Brown or Raymond? Milley Hints One Will Replace Him as ‘Next Chairman’ of Joint Chiefs

May 26, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff could well be an Airman or Guardian, hinted Gen. Mark A. Milley, the current CJCS, while speaking at the graduation ceremony for the U.S. Air Force Academy on May 26.

Milley pointed toward Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. and Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond as the obvious candidates.

“I want to thank the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—it’s going to be either Brown or Raymond. Take your pick, Space or Air Force,” Milley said in a half-joking tone after thanking Acting Air Force Secretary John P. Roth for his attendance.

Milley then playfully polled the crowd of graduates and family members in attendance, asking them to cheer if they wanted Brown, then Raymond. He proceeded to acknowledge others in attendance, including senior enlisted adviser to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Ramon “CZ” Colon-Lopez.

Milley began a four-year term as Chairman in October 2019 as the 10th member of the U.S. Army to hold the position. In contrast, Gen. Richard Myers was the last Airman to serve as CJCS, holding the job from 2001 to 2005. Since the founding of the Air Force as a separate branch in 1947, only four Airmen have ever ascended to the role.

The Space Force, founded in 2019, has never had a Chairman come from its ranks. In fact, Raymond is the first leader of the nascent service, which falls under the Department of the Air Force.

Getting Airmen into higher level joint roles was a top priority for the last Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Gen. David L. Goldfein.

The importance of joint cooperation between branches was a common theme in Milley’s commencement speech, as he noted early on that “the reason I am alive today, it is you.”

“The reason so many other United States Army infantry, Special Forces are alive today, it’s because we had pilots of enormous courage, who went through thick or thin, when we called in close air support, and we said, ‘Mark my boss, purple smoke, 200 meters due north,’ and you rolled in, and all we cared about was steel on target,” Milley said. “We didn’t care about the color of your uniform. We’re a joint force—one team, one fight, every day, all day, day and night, and the enemy should never forget it.”

Milley also stressed the importance of deterrence, noting increasing tensions with other global superpowers and the need to maintain “real capability” to ensure peace.

“We are now in the 76th year of the great power peace following World War II, and the structure is under stress. We can see it fraying at the edge. With history as our guide, we would be wise to lift our gaze from the never-ending urgency of the present and set the conditions for a future that prevents great power war. Right now, we’re in a great power competition with China and Russia. And we need to keep it at competition and avoid great power conflict.”

Central to preventing tensions from flaring into war, Milley said, will be Airmen and Guardians making “hard choices with imperfect information,” a similar message to one Brown has sounded.

With the growth of technology, “revolutionary change is going to occur” while this year’s graduates are still in service, Milley warned, and it will occur at such a pace that the next generation of USAF leadership will “likely have very little time to correct the mistakes that my generation has made.”

To that end, Milley urged the new graduates to be aggressive in trying to confront and solve future problems now, hoping to give the U.S. a competitive advantage in the future that will either deter or win wars.

“You, the members of the Air Force, the members of the Space Force, are going to be key to our nation’s deterrence. In addition to your innovation, your skill, your readiness, your competence, the real military capability that you’re going to develop, you’re also going to need something else. You’re going to need an incredible character in order to deter, and if deterrence fails, in order to win.”

Brown on Future Combat: ‘I Can’t Predict the Future, But I Can Shape It’

May 25, 2021 | By Tobias Naegele

The defense budget coming out May 28 will contain few big surprises. Plans to retire some older planes have already been reported, and the longer-range plans typically surfacing at budget time—known as the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP—are still being debated. But inklings of the service’s direction will be sprinkled throughout, all of them designed to maximize options going forward.

“I can’t predict the future,” said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. in a virtual conversation hosted by the Center for New American Security on May 25. “But I can help shape it.”

Shaping the future means ensuring U.S. forces can’t be stymied in the face of opposition or by failed programs that don’t deliver. “I want to make sure we have options that we’ve actually taken a look at,” Brown said. Streamlining today’s fighter aircraft inventory and investing in future fighter and bomber capabilities now will help set up those options in the future.

Experimenting with and fielding capabilities as they become available is also part of that plan. The USAF announced days earlier that it will begin fielding the first fruits of the Advanced Battle Management System this year, creating a pod that will fly on the KC-46 that will leverage the aerial refueler to help F-22s and F-35s communicate.

