Kendall Sees Progress on CCA Drones as His Legacy; F-35 ‘Not Going Away’

Kendall Sees Progress on CCA Drones as His Legacy; F-35 ‘Not Going Away’

Dec. 19, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, poised to leave office next month, thinks his push to advance autonomous drones that accompany manned aircraft—the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program—will be the most revolutionary of the many programs he launched and organizational changes he’s made in the job.

At the same time, Kendall said Dec. 19, the F-35 fighter will be a crucial platform for many years to come and likely won’t be supplanted by CCA drones, which he said have a long way to go before they can match the human-piloted F-35’s performance.

Looking ahead, Kendall also said at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies that an analysis on the future of the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter is largely finished, but he wants the incoming administration led by President-elect Donald Trump to make the final choice and “own” decisions made about air superiority.

CCA

During his tenure, Kendall has launched his signature seven “Operational Imperatives” to modernize the force and sweeping “re-optimization for Great Power Competition.”

Asked by Air & Space Forces Magazine to identify his most impactful effort, though, Kendall said the CCA program.

“The thing that I accelerated by quite a bit that I think is going to be, ultimately, the most transformative is the CCAs. They’re going to change air warfare in some very fundamental ways,” Kendall said. Once Increment 1 of the program is in production—and Kendall said he still thinks “hundreds” will be in service before the end of the decade—the program will become “evolutionary,” he said, with many iterations.

“I think making that first step and hopefully continuing it to the next iterations is the thing that I think will have, ultimately, the most lasting impact,” he added.

Other initiatives like the Operational Imperatives were things that probably “would have happened” whether he’d been in the job or not, he said.

Within the CCA program the Air Force has sought to do several things under Kendall. It has awarded contracts to Anduril Industries and General Atomics to develop aircraft, with the goal of getting to “a meaningful inventory as quickly as possible.” The service has also worked to develop and mature the underlying autonomy software that will fly the CCAs as “wingmen” for the manned fighters.

“Then there’s the part about how to structure organizations, and how to integrate [CCAs] into organizations, what kind of basing to set up, maintenance concepts, things like that,” Kendall said. Organizations exist now to “do all of that. … We’re going to learn from that.”

It was vital, however, to make quick progress on that first first increment, Kendall said, so that the force can experiment with and learn from the new drones.

“At the end of the day, our operators are going to figure out how they want to integrate CCAs into the force,” he said. “The threat is moving in this direction too, and it’s a very close race right now. So we’ve got to figure this out. We’ve got to get it right.”

Kendall said his concerns that the Air Force culture would resist CCAs have been unfounded. Pilots have told him CCAs and autonomous platforms are going to “‘keep us alive. … Without these, we can’t do the things we need to do to be successful, operationally.'”

Asked about comments from Elon Musk—the tech billionaire who will co-lead the unofficial “Department of Government Efficiency” to advise President Donald Trump—deriding the F-35 and calling for the Pentagon to buy autonomous drones instead of manned fighters, Kendall advised caution.

“I have a lot of respect for Elon Musk as an engineer,” Kendall said. “He’s not a warfighter, and he needs to learn a little bit more about the business, I think, before he makes such grand announcements as he did.”

Removing humans from combat aircraft is still a long way off, Kendall said.

“I think it’s more like decades” before autonomous aircraft fully displace pilots, he said. “We’re not there. It’s going to be a little while before we get there.”

F-35

Despite the revolutionary nature of the CCA, the F-35 “isn’t going away,” Kendall observed.

“It’s a state-of-the-art system that’s continuously being upgraded,” he said. “There’s a reason so many countries are buying the F-35. It is dominant over fourth generation fighters, period, in a very, very serious way. It’s not even close. And there is no alternative to that in the near term.”

In the meantime, “we should continue to buy and operate” the F-35,” Kendall insisted.

A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II participating in NATO exercise Ramstein Flag 24 flies over the west coast of Greece, Oct. 4, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Emili Koonce

He did say, however, that the government needs better performance from Lockheed Martin, the F-35 prime contractor, because, “quite honestly, they’ve not been delivering what they’ve been promising, and they’re not doing that as fast as they could, by a wide margin.”

Kendall also noted that an agreement on Lots 18 and 19 of the F-35 has just been reached, and they will be more expensive for several reasons, including more complexity, capability, and inflation.

But the F-35 is “a world-class fighter,” Kendall said. The Air Force has stuck with its 20-year-old objective of acquiring 1,763 F-35s, and while “it’s impossible to predict” whether that figure will stand, “we’re going to be buying more for some period,” he added, noting that future decisions about NGAD and CCAs could change things down the road.

Kendall said that if the Air Force proceeds with the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, “it’s going to be several years before we can field them in quantity” and its cost will be “very expensive compared to the F-35.”

NGAD

The future of NGAD is very much up in the air after Kendall decided to punt decisions about it to his successor under Trump. Two weeks later, he stood by that call.

