Air Force Recruiting Ends 2022 With a ‘Dead-Stick Landing,’ Starts 2023 Behind Schedule

Sept. 23, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

A year ago, Air Force leaders were celebrating an unusually successful year in recruiting. For the first time in more than half a decade, the Air Force Recruiting Service was on pace to hit all of its goals—Active Duty, Reserve, Guard, and Space Force.

Twelve months later, and the picture could hardly look more different. AFRS gritted out the ending to fiscal 2022, barely reaching its goal for the Active-duty Air Force and missing goals for the Reserve and Guard by some 1,500 to 2,000 recruits each.

And while commander Maj. Gen. Edward W. Thomas Jr. said during AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference that 2022 was a “perfect storm” of recruiting challenges and the toughest environment the Air Force has faced since 1999, he also acknowledged that 2023 won’t be easy, either, as his team is set to start the year with less of a cushion than it is used to.

“I would say that we’re doing a dead-stick landing as we come into the end of fiscal year ‘22,” Thomas said. “So dead-stick landing as we hit the 30th of September, and we’re going to need to turn around on the first of October and do an afterburner takeoff. We’re going to be starting fiscal year ‘23 behind about 5,000 recruits on the Active-duty side alone. We usually start with what we call a bank or starting pool of about 25 to 27 percent. That bank’s down to about 10 percent.”

That “bank” consists of recruits who are simply waiting to ship out.

Perfect Storm of 2022

In seeking to explain how the recruiting environment took such a dramatic turn for the worse, Thomas pointed to both long-term trends and short-term issues that challenged the Air Force in 2022.

On the long-term side, continued declines in both eligibility and propensity to serve among America’s youth, as well as declining familiarity with the military, “has been a math problem coming at us for a while,” Thomas said.

There’s also a growing trend of discontent with the military among more politically conservative communities who feel the Pentagon has prioritized so-called “woke” priorities of diversity and inclusion over readiness and lethality.

The discontent is real, Thomas said, citing surveys showing military parents have become less likely to recommend service to their children. But the concerns are not accurate, he insisted.

“I would say there is a significant misunderstanding of what’s going on inside of the military today. While there are some things that have changed, the basic principles, life, concept, values of the military is what it has been for decades,” Thomas said. “So how do we counter that? We go back to values—who we are, what we believe in, the value of the individual, the value of service, how we treat people, dignity and respect.

While those long-term challenges will persist, Thomas expressed guarded optimism that some factors will be more temporary.

For one, the need to scale back in-person recruiting due to the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll—“two years of not being in schools, two years of not being in public spaces, two classes of high school students,” as he put it.

AFRS has returned to schools and public events, but its workforce also needs to adjust, Thomas said. Seventy percent of recruiters started after the pandemic began, meaning they just don’t have much experience with in-person recruiting.

Another issue has been the labor market, as unemployment stays low and competition for workers remains fierce.

“The battle for talent has been intense. And it hasn’t just been within DOD—it’s been Amazon; it has been Google; it’s been Starbucks. It’s been American enterprises looking for good employees, good recruits,” Thomas said.

Such a dynamic is particularly bad for the Guard and Reserve, Thomas said.

“It affects them in that non-prior service, those that have never served in the military are a little less likely to come to the Guard and Reserve because they’ve got a lot of job opportunities knocking at their door,” Thomas said.

“Now at the same time, the Reserve depends on being able to gain 70 percent of their force being already trained, experienced military members that are leaving the Active service. Well, those numbers leaving the Active service, they also have a tremendous amount of job opportunities knocking on their door, so they’re less likely to convert and stay blue, if you will.”

Finally, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III’s decision to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine has played a role as well, Thomas said, again disproportionately affecting the Guard and Reserve.

“For those that are looking at a part-time opportunity, if the vaccination is going to be an issue for them, it’s going to likely play larger in their calculus than somebody considering a full-time career option in the Active forces,” Thomas said.

While AFRS does not have data that directly shows the impact of the vaccine mandate, Thomas said, it has looked at states with lower vaccination rates and seen a corresponding dip in recruiting numbers.

Changes

Up until recently, it was far from certain that AFRS would meet its Active-duty goal in 2022, Thomas said. And 2023 is already shaping up to be difficult as well.

In looking to combat that, Thomas has a few tools he can use.

One is initial enlistment bonuses. The Air Force boosted its IEBs twice in 2022, expanding them to different career fields.

