Past NATO Commander: US Can Deter Russia in Ukraine By Taking These 3 Steps

Feb. 22, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

The U.S. can deter Russian aggression in Ukraine now with a series of steps ranging from economic sanctions to changing fighter pilots’ rules of engagement, retired former commander of U.S. European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Philip M. Breedlove told Air Force Magazine.

After recognizing the independence of separatists in the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent in armored vehicles and tanks late Feb. 21 in what he called a peacekeeping force.

The move followed a sustained period of heavy shelling by the separatists against Ukrainian targets in recent days, an escalation that Ukrainian government forces have not retaliated against.

Russia has provided support to the separatists since 2014, but Putin only recognized their independence hours before sending in troops.

Under the circumstances, the U.S. “could put ready and capable forces forward right now,” said Breedlove, who was NATO commander from 2013 to 2016, when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea.

Breedlove, who also served as commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, pointed out that the U.S. had already begun to move forces to the eastern flank of NATO. Small Army Stryker units have deployed to Romania and will soon deploy to Bulgaria; 4,700 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division have deployed to Poland; and a total of 24 F-15s and F-16s have deployed on air policing missions to Poland and Romania.

Yet Breedlove said U.S. deterrence strategy must advance in the face of Russia’s active military intervention.

Breedlove said the U.S. and NATO should move to active deterrence.

“Right now, we are in passive deterrence, and Mr. Putin is in active measures,” Breedlove explained. “That’s why I think we see, now, Russians moving into Ukraine.”

Sanctions

Breedlove recently visited Ukraine with a delegation of former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine and Russia. There, he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian defense officials. In recent weeks, Breedlove has also advised senior U.S. military and NATO officials on the crisis, calling for immediate economic and military adjustments.

“In order to move to active deterrence, I believe we need to start putting sanctions on immediately,” Breedlove said.

President Joe Biden has promised that any “further invasion” of Ukraine by Russia would trigger economic sanctions, and Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby has said any movement by Russia into the Donbas region, which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists, would constitute such an invasion.

However, Biden walked back his commitment to sanctions in January, suggesting that a “minor incursion” would trigger a lesser response.

Breedlove called on the administration to match rhetoric with actions and stay tough on Russia before Putin pushes farther into Ukrainian territory.

“So, let’s have it. Let’s see it. Bring it. Keep your promise,” Breedlove insisted.

Air Defense Rules of Engagement

Breedlove said another adjustment that the U.S. must make now is to change the rules of engagement under which Air Force fighter jets in Eastern Europe fly—from air policing to air defense. This would help to better defend NATO allies and to protect American pilots.

“Right now, for instance, if a U.S. fighter is flying over Poland and encounters Russians doing nefarious business, and he’s on an air policing mission, the U.S. pilot can do nothing, nada, zilch unless he’s shot at. Unless fired upon, he can take no action,” Breedlove explained.

“They are entirely a peacetime set of rules of engagement. They have no applicability at all in a conflict,” he continued of the air policing missions. “They are dangerous to our pilots in wartime. We need to move from air policing to air defense rules of engagement.”

The former NATO supreme allied commander said making the change is “eminently important” and that not doing so would be “dangerous for our people right now.” Making the change would also constitute an active deterrent measure.

“That’s a big signal to Mr. Putin,” Breedlove said.

Strong Reply by NATO

The retired four-star Air Force general also called on NATO to act as an alliance in its troop and airpower deterrence measures rather than individual member states offering security enhancements as the United States and other allies have offered to eastern flank members nearest the Russian border.

It matters that “NATO gets its skin in the game with NATO forces, not individually offered NATO contributions, bilaterally to the effort, which is what’s going on now,” Breedlove said.

Breedlove applauded German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement, in response to Russia’s entering the Donbas region, that Germany would rescind certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. It will be harder, Breedlove said, for European states dependent on Russian petroleum and gas to make similar decisions.

But Breedlove believes a unified NATO reaction, in addition to military signaling, are the only effective responses to deter Putin from further invasion.

Putin, in moving his “peacekeeping” forces into the region, indicated they may go beyond demarcation lines in the Minsk protocol of 2014 that quelled the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.

“If we bring it ‘weak’ now, then we might see him expand those pockets,” Breedlove said. “I am a bit optimistic that we’re going to get a better NATO reply here than not.”