“I don’t want to make a decision that’s going to be disrupted and reversed, potentially, by the new team,” he said. “Whatever we decide to do about that mix of programs, the new team is going to want to be able to support it and take it forward for the next four years.” He felt it was “really smart, in this case, to delay a decision. The analysis is mostly done. The new team may want some additional analysis, but I want them to own this decision, and I don’t want us to start industry down a specific course and then have to abruptly reverse that few months from now.”

He put the NGAD under review this summer, delaying a development contract and putting the unnamed finalists under an extended Technical Maturation and Risk Reduction, or TMRR contract.  

There was an “affordability concern” with NGAD, which Kendall has at times characterized as potentially costing hundreds of millions of dollars per aircraft.

“It’s very expensive airplane that we could only afford in small quantities, and it has a relatively narrow mission profile, designed around certain operations and threats,” Kendall said.

Those cost concerns led to a broader reckoning, though, about the fundamental requirements for NGAD and its usefulness with changing technology. That analysis was led by a blue-ribbon panel of general and experts and is “generally done,” Kendall said. It looked at how the NGAD fighter would “operate in a mix that included uncrewed platforms” and in an Agile Combat Employment environment, in which the Air Force expects to operate from a multitude of austere locations to complicate an opponent’s targeting of air bases.

“I think the right thing to do to kick the final decision on this into the next administration,” he said, but “they’re going to need to move fast. The ‘25 budget is already on the Hill. It probably won’t be passed for a few more months. And the ‘26 budget is going to need to be submitted. So those are going to be the drivers on getting final decisions on what mix of capabilities is pursued.”

From Golf to Whiskey: Aviano Becomes the Latest Base to Swap Out HH-60 Models

From Golf to Whiskey: Aviano Becomes the Latest Base to Swap Out HH-60 Models

Dec. 19, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Airmen from the 31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base, Italy, flew their last mission in an HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter on Dec. 18, becoming the latest unit across the Air Force to transition to the new HH-60W Jolly Green II. 

U.S. Air Forces in Europe announced the final flight in a press release and noted that the wing’s first HH-60W, often called “Whiskey,” arrived Dec. 13. Aviano is the only USAF base in Europe or Africa to host combat search-and-rescue helicopters. 

“Today marks the end of an iconic chapter in our Air Force history with the final active-duty HH-60G flight,” 31st Fighter Wing deputy commander Col. Beau Diers said in a release. “Through its tour of duty, the HH-60G provided countless lifesaving rescue operations around the globe. As we transition to the HH-60W, we remember the G’s proud history while looking forward to an even brighter future with increased combat capabilities.” 

The Air Force has moved to retire most of its G models, often referred to as “Golf,” in recent years, with 37 aircraft heading to the Boneyard in fiscal 2024 and another 12 going in fiscal 2025. 

In addition to Aviano, Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico bid farewell to its last HH-60G this month, with a final retirement ceremony on Dec. 3. The 106th Rescue Wing at Gabreski Air National Guard Base in New York retired its first HH-60G in June and finished its conversion by October. And Kadena Air Base in Japan welcomed its first HH-60W in January and retired its last G model by August. 

An HH-60W Jolly Green II search and rescue helicopter assigned to the 106th Rescue Wing conducts a flyover during an HH-60W conversion ceremony at the 106th Rescue Wing based at Francis S. Gabreski Air National Guard Base, Westhampton Beach, N.Y., October 25, 2024. U.S. Air National Guard photo by Senior Airman Sarah McKernan

The Pave Hawk fleet is ripe for replacement after nearly 30 years of hard flying both in peacetime rescues and the Global War on Terror. Besides fresh metal, the brand-new Jolly Green II offers advanced avionics and communications, longer range, better self-defense systems, more room onboard, and more life-saving capabilities for pararescuemen. 

As the Air Force prepares for a potential fight with China, service officials fear short-ranged, slow moving rescue helicopters will be easy targets in a contested airspace over the vast Pacific Ocean. Air Force leaders moved to cap the fleet size for the W model at 75 aircraft a few years ago, down from their original plan of 113. 

Rescue experts disagreed, citing the rescue community’s history of performing in contested environments, the 60W’s impressive capabilities, and the lack of a viable alternative to do the job. In the 2024 budget, Congress added money for 10 extra combat rescue helicopters, boosting the HH-60W fleet to 85. Draft versions of the 2025 budget released by the House and Senate suggest they may add between two and five more. 

Space Force, Air Force Need More Money, Kendall Says

Space Force, Air Force Need More Money, Kendall Says

Dec. 19, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force needs more money to tackle its growing mission and support the joint force—but the Pentagon can’t raid the Air Force’s budget to pay that bill, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said Dec. 19. 

With one month left in his tenure before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Kendall repeatedly pressed for more resources for both services during an appearance at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. 

“We’ve made reasonable progress on getting the funding we need, but more is needed, I’ll be blunt about that,” Kendall said. 

