Kelly: Take an Iterative Approach to Collaborative Combat Aircraft or Risk Getting it Wrong

Kelly: Take an Iterative Approach to Collaborative Combat Aircraft or Risk Getting it Wrong

The Air Force’s approach to developing Collaborative Combat Aircraft—uncrewed airplanes that will fly in loose formation with crewed airplanes to perform missions such as sensing and jamming—should be rapid but iterative, lest the service get the concept wrong and have to back up and start over, Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark D. Kelly said.

 “Everyone is in agreement,” Kelly told reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference, that CCAs are “something in our future,” and he expects early versions will be in the hands of Airmen to start experimenting with in less than two years.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall “is right” that the technology exists for prototype systems to be built, Kelly said, but the right approach will be to let pilots work with them and decide where to put the emphasis in further development.

“The captains will lead us through this,” he said. “That’s the path we’re going on: get the tools to the Airmen and get out of their way. Let them iterate and innovate.” He urged that the Air Force listen to those who will fight with the CCAs.

“Throw it into the mix … and learn,” he said.  He said he’s sure that “if we try to foist” an end-item “on them and tell them how to do it, we’ll mess this up.”

The discussion now underway, he said, is “how are we going to get there? Are we going to swing for the fence and have these things almost operational in a short amount of time, or are we going to kind of get some singles and folks on base and try to iterate our way there?”

Kelly called himself a fan and an advocate of iteration, “because there’s so much we don’t know. And if we try to shoehorn our way into something … we may cue up an exquisite miss.” He also noted that exquisite capabilities usually end up being very expensive.

“And then if I build an exquisite CCA—exquisite means exquisite pricing—I could have a CCA that could punch into really, really highly-defended piece of airspace, I don’t have resilient comms, and that thing doesn’t know how to phone home … I don’t get it home.”

His advice to industry would be to make “clean sheet” CCA design “something you can iterate” with modular, interchangeable sensors, radar, jammers, etc.

“Unlock a nose, bolt on another nose,” he said. “Quickly take off the radars, put on the jammers,” so that the CCAs can rapidly adapt to a changing air battle.

“I would not lock us into…’it’s a sensor…a jammer…it can’t do anything else.’”

He acknowledges that many in the senior leadership want to go fast on CCAs; to rapidly put them in the field and start increasing the number of combat platforms for capacity, and also to impose cost on China by giving America’s pacing adversary more it must shoot at.

“I think we can iterate pretty fast,” Kelly said, but warned that “if we lock ourselves into” something of a certain size or capability, it could turn out to be “a race to failure … under the banner of ‘accelerate, change or lose.’”

If “we … find out we’re wrong, we have to go back to the start,” he said, and that would cost time and resources USAF doesn’t have to squander.

“But I agree with the Secretary: we need to start doing and iterating and test-driving this, and get ourselves away from some of the PowerPoint slides. … He’s right, that there’s enough out there that we can start iterating now.”

He also said the operational concepts and authorities have to develop in pace with the technology. Right now, he said, armed, uncrewed aircraft like the MQ-9 are limited to operations from just a few bases such as Creech Air Force Base, Nev., Tonopah Test Range, Nev., Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., and Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla.

He said he lacks the authority to land such an aircraft “anywhere I want in the U.S.,” which inhibits their ability to integrate with the force and be incorporated into large-force training.

“You can race down the track of autonomy, but if you don’t have the authority to go right with it,” the concept will falter, he said.

“So I’ve got to have autonomy, authority and resilient comms (communications)” to make the CCA concept work, he said.

Overall, it’s too early to be thinking about what squadrons will look like with a mix of crewed and uncrewed aircraft, but some are, Kelly added.

Watch, Read: Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. on The State of the Air Force

Watch, Read: Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. on The State of the Air Force

Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown delivered a keynote address on ‘The State of the Air Force’ at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Sept. 19, 2022. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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We’ve done this before. We can do it again.

When I became the chief, I shared my strategic approach: Accelerate change or lose. Because as I looked across the security horizon, three things crystallized for me:

  • Uncontested air force dominance is not assured;
  • Good enough today will fail tomorrow;
  • We must collaborate within and throughout to succeed.

As the international security landscape changes, we must also change and prepare to preserve our way of life. In Hap Arnold’s final World War II report, he said, “A modern, autonomous, and thoroughly trained air force will not alone be sufficient, but without it there will be no national security.” These words from 1945 are just as applicable today as when they were first written. If we don’t get this right together, if we fail to adapt, we risk our national security, our ideals, and the current rules-based international order. But if we do get this right together, if we do adapt, we’ll preserve the freedoms we hold most dear, the same freedoms that enables the spread of democracy, supports alliances and partnerships built on common values, and strengthen societies all around the world.

As a department and the Air Force celebrates our 75th anniversary, I want to thank our leadership of our one team: our secretary, the Honorable Frank Kendall; undersecretary, the Honorable Gina Ortiz Jones; the Chief of Space Operations, Gen. Jay Raymond; Chief Master of the Air Force JoAnne Bass; and Chief Master of the Space Force Roger Towberman. Thank you all for what you do for our Air Force and for our Space Force.

As the secretary shared in his remarks, one member of our leadership team will be retiring soon. Jay and Mollie, Sharene and I are honored to have worked closely with you on the historic task of standing up the Space Force. Having first cross paths back in 1996 at Air Command and Staff College, we, and I know so many others, want to wish you the very best as you open the next chapter. Although the leadership of the one team will change, the one fight will continue, focused on ensuring that we remain the world’s preeminent air force and space force. Congratulations, Jay, on a job well done.

