Study Shows Higher Rates of Some Cancers in ICBM Personnel

Study Shows Higher Rates of Some Cancers in ICBM Personnel

The Air Force found increased rates of breast and prostate cancers in service members who worked on nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles compared to the general population, according to a preliminary study of data publicly released on March 13.

“What we don’t know is whether these rates specifically for breast and prostate are due to increased screening or access to care or whether these are due to unique military exposures,” Col. Tory Woodard, a doctor and the head of U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM), said in remarks at a Feb. 23 town hall, according to Air Force Global Strike Command, which maintains the nation’s 400-plus land-based strategic missiles.

The Air Force is in the midst of a wide-ranging Missile Community Cancer Study, sparked by renewed concerns that surfaced in early 2023 of possible increased cases of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, a blood cancer, at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. The service previously dismissed those concerns in 2001 and 2005 reviews.

The newly analyzed data does not show increased rates of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the specific cancer that sparked the new study.

Missileers and other personnel working on decades-old Minuteman III missiles and older systems have long had health concerns related to their service, which often require them to work in underground bunkers for 24-48 hours at a time. Security personnel, maintainers, and other individuals also worked at ICBM sites.

Air Force officials cautioned that the information was preliminary and drawn from a limited dataset of around 2 million military personnel, with a focus on 84,000 “missile community members” who were around ICBM facilities, including 8,000 missileers. 

The data only includes Department of Defense electronic medical records from 2001-2021, capturing those who were diagnosed with cancer through the Military Health System (MHS), including through the Tricare health insurance program. Cases outside the Military Health System were not included in the analysis.

For the initial phase, the military was “unable to determine cancer cases diagnosed prior to 2001 or outside of the MHS/TRICARE,” Woodard wrote in a March 6 memo. The Air Force anticipates the initial data makes up fewer than 25 percent of the total cancer cases that make be captured during the study.

“What is important to understand is that the epidemiology study is still nascent but progressing to eventually deliver responsible data to draw conclusions from at the end of the study,” an AFGSC spokesperson said.

The results were presented during the town hall held by Air Force Global Strike Command boss Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere, along with medical experts from USAFSAM and AFGSC. USAFSAM is leading the Missile Community Cancer Study, which has been ongoing for the past year.

Capt. Isabella Muffoletto, U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine bioenvironmental engineer, labels different samples at L-01 missile alert facility, or MAF, near Stoneham, Colorado, July 13, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Joseph Coslett Jr.

Comparisons of cancer rates between the ICBM community and the general population are “difficult at this time due to incomplete case counts within this data set,” read a slide presented during the town hall.

Subsequent phases of the study promise to include data from the Veterans Administration’s cancer registry dating back to 1976, death certificates dating back to 1979, DOD cancer registry data dating back to 1986, and those diagnosed in the VA system dating back to 1991, along with data from state and other cancer registries.

That data is expected to come this summer, according to the Air Force. That review will also include data on personnel from bases that no longer have an active ICBM mission, the service says. The study team is also considering conducting a study of reproductive health in the missile community.

“We have five other data sets to study, and each additional data set will build our knowledge base and help to shape the larger picture,” Woodard said. “That picture will not be complete until we complete all phases of this Epidemiology Review.”

Breast and prostate cancers have long been a concern for service members in all fields and services, according to a 2023 study published in the American Cancer Society’s medical journal. The study’s authors analyzed cancer data for service members and found “higher rates of prostate and breast cancers, particularly in 40- to 59-year-olds” compared to the general population. However, the study authors did not say military service was the definitive cause of the cancers and “may result from greater cancer screening utilization or cumulative military exposures.”

Doctors from USAFSAM also led a study of Air Force pilots published in 2021 that found that “compared with the U.S. population, male fighter aviators were more likely to develop and die from melanoma skin cancer, prostate cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma.”

The Missile Community Cancer Study is also conducting environmental sampling of ICBM facilities. All three active ICBM bases—Malmstrom, F.E. Warren, and Minot air force bases, with Minuteman III fields spread out over Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nebraska—show “air, water, & soil samples below acceptable regulatory levels for any chemicals or hazards,” according to a slide presented at the town hall.

