Kendall’s Top Seven Priorities to Cope With Peer Adversaries Include Two New Aircraft

Dec. 9, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s top seven priorities are oriented toward giving the Air Force rapidly deployable capabilities relative to China and Russia, putting greater attention on previously “unfocused” technology development efforts, and adding two new programs of record, he said Dec. 9.

In a virtual Defense One symposium, Kendall listed his top seven priorities, saying all of these areas are coming under intense scrutiny in order to get the “direction right” for technology and organizational efforts and “improving our ability to function as an institution.”

His priorities include:

Space Order of Battle

“We’ve got to get that right,” Kendall said. “We’ve got to bring the Space Development Agency into the Air Force pretty soon.”

This will lead to “distributed architectures that are more resilient, as well as capitalizing on commercial applications.”

But it must all be made more coherent, in concert with the Intelligence Community, and be integrated into a Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) system, he said.

Air Base Resiliency

Kendall said the Air Force depends on forward air bases for all its tactical aircraft deployments, but China and Russia are “building mechanisms to attack those bases. We’ve got to figure out what mix of hardening, deception, dispersion, … Agile Combat Employment, and other measures we can take to give us the capability we need there.”

ABMS

“What we need to do there is focus it more than it has been in the past [toward] operational return on investment,” he said. The Air Force should emphasize ABMS elements that “really pay off in an operational sense. That linkage hasn’t been clear, so far.”

Air and Ground Moving Target Indication

“If we’re going to be in a many-on-many situation, we’ve got to sort out a lot of targets and get that information to the people who can engage [them], preferably at long range,” Kendall said. “How do we do that? It’s a combination of space sensors and airborne sensors, … a tight coupling of ABMS and JADC2.”

Kendall later said the Air Force is looking at potentially buying the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail as a bridge system to a still-undefined space-based moving target indicator system.

The E-7—or other platforms under consideration which Kendall didn’t mention—would “fill a gap temporarily” to those space-based systems. The E-3 AWACS and E-8 Joint STARS have become too vulnerable and too attractive as targets to continue using them for the long term, he said. While once it would have taken a prohibitive number of enemy fighters and missiles to reach them and shoot them down, recent analysis indicates that adversaries “would probably spend that many fighters … trying to get to [them] and kill them.”

How the Air Force Goes to War

Kendall said he’s looking for vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including the industrial base, “our logistics systems, our personnel systems, [and] our transportation systems.” He plans to take “a hard look at all that,” to determine where the chain may be more vulnerable “than we can tolerate” and take steps to mitigate those.

A New Unmanned Fighter

“Basically, the idea here is that you have, … nominally, up to five” unmanned aircraft escorting a single F-22, F-35, or the fighter platform element of the Next-Generation Air Dominance system. The pilots of these aircraft are “essentially, calling ‘plays,’ and … using those other unmanned combat aircraft … as a formation to do things that make sense, tactically.”

This approach will create a wide range of combat “opportunities,” Kendall said. But the exact mix of aircraft and the “pre-programmed … plays … are all things that we have to sort out, so we’re getting that one started.”

A New Unmanned Bomber Escort

“The B-21 is a very expensive aircraft” and Kendall wants to “amplify” its capability with more range and weaponry, delivered by escort aircraft, although he said the term “escort” or “accompanying” is not necessarily how it will be employed.

“The tactics are very much to be determined,” he said.

These aircraft will be networked together, controlled by an operator onboard the B-21, to operate “as a formation in some loose sense … against a modern enemy.”

The unmanned aircraft build on the “Skyborg” demonstrations of the last few years, but “what I’m describing is an acquisition program; a weapon system procurement program,” Kendall said. He told press last week that he plans to get the two new aircraft into the fiscal 2023 budget submission.

“We’re going to go from demonstrations and experiments and technology maturation and risk reduction into full-scale development, or engineering, manufacturing, development, production,” he said. While it will take some time to “sort all that out, … we’re going to get on with building something … It’s a commitment to go forward.”

He said that despite previous efforts, “we hadn’t committed to [a program of record] before. So that’s a major change, actually.”

