Air Force Promotes Just Over 500 New Chief Master Sergeants

Nov. 7, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Just over 500 senior master sergeants are getting a promotion to chief master sergeant this year, the Air Force Personnel Center announced Nov. 7, as the promotion rate held relatively steady.

Out of 2,275 eligible Airmen, 503 were tapped to move up to E-9, for a selection rate of 22.1 percent.

That’s just a little down from last year, when 506 were selected with a rate of 22.5 percent—which was the highest rate in seven years.

The full list of selectees is available now on AFPC’s website.

Selectees’ average time in grade was 3.16 years, equal to the past two years and up slightly from the previous three years.

Average time in service was 20.86 years, roughly in line with the past several years.

Promotion rates for Air Force senior noncommissioned officers have held steady or climbed in recent years, while mid-grade NCOs saw plunging rates in 2022 and 2023 followed by modest recoveries in 2024. Chief master sergeant was the final enlisted rank to have its promotion stats announced.

Officials say they are trying to rebalance the enlisted force structure after determining they were promoting too many Airmen to senior NCO ranks without the necessary experience, leaving a gap in leadership. Lower promotion rates in the middle tier are meant to give NCOs more time in grade to develop.

The service is also revamping its professional military education enterprise by introducing “Foundations” courses—base-level PME classes for enlisted personnel to attend between established schools such as the Airman Leadership School, the Noncommissioned Officer Academy, and the Senior NCO Academy.

Finally, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force David A. Flosi said in September that he is exploring the idea of consolidating some of the branch’s more than 130 Air Force Specialty Codes, which could impact promotions as officials try to balance the needs of different career fields.

Chief Master Sergeant Promotion Statistics

YEAR	SELECTED	ELIGIBLE	SELECTION RATE
2024	503	2,275	22.1
2023	506	2,249	22.50
2022	514	2,526	20.34
2021	505	2,775	18.19
2020	518	2,763	18.75
2019	530	2,529	20.96
2018	479	2,241	21.37
2017	472	2,142	22.04
2016	531	2,229	23.82
2015	525	2,521	20.83
2014	479	2,525	18.97

Data compiled by Air & Space Forces Magazine

Space Force General: We Need More Guardians in Joint Roles

Nov. 6, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force needs more Guardians in joint roles, and U.S. Space Command needs more non-Guardians in its ranks to make sure the U.S. military is making full use of its space capabilities, a top general said Nov. 6.

As head of Space Forces-Space, USSF’s component within SPACECOM, Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Schiess works at the nexus where space-focused operators meet the needs of the joint force. Speaking with AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, he said the latter has not always fully utilized the former.

“A decade ago, if you had talked to another joint service general officer, they’d say, ‘Yeah, space is important, I need that satellite communications, I need that GPS,’” Schiess said. “I think we’ve turned the corner so that they’re not only saying I need those delivery things, but [also] ‘Oh my goodness, I need you to help me make sure I don’t get targeted by space. The Space Force and Space Command, I need you to make sure that I can get through what I need to do without being attacked.’”

Despite making “headway,” though, Schiess acknowledged that more progress can be made in making sure space is fully integrated into the joint fight.

One part of that is putting Space Force personnel in so-called “purple” jobs like combatant commands and the Joint Staff. The service has established components within U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, European Command, Africa Command, and Central Command. More are coming in the future, Schiess said, and their leaders can act as subject matter experts to explain space for commanders.

At an even higher level, “we need to get some Guardians on the Joint Staff,” Schiess said. “We have [Maj. Gen. James E. Smith] now; Jim Smith is the deputy director of the J7. We need to continue that. We need to have Space Force-smart people in the joint community, so that when the discussions come up about these things, there’s someone that can really talk about that.”

Schiess’ call for Guardians to get more joint experience echoes what the Air Force went through several years ago under Chief of Staff Gen. David L. Goldfein, who emphasized the need for Airmen to get more joint jobs and better articulate the advantages of airpower.

The other side of the coin is making sure other services and combatant commands have personnel with a deep understanding of how space can help them.

“We have to have joint personnel that understand space,” Schiess said.