Toxic chemicals known as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) were found in some isolated places at those bases, but AFGSC says those facilities are in the process of being cleaned and made safe or have already reopened. The production of PCBs were banned in the United States in 1979, and Air Force officials said the removal process began in the 1980s. 

It is unclear how long and at what level the PCBs were present before the current mitigation efforts. The study team recently finished environmental sampling at Vandenberg Space Force Base, the Minuteman III test launch facility, but the Air Force says it has not yet received results.

“There remains a significant level of interest and engagement,” Bussiere said at the town hall. “I ask that you be persistent in highlighting areas that need to be highlighted to help us to get things right, but that you also be patient because there is still a lot to be done.”

Air Force Programs Boss: No Need to Decide on More than 100 B-21s for at Least a Decade

Air Force Programs Boss: No Need to Decide on More than 100 B-21s for at Least a Decade

While former generals, airpower experts, and even the head of U.S. Strategic Command have all endorsed the idea of the service buying more than 100 B-21 bombers, the Air Force deputy chief of staff for plans and programs suggested a formal decision on that front isn’t coming anytime soon.

“The decision point, with lead time accounted for, to go past 100 is not until the mid to late ’30s,” Lt. Gen. Richard G. Moore Jr. told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee on March 12. “So the commitment right now is to 100 aircraft. That takes us for procurement into the late ’30s. The decision whether or not to go past that may very well not be based on China, because it will be made at a time when we don’t foresee the security environment and we don’t need to.”

Lt. Gen. Richard G. Moore Jr., Air Force deputy chief of staff for plans and programs testifies before House Armed Services Committee March 12. Screenshot

For years now, the Air Force has planned on buying a minimum of 100 B-21s to replace its B-1 Lancers and B-2 Spirits. All the while, multiple heads of Air Force Global Strike Command and other observers have suggested the service really needs more of the stealth bombers to effectively counter the likes of China.

Most recently, STRATCOM boss Gen. Anthony J. Cotton told lawmakers Feb. 29 that the bomber’s low production rate was “the only thing that I wish we could do a little quicker.”

 “The fact that that is an incredible sixth-generation platform, all indications are that the weapons system is moving along at a great pace as far as delivery,” Cotton added. “The ability for production and the number of production, as a warfighter, obviously, I would love more.”

There is one B-21 currently in flight testing that the Air Force has acknowledged, and at least five aircraft in some stage of construction. At least five of the six B-21s will be dedicated to test activities, but after developmental and operational testing is complete, those aircraft will have their test instrumentation removed and be modified into operational bombers.

Getting from six to 100 aircraft by 2039 will require between six or seven bombers to be built per year.

The exact rate per year, however, is unclear—much about the B-21 program is shrouded in secrecy, and the Air Force has not disclosed the exact number of aircraft included in the five lots throughout the Low-Rate Initial Production phase, or how long that phase will last. The Congressional Research Service estimated in 2021 that there will be 21 aircraft across those five lots.

Manufacturer Northrop Grumman received its first LRIP contract after the B-21 had its first flight in November from Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif. That bomber has moved to Edwards Air Force Base for more flight testing.

Moore said it is premature for the Air Force to make a call on whether it needs to acquire more than 100 airframes at this juncture.

“This is not a decision that needs to be made now, but it is one that we need to continue to think about,” Moore noted. “Gen. Cotton has probably the best insight of anybody on this and certainly on active duty he has the most experience both in depth and breadth. So his counsel is well taken.”

While the B-21 ramps up, Chinese military officials disclosed in March 11 interview with a Chinese state-owned newspaper that the new Xi’an H-20 bomber could soon be revealed to the public. While details about the aircraft’s specifications and procurement numbers are scarce, reports have compared the Chinese bomber to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 and the incoming B-21.

Air Force Delays T-7 IOC Another Year, Slashes 2025 Production

Air Force Delays T-7 IOC Another Year, Slashes 2025 Production

The Air Force is poised to start buying production T-7A trainer jets in fiscal 2025, but at half the rate previously planned. Budget documents also revealed that the service is pushing back planned Initial Operational Capability (IOC) from 2027 to the second quarter of fiscal year 2028. IOC is generally when end users can start operating and maintaining new equipment. 

