Raymond Cancels Trip After COVID-19 Contact

Dec. 3, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond has canceled a trip to California this weekend after having close contact with multiple individuals who tested positive for COVID-19, the Space Force confirmed Dec. 3.

Raymond was scheduled to appear at the Reagan National Defense Forum, hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley, Calif., to participate in a panel discussion on the Space Force and the “new space economy.” Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David D. Thompson will go in his place, Space Force spokesperson Lynn Kirby told Air Force Magazine.

“Gen. Raymond recently came in close contact with multiple individuals who just tested positive for COVID-19,” Kirby said in a statement. “Out of an abundance of caution and following the advice of medical professionals, he will no longer travel to the Reagan National Defense Forum. … Gen. Raymond has been tested within the last 24 hours, and we have no positive results to report at this time. He is fully vaccinated and has received the booster.”

Kirby declined to say whether Raymond is quarantining after the exposure. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines state that close contacts of a COVID-19 case do not need to quarantine if they are fully vaccinated unless they show symptoms. Regardless, they should be tested and wear a mask indoors in public.

Raymond’s announcement comes on the heels of the announcement that Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau, has tested positive for the virus this week and is currently self-isolating.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. is also scheduled to appear at the Reagan National Defense Forum, for a panel discussion. An Air Force spokesperson confirmed to Air Force Magazine that he is still attending the conference.

Both Raymond and Brown have gone through COVID scares before—in October 2020, they both had to quarantine for two weeks after Coast Guard Vice Commandant Adm. Charles Ray attended high-level meetings at the Pentagon and subsequently tested positive. Later that month, Thompson, the No. 2 officer in the Space Force, tested positive. At that time, Raymond did not quarantine.

23,000 Airmen and Guardians Unvaccinated as Deadline for Guard and Reserve Passes

Dec. 3, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

More than 23,000 Airmen and Guardians across the Total Force remained unvaccinated against COVID-19 as the deadline for the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve passed Dec. 2.

Out of more than 500,000 Total Force members, 95.3 percent are at least partially vaccinated against the novel coronavirus, according to data released Dec. 3 by the Department of the Air Force—the first military department to set a deadline under Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III’s vaccine requirement.

However, that still leaves more than 10,000 Air Force and Space Force service members seeking religious accommodations to the vaccine requirement; 2,323 who have received a medical exemption; 2,515 with an administrative exemption; and 3,233 who are recorded as having verbally refused the vaccine. Another 4,782 are noted as simply having not started the vaccination process.

Even though the reserve component had an extra month after the Active duty’s Nov. 2 deadline, the Guard and Reserve’s vaccination rate still lags behind—96.9 percent of the Active duty were at least partially vaccinated by their deadline, and that figure has now risen to 97.3 percent. Of the approximately 175,000 Guard and Reserve service members, 91.7 percent are at least partially vaccinated.

That’s been a consistent theme of DAF vaccination data released over the past few months, and other services have reported similar trends. The Navy and the Marine Corps’ deadlines for Active-duty service members passed Nov. 28, with 97.2 percent of Sailors and 95 percent of Marines at least partially vaccinated—but only 88 percent of Reserve Sailors and 79 percent of Reserve Marines, who have until Dec. 28, are vaccinated.

The Army’s Active-duty deadline is not until Dec. 15, and its Guard and Reserve components have until June 2022—96 percent of Active-duty Soldiers have started the vaccination process compared to just 69 percent of the reserves.

When the Air Force COVID-19 vaccine deadline for the Active duty first passed, roughly 800 Airmen and Guardians were said to have verbally rejected the vaccine, putting them at risk of punishment or even separation over refusal to follow a lawful order. Now, 1,108 Active-duty members and 2,125 Guard/Reserve members have verbally refused.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has taken a hard line on the issue, saying it is a “pretty straightforward” question as to whether those who refuse the vaccine will be booted from the service. He also questioned whether those who remain unvaccinated, even with an approved exemption, will be deployable. Those who are unvaccinated will not be able to PCS to a new assignment, according to a recently issued Air Force memo.

