Fresh F-15E Fighters Arrive in Middle East to Replace Departing Jets

Fresh F-15E Fighters Arrive in Middle East to Replace Departing Jets

Nov. 12, 2024 | By Greg Hadley and Chris Gordon

F-15Es from the 492nd Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath, U.K., have deployed to the Middle East, replacing Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., that recently wrapped up a rotation in the region.

U.S. Central Command noted the arrival of the Lakenheath F-15s on social media, and multiple officials confirmed the deployment to Air & Space Forces Magazine. On Nov. 1, the Pentagon announced it was sending additional forces to the Middle East to compensate for the upcoming departure of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. U.S. officials previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the extra airpower would include F-15Es, but did not specify from where they would deploy. 

The recently departed Seymour Johnson F-15Es first arrived in the Middle East in April, just before Iran launched a massive attack on Israel that included 300-plus one-way drones and missiles. Members of the 335th Fighter Squadron helped defend against that attack.  

Then, in October, the “SJ” fighters had their deployment extended as the Pentagon sought to bolster its regional airpower following Israel’s killing of Lebanese Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, which led to Iran retaliating with a salvo of some 180 ballistic missiles. 

A month later, those Airmen and fighters finally started returning home. Local spotters and flight trackers noted the F-15Es stopping over at Lakenheath on the way back. Several are still at the base in England.  

Meanwhile, the Lakenheath jets are joining other F-15Es from Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, in the Middle East. The 492nd Fighter Squadron arrives a year after its sister unit at Lakenheath, the 494th Fighter Squadron, first deployed to the region. The 494th also played a key role in repelling Iran’s April attack before returning in May after a seven-month deployment. 

CENTCOM has significantly upped its airpower in recent months, deploying more F-16s, F-15s, and A-10s—plus KC-46 tankers—in October, then adding B-52 bombers earlier this month before the most recent F-15Es. These moves come as Israel considers how it will respond to Iran’s latest salvo and as U.S. officials stress their desire to avoid the conflict spiraling into a large-scale regional war. 

A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle from the 492nd Fighter Squadron, RAF Lakenheath, England, arrives in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. U.S. Air Force photo

Skunk Works Uncrewed NGAS Concept Gets New Attention

Skunk Works Uncrewed NGAS Concept Gets New Attention

Nov. 9, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

An artist’s rendering of a Lockheed Martin Skunk Works concept for a potential stealthy and autonomous Next-Generation Aerial-refueling System (NGAS) aircraft is getting new attention after a repeat display at the recent Airlift/Tanker Association meeting.

The concept breaks with many other notional futuristic tanker designs which have been variations on a crewed flying wing or blended wing body. The Skunk Works artwork shows an uncrewed aircraft with a conventional planform, shaped for some degree of stealth.

The image, displayed at the A/TA’s conference last week in Grapevine, Texas, reveals a highly flattened design with Air Force-style refueling booms deployed from pods on the far outboard of the wings. Two outward-canted stabilizers at the tips of the elevators sit well apart from a central, sawtooth exhaust, but out of the way of the two refueling stations. The exhaust suggests a single engine, but the angle of the depiction does not reveal where the air intakes are, or their shaping.

Another image of the same concept published by The War Zone also conceals the intake shaping. The image shown at A/TA was first published by Aviation Week.

It’s not clear whether the flying booms used to connect to receiver aircraft could be made stealthy, a problem long acknowledged by designers. The ones shown in the image appear similar to those used on the KC-135, although a differently-colored leading edge on the control winglets may suggest a stealth treatment.  

The notional NGAS images show the aircraft refueling two Lockheed F-35s. No central refueling station is depicted, nor is there an indication of a Navy-style probe-and-drogue capability.   

There is no apparent cockpit in the images, indicating the aircraft would be autonomous. That fits with a growing trend, as Boeing’s MQ-25 tanker for the Navy is an autonomous aircraft, and several other companies have demonstrated the ability to conduct air refueling without a human crew onboard. The Air Force has also expressed a desire to reduce the number of aircrew required on tankers.

The general shaping of the design—chines, sawtooth seams, and wing leading edges at the same angle as the elevators—suggest a low-observable design, but perhaps not an extremely low observable concept.

“This graphic depicts a notional concept of an optionally-crewed future air-refueling platform,” a Skunk Works spokesperson said.

“Our team has been maturing the next generation of air mobility through investments in survivability, autonomy, resilient communications and digital transformation that will enable the range and persistence needed for contested air refueling operation.”

The spokesperson noted that the design was publicly displayed at the 2023 A/TA conference but it “didn’t draw the attention it’s receiving this year.” Lockheed has subsequently released other NGAS artist’s concepts, and the spokesperson said none of them exactly represent what the company may submit to the Air Force for an NGAS competition.  

