Chinese Surveillance Balloon Shot Down By F-22 After Crossing the US

Chinese Surveillance Balloon Shot Down By F-22 After Crossing the US

Feb. 4, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. Air Force successfully shot down a Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4, ending days of uproar, speculation, and confusion. At 2:39 pm Eastern time, an F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder into the approximately 90-foot wide balloon, causing it to fall towards the Atlantic Ocean, according to senior U.S. defense and military officials.

“We successfully took it down, and I want to compliment our aviators who did it,” President Joe Biden said.

F-15s from Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass., well as well as multiple tankers assisted in the effort, according to the Pentagon. In a briefing to reporters, U.S. defense and military officials said an F-22 fired the Sidewinder from 58,000 feet, hitting the balloon operating at around 60,000 to 65,000 feet. It is the first known air-to-air takedown for an F-22. The shootdown came after the U.S. ordered a ground stop at nearby airports and closed airspace in the vicinity.

“At the direction of President Biden, U.S. fighter aircraft assigned to U.S. Northern Command successfully brought down the high altitude surveillance balloon launched by and belonging to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the water off the coast of South Carolina in U.S. airspace,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement. “The balloon, which was being used by the PRC in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States, was brought down above U.S. territorial waters.”

For days, the Department of Defense sought to explain how a surveillance asset from its main rival had managed to end up—and stay—in American airspace, even as the U.S. acknowledged it was tracking the balloon that was trying to take a peek at sensitive national security sites.

The balloon first entered the U.S.’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) near Alaska on Jan. 28, north of the Aleutian Islands and moved largely across land, a senior defense official said. North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) has previously escorted warplanes planes out of the U.S.’s ADIZ, which serves as a protective buffer beyond U.S. airspace. But the balloon continued to fly even as the U.S. tracked it, the official said, and entered Canadian airspace on Jan. 30., which is protected jointly by the U.S. and Canada through NORAD, before reentering U.S. airspace in northern Idaho Jan. 31.

F-22s from Nellis Air Force Base, Nev. were scrambled on Feb. 1, when the senior defense official said the U.S. considered shooting down the balloon over Montana—where Malmstrom Air Force Base, one of U.S.’s nuclear international continental ballistic missile (ICBM) sites, is located.

“After careful analysis, U.S. military commanders had determined downing the balloon while over land posed an undue risk to people across a wide area, due to the size and altitude of the balloon and its surveillance payload,” Austin said.

The Pentagon’s failure to acknowledge the incident until Feb. 2—after it had been spotted by civilians over Montana—prompted consternation on both sides of the aisle in Congress. The incident led to the cancellation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s scheduled visit to China, which was supposed to occur Feb. 3. It would have been the first cabinet-level visit by a U.S. official to occur during the Biden administration.

China claimed the balloon was a weather balloon that had drifted off course.

“China regrets that the airship strayed into the United States due to force majeure,” China’s foreign ministry said in a statement Feb. 3., referring to a situation out of its control.

U.S. officials did not buy that assertion, saying it was clearly a spy asset, and Austin said in his statement the balloon’s flight was an “unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.”

It is also apparently not the first incident of its type. Pentagon officials said Chinese surveillance balloons have entered U.S. airspace since the Trump administration, though the U.S. has not previously acknowledged the incidents. And America has not been the only nation targeted.

“Over the past several years, Chinese balloons have previously been spotted over countries across five continents, including in East Asia, South Asia and Europe,” a senior defense official said. The Pentagon said another Chinese balloon is currently flying over Latin America.

Members of the president’s own party have called for further explanation from the administration and the Pentagon, even as they praised the way Biden handled the situation. Many Republicans blasted the administration for not shooting down the balloon earlier. After the downing, Biden said that he had ordered the balloon shot down “as soon as possible” on Feb. 1, but it was unsafe to do so at that time.

“President Biden made the right decision to shoot down this alleged Chinese spy balloon out of range of American civilians and infrastructure,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said in a statement Feb. 4. “I look forward to a full briefing on the situation and U.S. plans moving ahead.”

As the balloon finally drifted over the Atlantic, two Langley F-22s, using the callsigns FRANK01 and FRANK02, finally brought the balloon down. A NORTHCOM spokesperson said the callsigns were a homage to Lt. Frank Luke Jr., a World War 1 ace and Medal of Honor recipient. Luke was nicknamed the “Arizona Balloon Buster” after destroying 14 German balloons in 17 days. Luke Air Force Base, Ariz. is named in his honor.

The Navy and Coast Guard are searching for the balloon debris in 47 feet of water six miles off the coast of South Carolina, according to the DOD, though debris could be spread for miles.

“I ordered the Pentagon to shoot it down,” Biden said. “The best time to do that was when it got over water.”

