‘Wildly Successful’ Skyborg Will Become Program of Record but Won’t Stop Developing S&T

Aug. 16, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

DAYTON, Ohio—Skyborg, the Air Force’s effort to develop an artificial intelligence-enabled system to control unmanned aircraft, is ready to “graduate” and contribute to key programs such as the Next Generation Air Dominance family of systems, a top program executive officer said.

But while the so-called Vanguard effort is seemingly on the verge of becoming a program of record, it won’t stop developing, experimenting, and testing new technologies.

For months, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has described his vision of four to five low-cost, uncrewed aircraft flying alongside the crewed fighter that will be the centerpiece of NGAD—or other fighters such as the F-35—to create a formation. Lately, Air Force officials have started referring to those uncrewed aircraft as collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA.

Kendall and other leaders have pushed an ambitious pace to deploy these drones, perhaps by the middle of the 2020s. Such a timeline is a credit to the success of Skyborg, Brig. Gen. Dale R. White, program executive officer for the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s fighters and advanced aircraft directorate, told reporters during the Life Cycle Industry Days conference.

“We used Skyborg as the foundation, the stepping-off point, with all of the [science and technology] work that we did, which feeds into it, and we’re continuing to work with industry and with the enterprise, and we’ll continue to refine that approach,” White said, adding that because of Skyborg, the CCA effort is not “starting from zero.”

Since being identified as a priority effort in 2020, Skyborg has already demonstrated capabilities that CCAs will likely need.

In December 2020, a drone included in the Skyborg program flew alongside an Air Force F-22 and Marine Corps F-35, allowing the two crewed platforms to communicate using otherwise incompatible datalinks. The Autonomous Core System, the “brain” of Skyborg, has successfully flown multiple aircraft made by different contractors. Multiple drones operated by the ACS have flown together, demonstrating a drone “teaming” capability. And there have been other flight tests as well, the details of which have not been publicly announced.

“I think the most important thing is our ability to show that the Autonomous Core System was effective and it can be moved from aircraft to aircraft,” White said. “And so that demonstration we had in [2021] was really to focus on … we had two completely different vendors, two completely different aircraft, and we could use the Autonomous Core System on both. And so that served as kind of a foundation that autonomy was something that was mature enough to be able to move the program forward, and that’s going to feed the CCA approach.”

In its 2023 budget request, the Air Force indicated that it wanted more than $100 million over the next two years to further that approach under a Research, Development, Test, and Engineering program called Autonomous Collaborative Platforms, which “matures technology from the Science and Technology (S&T) Skyborg Vanguard program,” budget documents state.

In that regard, “we see Skyborg as kind of a graduation exercise,” White said. “The Secretary has made it clear he sees the vision of a program of CCAs. That shouldn’t be a question. He’s made that abundantly clear.”

But while Skyborg’s technology is maturing and advancing toward operational use, the program’s S&T side won’t slow down, White added.

“Most people may not know this, but Skyborg is still flying. We just flew again in June,” he said. “They’re still pushing out capability, continuing to push the bounds of what we can do with autonomy.”

Indeed, White indicated that Skyborg has not only proven out technology for autonomous unmanned aircraft, but it has also demonstrated a new way for acquisition and S&T to work together.

“While we may graduate, programmatically speaking, there’s still continued work that needs to be done on the S&T side,” White said. “And what we found is through that process of Skyborg, that relationship between the PEO and [Air Force Research Laboratory] commander [Heather L. Pringle], it has proven to give us so much benefit. I get to steer what I think she should be looking at. And then she goes off and does that. And then that feeds into the decision space of how we build capabilities.”

Ideally, White added, that’s how the Air Force would like for all its programs to work. “In the case of Skyborg, it was just wildly successful in terms of what we got out of it, what we continue to get out of it, and how we use that to present decision space to our leaders on how we set up programs of record,” he said.

Such an approach is especially important for Skyborg given its focus on software, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Observers and officials have frequently bemoaned the Pentagon’s acquisition process for cutting-edge technology, saying it doesn’t work with the rapidly iterated, constantly improving approach of tech innovators.

By allowing Skyborg’s science and technology progress to continue while integrating it into collaborative combat aircraft and other programs, the Air Force is moving closer to operational AI, said Caitlin Lee, senior fellow for the Mitchell Institute’s Center for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems.

