New ICBM Has ‘Critical’ Cost and Schedule Overruns, Needs SecDef Certification to Continue

Jan. 18, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

This story was updated Jan. 19 to clarify the source of a quote as assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics Andrew Hunter, not a Northrop official.

The new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program being developed by the Air Force and Northrop Grumman will cost 37 percent more than expected and take at least two years longer than previous projections before achieving initial operational capability—compelling the service to extend the life of some of its Minuteman ICBMs, senior service and Northrop officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Just before close of business Jan. 18, the Air Force sent Congress notification of a Nunn-McCurdy breach on the Sentinel program. The Nunn-McCurdy Act requires the Pentagon to inform lawmakers if a program incurs a cost or schedule overrun of more than 15 percent. Any breach over 15 percent is considered “significant,” while a breach of 30 percent is considered “critical.”

The Sentinel’s Program Acquisition Unit Cost—which includes development, acquisition, and construction costs—is increasing by 37 percent, making its Nunn-McCurdy breach “critical,” the senior official said. Its Average Unit Procurement Cost—which is focused on acquisition costs—will rise by 17 percent. The two figures are not additive.

An Air Force spokesperson said that when the program was baselined in 2020, the PAUC was $118 million. The 37 percent increase now puts that estimate at $162 million for the PAUC, the spokesperson said.

Under Nunn-McCurdy, programs in “critical” status are assumed to be headed for termination, unless the Secretary of Defense certifies there’s no alternative. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to make that certification, given the time it would take to start over and the urgency with which the 50-year-old Minuteman missiles must be replaced.

The estimated cost of Sentinel before the “program deviation” was $95.3 billion, indicating its new cost could be more than $125 billion. The Air Force expects to have a new cost and schedule for Sentinel by summer 2024, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics Andrew Hunter said. That assumes the Nunn-McCurdy process takes its full course and the program is allowed to continue.

The cost and schedule growth stems largely from the ground element of Sentinel. These include the command and launch segment—silos and launch control facilities, which will be “significantly bigger” than those for Minuteman—as well as the communications infrastructure the Air Force had hoped to reuse from the Minuteman, but which is too old and lacking in necessary bandwidth to do the job. A big element of that will be cabling and cable ducting which must be replaced, as well as land easements and other infrastructure expenses not well understood when the program baseline was set.

Inflation also played a role. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has also noted Sentinel has struggled with issues such as adequate labor and security clearances for workers.

While there is some escalation in the cost of the LGM-35A missile itself, it was not a major factor in the Nunn-McCurdy breach, Hunter said.

“There’s been a little bit of cost growth on the missile side, but comparatively much less than what you see with command and launch segment. (The missile) would not probably, on its own, have triggered any kind of a breach in terms of cost,” he said.

The schedule slip also adds cost to the program, since engineers and workers have to be kept on the project longer than expected. Moreover, some previously unexpected costs “were not included” in the Milestone B review of the program in 2020, a USAF official said.

Sentinel and Minuteman will also have to operate simultaneously for a time, creating challenges for the communications network.

In years to come, Hunter said, “there will be significant budgetary changes as a result of this cost growth, on both the Sentinel and Minuteman side.”

Work continues on the program while the Nunn-McCurdy process plays out; no stop-work order has been sent to Northrop Grumman or its subcontractor team.

While no Sentinel-related financial changes are expected to the fiscal 2025 budget request soon to go to Capitol Hill, the cost increases will be reflected in the five-year program objective memoranda (POM).

According to the Sentinel’s Selected Acquisition Report for 2022, procurement accounts for $61.6 billion of the program cost estimate, while research, development, test and evaluation is $25.5 billion and military construction is $8.7 billion.

In order for Sentinel to continue, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III must certify the program is crucially needed. The certification requires five conditions be met:

The program must be deemed essential to national security.

The root cause of the overrun must be clearly understood.

New cost estimates must be validated by the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation shop as reasonable.