B-1s Join F-22s and S. Korean F-35s, in Latest Bomber Task Force Mission

B-1s Join F-22s and S. Korean F-35s, in Latest Bomber Task Force Mission

Feb. 3, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

A pair of U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers and F-22 Raptors flew alongside F-35s from the Republic of Korea on Feb. 1—the third bomber flight near the Korean Peninsula in recent months. The jets then trained Feb. 3 with USAF F-22s, Marine Corps F-35Bs, and ROK F-35s. 

The B-1s subsequently flew to Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, to kick off another Bomber Task Force deployment.

The Republic of Korea Defense Ministry announced the first round of joint air training Feb. 2, saying the aircraft linked up over the Yellow Sea, just west of the Peninsula. The ROK Air Force announced the second round Feb. 3, according to multiple media reports, noting that it also took place over the Yellow Sea. 

A Pacific Air Forces spokesman confirmed to Air & Space Forces Magazine that the B-1s came from Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., and the F-22s came from Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. A release from PACAF announced the Bomber Task Force mission.

The combined flight marks the first combined air training between the ROK, or South Korean, Air Force and the U.S. Air Force in 2023, though U.S. bombers have become a frequent sight in the skies near South Korea recently.  

In late December, B-52 Stratofortresses from Barksdale Air Force Base, La., flew alongside American F-22s and ROK F-35s and F-15s around Jeju Island south of the peninsula. And in November, B-1s from Ellsworth flew over the Peninsula for the first time in five years. 

In both cases, the bombers’ flights represented shows of force shortly after North Korea conducted missile tests. 

These most recent flights came just a days after Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III visited Seoul and pledged alongside South Korean defense minister Lee Jong-sup to increase the size and scope of joint U.S.-ROK military exercises. That includes increased participation from fifth-gen fighters and strategic bombers. 

Ellsworth B-1s last participated in an Indo-Pacific BTF in the fall, from October to November. 

“It’s a privilege to be back in the Pacific area of responsibility and to be on the forward-edge of deterring our adversaries and supporting our Allies,” Maj. Abraham Moreland, assistant director of operations for the 34th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, said in a statement. “The relationships we have with our Allies in the region are crucial to the security of the Indo-Pacific, and the partnerships we build while out here give our aircrews the critical training and experience necessary to be successful in this environment.”

The U.S. missions both reassure South Korea and respond to mounting pressure from North Korea, where Kim Jong Un has stepped up missile tests and recently launched drones over South Korean airspace. 

With tensions increasing, South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol made waves by saying his country may be forced to either ask the U.S. to redeploy nuclear arms on the peninsula or to develop nuclear weapons of its own. And a recent independent, bipartisan commission recommended the two countries begin “pre-decisional” discussions about what it would take to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the region. 

Replacing Physical Prototypes with the Digital Twin

Replacing Physical Prototypes with the Digital Twin

Feb. 3, 2023 | By Todd Tuthill

Since its inception, the digital twin has proven to be a revolutionary design tool for the aerospace and defense (A&D) industry. The ability to develop and test new products using virtual models (digital twins) before producing them physically has saved companies valuable time and money. Digital twins are used throughout the program lifecycle and have reduced engineers’ reliance on physical prototypes. Yet when can we stop building prototypes altogether?

There are still multiple obstacles in the A&D industry that prevent the comprehensive digital twin from replacing physical prototypes. These obstacles can be narrowed down to culture, processes, and technology.

To begin, imagine hearing on your next commercial flight, “Welcome to Autonomous Airways. This is our inaugural pilotless flight.” Then you hear the pilot’s welcome message from a voice that sounds like your iPhone. Most of us would unbuckle our seat belts and leave the plane. 

The technology to enable pilotless commercial flight already exists, but it is not yet certified, and more importantly, it is not yet culturally acceptable. Ninety percent of your last commercial flight was already flown by a computer, but we all feel much better knowing that a real human pilot is there to take over if the computer makes a mistake. 

We as people will need to build confidence in autonomous aircraft in careful, methodological steps. Building confidence in the comprehensive digital twin to replace physical prototypes will be no different. Engineers, program leaders, and regulatory agencies will need to learn to accept digital twins as prototypes, starting with less complex systems like circuit boards and landing gear struts, gradually scaling up toward full aircraft models.

This will require a change in our processes relating to prototypes and digital twins. Presently, engineers build a digital twin to model what they expect from physical hardware. These digital twins have enabled a “fly it before you build it mindset” Next, they build and test a physical prototype of said hardware and use the data gathered from those tests to validate their digital twin. This type of process sees truth in the physical piece, not the digital twin. To replace physical prototypes, engineers, program leaders, and regulatory agencies need to believe that the digital twin is the truth, eventually circumventing the need for validation testing with real hardware. 