“It is really important to prototype and to do so quickly and to iterate quickly and to do lots of tests and evaluation, and Skyborg is doing that,” Lee said. “What I’m talking about is crossing what they call the Valley of Death into a program of record. And I think the real trick there is that you can’t just stovepipe this AI in a program of record all by itself. It’s got to be constantly integrated and developed within a platform and optimized for that platform.”

Troubled Sri Lanka Seeks to Strengthen Relationship With PACAF and Quad

Aug. 16, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

The tiny Indian Ocean island of Sri Lanka has an outsize geostrategic importance, and its military seeks deeper ties with Pacific Air Forces for maritime security and disaster relief while not roiling China, a senior Sri Lankan Air Force official told Air Force Magazine.

Rocked by political unrest and financial collapse in July, the island the size of North Carolina with 22 million inhabitants remains neutral and unaligned but is heavily indebted to China. Just 34 miles off the coast of India at its closest point, Sri Lanka aims to further professionalize its Armed Forces and capabilities at a moment when PACAF is seeking to strengthen regional partnerships.

The Sri Lanka Air Force, 30,000 strong, has sought to work more closely with PACAF and is willing to participate in some exercises of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as “the Quad” grouping, which includes Australia, the United States, Japan, and India.

“We are very concerned about the status quo of the region,” Sri Lankan defense attache Air Vice Marshal Sampath Wickremeratne told Air Force Magazine in a recent meeting at the Embassy of Sri Lanka in Washington, D.C.

“We are very careful, and we do not agitate [any] of the power players in our region,” he said, stressing Sri Lanka’s unaligned status. However, Sri Lanka is worried about shifting security trends in the Indo-Pacific. “There was a status quo, then China coming up with their programs. They are building influence in the region.”

China also came to Sri Lanka’s economic aid with a $3 billion loan in 2020. The assistance is cited as an example of Chinese “debt diplomacy,” whereby lenient terms are given with big strings attached. Now, China holds some 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s debt.

Wickremeratne acknowledged that the United States’ presence in the Indian Ocean traces to the 19th century, and he described China as a “close distant friend,” reflecting its close ties to Sri Lanka while geographically separate.

Sri Lanka’s territorial defense force consists of fewer than 10 fighter jets divided into two small squadrons of Israeli Kfir and Chinese Chengdu F-7G fighters, a licensed version of the Soviet MiG-21 that had been used to contain terrorist groups in the north and east of the island during the insurgency.

The Sri Lanka Air Force’s transport fleet includes two grounded C-130s that lack spare parts due to past U.S. sanctions, the attache said. It relies instead on the Soviet-era Antonov AN-32 and the Chinese-made Xian MA-60. Its helicopter fleet is a mix of Eastern and Western origin, including the Soviet-era Mi-17, Mi-24, and Mi-35 and the American Bell 212, Bell 412, and Bell 206.

For intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, Sri Lanka uses American-supplied Beechcraft turboprop planes.

During the years of internal fighting, many Western countries distanced themselves from defense ties with Sri Lanka, but the country now aspires to reengage globally and strengthen its ability to patrol its territorial waters, which are often used for drug and human trafficking, and illegal fishing.

“We use the satellites and the cloud, and we monitor the dark ships,” Wickremeratne said of illegal vessels.

“For drugs, people recently have used Sri Lanka as a hub for transiting from east to west, from the Afghanistan side to [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] side,” he said. “The Air Force plays a very big role in that because of the speed, reach, and the height. We are able to react sooner than the other forces.”

Now, Sri Lanka aims to develop its transport and ISR capabilities to better respond to humanitarian and disaster relief and to enhance maritime surveillance, an area where PACAF has shown interest in strengthening collaboration.

One way the attache said Sri Lanka can more closely support PACAF’s goals is by allowing the placement of ISR assets such as the U.S. Department of Transportation application SeaVision or Hawkeye 360, a commercial company that gathers radio frequency data from satellite constellations.

Sri Lanka already partners with India, Australia, and Japan regionally. Wickremeratne is an example of how Sri Lanka’s nonaligned status has allowed relations with divergent countries. He has conducted fighter training and flown with the air forces of Israel, Pakistan, and India.

“We are getting a lot of support on maritime security,” Wickremeratne said of ties with the United States.

