National Garden of American Heroes to Honor Aviation, Aerospace Pioneers

Jan. 19, 2021 | By Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory

In the midst of nationwide protests and the tearing down of Confederate statues last year, President Donald J. Trump promised to build a “National Garden of American Heroes.” On Jan. 18, he revised his July executive order and listed out the luminaries he hopes to honor, among them aviation and aerospace pioneers including Benjamin O. Davis Jr., James H. “Jimmy” Doolittle, Neil Armstrong, John Glenn, and William “Billy” Mitchell—to name just a few.

The memorial garden is unfunded and would require the support of Congress, which has the power to quash the idea. The original vision named few aviation or space heroes, except for the Wright Brothers, Amelia Earhart, and schoolteacher-turned-astronaut Christa McAuliffe, who died in the Challenger disaster.

The revised list includes:

Davis, who commanded the Tuskegee Airmen during World War II and went on to become the Air Force’s first-ever Black general officer

Video: U.S. Military Academy on YouTube

Doolittle, an Army Air Forces lieutenant colonel who led the April 18, 1942 raid on Tokyo, which pioneered the concept of global strike and the idea that no target on Earth is safe from U.S. air power. Doolittle also is the namesake of the Air Force Association’s Doolittle Leadership Center headquarters building.

Video: AFA on YouTube

Col. Francis “Gabby” Gabreski, whose 28 mid-air victories during World War II made him the highest-scoring ace in Europe during the conflict, as Walter J. Boyne recounted for Air Force Magazine in 2005.

This edition of the “Air Force Report” features a story on Lt. Gen. Terry Gabreski’s visit to Osan Air Base, South Korea, to remember her father-in-law, Col. Francis Gabreski. Video: USAF

Mitchell, a World War I air commander and early advocate of strategic bombing, as well as the namesake of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies think tank.

Brig. Gen. William “Billy” Mitchell, assistant chief of the Air Service, U.S. Army, inspects Third Army aircraft at Weissenthurm, Germany, on Feb. 14, 1925. Photo: Army

In addition to these giants, Armstrong, the first man to set foot on the moon; Glenn, the first U.S. citizen to orbit the planet; Sally Ride, the first U.S. woman to go to space; and World War II veteran and U.S. Navy test pilot-turned-astronaut Alan Shepard, the first American to go to space—are now slated to join McAuliffe in the select fraternity of space greats honored within the park.

If the garden is built, it’s unclear where it might be located. That, too, would require approval from others. In his original July 3, 2020, executive order, Trump noted “the National Garden should be located on a site of natural beauty that enables visitors to enjoy nature, walk among the statues, and be inspired to learn about great figures of America’s history.”

30 Years After Desert Storm: Jan. 20

Jan. 19, 2021

In commemoration of the 30th Anniversary of Operation Desert Storm, Air Force Magazine is posting daily recollections from the six-week war, which expelled Iraq from occupied Kuwait.

Jan. 20:

The Defense Department announces the first Purple Heart of the Gulf War will be awarded to Navy Corpsman Clarence Conner, who was hit by shrapnel on Jan. 17 while on Marine patrol near the Kuwaiti border.

U.S. Navy Corpsman Clarence Conner received the first Purple Heart medal awarded to a service member serving in Operation Desert Storm while recovering at a Navy fleet hospital in eastern Saudi Arabia. **Photo: National Museum of Health and Medicine on Facebook**

USAF fighter-bombers attack Iraqi nuclear facilities, air defense complexes, and Scud missile launchers.
Iraqi television broadcasts pictures of Airmen—three U.S., two British, one Italian, and one Kuwaiti—who were captured after their airplanes were hit by Iraqi ground fire.

Find our complete chronology of the Gulf War, starting with Iraq’s July 1990 invasion of Kuwait and running through Iraq’s April 1991 acceptance of peace terms, here.

Feds Screen National Guardsmen for Insider Threats to Inauguration

Jan. 18, 2021 | By Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory

The FBI and the Army are screening all National Guard troops supporting the Jan. 20 presidential inauguration for signs of an insider threat to the proceedings, according to the National Guard Bureau.