Austere MQ-9 Operating Location Offers Opportunities for Young Airmen

Feb. 21, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

AIR BASE 101, NIAMEY, Niger—Domed tents pumped full of cool air are lined in neat rows that resemble a neighborhood at Air Base 101 in the sub-Saharan country of Niger, a base for MQ-9 operations against a panoply of terrorist groups operating in the region.

Between the tents, quick-footed Airmen grab water bottles from shaded pallets as they crunch over gravel. Heavy, armored vehicles meant to protect convoys from attack by militants enter and exit the compound through cement barricades, passing security checkpoints lined with concertina wire.

Airmen cannot even see the flight light from here. To execute the mission, Airmen at the small operating location rely on a deep sense of purpose and a family atmosphere. Growth opportunities for young Airmen also help them overcome the challenging work environment and off-base restrictions.

“I’d say morale out here is high,” the forward aviation detachment commander in Niamey told Air Force Magazine on a recent visit.

“It’s always nice to kind of see that what you’ve done, results and a physical thing happening,” explained the special operator, who spoke on the condition that his name not be used. “Planes taking off and landing, coming back with post-mission intel. Yeah, that’s always good, it’s rewarding.”

The 33-year-old commander said the leadership opportunities for young Airmen at the African base have challenged him to manage both assets and people.

“It’s really working with people that makes this rewarding,” he said of a bare base where parts may take weeks to arrive, and mail takes even longer.

“Managing physical assets is a lot easier than emotional human beings,” he said. “Just dealing with people is a challenge on those hard days when something goes wrong, but on the good days, it’s also very rewarding to see that you help somebody grow.”

The distance from home and other bases, and the security and work challenges, make Airmen rely on each other. It requires young leaders with emotional intelligence to listen, coach, and help younger Airmen grow.

“As much as there’s challenges and difficulty here, it opens up your opportunity to engage your personnel more, and work through whatever issues,” security forces flight commander Capt. Andrew Cook told Air Force Magazine, seated in a black leather lazy-boy chair jammed in the recline position in the narrow corridor of a makeshift library tent. Outside, lizards darted underneath picnic tables where off-duty Airmen told stories and shared laughs.

“Even with the challenges that are present sometimes, … it forces people to lean on each other and say, ‘Hey, like, can you help me out with this?’” he said.

CMSAF Bass visits West Africa, Historic First — Senior Airman Tyler Sipe, 409th Expeditionary Security Forces Squadron small unmanned aircraft system operators, briefs Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass about the RQ-11B Raven, a small hand-launched remote controlled unmanned aerial vehicle, at Nigerien Air Base 201, Agadez, Dec. 20, 2021. The 409th Air Expeditionary Group supports intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, aircraft launch and recovery elements and base operating support integrator (BOS-I) capabilities for U.S. forces in Niger while working closely with and enabling their Nigerien Armed Forces counterparts. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Ericka A. Woolever.

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force Joanne S. Bass visited Air Base 101 and Air Base 201 in Agadez, in central Niger, in December, braving sandstorms and oppressive heat to hear what Airmen needed.

“It was actually really windy,” she said in a phone interview with Air Force Magazine. “I didn’t anticipate the sandstorms that we used to get out in like Afghanistan or Iraq.”

The wind and sandstorms delay, shorten, and sometimes cancel MQ-9 sorties. They also increase the frequency of aircraft maintenance and repair.

“A more remote location … comes with its own set of challenges, and some of those challenges we’ve identified and we’re working,” Bass said of the supply-chain complaints that she heard.

“If I had to characterize the morale that I experienced during my visit, it very much was more tight-knit, family-oriented, where everybody knew each other. And that makes for good morale,” she added. “Most of them were all excited that they’re able to get out there and have a sense of purpose to a broader mission within their own organization.”

With just 800 Airmen combined on six-month rotations on the two bases, duties demand creativity and skills that go beyond the job description.

“This is definitely the most involved mission that I’ve been in,” said a navigator who serves as detachment commander at AB201, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“My pilots that come through training, we can have a second lieutenant that is the aircraft commander, which you don’t get anywhere else,” he said. “They will be at the controls of an MQ-9.”

While coming in with little real-world experience to a position of high responsibility provides its own set of challenges, successful pilots will control an asset on the leading edge of technology and innovation.

“You’re remotely piloting this aircraft that is in very high demand,” he said.