Sri Lanka’s position on participating in Quad activities, and to a lesser extent, those of the newly formed AUKUS group of Australia, the United Kingdom, and United States, is delicate. Sri Lanka agrees with the group’s objectives to maintain the international order, including maritime boundaries, in contrast to China’s numerous, ongoing maritime disputes and aggressive action in the air and the sea.

“Whatever the security structures that are going to be placed in the Indian Ocean region, we would like to play a part of it, but not in a very military angle,” he said, proposing subject matter exchanges, technology, and intelligence sharing. “Anything that we can take and make our territorial security more powerful.”

Inquiries to the PACAF Sri Lanka desk officer were referred to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which did not respond to requests for comment by Air Force Magazine.

Command Chief Master Sgt. for Pacific Air Forces David R. Wolfe said PACAF is working on ways to meet Sri Lanka’s defense needs and to respect its neutral status.

“All we’re trying to do is help every country take whatever the next step is for them,” Wolfe told Air Force Magazine at the recent Senior Enlisted Leader International Summit outside Washington, D.C., which did not include the participation of Sri Lankan enlisted officials.

“There’s a very loosely tied, like-minded group of countries that each country for a different reason engages at a different level,” he said. “If they have fears about the geopolitical environment, [we need to] try to allay those fears the best we can, and then find what is the next step for them.”

On the enlisted development side, PACAF aspires to help Sri Lanka grow the education and retention of its enlisted corps with opportunities to reach leadership positions. Wickremeratne admitted that after the country’s conflict period, many former soldiers were released into society without job opportunities.

Sri Lanka’s geographic position is also valuable to PACAF.

“Maritime surveillance is a need,” Wolfe said.

“Interoperability is the main thing that we want with all of the countries, and Sri Lanka is no different,” he said. “Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief is our most likely five-meter target, the most likely need. I mean, that can happen tomorrow, right? So, we have to be ready.”

Air Force Official: We‘re ‘Starting to Lose Our Lead’ in Propulsion

Aug. 16, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

DAYTON, Ohio—Reduced competition, over-reliance on legacy systems, and falling funding are all contributing to a “critical inflection point” in propulsion for the Pentagon and industry members—and things are headed in the wrong direction, the director of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s propulsion directorate warned.

Speaking with reporters at the Life Cycle Industry Days conference, John Sneden said there is a significant gap between how the U.S. propulsion enterprise is viewed publicly and how it is actually performing at the moment.

“I think there is a perception, and I think there’s a reality dynamic that’s out there. And we’re usually pretty keen on talking about the dichotomy between the two,” Sneden said. “The perception, I think, that’s out there is that we’re maintaining, if not advancing, our military advantage in propulsion. And that’s always been because we’ve always had the world’s greatest advantage in propulsion. But the reality is that our lead is starting to—we’re essentially stagnating, and we’re starting to lose our lead.”

Part of the problem, Sneden claimed, is a relative lack of propulsion projects being pushed by the Air Force. The Adaptive Engine Transition Program, aimed at developing next-generation propulsion technologies, launched in 2016, but other science and technology programs have yet to follow.

“We’ve had no large combat engine science and technology program in our labs since 2018. AETP was the last big program that came out of that,” Sneden said.

From an operational perspective, “we haven’t done a new fighter engine, transitioned it to the field, since essentially the F135 in the early 2000s timeframe,” Sneden said.

For more than a decade, Congress, the Pentagon, and industry members had considered the idea of an alternate engine for the F-35 fleet, with proponents saying it was necessary to increase competition and drive down costs.

That idea never came to fruition, however. And with no other major fighter engine programs transitioning to production since, “from an industrial base perspective, you start to get some atrophying of it, if you don’t continue to push the marketplace forward to drive those outcomes,” Sneden said.

Instead, the Air Force has turned to legacy engines to power new programs such as the F-15EX and T-7A—the F-15EX will use the the F110-GE-129, while the T-7 will have the F404-103. And while industry officials have promised that these new engines will provide upgraded performance, “inserting brand new technology into our legacy propulsion systems … means that you’re not … really exercising that advanced propulsion side with the industrial base,” Sneden said.

That issue could become even more urgent in the near future, as the Air Force, the F-35 Joint Program Office, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense consider the future of F-35 propulsion. The fighter has endured engine issues that have kept jets grounded and sent sustainment costs soaring.

There’s a consensus that something must be done, but Pratt & Whitney, which makes the F135, is pushing for what it calls the F135 Enhanced Engine Package, an update of the existing system, while GE Aviation is advocating for its AETP engine, the XA-100.

