Russia in Violation of New START Nuclear Treaty, US Says

Russia in Violation of New START Nuclear Treaty, US Says

Jan. 31, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

Russia has violated the landmark New START treaty that cut long-range nuclear arms by refusing to allow on-site inspections, the State Department said Jan. 31.

Despite tensions between Moscow and Washington over Russia’s war in Ukraine, the U.S. had previously said New START was holding up. But without on-site inspections, the U.S. cannot precisely verify the number of warheads Russia has deployed, which has made assessing Moscow’s compliance with the accord more difficult.

The State Department noted, however, that the number of deployed warheads was likely under the treaty ceiling of 1,550 at the end of 2022 and that if Russia had exceeded the limit in earlier months, the number was not militarily significant. 

The State Department report to Congress marks the first time that the U.S. has alleged that Russia has violated the accord since it took effect in 2011. The treaty has been extended to 2026, and Russia’s refusal to allow inspections and to meet with American officials to discuss compliance issues has fueled doubts about the possibility of negotiating a follow-on agreement that would put guardrails on the nuclear competition between Washington and Moscow. 

“We have long supported strategic arms control with Russia, voting for New START in 2010 and advocating for the Treaty’s extension during both the Trump and Biden administrations,” said a statement by U.S. Senators Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee; Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; and Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. “But to be very clear, compliance with New START treaty obligations will be critical to Senate consideration of any future strategic arms control treaty with Moscow.”

Republican lawmakers expressed concern that Russia’s refusal to allow inspections under New START might be followed by more significant violations of the accord and said the U.S. should be ready to make upward adjustments in its own arsenal.

“We urge President Biden to direct the Department of Defense to prepare for a future where Russia may deploy large numbers of warheads, well in excess of New START Treaty limits,” read a statement from Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee: Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), chairman of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces; and U.S. Senators Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) of the Senate Armed Services Committee. 

Until 2020, inspections had been carried out routinely. But in March of that year, inspections were paused by mutual consent due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When the U.S. told Russia in the summer of 2022 that it wanted to resume inspections, Moscow resisted.

Russia continued to argue that the COVID-19 protocols were still an obstacle. Russia’s real reason for denying inspections, the State Department report said, “centered on Russian grievances regarding U.S. and other countries’ measures imposed on Russia in response to its unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

The absence of inspections isn’t the only compliance issue. The U.S. sought to discuss compliance issues in the treaty’s Bilateral Consultative Commission, which is a forum for the countries to discuss the treaty’s implementation. Russia initially agreed to a meeting of the commission in November, but then balked. The State Department said that is another issue of Russian “noncompliance.”

Russian officials have told the U.S. they still support the treaty, and U.S. officials are urging Russia to correct its violations so the treaty can be preserved. 

“The United States remains ready to work constructively with Russia to fully implement the New START Treaty,” a State Department spokesperson said. 

Austin: US-South Korea Military Exercises Will Ramp Up, Including Bomber and Fighter Missions

Austin: US-South Korea Military Exercises Will Ramp Up, Including Bomber and Fighter Missions

Jan. 31, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. will step up its military exercises with South Korea to include expanded use of air assets such as fifth-generation fighters and strategic bombers, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said during a visit to Seoul on Jan. 31.

The comments are the latest effort by the U.S. to signal its commitment to South Korean security, amid increased concern from South Korean leaders after North Korea conducted a record number of ballistic missile tests in 2022. North Korea is expected to conduct another nuclear test in the coming months, according to Washington and Seoul.

That concern has led some in South Korea to suggest it should conduct nuclear drills with America or even pursue its own nuclear weapons program. During his visit, Austin reiterated the U.S.’s longstanding policy goal of denuclearizing the entire Korean Peninsula.

But under leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has done the opposite, instead stepping up its missile testing, including long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles. Kim has also said North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons, and North Korea recently flew drones that penetrated South Korean airspace.

In response to North Korea’s threats, Austin reiterated that the so-called “extended deterrence” America provides South Korea “includes the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including our conventional, nuclear, and missile defense capabilities.”

South Korea, officially called the Republic of Korea, has sought reassurances from Washington regarding extended deterrence, including that the policy includes America’s nuclear capabilities.