“Every combatant commander is just wanting more and more support from MQ-9,” he said. “It’s a great, great opportunity to get some experience, get your foot in the door, and gain skills and qualities and knowledge that will benefit you for the rest of your life.”

Fixing Spectrum Warfare Won’t Be Quick—Creativity Needed

Feb. 18, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Long neglect of electronic warfare and electromagnetic spectrum operations won’t be reversed quickly, especially without funding priority—and creative approaches are needed to get back in the game, experts said. However, there is top-down urgency to find solutions.

“I think we’re all in agreement: We’re not moving fast enough,” said Maj. Gen. Daniel L. Simpson, Air Force assistant deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, during an AFA Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event Feb. 17. “So now the question is: What do you do? What do you go after to bring additional credibility to an integrated deterrence” while working under an interim national security strategy?

Simpson said Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has rejected the Air Force’s draft electromagnetic spectrum, or EMS, operating concept—the implementation plan for the EMS strategy. Kendall is “not shy about giving feedback” and said the implementation plan “looked too much like a strategy” and lacked “hard impact, quantitative things to be able to do it. So the team is going back” with a new version, Simpson said. It’s “in draft and is working through all the widgets right now.”

Fixing EMS operations will require boosting the number of people working in the field, Simpson said.

“We have to … make up for 20 years of neglect,” he said. EMS operators “are very low density and in incredibly high demand, and that’s only going to increase in the future.” It will also require new investments that, so far, haven’t been a high budget priority.

“We’re limping along,” Simpson asserted. “There’s been no investment there.” In electromagnetic attack, “we absolutely gutted that, with the exception of the EC-130,” he said. The transition to the EC-37 is in progress, but “we’re trying to go to a platform-agnostic, software-designed, multiple-capable” system in which EMS capabilities are resident on practically all platforms.

“We need to go fast,” he insisted. “We’re two decades behind now. We’ve ceded that territory to the Chinese, and, to a lesser extent, the Russians, so we are going to have to get after that.”

“We need to put the dollars into this mission area,” said retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, noting “there’s a rumor” that the EC-37 buy will be cut, “in an era where the planned buy is only a fraction of what we need.”

The Air Force’s 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing, stood up in 2021, should become operational this fall, said Col. William Young, unit commander. The criteria to declare initial operational capability are “the three C’s,” he said: “capabilities, connections, and cognitive.” The wing is developing mission data and ‘missionware’ applications, he said, “which is a new way to rapidly deliver capability to aircraft in the same way that, today, you get apps to your iPhone.”

The wing is expanding networks and gaining “the ability to stitch together different heterogeneous systems that were never … intended to work together” but have always had “that latent capability to be combined into a composite system that gives you the tools you need to solve a particular, focused warfighter problem.”

The wing is also applying artificial intelligence and machine learning to the field—the “cognitive” aspect,” he said.

“So, if my team is able to pull all that together … that’s a positive step in terms of getting to where we want to go.”

Young added, “this is not PowerPoint stuff that’s years out … We’re doing that today, right now.” He said things are going faster because of the “alignment from the very top of the Air Force.” Kendall has made a priority of “cognitive EW (electronic warfare),” he said, and there is also a top-level push from Gen. Mark D. Kelly, head of Air Combat Command. The wing has also built a strong connection with the Air Force Research Laboratory, he said, and “that’s how we’re doing it.”

Panelists were divided over a long and vexing question: whether EMS is a fighting domain like air, sea, space, and cyber. But Young said the key thing is to “lay out a theory of victory and a mechanism [by which] to achieve that. And those ideas are absolutely in our concept.”

Deptula noted that new technologies offer “completely new and innovative ways of creating desired effects on our adversaries” and that, absent substantial new funding for EMS operations, that’s where the Air Force will have to look.

“We need to get away from … [the idea that] I need to have a jamming platform to be able to target radars,” Simpson said. “Can I get after that effect with some other means? Can I use the electromagnetic spectrum to deliver a cyber effect? That may give me some persistence … whatever the target may be.”

By having a “platform agnostic” system that is “reprogrammable” and to which “I can apply algorithms,” “we may be able to get to a solution that is adaptable” and useful both in everyday competition with adversaries as well as in wartime. They must also be “survivable in the high-end fight.”

“When I make investments,” he said, they have to meet Kendall’s insistence that they “scare China” and have a deterrent effect.