The Air Force first awarded Boeing a contract for the T-7 in 2018 and rolled it out with fanfare in 2022. Air Force and Boeing officials hailed it as as a pathfinder for digital design. But issues with wing rock, ejection seats, faulty parts that have slowed the aircraft’s progress.

The original IOC for the T-7, which is supposed to replace the Air Force’s deteriorating fleet of aging T-38s, was 2024. Technical issues have delayed different milestones several times now

In its fiscal 2024 budget proposal, the Air Force said its plan was to buy 14 jets in fiscal year 2025, on the way to a total buy of 351 jets. In its 2025 request, though, the service proposed buying seven jets in 2025, and a total buy of 346. The cut corresponds to a slight delay in the planned Milestone C decision for the program—which clears it to enter low-rate initial production—from the second quarter of 2025 to the third quarter.

Production is now slated to ramp up to 23 aircraft each in 2026 and 2027, followed by 36 apiece in 2028 and 2029.

The slight dip in total inventory corresponds with a slightly lower cost-per-aircraft. The fiscal 2024 estimate was $21.78 million per aircraft, while the fiscal 2025 estimate is $19.72 million per aircraft.

However, the delay in IOC is likely to slow Air Force efforts to address its pilot shortage, which has persisted for years.

Part of the problem, officials have said, is the aging T-38 fleet, which Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said is slowing the service’s pilot production pipeline.

“The problem is the pipeline to produce,” he said March 7 at the McAleese defense programs conference. “And the biggest impediment in that is the T-38, and its reliability.” The T-38 is old, its engines are getting hard to repair, and the Air Force is “waiting for the T-7 to come online and replace it.”

In August 2023, 19th Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Clark Quinn said more than 900 Airmen were stuck waiting to enter the pilot training pipeline. More than 200 had been waiting more than nine months for training cockpits to become available.

“The mission capable rates of the T-38 are not good,” Quinn said, noting that engine problems have forced the 19th Air Force to limit flying hours—and, in turn, prevented it from reaching its goal of producing 1,500 pilots per year.

The Air Force currently owns at least two prototype T-7s, one of which is undergoing developmental flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., while the other just wrapped up climate testing at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla.

Boeing and Air Force officials told reporters in September that another T-7 will join the first at Edwards, while a fourth and fifth were due later in 2023. A Boeing spokesperson confirmed that a third T-7 prototype was delivered at the end of 2023, and the fourth and fifth will be delivered “very soon.”

KC-46’s New Remote Vision System Likely Delayed Until 2026

KC-46’s New Remote Vision System Likely Delayed Until 2026

The KC-46’s improved Remote Vision System, dubbed RVS 2.0, is “likely” to be delayed into 2026, the Air Force’s top acquisition executive said March 12.

Air Force assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics Andrew P. Hunter also said the service is poised for progress on two other refueling tanker projects: the KC-135 replacement, previously called the bridge tanker or “KC-Y,” and the Next-Generation Aerial refueling System, or NGAS. 

On KC-46, Hunter cited “schedule pressure” and “the FAA airworthiness certification process” as factors weighing on the Boeing tanker.

Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) asked Hunter as he testified March 12 if the timeline for RVS 2.0 was still on track—the latest projection was to start fielding in October 2025.

Hunter hedged: “I cannot guarantee you that we would be in a position to field in ’25,” he said, referring to the revised delivery date set in the fall of 2022. “Maybe ’26. That is actually likely.” Hunter promised to get back to the lawmaker “with a more detailed timeline for where we see the state of play of fielding.” 

An Air Force spokeswoman declined to offer further detail and Boeing did not immediately reply to a request for comment. 