Should leaders decide to stick with the F135, Sneden warned that the future of AETP would be murky at best. Beyond that, only one other advanced propulsion program is in the works, the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion program, and Sneden said the Air Force, constrained by a lack of resources, will have to commit to a vendor for that program by late 2024.

“If we end up with one vendor there and we don’t move forward with AETP, that vendor could actually get us into a place where we have essentially a reduced advanced propulsion industrial base,” Sneden said. “So we are concerned about it.”

Lack of competition isn’t the only concern. Sneden also pointed to declining funds for the propulsion directorate’s Component Improvement Program, which is focused on safety and reliability. In 2021, the initiative got $121 million in the Air Force’s budget. The Future Years Defense Plan submitted with the 2023 budget included just $34 million combined from 2024 to 2026, before ticking back up to $90 million in 2027.

Less funding will only exacerbate other issues, Sneden said.

“If you really want to win in the battle against China, who is catching up to us, who is spending the dollars, putting the emphasis … to obtain parity with the U.S., you have to invest in propulsion to be able to move yourself forward,” Sneden said. “So the message here really is a simple one. If we want to hold on to our propulsion advantage, we have to invest. We have to move our propulsion technologies forward. And we have to get them in the hands of the warfighter. Otherwise, China will have parity with us and eventually will exceed where we’re at.”

Brown Tours Pacific as U.S. and China Hold Dueling Exercises

Aug. 15, 2022 | By Abraham Mahshie

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. had hardly left the Indo-Pacific theater before China flew a joint bomber and fighter mission with U.S. partner Thailand. In nearby Indonesia, the U.S. concluded exercise Garuda Shield alongside Australia, Japan, and Singapore.

Brown’s first trip back to the theater where he commanded Pacific Air Forces from 2018 to 2020 comes at a time of heightened U.S. competition with China. Brown kicked off his trip at Travis Air Force Base, Calif., before visiting Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii; Andersen Air Force Base, Guam; Kadena, Air Base, Japan; Osan and Kunsan Air Bases, South Korea; Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska; and U.S. partners and allies in Singapore and the Philippines from Aug. 4 to 13.

“In order protect and enhance our collective international security, we need to focus on purposefully fostering our relationships,” Brown told senior enlisted leaders Aug. 1 at a gathering of 65 nations outside Washington, D.C.

Brown reflected on the relationships he built at the Air Command and Staff College at Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala., in 1997. His former classmates included the current air chiefs of Japan, Mexico, and Israel, he said.

“Those relationships are so important, relationships you build at the senior level, and relationships you build at more junior levels, and how they overlap in some form or fashion and offer the chance to work together,” Brown said. “The emerging challenges and threats of today require the weight of effort from all our nation’s best.”

Just days after delivering the message of nurturing long-standing relationships, Brown was on a plane for the Indo-Pacific to rekindle some of his own.

Meanwhile, China soon began live-fire exercises around Taiwan and launched a major exercise with the Thai Air Force. Thailand’s joint training exercise with China comes despite a close and long-standing U.S. basing relationship with Thailand and a June visit by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III.

Brown’s Pacific Swing

Brown set the stage for his Pacific swing Aug. 4 at Travis, the largest air mobility wing, and what he called the “Gateway to the West” for its role in defense of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

At Hickam, Brown discussed the value of strengthening relationships with allies and partners, and 15th Wing Airmen highlighted how they work with regional partners to integrate joint operations. As he spoke, 14 nations, hosted by Indonesia and the United States, were conducting exercise Garuda Shield 2022.

Garuda Shield welcomed for the first time Australia, Singapore, and Japan alongside Canada, France, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and growing U.S. Pacific partners Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. While primarily a land and sea exercise, this year’s expanded “Super Garuda Shield” also included air defense exercises, airborne operations, and an airfield seizure exercise.

By Aug. 7, Brown toured Andersen Air Force Base and Northwest Field, Guam, which have undergone new construction as America’s westernmost power projection point.

At each stop, Brown held an all-call with Airmen to discuss the Air Force’s role in the National Defense Strategy, to talk about resiliency, and to urge Airmen to innovate. In small group settings, he had breakfasts and lunches with Airmen to gather their feedback and to provide mentorship, according to a readout provided to Air Force Magazine.