The general cited Chief Master Sgt. Jacob C. Simmons, the senior enlisted leader of Space Command, as saying that “we have to have space-smart people in other combatant commands and have other joint people in Space Command to make sure that we have those joint connections.”

On that front, Schiess can make an impact as head of the Combined Joint Force Space Component, a position that gives him “authority over all space forces presented by the services to the combatant command.”

In that role, Schiess had to develop a joint space operations plan. In doing so, he said, he consulted with Navy, Army, and Marine Corps leaders, gaining insight into their needs and sharing what SPACECOM can do for them.

“We need to know how they use space: what SATCOM signals do they use on a regular basis? How are they getting their information? What transponders are they on? What commercial are they using? And so, I think it is a joint fight, and we have to be a part of the joint fight,” he said.

Allies and Commercial

Schiess also spoke of upping Space Forces-Space’s work with international and industry partners.

On the commercial side, that includes an expansion of the Commercial Integration Cell, an information-sharing partnership between SPACECOM and industry. Schiess announced five new companies have joined 10 existing ones in the CIC, and two more are coming around the start of 2025.

“We have the connections so that we can provide them with threat information back and forth of ‘Hey, at the top secret level, here’s what’s going on,’” Schiess said. “They can also provide us information.”

On the allied side, SPACECOM is expanding its partnerships through Operation Olympic Defender, a yearslong multinational effort to operate together in space. Within the past two months, New Zealand, France, and Germany all joined Olympic Defender.

“We have connections with the Canadian [Space Operations Center], the UK SpOC, and the Australia SpOC,” Schiess said. “We’re working our connections with France and Germany now. And then we’ve actually added we’re working our connections with NATO, because they have a space center as well.”

F-35s Deploy to Kadena, with No Set Timeline for F-15EX Arrival

Nov. 6, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

F-35 fighters from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, have deployed to Kadena Air Base, Japan, giving the strategically located base more fifth-generation airpower.

A spokesperson for Kadena’s 18th Wing confirmed the deployment to Air & Space Forces Magazine on Nov. 5 but declined to say how many F-35s are at the base or when they arrived, citing operational security concerns. Local media reported that the fighters arrived Nov. 1.

The Hill F-35s join F-16s from Shaw Air Force Base, S.C., and F-22s from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, that arrived in October, in addition to an undisclosed number of F-15s still at the base.

The Air Force announced plans in 2022 to rotate out the F-15C/D models that have been stationed at Kadena for years. The Pentagon has set a plan to replace them with new F-15EX fighters, but the 18th Wing spokesperson noted that “the governments of the U.S. and Japan have not yet agreed on a timeline for when the F-15EX is expected to arrive.”

In the interim, the service has kept up a steady rotation of fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, including F-15C/Ds, F-15Es, F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s. Those rotations have typically lasted around six months.

Hill F-35s deployed to Kadena last November and returned home in April. Kadena also hosted F-35s from Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, last spring and summer.

The new jets arrive in the Indo-Pacific at a moment of uncertainty in the region. On Oct. 31, North Korea test launched an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in months, prompting the U.S. to fly a B-1 bomber with American, Japanese, and South Korean fighters in response. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Nov. 5 may deepen the competition between the U.S. and China.

Kadena is the closest USAF airbase to Taiwan, a potential flashpoint in the U.S.-China competition. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has told his military to be prepared to seize Taiwan by force if necessary by 2027.

While it is unclear when new F-15EXs may arrive at Kadena, the Air Force has ramped up the program in recent months, delivering the first operational jets to Portland Air National Guard Base, Ore., in June, and declaring initial operational capability shortly thereafter. Other Guard units in California and Florida have also been tapped to receive the Eagle II, though the service has offered no timeline for when they will arrive.

U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Gunnar Luna, 34th Fighter Generation Squadron crew chief, refuels an F-35A Lightning IIs at Kadena Air Base, Japan, Nov. 4, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Amy Kelley

Behind the Scenes of a Minuteman ICBM Launch with Three Test Warheads

Nov. 6, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, Calif.—The U.S. launched a Minuteman III missile here at 11:01 p.m. Pacific Time on Nov. 5., in an important test of the weapon’s ability to strike its targets with multiple warheads.