Now, I do wonder, as we make the transition to [Lt. Gen. B. Chance Saltzman], I wonder if Salty’s going to get the Department of Air Force chief … same haircut style. We’ll see if we can put some money on how that’s going to play out.

I’ll also say huge thanks to the Air Force Association for organizing this week, providing Airmen and Guardians an opportunity to celebrate an important anniversary, giving us all opportunities for professional development and strengthen our relationships. And Chief Murray, I’m not sure who approved you to be able to move away, but it’s been a real honor to be working with you over the past several years at this event and throughout all the other events that the Air Force Association supports. So thank you very much for what you’ve done for us.

Our airpower forefathers may have laid the groundwork that led to the establishment of our Air Force, but it’s organizations like AFA and your unwavering advocacy that sustains us into the future. We appreciate your tireless support advancing airpower.

And finally, and most importantly, to the world’s greatest Airmen—Active, Guard, Reserve, and civilian—and your families, thanks for all you do to make us the world’s most respected air force.

Over the last two years, I watched with pride. I’ve seen the vision of “Accelerate change or lose” take hold in every corner of our Air Force. This year’s 75th anniversary marks another way point on our journey. And as we cross three quarters of a century as a separate service, we have much to be proud of, but we cannot rest on our laurels. As I reflect on our history, as I ponder our future in the next 75 years, I remain confident, especially as I look across this crowd of incredible Airmen and all you represent.

Today, I reflect on how the world’s greatest Airmen have collaborated, accelerated, innovated, and thrived, many times in the face of daunting challenges. And it’s clear our Air Force and nation already know how to accelerate change. We’ve done this before and we can do it again. And our past ingredients of success are collaborating with our Joint teammates, allies, and partners in industry and academia, accelerating change to outpace our competitors, and innovating the technical and perceptive boundaries of what airpower can do, all our fundamental elements we need to thrive when addressing the pacing, acute and unforeseen challenges of the future.

The Air Force’s legacy started long before the establishment of our service. It began with a dream by two brothers from Dayton, who unlocked the secrets of aerodynamics and achieved something thought impossible. That is our legacy. We are the United States Air Force. And when I say we have done this before, you may be asking, “What is ‘this?’” This is what others accept as impossible, but the complacent dare not try. This is a difficult task that requires pushing through failure until finding success. This is taking risk, knowing what’s at stake if we don’t. This is accelerating change. And this has always been part of our DNA. And our incredible Airmen have always risen to the challenge and found a way.

We did this leading up to 1947, when airpower pioneers pushed the limits, challenged the status quo, proving the preeminence of airpower against overwhelming odds, when courageous visionaries, the likes of Billy Mitchell, Bessie Coleman, Hap Arnold, Jimmy Doolittle, Amelia Earhart, and Benjamin Davis, Jr. foresaw the importance of unlocking the hidden value of airpower and talent of the air-minded, establishing airpower credibility that led to the establishment of the Air Force as a separate service. We trace our lineage to these giants in aviation and Air Force history, who in some cases risked their reputations and their careers to pursue what they knew to be a noble cause.

We did this in 1948 when the U.S. and our allies foiled the Soviet blockade in Germany and proved the Air Force could deliver airpower anytime, anywhere. Without firing a shot, we embarked on the largest aerial resupply mission in history during Operation Vittles, landing at Tempelhof Airport every 45 seconds and delivering more than 13,000 tons of cargo in a single day.

We did this in the 1950s when we proved global strike can occur in a matter of minutes, enhancing our deterrence and creating the backbone of extended deterrence which exists today. As the Cold War heated up and the Soviet nuclear threat increased, the Air Force and industry and academia developed a solution. In just two years, the Air Force launched its first operational Atlas intercontinental ballistic missile.

We did this in the ’70s and the ’80s. We developed a groundbreaking technology to counter increasing air defense capabilities around the world. The Air Force took an idea from an urgent operational need and filled it in brand new and revolutionary capability, the F-117 Nighthawk. We did so in record time, paving the way for stealth technology we see today.

We did this in the 1990s, with a coalition of the willing, bringing stability to Southeast Europe, stopping a humanitarian emergency and upholding democratic values. Thirteen nations rallied around a common cause to end the brutal ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians, during Operation Allied Force. This campaign marked multiple firsts for our Air Force, the filling of the MQ-1 Predator in 39 days, the first operational use of the B-2, and the first time the Combined Air Operations Center was employed as a weapon system.

And we did this in 2001. We did not allow terrorists to break our spirits and change our way of life. We rose as Americans and saw the strength of our nation when challenged. And for 21 years, there have been no major terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

At every stage, in every new trial, no matter how difficult, we proved that we could rise above any challenge. We proved that we were willing to take risk. And we proved we could solve any problem. We collaborated across our Air Force and within DOD, with allies and partners, industry and academia. We accelerated by driving outcomes, challenging the status quo, and not waiting for the perfect conditions to be act.

We innovated through experimentation, rapid prototyping, adapting new ideas, and having a bias for action, risk-taking, and creative disruption across all levels of Airmen. Nothing could stop us, in every challenge and in every era. We have done this before, no matter how seemingly impossible or difficult, and we can do it again.

For the last 30 years, we’ve enjoyed a period of steady state dominance in which we’ve grown accustomed to being an Air Force with unmatched technical prowess. We now find ourselves in a pivotal period, one that is fundamentally reshaping the international security landscape. When our nation was focused on countering violent extremists for two decades, our competitors focused on matching our way of war. Our tactical skills are sharp, but we need to reframe our thinking to meet the challenges we will face in the future.

