Watch, Read: ‘Long-Range Strike: Fielding Tomorrow’s Bomber’

Watch, Read: ‘Long-Range Strike: Fielding Tomorrow’s Bomber’

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula moderated a discussion on “Long-Range Strike: Fielding Tomorrow’s Bomber” with Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost, director of strategic plans, programs, and requirements, Air Force Global Strike Command; Melissa A. Johnson, acting director of the DAF Rapid Capabilities Office; Thomas H. Jones of Northrop Grumman; and retired Col. Mark Gunzinger of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Sept. 20, 2022, at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible by the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Well, good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I’m Dave Deptula, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, and welcome to our panel on the next generation bomber force. One of the fundamental credos of the Air Force is to be able to strike any target anywhere, anytime. No other mission speaks to this as much as long range penetrating strike. However, this is also one of the most challenging missions to accomplish in highly contested operational environments, particularly during a peer conflict. That’s why it takes stealth bombers equipped with advanced sensors and the right mix of munitions to hold our adversaries most important assets at risk. Northrop Grumman is continuing to develop and test the next generation penetrating bomber, the B-21, as the premier capability in our nation’s future long range strike family of systems. Today, we’re going to discuss the B-21 and the need to rapidly acquire the appropriate sized B-21 force, that’s sized to meet and defeat peer aggression, as well as meeting the national defense strategy’s other operational requirements.

With that, let me introduce our panelist. I’d like to extend a warm welcome to Major General Jason Armagost, Rapid Capability Office acting director, Melissa Johnson, President of Northrop Grumman Aeronautic Systems, Tom Jones, and Mitchell Institute’s own, retired Colonel Mark Gunzinger. General Armagost is a director of strategic plans, programs, and requirements for Global Strike Command. He’s responsible for funding and requirements for modernizing the Air Force’s nuclear deterrent forces, including both the Sentinel ICBM, the B-21, and other systems, with a budget of over 13.5 billion. He’s logged over 2,900 flight hours, including time in all three bomber types in the current inventory.

As the RCOs deputy director, Melissa Johnson helps lead the Air Force’s high speed acquisition efforts. The RCO was given responsibility for the B-21 program to take advantage of the RCOs efficient and streamlined process. Before joining the RCO, Ms. Johnson served in a variety of roles on active duty from aerodynamic propulsion analyst to material leader for several highly classified programs.

And Tom Jones is the Northrop Grumman corporate vice president and president of Northrop Grumman Aeronautic Systems, with almost 30 years experience in the aerospace and defense industries. Northrop’s Aeronautic systems sector is the prime contractor for the B-21 project. So far, the B-21 has progressed well into EMD with six aircraft and various stages of test and final assembly, making it one of the Air Force’s premier acquisition success stories. And you all heard Assistant Secretary Hunter release the news today that it will be unveiled the first week in December.

Colonel retired Mark Gunzinger is director of future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute. And Gunzinger got over 3000 hours in the B-52. He served almost 20 years on the air staff, National Security Council staff, and in OSD as deputy assistant secretary of defense.

Thank you all, ladies and gentlemen, for joining us. And what I’d like to do is offer each of our distinguished panelists the opportunity to make a few opening comments. We’re going to start with General Armagost. Over to you, Arma.

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

All right, thanks, General Deptula. I do want to start with thanks actually, because you’ve kind of been an icon as I’ve come up through my time in the Air Force. It’s a pleasure to share the stage with you, but I also want to thank Gunzo and what you both are doing with the thought leadership through the Mitchell Institute. It has been a great help to me about how we think about the things we’re going to try and tackle together, and how the environment is changing and how we adapt to that changing environment. I know I’m going to steal thunder here, but getting to go first, I got to do that. Being part of this team, between industry, acquisition, and the requirements owner war fighter, is really powerful. I think when RCO was stood up, it really set the stage for some really powerful transparently requirements driven interactions that don’t just sustain themselves. They sustain themselves through relationships.

I would argue that the success that we’ve seen as we march towards getting the B-21 out there is a result of that. And then I would offer, for my initial comments, when I first got in the A58 job last August, almost immediately I got assigned to be an ops lead for one of the secretaries operational imperatives between B-21 Family of Systems. And all that did was really energized this relationship, not to say that it wasn’t before, but it really did energize it. And it has helped me, as a MAJCOM plans guy in support of General Cotton, to really think differently about the gaps and seams. And it’s actually helped us to work on that transition piece for our legacy bombers and our weapons portfolio to really make the near turn different, burn down risk and kind of change the environment really quickly. That’s what I would offer for my intro.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Very good. Ms. Johnson?

Melissa A. Johnson:

Hi, good morning or good afternoon General Deptula. Thank you so much for the generous invitation to participate with my ESTEEM colleagues here and I’m just really proud to represent the men and women of the B-21 program office and I know some of them are sitting in here today and all the DAF RCO and I think I’m, you’ll probably hear some themes. I think General Armagost kind of hit on that, but if I could look back before we talk specifically about B-21, I think there’s really an important linkage to make between the DAF RCO and why the B-21 and for me as I go back 19 and a half years really as a plan holder in the organization, it really boils down to three things and it’s really our core values. It’s talent, trust and teamwork. When we look at the talent that comes into the organization and it’s really a highly skilled multifunctional workforce, if you heard some of the other panels, especially Mr. Hunter and General Richardson today, they talked a little bit about the workforce.

We over the past 19 and a half years have had a very highly skilled, not just program managers and engineers, but it really is embedding the operational community with the program office and that is really a key component to being able to get the right weapon system out the door. The second thing is the trust. You have to have the trust not only from within the organization and with your partners, but it’s the trust not only from the leadership meaning all the way up to the secretary of the Air Force, but really congressional support. That trust and transparency that we have with them has really enabled the stability of funding for this program through the course of its inception. Then the third thing is really the teamwork. And I want to unpack that just for a second, a little bit more than Armo did and that teamwork really manifests itself in a couple of different areas.

First and foremost, it’s our acquisition teammates. The B-21 program office, it’s in the RCO, but we could not do this without our Air Force Life Cycle Management Center teammates up at Wright Pat. In fact, I’d say the majority of the team is at Wright Patterson Air Force Base. We have a smaller contingent here in the DC area. And what LCMC offers is really a large scale of workforce to recruit from every area of the acquisition system. That’s from program managers, financial managers, engineers, contracting, and really you cannot underestimate the need for really great functional support in that contracting and financial management. The second one that doesn’t get talked about a lot but really needs to be emphasized is our partnership with the Sustainment Center. We all get really fixated on developing whatever weapon system and being able to deliver that. But if you don’t bake in the sustainment and the depot planning and how you can have not only sustained operations but also a life cycle affordability, everything else on the front end will start to devolve.

Building that really strong foundation with the sustainment center is really bearing a lot of fruit for the long term for global strike.

The third piece in is our operational support and that relationship with the war fighter that is really key and quite frankly is a core value of the RCO from the very beginning days to the point where global strike personnel actually live within the program office, which is really great. Our program director, Colonel Spalding has a counterpart at the 06 level and they go everywhere together. In fact, if it’s to the point where they’re almost probably finishing each other’s sentences and that is how tightly knit global strike and the organization really are and we value that relationship. And then finally, and just as important, it’s that trust and teamwork with industry. The model that the RCO uses and has used over the past almost 20 years is really making that a partnership.

It is not just a throwing contract actions over the wall between an industry partner and a program office. We know that we each have our roles and we know that there are certain limitations of how closely it can work, but quite frankly, our teams spend so much time at the industry plant that sometimes it is hard to tell who is government and who is industry. Again, everybody is synchronized and it is the constant transparency and communications, which if you don’t have that trust built between the teams, it really gets tough to mitigate risk. And we know in a complex weapon system like this, there’s going to be risk, there’s going to be challenges. And that teamwork with Northrop Grumman, Tom specifically and his team, really is enabled all of us to be able to get those challenges head on and be able to keep this on cost and schedule with the right capability to be able to deliver to global strike.

I’m just very thankful to be a part of this team. We are going to do, we have that great teamship and then quite frankly, again, it’s the congressional support that we get and all of those things coupled together again, bring back that talent trust in teamwork, which is going to give us the best bomber that we can get.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

That’s a great segue to our industry partner. Tom?

Thomas H. Jones:

Okay, thank you very much. General Deptula. I’d like to thank the Mitchell Institute and AFA for allowing me to participate in this panel. Great honor to be on stage with my teammates here and very proud on this special day to be able to represent the B-21 industry team. The last several years have been a challenge for all of us with the pandemic and other things, stressing normal working conditions, supply chain, things like that. And this team that we have of really 400 key suppliers over 40 states across the United States, the Northrop Grumman workforce, our partners, the work they’ve done to keep this program progressing along on budget, on schedule is phenomenal. Again, very proud to represent that team today.

There’s been a lot of positive talk about this program. General Deptula even made some nice comments at the beginning, but to Mojo’s point, this is a aircraft development program. It has not gone without its various problems like any program would. What is different, and I can say that as was pointed out in the bios as someone with over 30 years of experience in industry now is the way the industry government team has approached those problems has been very unique and again, a great thing to be a part of. Very excited to have a chance to crack the door open and talk a little bit about some of the things we’ve done to keep this program rolling along as it should. One final point I wanted to make last year there was a rendering release of the B-21, which generated a lot of interest, although probably to a casual observer that is not into windscreen design.

They probably looked at and said that looks like the B2. And obviously flying wings are a great place to start airplane designs to operate in a highly contested environment. What I think the real key and the magic once we get past survivability, which we actually will not talk about, but it is the brains and the architecture inside B-21, the open architecture system which is going to take this very capable aircraft to make sure it stays on the cutting edge of technology for decades by being able to be modernized very quickly and easily. And that hopefully is also something we can talk a little bit about today. Those are my comments. Again, thank you very much. Looking forward to being on the panel.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

You bet. Gonzo.

Col. Mark Gunzinger (Ret.):

Yeah, so I’m really honored to be sitting on the stage with three individuals who are working every day to make the B-21 a reality for our Air Force and for our country. That’s pretty cool. Thank you very much.

I’ve been an advocate of a new penetrating bomber since the 1990s. I was in every study you can imagine in Department of Defense that took a look at what we really need in the way of long rain strike capabilities. The bottom up review of 1993, I’m dating myself, the 1997 deep attack weapons mix study all the way up to the tiger team effort that culminated with the decision to proceed with the LRSB, now the B-21. And here’s some of the key insights from all those studies. Only penetrating bombers can deny an adversary like China or Russia or others sanctuary deep in their interiors.

Only a combination of stealth, wide ban all aspects stealth, will give us the kind of survivability we need to operate in highly contested environments that are going to exist throughout a conflict with China. The range the B-21 and other bombers bring to the fight will allow us to respond within hours of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or venture in a South China Sea to go on the offensive and be to strike their high value targets and show them that we are determined and we are not going to allow this aggression stand. Only bombers can bring the payload capacity that’s needed to strike thousands of targets and hundreds of hours in those kinds of invasion scenarios, including an invasion of Taiwan. A second insight is the size of the force. The size of the bomber force is way too small today, come to a panel this afternoon, we’re going to talk about that a little bit.

We need a penetrating bomber force of at least 200 aircraft. We have to have the capacity to continue to go on the offensive and strike Chinese targets, Russian targets, to halt their fade a comply, plea aggression, deny, and then defeat that aggression. And finally, we still hear occasionally where it’s, well why don’t we just rely more on standoff weapons and avoid the cost of a penetrating bar. Study after study is shown that that is not a more cost effective way of delivering large numbers of bombs on aim points. In a conflict with China we might have to strike 80 to a hundred thousand aim points in the cost of those standoff weapons alone, make it prohibitive. That’s why we need a penetrating bomber that could use lower cost weapons at scale to defeat our adversaries. With that General Deptula, back to you.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Okay, well thank you all for those insightful opening remarks. What I’d like to do is dig into this subject in a little bit more detail.

Armo first question for you, as a director of strategic plans, programs and requirements for a global strike command, what’s the demand signal that’s coming from the COCOMs for future penetrating strike force and how about that future force size given our national defense strategy and all the requirements that it entails?

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

I think I’ve seen a patch from every MAJCOM here at AFA and it won’t be a surprise to any of you from within your own perspectives, but the demand across the COCOMs, whether they’re regional or global, is ubiquitous and unending. And to Gonzo’s point beyond the capacity we currently have. Actually does kind of touch back to my point about the operation imperatives and how we’re thinking differently about this because the B-21 is not operationally fielded yet. So we’ve had to figure out how we’re going to do this in transition and with legacy platforms and how can we burn down risk for the B-21, but simultaneously increase our capacity and our ability to get into that denied airspace and turn it into a contested airspace so that we can compete and deter actually.

And a lot of really interesting thinking, again it’s coming out of that. We’re quite often now doing on bomber taskforce, we’re going COCOM to COCOM right on the same mission. And the integration that happens along the way with our partners and allies is not just a signal, it’s a real thing to show that we are not limited by lines on a map and it gets us, again, thinking differently about the capacity problem and the timing and tempo problem for how we would do this at scale.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Very good. Well here’s a bit of a follow on for both Tom and Gonzo. B21’s envisioned as a dual capable conventional as well as nuclear mission long-range bomber that’s aimed to replace the B2. How does the B-21 stack up to the global operational demands that Armo just laid out?

Col. Mark Gunzinger (Ret.):

Yeah, you want to go first?

Okay, B-21 is America’s China Deterrence bomber, no question about it. The combination of payload, range, survivability will allow us to respond to a short notice scenario where China invades Taiwan or pick another scenario to begin to thwart their campaign plan to defeat their campaign. You mentioned dual capability. There’s something else going on here and that is China is building up its nuclear warhead inventory.

Now Admiral Charles Richard said that frankly we’re in a China is in a strategic breakout with regard to their nuclear weapons. General Cotton made the point during his confirmation hearing that frankly China is quite obvious that they’re not building a minimal nuclear deterrent. They have a triad as does Russia. We need to rethink our nuclear posture. Do we have the right posture today now that we’re facing two peers or maybe near peers? Peers in the future when it comes to nuclear weapons, how are we going to deter both of them? We might have to grow our nuclear forces. What’s the most cost effective way of doing that? Build more Columbia class submarines, which are horrendously expensive? Dig more holes in the ground for ICBM, and I love the GBS, I’m not saying that, but B-21’s would allow us to hedge against risk in the future, grow our nuclear deterrents if necessary. Plus they’re dual capable. We get the benefit of their conventional capabilities as well.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Okay, this question is for Ms. Johnson to start and then each of you…

Thomas H. Jones:

I was going to have some thoughts on that if that’s all right.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Didn’t mean to cut you off Tom.

Thomas H. Jones:

Fair enough. First of all, Global Strike Command was very clear on the requirements there. Looking for this platform in that transition that you mentioned general and working together with Global Strike Command and RCO, I think we made the platform that answers those questions. Gonzo, you’re far better at talking about nuclear force structure than I am. I’m just a nerd engineer. I’ll focus in a little bit more on some of the aspects we’ve attempted to address as we’ve developed a B-21 that we think is going to give the capability that Global Strike Command is asked for us focusing mainly on maintainability, survivability and data.

From a maintainability standpoint, it’s been very important to us right from the inception of this program to design a system, a weapon system that is capable as of operating as a daily flyer. We’ve had a real focus on maintenance from the start.

We actually today and for over a year now I believe have had members of global strike command maintainers with us in our facilities working side by side in the labs. We also have something we’ve talked about in the past called a highly immersive virtual environment, which you can basically go into a virtual reality space, work on maintaining the system, understand what things in the design need to change before you ever started. I’ll use the phrase bending metal, although we don’t bend too much metal on the program and are able to address those maintainability types of aspects there. I think that’s a big step. Now I said I wasn’t going to talk about survivability and I said I’m going to talk about survivability. Well obviously a great platform for operating in a highly contested environment, but specifically what I want to talk about is we took lessons learned from the B2 and other programs about the difficulty once again in maintaining stealth types of platforms.

Actually went out and looked at the major drivers on the B2 and right from the start had designed that, addressed those to make sure that we could once again live up to that ambition of being the daily flyer. Finally, went to talk a little bit about data yesterday we made an announcement at a media event that earlier on this summer we entered into an agreement with the government where we’re actually sharing program data in a common data environment. Which I think for a program of this scope and at this phase of the program, at least from our experience, it’s kind of unprecedented to have that type of shared access between our government partners and ourselves. And what that does is once again enables us to spot risk, to address risk, to burn them down, make sure we’ve got the right approach to verifying requirements and get this system operational as soon as we can.

We also talked about the fact that we were able to move the B-21 ground support system up to the cloud, which again we think is another great movement for the digital enterprise and for digital transformation. Because what that’s going to do is drastically reduced footprint at main operating bases and other deployment locations as well as driving down costs. Lots of different things we’ve taken, not just looking at it from a pure technical performance, but how can we make sure that for the men and women of Global Strike Command, we’re providing a platform that’s going to give them the operational utility that they need

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

And I will…

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Hope in there.

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

Back to Gonzo’s point about breakout in China, as Admiral Richard clearly spoke about with triads and you have two adversaries with real capabilities now. There is not a lot of history. History points us to some interesting studies on deterrents, but not a lot of the thinking right now has gotten us very far down the field on multi-polar deterrents having to deter two adversaries at the same time.

But one of the things that you’ll find is a common discussion point that we have to be able to do to be able to do multipolar deterrence is to be able to integrate that conventional and nuclear force activity such that there is no escalation for free. There is no escalate to win, there is no escalate to deescalate. And by having that baked in conventional nuclear integration, we literally are kind of taking that off the table. We have to do that so that we can further through the thought leadership of those in the room, but also the think tanks and our policy makers, how we get to that multi-polar deterrence future knowing right now we’ve got to be able to do things in a very predictable way in denied spaces.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

And that’s a panel subject all on its own and hopefully the folks recrafting the National Defense Strategy are taking that into consideration.

As I already previewed earlier, Ms. Johnson, this one’s for you to start, but I’d like everyone to chime in. Speed by which I mean the rapidly maturing and fielding of a B-21 force is obviously critical. The B-20’s going to soon reach its rollout as we heard this morning and first flight milestones. What’s the RCO doing to ensure the program continues to remain on track and on time? And should we be discussing today the need to increase the acquisition rate of B-21’s?

Melissa A. Johnson:

Okay, yeah. There’s a lot to unpack right there. Let’s kind of go back a little bit of, in my opening remarks I talked about a couple of the philosophy. How do you go fast? A lot of the going fast is really getting that initial decision to go. Well we’ve got that. We got on contract, we have a very stable requirement, and we have consistent funding. And those three things, it’s not magic, I mean it’s pretty simple recipe, but making sure that that can stay stable through the years does get more challenging as the years go on. And I think that the team overall, and it is only because of the partnership that we are able to be successful at that. I think that’s a key thing and that’s for any program, but I think B-21’s a great exemplar of that.

The second thing internally within the RCO, we’ve coined a term but it’s really been done over the past 19 and a half years and we coined the term active management. And really what that means is my team along with Tom’s team, along with Armo’s team are so close knit together. Again, it’s all kind of coming together as this partnership, but we are not just waiting for Tom’s team to send us information and then we are not just spending some time back in our own little enclave and then sending information back over to Tom or direction back over to Northrop. It is a daily interaction and that actively managing and really getting ahead of where are those risks going to start to manifest and how do we come up with the plans, not only just identify that a risk could manifest, but what is the plans to mitigate that and really get at that early.