“If there’s any indication that any of our Soldiers or Airmen are expressing things that are extremist views, it’s either handed over to law enforcement or dealt with the chain of command immediately,” NGB Chief Army Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson said in a Jan. 18 release.

Federal and city officials are preparing for potential violence that could disrupt President-elect Joe Biden’s swearing-in ceremony, following the Jan. 6 riot that killed five as lawmakers moved to certify the 2020 presidential election results.

The District of Columbia National Guard is training visiting troops to report anything inappropriate that “they see or hear … to their chain of command,” an Army spokesperson said in the release. All Soldiers already go through an annual Threat Awareness and Reporting Program as well.

“There is no place for extremism in the military and we will investigate each report individually and take appropriate action,” the spokesperson said in the release. “Any type of activity that involves violence, civil disobedience, or a breach of peace may be punishable under the Uniform Code of Military Justice or under state or federal law.”

Background checks for Guardsmen is part of a broader push in the Defense Department to curb white supremacy and other ideological extremism within the U.S. military. A senior defense official said during a Jan. 14 press briefing that the number of investigations into current and former service members with possible ties to extremist groups has grown, but did not say how many are underway.

Ahead of Inauguration Day, judge advocates from the D.C. National Guard and paralegals are ensuring Guardsmen are properly briefed on their mission and the guidelines for deploying in the nation’s capital.

According to Maj. Don Cravins Jr., a command judge advocate with the D.C. Guard, those briefings cover “rules of conduct, the use of force and de-escalation techniques,” D.C. law, and DOD regulations.

“We also go through real-life training scenarios and explain the rights and protections allotted to them as Soldiers and Airmen under Title 32 of the United States Code,” Cravins said in the release.

More than 21,500 Guard troops had arrived in D.C. as of the morning of Jan. 18, NGB wrote. At least 25,000 personnel are approved to offer “security, communication, and logistical” support to city and federal authorities until Jan. 20, though their services may be needed longer.

Between Jan. 12-15, 125 Air National Guard aircraft flew more than 130 sorties into Washington, hauling more than 7,000 troops and 2.3 million pounds of cargo from around the nation.

National Guardsmen—many of whom will be armed—plan to support federal and local law enforcement by protecting lawmakers and congressional staffers; securing Capitol grounds and property, as well as providing security elsewhere in the Washington area as needed; directing traffic; managing crowds; coordinating parking; and offering medical and logistical backup.

“Some Guardsmen who are supporting Operation Capitol Response will be sworn in as special police by civilian law enforcement agencies such as the U.S. Capitol Police, U.S. Park Police, and the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department,” the bureau said.

Footage published by the Nebraska National Guard’s Joint Force Headquarters shows troops from the state being sworn in while standing in the middle of a D.C. street.

Video: Staff Sgt. Herschel Talley/Joint Force Headquarters-Nebraska National Guard

The move to deputize Guard troops, first reported by Reuters on Jan. 14, is not unprecedented. Personnel from at least one Army National Guard unit were sworn in as members of the Metropolitan Police Department ahead of President Donald J. Trump’s inauguration in 2017.

Brian W. Everstine contributed to this story.

Second B-21 Under Construction as Bomber Moves Toward First Flight

Jan. 15, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Production of the second B-21 stealth bomber is underway at Northrop Grumman’s facility in Palmdale, Calif., while the first Raider is expected to roll out in early 2022 and fly in the middle of that year, according to Randall Walden, director of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office.

The Air Force predicted it could fly the secretive B-21 for the first time in December 2021. But in an exclusive interview with Air Force Magazine, Walden said that forecast was always a best-case scenario, and first flight in mid-2022 is now a “good bet.”

The first Raider hasn’t yet reached final assembly, he said, but is “really starting to look like a bomber.” The second plane, now moving down the production line, will allow the Air Force to vet the airframe, Walden said.

“The second one is really more about structures, and the overall structural capability,” he explained. “We’ll go in and bend it, we’ll test it to its limits, make sure that the design and the manufacturing and the production line make sense.”

Lt. Gen. James C. Dawkins, Jr., deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, said Jan. 14 that the B-21 will be available for service around 2026 or 2027.