There are no lower-cost alternatives to the program.

The program is a higher priority than other programs that must be reduced or eliminated to pay for the overrun.

A Nunn-McCurdy breach must also be addressed by restructuring the program in a way that corrects the root cause of the overrun, and new program milestones must be set.

Programmatically, the Sentinel is expected to go through a series of “rolling” critical design reviews in the coming months, a Northrop official told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

There may be ways to mitigate the two-year delay, he said.

“There’s IOC and there’s FOC,” Hunter noted, referring to Initial Operational Capability and Full Operational Capability. “IOC is when you get started and FOC is when you are done. What really matters for Minuteman III is when are you done. … FOC is obviously farther out in time. So there will be options to really look at to how do we perhaps keep [the] FOC date from moving as much as other parts of the program.”

The Sentinel program calls for production of 634 missiles. Of those, 450 will replace Minuteman III missiles now in silos, 184 will be used to demonstrate periodically—to allies and potential adversaries alike—that the system works, and 25 will be developmental test vehicles.

The program also calls for dozens of launch control facilities; maintenance and management buildings; integrated control centers at F. E. Warren, Malmstrom, and Minot Air Force Bases; weapons storage facilities; 56 loading and transport vehicles, and some 7,500 miles of cabling, a Northrop official said. Collectively, the massive program is “like five MDAPs (Major Defense Acquisition Programs) combined,” he said.

In response to the Nunn-McCurdy notification, Northrop said it and the Air Force “continue to make significant progress on this highly complex program, achieving key milestones to mature the design and reduce risk.” As part of its engineering and manufacturing development contract, “our team is committed to supporting the Air Force as it assesses and updates acquisition cost forecasts for the future phases of the program, to include construction projects, production, and deployment of the weapon system.”

“We are focused on continuing to perform and meet our commitments under the EMD contract as we move toward delivery of this essential national security capability,” a spokesperson added.

Northrop CEO Kathy Warden will preside over the company’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings call on Jan. 25.

B-1 Crash Site Yet to Be Cleared, Keeping Flight Ops on Pause at Ellsworth

Jan. 18, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

B-1B Lancer flight operations from Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., are still paused following a Jan. 4 crash of a bomber at the base, and the base’s runway remains closed, the Air Force said.

The scene has not been cleared and the runway is expected to remain closed past Jan. 19, as crash evidence continues to be processed and investigated, a service official told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“The Ellsworth AFB runway will remain closed while investigators continue to look into the cause of the B-1B crash Jan. 4, 2024,” Col. Derek Oakley, 28th Bomb Wing commander, added in an emailed statement. “We continue to thank the community for their outpouring of support and well wishes for the aircrew and say ‘thank you’ to all those who continue to work the scene and the investigation.”

Imagery circulating online shows that the aircraft is severely burned and suffered significant damage after crashing and skidding off the runway. The official said the aircraft was likely not in a “fixable situation,” nor was it airworthy.

Ellsworth’s sole runway has been closed since the crash, according to a Notice to Airmen/Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM). The latest notice was set to expire on Jan. 19. B-1 operations from Dyess Air Force Base, Texas—the only other combat B-1 base—continue. The Air Force also maintains some B-1s for test operations.

“Losing an aircraft is difficult, but I cannot emphasize enough we have four safe aircrew,” Oakley said on Jan. 9 in a video statement.

Purported photo of the B-1 crash at Ellsworth AFB, SD from the Air Force amn/nco/snco Facebook page. pic.twitter.com/tq8GN32f6C
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) January 8, 2024

The crashed B-1 has not yet been deemed a total loss or officially declared a Class A mishap. A Class A mishap is any accident that involves loss of life, severe injury, loss of an aircraft, or other damage totaling more than $2.5 million.

All four aircrew ejected safely. Three were treated on base after the accident and released; one Airman required hospitalization. No one else was injured, the base said.