And there’s a couple of things that the program really did in the very early days and I mentioned the sustainment piece kind of really laying in the foundation for how do we depot maintenance and sustain us for the long term. But even on the development piece, there’s some really key things we did with the company and one of them is how do we go and building the tooling and the processes so that you’re actually building the production asset. A lot of programs will build a lot of test assets or a couple of test assets first, you’ll test it out, you’ll see what goes right and what goes wrong and then you’ll make adjustments in the tooling to go build your production. That takes a lot of extra resources and time. And so we’ve been able to shrink down that time by starting right from the get go and it’s really been enabled by the digital engineering tools that the Northrop team has embedded into that process from day one.

And so when you kind of start building these things up upon each other, you really start to consolidate and get the most efficiency you can, knowing that there’s still systems engineering that has to go on. You mean we cannot break the laws of physics and there’s still going to be challenges, but you want to get yourself to the point where that team has enough information that we have stable requirements and that we have the tool sets between the production processes, the engineering digital, the digital engineering that you are enabled to go and solve any technical challenge that we could come upon. And so that allows us to stay on schedule and really kind of look for areas to scale to go faster.

Now if I kind of go a step further and start talking a little bit about how do we go faster in the future, can we increase that scale or increase that rate? When we look at the provisions that we’ve put into the program, I think we can always look at that, but you want to kind of get this on a solid foundation and once production aircraft start coming off the line, the team’s going to learn some things.

But because again, the foundation that we built, we can roll back those lessons learned into the system very quickly and through the open mission systems being able to modify things, if there is a requirement’s change, if there’s a new threat that comes along, if there’s modernization that we can continue to be able to move at a very rapid pace, compared to the way that we have done things years ago.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Nice job. Gonzo.

Col. Mark Gunzinger (Ret.):

Yeah, really quickly we’ve heard endo-paycom and the DNI talk about China might be ready to make a move on Taiwan 2027-2030 timeframe that’s going to occur at the same time we’re at a Nader in the size of our bomber force. If we allow the bomber ramp B-21 acquisition ramp to be reduced because that’s where the money is. We’ve all seen that happen program after program because once the acquisition begins, then that becomes a very lucrative target, just slides some money out and put it towards other capability, that is going to hurt our ability to deter or respond to a Chinese aggression. I call the B-21, the China deterrence bomb is not going to deter if it’s not on the ramp. We need to maximize our acquisition ramp and continue to flow the dollars toward that program and not allow the green eye shade folks to just cut a little bit here and there for other programs.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Armo and Tom, care to comment?

Thomas H. Jones:

I think Ms. Johnson did an excellent job covering most of the points I was going to hit. I just foot stomp one or two things here. The collaboration and the active contract management I think is a key feature and one of those things when I said it’s something unlike anything I’ve seen in my time in the industry that is only going to improve with this digital environment that we’re bringing on the ability to share digital data back and forth. I think that’s a very important element.

And at the other point that I think is really important is that building a first article that is production representative, and frankly I think that is a best practice we need to look at trying to perpetuate as we go and build other aircraft. There is a lot of time that can be lost in putting together prototypes that are at the end of the day, not very representative of the final thing that you need to build. And barring super sophisticated design, usually most of the problems you run into these programs are the basic manufacturability and the processes that you have to go into production. I think that is a great path that the RCO has enabled us to take on this program and again, the best practice we should really consider on future aircraft programs.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Very good. Here’s one on transitioning the force. Air Force currently plans to have the B-21 replace the B2, but as we all know, the Air Force is in desperate need from long range strike capacity given accelerating advanced threats during the transition period from the B2 to the B-21. What are some of the risks that you see in the long range strike mission area and do you have any recommendations on minimizing this risk by retrain retaining B2’s longer or building more B-21’s sooner?

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

I’ll take that one. As a MAJCOM a forced provider, we have to constantly assess what the future, what’s changing under our feet and how we address that. But I will say this, one of the things that allows us to understand that environment in ways maybe that we might not have in the past is our connectedness, not just to this team here, but across MAJCOMs. AMC, we have, there are dependencies from every MAJCOM into other MAJCOMs that if you don’t pay attention to them can bite you very hard. That transition piece as we get to B-21 is really driving us into understanding what are the expectations that PACAF has for us as far as tempo and number of targets like Gonzo points out.

But there are dependencies backwards through AMC and we’ve built some interesting relationships and partnerships there. As you look at how the conduct of a China fight would go down, there’s an insight force piece of that where SOC is very interested in connecting and understanding their environment in new ways, which is beneficial to us. That system connectedness really is important to understand that and characterize it and move forward together so that we don’t build ourselves handmade wooden shoes that don’t talk to other handmade wooden shoes.

Thomas H. Jones:

If I could add something on there also just as the prime on the B2 as well, obviously the decision of what happens with B2 is global strike command decision and we’re going to support that. That said, we are continuing to work on modernization of that platform. Recently, I think you probably saw the integration and test of a Jazzem ER. We’ve also brought in a radar assisted targeting system that is going to provide improved targeting and probably one of the things I’m most excited about, we talked about the open architecture to B-21, but we’ve been able to do a open mission system architecture that’s decoupling a lot of the mission systems avionics from the flight control, which means we have a platform that can be easily upgraded without affecting flight worthiness. If that desire is there to extend, we have a platform we think we can scale forward.

Col. Mark Gunzinger (Ret.):

If you’re in a hole, don’t dig it deeper. I’m a advocate of maintaining B2 in a force at least until the B-21 reaches IOC. Not doing for one swaps as soon as an operational B-21 hits the ramp. We already have a bomber force as too small, we already have a penetrating bomber force that really is a silver bullet force. We need to build up that capacity, especially in the late 2030s again to deter China, be prepared to respond, instead of making a resource driven decision to retire B2’s as B-21’s. Come on, let’s keep them in the force until 2030s, reduce that risk and then gracely retire them.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Okay, we’re coming in the final stretch here, so please I’d like to give you each an opportunity to answer this last one. And this is about advanced weapons. Our leaders, Air Force leaders and all of us recognize we need advanced weapons for our advanced aircraft and we’ve also heard people talk about the need for affordable mass. Could each of you give us your quick thoughts in terms of what kinds of weapons that would help maximize war fighting potential to B-21?

Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost:

The only thing I would add to that question actually is we need the right advanced weapons mix. Because a lot of times if you get to the, what’d you call them, a green eye shade folks, right? I won’t say that, but I think that’s what you call them. They might tell you, “Hey, you need x thousand of this.” Right? That answers your question. I will tell you categorically it does not answer your question. You need the right advanced weapons mix and preferably that’s a joint problem. We can capitalize on money that is being spent in the Department of Defense, not just in the Air Force. And there are capabilities that where you have to compress time very quickly to make an effect very quickly. And then there are times you need mass and tempo and if you sequence and build that portfolio properly, then it opens up new possibilities to do things that may not require as many weapons and is a cost efficient answer to that question.

Melissa A. Johnson:

Yeah, I think to tag on a little bit to what Armo and even before what Tom was talking about with open mission systems, I think on the acquisition side, we are really kind of the enabler to whatever that requirement turns out to be and having as much flexibility and giving the MAJCOM, giving global strike as many options as they can, but that open mission systems. And really again, it’s all about how you build that foundation. If you don’t build that in up front, you know can always do it later. We’ve shown that through many programs, but it takes a lot longer and becomes much more cost prohibitive.

I think what we’ve done, and then obviously the operational imperatives are really driving some of this right now. We’re already looking at what type of advanced capabilities. Even a year ago we laid out a modernization plan that Chief Brown signed off on. That was a combined effort between us in global strike and really kind of been able to again, lay that foundation for when that time comes and the resources are there, we are ready to take action right away instead of, to Gonzo’s point. You don’t have to study it for the next five to seven years. Again, that’s really where a lot of time gets expended. If we’ve done all that work up front, then it’s just an execution issue.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Okay, go ahead Tom, real quick.

Thomas H. Jones:

Yeah. Couldn’t have said it better. We’re here to implement requirements and I think Ms. Johnson hit the nail on the head.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.):

Okay. I’ll just say, do we have sufficient weapons in the inventory to deal with a hundred thousand aim point campaign? That’s a good final parting thought to think about. We’ve come to the end of our panel, really appreciate all our panelists for being here today, and we thank all of you and for what you do to defend our nation. For all you in the audience, thanks for being here. The next discussion here in Potomac C, you’ll be Cyber Technology. And with that, have a great aerospace power kind of day.

Nice job.

Watch, Read: ‘The Digital Domain, Intelligence Operations, and Targeting’

Watch, Read: ‘The Digital Domain, Intelligence Operations, and Targeting’

Department of the Air Force CIO Lauren Barrett Knausenberger moderated a discussion on “The Digital Domain, Intelligence Operations, and Targeting” with Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback, deputy chief of staff for ISR and cyber effects operations; Maj. Gen. Kevin Kennedy, director of operations for U.S. Cyber Command; Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence, Space Force, Sept. 20, 2022, at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible by the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. Good morning. How’s everybody doing out there? All right. Okay. We have people very excited about intelligence operations targeting and the digital domain and we are well aware we are the last thing between you and lunch. So we’re going to have a good panel here today.

I’m Lauren Knausenberger. I’m your DAF Chief Information Officer and more importantly, I have with me here today, Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback from the A26… All right. We got a fan favorite. Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy from the 16th Air Force. All right. Last but not least, Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon from the S2. All right. We got some Space Force in the house. That’s always good. It’s always good. All right. So let’s jump right into it. Starting with Leah, would love to have you guys just introduce yourselves a little bit more. You’re all pretty new in your new jobs. What’s hot as you’re coming into your role and tell this audience something that they don’t know about you.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

No. You told us you weren’t going to ask that question. All right. Thanks for having us to the AFA crowd and everyone, thanks for being here today. We weren’t too sure it was going to be full but appreciate that it is because intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, those are all things that are in now in my portfolio as the A26 and I know those things are all important to you. I could probably actually wrap all of those things up into information warfare and then add on a little bit of that but I’m not going to talk too much about information warfare today.

What I really want to talk about is about intelligence and targeting, the intelligence that is required in every domain, not just the cyber domain to actually get to prosecute targets or get to the commander’s intent. And so, that’ll be a big part of, I think, my conversation and piece to this today.

I have been in the job for about seven weeks now. Back at the Pentagon… Well, I mean I’ve been at the Pentagon a number of times now so that’s not so great but it is nice to be home back in the Air Force. So Greg is doing the job that I was doing just a few weeks ago and it was absolute privilege and an honor to help the Space Force stand up. So if you’re a Guardian out there, good luck to you. I’m really excited for the Space Force and where it goes.

However, I know we’ve got a lot of challenges in the Air Force and specific to my portfolio, we got a lot of things to get to. I will tell you one thing that you might not know about myself is that, or about me, is that I completed a full Iron Man about 10 years ago. So I can’t even say that I have a triathlon card anymore. It’s been so long but it’s not something that I tell folks too much anymore but I think it’s 112 miles on the bike, 2.4 miles in the swim, and a marathon. I tell you that, it takes a lot to be able to do that. Greg knows it as well, the commitment, the lonesome training that you do, but part of a team if you get to be part of a team. And so, I wrap that into the commitment that I have to what we’re doing in National Defense as part of that team and the commitment to intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, as well as cyber and communication so that’s me. Thanks.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. That’s awesome and I didn’t know that about you either. We have a good crowd. All right. Trap, over to you.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

All right. Thanks, Lauren. Again to echo, I really appreciate everyone coming here to hear our discussions about the importance of targeting, understanding the cyber domain, and really how we’re supporting our CNAF, CFAX, and really bringing effects upon the adversaries as they threaten our national interest across the globe.

Been in the job about 60 days now with the 16th Air Force folks. There we go. All right. We got a few here. And so, for those that aren’t completely familiar with our NAF, we have nine wings, one center, and OC and two really close partners across ACC and the air staff being NASIC and the Spectrum Warfare Wing. So that’s really the capability that comes together in 16th Air Force as the Information Warfare Numbered Air Force.

To echo Gen. Lauderback’s points, not focused necessarily directly on IW today but if we don’t have good targeting, we don’t understand what the adversary is doing and we’re not aligning it with the commander’s intelligence requirements, then we’re not going to be able to produce outcomes for information warfare either. So I think that’s tremendously important as we think through on this.

For my remarks today, I’m going to focus mainly on three of our wings, the 70th, the 363rd, and the 480th and the distributed common ground system and how that is really our engine that helps with that process as we support the various CFAX across the globe. As far as something to know about me, I can’t compete with the triathlon because I swam a mile once and it took me an hour and 20 minutes. We can talk about that later but I did it. So there’s resilience there but I could barely walk. But anyway, something about me is I used to be the backup quarterback from New England Patriots. Just kidding.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. Should I let him off the hook? I’m hearing no. We need a real thing.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

A real thing.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

So I grew up in a small town in Putnam, Connecticut, about 8,000, used to be a mill town. Not very big. Two stoplights but the most famous citizen for those with kids there is Gertrude Warner who wrote the Boxcar series books from Northeastern Connecticut. So if you have little kids, they’re still fantastic books and I highly recommend them. If you’re ever in Putnam, Connecticut, they got a nice little museum.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Awesome.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. Well done.

Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon:

Hey, good morning. I’m Greg Gagnon. I’m the S2 of the United States Space Force. Many of you know this but I’ve been the backfill for Gen. Lauderback three times in my career so I feel like that’s a little bit of a train that continues. But I will tell you, last October, after 27 years in the Air Force, I raised my right hand like you saw five soldiers do this morning and I raised my right hand to join the Space Force. So crossed over to the Space Force in October. It’s been an absolute honor. I finished my joint assignment and then had the opportunity to follow Gen. Lauderback one more time. There will not be another following back into the Air Force but it’s been really great and what drove me to want to make that shift was the opportunity to help stand up something new, to help shape a brand new element of the world’s greatest intelligence community, ours, and to be the 18th member of that.

So that has taken my initial time with a lot of up and out activities from the Pentagon and it’s been a real blessing to be here and to be here this week with all of my brothers and sisters of the last three decades. So a little bit about myself that you may not know but Toupe knows and many of you who are close know, I’m the baby of eight kids. So I grew up outside of Boston but the baby of eight kids, explains why I eat so fast. So when you sit down, I get it all there and I eat too fast and my wife tells me it’s incredibly impolite but I’m working on it and I continue to be a work in progress.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

Also, for those that don’t know, Gen. Gagnon’s, a major general select for these offers. Congratulations there. Well done, Greg.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. We have quite the panel for you here today but it’s always good to start with why. I’m sure you guys have read that book as well and our why, a big part of that is starting with the threat. So we’re going to start with the threat today and I want to send it over to Gen. Lauderback. So you are focused on threats in US national security, let’s talk about China and Russia for a moment. You know what, I’ll just leave it open to you. What are the principal threats? How do you see us deterring our adversaries in the digital domain? You can take that where you want to.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Yeah. Absolutely. Thank you, Lauren. And so, I know Greg will riff off of this for sure and you’re welcome too, Trap, too. Actually yesterday, you probably heard the secretaries talk about the threat brief that he takes over to the hill. And so, Greg and I actually did that last week and previous in our positions Gen. O’Brien and I did that about 10 or 12 times over the last year and it is all about China. It’s the scary China brief. It is, I think, instrumental in educating. It’s not just about educating members within Congress or the staff members there but it’s also educating just the American public as to the modernization that China has done over the last really 20, 25 years. It’s pretty stark. Of course, I won’t be able to talk about any of those details in this session today but I do think that I take to heart exactly what the secretary mentions when he talks about China China China and the One Team, One Fight.

I do think that we have to understand what it is that the Chinese or the PRC are… How it is that they might fight, what their capabilities are, and guess what? How do you know all of that? It’s through your intelligence professionals, whether that’s the intelligence community or those of us within the Department of Defense. I mean, there’s a whole host of folks that will add information to what we know about the Chinese and how they might fight. But I want to, I’ll let Greg continue because he can talk all day about China’s posture in space or Russia’s posture in space, but what I would tell you is that intelligence is a war fighting function. It is one of the seven war fighting functions within joint doctrine.

And so, we use the term ISR a lot in the Air Force and we started to use that in the Space Force. Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance is in operation. I mean, if you read that within doctrine or within writing, it’s an operational term because there’s action. You have to go out and survey or you have to go survey or you have to go out and do reconnaissance in order to get intelligence, right? And so, I use it more as a messaging campaign so that folks understand that the threat picture just does not show up on your door. You don’t just get the 3-1 Vault 2, somebody has to do that. That’s probably about 75% of the people that are in here is collecting that data, making sense of that data, turning it into intelligence. And then providing that to our decision makers.

I see Gen. Kelly in the front row here as the commander of ACC. He needs or Trap needs intelligence every day about capabilities and intent. Now, we have tagged on, not necessarily in doctrine, but we are starting to tag on the T for targeting. So ISRT which I think is a good thing and the reason why is because it’s not just about intelligence providing predictive intelligence or I&W, indications and warning, but there is an end to this, right? The end is that we want to have an effect. If Gen. Kelly wants to have an effect either kinetic or non-kinetic, he’s got to have that intelligence that is helping to do target development years before that conflict even starts. And so, there’s a lot that’s packed into ISRT. I’m glad that we’re starting to use that. But aside from that, Greg, you want to talk anything about the threat?

Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon:

Just a few points to bring forward. We have all been tremendously busy doing our nation’s work for the last two, almost two and a half decades, often away from home. But while we’ve been away projecting power for our nation, someone’s been studying us and those students and those scholars live in Beijing. They’ve watched how we operated. They’ve looked at doctrine and concepts like we had when some of us were younger called Joint Vision 2020. They took Joint Vision 2020 as their blueprint and call it System Destruction Warfare. It’s how they bring together power projection capabilities for their joint force. They also looked at Joint Vision 2020 and they said, “How do I defeat it?” I attack information, I attack nodes, and I attack decision makers and that is the unifying concept of a power projecting PLA. The PLA is the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party.

They’re not the army of the people of China and people forget that. The PLA is now formidable, more surface combatants, more submarines, more SAMS than the United States. They are rapidly expanding in space and what can space do for a power projecting military? I don’t need to tell this audience. You know that allows you to see further, sense at greater distance, and with the correct position navigation and timing, strike before they can touch you. That is what they are building in outer space.

They reorganized their military six years ago and in that reorganization they created the strategic support force. In that strategic support force is this room, it is their cyberspace operators and their space operators. In that strategic support force, which stole resources, if you will, from the army, from the PLA Navy and the PLA Air Force, they gained people in kit. That kit in outer space since they stood up the Space Force is now 320% greater. There are over 600 satellites in outer space. Many of those satellites over 260 are designed to look at us and our brothers and sisters as they move across the Pacific. Why? To provide warning and to provide strike capability if directed by leadership. They have a formidable space layer. One that before they did this was really us who could do global reach, who could do global power. This room could do that. There’s another room now and it’s in Beijing.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

From the operational perspective as we look in 16th Air force, and I couldn’t agree more with the comments of the two generals to my right, is that it’s a operational activity. And so, when folks ask me what does that mean as an operational activity, it’s adversary focused. That’s what it is. It’s a thinking about how do we bring effects to bear upon the adversary. When we’re talking about the PRC and Russia and thinking about the spectrum of conflict, we clearly are in competition with both. We clearly are in crisis right now with Russia given the Russia Ukraine invasion. And so, they think that, “What’s the dominant activity that governs these two conditions?” The dominant activity is informational warfare and specifically ISR operations and cyber operations. This is where they really come together in our force in 16th Air force and our operators are looking and focused on that.