This is the concept behind JADC2, connecting “the right sensor to the right shooter,” Brown said. “It’s really about the movement of information and data to help drive decision advantage” and will ultimately involve sharing data and situational awareness across every domain—air, land, sea, and space. “We don’t do any one of these in isolation,” Brown said. “We’ve got to be able to work together,” so data must be shareable. “I don’t need to use every piece of data from every other service,” he added. “I want to make sure it’s available in case I need it, and vice versa. I want my data available and usable [by joint partners]. That’s where JADC2 comes together: when we have a shared understanding to sense, make sense, and then act and execute.”

The resulting “sensing grid” will provide multiple pathways for channeling information from platform to platform across the battle space, forming and reforming connections in the face of jamming and interference.

Training Airmen to operate under those conditions will be as critical to enabling JADC2 as developing new technology, Brown said.

“The Air Force just released our newest doctrine document, where we talk about, you know, centralized command, distributed control, and decentralization execution,” he said. “For our Airmen … to employ that new doctrine in mission-type orders, [they need] to understand that communication will be contested. And you will not have perfect information, and you’re going to have to be able to make decisions at a lower level. We’re not going all the way back up to the highest level of command to make those decisions.”

That’s a theme Brown has pounded on for his entire nine months as Chief, a theme that is closely tied to his bumper-sticker objective to “accelerate change or lose.” He applies it not just to warfare and new technology development, but also to the way systems are developed and acquired. The Air Force is going through a “cultural shift,” moving away from fully integrated hardware and software solutions in favor of acquiring hardware that might be able to do different things in the future as new software solutions emerge. Such an open architecture would be more flexible and allow for new capabilities to roll out over time, much as new apps and operating system enhancements are rolled out on phones and other devices.

“It is a different mindset,” he said. “It’s a different approach. And as we’ve worked with our industry partners, I’m seeing that we are moving in that direction. And we’ve got to continue moving in that direction.” Software development works that way, he acknowledged, but acquisition rules don’t, and that’s one of the challenges the services have to overcome.

New programs and innovations can help fuel that, from the Air Force’s software factories to collaborations with non-traditional and even traditional contractors. Airmen need to be willing to take chances, he said.

“You can’t be innovative and risk averse at the same time,” Brown added. “We’ve got to be able to take a little bit of risk, and some things are not going to work. But as long as we’re failing forward, that’s [what] we need to be, so we can accelerate change. So we don’t lose.”

Kendall Says Countering China is Why He’s Coming Back to Pentagon

May 25, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Frank Kendall, the Biden Administration’s nominee to be Air Force Secretary, said his concerns about China’s rapid modernization, and the desire to defend against it, are his principal motives for agreeing to return to work in the Defense Department.

“That is the reason, perhaps, that I’m interested in coming back into government…and hopefully to be confirmed, is to address that problem,” Kendall said in colloquy at his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing May 25.

Kendall also said he supports a fleet of at least 145 B-21 bombers, a continuing robust buy of the F-35, retaining the A-10 close air support jet and MQ-9 remotely-piloted aircraft fleet. He also views “command climate” as a key roadblock to stopping sexual assaults within the military, and will work to change it.

Kendall, whose last job in the Pentagon was as the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, said he became aware of China’s rapid military modernization “and how successful they had been” in 2010, and has been concerned about it ever since.

In his prepared statement, Kendall said China studied the U.S. victory in the 1991 Gulf War and has subsequently worked to emulate America’s capabilities, “with the clear goal to defeat the ability of the United Sates to project power near China.”

While he said “we have made progress” against the threat posed by China, and also Russia—which he said has emphasized modernization of both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons—“there is still much to be done.” He’s looking to organize, train and equip the Air Force and Space Force to better deter China and Russia, and if necessary, “fight and win, against all adversaries.”

Kendall effectively endorsed the last Administration’s National Defense Strategy, saying “there’s been a lot of additional attention on this in the last several years. The National Defense Strategy…takes us in that direction. And I think there’s general consensus, now, that China is the pacing threat” to the U.S.

In written answers to committee questions, Kendall said the Air Force’s responsibilities for two legs of the nuclear triad are “by far its most important” mission. He added the national command and control network to the triad, calling it the “quad” of deterrence.

Under questioning from Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Kendall said he believed the defense budget to be forwarded to Congress Friday will be “adequate,” but said he would “fight” for the necessary resources to modernize the Air Force and give it the capacity necessary for all its missions. Sullivan asked if Kendall thought a 3-5 percent increase in defense spending, as recommended by the commission on the national defense strategy, is appropriate.

“Rather than pick a number, I will commit…to fight for the budget that’s necessary to fulfill the National Defense Strategy, whatever that may be. And if it’s three percent, yes, if it’s five percent, ten percent, I will try to get the money that is needed by the Department of the Air Force if I’m confirmed, so the Air Force can support combatant commanders as they need to, to carry out that strategy,” Kendall said.

