Space Industry Experts Think DOD Can Help Spur More Private Investment

Space Industry Experts Think DOD Can Help Spur More Private Investment

Nov. 22, 2021 | By Amanda Miller

Increased Pentagon spending on commercial space technology can prompt private investors to invest more, continuing record investment in the U.S. space sector, according 232 experts attending the State of the Space Industrial Base 2021 Workshop. They cited sustaining investors’ confidence as a “major concern” requiring “urgent action.”

The report “State of the Space Industrial Base 2021: Infrastructure and Services for Economic Growth and National Security,” written by five defense leaders, draws its conclusions from the working sessions of the workshop attendees.

Brought together by NewSpace New Mexico, the group’s goal was to advise on how to “nurture and grow a healthy space industrial base and national security innovation base.” The five authors—Space Force Brig. Gen. John M. Olson, mobilization assistant to the Chief of Space Operations; Space Force Col. Eric J. Felt, director of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate; Joel B. Mozer, chief scientist of the Space Force’s Space Operations Command; Steven J. Butow, the Defense Innovation Unit’s space portfolio director; and Thomas Cooley, chief scientist in the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate—released the conclusions Nov 18.

The group also called on the Defense Department to more than double the share of its overall acquisition budget used to acquire commercial services, seeking an increase from “single digit percentages” to 20 percent.

The report summarizes the “collective voice” of all 232 experts, many of whom work for space companies. Other urgent concerns include “adequate resourcing to accelerate innovation” and “attention to brittle supply chains.” They also want DOD to provide vendors clearer “strategic guidance.”

U.S. space companies are “the subject of intense predation” of intellectual property by foreign investors, the report said. A mandate in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act to report on space competition with China is “comprehensive,” but the White House should further consider these matters as part of strategic “supply chain planning.”

The report highlights “major opportunities,” such as the military’s interest in joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) as well as developments in cislunar space. Its recommendations include:

  • Spur investment beyond launch. Private investment in commercial space is concentrated in launch services, and participants say “too little capital [is] flowing into other verticals ready for investment.” The authors seek “defense and intelligence contracts significant enough to sustain current private investment levels” as necessary to “secure American leadership” in commercial space. Private investment in space infrastructure alone reached $4.5 billion in the second quarter of 2021, a record, but DOD could build on that and help attract even more private money for in-space servicing, mobility, and logistics firms.
  • Start building the cislunar ‘space superhighway.’ Transportation and communications infrastructures “are fundamental antecedents to much broader economic activity,” the report said. “Although the nation is contemplating a multi-trillion, once-in-a-generation infrastructure plan to ‘win the future,’ no part of it addresses the emerging in-space infrastructure or China’s desire to surpass the U.S. in building it.”
  • Adopt a hybrid military-civil architecture for JADC2. A hybrid architecture can “harness commercial capabilities … to enhance the resilience” of DOD’s satellite communications architecture, the report said. 
  • Buy more commercial services. Policies, budget processes, and the “lack of procurement innovation incentives” stand in the way of “more agile and rapid innovation” across the DOD in “various technology valleys of death,” the authors said. Workshop participants judged that such a commitment “requires policy and incentives that drive toward a goal of 20 [percent] non-traditional commercial service acquisitions.”
‘The Clock Is Ticking’ as Ukraine Seeks Air Defense Aid

‘The Clock Is Ticking’ as Ukraine Seeks Air Defense Aid

Nov. 22, 2021 | By Abraham Mahshie

With some 90,000 Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border and holding large-scale military exercises in the area, worries are growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a possible invasion or other military actions against Ukraine. Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov visited Washington Nov. 18-19 seeking military assistance, but some fear a mismatch between the urgent situation and the slow pace of major international arms sales.

Russia’s joint exercises with Belarus included a presence northeast of Kyiv, which makes this situation different from prior mobilizations, including Russia’s 2014 invasion of southeastern Ukraine, said a senior Senate staffer, who asked not to be named. That southern region is still held by Russian-backed separatists, fueling a low-intensity conflict that persists in violation of the Minsk agreement that ended the invasion.

