Watch, Read: Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on How the Pentagon Can Accelerate AI

Watch, Read: Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on How the Pentagon Can Accelerate AI

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and former chairman of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Board, delivered a keynote address at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 3, 2022, followed by a conversation with retired Lt. Gen. Bruce ”Orville” Wright, president of the Air Force Association. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Overhead speaker: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome AFA’s president, Lt. Gen. Orville Wright.

Lt. Gen. Bruce Orville Wright, president of the Air Force Association: Well, good afternoon. And thank you so much for hanging in there with us today. And what an honor to finish with such a strong closing presentation. I’m going to introduce Dr. Eric Schmidt for a few remarks, and then we’re going to shift to a bit of a fireside chat. And I’m going to do my best to keep up with such a bright, accomplished leader and former CEO of Google, among other things. But let me just go over a few more things about Eric. As I said, he was the CEO of Google and in various capacities served until 2020. He has also been a major bipartisan influencer in national defense and as chairman of the Defense Department’s Innovation Board from 2016 to 2020 and as a member of NASA’s National Space Council Users’ Advisory Group and as co-chairman of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Today, he continues to focus on emerging technology as the founder of a think tank that’s growing in importance, the Special Competitive Studies Project. Please welcome for the first time to our Air Force Association stage, Dr. Eric Schmidt.

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and former chairman of the Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Board: Thank you, General. Thank you, thank you. Here we go. I am so proud to have been invited here and to spend some time with you. I will tell you that with the events this week, Americans understand why you’re important. And I want to thank you all for what you do to keep our nation safe. And I mean it. 

So I had the privilege of working in the Defense Department under the secretary of defense for some years, as well as working for the Congress on the AI Commission. And we recently set up this Competitive Studies Project, which is my attempt philanthropically to bring the strategic nature of our challenges forward. It seems to me that we have a couple of things we have to talk about. One is we need a thesis of change. And in the tradition of the military, I will be direct, and I hope that’s OK.

If I look at the totality of what you’re doing, you’re doing a very good job of making things that you currently have better, over and over and over again. But I’m an innovator. And I would criticize, if I could say right up front, that the current structure, which is an interlock between the White House, the Congress, the secretary of defense’s OSD, the various military contractors, the various services and so forth, is a bureaucracy in and of its own. And it’s doing a good job at what has been asked to do. But it hasn’t been asked to do some new things.  

The Air Force is a real innovator here. In the years that I spent with the Air Force and now with the Space Force with Gen. Raymond, because the Air Force has this sort of technical capability, you’re much more likely to be the innovators across the broader defense community, which is why it’s so important to work on this. And if you look at, for example, the B-21, with the RCO structure, you ended up building a very significant support system, weapon system for the military, and you did it in a new and innovative way. My first point is, and we did this very thoroughly when I was running the Defense Innovation Board, is we need to do that systematically across all of the processes.  

And for those of you who live in the bureaucracy, which is every single one of you, you can explain in extraordinary detail how the bureaucracy works and how long something takes. And it’s taken as God given, you know, God determined that this is the structure. And if I’ve learned anything in my now 45 years of innovative tech companies is that those rules can be changed, with focus, with cleverness, and with some real buy-in. And I would suggest that if we look at the things that are missing in terms of technological innovation, they’re precisely the things that we need to actually change the system to account for.  

I walked through the trade show; it’s amazing stuff. Air Force has made a lot of progress. The contractors have made a lot of progress. There’s like two AI companies. And all I want to do is talk about AI. And by the way, they’re the little ones in the corner. And by the way, they’re the most interesting ones. I’m sorry. I’m sorry. But that’s true. To me, the question, as I look at you, is how do we get this extraordinary innovation to you in such a way that you can actually use it as part of your mission requirements? In the previous administration, people worked very hard on things like JADC2, which looks to me to be incredibly important, and all the various battle management systems. Again, the question is, how do we actually get it in your hands, get it working, get it now. I’m a person in a hurry, and you are too.  

So I think that my suggestion would be that the Air Force think about the B-21 example but apply it to things other than bombers. Like, let’s try to do the same thing for software. Well, every time you try to do something in software, one of these strange scavenging groups within the administration takes your money away. 

It’s insane. And by the way, we did something called a swap study, which I’m very proud of, and one of our rules was software is never done. So if you’re a person who accounts for something that has to be done, you’re always unhappy. Because software is never done. It’s a process of continuous improvement. And I will tell you that, and I’ll talk about AI in a minute, the core issue here in the military is you don’t have enough software people. And by software people, I mean, people who think the way I do. You come out of a different background, and you just don’t have enough of these. These are hard people to manage. They’re often very obnoxious, sorry, welcome to my field. They’re difficult. They’re sort of full of things, but they can change the world and a small team can increase your productivity of whatever you’re doing.

And it’s stuff like logistics. I was trying to figure out one day how many people move around the DoD every year, and my estimate was about 500,000 people physically move. That’s my number; it’s probably not correct. But think about the logistics and the software. Well, that’s a very interesting problem. Think about all the parts; think about all the logistics, right? We understand how important that is in war. Anyway, I can go on about that.

Now, why is software so important? It’s because the next battles will be fought based on software supremacy. And they really will be. And you understand this. You’ve heard it, but you don’t have it yet. I worked very, very hard to support a project called Maven, which I thought was a very important breakthrough project with basically, with the Joint AI Center. And that’s now in very success, and from what I can tell, in very successful classified use in the right ways. And that’s an example of something where you pick it, and you fund it, and you weight it, and you build it, and you build the constituencies, and then you have it.  

And I feel very sorry about our men and women in uniform, who are excessively trained, who spend all day looking at screens doing something that a computer should do, how incredibly mind-numbing, and these are people who serving our nation. And then they’re not going to reenlist because they don’t want to keep looking at the screen. I mean, why can we not fix that?

Now why is AI so important? It’s because AI is a force multiplier like you’ve never seen before. It sees patterns that no human can see. And all interesting future military decisions will have as part of that an AI assistant. I wrote a book with Dr. Kissinger on this called ‘The Age of AI.’ And I’ll obviously recommend you read it. Because we talk a lot about what happens when you have these very, very powerful AI systems that people can depend on. And so the simple answer in AI is that it will improve weapons targeting; it will improve all sorts of accuracy and things that you care about a lot. You need AI supremacy with respect to autonomy.  

When I first visited AFWERX in Tampa somewhere, a lot of the focus was around building these autonomous systems. Now it’s real. Now you have this notion of a joint model in the air with assistance. How is that autonomy going to work? And by the way, the real problem you have is that you don’t have enough bandwidth between them, which no one ever tells you this. You actually, your networks, excuse the term, suck. You got to get the networks upgraded. And you just have to because all of these things depend on that kind of connectivity, right?  

As a story, we went to Afghanistan, and when we were, during the war, and one of the generals got up, and he put up a classified diagram of how all the different systems talk to each other. I’m sure you all have seen this diagram. And I go like, ‘Oh my God, right? Can we not do this better?’ I mean, come on, these are tactics. But the real leadership is this ability to do both precision targeting but also precision analysis. And the power of that is enormous. Now, let’s imagine what’s going on with our friends in China. So they basically take all of our, we open source everything, and they build it, and they’re building better surveillance technology against their citizens, something we wouldn’t do. What do you think their battlefield surveillance situation is? 

I don’t know. I haven’t been briefed on that. They didn’t show me their classified documents the last time I was in China. My guess is, and I’m guessing, they got some pretty good stuff. So that’s going to be a competitive issue. So my point about AI here is that you’re, to be very blunt, you don’t have enough people, you don’t have the right contractors, and you don’t have the right strategy to fill in this. And these battles over things like Maven and ‘JAIC’ were hard fought, and they’re really important. We need 20, 30, 40 such groups. More, more, more. And as that transformation happens … the people who work for you, the incredibly courageous people, will have so much more powerful tools. 

I want to take two more points. And then I think it’s probably more interesting to hear questions from you all. I’m very concerned that the concept of an OODA loop, which is something you all understand, is not understood by anyone else. And maybe because it’s the acronym sucks or something, but you get the idea. And it makes perfect sense if you’re a human that everything is designed around the OODA loop. So one of the things that I did is I got one of these virtual demonstrations of a nuclear attack, and how long does it take for the missile to get from the offender to us? And how do we react and so forth? And it’s all very relaxed, I mean, it’s obviously tense, because it’s being done in human time. We have to wake the president up. Well, how long does that take? Well, 20 seconds, or 30 seconds, we have enough time. But in this new world of battle, you’re not going to have that 20 seconds. And in fact, one of the major issues that we talk about our AI report is this question of automatic weapons systems. 

I’ll give you the simple example. There was a war in the future. And the war consisted of North Korea attacked America. America attacked back. China decided they did not want to have this war at this time, and it shut the North Korean side. Therefore, America stopped. The entire war happened in three milliseconds. How are we going to operate that? How are you going to do human in the loop? How are we going to think about that? But that’s the future. I’ll give you another example. You have a captain or admiral on one of the ships with an Aegis system and all that. And the AI system, which doesn’t exist yet, but let’s say it gets built by all these smart people, is sitting there and it says, ‘Captain or Commander or Admiral, you have 23 seconds to press this button or you’re dead.’ Now is that human control? We have to think about this. What human, which one of you would fail to press that button? I think you would, because that’s how these wars will be fought, especially with the presence of hypersonics, which as you understand, are both very fast, but they can also azimuth from different directions. So we’ve got to get our military doctrine and our thinking about that right. 

And then the final comment I wanted to make is about centralization and decentralization. I grew up as a computer scientist in a completely decentralized world. And one of my contributions was to promote the internet in the way that you all hear about it. Today, the internet is highly concentrated. It’s highly centralized around these large companies of which I’m proud to be a graduate from. That’s not what we thought it was going to be. We thought the internet was going to be all interconnected. 

And so this has been bothering me, and you’ll see the relevance in a sec. We all think that the systems are either centralized or decentralized. They’re in fact both. So the ideal system looks something like this: We put up 1,000 drones. We ship them to do whatever they’re going to do. We accept 20 percent of them will be shot down or fail or what have you. The other 800 are seeking their own outcome, whatever it is, but they’re being monitored by a centralized system. It’s interesting that in my little understanding of military doctrine, I think that is the U.S. doctrine around our commanders in the field. These are young men and women who are like lieutenants, and so forth, who basically have a great deal of autonomy, which is why our military is so incredibly powerful. And yet, we haven’t replicated that in our management culture. It seems to me that you want to change the attitude of the structure, and therefore the attitude of the infrastructure, to reflect this dichotomy, centralized and decentralized.

So we have extraordinarily powerful assets in the sky, but we don’t have very many. If I were doing this, what I would do is I would make 1,000 of them, allow 200 of them to be shot down, and I would take these much less expensive, much less accurate ones, take software, merge the images, and I’d probably get an image that’s pretty good. So again, you see how the thinking is different. And the same is true if you look at your notion of hybrid, instead of having—I’ll make this up; I don’t know what your actual plans are, for obvious reasons—an F-35 and five drones, why don’t you have an F-35 and 100 drones or 500 drones or 1,000 drones. Think scale with control and decentralized behavior. Thank you very much. 

Wright: Well, thanks, Dr. Schmidt. You know, when you talk about your, really your passion for innovation, your passion for changing things, really your passion for more effectively smacking bad guys. You got a lot of people in the room.

Schmidt: There seems to be an increasing number at the moment.

Wright: “You got a lot of people in the room that would share that with you. So I’d like to start a bit on your, obviously you’ve got a great understanding of the OODA loop, but I would share with you in my own experience, and I’ll give you a bit of background. We lack, we lag in our acquisition OODA loop. How do you get from constantly updated warfighter requirements, threat informed, to those systems that we must have with the advanced technologies that our war fighters need and get those systems fielded. And I’ll give you one example. And then you can go from there. 

I only read part of your book so far. But the part that focused on national security, what resonated with me is holding targets at risk. Left of launch, immediately after launch, lots of targets to hold at risk, and my experience is mostly North Korea and China. In fact, at one time when I was living in northern Japan, and I saw when the wing commander, North Korean shot a Taepodong right across the top of our house. So it’s near to my heart. And that’s the experience that’s out there forward-deployed today. But I have to tell you, and then and you can take off from this, as I read your book, for those forward-deployed forces, like numbered Air Force commanders, Joint Task Force commanders, Air Expeditionary Wing commanders, for them to pick up the phone and say, “Here’s what I see as a requirement.” I know, not just about the missile itself that’s about to launch. Pretty good idea who’s going to do it by unit. But to get that phone call built into the acquisition system as you work with Bob Work. I’m not sure how you fix that. So how do you fix the acquisition loop? Because there’s a lot of folks that would like to put AI on the target acquisition and target tracking and hold targets at risk tomorrow, but some thoughts in your experience. 

Schmidt: So a number of people are in the room who have worked on acquisition even longer than I have. And the acquisition problem is a well-known and understood problem for at least 50 years. And there have been many attempts of addressing it. And I think when you have such a large bureaucratic problem with so many different stakeholders, you’re not fundamentally going to fix it as an architecture. You’re going to have to adjust it. You’re going to have to make corners. And one of the principles of decentralized leadership is to allow corners of innovation. And the Air Force should properly be proud of the Skunk Works model. And the Skunk Works model in the ‘60s was interesting because it was run by a set of colonels, right? And I don’t exactly understand how politically they managed to get the freedom; maybe you were part of that. But somehow they managed to do it on a cycle that was a yearly cycle rather than a 10-year cycle. 

We looked at the weapon systems, and Frank looked at this with me at the time, and all of the weapon systems are taking longer every generation. That’s an indication of a governance problem. Though, as we know, the way the major primes work is basically there’s a contest. We’re not allowed to collaboratively joint design with them, which is the first thing that I would do, but you’re not allowed to do that. And then there’s a couple of years of trials. And then there’s an award and then there’s a dispute. Well, you’ve added five years to the whole development cycle.

So what I think, and the people that I’ve worked with in the Congress believe, is that we need to pick some projects … where we can try some of these new management techniques around the management OODA loop. I’m interested in missile defense. I think missile defense is a good example where you could build some businesses that are new and that uses autonomy, uses various clever ways of targeting, and I’m worried about what the Chinese are doing. And again, you would know more than than I. 

But I would pick a couple of areas. And try to get a consensus that we’re going to try this here. Because in a bureaucracy, you don’t want to bureaucracy to block all progress. But you have to allow them to have their concerns. So give us this corner for experimentation. And then you guys can keep doing what you’re doing. That’s how I would do it.

Wright: It’s a great point.

Schmidt: And that corner should be determined by the Air Force and OSD. You know, what, what are the highest priorities?

Wright: I think you also share our passion, passion many of us have for constantly connecting the warfighters, especially the most current warfighters, to their generational cohort in industry. They speak a different language to each other. So as you can imagine, program managers, engineers, we have MIT, Cal Poly engineers, and Northrop Grumman, Boeing and Lockheed, just as smart generational cohort counterparts, flying combat aircraft in the cyber fight, certainly among our Guardians. That seems to be a real opportunity for them to connect more frequently, more persistently. Some thoughts?

Schmidt: I think there is a, with the tragedy in Ukraine, you’re now seeing the tech companies actually doing the right thing. What a shock! I think there is good news out of this terrible tragedy, that I think that people have kind of understood what we collectively have all understood is how important what you do is, and I think there will be a change from that. As people see the consequences of inaction. You know, the sort of ‘la, la, life is good.’ Life has conflict.

Wright: Staying on that theme. It sounds exciting, your Digital Service Academy, is that right? And it starts to get at many of your points in your presentation. I think we’re on the same sheet of music, the secret sauce, the asymmetric advantage we have in this country in deterring, facing threats are that next generation of 20- and 30-somethings, empowering them.

Schmidt: Yeah, and what’s interesting is I spent some time meeting with people who left the military and worked. I did this both at Stanford and also at Google. And these are extraordinary people that you all have produced. The problem is they don’t work for you anymore. Right? Aside from that, thank you very much. But they’re like the best employees I’ve ever seen. So thank you. So we have to come up with a retention strategy, because these are people who care a lot about public service. And what they really want is they want to work on interesting stuff. And the military, and in particular, the Air Force and the Space Force, you’ve got interesting stuff. If you can’t get these guys motivated, guys and girls, there’s something wrong. I mean, these are among the most technically challenging problems. I mean, who doesn’t want to work on rockets, space, missiles and jets? I mean, come on?

Wright: Well, that’s a great point. You know, it would be novel. But, for example, if we have a classified exercise, and I know in your travels around the world, you got insight to exercises like Terminal Fury, certainly our exercises across Europe and NATO exercises. Did you see a place based on your experience at Google, that you just said, ‘I wish I had a young engineer from Google with me to meet the young captain or staff sergeant, so that they could talk to each other?’

Schmidt: That was my experience every hour. And we went to 100 different bases. And what I would do is I would basically say to people, ‘Show me the actual engineers.’ And what would happen is because I was perceived as high ranking, which I always thought was entertaining, they would have the top person and then they would have the top number twos, and then they would have the top number threes, and then they would have the two engineers. And so I, of course, would ignore everyone and talk to the engineers, being polite while I did that. And one of the engineers was working on something that they’ve been told to do, and the other one would be leaving. 

 So that’s how serious this problem is. If you care about things like auditing and accounting and so forth, you need these people. And you don’t have a way of—now I talked to the president, I talked to the secretaries of the armed services and so forth. And I complained to them about the HR system, and they said, it can’t be changed. OK? So if the top people in our government can’t change the HR system, we got a problem. So another, if I can just be incredibly blunt, you’ve got to figure out that the people that do stuff that I do are like doctors in the sense that they’re specialists, and they want to be doctors, right? You don’t, the military doesn’t take these, again, beautifully trained medical people, you don’t just transfer them out to other activities. They have a career path. And they’ll stay, because your doctors stay because they believe in your mission. They believe in you. They believe in your culture. It’s not about compensation. Everyone’s obsessed about compensation, which is always an issue. People want to serve. 

And I will tell you that the military has gotten used to this notion—I’ll make a broad criticism—that people are fungible. You have all millions of people who come through every few years, and they, you know, go through the system. They’re educated. It serves our nation, blah, blah, blah. I want us to have a specialized group, a technical group. The Navy has a little bit of this, the Air Force, I met with the Air Force Academy technical people. I’ve never seen people as good as that. I know you have them. Right? I used to wonder, do they not have them? OK, I mean, did they like forget? Right? You do have them, but you don’t grow them. And you don’t keep them. If this were a business, what you would do is you would do a ranking of the people that you need against the secretary’s priorities, against the SecDef’s priorities. And you’d say we’re going to make sure we have more of these people and the other people, well, we’ll deal with that later.

Wright: Sure. Sounds like we need the Dr. Eric Schmidt exercise series where we constantly bring in that group of people. It seems like when we get them into a realistic exercise, then they find common cause and common calling. They bond.

Schmidt: And everything you said is correct. And what’s interesting, I did this AI Commission, which was a blast, and bipartisan, lots of different viewpoints; we visited everybody. The No. 1 problem in the government as a whole: talent. You know, we love to talk about strategy. And we need more money over here, and by the way, we do. And we need more partnerships over here, and yes, we do. And we need more of this over here. And every state has to have its money, and all of that’s fine. But what we don’t have and we need a lot more is the kind of talent to drive this world. 

One-fourth of our recommendations were talent related. Right? We made a proposal for what you all would think of as a reserve corps of technical people that would work directly with you in various ways that will look an awful lot like the reserves, even though these are civilians. We made a proposal for a civilian technical university, very similar to the military academies with four years of training and then, you know, four or five years of service to anyone in the federal government in these technical areas. 

Once again, we presented these things. We talked to all the senators. We talked to the president. We talked to the White House. Everyone said yes. Like, where is it? About a third of our recommendations got into the NDAA, which I’m told is a record. But what about the other two-thirds? Where is the action? Where is the sense of urgency? I spend all day thinking, we’ve got to make sure our crypto stuff is correct. We got to make sure that our national security is correct. We’ve got to advance AI. We’ve got to get our surveillance stuff faster. We’ve got to work on our satellites and get them faster. Where’s the urgency in our government? I know it’s here. I’m not criticizing you. I’m criticizing other folks. So we’re clear.

Wright: I have to ask you this question. I have actually been able to talk to Dr. Bob Work a bit about this. So one of the outcomes unintended, maybe outcomes of Goldwater-Nichols was to essentially expand the OSD staff. So that happened post-’86. In the three or four years prior to ‘86 is when we built the 117. And you reminded me when you talked about Kelly Johnson’s Skunk Works. We built the 117 in about three years in the classified way. And to know that the action officer in the Pentagon was a major, and only he briefed the secretary of defense. Well, that couldn’t happen today. So did you run into that, as you talked through some of your Defense Innovation Board stuff.

Schmidt: We did, and Bob is a fantastic servant of our nation and my colleague for many years now. You got to decide who gets to decide. And I want to be careful not to criticize the mistakes of other services. But you can imagine there are other services that have built systems that were designed for 20 years ago, where the systems don’t work, they’re getting canceled, and all the people who made those decisions are retired or have unfortunately passed away. That’s not accountability. So the problem you have as a manufacturer is your design cycles are getting longer. That notion of responsibility is getting longer. The who decided is longer. 

One of the SecDefs, and I served for four, it’s a separate issue, gave me an assignment to go look at a particular weapons system. And I went and visited the weapons system. I won’t go into the details, obviously. And I listened to all the arguments, what the issue was, and I reported back to him. And he said, ‘That’s not what we asked for.’ And I said, ‘No, the contractor has in writing that this is what you asked for.’ And he goes, ‘OK.’ So he then comes back, and he says, ‘Yes, we asked for that. But we didn’t mean it, because the person who asked for it didn’t understand the trade-off.’ 

And the particular issue had to do with a security rule that drove the cost up by a factor of 100. And it was not, in my view, applicable to this case. I’m trying to speak in general terms here. So what did I learn from this little, this one little Eric assignment, right? If you want systems, have all the people in a room and make all the trade-offs right in front of you. Right? And one of the trade-offs is time. And the fastest way to get something cheaper is to do it faster. Which doesn’t make any sense. And again, there are experts here in the room who can speak about why this is. But I would much rather have you all be on an innovation cycle every year, where we do something interesting every year. And I think people are aware of this general strategy. 

But on this OSD question, you’re not going to solve this problem with having larger organizations and move them around. You’re going to solve this problem by authority. So in the Skunk Works case, you had a colonel, major, what have you. Have an admiral; have a general; I don’t care. The important point is have one and then give them broad objectives, and then let them oversee the trade-offs. And hold them to what those trade-offs are. And instead, when I was talking to the acquisition people, there are 30,000 acquisition specialists, each of them optimizing various components. That’s not the way you would run it.

Wright: Great points. Did you have a chance to get out to the Air Force Weapons School at Nellis and be involved in a Red Flag and watch how, when we decentralize execution authorities, and we really cultivate very smart young men and women across all specialty codes—fighter, bomber, airlift, missile—that when they come together to take on a pacing threat like China, they’re in the room talking about tactics and talking about best employment techniques, given the weapons systems they have. But did you kind of look at that and go, I need a few more my Google folks in that discussion?

Schmidt: Again, my message is the same. We need more of this specialized talent, and we need to organize it to deploy it. At Nellis, we visited the RPA pilots and all of this. And I was sitting there talking to one of them, and I said, ‘Well, how often?’ And he showed me how he flew and explained it all to me. It’s all very interesting. And I said, ‘Well, how often does this system get upgraded?’ And he said, ‘I don’t know. Maybe every couple of years.’ He didn’t know. And I thought, that’s terrible. You have essentially a software system that you’re going to upgrade on every couple of years.

So again, I think if you take my mindset and you apply it in the following way, I want rapid innovation. I want fast product cycles. I want a couple of groups over here that are doing really crazy stuff. Right? And you limit them in budget, and you limit them in impact, and then you’ve got a chance. I do think that there is a cultural and structural problem in the military that goes like this: I want autonomy for you all, I want you all to be able to make every decision on your own. In practice, because there’s consequences to the decisions that an individual makes that can have national repercussions. Somebody’s got to be watching. Right? 

So this is, we were in Qatar, and the Air Force general, who was an amazing guy, was showing us the battle management plan. And we went to the CAOC and all of this. And he authorized a strike on a particular thing. And what’s interesting to me, and this, again, had an impact. One of the assistants, he has a lawyer next to him, one of the assistants shows him a picture of the site. And the general correctly says, ‘When is this picture from?’ He says, ‘It’s about six months old.’ And so he, in a nice way, said, ‘How is this possible?’ And, ‘I want somebody in a jet with eyes on it now. And I want them to confirm that the target is still there.’ And then he looks at his lawyer, and he says, ‘Is this a legal transaction?’ And the lawyer says, ‘Yes, sir, it is.’ And he authorized it. And it was for a modestly important target in his war campaign. 

What I learned from that was, you’re going to have to have top-down control when kinetic force is used. But you’re also going to have to find a way to give autonomy to the person to do it. And that is at the root of your cultural problem. You want the centralization for protection of the institution for good reasons. But I also want the autonomy for our men and women to do what they need to do and do it quickly and well.

Wright: Thanks sir. As we wrap up, thanks to Gen. Brown’s leadership and support, the collaboration between AFA and certainly Gen. Raymond and as we follow Secretary Kendall’s One Team, One Fight mantra, the Air Force Association put together the General James Doolittle Leadership Center, and pretty good history of innovation: 16 B-25s off a carrier for the first time, go west, drop bombs and do your best. Never done before. When you think about that mission order, it’s pretty amazing. And I think sort of defines innovation.

Schmidt: But it also defines courage.

Wright: Yes, sir.

Schmidt: And I think I’d like to say once again that I don’t have your courage. But I do have admiration for you for what you do. And again, this week is a great reminder of why what you do is so important, why the issues that we’re discussing need to get addressed, because this is not the last challenge to American leadership. It’s only the next one.

Wright: Thanks, sir. Well, please join me in a round of applause to Dr. Eric Schmidt. And as a small token of our appreciation to celebrate our 75th anniversary…

Schmidt: And thank you to the Air Force Association. Let me know how I can be helpful. Thank you. Thank you all.

Watch, Read: Special Operations in the Peer Fight—What’s Changing and What’s Staying the Same

Watch, Read: Special Operations in the Peer Fight—What’s Changing and What’s Staying the Same

Stuart Pettis, the Air Force Association’s director of aerospace education programs, hosts Lt. Gen. Tony D. Bauernfeind, vice commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, and Lt. Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command, in a discussion about “Special Operations in the Peer Fight at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 3, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Stuart Pettis: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I’m Stuart Pettis on behalf of the Air Force Association. It is my very distinct pleasure to host today’s panel on Special Operations in the Peer Fight. We are very privileged to have two outstanding Airmen with us here for our discussion. Lt. Gen. Jim Slife is a 1989 graduate of Auburn University. He has over 3,100 flight hours in multiple aircraft. Lt. Gen. Tony Bauernfeind is the vice commander, Air Force Special Operations Command. The general is a 1991 distinguished graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and has 3,500 hours in multiple aircraft. Gentlemen, to get started, are there going to be any significant changes in SOCOM and AFSOC now that the nation has shifted its focus from counter-VEO to great power competition?

Lt. Gen. James C. Jim Slife: Thanks. So let me start by saying two things. First of all, you people need to get a life. I brought a major with me, so I would have an audience of one, and I can’t believe all of you think that this is the most exciting thing going on here right now. So I would just tell you, you probably need to get life. No. 2, joint all-domain multicapable AI. Just want to get that out of the way right up front, so we can move on with talking about all the other things.

So your question, Stuart, was, do we see any changes as we you know, move to the next operating environment? I would tell you, the answer is absolutely yes in some ways. What’s not going to change is that at the center of our value proposition—and I think Gen. Bauernfeind would say the same on behalf of all of U.S. SOCOM, but certainly for AFSOC—the center of our value proposition is the Airmen in AFSOC. That is not going to change. That has been the thing that has been our competitive advantage since the very first Air Force special operations were conducted back in the 1940s. And none of that is going to change going forward. Now, are the ways that we do it going to change? Absolutely, yes. You know, AFSOC is blessed, from a hardware perspective, to operate the newest fleet of airplanes of any MAJCOM in the Air Force. I mean, essentially, every platform in AFSOC is a post-9/11 acquisition for AFSOC. And so we’ve got some great tools.

The analogy that I would sometimes use is, you know, sometimes when you are going to dinner, you go to the grocery store, and you get the buggy, and you walk down the aisles, and you say, you know, ‘ribeye, potato, asparagus, key lime pie, bottle of wine,’ and you go ring it up, and then you go make the dinner you want. Sometimes, what you do is you go home, and you open the refrigerator, and you stand there and stare at it. And then you open the cabinet, and you stand there and stare, and you try and figure out, ‘What am I going to make with the ingredients that I have?’ And I would tell you that this is a place and time where AFSOC is looking at what is in the kitchen and figuring out new recipes to make with the ingredients we have because we’ve got great ingredients. We’ve got capable platforms. We have the best Airmen that I could ever ask for. We just need to think about the recipes we make a little bit differently. So yeah, there’s going to be a lot that changes as we think about our value proposition going forward. But what’s not going to change is at the heart of it; it’s all about the Airmen.

Lt. Gen. Tony D. Bauernfeind: “Thank you, Gen. Slife. From SOCOM’s perspective, I want to double down. On behalf of Gen. Clarke, absolutely. The No. 1 priority is always our teammates—Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines—that are out there making the mission happen every single day. And there’s a little bit of this concept that great power competition or strategic competition is new to SOCOM. But we have to remember that SOF was born in great power competition. That was really when we saw our growth come about. And yes, the last two decades have been laser focused on counter-VEO operations. But I would offer that since 2018, when Secretary Mattis put the NDS out to start focusing again on great power competition, strategic competition, now integrated deterrence, that that is when we started pivoting.

And in SOCOM alone in an operational perspective, in FY 22, over 30% of our operations will be against great power competitors to assure allies, to make sure we’re out preparing the environment, to make sure we are forward where we need to be to have the effects to provide the options that the nation needs. And I will tell you as we go into ’23 and ’24, that needle is going to continue to swing for all of our legislative missions. As an example, of one of our missions that has been a big point lately in great power competition is information operations. Last year alone, over 40% of our information operations were end missions against great power competitors. So from an operational perspective, not only is change going to happen, but change has been happening since 2018.

