Air Force Continues Modest Shift Toward Standoff Munitions in New Budget

April 1, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Standoff munitions—primarily the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile series—continue to get priority in the munitions category of the Air Force’s 2023 spending request, according to service budget documents. Direct-attack munitions see a doubling of units, touted as a recovery of munitions spending, but the level requested is only a quarter of the units acquired in fiscal 2021.

The JASSM-ER (Extended Range) is the single largest line item in munitions spending, with a request of $785 million to buy 550 missiles, which USAF officials described as “maxing out” the production capacity of maker Lockheed Martin. That rate is up for a third year, after USAF bought 400 and 525 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Lockheed is expanding its facilities in Troy, Ala., to build more.

The service is also buying 28 Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) variants of the JASSM for $119 million, after buying none in fiscal 2022. Air Force officials have said the JASSM and LRASM are needed to address the rising threat posed by great power competitors, as the weapons have the ability to stealthily penetrate hundreds of miles of contested airspace.

Mark Gunzinger, director of future aerospace concepts and capabilities assessments at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the modest increase in JASSM production is “good news,” but the relatively small increase in units “illustrates the limited capacity of our industrial base, including its lack of surge capacity. JASSM-ER is the kind of weapon needed in a China fight, but we can’t buy enough of them to meet the requirements of a large-scale campaign” due to their high cost per round.

Gunzinger has argued that direct-attack munitions, fitted with some kind of rocket or air-breathing motor to extend their range, released from long-range bombers, is likely the most cost-effective way of addressing the thousands of targets that would have to be hit in a Pacific war scenario.

The request for 1,919 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMS) in the fiscal 2022 budget plummeted from 16,800 units the year before, but this year rises back up to 4,200 units. USAF budget director Maj. Gen. James D. Peccia III, briefing reporters on the 2023 request, said the JDAM number “is substantially higher than previous years … We’re catching back up, which is why that number is a little bit higher in ’23.”

The big drop in JDAMs last fiscal year was attributed to a decline in demand at the end of large-scale operations in Syria and Iraq.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters in a pre-release budget brief that intelligence indicated Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine well in advance, noting that it “wasn’t a surprise” to senior leaders, and that the budget included some anticipation of possible operations in Europe and/or in the Indo-Pacific. The Air Force did not directly tie the JDAM procurement increase to either scenario, however.

Of note, replacement of munitions expended in wartime, previously funded under the “Overseas Contingency Operations,” or OCO account, are now part of the Air Force’s base budget.

The buy of Small Diameter Bomb I, which also dropped sharply from 2,462 in 2021 to 998 units in 2022, has fallen again, to 356 weapons in 2023. The Air Force has stated a preference for the GBU-53/B StormBreaker (previously known as SDB II), which nevertheless also declines from 985 units in 2022 to 761 bombs in the new request; a level comparable to that of two years ago.

The Air Force has not yet released its full budget programmatics information for 2023 and beyond, but the AGM-114 Hellfire missile, which largely equips MQ-9 Reaper drones, was not mentioned in the service’s budget highlights as it was in recent years. The Air Force is transferring 100 MQ-9s to another government agency in the 2023 plan, which, along with the curtailment of operations in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, is likely causing a steep decline in the need for Hellfire.

Collectively, the Air Force increased spending on conventional surface attack weapons by about $300 million in FY’23, from $1.130 billion to $1.436 billion, driven mainly by the addition of LRASM and the boost to JDAM production.

Gunzinger cautioned that the budget information released so far only describes what is happening with in-production munitions and doesn’t provide a picture of what USAF is developing. Even with strap-on motors, weapons like JDAM were not designed to be survivable, he said, and “munitions survivability is increasingly critical to strike success/lethality.”

The radar-guided AIM-120D Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) sees a rebound in FY’23, up to 271 units, after falling to 168 last year. The new level is almost exactly what it was in FY’21, which was 268. The AMRAAM will be superseded in the next few years by the classified AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM). Plans discussed at a USAF industry conference in 2019 forecast AMRAAM production will phase out in 2026, in favor of JATM.

The request for the AIM-9X Sidewinder—a short range, infrared-guided weapon for dogfights—was about level from last year, with the Air Force requesting 255 rounds, versus 243 in FY ’22. That level was down from 2021, when USAF asked for 331 rounds. The shift to combat operations at longer ranges may explain some of the steady decline in Sidewinder acquisition.

20th Air Force Women Inspire, Lead Future of Nuclear Enterprise

March 31, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

A decade ago, female missileers could not “pull alert” at a certain stage of pregnancy or while nursing.