Meanwhile, as thousands of Airmen and Guardians seek religious exemptions to the vaccine rule, their chances of success appear to be slim. The Air Force has yet to approve a single exemption request, and the Navy and the Marine Corps haven’t granted any, either, according to their most recent data.

Even if not granted, the requests still pose a logistical issue for the department. Its policy calls for a decision within 30 days on requests for religious exemptions to mandatory vaccines from Airmen and Guardians within the continental U.S. But that policy was written with only a few requests at a time in mind, an Air Force spokesperson previously told Air Force Magazine.

When the Active duty’s deadline passed in early November, the Air Force recorded 4,933 religious exemption requests. A month later, that figure had only dropped to 4,754, with an extra 5,804 Guard and Reserve members now added to the pile.

Air Force Looking at Ways to Electrify Airfield Operations

Dec. 3, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force uses billions of gallons of fuel every year, the vast majority of it aviation fuel to power its fleet of aircraft.

But as the Defense Department seeks to increase its energy efficiency and secure its power grids, the department’s biggest consumer of fuel is looking at ways it can transition to other kinds of more sustainable energy, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering, and force protection said Dec. 2.

Lt. Gen. Warren D. Berry, testifying before the House Armed Services readiness subcommittee on operational energy and logistics, told lawmakers that USAF wants to move from diesel fuel to electric batteries or solar cells for several key airfield operations.

“A large part of our support equipment that we use to generate air power [runs on] diesel. … There’s a great capability as we look at leveraging what commercial industry is doing with electrification, to use perhaps photovoltaic cells to provide lighting on the airfield, as we do aircraft operations or munitions loading operations, to electrify loaders that put munitions on aircraft,” Berry said.

Such a move, he argued, isn’t just about trying to be more environmentally friendly. It enables the service to build “resiliency and redundancy” and not be “beholden” to petroleum, oil, and lubricants. Lawmakers and generals at the Dec. 2 hearing noted that diesel fuel refined in different parts of the world does not always meet the same standards and can lead to engine issues.

As a whole, operational energy requirements have become an increasingly important consideration across military planning, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Sam C. Barrett, director of logistics for the Joint Staff. That’s especially true on the “tactical edge” in places such as the Indo-Pacific region, which covers massive swathes of territory.

“From our wargames and exercises, it is apparent that we have a persistent shortage of intra-theater distribution assets,” Barrett testified. “So if we look at the Pacific theatre, and I would dare say it’s not limited to the Pacific, but that is a significant focus—we are getting after that problem set.

“We define that problem set in terms of the last tactical 1,000 miles, because the theater is so big, but we have got to look at solution sets for intra-theater distribution going forward,” he added.

That issue, Barrett said, is linked to another takeaway from recent wargames and exercises: the need to treat operational energy as a global system. The Pentagon is working on an “end-to-end energy … common operating picture” so the Joint Staff can better develop requirements and oversight to ensure solutions.

And it’s not just an inter-service enterprise. Barrett said his final lesson learned from recent wargaming was “the importance of allies, and partners, and industry.”

“It jumps off the page at us on what we would need to do [going] forward,” Barrett said. “So we conducted numerous engagements with our allies and partners. They possess unique capabilities to help us diversify our energy needs in the Pacific theater and other places around the globe.”

House Armed Services Committee/YouTube

Rocket Cargo Ideas Heat Up as One Possible Provider Hits a Snag

Dec. 2, 2021 | By Amanda Miller

Reports of production troubles on the SpaceX rocket that could contend for military cargo deliveries happened to coincide with a different company’s concept receiving an early nod—one that might not require a rocket at all.

Text of an email reportedly by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to employees, first published by the website Space Explored, acknowledged a “production crisis” involving the company’s Raptor engines built to power both its in-development Starship space vehicle and the Super Heavy booster to launch it. SpaceX is still testing both, so Starship hasn’t gone to space yet.