The Minuteman III missiles that form a critical leg of the U.S. nuclear triad each carry one nuclear-armed reentry vehicle. But the missile that was tested carried three test warheads.

The ICBM test was controlled by an airborne command post in a test of the U.S. ability to launch its nuclear deterrent from a survivable platform.

“These tests are demonstrative of what Striker Airmen bring to the fight if called by the president,” Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere, the commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, said in a release. “An airborne launch validates the survivability of our ICBMs, which serve as the strategic backstop of our nation’s defense and defense of allies and partners.”

After the launch command was transmitted by a U.S. Navy E-6B Mercury, the Minuteman III blasted out of a silo at the launch facility on the north side of this base on the California coast. Airmen from the 625th Strategic Operations Squadron of Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., were aboard the E-6 along with Navy aircrew.

The three test reentry vehicles—one high-fidelity Joint Test Assembly, which carries non-nuclear explosives, and two telemetry Joint Test Assembly objects—struck the Reagan Test Site near the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands roughly 30 minutes later after launch, a flight of about 4,200 miles.

“They make up essentially a mock warhead,” Col. Dustin Harmon, the commander of the 377th Test and Evaluation Group, the nation’s operational ICBM test unit, said in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine. “There’s two different types. One is telemetered, so it’s got a radio transmitter in it, it’s got antennas, gyroscopes, accelerometers—all the things that can sense motion and movement. And we fly those or we can put one in there that’s called a high-fidelity. That is assembled much like an actual weapon would be, except we use surrogate materials, and so we want it to fly similarly to an actual weapon. … It has the explosives in it that a normal warhead would to drive a detonation, but there’s nothing to drive.”

The Nov. 5 launch was a noteworthy test in several respects.

“This one is actually a unique launch,” Harmon said. “We’re flying three warheads, which, up north, the fielded missiles only have one. But we want to verify the ability of the weapon system to fly three because it’s a requirement for the missile to be able to do that … and we’re launching it from the airborne platform.”

The missiles themselves that are flight tested are randomly selected from one of the nation’s three ICBM bases—Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont.; F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyo.; and Minot Air Force Base, N.D. The ICBM launched in this test was brought from Minot Air Force Base.

“We report to U.S. Strategic Command and ultimately to the White House on the reliability of the fleet,” Harmon said. “Launching the missiles from here is data collection.”

Harmon’s test group will analyze the data from the flight and submit a report in about a year. The team at Vandenberg sifts through around 4,000 parameters and several gigabytes of data. Lt. Gen. Michael J. Lutton, the deputy commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, said the report will be a comprehensive account of all the missile’s systems.

“You’ll see assessments of all the different stages of the missile, the subsystems of the missiles, so you’re collecting data on all those items, and then you’re collecting data on the payload, the reentry vehicles,” Lutton said. “There’s mission partnership with the folks downrange and our national labs that are helping us with those assessments.”

There are 400 Minuteman III missiles currently in service across Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wyoming.

“We use an operational missile from up north because we wanted to test the reliability and the accuracy of the weapon system,” Harmon said.

Minuteman III test launches are regularly scheduled events that occur roughly three times per year. They are planned well in advance—the missile for the next test launch scheduled for February recently arrived here—though the Pentagon has delayed tests in the past to manage tensions with Russia over Ukraine and with China over Taiwan.

The U.S. government formally notified Russia in advance of the launch in accordance with a 1988 bilateral agreement. More than 145 countries were also provided with advance notice of the launch under the Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC)—an international understanding on launch notifications.

The U.S. also provided advance notice to China, a DOD spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine. China notified the U.S. of an ICBM launch over the Pacific Ocean in September. There is no formal agreement between Washington and Beijing that requires such notifications, but each side provided them to avoid miscalculations.

“The United States provided this ad-hoc advance notification in the spirit of reciprocity in order to encourage the PRC to subscribe to the HCOC and negotiate a U.S.-PRC bilateral pre-launch notification arrangement,” the spokesperson said, referring to the People’s Republic of China by an acronym.

The Minuteman III launch, which was monitored with specialized sensors, is known as a Glory Trip and the Nov. 5 flight was GT-251. The last time the U.S. launched an ICBM with three reentry vehicles was in 2023. The U.S. also conducted an airborne launch that year.