Top Air Force and Space Force officials have increasingly warned in recent months that they cannot deliver capabilities vital to the nation’s security without a plus-up to their budgets. Republicans are poised to take Congress and the White House in 2025, raising the prospects for increased defense spending—and the open-ended question of how much the Air Force or Space Force will get out of any potential increase. 

“How much money is the new administration going to allocate to DOD, and how much of that is going to get allocated to the Air Force and Space Force? Those are unknowns right now,” Kendall said. “We’re trying to position the next administration to be able to address all those questions, make a sound decision, and then move it forward consistent with the constraints they have.” 

Back in March, Kendall and other leaders warned that the department’s 2025 budget request would be “unsatisfying” to many as they were limited by budget caps. By June, Kendall was warning that the lack of resources was his biggest concern for the 2026 budget. And in November, he said that absent an increase in funding, the Air Force would not be able to afford three of its signature modernization efforts all at once: the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter, the Next-Generation Aerial-refueling System tanker, and Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones. 

The Space Force is in no less dire straits—after explosive growth in its first few years of existence, the service saw its first ever cuts proposed in the 2025 budget. Some of that, Kendall said Dec. 19, was driven by the ebb and flow of developing new systems while devoting less resources to old ones. 

But Congress has proposed even bigger cuts to USSF on top of what the Pentagon requested. 

“What the Hill has done, as they work on [the ’25 budget] is, to fund their priorities, they have taken a lot of cuts out of the [research and development] accounts,” Kendall said. “Space Force is 65 percent, roughly, R&D. The Air Force is about 25 percent. So when they’ve gone and taken a few percent out of every R&D program, the Space Force suffers more from that.” 

Kendall made “space order of battle” the first of his seven Operational Imperatives, and much of the service’s R&D funding is to develop new proliferated constellations of satellites, as well as new missions shifting to space like targeting and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. On top of that, Space Force leaders have said the service needs to invest in counter-space capabilities—weapons that can hold adversaries’ space capabilities at risk should they be used to target U.S. forces. 

“The new administration will have to take a look at this,” Kendall said. “We’re leaving behind a draft budget for them to start with, which I think is in pretty good shape. And then they’ll have to figure out how much are they going to put in the defense and how are we going to allocate it? There’s no question in my mind that one of our highest priorities should be increasing Space Force funding and accelerating the fielding of some of those capabilities.” 

But while Kendall is confident that “there’s almost a consensus within the DOD that we’re going to need to ramp up funding for space,” he also used one of his final public appearances as secretary to argue the Air Force shouldn’t be the bill-payer. 

“The Air Force can’t pay for the Space Force. So within the Department of the Air Force, I can’t solve the Space Force problem by moving tens of millions of dollars over into the Space Force,” Kendall said. “The rest of the joint force and DOD as a whole—people appreciate that and understand it. I have made some moves there in the margins, but not dramatic ones. That needs to be considered in the context of the overall DOD budget.” 

Indeed, the Air Force faces a funding crunch of its own. As the service in charge of two legs of the nuclear triad, its budget includes the new B-21 bomber and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile. Sentinel in particular is over-budget and behind schedule, with a price tag now projected at around $140 billion. 

(ILLUSTRATION) An artist’s concept of the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM launched at twilight. Northrop Grumman

No matter the cost, Kendall said funding for nuclear modernization is a “given.” But as those programs grow, they threaten to siphon money away from all the other Air Force priorities. 

“We have to have a secure, reliable, and effective nuclear deterrent,” Kendall said. “We also have to have an effective conventional force for our most pacing challenges. We have to do both.” 

While some advocates have called for a dedicated separate fund for Sentinel and the nuclear enterprise, Kendall said he is “neutral” on the idea. At the end of the day, he argued, it all comes down to the size of the budget. 

“There are only two ways to do all that we need to do: you add money to the DOD budget and you put to the relevant services, or you take it away from somebody else within the DOD budget,” he said. “Those are the only choices, and we’re going to have to figure out which one of those to do.” 

Funds for nuclear modernization will be there, he added, but any cuts elsewhere raise existential concerns. 

“There are choices to be made about investments in conventional capability. But if we don’t act and fund the Space Force and the Air Force, it’s only a matter of time until China achieves superiority,” he warned. 

Could This Program at Cannon Be a Model for Health Care at Remote Air Force Bases?

Could This Program at Cannon Be a Model for Health Care at Remote Air Force Bases?

Dec. 18, 2024 | By David Roza

An effort at Cannon Air Force Base, N.M., to bring in medical specialists from afar seems to be paying off, with families driving less and requesting fewer travel vouchers to access care. Three other Air Force bases around the country have expressed interest in the program, suggesting that it could serve as a template in remote areas.

Launched in October 2023, the Circuit Rider program is aimed at addressing the lack of access to specialty care to Cannon, a challenge throughout rural New Mexico.

“We don’t have enough doctors anywhere in New Mexico, but especially in rural New Mexico,” one doctor told New Mexico in Depth in 2023.

A medical support summit held at Cannon last year found shortfalls in specialties such as behavioral health, applied behavior analysis, neurology, and endocrinology, with families traveling an average of 147 miles for consultations and treatment.