What’s different this time, the staffer said, is that in 2014, Putin “didn’t really use airpower because he was looking for some deniability.” This time, however, Putin has set up a different course of action. “If he goes this big, he’s not going to care about deniability,” the staffer said.

As winter approaches, the muddy fields, lakes, and rivers of Eastern Ukraine are freezing over, so mechanized vehicles and close air support left at the border after Russia’s exercises will have an easier route to travel.

To counter that, Ukraine will need counter-air, counter-artillery, and anti-tank weapons, said the staffer, who met with Reznikov during his recent visit to Washington.

“We did have a discussion about the counter-air,” the staffer said, but the minister seemed to be after “the Patriot-size stuff,” while short-term needs might be greater. “I would be worried about the next two months and getting everything we can that can make a difference,” the staffer said.

Getting approval to sell a complex air defense system such as the Patriot will take too long, he said, when the U.S. or NATO partners can offer man-portable air-defense systems such as the Stinger, which is still effective against slower-moving aircraft.

Marine Corps Lt. Col. Anton T. Semelroth, a Pentagon spokesperson, said in a written statement that U.S. assistance to Ukraine is ongoing. Investment reached $400 million this year and a total $2.5 billion since 2014. Another $300 million is anticipated in the 2022 National Defense Authorization bill, which is expected to clear the senate in early December.

“The United States has previously announced security assistance support in these domains,” Semelroth wrote, citing “air surveillance radars, counter-artillery radars, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and armed patrol boats.”

Asked by Air Force Magazine what systems he is seeking from the U.S., Reznikov said only that he sought air and naval defenses.

The Threat from Belarus

Close relations between Putin and Belarusian strongman Vicktor Lukashenko gives Russia a useful partner in the neighborhood. Belarus’ open invitation to Middle Eastern migrants to travel through it on tourist visas fueled a migrant a crisis earlier this month on the border with Poland involving tens of thousands of Polish and Lithuanian troops.

Wojciech Lorenz, defense analyst for the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said this was a new type of hybrid warfare and should be seen as a warning to Europe that it should cease assisting Ukraine.

Lorenz said Belarusian forces provoked Europeans on the border, using lasers to temporarily blind security patrols, firing stun grenades, and shooting blanks into the air. The psychological campaign seems designed to provoke a response which could then be used by Russia to suggest that NATO is planning to invade Belarus.

“We have seen major escalation,” Lorenz said in a phone interview from Warsaw. “By increasing the credibility of escalation against Poland, the Baltic States, and NATO through Belarus, they wanted to send a signal: ‘Stay away, because you will have military escalation on your borders, so do not offer any support to Ukraine.’”

Lorenz said Russia could be trying to press Ukraine to reenter negotiations and to seek autonomy for the breakaway states of Donetsk and Luhansk. “Of course, because [the two states] would be controlled by Russia, with their special status in this federalized Ukraine, they would just block any decision that is not in Russia’s interests,” Lorenz said.

Lithuanian military attaché Brig. Gen. Modestas Petrauskas does not believe the migrant crisis poses a military threat to Europe, but he told Air Force Magazine that it has the potential to destabilize the region.

“We are one of the most tense regions in the entire NATO [area of responsibility], the eastern flank,” he explained. “Anything which can have a potential of escalation or misunderstanding is sort of impacting the overall security situation.”

The Senate staffer likewise does not believe the Belarus migrant crisis is of military concern but said it does divert Ukraine’s attention from the Russian troops to its east.

“I don’t see that as a valid threat,” the staffer said. “What I do see is Belarus is a threat from the north to Ukraine and the pretext being used to put troops there.”

“The clock is ticking,” he said. “If we’re going to do something, that decision needs to be made and move out.”

US Has ‘a Lot of Catching Up to Do’ in Hypersonics, Space Force’s No. 2 Says

US Has ‘a Lot of Catching Up to Do’ in Hypersonics, Space Force’s No. 2 Says

Nov. 22, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

One day after the Space Force’s second in command warned that the U.S. is “not as advanced as the Chinese or the Russians in terms of hypersonic programs,” a media report indicated that China’s likely test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon this summer included an added capability.

