Air Force May Divest 1,468 Aircraft over Five Years

April 7, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force may be planning to divest 1,468 aircraft over its future years defense plan while buying just 467, for net reduction of more than 1,000 aircraft, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said during an April 7 Senate Armed Services Committee budget hearing.

Questioning Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on the fiscal 2023 budget request, Fischer said, “Under this budget, the Air Force is divesting 369 aircraft this year and buying 87, which is a net loss of 282. The five-year plan projects buying 467 aircraft, and divesting 1,468, a loss of 1,001.”

Fischer’s numbers for fiscal year 2023 don’t match the ones the Air Force disclosed as part of its topline budget rollout, in which it said it would retire 150 aircraft, hand over 100 MQ-9 remotely piloted aircraft to another agency, and buy 82 new airplanes, for a net reduction of 170 aircraft. In the fiscal 2022 enacted budget, USAF was permitted to divest 159 airplanes.

The Air Force declined to comment on the discrepancy, saying only that the more detailed “J-books,” which provide programmatic line items, will be released later this month. Traditionally, the J-Books have been provided at the time of the budget rollout, but they were not provided with the budget last year or this year.

During the hearing, Fischer asked Austin if he expects operational demands to fall commensurate with those reductions.

Austin replied that the DOD is “investing in those capabilities that will enable us to be decisive in the future fight. And those capabilities that are not survivable in that fight, I think we have to divest of them.” He added that the platforms slated for retirement are “very expensive to maintain. We can use those resources to invest in future capabilities, the kind that we need for the next fight. And so, that’s our strategy.”

Gen. Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said the majority of divestitures affect the Air Force and Navy, and “the cost benefit analysis to sustain them over time doesn’t add up … We are trying to modernize the force for the future operating environment, 2030 and beyond.”

The Pentagon is “investing to be decisive in a future fight,” Austin said.

That figure of 1,000 aircraft divested would be consistent with the roughly 200 a year the Air Force has asked to retire in the last several budgets.

Neither Austin nor Milley indicated any reduction in the need for U.S. forces, however, and acknowledged there will be “some risk” in the near-term of gapping those capabilities.

Fischer said that while she’s “open to divesting legacy platforms,” she said it is creating undue stresses on the remaining forces.

Fischer complained to Austin that the Pentagon’s top strategy documents—the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review, and Missile Defense Review—were all only submitted to Congress last week, and in classified form, leaving little time for Congress to study them and develop meaningful “opportunity for debate.” She also complained that the J-Books will not be provided until mid-April.

“I think having this hearing without any detailed information about the budget, when we are unable to discuss any of the Administration’s strategy documents, directly undermines the committee’s ability to conduct its oversight work,” Fischer said.

Austin replied that unclassified versions of the strategy documents will come out soon, saying the strategy will closely follow the interim NDS released last year.

“Resources are matched to strategy, matched to policy, matched to the will of the people,” Austin said.

Fischer also said she’s determined to reduce secrecy, saying the amount of defense information that is secret has increased markedly, and “we are going backwards in terms of classifying these documents.” This is “contrary to the spirit of transparency,” she said.

Buying Modernization

Austin pointed out that the budget contains “$56 billion for airborne platforms and systems” and pays for ongoing modernization of the strategic nuclear deterrent.

Although a sea-launched tactical nuclear missile was deleted from the budget, Milley said he disagreed with that action, noting his preference is to “present as many options as possible” to the national command authority.

Undersecretary of Defense Michael J. McCord said that $20 billion of this year’s budget is “catch up” to account for inflation, which rose steeply last year, “so we wouldn’t be behind” in the current fiscal year.

Austin and Milley said they are re-evaluating U.S. European posture, both indicating that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a greater U.S. presence is needed, although neither indicated how many additional forces would be required. Some of this will involve a greater presence in the vicinity of the Black Sea, Austin said.

“We will change our footprint” in the area, Austin said. “We’ll need more going forward … How much remains to be seen.”

Austin said the latest developments in Ukraine indicate that Russia has encountered greater resistance than expected.