Kendall supported a figure of 145 B-21 bombers mentioned by former Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein at a posture hearing in 2020.

“I think that…is a reasonable number, at this point,” Kendall said, adding that “We’re a long way from achieving that, and requirements may change over time” but it’s a sound number to form the basis of the program and its management, he said.

The Air Force has been shifting its position on the number of B-21s from “at least 100” to 145 over the last two years, with Global Strike Command now quoting 220 as the “right-sized” bomber force, of which 75 would be upgraded B-52s.

Kendall called himself “a proponent” of the A-10, “because of my background” in the Army, saying it presents a “unique” capability for close air support, and is the aircraft ground commanders tend to ask for by name.

“There remain hard trades to be made,” he said, “and I think there’s a question of how [much] inventory can be maintained,” now that a number of the A-10s have been re-winged. “But they provide a unique capability and I would be reluctant to see them come out of the inventory entirely.”

Kendall endorsed the F-35, agreeing that it is the “cornerstone” of the Air Force’s fighter fleet.

“The F-35 is the best tactical aircraft of its type in the world, and it will be so for quite some time,” Kendall said. “It’s a complex, expensive weapon, unfortunately, but it is a dominant weapon when it goes up against earlier-generation aircraft.”

Kendall said he has not been briefed on the Air Force’s tactical aircraft study and can offer no insight on it yet, but said “We have to get to an affordable mix, that meets our needs, that is driven by the National Defense Strategy. That’s what should guide those investments.”

As for the F-35, Kendall said he has a “long history” with it.

“It has struggled, certainly, and since I left government, four years ago” the sustainment cost and delays with the Block 4 version have multiplied, Kendall said, citing press accounts.

But he seemed to endorse a robust continuing procurement of the F-35, telling Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) “the key to getting the cost down in an air fleet is getting the numbers up. There’s a very strong correlation between the size of the fleet and the cost to sustain that fleet. So if there’s one thing that would continue to drive costs down overall, it would be to continue to buy” the F-35.

While there’s some debate over what the final F-35 buy should be, “my own view is that we’re well short of that number, and what we should be working on is keeping the cost down and keeping procurement at a rate that makes sense.”

The MQ-9 has “served us incredibly well in Iraq and Afghanistan,” Kendall said in answering a question on the drone’s future, but it cannot persist in “a high-threat environment.” He said it would be worth “some investment” to give the MQ-9 fleet additional survivability capabilities and “look what we can do to sustain it” in the force.

“It would be a shame” to retire the MQ-9 fleet “after all that investment” that’s already been made in it, Kendall added.

Kendall said he will look closely at the “command climate” in the Air Force, saying that, in certain places, it may underlie many of the sexual assault problems in the service.

“My overall assessment, throughout my career, of command climate, is overwhelmingly positive,” Kendall told Sen. Kristin Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). “But there are exceptions. There are cases–and I think Ft. Hood has been a recent example, in the Army—where investigations have revealed that there are problems.”

“What I can commit to you is, if I am confirmed, I will take command climate and the culture that is created within the Air Force extremely seriously in this regard. I think it is, frankly, at the root of the problems that we have with sexual assault and sexual harassment, and if we can’t address that, we’re not going to be successful in prevention.”

Contract Red Air Jet Crashes at Nellis, Killing Pilot

May 25, 2021 | By Amy Hudson

Officials are still investigating the cause of the fatal Mirage F1 crash on the south side of Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, around 2:30 p.m. May 24. The Mirage was owned and operated by Florida-based Draken International, which has flown adversarial air against pilots training at Nellis since 2015.

The pilot’s name has not yet been released. No one else was on board at the time of the crash, according to a release.

“Draken has received news of a downed aircraft out of Nellis AFB and the tragic loss of one of our pilots,” the company said in a statement. “Our thoughts and prayers go out to the people and families affected by this event. We are doing everything in our power to assist them in this time of need, and we are working closely with federal, state, and local authorities. Draken US is also cooperating with investigating agencies to determine what led to this tragic accident.”

It’s not clear whether Draken’s fleet is now grounded. An Air Combat Command spokesperson told Air Force Magazine, “there’s no immediate operational impacts that we’re aware of,” and referred any addition questions to Draken. A company spokesperson said no additional information is available at this time.

Draken originally started flying so-called “Red Air” missions at Nellis in 2015, using L-159 Honey Badgers and A-4 Skyhawks. The company recently started introducing French-built Mirage F1s, acquired from the Spanish air force, and Atlas Cheetahs, acquired from South Africa. The first F1 adversary air flight was just over a year ago, when F1s challenged USAF F-15E Strike Eagles on March 18, 2020.