There’s “a fair amount of analysis work to do,” Kendall said, and he’s moved his analysis shop from the A9 to the Secretariat, “to support both the Air Force and Space Force.”

The emphasis, he said, will be on “moving fast,” as it has been for several years, but “going in the right direction is pretty important, too. And so we want to make sure we do the work up front to make sure we’re going in the right direction and … get to meaningful opportunities [and] operational capability as quickly as we can.”

The two new aircraft programs, he said, will be “acknowledged classified” programs, meaning that their funding will be public but details of the systems will be held closely to avoid giving China “a head start” in figuring out countermeasures.

Kendall also said that he’s uninterested in technologies that don’t contribute “meaningfully” to combat efforts.

“One or two of something often isn’t meaningful … It’s interesting and it helps you learn, but it doesn’t get you where you want to be, operationally.”

Although Kendall acknowledged that the B-21 is expected to fly in 2022, “You’re not going to see much of it,” to avoid compromising its technologies, he said.

The NGAD has been underway since Kendall was the undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, but has gone beyond the technology demonstrator stage, he said. It has “moved forward very well” and will be the next-generation fighter after the F-35, but as part of a system of systems, Kendall noted. The other elements of the system, he said, “will be backward compatible” to fourth-generation aircraft, as well.

Combat Role in Iraq Ends, US Troops Remain in Country in Advise and Assist Role

Dec. 9, 2021 | By Abraham Mahshie

The United States ended its combat mission in Iraq and will transition to an “advise, assist, and enable” mission supporting Iraqi forces, reported Combined Joint Task Force-Inherent Resolve Dec. 9.

“Many brave men and women gave their lives to ensure Daesh never returns, and as we complete our combat role, we will remain here to advise, assist, and enable the [Iraqi security forces],” Maj. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr., commander of CJTF-OIR, said in a press release, using the Arabic word for Islamic State.

The U.S. military’s 2,500 troops made the transition to a non-combat role ahead of its Dec. 31 deadline, and will now remain in Iraq at the invitation of the government.

“We are confident that the fruits of our strong partnership will ensure Daesh will not reconstitute and threaten the Iraqi people,” Brennan added.

Four years after the defeat of the Islamic State group in Iraq, Iraqi Staff Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir al-Shammari, deputy commander of the Joint Operations Command for Iraq, said Iraqi soldiers have “demonstrated their ability to maintain the defeat of Daesh.”

The announcement of the transition to a non-combat role came at the conclusion of military technical talks between the governments of Iraq and the United States that began in July.

According to the new agreement, coalition personnel will be guests on Iraqi bases and protected by Iraqi forces.

Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby said Dec. 9 that the U.S. forces operating in Iraq will continue to maintain the right of self-defense.

“We have to assume that threats to U.S. forces remain credible in Iraq,” he said of American troops, who have been fired on by Iranian-backed militias.

“We always have the right and the authority and the capability to defend our troops, to defend our resources, wherever we are, that doesn’t change,” he added.

Kirby also said the transition to a non-combat role has been a long time in the making.

“We had been making this transition for quite some time,” he said. “They have been working themselves out of offensive combat operations against ISIS for quite some time. And the … vast majority of what they’ve been doing for a while now has been advise, assistant, and train.”

Brennan said, “Daesh is down, but not out. We will advise and assist our partner forces to enable the protection of the people of Iraq.”

The end of combat operations in Iraq comes about four months after the U.S. withdrew its forces from Afghanistan after two decades of war.

U.S. officials continue to caution about the ongoing threat not only from violent extremists like the Islamic State group, but also from Iran and its proxies, though U.S. Central Command’s director of operations was optimistic about the current state in Iraq.

“In Iraq and Syria, I see a lot of reason for hope,” said USAF Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, director of operations for U.S. Central Command, during a Dec. 6 virtual AFA event. “I see ISIS still on the ropes. I see the potential for some real progress in Iraq. There’s plenty of risk there. Things could certainly go wrong. There’s people who want to make them go wrong, particularly in Tehran. But, there’s a lot of reasons for hope, and we should all be proud of the trajectory that that’s on.”