“Flying operations were paused on Jan. 4 to ensure the safety of our Airmen and our airfield,” Oakley said on Jan. 9. “We are carefully assessing checklists and safety procedures to resume flying when safe to do so.”

Weather conditions at the time of the accident were poor, with limited visibility due to dense fog and below-freezing temperatures. Two B-1s assigned to Ellsworth were conducting a local training mission when they came into land on the evening of Jan. 4. The lead aircraft landed without incident, but the second B-1 in the two-ship formation crashed at approximately 5:50 p.m. local time, base officials said.

Oakley said Jan. 9 that an Air Force investigation team was on site as part of a “thorough investigation process” and that evidence from the incident was being preserved. He added that an accident investigation board was expected to begin work and then prepare a publicly releasable report. In that case, the site must be fully documented, with what remains of the B-1 taken for further examination as needed.

An accident investigation board is an intensive, months-long process. Such an investigation probes crew actions, health, rest, and training; the aircraft’s maintenance history; weather conditions; and other factors. A recent investigation into a mishap involving an F-35 found a maintainer left a flashlight in the engine intake, causing nearly $4 million worth of damage. While the report faulted the individual Airman, it also cited a number of contributing factors.

The Air Force has 45 B-1s in its inventory—44 of which are flightworthy following the crash at Ellsworth. The B-1, originally envisioned as a supersonic, nuclear-capable bomber, had to meet extensive demands for airpower over Iraq and Afghanistan over the past two decades after being converted to a purely conventional bomber, leaving the fleet with poor mission-capable rates. The Air Force retired 17 B-1s in recent years to improve reliability, with more spare parts and maintenance crews available to work on a smaller fleet.

B-21 Raider Starts Test Flights out of Edwards Air Force Base

Jan. 18, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The new B-21 Raider bomber made its second ever confirmed flight Jan. 17 at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., just over two months after its first flight.

The Air Force verified the test flight after aviation trackers noted potential chase planes on flight tracking websites. This marks the first known time the Raider has flown from Edwards—its inaugural flight on Nov. 10 started at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif., and concluded at Edwards.

“I can confirm the B-21 flew [Jan. 17]” Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek said in an email statement to Air & Space Forces Magazine. “Flight testing is a critical step in the test campaign managed by the Air Force Test Center and 412th Test Wing’s B-21 Combined Test Force to provide survivable, long-range, penetrating strike capabilities to deter aggression and strategic attacks against the United States, allies, and partners.”

For operational security reasons, the Air Force is not providing further details related to the test program to include the number of flights the aircraft has flown. The service also declined to confirm whether the B-21 that flew Jan. 17 was the same aircraft that conducted the first flight in November. Manufacturer Northrop Grumman has previously said six aircraft are in some stage of production.

The B-21 Raider was unveiled to the public at a ceremony Dec. 2, 2022, in Palmdale, Calif. U.S. Air Force photo

Just like the B-21’s first flight, this latest test was not announced beforehand and no official imagery was released. Outside of the bomber’s public rollout in December 2022 and a few photos released in September 2023, the Air Force has kept the aircraft largely out of sight, though some civilian photographers captured images from taxi tests and the first flight.

The B-21 is a developmental, penetrating strike bomber planned to deliver both conventional and nuclear munitions. Its wingspan is projected to be about 140 feet; smaller than the B-2’s 172-foot wingspan. The service plans to acquire at least 100 B-21s to replace its 45 B-1s and 20 B-2s over the next decade.

The Air Force previously said that B-21 test aircraft will be “usable assets” as soon as they are airworthy, and that the test aircraft will be converted to operational configuration after developmental and operational testing is complete.

The contract for the B-21 was awarded in 2015, and the aircraft is expected to cost around $700 million each in current dollars. The B-21 was officially named the “Raider” in 2016, to honor the Doolittle Raiders of World War II that carried out the first airstrikes against Japan.

Pentagon Official: Space ‘Essential to Any Mission’ as US Confronts Houthis

Jan. 17, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Space-based assets are playing an important role as the U.S. contends with an array of threats in the Middle East.

