VCSO: Commercial Space Strategy Coming ‘Within the Next Month’

March 20, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force’s strategy for leveraging commercial space is coming “within the next month” and will include details on the service’s program for tapping into those capabilities during a conflict, Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael A. Guetlein said March 20.

Pentagon officials have been talking about the Commercial Space Strategy nearing completion for more than six months now. Speaking at a forum hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, Guetlein offered a few details on how it will look.

“We’re going to release the commercial strategy here within the next month,” said Guetlein. “In that commercial strategy, we’re going to talk about the Commercial Augmented Space Reserve. That is all about building the partnerships during peacetime with our industry partners, that we’ve never done before, so that we can share data, talk about ideas, etc., so that I can guarantee your capability will be there during times of crisis or conflict.

“Those are transparent conversations that we need to have that we haven’t been having in the past,” he added. “So we are trying to go across the entire spectrum of discussions and organizations and processes to embrace as much of the commercial partnership as we can.”

The concept of CASR has been compared to the Air Force’s Civil Reserve Air Fleet, which draws planes from U.S. airlines to provide emergency airlift in times of crisis. The fleet was last activated during the noncombatant evacuation out of Afghanistan.

For the Space Force, however, leveraging commercial capabilities is a more pressing need.

“The threat is also coming in the near term, not in the far term. So that means I don’t have time to go off and build a lot of new capability,” said Guetlein. “If you look at the DOD way of the past, we would say we needed to build the capability and own the capability. … That’s all changing. I can’t build enough capability fast enough to get after the near-term threat.”

To address the issue, the Space Force is looking to create what it calls “hybrid architectures” of military, commercial, and allied satellites that all feed data into one system, Guetlein said.

“As we do that, we’re able to reach into industry and take advantage of their innovation,” he added.

Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein speaks at the McAleese Defense Programs Conference in Washington, D.C., March 7, 2024. **U.S. Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich**

One such architecture is the Protected Tactical Enterprise Service, or PTES—a ground system that enables anti-jamming satellite communications for tactical users across all services and around the globe by using the Protected Tactical Waveform. In its 2025 budget, the Space Force wants to expand PTES to include commercial and allied satellites “to support filling critical tactical SATCOM gaps and improve overall theater warfighting SATCOM flexibility and resiliency,” according to budget documents.

The expansion effort is budgeted for $55.4 million in fiscal 2025 and $304.8 million through 2029 for demonstrations, experiments, and prototypes, with the goal of reaching initial operational capability by the end of fiscal 2026.

The Space Force also has an even bigger effort going called Commercial Satellite Communications, or COMSATCOM, which is slated to get $134.5 million in 2025 for experimenting and procuring services over wideband, narrowband, protected, and commercial communications bands.

Satellite communications may not be the only area where the Space Force turns to industry. National Reconnaissance Office director Christopher J. Scolese, speaking on the same panel as Guetlein, noted that his agency has started using commercial satellite imagery for geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) and using commercial satellite buses for its weather satellites.

“We can focus the exquisite systems on the thing that you need an exquisite system for. We can utilize the commercial systems to address many of the other issues that we have to go off and deal with,” he noted.

The Space Force and NRO are working closely on commercial integration, Guetlein and Scolese said, to include so-called “Reverse Industry Days” when the Space Force invites companies to learn about problems the service is working on and offer their own solutions, instead of detailing requirements.

“When we’re looking at what the future contracts might look like for commercial, the NRO is leading the way,” Guetlein said. “Their GEOINT contracts … we’re using that currently as our model of a way to get after having capacity during times of crisis and conflict.”

As the Air Force Weighs Privatized Dorms, How Will It Oversee Contractors?

March 20, 2024 | By David Roza

As the Air Force considers privatized housing for unaccompanied Airmen at isolated bases or in high-rent areas, the service is looking to the Navy for lessons on how to avoid the problems that have marred privatized military family housing for years.

Specifically, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force David Flosi told lawmakers March 20 that the service is tuned to the Navy’s Public Private Venture program, which Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea said has successfully housed unaccompanied sailors for more than 20 years.

“We’re paying close attention to the Navy and the lessons that they’ve learned so that we don’t replicate some of the mistakes that came through our initial contracts that we wrote with privatizing military family housing,” Flosi said at a hearing before the House Appropriations subcommittee on military construction and veterans affairs. “We’re also learning to be more accountable through that process as well.”

The Air Force is planning to invest $1.1 billion in restoring and modernizing its dormitories, the largest such investment in more than a decade, Flosi said. The plan touches about 60 installations— 23 of which are to be completed in fiscal 2024, installations boss Ravi Chaudhary told lawmakers in February.

The fiscal 2025 budget includes funding to revamp housing at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., Barksdale Air Force Base, La., Cannon Air Force Base, N.M., Goodfellow Air Force Base, Tex., and Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., Flosi said.

The Air Force’s first privatization project for unaccompanied housing will take place at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., though the chief did not say when that project will begin. Most military barracks, which are called dormitories in the Air Force, are run by the government, but the Navy and Army are also looking to explore or expand privatized barracks.

U.S. Airmen assigned to the 20th Fighter Wing clean different levels of a dormitory building during a dorm clean-up at Shaw Air Force Base, S.C., Jan. 28, 2017.

Chaudhary told Air & Space Forces Magazine he was confident about overseeing privatized dormitories.

“If we didn’t capture all of the lessons learned from privatized housing, we wouldn’t be worth our salt,” he said earlier this month. “So yes, any privatized approach will capture the lessons, and if, anything, make it more robust so that we don’t get into the situation that we had in 2019 with privatized housing.”