Circuit Rider sought to mitigate the problem by bringing in military health care providers from out of state. As long as they have an unrestricted active state medical license, those military providers are not bound by the same state licensure restrictions as their civilian colleagues.

Fourteen months later, 160 patients and about 130 families have used the program for help with endocrinology, developmental pediatrics, psychiatric care for children and adolescents, and other specialties, according to a Dec. 11 press release.

Circuit Rider has saved $200,000 in travel voucher expenditures and 1,400 man-hours (about 58 days) that would have otherwise been spent traveling for care. The program is also making it easier for military family members with special needs to move to Cannon. The release said the Exceptional Family Member Program denial rate dropped from 38 percent in 2023 to 10 percent this year.

Col. Danielle Cermak, commander of the 27th Special Operations Medical Group, called the program “a huge win.”

“The program has allowed us to increase accessibility to specialty providers, continue to support the needs of our patients and maximize the readiness required for Cannon’s high-tempo mission,” Cermak said in the press release.

After a successful first year, the program is set to expand with more specialty services in 2025. That could include rheumatology and tele-audiology. Lt. Col. Rene Hinton, chief of medical staff at the 27th SOMDG, said a partnership with the Colorado Military Health System may yield weekly virtual neurology appointments and dermatology consultations, while the Naval Medical Center of San Diego could provide telehealth options for child psychology.

Cannon isn’t alone in facing challenges. Access to medical care is a problem throughout the military due to staff shortages, limited providers at small military treatment facilities, and a lack of providers willing to accept TRICARE, according to a 2023 Defense Department Inspector General report.

Budget cuts mean some contracts for base medical personnel go unrenewed, leaving many locations in the continental U.S. short of providers, the report found.

Other bases are interested in Cannon’s success: a spokesperson for the Defense Health Agency, which coordinates Circuit Rider, told Air & Space Forces Magazine that representatives from three bases have discussed the program with Cannon, though it remains to be seen what will come out of those discussions. DHA declined to identify the exact bases.

Defense Health Agency connects military treatment facilities around the world: it helped Cannon work with Army and Air Force dermatology experts in Colorado and rheumatology providers all the way from the 88th Medical Group at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. Earlier providers came from as far as Alaska.

“We are continuing to strengthen partnerships to provide even more care options,” Hinton said in the release.

Pentagon Says Chinese Air Force Nipping at USAF’s Heels, but Not Yet a Match

Pentagon Says Chinese Air Force Nipping at USAF’s Heels, but Not Yet a Match

Dec. 18, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

China’s air force is very good and improving quickly, but has not yet matched the air combat capabilities of the U.S. Air Force, according to the Pentagon’s annual report on Chinese military power and officials who helped prepare it.

The 2024 edition of the report particularly emphasized how the People’s Liberation Army Air Force has expanded the capabilities of its unmanned aerial systems, saying they are now comparable to USAF systems. It also noted strides the Chinese have made with air-to-air missiles, electronic warfare, bombers, and fifth-generation fighters.

The PLAAF “with respect to its modernization and indigenization of its unmanned aerial systems, is quickly approaching U.S. standards,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters in a background briefing ahead of the report’s release.

The report specifically notes “the routine appearance of increasingly sophisticated systems across theater and echelon levels.” Within the last three years, the Chinese have shown off the Xianglong jet-powered UAS, the supersonic WZ-8 drone, and a redesigned version of the GJ-11 stealth unmanned combat air vehicle at airshows.

“Advanced small UASs are increasingly appearing in military and civilian applications, with PRC industry remaining a key exporter of UASs and components of all sizes,” the Pentagon report states. The PRC is “maturing and … signaling its efforts in next-generation capabilities,” with a greater airshow presence, displaying counterparts to most advanced western designs, including stealth flying wing aircraft.

These new concepts may include a counterpart to the Air Force’s nascent Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, as “PRC developers are demonstrating an interest in additional growth beyond [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] and [electronic warfare] into air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, with substantial development efforts to produce swarming capability for operational applications.”

On the manned side, the Pentagon assessed that China is swiftly building up and improving its fleet of J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighters. The official said China is increasing production capacity with a new facility. Various think tanks have pegged the J-20 fleet at nearing 200 airframes—versus 184 F-22s in the U.S. Air Force inventory—and China is said to be relying increasingly on an indigenous engine for the fighter, after years of having to import powerplants from Russia.

“They’ve begun to switch to domestically produced engines, although some Russian engines may remain in use,” the official said, adding that “the PLA Air Force is also still working on upgrading the J-20.”

He declined to provide any details about China’s other fifth-generation fighter, the twin-engined J-35, which closely resembles the U.S. single-engine F-35 and is expected to equip China’s aircraft carriers.

The Pentagon report notes that the PLAAF has embarked on “a set of major institutional reforms aimed at creating a modern, professional fighting force,” training under what the service called “actual combat conditions,” understood to mean readiness to engage and win against “highly capable military competitors.”