Young said one idea is to turn cellphones into jamming devices. All cellphones, he said, are essentially “programmable radios” and could be made to broadcast in such a way as to generate jamming power.

“We might be able to take advantage of the transmit capability to flood the airwaves at particular frequencies,” he said.

Retired Maj. Gen. Kenneth R. Israel, former assistant secretary of defense for airborne reconnaissance, said modern air defenses are pushing “Blue” forces “further and further back.”

“If you’re pushed back far enough, there’s not an onboard jammer that’s going to be able to make a difference …Physics is physics.” So the solution may be, as Kendall has suggested, “maybe you load up unmanned systems—an expendable platform—with a jammer.” It’s been done before, he said, and Kendall’s new unmanned escort for fighters may be the avenue.

“Sending these assets out to go ahead in a one-way mission, neutralize these key platforms that our adversaries are using and kind of blind them. And that’s what we want to do.”

But “fundamentally, the whole portfolio is short,” Israel said, “and you’re not going to be able to make significant improvements on the cheap. You just can’t do it.”

An increasing number of members of Congress appreciate the need for investment in EMS operations, he said, but in an environment with a half-year continuing resolution, “if you’re trying to recover from an era of thinning resources in this mission area, it’s going to be a hard sell when you basically have no discretionary income.” Inflation will only compound the problem, he said. Consequently, “you have to look for high-leverage areas.”

Israel said he’s hopeful that Kendall and Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, are laying out sound technology plans for high-payoff investments. But such Pentagon leadership is hampered by vacancies.

“We’re missing key advocates in key positions” in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, he said. Filling that vacuum, to some extent, he said, has been U.S. Strategic Command.

Ken Dworkin, an electronic combat expert at Booz Allen Hamilton, said, “I think Congress does get it,” but “I don’t know if that translates into … effective action.”

Fifteen years ago, he said, there was a hearing to discuss an electronic warfare report, which “concluded that what needed to happen was” an increase in EW practitioners—a new “pipeline of training on EW”—along with increased investment in systems and a boost to research-and-development budgets expressly for electronic warfare. A year ago, in similar testimony, a congressman lamented that the comments were the same and wondered, if another report comes out 15 years from now, if “it won’t say the same thing? I think that was kind of a mic-drop moment.”

Biden Convinced Russia Will Invade Ukraine ‘in the Coming Days’

Feb. 18, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

President Joe Biden said he is convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine in a matter of days, unleashing what Biden called “a catastrophic and needless war of choice.” However, Biden promised that U.S. troops will not be sent into Ukraine and that the U.S. will be prepared to defend its NATO Allies.

The president and administration officials have been de-classifying intelligence and warning for weeks of mounting Russian capabilities and plans for a “false flag” operation to justify a military incursion into Ukraine. The U.S. has also sent more than $650 million in defensive equipment, including anti-tank Javelin missiles, to Ukraine while approving the third-party transfer of air defenses from partner nations. To shore up NATO’s eastern flank, the U.S. has deployed fighter jets to Poland and Romania along with 4,600 U.S. troops while continuing to press for a diplomatic resolution.

Biden said that while he was convinced Putin had made the decision to invade Ukraine, Putin could still avert war. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had agreed to meet Feb. 24 in Europe under the condition that Russia did not invade Ukraine.

“As of this moment, I’m convinced [Putin has] made the decision,” Biden said, citing U.S. intelligence. “Until he does, diplomacy is always a possibility.”

Biden’s remarks, delayed by nearly an hour, came after two phone calls to Europe. The first was with a bipartisan group of lawmakers accompanying Vice President Kamala Harris and Blinken at the Munich Security Conference, and the second was with a group of NATO heads of state.

Biden said NATO members are resolute in their unity and commitment to impose severe sanctions on Russia should Putin invade Ukraine.

“We continue to remain lockstep at NATO despite Russia’s efforts to divide us at home and abroad,” Biden said. “The West is united and resolved. We’re ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.”

Consistent with administration messaging, Biden said Russia was already spreading disinformation and attempting to create a casus belli for entering Ukraine, including by accusing Ukraine of shelling in the southeastern Donbas region, where a kindergarten was hit Feb. 17.

“These are consistent with the playbook the Russians have used before, to set up a false justification to act against Ukraine,” Biden said. “We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly not because we want a conflict, but because we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.”

While promising not to send U.S. troops into Ukraine, Biden committed to “defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security.”

