New Report: Space Force Needs to Plus-Up for Cislunar Competition

New Report: Space Force Needs to Plus-Up for Cislunar Competition

Jan. 17, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

As China pushes deeper into space, exploring and even seeking to control territory on the moon, the Pentagon and Congress must move quickly to ensure freedom of operations in cislunar space—or risk ceding the the vast expanse between geosynchronous orbit and the moon to a rival, officials and experts say. 

“Failure to act now will limit future options, create an unsustainable precedent in the cislunar environment, or even surrender U.S. leadership in space and weaken U.S. leadership globally,” warned retired Space Force Col. Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute, in a new paper, “Securing Cislunar Space and the First Island Chain Off the Coast of Earth.”

Equating cislunar space and the Moon to the first and second island chains in the waters around China, Galbreath sees the competition for advantage in the cislunar regime as akin to naval competition in the age of exploration.

Even definitions are beginning to change. For years, “deep space” in the U.S. military context meant geosynchronous orbit (GEO), the zone about 36,000 miles from the Earth’s surface where the biggest and most expensive U.S. space assets operate, said Joel B. Mozer, former director of science, technology, and research for the Space Force, during a rollout event for Galbreath’s paper. 

Now, however, the complex region is getting more attention. The Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate co-published a “primer” on cislunar space in 2021, laying out in clear terms the unique challenges of the region. Those challenges begin with its sheer expanse—equivalent, Mozer said, to “280,000 Earths”—and the challenging orbital dynamics that occur as objects get further from Earth and closer to the moon. Once far enough away to be affected by the gravitational pulls of both the Moon and the Earth, orbits change rapidly and become far harder to calculate and predict. 

Driving interest in deep space are the many of the same factors as were in play at the dawn of the age of terrestrial exploration: potential scientific and economic interests. Both the U.S. and China have begun to amass allies in this new space race, and activities in cislunar space are expected to ramp up rapidly in the 2030s and beyond.

Galbreath argues the next few years are crucial. “Given a lack of established international norms, this will be just like any other era of territorial exploration and expansion—those who arrive first set the terms,” he wrote. Galbreath stressed during the rollout that he is not advocating for placing weapons in cislunar space, which could violate the Outer Space Treaty, which was designed to ensure peaceful space exploration. But he and others say China’s ambitions and the historical record are proof that the U.S. must be prepared. 

“Human history says that when humanity goes to uncharted places and starts to interact with each other, that the need for defense has followed,” said then-Lt. Gen. Stephen N. Whiting at the Spacepower conference in Orlando, Fla., in December. “And as the economy moves out to new places like the moon, asteroids, Mars, you [may] need a military, just like when the countries of old would find a new uncharted place and start to develop the resources there needed a navy to protect that. That day is coming.” 

Galbreath cited Ye Peijian, the head of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, who in 2015 compared the moon and Mars to the disputed islands in the East and South China Seas. 

“The universe is an ocean, the moon is the Diaoyu Islands, Mars is Huangyan Island,” Peijan said then. “If we don’t go there now even though we’re capable of doing so, then we will be blamed by our descendants. If others go there, then they will take over, and you won’t be able to go even if you want to. This is reason enough.”

Such comments, Galbreath said, “invite comparison to the gray zone tactics demonstrated by China in pursuit of their self-interested goals and actions directed in isolation through their authoritarian regime, such as covert weaponization, territorial claims, coercion, and other aggressive behavior—conduct they have repeatedly and increasingly displayed in the Western Pacific.”

In response, the U.S. Space Force and Space Command should build out the infrastructures necessary to monitor and, if necessary, respond to threats in cislunar space, Galbreath recommended. 

Already the Pentagon has started, establishing the 19th Space Defense Squadron to lead space domain awareness in cislunar and extra-geosynchronous areas, and also developing Oracle, an AFRL satellite for tracking objects in cislunar space, which is projected to launch in 2026. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has also funded a study on the lunar economy. 

More is needed, and quickly, Galbreath argues. “An immediate, modest additive investment by Congress to the Space Force over the next five years will have a profound and lasting impact on the stability of new areas of space exploration, starting in the cislunar regime but extending further into the solar system,” he wrote. “This is a foundational era, and the U.S. must engage appropriately.” 

Galbreath says a nominal investment of $250 million per year in new funding over the next five years, plus 200 Guardians focused on the mission, will accelerate U.S. understanding, capability, and capacity, and could stimulate further commercial development.  