In many ways, today’s security environment parallels our past, from competition among nations, the race for technology advancements, territorial disputes, to vying for resources. These are not new challenges, but the complexity and combination are more than ever before. And the growing capabilities of our strategic competitors challenges our advantages, but our Air Force thrives under challenging conditions. We know strategic competition and we know what it means to accelerate change, because we’ve done this before and we can do it again.

When we provide intent, trust and empower Airmen, they rise to the challenge, even in the most impossible circumstances, Airmen likes Senior Master Sgt. Cedric Evans of the PACAF headquarters. Cedric, I know you’re here some place. Could you please stand up?

Now, Cedric is leading the creation of the Inter-Pacific Air Forces Academy, delivering professional military education and collaboration with more than 10 allied and partner nations—sharing ideas, strengthening our relationships, and enhancing a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Airmen like Senior Master Sgt. Brent Kenny of the 52nd Fighter Wing, who created a way to provide drinking water and save energy in remote locations. Instead of using pallets of prepackaged water and diesel generators, he used solar fabric and an environmental water harvester, saving money and precious cargo space.

Airmen like Senior Airman Kyle Swink, an Explosive Ordinance Disposal team member assigned to the 6th Air Refueling Wing. Kyle was frustrated that his counter IED system, the JCREW, would not stay stable in the field, impacting its operation. After collaborating with academia and within a single afternoon, a solution was developed. Kyle will take delivery of five units next month.

Airmen like Capt. Taylor Bye of the 23rd Wing, who experienced a catastrophic gun failure on her aircraft, and the canopy of her A-10 went scoring through the sky. It is because of her immense professionalism, calm demeanor, and ability to tap into her years of training, that Taylor was able to safely perform a gear up, no canopy landing.

Last week’s Air Force Tattoo, in front of 49 international air chiefs and a home crowd of thousands, our Air Force honor guard and the Air Force planned and executed a spectacular display of military and musical precision. This doesn’t happen by itself. It’s because of Airmen like Senior Airman Essence Martin, Tech Sgt. Matthew Slabin, and Tech Sg.t Brandon Lightburn from the Air Force Honor Guard. I know they’re here as well; if they could stand up so they could also be recognized.

And Master Sgt. Brooke Emory, Senior Master Sgt. Chad Randolph, and Chief Master Sgt. Dennis Hoffman from the Air Force Band, I know you’re also here. We’d like to get you a little publicity.

And finally, the man behind the magic, really, Lt. Col. Dave Fink, who led the detail planning and coordination for more than 450 personnel. He spent a lot of time in my office talking about the vision for the Tattoo. He really set the bar high for following tattoos. Dave, if you could please stand.

Last Thursday night, for those that went with us, you saw our Airmen demonstrate the unmatched discipline and professionalism found in all 689,000 Airmen that make us the world’s most respected air force. Seeing all the incredible accomplishments our Airmen have done and continue to do, I’m confident we can do it again, but we must do this together. Success takes help. Failure can be done alone. In order to protect and enhance our future collective international security, we need our emphasis on collaboration and integrate like never before, because the emerging threats of today require a collective effort.

Considering we just completed a very successful International Air Chiefs Conference, I want to focus on allies and partners for a moment. We must start at the beginning with the end in mind. We need to be integrated by design. Integrated by design is a deliberate way we must all work together to understand the environment, to find the threat, share information, and employ airpower. Integrated by design is not new. It is a renewed emphasis on integration that is discussed more often than truly executed.

It expands our approach to developing people, policies, and processes, and the need for partnership. Integrated by design is our cooperative effort to build the most capable air forces in the world. We must start with allies and partners in mind versus building the U.S. first, then adapting to include our allies and partners later. We must collaborate when we innovate by design, because the evolving complexities of today remind us we can not do this alone. Not only do we need to collaborate and integrate, but we must accelerate. Our window of opportunity is closing.

Our future requires us to get beyond talking about what we want to do. We have to go do. We need an approach that serves our national security and defense strategies, our Joint war-fighting concept, and recognizes the changing trends and tendencies in the character of warfare. We need to accelerate the adoption of operational concepts to integrate our core missions at key points in time. Adoption is more than just drafting the concept and putting it on the shelf in the event of crisis, contingency, or conflict. Adoption is making the concepts part of our DNA, part of our culture. Bottom line, we must build our culture, not just our concepts.

We are committed to five areas that will drive culture change: mission command, force generation, agile combat employment, multi-capable airmen, and the wing A-staff construct. We must do it now, because our adversaries will not wait for us to perfect these concepts. You might ask, “Are we really going to do this? Are we really committed?” Let me tell you, if we can’t drive culture change, if we can’t get on the same page, if we debate and litigate decisions after they’ve been made, let there be no doubt the decision has been made. It is now time to execute.

We rewrote Air Force Doctrine Publication 1 with a focus on mission command, which requires mutual trust, shared understanding and clear commanders’ intent. Leaders need to give our Airmen intent, empower them, and get the hell out of the way. Now, we might think this is intuitive. I assure you, based on Action Order B, it is not. To make our doctrine easier to grasp and to read, we took 141 pages and knocked it down to 16 pages, so there is no excuse not to read and know our doctrine. Bottom line, we can’t wait to implement mission command in a conflict. It needs to be something we do every day.

We’re transforming the way we deploy and integrate with the Joint force through the Air Force Force Generation Model, or AFFORGEN. This has been a concept and model that’s been in development for the past couple of years. AFFORGEN goes to its initial operational capability in just a couple of weeks on the 1st of October, with a predictable four-bin model: prepare, ready, available to commit, and reset. Designed to balance combatant command requirements with building high-end readiness, AFFORGEN is about better articulating impacts to future readiness and driving strategic discipline and addressing the global demand for air force capabilities.