Engineers already have tools and software to virtually replicate complex systems. However, the integration of these simulated systems must continue to improve. Add this integration to seamless, out of the box simulation, with the right fidelity, running in real time, and confidence in digital twin performance will significantly increase. Continually validating and optimizing these digital twins with data and insights from physical test will eventually provide the fidelity and confidence needed to enable modeling and validation of very complex systems that have yet to be built in the physical world.

Replacing physical prototypes with digital twins requires visionary leaders throughout our industry who believe it can be done, who can inspire their companies to believe in it, too. Obstructions in culture, processes, and technology may prevent it now, but they will be overcome in time, and physical prototypes will go the way of slide rules and 8-track tapes.

About the Author:

Todd Tuthill is the Vice President for Aerospace and Defense at Siemens Digital Industries Software. He joined Siemens in June of 2022 after more than 30 years in the Aerospace and Defense industry. His engineering background is in systems design with functional engineering and program leadership roles and a strong vision for digital transformation. 

Tuthill’s aerospace leadership career spans McDonnell Douglas/Boeing, Moog, Raytheon and Siemens, and his experience encompasses all aspects of A&D programs, including design, model-based systems engineering, software engineering, lean product development, supplier/partner management and program management. In his new role at Siemens, Tuthill is a passionate advocate for the advancement of digital transformation across the A&D Industry.

US Gains Access to More Bases in the Philippines

US Gains Access to More Bases in the Philippines

Feb. 2, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The U.S. will be able to rotate troops and build facilities at four military bases in the Philippines, officials from the two countries announced Feb. 1, deepening their military cooperation to counter China. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez made the joint announcement during Austin’s visit to the Philippines.  

The deal expands the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which did not allow U.S. troops to be based in the Philippines but did authorize access to “agreed locations … on a rotational basis, for security cooperation exercises, joint and combined military training activities, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief activities,” according to the State Department. 

The two countries had previously agreed to five locations, including four air bases. The U.S. has already allocated $82 million in infrastructure for those bases, the Pentagon noted in a release. 

Officials declined to name the locations of the four new bases, with Galvez saying in a joint press conference that they will do so after consultations with local authorities. Possibilities include Clark Air Base, where the U.S. Air Force operated until 1991. In 2012, the Philippines agreed to give U.S. forces limited access to the base. 

The U.S. and the Philippines have a long military relationship, dating back to the Spanish-American War, after which the U.S. acquired the territory from Spain. Even after its independence following World War II, tens of thousands of Filipinos joined and served in the American military, and the U.S. maintained a robust presence in the Philippines for decades. In 1991, the Philippine Senate voted not to reauthorize the basing agreement, and the U.S. left its bases there the following year.

Even after that, the two countries maintained close ties and conducted frequent military exercises together. During President Rodrigo Duterte time in office, he threatened to scale back joint exercises with the U.S. and pursued closer ties with Russia and China. That delayed implementation of the EDCA. 

After Duterte left office in 2022, he was succeeded by Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of controversial former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who ruled for more than 20 years, imposing martial law for part of that time. 

Under the younger Marcos, relations between the U.S. and the Philippines have strengthened, and EDCA projects are again ramping up. Said Austin: “This relationship is strong, and we will continue to work hard to strengthen it further.” 

Last week U.S.. Pacific Air Forces Airmen visited Clark Air Base and Basa Air Base in the Philippines for a subject matter expert exchange with the Philippine Air Force. They discussed “munitions, maintenance, logistics, and hot pit refueling … [in] a precursor to cooperation in future large exercises in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to a Feb. 2 news release. 

Galvez expressed interest in expanding the Philippine Air Force’s capabilities with U.S. platforms and further engagements in the future.  

“We really need C-130s, and also those Black Hawks that we bought that we configured to search-and-rescue capability,” Galvez said. The Philippines signed a deal for 32 Black Hawk helicopters in February 2022 and has made moves to acquire C-130Js as well. 

F-22s Scramble from Nellis in Response to Chinese Spy Balloon Over US

F-22s Scramble from Nellis in Response to Chinese Spy Balloon Over US

Feb. 2, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev.—The Pentagon is tracking what it says is a Chinese surveillance balloon over the continental United States, it said Feb. 2.

The U.S. military scrambled two Air Force F-22 Raptors from Nellis Air Force Base, Nev. on Feb. 1 in response to the incident, Air & Space Forces Magazine has confirmed. A senior defense official said the U.S. considered shooting the balloon down over Montana.

“We had been looking at whether there was an option yesterday over some sparsely populated areas in Montana,” the senior defense official told reporters Feb. 2. “But we just couldn’t buy down the risk enough to feel comfortable recommending shooting it down yesterday.”

