New Report: Backlogged F-35s Could Take a Year to Deliver

May 19, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Even if deliveries of F-35 fighters, now on hold, were to resume immediately, it could take a year to get them all into the hands of operators, according to a new Government Accountability Office report.

Lockheed Martin has produced but not delivered about 80 F-35s since last fall because they were built to use the Tech Refresh 3 computer and display upgrade that is still being tested. Until testing is complete, the government isn’t accepting deliveries, and the aircraft are being parked. The government won’t release the actual number in storage or their location, citing operational security.

According to the GAO, Lockheed expects that when deliveries resume, they can be accomplished at the rate of 20 per month, or roughly one every business day. But the best rate of deliveries ever achieved was 13 per month, the GAO noted in its May 16 report.

“Even at this faster rate, delivering the parked aircraft will take about a year once TR-3 software has been completed and certified,” the report states.

If the delivery rate of 20 is achieved, it would take four months to deliver the backlog of fighters, but that doesn’t take into account new fighters that continue to be produced and would also need to go through the “DD250” process; so-called for the document that certifies the jet meets its checks and can be handed over to the user. That would continually add to the delivery backlog.

Lockheed says it’s on a pace to build—though not necessarily deliver—about 156 F-35s per year, meaning roughly 13 per month are being built. Unless the delivery rate increases, the backlog would never be worked off.

The GAO reported that the Defense Contract Management Agency, which has a presence at the F-35 factory in Fort Worth, Texas, said “they believe the rate [of 20 per month] is feasible,” although it would stress the workforce and enterprise needed to do the certifications and “lead to coordination challenges” with the government.

The extra seven aircraft a month delivered under the accelerated rate would mean the backlog would take more than 11 months to complete.

But deliveries are not expected to resume immediately. The F-35 steering group—the committee of U.S. services, foreign partners, and foreign users of the jet—have agreed in principle to accept a “truncated” version of the TR-3 software, which would allow deliveries to resume, but they would later need hardware and software modification when the full TR-3 package is tested and certified.

A spokesperson for the F-35 Joint Program Office said clearance to release the truncated version will only be granted when the software associated with it “is stable,” meaning that it does not crash and need to be rebooted multiple times per sortie. The JPO offered no estimate of when that’s expected to happen.

“Our top developmental priority is delivering a safe, stable, capable, and maintainable TR-3 product,” JPO spokesperson said. “The next iteration of TR-3 software is planned for release to flight test later this month. Our team remains focused on incorporating fixes that put us in a position to deliver TR-3 configured aircraft acceptable for combat training,” although this version is not the all-up TR-3 package. “The first opportunity to potentially start accepting aircraft remains late July.” The program has previously acknowledged that all-up TR-3-equipped aircraft won’t become available until mid-2025.

The TR-3’s far more powerful computers and processors are the basis for the F-35’s Block 4 upgrade. Lt. Gen. Michael J. Schmidt, the program executive officer for the F-35 program, recently told Congress the Block 4 is being “re-imagined,” with some of its elements being deferred from the late 2020s to the mid-2030s.

The GAO also pointed out that Lockheed is “responsible for the security and maintenance” of the parked airplanes while delivery is being worked out, and noted that if deliveries are delayed past April 2024, Lockheed is projected to “exceed its maximum parking capacity and will need to develop a plan to accommodate more parked airplanes.”

Parking the jets “presents additional risk to the government should damage occur to some or all of the parked aircraft,” the GAO report states. “It is unique for so many critical DOD aircraft to be waiting for DOD acceptance, instead of stored at lower densities across many military locations throughout the world. This creates unique financial and schedule risks to DOD.”

The threat of sabotage of the parked jets is not easily dismissed. In 2012, Taliban fighters penetrated Marine Corps Camp Bastion in Afghanistan, where they destroyed six AV-8B Harrier II fighters and severely damaged two others, using light arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and suicide vests. The jets were valued at more than $30 million each.

Lockheed leased 136,000 square feet of industrial space at a facility roughly seven miles north of its Fort Worth, Texas, F-35 factory in January, but the company could not be immediately reached to say whether this space, which it has previously said will be used “for storage” is meant to accommodate the growing backlog F-35s.

Top NATO Commander Warns of ‘Big Russia Problem for Years to Come’

May 17, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that Russia would remain an enduring threat to NATO and global security, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“No matter how it works out after the war in Ukraine is concluded … I believe Russia will pose a long-term threat to the alliance, we will have a big Russia problem for years to come,” Cavoli said at an Atlantic Council event on May 17.

While Russia has deployed refurbished, older model weapons that are “not as high quality” during the conflict, Cavoli noted the Kremlin’s rapid reconstitution of military might in quantity as cause for concern. Pentagon estimates suggest Russia has suffered about 315,000 casualties since the beginning of the war, and 20 of its medium-to-large Navy vessels have been sunk, destroyed, or damaged since 2022. Nevertheless, Cavoli noted that the Russian army in Ukraine is now larger than it was at the beginning of the conflict, and it will continue to swiftly replenish its losses post-war.