The concept art is drawing attention as the Air Force wraps up its NGAS Analysis of Alternatives. Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter has said on various occasions that the AOA would be concluded in the fall of calendar 2024 and provide a way ahead for NGAS and a potential “bridge tanker.”

Hunter has described the latter as a way to keep some kind of tanker in production until the stealthy NGAS is available, circa 2033-2035. The current contract for Boeing KC-46As concludes around 2028 at 179 aircraft. Air Force officials have said the “bridge tanker” program could involve as many as 75 aircraft.

The concept for the NGAS is that it will accompany crewed fighters and Collaborative Combat Aircraft into contested airspace. It will be much smaller than traditional tankers like the KC-46 and KC-135 in order to have comparable stealth with the aircraft it escorts, and to be able to operate out of smaller airfields. The concept also calls for the NGAS to shuttle between older, larger tankers, flying out of reach of adversary missiles, and combat aircraft well inside the combat zone. The Lockheed concept shows the tanker with an aerial refueling receptacle of its own, centrally located on the aircraft’s spine.

Whether the NGAS will come to fruition is in considerable doubt, however. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, speaking at the A/TA meeting, said the service cannot simultaneously afford the NGAS, Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) air superiority fighter and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) fleet of autonomous wingman drones simultaneously. Absent a large influx of resources, the Air Force will have to “get creative” to come up with a scheme for air dominance that will work with a mix of new and old systems.

Analysts at several think tanks have said that five percent funding increase above inflation for the U.S. military, suggested by some close to incoming President Donald Trump, would not be sufficient to address the wave of conventional and strategic weapons modernization deficits facing the Air Force.

The F-16 Has No Built-In Ladder, But That Could Change Soon Thanks to One Pilot

The F-16 Has No Built-In Ladder, But That Could Change Soon Thanks to One Pilot

Nov. 8, 2024 | By David Roza

While helping design the aircraft that would eventually become the F-15 and F-16 in the 1960s and 1970s, Col. John Boyd sought to cut as much weight as possible to make the aircraft more maneuverable and affordable. That meant no built-in ladders to carry into forward areas.

“Tell them to get some goddamn orange crates and climb on those,” Boyd said, according to a 2002 biography written by Robert Coram.

While the F-15 eventually got a built-in ladder, the F-16 did not, leaving pilots to rely on prepositioned ladders or awkwardly skitter along the aircraft’s fuselage before jumping down from the wing, not the most ideal or safe solution when pressed for time in a combat zone.

But one enterprising F-16 pilot has designed a lightweight ladder that Viper drivers can carry into battle without Boyd rolling over in his grave. 

The F-16 cockpit collapsible Agile Combat Employment ladder weighs just six pounds and folds into the cockpit map case, which goes unused in an age where electronic tablets have largely replaced paper maps and publications.

f-16 ladder
Maj. Nicholas Atkins included a photo of the prototype collapsable F-16 ladder in his Spark Tank pitch video. (Air Force photo)

The idea just took the top prize at Spark Tank, the annual contest where Airmen, Guardians, and their civilian counterparts submit ideas to improve the force. 

The ladder project lead, Maj. Nicholas Atkins, an F-16 pilot with the 31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base, Italy, said the ladder would help enable Agile Combat Employment, the concept where Airmen launch and recover aircraft from small, scattered airfields to minimize the chance of being targeted by long-range missiles. 

Today’s bulky ladders take up precious space and weight on cargo aircraft tasked with moving troops, supplies, and equipment in and out of airfields as part of ACE, Atkins explained in a pitch video. Cutting that weight out of the logistics requirement for moving an F-16 squadron may not be the kind of maneuverability that Boyd envisioned, but it’s what Air Force officials say is needed to win a conflict with China or Russia.

“This enhances flexibility for the warfighter: from the fighter pilot in the seat, to the commander in the field, to the [Air Operations Center] controlling the war, enabling the agility required for great power competition,” Atkins said.

Maj. Nicholas Atkins included a photo of the prototype collapsable F-16 ladder stowed in the F-16 cockpit map case in his Spark Tank pitch video. (Air Force photo)

The Climb

Refining, mass-producing, and distributing the ladder across the Air Force will take effort. There are several dozen F-16 squadrons, and Atkins envisions 18 ladders per squadron, starting with those based in Europe and the Pacific.

“This would allow us to get ladders to the warfighters closest to the fight and most likely to immediately ACE first,” he said. “After this initial buy, we could continue to phase in Air Combat Command assets, thereby enhancing the capability for follow-on forces.” 