The bomber leg of the nuclear triad is comprised of “B-52s and B-2s, and in another six or seven years, the B-21,” Dawkins said during a Heritage Foundation event on the nuclear-tipped Long-Range Standoff Weapon.

According to the Congressional Budget Office in 2018, the Air Force estimated the cost of developing and buying the first 100 aircraft at $80 billion in 2016 dollars.

Lessons learned from producing the first airplane are being applied to the second, Walden said. That’s due to workers figuring out “how to build the airplane,” which is more than just “how the drawing tells you to put it together.” Walden said, “Space is being created” on the line for more airplanes as the first two take shape.

“It’s looking pretty good,” he added. “We’re very pleased with the … very high percentages of efficiency” in building the second aircraft, “as compared to No. 1.”

First flight will only happen after elaborate coordination with Northrop Grumman, major suppliers, and the test community to ensure “that we are ready to go,” Walden said.

“Just like any aircraft program, there’s going to be surprises” during engine runs and other prep work that could affect first flight, he said. “We will correct those as it makes sense.”

Walden said the program is working with B-21 vendors to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the bomber’s schedule.

“The pandemic has slowed us in certain areas, but I think we have compensated,” he said. “I don’t think we’ve got significant delays to … first flight.”

“Suppliers across the country are actively delivering parts to Palmdale and we’re doing what we can to help in that regard,” Walden said. The program is closely working with the supply base to ensure slower parts deliveries don’t delay the airplanes at the same rate.

“It seems to be working quite well,” he added.

Walden also said the program is reducing risk by using a business-class jet as an avionics testbed. Avionics and subsystems are being debugged in the surrogate aircraft before being loaded into the actual bomber. Walden said it was analogous to Lockheed Martin’s Cooperative Avionics Testbed aircraft—nicknamed CATbird.

“We’re getting a lot of good feedback” from this effort, Walden said. The business jet is flying “real B-21 software.”

The hardware and software will be “put through its paces, both on the ground and in the air,” and these risk reduction efforts give the team “a lot of confidence” the jet will work. as designed once it’s powered up for first flight, Walden said.

“In the last few months, we did another successful end-to-end demonstration to further mature that hardware and software, and it’s working quite well,” Walden said. “We’re working not only in the flight test activities, but also working with the government test infrastructure to make sure that what we’re doing, from a system integration point of view, makes sense.”

“We’re preparing ourselves not just for first flight, but ultimately, the subsystem testing that will be required during those flight test phases,” he added.

As ranking member on the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) is one lawmaker tasked with oversight of the multibillion-dollar program that is among the Pentagon’s top acquisition priorities. In 2018, Wittman said the B-21 was experiencing thrust issues related to the bomber’s inlet and serpentine ducting.

Those issues have been fixed, Walden said.

“Overall, what Congressman Wittman did bring up was an example of one of those ‘surprises,’” Walden said. “We made that work.”

He declined to discuss the technical details of the problem, but said the fix “required some … basic changes to the design, of which we have a good understanding today through ground testing and engine testing.”

“It looks like we have solved it and we are moving forward with that final design,” Walden said.

Raytheon Technologies’s acquisition of engine maker Pratt & Whitney hasn’t caused hiccups for the B-21, and the change has been transparent, he noted.

Walden also reported that the beddown program is going well, saying a recent industry day at Ellsworth AFB, S.D., to discuss military construction and other support projects was a success.

The Air Force plans to spend about $300 million on military construction projects for the B-21 in fiscal 2022, Walden said, and $1 billion over five years. The service requested $2.8 billion for the plane’s research and development in fiscal 2021 alone.

Pentagon Shifts Israel to CENTCOM Responsibility

Jan. 15, 2021 | By Brian W. Everstine

The Pentagon has changed the combatant command responsible for operations involving Israel, from U.S. European Command to U.S. Central Command, following White House-brokered accords between the country and multiple Persian Gulf states.

The update to the Unified Command Plan came as the Trump administration finished its final week in office. President Donald J. Trump’s White House has touted the Abraham Accords—normalizing relations between Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates—as a major shift toward improved relations in the Middle East.

