AI Will Enhance Logistics—If Systems Get Modernized First, Vendors Say

AI Will Enhance Logistics—If Systems Get Modernized First, Vendors Say

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.—Artificial intelligence could be a force multiplier in logistics and sustainment for managing Air Force systems and technology, but there’s no magic wand that can sprinkle AI dust to magically modernize legacy systems, vendors here said at AFA’s Air, Space and Cyber Conference on Sept 18.  

To achieve the full potential of AI-driven predictive algorithms, existing systems and business processes must also be overhauled, and that needs to happen first, said Justin Woulfe, cofounder and chief technology officer of Systecon North America, a logistics fleet management software provider. 

“We all know that inside of our maintenance systems and supply systems … there’s a lot of fuzzy information,” he said, “The reality is, there may not be a lot of value in some of the data fields in there. So being able to understand them in a more automated way doesn’t help.” 

The problem, he explained in an interview later, is that legacy systems often record data that “somebody needed in 1988 and no one’s used since then.”  

The Air Force could learn from the U.S. Navy, which successfully “modernized their IT portfolio to be able to buy AI [tools] in a much better way, not just trying to throw AI on top of some of the legacy solutions that exist in old school IT systems that are holding us back, frankly,” Woulf said.

Other panelists agreed it was important to match the right tool for the right tasks, with AI as much as with any other technology.  

“Just because you have an AI hammer does not mean you should use an AI hammer for every single problem,” said Matt George, founder and CEO of Merlin Labs, which develops autonomous flight systems. 

In developing AI pilots, George said, there are three stages of looking at a problem. Firstly, can it be solved using conventional “highly deterministic software,” which produce predictable results every time for core flight control and navigational tasks? “If the problem is not solvable deterministically, we then use what we call sniper shot AI skills, so things like natural language, where an aircraft controller or air battle manager can go talk to the system in … a constrained, machine learning way.” 

For problems not solvable by either approach, “then and only then, you breakout that true transformer-based AI hammer and be able to enable the system to be a little bit creative,” he said. 

The importance of the step-by-step approach is that it allows trust to develop, he said. Merlin would introduce autonomous systems as a “junior pilot,” where the human pilot was “able to go monitor or override and be able to go train that [AI] pilot and build trust.” 

Trust was essential, and building it was tough, George said. “When folks ask us what’s the hardest technical problem that we’re facing … the answer I always give is human factors. The hardest part of what we’re dealing with is human factors.” 

Those human factors meant a gradual approach was essential, he said. “When you first get in an aircraft with somebody else who’s not flown with you before, or that you don’t necessarily trust completely, your hand is really tight on that stick. And then you gradually relax to the point where you trust the other pilot on the flight deck with you,” he said. 

That trust is just as important in sustainment and logistics as it is in autonomous flight, added retired Air Force Col. Louis Ruscetta, now with vendor Virtualitics. AI decision-making needs to be transparent and auditable, because where serious decisions are involved, no one is going to trust a decision coming from a black box. 

“In the end, the human, those maintainers, those supply chain reps, they’re on the hook. The commanders in the field that are making the decision, that have that authority and responsibility, need to understand what information that’s being fed into those tools … again, it gets back to building that trust,” he said. 

Defense Unicorns on Software Acquisition – Live at ASC24

Defense Unicorns on Software Acquisition – Live at ASC24

Victoria Wyler, Defense Unicorns’ Growth Lead discusses software acquisition at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at the Gaylord Convention Center in National Harbor, Md.

RTI on Data Networks – Live at ASC24

RTI on Data Networks – Live at ASC24

John Breitenbach, Director Aerospace & Defense Markets, RTI, talks about data networks at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at the Gaylord Convention Center in National Harbor, Md.

CAE on Training and Simulation –  Live at ASC24

CAE on Training and Simulation –  Live at ASC24

Dr. Jennifer McArdle, Senior Director for Futures, CAE Defense & Security discusses Training and Simulation at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at the Gaylord Convention Center in National Harbor, Md.

Brig. Gen. Chris Amrhein Says Space Force is Exceeding Recruiting Goals

Brig. Gen. Chris Amrhein Says Space Force is Exceeding Recruiting Goals

Brig. Gen. Chris “Bammer” Amrhein, commander of Air Force Recruiting Command, says the U.S. Air Force and Space Force exceeded recruiting goals for fiscal 2027, but have greatly increased the goal for fiscal 2025, which starts Oct. 1. More recruiters, and a larger pool in the delayed entry program will help, but the goal for 2025 will rise by almost 20 percent. 

Amrhein spoke with Air & Space Forces Magazine’s Editor in Chief, Tobias Naegele, at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference in National Harbor, Md.