The service is also looking to expand the pool of eligible recruits. Pentagon surveys have shown that just 23 percent of the target population is currently eligible due to issues such as medical conditions, drug use, out-of-regulation tattoos, and law violations.

While reiterating that he had no intention of compromising on warfighting standards, Thomas outlined several ways that eligibility can be expanded.

“A year or two ago, frankly, we could afford to lose people around the margins because of finger tattoos, because of certain medical conditions that we weren’t willing to take risk on. We are in an environment today that we have to be exceptionally smart in how we assess the risk and how we set our accession criteria,” Thomas said.

The Air Force and Space Force’s tattoo policies have changed recently, giving Thomas and other recruiting leaders the authority to approve waivers for smaller hand tattoos. Thomas claimed he has personally approved hundreds of tattoos after reviewing them via pictures on his smartphone, and all told, roughly 1,000 have been OK’d.

For medical conditions, the decision to approve waivers is more data-driven.

“Now that we do all of our medical accessions together, we’re able to have much better data to be able to make outcome-based medical decisions on who we bring in and who we don’t,” Thomas said. “For instance, … if you look at issues like mental health conditions, anxiety, eczema, asthma—I have all issues—we’ve been able to turn up the dial on who we’ve been able to waiver and bring into the Air Force by 30 percent or more in some of those categories, simply by having the data to be able to go, if we accept this level, what’s the likely attrition? What’s the effect on attrition? What’s the effect on deployability? What’s the effect on medical cost, lost duty days? And we’re able to follow the data to be able to make better decisions.”

Early Focus on End Product Led to Hypersonic Missile Contract Win, Industry Officials Say

Sept. 23, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Aiming to build a usable system throughout the experimental and prototyping phase of the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile program led to Raytheon and Northrop Grumman’s win of the contract, company officials told reporters Sept. 23. The partners have already invested in production capacity in 14 states, they said.

The Raytheon-led team focused “on developing an operational prototype at the start of the program versus just developing a demonstrator,” Raytheon Missile & Defense’s John Otto, senior director of advanced hypersonic weapons, told reporters on a Zoom call the day after the Air Force awarded the team a $985 million contract to develop the scramjet-powered weapon.

“The important distinction” between Raytheon and its HACM competitors Lockheed Martin and Boeing was the “traceability of what you’re demonstrating earlier in the program and how it relates to what you ultimately want to field,” Otto said. “And I think it’s taking that prototype development approach that really allows us to move out faster and get systems delivered to the field faster.”

The team skipped using “expedient hardware” and remained “focused at the start on what the system is going to be at the end … so you don’t have to leave more work for later on in the program.”

Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon competed for the HACM under a 15-month Air Force program run in partnership with the Royal Australian Air Force. Simultaneously, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin were conducted scramjet-powered missile development work under an Air Force/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency effort called HAWC, for Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept.

Otto said Raytheon sought “as much commonality in the demonstration vehicle” as possible to the final product. With that approach, “I think you’re setting yourself up in multiple ways to be more successful.” The technical data collected are “going to be more relevant to what you’re ultimately going to field. You’re going to have a better understanding of what your system can do, operationally.” This approach will “allow us to get out in the field quickly.”

The HACM is supposed to be available for operations in about 2027.

Northrop Grumman’s advanced propulsion and controls director, Chris Gettinger, said the team tried to make their missile “as close to the tactical prototype as we could get.” What’s left to do now is “focus more on the affordability aspects and the manufacturing aspects as we move forward.” There will be no need now to “reinvent or redesign the wheel.” Gettinger said the HACM builds on hypersonic research efforts under the X-43 and X-51 programs—“but taken it to a new and revolutionary level.”

Northrop Grumman’s scramjet technology is “a necessary step in restoring and sustaining overmatch,” Gettinger said. It opens “a new era of faster, more survivable, highly capable weapons.” The scramjet not only advances the speed of missiles but “also leads to a smaller form factor … which really offers more capability and means that platforms can carry more weapons in less space.”

However, the scramjet is “only half the problem,” he said, and Northrop Grumman has “invested a lot in increased manufacturing capacity and a robust supply chain, which we’ve seen is key to enabling our nation’s need for cost-effective hypersonic weapons production.” The companies have invested in “facilities and capacity to produce weapons affordably, and at scale, and to make sure we can deliver that to the field quickly,” he said.

Gettinger said the two companies will be producing HACM components “at facilities across 14 states.” For Northrop Grumman, the major location will be “our hypersonic capability center in Elkton, Md., where we’re … expanding and then building a new large factory space to support production of these systems, at rate, and affordably.”