“Russia will be on track to expand the size of its military, it has already announced its plans to do so,” said Cavoli. “It has ramped up industrial production and manpower intake in order to achieve these goals. It will be arrayed in the western parts of Russia and associated nations, perhaps on the borders with NATO, and it will be a large force.”

Amid these rising stakes, NATO has launched one of its most extensive military exercise series since the Cold War earlier this year. Dubbed Steadfast Defender, it will last six months and feature in part aircraft such as F-35s, F-15s, and UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) across 13 different countries, including Sweden, the alliance’s newest member since March. Cavoli particularly highlighted NATO members’ air forces as a ‘great and growing success story,’ noting their current state of being well-trained and well-equipped, with plans for further fleet enhancement.

“I’m very confident about our ability to wage high-end warfare,” said Cavoli. “We are rapidly moving into fourth-generation-plus and fifth-generation, exclusively across the alliance. By 2030, there are going to be more than 600 F-35s in the alliance in Europe.”

f-35 europe — The 388th Fighter Wing’s F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation fighter cruises in Eastern European airspace, Feb. 28, 2022, in support of NATO’s collective defense. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Edgar Grimaldo.

Following Washington’s approval, several NATO members are expanding their stealthy F-35 fleets, with Belgium, Finland, and Poland anticipating receiving their first F-35s in 2024. Pentagon initially sought to include 68 F-35s in the fiscal 2025 budget, with a draft National Defense Authorization Act aiming to reduce the number to 58.

Cavoli noted that each additional aircraft integrated into a fifth-generation network is worth more than just one airframe, as it strengthens overall capabilities through expanded sensor coverage. He added that the platform’s capacity to incorporate other high-end fighters like Sweden’s Gripen and France’s Rafale will only create more opportunities in the future.

“They have a very strong, very realistic training program that focuses on all the high-end threats that we have today,” Cavoli said of the NATO Allied Air Command, led by USAF Gen. James B. Hecker. “Of course, focusing on the exquisite end of aerial combat means you’re probably not able to focus as much on things such as close air support, and that’s something we’re wrestling with inside the alliance. The good news is that the alliance does retain a huge number of fourth generation aircraft, so we still have the capabilities to do it.”

The U.S. and NATO allies are intensifying their preparations for complex scenarios by expanding exercises that integrate fourth and fifth-generation jets across Europe. Just recently, exercises have focused on Integrated Air and Missile Defense, simulated combat, electronic warfare, and coordination with ground forces.

According to Cavoli, NATO’s defense forces overall are not yet fully developed, and it’s imperative to expedite the process. With Russia and NATO engaged in a competitive buildup and modernization of their militaries, the realization of the allies’ force structure will determine whether Russia gains ground or NATO retains its advantage.

“Our commitment to that force structure requirement, and the speed with which we can get up to it, is really going to decide whether Russia has the advantage, or we have the advantage,” said Cavoli. “So, it’s less about the absolute question of ‘how fast Russia can reconstitute,’ and more about the relative question of ‘will we reconstitute faster?’”

‘Bend Minds, Not Metal’: Where Airmen Learn How to Change the Air Force

May 17, 2024 | By David Roza

The Air Force has no shortage of complex problems. And from countering small drones to deterring China on a tight budget, solving these problems can require more than just good ideas: it also means getting those ideas out of the ‘silos’ that can form across the Air Force’s various job specialties. Project Mercury, a program sponsored by Air University, is set up for this exact reason.

Founded in 2019, Project Mercury takes 40 Airmen, Guardians, and other individuals per “cohort” and divides them into teams of five or six members. For the next 90 days, those team members must work together completing both academic work and an innovation project focused on problems in areas like personnel management, logistics, recruitment, or renewable energy—while still performing their regular full-time jobs.

“One of the things we try to teach our innovators is that nobody cares about your stupid innovation, they care about solving their problems,” Ethan Eagle, head coach of Project Mercury, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “High-potential go-getters are used to being right, but working together requires humility, it requires you letting go of what you think the solution is and collaborating with creative peers.”

Many programs such as Spark Tank, Spark Cells, Tesseract, and Kessel Run help Airmen and Guardians develop their ideas for solving problems. Part of Project Mercury’s role in that ecosystem is teaching students how to figure out what the problem is in the first place.

“When you get together with a diverse set of people not from the same discipline, you realize ‘Hey, nobody actually agrees what the problem is,’” Eagle said. “Finding that right problem is part of how we differentiate ourselves from the rest of the innovation education ecosystem. We bend minds, not metal, which is a way of saying, ‘leave your pet rock at the door. You’re going to, as a team, find something that everybody agrees with.’ Boy, is that way harder than ‘Hey, I know how to build a better widget.’”

project mercury — Staff Sgt. Preston Underwood, 50th Attack Squadron evaluator sensor operator, tests the flight capability of a model aircraft as part of a group experiment during an innovation workshop in support of Project Mercury at Shaw Air Force Base, S.C., Dec. 11, 2023. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Robert Porter)

For many students, such as Lt. Col. Julie Janson, their innovation project has nothing to do with their area of expertise.