Mitchell Institute’s Chilton on Protecting U.S. Access to Space

Mitchell Institute’s Chilton on Protecting U.S. Access to Space

Retired Gen. Kevin Chilton, Explorer Chair at the Mitchell Institute’s Space Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE), says the U.S. Space Force needs offensive counterspace capabilities to hold adversaries’ space assets at risk and to ensure U.S. access to space-based communications, precision navigation and timing, missile warning, and targeting when and where its needed by U.S. and allied forces in every domain. Chilton spoke with Air & Space Forces Magazine’s Editor-in-Chief, Tobias Naegele, at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at the Gaylord Convention Center in National Harbor, Md.

USAF Leaders: Pilot Shortage Requires ‘Holistic,’ Analytical Solution

USAF Leaders: Pilot Shortage Requires ‘Holistic,’ Analytical Solution

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.—Air Force leaders said Sept. 17 they plan to take a ‘holistic” and “system of systems” approach to close the service’s chronic, seemingly intractable pilot shortage, rather than the patchwork of individual good ideas tried over the last several decades.

Dating back to the 1990s, the service has consistently dealt with pilot shortage problems. In that time, officials have trotted out a wide variety of potential fixes—bonuses, an air mobility track, fighter fundamentals, simulators, a civilian path to wings, an accelerated path to wings.

They’ve also gone deep trying to understand the “second- and third- order effects from a pilot production and absorption [and] retention perspective,” retired Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian said during a panel discussion at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

Yet despite all that effort to produce more pilots, the end result has generally been the same, said Lt. Gen. Adrian L. Spain, deputy chief of staff for operations: around 1,300 new pilots per year, well short of the service’s long-term goal of 1,500.

“We’ve tried many, many ways to go above that. … We’ve really stretched ourselves and gotten to over 1,400 but we haven’t really gotten to 1,500 ever,” said Spain.

“The expectation was that we would gain 200 to 250 additional pilots per year using those initiatives. The problem is, they were offset” by the unforeseen.

Those unanticipated problems included freak weather events, supply constraints, and problems keeping aging training aircraft going. There were self-inflicted wounds as well, Spain said, when the Air Force deliberately “took risk” in funding some accounts, like spares, to maintain combat readiness elsewhere.

“The effect of that was, we didn’t get better,” Spain said. “We stayed at exactly about the same level: 1,300 plus or minus. So those initiatives worked; they just kept [the shortage] from getting worse.‘”

Moving forward, Spain and Lt. Gen. Brian Robinson, commander of Air Education and Training Command said the Air Force cannot expect standalone initiatives to close the gap.

“Solving one element of it doesn’t solve the problem,” Spain said. “You have to actually tackle all of the things that contribute to it to get to a holistic solution, and that’s what we’re really trying to work on now: how do we look at this problem from all of the angles…and ensure that the solutions that we’re implementing are actually holistic.”

Robinson described the process as thinking about pilot production as a “system of systems.”

“We’re working really hard, as a foundational aspect, to be able to understand the system of systems digitally, and we can work with the myriad of variables that exist,’ Robinson said. “And by the way, inside each one of those segments is another set of systems of systems: logistics, supply, manpower decisions, airspace access, air traffic controllers at some of our bases.”

Applying artificial intelligence and digital methods to wring more efficiency out of each element will collectively nudge the numbers higher, Robinson said.

“Some might call it a ‘digital twin,’” Robinson said, comparing the system to a digital model of an aircraft where designers can tweak variables and get instant feedback.

“But it’s got to be sustainable,” he added. “I don’t want Airmen working 70 or 80 hours a week trying to achieve” the aircraft readiness rates needed to smooth out pilot flow, he said.

As an example, Robinson described an initiative to increase the T-6 part of pilot training, which leads to better results down the line.

“We’re now scaling that approach out to Columbus Air Force Base now and … after that, we’ll take a look at applicability at Vance Air Force Base. But year over year, with what we’ve done—and this is where it comes back to the system of systems—by increasing the T-6 phase across AETC” will result in about 111 [additional] pilots getting their wings,” he said.

The problem is also not consistent between weapon systems. Spain said an F-35 pilot recently asked him “what pilot shortage?” because at his location, the recent long pause in F-35 deliveries had created a surplus of pilots to fly the number of jets available.

“That [unit] was overmanned because we had delayed deliveries, and so they had 130%” of the pilots needed,” Spain said.

The differences between systems has also come up because the Air Force recently had to divert top flight school graduates—who usually get their assignment choice—away from fighters to other aircraft, such as C-130s, because fighter Flying Training Units couldn’t absorb them without causing other problems.

The action is meant to “smooth out bulges in the system,” Spain said.

As things stood, Robinson added, pilots were waiting a year to advance to the next phase of training, instead of three to five months.

While the move has met with some complaints from graduates who expected to go to fighters and were either redirected to “heavies” or as instructors, Spain said that pilots need to remember that the needs of the service come first.