“The consequences for SpaceX if we can not get enough reliable Raptors made is that we then can’t fly Starship,” Musk reportedly wrote.

SpaceX didn’t respond to a query by Air Force Magazine asking to confirm the email contents or to comment on how a “genuine risk of bankruptcy” cited in the email might affect the company’s military business under the National Security Space Launch program. The company hadn’t publicly disputed the email contents by press time.

An illustration depicting the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Rocket Cargo “Vanguard” concept shows a vehicle that resembles Starship, which sources have pointed out could fit the bill in regularly getting cargo aloft because of the reusability of its design. AFRL seeks only to prove whether “rocket-based transportation is viable, affordable, and advantageous for agile global DOD logistics,” according to the solicitation.

In an emailed statement Dec. 2, AFRL’s Rocket Cargo program manager Greg Spanjers said AFRL is “actively seeking to work with the broadest possible industry base.” According to the solicitation, the program is “solely focused on leveraging commercial rocket capabilities as a leased service.”

Meanwhile, the same day, the lab announced at the conclusion of its Hyperspace Challenge another concept that had already caught its eye. California-based startup Varda Space Industries won first place, among 13 startups chosen to compete, in part for its concept answering the contest’s “mission need” of “rocket cargo technology for agile global logistics.”

This year’s Hyperspace Challenge invited 13 startups and 11 universities to compete in pitching ideas for six mission needs. Varda’s idea for rocket cargo: “affordable payload capsules”—borrowing existing NASA designs—“to be deployed from hypersonic vehicles,” according to the news release announcing winners. The company’s focus is on building “the world’s first commercial zero-gravity industrial park.”

In an email to Air Force Magazine, Muk Pandian, who works in business development for Varda Space Industries, said its capsules—designed to return from orbit at Mach 22—could “conceivably be launched from any aircraft.”

The original announcement of the Hyperspace Challenge said the most viable concepts would receive the contest’s $100,000 “in cash prizes … to expedite follow-on activities related to establishing government acquisition contracting opportunities.”

Hyperspace Challenge Winners (Startups):

First place: Varda Space Industries, Torrance, Calif., for “addressing orbital manufacturing and down mass needs with orbital return capsules. Looking to solve pressing rocket cargo challenges, the technology will provide affordable payload capsules to be deployed from hypersonic vehicles,” according to the news release.
Second place: Scout, Alexandria, Va., for “working to provide better in-space situational awareness through their … space-based optical sensor and computer payload system build for collision avoidance and in-space object detection.”
Third place: Neutron Star Systems USA Corp., Cologne, Germany, for “developing superconductor-based electric propulsion systems that deliver greater efficiency, scalability, and operational flexibility for applications that range from satellite refueling and maintenance to debris removal and decommissioning.”

Hyperspace Challenge Winners (Universities):

First place: Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, N.J., for “developing an [artificial intelligence]-driven edge computing router that provides timely mission-critical data and information to terrestrial first responders in emergency environments and has the potential to assist space responders in accurately sensing, detecting, and tracking the growing number of space objects.”
Second place: SUNY Polytechnic Institute, Albany, N.Y., for building “computer brains with a ReRAM Memristor synapse technology created to handle and process information that will assist in the automation of on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing.”
Third place: Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, for exploring “the effects of vibration during micro-gravity production of ZBLAN, a heavy-metal fluoride glass, and the potential telecommunication, sensor, and power-transmission applications for the material.

Space Force Rideshare Launch Will Help Create ‘Freight Train to Space’

Dec. 2, 2021 | By Abraham Mahshie

The Space Test Program (STP)-3 launch scheduled for Dec. 5 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., will prototype new warfighter capabilities, add nuclear launch detection sensors to orbit, and enhance Space Force efforts to improve resiliency in a new “threat-driven paradigm.”

In all, 16 payloads from the Space Force, NASA, the National Nuclear Security Administration, and others will ride on the United Launch Alliance Atlas V 551 vehicle’s longest mission to date, estimated to clock seven hours, 10 minutes at a cost of $1.14 billion. The mission will include combined operational, nuclear detection, and prototype satellites in the areas of optical communication, space domain awareness, and weather.