Financial Times, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter, reported Nov. 21 that in July, China launched a hypersonic glide vehicle into space, part of a suspected orbital bombardment system that now is said to have fired a missile while flying at least five times the speed of sound.

The ability to fire a projectile off a supersonic platform is “a capability no country has previously demonstrated,” Financial Times reported. The Wall Street Journal subsequently reported the news as well.

The Defense Department has yet to comment on the latest development, though Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley and Vice Chairman Gen. John E. Hyten have both previously confirmed the nuclear-capable hypersonic test—Hyten said such a weapon looks like a “first-use” weapons in a nuclear scenario.

Space Force Gen. David D. Thompson, vice chief of space operations, spoke at the Halifax International Security Forum on Nov. 20, just before the latest reporting on the additional projectile. But when asked about the hypersonic test more broadly, he noted that the U.S. has “a lot of catching up to do very quickly.”

“The Chinese have had an incredibly aggressive hypersonic program for several years,” Thompson added. “And I agree with Gen. Hyten—it’s a very concerning development. I don’t know if it’s a first-use weapon. I will tell you, it greatly complicates the strategic warning problem.”

Thompson explained the challenges to the strategic warning system by likening the Chinese hypersonic missile to a “magic snowball.”

Ballistic missiles follow predictable trajectories, allowing defense systems to track them more easily. By comparison, a hypersonic missile “changes that game entirely,” Thompson said. Using the example of a snowball fight, he explained that with a hypersonic missile, “I can throw that snowball in this direction, I can throw it in that direction, I can throw it in this direction—and it will maneuver back and it’ll hit you. In fact, it might even fly by you, turn around, and hit you in the back of the head. That’s what a hypersonic glide vehicle does. Combine that with a fractional orbital bombardment system, and I’m going to throw the snowball that way, and it’s going to go around the world, and it’s going to come hit you in the back of the head.”

Such a capability makes the world a “much more complicated place,” Thompson said, especially as the Pentagon works to catch up.

Gillian Bussey, director of DOD’s Joint Hypersonics Transition Office, has said the Army will field the military’s first hypersonic weapon in a “year or two.”

Fighter Mission Capable Rates Fell in 2021

Fighter Mission Capable Rates Fell in 2021

Nov. 22, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Mission capable rates dropped in 2021 for every Air Force fighter type except the A-10, reversing progress in 2020, according to data released to Air Force Magazine.

“Mission capable” rates are a common measure of readiness and relate to an aircraft’s ability to perform at least one of its core missions; for example, the multirole F-16 is tasked for air-to-air combat, ground attack, or suppression of enemy air defenses. By contrast, “full mission capable” refers to an aircraft that is ready to perform all of its assigned missions. Full mission capable rates were not provided.

The Air Force aims for MC rates between 75 percent and 80 percent on most aircraft, but none stood at that level as fiscal 2021 ended.

The declines are noteworthy even though the Air Force has sought to de-emphasize the rates and instead focus on unit readiness as a more accurate way to evaluate combat capability. Also noteworthy is that 2020’s gains were achieved at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when greater restrictions were placed on the physical proximity of workers in backshops and depots.

The F-35A rate declined from 76.07 percent to 68.8 percent from 2020 to 2021 as an increasing number of F-35s came due for their first big engine overhauls. A shortage of engines has grounded about 40 F-35As over the past year, a level that the F-35 Joint Program Office predicts could hold for several years.

Still, the F-35A mission capable rate remained above that of 2019, when it was just 61.6 percent.

With operating costs disappointingly high, the Air Force has throttled back on new F-35A purchases until the more capable Block 4 version is ready and operating costs can be brought down to a more sustainable level. Congress has gone along, with members recognizing that adding airframes has only exacerbated a shortage of parts and made it harder to achieve objective mission capable rates.    

The next biggest drop struck the F-15E fleet, which saw MC rates fall three percentage points, from 69.21 percent in fiscal 2021 to 66.24 percent. The decline continued a trend; in fiscal 2019, the Eagle’s MC rate was 71.29 percent.