“The U.S. commitment to the defense of Korea is ironclad,” Austin said at a joint press conference with South Korean defense minister Lee Jong-sup. “You heard us say that a number of times, but that’s just not a slogan; it is what we’re all about.”

After a lull in exercises between the two countries under President Donald Trump’s administration, the U.S. has started to ramp up drills with South Korea again, recently deploying fifth-generation F-22 and F-35s fighters, B-52 strategic bombers, and the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group in exercises.

While North Korean officials have accused those drills of being provocative, Austin and Lee said the drills were necessary and would only increase, both as a signal of U.S. and South Korean resolve and to maintain the two countries’ “Fight tonight” readiness motto.

“Over the past year, our two countries have made great progress in deepening our cooperation,” Austin said.

The U.S. and South Korea also pledged to hold a “tabletop” exercise in February on how they might respond to nuclear weapons use from North Korea—an event that the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review says would “result in the end of the Kim regime.” Austin said the exercise would ensure Washington and Seoul saw “eye-to-eye” on the issue.

In a joint statement, Austin and Lee said increased U.S. and South Korean military exercises have been productive, despite North Korea’s protests, and noted they will not let up. Further exercises will increase in “level and scale” to include more bomber and fighter missions.

America and South Korea pledged to “continue to deploy U.S. strategic assets in a timely and coordinated manner in the future,” referencing the productivity of the air exercises, according to the joint statement.

“You can look for more of that kind of activity going forward,” Austin said.

Saltzman: ‘We’re in a Race to Build Combat Credibility Before We’re Put to the Test’

Saltzman: ‘We’re in a Race to Build Combat Credibility Before We’re Put to the Test’

Jan. 30, 2023 | By Tobias Naegele

The Space Force must transition from delivering behind-the-scenes support to playing a more active role in which space capabilities are continuously tested and contested—and it must do so in as short a time as possible, said Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman in a weekend address to Air & Space Forces Association field leaders.  

“We’re in a race to build combat credibility before we’re put to the test,” he said. “From the competition phase through crisis and conflict, the Space Force is a critical element of the joint force and plays a vital role in integrated deterrence. … We have a responsibility to secure the space domain to defend U.S. service members in harm’s way. We must contest to control the space domain, or else those service members will be at unacceptable risk of attack.”  

Adversaries are posing threats to U.S. capabilities in space but also leveraging commercial space capabilities against America and its allies, Saltzman said.

“Did you know that the Iranians were using commercial space based ISR to help with the targeting and the missile attack they conducted against U.S. bases in Iraq?” Saltzman said.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned a Chinese firm for providing space-based radar imagery to the Wagner group, the Russian mercenary force that has recently increased its operations in Ukraine. Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute Co., also called Spacety China, have provided Terra Tech synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery to Wagner for locations in Ukraine. 

“The takeaway is that, going forward, the joint force is going to have to think through what operating under persistent ISR it looks like,” Saltzman said. The Space Force must be able to challenge those capabilities, he added, “to find ways to protect the joint force from this space-enabled attack.”  

Saltzman’s primary focus since becoming CSO has been operationalizing the Space Force, focusing more on threats, threat response, and countering adversary actions. This, he said, is a continuous process.

“There’s no magic day in the future when we declare, ‘We’ve arrived, we’re ready to respond,’” he said.  “It’s a spectrum of readiness that begins today. And every day that goes by, we will improve our ability.”  

Lines of Effort  

Saltzman defined three lines of effort recently in his first three “C-Notes.” These direct communications to all members of the Space Force, both military and civilian, are inspired by another young service chief from a different time and domain—Navy Adm. Elmo R. Zumwalt Jr., who became Chief of Naval Operations on July 1, 1970, almost a year to the day after Saltzman was born, wrote a series of 121 direct communications with Navy personnel over his four years as CNO. Known as “Z-grams,” he used these notes to build trust and understanding in Navy leadership and to open a dialog with Sailors.  

Saltzman’s intial C-Notes—short for CSO notes—aren’t as specific as many of Zumwalt’s Z-grams, many of which initiated significant policy directives on everything from leave regulations to race relations, but they do open up his view of issues Guardians are talking about and wrestling with daily.  