Asked to differentiate between the challenges of building air-breathing hypersonic craft and boost-glide systems, Otto said boost-glide systems move at speeds “significantly greater” and thus need more “exotic materials and design solutions.” An air-breathing system, however, “allows you to go with more readily available, or less-exotic materials and design solutions,” resulting in fewer challenges and allowing development to proceed more quickly.

The HACM technology also lays the groundwork for “adoption of hypersonic, air-breathing vehicles across a broader spectrum of applications,” Gettinger said.

The contract calls for the a development program that will design, develop, and test a missile for the Air Force with some assets left over that can be used operationally.

The performance of the HACM, and even its size, have not yet been released. It’s expected that the F-15E/EX will be the threshold aircraft to carry the HACM.

Otto wouldn’t comment on how the HACM and HAWC are similar or different, saying the Air Force alone can disclose such information.

In addition to the technology partnership, Australia will allow the HACM to be tested over its territory.

Acquisition Inflation Being Managed on a Case-by-Case Basis, Hunter Says

Sept. 23, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Despite inflation at levels not seen in decades, Air Force primes have yet to demand major adjustments to existing contracts, but there are concerns about lower-tier vendors, Air Force service acquisition executive Andrew P. Hunter said.

Speaking with reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference, Hunter said the structure of contracts usually means the company “has to make a request” for inflation adjustments.

“The contractor has to come forward and say, ‘These are the costs that we are seeing—we need some kind of adjustment,’” he said. But “we haven’t had much of that … yet.”

The Air Force is also not planning a large “across-the-board, everyone-gets-an-adjustment” action, because each contract is unique, and inflation is affecting various programs and companies differently.

“Not everyone has been impacted in the same way. … The impacts are pretty broad, but they’re not the same magnitude for everyone,” he said.

“The issue is fixed-price contracts,” Hunter continued. While such agreements usually compel the vendor to absorb inflation losses, there may be ways to mitigate them, depending on the needs of the service and other factors, he said.

The Federal Acquisition Regulations were “developed in the 1960s and ‘70s, when there was a lot of inflation, so mechanisms exist to deal with this,” he said.

Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William A. LaPlante will issue guidance for all the military services to “try to understand how” to reply “should those requests come about and what are the natural channels that exist” to deal with them. LaPlante’s guidance will tell contractors, “this is how you ask us.”

Hunter acknowledged that for those “high dollar value” contracts still in negotiation, “we do see that there are higher dollar values than we anticipated.”

In all cases, the Air Force will have to work to ensure that “the costs that are being cited to us are supported by the data.”

Hunter said the Air Force does not have direct visibility into the health of subcontractors, especially at the lowest level of supply, and so is paying close attention to what is being said at industry days, through trade associations “that focus on the supply chain” and through small business advocates.

“We are listening carefully,” he said. “We” and Air Force Materiel Command “have our ear to the ground.”

But primes are also being reminded that they are “responsible for their subs; that’s a big part of what they get paid to do,” Hunter noted.

“We are … instructing the primes that they need to assure that their supply chain is going to be able to deliver,” he said. “If there are companies at risk because of inflation, you need to identify that and look at ways to mitigate that.”

Hunter said the Air Force has noticed that for some products and components, “we … are starting to see substantial lead times to get things; much longer than is typical.” Consequently, “we may have to identify alternatives to meet program schedules.”

Raytheon Wins Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile Contract

Sept. 22, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force has awarded Raytheon Missiles & Defense a $985.3 million cost-plus-fixed fee contract to develop and build the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, an air-breathing cruise missile intended to launched from fighter-sized aircraft. Raytheon bested teams led by Lockheed Martin and Boeing for the work.

The Air Force said it expects the program to yield an operational missile by 2027. Northrop Grumman developed the Raytheon missile’s scramjet engine.

The contract carries Raytheon through weapon system design and development and the initial delivery of HACM test articles.

The HACM “is an air-launched, scramjet-powered hypersonic weapon designed to hold high-value targets at risk in contested environments from standoff distances,” the Air Force said.

In 2020, the Air Force entered into a technology partnership with Australia known as SCIFiRE (Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment) to jointly research hypersonic missile prototypes, leveraging knowledge in the two countries. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon received 15-month SCIFiRE contracts in June 2021 to complete preliminary designs of a hypersonic cruise missile, which became HACM.

Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are also, separately, pursuing air-breathing hypersonic missile work under HAWC (Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept), a joint program between the Air Force and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

In the HACM program, an informed source said Raytheon’s approach of working toward “an operational missile from the beginning” was a winning strategy.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said in the Air Force statement that the HACM is a “powerful example of developing and integrating combat capabilities alongside our partners from the beginning.” The HACM will “provide our commanders with tactical flexibility to employ fighters to hold high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk while maintaining bombers for other strategic targets.”

The contract will “operationalize the Raytheon SCIFiRE prototype design for fighter aircraft integration and deliver two leave-behind assets with operational utility,” USAF said.

Andrew Hunter, Air Force acquisition executive, said the U.S. has “over a decade of cooperation” with Australia on hypersonic technology, “and now we will bring that shared knowledge to bear to address urgent national defense requirements.”

Collaboration between the two countries will continue in HACM design and development, “including using Australian test infrastructure for the initial all-up round flight tests,” the Air Force said.

The Royal Australian Air Force’s Air Vice-Marshal Robert Denney, head of air force capability, said SCIFiRE “demonstrates our commitment with the U.S. to strengthen capability outcomes, deepen our alliance and strengthen our cooperation as we meet emerging challenges and support regional endeavors.”

The HACM is one of two Air Force hypersonic missile programs. The AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARRW, is a tactical boost glide weapon—not air-breathing—that has had a spotty test record in recent years. It is intended to be carried on large platforms such as the B-52 bomber, whereas the HACM is expected to be launched from the F-15 as the initial platform. With an air-breathing motor, the HACM is also potentially a longer-ranged weapon than the ARRW. The performance of the two missiles is classified.

The Air Force said in July that it and DARPA expect to continue with the HAWC program, despite the selection of a HACM prime. The service said further research on HAWC may inform development of the HACM.

The Raytheon HAWC flew successfully in July, following a successful test in September 2021. The Lockheed Martin HAWC—with an engine developed by Aerojet—flew successfully in March.

Top USAF, USSF Couples Talk About Military Families’ Quality of Life

Sept. 22, 2022 | By Nick Adde

Like the other senior-most Air Force and Space Force officers, enlisted members, and spouses, Mollie Raymond has been through the gauntlet of moves and deployments that military families experience.

As the wife of Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, she is constantly reminded of the responsibility and commitment to the well-being of Airmen and Guardians they have borne as a military couple.

Mollie Raymond took part in a panel discussion Sept. 21 at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference along with her husband; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. and his wife Sharene; Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass and her husband Rahn; and Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger Towberman and his wife, Rachel Rush.

Each iterated a common theme: The well-being of Airmen, Guardians, and their families is tantamount.

“This summer, Jay and I had the privilege to attend BMT [basic military training] graduation, and it was the first graduating class of Guardians,” Mollie Raymond told the audience.

Afterward, the Raymonds stayed to have photos taken with the families and the new graduates, who only months before had just finished high school—including a young woman.

“We were standing and having pictures with her family. Her little brother, who was about 10, looked up at Jay and said, ‘Please take care of my sister,’” she recounted.

“Please think of your Guardians and Airmen as your sister,” Mollie Raymond told the audience. “You can think of Jay and I as your grandma and grandpa.”

military families — Senior-most officer and enlisted members of the Air and Space Forces appearing at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Sept. 21, 2022, from left: Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman and Rachel Rush; Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond and wife Mollie; Sharene brown and husband Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; and Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass and husband Rahn. Staff photo.

Responding to questions by moderator Lt. Gen. Caroline M. Miller, the deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services, each panelist shared their perspective on quality-of-life issues that matter the most—with spouse employment, child care, and education at the top of the list.

While nobody could predict the COVID-19 pandemic, rise in inflation, and other worldly uncertainties that emerged over the past couple of years, Gen. Brown did address the efforts underway to ease the burdens Airmen and Guardians face. He also noted, however, that more needs to be done.

“We did make some adjustments to our housing allowance and basic allowance for subsistence, but that doesn’t do it all,” Gen. Brown said.

The Air Force is working with the Office of the Secretary of Defense to examine local rental markets, Gen. Brown said, to determine how quickly they’re changing and to formulate a more adaptable system of addressing changes.

“Just this past week, there’s been some engagement within OSD to take a look at some of our families—particularly those at the lower end of the pay scale,” Gen. Brown said. There is, he added, “a potential for a one-time outlay of money to help support those families, to really get them back on track.”