Atkins has already set up an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract with Bunker Supply, an equipment development and manufacturing firm, to design a new version of the ladder with input from the Air Force’s F-16 System Program Office. But more work is needed; in his pitch video to Spark Tank, Atkins said the project needs $548,000 to achieve interim prototype testing and refinement to make sure the design can be mass-produced and bought online by F-16 squadrons. 

The ladder faced tough competition at Spark Tank. Other ideas included an app to help streamline mission prep and cargo configuration for transport loadmasters; an autonomous flightline resupply vehicle for aircraft maintainers; and a project to train and supply Air Force medics for performing whole blood transfusions in the field. The panel of judges included Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife, Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, and other top Air and Space Force officials and industry experts.

“What a tough set of decisions and just a remarkable opportunity today to be able to engage with our innovators in the Department of the Air Force,” Undersecretary of the Air Force Melissa Dalton said in a press release. “So inspirational. Please keep innovating, please keep leading yourselves and encouraging others to lead innovation.”

Winning Spark Tank does not guarantee funding, since not all finalists need or request funding, Air Force spokesperson Laurel Falls told Air & Space Forces Magazine. Instead, it helps connect finalists and semifinalists with top service officials, industry experts, and other innovation development groups, such as AFWERX, who can offer guidance.

Falls said other benefits include “opening doors for patent filings and partnerships with industry through AFWERX or the Program Offices and provides opportunities for the broader industry base to help us solve these challenges versus relying only on [original equipment manufacturer] vendors.”

Maj. Nicholas Atkin’s Spark Tank pitch included a projected timeline for developing, producing, and distributing the collapsable F-16 ladder.

What’s next for the ladder project? Falls said the team needs to update its statement of work (SOW) for their assigned contract support team, who will then help them get the ladder through prototyping and ready for online purchase. Atkins will also need to meet with various offices to nail down other kinds of support needed to scale up, and use of the ladder will have to be authorized via Technical Order updates.

“While Spark Tank helped secure initial resources and connections, fully executing the collapsible ladder project will require additional funding,” Falls said. “Nonetheless, both the visibility and credibility gained from Spark Tank have accelerated connections with Air Staff and functional decision-makers and that’s crucial for advancing the project.”

The spokesperson said the ladders are expected to be authorized and available for squadrons to purchase by fall 2025. The ladders are expected to cost a little less than $2,000 each. 

Most other Air Force fighter jets have built-in ladders to use if more sturdy external ones are not available. The F-22 does not have one, though Hawaii Air National Guardsmen tested a prototype collapsible ladder at an exercise in 2023.

PHOTOS: Nearly 15 Percent of Air Force B-52 Bombers Deployed

PHOTOS: Nearly 15 Percent of Air Force B-52 Bombers Deployed

Nov. 8, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Ten B-52 Stratofortresses are currently deployed across Europe and the Middle East, representing nearly 15 percent of the entire U.S. Air Force fleet and an even larger chunk of combat-ready B-52s available. 

U.S. Air Forces in Europe announced Nov. 8 that four B-52s have deployed to RAF Fairford, U.K., for a Bomber Task Force. Air & Space Forces Magazine previously reported that B-52s were deploying to Europe, but the Air Force had not disclosed the total number or their operating location.

That deployment comes on top of six B-52s that landed in the Middle East a few weeks ago to deter Iran and its proxies in the region. 

USAF regularly sends bombers around the globe for task force deployments, and it is not unprecedented for bomber deployments to overlap. 

But the sheer number of B-52s currently deployed overseas marks a high since the Air Force implemented Bomber Task Forces several years ago. 

The Air Force has 76 B-52s in its inventory, so 10 deployed equals 13.2 percent of the fleet.

But of those 76, there are several constantly being cycled through depot maintenance, and several more are dedicated to testing weapons and upgrades like the bombers’ new engines and radar. On top of that, the fleet had a mission capable rate of 54 percent in 2023, which measures the percentage of time an aircraft is able to perform at least one of its core missions. 

Taken together, and the 10 B-52s currently deployed could represent upwards of a quarter of the combat-ready fleet. 

The bombers that went to Europe kicked off their deployment by flying alongside Finnish F-18 Hornets and Swedish JAS 39 Gripens—a noteworthy integration with NATO’s two new allies in the Arctic region. 

“This Bomber Task Force mission exemplifies our unwavering commitment to our European Allies and partners. Together, we build stronger, more strategic relationships that reinforce security and stability across the region,” Gen. James Hecker, commander of USAFE, said in a statement.

Reserve Wing Becomes First in the Air Force to Get Its Own F-35

Reserve Wing Becomes First in the Air Force to Get Its Own F-35

Nov. 8, 2024 | By Greg Hadley and David Roza

The 301st Fighter Wing in Fort Worth, Texas, became the first standalone Reserve unit in the Air Force to get its own F-35, welcoming the first fighter Nov. 5. 

Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, where the wing is based, is now the 12th location to host the F-35A across the Air Force. 

The first aircraft didn’t have to go very far—the base shares a runway with the F-35 maker Lockheed Martin, and aviation photographers even snapped pictures of the jet with the “TX” tail code flying in October. A wing spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine the fighter was undergoing checkout flights and had not been formally delivered at that point. 

It’s also not the first F-35 to be flown by the 301st—back in August, the wing borrowed two new F-35s that are assigned to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, to allow their pilots and crews to start training on the aircraft. That number eventually increased to five. 

One of those jets was used in a Nov. 2 ceremony to celebrate the first aircraft arrival, as the Reserve unit was still waiting for its own assigned F-35 to complete the acceptance process.  

Col. Benjamin R. Harrison, commander of the wing, said at the ceremony that his team is “ready to embrace this new era, and the F-35 is our vehicle to achieving sustainable air superiority.” 

Three days later, Harrison was on hand to welcome the first aircraft in person. 

A wing spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the 301st expects to receive its full complement of 26 F-35s over the next 12-15 months. 

Lockheed has been scrambling to up its rate of F-35 deliveries to units after having to store newly built jets for nearly a year due to incomplete software testing. Deliveries resumed in July, and the long hold disrupted absorption and equipage plans among users, who could not efficiently train new pilots and maintainers of the fighter. 

The 301st Fighter Wing is the first standalone Reserve unit to get the F-35—the Reserve’s 419th Fighter Wing at Hill uses the Active-Duty 388th Fighter Wing’s jets. 

No other Reserve units have been selected to receive the F-35 yet, but three Guard units are slated to get new fighters in 2025. 

F-35 Locations

BaseStateComponentFirst Aircraft Arrival
Edwards Air Force BaseCaliforniaActive2011
Eglin Air Force BaseFloridaActive2011
Nellis Air Force BaseNevadaActive2013
Luke Air Force BaseArizonaActive2014
Hill Air Force BaseUtahActive2015
Burlington Air National Guard BaseVermontGuard2019
Eielson Air Force BaseAlaskaActive2020
Royal Air Force LakenheathUKActive2021
Truax Field Air National Guard BaseWisconsinGuard2023
Dannelly FieldAlabamaGuard2023
Tyndall Air Force BaseFloridaActive2023
NAS-JRB Fort WorthTexasReserve2024
Jacksonville Air National Guard BaseFloridaGuard2025
Barnes Air National Guard BaseMassachusettsGuard2025
Kingsley FieldOregonGuard2026
Moody Air Force BaseGeorgiaActive2029
Misawa Air BaseJapanActiveTBA
Locations in bold indicate future placements
What Military Personnel Policies Could Change Under President Trump

What Military Personnel Policies Could Change Under President Trump

Nov. 8, 2024 | By David Roza

When President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, he may quickly reverse military policies regarding abortion and transgender service members, though recent pushes in Congress to improve military pay and quality of life will likely continue, according to a leading national security expert.

First up might be a policy put in place in 2022 by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III that provides paid leave and reimburses transportation costs for troops who travel out-of-state for an abortion and other reproductive care such as in vitro fertilization, though the service members pay for the actual health care service themselves. 

The policy was put in place in response to the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade earlier that year, which led to abortion bans in roughly a dozen states and restrictions in more, including several with large military bases.

Austin argued the overturning of Roe v. Wade would harm readiness, recruiting, and retention for service members wanting to start a family or avoid starting a family at the wrong time. The policy, however, was bound by two laws, explained Katherine Kuzminski, Deputy Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security. The first, Section 1093 of Title 10 of U.S. Code, prohibits abortions from being performed on military bases except in cases of rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is in danger. The second is the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits federal funds from being used to pay for abortions.

“That’s how this travel policy came about, which is ‘we’ll pay for your travel if you’re in a state that doesn’t allow abortion’,” Kuzminski explained. But cementing that policy with a law would have required an act of Congress, a tall order given the political debate around the issue. 

“This was a DOD pronouncement through the administration, it wasn’t anything that was solidified in law,” she explained. “It lacked permanence.”

Voters on Nov. 5 lifted abortion bans in Missouri and Arizona and passed new protections in states such as Colorado and Montana, but full or partial bans remain in place in other states such as South Dakota, Florida, and Nebraska, which all host Air Force bases.

In October, Trump said he would veto a federal abortion ban in favor of letting states decide their own policies, though historically the President-elect has taken anti-abortion positions. In Congress, many of Republicans closely tied to Trump blasted Austin and President Joe Biden for the abortion travel policy. 

