Pentagon Reveals Secretive New Drone the Air Force is Giving to Ukraine: Phoenix Ghost

April 21, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 6:30 p.m. to include clarifying comments from the Pentagon press secretary on when the Phoenix Ghost was developed.

The Pentagon is giving Ukraine a secretive new drone that the U.S. Air Force has developed—one that “very nicely” suits the needs of the Ukrainian military, the Pentagon revealed April 21.

The U.S. will deliver at least 121 of the new Phoenix Ghost tactical unmanned aerial systems to Ukraine as part of a new $800 million assistance package announced by Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby. But, what is the Phoenix Ghost?

“This is a drone that had been in development before the invasion, clearly,” Kirby said during an afternoon press briefing. “The Air Force was working this, and in discussions with the Ukrainians about their requirements, we believed that this particular system would very nicely suit their needs, particularly in eastern Ukraine.”

Kirby’s comments mark a slight change from those made by a senior defense official earlier in the day. In a background briefing, the official said the Phoenix Ghost was “rapidly developed by the Air Force, in response, specifically, to Ukrainian requirements.”

Kirby said he did not have an exact date for when Phoenix Ghost started development. But given that the Air Force had at least 120 to send from its inventory, “You’re not going to have 120 on your shelves if you just started buying them on the 24th of February,” the day Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

“What probably wasn’t as well worded as it should have been [is] it was developed for a set of requirements that very closely match what Ukrainians need right now in Donbas,” Kirby said, referring to the eastern region of Ukraine where Russia has focused its attack in recent days.

The exact capabilities that Phoenix Ghost will offer to Ukraine are being kept under wraps, as Kirby declined to comment. But he did say the drone is “akin” to the Switchblade drone that the U.S. has already delivered to Ukraine.

Switchblades are often referred to as “kamikaze drones” or “loitering munitions” because they are capable of flying over a target before crashing and detonating in a precision strike. Different versions of the Switchblade can fly between 15 and 40 minutes, with a range from 10 to 40 kilometers.

The Phoenix Ghost is “designed for tactical operations,” Kirby said. “In other words, largely but not exclusively to attack targets. It, like almost all unmanned aerial systems, of course, has optics. So it can also be used to give you a sight picture of what it’s seeing, of course, but its principal focus is attack.”

Kirby later added that the drone is a one-way system, meaning it is not meant to be recovered.

Air Force public affairs declined all comment on Phoenix Ghost to Air Force Magazine, referring questions to the Pentagon. An employee of Aevex Aerospace, the California company producing the drone, also declined comment to Air Force Magazine.

While the drone is currently being delivered to Ukraine, Kirby said he expected that the Air Force would use it in the future for itself.

Since Russia launched its invasion, the Department of Defense has provided $3.4 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine, including another $800 million package in mid-March, followed by another $100 million in early April. Kirby previously said the contents of those packages would be fully delivered by mid-April.

In addition to Switchblades and the new Phoenix Ghost, DOD has also provided Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Mi-17 helicopters, Humvees, artillery, and millions of rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades, among other items.

Some B-21 Bomber Facilities at Ellsworth to be Ready for 2024

April 21, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Some facilities supporting the first B-21 Raider unit at Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., are to be ready by 2024, according to Air Force budget request documents, indicating the service anticipates a swift test and evaluation program for the new aircraft.

The Air Force announced last year that Ellsworth is to be the initial B-21 operating base and the formal training unit, or “schoolhouse,” for the bomber. The base now hosts the B-1B Lancer.

According to justifications (the so-called “J-Books”) in the Air Force’s fiscal 2023 budget, just released, three military construction projects at Ellsworth are requested for a collective $328 million, including a Low Observables Restoration Facility, a Weapons Generation Facility, and a Radio Frequency Facility.

The two-bay LO restoration facility, which is to be climate-controlled and have filtration gear to support spray-on stealth treatments, is to be finished by September 2024, according to the documents. The weapons generating facility—which will assemble bombs and missiles and get them ready to be loaded onto aircraft—is to be complete by February 2026. No completion date was given for the Radio Frequency Facility, which will test the B-21’s stealth prior to missions.