“Our job is to get the technology ready for eventual transition to operational use,” the Space Test Program division director, Space Force Col. Carlos Quinones, told journalists by phone during a media briefing from Cape Canaveral.

The launch also marks the first in a series of missions known as Long Duration Propulsive ESPA. ESPA refers to expendable launch vehicle secondary payload adapter, a ring-shaped module that carries additional payloads that are both fixed and separable.

“The program is the only recurring propulsive rideshare option to orbit,” said Space Force Col. Heather Bogstie, chief of the Rapid Development Division. “The premise is to use the excess weight offered by launch vehicles to place prototypes on orbit faster and cheaper.”

The vision of LDPE is to increase the frequency of placing rings on orbit and to establish common dimensions and interfaces in order to reconstitute architectures or respond to impending threats faster.

“The rings themselves are what we are actually looking to transition more frequently into operation,” Bogstie said in response to a question from Air Force Magazine. The future program is called Rapid On-orbit Space Technology Evaluation Ring, or ROOSTER.

“By investing in the LDP Flash ROOSTER platform, we can ensure that we’re having that freight train to space, which is basically a cheap ride to space on a recurring basis, and we can easily accommodate reconstituting architectures or answering to threats that we may see in the near future,” she added. “We have these rings on orbit—rather than dispose of them, we would like to be able to use a residual capability of the rings to help provide resiliency to the Space Force architecture.”

Bogstie said the rings may have a use in communications or in on-orbit refueling or other servicing or logistics.

Space Force Col. Erin Gulden, mission director in the Atlas/Delta Division, said future launch capabilities will require innovative new ideas and prototypes, then to incorporate best practices.

“As we transition into the new domain of space warfighting, which is more driven by a threat-driven paradigm, we in the launch enterprise are remaining very appreciative and committed to standing beside our long-standing successful partnerships,” she said of the pending ULA launch. “Our future launch capabilities will require constant evolution.”

US, South Korea Seek to Broaden Alliance, Bolster Indo-Pacific Security

Dec. 2, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

As the Pentagon increasingly pivots its focus to strategic competition with China, the U.S. will look to expand its alliance with South Korea to increase security across the entire Indo-Pacific region, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said Dec. 2 during a visit to the northeastern Asian nation.

Austin, speaking at a press conference after the U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul, said he and his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Suh Wook, went beyond discussions about the threat posed by North Korea to include other regional issues.

“We discussed ways to broaden our alliance’s focus to address issues of regional concern. We shared our assessments of the changing and complex regional security environment, and we emphasized our shared commitment to the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific,” said Austin, according to a transcript of the press conference.

Suh also said they discussed involving third-party nations to promote regional security and “enhance multilateral cooperation.”

“In particular, the [Republic of Korea] and the U.S. agreed on the importance of ROK-U.S.-Japan trilateral security cooperation for responding to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and agreed to explore cooperation means to connect our New Southern Policy and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy,” Suh said through a translator.

Tensions between China and the U.S., and the U.S.’s regional partners, have increased as of late, Austin acknowledged, after recent reports about China’s testing a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile that entered orbit in July. Most recently, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe touched off another controversy when he warned that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would mark “an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance” that would force a response, according to CNBC.

Suh, asked Dec. 2 if South Korea would also come to Taiwan’s defense in case of an invasion, said he and Austin did not speak on threats from specific countries in their discussions but reiterated their focus on ensuring security on a broad scale.

“The Republic of Korea and the United States are a global partnership, and we’re working closely together, cooperating to ensure the peace and stability of the entire world,” Suh said.

What that partnership won’t include, Austin seemed to indicate, is a transfer of nuclear submarine technology akin to the Australia-United Kingdom-U.S. partnership—called AUKUS—in September. While the Dec. 2 meeting included discussions on how to strengthen the South Korean-American alliance, it didn’t include talk of nuclear subs, he said.