Despite the heated political debate around the policy, the Pentagon said in March that troops only took advantage of it 12 times across the military at the cost of about $45,000 between June and December 2023.

Still, some experts such as Tony Johnson, president and CEO of the Truman National Security Project, say access to reproductive care is a quality-of-life issue that needs to be prioritized.

“I think to set that aside nonchalantly is a mistake and it really impacts readiness,” said the retired Navy officer. “If service members or their spouses are having pregnancy issues or any other reproductive issues, they are worried about the safety of their families, and you can’t focus on your job if you’re afraid something bad is happening at home.”

Butch Bracknell, a retired Marine judge advocate and national security expert, noted that if troops want access to reproductive care, they won’t want to be assigned to bases in states that ban it. He said access to that care makes California a much more appealing duty station for his daughter, who is in the Navy, than other states with more restrictive reproductive care policies.

Transgender Troops

Another policy that seems likely to change during Trump’s second term is whether transgender people can serve openly in uniform. In 2016, then-Defense Secretary Ash Carter lifted a ban on transgender service across the military, but Trump reimplemented it in 2017 during his first term. At the time, House lawmakers were debating whether or not the Department of Veterans Affairs should cover gender-affirming care for transgender veterans, Kuzminski explained.

“Trump jumped in with a tweet and said ‘I’m banning all transgender service members,’ which really upped the stakes, because the debate on the Republican side at that point was not banning transgender individuals from service,” she said. “He kind of came off the top rope.”

The ban was lifted again under Biden in 2021, but Trump has opposed transgender troops serving openly throughout his reelection campaign, which raises the likelihood of another ban. Another possibility might be that Trump does not ban transgender troops from serving openly, but the Pentagon has no liability or responsibility to provide gender-affirming care, Kuzminski said.

From 2016 to 2021, the Pentagon spent $15 million to treat transgender troops: $11.5 million for psychotherapy and $3.1 million for surgeries, according to data obtained by Military.com. The military spends more than $6 billion on health care for active-duty troops.

A DOD-commissioned study conducted by the RAND Corp. in 2016 estimated health care costs for transgender troops would be about $2.4 million and $8.4 million annually—which would be just a 0.04-0.13 percent increase.

Trump has argued that the cost of providing gender-affirming care is exorbitant for a procedure that validates service member’s sexual identity. However, previous news reports found that Pentagon spent more—$41.6 million—every year on Viagra, another treatment related to service members’ sexual identity.

It is not clear exactly how many transgender troops currently serve: the military has cited a 2016 survey where just under 9,000 service members identified as transgender, while a research institute pinned the number at just under 15,000. Either number is a fraction of the roughly two million people in uniform, but that fraction deserves a chance to serve, argued Johnson.

Pay and More

Earlier this spring, the House Armed Services Committee published a Quality of Life report recommending a host of changes to address food insecurity, insufficient housing allowance, dilapidated barracks, child care shortages, long wait times for medical appointments, and other day-to-day issues service members face. Those recommendations, including a 15 percent pay raise for junior enlisted troops, were included in the House version of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act.

President Biden’s administration opposed the pay raise, which Congress estimates would cost $24 billion over five years, until the Pentagon finishes its quadrennial review of compensation, due to be completed in January. Kuzminski said troops likely won’t have to worry about support for the pay raise and other quality of life improvements in Congress, given their bipartisan support.

“This is one of those rare areas where we do see quite a bit of bipartisan agreement across administrations,” she said. “Military families are not only a policy portfolio, they are also a constituency, and so it behooves both presidents and Congresses to care about them.” 

But a different issue which may raise partisan hackles is whether to stand up a Space National Guard, a move which the Department of the Air Force and the Biden administration opposes but which Trump, National Guard leaders, and some lawmakers support. 

National Guard leaders said in April that creating a Space guard would “work exactly it is right now” with Air National Guard units that perform space missions, but Kuzminski said it could raise issues such as whether to expand the number of general officers to lead each state’s Space Guard or to group them under each state’s Air National Guard adjutant general; and what more generals might do to the balance of grade pay across the services.

The Space Force is currently figuring out how to implement a separate law, the Space Force Personnel Management Act, which creates options for Guardians to serve in part-time or full-time capacity. The concept would be a first for the military, and it is designed to make it easier for Guardians to pursue professional and personal goals. 

Services are bound to work within the laws Congress passes, Kuzminski explained, and Congress has not yet mandated the Space Force figure out how a Space National Guard would work alongside or in lieu of a part-time/full-time force.