At Kadena Air Base on Aug. 11, Brown said Airman must exploit the air domain through mission control and empowerment of Airmen.

“Successful operations and combat support in a contested environment demand maximum delegation, trust, and empowerment of Airmen before conflict starts,” he said at the all-call. Brown also honored Master Sgt. Jason Yunker for his innovative work on the Versatile Integrating Partner Equipment Refueling (VIPER) kit to refuel aircraft in austere locations.

In South Korea, Brown visited both Osan and Kunsan Air Bases on Aug. 12, where in 2007-2008, he served as 8th Fighter Wing commander. Brown then flew north to Eielson Air Force Base. Details were not available about his Eielson trip, and the Air Force chief held no public meetings before his partner-building trips to Singapore and the Philippines.

Brown was in the city state of Singapore Aug.7-10, one of the strongest U.S. partners in Southeast Asia, to reaffirm the strong bilateral defense partnership and to discuss ways to enhance cooperation. There, he met with the Singapore minister of defense, chief of the defense force, and chief of the Air Force. He participated in a national day parade and was given Singapore’s military Meritorious Service Medal.

“Strong bilateral relationships like that of the U.S. and Singapore are cultivated over time and are based on communication and transparency and shared values and interests,” Brown said, according to an Air Force press release.

The United States and Singapore celebrated the 30th anniversary of exercise Commando Sling in June. Brown and Singapore’s leaders discussed the planned consolidation of Singapore’s Air Force F-16 and future F-35 fighter jet training detachments in the United States.

Brown’s final stop was the Philippines, where a new government has signaled its willingness to cooperate militarily with China. Brown’s visit was consistent with a Defense Department hope to deepen the U.S.-Filipino defense partnership after strained relations under ex-president Rodrigo Duterte.

In Manila, Brown met with the Chief of Staff of the Philippines Armed Forces and the Air Force command general to discuss ways to deepen cooperation. The Philippines is among the nations with whom China has acted aggressively on the high seas and maintains a maritime dispute. The Philippines, nonetheless, is deeply dependent on China economically.

“The U.S.-Philippine alliance is strong; we support a resilient and independent Philippines with the capability to protect its sovereignty and defend its security interests on its own terms,” Brown said, according to a press release.

The Air Force Chief of Staff told Philippines defense leaders that the United States would support Philippine Air Force modernization requirements. Brown is expected to brief members of the media Aug. 17 to provide further details about the objectives and accomplishments of his Pacific trip.

Air Force F-35 Stand Down Ends After Ejection Seat Inspections

Aug. 15, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

Two weeks after announcing a stand down of its F-35 fleet to check for potentially faulty parts in the fighters’ ejection seats, the Air Force has mostly completed its inspections and the aircraft have been cleared to resume normal operations, Air Combat Command announced Aug. 15.

The stand down, ordered July 29, affected fleets across ACC, Air Education and Training Command, U.S. Air Forces in Europe, and Pacific Air Forces. In a statement to Air Force Magazine, an ACC spokesperson said most of the service’s 349 jets were inspected, along with additional supplies of the part in question, a cartridge-actuated device, or CAD.

Each fighter has two CADs, and all told, 706 of the cartridges were inspected. Of those 706, four “were found to be suspect” and replaced, the spokesperson said.

A number of F-35s remained uninspected as of Aug. 15. The ACC spokesperson clarified that they are in depot status. Under a Time Compliance Technical Directive, all aircraft must be inspected within 90 days.

“Those aircraft will be inspected within the TCTD’s 90-day compliance period or before their next flight,” the spokesperson said of the remaining uninspected fighters.

The issue at the heart of the stand down was discovered in April during a routine inspection at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, when maintainers found a faulty CAD that had an insufficient amount of explosive powder. Without the needed explosive powder, the cartridges may not initiate necessary actions if the pilot commands an ejection.

Inspecting the cartridges involved taking each jet out of service for a day so its seat could be removed from the aircraft. From there, the CADs can be removed quickly and inspected. Maintainers who are unsure whether a cartridge has enough explosive powder can X-ray it.

The Air Force’s F-35s are not the only fleet that has encountered the issue. The Navy and Marine Corps have reportedly conducted cartridge replacements on at least five different kinds of aircraft, and Martin-Baker seats are used by dozens of other countries and air forces. Germany, Israel, and the United Kingdom have all announced inspections as well.