I’m serious about agile combat employment, because the way we deployed our forces to established and static bases over the past several decades will not work against the advancing threat. ACE is a means of maneuver to increase survivability while generating and projecting airpower; versus dispersing our capability on airfields, ACE is dispersing our capability across airfields. ACE requires us to be lighter, leaner, and more agile.

As I’ve had the opportunity to visit bases across our Air Force, I’ve seen the progress we’ve made, but we must continue to develop and refine capabilities that are important to ACE: command and control, logistics under attack, resilient basing, air and missile defense, just to name a few. As we embrace ACE, we must all be multi-capable Airmen. It’s not a checklist of qualifications, it’s a mindset and technical competency that when things hit the fan, our Airmen are ready.

Multi-capable Airmen is about crushing bureaucratic hurdles and functional union cards that could be holding back the immense talent and innovative ideas and thoughts of our Airmen. It comes down to being ready. We are employing ACE. Multi-capable airmen will be expected to accomplish tasks outside their core specialty. Multi-capable Airmen will ensure we are the more agile and lethal force that we can be, able to create increasing dilemmas for our adversaries.

As part of their Joint force, we will train like we fight, moving to a wing A-staff construct. We may be moving at different paces across our MAJCOMs, but we’re moving, nonetheless. Our wings need to support rapid decision-making, maximize responsiveness for crisis and day-to-day operations. When we’re organizing our wings to an A-staff construct, we align from the headquarters of the Air Force all the way down to the wing level; organizing to an A-staff for most professional development, so our Airmen and airpower are better prepared to plug in to a Joint team. Mission command, force generation, agile combat employment, and the wing A-staff construct: these are the concepts we must accelerate to drive culture change.

Airpower is dependent on the potential of our Airmen, industry, and academia to innovate, a potential which is not limited to technology but includes using current technology and capabilities in new ways. We cannot simply view new, big, or expensive technology leaves as the only way to innovate. We must harness any innovation that can put meaningful capability into the hands of our war fighters. We can’t let perfect be the enemy of good enough and get in the way of [minimal] viable product. We must deploy, employ, and iterate, but we must have the right talent to be effective.

Our Airmen, the ones sitting in this room, the ones getting the J-O-B done every day, at every base across our Air Force, our Active Duty members, Guard, Reserve, and civilian, and our vast and incredible partners in industry and academia, you the heart of our innovation. And I’m constantly reminded, each of you drive the potential of our technology and the potential of our ideas. Both are unlimited, but our resources and timelines to provide credible combat power and capability are not. We’ll need to have strategic conversations that make difficult choices to drive change and to solve our toughest problems, and make sure our seven operational imperative become a reality. These are the changes we need and the key areas we must modernize to have a credible combat force. And when we put all these pieces together across domains and services, inter-agency, industry, academia, and with our allies and partners, we can assure and deter. We can have integrated deterrence. And we can have airpower anytime, anywhere, should the deterrence fail.

In closing, every day when I come into the Pentagon, I come in through the river entrance. And just before I get to the top of the stairs, I pass the painting by Robert Emerson Bell entitled ‘Wings Through Time.’ The painting was done for the 50th anniversary of our Air Force. It visually depicts every airplane related to the history of the Air Force since the Wright flyer. This painting is instructive, showing the large number of aircraft built early in our history. Between 1944 and 1984, on average, we produced a new fighter every two and a half years, a new mobility platform every year and a half. It’s clear from our history, our Air Force and our nation already know how to accelerate change.

Now, if we could extend that painting to today, our 75th anniversary, you’d only see the addition of three fighters and two mobility aircraft. This painting is a visible reminder that we’ve done this before, but our future is not guaranteed. Together, we must plan and build for the future, with full acknowledgement that we must collaborate, accelerate and innovate so our Air Force can continue to thrive for the next 75.

As I reflect on the words from Gen. Hap Arnold, I know we can and we must create the force we need for the future. We must be modern, with the capabilities and capacity that would outpace the threat, now and well into the future. We must be thoroughly trained, recognizing the changing trends in the character of warfare. And we must do this together, one team, one fight, because a strong Air Force will not alone be sufficient, but without it, there will be no national security. Last year, I told you I didn’t believe in impossible. This year, I’m going to tell you, our airmen don’t either. We have done this before. We will do it again. Happy 75th, Air Force.

Air Force Personnel, Aircraft in Florida Evacuate Ahead of Hurricane Ian

Air Force Personnel, Aircraft in Florida Evacuate Ahead of Hurricane Ian

Non-mission essential personnel have been ordered to evacuate MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., by noon of Sept. 27, and aircraft are being flown out of the base as Hurricane Ian gathers strength and threatens to hit Florida later this week.

Elsewhere on Florida’s Gulf coast, officials at Eglin Air Force Base plan to evacuate fighter and trainer aircraft on Sept. 27, and other USAF bases in the region remain on heightened alert in advance of the storm’s arrival.

MacDill, located in the Tampa Bay region, hosts the headquarters of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command, as well as KC-135s as part of the 6th Aerial Refueling Wing, and U.S. Army UH-60s. Most of those aircraft are being evacuated, an Air Force spokeswoman told Air & Space Forces Magazine. The KC-135 aircraft that are leaving are going to either Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash., or Bangor Air National Guard Base, Maine.

“Our fleet of KC-135s Stratotankers are a strategic national asset. We will continue to protect them and the service members who ensure their success,” Col. Adam D. Bingham, commander of the 6th ARW, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, officials at Eglin Air Force Base are planning to fly their F-35s to Barksdale Air Force Base, La., and their F-22s and T-38s to Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala., on Sept. 27, an Air Force spokeswoman said.