“The services’ core functionality is contingency planning, but when it comes to actually coming up with an implementation plan, you can’t have a plan B in case it goes a different direction,” she said. “You have to wait until that changes and then come up with your implementation plan.” 

Pentagon Plans $6 Billion in Ukraine Aid Ahead of Presidential Change

Pentagon Plans $6 Billion in Ukraine Aid Ahead of Presidential Change

Nov. 7, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

President Joe Biden’s administration plans to commit some $6 billion in aid for Ukraine in the next two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, a Pentagon spokesperson confirmed Nov. 7. 

Roughly two-thirds of that aid, or $4 billion, will come in the form of Presidential Drawdown Authority packages—weapons and equipment drawn from U.S. stockpiles—while the other one-third, or $2 billion will be procured new as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters. 

The rush to get that aid committed comes amid uncertainty as to whether the incoming presidential administration will keep up aid deliveries to Ukraine. On the campaign trail, Trump expressed some criticism over the amount of aid being sent to Ukraine and how it was structured. However, Trump did not publicly oppose a $61 billion aid package passed by Congress in April. 

It remains to be seen whether the Pentagon can get most of its remaining authorized aid out the door before the presidential transition. Presidential authority drawdown packages can be delivered faster because they draw from existing stocks, but Singh acknowledged that the process can still take time to get across the Atlantic and into Ukraine. 

“Some things can arrive within days and weeks. Some items in those packages take longer,” Singh said. “It does matter what’s available on our stock, on our shelves. You’re going to see us continue to draw that down pretty frequently. Could there be things that go out beyond Jan. 20? I can’t say for certain right now.” 

Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative packages cane take even longer to deliver as they represent new buys. Yet Singh said the Pentagon would look to at least get contracts for aid signed and done. 

“Those could go for longer, but again, those are commitments and contracts that this administration has signed. So we would expect those to be upheld,” she said. 

Watchdogs at the Government Accountability Office and DOD’s own Inspector General have voiced concerns about a lack of oversight for some Ukraine aid, but Singh brushed aside a question as to whether the rush to get the remaining aid committed could hurt oversight. 

“We are very confident in the processes and procedures and measures that we’ve put into place when it comes to getting aid to Ukraine,” she said. 

Singh did not disclose what kinds of weapons the Pentagon will look to send to Ukraine in the coming months, but air defense and aerial munitions are likely to be a continued focus. In September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged allies to provide more on that front, saying “the world has enough air defense systems to ensure that Russian terror does not have results, and I urge you to be more active in this war with us for the air defense.” 

Not long after, the U.S. announced it was sending Ukraine AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOW), a medium-range, air-to-ground, precision-guided glide bomb with a range of up to 70-plus miles. Previously, the Pentagon provided JDAM Extended Range guided bombs, Small Diameter Bombs, and HARM anti-radiation missiles. 

Whatever aid the Pentagon does deliver before the next administration, future packages for Ukraine remain uncertain. Vice President-elect JD Vance has vocally opposed sending more aid, and a faction of Republicans in the House and Senate oppose it as well, though Singh tried to argue the issue is a bipartisan one. 

“Republicans and Democrats have made commitments in votes and in money to Ukraine. So look, there’s an incoming team that that is going to have to work with Congress, and there is support in Congress to continue supporting Ukraine,” she said. 

To Boost Tech Innovation, NATO Follows Path Blazed by Air Force 

To Boost Tech Innovation, NATO Follows Path Blazed by Air Force 

Nov. 7, 2024 | By Shaun Waterman

NATO has taken a page from the Air Force’s innovation playbook, setting up a technology accelerator and a venture fund to nurture and financially support small companies working on cutting edge technology development in critical fields. 

“The U.S. has been really doing a lot of very important work … and many of the European countries, the U.K. and others, are really trying to learn from that and do that themselves,” Dame Fiona Murray, vice chair of the board of directors for the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF), said during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Nov. 7. 

In a later email to Air & Spaces Forces Magazine, Murray specifically cited the work done by the U.S. Air Force’s AFVentures team, as well as the National Security Strategic Investment Fund in the UK as the inspiration for NIF’s work.” Established in 2020, AFVentures makes small (under $2 million) initial awards in two stages to companies prototyping new technologies that the Air Force can use. 

The NATO fund, launched last year, has 1 billion euros, or just over $1.08 billion, contributed by the governments of 24 of the 32 NATO member states, said Murray, who is also professor of entrepreneurship and associate dean of innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management. The fund, which is structured as a standalone entity without formal links to NATO, will make investments by purchasing equity in early stage startups, just like private sector venture capitalists do, but with a couple of important differences, she explained.  