“They actually go out of their way to keep you out of your specialty area,” said Janson, an information operations officer who worked on personnel management as a Mercury student in 2020 and has since coached several Mercury cohorts. Not knowing the subject makes finding the real problem even more difficult.

“The military is very much like ‘I want to get it done and I want to get it done now,’ so every single team I have experienced jumps right to a solution,” said Janson. “What we are teaching them is to slow down a second and first of all analyze what your actual problem is. That step is skipped so often, and it results in solutions in search of a problem.”

Project Mercury teaches students how to overcome that challenge, in part by reading “The Innovation Code: The Creative Power of Constructive Conflict,” a book by Jeff and Staney DeGraff which explains how to use the tension from different perspectives and personalities to create new ideas.

The program “breaks you out of your comfort zone in so many ways, and one of them is breaking out of your little network of people,” Janson said. “If you just stick within your community, you’re in an echo chamber and you’re not learning anything.”

Breaking down stovepipes is easier said than done in an Air Force where many Airmen spend their careers in one speciality, explained another early Project Mercury student, Col. Steve Marshall.

“People work so hard in their own lanes that they don’t necessarily have the time to go outside of that,” he said. Project Mercury “helps you build your network, and it then becomes much easier to reach across and out of your natural stovepipe.”

Sometimes effective solutions require breaking a few rules. While that’s a tough ask for Airmen trained to obey checklists, orders, and regulations, Marshall pointed out that the Air Force’s founding mythology revolves around mavericks such as Brig. Gen. Billy Mitchell.

“We were founded by this group of rule-breakers who looked for a positive change,” Marshall said. “Those people exist, but there’s no way to bring that along and nurture that in any kind of formal fashion, which is somewhat counterintuitive.”

First Lt. Edward Buster, 412th Test Wing, Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., leads a brainstorming activity during a Project Mercury Innovator Workshop at Edwards, Feb. 21-23, 2024. (U.S. Air Force photo by Laisa Leao)

Janson described Project Mercury as a pressure-cooker, where “the deadlines come fast and furious.” But the results are rewarding.

“It’s been all the emotions, from intimidating to exciting,” said Maj. Stacie Shafran, a public affairs officer and recent Project Mercury graduate whose team studied renewable energy in the Pacific.

Working with a diverse group refined her approach to figuring out complex challenges and pushing new ideas, Shafran said. Her team developed Rays to Jet Power, a system which uses roll-out fabric solar panels to generate electricity, an improvement over traditional generators which require costly supply chains of diesel fuel.

“One of my teammates is stationed in Guam, where the urgent need for sustainable alternatives was highlighted by the aftermath of Typhoon Mawar in 2023,” Shafran said. “It’s been deeply rewarding to contribute to a solution that addresses these critical challenges.”

At the end of the course, students pitch an idea to expert stakeholders. While the point of Project Mercury is not to create gadgets, the cohorts have developed a long list of impressive solutions. One group created a suite of apps allowing interagency first responders to quickly share information while responding to a crisis, which helped during Hurricane Ian in 2022 and the Hawaii wildfires in 2023, Eagle said. Another group inspired Morpheus, an innovation cell within the Air Force Chief of Staff’s Strategic Studies Group.

Besides problem-solving skills, Project Mercury also builds “a common language about innovation” among a diverse group of service members, Marshall said.

“To have those skills and that common language, that’s foundational to all the other changes,” he explained. “I think we’ll see these Airmen be open to new ideas and be able to implement them as they take on senior rank.”

Graduates receive a Professional Innovator certificate from the University of Michigan’s College of Engineering. A 90-day crash course is not enough to keep Project Mercury skills sharp forever, though, said Janson. That is part of the reason why she, Marshall, and many other participants return to the program as coaches for future cohorts. Janson found herself using the skills she developed as a student and ingrained as a coach in her current job helping NATO prepare for 2030.

“You’re just seeing some people’s brains break: like how do you even begin to address this?” she said. “I am not remotely worried by a large, ambiguous project, because I know exactly how to start addressing it.”

Like other Air University professional military education offerings, Project Mercury is open to all Airmen and Guardians along with a limited number of service members and civilians at all ranks from all branches, other government agencies, and allied or partner militaries. The openness makes Project Mercury among the most diverse “classrooms” in the Defense Department, said Jim Dryjanski, the Air University Director of Project Mercury.

Project Mercury’s reach has grown to include partners and allies, including the Republic of Singapore Air Force, the National Guard, the NATO Innovation Hub, and NATO Allied Transformation Command. In late June, NATO is hosting a Project Mercury Innovator Workshop in Warsaw, Poland, called “Innovators on the Eastern Flank,” further expanding the network.

“It’s really about making you a better leader, in some ways a better person, and taking the world around you as a place where you are empowered to make change,” Janson said. “I think we need that today, when sometimes people can really feel un-empowered, to know that if you can just apply yourself and use the right tools, you can make change around you.”

New AFSOC Commander, Academy Superintendent, Top Planner All Nominated

May 17, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Air Force Special Operations Command boss Lt. Gen. Tony D. Bauernfeind has been nominated to take over as superintendent of the U.S. Air Force Academy, and his current director of operations Brig. Gen. Michael E. Conley is set to jump two ranks and succeed him at AFSOC, part of a raft of general officer nominations the Pentagon announced May 17.