Problems with privatized family housing actually became widely known in 2018, when Reuters published an investigative series of articles on how inconsistent oversight and insufficient standards led to unsafe family housing and unaccountable contractors across the armed forces. Subcommittee ranking member Rep. Deborah Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) was skeptical contractors could improve their performance in unaccompanied housing.

“I would envision us having, in the not too distant future, hearings like we had with family housing companies,” she said at the March 20 hearing, “because the privatization process is a failure in terms of maintaining the quality of life of housing.”

The senior enlisted leaders of each branch said they shared Schultz’s concerns but said they were being careful not to repeat past mistakes.

“We also share some concerns from past history, which is why we are measuring twice to cut once in this phase,” said Sergeant Major of the Army Michael Weimer, whose service is exploring privatized unaccompanied housing at Fort Meade, Md., U.S. Army Garrison Miami, Fla., and Fort Irwin, Calif.

Honea, the top enlisted sailor, said the privatized military family housing debacle represented a failure of oversight on the part of military leaders. The Navy’s Public Private Venture (PPV) program was an exception, he said, especially for barracks like Pacific Beacon in San Diego, which bills itself as “resort-style” housing for single enlisted sailors, complete with a rooftop pool and “unmatched views of the city.”

“Private barracks like Pacific Beacon have been operating for 20-plus years largely as a success because we’ve not abdicated our responsibility in providing that oversight to ensure that our private partner is delivering on the promises that they’re going to make,” Honea said. “If we continue along that way, we’re going to do resoundingly well.”

The advantage of privatized housing is that it allows services to meet changing needs faster than with military construction funds, which can take years to turn into bricks and mortar.

Flosi said privatized housing could be particularly useful where Airmen suffer excessive commute times due to a lack of housing in remote areas. For example, Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) said Airmen at Creech Air Force Base, Nev., spend as much as $400 per month on gas in order to drive 100 miles to work and back every day. Privatized housing could also be useful in areas where local rent prices outpace the basic allowance for housing, Flosi said.

The government’s own housing has had issues of its own. The Government Accountability Office published a report last year identifying serious flaws in how each service assesses its unaccompanied housing, including the Air Force. The report flagged missing heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems, broken fire safety systems, mold or mildew growth, water quality problems, pests, insufficient oversight from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and other issues.

The Government Accountability Office presented images of mold found in military barracks during a Sept. 27 House Armed Services Committee hearing. **Screenshot via YouTube/U.S. House Armed Services Committee**

The index for evaluating housing conditions may also be in need of an update: the GAO analysis showed that nearly 50 percent of Air Force dormitories considered at risk of significant degradation had a condition score of 80 or above. There also is no Air Force-wide system for monitoring tenant satisfaction, which hampers leaders’ ability to perceive and respond to flaws. Privatized military family housing suffered from similar issues across the services, GAO noted.

“These problems are, unfortunately, not dissimilar from the ones we have observed and documented in privatized family housing,” Elizabeth Field, GAO’s director for defense capabilities and management, said in September. “The only real difference is that the Defense Department has felt more pressure in recent years to fix the problems in family housing than it has to fix the problems with barracks.”

For his part, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force John Bentivegna said the Space Force was not looking into privatized unaccompanied housing, but since many new Guardians are older and may have families or postgraduate degrees, the Space Force is “looking at what that means for dorm life, if you will, and what the infrastructure looks like.”

Still skeptical, Wasserman Schultz asked Honea what about about the Navy’s PPV agreements gave him greater confidence in terms of overseeing private contractors. He said did not have an answer ready and promised to follow up with her.

“I just hope this raises caution flags on moving forward on barracks and unaccompanied housing, because I don’t trust them [private housing contractors],” Wasserman Schultz said. “They are willing to take massive fines just as the cost of doing business, and then they do it again. So I would just really consider this a very big caution flag here that could down the road result in language coming from me.”

Pentagon Partners with Japan to Save on New Hypersonic Defense, But How Fast Can It Come?

March 20, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Advances by both Russia and China with hypersonic weapons have the U.S. Air Force general in charge of homeland defense seriously concerned about how to detect and defend against the threat—and the new 2025 budget request is pushing hundreds of millions of dollars toward the effort.

Last week in two different congressional hearings, Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, head of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, emphasized that hypersonics are “probably the most technologically challenging threat that we’re facing, as well as the most destabilizing.” Compared to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic missiles can fly at lower altitudes with less predictable flight patterns, resulting in shorter detection times.

Russia has made significant investments in advanced hypersonic technologies such as glide vehicles, and a 2023 Department of Defense report described China as having the world’s leading hypersonic weaponry, a concern recently emphasized by lawmakers.

Yet in its fiscal 2025 budget request, the Missile Defense Agency is actually planning to cut funds for regional hypersonic missile defense slightly, from $209 million in FY24 to $182 million.

The dip, however, is due in part to savings the agency is reaping from collaboration with Japan’s Ministry of Defense on a next-generation hypersonic missile defense system, budget documents state.

Streamlined contracting practices and the utilization of existing systems also lowered costs—savings MDA budget documents state are crucial for transitioning program requirements and system design towards developing and testing hardware and software.

Last year, the U.S. and Japan announced a joint effort to develop the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), involving RTX (formally known as Raytheon Technologies) and Northrop Grumman. This missile defense system launches modified missiles from U.S. Navy surface warships, aimed at intercepting hypersonic weapons during their “most vulnerable” glide phase, occurring post-launch and before re-entry into the atmosphere. The project represents the second joint development of an interceptor missile by Washington and Tokyo, following the two allies’ successful collaboration on the advanced interceptor missile project, Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA.