The KC-46’s Remote Vision System is necessary because in this tanker, the boom operator cannot look directly out the back, as in conventional tankers. Instead, the operator views the connection on a computer screen. But the original RVS was compromised in certain lighting situations, causing operators to bang the rigid, telescoping refueling probe into other aircraft while trying to connect. The black-and-white display washes out or blacks out in direct sunlight, and operators struggled with depth perception. The issue was particularly problematic for low-observable aircraft, such as the F-35 and F-22, because accidental damage from the probe could compromise the fighters’ radar-absorbing properties.  

Boeing and the Air Force struck a deal to fix the problem in 2020, and in December 2022 Boeing offered a sneak peak of RVS 2.0’s upgraded cameras and color display to reporters. But progress has been slower than expected, apparently, and while the Air Force and Boeing have “made a ton of progress” toward gaining FAA certification, there is still more work to do, Hunter said. 

RVS 2.0
In this two-dimensional representations of a three-dimensional immersive vision system optimized for dynamic range in operational environmental conditions, a KC-46 refuels a C-17. Image courtesy of Boeing.

Air Force and Boeing leaders have called RVS 2.0 a “quantum leap” forward in capability, including potential automation of the process, Hunter said. 

“I actually recently had the opportunity to fly on a KC-46 and observe how the crew operates, both in the flying of the aircraft and also with the boom operations,” he said. “And I think there is a substantial opportunity to leverage autonomy in both areas of the airplane. Interestingly enough, one of my takeaways was that the RVS 2.0 is a key enabler for potentially a greater degree of autonomy in the refueling operation itself and the boom operations because the greater clarity of the camera system will support a higher degree of high-fidelity automation in that process.” 

NGAS and KC-135 Recap 

The Air Force, meanwhile, continues to pursue two other refueling tanker programs. The KC-135 Recapitalization Program seeks to ensure “continuous tanker recapitalization” between the end of KC-46 procurement and the beginning of the next-generation NGAS program.

He said the Air Force’s request for information on an interim tanker program yielded responses from Boeing and Airbus, and the service is now crafting its acquisition strategy for those tankers. The Air Force asked for $13.7 million for this effort in fiscal 2025, when it anticipates issuing a request for proposals. Spending would ramp up to $188.6 million in 2026 and $243.7 million in 2027 under present plans. 

Exactly how many tankers that might buy is still unclear—“the total number of Tanker Recap aircraft procured will be influenced by the FY 2024 NGAS Analysis of Alternatives and dependent on NGAS’s first delivery,” budget documents state. 

The 2025 budget includes $7 million “to complete the AOA, do some of the early stage modeling and simulation work that will support the AOA and also stand up the future tanker program office,” Hunter said. That office “will manage both NGAS and the Tanker Recapitalization effort,” he added.  

Hunter declined to offer details on NGAS, besides acknowledging that stealth is one consideration for the aircraft. “I think it’s a huge element of the analysis of alternatives, to look at, what are the different technologies that can help us do refueling in a contested environment,” he said. “And what are the different ways to solve that very challenging operational problem? …. We’re leveraging the expertise of our force, we’re leveraging modeling and simulation to help us think through what might work to help us enable that.” 

Hunter also said NGAS will draw upon the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter program. “These programs are closely related, both in their concept—how they operate within the force design—and also, I’m going to be pleased to tell you, in the way that they’re functioning and the way that they’re working together,” Hunter said. 

NGAD, the planned sixth-generation fighter, will assuredly be stealthy. Hunter said NGAS will also draw upon the Air Force’s acquisition experience with NGAD. It will “leverage expertise from the agile development office to help them get started and take what I call the next-gen approach to our acquisition programs,” Hunter said. “We have large vendor pools, continuous competition, and iterations of capability that we can deploy in a relatively good timeframe.”  

Air Force Looks to Reusable Hypersonics as ARRW Ends and HACM Gears Up for Testing

Air Force Looks to Reusable Hypersonics as ARRW Ends and HACM Gears Up for Testing

The Air Force Research Laboratory is shifting its hypersonics efforts away from missiles and toward reusable platforms optimized for reconnaissance and strike, Lt. Gen. Dale White, USAF’s uniformed deputy to the service acquisition executive, told the House Armed Service Committee on March 12.