“In general, space is absolutely essential to any mission the United States military does,” John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, told reporters at the Pentagon on Jan. 17.

Those pivotal capabilities are why U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) was one of the first geographic commands to set up a Space Force component command, SPACECENT, in late 2022.

“SPACECENT, the realization of that is we have a service, we have space effects, the space service, the Space Force, in this case, should be providing those effects,” Plumb said.

While the Pentagon has declined to disclose specific surveillance assets, the Department of Defense has publicly acknowledged airborne assets are helping protect shipping as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian. And when it comes to intelligence on Houthi military capabilities in Yemen and tracking of the group’s missiles, space-based assets are also likely to be at work—though the Pentagon’s top space policy official declined to tip his hand on Jan. 17.

“Missile warning, the imagery” and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, Plumb said, highlighting some key capabilities. “There’s all sorts of things available from space … that affect that particular scenario.”

The U.S. launched yet more strikes against the Houthis in Yemen using U.S. Navy vessels on Jan. 17, U.S. officials said, marking the fourth round of strikes in less than a week.

Fourteen missiles were struck, according to U.S. Central Command. “These missiles on launch rails presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region and could have been fired at any time, prompting U.S. forces to exercise their inherent right and obligation to defend themselves,” CENTCOM said in a statement.

In Yemen, the U.S. has tracked drones and missiles launched by the Houthis, though it has not provided details on how it does so. Commercial ships can also be tracked by satellite online and commercial satellite imagery has provided a look into some of the damage done by the first wave of U.S. and U.K. strikes last week.

The aftermath of a strike on a radar site at Sanaa airport, Yemen, Jan. 12, 2024. Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies.

The U.S. also destroyed four more anti-ship ballistic missile targets on Jan. 16, the U.S. military said.

Those missiles were “prepared to launch” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters on Jan. 17. More than 60 targets in 16 locations were struck with over 150 munitions in the first barrage.

On Jan. 17, CENTCOM announced yet another Houthi attack on a commercial ship, and the U.S. conducted its strikes. Ryder said CENTCOM had the authority to conduct “dynamic” strikes, though it was not clear if that was the case with the strikes on Jan. 17.

“We’re going to continue to do what we need to do to protect our forces but also deter future attacks from the Houthis,” Ryder said before the strikes.

Just like Air Forces Central (AFCENT) and Naval Forces Central (NAVCENT), Space Forces Central Command helps the U.S. respond to whatever contingency arises in the Middle East.

“It’s in our DNA,” Plumb said. “It’s part of the way we fight, it’s part of the way we think, it’s part of the way we operate.”

Robert D. Gaylor, Fifth Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, Dies

Jan. 17, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Robert D. Gaylor, who served from 1977-1979 as the fifth Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, died Jan. 17. He was 92.

Gaylor was appointed to the service’s top enlisted job by chief of staff Gen. David C. Jones—for whom he had served as senior enlisted advisor in U.S. Air Forces in Europe. He also advised Jones’ successor, Gen. Lew Allen Jr., and Air Force Secretary John C. Stetson.

During his tenure as CMSAF, Gaylor focused on leadership training and development in the noncommissioned officer corps—working to open 70 leadership schools across the Air Force—as well as reducing management levels and bread-and-butter issues, such as assignment choice and travel for enlisted families.

He was also instrumental in bringing about uniforms for pregnant women, a non-trivial matter—the Air Force was suffering a brain drain of mid-career women in the mid-1970s because they had no way to serve in uniform. Retention of women rose significantly afterwards.

After his retirement in 1979, Gaylor continued to talk to Airmen across the Air Force about leadership and his experiences in the service, until just a few months before his death. In retirement, he taught leadership and management at USAA, a private insurance firm that focuses on Active-Duty and veteran customers.