Russia is believed to have some 190,000 troops surrounding Ukraine and poised to move on the capital, Kyiv. Biden said Putin will order the invasion within days.

“We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” Biden said. “Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table.”

The New Tape Test? Leaked Waist-to-Height Ratio Scores Are ‘Pre-decisional’

Feb. 18, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force has not made a final decision on what the new body measurement test will look like, despite documents recently leaked online, the Office of the Air Force Surgeon General told Air Force Magazine.

On Feb. 16, the unofficial Air Force amn/nco/snco Facebook page posted images of an email and charts detailing a new waist-to-height ratio measurement that would take the place of the oft-criticized tape test, which was separated from the annual fitness test in December 2020.

According to the leaked images, the new measurement involves simply dividing an Airmen’s waist measurement by their height, both in inches. Any number between 0.40 to 0.49 would be deemed low risk; a number between 0.50 and 0.54 would be deemed a moderate risk while still meeting Air Force standards; and any number at 0.55 or above would be deemed high risk.

The accompanying email states that the new assessment will start to be rolled out in July 2022, with follow-up assessments every six to 12 months, depending on the individual Airman’s score.

“Repeated failed assessments could result in discharge from military service,” the email claims.

When contacted by Air Force Magazine to confirm the images’ veracity, the Air Force surgeon general’s office stated that the “Air Force is now developing policy for the Waist-to-Height Ratio. Any documents published online are pre-decisional and subject to change.”

In November, the Air Force did announce that the surgeon general had settled on waist-to-height ratio as “the best available method for assessing body composition” and promised guidance on the new measurement process in the coming months.

Officials have also previously noted that while tape tests are no longer part of the new-look PT test for Airmen, official Pentagon guidance requires the Air Force to measure its force for body fat composition.

For years now, Airmen—along with other service members—have complained that circumference tests such as waist measurement don’t always accurately measure body fat. In some cases, service members say they have excelled during PT tests, only to fail the body measurement.

And the Air Force isn’t the only service to propose changes to the system. The Army is currently conducting research on how best to measure a Soldier’s body fat, including the use of advanced body scans—but some of the equipment costs tens of thousands of dollars.

The Space Force, meanwhile, is still crafting its own fitness and health program, but Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman has said he would like to take a more holistic approach, reducing the importance of “this single moment in time that has such an impact over one’s career.”

Air Force Academy Cadets Report Most Sexual Assaults Among Service Academies in 2020-2021

Feb. 18, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

Reports of sexual assaults of service academy cadets and midshipmen have risen steadily since 2014. Defense Department officials said Feb. 17 that the record number reported in the most recent academic year could be due to a higher proportion of victims making official reports—something the academies have encouraged.

But the officials won’t know if that’s what happened in 2020-2021, the year with the most reports ever at 131, until 2023. Meanwhile, the most recent data, from 2018, showed the estimated prevalence of sexual assaults, reported or not, also going up—to “a high point,” in fact, said Nathan W. Galbreath, acting director of the DOD’s Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office.

Of the 131 reports in 2020-2021, 52 were at the Air Force Academy; 46 were at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point; and 33 were at the Naval Academy. Court-martial charges were preferred in 11 of the 131 cases.

Galbreath spoke to members of the press in a briefing Feb. 17, presenting data that showed steep one-year increases in reports of sexual assaults at all three service academies in 2020-2021. But the one-year increases appear artificially steep because the coronavirus pandemic had cut the prior year short.

The Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office tracks numbers of cases reported from year to year and also surveys academy students in even-numbered years to ask about experiences of sexual assault and harassment. Survey responses help to estimate the prevalence of sexual assault and sexual harassment for a sense of how much really happens rather than just how many cases get reported.

The office couldn’t do a survey in the spring of 2020, when students were sent home because of the coronavirus pandemic, and the 2022 survey happens in March and April, Galbreath said. In 2018, the DOD office estimated that 15.8 percent of women and 2.4 percent of men enrolled in service academies had experienced unwanted sexual contact over the prior year—that was the “high point.”

Official reports of sexual assault across all three service academies rose steadily from 72 in the 2014-2015 acadmic year to 131 in 2020-2021.

“These are actual reports that have come in the door to either sexual assault response coordinators or military criminal investigative organizations,” Galbreath said. He said the office is aware from past surveys that “the vast majority of perpetrators” are reported to be fellow cadets or midshipmen. He mentioned that the DOD had adopted reforms to address sexual assault in 2021.