The F-15C and D rates also fell. The C model declined to 69.48 percent from 71.93 percent, and the D model fell from 70.52 percent to 68.56 percent. As with the E model, the C and D declines continued a trend dating to 2019, when rates were in the 70s. The Air Force’s F-15C fleet is beyond its planned service life, and the jet is encumbered with numerous operating restrictions and “vanishing vendor” parts shortages.   

The F-16C and D fleet similarly shed percentage points: The C model turned in an MC rate of 71.53 percent in fiscal 2021, down from 73.9 percent in fiscal ’20. The D model came in at 69.32 percent, down from 72.11 percent. Both aircraft were above 70 percent in fiscal 2019.

The stealthy F-22 continued to hover at just over 50 percent, reflecting the fleet’s relatively small size and numerous challenges. The Air Force said the rate was just 50.81 percent in 2021, about one percentage point down from 2020, and just about equal to 2019, when it was at 50.57 percent. The Air Force has chalked up low F-22 MC rates in recent years to challenges caring for the jet’s low observable systems as well as continuing repercussions from severe damage inflicted on about 10 percent of the fleet by Hurricane Michael in 2018. Parts obsolescence is also an issue.

The venerable A-10s are the healthiest, if least capable, jets in the fighter force. Perhaps benefitting from an ongoing re-winging program, the A-10 MC rate ticked up from 71.2 percent in fiscal 2020 to 72.54 percent in fiscal 2021. The A-10 is generally less sophisticated than the other fighters, with fewer sensor systems, and its maintainers are generally more experienced, as most Warthogs belong to the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve.

When Jim Mattis was Defense Secretary early in the Trump administration, he ordered the Air Force and Navy to raise MC rates for fighter aircraft to 80 percent. The Air Force never achieved that goal, saying at the time that MC rates were not a meaningful indicator of overall readiness for war. A frontline deployed unit typically is close to 100 percent mission capable because parts are prioritized for such units, while squadrons recently returned from deployments can see MC rates decline rapidly.

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 8:12 p.m. Nov. 22 with the correct F-15D rates.

Hyten Reflects on ‘Enormous Progress’ as Grady’s Confirmation Hearing is Set

Hyten Reflects on ‘Enormous Progress’ as Grady’s Confirmation Hearing is Set

Nov. 22, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The position of Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is officially vacant. Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten retired Nov. 19, and Navy Adm. Christopher W. Grady awaits his Senate confirmation hearing.

Hyten’s final departure from the Pentagon as the military’s No. 2 officer, posted to social media by the Joint Staff on Nov. 18, preceded a ceremony the following day at Joint Base Andrews, Md., during which Hyten reflected on the changes he had seen over the course of his four decades in uniform, from the early post-Vietnam years to the current era of strategic competition.

“For the last 40 years, we’ve made enormous progress to ensure the U.S. military is the most trusted and credible, apolitical institution in the United States of America and the most lethal military the world has ever seen,” Hyten said. “And now, we have to make sure it stays that way for the next 40 years and beyond.”

Grady’s confirmation hearing has been scheduled for Dec. 2, according to the Senate Armed Services Committee calendar. Grady has led the Navy’s Fleet Forces Command/U.S. Naval Forces Northern Command since May 2018. He has also held the duties of commander for U.S. Naval Forces Strategic Command and U.S. Strategic Command Joint Force Maritime Component since February 2019.

President Joe Biden announced Grady’s nomination Nov. 1, virtually guaranteeing some sort of gap after Hyten’s retirement—the full Senate has taken at least a month to confirm every Chairman and Vice Chairman in the past decade.

After the Dec. 2 confirmation hearing, Grady’s nomination will proceed to the full Senate for a vote. But while leading lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have previously pledged to act quickly to minimize any vacancy, senators can place procedural “holds” on nominees, which slow down the process—such holds delayed Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s appointment for roughly a month.