“Given that the United States is competing with adversaries in this domain, failure to act now will result in a capability gap,” he writes. “The initial efforts of AFRL and DARPA are excellent starts, but more needs to be done. This demands additive funding.” 

Galbreath recommended that the Space Force and U.S. Space Command: 

  • Develop cislunar experts 
  • Establish doctrine, concepts of operations, and requirements to accelerate the race to the Moon and secure interests there 
  • Work with AFRL and DARPA to invest in cislunar research  
  • Invest to transition researchinto operational capabilities. 
Allvin’s New Reading List Is All About Change

Allvin’s New Reading List Is All About Change

Jan. 17, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin unveiled his first selections for the “CSAF Leadership Library,” a list heavy on organizational change amid uncertainty, a nod to the sweeping “re-optimization” service leaders expect to reveal next month.  

Allvin pledged in a memo accompanying the list to gather feedback from Airmen on today’s “Library,” which his predecessor, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., expanded to include podcasts, films, and other media during his tenure. 

“Your opinions matter and are vital in defining what we value as an organization and what is essential for your leadership journey,” Allvin wrote. “I invite you to actively participate and share your thoughts. I will be introducing a series of initiatives to gather feedback and engagement from you. This process will be iterative, guided by your evolving needs and interests.” 

Allvin’s additions include two books, one podcast, and one commentary: 

Allvin’s timely emphasis on change and challenging assumptions and initial reactions comes as Air Force leadership prepares to roll out the results of its “re-optimization” review, initiated in September by Secretary Frank Kendall. Kendall launched the review after concluding the Air Force and Space Force were not fully ready, prepared, or organized for conflict with a peer competitor as China is today. Officials anticipate major changes for the services’ organizational structure, training, and weapons development, especially with regard to how the services adapt and respond to new challenges from China. 

Kendall said in September he wanted initial implementation plans by January 2024 and he and the service chiefs are expected to disclose their vision at the AFA Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colo., Feb. 12. 

Northrop Grumman Reports Successful Test of LGM-35A Sentinel Second Stage Rocket

Northrop Grumman Reports Successful Test of LGM-35A Sentinel Second Stage Rocket

Jan. 16, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Northrop Grumman successfully tested the second stage solid-rocket motor of the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile at the Air Force’s Arnold Engineering Development Complex at Tullahoma, Tenn., the company announced Jan. 16.

“The test was conducted in a vacuum chamber simulating real-world flight environmental conditions the solid-rocket motor would experience during high-altitude and space flight,” the company said in a press release.

Northrop Grumman did not disclose the exact date or duration of the burn and could not be reached for comment.

The test follows a successful trial of the first stage, carried out at the company’s Promontory, Utah, facilities in March 2023. That test was a full-scale static test fire with the rocket also mounted on a stand, but fired outdoors, since it will burn within the atmosphere. Sentinel is a three-stage missile, and Northrop will build stages one and two.  

Test data are being analyzed “to determine how motor performance matched digitally engineered model predictions, critical to maturing the design and lowering risk,” the company said. Following this development effort, Northrop “will begin a series rocket motor qualification testing for both stages.”

The test “moves us forward for qualification testing in partnership with the Air Force,” Northrop vice president and Sentinel program manager Sarah Willoughby said in a statement. The test provides “an accurate reading of our design’s performance and now informs our modeling and designs,” lowering risk and building confidence in the design, she said.

The test comes as a welcome step forward for the $13.3 billion Sentinel development program, which Pentagon officials say may be headed for schedule slips and cost overruns. Though the missile design was vetted through what USAF officials have touted as “millions” of iterations in its digital design phase, numerous officials and watchdogs have warned that its staggering scope puts its planned initial operational capability—in late spring of 2030—in doubt.

Brig. Gen. Colin J. Connor, head of Global Strike Command’s ICBM Modernization Directorate, said in late November that a new program schedule would be developed by the end of 2023.

Global Strike commanders and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall have said reaching initial operational capability by Fall 2030 is a “no fail” date that must be met if the U.S. strategic deterrent is to be maintained at current strength.

Kendall said in a November event of the Center for New American Security that Sentinel is “quite honestly, struggling a little bit” but declined to say more because he is recused from program actions due to his prior employment. Kendall said he’s “nervous” about the sprawling program, which calls for replacing more than 400 Minuteman III ICBMs with all-new missiles in refurbished and modernized silos across five states, along with an all-new command-and-control system. Sentinel is “probably the biggest thing … the Air Force has ever taken on,” he said.