In June 2018, Draken won a $280 million contract, which runs through December 2023, to continue flying at Nellis. Draken contractors fly from 18 to 24 adversary air sorties a day at the base, “supporting the USAF Weapons School, operational test missions, Red Flag exercises, Formal Training Unit syllabus rides from Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, as well as combat readiness training out of Hill Air Force Base, Utah,” according to a 2018 release.

In addition, the company is under contract to provide adversary air in support of the F-15E FTU at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina, and the F-16 FTU at Kelly Field, Texas. The company also supports exercises at locations such as Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico; Edwards Air Force Base, California; Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona; MCAS Cherry Point, North Carolina; MCAS Miramar, California; and Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland

Draken aircraft currently are assigned to provide Red Air support for Air Mobility Command’s Mobility Guardian 2021 exercise in Michigan. They flew on May 24, but did not fly the day after the crash. Air Force Magazine is embedded with USAF forces during the exercise.

The company owns 22 F1s, 12 supersonic Cheetahs, nine Aermacchi MB-339s, 27 MiG-21s, 21 L-159s, 13 A-4s, five L-39s, and one T-33, a company official previously told Air Force Magazine.

The last time a contractor-owned and operated adversary aircraft crashed while supporting USAF operations was in February at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida. Two Airborne Tactical Advantage Company (ATAC) Mirage F1 pilots were treated for non-life threatening injuries at the time. In 2018, the Hawaii Air National Guard also temporarily suspended Exercise Sentry Aloha after an ATAC Hawker Hunter crashed in the waters a few miles off the coast. The pilot safely ejected and was rescued by a civilian sailboat.

Draken and ATAC were among three companies awarded contracts in July 2020 worth up to $433.6 million to provide 5,418 annual sorties of adversary air at five bases. Tactical Air Support also received a contract. The awards are part of a potential $6.4 billion Combat Air Force/Contracted Air Support indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity contract that could include up to 40,000 hours of adversary air at 12 fighters bases, plus 10,000 hours of close air support at nine bases.

The service has authorized a total of seven companies to bid on contracts, and Nellis is expected to be the next big award. In addition to Draken, ATAC, and Tactical Air Support, other companies include Top Aces Corp., Air USA, Blue Air Training, and Coastal Defense.

“The CAF/CAS contract remains in the base year execution phase, with requirement adaptations ongoing as anticipated,” an ACC spokesperson said. “However, any mishap of this magnitude always has an impact on the flying community. Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with the family, friends, and our partners at Draken during this time.”

Editor’s Note: This story was updated at 2:06 p.m. on May 26 with additional information from the Air Force. We also corrected an earlier version, which incorrectly stated when the last contract adversary air crash took place. It was February 2021 at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida.

Mobility Aircraft, Airmen Practice For New Ways of War

May 24, 2021 | By Brian W. Everstine

ALPENA COMBAT READINESS TRAINING CENTER, Michigan—Air Mobility Command wants to overhaul how it operates so it serves as more than the “bus drivers” for combat forces, and it’s practicing how to do that right now across the upper Midwest.

Exercise Mobility Guardian 2021 is underway at multiple locations in Michigan and Wisconsin, with about 1,800 personnel across all of AMC’s mission sets. This includes 18 mobility aircraft and 57 aircrews, contingency response Airmen, aeromedical evacuation Airmen, and others, plus combat aircraft support from A-10s and F-16s. The blue force is going against adversary aircraft, cyber teams, and ground opposition forces in a three-phase “war” bringing new tactics, operational structures, and technologies as they test out a potential new type of mobility air force.

“We’re looking 10 or 15 years in the future when, ‘OK, what are we going to need in that future fight?’” said Lt. Col. Brian Thomasson, MG21’s exercise director. “The U.S. military is really good, obviously, at the skills we’ve been practicing in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past few decades, but our potential adversaries have watched us operate. They know how we act … and so we need to make sure we’re ready for the future fight, whatever that could look like, and that we’re preparing new technologies, new ways of organizing our force, etc., so that we’re ready for that.”

This is the third Mobility Guardian, which first started in 2017 as the command looked to move away from the previous “mobility rodeo” competition toward a large-scale exercise in which mobility forces were the focal point instead of the supporting force. The 2019 event was much larger than the current iteration and included dozens of partner nations in an exercise that focused on the global mobility mission. The 2021 exercise is U.S.-only and is focused on future tactics and emerging technologies.

For about two weeks, ending May 27, the mobility and combat crews are operating from three separate locations—airlifters at Alpena; fighters at Volk Field, Wisconsin; and tankers at Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, Michigan—plus five other operating locations across the region.