Now, let me talk to you about where we’re going with modernization. On a modernization front, that change has also been happening. Since 2018 to ’21, SOCOM has spent about $13.2 billion modernizing our force across the enterprise for great power competition, which equates to about 20%, excuse me, 26% of our annual budget. And I will tell you, without getting into the details, but ’22 is going to get us well north of 26, and ’23 is going to be even more. Because we realize that there are capabilities that we have to invest in now to make sure that the great Airmen that we have—Sailors, Soldiers, Marines—when they’re conducting missions in the future, they’re going to have the modernized capabilities they need in the future, whether that be 25, 26, 27, but the needle’s moving.

Slife: Can I, let me just follow up, you know, one thing that is definitely going to change, I think, across probably all the components again—I’ll speak specifically for AFSOC—because you know, historically SOF has played a role as a supporting element to the joint force. SOF opens windows of opportunity for the broader joint force. SOF brings unique capabilities, sometimes exquisite capabilities that don’t exist elsewhere in the department in support of the broader joint force. Over the last 20 years, in many ways, SOCOM SOF has become the supported force in the counter-VEO campaigns that we’ve been fighting. And so part of what is changing inside of AFSOC is this mentality that we need to be thinking about not how do we as AFSOC, not how do we be the Air Force component of SOCOM—we’ve done that for 20 years, and we’ve been fantastic at it—but how do we be the SOF component of the Air Force? You know, how do we go from being the Air Force component of SOCOM to being the SOF component of the Air Force, opening windows of advantage for the joint force? And, for us, that’s our Department of the Air Force teammates in the Air and Space Forces.

Pettis: So, gentlemen, when we look to the future, the security challenges posed by violent extremists will remain constant. How does SOF intend to sustainably address that security challenge as well?”

Bauernfeind: Well, from SOCOM’s perspective, as the coordinating authority for counter-VEO for the Department of Defense—countering violent extremist organizations—that is still one of our top priority areas. And even though we’re going to have 30, 40% of our operations focused on great power competition, that means 60, 70%, it’s going to sustain counter-VEO. What it does mean, though, is we’re going to stay focused on counter-VEO. But we’re also going to make sure that we’re using our existing resources against those prioritized threats. Those threats that have the capability and the intent to attack our homeland—our national interest. And so we have been laser focused and making sure that we have the right capabilities, the right force structure and the right partnerships forward. Because this is not only a United States mission, but it’s also making sure—or a DOD mission—but it’s also making sure that we have all the right partners with us moving forward as we target and disable and disrupt those VEO organizations. And two key partners in that I would highlight are our interagency partners, and SOCOM is blessed to have an outstanding liaison network through the entire governmental—excuse me, the entire governmental agencies—to make sure that we are tightly lashed with our key teammates that are also focused on VEO.

And then the second set of teammates that we’re tightly lashed with are our allies and partners. Because many of these VEOs are not just attacking U.S. interests and the U.S. homeland, but they’re also going after other nations’ interests as well. And again, SOCOM is blessed with wonderful allies and partners in our J3I—our international division of our SOCOM headquarters—we have 28 international partners that live with us, work with us, is on our staff, working closely to make sure that all of our VEO operations are closely coordinated and aligned with their national interest as it moves forward.

“And we also have a wonderful organization forward-based called Operation Gallant Phoenix, where we forward have international partners and interagency partners forward, enabling that key intel sharing for primarily legal finishes. Because at the end of the day, SOCOM’s perspective is ‘we’re agnostic on the finish.’ It could be a kinetic finish, but it can be just as effective being a legal finish by another nation holding their personnel accountable for the actions that they’re moving forward.

Slife: I would tell you from an AFSOC perspective—really an Air Force perspective—in the aftermath of 9/11, you know, we did not have, we the Department of Defense, did not have a network targeting methodology. This was something we built in the, you know, early 2000s. You know, it really was hitting full stride by 2006, 2007, where we built this very effective—what some have called ‘surveillance strike complex’—where, you know, we’re able to action intelligence on tactically relevant timelines. And that entire surveillance strike methodology that we built after 9/11 was heavily, heavily dependent on airpower. And so we would have a, you know, a target that we would surveil with airpower. And when we brought the assault force to bear on those targets, there would be an entire stack of airplanes over the top of that target, you know, close air support, reconnaissance, ISR, jamming. I mean, you name it, there would be a stack of airplanes 10,000 feet high over the top of these targets.

“And in the future operating environment—which frankly, I would tell you is the current operating environment—that stack of airpower is not going to be there. We’re not going to be able to rely on having a stack of airpower over every single target that needs to be actioned. And so, for us, as we think about how are we going to prosecute counter-VEO targeting methodologies in the future, from Airmen’s perspective, it’s all about collapsing that stack. You know, fewer airplanes that are multirole, that have the ability to execute those missions in multiples. That’s really a centerpiece of how we envision ourselves prosecuting counter-VEO campaigns from an Airman’s perspective in the future operating environment.”

Bauernfeind: I’d like to riff off of that, if I could. And that takes us to some of the efforts in SOCOM that we’re focusing on our modernization aspect. And I’d bring up three major programs that we’re focusing on that have direct ties to counter-VEO but have collateral effects to the great power competition. The first is, as Gen. Slife said, you know, how we are approaching the ISR perspective. We have realized, after two decades that we became very air-focused—that the sensor had to be in the air. And we’re realizing with the explosion of other means to collect information, that it’s less about the platform and more about the information. So one of Gen. Clarke’s top acquisition priorities is what we’re calling next-generation ISR. And there will be airborne platforms to support this. But it’ll also be how do we weave in the information we’re getting from the space environment? How are we getting information from the human environment? How are we getting information from the publicly available information environment? And that, that’s great, but that’s a flood of information that our great intel professionals have to work with.

And that takes us to our second focus area. And this, we’re investing heavily in making sure that we’re moving forward in the world of data—our data advantage, data networks—to make sure that we are postured, whether it be in the cloud or whether it be the right algorithms of how do we bring automation—AI, ML—with the flood of data that’s coming forward to give that information in a timely perspective for the operators to make timely decisions as it goes forward?

And then the third one, I want to highlight to Gen. Slife’s great point about, you know, combining platforms is Gen. Clarke’s top acquisition priority is Armed Overwatch. As we move forward with Armed Overwatch, it’s realizing that we will still have forces on the field that need that ISR to support that ground-scheme maneuver, that need that cast when they need that ability as it moves forward. And so we realized that as the services are girding up to focus more heavily for great power competition, that we have an imperative to make sure that we still have aviation platforms that support that need for those isolated teams that may be in West Africa, East Africa, somewhere in the Middle East where we won’t have large arrays of aircraft overhead.”

Pettis: Gentlemen, the term “special operations” encompasses a large group of professionals with a variety of backgrounds. What is special operations airpower to you, and what options will provide the joint force in the peer fight?

Slife: Well, so this is something we’re actually putting a fair amount of thought into at AFSOC, and I would, you know, if—I don’t have a dry erase board up here, otherwise, I’d put my Professor Slife hat on—but I would draw a two-circle Venn diagram, you know, in two overlapping circles. In one of those circles would be airpower supporting special operations. So if you think of all the things that could fall into a circle that you might describe as airpower supporting special operations, you could think of 1,000 things, right? It might be a C-17 carrying a rapid response force around the globe. It could be a KC-135 refueling a gunship trying to get across the ocean. It could be an A-10 providing close air support to a team on the ground. There’s a whole host of things that could fall into this category of airpower supporting special operations.

But that other circle is what I would describe as ‘special operations airpower’ and that’s different. Special operations airpower is what AFSOC is all about. And so there is a piece in the middle where these two circles overlap. And that piece in the middle is special operations airpower supporting special operations. Right? That’s the overlap. And that’s what we have been exclusively focused on for the last 20 years. And so we have a force that nobody beneath the rank of colonel or chief master sergeant has lived in an AFSOC that has done anything other than that piece in the middle: special operations airpower supporting special operations.

But I would suggest there’s more to special operations airpower than supporting somebody on the ground that has a mission they need to do. That’s critically important. And we can’t ever walk away from that. Gen. Bauernfeind talked about this Armed Overwatch platform. It is tied directly to our need to support our teammates on the ground. But there are special operations that don’t have anything to do with somebody on the ground that are entirely airpower-centric. That is the rest of that circle that exists outside that piece in the middle. And so this is something that we’re spending a lot of time focused on.

You know, I have a number of examples of things that might look like. I would take you back: Here’s an early example of what a special operations mission from the air would be. In early 1942, Jimmy Doolittle had the mission of flying 16 B-25 bombers off the deck of the USS Hornet. Right? And so you think about how this mission developed and how this was briefed. ‘OK, here’s the plan, Jimmy. We have 16 bombers that we’re going to put on an aircraft carrier. Now we are pretty sure they’ll be able to take off — not completely sure, but we’re pretty sure that they’ll be able to take off. And we’re going to drive this aircraft carrier west. And when we get as close as we can get to Japan, you are going to lead these 16 bombers off the end of the USS Hornet. And assuming that we were right, and you can actually take off, you will fly west. Now you can’t come back because we have no ability to land on the aircraft carrier. And so you’re going to fly west until you get to Tokyo. When you get to Tokyo, you’re going to drop your bombs. But now we don’t have enough gas to get you anywhere. So you just keep flying west until you get into Japanese-occupied China. When you get into Japanese-occupied China, Jimmy, your airplanes are going to run out of gas. When your airplane runs out of gas, you all are to bail out of your airplanes and land in occupied China. And then you’re to link up with the Chinese resistance movement and ENE your way across China until you get back to United States hands. Do you have any questions about this mission, Jimmy?’

Right? I mean, you think about that, that is a special operations mission. It doesn’t, you know, it doesn’t have to have an AFSOC patch on. That is a mission that you know is completely nonstandard. You know, the first missions of Desert Storm were led by AFSOC helicopters. Those AFSOC helicopters led a package of Army Apaches into Iraq to destroy the early warning radar sites that allowed the air armada to flow north. This is what I’m talking about when I say we play a supporting role to the broader joint force. That was in support of the air component commander. We didn’t buy those helicopters to go destroy early warning radar sites; we just used them for that. Right? That’s an application of special operations from the air, independent of somebody moving around on the ground needing examples, needing support.

In December, AFSOC launched a JASSM-ER, a long-range stealthy cruise missile, out of the back of a C-130, flew a long navigation route over the Gulf of Mexico, killed a barge in the Gulf of Mexico. Why in the world would AFSOC be launching cruise missiles out of the back of C-130s? Because if our adversaries have to look at every C-130 and every C-17 and wonder what’s in the back and whether that C-17 is in fact a long-range fires platform, changes their calculus —that’s deterrence. That’s deterrent. That is an application of special operations airpower. And so I guess, you know, that’s a long way of saying that we are thinking about airpower in AFSOC more broadly than purely in what we have done for the last 20 years, which is the necessary but insufficient role of in support of a mission on the ground.”

Bauernfeind: From SOCOM’s perspective, I would offer, I’m going to take the conversation up a little bit. As we look at our operations, as we look at our programming, we bend our operations into four major areas. First is crisis response—[unintelligible] crisis response—as we have the capability to respond when the president needs to a wide variety of missions, of which air commandos and many other Airmen are involved in and respond perfectly every time because it is so well exercised and so well sequenced. And that is a key part of where our SOF Airmen are involved.

The second aspect that we’ve already talked about is counter-VEO. We’re not walking away from counter-VEO. We are the coordinating authority. We know that we will be still conducting a major part of counter-VEO operations along with the joint force in support of those geographic combatant commanders who owned the mission, whether it be in AFRICOM, CENTCOM, INDOPACOM as we move forward. But the other two I want to delve into a little bit.

The third one is competition. And that is that irregular warfare—that unconventional warfare—where special operations provides very unique capabilities for the nation. And as to Gen. Slife’s great point on the JASSMs, we provide low-cost, low-escalatory options for national leaders because we have the ability with our special operations forces to hold adversary systems at risk. We get after their strategic decision-making. And through that capability, there is a wide scope of opportunity for SOF Airmen to be involved.

And then the final case, which is pure to the entire joint force, is conflict. And to that supporting role, we realize at SOCOM that we are in support of the joint force when we go to conflict as it goes forward. But we also know that for us to be prepared, we have to be on the battlefield early, we have to be preparing the environment, and we have to make sure that we are providing those options—whether it be on the ground, in the sea, in the air, in other domains, to hold those adversary systems at risk. Because we’re seeing it right now in real time in Europe, where this dance amongst nuclear powers is a very careful dance. And so from the Department of Defense, we owe our national leaders very nuanced options so they can start to have those strategic decisions. And from Gen. Clarke’s perspective, my perspective at SOCOM, SOF Airmen absolutely are a part of all of those options moving forward.

Pettis: Gen. Slife, picking up something that Gen. Bauernfeind mentioned, last year AFSOC personnel deployed to more than 60 countries. We also held a building partner aviation capacity seminar at Hurlburt. How do these frequent appointments and partnership seminars build value, and how do … these actions align with a larger effort to build our reach in informal networks that we can leverage later?

Slife: So I’m going to answer the question kind of broadly about building partner aviation capacity. So there is, you know, first of all, Gen. Bauernfeind highlighted the point that one of SOCOM’s competitive advantages—as what I would describe it—is a vast set of international relationships. And, you know, SOF is deployed around the globe, AFSOC’s certainly no different, deployed around the globe, engaged with various partners. And a portion of that is built around the idea of building partner capacity. We’re helping them develop the capabilities that they need to be most effective in their security environment—whatever, you know, whatever part of the world they’re in. But the other part of that is the access and the influence that those engagements provide. Right? If we are in 60 places around the globe, that’s 60 places where the United States has some level of access and some level of influence, has the ability to understand the environment, you know. Those are really, really valuable opportunities. And what we, in AFSOC, have been limited by over time is our limited density of aviation advisers. We haven’t had enough capacity to engage meaningfully in as many places as we want to engage around the globe. And so one of the things that we’re working through pretty diligently is how do we expand that capacity across AFSOC and provide more access vectors to all of our operating forces all around the globe? So I think the access and influence around the globe is the critical part of that, and we’re expanding our investment in that.

You know, that’s one of the value propositions of SOF, certainly, but AFSOC inside the Air Force, is the ability to operate across the spectrum of visibility and attribution. The ability to operate across a spectrum of visibility and attribution. So there are some things that we do that are very visible and highly attributable. Right? When a C-130 with 105 mm cannon sticking out of the side shows up, it’s pretty attributable. Right? There are other things that we do that are much less visible and much less attributable. And the ability to operate across that whole spectrum, to gain and leverage access and influence around the globe, is a central part of our value proposition for the future. And so those, you know, those forces inside of AFSOC that provide access and influence around the globe—at whatever level of attribution—are important investment areas for us.

Bauernfeind: If I may, I’d like to join in on that one. And I want to tie this to the SecDef ‘s No. 3 priority: Succeed through teamwork. And you know, what Secretary Austin has meant by that is, you know, teamwork amongst services, teamwork amongst the interagency but most importantly, teamwork with our allies and partners. And we have learned that at SOCOM, as I already mentioned, our great J3I teammates are great. The folks that we have forward, at many, many locations. But it comes to a kind of a bumper sticker statement that you can’t search trust. And that is what we talk about is how you have to be on the field to compete. You have to be forward. You have to be preparing the environment. It doesn’t mean you have to be for 24/7, 365, but you have to be developing those relationships globally with those allies and partners that are like-minded in the international world order. And SOCOM has been highly successful of that, mostly, not mostly—across all of our services, but especially in AFSOC.

I will tell you just right now, you know, when the Ukrainian operation there, the phones are lighting up with many of our Ukrainian teammates, who served with many of our Army teammates. Some are in PME now, and the connections are going very strongly as we maintain those relationships as we go forward. But it’s just in our history at AFSOC, I would point out that it was relationships that was maintained with nations to the north of Afghanistan that were critical to opening up that northern airbridge when we needed those mobility forces to flow from the north early in the war on Afghanistan. And there are literally dozens of examples—whether it be from small teams being forward conducting training with partner air forces, or whether it be teammates back in PME or at foreign PME, that those relationships last a lifetime. And you just never know when you’re going to need those relationships. So it’s important that we continue on those, and the efforts of AFSOC in building those is critical to SOCOM’s success.

Pettis: Gen. Bauernfeind, what areas of SOCOM need support from Congress and industry as it shifts to this focus on the near-peer fight and while obviously sustaining pressure on VEOs as well?

Bauernfeind: Well, from SOCOM’s perspective, we just want to thank Congress. I will tell you that we have been receiving amazing support from Congress across the board. And primarily, we work, just like everyone else, with the six committees—the HASC, the SASC, the HAC, the SAC, HPSCI, SISC—those members and those professional staff members have been exceptionally supportive of all of SOCOM’s efforts. So we just want to say thank you for that. Yes, they hold their oversight role tight. And they ask us the hard questions, which is their responsibility to do, and we welcome those questions. And we appreciate that going forward. But at the end of the day, we know it’s because they’re taking such good support for us.

As an example, we have benefited greatly from specialized authorities in SOCOM, whether it be our 1202 or our 127 Echo authorities—just numbers and a Title 10 U.S. Code—but really what that gives us the authority on SecDef approval is to develop partner irregular forces around the world, so it’s not just U.S. forces as we’re going forward. We also have been given through our specialized acquisition capabilities special authorities for small businesses. And I just want to pull up a quick stat there is I had in my head, that, you know, during that specialized business, excuse me, that specialized acquisition authority, we were able to quadruple the amount of money we were spending with small businesses. So we went from $5 million to $20 million. And we increased the capabilities for many of those small businesses by over 240%. Much faster deliveries because what we’re finding is in the data world, in the software world and where a lot of innovation lives are in these small businesses. And we’re seeing great results of specialized authorities like that that we’re getting from Congress. So as long as we continue getting that support, we’re, you know, no additional ask, at least for my position. I’m sure Gen. Clarke will have more when he testifies here in about six weeks.

And then for industry, I just wanted to also say thanks for everything that industry’s doing because industry’s pushing us forward. Industry’s continuing to come to the table with great ideas. They’re continuing to challenge us—whether it be our great acquisition executive, Mr. Jim Smith and his amazing PEOs—but we have a whole host of wonderful industry partners that when we’re putting requests for proposals out there, great concepts are coming forward, and we’re tying them with the warfighters, and we’re getting great capabilities as we move forward. So that’s all we’d ask is that for industry to keep pushing on that.”

Pettis: Gen. Slife, do you have a thought on this as well?

Slife: Not specifically on the what Congress can do. I mean, we obviously, we rely on Congress for, you know, support of all these programs we’re talking about. I look forward to continuing that conversation. But as Gen. Bauernfeind said, you know, while, you know, Congress asks us more questions than we would like sometimes, they’re never the wrong questions. And so I, you know, I wouldn’t ask for anything other than what they’re doing, which is exercising their oversight role and, where warranted, supporting our programs.

On the industry side, you know, I would say AFSOC benefits from living at the intersection of the U.S. Air Force as a MAJCOM and U.S. SOCOM as a service component. We are able to leverage our, you know, kind of vast service acquisition architecture while also leveraging the rapid pace at which SOCOM acquisition can turn. And we can blend those things together. And most of the programs that we execute inside of AFSOC are a combination of SOCOM and Air Force acquisition authorities coming forward to help us go pretty quickly. You know, the cruise missile out of the back of the C-130, that example, that happened because of the partnership of AFRL and the SOCOM acquisition team that were able to make that happen in a remarkably short period of time. So that’s, I think, that’s where I would stand on that.

Pettis: Gentlemen, on behalf of AFA and our standing-room-only audience participants, I want to thank you so much for the time you’ve given us and the insights. Thank you very much.

Slife: Thank you all.

Watch, Read: Key Technologies the Space Force Needs Now

Watch, Read: Key Technologies the Space Force Needs Now

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, hosts Lisa Costa, Space Force chief technology and innovation officer; Nicholas Bucci, vice president, Defense Systems and Technologies, General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems; and Frank DeMauro, vice president and general manager, Strategic Deterrent Systems, Northrop Grumman Space Systems, for a discussion on “Space Innovations: Key Technologies” during the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 4, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula: Good morning ladies and gentlemen, I’m Dave Deptula, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace studies, and welcome to this session of the 2022 AFA Aerospace Warfare Symposium. Today we’ve got a fantastic panel to discuss an area of immense growth. That being the key technologies that are driving space innovation. I don’t think I have to tell this crowd too often that space is a warfighting domain. 

Obviously Russia and China have made that very clear. And well, the United States has worked for decades to keep space peaceful. Given adversary actions, we’ve got to respond. But the capabilities that exist on orbit are simply too important to risk. 

We need to present senior leaders with a range of effective options and that means pursuing both defensive and offensive capabilities, just like we have in every other domain. Achieving this is going to demand aggressive innovation. Much of our capabilities on orbit today speak to an earlier time and space when the domain was not contested. The technologies operational concepts and strategies will need to operate successfully need to be manifested in the operational realm and that needs to happen as soon as possible. 

That’s why I’m especially pleased to have some key figures with us today. Are going to help us generate these new capabilities. So with that bit of background, I’d like to welcome Dr. Lisa Costa, Chief Technology and Innovation Officer the U.S. Space Force, Frank DeMauro, Vice President of Strategic Deterrence Systems in the space system sector at Northrop Grumman, and Nick Bucci, Vice President of Program Management with General Atomics. So I’d like to do is start off with Dr. Costa, and asked her if she could give us a quick rundown on what key technologies your office is pursuing, to equip our space force given the challenges in space and then after that, we’ll be followed by Nick and Frank.

Lisa Costa: Thank you very much. And I’d like to thank AFA in particular for putting this this symposium together. It’s been fantastic and I know it takes a lot of work. The CTIO office is unique across the services. There is no other service that has a chief technology officer and why that is, is most services have CIOs. We have a CIO and the Department of the Air Force. 

But what we wanted within Space Force was someone whose full time job it was to focus on asymmetric threats and opportunities. So we have critical areas that were focused on more than specific single technologies because there are a lot of technologies that go into space, right? We could, we could actually talk about whole sectors right? Energy, IT [information technology], space, et cetera. So what I would say is we’re really more focused on six primary activities: 

The first is improving the freedom of action and space and you can think about AI and ML, advanced analytics, providing space awareness to everyone—not just within space force, but across the services, our international partners and industry as well. 

The second is improving survivability and resilient architectures. 

The third is digital engineering, not just in the acquisition arena, but all the way through the thread of acquisition, to training to force design, to operations in other words, train the way we fight and fight the way we train. 

Responsible AI/ML and autonomy—Wow. That’s just huge in and of itself. A great deal of energy going into how we trust algorithms, and to what degree the human is in on an off the loop. 

The fifth area is improving space access, mobility and logistics. And this is really a critical area in that if something goes wrong in space, we were not there physically right to fix it. So we’re really looking at things like you know, in situ resource, seeing materiel located within space to be able to use additive manufacturing in orbit. 

So there are a lot of activities going on in the research of how you will even generate additional space assets in space. Not even starting off on the ground and needing lift. 

And then the fifth, or the sixth area, I’m sorry, is enhancement and integration of the current services that we already provide and that encompasses you know, anything from search and rescue, space commerce, defense, ISR, etc. So many technologies, and I would highlight that we do have a long-term S and T plan to get after that, and that was published in September of last year, and I would recommend folks go out and get a copy of that online.

Deptula: Thank you. Nick?

Nicholas Bucci: Thanks, General. Everyone can hear me I hope. So I want to kind of center my comments. So because this is about innovation, about what is driving that innovation and from a perspective of where I’m sitting in standing at General Atomics, it’s all about size, weight and power improvements in terms of capabilities. And so when you think about, you know, oh, if I can reduce the size of a focal plane array, then be able to see a certain type of object at a certain range. I now have shrunk down the optics, I’ve shrunk down the size of the spacecraft on which that sensor needs to sit and now all of a sudden it opens a tremendous amount of space – excuse the pun there – for being able to do things differently. 

And that’s kind of really the driver is being able to, I like to say, do bigger missions with smaller spacecraft. And what that means is I may be able to do things with a half a kilogram satellite in a certain regime, all the way up to being able to take on some of the toughest missions with, say, only a 500 kilogram satellite instead of a 5,000 kilogram satellite. And so that’s really the thought processes: Take advantage of the evolution of technology and the innovation and figure out how to make it come into this mission, especially as we move into this standing up of the Space Force – and the … admission of space being a warfighting domain. 

The second point is access to space. Access to the space has become much more reasonably priced as a result. Now I can do some of that innovation, and I can get it on orbit faster and cheaper. And then, kind of adjunct to both of those is the fact that I can get inside the technology development loop of those innovations. Think of a fire control loop. I know Dr. Schmidt said the OODA [observe, orient, decide, act] loop was confusing and people hate the word, but think of it as a decision loop. If I can get inside the acquisition timelines fast enough to take advantage of the evolution of innovation. Now I can deliver that new capability again, shrinking down the size of sensors shrinking down the size of communication packages, etc., and deliver that capability much faster rather than having to wait 15 years. I can wait three years, five years and get it on orbit much faster. 

And then I guess the last point is in terms of getting people who want to do innovation, to be part of this community. I think for space, it’s a lot easier. There is a lot of movement of personnel amongst different companies and things like that, and it’s because it’s a really cool mission. 

Again, stealing from Dr. Schmidt’s comments last night: We’re lucky in the space community that people want to do this work. You know, when I was a kid, my brother’s a little bit older than me. He was, uh, he wanted to be an astronaut. Well, he’s a plumber, so that didn’t come true for him. But, you know, everybody had that dream of doing something like the Apollo missions we’re driving toward. And so I think that’s a big deal for us. But getting people interested you know, getting you know, soldiers, sailors and airmen and women as they come out of the service interested in doing this mission is important. And then the important piece is retaining them by keeping them interested in the mission areas, and frankly, developing new mission areas. I think it was [Lt.] General [Michael A.] Guetlein about a year ago said one of the things that he thinks we should be doing is looking at how can I take advantage of other missions that we have done that have been I’ll say, adjunct space missions like missile defense, how do I take some of those technologies in and take advantage of them, whether it’s actual pieces of hardware, whether it’s approaches to software, where it’s just how I do my command and control processes? So I think those are kind of the coalescing principles around how we need to take advantage of innovation for space.

Deptula: Good, I would suggest to the Space Force quickest way to adapt Missile Defense Agency innovation and ideas by putting the Missile Defense Agency inside the Space Force, but that’s another subject. Frank, over to you. Thank you, gentlemen. 

Frank DeMauro: Good morning, everybody. Great to be here. Great to be on this panel. I guess I’ll focus on a couple of different technologies that are in various stages that we’ve done. The first one I’ll talk about is our investment space logistics and space mobility technologies. Northrop Grumman invested several years ago began investing in what we call the mystic mission extension vehicle, a pure commercial investment developing a technology to rendezvous and dock with existing commercial GEO satellites that are performing a perfectly fine mission just happened to be running out of fuel, where we would piggyback on the back of that spacecraft and take over its attitude-control systems and propulsion systems and extend the life of that revenue generating spacecraft. And we delivered two of those space craft. 

They successfully docked with two different commercial spacecraft. In fact, the last one we did last year [unintelligible] to dock with an Intelsat satellite, which was actually in the geo arc, transferring traffic for its customers and there was no interruption of traffic—and it was the first time that was done. And really, it was a commercial venture that we knew would have other applications beyond the commercial arena. 

And now since then, we are investing in the next generation or to have that capability to where we can put robotics in space where we can do repairs of spacecraft in space. 

We can do assembly of spacecraft in space, like Dr. Costa was talking about. We can go up in space and interchange payloads as technologies improve or requirements change. 

And so that investment’s, I think, a really strong example where we saw a need for a technology, we invested in it, and then we fielded it, and so far it’s quite successful. So we’re looking forward to being eventually fielding the next version of that technology in the 2024 timeframe. 

Another version, which is a technology—we invested in radar technologies, so that the government could look out use ground-based radars to look out to the geostationary arc and see what else is out there and do surveillance of the arc, and combining use that capability to combine with space based assets to give a fuller picture of what’s out there. 

And that investment that technology will eventually be fielded on something called dark deep-space advanced radar capability. 

And so that’s some of some of the work we did in our Baltimore facility. Really strong investment, a lot of great technology and now soon, a few years from now, we’ll be fielding that technology. 

And then the last piece I’ll talk about is, is something it’s consistent with another item that Dr. Costa talked about, which is the digital transformation in digital engineering. You know, there’s on the one of the programs that my portfolio GPSd—huge program. We’ve made tremendous strides in digital engineering model based system engineering, but we’re really trying to push it further from the corporation on down throughout the organization, [so that it’s] more of a digital ecosystem, so that we are not just doing digital engineering, but digital manufacturing—physics based simulation, modeling and simulation—and applying that across the spectrum of what we do from the acquisition phase to the fielding phase to the learning and training phase of programs. 

So we’re excited about those snippets of technology that we’ve been interested in. 

Deptula: Well, thanks very much, Frank, and all of you now let’s kind of dig down into some of these details. With some specific questions. Dr. Costa, budgets are obviously tight, especially given the demand for new capabilities and additive capacity that’s on Space Force’s plate. Could you speak a bit to how you’re setting up your tech development and investment priorities? What determines whether something falls above or below the cut line? I should say the funding line. 

Costa: Well, it’s all about prioritization, as you know, and it’s also about partnership. And this is really where industry is absolutely critical. Space Force will not be the organization that puts for example, IT infrastructure into space. That’s really going to be the job of industry because they see the value of being able to provide cloud based services globally. We want to take advantage of that. 

And so that is an area that we don’t necessarily then have to invest significant funding, but we do have to invest significant kind of blood, sweat and tears to make sure that the partnerships are there, and that we have a voice in terms of how we want information to move in and across space.

So the here’s a great example of that. As we rely more on artificial intelligence, machine learning, autonomy, a lot of assets and space don’t have that computational power To actually perform the analysis. We don’t want to have to move a lot of data to ground stations. Instead, we’d love instead to be able to process information on orbit, and then move that around space without ever touching ground. And so I think that’s really a key area that, you know, again, partnering with industry is critical. 