Lawmakers and advocates have closely followed issues with Air Force ejection seats for several years, leading to legislation. As a result, the services are “taking no chances. They are going for zero risk,” a Martin-Baker official previously told Air Force Magazine.

Editor’s Note: This story was updated on Aug. 16 to clarify the role the CADs play in the ejection process.

Austin Tests Positive for COVID-19 Again—Second Time in Eight Months

Aug. 15, 2022 | By Amanda Miller

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has COVID-19 for the second time in 2022.

Austin said in a statement Aug. 15 that he had tested positive that morning. He was “experiencing mild symptoms” and planned to “quarantine at home for the next five days” in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Austin previously tested positive for the coronavirus in January.

A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed that Austin will test negative before returning to the office, as President Joe Biden did. Austin said his last “in-person contact” with Biden was July 29, which was a day before Biden himself had to go back into isolation. Biden’s infection and subsequent so-called “rebound” infection lasted from July 21 to Aug. 6 in all.

Austin said he’s fully vaccinated, including two booster doses. He attributed his vaccination status with symptoms being “less severe than would otherwise be the case.” He planned to “retain all authorities” while working from home. Austin took part in the change of command ceremony for U.S. Africa Command on Aug. 9 and traveled to Latvia the same day.

As of Aug. 5, 689 service members, Defense Department civilians, dependents, and contractor personnel had died of COVID-19. A total of 697,522 cases had been reported, with patients hospitalized 6,502 times. The Department of the Air Force reported that as of Aug. 8, 165 personnel had died out of 158,375 cases.

Coronavirus transmission was “high” in 94 percent of U.S. counties Aug. 15, according to the CDC.

The Department of Veterans Affairs has led research into the consequences of repeatedly being infected with the coronavirus. Researchers analyzed data in the department’s “vast health care databases” to figure out the immediate risks of reinfections as well as health outcomes up to six months later.

The VA researchers compared patients with one to as many as three or more infections and found that “reinfection contributes additional risks of all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and adverse health outcomes in the pulmonary [lung] and several extrapulmonary organ systems.” Those included cardiovascular and blood disorders, diabetes, and fatigue along with gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal, and neurologic disorders. The “risks were evident in those who were unvaccinated, had 1 shot, or 2 or more shots prior to the second infection.”

Austin last tested positive Jan. 2, worked virtually during that infection, and returned to the Pentagon on Jan. 10.

The DOD revised some of its COVID-19 rules in a memo dated Aug. 8. The new guidelines clarified what’s meant by being “up to date” on COVID-19 vaccines and when personnel must wear masks in vehicles, among other changes.

F-35 Lot 15 Will Include Up to 129 Fighters, Cost $7.6 Billion

Aug. 15, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

Lot 15 of the F-35 fighter will include up to 129 aircraft, with 49 F-35As for the Air Force, and cost up to $7.6 billion, according to the details of a contract award announced by the Pentagon on Aug. 12.

The final contract award came less than a month after the F-35 Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin announced a “handshake” deal for Lots 15-17 of the fighter, the result of months of delayed negotiations.

As part of that handshake deal, the JPO agreed to buy 375 fighters for an average of 125 per lot, roughly in line with the 129 agreed to in Lot 15 but well below the 156 per year that Lockheed Martin CEO James D. Taiclet had previously predicted.

The announcement of the handshake agreement did not include any information on pricing, per-variant totals, or how many each service and partner country would receive. In the Lot 15 announcement, some of those details were revealed. Of the 129 total aircraft,

the Air Force will get 49 F-35As;
the Marine Corps will get three F-35Bs and 10 F-35Cs;
the Navy will get 15 F-35Cs;
non-DOD participants—international partners in the F-35 program—will get 32 F-35As and four F-35Bs;
and Foreign Military Sales customers will get 16 F-35As.

The announcement does not specify which international partners or FMS customers will get the Lot 15 jets.

In addition to the fighters themselves, the Lot 15 deal, technically a modification to a previous advance acquisition contract, will include “69 shipsets of technical hardware.”

Work on the contract is expected to last until October 2024, with the majority occurring in Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas, facility. The Air Force is providing the largest chunk of funding at roughly $2.7 billion, taken from its 2020 and 2021 aircraft procurement accounts.