Air Force Releases Policy for Dealing with Unvaccinated Airmen, Guardians

Dec. 9, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

Airmen and Guardians who are denied a medical, religious, or administrative exemption to the COVID-19 vaccine requirement will have five days to start the vaccination process, file an appeal, or request to separate or retire, according to a new Department of the Air Force memo issued Dec. 7.

Should the appeal be denied or the request to separate or retire denied, the five-day clock will restart, and those who still refuse the vaccine “will be subject to the initiation of administrative discharge,” according to the memo signed by Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall.

The administrative discharge process includes a counseling process and takes time. It can also vary for service members with different levels of experience, an Air Force spokeswoman told Air Force Magazine.

The deadline for Active-duty Airmen and Guardians to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was Nov. 2, while the deadline for those in the Reserve and Guard was Dec. 2.

According to the most recent data from the Air Force, 3,234 Airmen and Guardians across the total force have verbally refused the vaccine, putting them in line to make one of the three choices. Requests to separate or retire are contingent upon the absence of or a limited Military Service Obligation.

That number, however, will almost certainly grow in the coming weeks—another 10,560 Airmen and Guardians are currently seeking a religious exemption, but not a single such request has been granted thus far. Department of the Air Force policy calls for a decision within 30 business days on requests for religious exemptions to mandatory vaccines from Airmen and Guardians within the continental U.S., but that timeline will likely be delayed for some as the department sorts through a massive backlog.

There are another 4,261 Airmen and Guardians recorded as “not vaccinated,” meaning they are not coded as having refused the vaccine but are still unvaccinated without a pending or approved accommodation.

The Air Force has granted 2,222 medical exemptions to the vaccine, though that number could also fall—some exemptions were granted on a temporary basis for reasons such as pregnancy and will expire. The service has also given 2,521 administrative exemptions, which includes those who submitted a request to retire or separate prior to Nov. 2, 2021, with a retirement or separation date on or before April 1, 2022.

Those who refuse the vaccine and face separation “will not be eligible for involuntary separation pay and will be subject to recoupment of any unearned special or incentive pays,” the memo adds.

Kendall on Nov. 18 hinted that the move was coming, saying it’s a “pretty straightforward” question as to whether those who refuse the vaccine will be separated from the service. He also questioned whether those who remain unvaccinated, even with an approved exemption, will be deployable. Those who are unvaccinated will not be able to PCS to a new assignment, according to a recently issued Air Force memo.

The five-day window puts the Air Force in line with guidance issued by the Navy, which also gave Sailors five days after a denied exemption request to start the vaccination process. The Marine Corps also has said that unvaccinated Marines who are separated won’t be eligible for involuntary separation pay and may have to repay unearned special or incentive pays.

A total of 97.3 percent of the Active-duty Air Force and Space Force are at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19, along with 92 percent of the Air National Guard and 91.8 percent of the Air Force Reserve.

Hands in Pockets, Phones While Walking, Untucked PT Shirts All Allowed Under New Air Force Rules

Dec. 9, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

For years, Air Force rules prohibited Airmen from putting their hands in their pockets, using their phones, or taking a drink while walking, but no more.

A raft of new dress and appearance rules officially went into effect Dec. 3, loosening restrictions on what Airmen can do while walking in uniform, among other things. Service members are now allowed to drink water and use personal electronic devices while walking in uniform, and they can put their hands in their pockets while walking or standing.

The changes to the Department of the Air Force Instruction covering dress and personal appearance, recommended by the 2020 Air Force Uniform Board, were announced back in August and were initially expected to go into effect in October.

A total of 26 changes were made to the instruction, covering everything from actions while walking to hair length to morale patches to PT uniforms.

Among the changes not previously announced, women will now be allowed to have eyelash extensions, as long as they are the Airman’s natural eyelash color and do not exceed 14 millimeters.

New PT uniforms are still coming—in August, the service announced that the new gear, the first PT uniform update in nearly two decades, is expected to be available in October 2022, with a four-year transition period following.

More immediately, though, Airmen are now allowed to wear sweatbands during organized and individual PT. On top of that, PT shirts can now be untucked, though the shirt must “extend to the bottom of the side pocket on the shorts and pants but will not cover the shorts reflective material.” Commanders also have the authority to standardize whether shirts are tucked or untucked during organized unit physical training.