“The easing of tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors subsequent to the Abraham Accords has provided a strategic opportunity for the United States to align key partners against shared threats in the Middle East,” the Pentagon said. “Israel is a leading strategic partner for the United States, and this will open up additional opportunities for cooperation with our U.S. Central Command partners while maintaining strong cooperation between Israel and our European allies.”

The Pentagon did not say how the move will affect operations and planning, noting it is part of a biennial review of its command plan based on assessments of “all boundaries and relationships against the operational environment.”

The U.S. Air Force and Israeli Air Force regularly train together, including in the October 2020 exercise Enduring Lightning III—the third time the two nations have trained together with F-35s.

Changing the piece of the military that collaborates with Israel won praise from some defense watchers.

“I think moving Israel to CENTCOM makes sense from a U.S. policy perspective in that many Israeli issues are tied to the other countries in CENTCOM’s [area of responsibility],” retired Army Maj. Gen. Mike Jones, who served as CENTCOM chief of staff in 2011, told Military Times. It’s similar to DOD’s decision to add India to the combatant command overseeing Pacific operations, for example, he said.

In a statement, the Jewish Institute for the National Security of America said moving Israel to CENTCOM sends a “strong deterrent message of unity and continued U.S. commitment to regional leadership.”

“More concretely, it could smooth the way for the Pentagon to utilize Israel for more regional operations, most directly by updating the prepositioned U.S. stockpile there,” JINSA said.

Pence Honors Chuck Yeager’s ‘Great American Life’ at Memorial Service

Jan. 15, 2021 | By Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory

Vice President Mike Pence honored the life, career, and character of World War II ace and renowned Air Force test pilot Charles E. “Chuck” Yeager at a Jan. 15 memorial service in Yeager’s home state of West Virginia.

Video: The Media Center on YouTube

“What generations of our family have in common is that we’ve all been inspired by the life and the service and the heroism of Gen. Chuck Yeager,” Pence said of the retired brigadier general. The Vice President is the father of a Marine Corps fighter pilot and the father-in-law of a Navy fighter pilot.

“Yeager has been an inspiration to every American pilot, and will be throughout time. In fact, the crew of the cockpit of Air Force Two told me this morning before we took off from Andrews Air Force Base how deeply honored they were to have the privilege to carry Gen. Chuck Yeager on his last flight back home to West Virginia,” Pence said.

A pool report said Pence flew to West Virginia from Joint Base Andrews, Md., with Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin and Yeager’s widow, Victoria.

Yeager, who died in December at age 97, is known for being the first person to fly faster than the speed of sound in level flight. Pence also praised him as a dedicated husband and father.

“Chuck Yeager lived a great American life,” Pence said. “He raised a wonderful family, he served his country in uniform for more than 30 years, and he pushed the boundaries of what we understood as possible in his time. But it all started by the banks of the mud, barely an hour from where we stand today.”

Pence went on to recite the poem “High Flight” by John Gillespie Magee, Jr., a poet and pilot who flew with the Royal Canadian Air Force and died in 1941 in a midair crash at age 19, according to the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force.

Last month, the Vice President said during a ceremony at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., that the Trump administration would look into dedicating a military installation to Yeager.

“[President Donald J. Trump] directed me to begin immediately to identify future Space Force bases that can be renamed in the honor of the service and character and leadership of Gen. Chuck Yeager, and so we will do,” Pence said Dec. 9.

He did not mention base renaming at the memorial service.

Yeager’s memorial also included pre-recorded messages from Yeager’s friends and acquaintances.

Later in the service, Victoria Yeager shared highlights of their love story, from meeting during a hike, to visiting Afghanistan together in 2012, to his loyal attendance at her personal flying lessons back home.

Yeager, she said, challenged her perceptions of how much happiness one could actually find in marriage, noting that she “hadn’t seen it before.”

“Don’t let your children forget, your grandchildren, your great-grandchildren on down the line, who this man is, who he was, and all that he has done,” she said.

