LUCKY Strike: The F-15E That Downed a Helo With a Bomb Just Hit 15,000 Flight Hours

July 10, 2024 | By David Roza

One year, eight months, two weeks, two days, 16 hours. That is how much time F-15E tail number #89-0487 has spent in flight since it first entered service in 1989. The 35-year-old fighter jet logged its 15,000th flight hour in May during a combat sortie while deployed to the Middle East, according to a press release published July 9.

The milestone is largely a tribute to the maintainers who shepherded the aircraft nearly twice the length of its original service life of about 8,000 flight hours.

“Lots of maintenance, long hours, and many upgrades are needed to ensure jets are ready at a moment’s notice,” one anonymous maintainer said in the release. “Literal blood, sweat and tears went into achieving this milestone.”

A spokesperson for Air Force Life Cycle Management Center confirmed for Air & Space Forces Magazine that tail number #89-0487, also known as “LUCKY” has more flight hours than any of the other 217 Strike Eagles in service. As one Airman cited in the press release said, the milestone “is unheard of.”

“All of the crew chiefs, both past and present, paved the way for the standard needed to maintain this jet,” the Airman said. “There are people all over the world who know her story and constantly ask me about how it’s doing.”

f-15e — A U.S. Air Force 335th Expeditionary Fighter Generation Squadron crew chief places a “15,000” sticker on an F-15E Strike Eagle, at an undisclosed location in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, May 17, 2024. (U.S. Air Force photo)

LUCKY’s achievement comes 12 years after it became the first F-15 of any type to break 10,000 hours, according to a 2012 press release. At the time, the jet was flying a packed schedule of combat sorties out of Bagram airfield, Afghanistan.

“When we got here, it was at 8,800 hours,” Staff Sgt. Ryan Forsse, a crew chief assigned to #487, said at the time. “We put 1,200 hours on it in the past three months. During that time, this aircraft dropped 15 percent of all bombs deployed in our fleet.”

But LUCKY’s habit of trailblazing goes back even further to 1991 when, during Operation Desert Storm, #487 became the first Strike Eagle to record an air-to-air combat kill after Capts. Tim Bennett and Dan Bakke dropped a laser-guided bomb on an Iraqi Mi-24 helicopter. The crew thought the helicopter was on the ground when they released the weapon, but it had actually reached about 800 to 1,000 feet by the time it impacted, Bakke and Bennett said in the book “Strike Eagle: Flying the F-15E in the Gulf War.”

“If you’ve ever seen a James Bond movie where the helicopter—the model they film—just vaporizes and disappears, that is exactly what happened,” Bakke recalled.

LUCKY, also known as ‘America’s Jet,’ seems to have a knack for being a fighter jet, the lead production superintendent for the 380th Expeditionary Aircraft Maintenance squadron said in 2016, after the jet surpassed 12,000 flying hours.

“All of our aircraft have different temperaments, so to speak, but America’s Jet consistently outperforms all of our other jets,” the superintendent said. “That’s why we call her America’s Jet; because she is full of grit and fortitude, the embodiment of the American spirit, and has demonstrated this in every major conflict since Desert Storm.”

The rest of the F-15E fleet likely isn’t too far behind LUCKY: in July 2023, 53 Strike Eagles had achieved the 10,000 flight hour mark, according to the 48th Fighter Wing based at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, United Kingdom. The past year has been a busy one for the Strike fleet, which has deployed multiple times in response to growing tensions in the Middle East.

In April, F-15Es from the Lakenheath-based 494th Fighter Squadron and the Seymour Johnson-based 335th Fighter Squadron shot down more than 70 Iranian drones before they could reach targets in Israel. President Joe Biden spoke with members of the F-15 squadrons to “commend them for their exceptional airmanship and skill in defending Israel from an unprecedented aerial attack by Iran,” the White House said at the time.

Though it was not immediately clear if LUCKY took part in that mission, the jet may have many flight hours ahead to achieve more historic firsts. In May, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), a key member of the House Armed Services Committee, proposed blocking the Air Force’s plan to retire any Strike Eagles in the foreseeable future. The Air Force had asked to retire 26 jets next year as the start of a gradual draw down.

In the meantime, the Air Force hopes to gradually replace the older F-15C model with the new F-15EX variant, but the exact size of the future EX fleet remains unclear. Until then, the F-15E likely will continue serving as the Air Force’s heavyweight multirole air-to-air and air-to-ground fighter of choice. While pilots will fly the jet, maintainers will keep it ready to fly. After all, LUCKY may have spent nearly two years in flight, but most of its 33 years were on the ground being prepared for the next sortie.

“LUCKY has been an honor to crew,” said the anonymous maintenance Airman.