First, the fund was structured to make investments that would mature in about 15 years, as opposed to the 7-10 year timeline commercial VC funds tend to operate on. “That allows us to be, let me call it, impatiently patient,” Murray said, explaining that NIF wants to make sure businesses have time to mature, but they also want to deploy the technologies they were developing “as rapidly as possible.”  

Second, the fund trains and helps equip the startups it funds to protect their intellectual property from cyber theft. “We really pay attention to protecting our companies, to making sure that they protect the ideas that they’re developing from adversaries and that they are security minded right at the get go,” she said. 

Third, just like the Air Force innovation accelerator AFWERX, NIF offers its companies training, support, and mentorship to help navigate the complex and difficult process of bidding for and winning military contracts. “We support our portfolio companies in … making their way through the labyrinth of different institutional structures and mechanisms that can allow them to be successful,” she said.  

That process is especially complicated by the absence of a common framework or even language for technology assessment among the different member states, Murray added. “One of the things that would help us tremendously is if we could develop a better shared language,” she said. Reciprocity between NATO militaries would help speed the best ideas to the widest possible adoption.

“We need a way for saying, ‘OK, we have evidence that something worked,’” and for that to be acceptable in another country; or for a mechanism by which competition winners in one nation could get credit for that in another nation’s acquisition process. “That’s when we begin to really smooth the path for some of the best companies,” she said. 

Many of the companies getting NIF investments will have been originally developed and nurtured by the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, or DIANA, added Barabar McQuiston, chair of the DIANA governing board. Unlike NIF, DIANA is a formal NATO organization, covering all 32 NATO member-states, with hubs in Estonia, the U.K., and Canada. DIANA also works with a network of more than 20 affiliated accelerator sites and around 180 test centers in innovation clusters all over the alliance, she said. 

DIANA will gives grants and in-kind assistance to startups in nine technology areas (next-gen communication networks; AI; autonomy; quantum-enabled technologies; biotechnology and human enhancement; energy and propulsion; novel materials and manufacturing; and aerospace), and launched challenges in three of them last year, McQuiston said. Out of 1,300 proposals, 44 were selected for as the first cohort for phase one—winning the companies a six-month stint in a local accelerator to start work turning their ideas into businesses. Ten of those have progressed through a competition to phase two, test and experimentation, she said. 

Four of the phase two participants had taken part in a recent NATO exercise in Italy, McQuiston said.

“That’s important, because then we can really see how the technology is doing,” she said. The companies “can engage with the end user and … can really get a good feeling for what’s needed in the security market to meet the demands and the needs [of the warfighter], or even think of whole new solutions and capabilities that could be an advantage for us.” 

Five more challenges will be launched this year, and DIANA aims to get 75 companies on contract for the next phase one cohort, McQuiston said, adding that the aim of DIANA and NIF together is to create an ecosystem that can take an idea and develop it through early stage prototyping and development, all the way through military contracting to full-blown commercialization.

What Could the Air Force Look Like Under a New Trump Administration?

What Could the Air Force Look Like Under a New Trump Administration?

Nov. 7, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

What direction the Department of the Air Force will take in the second administration of President Donald Trump remains unclear, but observers expect a shift away from long-term, leap-ahead programs to “here and now” resourcing for readiness and platforms now in production like the F-35 and B-21. They also said a small bump in funding will not heal the Air Force’s long-term resourcing problems.

On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump and his team offered few details about its plans for the Air Force and Space Force. But analysts at several think tanks told Air & Space Forces Magazine they expect Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s “Operational Imperatives” blueprint for new hardware and programs meant for long-term conventional deterrence will be all but discarded.

Defense sources also said the Trump transition team is at this early point leaning toward Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as a possible Defense Secretary. Waltz served in the Army as a Green Beret and chairs the House Armed Services Readiness subcommittee. He has been especially critical of Kendall’s emphasis on long-term programs at the expense of readiness, telling Kendall during a hearing in April that he views that choice as a “strategic failing,” and that the Air Force is opting for “bespoke Ferraris” when it needs “a fleet of pickup trucks.”

Some elements of Kendall’s work may live on, said John Venable, senior resident fellow at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies—he specifically cited Collaborative Combat Aircraft, the loyal wingman drone program, and said he expects the Next-Generation Air Dominance program to go forward in some form.

Another analyst at a Washington think tank said “they may drop the [Operational Imperatives], but if they do, they’ll have to come up with something organized in a somewhat similar way to deal with China.”

Trump has voiced general wariness about the People’s Republic of China but has stopped short of pledging to help Taiwan if it is invaded by the Chinese. Officially, the U.S. has since the 1970s maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” about whether it will come to Tawain’s aid in the event of an invasion from the mainland.