Both MacDill and Eglin have evacuated aircraft in advance of storms before. In 2021, MacDill sent its KC-135s to McConnell Air Force Base, Kan., in anticipation of Tropical Storm Elsa. In 2004, Eglin evacuated fighters in advance of Hurricane Ivan.

But while Eglin leaders have not yet ordered an evacuation of personnel, Bingham made the decision for a limited evacuation of MacDill, which lies entirely within Evacuation Zone A, on Sept. 6.

The order includes service members, civilian employees, and their dependents who live in areas designated Evacuation Zone A in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Pinellas counties. In addition, those who reside in Zone B in those counties, as well as residents of Zone C in Pinellas County, can also evacuate and receive reimbursements for their travel.

Another evacuation order for those in Zones A, B, and C in Pasco County will take effect at 8 a.m. Sept. 27.

“To ensure mission-essential personnel are available for base preparations, military members and base civilian employees must receive approval for departure from their chain of command via supervisory channels,” according to a post to MacDill’s official Facebook page. Commanders are being instructed to release non-mission essential personnel as quickly as possible.

As of 2 p.m. Sept. 26, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast for Ian shows it becoming a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, Sept. 27, and potentially making landfall in central Florida by 8 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 29.

Local and state officials are warning residents to prepare for high winds, heavy rain, and a storm surge along the coast. The Tampa Bay region in particular, where MacDill is located, is bracing for impact, though there is still uncertainty about the storm’s path.

MacDill is currently at Hurricane Condition Level 3, according to its website, meaning destructive winds in excess of 58 miles per hour are possible within 48 hours.

Eglin Air Force Base, along with Hurlburt Field, is currently at HURCON 5, meaning destructive winds could arrive within 96 hours. Tyndall Air Force Base is at HURCON 4, meaning such winds are possible within 72 hours.

For Tyndall in particular, the threat of a storm comes as the base is still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Michael in 2018. The Category 5 storm inflicted what officials called “catastrophic damage” on the base, severely damaging or destroying 95 percent of the base’s 1,300 structures, requiring several billion dollars’ worth of remediation.

Burt: Space Force Needs to ‘Get Out of Our Own Way,’ Enable Companies Instead

Burt: Space Force Needs to ‘Get Out of Our Own Way,’ Enable Companies Instead

Unlike nearly every other innovative technology throughout history, Maj. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt believes the space enterprise emerged backward.

“Every other domain started with an entrepreneur who built something,” Burt, the special assistant to the Chief of Space Operations, said in a panel discussion Sept. 21 at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

“Henry Ford builds a car; we put armor on it and it becomes a tank. Orville and Wilbur fly an airplane. In World War I, we realize we can conduct ISR, put guns, drop bombs from it,” Burt said.

It is time for the scenario to shift 180 degrees, Burt told the audience. 

“Industry is doing the things we need to do. We have to figure out how to get out of our own way and enable them, and help them,” Burt said. 

 As director of the Defense Innovation Unit’s space portfolio, panelist Steven J. Butrow oversees the Pentagon agency’s effort to foster contracting relationships that address national security issues.  

“The future is space-enabled and software-defined,” Butrow told the audience. “That’s why we created the Space Force. That’s why we should be embracing and supporting a vibrant commercial space industrial base.”

While the U.S. led the way in developing innovations such as the modern internet and electrification of automobiles, panelist Chris Kemp told the audience that the nation has let down its guard in one key technology.

“We had the opportunity to lead the world with drones—autonomous flying technology,” said Kemp, who founded and heads Astra, a California-based space technology firm. 

Turning around the trend in drones and ensuring it does not happen in other areas, Kemp said, is reachable.

“All you in this room have the power to drive the changes in procuring solutions and services by simply buying the data from the companies before you,” Kemp said. “If you do, America will lead the world in space for the next decade.”

Panelist Marc Bell, founder and chief executive officer of Terran Orbital, is encouraged by the space community’s overall willingness to adapt to change. His company is building software-defined synthetic aperture radar, which can reconstruct two- and three-dimensional images. The Defense Department, and USSF in particular, have demonstrated a willingness to buy such a product rather than embark on building one from scratch, he said. 

“It’s a way the industry is changing, and the DOD and Space Force are changing with it,” Bell said. 

Russia Increasing ‘Very Concerning’ Behavior in Syria, AFCENT Commander Says

Russia Increasing ‘Very Concerning’ Behavior in Syria, AFCENT Commander Says

The Russian Air Force has become “more aggressive” in Syria as tensions have risen over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the top Air Force general for the Middle East said.

“There’s always a concern,” the commander of Air Forces Central Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The U.S. and Russian militaries have operated in an uneasy coexistence in Syria since the Kremlin sent forces there in 2015 to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

But in recent months, Russian transport planes have flown near Al-Tanf Garrison in southeast Syria—where U.S. troops have been working with Syrian fighters battling ISIS militants—without notifying American commanders as done in the past, Grynkewich said at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference on Sept. 19.

There is “a disregard for our presence at Al-Tanf,” Grynkewich said. “They would at least give us a phone call. They stopped giving us that phone call now.”

Russian aircraft have also flown into eastern Syria, where U.S. forces have been partnering with Syrian fighters who are battling ISIS. Russian combat aircraft have been in both areas.

Grynkewich, who took command July 21, said Russia’s more aggressive posture appears to stem from the arrival of Russian commanders who had been involved in Moscow’s troubled invasion of Ukraine and are trying to make up for their poor performance there. “To me, it’s very, very concerning. I believe that some of those Russian leaders are trying to rebuild their reputation.”