Galbreath’s presentation given to members of the press said the trend of more sexual assaults reflects “a shared challenge” nationally and at colleges.

Women enrolled in service academies were more likely to experience sexual assault since entering higher education than other college women—28.5 percent estimated among service academy women compared to 26.5 percent among all college women. The same year, DOD estimated 5.8 percent of service academy men to have experienced sexual assault compared to 7.1 percent estimated among all college men.

Galbreath said that in the past year, the academies did “some excellent work with regard to growing their prevention programs,” yet he acknowledges “there are changes that need to occur.” He said the office is working with the academies on “comprehensive prevention plans … that address not only sexual assault but sexual harassment and other behaviors that give rise to sexual assault.”

Galbreath admitted that for now, the plans are “just words on paper” and academy leaders need to make sure the plans are “part of how the academies do business in the future.” He said his office is also working on recommending to superintendents “what programs are doing well, what programs could be fine-tuned to better performance, and what programs could be discontinued because they’re not a good return on investment.”

The Air Force Academy uses a program called EAAA—Enhanced Access, Acknowledge, Act—that’s been found to be “particularly effective,” Galbreath said.

He said sexual assault is “a horrible thing to have to experience, and we are here to help make sure that it happens less often and that victims get the kind of care and support they need to recover.”

Galbreath said the office hasn’t found evidence of “undue influence on the reporting process” at the academies such as found by independent review committees that have investigated other commands.

Austin Speaks to Russian Counterpart, Promises Abrams Tanks to Poland Amid Border Tensions

Feb. 18, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke to his Russian counterpart by phone and visited Poland, the largest recipient of American troops and air combat power on the eastern flank of NATO, on Feb. 18 as administration officials indicated Russia now has 190,000 troops on Ukraine’s border.

Austin called for de-escalation, a return of Russian forces to their home bases, and a diplomatic resolution in his call with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu, according to a DOD statement. In public remarks, Austin also announced approval of a foreign military sale of 250 Abrams Main Battle tanks and other defense equipment to Poland at a cost of $6 billion to shore up the eastern flank.

“We will do what’s necessary to help defend our partners and allies,” Austin said alongside his Polish counterpart in Warsaw before visiting U.S. troops at the Powidz Air Base. Austin is expected to travel to the Baltic nation of Lithuania next before returning to Washington.

The U.S. Air Force recently deployed 16 F-15 fighter jets to Lask Air Base, Poland, from the 336th Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., and the 48th Fighter Wing at RAF Lakenheath, U.K. The U.S. also has sent an estimated 4,700 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to Poland to augment a standing force of some 4,000, part of the Army’s V Corps, which is headquartered in Poznan, Poland.

Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak called the American combat power “the biggest and the most important deterrent factor” against Russia.

“We are dealing with an attempt to rebuild the Russian empire by Putin,” the Polish defense minister said, citing Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014. “The security of Poland means the security of the entire eastern flank of NATO.”

Blaszczak said American support bolstered interoperability and lifted Poland’s plans to modernize its forces, including with the planned purchase of F-35 fighter aircraft. A sale of 32 F-35s for $6.5 billion was approved in 2019, but Poland has yet to complete the purchase. Poland’s Air Force currently consists of F-16C, F-16D, and C-130 aircraft.

The Russian Threat to NATO

Polish security analyst Wojciech Lorenz of the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw believes Russia’s troop positioning so close to NATO borders warrants the increase in U.S. and NATO forces on the eastern flank.

“If Russia invades Ukraine, it can quickly also change its force posture along the borders of NATO and EU member states. It can threaten NATO,” Lorenz explained to Air Force Magazine by phone from Warsaw.

“Poland would be the first line of defense against a potential Russian attack,” he added, describing how wealthier NATO partners have divested from heavy equipment such as tanks. “The overall strategic picture has deteriorated so significantly, that we don’t have too much time.”

The analyst said Russia seeks to divide NATO with the threat of conflict in the east, hoping to inflict economic harm with the insecurity caused by a sustained troop buildup. The European Union on Feb. 11 approved a $1.4 billion aid package to Ukraine to prevent collapse in the face of Russian pressure.

“By increasing the risk that there will be the conflict between NATO and Russia, it could hope to influence the decisions in numerous NATO member states regarding Russia’s demands,” Lorenz said.