White also said the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), built by Lockheed Martin, will soon conclude testing with no follow-on production currently requested, and that the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM), to be built by Raytheon, will enter flight tests next year.

“The focus of the Air Force Research Laboratory Technology development efforts will shift to less-mature technologies that are needed to develop future reusable hypersonic platforms, which will provide multimission intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, as well as strike capabilities,” White said at a hearing on the Defense Department’s various hypersonic weapon efforts. Due to classification, the hearing adjourned to resume in a classified facility.

White gave no timetable for development of a reusable hypersonic platform, but AFRL officials have previously forecast that such technologies could be available for operational use in the early 2030s.

The AFRL is coming off a run of “many enduring contributions to the field of hypersonics,” with “significant successes with their recently-completed High-Speed Strike Weapon technology maturation program,” White said.

The HSSW “transitioned over 30 technologies to various DOD hypersonic programs ranging from advanced materials to propulsion technologies to vehicle designs,” White reported.

“Based on these successes, we look forward to the launch of [technology maturation] to further develop and transition technologies for next-generation hypersonic capabilities in fiscal year 2025.”

It wasn’t clear if White was referring to the HACM, but he said testing of the air-breathing HACM will take place in 2025.

“The Air Force awarded the HACM contract in September of 2022 and is developing the weapon using the middle-tier acquisition rapid prototyping authority,” White said. “We are working to mature HACM to critical design, along with other development activities to enable the flight test activities in fiscal year 2025.”

These efforts “to develop and field an operational hypersonic air-launched weapon will enable us to hold high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from standoff distances,” White said. “A hypersonic weapon, in concert with a wider weapons force mix, is key to providing a war-winning Air Force.”

The ARRW is “undergoing the final test of the all-up round with a planned test program completion by the end of second quarter fiscal year 2024,” White added.

Images of an all-up ARRW missile at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, were published last week by the Air Force, which said B-52 flight and ground crews were receiving “familiarization training” with the weapon there. Notices to Airmen and the positioning of test apparatus in the vicinity of the Kwajalein test area suggested that the final test flight of the ARRW in the Pacific was imminent.

“This test will launch a full prototype of the operational hypersonic missile and is focused on the ARRW’s end-to-end performance,” White told lawmakers.

The Air Force has been cagey about what it plans to do next with ARRW. Although service acquisition executive Andrew Hunter said definitively last year that ARRW would not be pursued into production after the test effort concludes, service officials briefing on the fiscal 2025 budget this week have said the Air Force will look at the results of the final test and then decide what to do.

“Future ARRW decisions are pending final analysis of all flight test data,” White said in the hearing.

“We do not have the ARRW in the ‘25 budget book,” he added. “However, we are continuing to analyze the test data that we have from that that capability.” He also said the Air Force is “pleased to report that the ARRW rapid prototyping program has been a categorical success to date,” despite mixed results from its flight test program, which resulted in several test failures. The most recent tests have been reported as successes.

Air Force budget documents indicate the service wants to invest $517 million in research, development, test, and evaluation for HACM in fiscal 2025, with planned investment of more than $1 billion through 2029. However, its funding profile declines every year through ’29, which is described as the development completion date.

An artist’s rendering of the HACM missile. Image courtesy of RTX

The HACM funding profile in the RDT&E accounts calls for:

  • 2025: $516.97 million
  • 2026: $448.55 million
  • 2027: $274.10 million
  • 2028: $200.83 million
  • 2029: $202.59 million

However, there is no money to procure HACM in Air Force budget documents, even though a typical program would already be laying in long-lead money for procurement. The Air Force spent $387.3 million on HACM in fiscal 2023 and requested $381.5 million for it in fiscal 2024.

The Air Force was not immediately able to comment on planned HACM procurement funding.

At Last: After 23 Years, F-35 Enters Full-Rate Production

At Last: After 23 Years, F-35 Enters Full-Rate Production

Nearly 23 years after Lockheed Martin won the contract for the Joint Strike Fighter, the F-35 has been cleared to enter full-rate production, the Pentagon announced March 12.