Meanwhile, Sharene Brown told the audience that Airmen and Guardians should take advantage of the resources already in place, such as the base Military Family Resource centers and MilitaryOneSource on the web.

“We have key spouses out there,” Sharene Brown said. “You just don’t know what kind of programs they might have available. Contact them. Get in touch with them. They might be trying to reach out to you.”

Sharene Brown also expressed encouragement about the Kinder Spot app pilot program, which would address the child care backlog by giving military families an avenue to sublet their spaces to other military families when they are not in use. The pilot is now underway, she said, at Luke, Davis-Monthan, Anacostia-Bolling, Andrews, MacDill, Maxwell, Malmstrom, Peterson, and Shriever Air Force and joint bases. The hope is the trial will provide leaders with enough information to implement the program department-wide.

“Bear with us while we roll this program out,” Sharene Brown said. “We want it to be in the right direction and not have to go back and make changes so that it would be correct.”

She also mentioned a home child care pilot program now underway in Hawaii, the national capital region, Norfolk, Va., San Antonio, and San Diego.

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass talked of the adjustments her husband Rahn, a retired Army first sergeant, had to make when he retired and transitioned into the role of military spouse.

“When I was deployed, you were raising our two girls, and they had ponytails on all sides of their heads,” the chief said, looking at her husband. “I also learned you guys ate at Pizza Hut a lot.”

Rahn Bass said he learned quickly to rely on female fellow spouses to take care of the girls’ hair. Jokes aside, he then stressed the importance of staying connected as a family.

“It just requires that honest conversation with your significant other and really knowing that individual. When that service member deploys and there are kids in the house, you are that relief,” he said. “Know each other’s strengths and weaknesses.”

As the husband of a psychiatric nurse, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger A. Towberman harbors no illusions that as important as his job is, it isn’t any more or less so than his wife Rachel Rush’s.

“It all begins with that understanding, and embracing that truth,” Towberman said. “We’re a team, and we do everything together. You find that equilibrium, that harmony, and I don’t know that they’ll ever be balanced. It’s crazy schedules [a nurse works], and we just get out of sync.”

It comes down to finding what Towberman called “perfect moments,” and “amplifying them.”

“We navigate this pretty well because, ultimately, we’re very candid and honest with each other,” Rush said. “We tell each other what works for us and what doesn’t. I think a lot of times people forget that each person has a unique mind, and that is a product of DNA and a lifetime of experiences good and bad.”

Finding someone to share peace and happiness in life, Rush said, is essential.

As the first top officer in the nation’s youngest service, Gen. Raymond told the audience the sheer newness alone creates a layer of stress on military families.

“We’re building new career paths, going to bases they may have never gone to before,” Gen. Raymond said.

Both he and his wife are working to mitigate the force’s overall anxieties by communicating. Both write monthly newsletters.

“Mollie’s get rave reviews. Mine is like, ‘delete.’ So if you want to read anything, read hers,” the general quipped.

Moving past the humor, Gen. Raymond noted that many of his military and civilian operators are on 24/7 shifts. Daycare becomes a significant problem, then. Capacity and the inability to hire workers is a nationwide problem, he said, adding that the situation at Peterson and Schriever Space Force Bases in Colorado is particularly challenging. And like the other services, finding and sustaining spouse employment weighs heavily. He hopes job fairs for both child care workers and spouses could help alleviate both issues.

Full context of these quality-of-life issues hit Gen. Raymond squarely, he said, when he pinned on his first star. He told the audience he wishes he had kept his family needs in mind earlier in his career.

“We moved five one-year moves in a row. We probably didn’t have to do that,” Gen. Raymond said. “There are ways we can help take care of your family and you still can have a spectacular career.

“I would just tell you,” the general said: “You’re allowed to take care of your family.”

Air National Guard Embraces ACE Amid Tensions in Europe, Pacific

Sept. 22, 2022 | By James C. Kitfield

When asked about the real-world demands driving the Air Force’s new agile combat employment doctrine, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, director of the Air National Guard, recalled Guard C-17 aircrew involved in 2021’s non-combat evacuation from Afghanistan, the largest such airlift in U.S. history. Once on the ground at a chaotic Kabul airport that was taking incoming fire, the C-17 initially taxied to the wrong side of the airfield. The need to complete the mission and relaunch was urgent, and the aircrew had no time to ask for permission from higher command.