More often than not, the women who took responsibility for an ICBM launch control capsule chose instead to leave the Air Force.

Today, Air Force policies have changed while still achieving mission objectives.

Female Airmen leading the nuclear enterprise say the small changes are helping retain and recruit female missileers, while young female Airmen can see what’s possible in their Air Force career in the changing faces of leadership.

Perhaps nowhere is that more true than 20th Air Force, where missileers go deep into the belly of nuclear missile silos for the most important job in strategic deterrence, maintaining and operating the nation’s intercontinental ballistic missiles.

“We’ve got two wing commanders out of four in 20th Air Force that are female,” 91st Operations Group commander Col. Kristen A. Nemish told Air Force Magazine. “That is not something that I had the ability to see when I was a young lieutenant.”

Factors included low numbers of female Airmen, especially in the nuclear enterprise. But old Air Force policies also hurt retention and prevented women from rising in the ranks.

“There are policies that are now allowing us to attract and retain families,” added Nemish in a phone interview from Minot Air Force Base, N.D.

In addition to the two female wing commanders, two of four operational security commanders are women, a circumstance unheard of a generation ago. Female leaders say the changes and the coming decade of nuclear modernization are building excitement among the new generation of female Airmen.

“That’s a great step forward,” said Nemish. “I think that those steps forward have been allowed to happen because we have people now at the higher levels that do have diverse backgrounds.”

Women Will Lead the Once-in-a-Generation Nuclear Upgrade

With the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise slated for billions in modernization in coming years, the 20th Air Force is finding that its corps of female leaders will be front and center to guide the nation’s land-based leg of the triad, the new Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD).

“It was kind of unheard of back in the day for somebody to be pregnant while they were on missile crew,” said Col. Anita A. Feugate Opperman, 341st Missile Wing Commander and one of two female wing commanders who oversee ICBM operations.

A missileer for 27-and-a-half years, she remembers a different time for women in the career field.

“When I was a young lieutenant, I was probably one of three or four in my squadron of 60 to 70 missileers,” Feugate Opperman said by videoconference from Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont.

Now, women represent 22 percent of all missileers.

“We have women at all stages of their career, having babies, feeling like they can continue on with their family, whatever the situation is, and still say in the Air Force,” the wing commander said.

Col. Anita Feugate Opperman, 341st Missile Wing commander, gives opening remarks during the Women’s History Month Symposium March 10, 2022, at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. Airmen and representatives from several Air Force Global Strike Command bases attended the symposium to share their leadership experiences and workplace challenges while remaining authentic. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Tristan Truesdell

Small lifestyle and quality-of-life adjustments to Air Force policies are leading to higher retention rates for women in the nuclear enterprise and more women in leadership roles.

As more women stay in the Air Force and rise to lead the nuclear enterprise, the cycle of retention continues.

“Seeing women at higher levels that have been able to balance work and family is encouraging for the young Airmen as well as some of the changes that we’ve just made,” she said. “Whether it’s maternity leave or being able to pull alerts longer into your pregnancy—and more acceptance that you realize it won’t hurt your career—[that] has allowed us to retain and recruit more women.”

Young mothers are even accommodated now while pulling alerts. TRICARE covers the cost of breast pumps for nursing mothers in the field, while the command has made adjustments to designate private places to pump. Some problems still remain, as only certain pumps are approved for use in launch control centers.

Col. Catherine Barrington, commander of the 90th Missile Wing at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyo., has also witnessed the mentality change within the ICBM enterprise.

“The value is that women are at the table, working the issues and involved in all aspects of ICBM nuclear leadership,” she said. “While that wasn’t the case years ago, we now see an improvement for everyone, and we are a stronger force because of inclusivity.”

Barrington recalls seeing one of the first female missileers, 429th Missile Squadron commander Lt. Col. Linda Aldrich, when she was a second lieutenant heading out on her first alert.

“I was walking down the hallway to the briefing room when I saw her. I immediately said to myself, ‘Oh, I could be a squadron commander just like her,'” she recalled. “Seeing a female commander let me know that it was a possibility for me.”

Fourteen years later, when Barrington took command of the 319th Missile Squadron, retired Col. Aldrich was in attendance.

Like many female Airmen, Barrington is married to another Air Force officer. In past years, missileer marriages usually resulted in the woman eventually separating from the Air Force.

Current Air Force policy prioritizes keeping dual military couples together. That wasn’t always the case, making it tough for Barrington and her husband to get assignments that allowed them to be together.