“Putin has given up on his efforts to capture the capital city” of Kiev, and “he is now focused on the South and East of the country. And our goal is to get the Ukrainians everything they need, that we can possibly get to them, as fast as we can get it to them, … so that they can be successful in that fight … And that will be our focus going forward.”

Asked what “winning” looks like for the U.S. in Ukraine, Milley said, “Winning is: Ukraine remains a free and independent nation … as it has been since 1991, with their territorial integrity intact. That’s going to be very difficult and it’s going to be a long slog; this is not an easy fight that they’re involved in.”

The Ukrainians have “defeated that first Russian onslaught” around Kiev, “but there is a significant battle ahead, down in the Southeast,” Milley said. It’s a part of the country more flat and open, where armored vehicles are likely to play a larger role, and Milley and Austin said discussions are underway with allies and partners to provide Ukraine with more of such vehicles.

LEO Constellations’ Connectivity Offers Risks, And Rewards, Execs Warn

April 7, 2022 | By Shaun Waterman

Many of the more remarkable capabilities of the coming generation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations come from their extraordinary connectivity—they’re networked not just with receivers on the ground, but with each other, as well. But this connectivity also means an increased cyber attack surface, panelists told the Space Symposium April 6.

“Every time you connect an additional node, you add an additional piece to a constellation, you add an additional ground station, you’re adding links, and … every link you add, that’s going to add risk,” said Stacy Kubicek, vice president and general manager of Lockheed Martin Missions Solutions.

Separately, at a media briefing on the sidelines of the symposium, Lt. Gen. Stephen N. Whiting, commander of the Space Force’s Space Operations Command, acknowledged the real danger that such vulnerabilities pose for space-based capabilities on which the whole joint force depends so completely.

“We have to be cyber secure because cyber is our soft underbelly of these global networks. And then we have to do that across our space and our combat support missions,” he said.

New LEO constellations can make that harder, because of the additional connectivity they require. Traditional Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite communications operate on a simple “bent pipe” principle, where the user terminal points up at a single satellite, at a fixed position in the sky, which then sends its signal straight back down to a ground station connected to the network. But in a LEO constellation, because the satellites are so numerous and move so swiftly across the sky relative to users on the ground, the whole constellation needs to orchestrate its connectivity—satellites, user terminals, and ground control stations all need to be networked and controlled so that the terminal knows which satellite it is communicating with and the satellite knows where to send the data it receives.

For example, many of the new constellations use optical communications via laser to transmit data. But lasers don’t work if there’s cloud cover over the ground station, so to maintain connectivity, the constellation must be able to instantaneously reroute data in space, passing it from satellite to satellite until it reaches one over a ground station where the skies are clear.

This multiplex connectivity is the source of the remarkable capabilities of the new LEO constellations, but it also means their attack surface is much broader, because there are so many more entry points into the network for an attacker.

Connectivity was essential to the function of the constellation, Kubicek said, so the additional risk it brought couldn’t be eliminated, it had to be mitigated and managed. “It really does come down to balancing the risk that we’re going to take on, as part of bringing on more things into the constellation … [against] what is the effect we’re trying to get? What are the things that we’re going to have to offset with the risk that we’re going to take on as a result?” she said.

One mitigation, she added, was “to cyber harden our data,” but the use of sophisticated encryption had implications. “Obviously, that’s going to come with a cost, we have got to be careful, because if we say we’re hardening everything, there’s going to be a lot of cost with that. And also, there’s going to be a lot of latency.”

Again, Kubicek said, it was a matter of risk management. “Where do we want to cyber harden, versus where do we want to potentially take a little bit more risk to get data quicker? In some areas, we might be more amenable to taking risk. In [Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications, or] NC3? Probably not,” but maybe in other areas, she said.

In cyber terms, the new LEO constellations could be thought of as virgin soil for security, much like the internet in its early days, suggested Richard Aves, executive vice president for mission solutions at Parsons Corp.

“We almost have to approach proliferated [LEO] space, like the early days of the Internet,” he said, noting that it took several years for the first worms and malicious software to appear, but predicting that the cycle would operate much faster this time around.

“It’s going to be probably two days, once the proliferated LEO constellations are fully up and operational [before they’re attacked],” Aves joked. Satellite operators needed to have the capability to update the software that runs them “to be able to address morphing cyber threats to the network.”