In the cyber domain, the aspect of it, we are being targeted, you, personally, are being targeted right now by our adversaries in the cyber domain. Whether it’s via social networks or your personal devices or the information that you’re using to accomplish your mission. PRC and Russia are very interested in that. If we’ve seen the escalation of capabilities by the PRC that Gen. Gagnon mentioned meant much of that was enabled by their ability to take our intellectual property and scale it into real strategic capabilities for their nation. We need to stop that and that’s where the cybersecurity aspects of our NAF come into play.

And then, with this respect to the information operations and the ISR professionals in our NAF is really understanding the adversary to the point of that we can bring effects to bear as also to the point of understanding where they’re trying to go and we can thwart their activities as we go forward. As Gen. Lauderback mentioned, every single day across 16th Air Force, we focus on the threat first thing every day.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. Thanks, Trap. We’re going to stay with you for a minute because we’ve just heard about the scary China brief. We’ve heard how the threat is changing. You spoke recently about DCGS’s transformation in light of our shift to a near-peer competitor. Can you expand on what that looks like?

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

Absolutely. Thanks, Lauren. I’ll ask Gen. Lauderback and Gen. Gagnon, the two of ISR professionals that have actually served in DCGS, so if you have comments as we’re going forward, I understand and appreciate that if you’d be gentle with me. But as we’re going forward on this enterprise, what we tell you so the DCGS enterprise was optimized for the wars where you’re fighting in the Middle East. And then, about two years ago, Air Combat Command and 16th Air Force made an affirmative decision that it was time to evolve the enterprise to make sure that we could bring capabilities to better… Rather than a sensor or aircraft focused type of alignment of our Airmen to one that is a problem-centric focused alignment. And so, that was the big idea and the why is like, “How do we bring more capability insight to generate outcomes for our senior leaders?”

And so, from the national defense strategy all the way down to our combat commanders to our CFAX and into our AOCs, to our squadron level folks that are performing this function across. So that was the idea is like, “How do we make our information that we’re providing, our insights that we’re providing more relevant to what the senior leadership is doing versus just the tactical execution that we got highly skilled at as we were fighting the war on terror and focused on EO threat?”

And so, there are two key organizational elements that were designed to help this. The first one is the linkages to the CFAX which is our mission management teams. These are the linkages that make sure that the air operation centers across our various CNAFs have that linkage into our DCGS enterprise and so they can make sure their private intel requirements are being pushed into the enterprise that we have across our NAF.

The second key and really the tactical edge is the analysis and exploitation teams so this is where the rubber meets the road. The design is roughly 15 Airmen, 2 officers, 3 senior NCOs, 10 other Airmen that are looking across all source intelligence products, intelligence sensors, and to really focus on the problem versus, “What can you find from Sensor X that staring at this part of the world?” to versus, “What do you know about Russian intent and activity in southern Ukraine?” And then, that would be a requirement we would then push to use safely as we look through in China, really bring to bear the entire capability of the enterprise.

Also, with having that kind of focus in the enterprise, the 480 is able to pivot across the enterprise and have backups. If a DCGS is over resourced, over taxed, our total force partners can bring that to bear as well as that alignment and they can use their expertise and ability to fuse all those types of all source intelligence to bring those insights to bear. It’s been bearing fruit and as you heard Gen. Hecker talking yesterday from the main stage, I think USAIF is more than happy with the results that we’re seeing with that evolution. As I visited there just a couple weeks ago, it’s really some motivated Airmen that are on mission having a real impact in directing our vital national insurance and holding the NATO coalition together.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

I would just say I took a briefing from Gen. Kennedy’s teams, a couple of the wing commanders, just last week I think it was, and trying to get educated, re-informed on what we’re doing from an ISR perspective, especially within the DCGS. I was, I won’t say blown away, but encouraged very much so of these AETs and where it is that we want to go. We can’t just do PED. There is a certain amount of PED that still has to happen, there’s no doubt about that because of the capabilities that we fly. But it’s got to be more than just a small numbers of folks doing PED alone, that stove pipe. It’s all about fusion. I would say, we see this across all of our services in the defense intelligence enterprise, okay? So that’s all of the military intelligence folks as well as NGA, NSA are considered part of that DIE.

I mean, we all need to be talking about fusion. We recognized this during 9/11 as a failure of being able to do that fusion and speak across lines. And so, that’s what I think folks need to be thinking about. This is an evolution of over 20 years of getting to a point of being problem centric and fusing as much intelligence as we can together.

There was one other point I wanted to make about that. Ah. Yes, it is. Those AOCs that they’re supporting, okay? So it’s not DGS supporting DGS, right? Again, this goes back to ISRT, back to an effect that you want to have or the information that you want to give to the CFAC or maybe it even goes up to the combatant commander or the JTF. Those AOCs that we have built today do not have a large enough intelligence manpower to do the things that we need to do in every single one of those divisions that’s within the AOC. So I see really great things that are happening and I look forward to us getting faster and much more mature as we build out those AETs so well done to you and your team.

Lauren Knausenberger:

Greg, I have a follow up question for you. So in your recent remarks you talked about the unblinking eye the US Space Force has trained on our top pacing adversary and would love to hear a little bit more about that and how we’re going to maintain space dominance.

Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon:

So that was a wonderful misquote so I’m glad I made the press but I did talk about the unblinking eye and the unblinking eye was talking about what we’ve just seen in Ukraine. We have seen the power of the commercial space industry brought to bear for Ukrainian forces and brought to bear for foreign policy. In the past, the United States intel community and our national leadership have told our allies what we thought was going to happen. Our allies didn’t always believe us and they had reason to doubt us based off of past performance. But based on this year when we told them there was proof that we could drop on the table and what we dropped on the table were wonderful images of, not wonderful images, horrible images of Russian BTGs just basically lined up against Ukraine. So the story became way more powerful when you had the proof of commercial assets that are at unclassified levels.

The commercial space industry is expanding immensely and this impacts DCGS. When I was a young lieutenant, the core value proposition was collection. You wanted to get your image on the target deck so that you could do something and figure something out whether it was warning or targeting. Today, the core value proposition is no longer collection. We have plenty of collection whether it’s airborne, space-based, or cyber-based. What we need is sense making or fusion or analysis, that is the core value proposition moving forward for an intelligent service. That’s what your AETs are inside DCGS. They’re the first vanguard of going after that as the value proposition. The challenge inside the department is explaining that to people when people want to minimize manpower, right? Because manpower still matters and I am a believer, and I’m pivoting a little bit, but I’m a believer in AI and ML but I’m also a realist.

In my realism, I tell you that today we have this much data. Has anyone seen a projection where this stays where it’s at? Where do we go here? Do we go here? Do we go here? So our value proposition moving forward as a workforce is how do we use those new tools to help get through that new data, right? Maybe not continue to put a resource manpower constrain on our services but how do we use that to keep pace? In warfare, there’s fast but what really matters is relative speed, right? We always talk about going fast. What matters is that you’re outpacing, out-thinking, out-deciding your adversary so your pace setter can be your adversary.

As we pivot to China, what gives me concern is how fast they’re moving. We have to tell that story because that’s the story that I think people who make resource decisions need to hear and they need to understand that warfare in the future is not less intel, it’s more sense making and probably more intel.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Yeah. I’m just going to pivot off of that or riff off of that for a second. That ROIs that the secretary has developed for us and we’ve done all of this fantastic analysis, these operational imperatives, I want you to know that intel is foundational to every single one of them. We are not going to be successful in any of those OIs if we don’t actually understand the threat.

The B21 as an example, you think, “Well, how is intel foundational to our B21 operational imperative?” Well, there’s this thing called acquisition intelligence where you’re trying to predict what does the threat look like if that’s 10 or 15 years from now and how is it that the B21 might be able to mitigate that threat, right? So just as an example, that’s one to all of those operational imperatives.

So I want the intel folks in here to understand that you are in every single one of those operational imperatives. Even though it might not say it, but truly you are. I think one of my charges that I’m going to take on, I haven’t cleared this all with my team yet, but is we have spent a lot and we talk a lot about the platforms, the S and the R of ISR. And so, I really want to start talking and I want to get some resources. I want to show, exactly to Gen. Gagnon’s point, that we’re going to need more intelligence in the future and so, how do we make that happen?

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. So you all are teeing me up pretty well for the question that we need to answer, which is are we well postured to pivot to a wartime posture with a peer adversary? If we’re not, then what has to happen for us to get there?

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Okay, I’m going to go first. The answer is no, we’re not ready. Though I was really encouraged by Gen. Brown’s comments yesterday of we can do this, right? We just need to pivot us all to where it is that we think that we need to go which I think these operational imperatives… I mean, the SecAF’s vision, he’s got it right as well as the resources when those turn to those capabilities.

One of the things that I do want to say here though is that, and it’s not necessarily on the intel side, I think I’ve made my points, but on the cyber side and then on electronic warfare. So the other two huge items that are in my portfolio within the A26. On the cyber side of the house, if you are unfamiliar, I want you to understand where we’re moving with the cyber mission analysis task order. We are doing a lot of great work to understand what it is that we need to do from a cyber effects standpoint but also a communication standpoint.

I was on the air staff when we merged the 2 and the 6 and I realize now that we probably did not name it correctly. We called it the A26 and it’s ISR and Cyber Effects Operations. When somebody hears about cyber effects operations, I think that they immediately go to offensive or defensive and hackers, right? That does not speak to the 90% of the other communicators that we actually have. Running comm squadrons, delivering your iPhone to you as a general officer or wing commander, those types of things. All of those functions that happen at the comm squadron, we aren’t… Well, I want to make sure that we’re messaging to those folks as well that this cyber mission analysis task, the 47 tasks that are in that, are going to get after that entire portfolio so that we can have a resilient communication structure or we determine how do the comm folks out at the bases actually operate within agile combat employment or the ACE concept.

So we’ve got a lot of work but I want you to know there’s a lot of brain power that is going towards this right now and we’ve had a couple of winds. Just recently, the SRBs that are going out to the 1B4s, so these are our, I call them the ethical hackers who are playing in somebody else’s pool. So one 1B4s are getting their bonuses put back in. 1D7s, we got a little bit of an increase in some of the SRB as well. There’s a number of things and a few other quick wins that I could talk about but I don’t want to take up all the time.

And then, the last thing that, I’m sorry I do have to talk about electronic warfare or electromagnetic spectrum operations, EMSO, we are nowhere near where we need to be with that. And so, we are just starting the sprint. It’s with the acquisition community, it’s with the operational community so ACC is taking a lead in this and then those of us on the staff to determine what are the gaps, what do we think that we need, what are the requirements, what are the gaps, how do we go about funding this. And so, you might see this turn into another operational imperative a year from now or something of that nature but it is something that we do not have a deep bench on at all and we’ve got to develop that so that’s one way of getting after the threat.

Lauren Knausenberger:

I want to piggyback on one thing that you just mentioned. The greater focus on the cyber, the communications, Airmen, and we’ll talk about people in a moment too, but Gen. Lauderback shared that ISR was foundational to all of the seven topics and I don’t think we’ve said that in enough rooms yet. We’ve said it in different rooms but I’ll repeat for this room that cyber and IT are foundational across all seven of those initiatives. The secretary just came down to share with our cyber and IT force down in Montgomery, Alabama. But for the communicators, the cyber and IT folks out there, I want to know that you are foundational across all of those things. Secretary knows it as well so thanks for that.

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Yeah. 100%.

Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon:

So if I could, I’d just talk a little bit about one of the great advantages we have over our pacing threat and those great advantages are in this room. There is a 2 million person PLA armed forces on active duty and that outnumbers us but no one in this room is a conscript, right? Everyone raised their right hand to choose to join and in that willingness comes motivation. We see this when we watch foreign adversaries and how they perform in battle. As I look across this room, I have many friends in this room. There are many very well decorated combat veterans in this room. Another great advantage of the US military over some foreign militaries to include our pacing threat.

Those things, those intangibles matter at the point of contact. Many of us know that and that is a great strength for us. Whether we are targeting a $2 billion precision-guided munition or a $2 million precision-guided munition, we are generally doing that as a force based off of mensurated coordinates from a 26 year old staff sergeant because we trust them that much because our force is that proficient. That’s a huge advantage and if I’m playing cards against somebody in the PLA strategic Space Force, that is my pocket aces.

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

All right. Lauren, with respect to the readiness question, first, are we ready for conflict? I completely agree with Gen. Lauderback. We’re on a good path but we have to stick to the strategy as Gen. Lord said in the other room and make sure that we fund resource and continue to move out.

With respect to competition, we are in a level of conflict today, every day as we mentioned. The PRC and Russia have a different worldview and our Airmen and 16th Air Force are out there every day either hunting, exposing, contesting their activities every day, specifically in the cyber domain, ISR, EW, and IO across our Numbered Air Force as we’re looking forward to do that. But then, as we think to the next, we’re ready to defeat them. One of the key things that the recent crisis in Europe has shown us is that from a cyber perspective, we need to expand our ability to leverage the whole defense intelligence enterprise.

What I mean by that is that traditional targeting and mensurated coordinates are great, difficult to target off that from a cyber perspective but what we need to understand is what are the networks, what is the space that they occupy from an IP perspective, what are the alternative access means that I have to either get in their C2 system or their weapon systems. As working close partnership with DIA, NASIC, and others, we’re starting to get more fidelity in that with respect to our AF cyber role and with US cyber command to understand, “Okay, how do we gain access to these capabilities?”

So first, we can gain more insight, we can expose malicious and malign activity, we can contest disinformation but also, how do we make that leap into the weapon system? So if we go into a hot crisis or conflict that we’re able to bring those effects to bear, on timing a tempo that matters for the commander of the conflict at that time. And so, as we look and expand upon those things, that’s one of the areas we’re looking. From us, from a perspective, from ISR, the people in this room like Gen. Gagnon are our key asymmetric advantage and also, the people on the other side is their vulnerability. And so, the people that are accessible either for them or for access or to get into their capabilities. And so, that’s where we focus in 16th Air Force.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. We’re already headed toward people and I know this audience wants to hear what’s going on with people. Trap, let’s start with you. What are the skills and capabilities that you need from this force to be able to meet that pacing threat?

Lt. Gen. Kevin Trap Kennedy:

So I think there’s three that go in addition to our core values, characteristics that if I were to mentor a young officer, enlisted or civilian, that’s coming into our force and whatnot. The first one is, I need problem solvers, right? Folks that can see complex challenging problems, not looking to simplify them, looking to solve them and take them into pieces and how do we do that.

One of the other key is critical thinking. This is the key for the disinformation fight that we’re in, is really thinking critically both as a citizen also as an Airman or a Guardian to understand, “What is the adversary intent here? Where’s that information getting in the environment? How can I contest this on behalf of our nation?”

Finally, as we think about multi-capable Airmen, there’s going to be a level of self discipline and rigor that you’re going to have to hold ourselves accountable to. What I mean by that is the process we had before of we developed you very finely with a well defined enterprise to give you one skill and a very specific AFSC to accomplish that task 100% all the time. First time, every time, right way, right reasons. Now, we’re asking you to do other tasks because we need you to, as we go across the force. One of those would be digital fluency, not just for the cyber folks, not just for the ISR folks, but for every Airman. We’re going to have to be rigorous with our time and hold ourselves accountable to making sure that we’re using our really critical and finite amount of training time that we have to make sure that we’re getting as skilled as possible so we are ready to compete and defeat our adversaries.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. Lightning round with three minutes left. Leah, how are we going to make sure that we have the cyber and our ISR forces ready to support that mission?

Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback:

Yeah. Thanks, Lauren. I’d say there’s quite a bit of that within our CMA task board. Certainly on the cyber side of the house, I think there are already things that we’re doing. We know that we’ve got an FGO shortfall as an example of about 300 folks that we have empty billets and we don’t have anybody to put into those. And so, right now we’ve just started with A1, a grade review to understand if those truly do need to be 04, 05s or can they be senior 03s? Can they be a master sergeant? So we got to do that work.

Next part is the educational part then is… So we moved to this multi-capable Airmen concept and yeah, the digital fluency, we all need to have that. And so, we just briefed the SecAF just last week on how it is we’re actually, I think maybe stealing a play out of the Space Force playbook, as to how do we get these folks to understand more of digital fluency and not just the stovepipe what it is that they’re working on, on a daily basis.

And then, lastly is the retention, I would say, is how do we retain those folks? And so, we had some wins from a perspective of the SRBs lately but we need to look holistically at how is it that we keep Airmen and Guardians doing the things that they do for our nation. That this is an important business and we absolutely need every single one of you to stay, to get better at what you’re doing, to become expertise, and then move into doing other things, right? That multi-capable Airmen that we’re looking for in the future.

Brig. Gen. Greg Gagnon:

I would tell you, at birth, the Space Force framed the discussion a little bit differently. The Space Force is a digital service and digital fluency is expected of every Guardian. It’s not just Guardians who are the cyber Guardians, it’s every Guardian because everything we do is a remote op and every remote op is either connected through RF or ones and zeroes. It’s that simple.

So we have taken out a course ware with Udacity with the Department of the Army and we’re expecting people to take those courses as they articulate through jobs to gain the right skills for particular jobs that we’re coding each individual job. I took my first course about two weeks ago. One of seven is done. So next year, ask me what I’m on and I should be seven of seven but that’s how we are tackling this. To pretend we don’t live in the cyber age is ridiculous. It’s all of our job and it’s all of our job to protect our information at home, protect our information at work, and continue to do those proper things that make sure we don’t give advantages to the adversary. We called it OpSec in the old days. It extends to the digital world today.

Lauren Knausenberger:

All right. We could have talked another 30 minutes easily on these and the many other topics that we had teed up but we are out of time. Thank you all so much for coming. Let’s give it up for our panel.

Watch, Read: ‘People First: Spouse Employment, Health, and a Better Life’

Watch, Read: ‘People First: Spouse Employment, Health, and a Better Life’

Mollie Raymond, spouse of Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, moderated a discussion on “People First: Spouse Employment, Health, and a Better Life” with USSF’s Paula Krause, resilience and wellbeing program manager; Christine Heit, holistic health assessment lead; Jason Lamb, talent strategist; and Christina Parrett, director of civilian policy and programs, Sept. 20, 2022, at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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Voiceover:

People First spouse employment, health, and a better light. Ms. Christine Heit is a holistic health assessment lead for the United States Space Force. Her professional background includes mental health, sexual assault prevention and response, primary prevention, and public health. Ms. Heit’s efforts in overall health will lead to a better life for our Guardians, Airmen, and their families. Mrs. Paula Krause is the Resilience and Wellbeing Program Manager for the Space Force. She manages numerous programs including interpersonal violence prevention, suicide prevention, and the Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Program. As the sexual Assault Prevention and Response program manager for Space Force Field Command, she was responsible for planning and implementing programs that will ultimately strengthen the Guardian and Airmen culture within the Space Force.