The Air Force has maintained since the B-21 program began that the program would yield at least one “usable asset” by the “mid-2020s.” Lt. Gen. James C. Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, said last year that the B-21 will be available for missions “around 2026 or 2027.”

At least six B-21s are in some stage of construction, said Randy Walden, Rapid Capabilities Office director. Last year, Walden predicted that the first B-21 would roll out and fly in “mid-2022,” although in March of this year he declined to be more specific, saying only that the rollout will be event-driven, not calendar-driven.

The first B-21 is undergoing calibration tests and will soon need to be moved outside Northrop Grumman’s Palmdale, Calif., production plant for engine runs and taxi tests prior to first flight, Walden reported. There was a public rollout for the B-2 Spirit bomber in 1988 ahead of such outdoor pre-flight testing. Walden said he expected a similar ceremony for the B-21, as the beginning of powered tests will be a “historical event.” After slow- and high-speed taxi tests, the B-21 will make its first flight, likely to be a short hop to nearby Edwards Air Force Base, Calif.

Having some of the Ellsworth facilities ready in 2024 suggests an aggressive program for flight testing the B-21. The B-2 was tested for four years between 1989 and 1993, when the first operational example was delivered to Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., the sole B-2 operating base and schoolhouse.

Air Force leaders have emphasized in recent months that the B-21 is the centerpiece of a strategic “family of systems” that will include uncrewed escort aircraft providing sensory data, suppressing air defenses, providing communications links, and conducting electronic warfare, among other tasks. The B-21 itself was intended from the beginning of the program to be an “optionally manned” platform and capable of deploying either conventional or nuclear weapons. Besides direct-attack weapons, the B-21 is to be capable of employing stand-off missiles such as the Long-Range Standoff weapon, or LRSO. It was also designed from the outset with an “open architecture” to reduce integration risk and allow competition for future upgrades.

The Air Force plans to acquire “at least” 100 B-21s, but comments from senior leaders in recent years indicate the service is leaning toward a buy of 145 or more.

After Ellsworth, the “preferred locations” for B-21 basing include Whiteman and Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, which now operate the B-2 and B-1B, respectively. The Air Force has said it expects to retire the B-2 circa 2031 and the last B-1Bs around 2032. The B-21 depot is to be at Tinker Air Force Base, Okla.

The Air Force is also asking for $30 million to acquire acreage adjacent to the air logistics center at Tinker to house B-21 depot activities. The Air Force envisions a 133-acre campus with “21 docks and environmental shelters with associated facilities and infrastructure.” The docks will handle maintenance, “de-paint, wash, fuel, radio frequency diagnostic, and parts storage” for the Raider. The facilities will be built “in phases.” The Air Force would add 80 acres to the 53 acres it already has in the vicinity to create the campus. Consolidating all these activities in a single place will save $500 million over the life of the B-21 program, the Air Force said, and it needs to acquire the land by the end of fiscal 2023 to have the depot available when needed.

B-1 Bomber Catches Fire on Flight Line at Dyess

April 21, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

A B-1B bomber caught fire on the flight line at Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, on April 20, the base announced.

The fire started around 10 p.m. during “routine engine maintenance” while the B-1 Lancer was parked, according to a Dyess press release.

Two individuals were injured during the fire and transported to a local medical facility with “non-life-threatening injuries,” according to the release. They were later released.

A Dyess Air Force Base public affairs official told Air Force Magazine that the cause of the fire and whether the aircraft can be salvaged are still being investigated. Information on the injured individuals, including whether they were members of the aircrew or maintainers, is not being released at this time.

A 39-second video posted to the popular unofficial “Air Force amn/nco/snco” Facebook page purports to show the B-1 engulfed in massive flames. An individual can be seen running to and away from the aircraft before an emergency vehicle arrives and the video ends.

The Dyess official said the base is aware of the video and is currently investigating. She could not confirm the video’s veracity.

Air Force Global Strike Command did not immediately respond to an Air Force Magazine query as to whether the B-1 fleet has been grounded in response to the incident, but in a statement, Col. Joseph Kramer, commander of the 7th Bomb Wing at Dyess, said, “our B-1 fleet and warfighters remain ready to execute any long-range strike mission.”