On top of that, the Senate’s end-of-the-year calendar has grown increasingly crowded. Already, passage of the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act has been pushed back weeks and is still not finished; the government is operating under a continuing resolution that will expire in early December; and Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said he wants to pass President Joe Biden’s social spending bill, called Build Back Better, by Christmas. 

Congress is currently in recess for the Thanksgiving holiday and returns to session Nov. 29. Then the Senate is scheduled to be in session only two more weeks before recessing again until 2022, but that could very well change.

During a press briefing Oct. 28, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby called any sort of gap in the Vice Chairman role “not optimal” but noted that the Joint Staff had worked through such situations before. By law, there is no procedure for naming an “acting” vice chairman, but some of Hyten’s roles and responsibilities can be delegated on an “acting” basis, Kirby added.

Air Force Magazine queried the Joint Staff for clarification on how Hyten’s duties were being delegated and had yet to receive a reply.

One Pilot Dies, Two Injured in T-38 Crash at Laughlin

One Pilot Dies, Two Injured in T-38 Crash at Laughlin

Nov. 20, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

One pilot was killed and two more were injured during an incident involving two T-38 trainer jets at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas, on Nov. 19, the 47th Flying Training Wing announced.

Details of the incident have not been disclosed, but a release from the 47th FTW indicated that it occurred at 10 a.m. local time on the base’s runway. 

One of the pilots is in critical condition and was evacuated by air to Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio. The other was transported to Val Verde Regional Medical Center in Del Rio, Texas, treated, and released, the wing said in a statement.

“Losing teammates is unbelievably painful and it is with a heavy heart I express my sincere condolences,” Col. Craig D. Prather, 47th Flying Training Wing commander, said in a release. “Our hearts, thoughts, and prayers are with our pilots involved in this mishap and their families.” 

On Nov. 21, the Air Force identified the pilot who died as 2nd Lt. Anthony D. Wentz, 23, a student pilot in the 47th FTW from Falcon, Colo. No other pilots were identified.

The T-38 is the Air Force’s supersonic trainer, used to teach pilots supersonic techniques, aerobatics, formation, night and instrument flying, and cross-country/low-level navigation. The cockpit has two seats—it is unclear whether both T-38s involved in the Nov. 19 incident had two pilots.

This marks the second fatal incident this year involving the T-38C. In February, an Air Force instructor and Japanese student were killed at Dannelly Field near Montgomery, Ala. An investigation later determined that both pilots made errors during the descent that led to the crash. 

Also in February, a pilot was faulted for relying on a “seat of the pants feel” that led to a crash involving a T-38 at Sacramento Mather Airport, Calif. Prior to those two incidents, there hadn’t been an accident involving the T-38 since 2019.

Kendall Connects Interpersonal Violence, Disparity Report Findings to Issue of Suicide

Kendall Connects Interpersonal Violence, Disparity Report Findings to Issue of Suicide

Nov. 19, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The Department of the Air Force’s recently released reports on interpersonal violence and on gender, race, and ethnic disparities are linked to the issue of suicide in the military, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said in a Facebook town hall Nov. 18.

These recent reports have revealed data showing stark differences in promotions, discipline, trust in leadership, and other areas between white male service members and women and racial and ethnic minorities. They have also included tens of thousands of Airmen, Guardians, and civilians within the DAF reporting some action that resulted “in psychological or physical harm or that detracts from a culture of dignity and respect.” 

Taken together, these issues contribute to one of Kendall’s most pressing concerns, he said.

“I want to make a connection between these two reports, in a way, and the other thing that has been happening in the force that keeps me awake at night,” Kendall said. “It’s the number of suicides we have. … And I think every one of these is in some way an institutional failure. It’s a leadership job to make sure people are educated about the issues they face. It’s a leadership job to make sure that people understand that when they do have a problem, that they can get help and that it’s OK to do that.”

The interpersonal violence survey, which asked respondents about 81 different behaviors identified on a “continuum of harm,” found that many Airmen and Guardians did not report incidents because they didn’t believe it was serious enough or they did not think their leaders would do anything about it. Kendall called that “disturbing” and pointed to the need for leaders to do better in supporting their troops, whether they’re facing disparity or interpersonal violence.