The Government Accountability Office assessed in June that Sentinel is probably a year behind schedule, “due to staffing shortfalls, delays with clearance processing, and classified information technology infrastructure challenges,” as well as “supply chain disruptions.”

The program’s master schedule contains “many deficiencies,” the GAO said, and should be discarded in favor of a new plan.

Sentinel is currently projected to cost about $85 billion. Kendall and the GAO agreed that early cost estimates suffered from the Air Force not having attempted a program of such magnitude since the 1970s and thus being out of practice in understanding the costs and challenges involved.

Critical design review for the Sentinel is expected in the spring, but Pentagon officials have warned that may slip.  

B-2 Bombers Return to Red Flag, Joined by Australian F-35s and UK Typhoons

B-2 Bombers Return to Red Flag, Joined by Australian F-35s and UK Typhoons

Jan. 16, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Three B-2 Spirit bombers made their return for the first Red Flag exercise of 2024 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., this week, alongside the U.K.’s Royal Air Force and the Royal Australian Air Force.

More than 30 units and 2,000 personnel are participating in the air combat training, deemed by the participating allies as one of the “most advanced” and “toughest” training opportunities in the world.

The exercise kicked off Jan. 15 and will incorporate realistic, high-end combat scenarios through Jan. 26.

The B-2 Spirits will concentrate on increasing interoperability, training against scenarios involving a contested, degraded, and operationally limited environment, 2nd Lt. Lindsey A. Weichel of the 509th Bomb Wing told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The stealth bombers, usually a regular presence at Red Flag in recent years, did not fly in last year’s first edition of Red Flag due to a safety stand-down—though the exercise virtually simulated the aircraft and crew members participated. The B-2 eventually returned for Red Flag-Alaska 23-3, flying deep into the Arctic Circle in August 2023.

This latest Red Flag exercise at Nellis will also involve:

  • U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning IIs
  • U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors
  • Royal Air Force FGR-4 Typhoon fighters
  • Royal Australian Air Force F-35As
  • U.S. Navy EA-18G Growlers
Six Royal Air Force FGR-4 Typhoons prepare to land for Red Flag-Nellis 24-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Jan. 10, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis

“Training prioritizes first timer’s combat missions, mission commander upgrades, integration and flag unique experiences that contribute most to readiness and partnering,” Col. Eric Winterbottom, commander of the 414th Combat Training Squadron, said in a release. He added that this training is vital for Airmen to operate independently to bolster the mission’s resilience and survivability.

Nearly 100 aircraft are departing the base twice per day, with some of them staying airborne for up to five hours. The training will see night launches taking place to simulate nighttime combat operations as well.

This iteration also marks the first participation of the Australian F-35As since the RAAF joined the exercise since 1980.

“Exercise Red Flag Nellis will test every facet of our F-35A capability, allow us to integrate with our American and British allies, and practice how we project force on combat operations.” Wing Commander Adrian Kiely, Commanding Officer of No. 3 Squadron of RAAF, said in a release.

A Royal Australian Air Force F-35A lands at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Jan. 10, 2024 in preparation for Red Flag-Nellis 24-1. U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis

Established in 1975, Red Flag was initially designed to train Air Force pilots intensively in air combat sorties, drawing lessons from the Vietnam War. With the Pentagon focusing on China, the exercise has shifted to expand over the Pacific.

This year’s iteration aligns with the 2022 National Defense Strategy and focuses on deterring aggression, addressing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and Europe and building a joint force.

There are typically three Red Flag exercises per year: a U.S.-only session, one open to Five Eyes nations (U.K., Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), and another including a broader roster of global allies.

U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Reynaldo Garza, 509th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron crew chief, marshalls a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber as it arrives for Red Flag 24-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., Jan. 11, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by 2nd Lt. Lindsey Weichel
Three B-2 Spirit stealth bombers arrive for Red Flag 24-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., Jan. 11, 2024. Red Flag is an annual exercise that increases interoperability between partner nations and across the joint force as Airmen and Guardians train together against high-end, realistic scenarios. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Bryson Britt)
3 Firms to Split $2.5B for New Missile Warning, Tracking, and Defense Satellites

3 Firms to Split $2.5B for New Missile Warning, Tracking, and Defense Satellites

Jan. 16, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Development Agency awarded a combined $2.5 billion to L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, and Sierra Space for 54 satellites in its new missile warning/missile tracking (MW/MT) and missile defense constellation.