Mr. Jason Lamb is a retired colonel and talent strategist for the Space Force. He wrote and implemented the Space Force’s first ever Human Capital Strategic Plan, The Guardian Ideal. This plan guides how the newest service will acquire, develop, engage, promote, employ, and cultivate resilience in its members. According to Mr. Lamb, the only way we are going to be successful is with our teams and those teams are based on the Guardian commitment. Mrs. Christina Parrett is the director of civilian policy and programs for the United States Space Force. She implemented a workforce plan designed to maximize existing alternative personnel systems to position Space Force to be more competitive in the market for top talent. Her efforts are creating unique opportunities for not only the military and civilian Guardians, but for spouses and family members as well.

Kari Voliva:

Welcome friends. We are so happy that you’ve joined us for this very special session today. I am Kari Voliva, AFA Vice President for Member and Field Relations. I am honored to introduce our moderator for today’s People First Spouse Employment, Health, and a Better Life Panel, Mrs. Mollie Raymond, spouse to Chief of Space Operations General John Jay Raymond. Mrs. Raymond has accompany General Raymond on 17 assignments around the globe in 35 years. Mrs. Raymond has long been a champion for military spouses and families working tirelessly to support them by promoting family engagements, building genuine connections, and creating a strong sense of community. She is an avid supporter of families through her selfless service in numerous military philanthropies and assistance programs. Mrs. Raymond, on behalf of your AFA family, welcome.

Mollie Raymond:

Katie, Is there a light here by chance? Yeah, it’s okay. That’s okay. That’s all right. No worries. Good morning. Thank you, Kari, for that wonderful introduction. If I’m a little distracted, it’s because I have this great new song that’s dancing in my head. I would love to just say thank you to everyone for being here today for our Space Force Panel, People First Spouse Employment, Health, and a Better Life. I’d like to start by saying a huge thank you to Air and Space Forces Association for including Guardian and Airman Spouses as attendees this year. If you are a military spouse, please stand up and let us give you and all of us a round of applause. As you all know, the Space Force is the newest service since the Air Force was established 75 years ago. Happy birthday to the United States Air Force.

With a new service comes new opportunities and new ways of doing things differently when it comes to people, Guardians, Airmen, civilians, and their loved ones. After all, people are our best asset. Today our goal is to talk about these new opportunities, especially what it means to families and spouses and loved ones. My husband Jay often says that with our smaller size, the Space Force can apply a bit more art than science when it comes to people. If that’s the case, I’m so excited about our panel of artists, subject matter experts on quality of life issues to include spouse employment, wellness and resiliency, and our core values in the United States Space Force, all contributing to a better life. Our panel members are forward thinking and they find solutions through creative ideas, innovation, and best practices in industry.

They are trailblazers changing the narrative on how a service can take care of its people. I’m honored to share the stage with them. We have Chris Parrett, Christine Heit, Jason Lamb, and Paula Krause. After I ask a few questions of our panel, we will open it up to you, the audience, so start thinking of your questions, don’t be shy, and we’ll give all the hard ones to Jason. I’m going to start with Chris. Chris, the Space Force is the smallest military department with a little under 16,000 Guardians and civilians in a very competitive, hard to fill career field. How do you acquire new talent?

Christina Parrett:

Oh, that’s fun. When I came into the Space Force about two and a half years ago, I looked at our skill set that we were going to be recruiting for and said, “Oh, okay, so we’re standing up a service in the middle of a pandemic and I have five of the hardest career fields that we know of in the workforce. This is going to be fun and how are we going to challenge and how are we going to compete?” And it’s not just competing with those that are called the service on the military side of the house. When you’re competing for talent on the civilian side of the house, there’s even more options throughout the federal government, throughout the private sector, all over the place as we’re competing. And so we got to thinking, all right, we’ve got to do this differently. We’ve got to be very bold.

We have to be very proactive about where we’re going to the talent. If we say we want top talent, we have to be going to the talent. And that was a really big founding principle. The other thing that we had to really look at was sources, sources of talent. And so I don’t believe that the federal government can’t compete for top talent. I absolutely believe it because I see a lot of it in here today. What I believe is that we have some processes that we’re not maximizing the available flexibilities that we had. And so that’s the other piece of it that we had to really get bold on how we were going to use these flexibilities that we already had afforded to us that we weren’t using the best we could. And so I looked to the authorities that we had, the sources, and looking to different sources that we hadn’t always tapped into.

And I will share a story very quickly when we say sources that when I came into the Space Force, I knew one of the things that our size was not going to… We were still going to have to answer how are we taking care of families? How are we taking care of spouses and employment? And as I was thinking about what is our position going to be and how are we going to articulate that, I met a spouse from the army that had just won an award for coding her own app. And I got the chance to talk to her and I said, “You’re a coder. What did you do?” She goes, “Well, I taught myself how to code.” Okay, first of all, you can teach yourself how to code? I did not know that. I thought that was amazing. And then I wanted to know why she wasn’t working for the federal government.

Why was she not already working for DOD? And she said, “Oh, that ship has sailed. I have tried so many times to do this and I could never get in. And once I did get in I could never get to the next assignment.” And I said, “That’s a missed opportunity right there and we’ve got to do better about that.” And so we were able to explore some opportunities there and start looking at how we’re taking care of spouses and family members better. And that just opened a whole new door for how we’re taking care of the family members while meeting a recruiting challenge with our hard to fill career fields.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Chris. And I would just like to say a big thank you to our entire S1 team. You started out with one Guardian in 2019 and now you’ve grown to nearly 16,000 in less than three years. To that S1 team led by Kate Kelly, I can’t thank you enough for your accomplishments and I want to say congratulations to all of you. Thank you very much. And Chris, in your answer you alluded to spouse employment and it is a real challenge for our military spouses, both in finding and retaining meaningful employment. It is a real quality of life and retention issue. We often have our employment interrupted while supporting our military member. How can the Space Force help spouses?

Christina Parrett:

Oh, another fun question that you hear quite a bit. And I will say I took my own personal experience of coming into the federal government after 123 job applications with a master’s degree with middle management experience and I took a GS5 position to become an assistant to learn HR all over again. And so that story has always stayed with me, but I always wanted to be in a position like today to be able to make that change and make that difference. And so coming into the Space Force, while we don’t have a lot of the traditional opportunities that you find on the base that are also not transferable, we do have an opportunity for careers and so we alluded to those five areas that the Space Force really hard to fill, but yet we have this talent source that we’re not tapping into well enough.

Can we and how do we, this is what we’re defining right now. We’ve launched a program called the Guardian Family Career Program and it’s career, it’s job, it grows. And we identify opportunities that are either transferable from base to base or that are remote telework. The pandemic has taught us that we can be flexible and productive in a virtual environment. And so taking those opportunities and being able to now match spouses with opportunities that are going to continue with them into their Guardians and while being able to still serve their service member. It’s been really great to see the initial successes of our first few placements and I look forward as we codify what our remote position is and what our telework position is to be able to have that program continue to grow. And I think that is one of the most meaningful things that we are able to do for family members if that’s the opportunity that they want and have that afforded to them because we have not set those conditions well.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Chris. I want to take an opportunity to mention how important it is to match those skill sets with opportunity and education for our spouses. And Chris and I recently learned about a program through Hiring our Heroes Chamber of Commerce called Career Forward. And these are the opportunity to earn Google Career certifications in those wonderful areas of project management, data analytics, digital marketing, IT support, user experience. And so thanks to Hiring our Heroes and Google. We decided that spouses have this opportunity and we need to promote this opportunity to get these certifications. On my social media I did a poll. I said, If you were to take one of these five certifications, which would you choose? Asking for a friend. And the next week our answers, we came back with the poll, the course that won was project management and then I asked who was going to do this with me? There’s a lesson here.

It’s one thing to just say these programs are out there, the resources out are out there. But when you say and invite spouses to join you, it just brings it to a different level and it says that hey, we can do this together. We can support one another and inspire one another. I’m proud to say that we have 90 spouses join me in this journey and that in about three to six months we will have a project management certification. And I’m really proud of it. It’s been so inspiring to me to get the emails from the spouses on why they’re choosing to do this. Spouses have been out of the workforce for a long time like me. It gives us courage. It gives us confidence to do this. And a lot of spouses said, kids are back at school or I’m an empty nester or I want to reenter the workforce, I want to do this, but I’m so grateful that I don’t have to do it alone. We’re really excited. It’s this Space Force cohort that Hiring our Heroes has helped us establish.

But we have more than space spouses, we have navy spouses, we have active duty members, we have Air Force spouses all, are welcome. And we’re going to have a study group and we’re going to have guest speakers. Hiring our Heroes has already had a quick orientation for us, but we have the support there to uplift and encourage one another to get through this and to have a current certification. We’re really excited and I want to say thank you to Chris because you were the one that just showed how much spouse employment means to the quality of life and you’ve been an inspiration to me, so thank you, Chris.

Christina Parrett:

Thank you.

Mollie Raymond:

And thank you to Hiring our Heroes and Google. The support is phenomenal. Next, Christine, would you explain holistic health and why is the Space Force moving towards a different model for physical fitness?

Christine Heit:

Absolutely. Thank you. I had the privilege roughly six months after I started with Space Force to have a conversation with Chief Toberman at an award ceremony. And I have been in the DOD for a long time. I came from Marine Corps. I’ve seen a lot of leaders and he said, “People first. Everyone always says mission first, but if you take care of the person, the mission takes care of itself.” Holistic health is focused on the person. What we do is we’re combining science and we’re combining the person-centered, person-focused approach to create something that promotes short and long-term health outcomes.

Instead of saying, Hey, a run will do this for your health, we looked into science to find out what does promote health. Holistic health assessment is focused on those short-term health outcomes to include helping somebody know what to eat for their body type, promoting consistent physical activity in line with the CSOs intent and the Guardian ideal, while also focusing on a person’s health after they take off the uniform. So much of what is pushed across the DOD is a one size fits all model and this is tailored and garnered to the individual.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Chris. We juggle so much in our lives that we often forget the importance of things that contribute to self care and continued wellbeing. And if you are educating Guardians on these health issues, I know families will reap the benefits. If we can avert a crisis to begin with, it helps all of us. Thanks, Christine. Jason, could you describe the Guardian Ideal and why the Space Force is going with this different talent management program?

Jason Lamb:

Because General Raymond told me to. General Raymond did a really, I’m not just saying this, he’s leaving, did a fantastic job of explaining the why of the Guardian Ideal and why we’re taking this approach. But you don’t start a new service every day. It was a new opportunity and my marching orders were very clear, Jason, relook everything. Work with the team and relook everything. Why are we doing what we’re doing? Very happy to take that type of order, a mission type order. And so we looked and said, okay, what is it that we’re actually trying to do here? We are trying to create high performing teams so let’s begin with the end of mind. Then we roll back to the beginning.

We created very intentionally a modern tailored approach that is looking for individuals with the right character, potential, and desire to serve as Guardians because we’re really willing to invest in them to develop them and place them in line with their personal professional goals as those evolve over time within the context of what the space force needs, so that when we develop them, when we place them, people are actually developed doing what they want to do instead of maybe just doing what they were told, which sometimes is necessary, but that’s not how you want to operate day to day because that isn’t how you get the best out of people. Why? To be a part of a high performing team because we absolutely need teams to defend and secure space for the nation and our allies.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Jason. Collaboration on teams is so very important and a lesson for all of us. It’s great to be part of a team. I love this question. Frequent moves is definitely a major challenge of a military lifestyle and family stability is a huge quality of life issue. What are you doing to improve stability and decrease the number of PCSs for Guardians?

Jason Lamb:

I love this question. And again, so much of what we do draws from our personal experience and we ask the question why. It’s very powerful and if you don’t have a satisfying answer, you need to go back and work it again. Being in the Air Force service I love, Happy birthday Air Force, my daughter lived in five states before she turned five. Why was that? Hugely disruptive. Hugely disruptive. And for what purpose. It’s disruptive. It hurts families but at least it’s expensive. If you want to do it, you should have a really good reason. Part of that mandate from General Raymond to say look at what we’re doing, why are we doing it? It all needs to serve a purpose. We need to be able to explain to our Guardians why we are doing what we’re doing. Especially when we have much fewer bases that we’re moving people to.

Are we really going to bounce people back and forth, back and forth? Are they going to own two houses and just rent them to each other when they’re moving? The going in position was, unless there was a really good justifiable reason to move somebody, don’t move them. It sounds basic, but if there’s still an opportunity for someone to professionally grow and meaningfully contribute to the mission, the person doesn’t want to move, or there’s not some other factor driving it. We really are trying to take into the consideration what is going on with families and Guardians at different ages and stages. As a colonel, all my fellow colonels and I love to complain about, or the senior enlisted, I’ve got kids in high school or I’ve got aging parents. Not that anybody has to deal with that. Talk about the human condition.

Why wouldn’t we be more intentional and take into account what’s happening to the maximum extent possible. Acknowledging that we really do have to focus, the reason we exist is our very important mission, but it should be in balance. And when we have those conversations they should make sense and not simply the very poor parenting technique of because I said so. Good luck with that if you’re a parent and that’s your go to by the way. That was it. What are we trying to do and why? There’s this old mantra from the rest of the services that homesteading, that is staying in one place for too long, is bad and we’ve thrown out that out the window. It is not bad in and of itself. It’s bad if it hurts the mission and it’s bad if it’s stagnating or hurting Guardians but otherwise we just need to look with a fresh new eyes at what we’re doing and why.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Jason. That is huge. I come speaking from a family with three children. All three of them had three high schools. But I also want to share another story, a personal story from our family. 28 years ago we chose adoption as a way to grow our family. And when you choose to adopt you have to start the process and complete it in the same state. And so we waited to move because then we thought we could start it right away. And then I was under such worry and stress, it’s a life stressor. Are we going to complete this in time before we get orders because this is so important to me. And 28 years ago as a spouse I could have worried less if I had the Guardian Ideal. Thank you so much for this forward thinking opportunity to have a little more stability, flexibility, and choice. It’s huge to military families. Thank you very much. Paula, could you tell us a little bit about the brand new integrated resilience and response operation center at Vandenberg Space Force Base?

Paula D. Krause:

Sorry. Thank you. My mic’s not working. For those you that were here yesterday and heard Secretary of the Air Forces remarks, the IRC, so sexual assault and sexual harassment, we had 82 recommendations across DOD that we are working to implement. One of those recommendations is that we need to centralize our services and this is something that our under secretary of the Air Force is very passionate about and actually mentioned at the national discussion last fall. Within the department of Air Force, we have seven locations that we are piloting integrated response. Vandenberg was selected for our space force installations for many reasons. One is a very isolated site. If anybody’s ever been out there, it doesn’t have a city right outside of the gates, like a lot of our installations do. And so it’s a little more isolated. And so we felt like services at Vandenberg need to be centrally located where it is easy for spouses, for families, and for our service members to find what they need.

I don’t know how many have ever gone translation. You’re trying to find something and you’re like okay it’s building 3-0, what? Where is that building? And so we’re trying to just integrate that where it’s an easy one stop shop where if I walk in as a survivor or a victim of something, I don’t have to tell my story over and over again. I can tell my story one time, the services are either in that location or we bring the services to you at that location. It’s a great program that we started end of July. It was when Vandenberg’s program started. They actually have taken a step further. The bare minimum was get your SAPR, which is your sexual assault and response services, and your DAVA, which is your domestic abuse victim advocate, co-locate them. Vandenberg took it above and beyond because that’s what we do. They are co-locating. They have a satellite office for the chaplain. They have a satellite office for the victims’ council, which is the special victims attorney for victims of sexual assault and domestic violence.

They are putting their prevention services there as well. We are growing our prevention team and we’re putting those in that same location. And so really it’s going to be a response and resilience center. They’re running it similar to what our Airmen, well used to be Airmen family readiness, now our military family readiness centers are where you walk in, somebody greets you, and we get you to the right office. They’re going to have center hours. And so it’s not, oh sorry that person’s out. That door’s going to be opened during the hours. We’re going to get those people the help that they need in a timely manner. And we’re not going to send them all over the insulation to, oh sorry, that’s the wrong service. You need to go five doors down, take a left, and then a right. And really it’s going to be client focused, survivor focused. And we’re hoping that this helps people not only heal quicker but also have those warm fuzzies that, okay, I came to the right place, the help I need is here. I’m going to get what I need and the services are here for me.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Paula. I think it’s a great idea. As a spouse sometimes you don’t always know which helping agency that is the right one for your issue. If you can walk in these doors and the key is to, you don’t have to have an appointment. You can walk in reducing barriers to access. Walk in and you will be guided to where you need to go. And I think that is going to be such a wonderful opportunity for our spouses to feel that they are welcome and that their privacy is intact. There’s different waiting rooms that they can wait in. But I just think this is a fabulous idea and I’m really excited to hear in the months ahead how much impact it makes. At this time we are ready for some questions from our audience. If you have a question, we’d love to hear it. Raise your hand and we have several microphones that will be brought to you. Do we have any questions yet? Oh, we do.

Dr. Ann Bennett:

Dr. Ann Bennett, I’m a space engineer and currently working on the contractor side of things, but I’m also an active duty air force spouse. My question is are there opportunities to modernize the command climate and promote culture to support service members with fully employed spouses so that they can take a more active role. And of course this has to be as mission needs permit, but to take a more active role in their family so the spouses can actually take advantage of the opportunities that we’re setting up for them. Setting up opportunities is great, but in order for spouses to actually have the time, the bandwidth to take advantage of those opportunities, you do need a little bit, not a huge amount, but at least a little bit more parenting of quality at home. And I feel like the military culture is a little bit archaic and doesn’t really support service members in providing that to their families. Are we doing anything to help modernize military culture in that regard?

Mollie Raymond:

Good question. Spouses are multitaskers, aren’t they? And one of the reasons why I think project management was the most ideal course is that spouses, that’s our life. We’re always managing everything. But I think Chris, maybe that’s a good question for you. Tag you’re it.

Christina Parrett:

Well, if I heard the question correctly, I think we’re looking at the culture to afford not just the spouses, but the service members as well to be able to idealize what that family life balances with the work life and mission support balance. And I think that is a fabulous opportunity to then take the culture one step further because it’s not just leaving it. That’s always been on the spouse or the family members to make sure that the household’s running. And I do see that culture starting to change where we do as we grow in a society that understands and accepts the dual income roles. And it’s been a shift. It’s been a growth even in our household when we’ve had to have that conversation of what a career is and what that means. And so yes, we see the work starting. It’s just at the very beginning of how we enable that culture to support the dual income, the dual family, the dual career side of the house while supporting the mission. We’ve got a lot more work to come and I appreciate you highlighting that for us as an importance.

Jason Lamb:

If I may, I’ll just add onto that. We are actively working to instill something that’s called psychological safety. For those of you who aren’t aware, it’s not a cry room where you fill out your hurt feelings report. It’s creating that environment where people can speak up. Because quite often what happens is there’s this, if I express that I need something or that maybe I need to go home or I need to create some bandwidth, I’m being selfish and I’m not being a team player. There are a lot of team leaders and supervisors out there who also have families who also know how complicated and challenging it is to balance, but they’re never told that somebody wants something that they need something and so they sit quietly and goodness does not happen.

We are actively working not just to give a PowerPoint slide presentation on psychological safety and the importance of teams and speaking up, but actually reinforcing the environment, doing more to assess what’s actually happening in that environment. These are all things that we’re building. They don’t exist yet, but general Raymond’s intent is very clear on this and we’re building towards it to create that environment where people can speak up because that’s what real resiliency looks like when you’re connected and you can actually voice those concerns and count on your teammates to support you instead of shame you because you actually need something at home. Because we all need it. We just need to have that environment where we can express it and feel like we can do so without penalty. Because we’ve all been there. Hey I want to go to my kids’ game. Hey I got you covered. No problem.