“First and foremost, we must field resilient, ready, combat-credible forces,” he said Jan. 28. “Each of these descriptors is important and must be clearly understood. A resilient force is one that can withstand, fight through ,and recover from attacks. A ready force has the trained personnel, equipment, and sustainment capacity to accomplish missions and tasks in a high intensity operational environment. And a combat credible force has demonstrated the ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations against an adversary. All three are important.”

Saltzman said it will take both technology and the trained, ready people who operate that technology to achieve the military’s objectives. “Technology makes space operations possible. But the Space Force does not present technology systems or capabilities to the joint force, we present Space Forces. … As the Russian military in Ukraine is showing us right now, a high-tech weapon system will be operationally ineffective” without the trained personnel and sustainment systems needed to execute the mission. 

“Let me offer a few observations about this war, looking at it through a spacepower lens,” Saltzman added. “First, it’s clear that space is viewed as a critical enabler to both militaries [in the conflict in Ukraine]. Both sides have attacked SATCOM capabilities to degrade command and control, and there’s been a concerted effort to interfere with GPS to reduce its effectiveness in the region.

“Second, the clear connection between space and cyber became apparent with a Russian cyber attack against a commercial satellite communications network used by the Ukraine’s military.

“Third, the value of proliferated constellations and commercial augmentation was clearly demonstrated with Ukrainian integration of SpaceX’s Starlink SATCOM system. Acquiring access to this system enhanced the Ukrainian [command and control] structure and it’s proven much harder to target and degrade than previous systems.

“And finally, we’ve observed that even the best—and this may be the most important point—even the best military equipment does not ensure success on the battlefield. A modern military must have well trained operators, well-rehearsed multi-domain operations, effective tactics, and robust logistics and sustainment.”

Yet what’s been seen in Russia’s war in Ukraine is only a glimpse of the kind of challenges that could lay ahead: “The Chinese have multiple ground-based lasers, numerous jammers targeting wide swaths of SATCOM frequencies and GPS,” Saltzman said. “Both Russia and China have invested in cyber capabilities which threaten our ground networks. … Anywhere the Space Force operates, there are threats. And these threats can attack across multiple domains and multiple attack vectors.”

China’s space capabilities are now integrated into its other systems, tying together 290 ISR satellites, 49 precision-navigation-and-timing satellites, and “a growing number of rapid response launch capabilities.”

To counter all that, the Space Force is rapidly developing new capabilities, but Saltzman’s focus is most on the people who must operate those future systems.

“Are the operators ready to employ them?” he asked. “Do they understand the tactics? Do they have a place to train and practice? Or are they just going to be thrown onto the floor and say, ‘Do the best you can when the adversary shows up?’”

Saltzman is challenging his small force of about 8,000 Guardians to consider what they need in the way of doctrine, infrastructure, and organizations, and to more fully imagine and define what it means to be combat-credible in the future.

“We tend to think about the global nature of space operations,” he said, noting that the responsibility for the entire space domain belongs with the unified U.S. Space Command. “But let’s talk about regional space. Let’s talk about more localized space. … Let’s talk about missile warning. I think most people would say missile warning is a global enterprise, right? You have satellites spread around the ring. They’re monitoring the whole earth, from Colorado, and when they get a missile event, they process it and they disseminate it back out to the warfighters.”

But to get that information to the right people so they can get out of harm’s way and defend themselves is not what U.S. Space Command does, Saltzman pointed out. The warnings might go to a regional Air Operations Center, but from there they need to get to the far-flung organizations that work with the AOC. “What about the FOBs and FARPs?” he asked, referring to forward operating bases and refueling points. “How do they get missile warning?”

That’s where the new service components that the Space Force has been standing up come into play—the first stood up under U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in November, and others have since been established in Korea and at U.S. Central Command. These organizations help grease the wheels of communication between the services and their component commands.

“The space component has a responsibility to make sure that the missile warning track that gets to the AOC now gets to every single person that needs it,” Saltzman said. “That’s a very dynamic environment. FOBs and FARPs are changing constantly.”

The Air Force’s focus on Agile Combat Employment, in which forces move dynamically to different operating locations to be less predictable and more complicated for adversaries to target makes that a an even more fluid, complex task.