Space Force Woos Industry as Ukraine Highlights Commercial Partnerships

April 7, 2022 | By Hope Hodge Seck

As commercial satellites feed images from Ukraine to U.S. space and intelligence agencies in a historically collaborative effort, Space Force leaders are eager to learn how else they can put the commercial sector to work for the service.

In an April 6 hearing before the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Deputy Director Tonya P. Wilkerson alluded to the role the private sector is playing in monitoring Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“[Geospatial Intelligence] has been a central element of our nation’s understanding of the Russia-Ukraine crisis,” she said. “NGA is closely monitoring events in Ukraine while we provide partners across the globe access to numerous sources of intelligence, including commercial space-based imagery.”

While the hearing was taking place, officials at the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs offered more details: some 200 commercial satellites fed imagery into NGA’s pipeline, allowing the agency to anticipate Russia’s moves, David Gauthier, the agency’s deputy director of commercial and business operations, reportedly told an audience there.

This government dependence on commercial space infrastructure illustrates the complexity of the domain. And it’s informing how military leaders are thinking about building up space capabilities.

Lt. Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, commander of U.S. Space Systems Command, said Space Force was planning a “reverse industry day,” an opportunity for space-focused companies to share what they could offer the service in the realm of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). A traditional industry day, by comparison, features a specific solicitation or needs statement and invites businesses to show how they could meet the predetermined requirements.

The current conflict highlights unfamiliar territory for the Defense Department: operating in a domain where commercial and civil enterprises have more resources, more infrastructure, and sometimes more experience.

In opening remarks, Guetlein described Space Force’s acquisitions strategy: “Buy what we can, build only what we must.” This partnership-heavy approach will make the space enterprise more resilient, he said, and result in a deterrent network “that transcends national borders and bolsters American security and prosperity.”

On the heels of investing $135 million in space domain awareness, $2.3 billion on satellite communications, and $22 million on commercial SATCOM command and control, Guetlein said the next major investment area for Space Force would be ISR.

“We’re just starting to do studies to determine how much ISR we can buy from space,” he said.

Space Systems Command also recently rolled out a new initiative to grease the skids for collaboration between Space Force and the commercial sector: SSC Front Door. Guetlein described the effort as a “one-stop shop” for would-be commercial partners of all sizes, offering them a single site to access and a single email address through which to communicate with the service.

“We will paint the path to opportunities depending on what they’re offering to bring to the table,” Guetlein said.

Jon Ludwigson, director for contracting and national security acquisitions at the Government Accountability Office, did sound a note of caution. He said the increased number of satellites on orbit as the commercial space industry expands requires greater levels of tracking and risk mitigation, particularly in low-earth orbit, where the Defense Department also hopes to expand operations.

“However, the burgeoning commercial industry provides more options for DOD to procure commercial data and services to complement DOD’s, or in place of DOD developing its own systems,” he said. “We’re examining the opportunities and challenges DOD faces on this front.”

Romania Calls for Permanent US Presence, Air Policing to Deter Russia

April 7, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

OTOPENI AIR BASE, Romania—NATO Air Command pivoted quickly when Russia invaded Ukraine, deploying U.S. assets to conduct enhanced Air Policing in the Black Sea region, where years of investment are now bearing fruit. But Romanian defense officials say that the deterrence mission must change to a permanent defense mission to prevent future Russian aggression.

“We are living a new normal,” Romanian Air Chief Lt. Gen. Viorel Pana told Air Force Magazine during an interview at Otopeni Air Base in Bucharest.

“Even the plans that we have for a confrontation against a peer competitor need to be adapted,” he said while walking the flight line of Romania’s air lift base. “The key word is flexibility.”

To flex muscle in the weeks and days preceding and immediately following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. repositioned F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s to conduct enhanced Air Policing missions along the eastern flank of NATO, reaching from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

It did not deter Russia in Ukraine, but it has, thus far, kept Russia from striking the former Soviet and Warsaw Pact nations that in December Russian President Vladimir Putin called on to withdraw NATO firepower.