By the way, my kid has a game next week so I’m counting on you. Yeah, we got it. We got it. We just need to express it and we’re building towards that and it’s going to be a part, spoil alert, of our performance appraisal system. How are you doing as a leader? How are you doing as a teammate? If you’re not there supporting each other. That matters to us. It’s not just the what, it’s the how. The how matters to us as a space force. And I’m super excited about that because I think it’ll be a game changer for Guardians and their families.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you, Jason. Both Jason and Chris, thank you. Do we have another question? Couple, yes. Microphone’s coming. We have one from Heba. One from Cassie. Oh, over this way. Sorry. Sorry. I should do my job appointing.

Heba:

Okay. Hopefully I’ll go super fast. Mrs. Raymond, thanks so much for moderating this panel and panels. Thank you for participating. My name’s Heba Abdelaal. I was on a panel yesterday. I just have a quick question about on the military spouse employment front. How are you identifying those skills that a spouse can bring on the front end to the left of that PCS and then ensuring or trying to place them or at least see if there are opportunities for them through that transition if it’s not something employment wise that they can take with them? I’m just really curious the mechanism that y’all are using to facilitate that particular placement or at least identification of what potential career skills they might bring to a job opportunity at the next location. Thank you.

Christina Parrett:

Thanks for the question. And I love getting questions from the crowd because now we know what’s on everybody’s mind. And so one of the things that we’re looking at, so we’ve got to do a couple things here. We talked about proactive recruitment and so a lot of times spouses are registered out in USA Jobs, have gone over and over and over again applying for job, but there’s the ability for us to be data mining those resumes. And so we’ve started going out to spouses looking for the opportunities that are out there or the skill sets that they bring to the table for the one to one job opportunities. We know that we have a vacancy. We know we have a need to fill.

We’ve started looking and placing that way. A little bit reverse traditional. Now how do you position yourself as a spouse and bringing those skill sets to the table? And that’s what we’re starting to work on with Hiring our Heroes, with the Google certificate program to be able to say, Hey, if this is what you want to do, if you want to be marketable, these are the opportunities to be able to do it. You’ll see more of that coming in this next fiscal year is where one of our big focuses are going to be.

Mollie Raymond:

I appreciate how Hiring our Heroes works with everyone in the program after we complete our certifications with their fellowship program and their amplified program to further professional development and education and identify opportunity. Lots ahead of us, lots of great things happening. Thanks, Heba. Any other? Cassie?

Cassie Cable:

Hi, I’m Cassie Cable. I’m a spouse. One of my questions I want to make sure that formulating correctly is that you guys were talking about some culture and especially with it being a new branch, we’ve got the culture from many different services all coming in. How are we going to try to combat some of the cynicism? Because it’s awesome and I’m one of those, I’m out there, I’m a go getter spouse, and I love champion for encouraging spouses to be involved and encouraging that family unit and getting the services because sometimes it’s just the fact that we all know that service members don’t always take the information home. And so trying to encourage the spouses to go out there and find. There’s all these amazing resources and trying to encourage those spouses, the military does care about you and the military does care about your family, but how are we going to combat some of that culture and some of that narrative of, okay, they just say that. Where are we actually going to put the work into it?

Like I said, I know it’s all there. It’s just that combating some of that cynicism and some of the old thinking that’s still there. I was part of the AFWERX think take several years ago, and we talked about using things like the Air Force Connect app, some of those different things of trying to integrate some more things to reach some of the spouses who are at home sitting there thinking the military doesn’t care about me, but in it’s there, it’s just breaking some of that barrier. How are we going to combat some of the culture and the narrative of no, we really do and we’re not just saying it, if that makes sense.

Jason Lamb:

That 100% makes sense. And most of it is people enter into a life of service, most especially spouses. Y’all volunteer just as much as we volunteer to be a part of this craziness in the service of the nation. But what we don’t want is to feel lied to or taken advantage of. And so we are very mindful of the trust that is being placed in us as a new service. And we are working very hard not to overpromise under deliver. What I would offer is it takes time to build that trust, especially if we DOD have transgressed or violated that trust in some way. We would appreciate, but we don’t ask for anything to be taken on faith. And we are very mindful that as we are building things in culture like the Guardian commitment and our values, I can’t even tell you how many conversations we have about, hey, we’re looking at this policy, how does it align to our values?

Which is a conversation that I frankly didn’t have a lot and I served with all the services. I’m very, very joint. It was always mission, mission, mission, mission, mission. And if you have time, let’s sprinkle a little values on it. Everything that we’re doing is really aligned to the commitment and the values because we do not want to break the faith. We want to say that if there is going to be a thing, there is a mechanism to provide transparency and accountability. Because we really fundamentally believe that we owe the reason why. And if we can’t do something, why we can’t do something, which is something that was quite frankly missing for a lot of my career and those that I talked to was you’d submit something, you’d go into a black hole, and then it came back no, and it was just suck it up.

Inherently ungratifying, unsatisfying. We’re very conscious about closing the loop and building those loops. You’ll hear this a lot, but we really mean it. We need your feedback on the, Hey, we asked this question and we never got a response or we got a response, but there was never an explanation why. Most of you are very, very tolerant if you know why. And we need to make sure it’s a dialogue and not a one way thing. If you bring up specific programs or those things, we can tell you how we are building the loop to close the loop with you and making sure that it is fair, consistent, transparent, and just for all the Guardians across the board. I know I’m doing a lot of hand waving, but reach out to us and we can close the loop on whatever issue you are working. Thanks.

Christine Heit:

I would add from a holistic health assessment standpoint, some of what we’re trying to do and what we’re trying to build is attaching action to what we’re promising, understanding that unless the family’s ready, the service member isn’t ready. We will have embedded teams, they’re called Guardian resilience teams, and one of the members of those teams is charged with developing relationships in the gates and in the local community with a focus on prevention. Not a focus on, oh, somebody has something wrong, let’s fix it. It’s what can we build with our families? What skills can we build to promote overall health? I’ve partnered with Mrs. Raymond. We did self-care sessions with spouses back in May.

Very mindful that there are working spouses, so we did multiple days across multiple time zones. We’re working to do different skills. We’re going to have a self-care skill learning session with children. And then we’re also going to, as we build these relationships with the community, recognizing most of our service members live in the community, our spouses, our children, our families are going to have more access to positive activities focused on prevention, focused on protective factors across the Space Force total force.

Mollie Raymond:

Thank you. I guess we are out of time, but I so appreciate our panelists and thank you for the responses, speaking from the heart. I can’t thank our panelist members enough. And just finally, as Jay and I head into retirement, a lot of people ask me, Are you happy? Are you sad? And I think my daughter had the best word and she said, “Mom, I bet you’re reflective.” And I am. I’m reflective over the past 35 years as a military spouse, almost 39 years for Jay. We’ve had so much joy and opportunity, but it hasn’t been without challenge. I often didn’t always know where to go for resiliency or wellbeing. Spouse employment was a challenge for me, stability a challenge. But I am so excited for the future, for your futures. As a new service, how we can think out of the box and take advantage of our size and put our best asset, people first for a better life. Semper supra thanks for being here.

Watch, Read: ‘Manned-Unmanned Teaming: Myth and Reality’

Watch, Read: ‘Manned-Unmanned Teaming: Myth and Reality’

Heather Penney of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies moderated a discussion on “Manned-Unmanned Teaming: Myth and Reality” with Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration, and requirements, Mike Benitez of Shield AI, Robert Winkler of Kratos, and Patrick Shortsleeve of General Atomics, Sept. 19, 2022, at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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Lt. Gen. David Deptula (Ret.):

Well that’s good. That’s good. The audience is kind of silenced and we’ll wait for the last few stragglers to come in, and I’ll go ahead and introduce myself. I’m Dave Deptula, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and we start this next panel with a very special presentation.

So first let me ask the representatives of the 178th Attack squadron to please come to the stage and surround this magnificent trophy here. Now the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Study is very pleased to announce that the recipient of the General Atomics Remotely Piloted Aircraft trophy of the year for 2021 is the Happy Hooligans of the 178th Attack Squadron. And you can clap again. The Hooligans are based at Fargo National Guard Base North Dakota. And to join me in presenting the award, I’d like to introduce Lt. Gen. Russ Mack, the Vice Commander of Air Combat Command, Maj. Gen. Vinny Mac McDonald, Commander Air National Guard Readiness Center, and Mr. Dave Alexander, President of General Atomics Aeronautic Systems. So Gen. Mack over to you.

Gen. Russ Mack:

Thank you Gen. Deptula. And sir, thank you for your leadership at the Mitchell Institute. This award is presented annually for outstanding performance by RPA squadrons in achieving intelligence, surveillance, and persistent attack and reconnaissance over the preceding calendar year. While I can tell you firsthand what it takes to organize, train, and equip this incredible enterprise, I know that our RPA community is in high demand, and our combatant commanders just can’t get enough of what they provide. So I wanted to say thank you to the Happy Hooligans of the 178th. They have exhibited exemplary performance this past year, and I’d like to offer a hardy well done by the Air Combat Command Commander Gen. Mark Kelly. Thank you.

Maj. Gen. Vinny Mack MacDonald:

In 2021, the 178th Attack Squadron continually stayed on the leading edge of MQ-9 war fighting excellence in innovation. The Happy Hooligans many accomplishments while protecting the American people, our homeland, and the American way of life distinctly identify them as US Air Force most outstanding RPA Squadron. Importantly the 178th is the first National Guard unit to be presented with this prestigious title, and I’m honored to be part of awarding them this trophy today. Air National Guard RPA units contribute to the total force the combat power needed to safeguard our nation’s interests worldwide. And in 2020, the 178th sent the benchmark for this performance. Thank you.

Dave Alexander:

So General Atomics proudly sponsors the Squadron of the Year Award. We honor all the RPA Airmen. But during 2021, Air Force selected the Happy Hooligans as the top rank unit. The Hooligans completed their 14th straight year of 24/7, 365 combat operations. So I’ll say that again. 14th straight year 24/7, 365, every second, every day supporting two combatant commands, an incredible achievement. So congratulations to the 178th, thank you for your service, you’ve made a difference, and most of all, thank you for our freedom.

Lt. Gen. David Deptula (Ret.):

Well thanks Gen. Mack and MacDonald and Dave Alexander and all of General Atomics. Once again, the Mitchell Institute’s proud to present the General Atomics RPA trophy for 2021 to the 178th Attack Squadron, Fargo National Guard Base, North Dakota.

Okay ladies and gentlemen, please join me in one final big round of applause for the Happy Hooligans of the 178th Attack Squadron.

Heather Penney:

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our panel on autonomous teaming. I hope you’ve had an engaging day and learned a lot. And thank you for being here as we close out day one of the Aerospace and Cyber Conference. I’m excited to announce our latest Mitchell paper, I’m even more excited to announce our panelists. But first let me put a little plug in for a report, Five Imperatives for Autonomous Teaming. We know that the capabilities and capacity of the US Air Force’s current force design falls far short of the requirements to deter and prevail against Chinese aggression, which is DOD’S pacing threat. The service must develop innovative operating concepts and grow its force size, resiliency, and ability to present complex challenges to Chinese forces that conduct large scale systems versus systems of warfare in the Endo Pacific. A family of unmanned collaborative combat aircraft have the potential to achieve these force design objectives.

Developing this family of CCA will require the Air Force to increase its understanding of human machine teaming dynamics that are critical to conducting effective CCA counter air missions, precision strikes, and other operations in contested battle spaces. The Air Force is now at risk though of making potentially irreversible force structure decisions, based on a limited understanding of how CCA can or should team with manned aircraft. We’re looking to divest nearly 500 aircraft in the next five years. CCA can be a key component of achieving the force design that we need, but we need to make sure that we develop them properly.

CCA effectiveness and combat primarily correlates with how well they team with humans, not simply the capabilities they carry like weapons and sensors. Understanding these human machine teaming dynamics will be foundational to the development of CCA algorithms and the software brains, “brains” that drive these CCA behaviors. These software programs cannot be bolted on after we produce and field these aircraft.

So in the report we offer some areas that the Air Force can focus on to ensure that we get this right. Our panelists today will be able to contribute some great insight for military and industry for this critical issue of collaborative combat aircraft. So here to discuss with me our Gen. Clinton Hinote of the Air Force Futures, then we also have Mike Shortsleeve from General Atomics, then Robert Otis Winkler from Kratos, say hi Otis, and finally Mike Paco Benitez from Shield AI. Now Gen. Hinote… Now Gen. Hinote is the Deputy Chief of Staff, strategy, integration, and requirements on the air staff, the Air Force A5. We all know he is the thought leader for the Air Force. In his duties General… All right, let’s give him round applause for that, thought leadership. Woo.

In these duties, Gen. Hinote focuses on developing future strategies and assessments of the operational environment. To that end, the A5 host war games and workshops to focus the development of future force design. And we at the Mitchell Institute are very fortunate to have Gen. Hinote give introductory remarks for our recent CCA workshop. Then we have Mr. Mike Shortsleeve. He’s the Vice President for Strategy and Business Development at General Atomics. He’s been with General Atomics for almost three years, having come from a rich experience that includes Big Safari, chairing the Air Force’s C2 and Global ISR Panel, and as an A2 and other impactful assignments as an Air Force intelligence officer. Otis Winkler is a vice president for national security programs and corporate development for Kratos. His experience in a wide range of national security roles from Air Force fighter leadership and congressional liaison, to DARPA, to the Senate Armed Services Committee staff, to industry, and he has a master’s from War College. At Kratos, he focuses on aligning their strategy with DOD, executive, and legislative strategy.

And Mike Paco Benitez next to me is the product manager for autonomy for Shield AI, focusing his work on a concept he calls AI for maneuver, using AI to increase combat mass and enhance mission outcomes. He’s also the founder of the Merge Defense Technology Newsletter. If you haven’t subscribed, here’s a plug, do it now, it’s great. And he’s a contributing editor to War on the Rocks. His 25 year active duty career included both time in the Air Force and the Marine Corps, where he flew combat missions in both Strike Eagles and Super Hornets.

So with those introductions, we’re just going to dive straight into today’s discussion. Big news just a little over a week ago is that the CCA competition may kick off in 2024, which is really exciting for all of us to hear, even though we won’t hear that much about this highly classified program. But the nearness of this means that it’s time to separate myth from reality. So today we’ll explore among our panelists where the technology is right now, and where it might be in the future and where it needs to be.

So to kick this off, Gen. Hinote, I’d like to direct the beginning of the conversation to you, because this is something I think you’ll have very useful things to say for our audience. Secretary Kendall has stated his very ambitious timeline for fielding combat collaborative aircraft. But those of us who’ve been around the building for a while, this kind of sounds a little bit like a myth. 2027 is already within the [inaudible 00:11:18], right? And the Air Force typically can’t even complete the capabilities gap assessment analysis of all alternatives and finalized requirements within five years. So are we going to have to wait for perfect, or can we buy and fly CCA in timelines that will deliver meaningful capability on an iterative basis?

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

Okay, so thanks Heather for setting me up with that great question.

Heather Penney:

I know. Well, we’re not going to give you the easy ones.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

First of all. Thank you AFA and Mitchell for sponsoring [inaudible 00:11:53] on the paper and I’m really excited about my fellow panelist and learning from them. So let’s start with this. If we do it the same way, if we try to get the requirements perfect, try to [inaudible 00:12:11] we will fail [inaudible 00:12:18]. That’s not where they’re coming from [inaudible 00:12:30].

Heather Penney:

There you go.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

Okay. Is that better? Thank you. All right. That was part of the technical training that we did not get to before we walked in. Well first I said thank you to AFA, to Mitchell, and to my fellow panelists. And I said that if we were to do things the same way as we always have, we will not accelerate change, we will not get to solving the imperatives. And so we’re committed to thinking about requirements, thinking about acquisition, thinking about capability development in a different way. Now what’s this going to require? It’s going to require us to have war fighters and acquisition experts and testers and evaluators all together working together for the same goal. I also think it’s going to require working together with our allies to be able to share the load and move forward faster. And I think there’s one part of it that we need to discuss amongst ourselves as Airmen.

Because when we go fast, I’m not going to take credit for this, but I will say, I won’t tell you who said it, he might take credit for it later, but it is important for us to realize that the first one sucks. Right? I mean so let’s go back. I flew the first 89s, some of us did, I wasn’t quite there, but they weren’t all that great, and the first versions of certain weapons systems, they weren’t all that great. It’s important for us to realize the first few that we’ll get will learn, will grow, will make it better.

They’re called min viable products for a reason. We have to think about flying aircraft in the way that we think about developing software as a min viable product. And if we make improvements between today and tomorrow, we’re winning, but we’re not going to get it perfect the first time. In fact, we’re not going to even know very much the first time we fly these things. And we’ve had some great partnerships with some of our great companies about flying, and figuring out what these are all about. But it will be important for us to realize that we will iterate and make improvements over time. The alternative is we wait for perfect, and you won’t get it anytime soon. And that’s not an alternative that I am willing to accept, and it’s certainly not an alternative that we’re hearing Secretary Kendall and Chief Brown talk about.

Patrick Shortsleeve:

Yeah, I just add a couple points to this. I would say that day one of strategic competition isn’t going to be 2027, 2030, 2035, whatever date seems to be floating out there, I would offer that occurred decades ago with the Chinese and the Russians. And in my mindset, it’s not so much about maintaining an advantage, it’s about regaining the advantage. So we have no choice but to move fast on this. I mean it’s simple as that. The chief staff of the Air Force I think said it best when you have to accelerate or you’re going to lose. And so that’s where we’re at today. So from a technical standpoint, certainly companies like Kratos and General Atomics, we can go out and we can build the best unmanned aircraft that are out there. But I would offer that you’ve got to hone those skills well ahead of time before that platform arrives two, three, four years down the road.

Today you just saw you’ve got some Airmen up here who 14 years, 24/7, 365 days. That’s a lot of experience. And I would offer that you could go even faster by leveraging perhaps some of the unmanned capabilities you already have in your inventory as sort of your first mover tech demonstrator for some of this development work. You don’t have to wait for a platform to arrive two, three years down the road, you need to hone those skills today, because in order to meet those timelines that have already passed, you’ve got to use what you have at your disposal right now. Continue with the development process on the other side, but I would tap into what you already have from experience as well as platforms.

Heather Penney:

I saw you leaning forward there. Is there anything you wanted to add about minimum viable products in building them today?

Robert Winkler:

No, I think that honestly is key to where we’re going. If you wait for perfect, as he has already said, right, we’re we’re going to wait for 10, 15 years. We’ll get to something that’s relatively close to perfect, but it won’t be time relevant to either contain China, or be a factor to any fight that might be coming up in the next three to five years. And I think that that mindset has to grip us. I mean it’s been adopted by most of the commercial industry to do a minimal viable product and then build off of that. We have that ingrained in ourselves in the military and specifically in the Air Force. We’ve spent a lot of time doing block upgrades over every single major weapon system. But we need to have the, in my opinion, the attitude that we’re behind and that we need to catch up as Mike said already, that to get after it instead of waiting 10 to 15 years for the next perfect.