In addition to Bauernfeind and Conley, the Defense Department also announced the nominations of three other Air Force generals to receive a third-star and assume new positions:

Maj. Gen. David H. Tabor has been nominated to become deputy chief of staff for plans and programs

Maj. Gen. Thomas K. Hensley has been nominated lead to lead the 16th Air Force (Air Forces Cyber)

Maj. Gen. John J. DeGoes has been nominated to become the Air Force Surgeon General

The departure of current Air Force Academy superintendent Lt. Gen. Richard M. Clark has been long-planned. Clark, who has led USAFA in Colorado Springs, Colo., since 2020, was named the next executive director of the College Football Playoff in November 2023 and plans to start in the 2024 fall season. He announced his intention to retire to take on the high-profile civilian job.

Bauernfeind, a command pilot with experience on nearly a dozen different aircraft types, has led AFSOC since December 2022, after spending two years as the vice commander at U.S. Special Operations Command.

In recent months, Bauernfeind has had to lead the Air Force special operators community through two tragedies. In November 2023, an AFSOC CV-22 Osprey crashed off the coast of southern Japan, killing all eight Airmen on board. The entire Osprey fleet across the military was grounded for three months and is still operating with restrictions on how the aircraft is flown.

Then earlier this month, Senior Airman Roger Fortson, a 23-year-old special missions aviator on AC-130s, was shot six times and killed in the doorway of his apartment in Fort Walton Beach, Fla., by an Okaloosa County sheriff’s deputy. Fortson, who was Black, was holding a legally owned handgun by his side when he was shot after opening the door.

Bauernfeind has met leaders from Hurlburt Field, local pastors and community groups, the NAACP, and the Okaloosa County Sheriff’s Office and pledged to hold a town hall.

Though under vastly different circumstances, those incidents reverberated across the Air Force, with many Airmen across the service sharing their grief online and in memorial services, and have brought particular pain to the special operations community.

If confirmed by the Senate, Conley will continue to manage the aftermath of both incidents. Conley is a career Osprey pilot himself and previously flew the now-retired MH-53 Pave Low helicopter, and commanded at the squadron and wing and in deployed special operations positions.

U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Mike Conley, outgoing commander of the 1st Special Operations Wing, addresses Air Commandos during a promotion ceremony at Hurlburt Field, Florida, June 8, 2020. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Blake Wiles

Conley would also join a relatively small group of general officers who skipped the major general rank—current deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services Lt. Gen. Caroline M. Miller did so in 2022, Lt. Gen. Christopher F. Burne did so in 2014, and Lt. Gen. Richard C. Harding did it in 2010. Lt. Gen. Dale R. White, the current military deputy to Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter, skipped a rank as well, though his situation was impacted by a monthslong hold on all general officer nominations in the Senate.

Tabor was nominated for deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, to succeed Lt. Gen. Richard G. Moore Jr., who is retiring. The job of the so-called A8 is a key position on the Air Staff at the Pentagon, serving as the Air Force’s senior force planner.

A two-star general since 2019, Tabor has been on Moore’s team since June 2022, serving as director of programs in the office. Moore also served in that role before becoming A8. Prior to his service at the Pentagon, Tabor was a career special operator with numerous joint special operations assignments and combat assignments.

U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. David Tabor, then-Special Operations Command Europe Commanding General, speaks with Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Hryhoriy Halahan, Commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, prior to a low-level flight over Kyiv, Ukraine, Aug. 25, 2021. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Izabella Workman

Hensley is currently the deputy commander of the 16th Air Force, having served in that position for just under a year after a two-year stint at the National Security Agency. He has spent most of his career in intelligence roles. Now, he may be set to manage a big shift in the Air Force’s cyber warfare.

Air Forces Cyber will become a direct reporting unit to the Air Force Secretary under the Air Force’s “re-optimization” plans, rather than a Numbered Air Force under Air Combat Command. The final plans for that change, however, have yet to be unveiled.

Finally, the nominee to become the new surgeon general, DeGoes, currently serves as the USAF’s deputy surgeon general, overseeing the office’s daily functions. If confirmed, DeGoes would become the chief medical advisor to Air Force and Space Force and lead the Air Force Medical Service.

The nominations for Bauernfeind, Conley, Tabor, Hensley, and DeGoes were sent to the Senate on May 14.

It’s Time to Re-Adopt Peace Through Strength

May 17, 2024 | By Douglas A. Birkey

At the dawn of the Cold War, a simple phrase defined America’s national security strategy: “Peace through strength.” Today, 75 years later, the world faces similarly severe challenges, but this time the United States is struggling to adopt and actualize a similarly decisive policy.

Witness the travails necessary to pass military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The majority in Congress supported those measures, which were held hostage for months by small minorities from both ends of the political spectrum. America’s adversaries understand this power vacuum and take advantage daily. There comes a point where U.S. leaders must stop asking “what happens if we lead?” and instead ask “what happens if we don’t?”