The buy—48 MW/MT satellites and six for missile defense sats—will be evenly distributed among the three suppliers, with each building 16 MW/MT satellites and two missile defense satellites for Tranche 2 of SDA’s Tracking Layer. The satellites, all in low-Earth orbit, will become part of the Space Force’s overall Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, a massive planned constellation of satellites.

The MW/MT satellites are designed to detect and track missile launches from space, using wide field-of-view infrared sensors. The missile defense satellites will have a mix of wide- and medium-field-of-view infrared sensors to generate high-quality fire control tracks to assist ground forces to intercept missiles, according to an SDA official.

Tranche 2 is set to launch no later than April 2027. It will expand the regional coverage offered by Tranche 1 into “global stereo coverage for missile warning/missile tracking,” the official said. “That’s multiple satellites looking at any point on the earth.”

SDA worked with the Missile Defense Agency to refine the requirements and technology for these satellites, the official added, pointing to MDA’s own Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensors program, two of which will launch alongside SDA satellites later this year.

“We’re looking to proliferate in future tranches, working with MDA so that we can get that fire control fidelity to support programs like Glide Phase Interceptor and other programs that could use that data to intercept threats,” the official said.

Both programs will work in concert with the Space Force’s existing Space-Based Infrared System, geosynchronous orbit satellites for missile warning.

“All of the assets that we have on orbit for missile warning/missile tracking are going to share their data to a shared network,” the official said. “Anyone who wants to get the data from SBIRS, from [medium-Earth orbit,] LEO, they will be able to get all of it. So it’ll be as seamless as possible to the warfighter.”

SDA plans a final constellation of about 100 MW/MT satellites in low-Earth orbit. Tranche 0, intended to demonstrate capabilities, but not for operational use, consists of eight spacecraft—four now on orbit, plus another four awaiting launch. Tranche 1, with 35 satellites, is slated to start launching in April 2025.

L3Harris was previously selected to build satellites for both the Tranche 0 and Tranche 1 Tracking Layers, and Lockheed Martin has won awards for all three tranches of the Transport Layer, which provides communications and data transmission. But Sierra Space is a new winner in SDA’s periodic competitions.

“We’re pleased to welcome Sierra Space, a new entrant as a prime vendor on Team SDA, as we continue working with L3Harris and Lockheed Martin on Tranche 2,” SDA director Derek Tournear said in a statement. “The marketplace is responding to the demand signals for our spiral development model. The agile response across the space industry is critically important as we deliver to the warfighter this no-fail mission capability of missile warning, missile tracking, and missile defense.”

SDA selected the three winners from among nine proposals, an official told reporters. The final contract awards were:

  • $919 million for L3Harris
  • $890 million for Lockheed Martin
  • $740 million for Sierra Space

The official added that the average cost per MW/MT satellite will be $46 million, while the missile defense satellites will cost around $52 million each. In a release, Sierra Space noted that its deal includes a $20 million incentive for on-time delivery.

First, though, Congress needs to pass a budget, rather than keep the Pentagon operating under a continuing resolution as it has been since Oct. 1.

“We’re able to award these contracts and get started with kickoff and some initial milestones, but we certainly need a budget passed in March or earlier,” the SDA official said. “Otherwise we have to make some tough decisions and how we execute our programs.”

An SDA spokeswoman clarified that a continuing resolution, which keeps spending levels frozen at the previous year’s levels and prevents new programs from starting, could delay the timeline for the Tranche 2 Tracking Layer—an especially discouraging possibility given that Tournear has said the agency prioritizes speed in acquisition above all else.

SDA now has 417 satellites on contract, in addition to the 28 in Tranche 0 that are either in orbit or preparing to launch. The agency is pushing for an ambitious schedule of “spiral development,” with new tranches going up every two years and between 400 and 500 satellites constantly operational.

Such numbers would dramatically expand the Space Force’s fleet of satellites, which numbered 83 unclassified satellites as of Sept. 30, 2022.

Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture

TRANCHELAYER# OF SATELLITESCONTRACTORS
0Transport20York Space Systems, Lockheed Martin
Tracking8SpaceX, L3Harris
1Transport126York Space Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman
Tracking35L3Harris, Northrop Gumman, Raytheon
Demonstration and Experimentation System12York Space Systems
2Transport (Beta)90Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Rocket Lab
Transport (Alpha)100York Space Systems, Northrop Grumman
Transport (Gamma)20 (approx.)TBA
Tracking54L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, Sierra Space
Demonstration and Experimentation System20 (approx.)TBA
Quick Actions Earn F-15E Pilot the Mackay Trophy for Daring Secret Mission

Quick Actions Earn F-15E Pilot the Mackay Trophy for Daring Secret Mission

Jan. 16, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

An F-15E Strike Eagle pilot was honored last week with the 2022 Mackay Trophy, awarded by the Air Force and the National Aeronautic Association for that year’s most meritorious flight. 

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin presented the award to Maj. Stephen Keck on Jan. 11 at Nellis Air Force Base, where Keck now serves in the 422nd Test and Evaluation Squadron.  Keck was the Defensive Counter-Air Team Lead in 2022, with the 335th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, when he and his weapon system officer, Lt. Col. John Rabun, “identified a critical error during ingress that would have given away” a special operations team’s position.

“In response, Keck and Rabun corrected the error by being proactive and shifting to a more aggressive posture of their forces,” according to a press release. “During the mission, Keck also identified an adversary aircraft in the contested airspace and initiated an intercept to ensure the safety of ground forces. Ultimately, the success of the operation resulted in the capture of a senior terrorist leader.” 

The 335th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron deployed from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., to the Middle East from April to October 2022, but the squadron’s precise location was never disclosed. 

U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles, assigned to the 335th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, fly alongside Saudi Arabian Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles during an agile combat employment exercise Agile Spartan within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Sep. 5, 2022. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Christian Sullivan

“When we flew that night, we had a very well developed and understood game plan that enabled our ability to operate at our best,” Keck said in the release. “Flying alongside other folks at the top of their game ready to use their capabilities to fight our enemies and protect our allies was an awesome feeling.” 

Much of the Air Force’s combat operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility have been in support of the anti-ISIS mission in Syria and Iraq.

The Mackay Trophy was first awarded in 1912 and has gone to such Air Force legends as Gen. Henry H. Arnold, Medal of Honor winner Capt. Eddie Rickenbacker, Brig. Gen. Chuck Yeager, and Vietnam aces Col. Charles B. DeBellevue, Lt. Col. Jeffrey S. Feinstein, and Brig. Gen. R. Stephen Ritchie. 

“Maj. Keck’s inspiring actions reflect exactly what it takes to be a stellar Airman and aviator—ingenuity, tenacity, and audacity,” Allvin said. 

In 2021, the trophy went to a pair of AC-130J Ghostrider crews who aided in the evacuation of American diplomats from Kabul, Afghanistan, and accomplished the longest unaugmented flight in AC-130J history. This was the eighth consecutive Mackay Trophy awarded to Airmen for actions in the CENTCOM AOR. 

Mackay Trophy
The Clarence Mackay Trophy, as it was in 2019, at the National Aeronautic Association’s Fall Awards dinner. Courtesy photo.
Pentagon Reveals Second Wave of Strikes Against Houthis in Yemen

Pentagon Reveals Second Wave of Strikes Against Houthis in Yemen

Jan. 12, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

U.S. and British forces have carried out airstrikes and sea-launched cruise missile attacks on nearly 30 locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, the Pentagon said Jan. 12, striking a dozen more sites than were previously revealed.

The additional strikes were conducted during the overnight hours of Jan. 12 and followed an initial wave of attacks that were intended to degrade the Houthis’ capabilities to attack shipping in the Red Sea, Director of Operations for the Joint Staff Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims II told reporters.

All told, more than 150 precision munitions were employed against more than 60 targets spread out over 28 locations, Sims said.

The initial wave of attacks were directed against “command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems,” Air Forces Central commander Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich said in a statement. The follow-up attacks were more dynamic in nature, U.S. officials said.

“Based on the hostile act, hostile intent, a determination that those weapon systems would be employed against the maritime or air forces, and as a result, they struck those targets,” Sims said of the second wave of attacks, which occurred shortly after the first strikes.

That wasn’t the end of it. An additional “follow-on” strike was carried out against a Houthi radar site in Yemen in the early morning hours of Jan. 13 local time using Tomahawk cruise missiles from the destroyer USS Carney, U.S. Central Command said. The purpose was to neutralize a target that wasn’t fully destroyed in a previous strike, U.S. officials said.

The earlier strikes were carried out by U.S. Navy aircraft from the Carrier Air Wing Three on USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, the guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely and USS Mason, the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, and an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, Sims said. 