I love the topic of the digital ecosystem, absolutely ensuring that it gets driven down to every single Guardian. And we are focused very much on that. A lot of our funding is focused on digital university, digital headquarters and digital operations, and making sure that we are providing an environment for Guardians to be able to interact with their environment. 

I have this scenario where I … identify that if you are a Sailor, you have kind of the feel of the waves beneath you; have the feel of the sun on your face. If you’re … a Soldier, you feel the mud … as you’re crawling through … a field. But a Guardian only experiences their environment, their operational domain, through digital data. So, I would encourage industry to think about how we provide an environment where those Guardians can interact with their environment and an augmented reality perspective so that they can use their five senses with their operational domain.

Deptula: Oh, that’s great. I just reiterate some of the comments that were made by leadership yesterday in terms of the importance, although as simple as it seems, IT infrastructure needs a whole lot of attention. In all of our services. And you very clearly pointed out why it’s particularly important to folks in the Space Force. There is a bit of a follow up. Other than IT and networks and getting our act together in that regard, are there other areas that you would like to … how would you …what is another priority that you would like to see attention paid to by the Space Force?

Costa: So I would say that in that entire ecosystem of ensuring that we have resources in space that are able to be quickly used, right, it is not always an option to have liftoff and do that in a timeframe. That makes sense. And so being able to focus on additive manufacturing in space, being able to have material depots in space, in situ power, development in space, is really critical. And again, this is something that will not be unique to Space Force with the growth of … commercial space assets. Everyone will need this, right? Everyone will need the ability to … have on demand services in space. And so I think that is a key area that I’d love to see focus on without requiring … the cost of lift and then the … challenge of lift, if there’s weather and all kinds of other things that that might perturb you from getting capability on orbit as quickly as possible.

Deptula: To your previous point in terms of the capacity and capability to conduct onboard processing. Also, it’s applicable many, many other things. Our whole ISR infrastructure is based on, you know, an archaic model where you download everything and then you figure out what it is you need after you download it. Well, that’s kind of ridiculous, given the amount of, of data that one collects and 99 percent of it is garbage anyway. So figure that out before you translate and move what you want to do. Now, thanks very much for that. 

Nick and Frank, as we listen to Dr. Costa, it’s clear that the demand for space capability surging, that it’s going to demand more industrial capacity. So how do you look at this from your respective vantage points? And just some of these variables represent greater challenges than others? 

Bucci: Of course, there’s a lot of differences. … Some [unintelligible] things are much more challenging than others. But when it comes to it, you have to look at it from I’ll say, from an industry perspective, at least three different dimensions: financial, technology, and people. 

Do I have the right resources in those three dimensions to be able to support what I need, whether it’s … new capital equipment, whether it’s new training for people, or whether it’s a new piece of technology to be able to accomplish a new goal? Things like, can we bring new sources of energy to do on orbit? 

You know, what you were just talking about Dr. Costa … whether it’s on-orbit refueling, whether it’s providing a new source of power and energy on orbit, and essentially getting rid of things like solar power, solar panels on orbit. New ways to do battery work, all of those things. So each of those I think will help us make the decisions as to what are the right things to go off and pursue. And frankly, constant communications between the Space Force and industry is the only way to get that right. What are the right priorities, and where is the right thing for us to invest and essentially ensure that we’re meeting that demand that the Space Force wants.

DeMauro: I think from an … industry-capacity point of view, I … agree with what Nick said. But I think just to add to that, there’s obviously the physical capacity of getting hardware through factories, whether it’s Northrop Grumman or one of our partners on our programs. There’s a lot of stuff moving through factories these days [that] need to be sized to be able to handle all that. But at the same time you want to right-size them for lots of reasons. 

One, you want to optimize your investments, but two, you want to have the right size footprint not only physically but also from a carbon standpoint, as we think about sustainability. I think the people piece is huge. I think right now the competition for talent out there is increasing, as all of us in the industry are very busy. And so making sure we’re getting the right people in the positions in the company to be able to do all the great work that needs to get done to support these great programs, these great initiatives, and then to feel the investment that we’re doing. 

And I think the other another piece of this is, as we’re thinking about these factories and what we’re going to be delivering from a hardware and software point of view, I think we also need to think about how do we design them? What’s the smartest way we could do in these smart factories and factories of the future? We’ve all heard those terms. I think those are real things because I think is where figuring out the flexibility we need to have in our systems, we also need to have the flexibility in our facilities and in our systems to be able to pivot quickly, to be able to be agile in what we’re delivering to the customers. Because at the end of the day, as we field things more and more quickly, we’re going to have to figure out how to make sure that it’s meeting the needs of the warfighter. And as those requirements change, and they’re changing very quickly these days, our systems have to be able to support them.

Bucci: As Frank was talking, I was thinking another important dimension is teaming amongst industry – essentially to what you’re saying Frank in terms of maximizing the efficiency of footprints and sustainability, etc. I don’t know that there are many programs where a single company top to bottom can essentially bid and produce everything in an efficient manner. And so I think teaming amongst industry, and frankly teaming with the government, as we go through acquisitions and development and fielding and operations, is really important, too.

Deptula: Sounds very good, which is a great segue into this next question that I’ve got for Dr. Costa. For too long, we’ve heard about this critical barrier, if you will, which stands in the way between fielding new innovative operational capability. And that’s the “Valley of Death.” As most of you all know, this involves innovating new technology, but then failing to find a sponsor who can bring it on board. So how’s the Space Force addressing this challenge?

Costa: That is a great question. And, you know, I think that the Space Force is small for a reason, right? The Space Force is focused on being able to iterate very quickly. And while there are some challenges with that, the value of being small is that we can shepherd particular initiatives and activities and ensure that they are not even encountering that “Valley of Death.”

So, you know, a great initiative that we’re looking at is how to create this metaverse for the Space Force. How do we create this immersive environment that includes digital engineering, modeling and simulation, AI, And then all of the kind of the haptic sensory feedback to the to the Guardian, so that they can make better decisions. 

We are working with industry and academia to help make that happen. And those investments, in turn, are really fueling industries. You know, approach and desire to enter the metaverse, right? So I think where we can find opportunities that meet both industry’s needs and Space Force’s needs, that’s critical. 

I do want to highlight the something that Frank said and it really is all about the people. The greatest pleasure that I have is, you know, the other day I visited University of Central Florida and I had the opportunity to sit down for an hour and a half with our ROTC cadets and let me tell you, you know, absolutely, these are individuals who are dedicated to the mission. Incredibly brilliant. I have nothing but high hopes for the future when I talk to them. But the key will be to put into their hands the tools that they need to bring us in to the next century of space and not give them 30-year-old technology. And that’s absolutely critical because you know, they go out to their cars and have better technology than that we’re providing them on their desktop. 

So I think that’s the challenge and I also like to highlight what Nick said, which is I see much more teaming between government and industry. I see that relationship becoming much stronger and us working on common areas of interest. You know, perhaps in different ways than we have in the past where we just want a contract and, you know, and maybe it’s more though, than a CRADA [cooperative research and development agreement], right? So there’s this there’s the spectrum of CRADA, and then there’s this … contracting. But there’s a lot between there and I think there’s opportunity space for Space Force and industry to explore that together.

Deptula: That’s a great segue to [go] back to Frank and Nick. You know, this phenomenon is not just restricted to the government. Industry has challenges in the context of how you’re going to spend your IRAD [independent research and development] monies. And then you’ve got the same complications with continuing resolutions. And Dr. Costa already kind of led into the answer this question, but I mean, I’ll give you an opportunity to in the context of being able to work together better in the future than perhaps we have in the past. Your thoughts on these issues. 

DeMauro: I’ll start. Yeah, on that last point, I agree with Nick and Dr. Costa. If you look at our biggest program in my portfolio, GPSd, enormous enterprise that we’ve undertaken here. This is a national team. Northrop Grumman may be the lead but Lockheed Martin is on the team and Boeing’s on the team and General Dynamics and Aerojet Rocketdyne and I’m not going to name all of them. 

But if you look at the map that we’ve we created to show are the people who come and visit us and see what we’re doing on GPSd, the map is covered with participation from Northrop Grumman across the country, but all of our partners across the country. And so that amount of teaming to bring … capabilities to bear on such a critical program, the ability to do that extremely well, I think is critical to the success of the program. 

And I think to add to something Dr. Costa also said, the interaction between my team and the government team on the development of that program—they are intertwined really strongly to where as we as we move the development of that system into the cloud environment that the folks at Hill Air Force Base [Utah] right outside my office door, will have access to the same data and the same models and the same analysis that my team does, without having to transfer it via email. 

Those types of things, I think, are going to be integral into pushing us faster, while not losing any other any other capabilities that we need to provide the system. I think in terms of the investment conversation, it is critical we look at the priorities that we think our customers have, but clarity from our customers is really helpful in figuring out where we want to put those investment dollars. 

Sometimes we’re going to invest because we know there’s a direction that the customer wants to go and sometimes we’re going to put money and invest in things that we think will differentiate ourselves in the marketplace and sometimes they’re very much combined. 

And so as we decide where to place those bets, as we call it, it’s a very iterative process, not only in talking to the customers and figuring out what direction we want to go, but also looking at okay, we invested X dollars and last quarter. How is that looking? Let’s continuously reevaluate it, efficiently though, because you don’t want to keep throwing money and then having to pull back. You have to make the right decisions. But you have to give yourself the ability to change course, at a very quick pace to make sure you’re keeping up with what the customers are looking for.

Bucci: I guess I’ll just repeat the three C’s, but a little bit differently. We heard it twice yesterday. But the three C’s that I’ll use are communications, communications, communications. And that happens I’ll add one more thing between CRADA and contract, Dr. Costa, and that’s the OTA [other transaction authority] process. Now that Space Force has been pursuing some of those, that is huge. Because what that enables us to do is have communications through the parts of the development process continuously, so that we’re going down the right path. 

So many times the “Valley of Death” is encountered because someone feels threatened by an innovation, right? It’s threatening someone’s franchise, you know, in an industry or in government. And so they will battle to essentially say how that innovation can’t possibly make it through the “Valley of Death.” 

To ensure that they, they can continue to do things like pre-planned product improvements and things like that to their programs. So I think that’s really the big thing. And I really liked the thing you talked about because Space Forces small—small now, it’s going to get bigger—but I would say it will still be a classic tweener kind of organization, right? Not too big, not too small. 

And there was a Harvard Business Review a long time ago that talked about as a tweener, the small folks look up to you and say you’re big you got all the processes and all of those kinds of things. And the big guys look down at you and say, “You’re nimble, you’re fast, you’re innovative.”

The point of the study was, it requires focus—laser focus—again, excuse this pun, on exactly what those investments need to be and when you talked about how you want to keep the space for small and essentially do a very good job of focusing on exactly where to go to avoid the “Valley of Death.” That’s a perfect spot.

Deptula: Very good. Dr. Costa, we’re getting ready to see the acquisition, if you will, inside the Space Force of one of its first major external organizations, and that’s the Space Development Agency. How do you view your role changing as SDA comes on board our Space Force?

Costa: I don’t view the role [unintelligible] as changing, but I do view it as an additional partner that we especially can ensure that we’re taking advantage of the capabilities that they have built up. Right? And we’re already working with them. I mean, that’s it. This is not something where we’re waiting and you know, and then we’ll start working with SDA. So we’re working very hard to take advantage of what they’ve already been doing. I want to just identify that we don’t view – I started this conversation off with we don’t view any single technology right as being kind of the key to space. And it’s really the convergence of technology and the novel convergence of technology that will have the most tremendous impact on space and it’s really not even government that will have the greatest impact. It is industry and how it changes the socio-cultural fabric of our citizens that will have the greatest impact on space. So, as we talk about science and technology, and I said this to our team who focuses on futures, always think about the impact of the socio-cultural fabric of what industry is developing for citizenry because that will have direct impact on what we do. And it will have direct impact on how we work with SSC, SDA, and others as well.

Deptula: Well, very good. Either you care to comment on the SDA issue? You don’t have to. I mean, I just offer. 

I the only thing I’ll say is that I think it’s

DeMauro: I think it’s a positive progression of driving, Where it’s I think it’ll be a more nimble application and communication of what’s really required by the Space Force, that will enable the industry to respond in a more effective way. I think we’re seeing that already in some of the [unintelligible] work we’re doing. So I think that as that takes more and more hold, but really, not to be dramatic, but unleashes what industry can bring. I think that’s going to be the real benefit of SDA to the Space Force.

Bucci: And all I’d add is [unintelligible] is taking almost the same approach – stay small, stay nimble, stay innovative, and that will fit in well.

Deptula: Very good, unfortunately, ladies and gentlemen, we’ve come to the end of our session today. Dr. Costa, Nick, Frank, thank you very much for taking the time to share with us your perspectives. I think the audience and certainly I found them very illuminating. 

So with that, ladies and gentlemen, thanks. Please join me in thanking our guests and have a great aerospace power today.

Watch, Read: Top Guard & Reserve Leaders on Meeting the Needs of the Nation and What’s Ahead

Watch, Read: Top Guard & Reserve Leaders on Meeting the Needs of the Nation and What’s Ahead

Heather Penney, senior resident fellow at the Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies hosts Maj. Gen. John P. Healy, deputy to the chief of the Air Force Reserve; Lt. Gen. Michael Loh, director of the Air National Guard; and Maj. Gen. Daryl Bohac, adjutant general of the Nebraska National Guard, for a discussion on “Guard & Reserve: Ready and Willing” at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 4, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Heather Penney: Good morning. I’m Heather Penney, senior resident fellow at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Welcome to the session of Guard and Reserve: Ready and Willing. I myself served as a proud Guardsman and Reservist. As a matter of fact, Lt. Gen. Loh was my commander during my first combat deployment to Iraq in 2003. And we have logged missions and hours together. We were then, and the Guard and Reserve remain, ready and willing.

Our nation and our Air Force rely on these citizen Airmen. At the end of the Cold War, the nation cut the Air Force in half, but it didn’t slow operations down, so the Guard and Reserves stepped in to fill that gap. Since then, they have transformed into an operational reserve, not a strategic reserve, and they have captured so much of the experienced talent from the active duty. They’ve modernized their fleet with advanced capabilities and ensure that their Airmen are trained and ready. For the last 30 years, the Guard and Reserve have shown just how much the nation depends on its forces. These Airmen stand ready to fill a wide spectrum of roles, from defense support to civil authorities, like COVID response disaster relief and protecting the U.S. Capitol, to operational deployments around the globe. Building partnerships in the INDOPACOM theater or the standing and sacred mission of homeland defense, the Guard and Reserve are there.

Today we’ll have a chance to discuss how the Guard and Reserve are working to meet the needs of our nation in an ever more complex and dangerous global environment, how they partner with the active-duty Air Force, as well as discuss some of the challenges that they face. Please welcome our panelists, Lt. Gen. Michael Loh, director of the Air National Guard; Maj. Gen. John Healy, deputy to the chief of the Air Force Reserve; and Maj. Gen. Daryl Bohac, the adjutant general of the Nebraska National Guard and president of the Adjutants General Association of the United States. Today, we’ll ask them to provide some opening remarks, and then we’ll have a conversation, and at the end, open up to questions. Gen. Loh, let’s start with you.

Lt. Gen. Michael Loh: Hey, Heather. Thanks very much. And yes, it is true, we have logged combat time together. Hey, thanks for putting on this wonderful event. AFA, absolutely wonderful, in a great location, and I really appreciate all the stuff that AFA does on behalf of the Air Force and the Air National Guard. And it is truly a great day to be in the Air National Guard.

The title of this event: Air National Guard and Reserves: Ready and Willing—I love that. I love to talk about our readiness, and I love to talk about our willingness. And so when you look at where we’ve been: Over three decades of continuous mobilizations, but then especially the last two years, the longest mobilizations and the largest in our history since World War II. It’s pretty impressive. On average, over 14,000 Guard Airmen were on duty over these last two years, supporting combatant commanders overseas, defending the homeland and providing support to a broad range of missions, including COVID-19, natural disasters and civil unrest operations. Your National Guard is on mission every day. But this also means that almost 90% of the force is in that reserve capacity. And they’re trained, ready and willing whenever the nation calls.

Just some highlights from this year: 2021 started out lightning fast as your Guard air crews flew nearly 800 sorties, transporting 14,000 Guard Airmen and soldiers and their support equipment for the protection of the Capitol and the inauguration. Throughout 2021, the National Guard mobilized over 12,000 Airmen in support of FEMA, our lead federal agency as we continue to bring the fight to the COVID-19 pandemic. National Guard Airmen and soldiers have put over 14 million shots in the arms of civilians and over 2 million shots in the arms of military members. That’s pretty impressive. The fire season, something that both the Guard and Reserve combined react to, 2021 was the largest fire season in over a half-century. And during that fire season, we activated all eight MAFFS aircraft, six Air National Guard, 2 AFRC. We put 2.5 million gallons, fly 945 sorties on 26 complex fires. Also our mobilization planners processed over 120 mobilization packages last year, providing nearly 9,000 Guard Airman to various combatant commanders around the world. And we were in 85 countries.

Last fall as we withdrew out of Afghanistan, Air National Guard Airmen were among the first U.S. troops into Afghanistan way back in 2001. And, Heather, it was your old unit, the 113th Fighter Wing from the D.C. National Guard, they were the last fighters out of Bagram. Obviously, during that same timeframe, 260 Guard air crew members in the C-17 enterprise from nine different wings and nine different states flew 275 sorties, transporting more than 11,000 passengers and nearly 800 short tons of cargo out of Afghanistan. And this was a true total force effort. We had active-duty Air Force and Reserve air crews, flying Guard aircraft and vice versa. It was a seamless operation. You talk about the mobility side of this operation. We are a total force in that, and it is wonderful. Then, we went to Operation Allies Welcome, and over 1,000 Guard Airmen along with the addition of our reserves and our Active-duty counterparts, setup Operation Allies Welcome. And we just got our last passengers out of Holloman here recently.

Despite working another year of pandemics, and another year of historic levels of mobilizations, your Guard Airmen continued to demonstrate their willingness to serve, and it truly is our Airmen that make this happen. Our retention rates have been over 90% the last three years, and we’ve exceeded our end strength. That’s willingness. And we continue to provide our recruiters and their commanders with the best tools and training to reach today’s young people who want to serve their country. Airmen are exactly ready and willing.

And, Heather, you brought up what keeps me up at night. What are the challenges that we face? So let me address a few of those. How ready and willing are 60-year-old aircraft. So modernization, recapitalization keep me up at night. We’ve been in this two-decadeslong war in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Our focus now shifts to responding to adversaries that are pacing threats. We heard Secretary Kendall talk yesterday and last year at this AFA of his top three priorities: China, China, China. So it’s how we’re going to modernize the force to get after China. And then of course this year, Russia is here also. So we are ready and willing.

Some of the steps we’re taking is the F-35s are fully operational capable in Burlington, Vermont, the first Air National Guard wing to do that. We have conversions going on at Madison, Wisconsin, in Montgomery, Alabama, and Jacksonville, Florida, over the next couple of years. We’re bringing the F-15EX online, both in the FTU, the formal training unit at Klamath Falls and the first operational unit in Portland, Oregon, and then we’re going to stand up more after that. And then, of course, C-130J aircraft arrived this year, brand new ones, into Fort Worth, Texas; Charleston, West Virginia; and Louisville, Kentucky. And then we’re also excited about the 179th in Mansfield, Ohio, converting to a cyber warfare wing. All of this is going on.

However, we do have gaps in readiness. And here’s where I need your help and advocacy. And I’ll just put it to you that way. Um, our weapon system sustainment accounts continually come under pressure. Last year in ’21, we were funded at 87%. In ’22 right now, it’s down to 79%, but we’re still sitting on a CR. So I’m interested to see what happens in Congress as the budget goes through this year. A recent study by the Heritage Foundation talked about how much fighter pilots need to train, and they need 200 hours a year. We did not make that last year. Our fighter pilots across the Air Force, across the total force, are at their lowest levels. And in ’21, we flew all our flying hours; 100% of our flying hours, and we still stopped flying in September, early before the end of the year. That causes readiness gaps. This year, we took another 3.5% reduction in flying hours. Again, I’m waiting on to see what Congress does as we go there. And of course, we have the conversions going on, which take resources. And we also have another 18 states in preconversion status as we go through this. All of those, that bow wave is hitting right now. And all of those are challenges that require resources. And we’re going to get after those gaps.

Modernization, recapitalization, weapon system sustainment and flying hours, all of them require appropriate resourcing. That being said, hey, it’s great to give the Guard the leading edge in innovative missions, OK, and keeping them there. It makes all the sense in the world. When you consider the value that the reserve components, both our National Guard and our Reserve, have and what we bring to the fight. For the Guard, it’s 108,000 Guard Airmen; we provide 30% of the total Air Force’s combat power. With 20% of the aircraft, we conduct 94% of the homeland defense day-to-day mission. And your Air National Guard is across all Air Force mission sets. And we do it all with only 7% of the budget. Hey, we are the foundation for national defense. And so we need your help and advocacy to continue to make us a strong partner in this total force. Thank you, Heather.

Maj. Gen. John Healy: Thanks. Thanks, also. Thanks, Heather. Thanks to the AFA for allowing us to do this total force discussion. Pleasure being on stage with you, sir, pleasure meeting you as well.

Ready, as you said, ready and willing is an easy conversation to have and something that we continue to talk about within the reserves as it pertains to how we tie into the active-duty force. You know, our mission in the reserves is to be combat ready to fly, fight and win. And we prove our readiness and our willingness on a day-to-day basis. Just in the recent, as we go back in time a little bit, just about the time we commenced for the last AFA, Operation Allies Welcome or Refuge had just started. Twenty-four hours after the balloon went up, we had 13 crews volunteer, ready to go. Seventy-two hours, which is what the benchmark is for making sure that we get out the door, we had 80 crews and 36 tails out the door in 72 hours, which is, I mean, quite honestly even Air Mobility Command as we did the hogwash on the mobilization said we could not do without the total force. At the end of the month of August, we ended up executing 37 missions, where we brought Afghans in need out of the country and started to forward-deploying them. Follow on with, Afghan Welcome, 500-plus, not as strong but in partnership with the Guard at Holloman, which just shut down in January, and McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, we had 500-plus folks setting up that tent city ensuring that all those Afghans in need had the proper supplies, had the proper infrastructure there to settle and be welcome in the country. We do that through volunteerism. We do that through voluntary mobilizations as well.

We’ve got folks still supporting COVID, 40-plus MRT folks split between hospitals in California and New York, some on their second deployment right now, ensuring respiratory therapists and vital career fields are out there at the point of need. We’re a ready and willing force. And we do that because we have excellent volunteerism and because we were constantly looking at our capacity, our access and our value, and we’re trying to tell that story.

As Gen. Loh said, the capacity, what we make up, this is a capacity and value story that you heard Gen. Scobee mention before, and you’ll hear me as well, almost 25% of the Air Force for 3% of the budget. So it’s a value proposition to be utilizing the reserves and just about every mission that’s out there for active-duty. Capacity, Air Mobility Command talking about Allied Refuge and Welcome, almost 25% of the RGM force is made up of Air Force Reserve; 62% of the air evac forces are reservists; 46% of the aerial porters … are in the reserves. And in emerging mission sets, the Space Force, we’ve got 1,500 folks working in space missions at 11 units around the world, and it makes up almost 25% of the Space Force mission right now too. And we’re able to do it because of the value that we provide.

But the capacity is there as well. I’m sorry, the access is there as well, constantly reminding pundants at times that we are an accessible force. You just need to understand the levers to pull, and you’ll get 24-, 72-hour response times. Most specifically within the last two weeks with the Russian incursion into Ukraine, the Russian invasion. I mean, we had 419th Fighter Wing’s F-35s out of Hill Air Force Base flying side by side with their TF brethren over to Eastern Europe; the 315th out of Charleston taking the the bulk of the 82nd Airborne over to make sure that we have that credible deterrent force for our NATO partners; 934th out of Minneapolis, beautiful tail flash on CNN on Thursday morning after the invasion started. I think they’re a two-ship follow with a Savannah 130 unit making sure that we’ve got maintenance and infrastructure there for intra-theater airlift, supporting EUCOM and our NATO partners as well.

The value, as I said, 3% of the cost for the life-cycle cost, so from the first time we get a reservist all the way through when they retire, 28 cents on the dollar for what it costs to put that same life-cycle on an Active-duty service member, so the value’s there. We’re looking long when we look at our value proposition. We got to find a way to break the code in active duty to make sure that short-term value is seen as well when we’re talking about force structure and so forth.

It doesn’t necessarily keep me up at night, but what is constantly on my mind is maintaining the relevance of our fleet. As I believe, as the secretary said yesterday, they have an aging fleet of 30 years old. Ours is a touch more mature: 33 years is our average age; 44% of our aircraft are over what their lifetime expectancy was. So we need to ensure that we’re maintaining relevance, so we’re relevant to the COCOMs in all the fights. So that we’re relevant in the near-peer and the potential-peer competition. You know, we’re doing that through NGREA. We’ve had some hiccups in the last couple of years with NGREA being pulled and put back. CRs certainly damage our ability to get that NGREA and get after making sure that we have the proper updates to our legacy systems. But in addition to that, we’re making sure that we recap where we need to.

So KC-46s out of Seymour Johnson, started in 2019, replacing some of the aging 135s. They’re a little bit old. We’ve got nine out of the 12 delivered right now. Mod 5 was just announced about a month ago, so March Air Reserve Base is going to be getting the next tranche of 12 KC-46 is in lieu of their 135s. MH-139s as we see our oldest C-130H2s go out the door at Maxwell are coming in to take over the Global Strike transportation role as well as D.C. So we’re looking at standing up a schoolhouse, the MH-139 as well. And then we’re extremely excited about, in 2024 when we get the first delivery of F-35s down at Carswell, excited to have a unit equipped, F-35 unit, within the reserves. Currently pouring money into a $15 million on the apron to ensure that we have the proper infrastructure to support when those aircraft do arrive.

Our focus has always been on maintaining a ready force. And that ties in perfectly with a willing force as well. It’s all about making sure that we’re at the leading edge, that we can fight side by side with our active-duty and our Guard brethren in any kind of strategic competition that might be on the road ahead, while maintaining mission modernization and realistic training to meet our COCOM needs. And we’re looking forward to the future as well.

Maj. Gen. Daryl Bohac: Yeah, good morning, everybody. It’s really good to be here with Gen. Loh and Gen. Healey. And, Heather, thanks to you and the AFA for the invitation. It’s a good morning to be here. It’s a good day, like you say, sir, it’s a good day to be in Air National Guard.

You know, I would go back to some of Gen. Loh’s comments and so, I want to amplify on those. So when you think about the National Guard’s response, and not just the Air National Guard, but the Army National Guard’s as well, their response to protect democracy following the events following sixth January, it was pretty amazing. And there were doubters that we could do this, which was to put 25,000 boots on the ground in our nation’s capital within a week, and it was done. It was done because the Air National Guard rallied to that on a moment’s notice literally many of the things that Gen. Healy talked about in terms of response timeframes and not just 72 hours, but 24 hours or less. And 14,000 of those bodies were delivered by Air National Guard aircraft into the nation’s capital. And so, to put that into context, to think about that a little bit, is to think about one of the largest Air Combat Command wings, which is the 55th Wing at Offutt Air Force Base, taking that wing and moving it five times in a week. OK, so I don’t know how many other military forces across the world could do that. And that was a true partnership. So that was a pretty amazing thing, and then get them all back home safely too. So that always counts. I think that we did that.

We did COVID. We did some missions that we were never expecting to be in, in the National Guard in the Air National Guard, like being in schools, driving buses, things that really quite frankly, this doesn’t keep me up at night, but I think we have to have a candid conversation about, ‘Are those the right things for us to be doing? Do they enhance readiness? Do they? Do they create willingness and do they create retention?’ And I think that’s something that we are looking at in the National Guard is that national enterprise about saying, ‘Hey, you want us to do X? Does that help us with our mission essential tasks? Does that help us with our readiness?’ And if it does, then that probably makes sense. We have to be cautious about becoming the easy button across the nation to turn to the National Guard time and time again. And yet, our Airmen and our soldiers, you know, they raise their hands and go forward. So it’s a pretty amazing thing to watch.

The other part of that, though, is the relationships, and it’s the relationships with our employers and our communities and our families. Those relationships enable us to do what we do for our nation and for our states, whether it’s the Air Force Reserve, the Air National Guard. Without those relationships, without care and nurturing of those, we do put the mission at risk if we’re not thinking, being thoughtful about that. And so those kinds of things matter day in and day out in, particularly in the reserve components to be able to be effective.

I share the concern about the aging fleet. So, you know, we fly the KC-135 in Nebraska at the 155th. The planes on the ramp there were built in 1957 through 1963. They’re projected to fly sometime into the 2040s, and there’s been some chatter at times about going to the 2050s. Now, that is a testament to the engineering of that aircraft, I suppose. But I’d asked you if you’re driving a 1957 model car to work every day. And I’m guessing probably not. So fleet modernization, and how does the Air National Guard be a part of that, and how is the total Air Force thinking about that, I think is something that the adjutants general do think about and are concerned about. It has to be, you know, the issue of relevance and being a part of the total force means that you’re part of the total forces that go forward.

And as Gen. Brown talks about, you know, accelerate, change or lose. Well, the National Guard and across the states need to be in that mix. And part of that is retaining talent, retaining capacity and talent when there are other budgetary pressures and money shifts to other things, where can you put the talent? Where can you put the capacity? Well, it’s in the reserve components for the same reasons that Gen. Healy talked about. So in terms of cost, so 28 cents, you know, 28% of the cost for the life-cycle of an Airman. That’s a pretty amazing value to Americans, the United States Air Force.”

Bohac: The other thing that I think that we bring to the fight, and it’s really being amplified right now given the events over in Russia and Ukraine, is the State Partnership Program. So the Air National Guard, Army National Guard, this is a program that started in 1993 that doesn’t really get a lot of visibility except to the combatant commanders who would take more if we could afford to give if we had the money, the funding to do it. In 1993, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Lt. Gen. John Conway said, ‘Let’s partner state National Guards with former Warsaw Pact nations that want to turn away from communism and turn toward democracy and become NATO partners.’ And that’s where it’s expanded—far beyond that. But here’s some of the original partnerships: Ukraine with California, Poland with Illinois, Estonia with Maryland, Latvia with Michigan, Lithuania with Pennsylvania, and Nebraska and Texas with the Czech Republic. Those are some of the original nations that partnered with National Guard states. All of those became, with the exception Ukraine, became NATO partners. And they are in the fight with our support today. And so those relationships matter a great deal in terms of our nation’s security interest and our partnerships and with our allies and partners. So I lift that up today where there’s 85 partners, 93 nations that the Air National Guard’s involved in through the State Partnership Program. So when you talk about global reach, global engagement, we’re definitely there day in and day out in that program.