“We are so grateful that all members of Team Dyess involved have been treated and are now safely back at home,” Kramer added. “Thank you to our first responders who arrived immediately on scene and executed a real-world emergency response with the same level of professionalism and proficiency as they do in training.”

Operations at Dyess are proceeding as usual, the official told Air Force Magazine, “except for that one area of the flight line.” Clean-up operations are underway.

As of September 2021, only 45 B-1Bs were left in the Air Force fleet. Air Force Global Strike Command retired 17 B-1s last year, however, the rest of the fleet is expected to remain in service until the new B-21 Raider comes online.

Defense Execs: Industry Should Collaborate to Jumpstart JADC2

April 20, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

Companies in the defense industry believe they’re better positioned than the military services to help the Defense Department link its data together as part of the joint all-domain command and control concept.

The chief technology officers of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman pointed out how their companies already work with all the services and the Intelligence Community. In an event livestreamed April 19 by the American Enterprise Institute, they said their own internal research and development to link their two companies’ platforms could pay off for the government.

Northrop Grumman’s Scott Stapp thinks of JADC2 as “the internet of warfighting,” akin to how people command and control their day-to-day lives via smartphone.

“The idea is, ‘How do you connect all your pieces so that the data flows seamlessly from any element to anything else,’” Stapp said. “They used to talk about [it being] ‘any sensor to any shooter.’ And we’ve kind of started morphing that. It’s really about the right data to the right shooter. … Weapons don’t care where the data comes from. What they need is guidance on where to go.”

Over the short term, between now and DOD’s initial time horizon of 2027, Stapp said getting JADC2 to work “means duct-taping and Band-aiding the systems you have today, tying them together so they have much better data flow, so you can get much better decision authority out of that.” Then comes “looking at how future programs will then go back and tie into that architecture.”

“If you hear [Air Force] Secretary [Frank] Kendall talk, it’s really a now-to-’27 kind of timeframe when they look at China,” Stapp said. “And then ’27 and beyond. Well, now to ’27 means there are probably no new programs of record. What you’ve got, you’re going to take to the fight.”

The two CTOs acknowledged meeting regularly with other defense industry counterparts to talk about situations in which they want to compete or collaborate.

“Setting this fabric and this architecture for JADC2 is an area that we actually really need to collaborate on,” Stapp said.

Steve Walker of Lockheed Martin estimated that the military already has 80 percent of the weapons it will have 10 years from now.

“But if you can build more of a system-of-systems approach to warfighting, the chance you’re going to be able to add effectors—say, unmanned systems—to that mix is greater. The ability to upgrade technology at the pace of technology is greater.”

Walker mentioned how the two companies “have talked about how to use your assets with our assets and provide that full picture.

“We just need to get that story, I think, more over to the DOD side,” he said.

Stapp of Northrop Grumman commended the Joint Staff’s work on the JADC2 implementation plan, announced in March, saying, “They’ve set the vision of what JADC2 really needs to look like.

“The real question is can the services pick that ball up and roll tin to actually fulfill that vision. [But] the services don’t really understand the tools in all the other services.”

However, if the industry starts “doing that on our own dime, … [then] you’ve started to connect the services together whether they knew it or not,” Stapp said.

Space Force Has No Plans to Divest Legacy Assets, SSC Boss Says

April 20, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

While the Air Force is looking to retire hundreds of old assets to free up money for new systems, don’t expect the Space Force to follow suit, the head of Space Systems Command said April 20.

Lt. Gen. Michael A. Guetlein oversees the “research, design, development, acquisition, launch, and sustainment” of the Space Force’s satellites as the commander of SSC. And in that role, he is set to help oversee the deployment of a new resilient space architecture defined by proliferated and integrated systems.

But even as the Space Development Agency—soon to transitio n to be part of the Space Force—proceeds with plans to procure dozens of new satellites, rolling them out on a regular two-year cycle, the service is not looking to divest anything, Guetlein said during a virtual discussion at the C4ISRNET Conference.