“If you don’t have Taiwan as the rationale underlying your Indo-Pacific posture, that frees up a lot of resources for other things,” said one longtime strategy analyst. “But that would be a big departure from what [the previous Trump Administration] said when they were in.”

The 2018 National Defense Strategy, prepared during Trump’s previous term by then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, called for keeping ahead of Chinese technological advances and continuing to deter Russia. President Joe Biden’s administration continued that theme and pegged China as the U.S. military’s “pacing threat” while Russia was branded an “acute” adversary but less of a long-term concern.   

In an October paper about the strategic views of the two presidential candidates, Richard C. Bush and Ryan Hass from the Brookings Institute wrote that “Trump has consistently registered skepticism about the benefits of supporting Taiwan, whereas members of his administration during his first term were forward leaning in support for Taiwan.” They said he typically pursues a “transactional approach” with regard to defense partnerships.

“He regularly seeks sources of leverage for negotiations,” the Brookings analysts wrote. “He focuses on measurable factors such as the trade balance, a partner country’s level of defense spending, or inbound investment” from that country.

Given that the Air Force’s portfolio of new programs is directly aimed at deterring China, any shift in focus away from Taiwan could mean a less robust Air Force research, development, test and evaluation program.

Trump has also indicated that he would not sustain high levels of assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion and has previously threatened to either abandon NATO or sharply reduce American commitments and forces to the Alliance.

Venable, an Air Force combat veteran who previously worked as an analyst for the Heritage Foundation, said the proportion of the Air Force’s budget devoted to RDT&E is “way out of whack. And if they take $8 billion out of RDT&E, you can do a lot, and probably as much as you possibly could … to revitalize the procurement, the readiness, and the weapon system sustainment accounts required to actually bring a ready force back to bear.”

Various think tank sources said Congress will not back any Trump effort to either disengage from NATO or abandon Taiwan. However, one said Trump would “happily” supply partners like Taiwan with any U.S.-made weapon they want to buy, regardless of what response that would engender from Beijing.

The Trump campaign has officially disavowed “Project 2025,” a blueprint for overhauling government put together by conservative thinkers at Heritage, but much of the document was penned by members of his first administration. The defense section, written by former acting defense secretary Christopher Miller, called for a five percent increase in overall defense spending. It also pushed for a minimum of 60-80 F-35s a year and increasing the rate of B-21 bomber procurement as high as 18 per year. The actual pace of B-21 construction is classified, but is believed to be closer to seven a year, headed toward an inventory of “at least 100” airplanes, according to the Air Force.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin has said, however, that by the time USAF nears 100 B-21s, an improved technological approach may be ready to buy, and he has declined to push for going beyond 100 of the bombers.

Project 2025 also called for completing NGAD development, a more robust electronic warfare capability, and eliminating the “pass through” idiosyncrasy by which the Air Force’s actual budget is made to seem larger than it actually is by including in it Defense-wide special programs through an add-on account the Air Force does not control.

A boost of five percent wouldn’t go very far in fixing the Air Force’s problems, however, said Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

“Everything the current Air Force leadership is saying” about the threat need for modernization “was completely knowable, foreseeable and avoidable,” and the “modernization crunch…has been a long time coming,” she said.

“Now the ‘terrible 20s’ are here. It hits the Air Force fast and hard, right away … and there’s no way out of it without lots more money; not marginal, not a little bit above inflation either,” she said.

Readiness, she said, “is expensive and perishable. So you pour gobs of money into readiness, and you have nothing to show for it, unless you go to war. It’s important to do it, and it’s a worthy cause, but there’s just not” a lasting effect from sustained high levels of readiness, she said.

Conventional forces have to be modernized at the same time as the strategic forces, putting the Air Force in “a vise grip,” she added.

“We’ve never, as a country, taken risk in both our conventional and nuclear deterrents at the same time, and both are at a nadir,” she said. “That’s why this is a vise grip. It’s not just a problem. It’s a danger. If it’s not addressed, we’re taking risk in both strategic and conventional forces when both need to be modernized.”

Paying for a more robust Air Force will be a challenge, because it’s likely the Trump administration will endorse increases to troop pay. Combined with an overfull modernization to-do list and a desire for more here-and-now readiness, there’s little left to cut, Eaglen said, and munitions will likely wind up being the bill-payer.

“There’s nothing to squeeze but the weapons,” she said.

Many Republican members of Congress besides Waltz have criticized USAF’s emphasis on long-term deterrence at the expense of near-term readiness and have consistently blocked or pushed back on the Biden administration’s desire to retire older “legacy” systems and use the savings to fund new gear. Think-tankers agreed that the Trump administration—likely backed by a Republican Senate and House—will halt the retirements in order to keep more iron on the ramp.