The “war” is playing out over four phases, designed to practice key mobility mission areas along with tasking them in some roles not typically handled by airlifters and refuelers.

The groundwork for the exercise, dubbed “Phase 0,” started with contingency response Airmen arriving and evaluating the airfields for operations, offloading of equipment, and setting up the basic infrastructure at the “bare bases.” In Phase 1, mobility aircraft took off in radio silence, and fighter aircraft flew against threat emitters in the region. Mobility aircraft contributed to offensive operations by evolving two new capabilities, both of which came from the Air Force’s Advanced Battle Management System demonstrations and are continuing to evolve.

Airlifters carried an Army High Mobility Artillery Rocket System and used its capabilities onboard to retarget the system after rolling it off.
A C-17 carried palletized munitions in another step toward firing the systems from the back of the airlifter.

The second phase focused on sustainment operations, with aircraft flying “dynamic taskings,” including on-call airdrops and close air support. A special operations force infiltrated using an expeditionary airlift package. During this phase, the exercise simulated a mid-air collision of aircraft and a downed pilot, forcing tankers to stay on station and help coordinate with A-10s for a rescue operation.

The third phase included aircraft and Airmen at the different locations practicing “agile combat employment” tactics to continue operations. This included a C-130 carrying a fuel bladder and munitions to reload and refuel A-10s quickly. Another C-17 offloaded fuel from its wings into a truck, which then quickly refueled F-16s.

Throughout the operations, adversary cyber teams targeted communications systems. Exercise participants were forced to operate with unreliable connections to higher ups, with a major goal of Mobility Guardian to practice “mission-type orders.” This means an aircrew would have a commander’s intent of what to accomplish, but they would not have a typical air tasking order or regular communication with an air operations center for direction. Instead, they would have to make operational decisions on the fly.

“You may not be the person expected to make those decisions currently, but maybe in the future you might be, so we’re training those people under mission-type orders to take and leverage some of the authority that they’ve been given and then, with agile combat employment, they’re going to actually move their forces and maneuver their forces,” said Capt. Alexander Hutcheson, the lead air planner for the exercise.

As part of the push for more agility, the exercise built a different structure for its operating locations. Forces are under the umbrella of an air expeditionary wing overall, with individual exercise groups at the three main bases. There, forces are organized as “mission generation squadrons” with all the Air Force Specialty Codes needed for operations. For example, instead of individual squadrons for maintenance, intelligence, logistics, operations, etc., Airmen from those specialties are assigned together into one “MGS” to build and sustain aircraft ops.

“What we’re challenging for the next echelon of command below the wing level is for that squadron commander to present, in almost an autonomous capability: ‘Hey, if I need to move this capability around the theater, I can do that in a package type of way and still produce rapid global mobility,” said Col. Scott M. Wiederholt, commander of the 305th Air Mobility Wing at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey, who is serving as the commander of the exercise’s 443rd Air Expeditionary Wing.

Most of the Airmen involved in the exercise haven’t worked under the ACE construct or used some of the new technologies involved, which is why the exercise is designed so that failing is OK. Individual scenarios are run through multiple times, so if it doesn’t go well the first time, Airmen can iterate and fine-tune until it works.

After the exercise wraps later this month, AMC will work through the lessons learned to shape new training and eventually new guidance for how to operate.

“Airmen are going to leave this exercise with a deeper understanding of where we are going as a Mobility Air Force and some of the … critical thinking skills that we are asking Airmen to think about and challenge,” Wiederholt said. “’Why do I do this this way? Is there a better way for us to do that?’ This will energize those thought processes when they’re back in their home station and they’re going through their own evolutions of training and exercises.”

Kendall Facing Senate In Quest To Become Air Force Secretary

May 24, 2021 | By Amy Hudson

Frank Kendall III will testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 25 in a hearing that will likely lead to his confirmation and eventual swearing in as the 26th Secretary of the Air Force.

If confirmed, Kendall would succeed Barbara M. Barrett as the Secretary of a department that includes both the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force, where he would be responsible for organizing, training, and equipping some 697,000 Active, Guard, Reserve, and civilian Airmen and Guardians. John P. Roth has been the acting Secretary since Jan. 20, when President Joe Biden was sworn in as Commander in Chief.

Kendall, 71, was undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, a position Congress split into two jobs four years ago. Serving under the Obama administration, he oversaw research and engineering, sustainment, testing, contract administration, and logistics.