“So the loadmaster took risks, calculated risks, and in just 55 minutes, he unloaded cargo that would normally take four hours to offload,” said Loh, speaking to reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “When I asked him how he did it, the loadmaster told me, ‘Sir, you don’t want to know what I had to do to get that job done.’ But I wanted to hear, because I can’t afford to have someone in the chain of command above him who would stifle that kind of ingenuity. The Afghan evacuation was kind of the ‘Wild West,’ but that is the culture we need to harness in the future.”

With the Russian army pummeling Ukraine in Europe, and China increasingly threatening its neighbor Taiwan militarily in the Indo-Pacific, the Air National Guard has embraced the culture of can-do innovation at the core of ACE.

“Air Force Chief of Staff General Charles Q. Brown Jr. has said we have to ‘accelerate change or lose,’ and that has led to a whole new mindset in the Air Guard,” Loh said. “We are getting after new ways of doing things that will make us more survivable in a contested environment.”

Members of the 119th Wing, North Dakota Air National Guard, calibrate the propeller of an MQ-9 for a pre-flight check at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, during Exercise Valiant Shield, May 27, 2022. Air National Guard photo by Airman First Class Christa Anderson.

Earlier this year, Vermont’s 158th Fighter Wing completed the National Guard’s first overseas deployment of the F-35A Lightning II, for instance. Just a week after arriving in Germany, it had fighters in the skies over the Baltics to reassure NATO allies nervous about Russia’s aggression next door in Ukraine.

In the Indo-Pacific, the Hawaii Air National Guard’s 199th Fighter Squadron has experimented with deploying its F-22A Raptors supported by just one pallet of parts and equipment that can be moved by a C-130 transport or even a Chinook helicopter. In June, two Air National Guard C-130s flew to Guam, picked up a Marine Corps High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System [HIMARS] rocket launcher, and transported it to another base for a simulated firing exercise before loading it back up and returning to Guam.

“We have multiple units doing really good work taking small teams of multi-capable airmen and moving them forward quickly,” said Loh. “I spoke with an aircraft maintainer, for instance, who had qualified herself on four specialties involved in maintaining the F-35 aircraft. So when you consider the high experience level of Air Guard personnel to begin with, and then add in the experience from their civilian jobs, we have a unique ability to put together teams of really multi-capable airmen for mission success.”

Increasingly the Air Guard has embraced the ACE operational doctrine, he noted, that focuses on small teams and a mindset that mission accomplishment takes priority over all else. “Because with small teams, if someone gets sick or even killed, you still have to work together to solve problems and accomplish the mission,” said Loh. “What we can’t do is let this model turn into an exercise of just asking our airmen to do more with less. Some of them are concerned about that, and we need to make clear that is not the model.”

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 3:48 p.m. Sept. 23, 2022, with the date of the con-combat evacuation.

‘Space Superiority’ and ‘Democratization of Air Power’ are the Future, Leaders Say

Sept. 21, 2022 | By Chris Gordon

In the closing session of AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference, top generals in charge of planning for the Air Force and Space Force laid out their perspectives of the fundamental shifts occurring in their domain.

Lt. Gen. Nina M. Armagno, the director of staff of the Space Force, outlined a vision of “space superiority,” offering some of the first public comments for the service to operate in an offensive capacity.

In response to Russia’s and China’s growing footprint in space and their increasing ability to threaten U.S. satellites, America must be on the front foot to counter its adversaries, she said.

“What that really means is the ability to take a punch, and to continue to fight,” Armagno said. “The ability to take a hit in any one of our mission areas, absorb that hit and fight back, from the ultimate high ground.”

So far, the Space Force has publicly defined its role as the key enabler for the U.S. joint force, and noted that the systems it operates, like GPS, allow the modern world to function as we know it. But increasingly bellicose adversaries will require deterrence.

“This isn’t just about space for space’s sake. This is about the space integrated in the all-domain fight: air, land, sea, undersea forces, plus space, plus cyber. That is the capability that the United States brings to the fight,” Armagno said. “If we lay the foundation, as we’re doing with these very capabilities that we’re putting together today, and we lay this foundation, we will be unstoppable. We will achieve space superiority. And as a nation, we’ll be able to deter attack, defend our country, when, where anytime, anyplace, against any threat that might come our way.”

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, Air Force deputy chief of staff, strategy, integration, and requirements, offered a vision of a revolution occurring in the air. Lower barriers for entry and autonomous systems will fundamentally change military aviation.