After two decades of failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Americans are understandably reluctant to engage in new conflicts around the world. They saw friends and neighbors deployed, endured thousands killed and wounded, and watched as national leaders struggled to define a viable strategy and a positive end state. The U.S. failed dramatically in both conflicts, with ISIS emerging after we left Iraq and the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan serving as lasting evidence of that failure.

What is different now is the scale, scope and existential nature of the threats facing America today. Iraq and Afghanistan were regional contingencies, not major international conflicts. They did not tie to existential interests—the literal security of our nation, economic interests, core values, and the ability to engage in a free and peaceful world.

By contrast, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s continued aggression in the Pacific, Iran’s quest to dominate the Middle East, and North Korea’s obsession with expanding its offensive nuclear strike capabilities, each make the world unbelievably more dangerous day by day. America’s indecision regarding our role in global security only exacerbates these threats. Aggressors love a vacuum.

A better vector would see U.S. leaders revise the nation’s approach to Ukraine. Thus far, U.S. and allied policy has sought to provide sufficient aid to Ukraine to prevent it from losing ground day-to-day. But this focus on not losing, is a far cry from enabling Ukraine to win. By restricting Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons to attack targets beyond its own borders, the U.S. has given Russia sanctuary in its territory and blocked Ukraine from making its invader feel pain at home. The result is World War I-style attrition warfare, and an inability to change the calculus of the war. Ukraine is restricted from attacking Russian command and control, logistics, materiel targets, and rear bases, and has ceded to Russia the upper hand it wields due to its greater size and numerical strength.

Advocates of this policy say it helps avoid dragging the U.S. and NATO into a broader fight with Russia, and reduces the risk that Vladimir Putin might unleash a nuclear attack. But they ignore the fact that deterrence is a multi-player game. Putin cannot be given free reign every time he rattles his nuclear saber. If he is, not only will he rattle it more, but Ukraine will surely lose.

The U.S. and its allies need to deter—not be deterred.

Similar patterns have occurred in the Pacific. Note how the U.S. failed to take a stand in the 2000s and 2010s as China seized territory and built military outposts on international reefs over the past 20 years. Now, those installations are fortified, and the situation is far more dangerous. Consider the violent standoff between Chinese and Philippine forces over a location in the Second Thomas Shoal. Such flashpoints risk erupting into open conflict—an outcome that poses outsized risks for the U.S. and much of the free world.

Meeting the aggression of adversaries with U.S. and allied appeasement is a recipe for a disaster. It is cliché to say so, but this is exactly how conditions were set for World War II.

The problem for the U.S. and most of its allies is that we are collectively underprepared for confronting these realities. We took a deliberate “defense holiday” following the Cold War—slashing military force structure and opting not to invest in military modernization. When the fights in Afghanistan and Iraq came a long, they distracted us from larger threats—and siphoned away valuable resources, time, and focus. Consider that at the end of the Cold War, the U.S. fielded roughly 400 bomber aircraft. Today, the Air Force has only about 141, and on any given day, only about 59 are capable of flying a military mission. Only 19 are stealthy B-2s—the type most needed to confront a competent adversary.

We face similar deficits in fighter, tanker, and airlift, and intelligence-gathering capacity. Our homeland is inadequately defended. Our new Space Force is also badly under resourced.

A B-2 Spirit stealth bomber assigned to the 509th Bomb Wing taxis to the runway at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., April 15, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Hailey Farrell

Many U.S. leaders seem neither to understand nor care. The 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act limited the defense budget to 1 percent growth—a de facto cut given high inflation. Our entire nuclear triad has exceeded its anticipated lifespan and must be replaced. Without massive investment, these capabilities and their power to deter adversaries from risking war with the U.S. will wither away.

That is what is happening to the U.S. Air Force’s fighter inventory. F-15s and F-16s procured in the 1970s and 1980s are aging out of service. Though the Air Force has stated for years that it needs to buy at least 72 new fighter jets per year to modernize, we continue to acquire fewer jets each year, leaving gaps around the globe. That is why F-15s were withdrawn from Kadena Air Base in Japan last year—in the heart of the Pacific—and cannot be backfilled with permanently assigned fighters. That is the consequence of retiring more aircraft than we buy, year after year.

Interestingly, U.S. allies seem to get what is at stake and are making defense investments a key priority. The U.K. recently announced a new round of sustained investment, with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak explaining “A victory for authoritarianism and aggression would make us all less secure.” Sweden, Japan, and Canada are all pursuing similar increases. While this is encouraging, America’s scale and stature is the keystone for any consequential security effort.

Many U.S. leaders know this, even as they struggle to convince colleagues. That is why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel (R-KY) said passing aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan was “a skirmish in a larger war” against an isolationist wave in Congress and elsewhere in America. It is also why Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Tester (D-MT) pushed back on the defense caps in a recent hearing: “If we’re going to invest in future technologies, this number has to be bigger.”

After years of atrophy, progress in this fight cannot happen soon enough.

Those questioning whether America still needs to play a leading security role in the world need to consider the alternatives. Our nation may be far from perfect, but the freedoms we enjoy far outstrip those afforded to people in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Does anyone really think a wider Middle East at war is in U.S. interests? Do any Americans want a broader conflict in Europe? Or to see China dominating its neighbors in the Pacific?