The U.S. military operates in Syria with its Syrian partners as part of Operation Inherent Resolve. While ISIS’s physical caliphate has been destroyed, remnants of the group are trying to make a comeback.

Russia and the U.S have maintained a deconfliction communications line to prevent an inadvertent confrontation between the two sides. U.S. aircraft have flown into areas that have been generally controlled by the Russians, but they have done so in pursuit of ISIS militants and after notifying Russian commanders.

“The qualitative difference to me is, when we go into airspace, we always give them the heads up,” he said. “And then we’re doing it for the purposes of defeating ISIS … The Russians come back at us, and, as far as we can tell, there is nothing that they’re doing qualitatively against ISIS when they come into those spaces.”

A U.S. Navy F/A-18 shot down a Syrian Su-22 in June 2017, but U.S. and Russian aircraft have never clashed. U.S. air and ground forces pummeled Russian mercenaries who threatened U.S. forces and the Syrian SDF fighters they were working with in February 2018, killing several hundred. Russian commanders insisted they were not aware of the operation but later asked permission to retrieve the bodies.

When Russian aircraft enter what the U.S. regards as its airspace, American warplanes intercept them.

“We are not here to escalate. We are not here to make the situation worse than it is,” Grynkewich said. “But we do have an obligation to be in a location where we can monitor the Russian behavior, so we close within several miles. We monitor their behavior as they go through the airspace and ensure that they’re not going to be a threat to our forces.”

Air Force Recruiting Ends 2022 With a ‘Dead-Stick Landing,’ Starts 2023 Behind Schedule

Air Force Recruiting Ends 2022 With a ‘Dead-Stick Landing,’ Starts 2023 Behind Schedule

A year ago, Air Force leaders were celebrating an unusually successful year in recruiting. For the first time in more than half a decade, the Air Force Recruiting Service was on pace to hit all of its goals—Active Duty, Reserve, Guard, and Space Force. 

Twelve months later, and the picture could hardly look more different. AFRS gritted out the ending to fiscal 2022, barely reaching its goal for the Active-duty Air Force and missing goals for the Reserve and Guard by some 1,500 to 2,000 recruits each.

And while commander Maj. Gen. Edward W. Thomas Jr. said during AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference that 2022 was a “perfect storm” of recruiting challenges and the toughest environment the Air Force has faced since 1999, he also acknowledged that 2023 won’t be easy, either, as his team is set to start the year with less of a cushion than it is used to.

“I would say that we’re doing a dead-stick landing as we come into the end of fiscal year ‘22,” Thomas said. “So dead-stick landing as we hit the 30th of September, and we’re going to need to turn around on the first of October and do an afterburner takeoff. We’re going to be starting fiscal year ‘23 behind about 5,000 recruits on the Active-duty side alone. We usually start with what we call a bank or starting pool of about 25 to 27 percent. That bank’s down to about 10 percent.”

That “bank” consists of recruits who are simply waiting to ship out.

Perfect Storm of 2022

In seeking to explain how the recruiting environment took such a dramatic turn for the worse, Thomas pointed to both long-term trends and short-term issues that challenged the Air Force in 2022.

On the long-term side, continued declines in both eligibility and propensity to serve among America’s youth, as well as declining familiarity with the military, “has been a math problem coming at us for a while,” Thomas said.

There’s also a growing trend of discontent with the military among more politically conservative communities who feel the Pentagon has prioritized so-called “woke” priorities of diversity and inclusion over readiness and lethality.

The discontent is real, Thomas said, citing surveys showing military parents have become less likely to recommend service to their children. But the concerns are not accurate, he insisted.

“I would say there is a significant misunderstanding of what’s going on inside of the military today. While there are some things that have changed, the basic principles, life, concept, values of the military is what it has been for decades,” Thomas said. “So how do we counter that? We go back to values—who we are, what we believe in, the value of the individual, the value of service, how we treat people, dignity and respect.

While those long-term challenges will persist, Thomas expressed guarded optimism that some factors will be more temporary.

For one, the need to scale back in-person recruiting due to the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll—“two years of not being in schools, two years of not being in public spaces, two classes of high school students,” as he put it. 

AFRS has returned to schools and public events, but its workforce also needs to adjust, Thomas said. Seventy percent of recruiters started after the pandemic began, meaning they just don’t have much experience with in-person recruiting.

Another issue has been the labor market, as unemployment stays low and competition for workers remains fierce.

“The battle for talent has been intense. And it hasn’t just been within DOD—it’s been Amazon; it has been Google; it’s been Starbucks. It’s been American enterprises looking for good employees, good recruits,” Thomas said.

Such a dynamic is particularly bad for the Guard and Reserve, Thomas said.

“It affects them in that non-prior service, those that have never served in the military are a little less likely to come to the Guard and Reserve because they’ve got a lot of job opportunities knocking at their door,” Thomas said.

“Now at the same time, the Reserve depends on being able to gain 70 percent of their force being already trained, experienced military members that are leaving the Active service. Well, those numbers leaving the Active service, they also have a tremendous amount of job opportunities knocking on their door, so they’re less likely to convert and stay blue, if you will.”

Finally, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III’s decision to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine has played a role as well, Thomas said, again disproportionately affecting the Guard and Reserve.

“For those that are looking at a part-time opportunity, if the vaccination is going to be an issue for them, it’s going to likely play larger in their calculus than somebody considering a full-time career option in the Active forces,” Thomas said.

While AFRS does not have data that directly shows the impact of the vaccine mandate, Thomas said, it has looked at states with lower vaccination rates and seen a corresponding dip in recruiting numbers.

Changes

Up until recently, it was far from certain that AFRS would meet its Active-duty goal in 2022, Thomas said. And 2023 is already shaping up to be difficult as well. 