“We are bouncing forces around continuously to keep our enemies guessing where our forces can be and that doesn’t stop a missile warning architecture from having to give get them missile warning data wherever they are,” Saltzman said. “Space Command can’t do that, … there’s too many of them. So you need space experts who understand procedurally and architecturally how to provide this warning to everybody that needs it.”

Air Force ROTC Unveils Sweeping New Scholarship for Older Cadets

Air Force ROTC Unveils Sweeping New Scholarship for Older Cadets

Jan. 30, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force last week announced an expansive new ROTC scholarship available to third- and fourth-year Cadets intent on commissioning, with the goal of recruiting and retaining more future Airmen in the program. 

The Brig. Gen. Charles A. McGee Leadership Award, named after the legendary Tuskegee Airman, provides either $18,000 per year in tuition or $10,000 per year in housing assistance to any Cadet not already on a scholarship who has completed field training and entered the Professional Officer Course by the start of their junior year. This is the point at which Cadets incur a service obligation. 

“What it really boils down to is that every one of our Cadets now has an opportunity to get some type of scholarship—whether it’s a four-year scholarship, or … that two-year scholarship, the Charles McGee Leadership Award, to finish up their education,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told Air & Space Forces Magazine following a Jan. 27 ceremony introducing the award at the University of Maryland. This “not only helps them, but it helps us,” he added.

“For those that really desire to serve, they now have a chance to finish their education and continue their development to become either an Air Force officer or Space Force officer,” Brown said. 

The new scholarship is part of what Air Force officials called a “rebalancing” of the ROTC scholarship programs—fewer awards will go to high school students and more will go to those who are already there and have demonstrated a further interest and intent to serve. 

Cadets who receive four-year scholarships out of high school can drop out of ROTC program after their freshman year without needing to pay back funds, and sophomores not on scholarship do not incur a service obligation. By delaying more scholarships, the Air Force aims to deliver more funding to those who have the greatest likelihood of serving.

The Air Force typically selects around 75 percent of Cadets to attend field training after their sophomore year. 

Already some 500 Cadets have activated the scholarship, according to Lt. Col. Kim Bender, spokeswoman for Air University. Prior to the introduction of the new award, only 40 percent of AFROTC Cadets received scholarships, almost all to high school seniors. 

“You don’t sign your contract until you go into your junior and senior year,” Brown said. “And in some cases, if you didn’t have the money to go to school, you really wanted to continue in ROTC, but you don’t have the money to finish your education.” 

It’s still too early to say exactly how many Cadets will be able to continue in ROTC because of the new scholarship, Brown said. But there are such cases, he said, and “now they don’t have to worry about, ‘Will I have enough money to come back to school at a later date?’” 

Meanwhile, other Cadets have cobbled together funds to stay in school, working part-time jobs or taking out loans. The scholarship will have a significant impact for them as well. 

“A lot of us are either working multiple jobs or trying to pay off student loans, and this is just a huge step forward,” Cadet William Fraher told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “Not only is this helping us as Air Force Cadets to be better prepared going into the Air Force, this opens the door for internships, career opportunities that we might not have had, just because we were so focused on trying to pay for school.” 

Cadet Anthony Casello said reducing financial pressure will bolster the AFROTC community at universities. “Half our Cadets weren’t able to come [to this ceremony], because of classwork, because of work,” Casello said. “So lifting the burden, to not lose those opportunities, especially in the Cadet community and in AFROTC life—just committing yourself more to the programs and volunteering more and standing out and really enveloping yourself in this huge community.” 

And as the Air Force, along with the other military services, continues to battle through a historically tough recruiting environment and dipping retention rates, the expansion of scholarships available to ROTC students builds a foundation for potentially more satisfied officers staying in the service down the road. 

“You start that process early and you start saying things like, ‘Hey, we’re going to help you pay for housing or we’re going help cover tuition,’ all of a sudden, there’s just so much more of an incentive,” Fraher said. “[People say] ‘I want to get back to this organization, I want to serve more. Because this organization has taken care of me, I want to take care of it.’” 

Such efforts are among the many “small things” the Air Force is pursuing to address longstanding problems like its pilot shortage, Brown said. 

“There’s a number of things we’ve got to be able to do. Each one of these … is an opportunity, because you might have someone who wanted to become a pilot but didn’t have the means to finish school, now we keep them in the program so they can get commissioned and have that opportunity,” Brown said. 