Romanian defense officials who spoke to Air Force Magazine in Bucharest applauded Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark A. Milley’s remarks to Congress proposing rotational troops at permanent Eastern European bases to deter Russia. They argue Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have been prevented, and with Russia closer than ever to NATO’s southeastern border, only a permanent presence will deter future aggression.

In Romania, the United States, NATO, and Romania have invested tens of millions of dollars in air base infrastructure, training, and exercises to prepare for the type of contingency now playing out. Russia now occupies Ukraine’s Snake Island, located in the Black Sea at the mouth of the Danube River, some 22 miles from Romania’s coast.

Pana said years of close cooperation with the U.S. Air Force has built wing-to-wing trust between American and Romanian aviators.

“The results can be seen in how we are doing things together,” said Pana, reflecting on the quick repositioning of American F-16s, which are flying from multiple air bases across Romania. “They can operate together, do missions together, plan together.”

Pana explained that the U.S. regularly operates from Romania’s air bases, rotating units and doing missions and training. But Romania wants a permanent American presence in order to stop Russia.

“The aim is to translate from forward presence to forward defense,” said State Secretary for Defense Planning Simona Cojocaru, the equivalent of Romania’s deputy minister of defense. “It’s such a leap. And this cannot be done without U.S. support, without the permanent presence.”

In recent weeks, NATO announced the creation of a new battle group to be hosted in Romania, which already hosts command and control centers and the NATO Headquarters Multinational Corps South-East. The Black Sea country is situated just 200 miles from occupied Crimea, home to Russia’s anti-access, area-denial bubble.

Cojocaru said that at the June NATO summit in Madrid, Romania plans to make its case for a brigade-sized NATO presence. An increase in Romanian defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, or $1 billion more per year, is proof that Romania is doing its share, she says.

“We are the front runners here on the eastern flank,” Cojocaru said at an interview conducted at Romania’s Ministry of Defense. “The Black Sea today is the focal point for deterrence and defense.”

Local defense experts agree that it is not enough for the U.S. and NATO partners to show their presence in a crisis and then recede.

“If you continue to come like a fireman, only when the fires are rising, you will come back after five years or 10 years because Russia will not change their behavior,” said George Scutaru, a former Romanian parliamentarian who now heads the think tank New Strategy Center, which hosted a defense discussion April 7 in Bucharest with the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Scutaru pointed to Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, prior to the current crisis, as evidence Russia will strike again if not adequately deterred.

“What is necessary? To have another war in Georgia or to [have fighting in] Moldova to come back?” he posed when asked why the U.S. should maintain a permanent presence in Romania. “It’s necessary to be here.”

AFA Changes Name to the Air & Space Forces Association

April 7, 2022 | By Amy Hudson

After 76 years, the Air Force Association is changing its name to the Air & Space Forces Association to better match its mission supporting and advocating for both Airmen and Guardians.

AFA was incorporated on Feb. 4, 1946—more than a year before the Air Force broke away from the Army and became an independent service under the National Security Act of 1947. The Space Force was established on Dec. 20, 2019, creating a new military service for the first time in more than seven decades, and marking one of the most significant changes in the history of the Air Force.

The Air Force Association changed its name to the Air & Space Forces Association, revealing a new logo on April 7 that better reflects its its advocacy and support for both the Space Force and the Air Force.

“Today, both military services are represented by the Department of the Air Force, and thus, both are fully represented by our Association,” said AFA Chairman Gerald Murray, former Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force. “This change makes clear to everyone that space is integral to our mission.”

Although the association will retain the AFA acronym, which it has used since its inception, it also unveiled a new Star-Delta logo intended to “redefine what those letters stand for,” according to an AFA release. The logo merges a modernized blue star on the left, derived from the original “Hap Arnold” Army Air Corps Star, with the Space Force’s black Delta and Polaris.

“These elements have been combined to present a unique visual identity that reflects the dynamism and permanent bonds between these two services and their respective warfighting domains,” said Murray. “The Polaris in particular is of note, as it represents the Space Force’s unique role as a guiding light and enabler for the whole of the joint force.”

The rebranding is intended to capture the association’s full mission:

To educate the public about air and space power
To advocate for the most capable, lethal, and effective Air and Space Forces
To support Airmen, Guardians, and their families.