“If you take the case of suicide, for example, there’s the individual who is involved, and there are the people that know him and are around him and see him often and have an opportunity to intervene and help him or her. That’s something that the whole chain of command has to emphasize all the time,” Kendall said. “Similarly for the disparity, any inequities that we see, we have to act on, we have to deal with them. Interpersonal violence, in the study, often takes the form of bullying or hazing. It’s not physical violence. It’s emotional damages. It’s violence that’s done to someone’s psyche, to their mental health, as opposed to their physical health, and it certainly has implications for their health overall.”

Indeed, the survey classified actions like spreading workplace rumors and verbal harassment as interpersonal violence. And actions like those were often not reported, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said. But that speaks to a broader issue that “our Airmen and Guardians felt that if they did report, nothing would happen,” Brown said. “And maybe from negative past experience or with those that they serve with, they’ve seen examples where we, as a command or leadership, didn’t respond with the right processes.”

By taking a more expansive look at interpersonal violence, the Air Force hopes to gain a better understanding of how to monitor and deal with issues that could be “precursors” to other forms of violence, Undersecretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones added.

“The more that we know, the better prepared we’re going to be to be able to address these things,” said Ortiz Jones. “That’s why one of the things we’re looking at as it relates to that is better understanding activities, for example, like grooming and stalking—things that we don’t necessarily talk as much about … but as best we can understand some of these kinds of behaviors that indicate or are precursors, rather, to other forms of interpersonal violence, the best we’ll be able to respond, prevent those things.”

If certain minority groups lack trust in commanders to solve issues, especially of interpersonal violence, they will be more vulnerable and isolated, Ortiz Jones said. And fixing that trust in leaders to encourage reporting will require a comprehensive effort, Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond said.

“It isn’t one leader. … It’s leadership at all levels. It’s leadership from frontline supervisors all the way up through the leadership of the service that you see here on the screen,” Raymond said. “So to call on the leaders would be to call on everybody in the leadership roles that you’re in to make sure that we’re providing an environment that is conducive for folks to come to work and do the mission that is so critical, and to do it in a way that they feel empowered and safe.”

“I would tell every one of our Airmen and Guardians, … ‘Don’t stop there,’” Bass said. “Gen. Raymond just talked about leaders at every level, and that holds all of us. Every leader has a leader above them. We have chains of command.”

Should Airmen and Guardians report interpersonal violence only to be dismissed by their direct leadership, Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass said they should continue to press the issue.

Ukraine Requests New Defense Assistance Amid Increased Tensions With Russia

Ukraine Requests New Defense Assistance Amid Increased Tensions With Russia

Nov. 19, 2021 | By Abraham Mahshie

Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov said Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III promised his “unwavering” support to deter Russian aggression as border tension builds. Reznikov also confirmed Nov. 19 that Ukraine requested additional U.S. foreign military sales for its air and naval defenses.

“We have to defend our air and sea,” the defense minister said at a press conference at the Embassy of Ukraine in Washington, D.C.

Reznikov said Russia is using hybrid warfare, including helping Belarus push migrants across the European border, to destabilize the region and distract Eastern European NATO members Lithuania and Poland. Russia also holds Ukraine’s energy security hostage with the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will allow Russia to circumvent Ukraine and cut off gas access, if it chooses.

The new Ukrainian Defense Minister met with Austin for the first time at the Pentagon Nov. 18 during yet another tense period in Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia. This time, Russia’s unexplained actions could spell imminent invasion, prompting Reznikov’s last-minute trip to Washington just a month after Austin visited Kyiv. It is estimated that Russia has amassed up to 90,000 troops on Ukraine’s eastern border near the Ukrainian capital.

“We have a well-developed and a powerful land force. The need is an air defense and missile defense,” Reznikov said.

The defense minister said the U.S. Congress and Defense Department have voiced their backing of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and that a DOD team will travel to Ukraine to assess the country’s needs.

“I got a very strong position from Secretary Austin that they will be shoulder and shoulder with us, Ukraine,” Reznikov said in response to a question from Air Force Magazine.