The balloon remains over the U.S., though the Pentagon said they do not think it poses a significant risk.

“The U.S. government, to include NORAD, continues to track and monitor it closely,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said. “The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.”

The U.S. has been “tracking it for some time” after the balloon “entered the continental United States airspace a couple of days ago,” the senior defense official said.

The senior defense official said President Joe Biden was briefed on the balloon and asked for military options. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, who was on travel in the Philippines, convened top senior military leaders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley and Air Force Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the head of North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM).

The senior defense official said Milley and VanHerck recommended “not to take kinetic action due to the risk to safety and security of people on the ground from the possible debris field,” which led to Biden deciding not to use force against the balloon. According to the Pentagon, the balloon is still at a “high altitude” over the continental U.S., though they declined to specify its protected flight path or current location.

A ground stop occurred Feb. 1 at the airport in Billings, Mont. according to air traffic control data, where the senior defense official noted the U.S. considering shooting the balloon down. Residents in Montana noted an unusual object in the sky, according to local media reports. A user on Twitter captured a video of the two F-22s refueling over Utah.

The Air Force maintains intercontinental ballistic missile fields across a wide swath of Montana, as part of the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont.—one of three American strategic nuclear ICBM bases.

“Clearly the intent of this balloon is for surveillance,” the senior defense official said. “And so the current flight path does carry it over a number of sensitive sites.”

The U.S. is confident the balloon is from the People’s Republic of China, Pentagon officials said.

“I’m not going to go into all the ways in which we know that it’s a PRC balloon,” the senior defense official said. “I will just say we have very high confidence that this is a PRC balloon. Very high confidence. So we do not doubt that this is a PRC balloon. And that is an assessment shared across our intelligence and analytic community.”

The Pentagon declined to provide exact details on the size of the balloon, though the senior defense official said it was “sizable” and would have posed a risk to civilians on the ground if it was shot down due to its size and height. The senior defense official noted reports of pilots spotting the balloon.

Ryder said “instances of this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years.”

The senior defense official noted, however, that the balloon was staying over the U.S. longer than in previous cases.

“It is not the first time that you had a balloon of this nature cross over the continental United States,” the senior defense official said. “It has happened a handful of other times over the past few years, to include before this administration. It is appearing to hang out for a long period of time this time around, more persistent than in previous instances.”

The incident comes at a sensitive time. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was due to travel to China in the coming days in an effort to open channels of communication between the two countries. It is not clear if that visit will go ahead. High-level military-to-military talks between China and the U.S. have not occurred despite a recent public plea by Austin after a Chinese jet intercepted a U.S. Air Force RC-135 over the South China Sea in what the Pentagon said was an unsafe manner. The Pentagon said they were unsure what motivated the Chinese to send a spy balloon over America.

“I don’t know why they did what they did,” the senior defense official said. “I will say that the past number of times it did not loiter over the continental United States for an extended period of time. It’s different. And precisely why they made the decision to make this different I think really is a question for them.”

Air Force Launches New Stealthy Tanker Program, with Delivery Projected for 2040

Air Force Launches New Stealthy Tanker Program, with Delivery Projected for 2040

Feb. 2, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force launched its search for the Next-Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS), a stealthy tanker project intended to deliver its first aircraft around 2040, with a Jan. 31 request for information to industry. The new tanker is to be capable of surviving in contested airspace, but the service is open to all ideas about its size and performance.

Contractors are invited to submit ideas for the NGAS that will be considered in an Analysis of Alternatives getting underway in October, according to the announcement on SAM.gov. Responses to the RFI are due March 2.

The RFI marks the formal start of what has previously been called “KC-Z.” The KC-X program became the KC-46 now being acquired; the KC-Y has become the so-called “bridge tanker” still in definition, and KC-Z the Air Force now refers to as NGAS, or “increment three” of its three-phase tanker recapitalization effort.

The Defense Innovation Unit and the Air Force are already looking at concepts for a future blended-wing body tanker, but the Jan. 31 solicitation specifically leaves open the configuration.

The Air Force “is interested in innovative solutions in all size and performance classes that might address the stressing mission requirements” of delivering fuel in contested airspace, the announcement said. The speed of the aircraft concepts submitted “should be compatible with modern receivers.”

The concepts put forward can have novel technologies or operational concepts, but the Air Force said all the risk needs to be ironed out to a Technology Readiness Level of 6—meaning a representative model or prototype system has been tested in a relevant environment—before 2032.  

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, speaking on a Council on Foreign Relations webinar on Jan. 11, said the threat posed by China is driving the Air Force away from traditional tankers, wherein a commercial aircraft is adapted into a mobility aircraft.