Any one of these outcomes would prove catastrophic. Together, they would be world-changing, and not in a good way. America must draw clear lines, define viable strategies, and align military capability and capacity with real-world demand. Doing so can deter the worst instincts of our adversaries and preserve peace in the global commons.

Douglas A. Birkey is the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

In Grassroots Effort, Airmen Worldwide Come Together to Grieve SrA Roger Fortson

May 16, 2024 | By David Roza

In a grassroots effort, Airmen around the world are coming together to remember Senior Airman Roger Fortson, 23, who was killed by a sheriff’s deputy in Florida on May 3.

While responding to a disturbance call at an apartment complex at Fort Walton Beach, Fla., a deputy for the Okaloosa County Sheriff’s Office shot Fortson six times after the Airman opened his apartment door while holding his legally-owned handgun at his side, pointing downwards.

The death of Fortson, who was Black, has sparked grief and outrage among many Air Force members and led to discussions about race, policing, and gun rights.

On the social media platform Discord, Airmen from more than a dozen locations as distant as Osan Air Base, South Korea; Travis Air Force Base, Calif.; and Ramstein Air Base, Germany shared advice for talking with base leadership, setting up memorial events, and raising money for Fortson’s family.

“It is so important that we express this is for a fellow wingman,” wrote one Discord user. “Choose your words very wisely when speaking to leadership so they support us supporting our wingman.”

Though many of the events are scheduled for the week of May 20, some are timed in coordination with Fortson’s memorial service, which will be livestreamed from Stonecrest, Ga. on May 17. Fortson’s home base, Hurlburt Field, Fla., will stream the service in its chapel, while Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., is holding a moment of silence at 8 a.m. Pacific Time to coincide with the start of the service, a base spokesperson said.

Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, is also hosting an observance honoring Fortson, according to a flier posted to the popular Facebook page Air Force amn/nco/snco, another social media platform where Airmen are discussing and processing Fortson’s death, along with the unofficial Air Force subreddit.

The unofficial Air Force web panel series Crucial Convo will host a Zoom call on May 20 “to listen, lift, love, and heal” in Fortson’s memory. Meanwhile, the head of Air Force Special Operations Command pledged to hold a town hall for his troops to discuss the incident. The event is open to Airmen assigned to Hurlburt, an AFSOC spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“[O]ur Air Commandos need an opportunity to be updated on this tragic loss, share their perspective, and be heard,” Lt. Gen. Tony D. Bauernfeind said in a May 15 Facebook post. “We will host a town hall in the coming days to allow for just that.”

The post came after Bauernfeind met with leaders from Hurlburt Field, local pastors and community groups, the NAACP, and the Okaloosa County Sheriff’s Office. Bauernfeind said the meeting included an “explanation of the investigation process” being conducted by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.

Footage from the deputy’s body camera released by the sheriff’s office shows the deputy at first knocking on the door and identifying himself while standing to the side. He then knocked again, and when Fortson opened the door, the deputy told Fortson to step back before shooting him six times. At a May 16 press conference, a lawyer for Fortson’s family, Ben Crump, said the deputy had been called to the wrong apartment.

By all accounts, Fortson was a solid Airman. A special missions aviator with the 73rd and 4th Special Operations Squadrons that fly AC-130 gunships, Fortson’s decorations included an Air Force Achievement Medal and Air Medal with a ‘C’ device, which indicates service or achievement under combat conditions, according to the 1st Special Operations Wing. He entered the Air Force in 2019 and deployed to Southwest Asia in mid-2023.

“He was one of one. Everything you wanted in a wingman, friend, and brother,” a fellow Airman, Aaron Rozier, told NBC News. The aviator was “someone who would see you at your lowest and wouldn’t judge you for it,” he added. “But you knew he would crack a joke about it that would make you laugh.”

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force David A. Flosi wrote on Facebook on May 10 that Fortson’s “untimely and tragic death is weighing heavily on me. We’ve lost a teammate, and it hurts.” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin have not yet weighed in publicly.

Others have been more vocal, including Chief Master Sgt. Ronnie J. Woods, top enlisted leader for the 8th Air Force and senior enlisted leader for the Joint-Global Strike Operations Center.

“SrA Fortson is no different than SrA Woods back in 2001. A young man serving his country and trying to make his family proud,” Woods wrote in a Facebook post addressed to Fortson’s mother, Chantemekki Fortson.

Fortson’s death is a reminder for many Airmen that even military members can be killed in encounters with police, former CMSAF Kaleth O. Wright told the Associated Press.

“I doubt if that police officer knew or cared that Roger was an Airman,” Wright said. “What he saw was a young, Black male … That could have easily been one of my sons.”

In 2020, Wright, who is also Black, made headlines for speaking frankly about his own struggles with racism after the death of George Floyd. Wright’s comments came shortly after the Air Force was criticized for attempting to bury reports of racial disparities in its justice system. Combined, the two events contributed to a series of studies on racial and gender disparities in the service and a renewed discussion on how to talk about race, starting with Wright and then-Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein.