“Our leaders kept both of our careers moving forward and found ways for us to be stationed together well before this became the norm in the Air Force,” she said. “Because nuclear leaders cared for individuals, this potential hurdle was not a significant issue for us.”

Col. Catherine Barrington, 90th Missile Wing commander, speaks to Airmen assigned to the 90th Logistics Readiness Squadron in an LRS warehouse at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming, July 6, 2021. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Charles Munoz

‘A Competition for Talent’

Commander of the 20th Air Force Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton said if the Air Force doesn’t make adjustments to recruit and retain talent, the nuclear enterprise will lose that human capital to the other services and the private sector.

“It’ll be a competition for talent,” he said.

“We’ve got to be really keen on competing against those other services, in support of service to our nation,” he said in a video conference call from F.E. Warren. “When we look at that outreach, how do we double down on recruiting that talent, specifically, our young ladies or young women, to let them know what is possible?”

Lutton takes great pride in the fact that the 20th Air Force has female Airmen leading two wings, multiple missile operations squadrons, and two of the four helicopter squadrons.

“Those ladies are the best people,” he said.

“That’ll tie into your Ground Based Strategic Deterrent. That’ll tie into the B-21. That’ll tie into all these areas in air and space and cyber,” he said, noting that Barrington’s 90th Missile Wing will be the first to receive GBSD.

“She is a vanguard,” he underscored. “She is on the cutting edge of delivering our nation’s Ground Based Strategic Deterrent.”

If Congress approves the Defense Department’s budget plan to keep GBSD on schedule, then the three missile wings overseeing the nation’s Minuteman III ICBMs will begin a complex transition of onboarding a new system and operating an old system simultaneously.

The 90th Missile Wing at F.E. Warren will come first, when construction begins as early as 2023. The 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom will follow in 2026, and the 91st Missile Wing at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., will be the last to break ground in 2029.

Barrington said the excitement generated by the once-in-a-generation change in the nuclear enterprise is having an effect on young female Airmen.

“What I love about fielding GBSD is that we get to be pioneers with this brand-new weapon system,” she said.

“Our young officers will be able to spend a good portion of their careers leading fielding efforts and solving complex issues that arise during the process,” she added. “It is a tremendous opportunity, and I want today’s female missileers to know that this is an exciting leadership opportunity to shape a weapon system that will be in service through 2075.”

KC-46 Cleared for More Refueling; Likelihood of Bridge Tanker Competition Falls

March 31, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

As the Air Force continues to look for a “bridge tanker” to follow the KC-46, top officials say they’re defining the requirements for the next aerial refueler—while the KC-46 itself continues to progress in the kinds of aircraft it can refuel.

The Department of the Air Force’s 2023 budget request asks for $198 million for research and testing for the KC-46, including funding for the bridge tanker program. Thus far, Lockheed Martin has put forth its LMXT airframe—which stands for Lockheed Martin “Next” Tanker—as a contender, while Boeing has reportedly said it will re-enter the KC-46.

In looking at what the service wants, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall gave reporters a hint into how his team is leaning during a March 25 briefing.

“As we look for requirements, look further out, the requirements start to look like a modified KC-46 more than they do a completely new design,” Kendall said. “So we’re working our way through finalizing those requirements. Again, we’ll be doing due diligence market research analysis.

“… I want to be very transparent about this. I think that there’s still a possibility for competition out there. But as we’ve looked at our requirements, the likelihood of a competition has come down.”

On March 31, U.S. Transportation Command head Gen. Jacqueline D. Van Ovost didn’t go quite as far in speaking before a subpanel of the House Armed Services Committee. But she did say TRANSCOM is working to help draft the requirements for the bridge tanker as the military looks to move beyond the aging KC-135, which has been part of the Air Force for more than 60 years.

“We’ve been working with the Air Force on a recapitalization plan that will ensure that we can continue to recapitalize, because we recognize that a 70-year-old aircraft is very hard to maintain and the reliability on the road would not be good,” Van Ovost said. “So we are working with the Air Force on the requirements for the follow-on tanker, if you will, and … as you see in the budget, they have placed some money to try to take a look at that future refueler.”

Van Ovost also updated members on the status of the KC-46, which has faced serious issues with its Remote Vision System and other deficiencies, but has been gradually cleared to refuel more and more kinds of aircraft with “interim capability releases.”

In December, Air Mobility Command said the tanker could refuel nearly 70 percent of all aircraft in the fleet. Now, Van Ovost announced, AMC has cleared the KC-46 to fuel F-22s and F-35s, meaning it can now refuel roughly 85 percent of the fleet.