MDA’s budget request stated the GPI is scheduled for delivery in fiscal 2035. However, Congress mandated in its 2024 National Defense Authorization Act that the Glide Phase Interceptor program achieve initial operational capability by the end of 2029 and full operational capability by the end of 2032.

Lawmakers have shown a willingness to add money to meet its hypersonic defense requirements, though. In the 2024 NDAA, they doubled authorized spending for hypersonic defense, adding $225 million to the Pentagon’s $208 million request aimed to accelerate development and fielding of the GPI.

For to GPI to shoot hypersonic missile downs, the U.S. will first have to detect and track them. Accordingly, Guillot cited the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR)—with a 220 degree wide field of view and arrays measuring 60 feet high by 60 feet wide—as one of his “top priorities.”

MDA is seeking $100.9 million for LRDR in fiscal 2025, relatively consistent with the previous year’s request of $103 million. The system will provide “persistent long-range midcourse discrimination, precision tracking, and hit assessment,” according to budget documents, with particular focus on potential long-range missile threats from the Pacific theater.

“LRDR’s improved discrimination capability in the Missile Defense System architecture increases the defensive capacity of the homeland defense interceptor inventory by enabling conservation of Ground Based Interceptors,” budget documents state.

An LRDR system has already been initially fielded at Clear Space Force Station, Alaska. But 2024 and 2025 are poised to be pivotal years for the capability, as MDA outlined plans in its budget to test and incorporate it into the agency’s “increments” and achieve operational acceptance and transfer of the system to the U.S. Space Force.

Aside from GPI and LRDR, the Missile Defense Agency’s 2025 hypersonic defense budget includes $76 million for its Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor prototyping program. In February, MDA and the Space Development Agency worked together to launch a batch of missile tracking satellites into low-Earth orbit, including MDA’s HBTSS and SDA’s Tracking Layer spacecraft. For the next several years, MDA wants to conduct on-orbit tests and operations with the satellites.

Tom Stafford—Test Pilot, Gemini and Apollo Astronaut—Dies at 93

March 19, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Lt. Gen. Thomas P. Stafford, a U.S. Air Force test pilot, an astronaut on two Gemini and two Apollo missions, and an important figure in the development of stealth technology, died on March 18 at the age of 93.

Stafford “wrote the book” on basic test flight techniques still taught today, and his space flights were all highly significant. As commander of Apollo 10 in 1969, Stafford led the dress rehearsal for Apollo 11’s moon landing, taking his lunar module within nine miles of the moon’s surface, and proving out nearly all other flight aspects of the landing missions that followed. As commander of the July, 1975 Apollo-Soyuz Test Program, Stafford pioneered international cooperation in space with the Soviet Union, laying a foundation for the two countries to later jointly build and inhabit the International Space Station.

After leaving NASA in 1975, Stafford commanded the Experimental Flight Test Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., where he supervised testing of the A-10, F-15 and F-16 fighters and the B-1B bomber. He also oversaw secret aircraft activities at Groom Lake, including development and test of the Have Blue experimental stealth aircraft, and later wrote the requirements for the F-117 attack plane which resulted from it. While at Edwards, Stafford also continued to fly, including surreptitiously-acquired Soviet fighters. Having learned Russian for the Apollo-Soyuz program, he was also a key debriefer of Russian pilot Viktor Byelenko, who defected to the West with a then-new MiG-25 in 1976.

In his last Air Force job, Stafford was deputy chief of staff for research, development and acquisition. He drafted the requirements for the F-117, as well as the AGM-129 stealth cruise missile and the B-2 bomber. He also outlined the Advanced Tactical Fighter roadmap which eventually culminated in the F-22. He retired from the Air Force in 1979.

Born in Oklahoma, Stafford served with the Oklahoma National Guard in high school. In 1952, he graduated near the top of his class from the U.S. Naval Academy with honors in engineering. However, to get access to the hottest airplanes, he opted for an Air Force commission.

He earned his wings in 1953 and went into fighters, flying the F-86D in Florida, South Dakota, and Germany. He was picked for the test pilot school, from which he graduated first in his class in 1959. Soon thereafter, as a test pilot instructor, he co-wrote the manuals “Pilot’s Handbook for Performance Flight Testing” and “Aerodynamics Handbook for Performance Flight Testing,” which are still assigned today.

Stafford was a finalist for the Mercury program but was an inch too tall to fit in the cramped and was turned down on that point alone. He re-applied to be an astronaut, but while he was waiting, he applied to and was accepted at Harvard Business School. He was about to start classes in 1962 when he got word he’d been chosen for the “New Nine” astronaut group and accepted the assignment with NASA. That group would earn their space spurs in the two-man Gemini craft, and those who survived all went on to command Apollo moon missions.

Gemini 6, in December, 1965, was Stafford’s first space mission. He and mission commander Wally Schirra made the first rendezvous—but not a docking—with another crewed spacecraft, Gemini 7. Rendezvous was the critical element in the plan to go to the moon.

Six months later, in May, 1966, Stafford commanded Gemini 9, flying into space with pilot Gene Cernan. They replaced the prime crew at virtually the last minute, after astronauts Elliot See and Charles Basset were killed in a T-38 crash.