On the other hand, the new rules give commanders the authority to allow the tucking in of Operational Camouflage Pattern (OCP) coat for duty as necessary, as well as rolling up the sleeves.

The new rules also offer some clarification on previous updates. While the Air Force announced in September 2020 that all Airmen, regardless of their natural hair color, are allowed to dye their hair another natural color, the latest update adds that those natural hair colors can be blended together so long as they do not “present an unnatural appearance between colors.” For example, “salt and pepper” dyed hair is allowed, while “ombre” or highlights are not.

While the new rules still do not allow for Airmen to grow beards without a waiver, medical officials can now authorize waivers, instead of just commanding officers.

As previously announced, men will now be allowed to grow their hair to a bulk of 2.5 inches from the scalp, up from the previous 2 inches; double what was allowed up until September 2020. Men will also be allowed cosmetic tattoos on their scalp to create a natural hair appearance.

Women will now be allowed hair accessories up to two inches, up from one inch, and will not have to wear hosiery while in dress uniform.

Additionally, wing commanders will now be allowed to authorize the wearing of approved morale patches on Fridays and special occasions.

Academy Cadets’ New Flight Simulators, Combustion Tube Add to Real-World Research

Dec. 9, 2021 | By Amanda Miller

Cadets at the Air Force Academy can now practice flying everything from fighters to blimps while doing more real-world research into aircraft design for the military.

The Academy’s Aeronautics Laboratory unveiled $8 million worth of equipment Dec. 7, including two full-motion flight simulators and a chambered tube for ramming liquid fuels with bursts of air to the point of combustion.

Cadets 1st Class Shane Lindsay, Weston Lusinski, and Joseph McCaffrey addressed a stubborn problem in the development of hypersonic vehicles after the lab received its combustion shock tube: that of low-pressure pockets forming in the vehicles’ combustion chambers at hypersonic speeds, contributing to irregular combustion and “fuel spraying out the back, not igniting,” as Lindsay put it.

Hypersonic engines such as the scramjet in the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept pressurize air by ramming into it as they fly.

The Air Force Office of Scientific Research, or AFSOR, gave the Academy $2 million for the combustion shock tube to study the problem. The three Cadets cranked the air pressure down low in one chamber of the tube and added in the fuel ingredient ethylene then cranked the pressure up high in a chamber at the opposite end until the pressure broke a seal and pressurized air traveling down the tube shocked the fuel into combusting.

The Cadets recorded the times until combustion occurred, a puzzle piece that could help confront the challenge of keeping hypersonic vehicles in the sky. They’re aware that military researchers are “expecting good data,” McCaffrey said.

Research Focus

Asked if they planned to apply to MIT for advanced degrees, McCaffrey and Lusinski said they were becoming pilots while Lindsay plans to join the Space Force—and that dynamic makes the Academy’s research enterprise unique, said Col. Christopher K. McClernon, the Academy’s associate dean of research.

Research at the Academy exposes future officers to the real work that happens in science and technology development while giving back to the military in terms of their findings. It’s a “recent direction we’ve been going,” McLernon said, recalling his own time as a Cadet graduating in 1999 when “we didn’t have this laser-focused military customer direction we do now.”

Cadets 1st Class Joseph McCaffrey, left, and Weston Lusinski prepare the Air Force Academy Aeronautics Laboratory’s combustion shock tube for a test. Air Force Academy photo.

McClernon said AFSOR contributes smaller amounts every year to seed research projects, but it may then back those projects with more money later as the research advances, such as in the case of the combustion project. The Air Force Research Laboratory, DARPA, the National Science Foundation, the Army, and the Navy have all funded research at the Academy, which extends well beyond aeronautics.

The Aeronautics Laboratory is one of the Academy’s 24 research centers and institutes that study the likes of humanities, social sciences, biology, chemistry, and physics.

New Simulators

The Academy invested it own money into two full-motion flight simulators, both two-seaters, worth a total of $6 million and only about a month old. Unlike typical simulators that reproduce the experience of flying one type of aircraft, these can simulate any aircraft as long as Cadets input the mathematical equations representing the characteristics, such as weight, inertia, and aerodynamics.