Senators Want to Add New F-15EXs, Missiles, Spare Parts to Air Force Budget

July 9, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Senate Armed Services Committee filed its markup of the 2025 National Defense Authorization bill July 8, detailing for the first time how they would spend some $25 billion above and beyond past budget caps.

Among their extra wishes: six F-15EX fighter jets, on top of the service’s request for 18, at a cost of $690 million. The extra fighters were included in the National Guard Bureau’s unfunded priorities list.

The committee markup is still far from law. The measure must first pass the full Senate and then be reconciled with the House version. And even if the extra funds are authorized, it will take a separate appropriations bill is to actually fund the budget.

Still, the bill and the suggested funding levels demonstrate a bipartisan commitment to increased defense spending. The plus-ups include several items from the unfunded priority lists submitted by the services and combatant commands, as well as ideas of their own, some of which counter the stated preferences of service leaders.

Included from the Air Force unfunded priority list are nearly $753 million for spare parts (only about half the amount the service identified) and $153 million for “readiness spares packages, aviation support equipment, and munitions support equipment” that the Air Force wants to field nine “mission generation force elements”—essentially adding 208 combat-coded aircraft back into the Primary Mission Aircraft Inventory.

Other unfunded priorities the Senate committee would fund are:

$105 million for 35 more Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASMs) and $94 million for 34 Joint Strike Missiles, both requested by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

$89.5 million for Pacific Air Forces to conduct “campaigning,” also requested by INDOPACOM

$266 million for a biennial Agile Combat Employment exercise, also conducted by PACAF

$88 million in technology and artificial intelligence initiatives for U.S. Central Command

Artist’s concept of four AGM-158C-3 Long-Range Anti-Surface Missiles launched in a volley during a Navy test.

The committee had its own priorities too. After announcing in June that it would move to block F-15E and F-22 retirements, the panel would provide funds to keep those fleets flying rather than allow them to be divested. The Air Force was blocked from retiring the aircraft, and would need those funds in order to avoid diverting funding from other programs.

The bill would add $419 million in procurement, operations and maintenance, and personnel funds to keep flying the 32 F-22s the Air Force wants to retire, and $300 million to keep 26 F-15Es flying.

The bill would fund six new HH-60W combat rescue helicopters, overruling Air Force plans to curtail production, and buy two new LC-130J ski-planes. It would also fund the purchase of 260 AGM-158 JASSM Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missiles.

The Senate measure provides an unexplained $201.5 million increase for the B-21 bomber program, and $400 million to accelerate acquisition for the E-7 Wedgetail.

But it wasn’t all plus-ups and joy for the Air Force. The Senate committee also approved a $240 million cut to the Air Force’s Survivable Airborne Operations Center, a $318.7 million to C-40 funding, and a $403 million reduction in funds for the troubled VC-25B “Air Force One” program.

NATO Announces More Air Defense for Ukraine, Update on F-16s Coming at Summit

July 9, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

As this year’s NATO summit kicked off in Washington, D.C., on July 9, President Joe Biden announced a coalition of allied countries will donate more air defense systems to Ukraine to fend off Russian attacks—and officials previewed an update on the long-awaited F-16s that several nations are poised to deliver to Kyiv.

“The United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Italy will provide Ukraine with equipment for five additional strategic air defense systems in the coming months,” Biden said during an evening address. “The United States and our partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of additional tactical air defense systems.”

Specifically the White House said the U.S., Germany, and Romania would donate Patriot batteries, the Netherlands would donate Patriot components, and Italy would donate a SAMP-T system. Still more weapons, including NASAMS, HAWKs, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard systems, will follow “in the coming months,” according to a release.

It is the first of several announcements expected at the summit, which coincides with NATO’s 75th anniversary.

“In the coming days, NATO will announce robust new measures of support,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. “We’ll make announcements outlining how we plan to strengthen critical Ukrainian air defense capabilities, and build Ukraine’s airpower through the provision of F-16.”

The updates may cover details about the timeline and the number of F-16 deliveries. Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway have all pledged to donate fighters, and Ukraine is poised to get its first ones within the next couple of months from Denmark and Netherlands, but the exact timing and the fighter count remain unclear. Former Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said that following the initial deliveries by Denmark and Netherlands this summer, a continuous supply of F-16s could be expected thereafter. Belgium’s F-16s are expected to arrive by the end of this year.

The multirole jets will be pivotal in striking a wide range of strategic targets, delivering firepower to disrupt Russian ground forces and support Ukrainian army advances. However, experts stressed that the effectiveness of the fighter fleet hinges on factors such as jet availability, pilot numbers, training and experience levels, weapon stock, maintenance proficiency, and other considerations.

If all the pledged F-16s arrive, Ukraine could ultimately have a fleet of 95 jets in the coming years. But the delivery schedule is contingent on some of the NATO nations’ getting F-35 fighters to replace their F-16s, and the training progress of Ukrainian pilots and maintainers.