“AFA has always been fully committed to supporting both the Air Force and Space Force as the most indispensable elements of our joint force,” said AFA President Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright, USAF (Ret.). “Even now, as the Space Force grows, expands, and builds its own, unique warfighting culture, air and space remain inextricably linked. The Airmen and Guardians who are the masters of those domains nevertheless remain tightly integrated within a single Department of the Air Force. So it is with our Association.”

Cutting Edge New LEO Constellations Will Use Familiar Link 16 Tech

April 6, 2022 | By Shaun Waterman

The Space Development Agency’s experimental Low Earth Orbit (LEO) data transport constellation will employ bleeding edge new technology in space when it starts to launch later this year. But down on the ground, SDA Director Derek M. Tournear told the Space Symposium April 6, the satellites will employ more familiar tech: The 90’s-era Link 16 tactical communications.

“One of the guiding principles at Space Development Agency is whatever we put up in our transport layer has to be compatible with what the warfighters already have. And that’s why we chose Link 16 … Because there’s no extra user equipment that’s needed to be able to tie into that network.”

It was a virtue born out of necessity, he explained. It would have been impossible to provide the capability starting this year with a requirement for new equipment. “Each of the military services has their own process to buy terminals, and these terminals are already in place. If you wanted to require them to use new terminals, it would be close to a 10-year process [to buy them], and you would get a lot of pushback.”

By contrast, Link 16 technology was already ubiquitous, not only among all the U.S. military services, but across the NATO alliance. “Link 16 is the most proliferated tactical data link that not only the U.S., but all of our allies use,” he added.

Link 16 is a standard for tactical radio technology, which provides secure, hard-to-jam communications for voice, text, and data. It has been used extensively in allied operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East. “It’s what we would use to fight in these [near-peer] conflicts,” as well, Tournear explained. As currently deployed, a Link 16 receiver requires a line-of-sight connection and has a maximum range of 300 nautical miles.

Under a $50 million Air Force Research Lab contract, Viasat have been developing a LEO satellite with Link 16 capabilities, and SDA has previously said that Link 16 connectivity will be one of the capabilities they demonstrate when the first experimental wave of the transport layer constellation is launched later this year.

The constellation is designed to provide reliable low latency communications that could survive in a shooting war. Because LEO constellations move across the sky relative to the earth, dozens or even hundreds of them are needed to offer global coverage. But that characteristic also helps make them more survivable, by comparison with a single satellite in geostationary orbit.

Because the new SDA satellites will employ inter-satellite links, as well as connectivity to the ground, Tournear said, connecting them to Link 16 terminals would give a new global reach to a reliable and widely deployed tactical communications system. “We would enable those data [from a Link 16 terminal] to go over our transport layer, and then be set down directly via the existing tactical data links that are already in place,” he said.

In this way, he added, SDA would start to fulfill the promise of the totally connected military force envisaged in the joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) vision.

“Essentially, we’ll take the existing tactical data links, which are the Link 16 networks, and take that from a regional capability to a full global connectivity, low latency communication path. And so that’s how we would be able to enable this sensor to communicate directly to that shooter and be able to close the kill chain.”

Space Force Uniforms Approved, a ‘Home Run’ With Guardians

April 6, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

The Space Force’s service dress uniform proved to be a hit with Guardians—not to mention “off the charts” with younger Guardians—said Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, and the service has “slapped the table on the final design.”

After its prototype’s unveiling at AFA’s Air Space & Cyber Conference in September 2021, the uniforms went “on the road … to pretty much every installation that had Guardians,” Raymond said in a one-on-one interview with Air Force Magazine at the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colo., on April 6.

Guardians gave the uniform about an 81 percent favorable rating during the road show.

“If you get 81 percent on anything, it’s a home run,” Raymond said

The roadshows, along with some early feedback after the rollout, resulted in refinements to the original design to mitigate issues including the fit and the jacket’s collar. An enlisted Guardian wore the uniform at the symposium whose pants fit noticeably more slimly than the loose pants in the original prototype.

Raymond was still wearing his “spaced up” Air Force uniform, as he put it, quoting Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman. Raymond’s uniform bore buttons with the Space Force’s delta symbol for the first time this week, and he said Guardians will start to be able to wear the Space Force’s hexagonal nameplates while they wait for their new uniforms.