Senior-year Cadets completing capstone engineering design courses will even get to fly their own designs in the simulators before heading out to the flight line with their scaled-down models. Aeronautics Laboratory Director Lt. Col. Judson Babcock suspects fewer “fix” phases will be needed in the course’s “fly-fix-fly” scheme.

All Cadets should get a chance to work with the simulators as part of core aeronautics courses.

Babcock said no one had flown an F-35 in one of the simulators yet but that to experience the controls and the movements of any aircraft is theoretically possible, “from fixed-wing, to vertical lift, to aerostats and blimps.”

Congress Wants AETP Engines to be Installed in All F-35As Starting in 2027

Dec. 8, 2021 | By John A. Tirpak

Congress wants new engines in the current and future F-35 fleet, with installs starting in 2027, according to language in the conference version of the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act. It wants a joint plan for doing so from the Secretary of the Air Force and the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment within two weeks of the delivery of the fiscal 2023 budget request to Congress.

It also wants a plan on the future of propulsion for the F-35B and C-models—also to be installed starting in 2027—but left open whether the new engines for those aircraft will be AETP derivatives or Pratt & Whitney’s proposed enhanced F135.

The mandate plan, which is included in the compromise version of the fiscal 2022 defense policy bill, requires a “competitive acquisition strategy, informed by fiscal considerations” from the Air Force on how it will equip all F-35As—including those already in service—with the new AETP powerplants. Congress wants a schedule “annotating pertinent milestones and yearly fiscal resource requirements for the implementation of such a strategy.”

Lt. Gen. Eric T. Fick, the Joint Program Office director of the F-35, has said that if the Air Force is to put an AETP engine in its F-35As, it would bear the cost of development and production alone, as other users of the jet with the F-35B and C variants could not directly use such a powerplant.

General Electric and Pratt & Whitney are in the midst of testing their XA-100 and XA-101 prototypes, respectively, which were developed under the AETP. The new engines provide substantial increases in performance, with a 30 percent increase in range or 40 percent boost in persistence, made possible by a 25 percent reduction in fuel burn. Both engines would also provide double-digit improvements in acceleration.

The enhancements would extend the range of F-35s and reduce their dependence on tankers, particularly in or near contested airspace.

Both companies said they could meet Congress’ previously expressed interest in starting an AETP retrofit on the F-35 circa 2027, although officials from both companies described that timetable as ambitious.

What About Navy, Marine Corps F-35s?

The compromise National Defense Authorization Act mandates a similar report from the Secretary of the Navy, “on how it will integrate a new propulsion system in the F-35B and C models. Both GE and Pratt have said that the F-35B’s downward-rotating rear nozzle makes the AETP engines incompatible with that aircraft, due to its third-stream air bypass system. However, Fick has said that all variants of the F-35 will need an improved propulsion system to take full advantage of the F-35 Block 4 capability upgrades now in development. While the Navy could potentially use an AETP with heavy modification—either the engine or the C-model’s carrier arrestor hook would have to be reconfigured—the most likely solution would be the Enhanced Engine Package (EEP), which Pratt has proposed for its own F135 engine that now powers the whole F-35 fleet.

The NDAA says that the “advanced propulsion system” that congress wants in the F-35B and C models “means a derivative” of the AETP or “a derivative of a propulsion system previously developed for the F-35 aircraft.”

As part of the report from the Navy, Congress wants to know how much a new engine would improve the “combat effectiveness and sustainment costs” of the F-35B and C, “including any effects resulting from A) increased thrust, fuel efficiency, thermal capacity, and electrical generation, and B) improvements in acceleration, speed, range, and overall mission effectiveness.”

The Navy report is also to provide an assessment of how an advanced propulsion system could reduce aerial tanking requirements, and any “overall cost benefit” from “reduced acquisition and sustainment.”

Like the Air Force, the Navy is to provide a competitive acquisition strategy, as well as “consideration of technical limitations” of such an enterprise.

Congress did not specify whether the competitive acquisition strategies to be evaluated include a winner-take-all approach, or whether it will consider annual competitive buys, as was done during the “Great Engine War” of the 1980s. Under that approach GE and Pratt competed for the lion’s share of engine production for the F-15 and F-16 in any given year, with the “loser” receiving at least some work. The benefit was constant competition and product improvement, with the byproduct of maintaining two companies capable of fighter engine production for wartime surge capacity.