Heather Penney:

So Otis, I’m going to follow up on that because one of the concerns that we all have is in order to be able to field these aircraft, they have to be affordable. Affordability is actually one of the objectives to be able to create the mass and the numbers that we need. So how do we begin looking at breaking that cost paradigm? I mean we’ve heard Secretary Kendall throughout a rough estimate that the teammate for the B-21 would be about half of the bomber’s cost, but that would be about hundreds of millions of dollars. And that’s not really attainable if we want to be able to do this in mass. So it’s not a cost equation that works for us. So how do you see making CCA more affordable?

Robert Winkler:

No, I think it’s a great question, and as you said it’s key to the overall program. I mean, I didn’t realize this until I started working with industry and in Congress, but we buy aircraft by the pound, which is, it sounds nuts, but if you go back and look at the analysis, it’s about $2,500 per pound to buy a military aircraft. And it goes back through modern history is it stays relatively constant. AFRL has done a fantastic job and doing some really innovative development, and they’ve brought that down by a quarter. So now we’re talking about 600 pounds for $600 per pound, which is fantastic and honestly revolutionary. But I don’t think that even gets us to where we need to go. If you’re taking let’s say an F-35, which is by far probably the most capable and cost effective airplane that we have out there at $80 million a copy and you do one quarter of that, you’re still going to be in the $20 million range to produce the thing that’s relatively similar to the capability of an F-35, but unmanned.

That is cost effective and that would be wonderful, but I think the real key to getting affordable mass is going to be the disaggregation. So figuring out what subsets of mission systems that you can put on each individual aircraft unmanned teammate, that the whole of the formation is more cost effective and more combat effective than the individuals. And so by doing that, the only way to do that is to fly those mission systems. We’re not going to have enough information and data. We can think about it a lot and there’s a lot of great thinkers in this room, on the air staff, and in OSD and the like that can think about it. But until you’re actually going to go out there and fly these mission sets with real people in combat situations, whether in training or out in the fleet and the field, we’re never going to really know what the maximum effectiveness is by combining those different disaggregated mission systems.

Heather Penney:

And for those that aren’t familiar, the dollars per pound rule of thumb for aircraft is that’s a stand in for the raw materials, for the complexity of the systems, the engines because the heavier the aircraft, the more powerful the engine has to be, and all of the weapon systems that are on board. And what we’ve seen recently is that as we’ve had more capable aircraft, we’ve aggregated. So we’ve brought on board far more complex and advanced systems, which has also then increased the cost of aircraft. So that’s why I think Otis is recommending that we disaggregate these onto unmanned aircraft. So by separating out and having more single function or simple function type aircraft, we can create greater affordability.

We actually wrote about that in our Mosaic Warfare Report, so I think that’s a really important piece. But I’d like to get to the current state of technology and Mike, I’m going to toss this over you and then Paco, I’d really like to hear what you guys are doing at Shield AI, because that’s really interesting. Mike, General Atomics has been a true disruptor in the field of unmanned aircraft. After all you guys were visionary in how you developed the MQ-1 and MQ-9, and these platforms still do a lot of important mission sets, and they have got the potential to continue that in the Pacific like base defense. But let’s talk about the future because you’re still looking to disrupt. So how is GA thinking about collaborative combat aircraft, and can you give us a current state of play for these unmanned systems?

Patrick Shortsleeve:

Yeah, it’d be great to offer you sort of what we are doing, not only today, but what we’re looking at for tomorrow. Most people associate General Atomics with the MQ-9 and rightfully so, it’s a phenomenal platform that I think has not been fully utilized. But I will say that for us it begins with really a far reaching vision. And this is an interconnected framework. So you got this far reaching vision, you do an intelligent design, agile capability development, and then rapid fielding, right? You have to get the capability out there as quickly as possible. So all of our future designs and concepts fall under this umbrella of being sort of collaborative combat aircraft in one form factor or another. One of those particular ones that I would like to just address today is an aircraft we call Gambit.

Gambit actually is a family of aircraft. And we looked at the ability to strike a balance in what I would say is an advanced aircraft that’s durable to do whatever job it needs to do, but not so exquisite and so costly that you wouldn’t want to be aggressive with it. Meaning if the platform, while it’s intended to come home, if it doesn’t, that’s okay. Because obviously the cost issue is a big factor when you talk about these platforms, and what’s going to be needed in mass. So the approach that we’re taking is slightly different. It’s been done before, not maybe necessarily in the airline or air aircraft manufacturing I would say, but imagine if you will, that you’re at an automobile production facility and you see the wheels and the chassis coming down the line, it turns off to the left and becomes a luxury model. The one behind it turns off to the right, becomes a family economy model.

So that same kind of concept is what we’re looking at with Gambit, and that’s why I say family of aircraft. What you’re looking at is a core capability, sort of a core baseline of what we’re roughly estimating about 70% of the cost of the aircraft. This would be common across multiple variants of that aircraft. So the approach here is to have a common baseline that establishes a chassis, landing gear, baseline avionics. And then what you do after that really is left up to the choice of the customer, sort of like the trim line that you would have. What do you want? You want a sport model? Do you want a four by four? So in this case for Gambit, it could be that you want an ISR platform, you want a weapons platform, you want an EW, you want something that’s going to provide adversary air training.

So all those additional pieces and parts are added afterwards. So 70% of the cost up front with the core capability, which allows you to actually to mass produce these things. And then at 30% cost for the airframe comes into the types of wings that you want, the engines that you want, all of that. And again, that’s separate from what I would say is the autonomy that’s going to fly these things. But that approach that we’re taking now is not so much just focusing on really a platform, it’s more about the capability. So you got to figure out how those mission systems are going to be integrated into this. And so for us, obviously open mission systems, open architecture, I could throw out all these different terms to you, those are the ways that you’re going to get after this. So for us, we’re looking at it from a different perspective. Instead of going out and building four separate type of variance or models out there, let’s use a common core chassis, and then let’s start adding on to what it is that you actually need.

Heather Penney:

That kind of modular approach could be very interesting. But Paco, I really want to come back to you because you’ve been working on the agents, the behaviors, the autonomy, really how the system thinks. And this is actually what makes this capability realistic, right? Because we have to have something that has the ability to think, perform, behave, and act within the battle space that isn’t tied to a human in the cockpit half a globe away. So Paco, can you please speak to us about where you are with the autonomy, how you’re approaching it at Shield AI, and where you’re moving forward?

Mike Benitez:

Sure thing, thanks. So I think the three things I pulled apart here was time, platforms, and cost. Okay, so I’ll just kind of run down the line with some somewhat coherent thought, we’ll see what happens. So time. 2027, is it possible? Yes, it is not a technological problem, it’s a bureaucratic problem, and I think everyone recognizes that the path to get there is a min viable product. We are passed to proof of concept, we’ve demonstrated autonomy in a simulated environment. We’ve demonstrated how to build modular systems and subsystems the components, and now it’s about put it together, get it in the air, and get the sets and reps to fly, fix, and fly. And so to that, I would say that that min viable product is not CCAs, it’s CCA Block 1. Define it, do something, snap the chalk line, and we can get the work. Industry is waiting.

For the platform, great discussion from Mike. What I would say is at Shield AI, I don’t care about the platform, I care about the platform model, I don’t care about the sensors, I care about the sensor model. And I don’t care about the weapons, I care about the weapons model, because we need the models to then ingest to build the behaviors, which start to look like what a human would do with tactics. And so that’s the thing that’s the most important as we look at the integration of that. And those models, we have to get over vendor locked when we have this kind of system. We have to be forthcoming with those models, so we can train a behavior for it. If the Air Force wants a behavior to do X, Y, and Z, but the models aren’t available to do that, well you’re not going to get capability X, Y, Z.

And to Otis’ this point about cost, just realized just like when Block 4 F-35 starts feeling the cost is going to go up because it has more capable systems. I don’t think the government is ready quite yet to have a conversation about costing autonomy, but we are, and we’ll be happy. In the next six months we’ll have a lot to talk about as far as cost models, business models, and way we can go forward.

But I will say that software is not cheap, it’s more expensive than you think it is, and I will tell you that even the software today is more expensive than you think it is. To Otis’ point about $2,500 a pound, an operational flight program, one software drop to get it from development, test, and field it to the war fighter for a fourth generation fighter averages $250 million in the Air Force today. So let that sink in, that is not cheap, and we are going to have to adopt new processes and agile means to fly, fix, and fly this autonomy, because that autonomy is never quite fielded. Because once it fields, it is evolving with the operator in the environment. So if the red threat changes, the blue capabilities change, we have to put that back and relearn those tactics and behaviors so we can establish that trust and effective tactical autonomy.

Heather Penney:

Thank you. The fly-fix-fly, would you please unpack that a little bit for the audience because I think that fly-fix-fly is a really important concept for how we think about fielding minimum viable products, and then beginning to iterate them to achieve something that is really combat effective in the battle space?

Mike Benitez:

Sure. So I’ll tell it in three steps. So step one of we call fly-fix-fly happens at the engineer level internal, and that’s in a simulated environment. So not like a fighter sim but an actual engineering sim. So AFSIM, those type of environments. So what we do is we’ll go and we’ll build a behavior, we have objectives, we have a risk, we have commander’s intent, and then we actually break it down by mission tactics, task behaviors, and primitives. And that’s kind of the structure we use. And in that we field these systems internally and then we actually put them through a red team analysis, and we would call team play. So they actually fight each other, play with each other and they’re learning about what to do and what not to do. And we use reinforcement learning for most of it, but that’s how we iterate on a very, very fast scale.

And that is one level of the fly-fix-fly. The second level is when we get the models provided from the systems integration lab so SIL, some of you might have heard of that. So now we’re going to take that out of the simulative models, and we’re going to actually plug it into the actual hardware on a bench in a lab and run the same things. And then the next step of that is taking an airborne. So we have engineers down on the squadrons for this experimentation for min viable products, CCA Block 1, we go fly, I like this, I don’t like that, and we fix it. And how do we fix it is debrief. The most important part of everything we do is not the planning, it’s not the execution, it’s the debrief, and having a way to have explainability of what the autonomy is doing and what it’s not doing, and what we want it to do and not to do is the feedback loop that we need to rapidly iterate to fly-fix-fly and establish trust in the autonomy.

Heather Penney:

Thank you. Gen. Hinote, I’d like to come back to you because again, you are the thought leader for the Air Force. We’re a firm believer that to build effective human CCA teams, we must deliberately compose them to exploit the strengths of both the humans and the CCA. So in your mind I’d like to understand what do you think humans are good at, and what are CCA good at, like what’s autonomy good at? And how do we then begin to compose and build those teams, Moneyball style so that we’ve got the right package going forward?

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

Yeah, it’s a great question, and it’s a question that I don’t think we’ve fully understood or answered yet, but let me give you some thoughts that I think will help us all kind of move forward together in this. The first is that humans are… We’re going to be making the decisions on lethal force, the employment of lethal force. That’s an important principle that our government has placed on these systems, and I think it’s the right one. That doesn’t always mean that it’s the next instant. Somebody says “Yes, I am ready to shoot a weapon,” and the weapon comes off and it hits. There have been times when we’ve used autonomy, and there’s some length of time between when the decision is made and when the outcome is achieved. I think that will happen again with CCAs, but the original decision to employ lethal force is going to be a human decision.

And in many ways the invocation of values into the way we fight is likely to be a human endeavor. And so in many ways when we go fight, we bring our values with us. That might include things like ethics, that might also include things like we’re not going to leave our wingman behind and things like that. And so those types of decisions are likely to remain in the human realm. Machines are really good at executing, and they’re really good at seeing an input and creating an output. So the execution of tactics is likely to be something machines are good at. They will know when they’ve trespassed or when they’ve gotten into a minimum abort range, and they will have the ability to execute off of that, in ways that humans can sometimes be challenged in because of all the information coming into the cockpit. Clearly autonomy in flight is going to revolutionize flight.

That will not only be true for combat, it’s likely to be true for a lot of different areas across our economy and across our country. And I’m really excited about the democratization of flight that happens with autonomous flight. Lots of capabilities out there. We’re seeing it with things like the delivery of logistics and the sensing of crops and such, and we’re going to see a lot more of that. But clearly we do not need to have humans do the flying of these aircraft. There was a concept at one time where somebody thought it was a good idea to have a pilot in a single person cockpit with one hand flying his or own aircraft and the other flying the autonomous vehicle, and that’s not going to work. Any of us who have tried to actually go execute air tactics, no that would be very difficult. We expect that machines are going to be pretty good at execution.

Where I do think there is going to be kind of a gray area is in between that, in between execution and the use of judgment. And we’re going to have a lot of experimentation to do in that area, and I expect that people in this room are going to be leading us in that experimentation. And when we talk about having war fighters in the development of these systems, I think that’s where that happens. And I know that we have started that process. We have brought in war fighters to help in certain areas to help us understand what the human machine teaming might look like, but that’s only begun, there’s a lot more to go. And that’s where it’ll be fascinating to see what we all learn together.

Heather Penney:

So as we’ve been thinking about it at Mitchell, what it comes down to for us, and this is just one small component in addition to the form, fit, and function, right? So we’ve talked about disaggregating autonomous systems so that they can have different capabilities to feed that together, and how that might potentially change those formations. But what are the cognitive benefits, what are the cognitive differences between humans and autonomous agents? So what are humans good at? Thinking through uncertainty, improvisation, applying a cross domain learning, single shot learning. These are all things that humans are good at, and those judgment calls when there’s no clear right answer.

Whereas autonomy seems to be really good at things like mass data processing, pattern recognition, and other things. So how do we begin to understand and create greater fidelity around those particular strengths so we can then field formations in ways that create conundrums, and cause uncertainty for the adversary and confound their ability to target. So with those thoughts from Gen. Hinote and how we’ve been thinking about this, I’d like to pass this back to both Mike and Paco. And Paco, we can start with you for a moment. What implications do you think, or Mike happy to go to you as well, whoever wants to jump in first. How do you think this is going to impact how you build the autonomy?

Mike Benitez:

Great question. Well, that’s a lot to unpack in just a couple minutes remaining. So what I’ll say is that war is a human endeavor, there is always going to be a fog and friction of war. When you look at the concepts of man on man teaming and CCAs, at the end of the day, outside of 10 miles, if you’re flying at F35 that’s outside within visual range, you are relying 100% on your sensing and your ability to sense and make sense of the environment, so your perception. We can do that with autonomy.

Decisions is where it gets the… That’s where rubber meets the road with the conversation, but once the decision is made, that execution is machine speed and optimized to perfection based on the RL. And so what you’re talking about is decisions, not perception, not execution, but making decisions. And that’s where it gets back to the different degrees of autonomy and where we want the operator. Do we want the operator in the loop, on the loop, or off the loop? And I think we already said probably not off the loop, especially not in the CCA Block 1 min viable product, but eventually CCA Block 3, 10 years from now, there’s a lot of things we can do in that decision space, that cognitive, and we’re going to learn so much in the next just 24 months. It’s going to be amazing.

Heather Penney:

Thank you. So while we’ve just got a few moments left, this is going to be the speed round, and so we’ll go from Paco down to Gen. Hinote, because sir, we want to give you the last word. What do you gentlemen believe is sort of the top two or three priorities that the Air Force needs? What actions do we need to take to begin to make these capabilities real in the timeframes that we will need them? Speed round.

Mike Benitez:

Act with a sense of urgency, aligned resources, leadership, and accountability.

Robert Winkler:

Well done. That gives me extra time. I think most important is to get this capability in the hands of the war fighter. Let them go out and execute, gather the data that Paco needs to be able to develop the algorithms to be relevant in a war fight.

Heather Penney:

Buy them and then fly them.

Robert Winkler:

Yeah. Buy them asap to get the data to fly them.

Heather Penney:

Mike.

Patrick Shortsleeve:

I would say prioritization of the mission and roles that you want to start with first.

Heather Penney:

Gen. Hinote, wrap it all up for us.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

Okay. I 100% agree with what’s been set up here. Paco, that was really good. Can I use that later on? This…

Mike Benitez:

It’s yours.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote:

Yeah, we need it. I think the only thing that I would add is that I have had our allies come to me and come to our Air Force, and say how much that they want to be involved in this process of learning and development. And I think that there’s a possibility that it looks different with them than it does just with us and in a good way. I also think that with some of the agreements that have been put into place, AUKUS is an example, it’s not the only one. But there are some incredible opportunities for us, as Airmen across different countries and different nationalities to learn together in ways that increase our ability to actually use this in a deterrent way, and in a way that helps us fight and win in the future.

And what I’d say is, in addition to everything we’ve talked about up here, I can’t wait to be involved with our allies in making this real. Because I think it has the potential to do some really great things, not only in the furtherance of the technology, but also in bringing us together for a common cause in a new world, in a world where we actually do have to stand up against something that feels somewhat evil, and feels quite urgent and we’re not alone.

So I think the thing I’d like to close out with is I’m really excited about the possibility of partnering with these allies, and making this a really interesting journey that we all get to walk.

Heather Penney:

Thank you sir. Well, that’s all the time that we have for today. And gentlemen, thank you again so much for being here on the panel today. Gen. Hinote, thank you for the leadership of everything that you’re doing for our Air Force and for our war fighters. This is how we are finishing out the first day of the conference. We’re excited to see you back tomorrow for our Mitchell panels on long range strike and future force development. And don’t forget to pick up a copy of our new report on CCA teaming imperatives and back. If we run out, swing by our booth and have a great air power kind of day. Thank you.

Watch, Read: ‘The Power of Unmanned Systems’

Watch, Read: ‘The Power of Unmanned Systems’

Retired Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies moderated a discussion on “The Power of Unmanned Systems” with Steve Burd of Pratt & Whitney, retired Col. Mark Stiner of Elbit Systems of America, and Matthew George of Merlin Labs, Sept. 19, 2022, at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. Watch the video or read the transcript below. This transcript is made possible through the sponsorship of JobsOhio.

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Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Well, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our panel. The Power of Unmanned Systems. As you’ve all heard, our next generation of fighters and bombers are envisioned as families of systems that incorporate autonomous collaborative aircraft or ACPs. ACPs will augment the capabilities of our most modern aircraft. While exactly how these aircraft might look is still not clear, these ACPs will need to have a high level of autonomy and a variety of capabilities to make them work in highly contested environments in that range. We also know that Secretary Kendall has placed a premium on buying large numbers of ACPs at lower costs. Today we have three perfect guests who are at the forefront of unmanned technology that will derive the developments of these systems moving into the future. Joining me today are Dr. Steven Burd, Mark Stiner, and Matthew George. Let me tell you a little bit about the gents here.

Dr. Burd is chief engineer for Pratt & Whitney Advanced Military Engine Programs, otherwise known as GatorWorks. Steve has a 24 year tenure at Pratt & Whitney with leadership roles and applied experience across numerous military engine platforms that extend across the product lifestyle from concepts to sustainment in the middle. Mark Stiner is a senior director of strategic business development at Elbit America. Elbit is a high technology company engaged in a wide range of programs, primarily in defense and homeland security areas. Stiner spent 22 years in the US Army as the retired colonel, and he also retired out of the job as military deputy for the Army’s Communications Electronics Research Development and Engineering Center.

And finally, Mr. George is the CEO of Merlin Labs and a good friend. Merlin Labs is developing autonomous flight technology that works with existing aircraft. Prior to Merlin Labs, Mr. George founded and led Bridge. Now, Bridge is a platform that supports AI-enabled mass transportation. So thank you, all three of you, for joining us today. And I’d like to get started by allowing you to make some introductory remarks from each of you and how your companies fit in to the overall picture for UAS. So we’ll start with Dr. Burd.

