “We’ll bolster defense industrial cooperation, including missile coproduction, and we’ll increase our bilateral presence in the southwest islands. “

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru pose at the Japanese Ministry of Defense in Tokyo, July 29. (DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent the weekend at the U.S.-Japan Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo. In a joint statement, the two nations called missile co-production “mutually beneficial” for expanding and diversifying supply, as Washington seeks to balance its requirements with export demand for Ukraine and other allies.

“These efforts will improve our ability to deter and manage coercive and destabilizing behavior,” Austin said.

Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will manufacture the missiles under license to the U.S. weapons maker Lockheed Martin. Japan is already producing Patriot PAC-3s, but making AMRAAMs will be a new venture.

AMRAAM is an advanced radar-guided, fire-and-forget air-to-air missile carried by F-15, F-16, F/A-18, F-22, and F-35 fighters. Japan has had AMRAAMs in its arsenal dating back to the 1990s, and as recently as last December signed a $224 million deal to acquire 120 AIM-120C AMRAAMs. Under the new agreement, Japan will be licensed to produce AMRAAMs itself. It remains uncertain whether Japan-made AMRAAMs will be solely for domestic use or might be available for export.

Japan first acquired Patriot missile interceptors nearly two decades ago. The PAC-3 is crucial to the Japan Self-Defense Force’s missile defense strategy.

In December, Tokyo changed its defense export regulations to allow domestically produced PAC-3 missiles to be exported to the U.S. By the end of this year, the two nations’ joint platform, Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment (DICAS), will provide additional details on timelines, procurement needs, and funding strategies for the weapon co-production.

Joint Force Headquarters

The U.S. and Japan also revealed plans for what Austin called “the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation.” Establishing U.S. Forces Japan as a Joint Force Headquarters aligned with Japan’s new Joint Operations Command aims to enhance combined operations between the two military arms.

The U.S. will also step up its military presence on Japan’s southwest islands, those closest to Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Pentagon previously announced plans to base 36 F-15EX aircraft at Kadena Air Base, replacing a patchwork of combat jets that has deployed there since older F-15C/D models were retired. The U.S. will also add 48 F-35As at Misawa Air Base, replacing aging F-16s.

“We’re also strengthening our defense cooperation with other allies and partners in the region, including Australia, India, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines,” Austin said. Departing Japan on Sunday, Austin and Blinken next headed to Manila for the fourth U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue.

Small Drones Force New Thinking on Air Superiority, Slife Says

July 29, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority, Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James C. Slife said on July 29.

Small drones have become a defining feature of the Russia-Ukraine war, with both sides fielding drones and cheap quadcopters for strikes and reconnaissance. In Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, small drones—along with rockets and missiles—are regularly used to harass U.S. and allied forces, in some cases injuring and even killing American troops. In January, an Iranian-aligned militia killed three U.S. troops in Jordan with a drone at Tower 22, a remote U.S. base that lacked its own robust defenses.

“We used to make the claim that since 1953 no American has been killed by air attack,” Slife said. “We can’t make that claim anymore. It calls into question, ‘What does air superiority actually look like?’ [Does] it look like 30,000 feet over the Yalu River in 1953 or does it look like below 3,000 feet with quadcopters with a hand grenade slung to the bottom of them? I think the answer is: It’s all of the above.”

Drones are hard to detect, flying low and presenting a minimal radar cross-section. They also can be used en masse by more sophisticated adversaries, posing serious dilemmas for the Air Force and America’s allies. And they force the U.S. and allies to counter them with high-priced weapons, imposing disproportionate costs.

counter-UAS — Airman 1st Class Bryston Peterson, counter-small unmanned aerial systems controller with the 379th Expeditionary Security Forces Squadron, watches hovering unmanned aerial systems from the C-UAS program under the 379th Expeditionary Security Forces Squadron during an exercise in partnership with the explosive ordnance disposal team from the 379th Expeditionary Civil Engineer Squadron at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, Dec. 11, 2020. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Brigette Waltermire.

To counter drones in the Middle East, the U.S. has used F-22, F-15, and F-16 fighters, along with costly missiles. U.S. and allied forces neutralized Iran’s attack on Israel in April, eliminating 99 percent of its missiles and drones, but in other cases, attacks have proven successful. Since October 2023, dozens of American service members have been injured and three killed in more than 170 drone, rocket, and missile attacks throughout the region.

In addition to Iran-backed rebel groups in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Lebanon, Iran has also backed the Houthis, a Yemeni militant group that is using the same sort of weapons to attack shipping in the Red Sea and, earlier in July, to attack Tel Aviv, Israel, with a weapon that flew more than 1,000 miles before striking a building and killing a civilian.

“Now, clearly, you’re not going to be sending F-22s out to find a DJI quadcopter with hand grenades underneath them,” Slife said. “And so we have to think about a broader definition of what air superiority actually looks like and how we achieve it.”

Slife said the U.S. can learn to use small drones as an extension to its more conventional airpower. The general likened today’s experiments with drones to the lessons learned during the Spanish Civil War and other conflicts just before World War II.

“You could see the contours of World War II starting to take shape prior to the full-scale outbreak of World War II,” he said. “I hope there’s not a World War III, but if there is, I wonder to what extent the lessons are starting to take shape in places like Israel today, Ukraine, and so forth. So we’re keenly interested in what we can what we can pick up from that.”

The Air Force has pioneered the use of high-end drones, beginning with the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, and a variety of other unmanned aerial systems. Still higher-end autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft, which would operate alongside manned fighter jets, are now under development, and MQ-9 Reaper operators can now control multiple drones at once.

Speaking later in the day during an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Undersecretary of the Air Force Melissa Dalton said there is a way of “thinking that I think is increasingly taking hold across the Department of Defense and certainly the Department of Air Force” of what she termed “cost-effective mass” to augment expensive platforms.

“For the Department of the Air Force, in particular historically, we have focused on building on a discrete set of exquisite platforms, with an emphasis on quality, less on quantity. But quantity can have a quality of its own when you’re thinking about how to be able to penetrate through, or to be able to disrupt, the type of contested environments we may find ourselves in,” she said.

Slife added artificial intelligence and machine learning are also opening new possibilities for existing drones and future weapons.

“With advances in networking technology, advances in automation, the emergence of AI as a warfighting capability that we need to bring to bear” is changing the Air Force’s central way of thinking, Slife said. “What we’re finding is that one-pilot, one-cockpit, one-datalink, one-airplane architecture doesn’t have to define the way we operate these things. The idea is one operator, many platforms with higher degrees of automation.”