Next logisticians will take over, Raymond said—”the material gets wear tested and color tested, all of that.”

Then it will go into production, but Raymond acknowledged that supply chain holdups may lengthen that process.

“By law, everything that is on a uniform has to be made in the United States, and there are only two fabric companies in the United States that we can use,” he explained. “The supply chain issues due to COVID have really put that industry in a bit of a bind.

“So we’re accelerating as fast as we can,” Raymond said.

The uniform was the service’s top clothing priority, said Space Force Change Management Team Director Col. James Jenkins in an earlier statement about the uniform development, “as it’s very important to us culturally, to get out front and talk to Guardians.”

The uniform’s distinctive character incorporates symbols such as the Space Force’s delta logo, a standing collar on the dark blue—nearly black—jacket, and a row of six offset buttons representing the six U.S. armed services.

Guardians will continue to wear the Operation Camouflage Pattern uniform, or OCP, for their combat uniform.

Biden Nominates New Commanders for AFMC, AETC

April 6, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force is poised to have two new heads of major commands, as President Joe Biden nominated Lt. Gen. Duke Z. Richardson to receive a fourth star and lead Air Force Materiel Command and Lt. Gen. Brian S. Robinson to take over Air Education and Training Command.

Richardson currently serves as the service’s uniformed acquisition chief—the military deputy in the Office of the Assistant Secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics. His nomination signals that AFMC’s current commander, Gen. Arnold W. Bunch Jr., is slated to leave the job soon; Bunch has led Air Force Materiel Command since May 2019.

As commander of AFMC, Richardson would oversee installation and mission support, discovery and development, test and evaluation, life cycle management services, and sustainment. He would come into the job with a long history in acquisition.

In his 39 years in uniform, Richardson has observed five major changes, he remarked at a recent conference—higher quality threats, a need for interoperability, changes to the workforce, software-defined hardware, and accelerating change.

Robinson, meanwhile, currently serves as deputy commander of Air Mobility Command. He has also served as director of operations at U.S. Transportation Command. If confirmed, he would replace Lt. Gen. Marshall B. “Brad” Webb, who took on the job in July 2019.

Richardson and Robinson’s nominations were received in the Senate on April 4 and referred to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

In addition to Richardson and Robinson, the Air Force also announced a slate of nominations shuffling several key positions in the Pentagon.

Lt. Gen. David S. Nahom, the service’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, is being nominated to take over as the commander of U.S. Northern Command’s Alaskan Command, as well as commander of the Eleventh Air Force and NORAD’s Alaskan region.
Lt. Gen. Mary F. O’Brien, who serves as the deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations, is nominated to be Chief Information Officer for the Joint Staff and the director for command, control, communications, and computers/cyber.
And Lt. Gen. Tom D. Miller, the current commander of the Air Force Sustainment Center, is nominated to be deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering, and force protection.

Meanwhile, three major generals have been nominated for a third star and a new position.

Maj. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski, deputy commander of the Fifth Air Force, is slated to be director of logistics for the Joint Staff.
Maj. Gen. John D. Lamontagne, chief of staff for U.S. European Command, has been tapped to be deputy commander for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa.
Maj. Gen. Randall Reed, commander of the Third Air Force, has been nominated to replace Robinson as deputy commander of AMC.

Repositioning of Russian Forces in Ukraine Creates Nightmare Scenario for Romania

April 6, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

BUCHAREST, Romania—Russia’s war repositioning to Ukraine’s south and east has heightened worries for NATO Black Sea ally Romania, which saw Russia close within 30 miles of its coastline when it captured Snake Island from Ukraine Feb. 24.

American F-16s are currently conducting a NATO enhanced air policing mission in Romania, and in February the U.S. sent two F-35s to help deter Russia.

Romania has been a stalwart American ally in recent years, hosting roughly 800 American troops on its military bases, including the air policing mission at Fetesti Air Base near the strategically important Danube river delta.

Romanian government officials who spoke to Air Force Magazine in Bucharest worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be moving towards a strategy of uniting the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine under Moscow’s control.