Although the designation is in some ways moot—the F-35 production enterprise is already operating at a rate close to its capacity—the designation means the Joint Program Office can now negotiate multiyear contracts for the fighter.

Pentagon acquisition executive William LaPlante signed an acquisition decision memorandum approving Milestone C, or full-rate production, after a March 7 meeting of the Defense Acquisition Board, which he chairs. He made the call “after considering the results” from F-35 operational test and evaluation, live-fire testing, the System Development and Demonstration exit criteria, applicable laws, and future production strategy, the Defense Department said in a press release.

Proceeding to full-rate “requires control of the manufacturing process, acceptable performance and reliability, and the establishment of adequate sustainment and support systems,” the release noted.

For the last four years, the full-rate decision was stymied by difficulty integrating the F-35 with the Joint Simulation Environment, a wargaming system that helps decision-makers find the right mix of platforms and weapons for given war scenarios. That hurdle was cleared in September 2023, the Pentagon said.

Lockheed executive vice president for aeronautics Greg Ulmer recently forecast that the F-35 program will have a stable production rate goal of about 156 aircraft per year for at least the next five years.

The F-35A has been operational with the Air Force since 2016. The service continues to pursue a planned fleet of 1,763 aircraft.

Negotiations between the JPO and Lockheed Martin for production Lots 18 and 19 have been underway since last fall; Lot 20 is expected to be the first contract under which multiyear status can play a role. Under a multiyear contract, contractors can be assured of a longer run of production and make economic order quantities of materiel, reducing their costs and the cost to the government.

In a press release, LaPlante called the milestone “a major achievement for the F-35 program,” highlighting for the military services, international partners, and FMS customers that “the F-35 is stable and agile, and that all statutory and regulatory requirements have been appropriately addressed.”

He called the fighter the “premiere system that drives interoperability with our allies and partners” while contributing to integrated deterrence and the precepts of the National Defense Strategy.

The F-35’s status means it’s now “well-positioned to efficiently produce and deliver,” LaPlante said. He praised the efforts of program director Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt and the Joint Program Office, saying the program has made “significant improvements over the last decade, and we will always be driven to continuously improve sustainability, interoperability and lethality” of the fighter. The program can now “focus on the future of the F-35, instead of the past.”

There are still some ongoing issues with the F-35, according to Raymond O’Toole, acting director of operational test and evaluation, which greenlighted the jet’s Milestone B.

“The program is working to address” some of those issues, which include a need for improved test infrastructure for developmental support, and to ensure “readiness to test of the upcoming Block 4 capabilities,” O’Toole said in the announcement release.

The F-35 program has delivered more than 990 aircraft to the U.S. military services, partners, and FMS customers, the Pentagon said.

Ironically, the full-rate announcement comes as F-35 deliveries are on hold pending testing of the Tech Refresh 3 hardware and software, on which the Block 4 upgrade depends. Lockheed is storing about 70 completed F-35s until that testing concludes—expected in mid-to-late summer—but production continues.  

To Help Explain Re-Optimization Changes, DAF Has Senior Leaders ‘Going Out’ to the Force

To Help Explain Re-Optimization Changes, DAF Has Senior Leaders ‘Going Out’ to the Force

The Department of the Air Force is undertaking its biggest overhaul since the Cold War, with new commands, ranks, units, and training.

Now, the Air Force and Space Force must sell the changes to nearly 700,000 Airmen and Guardians, the DAF’s top civilian in charge of personnel noted March 12.

“One of the biggest challenges is having our force understand why these changes are coming,” Alex Wagner, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs, said at an AFA Warfighters in Action Event.

Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall concluded in the fall of 2023 that the service was not sufficiently prepared to confront China’s rising military might and ordered a sweeping “re-optimization” unveiled in February at the AFA Warfare Symposium.

“The Secretary challenged all of us and said, ‘What do we need to do to put ourselves in a position to meet the growing threats and the competition, particularly from the People’s Republic of China?’ and talent plays an outsized role in that,” Wagner added.