The JPO and Lockheed Martin had previously said they were working first to ink a deal for Lots 15 and 16 “as a high priority.” The JPO will “exercise a contract option for Lot 17 in FY 2023” after the fiscal 2023 budget is made final, in order to take into account any congressional adds or international orders.

The overall lower numbers of jets agreed to in Lots 15-17 come as the Air Force cut back on its purchase of F-35s in the 2023 budget, down to just 33 F-35As, with plans to go even lower in 2024.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has indicated that the service is waiting for Lockheed Martin to finish developing the long-awaited Block 4 and Technical Refresh 3 updates for the fighter before increasing its buys again, to avoid having to retrofit fighters in the future.

At the same time, the cost of the F-35 is likely to go up. While the Pentagon did not release an exact price per tail in the Lot 15 contract, both DOD and Lockheed Martin have pointed toward the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation, as challenges in negotiations that will likely drive up costs.

Air Force Keeping F-16s, Not Moving Toward Fighter Derived From MR-F or T-7 for Now

Aug. 14, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

DAYTON, Ohio—With upgrades, F-16s can serve as a numbers-builder in the combat air forces until the 2040s, and it’s not necessary to launch its successor yet, program officials said at an industry conference.

“We anticipate hundreds of F-16s in active service for decades to come,” meaning into the 2040s, Col. Tim Bailey, Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s F-16 program manager, said in a press conference at the Life Cycle Industry Days.

Brig. Gen. Dale White, program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft, said much of the recent service-life extension program (SLEP) work on the F-16 has bought years of additional life for the type, and he’s gotten no instructions to start work on its successor, which USAF has dubbed the “MR-F” or “MR-X,” for a future multirole fighter.

White also said there’s no requirement passed to AFLCMC to evaluate the Boeing T-7 as a possible successor platform to the F-16.

The MR-F first showed up in planning documents in 2021 that indicated the Air Force was looking to an F-16 successor in the mid-2030s. The documents suggested the aircraft sought would not be intended as an all-up, very stealthy jet, but what Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. characterized as a “fifth-gen-minus” fighter, for which affordability, and not necessarily high-level survivability, would be a key requirement.

Former head of Air Combat Command retired Gen. James “Mike” Homes suggested that an armed version of the Boeing T-7 trainer could be adapted to such a role and also serve as an export fighter for partner countries lacking the funds or expertise to operate and maintain a more complex aircraft.

But “I have nothing in the mix with requirements from ACC to pursue that,” Bailey said of the MR-F and T-7 derivative.

The Air Force last year laid out its future fighter force structure, necking down from seven fighter types today to “4+1,” in which the F-22, later replaced by the Next Generation Air Dominance system, is one; the F-35 is the second; the F-15E/F-15EX are the third; and the F-16 is the fourth—with the A-10 as the “plus one” set to phase out in 2030. The service posited the clean-sheet MR-F design or T-7 derivative as succeeding the F-16.

“The 4+1 is still the strategy,” White said, “and there has been talk about the MR-X. We do what the requirements folks tell us. It’s good to have options.”

White said it’s “a healthy thing” that the Air Force has the F-35 and F-15EX in production for itself and that Lockheed Martin is still building F-16s for the international market. Technology created for the latest F-16s can be inserted into the Air Force’s existing F-16 aircraft, he said, noting that a major radar upgrade for the jet was “actually paid for by Taiwan.”

“While I don’t have any firm requirement” for an F-16 replacement, “I know the MR-F piece is going to continue to be looked at, because at some point we’ll have to have a replacement” for the F-16.

He said the MR-F for now resides with ACC’s program planning shop.

The F-16 is structurally healthy and can continue to serve, Bailey said.

The service life extension program now largely complete, “for a few million dollars per jet, gives you 20 years of life,” Bailey said.

“The F-16 provides the capacity in our Air Force: lots of fighters to cover all kinds of combatant commander needs,” he said. However, “it has to be relevant. Not just the F-16 of today.”

White said F-16s are being fitted with active electronically-scanned array radars “as fast as we possibly can,” saying this modification is underway “at nine different bases” and the F-16 depot at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The radars expand the sensing range of the aircraft, the number of targets it can track, and the modes with which it can prosecute ground targets.

The jets will also get “a host of other upgrades: EW (electronic warfare) kind of things,” which, along with the radar, are the “big mods” being done on the fighter, White said.

The F-16 entered Air Force service in 1978 but has been modified over the years with more powerful engines, radars, self-protection systems, and nearly every munition the Air Force fields.