The defense minister, nonetheless, acknowledged that arms sales require State Department and congressional approval.

“Not only Secretary Austin would be deciding—it’s also a political decision,” he added.

A State Department spokesperson declined to confirm to Air Force Magazine on Nov. 19 that such a letter of intent had been received from Ukraine but provided a list of the $2.5 billion in training and equipment assistance provided to Ukraine since 2014.

The assistance includes tactical unmanned aerial vehicles, satellite imagery and analysis support, counter-battery radars, and night vision devices and thermal scopes, which are used by front-line troops defending against Russian-backed separatists and elite Russian sniper units.

At the Pentagon on Nov. 18, Austin voiced his support to Ukraine, echoing a message President Joe Biden conveyed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an August visit to Washington.

“Our support for Ukraine’s self-defense, sovereignty, and territorial integrity is unwavering,” Austin said. “We are monitoring closely recent Russian military movements near your borders, and we’ve made clear our concerns about Russia’s destabilizing activities and our desire for more transparency.”

A History of Support

Reznikov said in his comments at the Ukrainian Embassy that more than $200 million in annual assistance from the United States has followed the same pattern: Russian aggression matched by U.S. capabilities.

First, he said Russia posed a land threat with its tanks on the southeastern border in the Donbas region, where a low-intensity conflict continues with Russian-backed separatists. The U.S. response was to provide Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Russia then intercepted sensitive military communications, and the U.S. provided high-tech communications equipment. In 2020, Russia’s rapidly expanding Black Sea navy fleet began incursions into Ukrainian territorial waters, and the United States provided Mark VI and Island-class patrol boats.

Now, Russia is positioning attack helicopters and fighter jets near the border to complement its robust anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems in place in occupied Crimea. That’s why the U.S. team will travel to Ukraine to assess its defense needs.

The defense minister declined to describe the specific foreign military sales requests made but confirmed that a letter had been conveyed to the State Department.

Reznikov also said a frank discussion with Austin at the Pentagon confirmed intelligence that Russia was building up troops for exercises and leaving behind military hardware and weaponry for future use.

The defense minister also said he was confident the U.S. would stand with Ukraine to deter a Russian invasion.

“The main idea is that to stop aggression, we need to show clearly that the cost will be too high,” he said, noting that he previously spent two years as a negotiator with Russia and he knows that members of the Russian government are pragmatic.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley spoke to his own Ukrainian counterpart, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lt. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, after the Pentagon meeting Nov. 18.

“We’re going to ensure this communication on a regular basis,” Reznikov said of that meeting.

Biden has long pressed Ukraine to crack down on corruption and increase transparency in its institutions. The defense minister took pains to assure the U.S. that Ukraine has made strides in reforming its defense apparatus and coordination between the president, parliament, and Ministry of Defense.

“My personal task is to ensure the implementation of comprehensive reforms for the development of the armed forces,” Reznikov said, citing reforms in personnel management, acquisitions, and social issues, including housing and compensation of service members.

Reznikov deflected a question about NATO entry, saying path to entry was a political decision that depended on all 30 members of the alliance and that such a decision was not on the NATO agenda.

During his August visit to Washington, Zelensky told Biden that Russia’s aggression was an urgent threat. Ukraine and the U.S. signed a defense strategic framework, but at a Mount Vernon event Aug. 31, Zelensky told Air Force Magazine the framework was too vague.

“This is just the direction, the framework,” he added. “I need more substance.”

Reznikov said Nov. 19: “My task today is to provide substance to this agreement and to implement its provisions.”

Retire the MQ-9 by 2035? Not So Fast, Defense Analysts Argue

Retire the MQ-9 by 2035? Not So Fast, Defense Analysts Argue

Nov. 19, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force needs to reconsider its plans to retire the MQ-9 Reaper by 2035, given the drone’s capabilities and potential uses when measured against financial constraints and mission demands, defense analysts from four different think tanks argued Nov. 19. 

Experts from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, RAND Corp., the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Hudson Institute, speaking at a virtual event, all agreed that the MQ-9’s useful life is far from over, even as the Air Force proceeds with modernization plans for continued divestment in the platform.