“The threat’s taking that freedom away from us,” he said, adding that with new cargo and tanker aircraft designs, USAF has to put “a high premium on survivability.” Chinese and other adversary aircraft and missiles can track tankers and shoot them from long range, compelling the Air Force to move toward survivable concepts, he said. The new tanker will have to “move beyond” traditional concepts and “survive in an environment the current fleet hasn’t had to work [in].”

In June 2022, the Air Force sent out a request for the “Advanced Aerial Refueling Family of Systems,” a dual-track program seeking a KC-46 follow-on with additional capabilities like a communications node and advanced navigation systems, while separately pursuing an advanced tanker with the survivability to operate near enemy airspace. The NGAS is now defined as that second track.

Kendall has indicated he thinks an improved KC-46 will likely be the solution to the “bridge tanker” requirements, consistently downplaying the idea of a competition.

A proposed amendment to the fiscal 2023 defense budget mandating a bridge tanker competition didn’t make it to the final bill, but supporters have said they will try again this year.

The request for info for the NGAS instructs industry to provide detailed performance characteristics of potential aircraft, including their size and weight, “takeoff and landing, climb, cruise, and representative mission performance.” The Air Force also wants to know if the aircraft proposed can use “regional or improvised airfields or other, non-traditional basing.”

The new tankers will have to be able to receive fuel in mid-air as well as provide it to other aircraft. The respondents should also identify the level of maturity of the designs, what the greatest risk areas are, and how contractors would mitigate them in a development program. Officials want “timelines to fielding” the proposed solutions.

Respondents should explain how their solutions might “change the way aerial refueling operations would be executed,” what operational or support changes would be needed to introduce these new concepts, and how “your proposed solution [will] increase, improve, or expand the current and planned capabilities of the tanker fleet (including KC-135, KC-46, and Bridge Tanker).”

The concepts also have to address how they will support unmanned aerial systems and “address anticipated threats … in the 2040 timeframe.” Industry respondents also need to submit their ideas on how they will counter cyber threats to their aircraft concepts, and broadly, identify the “high-level cost implications” for any new technologies put forth. Potential offerors also have to state what kinds of engines they would put on their aircraft and what kind of fuel savings they can achieve versus present-day tankers.

The program will make use of digital modeling and simulation techniques and any proposals must use a modular, open-systems architecture.

The Air Force also wants to know if the proposers can offer “innovative teaming arrangements of traditional military prime contractors with non-military contractors to achieve a mix of experience in advanced aero-configuration design, lean programs, and rapid airframe development and manufacturing.” The service is looking to expand it supplier base both to increase competition and avoid “vendor lock,” wherein a particular contractor enjoys a virtual monopoly on upgrades and software.

Industry has already offered up a variety of approaches to future tankers, ranging from blended wing body concepts to small, highly stealthy tankers that could penetrate heavily defended airspace along with strike aircraft.

Last month at the annual American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics convention and exposition, Boeing unveiled a stealthy-looking hybrid blended wing body concept for mobility applications having a butterfly empennage and embedded engines. Lockheed Martin has also shown stealthy BWB-type concepts for future airlifters and tankers.

Kendall said there’s no commercial blended-wing body concept the Air Force can take advantage of “yet,” but the service is looking at such concepts with the DIU because commercial variants could also significantly reduce the airline and freight industry’s consumption of fuel.   

Kendall has also designated airlift as one of the three “cross-cutting” enabler mission areas that touch all of the Air Force’s activities—the other two being electronic warfare and munitions—and underlie all of his seven “operational imperatives.” Each enabler has been assigned an operational and acquisition co-leader to facilitate the development of capability roadmaps.

HASC Organizes with 17 New Members—Including a USAFA Grad

HASC Organizes with 17 New Members—Including a USAFA Grad

Feb. 2, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

A month after the new session of Congress began, the House Armed Services Committee formally organized Feb. 2, setting its subcommittee rosters and introducing the new members who will help oversee the Pentagon. 

In his first opening statement as chairman, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) focused on the Pacific, promising a hearing next week to “examine the threats we face from China and how best to prepare our military to deter and defeat them.” 

Rogers emphasized the committee’s oversight responsibilities, and his Republican majority is expected to aggressively question so-called “woke” Pentagon programs pursued by the Biden administration. 

With the President’s fiscal 2024 budget request expected to be released in March, Rogers pledged to cut Defense Department programs that don’t address future threats. “We’ll find a lot of savings at the Pentagon,” he said. But Rogers also said “modernizing our military will cost a lot of money,” and under his leadership “we cannot shy away from that investment.” 

Ranking member Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) “concurred” with all of Rogers’ opening remarks and emphasized the need to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia. 