The British government said four Royal Air Force Typhoons were involved in the strike and struck an airfield and a drone facility. U.S. Air Force assets were also involved, though officials did not specify which platforms.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group that controls most of Yemen, have carried out 28 attacks on commercial shipping since mid-November, with the latest occurring soon after the U.S. and U.K. strikes. 

On Jan. 1, President Joe Biden asked for military options after a Dec. 31 clash in which Navy helicopters came to the rescue of a commercial vessel the Houthis were attacking and sank three small Houthi boats. The U.S. and 12 other countries then issued a joint statement on Jan. 3 warning of “consequences” if attacks continued. But that did not deter the Houthis, who on Jan. 9 mounted their largest attack yet, launching drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.

“On Tuesday, Jan. 9, nearly 20 drones and multiple missiles were launched in multiple salvos directly against U.S. ships,” a senior administration official told reporters on Jan. 11. “This attack was defeated by the U.S. and UK naval forces working jointly as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, the defensive coalition established last month in response to these attacks. If not for this defensive mission, we have no doubt that ships would have been struck, perhaps even sunk, including, in one case, a commercial ship full of jet fuel.”

After that attack, Biden convened a meeting of his national security team and directed Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III to carry out a military response, the official added.

“We will make sure we respond to the Houthis if they continue this outrageous behavior along with our allies,” Biden told reporters on Jan. 12.

Iran and the so-called Axis of Resistance militia groups Tehran arms have carried a range of strikes against U.S. forces and international shipping since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Iranian-backed militias have carried out more than 130 attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, while the Houthis have sought to attack Israel and commercial shipping.

The Biden administration says that its goal is to deter future attacks without broadening the fighting in the Middle East. 

“This was a comprehensive strike intended to not only back up last week’s diplomatic statement but to do real damage to the Houthis’ ability to conduct more of these attacks,” former CENTCOM commander retired Army Gen. Joseph L. Votel told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“In and of itself, it will probably be insufficient because it is likely the Houthis will attempt to test us again,” said Votel. “That means we need to be prepared to do it again and reinforce the message that we find these unprovoked attacks on shipping unacceptable.”

“Iran may try to test us as well and we need to be sending very clear messages that they should not do this,” Votel added. “We need all of our elements of national power being applied in a coherent strategy.”

Commercial and military vessels are at particular risk near Yemen because they must use Bab el-Mandeb strait to cross between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a critical chokepoint. 

Nearly 15 percent of seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea, which connects to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. Many commercial shippers have been forced to divert ships around the southern coast of Africa, causing significant delays and costs for the global economy, with some carmakers announcing halts in production. The White House said 2,000 ships have been forced to divert and more than 50 countries have been affected by the attacks.

“This cannot stand,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak added.

But U.S. officials said they were clear-eyed about the continuing Houthi threat.

“It seems within the DNA” to continue attacks, Sims said. “I would hope that they don’t retaliate, but we’re prepared in the event that they do,” he said.

New Defense Industrial Base Strategy Warns of Long Recovery to Reverse Atrophy

New Defense Industrial Base Strategy Warns of Long Recovery to Reverse Atrophy

Jan. 12, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The decline of the defense industrial base happened over 30 years—each decrement a logical response to world events—and turning it around to deal with modern realities won’t be quick, according to the first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy released Jan. 11. But the Biden administration is touting the steps it has taken already to inject more vigor and resiliency into its defense enterprise, even as it prepares to release an NDIS “implementation plan” next month.

“The contraction of the traditional DIB (both commercial and organic) was a generation-long process and it will require another generation to modernize,” according to the forward of the NDIS, penned by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen H. Hicks.

The DIB can’t do what it needs to do without an all-of-government approach; something the administration said it has been working on since taking office. Officials touted numerous executive orders, studies and other steps—besides the NDIS itself—to assess and take action needed to match the military rise of China and the emergence of a geopolitical multi-polar world.

The “arsenal of democracy” that “overwhelmed the Axis powers in World War II and contributed significantly to deterring the Soviet Union during the Cold War” has shrunk in size and capacity as a natural reaction to world events, the NDIS notes.

“The ‘peace dividend’ and ‘procurement holiday’ that followed saw dramatic cuts in military force structure, weapons production, and corresponding stockpiles of munitions and materials,” the strategy states. “Most notably, the traditional Defense Industrial Base (DIB) consolidated in the wake of the Secretary of Defense meeting with the major prime contractors and their suppliers in 1993 at what became known as the ‘Last Supper.’”