Gaylor entered the Air Force in 1948, just a year after the service was created, and after graduation from basic training, chose to be a security policeman. In his early career he was assigned to bases in Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Korea. In a 2017 interview, Gaylor said that only a small handful of those in his basic training class had a high school diploma, and having one helped him excel in his early career.

He attained the rank of master sergeant in 1956 at the age of 25, after just seven years in the service. In the interview, Gaylor said he never had any formal professional military education before becoming a senior master sergeant, and observed that in those days, if a command had no NCO academy, its NCOs went without. He was later determined that Airmen have equal access to PME.

In 1958, master sergeant was the highest enlisted rank in the service, and Gaylor wanted to advance, so he applied to become a warrant officer. His application was returned without action, but he was encouraged to stay in service because the Air Force would be creating two further enlisted ranks: senior master sergeant and chief master sergeant. He reached the new highest enlisted rank in 1968.

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force Robert Gaylor’s official portrait

When NCO academies were created, Gaylor was invited to be among the first instructors.

During the Vietnam War, Gaylor served in Thailand, back in the military police field, after which he went to Strategic Air Command and helped re-establish its NCO academy.

At USAFE, starting in 1971, he traveled around European bases teaching management techniques. The following year he established the USAFE Command Management and Leadership Center, an in-residence 60-hour NCO course. The year after that, Jones chose him as the USAFE Senior Enlisted Advisor.

At the highest ranks, he often had to invent his own duties. While at the Personnel Center, he assigned himself the job of being a leadership mentor and evangelist for the Air Force, traveling widely across the service, and creating NCO academies in as many organizations as possible.

Speaking at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland in August 2023, Gaylor told Airmen that the “three words” that are key to an Air Force career are “‘aptitude’ and ‘attitude’…which leads to ‘opportunity.’”

His formula for success, he said, was “every day, every day, every day: attitude, aptitude, head on straight, team player. There is no magic formula. It is a simple process.”

Gerald R. Murray, the 14th Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force from 2002-2006, said Gaylor was “the most beloved” among the former CMSAFs and had an unrivaled “love for our Airmen and Guardians, and families.”

Gaylor was “a gifted orator” who, with “ever-refreshing messages and delightful humor always uplifted the spirit of all who were in his company, or had the opportunity to hear him speak, whether individually or in a large audience,” Murray said.

Gaylor “remained an active Airman … leader, advocate, supporter, mentor and dear friend to the very last day of his life, leaving a legacy like no other before or after. A legend among us, he was truly one of a kind,” Murray added.

In 2006, the NCO Leadership Academy at Lackland Air Force Base, Texas, was named in Gaylor’s honor.

New Report: Space Force Needs to Plus-Up for Cislunar Competition

Jan. 17, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

As China pushes deeper into space, exploring and even seeking to control territory on the moon, the Pentagon and Congress must move quickly to ensure freedom of operations in cislunar space—or risk ceding the the vast expanse between geosynchronous orbit and the moon to a rival, officials and experts say.

“Failure to act now will limit future options, create an unsustainable precedent in the cislunar environment, or even surrender U.S. leadership in space and weaken U.S. leadership globally,” warned retired Space Force Col. Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute, in a new paper, “Securing Cislunar Space and the First Island Chain Off the Coast of Earth.”

Equating cislunar space and the Moon to the first and second island chains in the waters around China, Galbreath sees the competition for advantage in the cislunar regime as akin to naval competition in the age of exploration.

Even definitions are beginning to change. For years, “deep space” in the U.S. military context meant geosynchronous orbit (GEO), the zone about 36,000 miles from the Earth’s surface where the biggest and most expensive U.S. space assets operate, said Joel B. Mozer, former director of science, technology, and research for the Space Force, during a rollout event for Galbreath’s paper.

Now, however, the complex region is getting more attention. The Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate co-published a “primer” on cislunar space in 2021, laying out in clear terms the unique challenges of the region. Those challenges begin with its sheer expanse—equivalent, Mozer said, to “280,000 Earths”—and the challenging orbital dynamics that occur as objects get further from Earth and closer to the moon. Once far enough away to be affected by the gravitational pulls of both the Moon and the Earth, orbits change rapidly and become far harder to calculate and predict.