The U.S. is training 12 Ukrainian pilots by the end of fiscal 2024, with additional pilot training by a European coalition occurring in Denmark and Romania. Experts are urging Ukraine to integrate ground defense, surveillance, electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and NATO intelligence into a comprehensive strategy among airpower, which demands careful planning and timely delivery of the resources.

Besides the F-16s, NATO leaders also spoke July 9 of the alliance’s role amid increasing global threats, provoked by Russia but now amplified by a number of non-member states. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s second longest-serving and outgoing Secretary General, emphasized collaboration in defense procurement, highlighting pooling resources and expertise to bolster security and promote deeper integration.

“We have some good examples of how NATO allies are working together in signing contracts, developing capabilities in different ways,” said Stoltenberg. “The F-35 fighter jets are manufactured in United States, of course, but also in Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Italy, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. So it’s actually something we do very much together as allies. Saab Gripen, the Gripen plane is, of course, Swedish ingenuity, but there’s also American components in that plane.”

Stoltenberg also condemned Russia for its “heinous attacks” on Ukraine. In the coming days, he is expected to appoint a new NATO senior representative in Kyiv to enhance Ukraine’s institutional ties with the alliance and coordinate NATO’s engagement with Ukrainian officials.

“At the summit, we’ll make decisions to further strengthen our support to Ukraine, and Russia must understand that they are not able to wait those out,” said Stoltenberg. “They need to sit down and accept a solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation.”

During the remaining two days of the summit, NATO will announce the establishment of a new military command in Germany, led by a three-star general. This command will initiate a training, equipping, and force development program for Ukrainian troops. Officials also said the allies will pledge to collectively provide Ukraine with approximately 40 billion euros ($43 billion) worth of security assistance in the coming year.

By the end of the summit later this week, President Joe Biden will convene over 20 world leaders who have signed bilateral agreements with Kyiv to launch the “Ukraine Compact”—an initiative uniting allies to affirm their support for Ukraine moving forward. Washington signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy last month.

Former Senate Armed Services Chair James Inhofe Dies at 89

July 9, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Former Senator James M. Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican who chaired the Senate Armed Services Committee near the end of his 57 years in politics, died July 9 as a result of a stroke he suffered July 4. He was 89.

Inhofe pushed for higher-than-requested defense budgets throughout the Obama and Trump administrations, and backed programs intended to counter a growing and more capable Chinese military. He authored a number of articles arguing that China’s publicly-stated defense spending was well short of its actual outlays, and warned of that country’s rapid modernization and the challenge it posed to the U.S. military.

A staunch supporter and defender of Tinker Air Force Base and the Oklahoma City Air Logistics Complex in his state, Inhofe also advocated for the platforms, such as the E-3 AWACS, that were serviced in that depot. Inhofe was also a reliable advocate for veteran’s issues.

Toward the end of his time in Congress, Inhofe was the 2022 recipient of AFA’s Stuart Symington Award, the association’s highest civilian award, presented to figures of national influence for their support of the Air Force and the U.S. military.

Inhofe’s advocacy of the F-22 and F-35 fighters, B-21 bomber and KC-46 tanker was considered vital in their development and ultimate procurement.

Drafted into the Army at age 18 and served a year, from 1957 to 1958, Inhofe worked in his father’s insurance business before entering politics.

He served in Oklahoma’s house of representatives from 1966 to 1969, then the Oklahoma Senate from 1969 to 1977. In 1973, while a state senator, he earned his bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tulsa. The following year, he ran unsuccessfully for the Oklahoma governor’s seat.

In 1976, Inhofe ran unsuccessfully again, this time for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Two years later, he was elected mayor of Tulsa, serving there until 1984.

Inhofe’s second bid for a seat in Congress was successful, and he represented Oklahoma’s 1st district from 1987 to 1994. That year, he was elected to the U.S. Senate where he became an institution, serving 29 years unti retiring in 2023 having become Oklahoma’s longest-serving U.S. Senator.

Inhofe was acting chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee in late 2017 while its chair, John McCain (R-Ariz.) battled cancer, and became chairman following McCain’s death. He held the chair until early 2021, when the Senate shifted to Democratic control, and beame Ranking Member until January, 2023.

While on the SASC, Inhofe served on the subcommittees for Airland; Readiness and Management Support; and Strategic Forces.

Inhofe opposed the 2021 U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying the Biden Administration should maintain a small U.S. presence there until the Taliban lived up to the terms it agreed to in the 2020 Doha agreement with the Trump Administration. That agreement—which did not include the government of Afghanistan—set the stage for the U.S. quitting its 20-year war there.