From a strategic perspective, Russia needs a land bridge to Crimea, evident by its bombardment of Mariupol, to form a link with the Donbas. The vital port city of Odesa is Russian-speaking and could provide a connection to the Russian occupied Transnistria region of Moldova. That would put Russia directly on NATO’s border with Romania, and transfer southern Ukraine’s mineral and hydrocarbon riches to Russian control.

The American presence of troops and air power has helped to deter Russia so far. But, Romania wants more troops and a permanent U.S. presence. Romania also continues to benefit from American air power while it slowly builds its own modern Air Force.

Romania’s combat aircraft consist of 17 F-16s and a small number of upgraded MiG-21 Lancers. While Romania has ordered 48 total secondhand F-16s with a stated eventual transition to the F-35, most of its F-16s have not been delivered. Romanian pilots also require additional training before they can take on combat missions.

In the meantime, the U.S. Air Force is helping to fill the air defense gap in the southeastern corner of NATO.

“They won’t stop,” a Romanian government official told Air Force Magazine, speaking of Russia.

“Either you stop Russia in Ukraine, or you’re going to fight it on the NATO soil, on the EU soil,” the official added on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive security discussions.

The official observed that Russia has not closed Ukrainian skies or used its array of electronic warfare capabilities.

“You have a big question mark, where’s the rest?” the official posed.

The official suggested the possibility that Russia is keeping some of its most sophisticated capabilities “in reserve for a different purpose, for a different project, for a different operation that is supposed to come afterwards.”

In recent days Romania has detected fast-moving drones passing through its airspace, one of which crashed in Croatia after passing through Romania and Hungary. Long intimidated by Russia, hybrid warfare increased once Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and established a de facto border just 200 miles from NATO shores.

Romania is also surrounded by pro-Russia governments, Hungary and Serbia, and a weak unaligned Moldova. While Bulgaria, its neighbor to the south, is also a NATO member, the country has heavy investment and energy ties to Russia.

The Romanian official and others who spoke to Air Force Magazine said the Romanian government views Russia in a historical context, aspiring to re-establish its historic empire with a population willing to sacrifice losses to maintain Russian greatness.

The officials also pointed to powerful Russian propaganda which has kept much of its people in the dark about the true losses suffered in Ukraine. A move to consolidate the Russian-speaking portions of Ukraine, one official said, could begin a years-long Russification of the population.

As to the repositioning of Russian troops within Ukraine, Romanian officials do not believe Putin will be satisfied seizing Eastern Ukraine or even making Ukraine a land-locked country.

“They want the whole pie, so they won’t stop,” he said. “It’s a long war.”

A Romanian defense official told Air Force Magazine that the country needed the U.S. to participate in NATO air policing for the first time.

“Romania is looking forward to have U.S. Air Force doing air policing in country,” the official said on condition of anonymity when asked if Romania sought a greater American Air Force presence.

On the morning of Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, two F-35s arrived in Romania from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany to join eight F-16s at Fetesti. The fifth-generation F-35s, from the 388th Fighter Wing at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, are no longer in Romania, but experts say they are a powerful asset both for deterrence and intelligence collection, helping Ukraine battle back Russian advances.

“You have an extraordinary collection asset airborne every time that that fighter gets aloft,” Heritage defense analyst John “JV” Venable told Air Force Magazine in a phone interview.

“It triangulates and it fixes and we’re able to provide that detailed analysis, that detailed intel, we’re able to provide that directly to the Ukrainian fighting forces,” he said. “If we continue to keep those assets there, then they get that much more of it.”

The Romanian government official said the country, which was already investing 2 percent of its GDP on defense, has committed to spend 2.5 percent and is seriously weighing an increase to 3 percent of GDP spending on defense in the wake of Russia’s long-term threat to its and NATO’s national security.

Part of that investment has been in base infrastructure used by American troops and aircraft at Fetesti, Campia Turzii, and Mihail Kogălniceanu. European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) funds have also invested in the air base infrastructure and pre-positioning used by Americans.

“If the Russians are taking Odesa, they are going to become our neighbors also on land,” the Romanian government official said. “They are taking a slice, what they can today, but they will come back because they want the whole pie.”