Cadet Cayla Williams, a junior at George Mason University who was recognized during the ceremony as one of the first recipients of the award, called in a commitment by the Air Force to “current students who’ve proven that they are committed to making this a career, not just a dream.” 

The broader reorganization of ROTC scholarships started last spring, officials said, shortly after the death of McGee, one of the last living Tuskegee Airmen and a veteran of 409 combat missions. The decision to name the award in his honor was in keeping with his passion for helping young Airmen, said McGee’s daughters, Charlene and Yvonne. 

“He would tell you, ‘I’ve had my final flight. I passed the torch. You are our future,’” Charlene McGee told the assembled Cadets. “He would go on to say that although it seems like it could be a daunting job to follow in his footsteps, you have what it takes to do it. And he would say, first of all, dream big. And then he would say, work hard because you have to be ready to work. And you’re putting in that work now. And he would say, never give up. … And finally he would tell you, help others along the way.” 

Photos: US-Israel Conclude Massive Exercise with F-35s, B-52s, and More

Photos: US-Israel Conclude Massive Exercise with F-35s, B-52s, and More

Jan. 30, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The recently-concluded Juniper Oak, an “all domain” exercise carried out from Jan. 23-26, was the “largest U.S.-Israel partnered exercise in history,” according to U.S. Central Command. The exercise was intended to demonstrate that the U.S. can rapidly deploy massive firepower to the region even as it shifts its focus away from the Middle East and towards the Pacific and Europe. Photos and videos recently released by the Department of Defense show the scale of the operation.

The complex exercise included integrated bomber and fighter missions, naval operations involving the George H.W. Bush carrier strike group, combat search and recuse, precision long-range artillery, combat search and rescue, close air support, and Space Force assets.

Israel is a recent partner for CENTCOM, formally becoming part of the command’s area of responsibility in 2021. 

“We’re working side-by-side with our Israeli counterparts here and really with other regional partners over the longer term that’s going to make sure we can defend our forces,” Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the head of Air Forces Central, said in a DOD video promoting the exercise. “It’s really part of integrating CENTCOM into the AOR and building that partnership in depth and breadth.”

All told, 142 U.S. and Israel aircraft directly participated in the exercise.

Four American F-35 Lightning IIs joined six Israeli F-35s, in a rare appearance of Air Force F-35s in the region—the U.S. sometimes sends fifth-generation F-22 Raptors to CENTCOM to quickly respond to contingencies.

The exercise also included a large bomber presence—the U.S. has conducted Bomber Task Force missions in the region, most recently in November. Juniper Oak included four B-52s, twice as many as a typical Bomber Task Force mission, and involved aircraft from both B-52 bases: Minot Air Force Base, N.D. and Barksdale Air Force Base, La.

Air Force Special Operations Command joined in the efforts with an AC-130 gunship, which conducted live-fire drills.

Air Forces Central also provided logistical support with C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, transporting the HIMARS launchers used in long-range precision artillery strikes.

As part of the expanded scope of the exercise, U.S. officials underscored the use of Space Force assets for joint command and control and reconnaissance. Juniper Oak involved CENTCOM’s newly activated SPACECENT component and included an RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance plane.

Israel has previously been part of the U.S. European Command’s AOR, which reflected some Arab nations’ uneasiness working with the country. But after the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, and given the continued threat of Iran, the U.S., Israel, and many Arab nations see a common foe.

“Most of the countries in the region look to the east when they think of the threat of Iran and its threat network,” Grynkewich told Air & Space Forces Magazine in September. Grynkenwich said at the time “there’s a lot of opportunity” to expand Israel’s role in CENTCOM, which was demonstrated by Juniper Oak.

While the U.S. military has reoriented itself towards Europe and the Pacific after 20 years of focusing on counterinsurgency operations in the Middle East, U.S. defense officials and military leaders have sought to assure allies the U.S. is still a reliable partner in the region and that if the U.S. and its allies work together more, it can make up for the smaller day-to-day presence in the Middle East.

Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, sought in a speech to dispel the notion that the U.S. was retrenching and cautioned Arab nations against working with Russia or China. Russia, which has a significant military presence in Syria, has been strengthening ties with Iran, from which it has acquired drones for use in Ukraine. China has been using its economic muscle to invest and build influence in the region. In December, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Saudi Arabia and signed a strategic pact with the longtime U.S. ally.

“Over the longer term, we know that this is one of the places where strategic competition happens on a day in and day out basis,” Grynkewich said of Juniper Oak. “The Central region is central to strategic competition, whether that’s against Russia or against the Chinese.”

Hypersonic Scramjet Missile HAWC Successfully Tested for Last Time

Hypersonic Scramjet Missile HAWC Successfully Tested for Last Time

Jan. 30, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

DARPA and the Air Force conducted the final test of their scramjet-powered Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) missile, DARPA announced Jan. 30, and said the program’s “findings will now be used in follow-on efforts.” 

The Air Force is moving forward with two hypersonic weapons—the AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), developed by Lockheed Martin, and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM). ARRW has completed several successful test flights, and a contract for HACM was awarded to Raytheon last September.

But despite deciding not to move forward with HAWC, DARPA and the Air Force decided to finish testing. 

“The things we’ve learned from HAWC will certainly enhance future U.S. Air Force capabilities,” Walter Price of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) said. 

The HAWC had two versions, a Lockheed Martin/Aerojet Rocketdyne missile and Raytheon/Northrop Grumman model. Both had successful tests. The Air Force chose to pursue the ARRW and HACM for its future hypersonic weapons. HACM in particular will act as a follow-on to HAWC’s technology. 

Despite the then-imminent contract award for the HACM, Gen. Duke Z. Richardson, the head of Air Force Materiel Command, said in August “there’s value in completing” the HAWC testing anyway. 

In a release, DARPA said the final HAWC flight was the Lockheed Martin variant, which “again flew at speeds greater than Mach 5, higher than 60,000 feet, and farther than 300 nautical miles.” 

A DARPA spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine “most of the flight was faster than Mach 5” and occurred sometime in January, but declined to provide further details, citing operational security.

While the Air Force is not pursuing HAWC as a weapon, DARPA plans to continue maturing the technology with the More Opportunities with HAWC (MOHAWC) program. 

“Those missiles will expand the operating envelope of the scramjet and provide technology on-ramps for future programs of record,” DARPA said the MOHAWC program. 

Read for Yourself: The Full Memo from AMC Gen. Mike Minihan

Read for Yourself: The Full Memo from AMC Gen. Mike Minihan

Jan. 30, 2023

On Jan. 27, a memo from Air Mobility Command boss Gen. Mike Minihan began circulating on social media. In it, Minihan warned of a possible war between the U.S. and China in 2025 and offered instructions for the Airmen of AMC.

The memo generated international headlines and sparked debate among lawmakers, experts, and observers. The full text of the memo can be read below, with additional context in brackets:

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
HEADQUARTERS AIR MOBILITY COMMAND