Inhofe held a private pilot’s license and often advocated for pilot issues and aviation modernization.

New Mission Deltas Better Integrate Space, Cyber, and ISR, SpOC Boss Says

July 9, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

When the Space Force first unveiled its Integrated Mission Delta concept in September 2023, leaders emphasized how the concept would unite operations and sustainment under one roof, accelerating upgrades and fixes. But nearly a year later, the head of Space Operations Command says the new design better aligns space, cyber, and intelligence units and their people.

SpOC boss Lt. Gen. David N. Miller Jr. said the new deltas fill a “gap” that existed within SpOC in the way deltas were initially constructed.

“We didn’t integrate in that [original] formation all of the elements that we think are principal focus areas for the presentation of forces,” he said. “We focused on the space squadrons. We didn’t integrate into those deltas the [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] squadron or detachment or the cyber unit.”

The Integrated mission deltas include those elements and have produced better results, Miller said, citing an example: “We had an anomaly on one of our newer birds that we had launched in PNT,” Miller said. “And because [commander] Col. Andrew Menschner had the ISR unit to actually focus on the threat right then, and the capability to work the sustainment and fixes to that, he was able to fix something in hours that might have taken days in the past.”

Now commanders have a “clearer picture of the mission need,” he said, as well as the capabilities to defend their assets in space and cyberspace.

The Space Force has just two Integrated Mission Deltas right now. One focuses on GPS, while the other is focused on electronic warfare. But soon two more IMDs will be formed. The head of Space Systems Command, Lt. Gen. Philip A. Garrant, said in May that two missile warning and space domain awareness IMDs will stand up this summer, and more could be coming. Miller said this week that SpOC’s aim is that “over the next year, we will complete the transition of all the deltas that need to be integrated mission deltas into IMDs.”

Miller’s timeline is even more aggressive than the year and a half projected by Garrant less than two months ago.

All told, SpOC has eight mission deltas, including the two integrated mission deltas.

Miller also echoed praise for how the IMDs have allowed operators and program managers and engineers to work together.

“We streamlined the chain of command, and we said that the sustainment function and the capability to ensure the ability to both repair if needed, but also to a limited extent, improve the combat capability as spiral upgrades are coming in, are under the control of a single commander,” Miller noted with pride.

Yet not all SpOC deltas will become IMDs. Deltas focused on ISR and cyber specifically likely won’t make the shift.

“In missions where we are providing capability as part of the combat force, either presented or sustained, where we need to integrate those three mission capabilities of space, cyber, and ISR, I think you’ll see those as potential candidates for integrated mission deltas,” Miller said. As for Delta 6, SpOC’s cyber delta, and Delta 7, the ISR delta, “I’m not sure that those need to be integrated mission deltas.”

They could still see changes in structure, however, Miller said. “For example, our targeting squadron: As a programmer I was the one who laid in the requirements to build that squadron. I know that I don’t have enough capability there to meet all the needs of the combatant commanders. I think there’s growth in some of those missions in particular, I just don’t know that they need to be integrated mission deltas.”

C-17 Flies Last US Troops out of Air Base in Niger

July 8, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The last few U.S. troops departed Air Base 101 in Niger on July 7, flying on an Air Force C-17 Globemaster III.

The moment marks a milestone in the ongoing effort to withdraw American forces from Niger, where they have conducted key counterterrorism missions from two air bases.

After Niger’s ruling junta scrapped a military cooperation pact with the U.S. in March, the military rulers ordered all American forces—nearly 1,000 military personnel—to leave the country no later than Sept. 15. Starting last month, U.S. troops and essential assets from Air Base 101 have been moved out, with the control of the installation area now returned to the Nigerien government.

“Today we reflect positively on the past 15 years of security cooperation and shared sacrifice by U.S. forces and Nigerien forces,” U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth Ekman, U.S. Africa Command Director of Strategy, Engagement, and Programs, said in a statement. “I am grateful for the close collaboration with our Nigerien hosts to support the safe, orderly, and responsible withdrawal of U.S. forces commemorated today at Air Base 101.”

U.S. military personnel work side by side to oversee the loading of equipment onto a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, underscoring the collaborative effort in executing the withdrawal plan. This operation reflects the commitment to a safe, orderly, and responsible transition.

The two U.S. air bases in Niger have been key locations for Washington’s counterterrorism missions for more than a decade. With the closure of the base in the country’s capital of Niamey, the focus shifts to finalizing the withdrawal from Air Base 201 in central Niger, which the U.S. spent over $100 million to build only a few years ago. The base enabled the U.S. to fly drones, such as Air Force MQ-9s, to gather intelligence on militant groups in the region, including al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates.