“From a cost perspective, for me, this is kind of a slam dunk,” said Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. “If you want to look to retire platforms in the Air Force inventory, I can give you a list of things you ought to start looking at, and [the MQ-9] is not on that list.”

The Air Force has announced some upgrades for the MQ-9 in the coming years. But ultimately, the plan is still to start retiring the fleet, which is the largest fleet of remotely piloted aircraft in the USAF’s inventory, starting in 2030 and finishing by 2035. 

The reasons for that, argued retired Maj. Gen. Lawrence A. Stutzriem, director of research at AFA’s Mitchell Institute, are two competing factors—the Air Force’s need for modernization and the limits of the budget.

Right now, the service is pursuing or procuring new fighters, bombers, tankers, and intercontinental ballistic missiles, in addition to its drone fleets. All of those efforts will cost billions, but the Air Force’s budget continues to lag behind the other services, and the Pentagon’s overall budget is not expected to grow significantly in the coming years.

With limited funds and numerous priorities, Air Force leaders have adopted a strategy of asking to retire older “legacy” platforms to free up money for newer programs. The MQ-9 has been caught up in that push, Stutzriem said, which is a mistake.

“Yes, retiring the Reaper frees up some money,” said Stutzriem, who wrote a policy paper on the MQ-9 for the Mitchell Institute. “But from a cost per effect … what you can do with this for the lowest cost per flying hour is extraordinary.”

The argument for moving on from the MQ-9, observers have noted, is its lack of survivability in contested environments. Such a deficiency seemingly puts it at odds with the Air Force’s need to modernize to keep pace with China.

But such a mindset ignores current realities, both Harrison and Stutzriem said—demand for the MQ-9’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities across combatant commands remains strong.

“There is an insatiable demand for ISR right now,” Harrison said. “And that is only going to continue to increase in the future. So the Air Force has actually got to be asking itself, how is it going to meet that demand or even try to meet some fraction of that demand? If you’re in a budget-constrained environment, you’ve got to be looking at cost-effective ways of meeting that demand out into the future. We’re talking steady state, peacetime demand that is a driver of this right now. It’s not just in CENTCOM, it’s in INDOPACOM. It’s in SOUTHCOM. It’s in AFRICOM. It’s all over.”

And even beyond the current demand for ISR in environments where the Reaper can perform its duties, the MQ-9 could take on a broad range of new missions with relatively affordable investments and upgrades, Stutzriem argued, including:

  • Wide area surveillance in regions of strategic competition.
  • Air and missile defense.
  • Maritime and littoral operations.
  • Communications relays.
  • Arctic domain awareness.
  • Cruise missile defense of the homeland.
  • Defense support of civil authorities.

In particular, the MQ-9 has more to offer than some think in a potential conflict with China, said Bryan Clark, director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute. While it won’t be flying over “downtown Beijing,” as Stutzriem noted, it can operate in the Indo-Pacific region to monitor and warn of incoming threats, going places where the U.S. may be reluctant to send manned platforms such as the Air Force’s E-3 AWACS or the Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye.

“The MQ-9 can provide you that passive surveillance platform to give you a network that provides the [airborne early warning] capability we need in that long gap that’s going to emerge between the Chinese coast and the places where E-3s and E-2s can operate,” Clark said. “That airborne early warning capability could be sufficient to give you the warning you need of an incoming missile attack or an incoming bomber attack.”

The key to enabling these new uses is innovation, Stutzriem said, citing “that principle of strategies that you can use old things, current things, in powerfully new ways if you’re creative about it.” And the best way to go about finding creative solutions, argued Caitlin Lee, associate director of the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center at RAND, is to trust the Airmen currently flying the Reaper to adapt.

“They’re in the best position to do this. They’re first movers, early adopters, and they are an essential source of bottom-up innovation in the service,” Lee said. “So the Air Force leadership needs to do what’s necessary here, which is support continuing to produce and fly the Reaper, and also support the people who fly these airframes every day in combat, and who are just absolutely critical for any kind of unmanned innovation going forward.”