“Space is really a startup, and space is really large. So based on that, we’re really not seeing the need to divest ourselves of any legacy assets,” Guetlein said. “Additionally, satellites are on orbit for a very finite amount of time, and they will replenish themselves over time, just due to loss of fuel or loss of redundancy, etc. So we’re really not seeing the need to retire any of our legacy assets.”

Indeed, those legacy assets will still be crucial in the next few years, Guetlein said, as Space Systems Command looks to bridge the gap to 2026—the date Guetlein has set as the field command’s goal for fielding newer, more resilient systems.

“That resiliency is going to take some time to build in, and we’ll start delivering in the 2028-and-beyond timeframe,” Guetlein said. “So what do we do between now and 2028? And that’s really where we’ve been sounding the alarm on 2026” because of China‘s and Russia‘s capabilities and intent to disrupt access to space.

Should a conflict arise before 2028, the Space Force will need its legacy systems to be as resilient as possible. That’s why Guetlein has tasked SSC with more than just buying new systems.

“What we’ve asked our [program executive offices] to do, is to deliver as much capability as they possibly can from our current architecture, to support the warfighter and the nation in case we need those systems in time of crisis or conflict,” Guetlein said.

In pursuit of that, the field command has adopted a mantra, said Guetlein: “Exploit what we have; buy what we can; and only build what I must.”

With that 2026 timeline in mind, there are two main ways SSC is using that mantra to guide its approach.

“When I look at our metrics going into 2026, it’s first and foremost, how have I integrated and networked the current capabilities that I have in new and imaginative ways. And then under ‘Buy what I can,’ it’s how have I partnered with our allies, and how have I partnered with commercial to buy what commercial services and international services are available?” Guetlein said. “And then going back to ‘Exploit what we have,’ how I have integrated that better into the current networks that we have today?”

The rise of commercial services in space that the Pentagon could potentially leverage has been highlighted in recent weeks by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Satellite imagery has shown troop movements and provided evidence of potential war crimes, while satellite internet has helped to keep Ukrainians connected.

Watching all this, Guetlein said, is a reminder that the Space Force and SSC don’t necessarily have to field everything by themselves.

“I think what we’re seeing around the globe is an enormous amount of value and capability that the commercial industry is bringing to the table. With that capability, they’re building in redundancy; they’re building in resilience; and we are able to now fill gaps or even change our focus on the mission areas that the government was traditionally focused on, to allow industry to take a piece of it, while we focus on the more exquisite capabilities in the denied areas going forward,” said Guetlein.

At the same time, given the vastness of space, it’s not as though DOD can afford to cut back on any systems that provide it with situational awareness.

“Space is huge,” said Guetlein. “We will never, never have enough space domain awareness. And in order to be successful in space, we really need to understand what’s going on in our environment, both manmade as well as environmental.”

Between building new systems, acquiring commercial capabilities, and looking to use the current satellites in new and innovative ways, the amount of funding needed isn’t likely to go down anytime soon. The tension between sustaining old systems and developing new ones with limited funds is what led to the Air Force’s strategy of divesting legacy platforms.

But Guetlein sounded confident that Congress will continue to pay for the Space Force to sustain and modernize at the same time.

“We’ve experienced an enormous amount of bipartisan congressional support across the Space Force,” Guetlein said. “As we’re going into the next generation of space capabilities, we’re having very, very transparent dialogue with our congressional stakeholders to explain to them what the current vulnerabilities are of our current systems, how we are going to fill those gaps in the future, … and how we’re going to transition from the extremely capable systems that we have today, that are world class, to this new, more proliferated, resilient, redundant, integrated network architecture going forward. And through that transparency, we’re seeing an enormous amount of cooperation and collaboration on the Hill.”

Spangdahlem Spins Up to Counter Russian Threat

April 20, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

SPANGDAHLEM AIR BASE, Germany—Not long ago, Spangdahlem Air Base in western Germany felt like a quiet retreat, surrounded by verdant hilltops with tiny church steeples in the distance. That all changed when Russia attacked Ukraine and threatened the NATO alliance.

Nearby Ramstein Air Base could not keep up worldwide transit operations and deliver air power to the eastern flank of the alliance. Spangdahlem could.