In looking to combat that, Thomas has a few tools he can use. 

One is initial enlistment bonuses. The Air Force boosted its IEBs twice in 2022, expanding them to different career fields.

The service is also looking to expand the pool of eligible recruits. Pentagon surveys have shown that just 23 percent of the target population is currently eligible due to issues such as medical conditions, drug use, out-of-regulation tattoos, and law violations. 

While reiterating that he had no intention of compromising on warfighting standards, Thomas outlined several ways that eligibility can be expanded.

“A year or two ago, frankly, we could afford to lose people around the margins because of finger tattoos, because of certain medical conditions that we weren’t willing to take risk on. We are in an environment today that we have to be exceptionally smart in how we assess the risk and how we set our accession criteria,” Thomas said.

The Air Force and Space Force’s tattoo policies have changed recently, giving Thomas and other recruiting leaders the authority to approve waivers for smaller hand tattoos. Thomas claimed he has personally approved hundreds of tattoos after reviewing them via pictures on his smartphone, and all told, roughly 1,000 have been OK’d.

For medical conditions, the decision to approve waivers is more data-driven.

“Now that we do all of our medical accessions together, we’re able to have much better data to be able to make outcome-based medical decisions on who we bring in and who we don’t,” Thomas said. “For instance, … if you look at issues like mental health conditions, anxiety, eczema, asthma—I have all issues—we’ve been able to turn up the dial on who we’ve been able to waiver and bring into the Air Force by 30 percent or more in some of those categories, simply by having the data to be able to go, if we accept this level, what’s the likely attrition? What’s the effect on attrition? What’s the effect on deployability? What’s the effect on medical cost, lost duty days? And we’re able to follow the data to be able to make better decisions.”

Early Focus on End Product Led to Hypersonic Missile Contract Win, Industry Officials Say

Early Focus on End Product Led to Hypersonic Missile Contract Win, Industry Officials Say

Aiming to build a usable system throughout the experimental and prototyping phase of the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile program led to Raytheon and Northrop Grumman’s win of the contract, company officials told reporters Sept. 23. The partners have already invested in production capacity in 14 states, they said.

The Raytheon-led team focused “on developing an operational prototype at the start of the program versus just developing a demonstrator,” Raytheon Missile & Defense’s John Otto, senior director of advanced hypersonic weapons, told reporters on a Zoom call the day after the Air Force awarded the team a $985 million contract to develop the scramjet-powered weapon.

“The important distinction” between Raytheon and its HACM competitors Lockheed Martin and Boeing was the “traceability of what you’re demonstrating earlier in the program and how it relates to what you ultimately want to field,” Otto said. “And I think it’s taking that prototype development approach that really allows us to move out faster and get systems delivered to the field faster.”

The team skipped using “expedient hardware” and remained “focused at the start on what the system is going to be at the end … so you don’t have to leave more work for later on in the program.”

Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon competed for the HACM under a 15-month Air Force program run in partnership with the Royal Australian Air Force. Simultaneously, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin were conducted scramjet-powered missile development work under an Air Force/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency effort called HAWC, for Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept.  

Otto said Raytheon sought “as much commonality in the demonstration vehicle” as possible to the final product. With that approach, “I think you’re setting yourself up in multiple ways to be more successful.” The technical data collected are “going to be more relevant to what you’re ultimately going to field. You’re going to have a better understanding of what your system can do, operationally.” This approach will “allow us to get out in the field quickly.”

The HACM is supposed to be available for operations in about 2027.

Northrop Grumman’s advanced propulsion and controls director, Chris Gettinger, said the team tried to make their missile “as close to the tactical prototype as we could get.” What’s left to do now is “focus more on the affordability aspects and the manufacturing aspects as we move forward.” There will be no need now to “reinvent or redesign the wheel.” Gettinger said the HACM builds on hypersonic research efforts under the X-43 and X-51 programs—“but taken it to a new and revolutionary level.”  

Northrop Grumman’s scramjet technology is “a necessary step in restoring and sustaining overmatch,” Gettinger said. It opens “a new era of faster, more survivable, highly capable weapons.” The scramjet not only advances the speed of missiles but “also leads to a smaller form factor … which really offers more capability and means that platforms can carry more weapons in less space.”

However, the scramjet is “only half the problem,” he said, and Northrop Grumman has “invested a lot in increased manufacturing capacity and a robust supply chain, which we’ve seen is key to enabling our nation’s need for cost-effective hypersonic weapons production.” The companies have invested in “facilities and capacity to produce weapons affordably, and at scale, and to make sure we can deliver that to the field quickly,” he said.

Gettinger said the two companies will be producing HACM components “at facilities across 14 states.” For Northrop Grumman, the major location will be “our hypersonic capability center in Elkton, Md., where we’re … expanding and then building a new large factory space to support production of these systems, at rate, and affordably.”

Asked to differentiate between the challenges of building air-breathing hypersonic craft and boost-glide systems, Otto said boost-glide systems move at speeds “significantly greater” and thus need more “exotic materials and design solutions.” An air-breathing system, however, “allows you to go with more readily available, or less-exotic materials and design solutions,” resulting in fewer challenges and allowing development to proceed more quickly.  

The HACM technology also lays the groundwork for “adoption of hypersonic, air-breathing vehicles across a broader spectrum of applications,” Gettinger said.

The contract calls for the a development program that will design, develop, and test a missile for the Air Force with some assets left over that can be used operationally.

The performance of the HACM, and even its size, have not yet been released. It’s expected that the F-15E/EX will be the threshold aircraft to carry the HACM.