“These are incredibly important things,” Hinote said. “It is not something that is military-only. We are going to see the economy of the United States grow due to the democratization of air power. Autonomous flight is going to change a lot of things. I hope that we as a country can reap the full benefit of autonomous flight.”

With the right partnership between new entities and the traditional military-industrial base, Hinote said he sees a future where the Air Force can quickly adapt to new technology while still leveraging its power to innovate.

“I think we have to be ambidextrous,” Hinote said. “I think we have to be able to accept that commercial technology can really help us in a lot of areas. We need to be good at adapting that and being fast followers into those technologies. But at the same time, we are still going to need to be able to lead the way in certain technologies.”

US Has Lost Conventional Overmatch, Needs Investment to Maintain Deterrence

Sept. 21, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

China has advanced so far and so fast in its air and space power that the Air Force’s ability to deter through conventional forces is at risk, Air Combat Command chief Gen. Mark Kelley said Sept. 21. He said the combat air forces are short 12 squadrons of multirole aircraft.

“By any measure, we have departed the era of conventional overmatch,” Kelly said in a speech at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

“When you have conventional overmatch, strategic risk is low. But that’s not where we’ve arrived in terms of conventional deterrence.”

The combat air forces are less than half the size they were when the U.S. prevailed quickly and with relatively few casualties in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and the size of the combat air forces is well below where various unclassified studies have said they need to be, Kelly said. The exact numbers are highly classified, he said.

Kelly said the Air Force needs 60 fighter squadrons to meet all the responsibilities it’s carrying with regard to homeland defense, overseas contingencies, overseas presence, and crisis response, but only has 48 squadrons of what he termed “multirole” fighters. He has an additional nine squadrons of A-10s, which he called “attack” aircraft, but they lack the multirole capability that allows them to be plugged into the global force management scheme. Combatant commanders want multirole aircraft to be able to fulfill a variety of missions, which the A-10 cannot do. He lauded the A-10 community as brave and willing to go wherever they’re sent, but lacking in the capabilities needed to meet COCOM needs and prevail in air-to-air combat.

The shortages are felt mostly in Pacific Air Forces, which needs 13 squadrons but fields only 11, and in crisis response forces, which are five squadrons short of requirements, Kelly said.

There’s also an insufficient number of squadrons transitioning to new aircraft. Kelly said eight squadrons should be in that process but only three are.

“If there is an insufficient number in conversion, that either means your fighter force is getting smaller, getting older, becoming less capable, or all three,” he said.

The age of the fighter fleet was 9.7 years in 1991, but is 28.8 years now, he noted.

Readiness is also taking a dive, Kelly said, with fighter pilot flying hours hovering around 9.7 hours a month, versus 22.3 just before Desert Storm.

“Some folks may surmise that I’m trying to make a case for 134-fighter squadrons or 10-year-old aircraft where pilots get over 20 hours a month,” Kelly said, and while that would be a good thing, “it completely misses the point,” which is that declining readiness of the fighter force raises the risk that an adversary will see an advantage, resulting in a failure of conventional deterrence.

Kelly ticked off a series of combat air force achievements of China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which has gone from a rudimentary force to one that has nearly caught up to USAF through the rapid, “iterative” deployment of better aircraft and greater capabilities.

He also warned that there are “fourth-generation aircraft with fifth-generation capabilities,” and that it’s become too simplistic to pigeonhole aircraft into various categories. Older aircraft are carrying increasingly sophisticated sensors and weapons, he said.

Kelly also argued that there must not be a tradeoff between capacity and quality in the Air Force. He noted that Germany in World War II fielded rocket planes, jet fighters, jet bombers and rudimentary ICBMs—a truly advanced capability—yet got “completely destroyed,” because it failed to have enough air force assets.

“What I’m arguing for,” he said, is a force that will discourage any potential opponent from even contemplating a war with the U.S.

“Who wants to pick a fight with a nation that has 134 fighter squadrons” that are modernized, well-equippped and well trained, he asked. “No nation in their right mind,” he answered.

Kelly said the nation must stay on a rhythm of fielding at least 72 new fighters a year, and keep allies and partners at a comparable level of capability, because the U.S. will depend on them to provide mass.

He said the Air Force is still planning a “4+1” fighter force comprised of F-22s—which must be kept credible until the Next-Generation Air Dominance Fighter arrives, he said—the F-15E/EX family for “large munitions and payloads,” the F-35 for taking down enemy air defense systems, and the F-16 as the “capacity” airplane, with the A-10s as an attack aircraft force that will phase out circa 2030.