How exactly all these priorities will play out in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act and budget will be the business of the next nine months or so. There is growing interest among some members of both major political parties in holding defense spending in check or even cutting it. But at the same time, growing concern about whether the U.S. military is funded and equipped to deter China or others from going to war with U.S. allies and partners.

tThe HASC will have 17 new members, including 11 Republicans and six Democrats, meaning nearly 30 percent of the committee is new to DOD oversight. 

Among those six new Democrats: freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), the fourth U.S. Air Force Academy graduate ever elected to Congress. Davis left the Air Force as a captain after eight years on Active-duty. He worked as a mortuary officer; coordinated operations for the VC-25A “Air Force One” at Joint Base Andrews, Md.; and served at an ROTC detachment in North Carolina. 

Two other former Airmen are already on the committee—Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is a retired brigadier general and ISR pilot with experience in the EC-130H and RC-135 and Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) served for four years at Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas.

Also new to the committee are two representatives whose districts include Air Force bases: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) represents Holloman Air Force Base and parts of Kirtland Air Force Base—as well as White Sands Missile Range and Los Alamos National Laboratory—and Rep. Terri A. Sewell (D-Ala.) has parts of Maxwell Air Force Base in her district.  

In addition to the new members, Democrats also named their ranking members for each of the seven subcommittees, including three new to leadership roles.  

On the Strategic Forces subcommittee, which oversees nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defense, and national security space programs, longtime Rep. Jim Cooper (Tenn.) has been succeeded by Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.). A retired Marine, Moulton briefly ran for president in 2019, during which he dismissed the need for a separate Space Force, instead calling for a separate military branch focused on cyber. He has also argued in favor of nuclear arms control, but against a “No First Use” policy. 

On the Military Personnel subcommittee, Rep. Jackie Speier (Calif.) will be succeeded by Rep. Andy Kim (N.J.), whose district includes Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst. Kim has co-sponsored legislation that would expand health care for National Guard members. 

On the Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems subcommittee, Rep. Jim Langevin (R.I.) will be succeeded by Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), whose district includes much of Silicon Valley  

Full list of subcommittee rosters 

Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation

  • Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.)—Chairman                  
  • Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)            
  • Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) 
  • Pat Fallon (R-Texas) 
  • Dale Strong (R-Ala.) 
  • Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas) 
  • Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) 
  • Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) 
  • Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) 
  • Ro Khanna (D-Calif.)—Ranking Member 
  • Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) 
  • Bill Keating (D-Mass.) 
  • Andy Kim (D-N.J.) 
  • Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) 
  • Jared Golden (D-Maine) 
  • Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) 
  • Chris Deluzio (D-Penn.) 

Intelligence and Special Operations

  • Jack Bergman (R-Mich.)—Chairman      
  • Austin Scott (R-Ga.) 
  • Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) 
  • Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) 
  • Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) 
  • Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) 
  • Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas) 
  • Cory Mills (R-Fla.) 
  • Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.)—Ranking Member 
  • Bill Keating (D-Mass.) 
  • Jason Crow (D-Colo.) 
  • Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) 
  • Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) 
  • Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) 
  • Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) 

Military Personnel

  • Jim Banks (R-Ind.)—Chairman               
  • Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)                            
  • Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)     
  • Jack Bergman (R-Mich.)                   
  • Michael Waltz (R-Fla.)   
  • Brad Finstad (R-Minn.)   
  • James Moylan (R-Guam) 
  • Mark Alford (R-Mo.) 
  • Cory Mills (R-Fla.) 
  • Andy Kim (D-N.J.)—Ranking Member                                                         
  • Chrissy Houlahan (D-Penn.) 
  • Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) 
  • Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) 
  • Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) 
  • Don Davis (D-N.C.) 
  • Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) 
  • Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) 

Readiness

  • Michael Waltz (R-Fla.)—Chairman       
  • Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) 
  • Austin Scott (R-Ga.)   
  • Mike Johnson (R-La.)   
  • Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.)     
  • Brad Finstad (R-Minn.)        
  • Dale Strong (R-Ala.) 
  • Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) 
  • James Moylan (R-Guam) 
  • John Garamendi (D-Calif.)—Ranking Member  
  • Jason Crow (D-Calif.) 
  • Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) 
  • Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) 
  • Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) 
  • Gabriel Vasquez (D-N.M.) 
  • Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) 
  • Don Davis (D-N.C.) 