“Spangdahlem definitely has the perception of being a little Sleepy Hollow out here,” said 52nd Mission Support Group commander Col. Betsy Ross. “Which is great, because it’s a good cover for all the great operations that we do.”

In a matter weeks beginning in December 2021, Spangdahlem absorbed three squadrons to help conduct air policing on NATO’s eastern flank, and it forward deployed assets to allied nations closest to the threat.

Practiced in the quick preparation for large numbers of personnel and equipment after the Afghanistan refuge and welcome operations, old barracks were outfitted with hundreds of new beds; cots were set up in schoolhouses; and hot meals and showers were assured for hundreds of arriving service members.

Spangdahlem received F-35s from the 34th Fighter Squadron at Hill Air Force Base, Utah; KC-135s from the 92nd Air Refueling Squadron at Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash.; and six EA-18 Growlers from the Navy’s Electronic Attack Squadron 134 (VAQ-134) at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Wash.

The air base also facilitated the movement of people and equipment to the eastern flank for forward deployments at air bases in Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

In one two-week period, the 2,200-strong Installation Deployment Readiness Cell saw a 600 percent increase in its operations with no additional manpower, receiving cargo packs and aircraft and conducting refueling.

Ross said Spangdahlem’s history of innovative thinking and the importance of the moment got the job done.

“We are making history right now,” Ross said. “To actually put into action what we’ve trained and talked about for so long, to put it into action, and to be able to execute those missions is super exciting. And to me, that is the biggest morale boost.”

In making the decisions necessary to meet the need, she reflected on lessons learned from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, spoken at the 2018 Air & Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

“There are two types of doors. One you can go through, and if it doesn’t work out, you can come back and start over. And the other door, when you go through, there’s no turning back. So, you’ve got to be right,” she recalled.

“When we look at innovation, it was like, where can we go in and out and make adjustments?” she said. “And, where do we have to get it right from the start, so that we don’t impact mission capability?”

Democracy in Danger in Eastern Europe

While Spangdahlem was spinning up air power projection to the NATO eastern flank allies, the NATO countries of Eastern Europe were seriously concerned about their own territorial integrity and the threat to their young democracies, within Moscow’s sphere of influence not four decades ago.

“The war is not about only Ukraine. It’s about Europe. It’s about Euro-Atlantic security. It’s about securing our future,” Romanian Deputy Defense Minister Simona Cojocaru told Air Force Magazine during an interview at the Romanian Ministry of Defense in Bucharest.

“It is clear that we share the U.S. view regarding the need to defeat Putin’s Russia,” Cojocaru said, emphasizing the Russian threat to the Black Sea NATO countries. “There are no signs that Moscow will change its strategy to expand its influence in the near abroad and beyond.”

In Poland, which has experienced centuries of Russian aggression and occupation, historical lessons have led to bold decisions in national defense.

“There is a very sober awareness that our reaction must be very decisive here,” Polish Chief of the Air Force Directorate Brig. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak told Air Force Magazine in a secure video interview conducted at the Powidz Air Base in central Poland.

“Hopefully, with the support from NATO and from the free world, Ukraine is going to win, or Ukraine is going to at least sustain this invasion and hold that invasion far away from the NATO border,” he said.

A Lithuanian defense official who spoke to Air Force Magazine by telephone echoed the sentiment from the perspective of the Baltic states. The heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad sits on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania.

“This is also a vulnerable area and sort of easy hanging fruit from the military perspective,” the official said. “This air policing mission is important in order to switch to the air defense mode, in case it’s needed.”

Changing Missions at the Speed of Need

Squadrons that deployed to Spangdahlem were shifted from other missions, or planned training and exercises, to meet the need in Eastern Europe. That meant positioning tons of support equipment, with C-17s and C-5s flowing into the small air base’s single 10,000-foot runway and 10 parking spots.

“We’ve been really busy,” said Maj. Angele Montfort, director of operations at the 726th Air Mobility Squadron.

“March is when we had to support the KC-135s as well as the F-35s, the F-16 mass movement to Poland, and then we had a short-notice POTUS support mission,” she said, referring to support equipment tied to President Joe Biden’s visit to Poland.