The mission was fraught with problems, with the loss of their Agena target vehicle in a launch pad explosion, and the substitute vehicle unable to jettison its launch shroud in orbit. Cernan was to have tested a jet backpack on a spacewalk, but grave unexpected difficulties and Cernan’s exhaustion maneuvering in his stiff, reinforced space suit drove Stafford to abort the rest of the test. Cernan barely managed to re-enter the ship. When the guidance computer failed, Stafford calculated re-entry with paper and pencil. The overall difficulties and potential disaster of losing Cernan on the mission pushed NASA to create an underwater spacewalk rehearsal capability.

Astronauts Thomas Stafford (right) and Eugene Cernan wave to the crowd aboard the aircraft carrier USS Wasp as they emerge from their Gemini-9 capsule on June 6, 1966. John C. Stonesifer (far right), with the Manned Spacecraft Center’s Landing and Recovery Division, was onboard to greet the astronauts. NASA photo

Three years later, in May, 1969, Stafford commanded Apollo 10, and, reunited with Cernan, was the first to pilot the lunar module, nicknamed “Snoopy,” in lunar orbit. The two mapped landing sites in the Sea of Tranquility for Apollo 11, and contended with a faulty guidance system, but safely re-docked with the command module, nicknamed “Charlie Brown.” On the return, along with command module pilot John Young, the crew set a re-entry speed record of nearly 25,000 miles per hour. Together, they had performed all elements of the moon landing but the landing itself, which took place two months later in July, 1969.

After Apollo 10, Stafford served as head of the astronaut office, managing astronaut assignments and specialties for the remainder of the Apollo moon landing and Skylab programs. He then served as Deputy Director of Flight Crew Operations at Johnson Space Center, Texas, bearing the rank of Brigadier General; the first serving astronaut at that rank.

Stafford was the co-commander of the Apollo-Soyuz program in 1975, learning Russian and helping develop the adapter that made it possible for the two highly dissimilar craft to dock. Along with astronauts Deke Slayton and Vance Brand, Stafford docked with a Soyuz bearing cosmonauts Alexei Leonov—first man to make a spacewalk—and Valeriy Kubasov, who shared mementos and conducted experiments for 44 hours before undocking and making their separate ways back to Earth. The mission lasted nine days in total. Stafford was the first U.S. general officer to make a space flight.

The mission was credited with reducing tensions between the two superpowers and laying a diplomatic foundation for the ISS 20 years later.

Stafford and Leonov became close friends over the ensuing decades, and Stafford delivered the eulogy, in Russian, at Leonov’s 2019 funeral.

Stafford returned to the Air Force from NASA and was promoted to major general with the Edwards command. In 1978, he took on the deputy chief of staff assignment, during which laid the groundwork for the future force. He retired from the Air Force in 1979.

During his years with NASA and the Air Force, Stafford amassed nearly 7,000 flying hours and more than 507 hours of spaceflight, flying more than 100 types of aircraft and spacecraft.

In retirement, Stafford was an aviation consultant for many companies, and served on the board of Gulfstream Aerospace, as well as others. He headed many blue-ribbon commissions for NASA to map out future human space exploration, and advised NASA on the Shuttle-Mir program, during which Space Shuttle missions STS-63 and STS-71 docked with the Russian Mir space station. He also served on the Return to Flight Task Force after the 2003 loss of the Columbia shuttle.

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), left, speaks with retired astronaut Lt. Gen. Thomas Stafford prior to the start of a hearing before the House Subcommitte on Space and Aeronautics regarding Safety of Human Spaceflight on Capitol Hill, Dec. 2, 2009, in Washington. NASA photo/Bill Ingalls

He published an autobiography, co-written with Michael Casutt, titled “We Have Capture: Tom Stafford and the Space Race,” in 2002.

The Lt. Gen. Thomas P. Stafford Air & Space Museum, a National Air and Space Museum affiliate, opened in Oklahoma in 1981, and today exhibits many of the artifacts from Stafford’s space and USAF career.

Stafford received dozens of distinguished honors, awards and honorary degrees. They include two awards of the Harmon Trophy; the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics award in 1969; the Society of Experimental Test Pilots Doolittle Award in 1979, and the Congressional Space Medal of Honor in 1993. In 2011, Stafford received both the National Aeronautic Association’s Wright Brothers Memorial Trophy and the Air Force Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award. He was elected to the U.S. Astronaut Hall of Fame; the International Space Hall of Fame; the National Aviation Hall of Fame and made a fellow of the American Astronautical Society.

His military decorations include the Air Force Distinguished Service Medal; Distinguished Flying Cross, Air Force Commendation Medal and Air Force Outstanding Unit Award. He received the Thomas D. White Air Force Space Trophy in 1975. His NASA Awards include the Exceptional Service Medal and two awards of the Distinguished Service Medal.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said Stafford was “critical to the earliest successes of our nation’s space program and was instrumental in developing space as a model for international cooperation. He also helped us learn from our tragedies and grow and reach for the next generation of achievement,” and contributed thoughts and ideas to NASA “to the end of his life.”

Air Force Publishes Sweeping Analysis of Suicide Deaths in 2020

March 19, 2024 | By David Roza

The Air Force published a comprehensive analysis of suicide deaths during the calendar year 2020 earlier this month. The Total Force Department of the Air Force Standardized Suicide Fatality Analysis (StandS) combined data from medical, personnel, investigation, and event reports for each Active Duty, Guard, Reserve, and Department of the Air Force civilian who died by suicide in 2020—an in-depth study to help leaders prevent future deaths.