Seapower and Projection Forces

  • Trent Kelly (R-Miss.)—Chairman         
  • Rob Wittman (R-Va.) 
  • Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) 
  • Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) 
  • Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) 
  • Mike Johnson (R-La.) 
  • Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) 
  • Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) 
  • Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) 
  • Mark Alford (R-Mo.) 
  • Joe Courtney (D-Conn.)—Ranking Member  
  • John Garamendi (D-Calif.) 
  • Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) 
  • Jared Golden (D-Maine) 
  • Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) 
  • Chris Deluzio (D-Penn.) 
  • Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) 

Strategic Forces

  • Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.)—Chairman    
  • Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) 
  • Mike Turner (R-Ohio) 
  • Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) 
  • Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) 
  • Don Bacon (R-Neb.) 
  • Jim Banks (R-Ind.) 
  • Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) 
  • Dale Strong (R-Ala.) 
  • Seth Moulton (D-Mass.)—Ranking Member  
  • John Garamendi (D-Calif.) 
  • Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) 
  • Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) 
  • Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) 
  • Chrissy Houlahan (D-Penn.) 
  • Gabriel Vasquez (D-N.M.) 

Tactical Air and Land Forces

  • Rob Wittman (R-Va.)—Chairman  
  • Mike Turner (R-Ohio) 
  • Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) 
  • Sam Graves (R-Mo.) 
  • Don Bacon (R-Neb.) 
  • Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) 
  • Pat Fallon (R-Texas) 
  • Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) 
  • Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) 
  • Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) 
  • Donald Norcross (D-N.J.)—Ranking Member  
  • Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) 
  • Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) 
  • Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) 
  • Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) 
  • Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) 
  • Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) 
  • Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) 
SASC Announces New Members, Air Force Vet Is Ranking Member

SASC Announces New Members, Air Force Vet Is Ranking Member

Feb. 1, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The Senate Armed Services Committee released its member roster for the 118th Congress on Feb. 1, naming a new ranking member and including three freshmen Senators.  

All of the newcomers are Republicans; Democrats return the same 13 Senators from the last Congress, led by chairman Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who has chaired the committee since 2021 and been its ranking Democrat since 2015. 

The new ranking member is Air Force veteran Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who succeeds Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) as the committee’s senior Republican. Wicker served on Active-Duty from 1976 to 1980 and then in the Reserve until 2003 as a judge advocate. He is the first Air Force vet to hold a leadership role on the committee since Barry Goldwater in 1987—fellow Airman Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) served on the committee for more than a decade and a half but always in support of Inhofe and the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

Wicker’s home state of Mississippi is brimming with military installations, including Columbus Air Force Base and Keesler Air Force Base. In the last Congress, he co-sponsored unsuccessful legislation seeking to limit planned retirements of T-1 trainers at Columbus. Wicker will lead a group of a dozen Republicans, one fewer than last Congress, reflecting Democrats’ new 51-49 majority in the chamber. 

Among those dozen lawmakers will be three new faces—Sens. Markwayne Mullin (Okla.), Ted Budd (N.C.), and Eric Schmitt (Mo.). Mullin was elected as Inhofe’s replacement, while both Budd and Schmitt are taking spots previously held by the other Senator for their states: Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Josh Hawley (Mo.), respectively. 

Mullin will represent Oklahoma’s large Air Force population: the state hosts Altus Air Force Base, Tinker Air Force Base, Vance Air Force Base, and Will Rogers Air National Guard Base. C-17s, KC-135s, E-3s, T-1s, T-6s, T-38s, F-16s, and MC-12s are all based in the state, and Will Rogers is slated to host the schoolhouse for the new Sky Warden aircraft. The service also relies on the Oklahoma City Air Logistics Complex to perform maintenance for dozens of kinds of aircraft. 

Budd represents a state with a heavy Army presence, but North Carolina is also home to Pope Field and Seymour Johnson Air Force Base. Schmitt, meanwhile, represents Whiteman Air Force Base and its B-2 bombers. 

In a press release, Tillis touted his work on the SASC, particularly on the personnel subcommittee. He is taking on a new assignment on the Senate Finance Committee. 

Also leaving the committee—without a replacement due to Republicans’ decreased numbers—is Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). Blackburn represented the Air Force’s Arnold Engineering Development Complex. 

The SASC release did not include details on the panel’s seven subcommittees, saying an announcement is coming in the “near future.” Tillis is the only subcommittee chair or ranking member from last Congress not to be on the committee this session. 

The full list of Senate Armed Services Committee members: 

  • Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) – Chairman 
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) 
  • Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) 
  • Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) 
  • Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) 
  • Tim Kaine (D-Va.) 
  • Angus King (I-Maine) 
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) 
  • Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) 
  • Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) 
  • Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) 
  • Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) 
  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.)  
  • Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) – Ranking Member 
  • Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) 
  • Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) 
  • Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) 
  • Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) 
  • Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) 
  • Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) 
  • Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) 
  • Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) 
  • Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) 
  • Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) 
  • Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) 
How to Talk About a Potential War with China

How to Talk About a Potential War with China

Feb. 1, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Air Mobility Command boss Gen. Mike Minihan generated international headlines when a memo to his Airmen in which he suggested the U.S. “will fight in 2025” with China leaked to the media. In the days that followed, national security experts and even Airmen themselves have split on the message, with some praising Minihan for his plain talk and others worrying that he needlessly turned up tensions with his rhetoric.