Ekman told the Associated Press fewer than 500 remaining personnel in Air Base 201 will exit the nation in August, ahead of the September deadline. A small number of U.S. military personnel have already been relocated to other countries in West Africa, but the majority will be initially relocated to Europe.

“Both U.S. and Nigerien officials are dedicated to completing a safe, orderly, and responsible withdrawal by Sept. 15,” a joint statement from the Pentagon and the Department of National Defense of the Republic of Niger noted, highlighting their commitment to the protection of the American troops.

Since Niger’s elected government was overthrown by a military junta in a coup in July 2023, the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) was installed to take control of the nation. Pentagon officials say they remain hopeful they can continue their anti-extremist mission in the Sahel nations of West Africa. In May, a senior military official, citing Nigerians, clarified that this move does not signify the end of relations, but rather the need to renegotiate.

U.S. officials also have emphasized that despite the withdrawal, the relationship between American forces and the Nigerien military “remains strong,” adding that the withdrawal of forces comes on the heels of “working against the backdrop of much more challenging political situation.” The officials have reiterated the two nations will continue to work together regarding issues of mutual interest.

Still, concerns linger as to how Russia and Iran may potentially exploit Niger’s unrest. Experts highlighted that other recent coups in West Africa in Mali and Burkina Faso were followed by a further rise in jihadist violence, geopolitical tensions with Western security allies, and, notably in Mali, the arrival of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. Observers also note widespread anti-Western sentiment and public weariness with current governments across the violence-stricken Sahel nations.

U.S. officials have also raised concerns about the Nigerien junta’s potential decision to grant Iran access to Niger’s uranium reserves for its nuclear program. The Pentagon said American officials have held direct discussions with the junta regarding their intentions to foster relationships with Moscow and Tehran, although no agreements have been finalized.

How USSF Is Building Better Space Operators

July 8, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Space Operations Command boss Lt. Gen. David N. Miller Jr. said more advanced, integrated training for space operators is coming and will result in a readier, more combat-attuned force.

Creating Space Forces-Space, the new operational component under U.S. Space Command, has freed SpOC to put more emphasis on generating and sustaining ready combat forces, Miller said July 8 at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower talk.

“The task is to improve it now based off the capabilities we have and rapidly spiral in as much as much capability as we can get,” Miller said.

Lt. Gen. David N. Miller Jr. speaks at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Va., on July 8, 2024. Amy Hudson/Air & Space Forces Magazine

The establishment of Space Forces-Space (S4S) last December as the organization responsible for presenting forces to U.S. Space Command, enabled SpOC to better focus its efforts. Prior to S4S standing up, SpOC was pulled in two directions, presenting forces to SPACECOM and training Guardians to support all the other combatant commands. Now that the duties are split, Space Operations Command can better focus on how “to provide that spacepower to all the combatant commands, not just U.S. Space Command,” Miller said.

At the same time, SpOC is changing how it presents that spacepower. The new Space Force Generation Model defines periods of focus, so that units and the Guardians assigned to them get a break from day-to-day operations to train, regenerate readiness through high-end training and exercises, and then stand ready for full-time operational duty.

That high-end training—part of the six-week “ready” phase—is the key to improving, Miller said

“In the past, you might see an individual unit focus their training model on executing a mission-essential task list that was fundamentally about baselining their capability to operate a system,” Miller said. “That’s no more. It is primarily focused on the threat.”

To meet the threat, Miller added, Deltas will train together across a mission area, focusing less on specific systems and more on how to accomplish an objective.

“I was just at Buckley last week visiting Delta 4, which has the missile warning and tracking mission area,” Miller said. “The commander there is a guy named Col. Bobby Schmitt. He now trains, it’s not just SBIRS training … he’s training across the formation, across their ground-based radars, to track things like hypersonic vehicles better, to focus on potential fractional orbital bombardment system capabilities like the PRC had been building, better. So he’s training as a mission area.”

Following that, Miller added, Deltas will train for “planning across formations,” figuring out ways for different units to support each other and emulating how the joint force would operate in a fight.

To make that happen, SpOC had to synchronize the force generation model across units, a process that culminated July 1.

“Every unit went in together, they trained together, they were prepared together,” Miller said.

More modernization is needed, as Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman has noted in the past, and Miller echoed that sentiment.

“Right now we don’t have the emulation capability for the threat and the simulation capability across units to allow us to train at the high-fidelity levels that we will need to,” he said. “I’ll be honest with you, much of that training will likely be very sensitive and we would not want to expose that in a live-fly arena. So it’s going to probably have to be virtual.”

While past training simulations and software focused on particular weapons systems, Miller wants future systems to emphasize integration. Miller said he is working with his counterpart at Space Training and Readiness Command, Maj. Gen. Timothy A. Sejba, to create more training opportunities and tabletop exercises—highlighted by the service’s premier Space Flag exercise, which currently runs twice annually for three weeks.