And then I’ll just come back to the issue of relationships. The relationship with the active component with the Air Force Reserve with our joint force partners across the world is what’s going to make a difference. And it’s what, in my view, is going to enable us to move beyond this point where we’re at in the world today and move through this budgetary situation that we’re facing, not just in the Air Force, but in DOD, writ large and be successful, be successful together. If we go together, and we can leverage the power of the reserve components, and in particular, I would say the adjutants general and their leverage with Congress, and, you know, go together on that issue, I have no doubt that we can join in. No doubt that we’ll be successful as we move into the future. Thanks.

Penney: Thank you, gentlemen. So a consistent drumbeat that we’ve had over the last year and a half has been accelerate, change or lose. We know that Gen. Brown has sort of updated those action orders. How has it shaped your strategic direction within the Guard and Reserve? Gen. Loh, let’s start with you.

Loh: Sure. On this particular topic, I would say it goes back to both Airmen and readiness. Those are the two priorities that I focus on. And I’ll just go through them. On the Airmen side, it’s bringing things to the unit like times where I can take decisions made at the STOB when the secretary of defense says, ‘Hey, I need this capability out there, and I can put orders in hand in three days,’ which makes sure that both Guard and Reservists get their orders in a timely manner to get everything going on there. It’s things like implementing the MOMS Act and making sure that we can go out there and do that. It was passed a couple of years ago; we keep pushing that. It is going to be duty status reform and how we get down from the multitude of authorities and pay statuses down to a core four.

And so it’s things like that that we continue to push. On the bureaucracy side, it’s flattening the organization, over-communicating, developing those things and institutionalizing some of the things that we learned during COVID, which is you don’t have to be in a place to actually make an impact. Permanent telework, things like those things.

On the competition side, out of the counter-VEO fight in CENTCOM, we have a group of Airmen that have known nothing other than going to CENTCOM. And that’s all they showed up to work to prepare to do, because that’s what it was. Now, how do I get them out of that and think about China, China, China. And then finally, on the design side, we were, we being the United States Air Force, were placed in a wicked problem set. We have to recapitalize nuclear capability and modernization, as well as recapitalize conventional capable modernization across all three components: active, Guard and Reserve. That is a wicked problem set in today’s budgetary environment, but we need to do it. So now, how can I do that design? How can I leverage everything that we do in things like our combined AETC test center to get after some of the modernization, some of the things that we can do to get into a South China Sea scenario with our legacy platforms, like the 135, that’s gonna be sticking around. So stood up a test bed in Salt Lake City, OK, yeah, cutting the ribbon on that bringing that in, because that 135 is going to be there. So how do I keep that relevant? That’s just one on our old platforms, obviously, on the other one, that’s there.

Healy: Now, from the Reserve perspective, the modification, one that just came out with the chief’s action orders, they still, we still nest nicely in terms of our lines of effort within the reserves. But the way we’re getting after, I mean, Airmen as we maintain for Airmen, you know, we put 45, full-time first sergeants into our units in the last year, 10 full-time chaplains, and we converted 13 of our command chiefs into full-time command chiefs, which really provide that, you know, that face on the ground in order to make sure that our Airmen are being taken care of.

With bureaucracy, it’s a challenging one, there’s a lot of, at the Pentagon, there’s a lot of very prescriptive ideas right now in terms of collaboration tools in order to decrease the timelines for staffing. But what we’re looking at from the Reserve perspective is within and our own reform the organization in terms of how we can break down these silos of data that we’ve collected in our arcane systems into a shared data environment, which allows us to use modern tools, Power BI, etc., to come up with quick data-fed, accurate ideas and actually, in some cases, predictive analytics. So we can not only make a decision, but we can probably see what the second third order effects that we might not have seen before as a result of that decision.

With competition, I think I see A.J. in the audience right there, so a shout out. So he’s one of the guys leading up what we have called a Reserve hypersonics team, which are IMA, so these are pinch hitters. It’s a bullpen of half a dozen to 15 hypersonic experts. I mean, wicked smart people who are essentially on loan where needed, whether it’s thermodynamics of a glide vehicle needs a couple extra people to come work on it. I’m not qualified to do that. So that’s how we’re contributing to the competition. When it gets into the design phase as well, there’s, you know, as you heard, the secretary mention, where my mind focuses is on the SECAF7 and the operational imperatives. And how do we tie into that? So when we’re talking about space, I think it’s obvious. You know, we’re going to be moving forward in space as a growth industry and mission set for the reserves. ABMS, likewise, we’re a little bit underrepresented in command and control but certainly something that I think is a growth industry where the reserves can have a very good institutional role.

And when we talk about the NGAD, or the B21, you know, I fully expect and hope that we’re going to be tied in at the end the onset in terms of associations as those systems of systems come online, and we help develop those tactics and procedures associated with it. A war footing, you know, I think the last week shows that we’re already prepared to be standing on a war footing. Basing’s a little bit more challenging since we don’t have any bases overseas. Moving targets at scale is more of a, not a tactical issue, because it’s from an operational perspective, but we certainly see ourselves working toward the correct force balance within the reserves as part of that design. Specific in support of the seven operational imperatives.

Penney: “Gen. Loh, I’m glad that you had mentioned the test center, because that’s one key way that the Guard goes fast and accelerates change. And I appreciate those examples. But how has the instability of an NGREA funding impacted the ability of the Guard and Reserve to innovate rapidly and then integrate those onto their elderly fleet.

Loh: CR and also the NGREA funding that got pulled in 2020 means quite frankly, we’re out of money at the end of this year, which puts a lot of programs at risk, a lot of that innovation. We get the programs, as the secretary says, across that valley of death, OK? And we do; we partner with the active duty because we have to. It’s through the acquisition community. The PEOs out there are wonderful to us in this enterprise. The lead MAJCOMS, Air Combat Command, AFSOC, Air Mobility Command, all OK, sign off on these things. So they’re all looking at doing that. And now we’re able to bring this to fruition. And so, right now, we need a budget. I’m just gonna say it that way. And then we need a pretty high number on NGREA. Because two years ago, we lost out on that. And so we are running out of money pretty quickly.

Healy: I mean, likewise, purchasing power and purchasing time, we were impacted the same way with the 2020 NGREA pullback. And likewise, the longer we go without a budget, with the uncertainty of what we’re going to be able to spend it on, the less time that we’re going to have to be able to execute, and it’s critical that we do this because of the fleet, the age of the fleet.

Penney: Absolutely. And I believe from Mitchell Institute’s perspective, that it’s unnecessary that we take passthrough out of the Air Force budget. Passthrough is funding that does not go to the Air Force, does not go to the Guard and Reserve. Nearly 40% of the Air Force’s procurement dollars go to entities that are not Air Force. If we don’t take passthrough funding out of the Air Force budget, we’ll never have true insight and oversight into these really challenging procurement problems and the necessary monetization and recapitalization that the entire total force faces. Gen. Bohac, let’s turn to you because you really are the man in the field. And what I’d like to know from you is as an adjutant general, how is your state acting to implement, accelerate, change or lose? And how are these funding issues affecting you?

Bohac: Yeah, I think, for us in Nebraska, and I see this across the states, it’s about leadership creating time and space for innovation to occur so that we can do things to accelerate change. That’s a challenge in the Reserve component sometimes, because you have a limited amount of time with about 70% of your force, which is often two days a week and the so called 15 days a year. Now, I haven’t met an Airman that’s been doing only two days a month and 15 days a year in a long time. In fact, probably can’t remember the last one I met. And so it’s creating time and space against all other requirements to make room that, I think, you know, if we can get out of the way of our Airmen sometimes, we can see amazing results. And it’s giving them permission to innovate, permission to go try things and to fail, and to fail. But to fail forward. So I think that’s, you know, at the local level, that’s … how we pursue it. And then taking advantage of community resources.

So, for example, at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln has an innovation center that’s five minutes from our wing, so we can partner with them, go to their center, leverage their technologies, whether it be 3D printers, and their expertise to help our Airmen. That helps the Air Force, that helps Air National Guard, in my opinion. The funding challenges for us is the stop and go all the time, right? And it’s what Gen. Loh talked about and what Gen. Healey talked about. Whether it’s NGREA or any other funding line in the United States Air Force and the flow into the budgets into the state, when you can’t predict what you’re going to be able to train your Airmen with, because you don’t have the resource, that degrades readiness, and that degrades willingness at the same time.

Healy: I piggyback on that. You know, one of the challenges of COVID as when we started the COVID back in ‘21 and executing under a CR as well, was you know, it’s typically just a math problem to figure out what the 721 account. For us, that’s what, you know, how many drill weekends is … each reservist going to do, and how many annual tours is each reservist going to do? It seems relatively straightforward. It’s math. We’ve got 10 reservists, and they get 47. So it’s 47, or 407. It’s not that simple because there’s a factor that goes into it that says OK, 12% are going to be deployed and constructively credit and so forth.

So when we went into the ’21 execution year with a CR, we were thinking, OK, same same. COVID through a wicked knuckle curve at us and said, ‘Hey, by the way, if you have the opportunity to do that drill weekend at home and actually not come in and do your IDTs at home, and by the way, we’re not deploying you, would you be willing to do it?’ And everybody’s, ‘yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.’ So the obligations went through the roof. And it created uncertainty and created a lot of consternation within the command to be able to manage that. So we’ve ended up having to turn around, and the first thing we did this year going into the CR was to ensure that there was predictability for the basic blocking and tackling of our forces. AFSC training, we made sure that there was no risk whatsoever in terms of that account to make sure that all the drill weekends and all the annual tour was funded upfront. And then we started looking at risk elsewhere, just to make sure that our Airmen could get that training that they needed.

Bohac: Yeah, here’s a real pragmatic impact of that whole CR issue is don’t ever schedule your drill on the first weekend in October, because you’re likely going to cancel.

Healy: I learned that as a major.

Penney: Gen. Bohac, as the president of the Adjutants General Association of the U.S., you represent the interests of 52 adjutants general: What’s their top three priorities as we go into this year?

Bohac: Yeah, there’s 54 of us, actually. So they’re 50 states, three territories and the commanding general of the D.C. Guard. But yeah, the top three things for us are duty status reform. We need to get that done. It needs to go to Congress. It needs to happen to simplify everybody’s life. It reduces the pundants’ discussion about access, I think, when we get this passed, and it provides an equity of benefits for Airmen, regardless of the component they’re coming from performing the same mission. So for example, tankers to Guam to support Pacific Tanker Task Force, an Air Guard Airman sitting next to an active-component Airman may be getting the same base pay, but they’re not getting the same benefits and entitlements. That’s wrong. And so that’s why, that’s an example of why duty status reform matters. And it matters to all of us.

The second one is Space National Guard. That issue has gotten really convoluted by analytics that weren’t fully informed. Quite frankly, where cost estimates to convert 1,000 Airmen from the Air National Guard to the Space Force to become Guardians was just simply not accurate. It’s probably about $300,000 to actually do that, to lift and shift and move. And it’s a zero-sum game in terms of end strength. In other words, those authorizations go from the Guard to the Space Force, they become Airmen to Guardians. And most importantly, though, I think, is the capability that if that doesn’t happen, the Space National Guard, the capability, the U.S. Space Force and Gen. Raymond is going to lose. Currently, today, the Space Control Squadron of the Colorado Air National Guard is on Title 10 activation supporting the nation’s work, supporting our NATO allies. That goes away if there’s not a Space National Guard because those 1,000 Airmen will stay with the Air National Guard. That’s the risk to the nation, not just to that Airman. Risk to nation, risk to capability. And it probably takes, I don’t know, five to seven years to grow that talent and expertise back, particularly in the noncommissioned corps.

Penney: Well, thank you. In terms of ready and willing, one thing that we haven’t touched upon, but I’ll briefly suggest, is that Guard and the Reserve have the most multicapable Airmen out of the entire total force. Gen. Loh, you’ll recall, we had a crew chief that as a civilian worked for the Bama Power and Light, and when we were building up our base, he actually stepped in and helped us build our electrical infrastructure.

Healy: So it’s worth noting, too, that it’s not part of the curriculum, but multicapable loadmasters delivered babies as well, so.

Penney: True. Well, thank you to all of our panelists for being here today. In lieu of speaker gifts, this year, AFA made a donation to enable additional Airmen and Guardians to attend the poolside barbecue last night. Our final set of panel sessions begins at 10:35, so please check your programs for the schedule. And don’t miss the final award ceremony and Spark Tank event starting at 11:20. Finally, for more insights on issues surrounding air power, stay in touch with the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Power at mitchellaerospacepower.org. And make sure you subscribe to our mailing list to receive updates on our latest reports, events and podcasts. Thank you for joining us for today’s panel. And from all of us at the Air Force Association and the Mitchell Institute, ave a great aerospace power kind of day. Enjoy the rest of the show.

Watch, Read: Electromagnetic Spectrum Warfare

Watch, Read: Electromagnetic Spectrum Warfare

Col. William E. Young Jr., commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing, moderates a discussion with Paul Turner, the principal product development engineer with AT&T Public Sector; Lisa Aucoin, the vice president of F-35 solutions for BAE Systems; and Andy Lowery, chief product officer for Epirus on electromagnetic spectrum, or EMS, warfare during the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 4, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Col. William E. Young Jr., commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing: Good morning. I hope that everyone enjoyed that coffee break. And welcome to our session on electromagnetic spectrum warfare. I’m Col. William “Dollar” Young, the commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing. And I will be your moderator for this morning’s panel. Things are moving fast in the EMS space. In the last year, the Air Force has stood up the 350th Electromagnetic Spectrum Warfare Wing to truly get after these challenges from an organizational perspective, but it’s a whole-of-nation challenge, which is why I’m honored to be joined by our distinguished panelists on the stage this morning.

Members of Congress have called for a military head of EMS warfare and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently approved an EMS superiority strategy for the Defense Department. It’s becoming clear that the U.S. military faces an all too familiar choice: accelerate change or lose. On our panel today, we have Paul Turner, principal product development engineer for AT&T Mobility and Access Architecture; Lisa Aucoin, Vice President of F-35 solutions, BAE Systems; Andy Lowery, Chief Product Officer at Epirus. I’ll have each of you introduce yourself and give us a few opening remarks. 

Andy Lowery, chief product officer for Epirus: Thank you, Colonel, and thank you to the AFA for hosting us here in this wonderful event. And great time, it’s my first event, but I’m having a really fantastic time at it. So first, just a little bit about me, I’ve been in spectrum warfare and electromagnetics for the majority of my career at MACOM for a long while, then followed by Raytheon, as the chief engineer. There, I met a man named Dr. Bo Marr, who had an idea about a better way of building a defense company that could pace technology with or could sell technology at the pace that the DOD needed in order to kind of keep up with the rapid growth of what we’re seeing. So about a year ago, I joined Bo on this quest at Epirus. And I look forward to the panel today. Thank you, Colonel. 

Lisa Aucoin, vice president of F-35 solutions for BAE Systems: Thank you, Colonel. And thank you to all the audience and to the AFA for hosting this as well. A little bit about me, I’m the vice president of F-35 Solutions. I have about 35 years of experience, ranging in engineering, operations and micro electronics. I can talk really loud … 

Event coordinator: Because of the stream, we have to make sure that it’s amplified out over the stream. My apologies. 

Aucoin: Yeah, OK. Yeah, we’ll continue with this one. OK. All right. And so, engineering operations, and program management, actually really started my career doing device design, which is kind of foundational to all of the high speed electronics that are really important in the electromagnetic warfare spectrum. So we’ll talk a little bit about that later. Recently, I was the vice president of engineering at our electronics system sector, leading a group of about 5,000 engineers and I’m really excited today to tell you about what we’re doing to advance electronic warfare at BAE Systems. 

Paul Turner, the principal product development engineer with AT&T Public Sector: Thank you. I’m Paul Turner, I go by Kip. I’ve been with AT&T, Southwestern Bell and AT&T, a little over 48 years in roles ranging from field maintenance to supervisory roles now with the wireless access and architecture team of AT&T Labs. Recently within the past year have been assigned to help our DOD public sector teams, make sure that we’re using the latest technology, RF technology. 

Young: All right, so as you can see, we are really in for a treat with such a distinguished panel this morning. So let’s go ahead and kick it off. Paul, let’s start with you. How was the DOD shift to electromagnetic spectrum operations, or EMSO, changing our approach to electromagnetic warfare, and how should telecommunications providers plan and prepare? 

Turner: Great question. As we were discussing these questions, it should be no surprise that most telecommunications providers really don’t think much about electronic warfare. We have started. But we do things to ourselves. For instance, an AT&T site may have up to eight different spectrum bands, ranging from 700 megahertz, all the way up to 39 gigahertz, operating at fairly high powers. We create passive intermodulation when things in front of the antenna passively generate frequencies that come back to us and actually jam our signals. So we developed mitigation solutions for those working with our suppliers. And we’re anxious to test those solutions against real EW. 

Young: That’s actually very interesting, especially given the challenge of putting together various capabilities that have to operate and share the electromagnetic spectrum. So if I could pull on that thread just a little bit, how could the DOD’s approach to electromagnetic protection, or EP, change to ensure that this important aspect of EW is appropriately resourced and coordinated across programs? 

Turner: Well, I feel like the DOD could help to ensure that research continues, encourages the telecom industry, participation from both providers and suppliers to harden their systems against potential EW. Consider things like multifunction research, such as equipment that can perform both communication and detection development. 

Young: OK, and then if I could just one more, because one of the constant challenges we face is ensuring that the various disciplines that are required to execute this set of highly complex operations doesn’t fratricide, kill each other and getting each other’s way. So if I can just get your thoughts on how should the DOD change its approach to the relationship between EW, cybersecurity, and network requirements to achieve better results. 

Turner: It appears the DOD is already changing its approach via the U.S. Cyber Command. However, as previously mentioned, I believe they should encourage ongoing research, development and foster coordination with wireless service providers, suppliers in the telecom industry to mitigate and prevent EW. I also think, and this is not something that’s talked about a lot, should encourage alternative hardened solutions to our synchronization systems. We use, all wireless providers use GPS, and it’s vulnerable at some, some stages. With 5G systems, especially depend on synchronization when you’re talking TDD, time division domain modulation to avoid interference. If we lost that synchronization, you could lose entire networks. 

Young: OK. So let’s shift gears a little bit. Lisa, I’d like build upon your perspective and your experience building fighter EW over a distinguished career. And my first question is, what’s the role of a modern EW system on a fighter aircraft? 

Aucoin: Thank you Col. Young for asking that question. So, you know, I look at this as the modern electronic warfare has three really principal duties. First and foremost is to provide 360-degree situational awareness in real time to the battlespace for the pilot. In addition to that, we also have to provision for threat warning and countermeasures. By passively geo-identifying, or actually by passively, by detecting, geo-locating, and identifying threat emitters in a highly dense signal environment, which gets even better with all these 5G networks, right? We allow the pilot to be able to figure out whether or not he or she should engage or evade from the target, right.

I will further say that today’s modern EW systems are actually an integral part of the overall weapon system on the fighter aircraft. And so we allow the pilot to focus on that mission to either identify and evade, identify threats without interference to the radar, or the radar warning receiver. And that’s a really important capability in these complex systems. And then survivability, we really need to continue to employ RF and IR countermeasures to ensure the survivability of the pilot and his or her team.  

Young: Let’s draw a little bit more on the contested nature of the conflict in the electromagnetic spectrum. Can you can you tell us how are the potential adversaries’ efforts to challenge EMS superiority impacting EW modernization? 

Aucoin: Also, again, a great question, I think it’s of no surprise to the audience here that our adversaries have gained on us. Right, they haven’t been standing still when it comes to exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum as well. So relying on stealth, as we have in the past, is no longer a sole option. Right? And we complicate this picture, because the density of signals out there is getting greater and greater. And the commercial space is contributing to that. This makes the job of electronic warfare a lot more difficult. And so we really have to apply new techniques to help us identify those threats.

And, you know, I think one of the key pieces here is employing the entire spectrum, not only RF, but IR, to kind of branch that range of frequencies, to enable us to detect more threats in real time. Innovations in hardware and software that provide greater instantaneous bandwidth, improved emitter identification, greater sensitivity to the radar and high-speed scanning are key technologies that are imperative for us to keep ahead of the threat. These new techniques will evolve as the threat evolves, and we have to go faster than our adversaries. 

Young: All right. And just one more if I might, the F-35, I believe is an exemplar of a complex system. What are a few emerging key system attributes that are required to stay ahead of the threat? 

Aucoin: So thank you for that question. So I have a few of those that I think are really important, right? At BAE, we actually have a saying in our EW world, which is, speed is life. When it’s time to survive, you have to be faster than our adversary. So you need to adapt quickly. And how are we doing that at BAE Systems? One of that is to develop a common hardware platform that supports third-party software so that whoever has the best idea for countering a threat emitter in, in battlespace can do that. It reduces our cycle time so that we don’t have to re-invent and build new boxes every single time we need to upgrade our electronic warfare capability.

It also improves our sustainability. So the maintainers out there are able to switch LRUs very quickly if a downed aircraft is in a state of battle with another LRU out of another aircraft, or even potentially, in the future, another fighter jet. The other thing we need to do is to be very agile. So there are ways that we can non-kinetically confuse the enemy using advanced cyber techniques and spectrum denial that confuse our enemies that we can evade safely. I think one of the key things is that the future of electronic warfare is really about a low latency optimized to process a lot of data at a very high volume with … imperceptible delay. So, on target. 

Young: All right, thank you very much. Andy, let’s shift gears and move on to you. You’ve been in the EW space for two decades now. Can you tell us a little bit, tell us more about Epirus, your journey to the company and what do you see as the most pressing capability gaps in DOD’s approach to EMS capabilities? 

Lowery: OK, thank you, Colonel. Yeah, first of all, I kind of gave my background in the opening. So I’m still that same guy. So you can rewind if you didn’t see that. Anyways, I think the more pressing question we spoke about when we met not too long ago, around gaps in the DOD. And Lisa, you were just kind of referring to, you said a very special word. You said agile. And I think everyone in electromagnetic warfare spectrum warfare knows that it’s a cat and mouse game. So one of my jobs along the way was the next-generation jammer chief engineer. I’m the one that bid that to NAVAIR a number of years ago. But what I learned while doing chief engineering of that system is that the adversary is always getting better. And by trying to procure new systems all the time, new hardware all the time, and single functionality, isn’t working.

So what we’re looking for at Epirus and what we’re working towards at Epirus is multi-function, software-defined systems. Right? So what’s key about that is that I can take a system like our flagship product, Leonidas, which is a directed energy weapons system, that’s designed primarily to go after, counter drones, all groups, all types, commercial off the shelf, and even militarized, hardened ones. It’s designed to go against those types of drones. But we made the system completely software-defined, so that as the threats evolve, we can evolve. Let’s say a new threat emerges that’s not a drone, it’s another piece of electronics; our system can be updated with apps or missionware, as we like to call it, I’m learning Colonel, you teach me, and we can do that on the fly. So that means a warfighter has a threat they haven’t seen before we identify it, we study it, we send out to the field real time over the air updates. And now that threat can be taken care of.

I think you know, in general, that type of approach to upgrading systems and such will help with keeping pace with—there’ll always be bureaucracy in DOD. And I think by going to software defined systems, primarily software0defined systems will help keep pace with the pace of technology with DOD. 

Young: All right, so I want to pick it that just a little bit because what you’re describing sounds amazing. But many people might say, “Well, Andy, that’s just science fiction. What makes you think that you can in very near term, be able to deliver that capability for the warfighter?’

Lowery: Whoa, that’s a great question, too. So yeah, my last company actually, I founded, I called it Realware, and I use the word Realware because I had gotten sick and tired as the chief engineer of looking at vaporware. Have you all seen some of that? I haven’t, I’ve never seen vaporware. I’ve seen some PowerPoint charts that describe it. But I haven’t seen the systems. So at Realware I always decided to advertise behind where I’ve advanced to in my systems, in my readiness. And that’s the same culture we have at Epirus. We don’t talk about things that are not ready to feel. And a lot of these things sound like science fiction, but they are science fact. And in the consumer world, they’re moving at a pace to create that science fiction into science fact every day. And that’s, you know, going back to the word agile, I mean, that’s the definition of Silicon Valley, is agile.

So at Epirus, what we’ve done is blended Silicon Valley Tech, Silicon Valley folks that come from that field, the consumer commercial field, with solid aerospace and defense executives with the aerospace approach. And by blending those two models, we think that we can continue to define, build, I’m sorry, software-defined systems that are answering the needs of the warfighter today, and then being able to evolve into the warfighters needs tomorrow. 

Young: All right, well, I think everyone in the room would recognize and acknowledge the fact that within DOD, we have a bit of a challenge in terms of procurement and acquisition. So Andy I’m going to come back to you for one more, and I’d like to get your thoughts on how can DOD procurement processes and timelines better match the rapid pace of innovation we are seeing from companies like Epirus to ensure our warfighters are equipped with technologies to counter emerging threats.

Lowery: Well, that question’s like almost as hard as the meaning of life, I think, so. So, right. So on our side efforts, that’s what our mission is, is to be there, be that partner with DOD in rapid advancement and rapid fielding of new capabilities. However, just truth be told, it’s not totally easy to do. And it’s not totally easy. But working in conjunction with different groups like DIU, defense, defense innovation unit, or RCCTO, there are methods being done nowadays to help with the advancement of, the maturation of the product, and the competition of the product. So I think doubling down and building awareness on what’s available to the various military commanders and what types of pots of money that they may have access to that they don’t know that they have access to, I think that might be a good way to wedge sort of the ability for DOD to keep up with the pace of technology. And that’s really the ultimate threat is, we have the engineers to keep pace in America. Do we have the right systems and processes to allow us to keep pace? I guess that’s what we’re hoping for. 

Young: So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Lowery: There’s a chance.

Young: All right. Well, ladies and gentlemen, at this time, what we’re going to do is we’re going to open this up to your questions. And so we have a mic prepared at the center of the room. And what I would ask if you’ll please come to the mic, and identify yourself and state your question, please, and we’re looking for the really, really hard questions for this panel.

Yes, please, if you’ll come to the mic. And for those of you that are thinking of your questions, if you’d like to make your way and then we’ll just form a line, and then we’ll just go question after question. 

Question: I guess is directed at Mr. Lowery or the whole panel. You talked about doing electromagnetic pulses as a defense weapon? What about offensive laser technology? Have you looked into that? Or anybody working on that at this time? 

Lowery: Oh, thank you. Great question. So just to repeat, the question is, what about laser technology? OK, laser technology is spectrum, it’s just way high up in the frequencies. And as you get high in frequencies, you have other side effects. Everything’s a pro and a con, a laser can provide very destructive energy with missiles, to missiles, to drones, to that sort of thing. But it continues to go on and on and on beyond the actual target that it’s implemented on. So the actual, you know, sort of the science behind that is a little tricky, and you need to be extremely safe with your keepout and all that.

The other thing about lasers is they’re not very efficient. So how I won, how we won at Raytheon, next-generation jammer, was focusing on end-to-end system efficiency. Because if you make an inefficient system, you’ll need a lot of cooling and a lot of power, which equates to a lot of weight in order to power the system and make this system feasible. What we’ve done is we’ve exercised, not a new concept, but maybe a new concept in this particular area, where we’ve created a microwave-phased array out of gallium nitride. And Lisa used to run the Andover fab and knows how great gallium nitride is when it comes to solid state. And versus some approach with high powered microwave will do a single channel, maybe a TWT or klystron or something like that. And it will all flow through there, very high power, but due to the single channel, there’s limitations, and there’s drawbacks and side effects. Whereas in a phased array, you have a distributed amplifier front, so each amplifier is less power. But as you phase it up in front of the array, it allows you to get greater and greater powers, but also have the flexibility of electronic steering, the flexibility of complete wave control polarization, wavelength, frequency, all sorts of things. So when we talk cat and mouse, high-powered microwave system, that single channel is sort of a one-trick pony. A laser is a one-trick pony, a software defined phased array system that has an intelligent front end with embedded ML and AI, which is what Epirus’s real claim to fame is, is our smart power, that does the work of that phased array to get those powers and energies to where we need it. That’s sort of where I think the warfighter needs. That’s the type of system the warfighter needs. So thank you. 

Aucoin: Yeah, I’ll just I want to add to that. Just a quick, quick thing. What you said about high power microwaves, advances in that as a use in the electromagnetic spectrum is really important. But I will say that at BAE Systems, we’ve been doing laser warning on rotary aircraft for a long time. And so the challenges around swap and efficiency are real, but they’re known. And so it’s really an engineering problem to understand how you put the right and appropriate laser, and what the function you want that laser to do, whether it’s, you know, directed energy, or whether it’s laser warning, to protect the pilot in the aircraft. 

Question: I’d actually kind of like to piggyback on your answer to the last question. And that that’s when you start talking about these advanced systems that both have really intricate micro electronic hardware, you mentioned, again, I’ll do all our front end, as well as the software defined on top of it. How do you in a company, or in a customer, manage both the software community and the hardware community, which tend to work in different buildings and different career paths and define themselves as one or the other? And how do you integrate that? And can a company do one and not the other? Are there advantages to having both? 

Lowery: That’s a great question. And you know, depending on the company size and scale, and how they’re organized, I think there are different answers. So you know, I would turn over to AT&T and BAE for the larger company answer. Epirus is a startup, it has about 200 employees, and we view ourselves as Skunkworks. I mean, the modern 21st century Skunkworks. And so, we know, we don’t cohabitate like they did up and out there in the desert, but we do kind of live drink, breathe together, we’re kind of a community. And I think that integration, in what I’d call an appliance model, is key. At some point, the software gets down to an embedded level, and it’s talking to chips and hardware. And so at some point, there’s an interface between software and hardware. Our systems largely rely on embedded software in order to do the smart power, the arbitrary waveform generation and all of that. So it’s a coupling that actually makes a lot of sense. When you get into the more abstracted layers, the higher over the operating system layers, we have a separate group that we, you know, basically have good interface meetings with, with the embedded system group. And that’s how we arrange it. At Raytheon, it wasn’t too different, but just a much larger scale. 