Driving interest in deep space are the many of the same factors as were in play at the dawn of the age of terrestrial exploration: potential scientific and economic interests. Both the U.S. and China have begun to amass allies in this new space race, and activities in cislunar space are expected to ramp up rapidly in the 2030s and beyond.

Galbreath argues the next few years are crucial. “Given a lack of established international norms, this will be just like any other era of territorial exploration and expansion—those who arrive first set the terms,” he wrote. Galbreath stressed during the rollout that he is not advocating for placing weapons in cislunar space, which could violate the Outer Space Treaty, which was designed to ensure peaceful space exploration. But he and others say China’s ambitions and the historical record are proof that the U.S. must be prepared.

“Human history says that when humanity goes to uncharted places and starts to interact with each other, that the need for defense has followed,” said then-Lt. Gen. Stephen N. Whiting at the Spacepower conference in Orlando, Fla., in December. “And as the economy moves out to new places like the moon, asteroids, Mars, you [may] need a military, just like when the countries of old would find a new uncharted place and start to develop the resources there needed a navy to protect that. That day is coming.”

Galbreath cited Ye Peijian, the head of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, who in 2015 compared the moon and Mars to the disputed islands in the East and South China Seas.

“The universe is an ocean, the moon is the Diaoyu Islands, Mars is Huangyan Island,” Peijan said then. “If we don’t go there now even though we’re capable of doing so, then we will be blamed by our descendants. If others go there, then they will take over, and you won’t be able to go even if you want to. This is reason enough.”

Such comments, Galbreath said, “invite comparison to the gray zone tactics demonstrated by China in pursuit of their self-interested goals and actions directed in isolation through their authoritarian regime, such as covert weaponization, territorial claims, coercion, and other aggressive behavior—conduct they have repeatedly and increasingly displayed in the Western Pacific.”

In response, the U.S. Space Force and Space Command should build out the infrastructures necessary to monitor and, if necessary, respond to threats in cislunar space, Galbreath recommended.

Already the Pentagon has started, establishing the 19th Space Defense Squadron to lead space domain awareness in cislunar and extra-geosynchronous areas, and also developing Oracle, an AFRL satellite for tracking objects in cislunar space, which is projected to launch in 2026. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has also funded a study on the lunar economy.

More is needed, and quickly, Galbreath argues. “An immediate, modest additive investment by Congress to the Space Force over the next five years will have a profound and lasting impact on the stability of new areas of space exploration, starting in the cislunar regime but extending further into the solar system,” he wrote. “This is a foundational era, and the U.S. must engage appropriately.”

Galbreath says a nominal investment of $250 million per year in new funding over the next five years, plus 200 Guardians focused on the mission, will accelerate U.S. understanding, capability, and capacity, and could stimulate further commercial development.

“Given that the United States is competing with adversaries in this domain, failure to act now will result in a capability gap,” he writes. “The initial efforts of AFRL and DARPA are excellent starts, but more needs to be done. This demands additive funding.”

Galbreath recommended that the Space Force and U.S. Space Command:

Develop cislunar experts

Establish doctrine, concepts of operations, and requirements to accelerate the race to the Moon and secure interests there

Work with AFRL and DARPA to invest in cislunar research

Invest to transition researchinto operational capabilities.

Allvin’s New Reading List Is All About Change

Jan. 17, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin unveiled his first selections for the “CSAF Leadership Library,” a list heavy on organizational change amid uncertainty, a nod to the sweeping “re-optimization” service leaders expect to reveal next month.

Allvin pledged in a memo accompanying the list to gather feedback from Airmen on today’s “Library,” which his predecessor, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., expanded to include podcasts, films, and other media during his tenure.