MEMORANDUM FOR 18 AF/CC, EC/CC, 22 AF/CC, 4 AF/CC, 618 AOC/CC, ALL AMC WING COMMANDERS

FROM: AMC/CC

1 February 2023

SUBJECT: February 2023 Orders in Preparation for — The Next Fight

  1. SITUATION. I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. [Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025. We spent 2022 setting the foundation for victory. We will spend 2023 in crisp operational motion building on that foundation. If you want to know what the operational motion I demand looks like, look at what Total Force Team Charleston did in January.
  2. COMMANDER’S INTENT. Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China. This is the first of 8 monthly directives from me. You need to know I alone own the pen on these orders. My expectations are high, and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them. I will be tough, fair, and loving in my approach to secure victory.
  3. END STATE. A fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain. Maximize the use of the force and the tools we currently have and extract full value from things that currently exist. Close the gaps: C2, navigation, maneuver under attack, and tempo.
  4. RISK. Run deliberately, not recklessly. You will be governed by the principle of calculated training risk, which you shall interpret to mean the avoidance of death, serious injury, and Class A damage to attain higher readiness, integration, and agility. If the Tactic, Technique, and Procedure you are developing increases AMC’s ability to fight and win inside the first island chain… move out. If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.
  5. OT&E. Attached are our OT&E efforts from 2022 Fall PHOENIX Rally, which will guide our preparation but are not intended to limit creativity of approach. This is not an all-encompassing list. I expect you to move out briskly on the monthly tasks, anticipate the projected tasks and weave them eloquently into your units’ training and operational battle rhythms.
  6. FEBRUARY.
    (a) All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualifications will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.
    (b) All AMC personnel will update vRED [virtual Record of Emergency Data].
    (c) All commanders will acknowledge this order directly to me immediately. Then, report all 2022 accomplishments preparing for the China fight, and forecast major efforts in 2023 through command chains by COB 28 February 2023.
  7. MARCH (Projected).
    (a) All units will report progress toward established OT&E requirements for INDOPACOM Operations discussed and reviewed at Fall PHOENIX Rally.
    (b) All AMC personnel will consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.
    (c) KC-135 units will coordinate to provide a conceptual means of air delivering 100 off-the-shelf size and type UAVs from a single aircraft.
  8. APRIL (Projected).
    (a) All units will report their integration and operation plans for MOBILITY GUARDIAN 2023 to include all events (lead-in and concurrent) they wish to include for credit.
  9. ADMIN. AMC/A3 [Operations] will formalize these orders in FRAGO [Fragmentary Order] format. Completion, progress, reporting, reporting format, and advancement be measured, driven, and collected by our AMC/A3 Team through ARC [Air Reserve Command], NAF [Numbered Air Force] and EC [Expeditionary Center] leadership.

LET’S GO!
MICHAEL A. MINIHAN
General, USAF
Commander

New KC-46 Deficiency Revealed as Contract Is Signed for 15 More Tankers

New KC-46 Deficiency Revealed as Contract Is Signed for 15 More Tankers

Jan. 29, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force awarded Boeing a $2.2 billion contract for 15 KC-46 tankers, the ninth lot of the aerial refuelers, just days after the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center acknowledged a previously undisclosed deficiency with the aircraft.

The latest purchase order is roughly the same as the Lot 8 order from Aug. 31, 2022. The number of aircraft is the same, but the cost slightly increased. Work on the 15 jet aircraft is expected to be completed in 2026.

The KC-46 Pegasus has suffered a stream of deficiencies since its introduction, including ongoing issues with its over-stiff boom and the remote vision system for boom operators. But the latest deficiency has nothing to do with aerial refueling; instead, the ding is for insufficient documentation for loading cargo on the jets. 

The Defense Department’s Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, disclosed the latest problem in its annual report, which noted that the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center had determined that several “individual cargo-related deficiencies merited generation of a Category I emergency deficiency report against overall KC-46A cargo operations capability.”

An Air Force Life Cycle Management Center spokesperson, responding to questions from Air & Space Forces Magazine, acknowledged the deficiency, but said it had been downgraded to a Category II deficiency in November 2022. The command did not indicate if that was based on progress toward its resolution or simply a judgment call.

The problems are related to five issues: 

  • Complex, unorganized cargo loading guidance
  • Non-standard cargo limitations, causing aircrew confusion and requirement of onboard cargo inspections
  • Restrictions regarding the cargo barrier net can prohibit loading sufficient, or any, cargo if the forward-most cargo does not meet requirements
  • Problems with the Automated Performance Tool software used to calculate aircraft weight and balance can increase loadmaster workload and require complex manual calculations, introducing potential human error
  • Aerial port operational restrictions caused by inadequate technical guidance increase workload for loading personnel and loading times, driving KC-46A incompatibilities within the Defense Transportation System

The Air Force defines Category I deficiencies as those which prevent “the accomplishment of an essential capability or critically restricts [operational safety, suitability, and effectiveness],” with no known workaround. By contrast, a Category II deficiency is one “which adversely affects an essential capability or negatively impacts operational safety, suitability, or effectiveness,” but can be overcome by “significant compensation or acceptable workaround.”

According to Air Force policy, a program manager can downgrade a submitted deficiency report provided there is agreement with the test director of the operational test agency, in this case AFOTEC. Asked if AFLCMC followed this procedure and coordinated with AFOTEC, neither agency responded.