Turner: Well, within our group in AT&T, one way that we approach it, we have both software roadmap engineers, and we have hardware roadmap engineers. They work with the same supplier, for example, a Nokia or an Ericsson. And they work in concert. So by organizing to put those functions in the same groups, and we do the same thing on our core side as well. It’s generated some efficiencies over the years. 

Aucoin: So I’ll add to that from BAE’s standpoint, right? We are very, we’re a very large company. And so a lot of our engineering is matrix. But the important part of the matrix piece of this is that when we identify a program or a capability, right, we pull all of those different functions together. So in the case of F-35, for instance, right, we actually organized by something called Drop, right? So we have a given capability. So all of the engineers, systems software, I like to put my firmware engineers in the category by themselves because they have very multifunction, the multi-discipline, and our hardware engineers together. So they understand what the end item goal is for that capability. So we that’s how we organize.  

Question: OK, this question is aimed at Andy from Epirus. So software-defined radio, my understanding is definitely gives you the ability to change systems much quicker. But I guess a quick thing that I’m wondering typically when I think of hardware versus software, I think of software as, in terms of real time, as significantly slower than hardware based solutions. I was wondering if you could talk to, is that myth now? Or have things changed with technology? 

Lowery: Yeah, that it’s, I guess we could get a little complex. But every sort of piece along the chain of the engineering system is being advanced. And one of the big advancements that are enabling a lot of this digitally defined system is the ability to do rapid digital to analog conversion. So rapid D to A so they can do direct synthesis of anything, I can just program into the computer, and I can synthesize it and create an RF waveform. The issue has been a lot, is in the antenna, because after it gets generated and turned to RF and converted, the antenna is usually single purpose, it just does pulse or it’s compressed or it’s that—at Epirus, what we’ve done is we’ve evolved that thinking and we’ve embedded what we call RF smart power within the antenna, and modulate the amplifier in a way using a typical fixed voltages. We modulate those voltages in order to create a definable antenna. So you can think about our phased array as being able to dictate it. OK now, it’s a radar antenna. Dot dot dot … now it’s a high powered microwave antenna, just by programming at a system level. So again, getting back to that previous question about embedded or firmware engineers at Epirus, they’re key to the embedded machine learning that we do and the antenna that can adapt with the missions, whether it’s comms, whether it’s software defined radios, whether it’s software defined radars, which are now becoming more prevalent, we can attend to all of those things. Thank you for the question.  

Question: Hey, Dollar. A question from a Wild Weasel. Let me continue to pick on Andy here. Andy, we’d heard about HPM and high powered microwaves for the last 20 plus years. And they were going to be a panacea that solved a lot of things. And it never panned out. What’s different now? 

Lowery: Thank you, sir. Yeah, that’s a great question, too. And I think—I mean, Lisa is almost like, has a similar career path as me, she could probably even talk to this. The big thing is, that solid state, wide bandgap materials like gallium nitride and other more advanced systems have now become rugged enough, with enough power handling capability, enough thermal dissipation capability, to become as powerful as the traditional methods, which are TWT-based, single channel. If we can meet the same power requirements as the older systems that can kick in the back door and produce these effects, a phased array system allows you infinitely more opportunity to put more energy in the system, to have harmonic type effects in the system. And all of those software defined things that allow me to do that on a older sort of legacy system, they didn’t think about those things, you know, back in the 1960s, when they were doing TWTs. They said, what’s that? They don’t even know what software defined is. So those are the same technologies that some of the other systems are being fielded with. And they come with a lot of human factor, bad byproducts. And so I think that was probably another reason why HPM didn’t take off, is that there’s a lot of different human factor issues associated with those types of amplifiers. So anyways, Lisa, maybe you have something to say as well, from your experience? 

Aucoin: Well, not too much. But I will say that the big challenge still remains, which is how do you get all that heat out? And until we can solve that heat problem, you’re, you know, we will continue to be, in my opinion, probably the TRL 4 level. And that’s really, we need some real key innovations in microelectronics that allow us to have some unique materials that dissipate heat very rapidly for that. 

Lowery: And with more power, driving efficiencies up to the 90s. So that, you know, if you have a high conversion of DC energy to RF energy, then obviously you don’t create as much heat and so Leonidas is just air cooled. It’s it’s conduction, cooled, phased array, because of the incredibly high efficiencies RF smart power is able to produce. 

Question: Good morning. I’m Deb Driver. I’m with Huntington Ingalls Industries. And as Dollar knows, we worked with him and the others on the EMS ECCT. We have a couple people here this for this conference and we have heard EMS and EW only a couple of times. We were excited to see this panel on here. But that tells us that there’s probably some additional advocacy to be done for the issues here, there are a lot of very difficult technical challenges. And if we do not own the spectrum, we won’t be able to fly, fight and win. If we don’t accelerate the change here, we will lose. I’d like to hear from the panelists about what the government can do, what the Air Force can do to help you proceed in these regards. And then I’d very much like to hear from Dollar what he would like to see happen as he’s departing. Thank you. 

Turner: Well, we have a little bit different spectrum position at AT&T. And any wireless provider, we have to use licensed spectrum, we typically, we do use unlicensed spectrum, but we don’t advocate that as much. We do the best we can to protect our spectrum. But I really don’t know how to how to follow that.  

Aucoin: So, I think one of the ways that I think we need to be continuing to think about this is, you know, looking at spectrum allocation and all of that, that won’t get us so far. What we really need to understand and to do is to understand how to actually use the spectrum we have. And when I say spectrum, I’m talking not only about the RF micro-electronics spectrum, but the IR, the RF and IR, as well as the laser spectrum. And one of the keys there is continuing to do research and put money in the, in the areas that, you know, for R&D technology, that allow us to do the exquisite signal processing, and things to actually pull information out of the spectrum we have. So that’s I think one of the key areas, is that research and development, that that helps us with the digital engineering, software engineering, and the systems engineering that allow us to, you know, pull signals out a pure noise. 

Turner: And I did think of something. Free space optics, additional research in long range, high bandwidth, free space optics, for communication purposes, those things are just now coming to fruition. And it’s very exciting.  

Lowery: I just think, you know, recognition that, you know, sailors and soldiers need to be involved in the design process. And so there needs to be money allocated for folks to travel, to come out and see our systems, to work with us out in the field to advance the maturation of our systems, as close as we can be coupled to our customer. That’s a high desire in kind of my book. So something along those lines would be helpful for us as we continue to advance. 

Young: Alright, so it looks like we’ve got just a little over a minute left. And I think that it would be a great opportunity, if I could in 10 seconds, if each of you could tell us what’s the one thing that we have to get right collectively, in order to continue to advance our ability to fight in the electromagnetic spectrum. 

Lowery: I’m going to brown nose the teacher, so to speak, and say missionware. I’m gonna drop that out there. But in all seriousness, software defined capabilities that doesn’t take five years to field, that we can field new capabilities. I think overarching, that’s going to be the most important thing for spectrum warfare dominance.  

Aucoin: I’ll go back to what my theme here has been, making use of the entire spectrum in a cooperative manner, right. We tend to think of RF by itself, we tend to think of IR by itself, laser by itself. We need to make all of those things work together to do what we need them to do. 

Turner:  All that and, from a telecommunications standpoint, speed and cost, speed to market, lowering the cost and speed in development of 5G features.  

Young: All right. Well, ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to offer our panelists a huge round of applause and thank you to AFA. 

Watch, Read: Leadership and Our Enlisted Force Preparing for War

Watch, Read: Leadership and Our Enlisted Force Preparing for War

Fourteenth Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force Gerald R. Murray hosts Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass and Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman in a discussion of “Leadership and Our Enlisted Force Preparing for War” at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 4, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Speaker: Airmen, Guardians, ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the 14th Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, and the chairman of the board of the Air Force Association, Gerald R. Murray.

Fourteenth Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force Gerald R. Murray: Good morning. Good morning. Well, good morning, all. It’s great to see you again this morning. I hope all of you I would say are well rested. I know some of you are not. I got to see you a little late last night. But at least I hope you’re ready for an intense half day ahead today and that you enjoyed your time and found yesterday’s sessions very meaningful. Yesterday morning in my opening comments, I mentioned the AFA team. I would like to take this time on behalf of our board of directors, many are here, to be able to thank our AFA team that organized and executed this, including our staff members, volunteers, led by our executive vice president, Doug Raaberg, Major General retired Doug Raaberg, but an incredible team. So as you have the opportunity today and you look and see someone with the AFA, you know badge on, or these young cadets of ROTC, excuse me, or are CAP, say thank you to them because they have worked extremely hard in being able to bring this. Chief Bass asked me yesterday, she says, “You know, when you see a duck going across the water, it just looks so graceful and glides across, but we know that, you know, there’s a lot of work underneath and how are the legs?” I can tell you the legs are good, they’re solid, but they’re tired as well, so, so give ’em a thanks there for me. Thank you. 

Well, we’re starting today with a topic that’s closest to my heart. Our enlisted leadership, our senior enlisted leadership in both our Air and Space Forces. Our panelists are the ones who are the eyes and ears of the service, especially when it comes to our enlisted corps, those who invest their time in listening to the concerns of our servicemen and women, and understanding what motivates them and what their needs are. And these particular enlisted leaders bring a lot of experience and perspective to the table. It is my great pleasure to be able to introduce and bring to you the Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne Bass and the Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force, Roger “Toby” Towberman. Well, chiefs, again, such a great pleasure to have you. It’s been my great honor to be able to follow your leadership, the things and initiatives that you’re doing. I can just tell you, so proud of both of you. It’s just absolutely incredible for me to have the opportunity to spend a little time here with this audience, with you. So chiefs, you know, we know that the theme of our panel here and focusing on this conference being a warfighter conference, our theme is leadership and our enlisted force preparing for war, or for combat, which is all of what we do. Yesterday morning, Secretary of the Air Force Kendall detailed his imperatives for our Air and Space Forces. Most of those affect parts and different parts of the service. But the seventh imperative that he noted is squarely in your lane, the readiness of the Department of the Air Force to transition to wartime posture against a peer competitor. Particularly speaking, then, I’d like to ask both of you, how are you addressing that with our enlisted leaders in our enlisted force today?

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass: All right, well, you want me to start? Yeah. All right. So first of all, good morning, let me pull up my notes. By the way, you know, Number 14 told us this is a gathering of the minds. So I wrote some notes last night on a bar napkin. Anyway, no, you know, first of all, I just want to say good morning and the big thanks to AFA for doing this and big thanks to our industry partners, as well as our community partners who are here with us. When it comes to operational imperatives, especially the readiness piece, what I might offer on the Air Force side is, we’ve never taken our eye off of readiness when it comes to our airmen. We are, though, very focused on what readiness needs to look like in the future as we move toward a high-end fight. And to that end, we’ve got a force-gen model that we’ve pushed out, which is more predictable for our airmen. When it comes to deployments, we heard a whole lot about the Agile Combat Employment and multi-capable airman mindset last yesterday. That’s how we’re continuing to get after, you know, ensuring that our airmen are prepared and ready for the wartime posture. But in addition to that, our focus on readiness is really, if we take care of our airmen and their families are going to be ready. And so to that end, we’re taking a holistic look at readiness, in particular, to the things that matter, again, to our Airmen, I will also put a foot stomp to Mrs. Brown and Mrs. Raymond on their efforts with “Five and Thrive” book, that’s a guide that they pushed out that every supervisor should have. But it’s really a guide to spouses and families on how they can be their very best to be able to support their Airman, and Guardian. So again, we’re taking a holistic look at readiness.

Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman: Great, well, you know, we’re doing the same thing, like the weapon system that matters most is the one that lives and breathes. And so for the vast majority of the Space Force, Chief, we’re employed in place so that readiness has to be constant, it needs to be all the time, they’ve got to understand how they connect to each other, how they connect to our to our partners. And so there’s this, I think, this increased level of understanding that’s expected, certainly, now that maybe wasn’t expected in the past. And so it’s really a kind of all the time on a fight, not even fight tonight, it’s fighting continuously kind of mentality. And also to understand the environment in a different way, in a way that we really know what’s happening and why things are happening and not just what’s out there.

Murray: Right, Super. Well, Chief Bass, yesterday, and not only yesterday, but throughout, there’s been a great emphasis on Agile Combat Employment, ACE, you know, and so everyone, they know that acronym, because ACE has been put out there exercising, you know, focus on that. So how are you, you know, institutionalizing the concept of agility and flexibility from a shared, you know, the responsibility embodied in ACE?

Bass: Yeah, so what I would offer, you know, we spoke a lot about Agile Combat Employment yesterday, and then, you know, you speak about kind of the understanding that we have to have, how we’re going to institutionalize. That is really about mindset and understanding what the future high-end fight looks like, and how we have to be agile enough to get after it. And it really just can’t just be mindset, it has to be our default, it has to be our DNA to be that multi-capable airman that is needed of us.

Murray: Super. Chief Towberman, also yesterday, General Raymond, you know, spoke on your focus, and specifically the work that you’re doing on the new human capital plan. You know, we all grew up under, you know, the enlisted force structure AFI 3920 630-9 … 3629-03. I’ll get it, you know, dates back. I’m dated a little bit that been a little bit wild. But you know, with that, what is really going to be different from, in Guardian development from the Airman development. And can you speak to the Guardian ideal?

Towberman: Yeah, I’d love to and, you know, the CSO gave me a shot yesterday, sir, I appreciate it. But, you know, the really, maybe the best thing about the ideal is that it really is a grassroots effort. And while I might have been there, you know, encouraging folks and taking notes, this is really what all of our Guardians are asking for, it’s how they see the world, it’s how they see themselves fitting in the world. And, and it’s really easy to kind of write that down when you’re just listening and paying attention. And so, so here we are, and how does that look different? And, how are we building that that [inaudible] that I talked about in September? You know, there’s a few things that to me, stick out. One, we’re not looking at paths, development is not a path thing. You don’t just check boxes and magically become a butterfly. It’s far more organic than that. And so we’re trying to ensure that the investment in 100% of the force can happen 100% of the time, this is not about if you do this, then you can do this and you can do this. It’s about wherever you are, whatever you’re doing, we think you’re important. We think you need to grow and develop. And we want to honor your commitment to that by investing in you. If we can allow every human being to be the best version of themselves possible, then all of that other stuff, promotions, etc., that all kind of happens as a natural kind of product of that. So there’s a lot of things in the ideal that we’re proud of. But for me, it’s this concept of, hey, everybody is going to get an investment. Everybody has the opportunity to make a difference. Everybody is connected in this ecosystem, we’ll care for and nurture and find the best version of everyone, you know, inside of them. I think that you know, everything else kind of layers on top of that, but that if I was just gonna try to say it in 30 seconds that turned into three minutes, that would be it.

Murray: No, that’s a great approach. Really appreciate that. And Chief Bass, I know that you’ve also been in the Air Force working on a new action plan for enlisted force development. How about can you share how your blueprint is, I’ve read about, ties into developing today and tomorrow’s combat-ready airmen?

Bass: Well, first of all, you know, I appreciate the secretary constantly focusing on One Team, One Fight. And you know, when you all released the ideal last AFA, I was excited about it, I was like, we can all see ourselves in that. And I think there was a ton that we can learn from the joint force together. But specific to the Air Force, you know, we just pushed out in late December, the enlisted force development action plan. And I hope that all of our NCOs have that on their desk. But I’ll just give you a little bit of background. When we first got in the seat, our team for the past year and a half has been very focused on if we’re gonna grow the force that we’ve made for 2030 and beyond. How are we deliberately doing that? And what are we doing? And so to that end, we’ve had a whole lot of people with big brains focused on how are we going to develop the force meaningfully. And to that end, we you know, the team was working really hard, we had a product, and we gave the outbrief to General Brown. And what I loved about this in the fall is it was actually called our enlisted force development strategy. And as we released that, and shared it with them, he said, Hey, Chief, I love everything about this. But we are not going to call it a strategy. Because the strategy doesn’t mean anything unless we’re going to put action to it. And immediately, we change it from enlisted force development strategy of 2030 to the enlisted force development action plan. And it has 28 objectives, which really puts us on task on, mostly as an air staff, on how we’re going to get after developing the force that we need in the future. But what I love about it is, there are actionable things that all of us can really get after. And the first objective is making sure that every airman understands the threat at large. And if they understand that threat, and if they understand the greater purpose of why they wear our nation’s cloth, then they’ll have that sense of purpose as they move forward.

Murray: All right. You mentioned joint as well, and of course, we know that we were hoping that the SEAC wouldn’t be able to join us today. But I also understand that you have worked together, you know, with him and the Joint Staff and being able to update and bring a new focus on joint PME. Can you either one of you, or both of you speak to that for a minute?

Towberman: Yeah, so I mean, we’ve known SEAC for a while, right? So he’s no stranger to this room and everything that he did. When he was in ACC, everything that he did, certainly in AFRICOM, to bring kind of a very deliberate plan of attack to developing people is what he’s doing with the Joint Staff. So what we’re seeing what we have seen for several years, with Keystone for our nominative chief positions, now we’re seeing all the way down to the NCO level. So real formal, competitively selected opportunities for NCOs to get sort of, not sort of, to get joint training. Really well done. He’s got a great team. And if there’s one thing I know about Ray Colon-Lopez is, he can make a list and he can check things off. So you know, we’re really fortunate to have him and he’s working through it. And I think we just picked the class so they’re getting ready to start that NCO class and looking forward to it. And it’s really, he also is, you know, I would say, around the table, really leading us well, and we appreciate you CZ. But other things, compensation, he was a big driver in the mask conversation, the COVID, what’s the impact and all these kinds of things and so he’s just been a real steadfast advocate and a great team leader, I think, for all of us.

Bass; Yes. So I go back with CZ, way back in the day when I was a young Senior Airman and he was a very young E-5 in a joint environment in a joint unit. And I will say, you know, I’m actually really proud of where we’re going from a joint PME perspective with that NCO course that started, but also proud of our Air Force, because we are actually kind of, you know, as a Department of the Air Force pushing the Joint Staff to help, get after enlisted PME. And I think that’s a good thing. And they’re listening.

Murray: All right. Well, you shared with me last night, Chief, that you just came back from Lithuania, you had great discussions there with our allied partners, and how meaningful and how important that is, would you care to share maybe some of what we talked last night? And of course, we’ve got allied partners that are with us here, and probably tuned in as well.

Bass: I will, you know, we just got back two days ago, myself and the team from a NATO air CSEL conference out in Lithuania, we weren’t sure if it was still going to go on because of the timing. But what, you know, ended up happening was the timing was exactly what it needed to be. So I was with 14 of my counterparts from 14 allied nations really being there, and an opportunity show our commitment to each other, and the strength that we have in our security cooperation, we also had a pretty amazing opportunity for myself to have a bilat with our Ukrainian Air CSEL. And so I had about a seven to 10 minute discussion on the phone with him to be able to just share some thoughts on what is going on, boots on the ground for for them and be able to give him you know, hopefully some encouragement, but really, you know, what I shared with him is that not only are they you know, inspiring us as an Air Force, but they’re inspiring the world and we look forward to seeing them soon. And until then keep kicking ass.

Murray: Right, Chief Towberman. We spoke just a few minutes ago about agility among our Airmen and in the Air Force. But what does it mean to be an agile Space Force warfighter today? How is it different from say, two to three years ago?

Towberman: Well, I think three years ago, I mean, certainly, it wasn’t long ago, we wouldn’t even say warfighter, right. I mean, that’s the big difference. That as you know, everything has changed. And so I think we’re, we’re leaning into that, we’ve got great human beings. I think agility for us in a warfighter kind of way, means that we have to sort of really navigate this, we’ve got to specialize. We need incredible, specialized expertise to be successful. But we cannot give in to stovepipes. And kind of restricted thinking, this is now I’m this and this is all I am. So how do we build a culture where I allow for the force to specialize as they need to, but also have the sort of permeability between space power disciplines, or between even specialties larger than that? How do I say, Oh, you’ve been a cyber guy for this long, but now we’re going to make an operator. Or, you’ve been an operator, now we’re gonna make you a targeteer. So we really have to have this mindset that says, I’m specializing in this, but it doesn’t define me, this isn’t who I am. And I can do all of these other things in the in the reality of our, the size of our force says that everything that we do impacts everything else, that that ecosystem is small and it’s delicate, so we cannot get too fixed on any one piece. We’ve got to always be paying attention to the whole thing. So I think agility is certainly, as it is everywhere, it’s a mindset. But I sometimes I think it wasn’t long ago where I would maybe get kind of misunderstood on that. I’m not saying we can’t, we shouldn’t specialize. We’ve got to specialize. Like, this stuff takes a long time to learn and to do well. So we’ve got to do that. We just can’t then get stuck. Right. So maybe that’s, there you go, Chief.  I feel like Andrew Ridgeley at Glastonbury. Like I’m the act on the last day of the big music festival. It’s 9 a.m. and everybody’s muddy and they’re like wow, what? What’s happening? Just kind of quiet in here. Google Andrew Ridgeley in Glastonbury later, guys. Let’s shift the discussion about resources a little bit. Again, kind of you know, looking then listening to your bosses yesterday, and certainly the things that we in the association have been, you know, focused on Capitol Hill, you know, continuing resolutions. I think General Raymond mentioned that you total all that together, and across the time, three years of CRs, $2 billion to the effect with just the space for so much less and, you know, $15 billion, I think, you know, since October that, you know, it takes away from, you know, our taxpayers, the ability for the service to execute. So, to that point, you know, but we do know, resources regardless continue to be hard to come by, and it seems everything is a priority. And yet we know, it can’t be. How can Airmen and Guardians best posture themselves for success in a resource-constrained environment? And perhaps, what can we the Air Force Association do for you?

Bass: I think one way to depress us on a Friday morning is to start talking about the budget, to be honest, but you know, what I might offer is right, like, we have to go into this assuming that we’re not going to get more resources or manpower. And so to that end, you know, what are we going to do? And that gets back after what a lot of your leaders here on the stage yesterday talked about, which is empowering our airmen at the lowest level, trusting them, getting out of their way, supporting those innovative ideas that they have. And let’s get after it. I would also say that it’s an opportunity for us to be able to leverage the partnerships that we have, and leveraging some of those partnerships or leveraging the partnerships with our community leaders who actually want to be able to help us get after things that we can’t get out for ourselves. And also leveraging our partnerships with the industry partners that are in here today. Like we need you to, you know, want to be a good American and a good citizen and help us to be able to move the ball, knowing that we have this resource-constrained environment would be extremely helpful. And how can AFA help? I would say, you know, you all do that all the time. And you continuing to be a champion to our Airmen, Guardians and families, you continuing to champion Airman programs, to the folks who matter and the folks who will listen to us and help us ultimately with that budget. Specifically on the Hill with our industry partners, you continuing to champion the warfighter is really what matters, I say it all the time. It’s not an F-35, or a new ISR platform, or B-21. It’s going to be our people who see us through, and so that matters.

Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger Towberman  22:34

So yeah, you know, we’ve all been taught the little quad chart, right, urgent and important. And when you’re standing up the first service in 70 years, that doesn’t work, like everything’s urgent, and everything’s important. And we are running so fast and working so hard. And so, you know, to me, our, in particular, our core values of connection and courage come to mind when dealing with this constrained resources. Because the environment is not such that, that any echelon above you necessarily is going to realize that they’ve given you more work to do, then you can do, and you’ve got to be connected, you’ve got to have the courage to raise your hand, OK, “Hey, I need some help here, because I can’t do all of this, it can’t all be a priority. And I need your help.” I think sometimes this you know, don’t bring me problems, you know, bring me solutions or, you know, solve everything at the lowest level, there’s really well intentioned cliches that we all know that I think do a lot of damage if we understand them incorrectly. There is no shame in saying, “Hey, I actually don’t know how you expect me to get this done with the resources I have. Can you help me out?” We’ve got to have the courage to have those conversations that at every single level. And then we have to just continue to empower the incredibly talented, incredibly capable human beings in our charge. If you’re running things through a choke point. If you’re using, you know, this tyrannical structure where everything has to come up here, and it needs to go through seven levels of discussion before it gets to the one person that can decide, like, of course, you don’t have the resources to get something done. Right. So really, I think, it’s a combination of all those things, right? That you’ve got to be willing to have the hard conversations and you really just have to trust people you have to do the things that only you can do and then let everybody else just run, just go. Pretty fond these days of just having a big capital G O exclamation point. Well, the team will tell you at the end of a very long email where I tell them how to do it, but then I do say go, right, and I think you really just have to get out of the way and let them go. But really make sure you’re listening. Because it’s hard when you don’t got enough people you don’t have enough resources.

CMSAF Gerald R. Murray  25:09

I think that’s an important comment. I, 5,000 I think today grown to 8,500. But to think about what the mission is, the comments and even I was kind of stunned, you know, yesterday listening to General Raymond, General Saltzman and others, you know, just the number of satellites that are being launched that are there for your control, the desire of, you know, all the combatant commanders to have space embedded in those and across the services. I mean, it does amaze me. I, you know, and it’s no different than the, you know, the size of the smallest Air Force that we have, you know, almost in history today as well, and yet the demand across the services and so …

Towberman: And, you know, as to the second part of your question, that’s something that AFA can continue to do for us as well, just keep telling that story. Right. It is, it’s less than 7,000 uniformed personnel today, about another 7,000 civilians, which we always, right, they’re Guardians as well. Everywhere you go, right. If you used Waze today, or listen to Sirius XM, or check the weather, you’re welcome, right? You’re welcome. We got it, we got to make sure that every American understands how space is baked into their very existence. And how modernity depends on that domain being safe. And that unfettered access to and freedom of maneuver is critical to our modern way of life in every single way. So the more people telling that story, especially outside of the echo chambers in which we normally exist, it’s all goodness. So appreciate you just telling story.

Murray: Absolutely. Absolutely. That’s what we’re here for. All right, I know something that we’ve also discussed, and a lot of people have as well. For both of you, dealing with social media. Now in times of social media, trolls, fake news, cyber attacks, how does leadership have a chance to have to change or adapt to what we see? And what do we deal with in media today?

Bass: Oh, social media. You know, so, so General Brown spoke yesterday and said he didn’t even have an email account, right? Like, I didn’t have an email account when I first came in. And you know, what’s interesting is, I didn’t even know what a troll was until I got in this position. I know. Now, my PA told me he’s like, Chief, swarms of trolls. I’m like, swarms? You know, but anyway. OK, what are we talking about? You know, here’s what I’ve learned when it comes to the information era that we’re in, in the information domain that we’re in. It, you know, information, warfare is a thing. And we all have to understand that as leaders, and we have to educate ourselves, we have to educate the force. What I’ve learned in the in the past several years also, is typically, online behavior reflects your offline character. Just think about that for a minute. So to that end, we have to understand this information domain we’re in, we have to hold ourselves accountable. Our Airmen are pretty good at understanding right and left boundaries and understanding respect when it comes to in uniform, out of uniform; on duty, off duty. We haven’t necessarily codified it online and offline. Actually, we did, you know, myself, and General Brown pushed out a memo to the force on the expected behavior when it comes to online. And so just understanding the information environment for ourselves, I think it is extremely important to understand the information environment and how it’s being used strategically, is also very important. You know, and we’ve seen that play out through many things, including current events, and so I would offer, we’ve all got to do our part in educating ourselves and educating our families in it.

Towberman: It’s changed so much. I mean, I remember as a new command chief, Air Force command chief in 2013, being told, stay off, like just don’t go there. And I can’t even imagine that today. I can’t imagine ignoring this incredibly powerful tool, but also, this reality. We grew up being taught to, to go to the DFAC, to go to the dormitories because that’s where young people live, right? That’s where they lived, and you need to go there and you need to see it. Need to be with them. Well, they live in social media now. And we’ve got to go there. We’ve got to see it, we’ve got to, we’ve got to be there with them. I think that, you know, to be successful, you need to, like anywhere else, you need to do more listening, you know, more receiving than sending. You need to be genuine to who you are. And all of us should just kind of live by the motto, to question everything. Like everything you should question, like, do the research yourself. Information is no longer powerful unless you allow it to be powerful. What’s powerful is our ability to think, our ability to connect information, our ability to use information. So if you’re letting a bot trick you into thinking something’s happening, I’d probably rather have the bot on my team than you. Am I allowed to say that? I’m sorry. You’re probably not quick enough to pick up on it anyway. So I’m good.

Bass: But if I can say, I still think as leaders, it’s important that you go out to the DFAC. And it’s important that you get to the dorms, it’s important that we still have that eyeball to eyeball leadership, like, right, virtual, and the social media era, and this information space can’t ever replace face to face leadership. So we have to do those things. We just have to now also navigate the online piece.

Murray: I’ll say an amen to that. And I’m so thankful to have both of you as friends on Facebook. I’m also so thankful, you know, I’m also thankful that I didn’t have to deal with Facebook in my time. It’s just incredible. I mean, I read comments that are made regarding, you know, things maybe that you say or how people pick up on things. And if Sherry was, you know, here this morning with me, she would you know, echo, oftentimes, and to your point, because my question, she’ll tell me, she’ll pick up something, because she spends more time with it. She’s the one that posts. I don’t post things there. But then she’ll tell me something and my constant, what’s the source? You know, and really getting to the facts. So thank you all for that.

Bass: If I can add one more thing, I think as leaders, right, we have to have thick skin, right? And you can’t just go with the waves like, I learned sitting in this position, You know, don’t read all the comments. By the way, you know, so I have a PA—by the way, the chief master in the Air Force is not online on social media all time—I have a PA who manages that. And typically, he does a whole lot of it for me. It is me talking though. And if you ever see a strong clap back, it’s typically me then and then I tell Jared, he’s got to clean it up. So that’s me.

Towberman: I love the comments. I love the memes.

Bass: I love the memes, too. The memes are funny. There’s a couple of funny meme people out there. As long as you’re not mean about it, right? Like I think the it memes are hilarious. I actually sent, I sent some of the memes to General Brown, by the way. And I’m like, sir, we’ve become a meme. So, yeah.