“We’re trying to build those into a more rapid pace,” Miller said.

Sentinel ICBM Survives Pentagon Review, But Cost Jumps 81%

July 8, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The cost overrun on the Air Force’s LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile is more than twice what was anticipated early this year—81 percent compared to 37 percent—but Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante has certified that the program must continue, the Department of Defense announced July 8.

The Pentagon also indicated the program will be delayed at least three years, instead of the two previously predicted, and the Air Force alone seemingly must bear the cost of the overrun.

If the program was to continue as it had been previously structured, it would cost $140.9 billion, LaPlante said in a press conference to announce the results of a six-month, statutorily mandated review of the Sentinel he conducted after the Air Force revealed it was in breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act in January.

The Nunn-McCurdy Act requires the Pentagon to inform lawmakers if a program incurs a cost or schedule overrun of more than 15 percent. Any breach over 15 percent is considered “significant,” while a breach of 30 percent is considered “critical.” For critical breaches, the Secretary of Defense must either cancel the program or certify it to continue as necessary for national security. A Pentagon official said the certification function was delegated by Austin to LaPlante.

The Sentinel program will be “reasonably modified,” LaPlante said, to take out some of the cost overage, but Air Force acquisition chief Andrew Hunter said the final cost will still be similar to the new estimate for the existing program.

“Along with this certification to Congress, I am rescinding the program’s Milestone B and directing the Air Force to come back to me with a plan to restructure the program,” LaPlante said. “Preserving schedule will be a key consideration during this restructuring, but a delay of several years is currently estimated.” He offered no more specific prediction of the delay, previously estimated at two years.

It will take about 18 months to two years to restructure, Hunter said, but work on Sentinel will continue in the meantime.

Northrop Grumman is the prime contractor for designing, developing, integrating, and testing the Sentinel missile, as well as the basing infrastructure that goes with it.

LaPlante said he certified the program is necessary and should continue because it is:

Essential to national security

There are no alternative programs that can achieve the requirement at less cost

The director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation agrees that the new costs estimates are reasonable

The program is “a higher priority than programs whose funding must be reduced to accommodate the growth in cost”

The program’s management structure is adequate to manage and control the program acquisition unit cost

Asked about alternatives considered, LaPlante said the review team examined “about four to five different options,” including extending the aging Minuteman III missiles until 2070, “hybrid options of different ground facilities, mobile versus fixed,” and others.

In every case, either the cost was “prohibitive” versus restructuring the Sentinel “or it didn’t meet the operational requirements that the warfighter had levied on us,” he said.

As for the “root cause” of the problem and whether the program should have advanced to the engineering and manufacturing development phase in 2020, LaPlante said “it’s clear, certainly for the ground segment, that … the department was not at a Preliminary Design Review—PDR—level of maturity at the Milestone B, which was in September of 2020.” The plan for the “ground segment” and “launch element” was lacking key information because building a new ICBM is something the Pentagon hasn’t done in 50 years, he said.

“The knowledge that we have today is much better than [we had] even have four years ago,” LaPlante asserted.

“It is important to note that this certification does not indicate business as usual,” he added. “The program will be restructured to address the root causes of the breach and ensure an appropriate management structure is in place to control costs.” He said there are “reasons” for the cost growth but “no excuses.”

“We fully appreciate the magnitude of the cost, but we also understand the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces and of not addressing the very real threats we confront,” LaPlante said.

Hunter indicated the Air Force will be solely responsible for finding the roughly $45.3 billion in additional funds the Sentinel will require, but said the overages will not start kicking in for another five budget years. That means the Air Force has time to restructure its budget to adjust for the ICBM’s higher cost, he said.

Asked what might be cut to pay for the Sentinel, Hunter said “our current cost profile does not suggest that any of the cost growth in the Sentinel program will be realized over the course of the next five years or so—inside the Future Years Defense Program” and it will be “a decision far down the road to decide what trade-offs we’re going to need to make in order to be able to continue to pursue the Sentinel program.”

Those decisions won’t be made until the program reaches the Milestone B decision again, he added.

Hunter also said the cost growth on Sentinel is all still projected at this point.

“So this is future cost growth that we’re projecting and estimating,” he said. “And the reason why we now know about this projected cost growth is because we’ve dramatically accelerated the maturity of the design of the ground segment. That’s where the vast majority of this cost growth resides and is being driven by.”

While Sentinel is being restructured, “we’ll do what it takes to sustain Minuteman III to meet warfighter requirements,” Hunter said.

LaPlante noted that the plan that was reviewed is not the one which will govern the Sentinel from here on out.