Now he hopes to bring that defense-wide experience to the Department of the Air Force. His confirmation hearing, coming just three days before the White House releases its fiscal 2022 budget request, will be marked by Senators’ probing questions about the Air Force’s commitment to major acquisition programs ranging from the F-35A stealth fighter to the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent—a replacement for the force’s 400 aging Minuteman III nuclear missiles. He will also be asked about Air Force plans to trade near-term fighter capacity for long-term modernization, which could have major implications for bases and manufacturers spread across the country.

If confirmed, Kendall will get the tough job of selling Congress on those plans while fighting for a bigger share of overall defense spending at a time when budgets are projected to be relatively flat but modernization needs are getting squeezed and peer adversaries such as Russia and China are ramping up their military investments.

Air Force Magazine reported on “pre-decisional” Air Force plans calling for retiring 421 older fighters from 2022 to 2026 while acquiring just 304 new ones, a net reduction of 117. That plan seeks to phase out the F-15C/D fleet, reduce the size of the F-16 fleet by 124 aircraft, and retain the A-10 attack jet until the 2030s while building up the F-15EX and F-35A fleets. By then, the plan suggests, it will be time to retire the F-22 fighter and introduce the Next-Generation Air Dominance platform.

Another area of questioning Kendall will face is nuclear modernization. The Air Force operates two of the three legs of the nation’s nuclear triad: nuclear-capable bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Democrats on Capitol Hill are pressing to “pause” the Ground Base Strategic Deterrent program rather than move forward with tens of billions in investment to replace the Minuteman III.

Questions will likewise focus on the nascent U.S. Space Force and what its requirements will be over the coming years. Space Force Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David D. Thompson told members of the House Armed Services subcommittee on strategic forces May 24 that the service has made significant progress creating a blueprint as it works to establish a “truly digital service.” In its second year, Thompson said, the Space Force is working on building partnerships with the Joint Force as well as with allies and partners.

Kendall’s acquisition experience will be put to the test as some lawmakers question the pace of space acquisition reform. “Progress in addressing longstanding acquisition issues has been disappointing so far,” said Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minnesota) during the Department of the Air Force posture hearing earlier this month. Similar questions are likely to come up during the confirmation hearing.

As acquisition chief in the Obama years, Kendall’s signature “Better Buying Power” initiative sought to streamline defense acquisition. That experience could be valuable in a service that is historically on the cutting edge of technology where existing acquisition processes often aren’t flexible enough for emerging solutions.

Former Air Force Undersecretary Matthew P. Donovan, now director of AFA’s Mitchell Institute Space Power Advantage Research Center, said Kendall will have his work cut out for him. If confirmed, Kendall will face “a familiar challenge of declining defense budgets at a critical time for the Department of the Air Force and its fledgling U.S. Space Force,” Donovan said. “He would need to strongly support all Airmen and Guardians, staunchly advocate for the crucial importance of air and space power in support of the joint warfighter and great power competition, and set clear visions for the future” of both the Air Force and Space Force.

Most USAF Fighter Mission Capable Rates Rise in Fiscal 2020, Led by F-35

May 24, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force’s fighter fleet, led by the F-35A, turned in a better overall mission capable rate in 2020, even with limitations imposed by the pandemic, than it did in 2019, according to figures provided to Air Force Magazine. The F-35’s MC rates soared, and rates even improved for the F-15C, which the Air Force is anxious to divest because of its age. The F-15E’s MC rate declined, however.

“Mission capable” rates describe the percentage of jets in the inventory that are ready and available to do at least one of their assigned missions over a period of time. “Full mission capable” is a measure of how many aircraft in a fleet are ready to do their full complement of missions over that period.

The F-35A’s mission capable rate leaped from 61.6 percent in fiscal ’19 to 76.07 percent in FY ’20, according to Air Force figures. The program was helped largely by additional funding toward spare parts, a greater percentage of the fleet being of a more recent and less problem-prone vintage, and a greater number of depots being opened, Joint Program Office director Lt. Gen. Eric Fick told the House Armed Services Committee in April.

“Many of our earlier-lot aircraft require modifications, and we are working through retrofits with fleet customers to optimize the timing of these modifications to minimize operational impacts,” Fick said. “Government and industry teams are working to accelerate an affordable long-term solution” to F-35 readiness “while maximizing near-term F-35 availability for training and operations. These changes are driving a steady increase in aircraft full-mission capable rates, and we anticipate fleet availability will continue to climb as F-35 maintenance systems and best practices mature,” he said in testimony.

At the McAleese and Associates defense conference in mid-May, Fick said the sustainment cost of the F-35 is an “existential threat” to the program and that the effort to reduce it is his highest priority.