“In addition, they are doing exercises around the world to exercise our logistics chain and ensure that they can mobilize in the small packages and generate tanker capability while they’re forward. So I am heartened by the exercising that they’re doing,” Van Ovost said. “They’re also providing some capacity to TRANSCOM on a day-to-day basis to do refueling. I think this is the fastest way to [get to] fully operationally capable, by having the crews get out there and do reps and sets on that aircraft.”

Van Ovost also praised the KC-46 for possessing “some key capabilities that I would like to see going into the future. It’s part of the network—it’s connected. And it can do more. It’s multi-modal. It can do drogue and probe stick boom refueling.”

Later in the hearing, Van Ovost identified that ability to connect to the larger network as one of her top priorities for the future refueling fleet.

However, several lawmakers expressed frustration with the KC-46, pointing to delays that have forced the KC-135 to keep flying. In particular, Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) called it “embarrassing” for the Air Force to still rely on the KC-135 and pressed Van Ovost on the potential use of the Airbus A330—a variant of which Lockheed Martin plans to use for LMXT and which would be manufactured in Alabama.

Van Ovost noted that there are no A330s in USAF’s inventory but that other countries fly the plane and U.S. aircraft refuel from it.

Regardless of any bridge tanker, however, the KC-135 could continue to fly into the 2030s and beyond, and the Air Force “must” work to modernize the tanker so it can continue to fulfill TRANSCOM’s needs, Van Ovost said.

“There are numerous modifications that Air Mobility Command is trying to place into the KC-135. This is a little bit of a matter of scale with the number of airplanes that they would have to modify, but they are trying to not only make the airplane more relevant and survivable, but frankly, there are areas where parts obsolescence are a problem and they’ve got after just replacing stuff that they can’t fix anymore,” Van Ovost said. “So it is a large modernization program, but they’re working it very hard.”

USAF to Form New F-22 Training Unit; JATM Will Help Raptors Keep Their Edge

March 31, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force will form a training unit from its newer Block 30/35 F-22 Raptors, reducing the jets available for combat operations, according to Lt. Gen. David S. Nahom, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs.

At the same time, new weapons developments, such as the new AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, can help the Air Force maintain a competitive edge against peer threats.

A reduction in the F-22 fleet in the fiscal 2023 budget request, however, from 186 airplanes to 153—combined with the creation of the training unit—would sharply reduce the number of F-22s available for battle, according to an analysis by the Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

One reason the Air Force is reducing the size of the F-22 fleet, Nahom said, is that new F-22 pilots, trained on the older Block 20 airframes, are taking too long to transition to the upgraded Block 30/35 models at their operational units.

“The difference between them is getting greater and greater over time,” Nahom said in an interview with Air Force Magazine, “because we keep putting more capability on the operational Raptors.” The older jets aren’t getting those upgrades “because they don’t have the capacity” to absorb the modifications, and the Air Force has decided it wouldn’t make financial sense to upgrade the older jets, despite the small size of the Raptor fleet.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters in a pre-release budget briefing that USAF thinks it’s more efficient to take the older F-22s out of service now and use the money saved by not flying and fixing them to develop the Next Generation Air Dominance system.

“Because of the nature of the hardware and the software” in the Block 20 airplanes, Nahom said, students have to “relearn a lot of things in the operational units.” What the service wants is a swift transition—“a quick topoff”—when students come from a system schoolhouse to their first operational unit.

“It’s not that way with the Raptor right now,” he said.

“So, what we’re going to do is … we’re going to take some of those Block 30/35s and turn them into a training unit, and it will be able to be able to train [students] at a higher level. And so you’ll have a much more full-up round when the young pilot shows up at his or her operational unit.”

Nahom did not say how many Block 30/35s will be put into a training unit, but it will likely be less than the 60 now set aside for that purpose. Nahom also did not say where the unit will be headquartered. The F-22 schoolhouse at Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., moved to nearby Eglin Air Force Base when Hurricane Michael largely destroyed Tyndall in 2018. However, the Air Force said in budget briefings this week that its Raptor fleet will be redistributed among other F-22 bases.

With a fleet of 153 F-22s, the usable number of F-22s plummets to a very small figure.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, said that with 186 F-22s, after taking away 60 for training and with a mission capable rate of about 50 percent for the remainder, what is is left is a usable force of just 62 Raptors. F-22s have have, however, turned in mission capable rates of about 80 percent during combat operations in the past. At that rate, 98 could be available for battle.