Meanwhile, Spangdahlem is still supporting missions in the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command areas of operation.

The 92nd Air Refueling Wing had been preparing for a six-month deployment to Turkey when its assignment changed and members quickly switched gears to support the NATO eastern flank mission.

“This is different in a lot of ways,” said Capt. Hunter Warrick, the KC-135 aircraft commander responsible for the first NATO air policing refueling mission that flew out of Spangdahlem.

“We’re basically figuring this out as a squadron as we go,” he said, describing quick integration with maintenance, force support, security forces, intelligence, and other units on base to write a “new script.”

“Literally, the first day we got back, we were talking for hours on, ‘Hey, here’s how the next guy is going out, and here’s what they need to expect,’ and kind of building this package,” said Warrick.

2nd Lt. Hannah Bergman, an intelligence officer, said the crew reached out to half a dozen organizations across the base to prepare for the first mission, noting that the team sent out the first lines three days after arriving.

“We’re pretty much setting up shop from nothing, like no products built for intelligence to support them, and nothing that we’ve been used to doing,” she said. “So, it took a lot of different support assets from the base to actually help us set up and prepare.”

The KC-135s are now refueling air policing missions in the skies over Poland.

“For the conflict going on, a lot of what we’re worried about is just making sure that we contain that conflict,” Bergman explained.

“We don’t want this to impact our NATO allies, especially on the eastern flank,” she said. “The whole reason we’re here is for deterrence and defense of NATO right now.”

Ross said the Spangdahlem mission is historic in that its successful execution is a strong sign of U.S. reassurance to NATO allies in the face of unpredictable Russian aggression.

“This is a turning point in our world dynamics, and things will never be the same as they were,” she said. “To be part of that, and to make sure that we are contributing to protecting our NATO alliance and protecting democracies around the world,” is something everyone takes pride in.

Biden Administration Says U.S. Won’t Test Certain Anti-Satellite Weapons

April 19, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

The Biden administration says it’s ruled out conducting one type of anti-satellite weapon test.

While on a visit to her home state April 18, Vice President Kamala Harris gave a speech at Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., formalizing the administration’s prior admonishments of an ASAT test by Russia in 2021.

Harris committed the the U.S. will not “conduct destructive, direct-ascent, anti-satellite missile testing.”

She said the decision was one step toward “writing new rules of the road to ensure all space activities are conducted in a responsible, peaceful, and sustainable manner.”

Harris cited not only Russia’s recent test, but also its conduct in Ukraine. Russia launched a missile from the ground to hit a derelict Soviet satellite in November 2021, creating a field of more than 1,500 pieces of debris big enough for the Space Force to track. China, similarly, performed a direct-ascent ASAT test in 2007.

Harris linked rules and norms in war—and the “brutality” of the Russian military’s acts in Ukraine—to rules and norms the administration wants to foster in space.

“Rules and norms provide us all with a sense of order and stability,” Harris said. “As we have seen in Ukraine, Russia has completely violated the set of international rules and norms established after World Ward II, which provided unprecedented peace and security in Europe.”

Having chaired one meeting of the National Space Council, Harris said she made rules and norms “a point of emphasis.”

“A piece of debris the size of a basketball, which travels at thousands of miles per hour, would destroy a satellite,” Harris said. “Even a piece of debris as small as a grain of sand could cause serious damage.”

Her speech did not rule out other types of potentially destructive ASAT tests, such as co-orbital ASATs in which satellites are basically sent to collide with other satellites, nor weapons such as lasers, or cyber hacks from the ground, that could theoretically disable a satellite, essentially turning it into one big piece of debris.

The U.S. isn’t alone in seeking a new set of norms. Established in December, a United Nations open-ended working group on reducing space threats through norms, rules, and principles of responsible behaviors first met in February for an organizational session and plans to hold its first meeting in May.

Six Months Late to a Deal, F-35 Lot 15-17 Contract Negotiations Drag On

April 19, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

A contract for F-35 Lots 15-17—in negotiation for more than a year, and six months past its expected conclusion—continues to elude Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office, due to disagreement over the costs of the pandemic and inflation, Lockheed leaders said April 19. Despite the U.S. military services asking for fewer F-35s in the fiscal 2023 budget request, Lockheed thinks it can maintain its target of delivering 156 of the jets per year with foreign orders.