The Air Force also needs to “de-stigmatize” pilots going into the Guard and Reserve, said Maj. Gen. Randal K. Efferson, acting commander of the Air National Guard Readiness Center.

“You can have a really good career” in the Air National Guard, he said, but panelists agreed that even discussing leaving Active Duty to pursue flying in the reserve components drew frequent criticism from commanders and fellow pilots, a cultural problem that needs to be fixed.

NORAD Boss ‘Intrigued’ by New High-Altitude Drones Amid Increase in Russian Approaches

NORAD Boss ‘Intrigued’ by New High-Altitude Drones Amid Increase in Russian Approaches

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.—Russian aircraft have encroached on the Alaska air defense indication zone (ADIZ) four times in the last week, the head of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command noted Sept. 17, as he said he wants to ramp up his command’s training and monitoring capabilities.

“We’ve had four straight nights of intercepting Russian aircraft that have penetrated inside the Alaska ADIZ,” Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot said at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “NORAD fighters, AWACS (Airborne early warning and control aircraft), and tankers intercepted them all, everything safely and professionally. But it shows an increased presence.”

The steady stream of incursions included:

NORAD posted on social media that it scrambled U.S. fighters to intercept the aircraft on Sept. 11 but didn’t specify the type of the Air Force jets or the Russian aircraft involved that day.

Incursions into the air defense identification zone are not the same as entering U.S. or Canadian airspace. Russian activity in this buffer zone occurs regularly and NORAD is “accustomed” to the activity, it says. But the frequency is notable—it’s the most consecutive days with an announced detection in years.

It also builds on another notable incident in July, when NORAD tracked two Chinese Xian H-6s and two Russian Tu-95s, escorted by Russian fighter jets, flying near Alaska, the first appearance of Beijing’s bombers in a combined patrol through the area.

“It was just coordinated, not integrated like how two NORAD countries … are very well integrated,” Guillot noted.

Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, commander of NORAD and U.S. Northern command, speaks at the AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference on Sept. 17.

While not yet a display of interoperability, the incident marked the eighth coordinated bomber flight between Beijing and Moscow since 2019, reflecting a growing level of cooperation.

“China spends a lot more time up there,” Guillot cautioned. “It shows, on a daily basis, that the Arctic is an area where a number of nations are showing interest, not only for military purposes, but also for scientific purposes.”

Since branding itself a “near-Arctic State” in 2018, China has showed increased interest in the Arctic for economic and strategic reasons. Although not a major Arctic player yet, experts noted that Beijing views melting ice caps as a gateway to new trade routes, and it may seek to leverage Russia’s Arctic activities to bolster its own presence in the region.  

“We are pursuing sensors that go from sea floor all the way up to space in multiple layers and domains, to make sure that we can detect all of those adversaries,” said Guillot, highlighting that this capability must surpass the ranges covered five or 10 years ago and needs to reach “much further away,” given the advanced capability of adversaries’ weapons.

Specifically for better monitoring aircraft, cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons, Guillot’s predecessor, Gen. Glen VanHerck successfully championed new over-the-horizon radar (OTHR) capabilities. However, in June, the Air Force told lawmakers that it would no longer fund the program in fiscal 2024 as planned, postponing the decision to 2026.

In order to get continuous surveillance, Guillot said he is now eyeing unmanned aerial vehicles as an interim solution. U.S. Central Command is also eyeing low-cost, long-endurance drones through the Air Force’s Task Force 99 program.

“As we look to see which capabilities can be fielded, first, having a gap filler, such as a high-altitude, long-endurance UAVs, could help us utilize the platform’s flexibility and agility to go where we need in that vast landscape,” said Guillot. “I’m very intrigued by what Gen. Kurilla and CENTCOM are doing in the UAV realm. Of course, they need a different sensor suite than we do, so we’ll have to make sure that the type of payloads we need will work. … But I certainly think it’s something that we could look at.”

While UAVs such as RQ-4 Global Hawk drones could offer more flexibility and broad coverage of the area, Guillot added that their sensors and payloads will likely have to be tailored for Arctic conditions to ensure smooth operation without compromising endurance or altitude.

It’s not just the aircraft that have to be prepped for the Arctic. Guillot also hinted at a plan to boost Arctic training—toughening up warfighters for the harsh cold and rugged terrain.

“We’re also trying to increase the number and complexity of exercises that we conduct up there,” said Guillot. “Our fighter squadrons… they’re not necessarily used to working in that environment, and that’s something that takes specific training and, in cases, specific equipment.”

TT Electronics on Aircraft Power Advances – Live at ASC24

TT Electronics on Aircraft Power Advances – Live at ASC24

Julian Thomas, Engineering Director, TT Electronics discusses aircraft power advances at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at the Gaylord Convention Center in National Harbor, Md.