In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent NATO a draft treaty that included barring new members from joining the alliance and pulling back NATO and U.S. forces from the most recent member states on the eastern flank. NATO’s January response to Russia included a proposal to discuss arms controls, missile defense, and military transparency. Russia’s 11-page answer, which President Joe Biden indicated he had received Feb. 16, has not been made public.

Even a prolonged Russian presence in Belarus of a month or more is possible, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko alluded to in comments Feb. 17 before traveling to meet Putin in Moscow.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have called out Russia for building up its troop, hardware, and logistics capabilities while claiming in recent days to pull back from the border. The U.S. now estimates Russia has between 169,000 and 190,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders.

Austin’s show of support for the largest Eastern European NATO ally also comes as Russia appears to be preparing “false flag” scenarios that would give it a casus belli to invade Ukraine.

In recent days, heavy shelling has taken place in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with the leader of the breakaway Donetsk region calling for a mass evacuation of ethnic Russians across the Ukrainian border into Russia.

Speaking to the UN Security Council Feb. 17, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that U.S. intelligence had unearthed a variety of potential Russian plots.

“Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack,” Blinken said. “This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government.”

The list of scenarios included a “terrorist” bombing, the discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a chemical weapons attack labeled as ethnic cleansing or genocide.

“In the past few days, Russian media has already begun to spread some of these false alarms and claims, to maximize public outrage, to lay the groundwork for an invented justification for war,” said Blinken, who is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky along with Vice President Kamala Harris at the Munich Security Conference Feb. 19.

Already, the regular use of declassified U.S. intelligence to preempt a Russian false flag operation has led some commentators to question if the U.S. is overhyping Russian intentions.

“It has some limitations,” said Lorenz. “After three or four times, it gets less and less credible.”

Austin Sees ‘Strong NATO’ as Russia Adds Troops and Air Combat Power to Ukraine Border

Feb. 17, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III wrapped up a two-day NATO defense ministerial in Brussels saying Russia’s bluff withdrawal did not fool him, and that the alliance is only stronger, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to add troops and air combat power to Belarus, Crimea, and the Black Sea to encircle Ukraine.

“In many ways, this brings Russian troops right up to NATO’s doorstep,” Austin told reporters after the conclusion of the 30-member meeting, which included sessions with defense ministers from NATO candidates Ukraine and Georgia as well as partners Finland and Sweden.

“The Russians say that they are withdrawing some of those forces now that exercises are complete, but we don’t see that,” he added.

Austin said Russia has flown in more combat aircraft, sharpened readiness in the Black Sea, and stocked up blood supplies, including adding a field hospital and pontoon bridge.

“I know firsthand that you don’t do these sort of things for no reason, and you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home,” the longtime Soldier said.

Austin also warned that the cyberattack against Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and banks Feb. 15 was right out of the Russian playbook, as are misinformation campaigns and a potential false-flag operation to prompt an invasion. The moves have united the NATO alliance and prompted the United States to move F-35s to Germany and 24 F-16 and F-15 fighter jets to Eastern Europe, as well as a Stryker unit and 8,000 Soldiers to the eastern flank.

Austin also announced a Stryker company would deploy to Bulgaria, on the Black Sea, for a joint training exercise, and that the United States would explore other ways to strengthen readiness.

“Mr. Putin says that he doesn’t want a strong NATO on his western flank. He’s getting exactly that,” Austin remarked. “I can honestly say that I have never seen the alliance more relevant and more united and more resolute than I see it today.”

Austin nonetheless said conflict was not inevitable and that the United States and NATO remain open to a diplomatic solution.

“If Mr. Putin is serious about achieving that sort of outcome, he will find in the United States, and in this alliance, no better or more serious interlocutor,” Austin said of diplomacy to diffuse the crisis. “And if he’s not, as his deeds thus far tend to indicate, it will be clear to the entire world that he started a war with diplomatic options left on the table.”

Should the Russian threat extend to the eastern flank of NATO, Austin said the United States would be prepared to “defend every inch of NATO territory.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark A. Milley followed up on the promise Feb. 17, coordinating with his British and Baltic counterparts in Estonia and Latvia with phone calls. The day before, Milley called his counterparts in Lithuania and Bulgaria, according to Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in concluding remarks said NATO had responded to a December draft treaty sent by Russia, which called for rolling back the alliance, prohibiting Ukraine and Georgia from ever becoming members, and removing missile defenses, among other demands. Russia has claimed that NATO, and by extension aspiring member Ukraine, is a threat to its security.