GE designed the F136 engine for the F-35, as the Pentagon planned to conduct a similar annual engine competition, but former Defense Secretary Robert Gates shut down the competition, saying it was unnecessary and wasteful.

The JPO estimates that more than 5,000 F-35s may be produced, including U.S., partner, and foreign military sales customers.

US Needs ‘Resilient, Robust’ Space Highway, Space Force General Says

Dec. 8, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

Within the next five to 10 years, Space Force Brig. Gen. John M. Olson envisions far more than just one mission from NASA to return humanity to the moon—he anticipates a “vibrant commercial focus” led by rapidly expanding space companies.

A key component of that will be a “resilient, robust hybrid space architecture, one which has a vision that is well off to the moon and perhaps beyond,” Olson, the mobilization assistant to the Chief of Space Operations, said at Defense One’s virtual Outlook 2022 forum Dec. 8.

That architecture, sometimes referred to as a space “highway,” will have to be a collective effort, Olson said, between private industry, civil agencies, and the military. But given that the Space Force is responsible for space domain awareness, it will have to play a particularly crucial role.

“This is right around the corner,” Olson said. “This is an important area that we look at, one in which we’re following the lead of NASA and we’re actually bolstering strong collaborative partnership with NASA, with industry, with our partners and allies, and like-minded nations around the globe.”

Just how this architecture will be structured and built out is “the grand strategy question, or opportunity, I would rather say, for our time,” Olson said. But there was one point on which he insisted—China cannot be allowed to reach the Moon and build up its own architecture before the U.S.

“As we look at this global competition for resources, for opportunities, for exploration, and for the benefits that can leverage so much goodness here on the face of the Earth, I think the United States must be first,” Olson said, pointing to aggressive actions taken by the Chinese on Earth as evidence that they will look to impose their will wherever possible.

At the moment, there are no Space Force Guardians actually in outer space. But Lt. Gen. Stephen N. Whiting, head of Space Operations Command, said in July that he would not be surprised if there are space-faring Guardians in the near future. And Olson’s vision of the space architecture of the near future is similarly far-reaching and transformative.

“The … federal highway systems, which are actually known by the Eisenhower federal highway and defense systems, just like that enabled transportation and the ability to safeguard our nation, the ability to stimulate commerce and business across the United States, as did the electrical grid, and the transcontinental railroad, and the internet—all these great examples of infrastructure underlie this huge opportunity that we have now as we look at space,” Olson said.

The role of the government, and more specifically the Space Force, in all of this is to ensure space domain awareness and to “set the standard for interoperability and set the guidelines and the rules of the road,” Olson said.

The issue of domain awareness and safety has become increasingly relevant after Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test Nov. 15 that created a cloud of hundreds of pieces of debris.

Rattling off statistics from previous satellite tests by other nations that created smaller debris fields lower in orbit, Olson criticized the Russian test as reckless and “absolutely gross in its impact.” Such tests, he added, highlight the need for the Space Force and the awareness it provides for NASA and industry.

“The Space Force focus is on resilience, because we now know that we have a contested environment. As you just saw on the 15th of November, our competitors around the globe have had a series of irresponsible acts in space,” said Olson. “And as much as we do not like that, we also feel that that’s a pragmatic reality that we’re going to have to know and deal with.”

Biden Says Troops ‘Not On The Table’ to Shore up NATO Eastern Flank, Deter Russia from Invading Ukraine

Dec. 8, 2021 | By Abraham Mahshie

President Joe Biden said unequivocally Dec. 8 that no U.S. troops would be used to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, and administration and DOD officials said there are no plans for additional defense assistance after a final small arms delivery this week.

In the aftermath of a tense videoconference between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin Dec. 7, the White House has sought to de-escalate tensions with Russia and lend credence to a diplomatic solution to the crisis at the Ukrainian border, where Russia maintains more than 100,000 troops. In recent weeks, Russia has consolidated forces on multiple fronts to the north and east of Kyiv and wields a sizable Black Sea fleet to Ukraine’s south.