In that case, Deptula said, the available aircraft would be split “one-third in the fight; one-third preparing to launch or en route; and one-third recovering, refueling, and re-arming.”

Using the new inventory of 153 airplanes as the baseline, he added, reduces that to “a maximum of 27 F-22s in the fight at any one time—using the entire F-22 inventory.”

New Weapon

Nahom said the Air Force is “really looking forward” to fielding the AIM-260 JATM, which he called “ a wonderful weapon.”

“I think when you mix that with our other platforms … that is going to help us keep our advantage” in the air-to-air fight.

The JATM was first revealed in the summer of 2019, when then-Brig. Gen. Anthony W. Genatempo, program executive officer for weapons, described the missile at an “industry days” conference hosted by the Air Force Life Cycle Management center.

Genatempo said at the time that flight testing would begin in fiscal 2021 and initial operating capability would follow in fiscal 2022. The missile, being built by Lockheed Martin, is longer-ranged than the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), to compete with the Chinese PL-15. The PL-15’s long reach allows pilots of stealthy Chinese J-20s to see, target, and shoot at adversaries before AMRAAM-armed jets can shoot back.

The Air Force is putting $344 million into F-22 upgrades in its fiscal 2023 budget request, described mainly as “sensor upgrades.”

“We can’t stop” improving the F-22, Nahom said. “Because our adversaries aren’t stopping. And that’s why you see our investments in things like NGAD … But we’re very excited about the upgrades we’re making to the F 22.” Other improvements include a helmet-mounted weapon cuing system.

The highly classified JATM is believed to marry a multi-mode seeker with a long-burn rocket system capable of fitting within the weapons bay of the F-22. It will also equip the Navy’s F/A-18E/F and eventually the F-35.

In justifying a military construction project at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, in 2019, the Air Force said a special storage area for the JATM was needed at the base due to its “extremely sensitive” nature and the need for a “Special Access Program Facility” at the base with heavy security to house it.

USAF said the JATM “is the number-one air-delivered weapon priority for both the Air Force and the Navy, and out-prioritizes other weapon system improvements and modernization efforts on any fielded aircraft.” Genatempo said in 2019 that JATM would supersede production of AMRAAM circa 2026.

Boeing-Led Team to Explore E-3 AWACS Replacement Options for NATO

March 31, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak and Abraham Mahshie

An industry team led by Boeing will study how best to replace NATO’s E-3 AWACS system, which will retire in 13 years, under a contract awarded March 31 by NATO’s support and procurement agency. Boeing is doing a similar study for the U.S. Air Force centered on the E-7 Wedgetail platform, which Air Force leaders recently hinted could be the replacement for retiring the Airborne Warning and Control Systems in the U.S. fleet.

NATO operates a fleet of 14 E-3s.

The contract covers a “risk reduction and feasibility study” of “future air surveillance command and control concepts,” Boeing said in a statement. The company will “guide capability development efforts by … alliance members” ahead of the NATO AWACS retirement.

The contract was awarded to the ABILITI industry team, formed in 2019, which also includes Indra of Spain; Leonardo of Italy; Thales of France; ESG Elektroniksystem-und-Logistik-GmbH of Germany, and Mott MacDonald of the U.K. The contract’s value was not disclosed, and it did not specify a particular solution.

The study will help NATO “refine concepts to replace the capabilities currently provided by its fleet of AWACS aircraft,” Boeing said.

The U.S. Air Force has 31 AWACS in its fleet, with 15 slated to retire in the fiscal 2023 President’s budget now before Congress.

The U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a contract in the fall of 2021 to study how the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail, flying with Australia and Turkey, and in production for the U.K., could be adapted rapidly to meet USAF’s AWACS needs. The Air Force’s AWACS are all well over 30 years old and suffer from parts shortages and poor availability rates hovering at just over 50 percent.

“Our AWACS fleet is challenged with maintainability as well as capability,” deputy chief of staff for plans and programs Air Force Lt. Gen. David S. Nahom said at an AFA virtual event March 30.

Nahom said the E-3 lacks the needed airborne moving target indicator (AMTI) capability or the ability to see things moving through the air.

“We do need to recapitalize that we can go to something modern,” he said, acknowledging that allies use the E-7. “Our acquisition professionals are doing due diligence with industry to make sure we know everything that’s out there, before we make a decision.”

The Air Force study has Boeing performing “studies, analyses, and activities required to ascertain the current E-7A baseline configuration and determine what additional work would be necessary” to make the E-7 compatible with USAF “configuration standards and mandates.”