AIR FORCE FIGHTERS’ MISSION CAPABLE RATES

Fighters	2019 Mission Capable Rate	2020 Mission Capable Rate
F-15C	70.05%	71.93%
F-15D	72.45%	70.52%
F-15E	71.29%	69.21%
F-16C	72.97%	73.90%
F-16D	70.37%	72.11%
F-22A	50.57%	51.98%
F-35A	61.6%	76.07%

Source: USAF

The F-15C and D fleets, which the USAF has described as urgently in need of replacement because they are flying beyond their planned service lives, turned in mixed results—MC rates of 71.93 percent and 70.52 percent, respectively. That was better than last year for the F-15C, when it achieved a 70.05 percent mission capable rate; and worse for the F-15D after achieving a 72.45 percent mission capable rate in fiscal 2019. The Air Force is buying the F-15EX to replace the F-15C/D, as the most expeditious way to replace capacity in its fighter fleet. The bulk of the F-15C/D fleet dates back to the 1980s and early 1990s.

The F-15E’s MC rate also fell, from 71.29 percent to 69.21 percent.

The F-16C and D fleets averaged MC rates of 73.90 percent and 72.11 percent, respectively; improving on the fiscal ’19 rates of 72.97 and 70.37 percent, respectively.

The F-22A scored only a slight improvement in fiscal 2020 over the previous year, with a rate of 51.98 percent versus 50.57 percent in FY’19. The Air Force recently signaled that it will begin phasing out the F-22 circa 2030 due to the small size of the fleet and its labor-intensive low observable systems.

The A-10, which is undergoing a re-winging program, scored an MC rate of 72.04 percent, a slight uptick from fiscal 2019’s 71.20 percent.

The Air Force was not immediately able to provide specifics as to why its MC rates had shifted.

Then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis directed the Air Force to reach an 80 percent MC rate on its F-15, F-16, and F-35 fleets by 2016, but the service did not achieve that goal, and has since assessed mission capability in broader terms pertaining to unit readiness.

Guard Prepares to Quit Capitol, 5 Months After January Riot

May 24, 2021 | By Amy Hudson

The National Guard’s mission in Washington, D.C., is coming to an end, the Pentagon announced.

“These Airmen and Soldiers protected not only the grounds, but the lawmakers working on those grounds, ensuring the people’s business could continue unabated,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement. “They lived out in very tangible ways the oath they took to support and defend the Constitution.”

More than 25,000 Guard members from all 54 states and territories deployed to the nation’s capital following the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, which left five people dead and delayed the counting of electoral votes, the final step to ratifying the 2020 presidential election. Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby said on May 24 there are still about 1,000 Guard members in the Capital but could not say how soon they would all go home.

Although the Pentagon has extended the deployment several times at the request of various agencies—the U.S. Park Police, U.S. Secret Service, Capitol Police, and Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Police—the number of troops deployed to the region has steadily declined. With no additional requests to extend, the dwindling number will gradually drop to zero.

House leaders released a $1.9 billion security supplemental earlier this month that would give the District of Columbia Air National Guard $200,000 to set up a quick-reaction force that would stand ready to respond to threats to Capitol Hill. The QRF was one of the recommendations made during a security review of the Capitol, led by retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, earlier this year.

But the Pentagon has no plan to put in place a quick reaction force right now, Kirby said, explaining that the Pentagon is still reviewing recommendations made by Honoré and his team.

“It’s been a trying but telling year for the National Guard,” Austin said. “Between natural disasters, civil unrest, and an ongoing pandemic, our Guardsmen and women have been tested time and time again. And each time, they have performed magnificently. So magnificently, in fact, that it would be all too easy to take their service— and that of their incredible families—for granted,” he continued. “We won’t do that, of course, because we know we will continue to call on them in times of need. As these troops depart for home and a much-deserved reunion with loved ones, I hope they do so knowing how much the nation appreciates their service and sacrifice—and that of their families and employers. I hope they know how very proud we are of them.”

F-16s Could Still be Flying Into the 2070s

May 23, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Based on Lockheed Martin’s backlog of F-16 orders, planned upgrades, and the recent revelation that the Air Force plans to depend on the fighter into the late 2030s, the F-16’s sunset years now could come in the 2070s, or later.

Lockheed Martin’s backlog of 128 F-16s—all for foreign military sales—won’t all be delivered until 2026, and the company anticipates more orders may be coming. With a potential service life of 40 years or more, those jets could be flying into the late 2060s or later. The type first entered service in the 1970s.