The goals of StandS are to standardize the suicide death review process to better understand their causes, and to generate lessons learned and actionable recommendations for military suicide prevention, intervention, and “postvention.”

Future studies will look at deaths from calendar years 2018, 2019, 2021, and beyond, though the release dates for those are not yet available. The StandS report is the result of a partnership between the Air Force and the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences.

Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services, first announced the report in March 2023, saying it was due that spring. It took longer than expected because it was the first report of its kind and officials wanted to get it right, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in December.

There are two versions of StandS: a leadership report that summarizes the findings and provides recommendations, and a scientific report for researchers and health providers with more granular statistics. The findings listed on the leadership report include:

In 2020, most of the 117 members of the Air Force and Space Force who died by suicide were Active duty, with 81 deaths (69.2 percent of the total), 17 were Air National Guardsmen (14.5 percent), 11 were Reservists (9.4 percent), and 8 were civilians (6.8 percent).

Nearly all suicide decedents were male (93.2 percent).

The vast majority of suicide decedents were enlisted (90.8 percent).

The average age was 30.6 years old.

The most common method of death was firearm use (68.4 percent). Most of the firearms were owned by the decedent (70 percent) or another person (6.3 percent), not the Air Force.

Alcohol was known to have been used during over a third of suicide deaths (39.3 percent)

Most of the decedents were struggling in their relationships with intimate partners (74.4%), family members (37.6 percent), or other military members (24.8 percent). Other common problems included workplace issues (53.8%), administrative/legal (43.6 percent) issues, and financial (29.9 percent) stress. Most of the decedents (80.3 percent) were affected by several of these issues at once.

Most decedents (68.4 percent) disclosed suicidal thoughts at some point in their life, with over half (58.1 percent) communicating an intent to die by suicide at some point in their life.

About 70.9 percent of the decedents had been in contact with a primary care provider for any reason in the year prior to their death, while 39.3 percent had been in contact with a mental health provider.

About 16.2 percent of the decedents had a history of non-suicidal self-directed violence, while 26.5 percent had a history of prior suicide attempts.

air force suicide — U.S. Airmen from the 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing honor the daily estimated number of veterans who take their own lives, symbolized by 22 pairs of boots in recognition of Suicide Prevention Month Sept. 8, 2021, from an undisclosed location somewhere in Southwest Asia. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Karla Parra

Contributing Factors

Researchers followed a social-ecological model used by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to sort the potential contributing factors into four levels: societal, military community, relational, and individual.

The societal level includes stigma about mental health, norms around firearm use, and stereotypes of masculinity and military identity.

“Adherence to stereotypically masculine traits of stoicism and self-reliance has been linked with thwarted belongingness, an indicator of the desire for suicide, among military personnel,” the report read. “Stoicism and self-reliance can limit self-disclosure, reduce access to social support, and prevent timely help-seeking.”

Isolation due to the COVID-19 pandemic also may have played a role in some cases.

“Loneliness, especially during COVID-19, has been referred to as a bigger health risk than obesity,” researchers said. “Some decedents experienced a lack of social connection so severe that there was no evidence of friendships or romantic relationships.”

The “community” level refers to the relationships people form in neighborhoods, schools, or workplaces. In the military community, some of the contributing factors flagged by the report include the stresses and frequent moves of service life, pay delays, concerns about the impact of mental health care on a member’s career, problems with accessing mental health care, and the normalization of problematic alcohol use and casual joking about suicide.

“Operations tempo and thus, increased responsibilities, were at times above and beyond what the Airmen were able to manage effectively,” the report pointed out under the “military occupational stressors” category. Researchers also found that leaders, colleagues, and family members often missed warning signs for suicide or lacked the tools to coordinate an effective intervention.

“In efforts to establish a ‘Wingman Culture,’ the Air Force has used multiple methods to train and equip Airmen to recognize suicide warning signs in order to take prompt action to save a life,” the report said. “However, individuals in decedents’ social network including friends, family members, intimate partners, military coworkers, and/or leaders (e.g., front-line supervisors, first sergeants, commanders) at times missed warning signs for suicide or noted warning signs but did not adequately respond.”

air force suicides — Hanscom Air Force Base, Mass., Integrated Prevention and Resilience Office provides free gun locks during a suicide prevention event at the Hanscom AFB Main Exchange Sept. 15. U.S. Air Force photo by Jerry Saslav

The relational level refers to conflicts or stressors in a members’ romantic or family relationships, their ability to handle conflict, break-ups, or the death of a friend or loved one. The individual level refers to a member’s own background experiences, mental and physical health, alcohol use, life and financial stresses, and access to firearms.

“No one factor exists in a vacuum—the Social-Ecological Model helps explore the interplay between individual, relational, community, and societal factors influencing suicide,” the report said. Instead of reducing the numbers to descriptive statistics, the report “is based on themes and trends observed by members of the USU team.”

Recommendations

The report offered 68 recommendations to address its findings, many of which involved firearm safety. Researchers called for leaders and service members at all levels to “promote a culture of safe firearm storage” by resourcing for safe storage efforts, creating how-to guides, and forming a task force to come up with a safe firearm plan at each installation.

For commanders, first sergeants, and front-line supervisors, the recommendations included reviewing StandS on an annual basis, holding regular meetings with mental health experts to create goals and evaluate progress, learning how to notice warning signs and act as supportive “gateway” to mental health care, and consulting mental health professionals for how to handle difficult decisions involving Airmen and Guardians with mental health conditions.