In that meeting, then-Defense Secretary William Perry warned contractors they should actively look for mergers to adapt to deep cuts in defense spending, as there wouldn’t be enough work for all of them. Since then, the number of U.S. military airplane companies, for example, has dwindled from to eight to three, and many second-tier aircraft component manufacturers have also been vertically integrated with them.

The Pentagon needs to build “a more robust, modernized defense industrial ecosystem” and doing so requires “a dynamic effort across the U.S. government to create the legal and policy conditions that allow new entrants into the defense production and services community,” the NDIS states. “We must solicit entrants of all types: large and small, domestic, and foreign, and those with no previous relationship to the DOD or defense production. This will require reinvigoration and the development of new dialogues and relationships.”

The DIB must be a “competitive advantage” for the U.S and its partners and allies, the Pentagon said.

Major world crises—from the COVID pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the Israel-Hamas war—caused the Pentagon to realize major changes in the DIB were needed, according to the NDIS.

“The COVID-19 crisis demonstrated America’s near-wholesale dependency on other nations for many products and materials crucial to modern life,” the strategy noted. “Longstanding mobilization authorities, such as the Defense Production Act, were needed in the first months of the crisis to prevent expected shortages in medical equipment and other crucial items.”

Then, Russia’s 2022 invasion, “followed the next year by attacks by Hamas on Israel, uncovered a different set of industrial demands and corresponding risks.” All have required surging weapons production far beyond the “just-in-time” levels of the past 30 years, emphasizing minimum quantities at the lowest possible cost, when peer competition was developing but not yet a pacing threat.

The administration is touting the NDIS as now providing “a path that builds on recent progress while remedying remaining gaps and potential shortfalls.”

Steps taken in the last few years have addressed specific problems rather than the defense industry writ large:

  • The CHIPS and Science Act provided $53 billion for companies to bring the manufacturing of semiconductor computer chips back to the U.S.; a vulnerability as so much of the chip-making capacity in the world lies with China and nearby Taiwan.
  • A trio of executive orders directed new policies to help defense production, strengthen supply chains, and enhance cyber security at all levels of defense manufacturing.
  • Another executive order “elaborates and expands on the existing list of factors that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) considers when reviewing transactions for national security risks.” This was aimed at curbing Chinese takeovers of small companies with competitive technologies.
  • “Complementing this CFIUS reform, [Executive Order] 14105 regulates outbound investments” in “adversarial defense economies, limiting those adversaries’ ability to compete with the U.S.”

Since one executive order was issued in 2021, nearly $900 million under the Defense Production Act has been “invested in five critical sectors (kinetic capabilities, microelectronics, energy storage and batteries, strategic and critical materials, and castings and forgings),” according to the NDIS.

Other initiatives include the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment (IBAS) program, “aimed at maintaining the health of vulnerable DOD suppliers and capabilities.” Another is the Pentagon’s ManTech (Manufacturing Technology program), “a DOD investment portfolio that seeks to develop advanced manufacturing processes, techniques, and equipment to develop, produce, and sustain weapon systems.” There is also a voluntary program under which major contractors help small suppliers use additive manufacturing.

“Guided by this first-of-its-kind” NDIS, the Pentagon “will develop more resilient and innovative supply chains, invest in small- and medium-sized businesses, and strengthen and grow American innovation and manufacturing ecosystems across both the private sector and the government-owned organic industrial base (OIB),” according to the strategy.

“We need to shift from policies rooted in the 20th century that supported a narrow defense industrial base … to a modernized industrial ecosystem that includes the traditional defense contractors—the DIB primes and sub-tier defense contractors who provide equipment and services—and also includes innovative new technology developers; academia; research labs; technical centers; manufacturing centers of excellence; service providers; government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) facilities; and finance streams, especially private equity and venture capital,” the strategy states.

An unclassified version of the NDIS implementation plan is promised for February.

US Halts Recovery Effort for Osprey Crash with One Airman Not Found

US Halts Recovery Effort for Osprey Crash with One Airman Not Found

Jan. 12, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Forty-three days after a U.S. Air Force CV-22 Osprey crashed off the coast of Japan, the Pentagon has halted search and recovery operations, Air Force Special Operations Command announced Jan. 11. Of the eight Airmen killed in the crash, the remains of one, Maj. Eric Spendlove, were not recovered. 