Towberman: So I haven’t told that the CSO yet. But, you know, they’ve been bouncing around the “Semper Soon” meme. I mean, because they’re very, they’re impatient, folks are impatient. But yesterday, sir, with your announcements this week, there’s a new meme, “Semper Satisfied,” which I’m super excited about. Yeah. It’s bouncing around Reddit last night. Winning, you’re winning this week.

Bass: Digress, we digress.

Murray: All right. Well, yesterday, General Jumper asked your bosses a couple of questions. And I’d appreciate your perspective in what you can tell us as well, and it’s about the younger generation that makes up the bulk of today’s Air and Space Forces. How are today’s Airmen and Guardians and their concerns and priorities different or alike from their predecessors?

Bass: You know, you spoke a little bit about it, right? Our Airmen and Guardians are more talented, smarter, innovative, ready to get after it. They have information at their fingertips. In this information age we’re in, many have an attention span of eight seconds. And many just want to have beards. Like you know, so that’s … (applause) I don’t know. But what I will say is right, like we have to appreciate that, you know, we have four generations that are serving in today’s workforce, whether you’re in the military or not for generations, and to understand the differences of those generations is powerful. It’s a powerful tool as leaders and we have to understand that we have to respect it and appreciate it. And the things that might have, you know, my dad served in the military for 24, 26, 27 years, and for you know, the things that led him to continue serving, it’s very different than what’s going to lead my 21 year old. And so we have to value and appreciate that. And we have a whole lot of things we’ve got to get after on the people side of things on the people, programs and processes and the policies to be able to get after what Dr. Schmidt talked about, which is to be able to retain the talent that we need in 2030, we’ve got to understand the differences in generation.

Towberman: Yeah, I, you know, I think there’s a couple really fascinating things that when I look at young people, that if you don’t look closely, and maybe you don’t see. And one is how service oriented they are. They’re very willing to help and to contribute. And so how do we, you know, tap into that. They’re also, they’re so connected. And we really have to make sure that we’re capitalizing on that. Because there’s great power in that. And then the last week, I said, they just, they outnumber us, by the way. I mean, you guys know that right? And you boomers aren’t eating well, you’re, you’re not exercising well, you’re dying out there, they really are outnumbering us. And they have to be dealt with, they won’t be ignored. They’re in charge. The Millennials are in charge. And they want to know why they won’t do things because you told them to. They want to understand. We know we talked about information, where all the information in all the history of the world is in the palm of their hands. They’re not interested in you quoting a rule to them, they want to understand, they want to know why. And so they have to be led through that lens, through our lenses. Let me give you all the information all the reason, all the why. I tell our chiefs all the time, I’m like, I do not want chiefs in the business of sharing information, because they can get the information. Chiefs have to be in the business of sharing the why, the reason. And all leaders have to do is that we’ve got to share the deeper, nuanced meanings of what we’re asking them to do. Because they because they need it. They can Google the rule.

Murray: They can and they work with speeds of clicks. And you’re right and how information comes at them and they gain it. So maybe Chief Bass to you, how do you then help many of the airmen that are working on older antiquated equipment doesn’t have the latest technology, I think even in the Space Force that you’ve got that, that they’re so adapted to in, you know, with their iPhone and things, you know, from, that are outside the military, how do you help them adapt to that and understand that. Some of it’s resources, but it goes back to again, making sure that that our younger generation, you know, understands that and can help us get there faster.

Towberman: I think you, you know, first you just you’re open and honest. You can’t pretend something’s high tech, that’s clearly not, right. And so you I think you have to kind of own that and have an honest discussion. And explain that why, right, and then involve them in the solution. We’ve got 50, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but in a population of 7,000. We’ve got 51 what we’re calling super coders now, coders, we’ve got two data analysts that we’ve brought through the program, we’ve got 27 others in training at the moment. So you know, very quickly 70 out of 7,000 is no small percentage. They have some pretty high end, digital capabilities. And so we’re really, I think that’s the answer is to not pretend that something’s awesome, that isn’t, and then involve them in the fix.

Bass: I think if I can add one more thing, right. Like, it’s always interesting, because our Airmen always say, like, I wonder if our leaders know, you know, I wonder if our leaders understand the challenges we have? And I’m like, Yes, we do. And we share those challenges, right? Like, we’re frustrated with the IT systems that we have. I mean, beyond belief, like, as many times as you have to add in your PIN, I have to do that too. Like it’s, I mean, I send stuff home to my phone or my whatever so that I can actually watch you know, whatever I need to watch because can’t do it on my own. So we share in those frustrations. But, you know, the privilege that we have is our opportunity to be able to sit in the room with our senior leaders who are having those very tough budget discussions. to watch it play out, and to know that our senior leaders are fighting for those discussions and where I’m encouraged is, you know, we’ve made a stance on here, here is the foundational things that we have got to make sure that we are funding, and cyber and IT is one of those things, Airmen programs is one of those things, we have to start to fund the foundation of what makes our Air Force move out. Because we can’t modernize if the foundation is not where it needs to be.

Murray: Well chiefs, we’ve got just a few minutes left. I you know, a lot of Airmen and Guardians out here and I, also listening to you, we’re told that there’s about 5,000 registered for the conference, both here and out, out in the audience, but maybe a little bit of insight to you know, each of you. Because as you spoke, you have to have your view on so much, so wide across the force and involved in and all. How do you, and perhaps can you speak to your priorities? What’s in that inbox? What’s on the scope? What is then you know, as you look longer range? And how do you organize and compartmentalize and work that?

Towberman: You’re far more organized than me, you should start.

Bass: You know, what’s interesting to me is my team tries to always keep me in check. Right? So yeah, y’all need to give it up to Team 19. Because they, because I come back from, yes, give it up to Team 19. They remind me that everything can’t be a priority, right? Like because I’m pretty fiery. And I come back and I’m in the Pentagon. And I’m like, we need to get after this. And we got to get after the end. And I have a whole lot of priorities. But I also have to be realistic, like what are we going to be able to get after. I will tell you that I don’t think there’s a thing that matters to our airmen or their families that we’re not looking at, like nothing. What matters to our Airmen and families matters to us. And so we’re taking a deep hard look at promotions, evaluations, how we do assignments, how we actually manage the talent. Again, I keep talking about Dr. Schmidt, because I very much appreciated you know, his perspective on talent, because I’m focused on how do we retain the talent that we need in 2030? Well, it’s not going to be because of policies and processes from 1990s. In the early 2000s, we’ve got to change and get after all of those things. So lots of focus items there for this year, particularly, we’ll make some changes on the enlisted evaluation system. I am hopeful that we are actually going to digitalize WAPs testing, like it is 2022. If we can’t get out of taking a number two pencil into promotion tests, something is wrong. We have got to modernize some things. And then oh, by the way, there’s some assignment — You know, when it comes to assignment policies, we’ve had an assignment work group focused on that we haven’t taken a holistic look at how we manage assignments since the ’90s. Today’s military family looks very different. And so we have a whole lot of things that we can actually do for free. By changing some of our policies. We’re gonna, we’ll roll some of those things out this year as well. It’s a lot of stuff. I don’t know if we’ll get to it.

Towberman: I know we’re out of time. So you know, I’ll say last week, General Thompson and I talking to some cadets that were coming into the Space Force, and one of them asked me, you know, what, where I thought we’d be in 30 years, and, and I said, you know, wherever that is, the only thing I really want, I think like a parent wants a good life for their children. But what I really want is just that we’ve created something that they’re proud to be a part of. And so, you know, my priority every day, is to remember that there’s 7,000 folks in uniform, another 7,000,who aren’t, and then the their professional progeny for 15 generations that I’m just trying to make sure that we don’t make a mistake, that we build a service that they’re proud of. Because if we can do that, and if we can deliver an experience that they want to be a part of, they’ll win the war. That’s the easy part. Ops is easy. People are hard.

Murray: Look, I want to thank you both. Chief Bass, thank you for noting, you know, “Five and Thrive.” And because, and I want to thank to both Rachel and Ron, for you know what they’ve done and being able to join Mollie and Sharene in being able to take and focus on our families because we know that that is even a greater force multiplier in our readiness and our ability to be combat-ready and what our families provide. And I will tell you that it’s exciting to be able to see you know, the focus that’s given today. And we in AFA look, to be able to take and help in every way we can in that aspect as well. But ladies and gentlemen, please thank again our two great chiefs. We are so well served.

Watch, Read: Implications of Unmanned and Autonomous Systems

Watch, Read: Implications of Unmanned and Autonomous Systems

Air Commander John Haly of the Royal Australian Air Force Air hosts Krystle J. Carr, senior director, autonomous aviation and technology, Boeing defense, Space, and Security; Tony Bacarella, vice president of advanced programs, Elbit Systems of America; and Chris Pehrson, vice president for special programs, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, for a discussion of “Unmanned and Autonomous Systems” at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 3, 2022. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Air Commander John Haly: Hello, everyone, my name is John Haly. If you aren’t planning on hearing anything about unmanned systems, you’ve come to the wrong place. But welcome. Thanks for coming and interest in the next 40 minutes. We just saw briefly the names on the board, but I’d like you to welcome Krystle Carr, the Senior Director for Autonomous Aviation and Technology from the Boeing Company. We also have Tony Bacarella, the Vice President for Advanced Systems from Elbit America. And Chris Pehrson, the Vice President for Special Programs from General Atomics, who are here today. So thanks very much. And we’re going to leap right into it with a handful of questions. So looking forward to what they have to say.

Air Forces across the world have been refining concepts and requirements for autonomous systems for some time, and we’re seeing them used more and more. We know that autonomous systems can lead to cost savings. It can lead to better use of our workforce across our air forces, and services across the joint force.

And I think importantly, and it was touched on this morning in a bunch of the discussions particularly by COMPACAF and COMACC. The use of these systems as a way to have force preservation and importantly, to look after the women and men that otherwise would be in harm’s way if it wasn’t for the use of these systems.

So with that as a little bit of a scene setter, let’s go straight into the questions. I’m going to I’m going to ask first, Chris, to talk to us so I just as I just said, the proliferation of these unmanned autonomous systems, you know, brings with a greater roles and advancements, but they’re clearly implications in what and how we do things we structured ourselves within the domain with our plans and with C2 [command and control]. That was based on what we knew of aviation, right. And it was based on the way we knew air forces fly, fight and win. So can I get you first, Chris to talk to us about what you think the implications are for us with what we have otherwise known as our approach to things like mission command, commander’s intent, rules of engagement, or even centralized command decentralized execution concepts that we think we’re comfortable with, but may need to [unintelligible]?

Pehrson: Great. Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone. That’s a complex question. Forty minutes is not going to do it justice. But briefly, just to set context, General Atomics is kind of synonymous with unmanned systems. We’ve been in the business for about 30 years that we’ve delivered 1,000 platforms and 7 million flight hours. So quite a bit of pedigree there.

In the early days, you mentioned automation, and it was more about increasing the productivity of the efficient efficiency of the pilot. Things like automated checklists, automated takeoff and landing, very deterministic decision trees that would follow with automation, but that’s more evolved into an autonomy where the airplane is actually sensing the environment, reacting to the environment non-deterministically and making decisions—mission command decisions—following commander’s intent, but doing it with its own decision making logic.

I think key to the question is trust. We have to build trust that a loyal wingman with a fighter or type of aircraft, first of all, is not going to have a mid-air collision, that it’s going to be able to do the mission that you’re tasking it to do and do it reliably. And then have the mission assurance built into the system. As you’re managing the air battle, you’re guaranteed that it’s going to be able to perform mission.

That’s going to start with things like maybe adversary air or target drones, just flying in close proximity to manned aircraft or other unmanned aircraft. But eventually it’s going to evolve into a fully autonomous system where you’re going to give it a mission, and that’s going to go out and prosecute that mission. You’re going to have high success and high confidence that it’s going to get the job done, and then come back to do it again the next day.

The unmanned systems—they talk about different groups and give us group one to group five males, the hails, that’s kind of an artificial taxonomy. It should be really driven by mission capability, the mission you’re trying to perform. I think unmanned systems are going to be integral to the force because that’s the only way you’re going to be able to cost effectively have the qualitative advantage that we need to bring to the fight.

We want Dorito chips, these really exquisite platforms, but as much as we can afford, we’re just going to get the snack pack of Doritos. We need the family size bag of potato chips, not just a few exquisite breaking places in case of glass.

So I think that unmanned systems are going to be integral to the daily ops tempo of everything that we do. And it’s going to be an extension of the pilot or the battle managers, situational awareness, you’re going to provide that disaggregated sensing, you’re gonna have defense in depth because you can put unmanned systems at risk and put them closer to the fight. You can have a breadth of awareness because you’re expanding your sensor grid and your sensor web. And actually the new mode melt modalities for sensors are going to require unmanned systems because it’s not going to be a single monolithic platform with one sensor onboard. It’s going to be a disaggregated network. And they’re all going to be feeding data with precision timing and precision communications and just really bringing all that together for a shared situational awareness and in a true combat web net centric warfare, you know, these concepts we’ve talked about, theoretically for years are finally coming to reality. And trust again, trust is the foundation we have to build trust that it’s not going to put our own crews in danger, but it’s also had trust that it’s going to perform the mission may assign it Thank you.

Haly: Thanks. So in the concept and of integrating these things together, I think, in the best case, right? We all go out in our flight shops around the world and through the different [unintelligible] and we come with these elaborate for structure plans that have this beautiful system-of-systems kind of approach to it and it all gets put together. But in reality as we come together as different services different nations we form coalitions. We get into the joint force where we’re more likely to find ourselves with a force structure within a coalition. That’s a bit of an odd coupling of marriages of different bits of equipment from different OEMs or coming together to try and work for common purpose. So I guess, Tony, could you talk to us about what you see as what can be done to ease those sorts of integration things both in advance of needing to and in the worst case, as we cobbled together coalition’s such as we see in flashpoints around the world potentially agreed.

Tony Bacarella: Absolutely. Elbit Systems of America [is] heavily focused on the artificial intelligence side of the UAV-UAS area and mainly we focused on how do you deal with trading these APIs. That’s going to be when you think about every interest service and really quite intra-country. The reality is there’s so many different mission sets, so many different platform requirements, so many different ways to deal with teaming, that training the AI is going to be one of the biggest challenges we run into. So creating a modular approach that allows fast and rapid training so that you can have the competence the trust that Chris was talking about a little while ago is going to be pivotal to making these all making this work and especially talk about going across the boundaries that you just discussed. We have to come up with a modular approach that allows you to go into a synthetic environment to get the training on these multiple missions and the different environments that every one of these nations sees. And these inter forces see and how do we go create that confidence by creating a synthetic environment that does that? So we’ve done that and we think that’s an important part of this is to have the AI be trainable and the synthetic environment and drop the operator and the team and the command structure to that so that you can go permutate it over and over again so you can get the confidence required to deal with these things—both inter-force and inter-nation.

Haly: So just to follow on from that, so if we’re training the AI in a synthetic environment ideally ahead of its use, how sensitive then are we to essentially being trained down an ideal case, which is not fit for purpose when we actually cobble together a coalition and find ourselves in something that where the enemy has a vote and it doesn’t go according to our plans or expectations?

Bacarella: If I understand the question, if I don’t just please clarify the question … the way we look at it is you nailed it. The corner cases are going to kill you. Okay. You come in and you train for something very specific. They do something just a little bit crazy at you. You don’t know how to react to it. Your AI does not react. Your team doesn’t know how to react to it. So creating the synthetic environment that allows you to run those permutations and the processing capability to do that right now in a training environment or are constrained as we go towards quantum computing, etc. That allows us to go do these permutations and run them over and over and over again, so that your command structure gets vetted. Your artificial intelligence algorithm algorithms get better. How do you do your teaming gets vetted and it’s pivotal to being able to get the trust and the confidence that’s required to move out from that.

Daly: In fact, it sort of goes back to what we were talking about there because we then also need to circle back and start training those who set or expect certain rules of engagement, operational seats, who the way that we intend to command these forces when they’re presented to the component commands.

Bacarella: Just one quick comment: Autonomy is not a one size fits all. There’s platform autonomy, there’s multi-ship autonomy, and your small-package formation. Then there’s also the mission autonomy, the wider perspective of all the assets working together systems and systems.

Daly:  Great. So Krystle, let’s talk about digital engineering, because not only is there the sort of training of AI components, but there’s also essentially the testing elements as well as well as I guess, adapting. So how do you think digital engineering is? Well, could you first start by telling us how it’s being applied, I suppose in this sort of autonomous systems market, and how it’s helping, you know, ultimately us as your customers to be better prepared to win that fight using these sorts of systems.

Krystle J. Carr: Right, thanks for the question. And I think that you’ve layered on very well all the different pieces of what makes autonomous systems work. So it’s really important that as we have these autonomous systems, part of what makes them great is that they are when you look in the mission context, you’re willing to let them go. And so they have a different kind of way you would train way you would employ them, way you would maintain them, all of that. And so if you’re going to have this kind of capability that you don’t necessarily want to want to keep for a long time.

It needs to be an efficient and affordable price and Secretary Kendall spoke this morning about loyalty means being at least half the price of whatever it is that they’re protecting. And I think that’s fair. I still wonder if that’s even a little bit more expensive than where we really want to be.

And so Boeing is doing it taking great strides in digital engineering, and from multiple programs we are implementing it and where we’re going with it is being able to have the digital twin [unintelligible] from the moment you put a bolt on an airplane to the moment you retire it out of the service. So having a full set of information that is at your fingertips to be able to understand to learn quickly.

And therefore, therefore you’re reducing. You’re reducing the amount of testing that has to be done you’re reducing the number of hours and spent doing just the engineering pieces of it the cycle of trying something fail-fast, becomes a lot more affordable when you’re when you can do most of the testing in a virtual environment.

That doesn’t mean that you don’t ever bend metal it doesn’t mean that you don’t go fly and test your prototypes to make sure that what you’re seeing in the digital environment is real. But you can do a lot more digitally first. And so we’re doing this not just in the autonomous systems market.

So we’ve got the T-7 program that is fully digital. XL UUV is in our autonomous systems bucket and that’s our better underwater vehicle. Air Power Teaming System, which is my baby in particular, is fully digital, and as well as in [MT?] 25. And what we’re seeing we saw both on T-7 and Air Power Teaming System with using these digital tools, we’re able to get from concept to first flight in 36 months on both.

So that to me that shows repeatability. And where your Power Team system is concerned it is a much smaller vehicle than any of the fighters or other vehicles that it might protect. And we can put a wing together and about a day and it’s all digital. We’re using our full size determinant assembly which is reduces all of the manufacturing time. The touch labor goes away. And then because it’s so simply produced, it’s easy to go and maintain and repair in the field and that is exactly what we’re looking for. So we have kind of started to test the what does it take to put a vehicle together that’s already been produced in not knowing what the learning curve was going to be. We assume that it would take about seven days to do that. Wel,l with mechanics that hadn’t seen the instructions before they were able to put an airplane together in two days. And we expect those types to continue to go down as we train and we learn more about the airplane. So by using the digital tools, you’re able to get things done a lot faster, which really for the warfighter means that we are going to be able to acquire that capability to employ it much faster than we would have with traditional engineering methods.

Daly: So just for the record, I’m clearly as the stupidest person on this topic on this on this stage, so I’m gonna I’m not lead the witness with any of these questions. But are the regulators, are the bureaucrats’ acquisition processes—are they keeping up and giving enough credit to the what the benefits of digital engineering can bring? Or are we essentially holding ourselves back from realizing all those types of benefits because we are prepared to trust in the magic just yet?

Carr: I think it’s a journey and we’re on that journey together. We have those conversations about is this really real. So being able to show the production line being able to show the product and let people touch it and see how it comes apart or how it is put together and then go and kind of look at the digital twin and see how everything that was predicted is as measured. I think those are the important conversations that we have to continue to have but it is on us to continue to perform and show the benefit so that the services will be more likely to trust and believe that this is real.

Haly: Yeah, right. So I think that same sort of journey, it’d be fair to say that we’re also on that just broadly with autonomy, writ large.

Chris, could I get you to to expand a little bit on probably the fundamental differences that exist between air vehicle autonomy versus mission autonomy that you were talking about before? And where you think we in uniform, or we across government, need to catch up or need to grow and learn to meet the opportunities?

Pherson: Sure. So I think foundational to the autonomy is going to be an open mission system configuration to open architecture between the different platforms, not only heterogeneous, different types of platforms manned, unmanned, but also on the platform itself. And we’ve flown our Avenger with both the Code and the Odin autonomy court system as part of the skyward program. And in order to enable those to fly we also have what we call an open OFP.

So there’s a there’s a flight safety boundary basically. So the checks and balances on flight safety are with our open OFP core flight management system onboard the aircraft. But because of the open systems architecture and the OMS messaging and such we can communicate with the autonomy engines that are actually giving us the flight behaviors.

So if we’re given a say, a bounding box of airspace to stay within, that’s being commanded by the Odin or Code software, but the open OFP is actually providing the checks and balances to make sure the aircraft behaves in a safety of flight manner.

At mission level autonomy, this is more like your more non-deterministic reaction to the threat environment if you have a stare threat pop up or adversary air, this is dynamically sensing the environment and then in a collaborative manner, autonomously reacting to it. So I’d say that [unintelligible] autonomy is keeping the aircraft in a safe box that’s telling him to search out this way and look for adversary air. Once that’s detected, the mission autonomy has to take over now has to be able to command the constellation of aircraft to reposition themselves to get the right firing solution, the right targeting tracking solution, whatever it may be, and work more of a system of systems approach to the autonomy.

One is different behaviors, I guess, different characteristics, but it’s all about the intent of what you expect and want the platform to do. So from the friendly side it’s acting predictably have that trust that it’s going to do the mission. But from the adversary side, it’s going to have enough dynamism in the in the force presentation to defeat the adversary basically.

Haly: Yeah, it’s interesting. It’s, you know, we’re talking about mission sets. That are so varied, that this technology will help with. We spoke this morning, we heard COMACC talking in particular about things like, you know, defensive static bases, where mobility is not available and what autonomy can do there, all the way through to the high end warfighting things that we were touching on a second ago.

Tony, talk to us a little bit about what, what Elbit is doing to kind of position themselves across that sort of range of mission goals so that we can have the future we deserve for this.

Bacarella: So at Elbit Systems America, we’ve really focused as I said before, on the artificial intelligence side of it and all the all the ecosystem that surrounds us so that you can go through this and synthetic embedment into that. But that’s one aspect that we’ve invested in as well.

We see that there’s a huge need to go to new power sources, and they’re investing heavily in new power sources so that we can get the ranges required for new mission sets where we’ve obviously been invested. I think a lot of you are maybe familiar, maybe not, but our EW [electronic warfare\ capability sets are very strong and so we put a lot of focus. The RFC can destroy, the EOC can destroy—methodologies, the mesh networking for teaming.

All of that comes together into a comprehensive capability set that we are able to modularly put in place in different areas. So we’ve created subsets for the EW side that can go out into the RF, the EO, the AI all separately, so that they’re modular, and they’re open so that people can utilize them in different mission sets.

And then we take all those and we can go validate those through our synthetic environment as well. So that’s the heaviest area that we’ve gone in focused.

We’ve also put a lot of time and effort into airframe development for the different mission sets as well. But we see we see things really focusing on modularity more than anything else, and then being able to validate that through a model based system. So those two things in concert I think are going to cross the line too.

We talked about going you know, across different forces, across different missions, and then, working with our partners in other countries, your area they were talking about just a moment ago, I think it’s gonna be critical. When you’ve got a digital embodiment, you’re gonna be able to go take that now and Australia will have a different mission set in some ways or another. And once you’ve got that digital platform, you can go validate that.

The same thing happens with the AI in the synthetic environment. Now you can go validate the platform, and go validate the AI algorithm you want, you can validate the target and make sure that you’ve got a 3D vision of that, that you can go permutate and validate that you’re gonna hit the corner case as we talked about earlier. So those are all the key areas that we’ve really focused on.

Daly: Okay, thanks. Krystle, we’ll get on to one of one of our favorite topics in Australia. I’d like to talk about the or give you the opportunity primarily to talk about the airpower teaming system that Boeing is bringing forward. So can you talk about that in a context not just of what we hope it to be, but both the opportunities as well as the challenges associated with that, and in the manned, unmanned teaming kind of concept.

Carr: I think, to get to man-to-man teaming, so we’ve done between industry and the government studies over the years on what the capability gaps are, and it showed that [unintelligible] wing men in certain spaces make a lot of sense. And so the opportunity that that our company took was to employ the engineering team in Australia to go and figure it out. … The threat is all of our threat. The threat is in Australia’s backyard.

And so there’s there was a different sense of urgency when we started that program on going and making that happen quickly. So part of going and making things happen quickly also does present some challenges. So there are things that then become inherent and a design that you’ve got to go back and figure out how do I advance that at design to make it more operationally relevant for the long term?

And so those are the some of the challenges that we’re working through.

But the way that we’ve set up our program is that there are kind of generational cycles for design. And because it is digital, we have more of an opportunity in a short timeframe to cycle in new technologies, kind of like Tony was talking about, where if I’ve got the digital environment, what I can do is, this subsystem is important here, but maybe I want to go do a different mission. How will that integrate into the system? Where’s the right the best right place for it? How can I and then go and validate that.

I think that that’s really important. And then the way that we are doing things is we’re setting up the right production line, The platform itself is modular, which gives us the ability to move quickly continue to move forward and even be able to retrofit things that we need to on previous platforms.

And so I just I think we have a lot of freedom to go and do that. I’m really excited to see its scale. So right now we’re still in the theory phase, we’ve got kind of low rate, let’s kind of catch up, let’s put stuff together. But scaling to an actual at-rate production line, I think, is the thing that I’m most excited about on that program. And really any of our new development programs that are focused in the digital world because being able to prove out that these things can work is going to be where we get the best bang for our buck. As you know, coalition nations, right? We’ve got the challenges ahead of us. And I think making sure that we don’t get lost in just the technology advancement and we continue to remember why this matters is what’s going to help us to make sure we’re doing things safely, efficiently, simply providing the right capability that warfighters can trust. Because is about the trust and autonomy.

But what we want to make sure is as we get these, we darken the skies with the loyal wingman. What they’re not doing is creating other challenges for the pilots. The pilots need to be able to focus on their particular mission—not be worried about whether or not the other plane next to them is doing what they’re supposed to be doing. The ideal situation is that a pilot sees a loyal wingman on their radar and goes,: That’s mine and I know that it’s going to do exactly what I want it to.”

But I will say that the other challenge there then is making sure that as we trust we also do question because if there is for any reason there’s been tampering, something has been taken over, we want to be able to respond quickly to that too. So challenges on the warfighting side as well as challenges on the scaling side, but I’m really excited to see where it goes.

Daly: Great. What about the challenge of integrating these types of capabilities and perhaps you might all contribute to this. Again to you, Krystle, when you’re having to integrate it with manned systems from different manufacturers or different generations of aircraft, potentially different pedigrees, and I guess concepts.

Carr: I think that gets back to the open systems architecture, but open systems architecture across the entire fighting force. Being able to have interoperable platforms. It’s why all of the efforts that have been going on around making sure that things can talk to each other and that there’s not vendor lock is critical to our success. And if we don’t do that, if we kind of sit in our silos and continue to say, “Well, if you layer on these 15 other things, then it can talk to the other platforms.”

I think we all have to accept that none of us have all of the solutions that are going to meet the needs. And so we’ve got to figure out how to work together and having that just open systems architecture, I think is the way.

Bacarella: I totally agree. It’s really hard to do a one size fits all right. It’s virtually impossible. So having an open systems architecture is going to be important there. But there’s always going to be the puzzle that has to that piece that’s going to have to change to make that work. I don’t know I don’t think there’s a lightning bolt that can come in and fix that regrettably. And how you work as a company with companies together to go overcome that I think it’s going to be critical. The whole point of that digital architecture, like you were talking about before, would be great if that was transitioned to the platforms as well. So that we were also taking when you go to bring a new platform in every one of the platforms that’s existing, had the ability to go be a digital model as well. You know, that’s the one best thing I could see going forward that would have a big impact, although I haven’t seen it.

Pherson: I think the digital … modeling and simulation is so critical to that interoperability and integration. I think autonomous systems will breathe new life into fourth generation assets. It’s going to enhance the relevance of your rivet joints and your AWACS and the legacy systems we have today. But augmenting them initially, providing them greater sensor range, greater coverage, greater situational awareness and eventually probably superseding them. Disaggregated network of unmanned or collaborative systems is the future to survivability and resilience that we need in the future fight. But if you have high fidelity models for things like AP SIM or the war games that we’re playing, that’s how you experiment and test these out. Air Force and industry, we think, we’re narrowing down on the right solutions, but we still don’t know yet. We’re still defining the problem set I think. But eventually as we invest dollars and resources and commit to something we’re going to drive down to a point solution. We better be at the right point solution when we do.

Daly: Great. I’d like to give you I guess each the opportunity to talk about how your respective companies are positioning yourselves. Some of that we’ve already touched on a little bit but probably the I guess to package it and wrap it because we have companies that are in very different areas of what’s a broad church have this sort of capability. And I think more importantly, I’d love to hear what you’re most excited about for the next five years or so, about showing to the world and developing. I’ll start with Krystle.

Carr: Okay, let’s see. So, going autonomous systems is positioning itself in a number of ways. We’re starting with the kind of that digital thread, so our purpose or desire is to have digitally advanced simply inefficiently produced products so that as needs are come to bear we’re able to meet those needs and with the autonomous market, I think things move fast. I don’t think there is a one size fits all for any solution, but the quicker we can move to provide any kind of capability to fit each of those different use cases or gaps is really important. And I think that that’s one of the ways that we are positioning ourselves.

In addition, in the autonomous division, we’ve got products that connect from seabed to space. So we’ve got the extra large undersea vehicle. We’ve got MT-25. We’ve got we’ve got a parent teaming system. We’ve got even Liquid Robotics’ Wave Glider. All of these things … can either help connect and can help be forward and saying be able to just be in different pieces of the greater fight. That’s what we’re doing and how we’re positioning, and it’s really about speed and it’s about being a force multiplier and giving the warfighter the ability to go focus it on high value to asset and targets. And so for me, still very excited about how we’re going to continue to move forward, being able to move fast. And for me, in particular, seeing airpower teaming systems scale to the greatness that it could be. I know we’re laying the groundwork for that now and so that is those are the things that keep me going every day.