“What is going forward in this certification is not that plan, but a modification of that plan, with some changes made to the launch facility to make it more cost effective, as well as less complex,” and to adjust the schedule.

He explained that the baseline launch facility “had a size and a complexity that when we looked at it carefully … could be scaled back.” By reducing the size and complexity, “it also reduces the timeline of doing the transition between the existing system—Minuteman III—and the new system. So both of those were where the changes that are being recommended for the modification.”

When the program is overhauled, Hunter said, “we will bring a new program baseline to Dr. LaPlante for approval, and those numbers may vary slightly from the numbers that we’re discussing today, but that’ll be the new program baseline, and we expect that process to take on the order of 18 to 24 months to complete.”

The Air Force has already taken “proactive steps” to correct the program while the review has been underway, Hunter said.

“Last fall, the Department of the Air Force established a Nuclear Oversight Committee, which is co-chaired by the most senior leaders of the Department of the Air Force,” he said. The committee is responsible for providing oversight of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise, “including strategic bombers, land-based ICBMs, and nuclear command and control.” The Department of the Air Force also established “a dedicated program executive officer, or PEO, for ICBMs, and are in the process of elevating the commander of the Air Force nuclear weapons center to a three-star,” up from a two-star billet, and “established the Nuclear System Center.”

These steps “demonstrate our dedication to bringing the critically important Sentinel program to full mission capability,” he said.

Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James C. Slife said the ICBM leg of the nuclear triad is essential to complementing the air- and sea-based legs “amidst an increasingly complex and dynamic security environment, which for the first time includes the People’s Republic of China as a major nuclear armed power and strategic competitor.”

The land leg’s “geographic dispersal creates targeting problems for our adversaries,” Slife said. “Transitioning from the Minuteman III to the Sentinel system through a restructure program is the best way to continue providing these capabilities.” He said the Air Force will “continue working closely with the Department of Defense and other stakeholders to mitigate risk and minimize gaps as we field modernized systems for the future.” The service will continue to “sustain and defend the Minuteman III as [we] have for more than 50 years, while we field a new Sentinel ICBM weapon system.”

Sentinel is a massive program to replace the Minuteman III ICBM deterrent force. It will replace 400 missiles in silos, plus additional missiles for spares and test, and radically overhaul the silos themselves, as well as the launch capsules, communication systems, utilities and civil engineering for the ICBM enterprise.

The Air Force “fully supports the decision to restructure the Sentinel program and is committed to restructuring in a manner that provides robust nuclear deterrent into the future, promotes the most effective acquisition of this critical capability that controls cost and delivers weapons system on a schedule that ensures our ability to sustain the nuclear deterrent,” Hunter said.

The Department of the Air Force’s leaders are “acutely aware that we can and must do more to improve program management and oversight of this vital project. We do not take lightly the once-in-a-generation responsibility to modernize the ground leg of the nuclear triad, and are mindful of the scope and scale of this undertaking, which is unprecedented in contemporary times.”

LaPlante emphasized that the Sentinel is “a historic, multi-generational program to modernize this nation’s nuclear posture. The Nunn-McCurdy review we just completed was of the highest priority. It was detailed, comprehensive and objective. We’ve identified the root causes of the increased costs, and we are already working to . ..move forward. But most importantly, we believe we are on the right path, moving together and forward, and despite the historic scale and complexity, we can do this. We know we have to get this right, and we will.”

CCA Contract Expected in Fall; First Versions Under Construction

July 6, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force will likely award a contract or contracts for the first increment of Collaborative Combat Aircraft in late September or early October, sources familiar with the program said. It’s not yet been decided if the Air Force will carry one or both of its Increment 1 competitors—Anduril and General Atomics—into the next phase of development.

Prior to contract award, both companies will have to pass “a CDR-like review,” an industry source said, referring to Critical Design Review, a benchmark that typically takes place after a program has been underway and under contract for two or more years. With CCA, though, the goal is to put actual operational examples into the hands of operators within two years of contract award.

Anduril and General Atomics were picked for the CCA Increment 1 phase in April. Unlike previous awards, the service said it will allow non-selected competitors to vie for production of the ultimately selected airplane.

The Air Force’s goal is to quickly produce 100 of the autonomous aircraft and begin experimenting with them operationally, using lessons learned to refine their design and capabilities. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has said he sees an Air Force requirement for at least 1,000 and as many as 2,000 CCAs by the mid-2030s. He also sees the unit cost of CCA coming in at around a third of the cost of an F-35—about $27 million.

On the June 29 edition of “The Merge” podcast, Anduril and General Atomics executives discussed the state of their entries and both said numerous times they view the two offerings as “complementary,” so it is possible that both are expected to advance to the next phase, which may or may not carry the traditional description “engineering and manufacturing development.”