The report also made several recommendations specific to the disciplinary process, such as not delivering reprimands before a weekend. In the event of a suicide, researchers said leaders should have a clear communication plan to minimize the chance of rumors spreading false information.

If 2020 was any sign, the force needs to be better-educated on how to notice warning signs of stress, how to manage conflicts in relationships, regulate emotions, create supportive social connections, and how to intervene before a suicide occurs, researchers wrote. That education could take place in Professional Military Education, basic training, tech school, or other forums. Some of that shift involves not tolerating jokes about suicide, while other parts involve learning concrete skills such as where to find help for financial trouble and how to report complaints of discrimination or reprisal. Current suicide prevention training may also need to be updated, they said.

“Wingmen practice healthy behaviors and make responsible choices and encourage others to do the same,” the report said. “Wingmen foster a culture of early help-seeking. Wingmen recognize the risk factors and warning signs of distress in themselves and others and take protective action.”

Col. Daniel Voorhies, 341st Missile Wing vice commander, holds a sign reading, “You Matter” for Airmen entering the installation Sept. 9, 2022 at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. U.S. Air Force photo by Heather Heiney

Other recommendations include aligning mental health services with operational schedules and tempo, increasing support or availability for Airmen with odd hours or top-secret clearances or who are in administrative or legal trouble. It also calls for base- and MAJCOM-level Community Action Boards and Community Action Teams, which would “provide a forum for the cross-organizational review and resolution of individual, family, installation, and community issues that impact the force readiness and the quality of life.”

The recommendations are not binding.

“We must emphasize that the intent behind providing a comprehensive list of recommendations is not to overburden DAF leadership or the [Suicide Prevention Program] with additional tasks or ideas that may have limited implementation feasibility,” researchers wrote. “We trust that the DAF leadership serving as the target audience for this Leadership Report will achieve system-related enhancements in those domains recognized to be most salient, feasible, impactful, and the most likely to result in favorable outcomes not just for suicide risk mitigation but also for the overall health of the Total Force.”

ARRW Hypersonic Missile Tested for Final Time. But Is It Really the End?

March 19, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force conducted what may be the last test of the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon on March 17. But the service is being cagey about whether the test was a success.

“A B-52H Stratofortress conducted a test of the All-Up-Round AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon” on March 17, local time, at the Reagan Test Site near Kwajalein Atoll, an Air Force spokesperson said. The bomber took off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

“This test launched a full prototype operational hypersonic missile and focused on the ARRW’s end-to-end performance,” the spokesperson said. The Air Force “gained valuable insights into the capabilities of this new, cutting-edge technology” from the event, the spokesperson said.

However, the Air Force declined to say what the specific test objectives were or provide details such as length of flight, where it struck the surface, or whether all elements of the launch, separation, and glide sequence happened as expected.

The ARRW is a multi-stage, boost-glide weapon. After separation, a booster—which is adapted from the Army ATACMS missile—accelerates the weapon to hypersonic speed when a clamshell shroud falls away, and the hypersonic glide body then maneuvers to the target.

“This test acquired valuable, unique data, and was intended to further a range of hypersonic programs,” the spokesperson said, likely referencing the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM. “We also validated and improved our test and evaluation capabilities for continued development of advanced hypersonic systems.”

Lockheed Martin Missile and Fire Control builds the ARRW. In March 2023, Air Force acquisition chief Andrew Hunter said the missile would not be pursued into production, after the last tests were conducted to wring whatever knowledge could be had from the project. The line item for ARRW was zeroed out in the fiscal year 2025 budget request submitted to Congress last week. Previously, the ARRW had strung together mixed results from testing. The last all-up round tests in fiscal 2023 appear to have been successes.

However, in recent testimony, senior Pentagon leaders have been less definitive about the ARRW’s future. Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante deferred questions about ARRW production to a closed session during a House Armed Services Committee hearing in February, testifying that “there is a plan—it’s not something we can talk about in this open session.”

Last week, Air Force Lt. Gen. Dale White, principal uniformed deputy to Hunter, told the HASC that future ARRW production decisions “are pending final analysis of all flight test data.”

He said the next event would be “the final test of the all-up round,” with completion by “the end of the second quarter, fiscal year 2024.”

White said the Air Force was shifting near-term missile research to the HACM program and long-term research to reusable hypersonic platforms.

The imminence of the ARRW test has been an open secret since early March, when the Air Force published photos of all-up round No. 5 on a B-52 wing pylon at Andersen, where the service said it was conducting “hypersonic familiarization training” with air and ground crews. Naval surface test monitoring vessels and Missile Defense Agency monitoring aircraft were deployed to the Kwajalein area. The government issued Notice to Airmen warnings of a weapon test launch in the area.

While much of ARRW remains classified, the Air Force has disclosed that Lockheed’s mid-tier acquisition program contract called for a rapid prototyping effort, followed by testing and demonstration of readiness for production, with a number of “leave behind,” operationally-usable assets—leftover missiles—to be produced.

The ARRW’s size requires that it be launched from a bomber, but the HACM will be small enough to be carried by fighter-sized aircraft. Its air-breathing scramjet engine will also give it longer range than ARRW, USAF officials have said.

Though ARRW was zeroed out in fiscal 2025, the Air Force’s budget request calls for $517 million for HACM development in the next fiscal year, and more than $1 billion through 2029, described in budget documents as the development “completion date.” However, its funding profile declines every year of the future-years defense plan, and no long-lead funding in the procurement budget out-years.

Ukraine’s Survival ‘In Danger’ if West Fails to Help, Austin Says

March 19, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III warned March 19 that Ukraine could fall to Russia if the U.S. does not come through with more military assistance.