Pherson: The future is exciting. Yeah, we’ve been very successful with the permissive persistent MQ-9 family—the Reaper, the Gray Eagle, the Predator. Probably so successful that we’re identified as the poster child for that counterinsurgency fight. We’re breaking out of that paradigm. You know, the MQ-9 is going to be bread and butter for the company for quite a while it was going to stay relevant. It’s repurposing and reinventing itself for the great power competition, whether that’s in a maritime role. I think there’s a great potential in the maritime arena with antisubmarine warfare and surface search. We’re repurposing it for standoff SIGINT and electronic warfare capabilities. That’s proving itself today and in the real world.

But I think what’s really exciting now is some of these projects we’ve been working on for decades, investing in the technology the human capital, we have a [unintelligible] facility now to do more of the sort of survivability type work that started over a decade ago when we started U class. And we’re bringing some of these to fruition. You probably just saw the announcement for Gambit [unintelligible] will be assessed platform today. You know, these systems that previously where we worked as a single ground station with a single aircraft on a single target is kind of a stovepipe, in the theater, doing its mission and very tight with the Special Operations and ground forces.

Now we’re taking that persistence and reliability and affordability to the air domain with defensive counter air and base defense and really getting that MTI situation awareness in a persistent affordable way to the wider fight. And that requires integration, the collaboration, the autonomy. So like Gambit, that platform, we have a next gen one called MK-9 replacement because the mechanics can be around but something that can persist in a less permissive environment and do what the MQ-9 does today for ISR and precision strike. It is very exciting for us in the future.

Bacarella: At Elbit Systems America, we’ve already talked about how many times the AI side of things, the synthetic side of things, is a big part of this. But we as a company have everything from the platform down to all the sub modules to do [unintelligible] capability set.

We don’t look at it like we want to go out and be just the total platform solution guide. We think that the future really comes down to there’s going to be a bunch of different solutions and a bunch of different areas that are going to need tools from every company to make a successful route forward and being highly modular and having that model-based capability so that you can integrate easily across the different companies is critical.

And so we have brought a range of solutions that they range from all the way across the spectrum, to be able to go provide those into the different solution providers out there and look to work with those as we have in the past. But in addition to that, I think that you know, going back to the AI side of things for just a moment, the 4-D world synthetic environment capability that we built is not to be understated. It’s is a multispectral capability so that you can model any target or any environment like a real world condition and then emulate and simulate the actual sensor that you want to use in a given environment and do it in any permutation that you want.

And it goes back to this validation in this trust and digital environment that we talked about. It’s all really all hitting on the same centered focus of how do we go make an AI system actually be trusted and utilized in the field. And so we’ve really focused on that and created an environment that’s going to help validate that. I think that’s the thing that we bring that’s different and compelling into the market space right now. We have all the building blocks for everything else and obviously love to collaborate with everybody and continue to do that in the other areas. But that’s the thing. I think this is most compelling.

Daly: Great, thank you. And then I guess, to pass comment from a government perspective. It’s really clear the opportunities that we have in front of us but the challenges I think, you know, they’ve been touched on today and they can’t be understated and, and it’s they’re not new challenges. The challenge of how do we integrate systems that were designed for different domains so that they can work or design for different nations or designed around different requirements? Those are, those are challenges that we see in so many of the other elements of what we do as we build our forces in whichever nation you’re in.

We will always—us, me as an Australian—with the United States, with all of our friends and partners around the world, we will always sound like we have an accent when we talk to each other. But if we can build the systems that don’t have a digital accent, when they talk to each other, then we give ourselves the preconditions for the interoperability and the interchangeability that fundamentally we need if we’re going to meet the challenge of our day. And so, I think, where we’re concerned that vendor lock between companies within the same nation, within the same industrial base, may prevent integration that problem is just as large if not larger, when we talk about what we do together.

And in a fundamental mathematical sense, the United States has about 330 million people. The United States has treaty allies together. Just the treaty allies have 1.3 billion people—excluding your population.

So there’s a lot of people in the world who are bound by treaty to share the same ideals, the same values and to defend the same things, if we are provided the capacity to make a meaningful difference and stand side by side and do so together.

And so, insofar as we need to have open architecture for the things that we build, as we develop this technology, we need to have an open architecture in our relational approach to each other, as we all prepare to meet the challenge and ideally do that in a way that doesn’t bring populations into the line of fire.

So that’s my that’s my soapbox discussion, which launches from what we’re just talking about. We’re going to take a couple of minute early mark before we do that, let me first say, as has been said in many of the sessions this morning, in lieu of speaking gifts. AFA instead diverted that into opportunities for more guardians and more airmen to join us this afternoon for the barbecue. So that’s wonderful. And if you could all join me in thanking these guys and importantly, the representatives of General Atomics Assistance of America and the Boeing Company for the contribution today and in what is a challenging field, but certainly the start of something that I think will be unquestionably a part of the Future Force of tomorrow. So thanks very much.

Watch, Read: Bringing Space Superiority Into the Light

Watch, Read: Bringing Space Superiority Into the Light

Lt. Gen. Michael A. Guetlein hosts Bryan “Stu” Eberhardt, senior director, global sales and marketing, Boeing Satellites; Erich Hernandez-Baquero, executive director of Raytheon Intelligence and Space; and Sherman Johns, director of space strategy and growth, SAIC, to discuss “Space Superiority” at the AFA Warfare Symposium on March 3, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Lt. Gen. Michael A. Guetlein: Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining us for this afternoon’s mission capability area session on space superiority, a subject that until recently we really couldn’t talk much about. Before I turn the floor over to our esteemed panelists, let me briefly introduce them. First, Mr. Stu Eberhardt is the Senior Director for Global Sales and Marketing, Satellites, Space and Launch Defense and for Space and Security at the Boeing Corporation. He’s a retired Air Force officer and was previously a Program Manager for Boeing Phantom Works. He now oversees development programs supporting both commercial and US national security customers. Dr. Erich “HB” Hernandez-Baquero is the executive director at Raytheon Intelligence and Space and is a retired Air Force Colonel. Before joining Raytheon he was a senior material leader for the National Reconnaissance Office ground enterprise, and holds a PhD in imaging sciences from the Rochester Institute of Technology. Last but not least, Mr. Sherman “Papa” Johns, is the director of Space Strategy and Growth at SAIC. Mr. Johns is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, and before joining SAIC, he served in numerous space operations assignments, including as the commander of the 4th Space Operations Squadron and as a director of operations at the National Space Defense center. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us today. Okay, without further ado, let’s get started with HB. HB, how do you define space superiority? And how do both industry and government partners influence that definition?

Erich Hernandez-Baquero: And sir, at first, I like to say I’m so privileged to be here with you and with the panel members. And thanks to the AFA for letting me be part of the program. I think we have a pretty good working definition and doctrine today for what space superiority is—basically freedom of action and denying the adversary that freedom of action. But really the dialogue that we should have is, how do we achieve that. And you know, to do that, you need that space mastery. And I think industry can provide a lot of resources and capabilities to enable that. And so thinking about the space domain more deeply, and thinking about it in terms of the physical network and the cognitive dimensions of that domain, we can look at, you know, some major trends that are happening that are going to require us to, really rethink how we deploy our capabilities in the physical domain. What used to be fairly stable orbital strategies for how we would deploy our systems now are more dynamic trajectories that have to be put into place. So maneuvers becoming increasingly more important, as well as all the logistics and supply chains that are going to support any sort of responsive action that we need to provide. So those are going to be some factors to consider. And then network dimension—General Whiting, this morning, emphasized the threat of cyber attack that we’re going to have to protect against, but also the network is what’s going to link the space domain to the other domains. And it’s going to enable joint effects. And I’m primarily thinking the long-range kill chains that are going to be necessary for stressing scenarios like the defense of Taiwan. So the the network dimension and the mastery of that is going to be important. And then finally, in the cognitive area, where we’re now talking about the OODA loop and getting ahead of the adversaries’ OODA Loop. Leveraging technologies like AI and machine learning, enabling autonomy in a distributive framework are things that industry is prepared to provide. And as we work with the Space Force, these are some concepts that I think we need to come to the front as we think about space superiority.

Guetlein: Okay, thank you, HB. Stu, how does industry find their place in space superiority market and the mission area? And what best practices can be utilized either from a business case or government incentives to foster beneficial government and industrial partnerships?

Bryan “Stu” Eberhardt: Thanks, sir. Thanks for the question. First, honored to be here and, you know, AFAWS, you get to run around and see all the young Airmen and Guardians that are the future leaders and this exchange is just phenomenal. So I really appreciate the time and the ability to be here with these folks and be able to talk about these, these are issues that we’re all staring into today. And when I think about how we fit, how does industry fit into the space superiority market or mission area, I like to chunk-ize things and I would I would break it into four areas. Starts with culture, secondary would be capability. Third one would be capacity. And the fourth one would be readiness and somewhere in that readiness and capacity arena, you get your availability, your Ao, right, and all our air brethren kind of really resonate with Ao. So you sit here and go, you know, to be brief, I’ll just focus on two, I’ll focus on culture and capacity. And if you go with the definition that he talked about, you kind of go, OK, freedom of action in space, and you go, we always had that freedom of action in space. And I think we’ve all recognized that that freedom of action is under threat, right? So culturally, now, you sit here and go, OK, how do you need to think about space, you got to think about a whole lot different if that’s the case. And you got to start thinking in maybe in terms of red kill chains, maybe in blue resiliency capabilities. And I would offer that industry’s role there is let the engineers start thinking that way. Right? Classically, the engineers that were designing space systems weren’t thinking too much about what kind of resiliency features do I need to have? And classically, they weren’t thinking about what kill chain do I need to stop or prevent from happening. But when you do start putting them into those mission threads, and you start running vignettes with engineers, it’s amazing the kind of innovation that they can come up with and design into the system, whether they’re designing the actual capability of the system, or they’re leaving hooks in there for future capabilities to counter the counter. And I would offer that that’s where we fit in, that culture piece. And you know, you could probably add some other chunks, but I’ll lean into the capacity really quickly. The footing and the posture of industry to manufacture at the speed of relevance that the warfighter is demanding is an investment that industry has to make, right. And that’s going to be resounding across all the industry partners. And I can tell you that you know, that we’re all stepping up, we all recognize what has to occur and the and the changes that have to occur. And analogous to that, you could look at the air domain and go, OK, what incentives do you guys provide to bring industry along, and I would tell you that those incentives are already there. The incentives of the exchanges that we’re having, the incentives of how you have been messaging, the systems that you want to buy, how you’re asking for resiliency, those are the types of messaging we need to make those investments in the capabilities to shift the manufacturing base and be able to provide the capacity you need. Right, we used to play those war games where you kind of look at reconstitution. And it would take you two years to reconstitute a satellite. That’s totally unacceptable. So where are we reconstituting from on orbit? Or are we going to reconstitute on the ground and have that capability ready? And that’s a capacity function that really does lean into where’s your Ao? Where is your availability, to either be resilient against the threat or to counter it?

Guetlein: Thanks, Stu. Papa, so Stu talked about incentives and manufacturing capability. What do you see as some of the fundamental enablers for the space of priority missions, specifically, the resourcing and actions needed prior to weapon system delivery and operations? And how can industry help with these?

Sherman Johns: Thank you for the question, sir. I appreciate it. First, I’ll say thanks to FAA, for allowing, you know, all of us to sit on this panel and for this venue, really appreciate it. As to the question. So, Stu, I’m glad you brought up culture. Right. So I will answer that question three ways. The first one is digital engineering is a thing. Digital engineering needs to be applied and digital engineering is a foundational enabler to provide systems for space superiority. The next one is a robust infrastructure for testing. OK. Now, the culture piece that Steve just talked about is the third one and that’s essentially a robust infrastructure, not just for testing, but a robust infrastructure for training. OK. So I think we’re all aware here that we no longer operate, or the United States no longer operates in a benign environment. And as such, it’s threats-based operations. And so we need to train, industry needs to help our government partners, train Guardians, to essentially operate in that threat-based environment. And that requires a robust training infrastructure. So I’m talking about mod & sim that’s physics based, right. I’m talking about visualization tools that allow commanders to look at a problem and actually make decisions in a timely manner to where it matters. And I’m talking about a robust, I’ll call it a training range. OK, so both virtually and physically, and I think industry can help with all those things. Let the warfighters do the warfighting and let us help with those three things.

Guetlein: Thanks, Papa. So HB, how do you having just retired, having a new perspective now being on the other side of the aisle, if you will, in talking about incentives and capacity and digital engineering, etc. How can industry best support the acceleration of the development and acquisition processes?

Hernandez-Baquero: I think some of the process Stu was talking about and Papa was talking about are definitely key. You know, this whole investment in digital engineering is critical for us to accelerate the way we bring solutions to the fight. In just a short time I’ve been in industry, I’ve been pleased to see there’s been a lot of energy applied to really learning that craft, which is very different than how we used to do system engineering. And, you know, when you couple that with agile processes that are designed to deliver modern software, that really is what we need to be able to leverage to bring, you know, the digital revolution to bear against these problems. You know, the live virtual constructive environments, the modeling and sim, I think that’s also key, you know, some of the things that I’m seeing, the space warfare and analytic center doing, where they’re sharing threat analysis with industry, and then we have the dialogue about what the force design should be. I think we need more of that, we need to do that more frequently. I would like to see industry provide a little bit more capacity for that analysis, so that we’re not so throttled in terms of how fast we can make those trades across the domain. And, you know, those are things that when we know the threat as an industry, we can then really align our investments to make sure that we are ready with the capabilities that the government’s gonna need. And, you know, if we’re going to do more buy before build, right, there needs to be a good market signal, that industry can then say, OK, if I put the investment in this area, I’m going to get a return because I know this is a capability that the government needs to do. And so we can do a lot of work ahead of time rather than react to a solicitation when it comes out. So you know, getting ahead of that need, understanding the thread working closely. And, you know, the other thing we’re doing is, you know, we advocate open architectures, modular open architectures, because that allows you to change the right places where and adapt to the threat. And that’s another way in which you can continually adjust and improve your systems. On the flip side, I think it’s not a panacea, we’re never going to get to a pure plug and play where I can just bring my box, it goes in, and it does what it needs to do. So we need to have a really good understanding of how the various capabilities that we provide play into the overall system of systems. And so what we’re doing, at least in our case, we’re looking to expand the number of offerings so that we can cover the whole system architecture that’s needed for space, all the way from sensors to the spacecraft, through the transport and into the ground and in the processing. That way, we know the government is going to not buy a fully integrated system, right? We got that. But at least we know, okay, when we design each piece, we know whether its contribution is going to be into that architecture.

Guetlein: Thanks, HB. So to get after some of these, these capabilities you guys are talking about, we really need partnerships. So for Papa, what barriers to entry exist that the government can help remove to aid industry and delivering space superiority capabilities?

Johns: OK, I’m gonna, I want to talk about one. So thank you for the question, sir. And I think we’ve all heard this one before. And that’s classification. OK. I will say, though, that, you know, I’ve been with industry for three years or so. And in that time, I’ve seen sort of warp drive advancements when it comes to sharing information with industry. So kudos to the government on that. Absolutely. But there’s still work to be done, I think, and so, I completely understand the need for classification. But in order to help out industry, you know, obviously bring down some of that to the lowest level that you can possibly get to, and then, obviously share that sort of information often and early. And like I said, recently, industry has seen that this has worked really well. And I would say, to continue to do exactly that.

Guetlein: Thanks, Papa, For Stu, so Papa brought up the classification problems that we have, often with space superiority. And, been talking about the partnerships. Are there any specific technical areas, for example, manufacturing capabilities, or technologies that need to be maintained within the US to enable the best industry support to US space superiority?

Eberhardt: I’m pretty passionate about that. I would offer that—I’ll give you a contextual perspective on why I’ll hit on some of the things I’ll hit on. Right. So when I think about the space systems of the future, we classically used to think they were hardware systems that had software and that was a model right and we had old spaghetti code and when you went to go break that out, you had to retest the entire line again and run it through. And we all know how that goes. I think the future to provide the flexibility that you’re going to require for a space superiority system, I think you’re gonna need to think in terms of software systems with hardware nodes. And when you start going down that road, and you start thinking through the flexibility of applications and what you can change, and what functionality can you adjust on the fly of a given system that oh, by the way, archaically, we left up in space, instead of bringing it home? Right, it’s there, you can’t go get it, you have to have that flexibility. So if you start thinking that way, you start going okay, well, now, I’ve opened myself up to a lot of interesting threats and vulnerabilities in and around cyber, right. So if we’re so dependent on the software being advanced, we’ve got to then think through the cyber threat. And so when you start pulling that thread, and the value stream, you then eventually get to processing capability. And you need that zero trust capability in house needs to be in US borders. I think that’s something that we really need to focus on, we need to focus on being able to do FPGAs and ASICs on our soil. If you want to get to zero trust, and I get zero trust, right, it’s kind of a, it’s perfection. But I might achieve excellence, while I’m trying to get to perfection, right? We probably won’t get there with any kind of zero trust capability. But at least you’ve got it in house and you can control because that really drives you down into the supply chains. You want to be inherently trustworthy of as you’re building these systems, not let any vulnerabilities go outside. So I think that’s one capability that we really need to focus on and have a little national conversation around it. Because it’s a big deal. I think there’s others out there, I won’t elaborate too much. You know, we have a subsidiary, Spectra Lab, right. And I’m a true believer that the development of our solar panels and our solar arrays needs to be done in house in the US. And we shouldn’t even consider trying to outsource that anywhere. Again, it’s a supply chain issue, critical element of the system to operate in space. And so as you as you pull that thread, you can kind of see the theme, right? These are all critical things, as we think through, you know, what, what’s required for these to operate and you start drilling down into those technologies, and you start getting down to the lowest levels. And you can start seeing, Hey, these are the supply chains we all need to be focused on. And we need to be making the capital investments to keep them in the US.

Guetlein: Thanks, Stu. I’m going to actually build and ask you to think on the other side as well. So the secretary this morning talked about the “One Team, One Fight.” And as you talked about zero trust, a big item for myself, Space Systems Command and the Space Force is allied by design. How can industry better support the U.S. in establishing and operating with international coalition partners for space superiority?

Eberhardt: Yeah, so this is a great one. You know, we sell commercial satellites to commercial service providers, some of them out of Germany, some other foreign countries. And one thing that I would say that I’ve seen some recent success in is ITAR right, so I’m talking about supply chain issues. And obviously ITAR you know, the International Trade Arms Regulation, right, restricts technology from going overseas. And that’s all good. However, when you start talking about your allies and friends, and you want that similar coalition capability, right, you want to be able to work well with your allies and partners, right? Some of them want to actually buy U.S. systems. Right? And I’ll tell you, when we were working through the Boeing, Boeing Defense Australia, we have an office down in Australia, and we’re working with the Australian Defence Force on a SATCOM program called JP 9102. Right. Everybody’s put their bids in for the SATCOM system. I saw huge success and advancements in the government’s response in helping us to justify why we could sell what we were selling to the Australians. Number one, they’re an ally. Number two, you’re not actually—you’re delivering the technology into space. And number three, a lot of the technologies that we were selling were actually commercially available technologies. It’s just that that wasn’t well understood. And the government opened the door for us and said, Hey, you guys have to make the case. We’ll help open the door for you to make the case on why is this not ITAR restricted? And we were able to go in and work through all the demands that that ITAR require from you. That partnership that came out of Deanna Ryals’ office, actually for you, sir. That partnership was great and it—She helped all the all the folks that were working through those challenges. And that is part of the role and responsibility that she’s taken on, is to do that huge, huge benefit to the industry to, to have the government in partnership and working through it or like, read the regulations to get that capability into our allies hands. I think it’ll be game-changing, the more we kind of exercise that process. I think the better it’ll get.

Guetlein: Thanks, Stu. So for the audience here in about two or three minutes, we’re gonna open up to your questions, if you want to be thinking about your questions. There’s a microphone right there in the middle. So I’m gonna go over to HB. You talked a little bit about the commercial services, how that markets kind of maturing, you and Papa both did. What do you see as the capabilities that industry should be investing in today to support the market needs of tomorrow? Do you see on orbit servicing as one of those? Do you see data as a service? What do you see?

Hernandez-Baquero: Yeah, that talks to not only technology, but the business model, right, that we’re going to be providing capabilities on. And so I think that’s important to consider, because I do think that there are some inhibitors, when it comes to the business model that’s not allowing us to take advantage of some of these commercial technologies. And, you know, whether it’s data service, and you know, you talk about software being kind of the dominant element of this being, when you look at the capital investment that’s happening in the commercial world on software, digital technology, artificial intelligence, machine learning, modeling and simulation, autonomy for vehicles, and 5G networking. I mean, there’s just huge capital, right, that’s going into commercial, going for that. And when you look at the value that warrants the investment that commercial puts into these technologies, it’s because there’s scale, and you’re able to pay as a service. But when you look at the way we’re selling these sort of technologies in the government, we’re not doing it that way. In fact, sometimes we’re even reticent to even take on a license. There seems to be kind of this mental model that I should just be able to buy an app with a two-pizza team. And some apps you can write, and actually, I do think we want to be able to drive to a lot of capabilities where we can, in fact, just either buy COTS or have a two-pizza team develop that right? Using DevSecOps, those are all the right sort of objectives for sure, some technology. But if we’re talking about it, for instance, distributed battle management and command and control capability, that’s going to have to be resilient to threats and operate in a very dynamic environment and overwhelm the enemy’s OODA loop. I don’t think you’re going to be able to plug and play that. And so there needs to be, you know, this kind of business model in play. And then I think industry will respond accordingly. And it’s going to be those investments and modeling and simulation that’s going to enable really that high-end AI. And we’re going to hear from Eric Schmidt, in the keynote here after this. How do we accelerate AI? And I think, that is one area that we’re significantly undervaluing right now. And I’m not talking about the basic automation of, you know, current existing processes, or even the pattern recognition kind of work. I’m talking about the AI that’s going to drive to that sort of distributed autonomy, that’s going to massively increase the scale of operations that we can levy on the enemy. And I think I think those there is an opportunity there, but we need to have a frank dialogue about the business model to enable that.

Guetlein: Thanks, HB. So Papa, what is industry’s role in delivering space superiority services, and products at speed?

Johns: Okay, thanks for that, sir. So I’m still an operator at heart. Right? So I’m going to speak through three things here. And one of those are very operationally, I guess, focused. The first one is, say, processes resources—the three are processes resources, and sort of systems of systems. And I mean that in a different way, I’ll get to that in a second. So the processes essentially adopt modern approaches to delivering systems, right. And so what I’m talking about there, again, we can talk about digital engineering, specifically digital twins, right? And when we start talking about digital twins or models of systems, I’m talking about to the to the entirety of the lifecycle of that system, and I think industry can help there. Right, so I’m talking all the way from analysis to procurement into testing and training operations and full circle back. So that’s the first one. The second one is sort of my, I’ll put on my old operator hat, right, revolves around resourcing. Okay. And so what I’m talking about, there’s industry partnering with the government on things that are support to warfighting, but are not warfighting. OK. So if I’m looking at an operational squadron, for example, that could be something like engineering services, training, those sorts of things that support that squadron, right. But it frees up the operators to actually do warfighting to do mission analysis to execute those things, and then debrief afterwards. So that’s the second one. And then the last one I mentioned is, so we’ve sort of touched on this one already. When I say system of systems, I’m really talking about how do we, how can industry help the government sort of integrate the military piece into the bigger space domain? So I’m talking about all the stakeholders, right, so I’m talking about SDA, NASA, Space RCO. And then we can keep going on the list. And I think industry’s sort of unique, they’re a little bit because we tend to have our tentacles everywhere, right? We have them in all those organizations. And I believe that industry can help when it comes to integrating into the bigger space domain.

Guetlein: Thanks, Papa. So I’m gonna, I’m gonna ask one more question. And then I’m going to open it up the audience. But I want to build upon what you just said, and for Stu as well. So you talked about how we would be using commercial in a time of conflict. And there’s been a discussion about blurred lines during conflict, when we were in Afghanistan or Iraq, it was very clear to tell what was Title 10, Title 50, what was commercial, what was allied, and we drew very bright lines between those lines. As we start going into the space fight in space superiority. There are those of a camp that says the government has to own all the capability on orbit for space superiority. However, as we start having mixed constellations of both commercial buy before you build, allied by design, etc., those blurred, those lines are going to be very blurred about, is this a commercial asset and allied asset? Or is this a DoD asset? Given that blurred lines, how do you as developers propose that we should design the systems and the RFPs to enable you to be successful? Stu?

Eberhardt: Yeah, so. So assuming the blurred lines exist, right, because there’s obviously, the government has a policy debate on their hands there on the use of commercial assets and what happens during the time of war. I would offer that I have a general agreement with the use of commercial assets for space superiority, because I think of space superiority in a much broader context. You know, going back to the original definition that you guys put out there, right, the freedom to operate in space. That being said, when I stare across the line of the commercial satellite business, and I stare across the line of the government satellite business, we do run into some roadblocks that we’ve seen. I think first and foremost, I have not seen from the US government a request for capabilities that cross Mil Ka and Commercial Ka. Just haven’t seen in the US. I’ve seen it from Allied partners. technically possible. Right. But haven’t. haven’t been asked for that. I do know that when we sell our commercial services, satellites, right. We’re all dealing with a lot of the same things, they run into interference, right. And you got to geolocate, fine, what’s interfering, because they’re losing revenue. Well, you know, translate that into the contested warfighting domain on a on a purpose-built, you know, asset. There is some hardening that happens on the government side, right? That CapEx decision on the commercial, the business case doesn’t necessarily hold water for that hardening unless you can pull an anchor tenant, like multiple allied government customers, to justify the investment they’re going to make to harden a commercial asset. Right. So when you think through the requirements and how you write those RFPs, right, you have to think in in those types of terms, right? A business case needs to be made for someone to go invest in a commercial company and provide a commercial service and it might be a commercial service that you want to be there. So if you want that to be there, but you have a little bit more stringent requirements for standoff distance, maybe its anti-jam capability, those kinds of things. You have to decide if you’re willing to bring some of that investment dollars there, because you are staring into that scenario. And then on the flip side of that, you also got to, you know, look through the system of systems. I think there was a really great discussion by HB and [inaudible] here on exactly the the terminal population of the of the forces crossing between that commercial Ka and mil Ka, right? And the cost that comes with that as well, right? You have to think through that requirement, right, you can put that capability on orbit all day long. But if you haven’t thought through the ripple effects of what happens to the rest of the system, and where the other buyers are in the system, all the way down to the end user, you then start running into trouble there too. So that was one example. And I’ll leave it as one single example to kind of walk through as you’re thinking about the commercial versus government. You do have to get down to what’s the minimum viable product the warfighter needs to win the war. Right? What do you need to win the war? It might be more than you think. But certainly, when you’re in peacetime, expand that capabilities all day long into the commercial market space, and then maybe even have some commercial backhaul that you’re going to rely on during the war that you know isn’t vulnerable.

Guetlein: Thanks, Stu. Papa?

Johns: As the warfighter, I would say. Okay, so this this this is a question that’s been sort of asked forever and has really not been, we haven’t cracked the code. Right. I would say this is sort of a policy question. Right. And my opinion is that policy needs to be defined. And industry will obviously follow suit. Now as to, you know, minimum viable products and commercial versus not. It’s just, uh, this one’s just hard, and space is hard as we all know. Right? And so I really don’t have a good answer to be honest with you, other than I would say, yes, absolutely. The policy on this one needs to be defined by the US government, and then industry will follow suit.

Guetlein: Okay, thank you, for HB. So we’ve seen a significant explosion and innovation across industry, like we have not seen since the drive to the moon, and a renewed sense of energy within the US population. We are see an enormous amount of investment capital go in and talent rushing into the space market. How do we continue from two big primes, for you and for Stu, to continue to grow the small businesses? How do we embrace the non-traditionals? But more importantly, the valley of death that they talked about this morning? How can we as the government knowing how the budget process works help bridge that valley of death?

Hernandez-Baquero: Yeah, that’s a simple problem to fix. But no, we are seeing these trends. And I think we have an opportunity, obviously, because I haven’t seen this kind of energy around space, just out there and the outside of the fence that we’re seeing now. So that’s really good. And so one of the things that, that I’ve seen recently, as we’ve just recently joined industry, you know, the typical defense model for how we do human resources and manage careers, and all that is not really aligned to attracting and retaining the talent that we’re talking about. And so it puts the onus on us really to think differently about how we do HR in our businesses, as well as thinking differently about how we partner with those non traditional institutions. And we’ve got some good experiences recently, where we’ve been providing some innovative solutions to the government, and frankly, leveraging, right, the innovation is coming out of these small, non traditional providers. And that’s working pretty well. So we don’t necessarily have to own that workforce, right? We just need to be able to establish those commercial relationships with them. And what we find is that they really don’t want to take on, right, the big, you know, what it takes to contract with the government? They want to continue to innovate and say, OK, well, we’ll do that part of it, and you bring your innovation and we’ll, you know, there’s some agreements that we can set up for that. And I think that’s a that’s a pretty good model. But I still think that we need to do more in terms of how we do HR and how we attract and retain that that sort of talent in house because ultimately, if you don’t have that you can’t have an effective buying or partnering activity that you do with the rest of them. Today is really tough. There’s a really tight labor market out there right now. And so we’re feeling the pinch on that, and the classification requirements don’t help either. And so that that’s another challenge that we have, in terms of the valley of death. I think, in part, it’s being able to wade through all of the myriad of technology that’s out there and being able to apply it, and show how it actually will support an operation or a capability. So going back to the earlier discussion on the threat analysis, and the force design and the modeling and simulation, you know, creating more opportunities where we can bring those technologies and have—I know the SecAF is kind of turning the crank away from just aimless experimentation, and more towards very conscious return on investment for operational effectiveness. That’s all goodness. But I think there’s some level of experimentation that’s focused on a hypothesis that’s derived from some operational analysis that we could do to help bridge that gap in terms of what the technology can provide and how we how we implement it into operations.

Guetlein: Thanks, HB. So Stu, the last question. Talking about your long, long duty title. When HB defined what is space superiority, talked a little bit about disaggregation, talked a little bit about proliferation. But as we start to disaggregate and proliferate, we cannot replenish the constellations that we have up there, we started talking about mil Ka and civil Ka, how do you in this transition period during the proliferation and the segregation, horizontally integrate across the legacy systems and the emerging systems to make sure that they’re going to be survivable in a fight?