“Most of the systems in our Air Force have been designed by people like me, for people like me,” Goldfein said at the time. “So therefore, I’ve got blinders on that are going to keep me from seeing what others with a different life experience and background are going to see.”

Now, four years later, Wright was skeptical about the chances of long-lasting change from Fortson’s death, but he encouraged commanders to listen to the experiences of their Airmen. Several Air Force leaders called for similar discussions.

“I am thankful for all who took part in the difficult conversations on Monday,” Col. Patrick Dierig, commander of the 1st Special Operations Wing, wrote in a May 16 Facebook post. “Those conversations must continue and be part of our healing process. We are stronger united and we are united when we are heard but also when we listen.”

What Will USAF Do With the Money It Saves from Retiring a B-2?

May 16, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

After the Air Force recently revealed it will divest one of its 20 remaining B-2 bombers, deeming it uneconomical to fix after a December 2022 mishap, a service spokesperson said the projected savings associated with the move—some $176 million in operations and maintenance over the next five years—won’t be poured into the rest of the fleet.

That stands in contrast to what the Air Force did three years ago when it retired 17 of its 62 B-1 bombers. Rather than cut the B-1’s O&M funding, the service used the freed-up dollars to increase the Lancer’s availability.

“The fiscal year 2025 budget request invests in both building upon our modernization efforts and resourcing readiness,” a spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “Potential savings in some areas”—including B-2 O&M—“must be managed at the enterprise level to account for increased costs in others to support National Defense Strategy priorities, which include defending the homeland, deterring strategic attacks, deterring aggression and building a resilient joint force.”

“We take a holistic view when developing the budget,” another spokesperson said.

The availability and remaining service life for both the B-1 and B-2 fleets are the source of much speculation as the Air Force has been cagey with details while it plans out the transition to the new B-21 Raider.

The spokesperson did say both the B-1 and B-2 fleets will be gradually drawn down as the inventory of B-21s increases, seemingly ruling out any mass retirements of B-2s or B-1s as fresh aircraft become operational.

Asked if the start of flight testing on the first B-21 coinciding with the divestment of the first B-2 indicates the Spirit will retire on a one-for-one basis as Raiders enter the inventory, the spokesperson said “the Air Force will incrementally retire existing B-1 and B-2 aircraft as B-21s come on line. For operational security reasons, we are not going to get into specifics.”

According to an April force structure report issued by the Pentagon, the Air Force stands to save $176 million in O&M and $34 million in associated personnel costs through fiscal 2029 by retiring just one B-2: more than $210 million total.

However, the spokesperson said no decision has been made about how much to cut or move the manpower footprint associated with the aircraft.

“The Fiscal Year 2025 budget request will divest one B-2,” the spokesperson said. “That divestment will reduce requirements for certain depot maintenance and contractor logistics support functions, but specific changes to manpower authorizations will be decided at a later time.”

The second spokesperson clarified that even though the condemned aircraft wasn’t considered part of the fleet when the 2025 budget was built, “it does not mean we were already planning to divest a B-2.”

The B-21’s first operating station will be at Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., where military construction to prepare for the new bomber has been underway for some time. The Air Force has previously said that manpower billets will shift from the B-1 and B-2 to B-21 as the latter program matures. The service has also said that the first B-21 test aircraft will be “usable assets” for combat “in the mid-2020s.”

The Air Force recently awarded an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract worth up to $7 billion to B-2 prime Northrop Grumman for depot and line maintenance to carry the B-2 fleet through to its retirement. Although the Air Force has been unclear about when exactly the B-2 fleet will be completely retired, the contract—as well as future years defense plan estimates for B-2 research and development and procurement—end in fiscal 2028.

The service declined to say how much it would cost to fix the damaged B-2 and bring it back into service, citing the “ongoing accident investigation.” For similar reasons, it won’t discuss the specific damages sustained by the mishap airplane.

After a B-2 was badly damaged in a 2010 accident at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, the Air Force said it couldn’t bear to lose even one B-2 from the inventory and undertook a repair effort that cost more than $100 million over four years. If the late 2022 mishap aircraft needed a similar repair time, it would likely serve only two years or so before the B-2 fleet is retired, potentially explaining why the Air Force has decided not to fix it.

Counting aircraft in depot, maintenance and test, the divestment of another B-2—the second lost out of an original fleet of 21—means the Air Force has about 13 of the bombers available for combat at any time.

Pentagon, USAF Report Decrease in Sexual Assault, But Most Women Don’t Trust System

May 16, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Sexual assaults in the U.S. military decreased for the first time in nearly a decade last year, according to a new survey—but the Defense Department still faces deep mistrust among many women service members in how it handles cases.

“We know we have a lot more work to do to rebuild trust, especially amongst our servicewomen,” Beth Foster, the executive director of the Pentagon’s Office of Force Resiliency, told reporters.

The DOD puts out a yearly accounting of reported sexual assaults, but the biannual, anonymous survey of sexual assault prevalence, released May 16, is seen as a far better indicator of actual incidents because sexual assault is dramatically unreported in both military and civilian life. Officials said reported cases were just a quarter of the total estimate of sexual assaults involving a service member in 2023.