Otto wouldn’t comment on how the HACM and HAWC are similar or different, saying the Air Force alone can disclose such information.

In addition to the technology partnership, Australia will allow the HACM to be tested over its territory.

Acquisition Inflation Being Managed on a Case-by-Case Basis, Hunter Says

Acquisition Inflation Being Managed on a Case-by-Case Basis, Hunter Says

Despite inflation at levels not seen in decades, Air Force primes have yet to demand major adjustments to existing contracts, but there are concerns about lower-tier vendors, Air Force service acquisition executive Andrew P. Hunter said.

Speaking with reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference, Hunter said the structure of contracts usually means the company “has to make a request” for inflation adjustments.

“The contractor has to come forward and say, ‘These are the costs that we are seeing—we need some kind of adjustment,’” he said. But “we haven’t had much of that … yet.”

The Air Force is also not planning a large “across-the-board, everyone-gets-an-adjustment” action, because each contract is unique, and inflation is affecting various programs and companies differently.

“Not everyone has been impacted in the same way. … The impacts are pretty broad, but they’re not the same magnitude for everyone,” he said.

“The issue is fixed-price contracts,” Hunter continued. While such agreements usually compel the vendor to absorb inflation losses, there may be ways to mitigate them, depending on the needs of the service and other factors, he said.

The Federal Acquisition Regulations were “developed in the 1960s and ‘70s, when there was a lot of inflation, so mechanisms exist to deal with this,” he said.

Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William A. LaPlante will issue guidance for all the military services to “try to understand how” to reply “should those requests come about and what are the natural channels that exist” to deal with them. LaPlante’s guidance will tell contractors, “this is how you ask us.”

Hunter acknowledged that for those “high dollar value” contracts still in negotiation, “we do see that there are higher dollar values than we anticipated.”

In all cases, the Air Force will have to work to ensure that “the costs that are being cited to us are supported by the data.”

Hunter said the Air Force does not have direct visibility into the health of subcontractors, especially at the lowest level of supply, and so is paying close attention to what is being said at industry days, through trade associations “that focus on the supply chain” and through small business advocates.

“We are listening carefully,” he said. “We” and Air Force Materiel Command “have our ear to the ground.”

But primes are also being reminded that they are “responsible for their subs; that’s a big part of what they get paid to do,” Hunter noted.

“We are … instructing the primes that they need to assure that their supply chain is going to be able to deliver,” he said. “If there are companies at risk because of inflation, you need to identify that and look at ways to mitigate that.”

Hunter said the Air Force has noticed that for some products and components, “we … are starting to see substantial lead times to get things; much longer than is typical.” Consequently, “we may have to identify alternatives to meet program schedules.”

Raytheon Wins Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile Contract

Raytheon Wins Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile Contract

The Air Force has awarded Raytheon Missiles & Defense a $985.3 million cost-plus-fixed fee contract to develop and build the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, an air-breathing cruise missile intended to launched from fighter-sized aircraft. Raytheon bested teams led by Lockheed Martin and Boeing for the work.

The Air Force said it expects the program to yield an operational missile by 2027. Northrop Grumman developed the Raytheon missile’s scramjet engine.

The contract carries Raytheon through weapon system design and development and the initial delivery of HACM test articles.

The HACM “is an air-launched, scramjet-powered hypersonic weapon designed to hold high-value targets at risk in contested environments from standoff distances,” the Air Force said.

In 2020, the Air Force entered into a technology partnership with Australia known as SCIFiRE (Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment) to jointly research hypersonic missile prototypes, leveraging knowledge in the two countries. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon received 15-month SCIFiRE contracts in June 2021 to complete preliminary designs of a hypersonic cruise missile, which became HACM.

Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are also, separately, pursuing air-breathing hypersonic missile work under HAWC (Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept), a joint program between the Air Force and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

In the HACM program, an informed source said Raytheon’s approach of working toward “an operational missile from the beginning” was a winning strategy.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said in the Air Force statement that the HACM is a “powerful example of developing and integrating combat capabilities alongside our partners from the beginning.” The HACM will “provide our commanders with tactical flexibility to employ fighters to hold high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk while maintaining bombers for other strategic targets.”

The contract will “operationalize the Raytheon SCIFiRE prototype design for fighter aircraft integration and deliver two leave-behind assets with operational utility,” USAF said.  

Andrew Hunter, Air Force acquisition executive, said the U.S. has “over a decade of cooperation” with Australia on hypersonic technology, “and now we will bring that shared knowledge to bear to address urgent national defense requirements.”

Collaboration between the two countries will continue in HACM design and development, “including using Australian test infrastructure for the initial all-up round flight tests,” the Air Force said.

The Royal Australian Air Force’s Air Vice-Marshal Robert Denney, head of air force capability, said SCIFiRE “demonstrates our commitment with the U.S. to strengthen capability outcomes, deepen our alliance and strengthen our cooperation as we meet emerging challenges and support regional endeavors.”

The HACM is one of two Air Force hypersonic missile programs. The AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARRW, is a tactical boost glide weapon—not air-breathing—that has had a spotty test record in recent years. It is intended to be carried on large platforms such as the B-52 bomber, whereas the HACM is expected to be launched from the F-15 as the initial platform. With an air-breathing motor, the HACM is also potentially a longer-ranged weapon than the ARRW. The performance of the two missiles is classified.

The Air Force said in July that it and DARPA expect to continue with the HAWC program, despite the selection of a HACM prime. The service said further research on HAWC may inform development of the HACM.

The Raytheon HAWC flew successfully in July, following a successful test in September 2021. The Lockheed Martin HAWC—with an engine developed by Aerojet—flew successfully in March.