The Minuteman III missile was the first U.S. ICBM deployed with multiple warheads. But two of the three warheads on the deployed Minuteman III missiles were later removed, turning them into single warhead missiles. That step was completed in June 2014 as the U.S. moved to meet arms control limits agreed with Russia and implement the Pentagon’s 2010 Nuclear Posture Review.

Concern that the U.S.’s strategic modernization program could suffer additional delays prompted a Congressionally-mandated commission last year to recommend that the Pentagon be prepared to upload additional warheads to its existing arsenal of Minuteman missiles to maintain existing force levels.

Operational since 1970, the aging LGM-30 Minuteman III is set to be replaced by the LGM-35A Sentinel, which has faced major budget overruns.

“For example, if Sentinel experiences a delay while a fraction of the Minuteman III force ages out, warheads from the agedout Minuteman III could be uploaded onto the remaining Minuteman III to keep the number of fielded, land-based warheads constant,” stated the 12-member panel, which was made up of former officials and experts chosen by Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders.

Nuclear force buildups by Russia and China could also lead the U.S. to consider uploading its deployed land and sea-based missiles. The U.S. currently has 400 operational Minuteman III missiles under the New Start Treaty with Russia, which expires in February 2026. The Minuteman III is designed to last into the 2030s.

“We’ve deferred modernization for, depending on when you count, almost three decades,” Lutton said. “I think we have a responsibility to the taxpayers to make sure that the resources that we are given deliver national security for the nation. That’s where we’re at. … Making sure every requirement is nailed down, and every requirement fits the needs of the mission going forward to deter any potential adversaries that are out there and defend the nation.”

New Space Force ‘Mission Deltas’ Handle Missile Warning, Domain Awareness

Nov. 5, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force has officially expanded its concept for combining operations, sustainment, cyber, and intelligence functions all under one roof, dropping the “provisional” tag from units that kicked off the idea last year and transitioning two more Deltas and missions to the structure.

Originally the service called the new units Integrated Mission Deltas, but as part of the transition it has shortened that to Mission Deltas.

In ceremonies at Colorado Springs, Colo., on Oct. 30 and 31, Space Delta 2 and Space Delta 4—responsible for space domain awareness and missile warning and tracking, respectively—became Mission Delta 2 and Mission Delta 4.

A few weeks earlier, the Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) Provisional Delta that stood up in October 2023 became Mission Delta 31. Meanwhile Space Delta 3, responsible for electromagnetic warfare, became Mission Delta 3 after a year spent “prototyping” the new arrangement.

Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman first unveiled the idea for integrated mission deltas in September 2023, saying it would deliver maintenance and software upgrades to important systems much faster than before by integrating program managers and engineers with operators under Space Operations Command.

At the same time, officials insisted the arrangement would not touch acquisition, whose authorities reside under Space Systems Command.

Leaders have also noted the arrangement better aligns cyber and intelligence units and personnel according to the mission area they support, giving them better insight into their needs and capabilities.

In a statement, Col. Marc Brock, Space Operations Command lead for integrated Mission Delta modernization, said “this unity of command for readiness allows a single organization to generate, maintain, and enhance ready forces for an assigned mission area.”

EW and PNT were chosen as the first two mission areas to test the arrangement, and by February 2024, the new units were already getting rave reviews and leaders were talking about expanding the arrangement to other missions.

In April, Space Systems Command boss Lt. Gen. Philip A. Garrant confirmed that space domain awareness and missile tracking were in line to become the next two Mission Deltas.

In July, Space Operations Command head Lt. Gen. David N. Miller Jr. said not all his command’s deltas would become Mission Deltas, but those that needed to would transition within the next 12 months. Space Delta 6 and Space Delta 7 handle cyber and intelligence, respectively, and are unlikely to transition.

That leaves just two of SpOC’s eight deltas left: Space Delta 8, which is responsible for satellite communications, and Space Delta 9, which handles orbital warfare.