Eberhardt: So the short answer is not an answer I think people want to hear, but I think it’s kind of danced around a lot, right? The air domain accounts for attrition. You know, you’re if you’re going to get into a fight, you’re accounting for losses. And they build that into their acquisition process. I think I think that’s a place to start. And that’s kind of a short answer. And I don’t mean it to be blunt. But I think if you pull the thread a little bit more on the on the rest of the question, I do believe that you’re going to be able to integrate in modern ground software systems. That’s not to say that eventually you don’t want that pushed out to the edge. And that you don’t want a mesh network that’s coordinating all the activities of these systems—you eventually want to make ground irrelevant, right? You should, ground should be the place where the HMI is usable by a young Guardian, who needs to be able to fly these systems, but really all the processing is happening in the mesh network amongst all the different systems. And that gives you that resiliency, and I think if you pull the thread, you know, I go back to some of the original teachings of Doug Loverro and General Pawlikowski on mission assurance and you start breaking down, are you are you really trying to get asset resiliency, or are you trying to get mission resiliency, because those are two different things. And so it depends on what you’re trying to do. Right. But solving that is probably going to drive down into, the horizontal area is going to be through the ground. And that’s today. But tomorrow, it could be, you know, that ground becomes somewhat irrelevant because you’ve networked this out to the system that’s proliferated and disaggregated.

Guetlein: Thanks to I do want to thank all of our panelists for attending today. This is a subject that we typically haven’t been allowed to talk much about. So I greatly appreciate you three braving to come up here and have that conversation. And also want to thank the AFA for teeing up this discussion. It’s a discussion that we’re going to have to have a lot more as we start to get after the fight. So AFA asked me to do quick, two quick announcements: First, instead of the speaker gifts this year, AFA has made donations to enable additional Airmen and Guardians to attend the poolside barbecue events. On behalf of you three, there’ll be some cadets that get to attend the event tonight. And our final session of the day is a keynote speaker with the entrepreneur and philanthropist Eric Schmidt, to discuss accelerating artificial intelligence at 1640 in the Gatlin Room. And have a great afternoon. Thank you.

Watch, Read: The Right Mix of Munitions for Tomorrow’s Wars

Watch, Read: The Right Mix of Munitions for Tomorrow’s Wars

Retired Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzreim, director of research at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, hosts John D. Corley, ordnance sciences core technical competencies lead, Air Force Research Laboratory and the Mitchell Institute’s dean, retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, and director of future concepts and capability assessments, retired Col. Mark Gunzinger. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

Retired Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzreim: I’m Larry Stutzreim, retired major general, Air Force, and I’m director of research at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. And today we’re going to talk about the munitions of tomorrow. We’ll be discussing the need for a cost-effective mix of precision-guided munitions to meet the work time demands of near-peer conflict. I have to echo the words of Air Combat Command commander, [Gen.] Mark Kelly. He said something from last September—that we’re not going to be a fifth-generation Air Force until its fifth-generation fighters have picked fifth-generation weapons and fifth-generation sensing.

Well, the same holds true for our bombers. And while we made a lot of headway and aircraft types like the F-35, and the B-21, we need to arm them for success.

On top of this, we lack a deep bench of stores for them to be successful when it comes to key weapons. We’ve also sized the munitions industrial complex to lack ability to surge production in time of need, especially in some of the more exquisite systems that we’ll need in large numbers when the shooting starts.

This all adds up to the conclusion that it’s time to have a concerted focus on munitions. So we will, so let me introduce our panel.

First, I’d like to welcome Lieutenant General Dave Deptula, also from the Air Force, retired. He’s our dean at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. I’ve worked for him for the last 20 years on and off and those of us who have worked for him refer to him as the avenging angel of airpower. And he is.

And we also have with us from Mitchell Institute my friend here, Mark “Gonzo” Gunzinger. He’s the bombastic Big Bopper of the bomber, flying the B-52. But later in his career, both in the military and as a civil servant, he became deeply involved in policy and planning. He was a deputy assistant [unintelligible] for force planning.

And then we have to my far left here we have Dr. John Corley. He’s lead for ordnance science at AFRL Munitions Directorate. And you might refer to him as Mr. Peabody and Sherman of things that go boom, there we go. Yeah, okay. And a piece of history that’s interesting about him is back in Desert Storm, he’s the man that brought GBU 28 across the finish line.

John D. Corley: One of many.

Stutzreim: That was the, for you youngsters, that was the bunker buster that brought Saddam Hussein to his knees. So we’ve got a distinguished panel. And of course, Gonzo Gunzinger has done recently a report about the need to have the right cost-effective mix of precision-guided munitions to meet the future demands of conflict. And Gonzo, I’m going to ask you to give a short summary of your findings of that report and then I’d like to offer general deputy and Dr. Corley, make some opening comment.

Retired Col. Mark Gunzinger: Hey, thanks for coming. I really appreciate you showing up on this critically important topic. I’ve been engaged in examinations requirements for whole probably 20 years in the Air Force, and then the office of the Secretary of Defense where I had oversight of that portfolio for Secretary [Robert] Gates. So in talking about future requirements, it’s always important to ground them in our strategy, our national defense strategy. Our strategy requires the services. First slide.

To size your forces to defeat a pear adversary’s invasion of an area that they seek to dominate, much as we’re seeing right now in Ukraine, now that’s going to require our forces to go on the offensive within hours—not wait weeks—to build up a force structure in theater before kicking off a campaign.

Of course, by then China or Russia will have achieved their objectives. And that means that aerospace power will be the predominant means to rapidly respond from inside and outside of theater to strike those thousands of targets in hundreds of hours. They’re needed to blunt an invasion.

Next slide. That said, it’s well known that our PGM inventory has been sized in the past for lesser regional conflicts. And DoD has chronically underfunded its weapons programs. And undersized PGM inventory means our forces may not have the weapons they need for a high-intensity conflict, especially one that is not short, sharp. Now this example shows our Air Force could quickly expand it’s in theater JASSMs and LRASMs on the residence in an operation to blunt invasion of Taiwan. But the real question is, if you looked at the chart, what kind of weapons would they have to use after day 12 or 13? Have that kind of campaign as using non-stealth, non-survivable weapons would decrease the effectiveness of our strikes. And going back to relying on direct attack weapons like we’ve used in Iraq or Syria and Afghanistan the past 20 years, we increase risk to our air forces operating in highly contested environments.

Next slide. So in addition to capacity, DoD’s current PGM-mix is unbalanced, which is why we’re hearing so much about the need for a different mix of weapons in the future. The preponderance of the Air Force’s PGMs are direct-attack weapons, which are best suited for strikes in permissive environments, like I said, plus a much smaller number of those longer range standoff weapons.

Now, that made sense in the past, where our aircraft were not threatened by advance IADs. Strikes with short-range, direct-attack weapons will not be the norm in a fight with China. And as the slide says, very long range weapons tend to be larger, which reduces the number that can be carried per sortie and more constantly, which reduces the number that our military can afford to buy.

So an unbalanced PGMs can reduce the number of targets that we can attack with acceptable risk. And that’s why we need a family of next generation mid-range weapons. So as you see on the chart, weapons that are sized to fit internally in our fifth and sixth generation aircraft to maximize their lethality and bring to the flight what no other service can and as the penetrating strike capacity, they’ll be decisive.

Next slide. So, our force planners must also consider the characteristics of future target sets as they develop weapons requirements. Now to cite Secretary Kendall, our target set in a war a China would be very different in the target set that China is preparing to attack—which is why simply replicating the kinds of weapons that China’s investment doesn’t make sense for us.

So I actually … adapted this chart for one use 12 years ago, to illustrate the need for a new penetrating bomber. [It] shows some of the advantages and disadvantages of penetrating and standoff weapons. Many of which are related to their attributes such as their warheads sizes, their flight times and so forth. China, as is Russia, as is North Korea and Iran, [are] using mobility hardening deeply buried facilities camouflage and other means to degrade our strike effectiveness. Our best long range standoff weapons simply can’t carry warheads that are large enough to penetrate very hard people vary targets and their longer flight times can reduce your effectiveness on mobile targets which is what you see on the slide.

The point is, it’s those kinds of assessments that are needed to define the right mix of weapons in our future inventory. Next slide. So also touch on survivability, which John I think you’re going to get into, but by that I mean the ability of individual weapons to survive to reach their aim points. Now this [is] based on simple math. It shows it as enemy defenses become more capable of tracking and interdicting our weapons, individual PGMs, the number of weapons and sorties needed to strike a given target set increases. It’s logical. The point is, simply throwing more sorties and legacy weapons at this problem isn’t feasible. Our Air Force, the [unintelligible] is about half the size of the force was on the ramp during Desert Storm. We simply can’t generate those kinds of sorties needed to overcome these weapons losses. A better choice is to acquire a new generation of PGMs that are low observable, can maneuver, fly at higher speeds and so forth, otherwise designed to survive. Next slide. For wrap up, it’s also important to seek the right balance between the range, the size, the survivability, and the cost of our future PGMs. Now as Secretary Kendall has said, cost effectiveness is a major consideration for our weapons investments, especially for weapons are going to be used in peer fights, where we may have to expend tens and tens of thousands of them. So as this chart shows, weapon unit costs tend to increase with their range and their [unintelligible]. And that’s why in our report, we recommended investing in a family of those mid-range weapons range between 50 to 250 nautical miles after release, that a unit costs somewhere in the range of $300,000 or maybe even less. And that’s what the little table on the chart shows: how many of those weapons can we buy for $5 billion, which is really pretty reasonable for a munitions program. And how many days a combat could they support if launch at a reasonable rate of 500 per day?

And finally, next slide. While DoD should certainly field some hypersonic weapons, their high cost could constrain how many you can afford to buy, especially if you’re looking at very expensive boost glide weapons on the order of the long range hypersonic weapon the Army is investing in, which could cost somewhere between $40 [million] and $50 million per shot or per target, if you will. So that’s back to you for questions. Again, thanks for coming.

Stutzreim: General Deptula, response?

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula: Well, greetings everyone. As you might expect, I fully support the work of Col. Gunzinger, more affectionately known as Gonzo. His paper, for those of you who haven’t read it, I’d certainly committed to you as it provides a foundation for I think the Air Force ought to be planning. After decades of deferred and canceled modernization programs, the Air Force’s lead over pure competitors is eroding. And we’re just simply undersized for the operational demands that we’re asked to meet. Unfortunately, during peacetime, one of the places that programmers go to find funds for other priorities are the munitions accounts. Now that’s because there are very few advocates for increasing munition inventories during peacetime therefore, when conflict does break out, we find ourselves facing munition shortages just when we need them in great or at least sufficient quantities.

You know as you get older you tend to tell more war stories, but I vividly recall during the opening months of Operation Enduring Freedom when I was the combined air operations … commander, [I] basically got a message saying hey, stopping using so many PGMs every day, you know, our stocks are getting low. And I’m thinking to myself, hey, we’ve only been doing this for three weeks. And we’re only hittng 70 to 80 DMPEs a day—desired mean points of impact. I mean, you’ve got to be kidding me. We’re starting to run low. This is Afghanistan. You know, these are 16th century tribesmen that we’re going against, not the Russians or the Chinese. The bottom line is, imagine a modern major regional conflict was on the order of 100,000 aim points in a matter of a few months. But as Gonzo alluded to in this day, and age, it’s not just about quantity. We’re faced with issues of manpower to build up weapons, survivability characteristics, range, adaptability to various targets, and many, many issues as those of you who are experts in munitions in here are aware of. So what the Air Force needs to do—it’s got to move out smartly to develop a new generation of mid-range standing PGMs that cost less than long range standoff weapons, to help develop a sufficient PGM inventory. Look, we’re not going to do 100,000 plus aim points with standoff. There’s not enough money in the Department of Defense to be able to do that. But we do need to be able to prepare to take care of that number of targets. So the next-generation stand-in PGMs, designed with low observability and other features to penetrate advanced integrated air defense systems, are kind of key to our ability to maintain that kind of deterrent effect that hopefully we’ll get back to being able to accomplish so we can prevent the kinds of things that we’re seeing in Europe today happening in other places around the world. Combining the range survivability and ability of penetrating aircraft to complete kill chains independently with next-generation standing PGMs will significantly increase the Air Force’s lethality and is something we got to move off of PowerPoint into production.

Stutzreim: Thanks, boss. Dr. Corley, comments.

Corley: Well, again, thanks for the opportunity to be here and to speak to AFA [and] to represent AFRL munitions directorate at Eglin Air Force Base, and Colonel Meeks as the director there. I’d say yes. And so I think, obviously, we need something between hypersonic weapons and standard in, you know, direct attack munitions, and something that’s affordable. And I’d say a subset of affordable mass would be affordable standoff. So I think we don’t have to necessarily go hypersonic to get in. To get in quick we can have a high speed cruise missile, that for Mike that’s much more affordable using much more mature technology in the near term, something like a high-mach turbine engine that could not only get us to the target at supersonic speeds but also generate power on the way to the target so that you could even increase this range.

So I think it’s not unimaginable that you could have a you know, excess of 1,000 miles’ range, you know, if you’re just at the warhead, and you’re trading trading fuel for warhead space.

Matter of fact, we’re working on a concept at AFRL called the affordable excuse me, it’s called the air launch response to strike missile. And it does just that, and it’s a feeder to a study that’s going on for the advanced long range affordable munition that’s in works and being studied right now.

But you can’t have a Gucci weapon just going after one targets that you got to have a multi-mission warhead, that for any of these cruise missiles … is pretty good at taking out not only your surface targets and your antennas and tails and those sorts of things, but also it was okay at bunkers and buildings and more recently maritime targets.

So we’re developing technologies that can go after all those.

A second approach to achieving this affordable mass would be I use the term organized chaos. And we’ve all talked about the ability to overwhelm and confuse the enemy by having network collaborative weapons. Thousands of them in the air, at least hundreds of them the air integrated. You know, this is a long term vision. I’m AFRL—I’m the long-term vision guy, right? May have Eurail on the long term vision guy, right?

So we are you can imagine having hundreds of these in the air network together. Making decisions on the fly target each other communicating back and forth with each other. But not only swarming, but having a loitering capability so we don’t want to just get to the target area and go right in we want to have some gas left for loitering as well.

And I’ll use the term and this was one that was coined at AFRL a few years back—heterogeneous integrated vehicle ensembles hives.

So it goes with a swarm theme so you have hives of that launch the swarms that are not only lethal packages, but they may have other payloads as well. You might have as supplies or payloads, you might have decoys, and some of them and some of them might have lethal and other types of payloads including you know, comm relay packages. You could even get—now bear with me, in know this is way-out thinking—you could even have sub-munitions that were powered as well, that you want from these cruise missiles to extend the range of those even further. So that would be swarms of swarms, to create confusion and give you some additional ability.

You mentioned the idea of capacity. And you know, we talked about the peace dividend, but I say there’s a precision weapons dividend that we incurred after Desert Storm where we got precision weapons [and] now we don’t need as many platforms. And guess what, we don’t have as many platforms now, so we don’t have as many hardpoints.

We cannot, you know, hang hundreds of these munitions just on conventional aircraft. So I think you’re gonna have to do something to take advantage of the broader launch platforms that we do have. Well, they may not even be launch platforms today. Think about transport aircraft. Think about palletized munitions. We’ve all seen the AFRL booth. Hopefully if you haven’t been, go by and see what they’re doing with Rapid Dragon for instance. I want to give a shout out to the Blue Horizon team. Do you have any the you are all here in the room today? Blue Horizon is a group that was started [unintelligible] at the Air University. And they are kind of a think tank within the Air Force of mid-grade officers that are going to be the leaders of tomorrow. And they have some concepts beyond Rapid Dragon. If you’re not familiar with it, it’s basically palletizing JASSM—a pretty expensive missile—but it was you know it was an F 117 replacement. So it was a good trade in terms of cost when at the time it was developed. But it’s probably not the exactly right missile for palletized ammunition to be affordable.

But think about concepts where you could have a less exquisite, more fragile missile that would be capable of being delivered in mass and at a lower cost and quantity and being able to produce you know, if you make them into economies of large quantities. You can realize economies of scale.

But back to Blue Horizon—they actually have some concepts besides pushing these out of transport aircraft with manned platforms. They’ve been talking about droning planes out of the Boneyard, and then using them to launch swarms of palletize munitions. And then you don’t have a return flight. You know, you just drone them into a target as well. So the vehicle itself becomes the target.

When we look at you think well how are we going to get to a … cruise missile that could be affordable enough to palletize we’ve actually got a concept. Again, it’s a blank-sheet concept … at AFRL called Cleaver, which is all about affordability, you know, making things that are survivable to the extent that they need to be but also more affordable.

And there was a compliant, so you can plug any payloads in there. You don’t have to crack them open, which is it doesn’t matter if you crack them open, you can crack them open and replace the chamber payloads and change them out. But, you know, update the warheads after their 20-year period. And essentially you come up with and they don’t have to have all of them have large 1,000-pound payloads in them.

They could essentially be flying fuel tanks where you have … reasonable sized payload that you’re trading … range and then have something left in the gas tank when you get there. And then the final part that I like to talk is about agile, competent, combat employment. I think we talked about direct attack munitions, but if you think about containerized munitions. Right now our direct attack munitions are shipped over and multiple containers into the field. And there it is a logistical nightmare to ship all of those random, these big shipping containers, unpack them, reassemble them. And now you got to do that if you want to highland hop, you’ve got to do that again, every day. No, you know, let’s just have containers and we can pull them out. Take unitary munitions are already built up, and all up rounds and hang them on the aircraft. And so we’re working concepts like that as well.

Gunzinger: Hey, John. Just real quick before we get to the questions. I didn’t want to imply that standoff weapons are bad, right? And right now, we need both. They both have their advantages and disadvantages. But that hole is missing those mid-range weapons. The other point is not about weapons costs. It really is cost per target, which is hard to show on ROI. That’s the metric.

Stutzreim: And we’ll talk about that a little bit. Dr. Corley, it’s great that you’re thinking logistically to develop this very important tool. Let me ask you, you know, we have been talking about how important it is to get this right mix PGMS for a long time. And everybody’s been talking what’s different today? Why is it so important to get this right now?

Corley: Two words: Russia, Ukraine. The threat a pure conflict today is real. Now, Desert Storm involved about 45,000 aim points. That was our last real major regional conflict. Afghanistan, Iraq because we’re small scale contingencies. They go back to Desert Storm, only about six percent of all the weapons employed were precision guided munitions. If you fast forward 25 years to Operation Inherent Resolve, operations against the Islamic State. Over 95 percent of the munitions used were PGMs. But since the numbers of weapons applied were very small, on average, between 10 and 15 strike sorties a day, with about one weapon drop per each, we could handle that.

But imagine a repeat of a major regional contingency on the order of a Desert Storm with a China or Russia. That’s what bumps up those aim points to on the order of 100,000 or more. So do we have that number of weapons on hand to deal with that magnitude of a threat? No, we don’t have the capacity to either to generate that number of weapons in a matter of weeks, so we need to get to stockpiling more munitions, with the capabilities that we desire.

Now, … you heard John already talk about some of the desired capabilities. Let me highlight what I believe we need to use as guidelines to shape this new standard in weapons inventory.

Five items. Broad-sense adaptability, locality, simplify logistics, reliability, and then reduce total cost. I’m not going to go into each one of them because you know, we could dig down into a level of detail and we just need not to do here, but let me just give you an example. What I mean by adaptability incorporating a universal arming, interface, platform language, resilient GPS INS in terminal secret capabilities, so we’re not tied to just one data-linked enhanced standoff. I mean, we’re looking at something minimum range of 50 miles, multi-mission capability, blast frag penetration, blast, low collateral damage, open system architecture, all up around and compatible with almost any bomb dropping platform in the inventory. So those are the kinds of things that I think we need to be aiming toward.

Stutzreim: A similar question, and I’ll go to Dr. Corley. And that is, in this regime Gonzo talks about in the direct attack, that shorter range piece, what attributes are you looking for, in addition to this, to get the right capability there and what operational factors drive those attributes? Can you prioritize those?

Corley: Well, I think, you know, as we spoke, there’s going to be, it has been said there’s been thousands of DMPEs and hundreds of hours that we’re going to have to go after. And do we have the stockpiles today even to do that, and every drop is going to have to count right. So I think reliability is job one. You have to make sure that every strike is going to survive the impact of the target. And the fuse is going to function right now.

You know, we know that we launched several weapons time sometimes to take out a single target we got to up our reliability of our weapon, so to make sure that we can trust that that one shot will do and that goes in really in line with what part of the reason we’ve launched multiple weapons is because our lethality tools are somewhat lacking.

So we you know, we don’t have enough confidence in the process that we use to characterize our weapons through static arena tests and then say, we let’s do three arena tests and then we’re good to go. But we’re not sure so we’re going to drop two weapons just in case and we’re just not going to have the luxury of doing that in future cons in future in future fights with a with a peer competitor.

I already mentioned … the idea about it being unitary and containerized that makes you know, the implication is that they would have transportability as another “ility” [to] be able to get them into the fight. Of course, smaller is always good for larger loadouts and we’re looking at you know, more lethal blast mechanisms.

People always talk about having the need to have larger warheads for more lethality. And I always say, as long as you’re in the right place at the right time, you can have a pretty small weapon and make and do the lethal effect, and so it’s all a cost, cost trade. And as I mentioned, we got to have weapons that we can build in mass and leverage those economies of scale because we’re producing a single type of weapon not multiple weapons for different targets sets, but single weapons that can do a lot of different things. And obviously, they all have to be have open system architecture, so they can be upgradable and drive towards—now this is something that you have to think about this a minute—but a PK greater than one. If your weapon can take out more than one target in process, then you you’ve won the calculus there. So those are some of the attributes that I would I would talk to

Stutzreim: Very good … We don’t have much time left. I’d like to ask General Deptula a cost-per-effect question, if we could … move on to that. I’ll come back to discussion on hypersonics with Dr. Corley and Gonzo if that’s okay. But General Deptula, you know, these budgets have a huge impact on our munitions, both in terms of capacity and capability. And how does this concept that we’ve been talking about for a while now virtual Institute, how does this concept cost per effect, enter the mix in that regard? How does it fit?

Deptula: Well, it’s no secret that as you describe that, we need to refocus on the effectiveness piece of the cost effective equation. Because for too many years now, we’ve only focused on cost. And so when we talk about cost per effect you need to consider in compare the cost and effects that each weapon can create, for the purpose of maximizing the value of desired operational outcomes. So it’s sort of like you want to start it in game at the target and then work backwards from there from there. For airstrikes, these comparisons should include not just the number and cost of the PGMs but the aircraft needed to execute the missions as well as the direct support assets, such as refueling tankers, electromagnetic jamming platforms, SAM suppression efforts, and including air crews and infrastructure like basing and maintenance support. Let me use as an example John’s already mentioned, and that’s the whole concept of agile combat and engagement because it’s got to be a huge driving factor and it’s great in terms of an example.

So in this particular case, think about it we’re looking at dispersed operations. So reducing manpower requirements becomes huge. As we will first in the first place, we’re not going to have the manpower to build up all these JDAMs as we’ve become used to in the past. We need all up rounds that you can pull out of a container and jam to an aircraft with no additional hands on time. So that’s what cause per effect in the context of munitions is all about one point. On cost effect. This is something that we were both in general depth to. The analyses that took place determine whether or not our nation needed a new penetrating bomber, and they took cost per effect into account as they did analyses, the various options standoff versus penetrating payloads and all that and well, the results are classified. We’re getting a new penetrating bomber and there is a very good reason for that.

Stutzreim: Pretty good. Let me skip to hypersonics real quick, and this is for both Gonzo and Dr. Corley. I’ll start with Gonzo, just talk about this mix. Where does it factor in in terms of the mix you’re talking about in your findings? Go ahead and just I know you absolutely talked about weapons survivability and hypersonic speeds can give us more survivability. As Secretary Kendall has said, there are a lot of ways of improving the survivability of our weapons so not just speeds. So our hypersonic weapons must be affordable enough to buy in quantity. And you take a look at boost glide weapons, I cited one—the Army’s—so $40 to $50 million a shot. Those two targets could buy an F 35 that we can reuse over and over and over again. Or they can buy a heck of a lot of those mid-range weapons like I talked about. But there are another class of hypersonic weapons and that’s scramjet air launched weapons, and I think [its] moderate range is 500 to 600 nautical miles. [There is] a good chance that scramjet-powered hypersonic weapons can be procured. It’d be much, much, much more affordable. I look forward to your thoughts on that.

Corley: Well, I think the role for hypersonic weapons, really, is that first of all deterrence and strategic messaging. But from a practical standpoint, it really … should it come to that they’re, a piece of rolling back the [uintelligible acronym] along with subsequent waves of crewed and uncrewed platforms to unlock that joint force. But nobody goes into the World Series with the strategy of, we’re going to win it with home runs. You know, so I think you’ve got to have that balanced approach. We know I think we were headed there, you know, okay, hypersonics is gonna solve everything. And I think now we’ve got to take a more balanced approach and I think you point that out in your in your paper very, very well. You know, I think hypersonics could be used to support swarms. So, you know, they can be very distracting. It can be very striking, distracting, you know, as you’re as they’re monitoring an incoming hypersonic weapon and you have a swarm come, you know, to really do the effect on target or vice versa. You have a swarm distract them while you’re engaging with the hypersonic target. So I think there’s some synergies there, that can be used together. So I think, you know, both hypersonic boost glide, and the cruise missiles have a have a role. But I think from a practical standpoint, really accelerating the ability of the cruise missiles to provide that shorter range, more affordable application of hypersonics is just as important that there’s all sorts of strategic targets that you need the long range for, but that would be what I would say about the mix.

Deptula: Yeah, let me jump in here just real quick and remind folks, that if the decision cycle takes longer than the time of flight of the missile would you use an hypersonic weapon for?

Corley: It really comes down to survivability that point, right? I mean, save a lot of money. We say time we you know, I think the argument to say that hypersonics for time critical targets just as you are implying, that does not solve the equation because there’s much longer portion to the equation, but it doesn’t you know, it is a means of enhancing survivability, but I think you can do that with supersonic weapons and maybe aren’t as expensive as well.

Gunzinger: Yeah, the key really is, I mentioned earlier to my briefing, understand your target set. And ours is not the same as China’s. So replicating what they’re doing by buying lots and lots hypersonic weapons and [unintelligible] doesn’t make sense except to a small crowd of policy, non-operational people and people trying to solidify their portion of the budget. There you go, and I’m your loan is cheaper. So let’s get rid of the surface launch stuff.

Corley: And one more three C’s. We’ve heard China, China, China, I’ll say capacity, capacity, capacity.

Stutzreim: Well said. We’re going to move to we got like four minutes left, but we’ve got to get to this discussion. I’m sure all three of you will have some things to say about this. But I’ll start with Gonzo.

You know, there’s this debate in town between the advocates for a penetrating strike and those advocating for these long range missiles that we’re talking about right now. So the outcome of this though, like General Deptula said, is really going to have a huge impact on how the money’s spent and what the portfolio looks like—and how effective it is against a threat. So talk to us you did a lot of work in this report about this debate.

Gunzinger: I’m a fan of some standoff weapons, no question about it. They have advantages that a direct attack these mid-range weapons can’t provide. But that said, very long range, service launch weapons that extremely expensive, logistics intensive huge footprints on the ground, problems closing the kill chain in a timely fashion, especially against targets that are mobile and that is our problem, China. That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I like the PrSM [precision strike missile system. Army should buy the PrSM—for Europe. That’s the right theater that’s the right target set us the right time of flight, etc.

Corley: That your goes back to what was said this morning. You know, putting previous-generation weapons on future generation aircraft just doesn’t make a lot of sense. I gave a talk several years ago, looking back 30 … This was 10 years ago, looking back 30 years and say, 30 years from now—do we want to have the same weapons that we had 30 years ago on our on our airplanes? But that’s what we’re kind of doing. It kind of was sobering. This morning when he was talking about Desert Storm and 30 years ago, and I’m like, oh, my goodness, I’m getting old. But you know, I think that’s the reality. We’re still fighting with yesterday’s weapons on tomorrow’s platforms.

Stutzreim: While you’ve got the mic, Dr. Corley, one last question for you. On the horizon, do we have technologies that will increase munitions lethality, but not inflate the cost? Do we see that on the horizon?

Corley: Well, we are always trying to drive that calculus down and put more capability … into a less expensive platform like a weapon that’s expendable, and dial back some of the margin that we haven’t that’s built into today’s weapons because we want to pull them out of a box after 20 years and make sure they work the first time when you hang on an aircraft. That’s what we asked if our weapons today and if you can make more affordable weapons. That are going to be used and replaced, you know, parts of them those expendable parts more readily. We can we can drive that cost down. And again, not making so many different weapons, but cooperating as an industry base to develop more and more of the same things and it leverages economies of scale.

Stutzreim: We love what you do at the munitions directorate. General Deptula, do you have any closing comments by chance?

Deptula: No, I just emphasize the importance of this area and it’s one of the places I’ll finish where I started. Munitions tend to get neglected during peacetime. But given the kinds of challenges that we’re facing, potential peer level fights in the future, we’ve got to modernize and increase our munitions accounts to be able to handle the size of the kinds of challenges that we’re sure to face

Stutzreim: Thank you, sir. And thank you Dr. Corley. Go ahead, one last closing comment.

Corley: I’ve got one last closing comment. I just want to because you can’t go the recession without talking about digital engineering. I think that is really going to be a key to us going faster and cheaper as well in the future. And we’re starting to see that in the weapons community as well.

Stutzreim: Gonzo?

Gunzinger: We can have the best fifth- and sixth-gen force in the world. We’re going to have the largest bomber force in the world we can have NGADs out our ears. If they don’t have weapons, that does not translate into combat power. And Gen. Deptula is exactly right. The time to buy those weapons is now.

Stutzreim: Okay, folks, this comes brings us to the conclusion. If you are interested in this discussion, you can download Gonzo’s paper at mitchellaerospacepower.org. But I’m asking you sign up and you’ll get [unintelligible] on all of Mitchell Institute’s announcements or events. We’ve got a podcast you can listen to every week for 30 or 40 minutes. That’s aerospace advantage. But go ahead and sign up. It doesn’t cost you think we’d like to have you on our on our team.