As part of this training, pilots now have the freedom to create their own flight plans and engage in intercepts that are “not completely pre-scripted,” the report states.

The report also noted the PLAAF has “increased its use of confrontation training,” a likely reference to the growing number of bluff-charge attacks at Taiwan. The PLAAF also is increasing the number of joint exercises it conducts with other regional air forces, including those of Pakistan, Russia and Thailand.

Together with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), China fields the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region and the third largest in the world, with over 3,150 total crewed aircraft—not including trainers or drones. More than 2,400 of those tails are combat aircraft, and the majority of those—around 1,300—are now fourth-generation. Nearly all fighters will be fourth generation or better “in the next several years,” the official said.

According to China’s 2019 defense white paper, its forces are shifting from territorial air defense to “offensive and defensive operations,” which the Pentagon construes as power-projection capabilities far afield from the mainland.

The PLAAF is “rapidly approaching technology typical of U.S. standards,” the Pentagon said, with “aviation, airborne, air defense, radar, electronic countermeasure, and communications forces organized into five Theater Command Air Forces.”

Among the aircraft on which the Pentagon provided specific comments:

  • Shenyang J-16: a “fourth-plus-generation“ fighter, based originally on Russia’s Su-27, which will be able to carry the “very long range air-to-air missile, the PL-17,” the appearance of which may have driven the Air Force to accelerate the retirements of aircraft like the E-8 JSTARS and E-3 AWACS. In 2023, more than 225 J-16s were in PLAAF service, and more are coming.
  • Chengdu J-20: Upgrades in the works include increasing the J-20’s internal missile loadout to preserve its stealth while increasing its magazine, “installing thrust-vectoring engine nozzles, and adding super cruise capability by installing higher-thrust indigenous WS-15 engines.”
  • Shenyang J-35/FC-31/J-31: The Pentagon offered little commentary on this stealthy F-35 lookalike, except to say that it will likely equip Chinese aircraft carriers and will be offered for export.
  • Xi’an H-6N: The report notes that the PLAAF has “operationally fielded the H-6N bomber,” a highly upgraded version of the old Russian Tu-16 “Badger.” The H-6N has air-to-air refueling capability, longer range than previous variants, and can externally carry a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile with a maneuvering re-entry vehicle, representing the air leg of China’s nuclear triad.
  • Xi’an H-20: “The PRC probably is developing a strategic stealth bomber, according to PRC state media,” the report states, although in previous editions, the Pentagon has more definitively noted work on a Chinese flying wing bomber potentially modeled on the Air Force B-2 Spirit.  The new bomber will be subsonic and have “a nuclear mission in addition to filling conventional roles,” much like the American B-2 and B-21. Chinese media have released images of a flying-wing-type aircraft under a tarp, highly reminiscent of Northrop Grumman’s advertising for its new B-21bomber before that aircraft was publicly revealed two years ago. Lifting language from previous editions, the Pentagon acknowledged that work started on the H-20 in 2016, and “it may take more than a decade to develop this type of advanced bomber.” However, that suggests the aircraft could appear as soon as 2026 or 2027.
  • Shaanxi Y-9: The Y-9, rolled out in 2019, is billed as a jamming/electronic warfare aircraft, able to “disrupt an adversary’s battlespace awareness at long ranges.”
  • Xi’an Y-20: China’s lookalike to the American C-17 transport is being developed into an aerial tanker.
Big To-Do List in 2025 for Space Force

Big To-Do List in 2025 for Space Force

Dec. 18, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force celebrates its fifth birthday Dec 20, but Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman is already looking ahead to Year 6. 

Saltzman listed seven major initiatives for 2025 in an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Dec. 17, beginning with a campaign for more money.

It’s a “large list for a small service,” Saltzman said. “But we’re used to that by now. This is work that has to get done. It’s critical to the future of the joint force and to the Space Force, critical to the lethality of the joint force and critical to the safety and security of our nation today.” 

Bigger Budget 

The Space Force grew at a steady, rapid pace in the past five years to reach today’s force of 15,000 military and civilian personnel and an overall budget of about $29 billion. 

Yet USSF faces its first spending cuts in the proposed fiscal 2025 budget and advocates are increasingly calling for more resources. The Space Force is taking on more responsibilities, but not getting the funds or people to do it. 

Saltzman is taking the lead on fighting for more. “Personally, I intend to employ an advocacy blitz to increase our budget to field timely counter-space capabilities,” Saltzman said. “And I’m going to operationalize the congressionally directed role that I have as the Department of Defense’s force design architect for space.”  

Much will depend on who takes over as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of the Air Force. With Republicans poised to control Congress and the White House in 2025, prospects for increased defense spending are rising. But whether the Space Force will get much of a share of any increase is another question.  

“I’m not just asking for a top line that goes up because I think all budgets should go up,” he said. “I’m asking for it because there’s new mission associated with this counter-space capability that we need to invest in, and that’s going to naturally [require] an increase in resources.” 

Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein testified before the Senate Armed Services readiness subcommittee in May. U.S. Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich
Part-Time Guardians 

When Congress passed the Space Force Personnel Management Act last year, it allowed the Space Force to manage part-time and full-time Guardians in a single component, without a conventional Guard or Reserve. But the law gave USSF four years to make the transition and iron out all the technical details. 

Saltzman wants to move faster. “We’re going to finish the implementation of the Space Force Personnel Management Act,” he declared. Part-time Guardians will join the force by the end of 2025—two years ahead of schedule. 

The first part-timers will likely transfer from the Air Force Reserve, with members of the Air National Guard transitioning later; the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, passed earlier this month, allows such transfers, and the bill now awaits the president’s signature.

On the other hand, President Trump promised last summer to establish a Space National Guard. That would require new legislation and reversing existing legislation. It is possible that moving fast now can forestall that possibility later.

Space Futures Command 

Saltzman pledged to stand up Space Futures Command in 2025 and to “publish an objective force for 2025.” The Space Force announced plans for Space Futures, its fourth Field Command, last February to refine the vision and define the needs for the future of the Space Force. It will complement Space Systems Command, which will remain the primary acquisition arm for the force.

Space Futures will also be the a counterpart to the Air Force’s new Integrated Capabilities Command, responsible for setting requirements and unifying and coordinating the force-planning process. 

The Air Force stood up a provisional ICC in September but Space Futures has been slower to stand up. Saltzman said he wants the command up and running early in 2025 so they can start work on a study to define the Objective Force by summer; the study will lay out “all the things the service needs to invest in, in order to make sure we have capabilities on the other side,” he said. 

Component Commands 

The Space Force established its first component inside a combatant command in late 2022 with U.S. Space Forces Indo-Pacific. Since then, the service has created Space Forces Europe-Africa, Space Forces Central, and Space Forces-Space, components to U.S. European and Africa Commands, Central Command, and Space Command. 

Lt. Gen. Douglas Scheiss, commander of U.S. Space Forces – Space, during the 2024 Spacepower Conference in December. U.S. Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich

Space Force components for six remaining combatants will be established in 2025, Saltzman said, promising to “finish” the job at U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Strategic Command, U.S. Southern Command, U.S. Cyber Command, U.S. Special Operations Command, and U.S. Transportation Command. 

Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture 

The Space Development Agency has purchased more than 450 satellites for its low-Earth orbit Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. But so far, just 27 of those spacecraft have launched.

In 2025, “we’re going to accelerate Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture to operations,” Saltzman said. Having tested and vetted the system with its “Tranche” demonstrations, the Space Force will launch the first “Tranch 1” satellites as soon as April.

Mission Control 

With more and more satellites in orbit, aging ground systems like the Satellite Control Network will struggle to keep up. In 2025, “we have plans to deploy the next generation of mission control capabilities to relieve stress on the satellite control network,” Saltzman said. 

Those capabilities include the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource, a program run by the secretive Space Rapid Capabilities Office. Director Kelly Hammett told reporters at last week’s Spacepower Conference that the new antennae will be fielded in the Indo-Pacific region in 2025. 

Launch Tempo 

The number of space launches will continue to rocket upward in 2025. Vandenberg Space Force Base in California and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida are straining to meet increased demand, and leaders say billions in new investment is needed to expand capacity. Saltzman wants to see results in 2025. 

“We’re going to further expand the launch support tempo and its capacity in the infrastructure,” he said. 

space force launch
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., in September. The launch marked the first time a Space Force Guardian was launched into space. (U.S. Space Force photo by Senior Airman Spencer Contreras)
Photos: Operation Christmas Drop Delivers 77,300 Pounds of Aid, Ends with Elephant Walk

Photos: Operation Christmas Drop Delivers 77,300 Pounds of Aid, Ends with Elephant Walk

Dec. 18, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Seven C-130 airlifters from five countries lined up for an “elephant walk” on Guam and then flew alongside each other Dec. 14 to cap off Operation Christmas Drop. 

Every year, USAF and its allies drop thousands of pounds of food, clothes, medical supplies, fishing gear, and toys on remote Pacific island countries such as Micronesia and Palau, where locals often have trouble obtaining necessities. It is the Department of Defense’s longest running humanitarian airlift mission, and 2024 marked its 73rd year. 

The 374th Airlift Wing at Yokota Air Base, Japan, led the operation. This year, they were joined by aircraft and personnel from the Royal Canadian Air Force, Royal Australian Air Force, Republic of Korea Air Force, and Japan Air Self-Defense Force. 

Members of the Philippine Air Force also helped to rig bundles for drops. 

Combined, more than 300 personnel helped drop approximately 77,300 pounds of supplies on more than 58 drop sites over the course of 224 flight hours. The operation ran from Dec. 8-14. 

And as has become tradition in the past few years, the participants celebrated the end of the exercise by gathering their C-130s on the runway at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, for a multinational elephant walk. In 2023, six aircraft from four countries participated. In 2022, seven aircraft from five nations were included. 

