The Biden administration’s long-awaited National Security Strategy predicts that the 2020s will be a “decisive decade,” requiring the U.S. to “outmaneuver” and compete with an aggressive, well-financed China and a “dangerous” Russia by investing in the American people and marshaling U.S. allies to cooperate for the advancement of democracy and free markets.

The strategy effectively abandons previous, unsuccessful attempts to bring Russia into a cooperative world order and pledges to hold Moscow accountable for its brutal invasion of Ukraine. It pledges to work with Europe to develop “energy independence” from Russia and threatens to further isolate Moscow if it continues to pursue an imperialistic strategy of adding territory by military means.

The strategy follows an “interim” version released in the spring of 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced a series of rewrites as the President’s national security team sought to adapt to changing conditions.

The National Security Strategy is the umbrella document for the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review, and Missile Defense Review. The release of the unclassified NSS suggests that an unclassified version of the other documents will be released soon.  

According to the new strategy, China is the only country possessing both the “intent” to reshape the world order and the economic and military means to potentially accomplish that. Beijing has “ambitions” of being the world’s greatest military power, the document states, and is using its considerable clout to expand its sphere of influence, its brand of authoritarianism, and to “mold global technology use and norms” to its own advantage.

China’s military is “growing in strength and reach globally … while seeking to erode U.S. alliances,” the NSS asserted. Beijing uses its economic power to “coerce” other countries and the openness of the global economy to expand its exports, even as it restricts access to its own domestic markets, with the aim of making the world more dependent on its goods and services.

In response, the U.S. must “invest in the foundations of our strength at home”—innovation, competitiveness, resilience, and democracy. The U.S. must also strengthen its ties to allies and friends, the NSS states, and “compete responsibly” with China to “defend our interests and build our vision for the future.”

Time is of the essence, the strategy states: “The next 10 years will be the decisive decade.” The U.S. faces an “inflection point … where the choices we make and the priorities we pursue today will set us on a course that determines our competitive position long into the future.”

The NSS lists various aggressions and broken promises from China in the Pacific region, including the crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong and intimidation of Taiwan. The strategy pledges “prioritizing investments in a combat-credible military that deters aggression against our allies and partners in the region, and can help those allies and partners defend themselves.”

The U.S. strategy stats that the nation is committed to “maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” and opposes any “unilateral change” in the status quo “from either side.” The United States will honor its commitments to “support Taiwan’s self-defense and to maintain our capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion against Taiwan.”

Despite the need to compete with China and Russia, though, the U.S. is willing to work with those countries if they are willing to do so in constructive ways, the strategy says. It also lays the blame for the Ukraine war squarely on Russian President Vladimir Putin and makes an unsubtle pitch for regime change in that country.

It is the Russian people who must “determine Russia’s future as a major power capable of once more playing a constructive role” on the world stage.

Russia has made itself less of a long-term threat because of the Ukraine invasion, the NSS asserts.

Putin’s war “has profoundly diminished Russia’s status vis-a-vis China and other Asian powers such as India and Japan,” according to the NSS. “Moscow’s soft power and diplomatic influence have waned, while its efforts to weaponize energy have backfired. The historic global response to Russia’s war against Ukraine sends a resounding message that countries cannot enjoy the benefits of global integration while trampling on the core tenets of the UN Charter.”

The NSS asserts that Russia has been militarily weakened by its heavy losses of troops and equipment in Ukraine, and the strategy voices concern that Russia will increasingly make up for that deficit with nuclear threats.

“The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons,” the NSS states. “America retains an interest in preserving strategic stability and developing a more expansive, transparent, and verifiable arms control infrastructure to succeed New START and in rebuilding European security arrangements which, due to Russia’s actions, have fallen in to disrepair”—a reference to the conventional forces in Europe treaty and the intermediate nuclear forces agreement, which Russia pulled out of.

The U.S., with its allies and partners, is “helping to make Russia’s war on Ukraine a strategic failure,” the NSS said, by “constraining” that country’s strategic economic sectors, “including defense and aerospace, and we will continue to counter Russia’s attempts to weaken and destabilize sovereign nations and undermine multilateral institutions.”