“Today, Ukraine’s survival is in danger,” Austin told reporters at a press conference at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. “America’s security is at risk. And they don’t have a day to spare, either.”

Austin’s remarks came as he and Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were in Europe to meet with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a roughly 50-member coalition organized by the U.S. to aid to Kyiv in its defense against Russian aggression. The meetings have grown awkward, as the U.S. has failed in recent meetings to muster much aid for the Ukrainians.

A $300 million aid package, the first new aid from the U.S. in months, was announced on March 12 after the U.S. Army identified savings that could be applied to Ukraine. But even U.S. officials acknowledged the limited nature of the aid, mainly aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s artillery shortage and air defenses, and described it as a one-off, unexpected stopgap.

U.S. aid has stalled, as Congress has tried but failed to pass measures to fund continued support. The Biden administration has sought supplemental funding and at one point agreed to package the bill with border security legislation, but after initially backing the bill, many Republicans withdrew their support when former President Donald Trump opposed it. So while there is bipartisan support for more aid to Ukraine in both houses of Congress, passage has been caught up in challenging politics involving both the border and support for Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) has balked at putting a bill on the floor.

Austin, making his first foreign trip of 2024 after being hospitalized in January for complications from surgery to treat prostate cancer, acknowledged Russia’s recent “incremental gains,” noting that they came “at significant costs in terms of personnel and equipment.” But Ukraine is similarly challenged, facing shortages of manpower—its legislature is debating a new conscription bill—and artillery munitions—as U.S. and European suppliers struggle to keep up with demand. The Czech Republic is leading an effort to procure 800,000 artillery shells. Germany, France, Denmark, and Sweden also recently provided aid.

Ukraine Defense Contact Group delegates await the opening statements solidifying support for Ukraine during the sixth in-person meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, March 19, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Dylan Myers

Ukrainian officials “feel confident in their ability to continue to defend their sovereign territory and hold the line,” Austin said. “Of course, they need munitions, they need support in order to be able to continue to do that and, of course, that’s where the supplemental comes in. And we certainly would hope that we will see this supplemental get passed soon. I continue to see broad support in both chambers of Congress for Ukraine, and so I’m optimistic that we will see some action moving forward.”

Many aid proposals at past meetings of the Contact Group focused on long-term assistance, such as providing U.S.-made F-16s to build a Western-style air force and training combined arms units. But after Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 failed, the U.S. focus has begun to shift back to the present.

“Over time, we’ll shift from a focus on the current fight solely to more of a focus on building a longer-term capability for Ukraine,” Austin said. “But for right now, we’re focused on making sure that we can get Ukraine security assistance that it needs to be successful today and in the near and midterm.”

The administration has tried to assuage concerns over how U.S. aid is spent. It launched a public website on March 19, detailing U.S. government oversight of Ukraine assistance—as required by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act. Biden administration officials also have argued that providing U.S.-made equipment has helped fuel U.S. employment.

Fueling a deadly war and talking up jobs at home, however, have often made for awkward domestic politics. But overseas, the issues are clear, Austin said. “That’s a matter of survival and sovereignty for Ukraine,” he explained. “And it’s a matter of honor and security for America.”

SOCOM Cuts Armed Overwatch Buy from 75 to 62 Aircraft

March 19, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

A limited budget has led U.S. Special Operations Command to cut back on its planned purchase of Armed Overwatch, the rugged, lightweight, fixed-wing aircraft to support counterterrorism efforts in permissive airspace—at least for the rest of the decade.

The combatant command is trimming its planned purchases over the next five years of the Air Tractor-produced, L3Harris-modified OA-1K from 75 airframes to 62, according to SOCOM’s 2025 budget request released earlier this month. The 13-aircraft reduction marks a 17 percent cut. By year, the cuts are:

2025: From 15 to 12 aircraft

2026: From 17 to 11 aircraft

2027: From 15 to 11 aircraft

The cut in fiscal 2025 is “due to resource constraints,” the budget notes, and a Special Operations Command (SOCOM) spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine the same issue was at play in the ’26 and ’27 decisions. The spokesperson added that the program requirement remains 75 aircraft, but it is not clear if or when SOCOM will be able to buy the additional aircraft.

The program came under scrutiny in late 2023 when the Government Accountability Office released a report suggesting SOCOM failed to fully justify its order for 75 OA-1Ks and urged the Pentagon to slow down the program until SOCOM makes a better business case for so many planes.

At the time, the Pentagon responded that it was analyzing its plans for the Armed Overwatch force structure. But the SOCOM spokesperson said the GAO report did not cause the command to cut its planned purchase.

“SOCOM’s FY25 budget request for Armed Overwatch is a resource-constrained position and is not a response to the GAO’s recommendations on the program,” the spokesperson said. “SOCOM is committed to addressing the GAO’s recommendation to review the Armed Overwatch force structure requirement and will complete that analysis prior to the next President’s budget request.”

While SOCOM is cutting back on its planned purchases, it is also pushing back on full-rate production for the aircraft, which is based on Air Tractor’s AT-802U Sky Warden. Previously, full-rate production was scheduled to begin in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. That timeline has been delayed a year.

Initial operational capability is still projected for the end of fiscal 2026, and full operational capability is still expected by the end of fiscal 2029.