The U.S. military, Japan Coast Guard, Japan Self-Defense Forces, local law enforcement, and civilian volunteers participated in search and rescue efforts starting Nov. 29, 2023, that eventually transitioned to search and recovery operations. In a release, AFSOC said the effort included: 

  • More than 1,000 personnel 
  • 46 aircraft 
  • 23 maritime vessels 
  • 21 unmanned aerial and underwater systems 

The search covered 60,000 square kilometers of the ocean’s surface and 39 square kilometers of the ocean floor. The bodies of seven Airmen and the bulk of the CV-22 wreckage were recovered. 

Spendlove, 36, of St. George, Utah, was a residency-trained flight surgeon and medical operations flight commander assigned to the 1st Special Operations Squadron at Kadena Air Base, Japan. 

“While it is with tremendous deep regret that we were unable to find our last teammate, Maj. Eric Spendlove, the combined joint efforts of our Japanese allies and U.S. military forces has been inspiring to see the lengths our forces will go in order to attempt to bring a teammate home,” Rear Adm. Jeromy Williams, commander of Special Operations Command Pacific, said in a statement. “Our main priority since the mishap has been locating and bringing our Heroes back to their families. After over a month of exhausting air, surface, sub-surface, and modeling and simulation assets, we have ruled out all identified possible options to recover our teammate. Our thoughts remain with the families and squadron mates of our CV-22 aircrew and we extend our sincerest gratitude to every asset who assisted in the search.” 

A CV-22 Osprey assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron flies over Yokota Air Base, Japan, June 15, 2020.
A CV-22 Osprey assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron flies over Yokota Air Base, Japan, June 15, 2020. U.S. Air Force photo by Yasuo Osakabe

The other seven Airmen killed in the crash were: 

  • Maj. Jeffrey T. Hoernemann, 32, of Andover, Minn., a CV-22 instructor pilot and officer in charge of training assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Yokota Air Base, Japan. 
  • Maj. Luke A. Unrath, 34, of Riverside, Calif., was a CV-22 pilot and flight commander assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Yokota Air Base, Japan. 
  • Capt. Terrell K. Brayman, 32, of Pittsford, N.Y., was a CV-22 pilot and flight commander assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Yokota Air Base, Japan. 
  • Tech. Sgt. Zachary E. Lavoy, 33, of Oviedo, Fla., was a medical operations flight chief assigned to the 1st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Kadena Air Base, Japan. 
  • Staff Sgt. Jacob “Jake” M. Galliher, 24, of Pittsfield, Mass., who was a Direct Support Operator and airborne linguist specializing in Mandarin with the 43rd Intelligence Squadron, Detachment 1, Operating Location—Alpha. 
  • Staff Sgt. Jake M. Turnage, 25, of Kennesaw, Ga., was a flight engineer assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Yokota Air Base, Japan. 
  • Senior Airman Brian K. Johnson, 32, of Reynoldsburg, Ohio, was a flight engineer assigned to the 21st Special Operations Squadron, 353rd Special Operations Wing, Yokota Air Base, Japan. 

The cause of the crash, the deadliest Air Force aviation mishap since 2018, has not been identified, but AFSOC has previously stated initial findings suggested there was a “material failure” with the Osprey, indicating pilot error was likely not the primary cause and there was an issue with the aircraft itself. 

The Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps have all implemented standdowns for their V-22 fleets while the crash is investigated. AFSOC announced Jan. 3 that it had recovered the “black box,” the voice and data recorder, from the aircraft—likely a key piece in the investigation. 

While an Air Force Accident Investigation Board will probe the specific causes of the Nov. 29 mishap, there will be multiple other investigations into the V-22 more broadly, which has garnered a reputation for safety incidents. In August 2023, three Marines were killed when their Osprey crashed in Australia. In 2022, two separate crashes in San Diego and Norway resulted in the deaths of nine Marines. 

Air & Space Forces Magazine has confirmed the Government Accountability Office will initiate a review of “matters relating to accidents involving Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft (V-22) during military training exercises and operations,” at the request of Reps. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) and John Garamendi (D-Calif.), the top lawmakers on the House Armed Services readiness subcommittee.

Separately, the House Oversight Committee has requested documents from the Pentagon related to the Osprey’s safety as part of its own investigation.

“The Department of Defense commits to working cooperatively with the committee to accommodate its requests,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said Jan. 4. “We’ll work diligently to provide additional information as soon as possible.”