Nahom said the call to retire 15 AWACS is to free up $227 million to start developing its successor.

Kendall Notes Preference for E-7

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, briefing reporters ahead of the budget release, said the Air Force likely will move to obtain the E-7 but must first do market research to establish that there are no viable alternatives.

Air Force officials have said the turboprop-powered Northrop Grumman E-2 Hawkeye and Saab Erieye systems are not fast enough and don’t have the necessary altitude capability to meet USAF’s requirements. The Air Force wants to field an AWACS replacement starting in five years.

“The leading candidate, quite obviously, is the E-7,” Kendall said. “But we want to do our due diligence before we before we make the final decision.”

The service views the E-7 as a “bridge” capability to an as-yet-undefined future system of air and ground moving target indication predominantly based in space. The NATO study likely will also examine both near-term and long-term solutions for AMTI.

The E-7 is not an open-architecture system but could be modified to have one, Boeing officials have said.

“The combined engineering and aerospace expertise of our team will ensure we deliver a technical concept that provides the most effective means of addressing NATO’s future surveillance, command, and control needs,” Boeing director of EU and NATO government affairs Kim Stollar said.

Pentagon: Russian Bombardment of Kyiv Continues Even as Some Troops Start to Withdraw

March 30, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

A day after announcing it would cut back on military operations toward the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Russia had repositioned about 20 percent of its forces around the city.

Defense Department Press Secretary John F. Kirby offered the latest assessment during a press briefing March 30, warning that even with that movement, the Ukrainian capital remained at risk as Russia’s invasion of the country continued into its second month.

“Kyiv is still being attacked by bombardment: artillery fire as well as airstrikes. A majority of the forces that Mr. Putin put around Kyiv are still there,” Kirby said. “Now, as I said a couple of days ago, they’re largely in defensive positions. We several days ago stopped seeing any advancement on their part. They weren’t moving closer to the city. From a ground effort, there was no more advancing on Kyiv, but the airstrikes have not stopped, not at all.”

None of the Russian troops who have begun to leave, Kirby added, have returned to their “home garrisons” in Russia. Instead, some are still in Ukraine, and others have gone north into Belarus. From there, Kirby warned, they will likely be deployed again.

“We’re seeing units go, so it’s our assessment that they are also bringing much of their equipment with them … we believe for refit and repurposing for future operations inside Ukraine,” Kirby said.

Kirby’s comments echo those made by senior U.S. officials in the past few days in response to Russia’s supposed withdrawal from Kyiv. President Joe Biden told reporters March 29 that “I don’t read anything into it until I see what their actions are,” and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested the statement could be a ploy.

Still, Air Force Gen. Tod D. Wolters, head of U.S. European Command, did confirm to members of the Senate on March 29 that “the shifting dynamics on the ground domain in the vicinity of Kyiv are exactly what we see from a EUCOM perspective.”

Intelligence Assessments

During his latest press briefing, Kirby also confirmed reports that U.S. intelligence has determined Russian President Vladimir Putin has been misinformed by his advisers about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine.

“We would concur with the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense at every turn over the last month,” Kirby said. “Now, I want to caveat that: We don’t have access to every bit of information that he’s been given or every conversation that he’s had, and I’m going to be very careful here not getting into too much more detail on this. But we have seen these press reports attributed to a U.S. official, and we would concur with the basic finding.”

U.S. intelligence has repeatedly been at the forefront of the response to the conflict. The Pentagon sought to expose Russian activities and plans in the run-up to the invasion by publicly releasing information, and the White House reportedly modified rules so that agencies could share information and data with the Ukrainians once the invasion began.

At the same time, lawmakers have raised concerns that U.S. intelligence may have erred in overestimating the Russian armed forces. At the outset of the conflict, reports indicated fears that Kyiv would fall in days or weeks instead of putting up the fierce resistance that has materialized.

Asked by Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) in a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing if the unexpected turn of events indicated a gap in U.S. intelligence, Wolters acknowledged that there “could be.”

A day later, in front of the House Armed Services Committee, Wolters repeated that assessment.

“There could be a gap. And I think what we owe our citizens is, once we get into a post-conflict environment, is to go back and examine that very issue, to make sure if there is in fact a gap, we rectify it,” Wolters told Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.). “But at this point, I agree with you that there was a degree of miscalculation, and it’s evidenced by the performance of the Russian military up to this point. And I think we need to be prepared to take a really good look at it.”

At the same time, Wolters acknowledged that trying to gather intelligence on Russia’s plans remains a daunting task.