Compared to previous budget projections, SOCOM will save nearly $300 million by buying 13 fewer aircraft—from $1.1 billion to $810.5 million. The average cost per airframe is now set at around $15.4 million, not counting non-recurring costs like initial spares and support equipment. By comparison, the Air Force says a U-28 Draco, one of the aircraft the OA-1K is supposed to replace, costs $16.5 million each.

Air Force and SOCOM leaders have said they want Armed Overwatch to “collapse the stack”—reducing the number of different intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, light attack, and close air support aircraft it needs for counterinsurgency operations where the airspace is uncontested but the environment can be austere.

“Our methodology for supporting our forces on the ground over the last several decades has really boiled down to the development of what we call an ‘air stack’ over objective areas,” former AFSOC commander and current Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife told Congress in April 2022. “And so you’ll typically have single-role specialized platforms—AC-130s, A-10s, MQ-9s, U-28s—you have a stack of airplanes over an objective, each platform providing a niche capability to the force on the ground. That averages, in terms of cost per flying hour, over $150,000 an hour … to generate kind of the typical stack for that.”

The Air Force pursued the idea of combining many of those capabilities into one aircraft through its Light Attack/Armed Reconnaissance (LAAR) program starting in 2009, but the program eventually fell prey to budget cuts and congressional opposition. SOCOM took the lead in launching Armed Overwatch, which Slife has estimated will cost “something less than $10,000” per flying hour.

The Sky Warden that the OA-1K is based on is typically used as a crop duster and firefighter, but L3Harris is heavily modifying it and making it modular—capable of swapping out different sensors, communications equipment, and combat payloads as needed. SOCOM plans to invest several million dollars every year for the next five years in research and development for the program, “capitalizing on Armed Overwatch’s modular and open architecture to rapidly reconfigure platform capability tailored to support Special Operations ground force needs.”

The first aircraft was scheduled to be delivered in October 2023, but budget documents indicate that has been delayed until June 2024.

In the meantime, the Air Force has started making plans for OA-1K. The service is set to get rid of its small fleets of Textron’s AT-6s and Sierra Nevada Corp.’s A-29s that it bought as part of the LAAR program, and it wants to start retiring MC-12 Liberty aircraft in fiscal 2025. It also selected Will Rogers Air National Guard Base, Okla., to host the formal training unit for the OA-1K.

Editor’s Note: This story was updated March 20 to clarify the cost per airframe without non-recurring costs.

While USSF Budget Dips, Funds for New Nuclear Command and Control Satellites Jump

March 18, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force is ramping up its plans to develop and deploy a new nuclear command, control, and communications satellite constellation, even as other parts of its budget take a hit.

In the fiscal 2025 budget request released earlier this month, the service asked for nearly $1.05 billion for research, development, test, and evaluation of its Evolved Strategic SATCOM (ESS) program—a hefty $413 million increase over its 2024 request even as the Space Force’s RDT&E budget overall took a $500 million hit.

As things stand, ESS is poised to account for 5.6 percent of the entire research and development budget, and 3.6 percent of the entire Space Force budget.

ESS, in development for several years now, is envisioned as the successor to the Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) Satellite System. The goal, according to Space Systems Command, is to provide “strategic, secure and jam-resistant, survivable communications for ground, sea, and air assets around the world” starting in fiscal 2032, the stated “strategic need” deadline.

Hitting that deadline will be key as the U.S. military undergoes a massive nuclear modernization effort. The Air Force wants to start fielding its new B-21 bomber in the mid-2020s, followed by a new Long-Range Standoff missile and the new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile before 2030. The Navy is working on new Columbia-class nuclear submarines to field by the early 2030s, and the entire NC3 enterprise is undergoing an upgrade. All told, it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

ESS will be responsible for connecting the President and combatant commanders with strategic forces in the field, and the Space Force wants to invest heavily over the rest of the 2020s. In research and development alone, budget documents indicate a five-year spending plan of $5.11 billion.

USSF has already taken key steps on the program, awarding prototype demonstration agreements for both the space and ground segments. In 2020, Boeing and Northrop Grumman got contracts to build prototype satellites, and in May 2023, teams led by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon were tapped to work on the ground segment called GRIFFON (Ground Resilient Integration & Framework for Operational NC3).

The Space Force has not officially declared yet how many satellites will make up the ESS constellation, but its budget documents note plans to produce four space vehicles “in order to achieve IOC by 2032 and continuing through FOC.” AEHF has six satellites.

The Advanced Extremely High Frequency System (AEHF) is a joint service satellite communications system that provides survivable, global, secure, protected, and jam-resistant communications for high-priority military ground, sea and air assets. USAF photo illustration.

Fiscal 2025 is shaping up to be a key year in the program’s development. Budget documents describe a plan to award a final contract for both the satellites and ground segment in the second quarter of the year.

“ESS will finalize source selection, award the Space Development and Production contract, conduct a delta Preliminary Design Review (PDR), and establish a program baseline through an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR),” the documents state. “Simultaneously, numerous Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) activities will begin, covering essential engineering and process documents. Long lead procurement of hardware and software for SV01-SV02, including design documents and non-deliverables, will also commence.”

A critical design review of the satellites is scheduled for FY26.

On the ground, the Space Force wants to use 2025 to “further mature a development, security, and operations (DevSecOps) pipeline for software vendors to test their applications on the ground framework to conduct end-to-end integration testing, … conduct early integration testing at government sites, develop user agreements with operational sites outlining deliveries and key milestones to ensure system functionality by FY 2029, prior to the first ESS space launch.”

Media reports have indicated the program could be worth $8 billion all told, but the Space Force’s procurement budget has no funds for ESS yet.