Steve Burd:

All right, well, thank you, sir. Yeah. Let me start by saying unmanned systems are playing an important role in terms of how we operate in the sky today. And as alluded to by the introduction, that role and the importance of unmanned systems is just going to continue to grow and carry more relevance. At Pratt & Whitney, we’re proud to be the power and propulsion provider for unmanned systems today. And with that horizon in front of us, we are positioning ourselves to meet some of the challenges that we see facing as we start to deploy more of these systems out there.

At Pratt, there’s a couple of things we’re really focused on at the moment. The first is continuing to support those unmanned systems that are flying today. There’s a sustainment element to them, and as they continue to operate, we are seeing the needs for additional capability and we’re working hard to bring forward new technologies and capability to enhance those platforms. We have established a number of years back a group that we affectionately call the PIG, Platform Integration Group, whose sole purpose is to work with the weapons systems contractors, non-traditional and traditional, to find ways that we can leverage our commercial off the shelf products to best suit those applications. Beyond that, on the technology side, we are using agile development to find the capabilities that provide the most enabling aspects of these future designs and building the new solutions that could be leveraged in these air vehicles in the future.

This includes scalable architectures that will allow for the greatest leverage across platforms and economies of scale. And lastly, many of these systems to really achieve the mission objectives that are out there, they need disruptive capabilities, and that’s a big focus in my area, specifically where we are trying to figure out what game changing capabilities in the integrated power propulsion and thermal side are needed and trying to ready those as quickly as we can going through technology maturation and demonstration. So it’s a pleasure to be here today and certainly I think this is a very relevant topic and looking forward to the discussion.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Thanks, Dr. Burd. Mark Stiner.

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

Thank you. As a former army aviator, I really appreciate the opportunity to be here at AFA and to be part of this panel. I thought I’d start by just taking a minute to talk about three trends that we see in the unmanned system space and then touch super briefly on where Elbit America is investing to meet those trends. The first is increased lethality. I think armed drones are not new. Drone strikes are not new, but I think what you’re seeing now is a massive proliferation of weaponized unmanned systems. I think everything from first person viewer drones that you buy off the shelf to larger systems that are actually employing anti-tank weaponry. You’re seeing a massive number of lethal unmanned systems. If you just look back at the evolution of unmanned systems, I think predominantly they were ISR systems, right? I mean, we’ve had drone strikes, but now I think there’s a huge investment happening globally in weaponized UAVs.

The second trend is one to many. So I think if you look at what’s happening today, what you primarily see are remotely piloted systems. We talk about unmanned systems, largely, they’re remotely piloted. You tend to see one operator or pilot controlling one platform, maybe in some cases for the larger, more complex systems, you’ll have two operators controlling a single platform. But with the proliferation of increasingly large numbers of lower cost systems, what you’re going to have is one operator controlling multiple platforms. So that’s going to drive the autonomy that we talk about. Everybody agrees that there’s going to be increased autonomy. I think one of the things that’s going to drive that trend is the fact that you have one operator controlling multiple systems. So they need to be able to react many more things without the operator intervention. And then the third trend is controlled from the cockpit or the fighting platform.

I think, again, when you look around today, predominantly the systems are controlled from often far away. But certainly by dedicated operators in a dedicated command shelter and that traces back to their lineages and ISR systems. So you have a dedicated operation cell that’s operating these things and then communicating with the people who are directly engaged in the battle. And I think that paradigm will shift, I think in conflicts of the future, what you’re going to see because of the immediacy, because the systems are lethal, weaponized, and integrated as part of the actual fighting that’s happening, they’re going to be controlled directly from the cockpit, from the land platform across the board. And so, Elbit is investing to meet these trends. We’re making large investments into the sixth gen cockpit and how future pilots will be able to control the aircraft while operating and interacting with a large number of systems. We’re building new platforms and we’re building a number of electronic warfare and other payloads to support those platforms. Thank you.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Thanks, Mark. Matt George.

Matthew George:

Hey guys. Good afternoon. All right, there we go. We’re still alive after lunch. My name is Matt. I lead up Merlin, unlike some of my colleagues. You guys may not have heard of Merlin. So a little bit about us. We’re a growth-stage aerospace startup, primarily based out of Boston, but we’ve got a big group in Denver, Colorado, Los Angeles, and a flight test facility in Mojave, California. So if you’re ever in the neighborhood, please look us up and we’ll have you out and come see some autonomous aircraft.

And then, we have an incredible group in New Zealand where we’ve partnered with the New Zealand government to deploy the world’s first nation-level autonomous air cargo network. I always joke to folks that I get to live every little kid’s dream, which is being able to go build technology and systems to make giant flying robots. But one of the things I think we should really talk about today, and I think has been a conversation throughout at least sort of the past AFA and this AFA, is being able to take autonomous systems from the future tense and bring them into the present tense.

So instead of saying what we will be doing or what we want to be doing, being able to bring that back to the present tense and saying, what are we doing to make meaningful steps to be able to go get there? At Merlin, we’re now leading the space deploying $150 million to be able to go develop autonomous systems in the future.

First, taking large airplanes and going from two pilots down to one. So we’re developing a system that acts as a co-pilot on a very, very large aircraft. We announced a couple months ago that we were selected to be able to go bring crew reduction to the C130J in partnership with our friends at AFSOC and SOCOM, and then being able to go take that pilot and eventually then power a totally uncrewed flight. So we’re really proud of the work that we’re doing, especially on the civil side where we announce the world’s first certification basis for takeoff to touchdown autonomy, including the only time ever that there’s been a certification basis issued on truly non-deterministic autonomous system as opposed to a rule-based system. So really excited to be here, really excited to be able to go continue the conversation about how to take autonomy from the future tense and bring it back into the present tense.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Very good. Thanks, Matt. Well, let’s dive a little bit further into this topic. And when we think about near peer competition, what comes to mind in today’s world, a lot of problems, but mass is one of them, and we need capacity of all types of aircraft to be able to compete to fight and win against a peer. So I’d ask you all why is, first of all, why is mass important, and then how might ACPs help with the balance of mass in our favor? And I’ll start with you, Matt.

Matthew George:

Yeah, great. As everybody here knows, we in a near peer competitive environment, we’re not just talking about one aircraft type, we’re talking about multiple aircraft types. So as folks like General Pringle and General White have talked about pretty extensively, being able to go say we only have one type aircraft that’s able to fly autonomously, is not enough to be able to go support the war fighter. One of the things that we’re most excited about is taking a pilot and making an autonomous pilot that can be applied wide variety of aircraft. So as some of you are pretty well aware, we are taking that concept and applying it to a wide variety of missions, starting first with cargo and refueling and then accelerating it from there.

So when we talk about mass, especially in the near peer competitive fight, we’re not just talking about massive aircraft, but we’re talking about massive mission types where we can be able to go deploy autonomy to refuel, to resupply, and free up our very precious human pilots to be able to go perform those high cognition missions that are best performed by a human and taking those missions that can be performed best by autonomous systems, dull, dirty, and dangerous missions, and enabling those to be flown by an autonomous system.

And we’re really excited to have an aircraft diagnostic autonomy platform where we can put it into everything from a very low cost King Air where we’re working in partnership with companies like Dynamic Aviation out of Virginia on their king air platforms, all the way up to highly sort of exquisite new aircraft like the C130J, and then some future platforms as well. So when we think about mass, we’re not just thinking about mass in terms of the number of aircraft. But we’re thinking about mass in terms of the missions and the types of aircraft that can be powered by autonomy.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Hey, Matt, we’ll circle back on autonomy in a second. It’d be pretty interesting, but Mark over to you for a discussion of mass and how ACPs might help that.

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

I think one of the things about mass is it needs to be affordable. I think one of the things that we’re seeing in Ukraine is the Russians, they had some good equipment, we think, but they didn’t have enough of it, and it wasn’t sustainable to deal with the conflict that they’re in. So I think when you think about mass, it’s got to be producible, it’s got to be affordable, it’s got to be trainable, and it’s got to be sustainable, or it’s not going to be relevant at the end of the day.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Not very good. Steven?

Steve Burd:

Yeah, I think there’s good points made here. I meant, like you said, ACPs, it’s plural. There will be different levels of autonomy. There will be different mission sets required of these vehicles. So we’re talking large numbers. And I’ll say as a nation, we have to find a way, whether through affordability or whatnot, to find a means to produce these in the quantities that we need within some of the financial constraints we have. Now, with that said, we know our peer adversaries are producing these in large quantities as well, and why do we need them? Well, in a couple respects, defensive. If our peer adversaries have quantities, well, we need to be able to interrupt any attacks that they have on their end. Having large quantities of various systems is a good enabler to help prevent the effectiveness of those attacks. Similarly, on the offensive, it’s all probabilities and effectiveness.

If we have enough of these quantities to perform the right missions with the right capabilities, that will allow us to increase our probabilities and effectiveness on the offensive side. Thirdly, they’re about protecting our pilots. We want our pilots to come home safely. And if you can couple the crewed aircraft with un-crewed aircraft, that’s a big step in the right direction to allowing that capability to happen. In addition, these platforms offer up new opportunities to battle in the war space, including special operations. And just by the mass, just bringing the confusion and the uncertainty, we need to maintain an advantage in the battlefield. It’s a complex situation. There’s a lot of needs out there. We’ll have to find that path. But at least from our perspective, the advantages in going this direction are very clear.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Very good, doctor. Hey, Matt, I’m going to come back to you here because there’s been a lot of talk about research and just figuring out what ACPs might look like. It’s not real clear. We had a workshop at Mitchell Institute for the audience not too long ago where we talked about ACPs. We had a number of experts and very interesting workshop with some tremendous insights. Well, you, Matt, at Merlin, you were saying you’re building autonomy software to allow larger aircraft to operate independently. What’s the state of autonomy technology? How could it be used for war fighting? Is it close? Far? Where is it at?

Matthew George:

So I’ll be controversial and say far. So I think if we had the ability to be able to go back and look at the last, I don’t know, 15 years of AFA where we talk about what the future of truly autonomous collaborative aircraft could look like. We’ve sort of been putting up the same slides for a really, really long time. I think what I’m most proud of about the work that we’re doing in Merlin, especially in collaboration with our partners at AFSOC and SOCOM, is being able to go take the first baby steps in order to be able to go get there. So for those of you who are pilots in the room, there’s a pretty gradated process to be able to become a pilot. We don’t first start you out and throw you in a dog fight with another fighter aircraft. We start with basic piloting skills.

So what we’re doing at Merlin about building an autonomous co-pilot allows us to be able to go build a pilot and gain tens of thousands of hours of trust in that pilot as the second required crew member aboard in the aircraft with a human pilot sitting by its side, able to be able to go safely take control of the aircraft. If we make this binary step to full autonomy where we’re taking a large amount of aircraft and putting it out into the world and saying it’s got to be perfect, then we’re going to be in a position where it’s never going to be perfect and we’re never going to fly anything, and we’re never going to field anything.

And our near peer competitors are going to continue to accelerate their progress against us. So my opinion, and I know is an opinion that other people may not share, but being able to go bring autonomy into very real steps by putting it into the cockpit of an Air Force aircraft, getting it up in the air, and then starting to build that experience actually on the aircraft as opposed to sitting and showing PowerPoints and renders and videos of what it could look like and actually demonstrating what it can look like, trained and trusted by a human pilot in the left seat.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Giddy-up, Matt. Thank you. That’s good. Let me segue a little bit here to talk about solving the range and payload issue. And Dr. Burd, you’re familiar with this. Given the premium that’s being placed on lower cost and mass, what’s Pratt & Whitney doing to balance this capability with lower cost? What are the trade-offs?

Steve Burd:

Yeah, without question, affordability is going to be a big part of the equation. We’re going to have to continue to strive to find ways that the air systems and the power and propulsion that are inherent to them find their way through business cases and manifest themselves in the way that we can procure these systems in large quantities. But there’s a but, what I’ll say is engine systems are not always a commodity. Some cases they’re being treated that. But when you look at these systems, as we just mentioned here, these systems will have different capabilities needs. They will have different mission sets.

All these different aspects, these requirements, these ilities that we’re going to be looking for from these systems do provide some differentiation that has to be recognized. Now, with that said, when you do look at these systems, and I’ll just speak from the engine side, is the low cost model maybe does work for some systems. If you’re looking at a low cost decoy where the capabilities are very focused in terms of getting a missile system to a destination over a certain time and distance, there could be opportunity for a low cost paradigm for those types of systems. But as you look at more sophisticated systems, that’s where the cost challenge becomes a little bit more difficult when you’re looking for capability that actually costs some money to develop and to deliver. So we’re very focused, I’ll say, on both ends at this point in time. We look at some of our smaller and mid-size engine platforms that will be prime candidates in the near term for these ACPs.

And we’re working very hard to find ways of continuing to reduce the cost of those systems through different approaches with manufacturing, supply chain, different design features, trying to add value to them to get more capability out of the same systems. And then on the far end, these systems, when you look at the fact that they’re going to be going into contested airspace, require significant power levels to accomplish the missions that they need for the sensors and the other systems. That’s where some large companies like ourselves, we do have some differentiating capabilities, and it’s really the onus on us is to continue to mature those capabilities so that they’re ready and they’re ready in a way that doesn’t break the bank. There’s a value with that. And that’s really our challenge, to make sure that we’re bringing forward the value that the customers are willing to pay for at the end. So again, different systems, different cost models, we recognize that, but you got to play the spectrum here, and that’s some of the challenges that I think we’re facing as a whole.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, very good. Let me ask, Mark, you, a question, because you’ve got some experience in this. One way that is envisioned to use UAVs is in a swarming behavior or tactic as you want to call it. There are not too many options to defend against this, and you’re working in that Mark at Elbit. You’re a lead for, I guess, the swarming UAS and encounter UAS initiatives. Can you tell us about that current state of play and are swarms a reality? Can we defend against them?

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

Thanks. Well, swarms are a reality. I mean, I think we’re seeing one of the things people are doing to overwhelm defenses is simply to employ large numbers of systems to defeat countermeasures. Elbit America really got into the counter UAS business as part of our border security program. I know this is AFA, maybe people in this audience don’t know the company that way. But Elbit America’s been involved in security for a number of years as a prime contractor along our border with Mexico, and we’re seeing a large number of commercial low-cost drones being employed by our adversaries in the border. And we’ve got a number of systems deployed down there to defend against those, and they’re highly effective. When you look at low cost drones, or frankly, any remotely piloted drone, right? I said earlier today, today what you’re primarily seeing are remotely piloted vehicles. So remotely piloted vehicles, the easiest way to attack them is to attack the data link.

If you’re remote in control of that, those data links, they’re making emissions. They can be detected, they can be targeted, they can be defeated. That’s being done, that’s an affordable thing to do, and it’s a highly effective defense at the moment. I think what we’ll see, if you look at the trend, I think you’ll see sort of an investment, counter-investment, counter-counter measure. I think that the unmanned systems, this is where you get into the autonomy, right? Because the data links, the remotely pilot aspect is the easiest way to feed them. You’re going to see platforms in the future that operate without that remote piloting, without a data link, and so now your primary method of defeating them is degraded. So now you have to be able to physically detect them.

Probably you’re going to need active sensors to actually detect them, but yet you have to be able to physically detect them without their own emissions, and you have to be able, probably, to kinetically defeat them. So this is where Elbit’s investing, right? We’re looking at high energy lasers to attack the target. We’re making major investments into new active sensors like radars, which can track thousands of targets simultaneously, and provide firing solutions so that they can be targeted and defeated. I think that’s the swarm of the future is going to be large numbers of vehicles that have to be detected, tracked, and defeated all in a very short amount of time. Yeah.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, we need that for base defense, so hurry it up if you would. So we see a lot of countries now who want to have this capability. You see an explosion of UAVs. We’ve either talked about Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, of course, Ukraine, and Russia. We see what’s going on there. Even Taiwan is stepping big into this. So I’d like to ask all three of you your thoughts about if you are a new entrant as a country, as a nation into the world of UAVs, what do you need to be prepared to do? What do you have to have in order to use this technology effectively? I’ll start with you, Matt.

Matthew George:

Yeah, I’ll defer to my two colleagues who work a little bit more closely on that end of the spectrum. But one of the things we’ve talked about is, particularly with some of our partners at the Air Force, is being able to go use the Air Force is existing advantage. So the Air Force that we built to the best air force in the world. So how can we take those assets that we already have and enable those assets to fly with high degrees of autonomy, with structural barriers for a new entrant to be able to come and compete with us one to one for those autonomous capabilities. Whereas, on the smaller end of the spectrum, we have seen throughout the world the ability for state and non-state actors to be able to go match us or get pretty close to matching us one for one in smaller systems.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Mark, how about it?

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

So a lot of our work is with the smaller systems, that’s where a lot of my comments are. And I guess the alarming answer to your question of what does it take to get in the business of unmanned aircraft is not a lot, right? I think what we’re seeing is that it’s pretty easy to get off the shelf technology, which is very readily available at low cost and put weapons on them. I mean, one of the most effective things that I’m seeing happening is just taking first person viewer racing drones that a lot of people here may operate and putting explosives on them and flying them right into targets. It requires very little technology. It requires very little money, it requires no training. These things are just bought by people and used every day, and they could be done in high numbers. So this is what we’re seeing is one of the reasons that I think we’re going to see a lot of need, investment and counters to those types of low cost systems.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, very good. Dr. Burd?

Steve Burd:

Yeah, I think both of you spoke well about the small side. I’ll just go a little bit to the larger side and I’ll bring it a little bit to what I’m seeing here domestically. There’s been a pretty large appetite for new companies, new entrance to try to enter the market. That on one side, it’s been very interesting seeing the innovation that’s coming forward from some of those. But on the flip side, we’re also seeing a lot of mixed results in that. We’re seeing a lot of interesting concepts out there, interesting prototypes and the like.

And I’ll say to your question, maybe the challenge here for us, for the United States and the like, is that when you look at these larger systems, getting that design, that concept design forward, that’s the easy part. To actually get a system out there that can work, that can function, that’s where there’s a lot of important knowhow out there within our industry today to make sure that the subsystems work, that the integration works, that we can deliver a system that can achieve its mission, has the endurance, the durability that can actually be produced at a higher rate with the capability we need.

So I bring this forward that there is a differentiation between the small side and maybe the higher, larger side, higher value type ACPs where I think there’s really a good opportunity to take advantage of what some of the new entrants are doing in getting them married with some of us and the OEMs to take some of those great vision concepts and make them a reality to help fill the void that we see as we look forward to bringing forward a whole family of ACPs.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, yeah. Very good. Thank you. Well, let’s go back to ACP technology, and I want to ask all of you, and I’ll start with Matt. Some of this technology is available today. Matt, you said a few minutes ago, some of it’s way out there a bit. But what are some of the major milestones or obstacles we’ll have to overcome to move forward with the technology we need for these notion of ACPs supporting other aircraft and maybe even operating independently? So, in other words, in five to 15 years down the road, where are we going to be with this technology, Matt?