Kirtland Installs New Sensors to Stop Wildfires Before They Spread

Nov. 5, 2024 | By David Roza

As wildfires threaten Air Force bases across the country, Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M., is trying out a new system of sensors to detect wildfires and alert first responders before they grow too big to control. Air Force spokesperson Laurel Falls told Air & Space Forces Magazine that Kirtland is the only Air Force installation currently using the technology.

Other wildfire detection systems rely on cameras, satellites, and drones, the base explained in an Oct. 23 press release. But the N5 wildfire sensor “sniffs” the air for a range of fire signs such as particulate matter, temperature changes, and gases including carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides, according to the Department of Homeland Security, which worked with the Canadian government to deploy about 200 sensors across the U.S. and Canada this year.

Powered by batteries charged by solar panels, the N5 sensors sends their measurements to a data cloud every 18 seconds via a mix of cellular and radio communication. Artificial intelligence and machine learning uses that data to create a baseline for local conditions, then alerts first responders when it detects levels indicating a possible wildfire. The new sensors are about 1,000 times more sensitive than a home smoke alarm, DHS wrote, which means the AI helps avoid false alarms.

“The addition of rapid, geographically targeted alerts, warnings, and notifications could prove the difference between a localized fire response and a large-scale tragedy,” DHS explained.

wildfire sensor — A N5 Wildfire Sensor is mounted onto a pole on Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M., Oct. 23. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Ruben Garibay)

During testing in northern California in 2021, sensors produced by N5 and other companies detected prescribed burns up to five miles away. A previous wave of sensors deployed in the U.S. and Canada in 2023 detected “a flare-up from accumulated brush pile, an unauthorized bonfire near a utility pole in Colorado, and lightning tree strikes in California and Canada,” according to DHS.

At Kirtland, the 377th Air Base Wing installed 14 sensors covering more than 1,000 acres. That’s a small slice of the base’s 52,000 acres, but any early detection can help in central New Mexico, which in 2022 was scorched by the Calf Canyon/Hermit’s Peak Fire, the largest and most destructive wildfire in the state’s history and the largest wildfire of the year in the contiguous U.S.

“We are at high risk for wildland fire, with our sagebrush being so close together, the fire can travel faster,” Mark Bean, 377th Air Base Wing Plans and Programs range operations officer, said in the Kirtland press release. “It’s important we have devices like these to give our responders that extra time to come and put out those fires before they become uncontrollable.”

Col. Michael Power, 377th Air Base Wing and Installation Commander at Kirtland AFB, speaks at the dedication opening of USDA Forest Service Cibola National Forest & National Grasslands Air Tanker Base on Kirtland Air Force Base N.M. (U.S. Air force photo by Allen Winston)

The new sensors come about six months after a newly upgraded air tanker base for wildfire fighting became operational at Kirtland. The Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands Air Tanker Base allows larger tankers carrying fire retardant to land and fill up at Kirtland, which helps boost firefighting capability across much of the western U.S.

“The combination of cutting-edge detection and a strategically placed ATB on Kirtland dramatically improves the speed and accuracy of wildfire responses, reducing the potential for devastating wildfires to spread,” Kirtland wrote in its Oct. 23 press release.

Kirtland is not the only Air Force base dealing with wildfires: a 2016 conflagration delayed a satellite launch and threatened launch pads at what is now Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. Just in 2024, bases from California to New Jersey battled nearby blazes, which can threaten the local infrastructure that bases depend on.

“Even if wildfires do not directly affect areas on a base, they can affect critical infrastructure—such as electric power—on which [Air Force] missions rely,” the RAND Corporation wrote in a 2021 report.

The Air Force Wildland Fire Branch was formed in 2012 in response to rising wildfire threats to Air Force missions. The team installs fire breaks, manages grasses, timber, and other fire fuels, and performs prescribed burns, service spokesperson Laurel Falls explained.

At Kirtland, the base’s fire chief, Jaime Jimenez, said the new sensors can help Airmen and their neighbors in Albuquerque.

“Early detection means our firefighters and other supporting mission partners can come out here quicker to extinguish the fire,” he said.

B-52s Deploying to Europe on Top of Bombers Already in Middle East

Nov. 5, 2024 | By Chris Gordon and Greg Hadley

U.S. Air Force B-52s are headed to Europe for a Bomber Task Force rotation, Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed Nov. 5.