“That is not on the table,” Biden told reporters on the south lawn of the White House when asked if U.S. troops could be used in or around Ukraine to deter a Russian invasion. “The idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia from invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now.”

Rather, Biden described the warning he gave Putin the day before: “If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences—severe consequences—and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen.”

He said he told Putin, “We would probably also be required to reinforce our presence in NATO countries to reassure particularly those on the eastern front.” But for now, a diplomatic team will start working with Russia to address security concerns, Biden added.

His words. and the “if” condition, were echoed by national security advisor Jake Sullivan Dec. 8 in an interview with Defense One.

“What it means to be proactive is to set the table,” Sullivan said of preparing Ukraine for a defensive contingency. “We have gone above and beyond what any administration has done in terms of providing the kinds of defensive support to the Ukrainian military.”

The United States has given Ukraine more than $2.5 billion in defense assistance since Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, and $400 million in defense assistance this year. The last lethal and non-lethal articles of a $60 million package authorized by Biden during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Washington visit in August will arrive this week.

Those articles include small munitions, such as machine guns and grenades, and medical assistance, not the new air and naval defenses the Ukrainian defense minister said during a visit to Washington in November were necessary to deter Russia.

Still, Sullivan said work has been done to deter Russia and shore up NATO’s eastern flank allies, some of whom formally were under direct control or influence of the Soviet Union.

“We have engaged in a substantial amount of effort, both in terms of the operations and exercises we’ve undertaken this year,” Sullivan said of U.S. operations in the NATO eastern flank countries, which include Poland, the Baltic nations, and Black Sea allies Romania and Bulgaria.

“From our perspective, we have allied unity, we are providing support to the Ukrainians, we have sent a clear message to the Russians, and we believe that this shows the kind of proactive, strong, clear, decisive policy that puts us in the best position to manage this crisis as we go forward,” Sullivan added.

Also speaking to Defense One Dec. 8, Pentagon policy chief Colin H. Kahl left the door open for Biden to provide additional defense assistance to Ukraine.

“There are options to expand security assistance to assist in Ukraine’s self defense, but I don’t want to get ahead of the President’s decisions based on that,” Kahl said. “We’ve been in lockstep in terms of consultations with our allies sharing intelligence, we all see the same thing.”

Reassuring NATO Allies

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark A. Milley held a call with NATO chiefs of defense earlier in the week and met personally with his Polish counterpart at the Pentagon Dec. 8. The meeting follows a call between Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and his Polish counterpart Nov. 30, which discussed how to enhance deterrence on the NATO border.

Nonetheless, Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby said in a Dec. 8 Pentagon briefing that there were no plans for Austin to hold additional consultations with his NATO counterparts, and no new defense assistance to Ukraine to announce.

“If there is a further incursion and invasion into Ukraine, and if our NATO allies request additional capabilities to assist them with their own defensive needs or requirements, then we would positively look at those requests,” he said, referring to Sullivan’s remarks at the White House Dec. 7. “We’re just not there yet.”

Several administration officials qualified that if Russia were to “further invade” Ukraine, a response would be triggered.

Kirby clarified to Air Force Magazine that could mean Russia sending reinforcements into the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in southeastern Ukraine. The sliver of Ukraine has been cut off from the rest of the country by a frontline and low-intensity conflict with Russian-backed separatists since the Minsk agreement was signed in 2014.

“It means additional incursions into Ukraine, violating their territorial integrity and their sovereignty with additional units inside Ukraine,” Kirby said.

As the crisis evolves, American Soldiers and special operators are currently on Ukrainian soil.

The Defense Department confirmed that approximately 150 trainers from the Florida National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team and an undisclosed number of U.S. special operations forces are working with the Ukrainian military.

The U.S. Air Force began basing MQ-9 Reapers at Romanian Air Force Base 71 at Campia Turzii earlier this year. U.S. Air Forces in Europe boss Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian said at the time, “The forward and ready positioning of our MQ-9s at this key strategic location reassures our allies and partners, while also sending a message to our adversaries that we can quickly respond to any emergent threat.” Theater security packages of USAF fighters rotate to the base regularly. USAF also has a detachment of contractor-owned and operated MQ-9s in Poland, as well as an aviation detachment in Poland, that supports rotations of USAF cargo and fighter jets to the country.