The AFLCMC spokesman did say that “the estimated completion date for the solutions to close the DR is [the third quarter of fiscal year 2023],” putting it between April and June. No further details were offered. Boeing also did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The Air Force has officially recorded nine Category I deficiencies with the KC-46, most of which officially remain open. Boeing executives told reporters in December that some of those open deficiencies are formalities at this stage, the result of infrequent meetings of the KC-46 deficiency board. 

The issues that led to this latest deficiency report are unrelated to the cargo lock problem that barred the KC-46 from carrying cargo or passengers for three months in 2019. That problem, which was solved and closed out in December 2019, required changes to the cargo pallet locks, which until then, had sometimes come unlocked in flight.  

Boeing and the Air Force have touted the KC-46’s cargo capabilities in comparison to the legacy KC-135 tanker; they have said the aircraft can carry up to 18 pallets, 114 passengers in contingency situations, or more than 50 patients for an aeromedical evacuation. 

The most prominent Category I deficiencies, however, remain months, if not years, away from being resolved, most prominently the troubled Remote Vision System, an array of cameras and screens the boom operator uses to connect and refuel other aircraft. The current setup can result in “whiteouts” or “blackouts” for the boom operator in certain lighting conditions, heightening the risk of the boom accidentally scraping a receiver aircraft. That is particularly troublesome for aircraft with stealth coatings like the F-35 fighter or B-2 bomber. 

Another key deficiency that remains unresolved is a “stiff” boom—some receiver aircraft, particularly the A-10, cannot maintain the thrust against the boom necessary to keep it engaged. As a result, the KC-46 is still not cleared to refuel A-10s. 

The rest of the Category I deficiencies are classified as “product quality,” and primarily related to cracks or leaks. Boeing is working on the issues.

Boeing has delivered more than 60 KC-46s to date, with a planned buy of 179 over the life of the program. The Air Force has also considered increasing that number rather than acquiring a so-called KC-Y in the future.

Gebara Tapped for Promotion; as 3-Star, Will Lead Nuclear Deterrence

Gebara Tapped for Promotion; as 3-Star, Will Lead Nuclear Deterrence

Jan. 29, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The head of the Air Force’s bomber fleet has been tapped for a promotion to join the Air Staff and lead the service’s strategic deterrence efforts, the Pentagon announced Jan. 27. 

If confirmed by the Senate, Maj. Gen. Andrew J. Gebara will pin on a third star and serve as deputy chief of staff of strategic deterrence and nuclear integration. He will succeed Lt. Gen. James C. Dawkins Jr. 

Gebara currently serves as the head of the 8th Air Force and commander of the Joint-Global Strike Operations Center at Barksdale Air Force Base, La. 

The 8th Air Force oversees the Air Force’s bomber and airborne nuclear command and control fleets, including the B-1, B-2, B-52, and E-4 aircraft.  

The deputy chief of strategic deterrence and nuclear integration oversees the Air Force’s nuclear deterrence efforts, including its ICBM forces. 

Before he took command of the 8th Air Force, Gebara commanded at the squadron and wing level and held positions in U.S. Central Command, U.S. Strategic Command, Headquarters Air Force, and the National Security Council. Prior to his move to the 8th Air Force in August 2021, he was director of strategic plans, programs, and requirements for Air Force Global Strike Command. 

A command pilot with more than 3,800 flight hours, Gebara flew the B-2, B-52, and A-10. Unusually, he is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and has served in four campaigns: operations Iraqi Freedom I, Allied Force, Joint Guard, and Enduring Freedom. 

Once confirmed, Gebara will take over the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise in the midst of a massive modernization drive:

  • The B-21 stealth bomber will soon make its first flight  
  • The LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM, formerly called the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, is scheduled for its first missile test this year 
  • The Long-Range Stand Off weapon, a new nuclear missile, is in development 
  • New nuclear command, control, and communications systems are coming
  • The MH-139 helicopter, used for transport and convoy of security forces around missile fields, is nearing a production decision.  

Accompanying those modernization programs have been scores of construction and infrastructure projects—and in a recent Mitchell Institute webinar, Dawkins said those projects are his most pressing concern. 

“Believe it or not, what I worry about most, more than anything right now—more than technology—is concrete and rebar, reinforcement steel that goes in the concrete to build the 650 construction projects that we have, not just in the missile fields but across the nuclear enterprise,” Dawkins said. “It has to be built in the next 12 years in 13 states.”