The deployment is separate from the six B-52s that deployed to the Middle East this weekend to deter Iran and its proxies.

U.S. Air Forces in Europe announced the bomber task force on Nov. 1 but offered no details on the type and number of aircraft or where they would go, only noting that the bombers “will train and operate alongside NATO Allies and partners for several weeks demonstrating the U.S. commitment to global security and stability.”

A U.S. defense official confirmed to Air & Space Forces Magazine that the task force—the first of fiscal 2025—will consist of B-52s.

On Nov. 5, the Finnish Air Force posted images on social media of a B-52 from Barksdale Air Force Base, La., flying a training mission alongside its fighters.

“The bomber entered Finnish airspace from the north and exited via the Gulf of Bothnia,” the Finnish Air Force stated. The Gulf of Bothnia separates Finland from Sweden.

Public flight tracking data also shows B-52s taking off from Barksdale and flying to RAF Fairford, United Kingdom, where the Air Force has based bomber task forces in the past.

The bombers’ arrival just a few days after B-52s landed in the Middle East gives the U.S. a heavy airpower presence near two major regional conflicts: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran.

This marks the third consecutive bomber task force in Europe to feature B-52s. In May, Stratofortresses from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., deployed to Fairford and stayed there until June, and in July two Barksdale B-52s deployed to Romania for a week.

More recently, Minot B-52s flew to Poland and back over two days in September for a NATO training mission, an exercise that officials dubbed an “extension” of the Romania task force.

Kendall: USAF Can’t Afford Next-Gen Fighter, Tanker, and Wingman Drones All at Once

Nov. 5, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter; the Next-Generation Aerial refueling System tanker; a second increment of Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones: Air Force leaders have said in recent years they need them all to be prepared for a future fight with a great power like China.

But speaking at the Airlift/Tanker Association symposium on Nov. 1, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall admitted the Air Force will have to get “creative” with its future force structure because it cannot afford them all.

“Right now, given our commitments, our resources, and strategic priorities, it’s hard for me to see how we can afford any combination of those new designs,” Kendall said in Grapevine, Texas.

That could prove especially difficult given how the three programs play off one another.

“These three potential new-design platforms are all tied together, all in an Agile Combat Employment context,” Kendall said of NGAD, NGAS, and CCA. They are connected “both operationally and from an affordability perspective, and we are working through a sprint of about four months” to assess “the best combination of capabilities to pursue at various investment levels.”

Having enough resources to build the Air Force that’s needed is “what I worry about most,” Kendall added, noting that “we have to get somewhat creative to adapt our existing force to meet the threat.”

Kendall put a “pause” on the manned NGAD fighter earlier this year, and both he and Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin have said they are unsure if the requirements of the program as set years ago fit with the evolving threat and new unmanned technologies like CCA.

To review those requirements, the service assembled a blue-ribbon panel, including three former Air Force Chiefs of Staff, one former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and two leading civilian experts. They are reviewing the evidence now and will recommend a way forward in December.

Kendall said in September he wants the NGAD fighter to cost less than an F-35, which costs about $82 million for the Air Force variant. Having previously pegged the cost of NGAD at “multiple hundreds of millions” of dollars, however, he’s looking for a radical cut in price and capability. A planned contract award for a winner originally scheduled for fall 2024 has been postponed to 2025 at the earliest.

Over the past few decades, the Air Force has had to resort to “a lot of tricks to squeeze more capability out of the same set of resources,” Kendall said. The service has become extremely efficient “by tailoring how we do business to current demands, but it has come at the expense of our ability to deal with our pacing challenge” of China, he said, and the modernization bill has come due.

“There comes a point where you simply need more resources to accomplish more mission. This is particularly true now,” he said. He reiterated recent comments noting that Chinese president Xi Jinping has “told his military: be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027; just over two years from now, even if the U.S. intervenes. I believe that the [People’s Liberation Army] will tell Xi that they are ready.”

Not only are the Air Force’s three marquee programs not all affordable within expected budgets, but the Air Force has other must-pay bills, such as for modernization of two of the three legs of the nation’s nuclear deterrent, Kendall said. Those include the B-21 strategic bomber and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, the latter of which has seen a $40 billion cost overrun in the last year.