“Our teams are diligently working with their [JPO] counterparts to achieve closure on his critical milestone,” Lockheed CEO James D. Taiclet said in a quarterly earnings call with reporters.

“Both parties are striving to finish negotiations in the near term. So we remain confident in our four year projections,” he said, but “there could be a timing impact” due to “financial constraints.”

Lockheed Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave said it might cost “$500 million plus” to keep the line moving without a contract in the second quarter.

“If it further extends, obviously, that will go up,” he said. Pressed for details, Malave said, “We probably have to revisit later in the quarter to see how things are progressing, and I think we can update accordingly then.” He said the company is “encouraged that we can be able to close this in a relatively short period of time.” The amount he quoted, “we would recover in the balance of the year, assuming a successful negotiation.”

Asked to explain the long delays in the contract negotiations, Taiclet said it was due to “significant changes in the underlying cost factors of bidding for the next three lots … So, yes, we’ve been going at this for a number of quarters, but that’s because the cost baseline has been moving during that time and we both have to agree on where we think it’s going to end up.”

Those factors include “COVID impacts” and “inflation, which is even a more recent phenomenon,” he said. Lockheed has to get feedback from all aspects of its supply chain, “to see what those impacts are going to be.” The government then has to verify that those estimates are legitimate, and while that’s happening, inflation rates move again, Taiclet added.

“So, this has been longer than normal because the underlying ground has been shifting on [the] most important assumptions that go into the negotiations.”

He said Lockheed’s negotiating strategy hasn’t changed, and that is to do so “on the basis of actual costs information and data that provides our shareholders a fair margin … as well as a government-attractive contract.”

He added, “We need to coalesce on a cost base.”

The F-35 JPO did not offer a comment by press time.

Lt. Gen. Eric T. Fick, F-35 Program Executive Officer, acknowledged at a March defense conference that no deal was yet in sight, after he predicted a handshake agreement as early as last October.

Both Lockheed’s Gregory M. Ulmer, executive vice president for aeronautics, and Fick have said that the unit price of the F-35, which fell below $80 million each in the last contract, will go up in Lot 15-17 due to inflation, more sophisticated equipment, and a smaller overall buy, but they have not said how many aircraft are under negotiation.

“There’s also … some lower quantities that were initially projected for that lot,” Taiclet said. “We’re working with the U.S. government and also the international partners to see if there’s ways to bolster that number. But right now, what we’re working with is a lower number in negotiation.”

Lockheed set a goal of 156 F-35s a year and Taiclet said that goal can still be reached, given that Germany has opted to buy 35 F-35s, and Canada is moving toward a purchase of 88 aircraft. Other countries are also showing interest, he said.

“We’re pretty confident in that 156 per year plan that we had laid out,” Malave said, based on “the international customers” Taiclet mentioned, which “provide … a little flexibility to really shore up that production schedule.”

That, and 19 additional aircraft that showed up in the Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy unfunded priority lists make Lockheed “very comfortable in our ability to maintain” 156 a year, Malave said.

Taiclet said Russia’ invasion of Ukraine clearly sets the stage for higher defense spending, but it’s too soon to estimate by how much. He said the new emphasis on high-level deterrence is consonant with Lockheed’s product line, so the company is likely to do well, in the coming years. He also said it’s clear the current Administration is disinclined to look favorably on mergers and acquisitions, so Lockheed will be spending most of its free cash on stock buybacks.

The Federal Trade Commission sued to block Lockheed’s acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne in February, and Lockheed elected to drop the merger.

Taiclet said Lockheed expects continued growth and noted a $4 billion classified program contract in the first quarter, saying that the secret project is “one of the pillars of growth” in the company.

As Drones Grow More Sophisticated, Export Rules Still Stuck in 1980s, Experts Say

April 19, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

As the Air Force moves forward with plans to use unmanned aircraft systems in new and increasingly powerful ways, the U.S. is still stuck in terms of how much it can share those capabilities with allies and partners—creating a dangerous vacuum that China has moved to fill, analysts say.