Matthew George:

All of the technology problems for being able to go deploy a large aircraft autonomously, and when I say autonomously, I mean an aircraft, it’s able to go think on its own, not operated by a remote operator in sort of a link list environment. There’s some massive technology barriers that we still have to be able to go get there, but there’s no break-a-glass of physics technology problems in there. The problem, at least in our opinion, and in my opinion that I’ve seen the most, is the willingness of both the defense sector as well as the commercial sector to make small incremental progress along that pathway to be able to go get there. I think we often hang our hats on these huge technology problems of what if, what if, what if. And by doing lots of studies and by doing a lot of talking, we’re not actually out there going and flying, and we’re not actually substantially de-risking the problem.

So if somebody had a magic wand, or if I had a magic wand or actually a dangerous thing, you don’t want me with a magic wand, I promise. But if I had a magic wand, one of the things that I would do in order to be able to go meaningfully move this along is to create 24 month milestones of saying, how can we get autonomy onto an Air Force aircraft? And General Slife at AFSOC has been a really big proponent of this, where he has given us a 24 month time horizon to be able to go start to bring autonomy onto large Air Force aircraft and be able to go meaningfully demonstrate it. So by doing that, we can make so much more progress than if we do what we continue to do, which is really just think about it and delay instead of actually going flying, iterating, and flying again.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, Mark. Thanks, Matt.

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

So I think when you talk about ACP, the C is for collaborative, and so collaboratives, it’s two-way. So we’ve really, so far we’ve been talking a lot about the platforms, the unmanned platforms and what they’re going to do and the autonomy that they’re going to have and how they’ll make decisions and what payloads they’ll have. But there’s also the collaboration, which is the actual pilots, right? Pilots aren’t going away by any stretch. I think the future battle space is definitely going to need pilots. I think the airspace is going to be very crowded with large numbers of vehicles. You’re going to have a huge number of friendly manned and unmanned vehicles and a lot of enemy manned and unmanned vehicles.

And so one of the areas that we’re doing a lot of investing, thinking, talking to our partners in the Air Force about is what does the cockpit look like? What kind of sixth gen systems do you need as a pilot to be able to visualize that very crowded battle space, right? How can you understand what large numbers of things are doing at any point in time and then be able to provide direction often, to many of the friendly ones based on your understanding? How do you control those things, employ those things while still fighting the aircraft that you’re in. And so that’s really, I think, one of the challenges that we’ll have to solve before we reach the desired end state.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah, very good. And how about trust? Trust in these systems by those pilots.

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

Yeah, trust is a big one. I think it’s going to be incremental. I think you were talking about that. I think, in general, progress tends to be more incremental than revolution, revolutionary technology. I think we’ll begin to see things that are autonomous, but maybe not machine learning vehicles that are adapting and making all their own decisions. I think as a pilot and talking to pilots, I think pilots really want systems they can team with that they understand and can predict, right? I think you want systems that have a high degree of capability. But are really operating on some autonomy algorithms that you can understand and predict until you get more comfortable with them as a teammate. This is the way I think it’ll work, and of course it’s going to require some robust cyber protection as well.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

No, I appreciate that. Dr. Burd, back to that question about what obstacles are out there to get to the technology we need?

Steve Burd:

Yeah, I think to a good extent, we’re still trying to figure out what ACPs are and what we can do with them and what we want to do with them. I think there’s some really good dialog, some very good progress out there with a couple of platforms that there’s been company investment in, there’s been government investment in to really show what that capability might offer. But to a good extent, we’re not moving at the speed of relevancy. I know that’s a term that’s been out there. But I think it really applies in this instance in that there are a lot of things we can do, and we’re continuing to contemplate what those things are doing instead of starting to take some action. Right now, the possibilities are pretty large, and we need to get a little bit of focus out there so we can quickly mature platforms and get some of this capability fielded while we continue to figure out what the next generation of those capabilities could be.

So some of the challenges with that, I guess, lead to helping as a community figure out where our focus needs to be, aligning the budgets that are needed so that we can actually make that progress. And the fact that we have uncertainty, we don’t have solidified budgets. You look at someone like myself that’s representing a company, when we look at those two elements, that provides an awful lot of uncertainty in our business cases. So it really doesn’t bode well for us to invest in something that carries a lot of uncertainty. So really looking for those three pieces or four pieces to come together. A little better clarity of where we need to go, roadmaps and plans that are aligned with that so that we as a company in partnership with the government, can align and rally behind those roadmaps to get some parts and vehicles flying.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Yeah. Very well said. We’ve only got a couple minutes left, but you bring up, all three of you bring up a pretty good insight that the government, Department of the Air Force in particular might be able to do better, telling industry or communicating with industry about clear choices and going in a direction and getting to procurement. Any last minute comments on that from industry?

Matthew George:

Yeah, I think we’re living in a really exciting time. So from our perspective, for the first time, we have all the technology building blocks in order to make this happen. And we look out in the room, right? Selection bias of those of you who chose to spend some time in this room today during this panel, the folks here are going to be the folks that decide what the next 100 years of aviation look like. The previous 100 years are built around a human pilot. Unequivocally, the next 100 years are built around human pilots plus autonomy. We are at a pivotal moment where the technology’s available, and it is our collective choice about what to be able to go do with it.

And if we make small incremental progress towards that incredibly important end goal, to be able to go make our skies safer and to make airplane safer for our pilots, the opportunities are absolutely endless. But if we delay making those hard choices to be able to get to that future, we see the definition of that future to somebody else. And we’re working really, really hard at Merlin to be able to go define what that future is in collaboration with a lot of folks in this room. But that’s the imperative that we all have.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Well said. I’ll track it at that.

Col. Mark Stiner (Ret.):

Oh, I guess I would just conclude by saying I think the Air Force has done an amazing job of working with industry, our company included. I applaud you for being very open with industry and doing an excellent job of really describing how you see future conflicts playing out and what types of things you’ll need to include the area of unmanned systems and autonomous systems, and how you envision using those. I think to really move forward, the next step is going to be to actually lay out acquisition strategies to acquire those things and timelines, and when will there be competitions and when will there be contract awards, because that’s really what’s going to allow industry to align their investments to have the products ready for the competitions.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Thanks, Mark. Take them, Steve.

Steve Burd:

Yeah, and I agree with both the other panel members here. I mean, the conversations, the dialog up to this point in time have been really productive in terms of describing what the art of the possible is. It is time at this point in time to translate that into acquisition strategies, roadmaps, and the like. We as a company are making small, medium-sized large bets on, I’d say, our read of the situation. Again, walking into a little cloud of uncertainty. The more we can clarify where we need to go, what those plans will be, what those programs and records will be, that’ll help align where we go. It’ll help pretty much light the fire behind our butts so that we can move more quickly. So those things are needed. Again, you look at the situation, we have to move faster and we have to move now.

Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem (Ret.):

Very good. Well, thanks to Merlin Labs, and Elbit, and Pratt & Whitney for your participation today. Gents, thank you for being on the panel. That concludes our panel. I do want to give… We’re about 20 seconds over. There is another event today on manned teaming, myth and reality. It’ll be here in Potomac C, at 15:45, hosted by Mitchell Zone, Heather Penney, and it extends this in great depth, this conversation into some other areas that I think you all will enjoy. So, thanks for all your service. This concludes the panel.

NATO, Russia to Hold Nuclear Exercises Despite Tensions

NATO, Russia to Hold Nuclear Exercises Despite Tensions

Russia and NATO will go ahead with large-scale nuclear exercises in the coming weeks despite concern over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hints that the Ukraine war might prompt him to turn to his nuclear arsenal, U.S. and NATO officials said.

The NATO exercise, called Steadfast Noon, involves American nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and fighter jets, which will not carry live munitions, White House National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby told reporters Oct. 13.

The upcoming NATO exercise involving 14 countries has been long planned, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said delaying or canceling the exercise would send the wrong message about NATO’s resolve in the face of Russian aggression.

“It would send a very wrong signal if we suddenly now canceled a routine, long-time planned exercise because of the war in Ukraine. That would be absolutely the wrong signal to send,” Stoltenberg said. “NATO’s firm, predictable behavior, our military strength, is the best way to prevent escalation.”

The U.S. twice put off routine tests of its Minuteman III missile this year, the first time to avoid inflaming tensions with Russia during the Ukraine crisis and the second time to avoid any miscalculation on China’s part as the Chinese military engaged in a show of force near Taiwan. A Minuteman III test launch eventually took place Aug. 16.

U.S. officials predicted that Russia would soon go ahead with its own large-scale nuclear exercises. The Russian drills would be the second since February 2022. Putin oversaw the February exercise that tested sea, land, and air-based ballistic and cruise missiles and other weapons.

“We expect Russia to conduct its annual strategic nuclear exercise—they call it GROM—as early as this month,” Kirby added.

The Western officials cautioned that the Russian exercise was expected and did not appear to be linked to Putin’s suggestions that Moscow might resort to nuclear weapons in the face of setbacks in Ukraine.

In a national address Sept. 21, Putin warned that “Russia will use all the instruments at its disposal to counter a threat against its territorial integrity.” He added, “This is not a bluff.”

“We will monitor that as we always do,” Stoltenberg said of the upcoming Russian exercise. “And, of course, we will remain vigilant, not least in light of the veiled nuclear threats and the dangerous rhetoric we have seen from the Russian side.”

Some nuclear policy experts expressed concern that Russian and NATO nuclear exercises might heighten apprehensions as each side seeks to determine what options might be tested.

“The events are normal,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists in an interview. “But we don’t know, of course, what’s being exercised, whether that is also normal.”

The Russians, for their part, might portray the NATO exercise as an ominous development and use it as pretext to escalate their activities in the region.

“That is definitely a danger,” Kristensen added.

The Western officials stressed that the NATO exercise will take place more than 600 miles away from Russia and does not involve a Ukraine scenario. “This exercise is not linked to any real-world events or what Russia is doing,” Kirby said.

ACC and USAF HQ are Crafting Collaborative Combat Aircraft Requirements

ACC and USAF HQ are Crafting Collaborative Combat Aircraft Requirements

While collaborative combat aircraft are among Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s “operational imperatives,” Air Combat Command was already working on the idea, the Air Force reported.

Kendall “has been providing direction for Collaborative Combat Aircraft” to ACC through the operational imperatives, but Headquarters, Air Force, and ACC “were already in the process of identifying a path to realize CCA capability” when Kendall set the concept among the list of OIs, a USAF spokesperson said.

Senior USAF leaders at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference in September said they were looking for a swift pace of experimentation, prototyping, and production of CCAs—in as few as two years—but the concept is still far from defined as to what missions the uncrewed aircraft will perform, how sophisticated they need to be, and how they will take direction from and interact with the human pilots in their formations. Kendall has broadly suggested that as many as “four or five” CCAs could accompany a single crewed aircraft. He sees CCAs as an affordable way to expand USAF capacity and to compel an enemy to expend many munitions to disable an attacking USAF formation.

Asked whether the CCA requirement is being handed down to ACC from USAF leaders, or whether there is a “pull” requirement from ACC, Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter said at the conference, “That’s a good question.”  

He continued that the requirements community “was an integral part” of creating the OIs: “So I would say that, as far as I can tell, we have very strong buy-in from the requirements community [and] from ACC” as to the need for, and utility of, CCAs. But he could not say exactly how the requirement was generated or where it stood in the requirements process.

The spokesperson said Headquarters, Air Force, and ACC “are now working with industry to further develop requirement documents.”

The issue is not trivial, as USAF leaders have for years lamented that promising new concepts or technologies, developed in the labs and potentially even used in live experiments and exercises, sometimes fail to transition to programs of record without a “pull” requirement from a user command, which may not even know the technology exists. This gap between concept and program of record is often referred to as “the valley of death.”

Hunter, at the AFA conference, said USAF leaders remain “engaged continuously” with user commands.

He noted, too, some “cultural resistance” to the idea of CCAs, saying this is to be expected because “change is hard.” But he also said CCAs have top-down support from Kendall, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., and ACC commander Gen. Mark D. Kelly.

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies formally released a paper Oct. 13, “Five Imperatives for Developing Collaborative Combat Aircraft for Teaming Operations,” which urges the Pentagon to get operators involved with developing the nascent technology, to ensure that it is combat-relevant and user-friendly. The paper had previously been briefed to reporters.

The paper recommends that, before rushing to field CCAs, the Air Force first develop a concept of operations as well as tactics, techniques, and procedures for their use, with heavy pilot and operator input. The technology will have no value unless pilots feel they know what CCAs will do and can trust them to do it, paper author Heather Penney said.

She also noted that the Air Force has work to do to ensure resilient communications with CCAs in contested and denied airspace; and to develop procedures for what CCAs will do in a “comms out” situation. Finally, the Mitchell paper recommends the Air Force ensure that adding CCAs to combat formations doesn’t unduly burden pilots with additional work that might be unmanageable.

“There is a risk … of task saturation” unless this is taken into account early, with the development of software and the human-machine interface, Penney said on a streaming event.

Although Penney warns that the Air Force’s fighter pilot shortage will make it challenging to find ones able to help in CCA development, Maj. Gen. Charles S. Corcoran, assistant deputy chief of staff for operations, said development teams should instead “set up shop … in squadrons” so they can learn the environment pilots operate in firsthand and gradually insert CCAs into exercises, the better to familiarize pilots with what they can do and to tweak those capabilities to be “truly useful.”

Proposed NDAA Amendments Would Block T-1, C-40 Retirements—but Increase A-10 Cuts

Proposed NDAA Amendments Would Block T-1, C-40 Retirements—but Increase A-10 Cuts

The Senate will deliberate over the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act in the coming weeks after leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee took the annual policy bill to the floor Oct. 11.

And as lawmakers debate the legislation, they’ll also have to contend with more than 900 amendments that had been filed as of Oct. 13. Already, Republican and Democratic leaders have agreed to a block of 75 amendments, Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the SASC, remarked from the Senate floor.

Of the hundreds more still to be considered, some have little to do with national security, with Senators simply hoping to attach their proposals to a bill that is typically considered must-pass. Others touch on everything from the COVID-19 vaccine mandate to military housing and child care to funding for specific programs.

For the Air Force, in particular, a number of lawmakers have proposed provisions that would affect the service’s fleet of aircraft and its personnel.

In years past, members of Congress have used the NDAA to block the Air Force from divesting or retiring older aircraft. That process could play out again, as Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) introduced an amendment that would prohibit any funds authorized in the NDAA from being used to reduce the size of the T-1 Jayhawk trainer fleet.

The Air Force has been planning to phase out the T-1A in favor of pilot training that relies heavily on simulators, an approach dubbed Undergraduate Pilot Training 2.5. In its 2023 budget request, the service asks to retire 50 of the 178 trainers.

While Hyde-Smith wants to stop that from happening this year, she introduced a separate amendment offering the Air Force a roadmap for what it will take for her to get on board with retiring the T-1. That provision, co-sponsored by Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), would prohibit any T-1 retirements until UPT 2.5 has been implemented across the service and USAF submits a date to Congress by which the T-7A trainer will achieve full operational capability—current estimates put that in 2034.

Both Hyde-Smith and Wicker represent Columbus Air Force Base, Miss., which hosts a squadron of T-1s.

It’s not just the T-1 that could be saved from retirement. Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth from Illinois introduced another amendment that would block any 2023 funds from being used to retire the C-40 Clipper, a transport aircraft that carries senior military commanders, Cabinet officials, and members of Congress.

Their amendment follows on a similar proposal in the House version of the NDAA, also introduced by Illinois lawmakers—much of the small C-40 fleet is based out of Scott Air Force Base, Ill.

Meanwhile, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) proposed legislation that would block the Air Force from reducing the capability or manpower in any B-1 bomber squadron so it can’t meet its current “designed operational capability statement.” The only exception would be for squadrons in the process of replacing B-1s with new B-21 Raiders.

That amendment was one of two Cruz proposed to keep the B-1 relevant for the future fight. The Air Force is planning to move away from it in the coming years. In a second proposal, Cruz, along with Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), calls for an extra $30 million in research money for testing hypersonic weapon systems on the B-1.

And it’s not just aircraft that lawmakers are trying to save. In separate amendments, both Hyde-Smith and Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) proposed prohibiting the divestment of any “Tactical Control Party specialist force structure from the Air National Guard” until the Chief of the National Guard Bureau, along with the Chief of Staff of the Army and the Commandant of the Marine Corps, submit a report detailing the capability gaps such a move would create.

Amid all the moves to block retirements, however, one proposed amendment would do just the opposite. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) introduced legislation declaring that the Air Force “shall divest 42 A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft” in 2023.

Such a move would go beyond the Air Force’s own proposal to cut 21 A-10s and would mark a significant reversal from years past, when lawmakers have persistently stopped the service from retiring the beloved close air support jet.

Whether or not the Senate approves Scott’s amendment, Congress does seem poised to finally allow at least some A-10 retirements to happen, with other versions of the NDAA allowing the proposed cut of 21 to stand.

DAF’s New Civilian Career Roadmaps Aim for More Diverse, Functionally Proficient Leaders

DAF’s New Civilian Career Roadmaps Aim for More Diverse, Functionally Proficient Leaders

The Department of the Air Force hopes to improve both diversity and retention within its 170,000-member civilian workforce by introducing a pair of career roadmaps—one of them tailored to developing “functional leaders” for the first time.

Civilians should look over the two roadmaps—the other a more conventional path for “enterprise leaders”—and decide which one they want to pursue, then communicate with supervisors and career field managers for more details, according to a video by the Air Force Personnel Center that compares the two paths. 

A DAF-commissioned study by the RAND Corp. published in 2020 found that women and Black and Hispanic men started at lower civilian pay grades, on average, than White men. Women, in particular, were less likely to “catch up” over the years, in turn limiting their numbers eligible for senior leadership. Women and minority groups generally believed a person’s sex and race affected promotion opportunities, and an analysis of data revealed that women made up about 35 percent of civilians overall but only 21 percent of those in the top two pay grades.

The RAND study also found that a perceived lack of advancement opportunities and the expectation of geographic mobility—the willingness to pack up and move—negatively affected retention.

The DAF’s civilian science and engineering career fields employed the relative fewest racial and ethnic minorities and women, according to a 2021 report on disparities by the department’s inspector general. The IG office confirmed that the DAF’s civilian workforce had “seen improvements in minority and female representation,” possibly attributed to “significant policy changes” adopted in 2015.

The new roadmaps are appropriate for civilian employees “whether they are mobile and aspire to be enterprise leaders or whether they want to be the best functional expert they can be in their given locale,” Glenda Scheiner, director of civilian force management, said.

The roadmap to develop “functional leaders” departs the most from the DAF’s conventional talent management process, according to a news release announcing the change. The functional roadmap emphasizes deeper technical expertise in a single functional area rather than the broader, cross-functional experience encouraged on the enterprise side.

Once a staff member chooses a roadmap, they won’t be locked in.

“Leaders understand that career aspirations and personal circumstances may change,” according to the release, so people may switch “at any given point in time.” To accompany the new functional and enterprise roadmaps, “career field managers will build career-specific versions” of each DAF-level roadmap.

The roadmaps outline the experience, education and training, and leadership roles civilians should pursue for advancement throughout their careers. Both tracks emphasize functional proficiency early in a career and furthering the technical expertise later on.

On the enterprise side, recommended education maxes out at a master’s degree and offers the possibility of a degree in management, with some required professional military education. Functional leaders, on the other hand, should seek master’s or doctoral degrees in a specific discipline, with PME being optional.  

RAND’s study recommended formally requiring supervisors and managers to take part in their staff’s career development. The DAF did not immediately reply to n question about whether it will require supervisors to address the new roadmaps with their staffs.