A number of initiatives are underway. Air Education and Training Command will become Airmen Development Command, offering more modernized and holistic training. The services will be deployed in new ways, with the Air Force creating Air Task Forces and Combat Wings as “units of action” to replace the current, more ad-hoc model. Large-scale training exercises and no-notice readiness events are also in the offing. Then, there is the introduction of the much-ballyhooed warrant officer track for the cyber and IT career fields.

“I think, in general, people are skeptical of change but receptive to leadership,” Wagner said of how the service will explain the alterations to service members.

Top leaders have already visited bases to discuss the changes. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin’s stops have included Peterson Space Force Base, Colo., and he has also addressed students, faculty, and staff from the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I.

The newly installed Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, David Flosi, who took over on March 8, says he is prepared to move out to sell re-optimization to Airmen. Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman and Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force John F. Bentivegna are expected to conduct their own sales pitch.

“When you see the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, the Chief of Space Operations, and the Secretary of the Air Force all operating from exactly the same page, it says this isn’t an initiative that’s going to last one year or two, but it’s going to last throughout their terms,” Wagner said.

Frank Kendall, Secretary of the Air Force; Kristyn E. Jones, Performing the Duties of Under Secretary of the Air Force; Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations; Gen. David W. Allvin, Chief of Staff of the Air Force during a Reoptimizing for Great Power Competition: A Senior Leaders Discussion panel at the AFA Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colo. Feb. 12, 2024. Photo by Jud McCrehin/Staff

The Air Force has plastered QR codes with more information on re-optimization changes in prominent places and conducted a sustained campaign to promote the changes on its social media pages. Wagner said more outreach is planned.

“We always undervalue the degree to which we communicate,” Wagner said. “I want to ensure that the force understands the strategy, understands the threat, and understands why we’re taking the steps that we’re taking. Our two best messengers are, in the Air Force, the Chief of Staff for the Air Force and the Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force. In the Space Force, the Chief of Space Operations and Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force. They are in the process of going out and speaking to the force.”

Allvin has noted some of the changes may take his entire four-year tenure as Chief to materialize. Kendall has said he is confident the changes will live on even if he departs his position. Wagner said that the acceptance of the changes would also be a process.

“It’s not going to happen overnight,” Wagner said. “Because it’s complex, and change is going to be hard. But we’ve got a unified team focused not only on making these changes, but helping people understand what it means for them and their families.”

NORAD Boss: Chinese Aircraft Could Start Operating Near US This Year

NORAD Boss: Chinese Aircraft Could Start Operating Near US This Year

Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, the new head of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, warned lawmakers March 12 that Chinese warplanes could begin operating near the U.S. Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) as soon as this year.

“Fortunately, we haven’t seen Chinese aircraft operate near our air defense identification zones yet, but I think that that’s coming as early as this year,” Guillot told the House Armed Services Committee in his first congressional testimony since swearing in as NORAD and NORTHCOM commander in February. “That shows an overall concern I have about the growing capability of China not only with aircraft, but also with ships and even submarines being able to range further from China and closer to our shores.”

Air Defense Identification Zones are buffer regions that extend beyond territorial boundaries, covering airspace hundreds of miles from the coastline that nations use to track approaching aircraft. NORAD tracks aircraft using a network of satellites, ground-based and airborne radars, and fighter aircraft, and all aircraft entering or exiting U.S. airspace from abroad must be identified beforehand.

Russian fighters and bombers enter the U.S. ADIZ on a regular basis without entering U.S. or Canadian airspace. Occasionally, NORAD will scramble fighters to intercept those aircraft and escort them out of the ADIZ. In February, NORAD reported three instances of Russian aircraft operating in the Alaskan ADIZ.

Chinese aircraft entering the U.S. ADIZ, however, would mark an expansion of the People’s Liberation Army’s reach. In recent years, the PLA has entered the ADIZ around the island of Taiwan hundreds of times, sometimes sending dozens of planes in one day, in moves that observers warn could be probing Taiwanese defenses or lulling them into a sense of complacency.

U.S. and Chinese aircraft have dealt with each other in the Indo-Pacific—the Pentagon revealed in 2023 that Chinese aircraft conducted over 180 risky intercepts of U.S. planes in the past two years, surpassing the total incidents from the previous decade, heightening concerns about China’s unpredictable and increasingly provocative behavior.