“Your opinions matter and are vital in defining what we value as an organization and what is essential for your leadership journey,” Allvin wrote. “I invite you to actively participate and share your thoughts. I will be introducing a series of initiatives to gather feedback and engagement from you. This process will be iterative, guided by your evolving needs and interests.”

Allvin’s additions include two books, one podcast, and one commentary:

“One Mission,” by Chris Fussell: Authored by a former Navy SEAL, the book is “a dynamic guide that offers takeaways from real-world examples of successful organizational changes,” Allvin said, along with “insights into revolutionizing large organizations.”

“Analogies at War,” by Yuen Foong Khong: The book examines the Vietnam War and “how historical analogies influence political decision-making,” Allvin wrote. “Khong’s book not only unveils the cognitive processes shaping policy choices but also serves as a resource for challenging assumptions and avoiding cognitive traps in contemporary decision-making.”

“The Path to AI Arms Control: America and China Must Work Together to Avert Catastrophe,” by Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison: This article, published in Foreign Affairs, “underscores the importance of swift action and collaboration to address the potential consequences of unregulated AI development,” Allvin wrote.

“How to Excel When Everything Is Changing,” by Brad Stulberg: In this podcast, Stulberg details a “’4 Ps’ approach—Pause, Process, Plan, Proceed—shaping a mindset of thoughtful response over impulsive reaction,” Allvin wrote.

Allvin’s timely emphasis on change and challenging assumptions and initial reactions comes as Air Force leadership prepares to roll out the results of its “re-optimization” review, initiated in September by Secretary Frank Kendall. Kendall launched the review after concluding the Air Force and Space Force were not fully ready, prepared, or organized for conflict with a peer competitor as China is today. Officials anticipate major changes for the services’ organizational structure, training, and weapons development, especially with regard to how the services adapt and respond to new challenges from China.

Kendall said in September he wanted initial implementation plans by January 2024 and he and the service chiefs are expected to disclose their vision at the AFA Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colo., Feb. 12.

Northrop Grumman Reports Successful Test of LGM-35A Sentinel Second Stage Rocket

Jan. 16, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Northrop Grumman successfully tested the second stage solid-rocket motor of the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile at the Air Force’s Arnold Engineering Development Complex at Tullahoma, Tenn., the company announced Jan. 16.

“The test was conducted in a vacuum chamber simulating real-world flight environmental conditions the solid-rocket motor would experience during high-altitude and space flight,” the company said in a press release.

Northrop Grumman did not disclose the exact date or duration of the burn and could not be reached for comment.

The test follows a successful trial of the first stage, carried out at the company’s Promontory, Utah, facilities in March 2023. That test was a full-scale static test fire with the rocket also mounted on a stand, but fired outdoors, since it will burn within the atmosphere. Sentinel is a three-stage missile, and Northrop will build stages one and two.

Test data are being analyzed “to determine how motor performance matched digitally engineered model predictions, critical to maturing the design and lowering risk,” the company said. Following this development effort, Northrop “will begin a series rocket motor qualification testing for both stages.”

The test “moves us forward for qualification testing in partnership with the Air Force,” Northrop vice president and Sentinel program manager Sarah Willoughby said in a statement. The test provides “an accurate reading of our design’s performance and now informs our modeling and designs,” lowering risk and building confidence in the design, she said.

The test comes as a welcome step forward for the $13.3 billion Sentinel development program, which Pentagon officials say may be headed for schedule slips and cost overruns. Though the missile design was vetted through what USAF officials have touted as “millions” of iterations in its digital design phase, numerous officials and watchdogs have warned that its staggering scope puts its planned initial operational capability—in late spring of 2030—in doubt.

Brig. Gen. Colin J. Connor, head of Global Strike Command’s ICBM Modernization Directorate, said in late November that a new program schedule would be developed by the end of 2023.

Global Strike commanders and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall have said reaching initial operational capability by Fall 2030 is a “no fail” date that must be met if the U.S. strategic deterrent is to be maintained at current strength.