“There are 25 nations operating F-16s today,” said Col. Brian Pearson, Air Force Life Cycle Management Center lead for F-16 FMS, in a May 17 press release. Lockheed’s Greenville, S.C., F-16 manufacturing and upgrade facility, which will start turning out new F-16s in 2022, “helps us meet the global demand” for F-16 aircraft, he said. Lockheed moved its F-16 work from Fort Worth, Texas, in 2019 to make room there for expanded F-35 production.

Since the new line opened, AFLCMC’s security assistance and cooperation directorate “has seen an uptick of our partner nations requesting detailed information and requests for U.S. government sales,” said Col. Anthony Walker, senior materiel leader in the international division.

The 128 jets are for Bahrain, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Taiwan, and another country the company declined to name, although Croatia and the Philippines have been mentioned as customers. These aircraft will be in the Block 70/72 configuration, which includes new radar, displays, conformal fuel tanks, and other improvements over the Block 50/52 version, the most recent flown by USAF. Lockheed is building F-16s at a rate of about four per month at Greenville.

India is also considering buying an advanced F-16 version Lockheed has dubbed the “F-21,” which Lockheed touts as having a 12,000-hour service life; roughly 50 percent more than the ones the USAF flies. At normal utilization, 12,000 hours is about 32 years of service. India would produce those jets indigenously. India is looking to buy 114 fighters, and Lockheed is partnered with Tata to build the jets if it wins the competition.

Gregory M. Ulmer, Lockheed’s vice president for aeronautics, told reporters in February the company sees a potential for 300 additional F-16 sales not yet on the books, some of which will be to “repeat” customers.

The increased foreign interest may be related to the USAF’s hints over the last two years that it will continue to fly the F-16 beyond previous plans, thus reassuring customers that the parts and support pipeline for a large number of aircraft will persist.

Those hints turned more concrete in recent days. Talking points drawn up for USAF Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. about the service’s future fighter force plans, obtained by Air Force Magazine, indicate the Air Force expects that “600+ late-block F-16s will provide affordable capacity for the next 15+ years,” in both competitive and permissive combat environments. These aircraft will in fact be the USAF’s “capacity force,” the documents say, and will serve as a “rheostat,” meaning their total number can be adjusted up or down depending on the success of the F-35 program and a separate F-16 replacement now known as the Multi-Role-X.

The Air Force considers “competitive” to mean airspace that is reasonably well defended by aircraft and surface-to-air systems. “Highly competitive” and “denied” airspace would only be penetrable by fifth-gen and sixth-gen aircraft with extremely low observable qualities.

Although the fiscal year 2022 budget request, to be released May 28, will reveal some details of the Air Force’s new force structure plans, Brown said at the recent McAleese and Associates defense conference that the meat of the plan will be spelled out in the fiscal ’23 budget.

In the near-term, the USAF plans the divestiture of all the F-16 “pre-blocks” of aircraft, meaning all those that remain in its inventory of the Block 15-25-30 versions.

Lockheed received an indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract in January worth up to $64.3 billion for production of new F-16s for FMS customers, as well as upgrades of 405 jets in foreign hands to the F-16V configuration, which is similar to the F-21 model proposed to India. These modifications will include “new radar and other upgrades to make them similar to the aircraft that will come off the production line,” AFLCMC’s release said.

The large omnibus contract creates a baseline F-16 configuration for all future production, with the Air Force acting as the agent for FMS customers. Each country will sign a separate contract for unique or custom equipment they want on their particular jets. An Air Force official said the arrangement “simplifies and accelerates” the FMS process for countries wanting to buy the F-16, “so we can get it into their hands faster than has been the case in recent years.” The approach is needed because of the increased expected demand for the airplane, he said. It also reduces the cost of the jet by allowing vendors to make larger, more economic quantities of parts and structural components. The work will also integrate the Joint Mission Planning System/Mission Planning Environment software update.

The contract specifically mentioned work for Bahrain, Bulgaria, Chile, Columbia, Croatia, Egypt, Greece, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Morocco, Korea, Oman, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovenia, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

Japan flies an F-16 variant, called the F-2, but it performs all work on that type.

More than 4,550 F-16s have been delivered to the U.S. and allied countries since the 1970s. The late Michele A. Evans, Ulmer’s predecessor as Lockheed VP for aeronautics, said in September 2020, the company sees a possibility “of getting up to 5,000” F-16s built. She also said the company views the F-16 as an entrée to its F-35, for countries that are not yet ready to adopt the fifth-generation fighter, but may wish to later.

Brig. Gen. Dale R. White, the USAF’s program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft, called the F-16 an “enduring, highly capable compact fighter that will have a large role in many partner nations’ security for years to come.”