NATO has been bolstered by its united front against Russia’s aggression and by the imminent admission of Finland and Sweden to the alliance, the NSS asserts, and it is stronger not only conventionally but also against “asymmetric threats” such as cyberattacks and Russia’s meddling in foreign elections.

Although the “trajectory” of the Ukraine war will determine some aspects of future U.S. policy, the NSS said the U.S. will “continue to support Ukraine in its fight for its freedom” and will help that country “recover economically.” The strategy encouraged Ukraine’s “regional integration with the European Union” but stopped short of advocating for its admission to NATO.

As Biden has previously said, the strategy pledges that the U.S. “will defend every inch of NATO territory and will continue to build and deepen a coalition with allies and partners to prevent Russia from causing further harm to European security, democracy, and institutions.”

The U.S. will also “deter and, as necessary, respond” to any Russian actions that threaten U.S. core interests, “including Russian attacks on our infrastructure and our democracy.”

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said at a press conference addressing the strategy that “We are not seeking to have competition tip over into confrontation or a new Cold War.”

But China and other autocracies are moving aggressively to undermine Democracy, he added, and the coming decade will “shape the future of the international order.”

The U.S. will compete economically, diplomatically, and militarily to shape the world, Sullivan said, but the administration will strive to prevent a costly era of proxy confrontations or new arms races.

Sullivan said the forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review will be consistent with the NSS in setting a goal for “the reduction of the role of nuclear weapons in American strategy,” a point already made in the interim NSS released in March 2021, which he called one of the key “departures” from the Trump administration’s strategy.

The 47-page unclassified summary of the NSS concludes that the U.S, with its allies and partners, “is positioned to succeed in our pursuit of a free, open, prosperous and secure global order.” Besides out-competing autocratic challengers to that order, the U.S. will also tackle “shared challenges” such as “climate change, pandemic preparedness, and food security, that will define the next stage of human history.”

The U.S. will also seek to establish “fair rules of the road” for emerging technologies, cybersecurity, trade, and economics. It will do this by leveraging its considerable economic and military power and “our unparalleled coalition of allies and partners.”

The NSS says the U.S. will modernize its military, pursue advanced technologies, and invest in the defense workforce. By doing so, “we will have strengthened deterrence in an era of increasing geopolitical confrontation, and positioned America to defend our homeland, our allies, partners, and interests overseas, and our values across the globe.”

“We are motivated by a clear vision of what success looks like” at the end of the decade, the NSS states.

“By enhancing our industrial capacity, investing in our people, and strengthening our democracy, we will have strengthened the foundation of our economy, bolstered our national resilience, enhanced our credibility on the world stage, and ensured our competitive advantages.”

Regionally, the NSS says the U.S. will work to “reinforce” Turkey’s ties to NATO and the West, after that nation has drawn closer to Russia in recent years.

In the Middle East, there’s little change in the U.S. position on Israel and its neighbors, encouraging Arab nations that have not yet done so to normalize relations with Israel; and maintaining support for a two-state resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Despite Russian and Chinese moves to have a greater presence and role in the Arctic, the NSS seems to downplay this, saying the U.S. will increase its presence there “as required” while striving to “prevent unnecessary escalation.”

The NSS says the U.S. will work to counter “coercion” of South American states by China, Russia, and Iran.

The new strategy also pledges that the U.S. will “stand up for freedom of navigation and overflight” because the world depends on free access to the global commons for its security and prosperity.

The U.S. will “stand up to threats” to that access.

It will also “support environmental protection, and uphold destructive distant fishing practices by upholding international laws and norms … including” the U.N.’s laws of the sea. It will also work to preserve Antarctica’s status “as a continent reserved for peace and science.”

The U.S. also plans to “maintain our position as the world’s leader in space” but to work with the international community “to ensure the domain’s sustainability, safety, stability, and security.” The U.S. plans to lead in “updating space governance,” including traffic systems and a “path for future space norms and arms control.” It will work to improve the “resilience” of its space systems, protect U.S. interests in space, “avoid destabilizing arms races, and responsibly steward the environment.”