While the NATO “open-door” policy would not be rescinded, Stoltenberg said NATO had delivered substantive responses to Russia regarding arms control, missile defense, and transparent military activities.

“We are waiting for the response from Russia,” he said, referencing a meeting of the NATO Russia Council in January that took place the same week that Russian diplomats met with the United States in Geneva and with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.

In recent days, Moscow signaled its willingness to pursue diplomacy and telegraphed images and stories about its troops and heavy equipment withdrawing from the Ukraine border.

“Despite Moscow’s claims, we have seen no sign of withdrawal or de-escalation so far,” Stoltenberg said. “On the contrary, Russia’s buildup appears to continue.”

President Joe Biden speaking on the South Lawn early Feb. 17 said the threat of a Russian invasion remains “very high,” noting he had dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the United Nations to make a statement.

“We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” Biden said of Russian forces. “My sense is this will happen within the next several days.”

Air Force Installations Nominee ‘Regrets’ Calling for AI-monitoring of Troops for Extremism

Feb. 17, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

The former Air Force C-17 pilot nominated to oversee the department’s installations came under fire during his confirmation hearing Feb. 17, as multiple senators pressed him over an editorial in which he advocated for the use of artificial intelligence to track extremism in the military.

Ravi Chaudhary, nominated by the Biden administration to serve as assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment, and energy, tried to walk back that argument during the hearing, saying he regretted the article and pledging not to use AI in such a manner if confirmed.

Chaudhary, who also served as a member of the Senior Executive Service with the Federal Aviation Administration, penned the article in question for Foreign Policy News in July 2021, working with Ty Smith, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of CommSafe AI, a company that offers to use AI to “[analyze] workplace communications 24/7, [identify] toxic communication, and [flag] appropriate personnel in your organization before issues escalate.”

Smith and Chaudhary, who was working as an adviser for CommSafe AI at the time, wrote that “the time has come to shift the fulcrum in the battle against violent extremism from reactive to proactive, and take the fight to the extremists by doing what we always do—match superior strategies with advanced technology.”

Fighting extremism in the ranks has been a priority for top Pentagon officials in the Biden administration. In February 2021, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III ordered a DOD-wide stand down to address the issue, and in December, the department adopted a new set of rules prohibiting service members from actively participating in extremist behavior.

But this push has been met with resistance by many Republican lawmakers, who say the issue isn’t as widespread as some fear and that efforts to address it could run afoul of the First Amendment.

And in Chaudhary’s confirmation hearing, five Republican senators brought up his editorial, pushing him to promise not to use artificial intelligence to track service members’ communications and behavior.

“I think it’s a really horrible idea. Tell me why it’s a good idea,” Ranking Member Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) asked Chaudhary.

“The intent of the article was to engage in a public discussion on addressing extremism, as well as other areas affecting readiness,” Chaudhary replied. “The article fell short of that, and I regret that.”

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) compared the idea of using AI to track extremist behavior to tactics practiced by the Chinese government, prompting Chaudhary to pledge to protect service members’ rights.

“The vast majority of the men and women who serve, serve with honor, integrity, and excellence,” he said. “I also believe that the constitutional rights of our military members who serve should be protected. Period. If confirmed, I’ll follow the lead of [Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall] in addressing extremism.”

Pressed further by Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) to say that he understood “this committee would never look upon the investigation or the use of AI in the oversight of our men and women in uniform … to be an acceptable thing,” Chaudhary said that was “absolutely correct.”

While many of the questions directed to Chaudhary were focused on the editorial, he was also asked by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) how he planned to handle the issue of privatized housing for military families, in the wake of Balfour Beatty Communities, one of the largest providers of privatized military housing in the U.S., pleading guilty to defrauding the Air Force, Army, and Navy.

“Our military members and their families deserve to have well-maintained, clean, and excellent housing. Not only that, [but] a system in which their grievances can be addressed, as well as challenges that they’re meeting at the same time,” Chaudhary said. “If confirmed, you have my commitment that I will move out on this issue extremely quickly to ensure that we have the right oversight, management, contracts. Across the board, I’m going to take a top-down look at every aspect of our military privatized housing, because we just absolutely have to get this right.”