For years, the U.S. has followed a non-binding, voluntary, informal agreement to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology—the Missile Technology Control Regime formed in 1987 defines unmanned systems as nuclear missiles.

As a result, proposed foreign military sales of drones have frequently been shut down by the State Department. This approach, however, is becoming increasingly untenable as more nations and non-state actors field drones and the systems become more integral to the U.S.’s own planned future force, argued AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Senior Fellow Heather Penney in a virtual press conference and presentation debuting her new policy paper, “Building Alliances and Competing with China: The Imperative for UAV Export Reforms.”

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies rolls out its newest policy paper: Building Alliances and Competing with China: The Imperative for UAV Export Reforms by Heather Penney, Senior Resident Fellow (top left), The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Paul Scharre (top right), Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for a New American Security and Mitchell Institute dead retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula (bottom) join the discussion.

It’s an issue Penney has raised before, pointing out that because of the U.S.’s continued deference to the MTCR, China has stepped up to become the provider of drone technology for many countries. As a result, the MTCR’s goal of preventing the proliferation of such technology has failed—at least 95 militaries have an active UAS inventory, Penney noted, with at least 32 importing Chinese drones.

This has follow-on effects: less money for the defense industrial base, less influence on how other countries are trained and use their drones, and decreased interoperability. Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, noted that in the fight against ISIS, the U.S. refused to sell Jordan drones. The result, Penney added, was that Jordan bought CH-4 drones from China.

“We couldn’t integrate with Jordanian CH-4s because we knew that China was gathering intelligence and collecting on those Jordanian operations and therefore would be collecting on us as well,” Penney said. “So it really does drive a wedge in our ability to operate with our partners.”

As long as the MTCR continues to define UAVs as missiles, there will be resistance within the State Department bureaucracy to approve any export sales, said Paul Scharre, director of studies at the Center for a New American Security.

“We’ve seen successive administrations make changes to their U.S. export policies, trying to overcome these hurdles. The Obama administration did. The Trump administration did,” Scharre said. “We haven’t been able to break through this deadlock inside the bureaucracy. And fundamentally, what we’re going to need is a reinterpretation of the MTCR to get us to that point.”

The current war between Russia and Ukraine highlights both the potential benefits and challenges facing drone exports, the experts said.

On one hand, Turkey has sold Ukraine TB2 drones, which “have been very effective enabling the Ukrainian military to be successful against a much larger force,” Penney said.

On the other, the U.S. has touted its own transfer of Switchblades to Ukraine, with officials referring to them as unmanned aircraft systems and media reports frequently referring to them as “kamikaze drones.” In actuality, Penney said, the weapons are loitering munitions—they fly above targets and then hit targets, detonating as they do so. Referring to Switchblades as drones creates confusion, Penney argued, and gives the illusion of progress on the drone export issue.

“I think that it’s important that we understand that aircraft [are] vehicles that are recoverable,” Penney said. “They’re not one way, they’re not weapons, but we can bring them back and reuse them—that we define those as aircraft.”

This will be increasingly important, Penney and Scharre said, as UAVs develop and grow more sophisticated. Already, the Air Force has said it plans to develop unmanned “teammates” to fly alongside manned platforms. Optionally piloted aircraft, which can be manned or unmanned, are becoming more widely available, including the Air Force’s own QF-16. And completely autonomous systems are starting to emerge, too.

As these technologies develop, the U.S. should retain the ability to export them to partners, the analysts said. But that doesn’t mean they should be available to anybody.

“It comes down to being discriminating regarding what the needs of our allies and partners are, how they plan on using it, and what’s in our interest and how we plan on operating and integrating with our partners and allies,” Penney said, comparing the issue to being selective with which nations can buy the F-35 to safeguard its advanced capabilities.

“The simple answer is that we should transfer them when it’s in our interest to do so,” added Scharre. “ … Just like any other technology, when there are advantages to us selling to partners, then we should be willing to do so and not allow ourselves to trip over our own feet in terms of getting stuck in the bureaucracy.”