After that, the crews flew a mission together over the Pacific, practicing airdrops and coordination—highlighting the operational benefits of Operation Christmas Drop. 

“Building relationships is critical, especially considering the strategic focus on this part of the world,” Maj. Jon Balfe, commander of the OCD 24 Canadian Detachment, said in a release. “You can’t wait until a crisis happens to figure out how to work together. Flying, planning, and learning from each other now ensures we’re ready when it matters.” 

New Pentagon Report: China Expanding Military Reach to Project Power Around the Globe

New Pentagon Report: China Expanding Military Reach to Project Power Around the Globe

Dec. 18, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The People’s Republic of China has improved its ability to project power globally despite corruption purges and a shrinking economy, the Pentagon’s annual report card on the Chinese military says.

That includes a growing nuclear arsenal that added 100 new warheads in the last year.

Chinese leaders “perceive themselves as a global power with global security interests that requires military capabilities commensurate with meeting that challenge,” a senior defense official told reporters ahead of the Dec. 18 release of the report.

The Pentagon annual China Military Power Report, mandated by Congress, chronicles a dramatic rise in the People’s Liberation Army’s nuclear, space, missile, and aviation capabilities in both number and quality in recent years.

The report notes that China wants to develop the capability to operate militarily beyond the so-called First Island Chain, which stretches from Japan to the Philippines and includes the self-governing island of Taiwan, which Beijing views as a rebel province.

“[People’s Republic of China] leaders view the PLA’s growing global presence as an essential part of the PRC’s international activities to create an international environment conducive to the PRC’s national rejuvenation,” the report states.

Despite the sacking of the defense minister on corruption charges and a lagging Chinese economy, experts inside the Pentagon and outside the government say China’s leader Xi Jinping is steadfast in his commitment to modernizing its military.

“You could imagine that in a time of slowing growth that China would pare back its ambitions,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow and China expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “But clearly, the report is saying that it’s full steam ahead. And I think that is an important recognition.”

China is building up on multiple fronts.

Nuclear

According to the report, China now has more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024—100 more than last year and 200 more than the year before that. The Pentagon projects that China will field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and that the force will continue to grow further through 2035, in line with last year’s projections.

“The PLA continues its rapid nuclear build-up,” the senior defense official said. “We’ve got a force that’s not only growing in terms of those numbers of operationally deployed warheads, but also in a sort of diversity and sophistication. When you look at what they’re trying to build here, it’s a diversified nuclear force that would be comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles all the way up to ICBMs with different options at basically every rung on the escalation ladder.”

Space

In space, China is seeking to nullify the U.S. advantage in on-orbit assets with a range of space weapons, known in U.S. parlance as counterspace capabilities.

China “has continued developing counterspace capabilities that can contest or deny other nations access to and operations in the space domain. These include direct ascent, anti-satellite missiles, co-orbital satellites, electronic warfare, and directed energy systems,” the report assesses.

Aircraft

China’s air force is also striving to develop its long-range capabilities, according to the Pentagon report. In the past year, it conducted joint bomber drills with Russia off the coast of Alaska, as China seeks to expand its overseas operating locations.

“PLA concepts and capabilities focus on projecting power far from China’s shores,” the report states. “The [Navy]’s evolving focus from ‘offshore defense’ to ‘open seas protection’ and the [Air Force]’s interest in becoming a ‘strategic’ air force reflect the PLA’s interest in conducting operations beyond the PRC and its immediate periphery.”

In terms of numbers, China’s PLA Air Force and PLA Navy together “constitute the largest aviation forces in the region and the third largest in the world, with over 3,150 total aircraft,” the report states. China has around 2,400 combat aircraft, such as fighters, bombers, and attack planes—including the nuclear-capable, air-refuelable H-6 bomber, giving China an air leg for its nuclear triad.

The PLA Air Force’s goal is “to serve as a comprehensive strategic air force capable of long-range airpower projection,” according to the report.

Challenges

Still, China faces some internal challenges. More than a dozen high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives were removed from their posts in the last half of 2023 because of allegations they were involved in corruption. Those developments, the report noted, “may have disrupted the PLA’s progress toward stated 2027 modernization goals.”

Watchdog Finds Issues with Program Management of Nuclear Warheads

Watchdog Finds Issues with Program Management of Nuclear Warheads

Dec. 17, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The National Nuclear Security Administration—responsible for developing and managing America’s nuclear warheads—needs better program management to ensure its new nuclear weapons remain on schedule, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.

In particular, the GAO report authors said the NNSA needs to set priorities and steer resources to the most critical technologies.

Delays are creeping into new nuclear weapons programs because of an insufficient number of program overseers, late materials, and inconsistent policies and milestones from one program to another, auditors wrote.

The NNSA is developing the actual nuclear warheads that will be carried by new delivery systems like the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile and the Long-Range Stand-Off cruise missile. The delivery systems are being developed by the Air Force and the Pentagon.