Stealthy Tanker

Kendall said China has in recent years invested heavily in precision missiles that can disable air bases and shoot down key assets, such as surveillance, tanker and mobility aircraft, which could hobble U.S. forces operating in the Indo-Pacific theater.

“The increasing threat to our mobility platforms” demands a stealthy tanker—NGAS—that can go with the combat air forces into contested territory and provide the range and staying power they need to prevail, he said.

The need for modernization of mobility forces “will only grow in the years to come. We have made a good start over the last three years, but early-stage development is the lowest-cost part of the new product life cycle,” Kendall said.

In addition to NGAS, officials have spoken on a Next-Generation Air Lift platform, or NGAL, as a replacement for the C-5, C-17 and C-130. Kendall confirmed “we have conceived of a next-generation transport, but at least at this point…we have not moved forward to start that program,” suggesting it would not be affordable within the already-overfull portfolio.

Kendall also said the Space Force needs more money to “grow at the pace needed to be competitive. The entire joint force depends on the success of the Space Force for both its capabilities and its survival.”

Overall, “modernization bills for both Air Force legs of the nuclear triad are coming due in the next few years. We must have robust airbase defense, and we must attack our potential adversaries’ long-range kill chains,” Kendall said. “All of these are absolutely essential for the success of the Air Force and Space Force and the joint force, and all that requires substantial increased investments.”

Kendall: ‘I Would Be Comfortable’ If USAF Took Over Air Base Defense from Army

Nov. 4, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Pentagon should give the Air Force the air base defense mission and the resources to carry it out, Secretary Frank Kendall said Nov. 1 at the Airlift/Tanker Association Symposium in Grapevine, Texas.

“There is one thing we must move faster on: our progress against the full range of threats to our bases. This is a joint responsibility that we have been working on with our Army colleagues, and that we hope to accelerate,” Kendall said during a keynote address. “Frankly, I would be comfortable with the Department of the Air Force taking on the … defense of air bases as an organic mission, if the needed resources—human and financial, etc.—were made available.”

Under the 1948 Key West agreements that set the core roles and missions of the services, the Army is supposed to defend air bases. It’s a mission that’s gotten tougher in recent years as China has built a formidable number and variety of long-range precision-guided missiles likely intended to rain destruction on U.S. bases in the Indo-Pacific, Kendall said.

This threat has prompted the Air Force to pursue the concept of Agile Combat Employment, in which the service plans to deploy small teams of Airmen capable of moving quickly to remote or austere bases, to multiply the number of targets China must shoot at and reduce the chances of a knockout blow at any one base.

But the Army has not committed the resources necessary to match the ACE model. Its Patriot and Theater High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) systems are effective, but batteries are relatively few in number and there aren’t enough missiles to go around for the number of bases ACE will require. The Air Force has complained with increasing urgency that the Army is not taking the mission seriously enough, even as the Army encroaches on the Air Force’s core mission of long-range strike by developing costly hypersonic missiles with limited potential effects. The Air Force believes its forward forces are ill-protected.

The challenge of countering a large-scale missile strike has been drawn into sharp relief by Iran’s recent missile volleys toward Israel, which were thwarted by an international defensive effort from land, sea, and air. Such a level of effort would likely not be sustainable in a large Indo-Pacific theater war.

The Air Force and Army both have experimented with lasers and directed energy weapons for air base defense, the idea being that many, low-cost defensive shots can impose the greatest cost of such combat on the attacker instead of the defender.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin, in a virtual event with the American Enterprise Institute on Oct. 31, said the Air Force used to have permissive access to forward locations, but “that is no longer the case.”

“The challenge is doubled or tripled by not only having to go the tyranny of distance, but being able to survive and protect the equipment along the way, into in the beginning of the fight and during the fight,” he said.

“We are looking at things … [that] increase the survivability of the bases from which we operate. And then in the midst of a conflict, how we get the right equipment to the right place at the right time is not only a matter of protecting it with hardened shelters and maybe camouflage, concealment and deception, but it’s also connectivity, to have that situational awareness,” and be able to react quickly when China points “its next salvo of long-range missiles to attack.”