At the same time, Chinese surveillance balloons have entered U.S. airspace five times in recent years, with the Pentagon missing several at the time they occurred before one traversed the entire continental U.S. in January 2023, eventually being shot down after a few days.

Guillot told lawmakers that NORAD has taken steps to better identifying objects like spy balloons that may have gone unnoticed in the past, closing the “domain awareness gap” highlighted by his predecessor, Gen. Glen D. VanHerck.

“First and foremost, my predecessor … directed the radar sensitivities to be adjusted, which would allow better detection of low radar cross section slow moving and high altitude objects,” Guillot said, adding that the system however introduces some clutter due to receiving more data.

“Second, when our operators see intermittent hits that in the past would be passed off to most usually weather or other phenomena that would cause an inconsistent hit, they’re now continuing to track those more carefully and more consistently to ensure that it is not a balloon or some other phenomena,” Guillot said.

“And third is better Domain Awareness between the other combatant commands. As we get JADC2 … the ability to share data from one combatant command to another, instead of stopping at a black line on a map that divides the regions, now we can seamlessly share that information electronically to increase our awareness further away from our shores.”

Still, Guillot said NORAD and NORTHCOM’s surveillance systems need further investment, calling over-the-horizon radar (OTHR) and the Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) his “top priorities.”

The Missile Defense Agency said in January a LRDR missile defense system in Alaska is mostly complete and will begin operations late this year. Both the U.S. and Canadian militaries have invested in OTHR, with the U.S. Air Force planning to build four OTHRs for NORAD and NORTHCOM. Guillot added that Alaska will have one OTHR. As the process is still in its early stages, he stressed that keeping the program on track is pivotal.

“That would give us capability against cruise missiles, traditional air tracks, as well as the hypersonics,” Guillot said. “Keeping that program on track is the number one priority of from NORTHCOM, because of that great capability that it would bring.”

Guillot added that hypersonic weapons pose a greater threat than Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) due to their ability to fly at lower altitudes and their maneuverability.

“Hypersonics are probably the most destabilizing weapon that we face now,” Guillot said. “They shorten detection time and the fact that they don’t follow a traditional ballistic track means they’re very unpredictable and the area of uncertainty is huge, based on their speed and their maneuverability. That’s what makes them such a challenge to not only detect, but to track and eventually defeat.”

Air Force Promotes Largest Number of Senior Master Sergeants Since 1991

Air Force Promotes Largest Number of Senior Master Sergeants Since 1991

Out of 15,151 eligible candidates, the Air Force selected 1,734 master sergeants for promotion to senior master sergeant this year, the highest total since 1991, when 2,208 master sergeants were selected for promotion, according to a spokesperson for the Air Force Personnel Center.

This year’s selection rate was 11.44 percent. The full 24E8 promotion list will be available on the Air Force Personnel Center public website on March 14 at 8 a.m. central time, AFPC wrote in a press release March 11. 

This year marks the latest in a five-year climb for senior master sergeant promotions, growing from 1,184 (7.62 percent) in 2020 to 1,629 (10.16 percent) in 2023. Airmen in other grades may not be so lucky: Air Force officials have warned of lower promotion rates for some noncommissioned officer ranks as the service tries to rebalance its NCO corps. 

Last year saw the smallest number of new staff sergeants (9,000) since 1992, and the lowest selection rate (17.4 percent) since 1997. Airmen also faced long odds when applying for the rank of tech sergeant, but the selection rate for master sergeant went up a small amount between 2022 and 2023. 

Senior Master Sergeant Promotion Statistics

YearSelectedEligiblePromotion Rate
20241,73415,15111.44%
20231,62916,03110.16%
20221,44317,4198.28%
20211,19417,1076.98%
20201,18415,5447.62%
20191,43413,31610.77%
20181,54913,05411.87%
20171,39111,78811.80%
20161,46711,90412.32%
20151,25714,3628.75%
201499914,8236.74%
20131,36712,83410.65%
20121,70212,35113.78%
20111,27412,37810.29%
20101,26913,7419.24%