Synchronizing the schedules for the new nuclear warheads with the new delivery systems is the challenge, and GAO authors wrote that there is generally good coordination between the Pentagon and the NNSA in getting that right.

Yet there are still some delays that can be chalked up to an inconsistent approach to developing these systems, the GAO report notes. On top of that, the NNSA only has a handful of program managers keeping an eye on dozens of companies, each with highly disparate functions under the vast nuclear weapon enterprise.

“GAO recommends that NNSA document, in a formal and comprehensive manner, the process its nuclear weapon acquisition programs must follow to identify which technologies are critical technologies,” the report states. The NNSA agreed with that recommendation.

The agency also lacks a formal process for its programs to identify “technologies critical to meeting a system’s operational requirements that are new or novel or are used in a new or novel way,” the GAO noted. Without one, it risks wasting money or time.

The GAO acknowledged that NNSA has established “numerous requirements that its programs must follow regarding, among other things, the establishment of cost and schedule baselines and the assessment of technology readiness,” but said these are inconsistent.

That’s important because “according to NNSA officials, it is difficult to estimate how long it will take to mature technologies to a manufacturing-ready state. As a result, NNSA’s programs have had difficulty reaching technology readiness milestones.”

That was borne out by a review of programs, during which GAO found that a majority had not reached the minimum required readiness levels for critical tech by the start of the development phase—despite the fact that NNSA guidelines stating that a program must reach certain Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) before moving to a new phase. GAO blamed a lack of documentation and enforcement of guidelines.

The GAO did note that in 2019, the NNSA established an office “to perform early stage research and development activities to advance technologies to a higher level of readiness before passing them on to nuclear weapon acquisition programs for further development.”

The GAO also looked at several warhead programs in particular and provided status reports.

W80-4

The W80-4 warhead life extension program—which will equip the LRSO missile—is now expected to be completed in September 2033, one year behind its schedule baseline. The GAO noted that the program cost of $13 billion hasn’t changed since it was last evaluated in March 2023, though it will be $400 million more than the previous baseline set in 2019. 

Final design review for the warhead is planned for November 2025, and the first production unit should be completed in September 2027. Full-scale production starts in January 2030. The Air Force is buying just under 1,100 LRSO missiles. The GAO found “no significant challenges” with the LRSO schedule, but a vendor that makes the explosive material that detonates the warhead is planning to end production permanently, and the NNSA is working with various agencies “to address” this issue.

W88-Alt 370

The W88-Alt 370 program, which modifies the W88 warhead used on sea-launched ballistic missiles—but doesn’t extend their service lives—has been in production since 2022 and will be completed in September 2026. The $2.9 billion program is running $300 million over its expected cost “due to an issue with a procured part” in 2019. The GAO said $172 million more is likely needed for some “technology maturation.”

B61-12

The B61-12 life extension program, which is for a tactical nuclear weapon that will equip the F-35 and other platforms, is also scheduled to close out in 2026, a year later than planned, and at a cost of $8.4 billion versus the baseline $8 billion. Its cost increase was also chalked up to an issue with a procured part in 2019. 

The Air Force developed a new tailkit for the weapon to make it more accurate, and it has new safety and security gear.  “In October 2023, DOD announced plans to build an additional B61 variant, the B61-13, using the B61-12 production line,” GAO said, and NNSA “will produce fewer B61-12 bombs than originally planned to accommodate the B61-13 program.” Some money for the B61-12 will be used to “pay for the costs associated with the manufacture of nonnuclear components used for the B61-13 program.”

W87-1

The W87-1 Modification Program, which will replace the W78 warhead and be deployed on the LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM, includes a new-manufacture nuclear “pit” and “insensitive explosives” for triggering. Production engineering starts in September 2025; the final design review is slated for December 2027 and the first production unit is expected sometime between December 2030 and two years later. Full-scale production starts in 2033.

The NNSA estimates the program cost at between $15.2 and 16.3 billion, though NNSA told the GAO the cost could go up to $17.1 billion using “more conservative assumptions” with an 80 percent confidence level.

However, it’s not yet clear what the roughly $40 billion cost and schedule overruns on the overall Sentinel program will have on the warhead’s schedule yet. There is an ongoing review of the Mk21A rentry vehicle program, which will carry the warhead from the missile to the target. Air Force officials told the GAO that “they expect both Air Force programs to announce delays in the availability of hardware and flight testing dates that could result in delays of up to a year or longer for flight tests.”

W93

The W93 program is a new nuclear warhead most likely to be deployed first on new Navy sea-launched ballistic missiles, but intended for joint Air Force/Navy use in the long term. Development engineering starts in October 2026; production starts in the “mid-2030s.” In April 2024, the NNSA estimated the program will cost between $20.9 billion and $24.8 billion. The program will produce new nuclear pits.

The GAO report notes that “the program faces several challenges with manufacturing certain components. The program is also reliant on multiple NNSA production programs to reinstate capabilities to produce new plutonium pits, fabricate new secondaries, and improve lithium and high explosives sourcing and production.”