“Just to be fair … the world of a 21st-century intel officer is very difficult. I often ask our intel professionals, ‘What is so and so thinking?’ And as we all know, a threat is defined as capability and intent, and part of that intent is what one human being is thinking,” Wolters said. “And given the structure of how Russia operates, it’s very difficult to determine where President Putin’s head was the entire time.”

Asked about Wolters’ comments, Kirby indicated there wouldn’t be a formal after-action review of the situation because the U.S. was not directly involved in the conflict, but he did say informal discussions were likely to take place. At the same time, Kirby pushed back on the notion that Ukrainian resistance was unexpected.

“Let’s not forget the training and the support that we have been giving the Ukrainians for the last eight years as they’ve been engaged in a hot war in the Donbas,” said Kirby. “And it’s not just us. The Brits, the Canadians, and other nations in Europe have also lent training support to the Ukrainians. So their success on the field of battle is not an accident. It’s the result of a lot of hard work over the last eight years.”

Air Force’s Budget Invests in ‘Balance’—Space Force’s in ‘Resiliency,’ Planners Say in AFA Talk

March 30, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

The Department of the Air Force needs its largest research and development budget ever in the face of threats from China and Russia, the lead Air Force and Space Force budget planners said.

Air Force Lt. Gen. David S. Nahom and Space Force Lt. Gen. William J. Liquori joined Air Force Association president retired Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright in a video discussion March 30—in the wake of the March 28 defense budget release—to make their case for sacrificing combat power now to meet Secretary Frank Kendall’s operational imperatives, including a call to “transition to a wartime posture against a peer competitor.”

“We’ve got to be able to evolve to more resilient architecture and be able to protect the things that we have out there today,” said Liquori, the Space Force’s deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, requirements, and analysis, in response to a question from Air Force Magazine.

Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, USAF; and Lt. Gen. William Liquori, Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Strategy, Plans, Programs, Requirements, and Analysis, USSF, join AFA President Bruce Wright in this episode of Air & Space Warfighters in Action.

Changing missile threats, particularly maneuverable reentry vehicles and hypersonic missiles, drove the decisions to devote $3.48 billion to the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) radar and $1.03 billion to resilient missile warning/missile tracking. Overall, the Space Force’s budget proposal to Congress gives $15.8 billion to research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E).

The Space Force budget planner said the shift will lead to a hybrid architecture of satellites, a design concept reached after running thousands of simulations.

“In the case of missile warning/missile tracking, they took a look at hundreds of different architectural combinations, and for each one of those combinations, they ran thousands of runs on their computer systems to be able to see which ones performed the best,” Liquori said.

“If all we did was continue to field the systems that we have, we would lack resiliency,” Liquori said, explaining that current capabilities were put on orbit when space was a benign environment.

Resiliency achieved with a new architecture meets the threat posed by adversaries China and Russia, which maintain anti-satellite weapons that can operate from Earth and in space.

“If all we focus on is the here and now, we will never evolve to where we need to be and where we see the adversary evolving,” he said.

The Air Force slates $33.4 billion for RDT&E, fully 25 percent of the service’s budget.

Nahom, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said his one-word answer to the question of investment versus near-term capability was: “balance.”

The Air Force budget planner pointed to the current Air Force effort to reassure NATO allies on the eastern flank as an example of how the Air Force has the capacity to cope with current threats.

“The Air Force is there, not to mention the Middle East, the Pacific Rim, and all around the world,” he said.

“We have to make sure that our Airmen have the current capacity they need to meet combat commanders’ need,” he added. “The RDT&E is so critical that we look to the future, and we look for what is out there and technology that can meet emerging threats.”

Nahom explained that the emerging need for the Air Force will be to contend with the long distances and ranges of the Pacific theater. The Air Force has been faulted for not buying enough F-35s in the current budget.

“We’ve been designing fighters for years [with] the European theater ranges in mind, from World War II right up to and including the F-35,” he said. “As we look at the future investment, we’ve got to account for going to greater distances, and potentially loitering longer with greater weapons loads. And certainly, we’re making adjustments to that.”

NATO Commander Increases Prediction to 550 F-35s in Europe by 2030

March 30, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

F-35s in Eastern Europe have been performing some “elegant” intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions as part of the NATO response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of U.S. European Command told lawmakers March 30—and he expects the fighter’s presence on the continent to expand dramatically by the end of the decade, exceeding earlier predictions.

Air Force Gen. Tod D. Wolters, who also serves as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, added to members of the House Armed Services Committee that getting more F-35s delivered to Europe, either as part of the U.S. Air Force or for other nations, is “critical.”