Austin also demurred when asked about the possibility of the U.S. bringing tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea to counter China and North Korea. The Pentagon withdrew the last of its nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991 and has resisted calls to redeploy them by some South Korean lawmakers.

“We seek the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and we believe the best way to achieve that goal is a calibrated and practical approach to explore diplomacy with [North Korea], and that’s obviously backed up by a credible deterrent and military readiness,” Austin said. “And so we’ll continue to consult closely with the Republic of Korea and Japan and other allies and partners every step of the way.”

Congress Passes Continuing Resolution to Fund Government Through Feb. 18

Dec. 2, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

Editor’s Note: This story was updated at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Dec. 2 with new information after the House vote and again at 10:30 p.m. with new information after the Senate vote.

Congress passed a continuing resolution shortly before 9:30 p.m. Dec. 2 to keep the government funded through Feb. 18, capping a hectic day on Capitol Hill.

The House voted 221-212, and the Senate voted 69-28, in favor of a new CR, staving off a shutdown that would have gone into effect at the stroke of midnight Dec. 4.

The deal to keep the government open didn’t come together until the morning of Dec. 2, when House Appropriations Committee Chair Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) introduced the Further Extending Government Funding Act, keeping funding at fiscal 2021 levels with a few exceptions, one being an extra $4.3 billion for the Department of Defense’s accounts to pay for the care of Afghan evacuees on military bases.

From there, it was a steady push to get the legislation passed and to the desk of President Joe Biden in a single day. The House passed the bill around 5:30 p.m., sending it to the Senate.

To pass the CR, the Senate had to negotiate a compromise with several Republican Senators who indicated they would oppose moving quickly on the bill unless it stripped funding for Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Had those Senators raised objections and dragged out the process, a government shutdown would have likely occurred.

Instead, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), one of the Senators who has indicated his opposition, said during a Senate floor speech that he would be satisfied with “a simple up-or-down, yes-or-no, majority vote.”

Senate leaders agreed to consider the proposal as an amendment with a majority vote—it was rejected 50-48 along party lines.

From there, the CR itself was quickly approved with bipartisan support.

“I am happy to let the American people know the government remains open,” Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the floor moments after the bill passed.

While the government remains open, however, the new CR does not have the funding the Defense Department needs to start new programs and projects. The Department of the Air Force alone has said a CR blocks 16 new starts, four production increases, and seven military construction projects, in addition to the transfer of satellite communications capabilities from the Army, Navy, and Air Force to the Space Force. Exercises and readiness efforts will be delayed as well.

The Pentagon has become accustomed to working under a CR. According to a Government Accountability Office report, this is the 12th time in 13 years that DOD has started a new fiscal year under a continuing resolution.

But until Congress passes legislation appropriating funds for fiscal 2022, new projects, programs, and efforts will continue to be delayed. The House Appropriations Committee released its draft of the budget in June, and its Senate counterpart released its version in October. Since then, no action has been taken to bring them for a full vote.

Meanwhile, the Senate is still struggling to pass the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, the annual policy bill that has been enacted every year for six decades. Republican Senators have raised objections to a process they called rushed and called for more votes on amendments, while Democrats have pushed to get the “must pass” legislation through quickly.

Biden Administration Outlines Space Priorities at First National Space Council Meeting

Dec. 1, 2021 | By Amanda Miller

The White House released its United States Space Priorities Framework on Dec. 1, as senior leaders gathered at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C., for the first National Space Council meeting led by Vice President Kamala Harris. Listed among five U.S. priorities is to “defend its national security interests from the growing scope and scale of space and counterspace threats.”

To deter aggression in space, the document says the U.S. will “accelerate its transition to a more resilient national security space posture and strengthen its ability to detect and attribute hostile acts in space.” The U.S. also will “take steps to protect its military forces from space-enabled threats,” according to the document.