Aviano F-16s Practice ‘All-Domain Targeting’ Near Black Sea

Jan. 15, 2021 | By Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory

F-16 fighter jets from the 31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base, Italy, practiced combat cooperation with the Romanian Air Force while conducting “all-domain targeting operations” in a Jan. 14 bilateral exercise in the Black Sea region, according to a U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa release.

“In an era of global power competition and in line with the National Defense Strategy, this event demonstrated the U.S. ability to converge assets from all domains and across NATO allies into the Black Sea to generate firepower inside an area that an adversary believes to be protected through anti-access, area denial technology, while also improving readiness and being operationally unpredictable,” USAFE wrote.

The American F-16s practiced strategies for employing the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, with Romanian Air Force F-16s escorting them, the release stated. KC-135 Stratotankers from RAF Mildenhall, U.K., provided refueling support.

To bolster the exercise, the 31st Fighter Wing’s 606th Air Control Squadron also quickly deployed to Romania, where it integrated with its Romanian Control and Reporting Center to carry out “tactical command and control,” the release said. The 1st Combat Communications Squadron, which is based out of Ramstein Air Base, Germany’s 435th Air Ground Operations Wing, also deployed to back up the Romanian C2 hub, it added.

U.S. Special Operations Command Europe, U.S. Naval Forces Europe, U.S. Army Europe and Africa, and U.S. Strategic Command also took part in the exercise, USAFE wrote. SOCEUR contributed “conventional and Special Operations Forces integration, such as close air support and simulated targets of interest,” and the Navy sent in a P-8 Poseidon aircraft, it noted.

In the release, USAF Lt. Col. Alex Riseborough, air attaché at the U.S. Embassy Bucharest, praised the C2-centric deployments as “a U.S. first and a big step for our bilateral Air Force partnership with the Romanians.”

The U.S. is building its military presence in Romania with a new permanent base for MQ-9 Reaper drones and Airmen at Romanian Air Force Base 71 at Campia Turzii.

American forces have recently grown the military partnership with Romania in other ways as well: For example, U.S. and Romanian troops for the first time fired two M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems at Black Sea targets from Romania during an exercise in November, according to Military Times.

“Troops from the Army’s 1st Battalion, 77th Field Artillery Regiment, 41st Field Artillery Brigade deployed the HIMARS systems using an MC-130J Commando II with the U.S. Air Force’s 352nd Special Operations Wing and a C-130 Hercules with U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa,” the publication wrote. “Two launcher crews of six personnel departed Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Nov. 19 for Romania to complete the exercise before returning to Germany immediately afterwards.”

US Down to 5,000 Troops Across Afghanistan, Iraq

Jan. 15, 2021 | By Brian W. Everstine

U.S. military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq have dropped to 5,000 troops across both countries, with 2,500 personnel in each, meeting a Jan. 15 deadline from President Donald J. Trump to reduce the military’s footprint in the Middle East.

The withdrawal marks the lowest level of American troops in Afghanistan since 2001, and comes amid ongoing peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

“Today, the United States is closer than ever to ending nearly two decades of war and welcoming in an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace process to achieve a political settlement and a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire,” Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller said.

The Pentagon did not disclose the makeup of the remaining 2,500 forces, saying that “commanders have what they need to keep America, our people, and our interests safe” while continuing both counterterrorism and training missions. The Defense Department plans to further reduce the overall presence by May, but claims that future drawdowns remain dependent on conditions in the area.

The reduction appears to flout a provision in the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act that blocks DOD from spending money to shrink the number of troops in Afghanistan below 4,000 until Miller submits a report on the potential risks. The Pentagon did not say if that report was submitted, but the Associated Press reported Jan. 15 that Trump signed a waiver to bypass the legislation, “stipulating that the drawdown was important to U.S. national security interests.”

“Earlier in the week, Trump had not yet signed the waiver, meaning it came after the drawdown had been completed,” according to the AP.

In Iraq, the reduction “is reflective of the increased capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces,” Miller wrote. “We have long anticipated that the force level required to support Iraq’s fight against [the Islamic State group] would decrease as Iraq’s capability to manage the threat from ISIS improves.”

The remaining 2,500 U.S. and coalition forces will stay in Iraq “to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.”