“They’ll deliver a tremendous improvement in our strategic ability, in indications and warnings, command and control, and mission command, as already demonstrated by U.S. F-35s that are contributing in the assure and deter mission at this time,” Wolters said.

In mid-February, just before the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the U.S. deployed F-35s from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to enhance NATO’s defense posture. Those jets were later sent to Romania and Poland to bolster the eastern flank, arriving on Feb. 24.

At the time, U.S. Air Forces in Europe said six of the fifth-generation fighters were being deployed. More than a month later, Wolters told Congress that four are still being used in the region, to great effect.

“The U.S. F-35As, the four that we have right now, are in use, and they’ve been very effective doing some elegant ISR activities. And it just reveals to us how much greater capability we’re going to have once we get our full fleet on board,” Wolters said.

USAF has deployed more F-15s and F-16s to Eastern Europe during this crisis, but the performance of the F-35s is being closely watched by many—Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has said their success could go a long way in building his confidence in the program.

Wolters declined more discussion on the importance of the F-35’s capabilities in Europe to a classified setting on March 30, but it appears more and more likely that the fighter will play a key role in the continent’s future defense.

In June 2021, Wolters predicted during an Atlantic Council discussion that by 2030, there could be 450 F-35s in Europe. Since then, Finland and Germany have said they will buy the fighter as well, joining the U.S., Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, the U.K., and Switzerland as European nations and partners who have either started fielding the F-35 or have plans to do so.

The response to Russian aggression has helped to drive that demand, and Wolters told the HASC that he was upping his prediction.

“The disposition of the NATO nations with respect to the F-35 is dramatically growing,” Wolters said. “And our hope is, we have 100 on the continent right now, and we anticipate in 2030, growing to 550, and that’s a good fleet.”

MiG-29s Raised Again

While Wolters touted the capabilities that the F-35 has been able to offer during the recent crisis, he sounded less optimistic when it came to an issue that several representatives raised—the transfer of Soviet MiG-29s from Poland to Ukraine, using the U.S. as an intermediary.

The idea, put forward by Poland several weeks ago, was quickly shot down by the Pentagon, which said it didn’t consider the proposal “tenable.”

Since then, however, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has pushed for the transfer, which Ukraine has asked for.

The issue was raised once more by both Republicans and Democrats on the congressional panel, and Wolters reiterated that his best military advice has been for the U.S. not to send any jets to Ukraine.

“It goes back to the military mission effectiveness weighed against strategic miscalculation, to make sure you take into account the protection of the citizens of Ukraine, as well as the citizens on the periphery. So all those variables have to come into play,” Wolters said.

Boeing Scales Up Capacity to Build Small Satellites at Calif. Factory

March 30, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

Boeing unveiled its new “high-throughput” factory-within-a-factory for small satellites March 30. From a 30,000-square-foot section of its space manufacturing hub in El Segundo, Calif., the company expects to build entire constellations of small sats that span the altitudes.

Staff from Boeing’s subsidiary Millennium Space Systems will operate the new production line, according to a statement announcing the new factory floor. The subsidiary will also contribute aspects including “agility and rapid prototyping.”

The opening exemplifies how the company is “scaling and growing to fulfill our customers’ vision for multi-orbit constellations with demand across markets and mission sets,” said Jim Chilton, senior vice president of Boeing Space and Launch, in the statement.

Boeing intends to do “virtually every aspect of satellite manufacturing” in the new area. It says Millennium Space Systems has experience in environmental testing of small sats and that it will have access to Boeing’s testing facilities that have qualified more than 300 satellites for spaceflight.

In-house production may have brought down, by almost half, the price of 42 satellites in the Space Development Agency’s recently awarded data transport layer of its planned National Defense Space Architecture. According to SpaceNews, SDA’s technical director told the audience at a space industry conference that York Space Systems’ much-lower $382 million bid likely compares so favorably to those of its fellow awardees Lockheed Martin ($700 million) and Northrop Grumman ($692 million) because those two companies are actually buying the satellites from other providers, whereas York is building the satellites itself.

Private companies, governments, and institutions added more than 1,400 satellites to orbit in 2021 alone, the most ever in a year, and around the world, entities continue to announce plans to launch constellations in the hundreds or thousands.

That growth has built up over the past few years, reflected in the global economy to the tune of $447 billion in 2020, according to the Space Foundation—the first year new satellites crossed the 1,000 mark and U.S. military spending on space reached $26.6 billion.