Additional priorities, include:

Maintaining U.S. leadership in space exploration and science
Advancing space-based Earth observation to “support action on climate change”
Fostering policy and regulatory environments enabling “a competitive and burgeoning U.S. commercial space sector”
Protecting “space-related critical infrastructure”
And, investing in science, technology, engineering, and math education.

In his Dec. 1 executive order authorizing the National Space Council and outlining its duties, President Joe Biden added five new seats to the council for the Secretaries of the Interior, Agriculture, Labor, and Education and the National Climate Advisor.

Vice President Kamala Harris hosts the first National Space Council Meeting of the Biden administration on Dec. 1.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen H. Hicks credited her boss’ rules for appropriate conduct in space as a step toward stopping perilous, debris-generating anti-satellite tests like the one Russia carried out Nov. 15. Hicks referred to Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Tenets of Responsible Behavior in Space during the Dec. 1 meeting.

Russia’s test, in which it launched a kinetic kill vehicle by rocket at a defunct satellite, “really demonstrates the potential deadly effects if tenets like this are not widely shared,” Hicks said. “We’ve seen significant amounts of hazardous debris created that … could still threaten the lives of those space travelers who are in low Earth orbit, and that risk will continue for years with space assets that are vital for all nations’ interests.”

Hicks said the tenets represent “longstanding operational practices,” including:

Behaving professionally and with due regard for others
Avoiding interference
Maintaining safe separations and trajectories
And notifying others when needed to keep space safe.

Air Force Leaders Still Urging Congress to Not Block Modernization Effort

Dec. 1, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force isn’t giving up on its long-frustrated efforts to retire older aircraft, as its department’s leader continues to talk with lawmakers about plans to free up funds for modernization, Undersecretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones said Nov. 30.

Over the past several years, the Air Force has detailed plans to retire airframes such as the A-10, KC-135, and RQ-4, only for Congress to block them. But Jones, speaking during an Air Force Association Air and Space Warfighters in Action symposium, said the urgency of the situation has grown due to the U.S.’s growing competition with and focus on China.

The Air Force needs modern platforms that are more relevant to a conflict with a near-peer adversary, but in order to get them, some older, single-mission ones need to be let go, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference in September. Such moves will mean accepting “near-term risk,” Jones acknowledged Nov. 30.

But members of Congress often cite these near-term risks as reasons for blocking aircraft retirements. Kendall said back in September that he had spoken with Senate Armed Services Committee chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) about using an all-or-nothing package similar to what has been done with base closures to reduce political pressure. And Jones said Kendall had been back on Capitol Hill frequently to highlight the longer-term risks the Air Force faces if its modernization efforts are continually blocked.

“It’s really important that we take those and make those hard decisions now,” she said. “That relies on the American people understanding where we are, and Secretary Kendall has also spent quite a bit of time on the Hill as of late … It really is meant to level set on how the Department of the Air Force understands the threats that we face and the real strategic muscle movements that need to be made so we’re best postured.”

Kendall’s focus on long-term challenges posed by China is nothing new. In his Senate confirmation hearing, he said Chinese modernization was his primary motivation for returning to government service, and at the AFA conference, he recounted telling a senator shortly after he was sworn in that his top three priorities are “China, China, and China.”

But as Kendall and Jones lead the effort to modernize and counter China, they’re not just looking to slash anything over a certain age, Jones said in response to a question about how she defined “legacy” systems.

“The conversation is less about what is or isn’t legacy, but more around what will or will not make sure that we are as successful as we can be in a high-end fight,” Jones said. “And so if it’s not survivable, if it’s not relevant, and it’s going to be hard to sustain, then how might we ensure that we are making the investments in the capabilities that give us the best chance?”

That dovetails with Kendall’s previous comments about focusing more on capabilities and less on experiments and prototypes that don’t end up producing anything. Jones said the Secretary’s stated focus is on “meaningful operational capability.”

“A key component of that is capacity,” Jones added. “It’s not just a … few ‘Gee, whiz’ things, but no kidding, do we have the mass, do we have the capacity to ensure that this is going to have an actual effect?”