Former National Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien wrote on Twitter that Minihan’s memo “demonstrates solidarity with the men & women he leads by telling them the truth that all of us at the senior level know but few are willing to utter. He should be commended.” 

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, praised Minihan in a LinkedIn post, saying he “should be commended for the clarity in which he delivers his messages, sense of urgency, and speaking as a warfighter—not a bureaucrat, politico, or academic.” 

In an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine, Deptula deemed Minihan’s memo “wholly appropriate,” and a necessary reminder for AMC Airmen, who are responsible for all the Air Force’s cargo and refueling missions. 

“Air Mobility Command is a combat-oriented command,” Deptula said. “Its day-to-day airlift missions often appear more like a commercial airline mission than an organization in the thick of flying and fighting. But the point that Minahan was making is the violence of combat comes quickly. And he wants his crews to be thinking about that and ready to support delivering devastating consequences to the enemy in a very hostile environment.” 

AMC is not immune to danger, he said citing the noncombatant evacuation out of Afghanistan in August 2021 that involved hundreds of C-17 flights in and out of hostile territory, and the Vietnam War, when the Air Force lost more than 100 mobility aircraft.  

Minihan was rightly “trying to instill this perspective on his Airmen, that they need to be thinking about what’s necessary to succeed in combat against our pacing threat and raise that awareness that it’s not business as usual in that this possibility could come sooner rather than later.” 

Notably, Minihan’s comments are consistent with those of others who have sounded alarm over China, ranging from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael M. Gilday, who said in October the U.S. should prepare to fight in 2022 or 2023. In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predicted China might take military action against Taiwan by 2027—a timeline some have since dubbed “the Davidson window.” 

Minihan was “doing what we pay general officers to do,” Deptula said—that is, “to motivate and prepare their forces, and to get them thinking about the potential threats that we face.” 

Some lawmakers have also lauded the memo, praising Minihan for characterizing the situation with China in stark terms. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee; Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee and the chair of a new House Select Committee focused on competition with China; and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, all supported the general.

Predictably, however, others have been critical. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking member of the HASC, said on TV that he worries “when anyone starts talking about war with China being inevitable.” Generals, he added, “need to be very cautious about saying we’re going to war.” 

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, echoed that concern. “We’re awfully cavalier about this idea that we might fight China, right?” said O’Hanlon, a member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board, in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine. “We’re talking about World War III. …That’s a not a way we can afford to think, because if this war happens, we’ve already lost.” 

Generals sometimes do get called out for their word choices, with retired Marine Corps Gen. Jim Mattis having drawn particular criticism in the past. In this case, O’Hanlon said, China’s growing nuclear arsenal and military might calls for increased “strategic sophistication.” 

“It was one thing when Jim Mattis said it about the Taliban,” O’Hanlon said. They and al-Qaida “did not have nuclear weapons and did not pose existential threats to the United States and potentially could be defeated or at least contained on a battlefield. It’s entirely something else to say this about the world’s number one rising power with several hundred nuclear weapons and a central place in the entire world economy.” 

When officers become generals, they “are no longer just technical facilitators of the application of lethal military power—that’s no longer their only job,” O’Hanlon said. Though Minihan’s memo was intended for an internal audience of Airmen, O’Hanlon said its public impact after its leak shows why generals should exercise caution when crafting broad messages. 

“Damage has been done, because the Chinese have read it and probably taken it as a window into our thinking,” O’Hanlon said. “And to the extent they believe that the United States has settled on a paradigm of the inevitability of a U.S.-China war, that could affect their crisis decision making and make them more inclined to escalate if they think the war is going to sort of happen anyway.” 

Others commenting on social media suggested the AMC commander was saber-rattling. Replying to Deptula’s LinkedIn post, Air National Guard Brig. Gen. Walt L. Moddison cited poor performance by U.S. forces in past war games as reason to tone down such comments. Moddison declined an interview request, saying he was speaking for himself and not his organization. 

Elsewhere on popular unofficial social media sites, Airmen have responded to Minihan’s memo with a mixture of debate and memes, with some arguing that the focus on a near-term war with China takes attention away from problems such as retention and maintenance on aging fleets. 

But Gallagher, a retired Marine Corps intelligence officer, said recent world events show the pressing nature of preparing for a fight with China.

“If we’ve learned anything from Ukraine, it’s that we need to take our adversaries at their word when they
threaten their neighbors and put hard power in their way before it’s too late,” Gallagher said in a statement. “General Minihan should be commended for directing his Airmen to take the threat seriously and preparing with the urgency that the situation demands.”