In a later press conference, Kelly told reporters it is too soon to think about the effect on the structure of the force that uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft will have; they will need to be put in the hands of “the captains” who will figure out the best use of such aircraft. It’s also too soon to calculate how many CCAs could be substitute for a fighter squadron, if indeed such a metric is ever applied.

AMC Commander Lays Out ‘Mobility Manifesto,’ Including Look at Limited Aircrews

Sept. 21, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

With an ambitious goal of being ready to fight inside the Pacific’s first island chain by August 2023, Air Mobility Command boss Gen. Mike Minihan laid out what he called his “Mobility Manifesto” at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference, highlighted by plans to move more boldly in the Pacific and test smaller crews on the KC-46 and other aircraft.

“AMC is the Joint Force maneuver. AMC is the meaningful maneuver,” Minihan declared Sept. 21. “There is too much water and too much distance [in the Pacific] for anyone else to do it relevantly, at pace, at speed, at scale. Everybody’s role is critical, but Air Mobility Command is the maneuver for the Joint Force. If we don’t have our act together, nobody wins.”

Minihan, who ascended to his role in October 2021, recalled that just before his promotion ceremony, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. urged him to “go faster,” echoing his mantra of “Accelerate Change or Lose.”

In the push to do so, Minihan noted four gaps that concerned him: command and control, navigation, maneuvering under fire, and tempo.

Seeking to address those gaps, Minihan detailed more than a dozen initiatives he’s pursuing, including the idea of removing the co-pilot from the KC-46, leaving the tanker with a crew of two—the pilot and the boom operator. Reports of such a move first came to light in July, sparking pushback from some who felt it would strain an already undermanned force.

“You’ll have to forgive me. I don’t think fighter pilots are the only ones that have a birthright to fly an airplane solo,” Minihan said. “And as much as I admire and trust that crowd, I admire and trust mine in exactly the same way.

“There’s a real operational need for it. In order to generate the tempo required to win, it’s not hard to imagine a pilot and a boom on the bunk sleeping with a pilot and a boom in seats, getting the mission done. And I’d rather test that out now than try to figure it out when the shooting is going on.”

And it’s not just the KC-46 that may eventually operate with skeleton crews. Minihan also included an objective in his manifesto to explore limited aircrew operations for other major weapons systems.

The KC-10 Extender, like the KC-46, usually has a crew of three. The KC-135 Stratotanker generally has a crew of four—two pilots, a navigator, and a boom operator. Other AMC airlifters like the C-17 and C-130J typically have two pilots and a loadmaster.

Minihan’s interest in being able to sustain a higher ops tempo and longer sorties was also reflected in his stated goal of having the KC-46 fly a 30-hour and 36-hour sortie—a Pegasus previously broke AMC’s endurance record with a 24.2-hour flight in May.

Such long flights, covering massive distances, may be needed in the Indo-Pacific region, a vast area known for its “tyranny of distance.” The Air Force and the broader Pentagon have increasingly emphasized the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility as part of a pivot toward competition with China, and Minihan went so far as to credit his promotion to commander of AMC to his previous experience in the region.

That focus on the Pacific will continue with Mobility Guardian 23, AMC’s “crown jewel” exercise, Minihan said. That event, scheduled for next summer, will take place “over the Pacific with the scheme of maneuver I briefed the Chief, so I can demonstrate a win,” Minihan said.

Previous versions of Mobility Guardian have been in Michigan and Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest, but Minihan stressed the importance of AMC being able to fly and project power into the Pacific, arguing that there is “more permissive than nonpermissive” air there.

Running through a series of famous air battles in USAF history and adversaries’ capabilities, Minihan said the takeaway should be to not overestimate China’s capabilities and instead move boldly.

“When you base your argument on threat rings, you’re making some flawed assumptions,” Minihan said. “The first being that it’s a worst-case scenario. It extends persistence that’s not real. It extends a custody that’s not real. And it extends a magazine depth that’s not real. Invest in our tenacity and go. We don’t have a choice.”

Starting down the list of tasks and objectives he has set, Minihan acknowledged that there is plenty of work to be done to fulfill his goal of: “We’re not ready to fight and win inside the first island chain—but we will be in a year.”

Ultimately, though, he framed it as a matter of will.

“We can decide to accelerate. We can decide to change. We can decide to be lethal,” Minihan said. “We can decide to maneuver, and we can decide to win.”