Kendall said in a November event of the Center for New American Security that Sentinel is “quite honestly, struggling a little bit” but declined to say more because he is recused from program actions due to his prior employment. Kendall said he’s “nervous” about the sprawling program, which calls for replacing more than 400 Minuteman III ICBMs with all-new missiles in refurbished and modernized silos across five states, along with an all-new command-and-control system. Sentinel is “probably the biggest thing … the Air Force has ever taken on,” he said.

The Government Accountability Office assessed in June that Sentinel is probably a year behind schedule, “due to staffing shortfalls, delays with clearance processing, and classified information technology infrastructure challenges,” as well as “supply chain disruptions.”

The program’s master schedule contains “many deficiencies,” the GAO said, and should be discarded in favor of a new plan.

Sentinel is currently projected to cost about $85 billion. Kendall and the GAO agreed that early cost estimates suffered from the Air Force not having attempted a program of such magnitude since the 1970s and thus being out of practice in understanding the costs and challenges involved.

Critical design review for the Sentinel is expected in the spring, but Pentagon officials have warned that may slip.

B-2 Bombers Return to Red Flag, Joined by Australian F-35s and UK Typhoons

Jan. 16, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Three B-2 Spirit bombers made their return for the first Red Flag exercise of 2024 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., this week, alongside the U.K.’s Royal Air Force and the Royal Australian Air Force.

More than 30 units and 2,000 personnel are participating in the air combat training, deemed by the participating allies as one of the “most advanced” and “toughest” training opportunities in the world.

The exercise kicked off Jan. 15 and will incorporate realistic, high-end combat scenarios through Jan. 26.

The B-2 Spirits will concentrate on increasing interoperability, training against scenarios involving a contested, degraded, and operationally limited environment, 2nd Lt. Lindsey A. Weichel of the 509th Bomb Wing told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The stealth bombers, usually a regular presence at Red Flag in recent years, did not fly in last year’s first edition of Red Flag due to a safety stand-down—though the exercise virtually simulated the aircraft and crew members participated. The B-2 eventually returned for Red Flag-Alaska 23-3, flying deep into the Arctic Circle in August 2023.

This latest Red Flag exercise at Nellis will also involve:

U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning IIs

U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors

Royal Air Force FGR-4 Typhoon fighters

Royal Australian Air Force F-35As

U.S. Navy EA-18G Growlers

Six Royal Air Force FGR-4 Typhoons prepare to land for Red Flag-Nellis 24-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Jan. 10, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis

“Training prioritizes first timer’s combat missions, mission commander upgrades, integration and flag unique experiences that contribute most to readiness and partnering,” Col. Eric Winterbottom, commander of the 414th Combat Training Squadron, said in a release. He added that this training is vital for Airmen to operate independently to bolster the mission’s resilience and survivability.

Nearly 100 aircraft are departing the base twice per day, with some of them staying airborne for up to five hours. The training will see night launches taking place to simulate nighttime combat operations as well.

This iteration also marks the first participation of the Australian F-35As since the RAAF joined the exercise since 1980.

“Exercise Red Flag Nellis will test every facet of our F-35A capability, allow us to integrate with our American and British allies, and practice how we project force on combat operations.” Wing Commander Adrian Kiely, Commanding Officer of No. 3 Squadron of RAAF, said in a release.

A Royal Australian Air Force F-35A lands at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Jan. 10, 2024 in preparation for Red Flag-Nellis 24-1. U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis

Established in 1975, Red Flag was initially designed to train Air Force pilots intensively in air combat sorties, drawing lessons from the Vietnam War. With the Pentagon focusing on China, the exercise has shifted to expand over the Pacific.

This year’s iteration aligns with the 2022 National Defense Strategy and focuses on deterring aggression, addressing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and Europe and building a joint force.

There are typically three Red Flag exercises per year: a U.S.-only session, one open to Five Eyes nations (U.K., Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), and another including a broader roster of global allies.