Overall, roughly 29,000 troops said they were sexually assaulted in fiscal 2023 in the anonymous survey, a 7,000-person decrease compared to the 36,000 in 2021. The Pentagon said the decrease was primarily driven by decreases in estimated cases of sexual assault against women serving in the Air Force—from 5.5 percent to 4.6 percent of female Airmen—and the Navy.

For the first time, the Space Force was included separately in the Pentagon’s survey—an estimated 6.1 percent of female Guardians and 0.6 percent of male Guardians said they were sexually assaulted last year. One percent of male Airmen said they were sexually assaulted in the past year, the same as in 2021.

“Its findings demonstrate that the department is making progress to prevent sexual assault and harassment in the military,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement on the report.

An estimated 6.8 percent of Active duty women experienced sexual assault in 2023—approximately a 1.6 percent decrease from 2021. Just over 1 percent of men said they were sexually assaulted, which Pentagon officials said was not a statistically significant change. Among women, the 2023 report still found the second-highest rate of sexual assault recorded since 2006—also 6.8 percent that year. However, the release of the 2023 numbers marked the first time since 2016 that there had been a drop from the prior report.

But while rates were lower, the report found the majority of women surveyed did not have trust in the military’s handling of sexual assault. Just 38 percent of women surveyed trusted the military to protect their privacy if they were sexually assaulted. Service members were also asked if they believed the military could “ensure your safety” and “treat you with dignity and respect” if they were sexually assaulted—only 43 percent of women said yes to those questions, which were asked separately. Those numbers were only slight improvements over 2021, despite a number of efforts in recent years to combat sexual assault in the military. In contrast, roughly two-thirds of men said trusted the military with their privacy and safety if they were sexually assaulted.

“There’s much more to do,” said Nate Galbreath, the acting director of the Pentagon’s Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office, or SAPR. “We do know that climates of trust, where people can see that victims of sexual assault are treated well when they come forward to make a report often encourage others to come forward and make a report.”

There were 1,838 official reports of sexual assault received by the Department of the Air Force in 2023, a drop of five percent from 2022, a year which had a dramatic rise.

However, “this is the second highest number of reports received since the beginning of the SAPR program” roughly 15 years ago, the Air Force report stated.

The Pentagon has taken steps to improve how it handles sexual assaults. Since the end of last year, independent prosecutors outside service members’ chain of command now handle sexual assault cases, a long-awaited move that is intended to remove bias or potential retaliation from the equation. Pentagon officials said they hoped that would restore troops’ faith that cases would not be swept under the rug.

“Our hope is that we can regain some trust amongst our victims so that they know that their cases are being treated independently and with the professional nature that is required of these crimes,” Foster said.

The Department of Defense has also hired around 1,000 staff to focus on the prevention of sexual assault, with the ultimate goal of hiring 2,500 personnel.

“We’re focused on professionalizing our sexual assault response workforce,” Foster said. “A lot of these folks are performing that role in a collateral duty role, and while they may be very dedicated to that work, victim assistance is a full-time job. We also are focusing on making that workforce independent as well because we know there have been instances in which our service members haven’t trusted the people, the victim advocates, that they need to trust to take care of them because they’ve been aligned with command. And so a lot of those changes are underway, but we know it’s going to take some time before we start to see those numbers shift.”

F-22s Practice Dogfights over the Korean Peninsula with ROK F-35s

May 16, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

A pair of U.S. F-22s practiced dogfighting with South Korean F-35As on May 16, making a rare appearance over the peninsula’s inland airspace.

The training saw the four stealthy fighters engaging in close-range air combat maneuver, taking turns in offensive and defensive posture in simulated confrontation scenarios, the Republic of Korea Air Force said in a release.

Four Raptors arrived earlier this week at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea. The F-22s, assigned to the 19th and 199th Expeditionary Fighter Squadrons of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii, have been operating out of Kadena Air Base in Japan since mid-April.

Kunsan’s 8th Fighter Wing said in a release that it will house, facilitate maintenance, and project the jets into South Korea’s airspace over the course of the next week. For now, it’s unclear if the Raptors will participate in more joint drills alongside the ROK Air Force during its upcoming biennial training starting May 17, featuring its F-35As, F-15Ks, F-16s, and FA-50s.

The 8th Fighter Wing’s release did note the F-22s would help “test Agile Combat Employment (ACE) capabilities within the Indo-Pacific region.” Air Force leaders have championed ACE—defined by small teams of Airmen and aircraft operating from remote or austere bases and moving quickly—as a key part of the service’s pivot toward great power competition with the likes of China.

To that end, the Air Force has been ramping up ACE training for months now, and the F-22 is no exception.

The Raptors’ presence in or near South Korea is unusual but not uncommon. Last February, B-1 Lancer and F-22 Raptors flew alongside Korean F-35s over the Yellow Sea. In December 2022, F-22s and Korean F-35 and F-15K fighter jets escorted a B-52 bomber near the waters off the peninsula. Most recently, Raptors were featured in Seoul’s defense exhibition in October. However, the air dominance fighter rarely participates in exercises over the Korean Peninsula.