Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say

Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say

May 1, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The risk of war with China is increasing, experts said May 1. The most likely cause: a U.S.-Chinese conflagration in the Taiwan Strait that could spiral out of control.

“The prospects for war are growing,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the Trans-Pacific program of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. said during a Brookings Institution webinar.

“I don’t think it would start with a Taiwanese declaration of independence,” she said, because the Taiwanese electorate has shown little enthusiasm for such a declaration, knowing that China would probably take military action in response. There’s equally little appetite to sign up for Beijing’s so-called one nation, two systems concept, especially after the People’s Republic stridently reneged on such a promise in Hong Kong.

Rather, Glaser argued, the Strait is “really the only potential trigger of a major war between the United States and China.”

“We have never seen two nuclear powers go to war,” she said, adding she had little confidence “escalation could be controlled, so this is the most worrisome scenario.” Glaser was referring to encounters between U.S. and Chinese aircraft and warships in the South China Sea and other locations in recent months, particularly after the visit of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to Taipei.

Glaser, along with Ryan Haas and Richard Bush of Brookings, were rolling out a new book, “U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis?”

Glaser said the U.S. must have an informed debate on what is necessary to prevent war with China—something she and her co-panelists thought was possible.

Haas said China would prefer unification Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province, to be as bloodless as possible. A war could devastate the Taiwanese economy—especially in the vital semiconductor industry.

“From Beijing’s perspective, their preference would be to try to isolate Taiwan as an issue between Taiwan and China and to just deal with it on their own,” and eventually “impose their will on the people of Taiwan,” he said.  

The U.S. has a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding military intervention in a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a position Haas argued the U.S. should maintain. The U.S. argues China should not unilaterally upend the status quo, a policy supported by many Taiwanese.

“What would the United States gain by foreclosing a potential solution to cross-strait differences and what costs or risks would we incur in the process?” Haas said. “The people of Taiwan have no enthusiasm for near-term unification. [They] also are very pragmatic and have shown through repeated elections that they also don’t have a lot of appetite for declarations of independence.”

Haas said the U.S. shouldn’t place Taiwan’s future in America’s hands.

“The goal of US policy and strategy isn’t to solve the Taiwan problem,” he said. “The people of Taiwan, mainland China, they’re not looking for the United States to play a mediating role.” 

“This is an artifact of an unfinished Civil War,” Haas added. “The purpose of American strategy and policy is to keep a path open for a resolution to be found by the protagonist themselves.” That could take years, decades, or centuries, he said.

Beijing doesn’t like “this being an annex of US-China competition,” Haas added. “They really don’t like Taiwan being embedded into a broader regional or global framework, because that means that others around the world have a stake in what happens in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. He praised the Biden Administration, saying it’s done “a commendable job” of helping to turn Taiwan into an issue in which countries around the globe have a stake in preserving peace.

China seems willing to stick with its influence campaign to try to win over the Taiwanese electorate, the panelists said, and likely will if the U.S. does not insist on Taiwan becoming an independent country—counter to current U.S. policy. If the U.S. declares otherwise, China would view that as a bid to control Taiwan as a strategic outpost in China’s front yard, and this would almost certainly be met with a military response.

So far, President Biden’s repeated pledge that the U.S. would aid Taiwan if it was invaded has not reassured Taiwan and only irritated Beijing, the authors said.  

Glaser noted that the U.S. needs to take a whole-of-government approach to the issue, and not simply a military one. Beijing, she noted, has been waging an information and cyber war, trying to diminish Taiwanese confidence in their own government, and undermining faith in the U.S.

Beijing’s goal is to get the Taiwanese electorate to be accepting of unification as inevitable and a more acceptable option than war, and a strong percentage seem to be swayed by this message, she said.

Asked if reassuring China that the U.S. has no designs on Taiwan as a pro-American outpost and possible military base would be a successful approach, Haas answered that “reassurance is only useful for a party that wants to be reassured, and I think that Beijing finds it more convenient to not accept our expressions of restraint and prefer to just call us liars.”

Haas told the audience that “Taiwan has a say in this. And if, in 2024, they were to elect a president who was more to Beijing’s liking … a lot of emphasis on military issues would disappear, because we would be in a zone of more cooperation than hostility.” However, there’s little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,” Glaser said.

Cope Thunder Exercise Is Back in Philippines After 33 Years

Cope Thunder Exercise Is Back in Philippines After 33 Years

May 1, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. and Philippines air forces are reviving a combat training exercise after more than 30 years as both nations grapple with China’s growing military might. From May 1-12, American fighters will practice tactics with the Philippine air force in exercise Cope Thunder.

The drills began the same day as Philippines president Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met with President Joe Biden at the White House on the increasingly close defense partnership between the U.S. and the Philippines.