Additional upgrades depend on the capabilities available across the fighter enterprise, White said, and any upgrade to the F-16 could be costly because of the numbers of the aircraft.

“There are … almost 900 F-16s in the Air Force … Any mod becomes an expensive mod when you have that many airplanes,” he said. “So, we’ll see. See what it takes.”

Future upgrades may borrow from the foreign military sales “side of the house,” he said, wherein USAF can apply upgrades that F-16 customers are adding to their new or existing jets.

Most of the Air Force’s F-16s will also eventually wear the “Have Glass” finish, which substitutes a new radar-absorbing coating for the jet’s traditional gray-on-gray paint scheme.

Asked if the Air Force has F-16s available for potential transfer to Ukraine, White said “the needs of Ukraine today are being met with the systems you see being exported to Ukraine—HiMARS, etc.”

Ukraine has “other needs” as well, and “a few years down the road … some of those could involve fighter aircraft,” he said.

Requirements for KC-Y Likely in Fall; Analysis of Alternatives for KC-Z Set for 2024

Aug. 12, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

DAYTON, Ohio—The Air Force’s nascent KC-Z program, aimed at developing a next-generation family of systems for aerial refueling, will look to launch its analysis-of-alternatives study in 2024, years earlier than originally planned, a top acquisition official said Aug. 11.

Originally, the analysis of alternatives for the KC-Z was set for “maybe in the 2030s,” Paul Waugh, program executive officer for mobility and training aircraft, told reporters at the Life Cycle Industry Days conference.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, however, directed that work on the next-gen tanker start much more quickly, “so we moved it to the left,” Waugh said.

That work will now begin in 2023, Waugh said, as the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center teams with Air Mobility Command on “pre-analysis of alternatives,” followed by the official analysis the next year, helping to “inform where KC-Z, the whole family of systems, goes,” Waugh said.

Waugh’s characterization of KC-Z as a family of systems follows on a request for information issued by AFLCMC that referred to a new Advanced Aerial Refueling Family of Systems program. That RFI emphasized technologies like survivability, autonomy, and interoperability, and Waugh echoed the RFI in stating that the tech developed for KC-Z could eventually make its way onto the rest of the tanker fleet.

“Some of that technology may make its way into KC-Y or KC-46, or KC-135. It just depends on what it is and where it’s at,” Waugh said.

Bridge Tanker Timeline

The state of KC-Y, also referred to as the bridge tanker, has been hotly discussed as of late, as Kendall has said several times now that the likelihood of a competition has gone down for the refueler that will “bridge” the gap between the KC-46 and KC-Z.

“As we look for requirements, look further out, the requirements start to look like a modified KC-46 more than they do a completely new design,” Kendall told reporters in March.

However, Kendall has also couched his comments by saying that a final decision will be made after the Air Force finishes formulating its requirements and conducts its due-diligence market research analysis.

Waugh indicated that those requirements could be coming soon.

“We’re waiting for the requirements to come out from the Air Force. So, Air Mobility Command, the lead command for the mobility side of the enterprise, is working the requirements with the Air Force staff to get them finalized and then put into the [Joint Requirements Oversight Council and Joint Capabilities Integration Development System] process,” Waugh said. “And then [they will] come out, which we think will be sometime in the fall—we don’t really get a good idea of when they’re going to come out, but sometime in the fall.”

In the meantime, the AFLCMC has been conducting “some background work,” Waugh said, including issuing a request from industry for input “from the two prime contenders”—Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

While Boeing has indicated it plans to essentially re-enter its KC-46 for the program, Lockheed Martin has teamed with Airbus for what it is calling LMXT, a modified A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport.

At the Farnborough International Airshow in July in the United Kingdom, Erin Moseley, Lockheed Martin’s vice president for strategy and business development for aeronautics, told reporters the company’s expectation is that “we’ll have the opportunity to compete fairly.”

Based off the responses and data provided from Boeing and Lockheed Martin, AFLCMC was able to start work on a business case analysis for KC-Y, Waugh said. And that analysis will “help inform an acquisition decision after we have a set of requirements.”

The analysis will be updated after the requirements are officially released, and a final acquisition decision will follow a few months later.

“If we get a set of requirements in the fall, then the acquisition decision would be sometime in probably the spring of next year, the spring of 2023,” Waugh said.