Nearby, the Army’s 4th Security Force Assistance Brigade has rotational teams located in Georgia, Latvia, North Macedonia, Poland, and Romania, and the 164th Air Defense Artillery Brigade headquarters, Florida Army National Guard, is currently in Ansbach, Germany.

DOD declined to disclose timelines for additional training, operations, or deployments in the region.

Vice Chair Nominee Pushes Nuclear Modernization to Deal with China, Russia in Confirmation Hearing

Dec. 8, 2021 | By Greg Hadley

Adm. Christopher W. Grady, nominee to be vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Senators during his Dec. 8 confirmation hearing that the Pentagon needs to be prepared to deal with “two nuclear peer competitors,” calling China’s rapid growth of its nuclear capabilities “spectacular” and Russia’s recent actions at the Ukrainian border “very destabilizing.”

Grady, picked to succeed the now-retired USAF Gen. John E. Hyten as the military’s No. 2 officer, pointed to the U.S.’s own nuclear modernization efforts as crucial to that preparation, agreeing “absolutely” with Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) that a modernized nuclear triad is necessary.

“We need to have that responsive, flexible, and survivable triad across the three legs if we’re going to meet the challenges of two nuclear peer competitors,” Grady said.

China has garnered much of the headlines lately for its buildup of its nuclear arsenal, including hundreds of new missile silos and a test of a hypersonic orbital bombardment system. And Grady agreed with a recent assessment by U.S. Strategic Command boss Adm. Charles “Chas” A. Richard that China’s growth in the area has been a “strategic breakout” and “breathtaking.”

“I think that China’s breakout, as Adm. Richard has called it, is indeed spectacular and indeed breathtaking,” Grady said. “And so therefore, we need to be postured to address that issue. We need to think about how we would proceed with deterrence, particularly deterrence now against two peer competitors, who need to be deterred in two different ways. And deterrence, then I think, builds on that strong nuclear triad. … And so the modernization of the nuclear triad will be the underpinning of that deterrence effort against two nuclear competitors.”

Grady discussed efforts to replace the sea- and land-based legs of the triad, saying the “Ohio” class of submarines in the Navy are reaching a tipping point when it comes to their hull strength, and the Minuteman III ICBM system is becoming more expensive to maintain than its proposed replacement, the Ground-based Strategic Deterrent.

“I do believe that, as we think about GBSD and the timeline there, at a certain point, it costs more to maintain than it does to re-modernize, and we’re approaching that,” Grady said.

But it is not just the weapon systems that need to be updated, Grady said. Agreeing with a question from Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who pointed to nuclear command, control, and communications as another area that needs to be updated and secured.

“What we see in the cyber domain across all of our weapon systems has to be addressed. And so we talk a lot about being able to defend our networks—the ultimate network to defend is the NC3 network and we’re going to have to be able to do that in cyber,” Grady said. “So if confirmed, it would be a high priority of mine to continue the momentum started to do that.”

The challenges presented by two near-peer competitors have become increasingly clear recently. Russia continues to mass troops near the Ukrainian border and fears of a potential invasion rise, as China continues to send planes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, raising tensions there.

Balancing those two threats, particularly with the Pentagon’s force planning construct, will form a key part of Grady’s responsibilities if he is confirmed.

“If you start with Russia in Crimea and with Ukraine, it is a very dangerous and destabilizing situation that we’re working our way through,” said Grady. “It’s important for us to ensure that we work with our NATO partners and continue to recognize the the challenges that are faced by Russian activity in that area of the world, and then remain rock solid in our commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. …

“I think in the western Pacific, the challenges are equally important, as we have discussed, that’s the pacing threat in the Pacific, the INDOPACOM. And we’re going to have to meet those on a daily basis. Again, two near-peer competitors, we’re going to have to balance those going forward.”

Grady’s path toward confirmation appears relatively smooth; Multiple Senators, both Republican and Democrat, expressed optimism Dec. 8 about advancing his nomination to ensure the vice chair position is filled as quickly as possible.