Much of the CCA effort is geared to “what’s available now, and what can we get now, instead of highly optimizing a platform that’s going to take us 10 years,” said Anduril vice president for air dominance Diem Salmon.

The Air Force is going to get “two very complimentary capabilities that they’ll be able to kind of procure and scale, and everybody wins,” she said.

Anduril’s offering is based on its “Fury” design, which started out as being targeted toward a stealthy sparring partner for F-35s and F-22s in live-fly mock dogfights; Anduril acquired the design when it bought Blue Force Technologies.

General Atomics’ CCA is based closely on its XQ-67A Off-Board Sensing Station (OBSS), being developed for the Air Force Research Laboratory. That aircraft flew for the first time this spring, and sources said it very closely resembles what GA will offer for the CCA.

An industry source said AFRL also planned an Off Board Weapon Station (OBWS) program that would partner with the OBSS as a hunter-killer two-aircraft system—but that has been subsumed into the CCA effort.

Mike Atwood, General Atomics vice president for advanced programs, said on The Merge podcast that his company’s CCA is already well under construction. Salmon said the program requires some “up-front risk” in terms of spending company funds to develop prototypes before a contract is awarded.

Both companies are privately held, giving each some flexibility to invest in independent R&D that publicly-held major primes may not have.

General Atomics is also working on the “LongShot” program, a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency effort to obtain extended range for air-to-air missiles by launching a pod that can carry them closer to airborne enemies before release.

The Air Force and industry sources have confirmed that Increment 1 will be focused on an air-to-air capability, equipped with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles the Air Force would buy in atypically large numbers in the fiscal 2025 budget request.

Sources said the Air Force envisions CCAs fanned out on a wide front, as many as six each controlled by a single crewed fifth-generation F-22 or F-35. The dispersed formation will create a large synthetic aperture radar net which can more precisely spot and target an adversary’s fifth-generation aircraft, allowing friendly forces to more quickly engage them and buy back some of the “first-look, first-shot” capability lost in recent years. It isn’t clear what kind of radar or shared radar the aircraft could use, as high-end Active Electronically-Scanned Array (AESA) radars are expensive and might break the cost ceiling for a CCA.

Atwood said part of the program requires a plan for quickly fabricating aircraft at scale, something he said can be accomplished at GA’s San Diego-area facilities where production of MQ-9s is winding down. The GA version of CCA will also re-use some parts of the Reaper, further accelerating production. He said GA could deliver the first CCA inside of 24 months, “if not a year.”

Salmon said Anduril is similarly able to move quickly, having an “in-house composites shop,” although Atwood said CCAs may use more metal than composites, to ease production and reduce cost.

“We’re actually falling back on … hybrid structures: metal frames with composite skins,” Atwood said on The Merge.

Both executives said a major element of CCA Increment 1 will be developing trust among fighter pilots that the CCAs will go where they are meant to and do what the pilots tell them to.

Atwood said General Atomics is flying a number of its MQ-20 Avenger stealthy, jet-powered aircraft that are a step up from the MQ-9 Reaper, and “it’s time to get off the … Nevada Test and Training Range” and into the hands of operators.

An industry source said General Atomics has built seven Avengers, of which two are owned by the company and five are being used experimentally by other government entities. The Avenger has over 38,000 flight hours across 5,000 missions. Avenger has become “the surrogate CCA for autonomy testing,” the source said, having flown with “every autonomous software out there.”

“The technology is here,” Atwood said, that CCAs can be trusted, and Salmon said human aircrews just need “experience with it.”

Atwood said the Air Force has “honed in” on the appropriate size and capability of the CCA over many years, saying the X-45 Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle was too big, while the Kratos XQ-58 proved too small.

Planning for a future autonomous aircraft beyond CCA is well underway, Atwood said. The next generation will be “much more survivable, autonomous, … cognitive.” He described it as being developed under DARPA’s LongShot program.

The Air Force funds the CCA in the same line item as the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, and in recent weeks, senior service leaders have voiced concern that NGAD may not survive as it is now structured: a multi-hundred million dollar, crewed successor to the frontline F-22. It may be that CCA is moving so rapidly that an autonomous version of NGAD—which would likely be far less costly than a piloted version—could be possible on the timelines required by the Air Force.

General Atomics is also looking toward future CCAs with its Gambit program, wherein various planforms could ride on a single common chassis and offer modular capability and modular construction. The high end of the Gambit line is envisioned as a hybrid-engined, high-altitude flying wing with 60 hours of endurance; roughly double that which can be achieved with the Reaper. GA is developing the engine for this variant, but DARPA is also funding Northrop Grumman to build a similar experimental aircraft, the XRQ-73 SHEPARD, for Series Hybrid Electric Propulsion AiR Demonstration, which would also have a hybrid electric powerplant.