New Nuclear Cruise Missile Ahead of Schedule for Next Development Phase

Jan. 15, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force’s new air-launched nuclear missile is on track to begin its next major development phase as soon as May—up to nine months earlier than expected, a senior Air Force nuclear officer said during a Heritage Foundation event Jan. 14.

The AGM-181 Long-Range Standoff Weapon could begin the engineering and manufacturing development phase this spring, after it completes the technology-maturation and risk-reduction phase and passes the hurdle known as Milestone B that it needs to start EMD, said Lt. Gen. James C. Dawkins Jr., deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration.

If the cruise missile’s warhead program stays on schedule and funding is consistent, the weapon should be ready for deployment around 2030. Inside Defense reported on the program’s acceleration in November.

The major benchmarks of the EMD phase are a critical design review and the production readiness review, which pave the way for a Milestone C decision to start full-rate production.

Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin received $900 million TMRR contracts in 2017 to develop competitive prototypes, but the Air Force surprised defense watchers when it picked Raytheon’s version ahead of schedule in April 2020. The contracts should have continued into 2022, but the Air Force said success in the program gave the service “high confidence” in choosing the Raytheon missile design.

At that time, the service said negotiations regarding the EMD contract would begin in early 2021 and that the program would likely hit Milestone B in mid-2022.

A spokeswoman for the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center said the service sped up the technology-maturation phase after dropping Lockheed’s proposal. Programs can move faster when the Air Force incorporates more advanced elements like flight testing into earlier design phases. LRSO’s first flight could come in 2022.

The AGM-181 will replace the AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile carried by the B-52 as part of the bomber leg of the nuclear triad. Much about the LRSO, which is extremely stealthy and is not a hypersonic weapon, remains highly classified.

LRSO’s 1,000 missiles are slated to cost about $11 billion to design and buy, and more than $6 billion to maintain, according to the Arms Control Association, which tracks nuclear weapons program costs. The Air Force’s fiscal 2021 budget request pegs the research and development effort at $4.5 billion.

Reaching the initial operations milestone on time depends on the National Nuclear Security Administration, which manages the W80-4 upgrade program under the Energy Department. Both LRSO and its first warhead are slated to begin production in the mid-2020s.

“We’ve got to stay really aligned with them,” Dawkins said. “Right now, we are.”

Dawkins warned that the current Air-Launched Cruise Missile could see unwelcome surprises as its parts suppliers vanish and its components age out over time. ALCM is 30 years past its planned retirement. He suggested the Air Force could start a life-extension program to keep ALCM viable until LRSO is ready if the replacement takes longer than expected.

“We rust our way into obsolescence” with ALCM “if we delay too long,” he said.

The Heritage program offered a discussion on the benefits of the LRSO, as many anticipate the incoming Biden administration and a Democratic Congress may reshape America’s nuclear modernization priorities in upcoming budgets.

Dawkins said he would welcome a new nuclear posture review from the Biden administration to reflect changes in foreign nuclear arsenals over the past few years. The Trump administration released its own NPR in early 2018.

Dawkins argues the missile upgrade serves as a stabilizing force on the world stage because owning a more capable system will dissuade other nuclear powers from using their weapons. The military contends modernization is necessary as Russia updates its own stockpile with new types of weapons.

Peter Huessy of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies noted that between 1991 and 2020, Russia deployed 21 new types of nuclear bombers, cruise missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and sea-launched ballistic missiles, while the U.S. did not roll out any new variants.

Frequent B-52 flights around the world haven’t strained America’s relationship with Russia and China, even though they could be carrying the current nuclear cruise missile. Cruise missile bombers like the B-52 complicate matters for a potential enemy because they can carry more than a dozen weapons at a time, Dawkins said.

While Dawkins believes the LRSO would make a poor first-strike option, he said it’s unlikely that a world power would react with nuclear weapons if it wasn’t sure whether an incoming missile was nuclear-tipped.

“Any leader would wait and make darn sure that they were being struck with a nuclear weapon [before retaliating], particularly if they have a survivable second-strike capability,” he said.

Editor’s note: This story was updated Jan. 15 at 5 p.m. to add information from the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center.