In less than a year since Marcos took office, the two sides have agreed to expand U.S. basing access to four new sites in the Philippines; the U.S. has sent fifth-generation fighters to visit; and the two collaborated on Balikatan, a massive exercise featuring more than 17,000 U.S. and Philippine personnel, along with 100 from Australia.

“I think the advancement of this alliance and this bilateral relationship has really been stunning,” said National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby in a May 1 media briefing.

Cope Thunder brings back an exercise that was an annual event at Clark Air Base in the Philippines since the mid-1970s, but after the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo devastated the airbase on the northern Philippine island of Luzon in 1991, the exercise was suspended. Shortly after, the U.S. closed the base.

Designed to mimic combat missions, Cope Thunder was moved to Alaska as a northern version of Red Flag, the Air Force’s premier training exercise. But now Cope Thunder is back—albeit in a more limited form. This year’s Cope Thunder includes some 160 Airmen and 12 F-16 fighters from the 35th Fighter Wing at Misawa Air Base, Japan, who will exercise with the Philippine Air Force, according to Pacific Air Forces (PACAF). Clark was eventually reopened as a Philippine base, and the 2023 version of Cope Thunder will occur there.

“Various mobility aircraft will assist with transport and logistics in support of the exercise but are not scheduled to participate in the exercise itself,” a spokesperson for Pacific Air Forces told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “The fighters will participate in various joint operations to exercise combined fighter operations; practice interoperability with tactical units; and bolster the combat capability of participating nations.”

The U.S. and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty—and a mutual security concern in China.

“On a military level, there’s no doubt that Cope Thunder will send a clear signal that the Philippines will be building up an air force for their own air defense,” said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific security expert at the Hudson Institute. The U.S. said last month it was “in focused discussions” with the Philippines about selling it F-16s to fill a multirole fighter requirement. The Philippine Air Force’s primary fighter is the South Korean-made FA-50, originally designed as a trainer.

The Biden administration announced this week it is also transferring three C-130s to the Philippines.

China has long-running territorial disputes with the Philippines over islands in the South China Sea. Working with the U.S. on basing access, the Philippines is reasserting its independence as well as its close relationship with Washington. For the U.S., that regional partnership also bolsters U.S. forces’ ability to project power near Taiwan.

Shortly before Marcos met with Biden, the U.S. called out China for a run-in in which the Chinese coast guard harassed Philippine vessels. The U.S. condemned China’s actions and said it would provide the Philippines with more naval assets.

“What we’ve seen recently is a series of continuing provocative acts on the part of China testing and probing into the Philippines’ waters, in areas of deep concern to the Philippines,” a senior administration official told reporters April 30. “They’re looking for reassurance and a strong desire to maintain peace and stability in this complex period.”

“They’re a big growing economy,” Cronin said. “They’re an ally. We need to help them get a proper air force.”

Administration officials said the visit underscored their commitment to a mutually beneficial defense arrangement—as well as broader bilateral cooperation—not just more access for the U.S. military. Some experts said Beijing’s aggressive posture in the region pushed Manilla towards the U.S.

“In some ways, this is getting easier because of China’s own actions,” said Zack Cooper, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “The Filipinos tried reaching out to China over the last five years and were hoping that it would result in China taking a different approach. But the Chinese kept the pressure up. I think that has convinced a lot of people in Manila that the only realistic option is to try and work with the United States to protect Philippine interests.”

What Happens to the Air Force’s Oldest F-22s if Congress OKs Their Retirement?  

What Happens to the Air Force’s Oldest F-22s if Congress OKs Their Retirement?  

April 28, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

If Congress agrees with the Air Force’s request to retire 32 Block 20 F-22s as part of its fiscal 2024 budget, the aircraft will be used as trainers a while longer, then stored for an undetermined period at the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base’s Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) “Boneyard” in Arizona, Air Combat Command told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Eventually, they’ll be scrapped by Air Force personnel and contractors experienced in stealth materials disposal.

“Specific plans for disposition are being developed,” an ACC spokesperson said.

“However, if Congress approves the divestment there are several possibilities for the retired aircraft, including long-term storage at the AMARG,” the spokesperson said. “Until that final divestment decision is made, Air Combat Command is bringing the aircraft to Joint Base Langley-Eustis [Va.] where they will continue executing the F-22 formal training mission.”

The service expects some of the aircraft will make their way to museums or possibly as “gate guards” mounted for display, but those decisions have yet to be made. The Air Force did not say whether it could use some of the aircraft as maintenance trainers, although it has used some wrecked aircraft for this purpose in the past.

The Air Force is storing its stealthy F-117 attack fighters in the hangars from which they originally operated at Tonopah Test Range, Nev., but ACC said the F-22s will not require storage in a climate-controlled facility and will be stored at AMARG “using preservation processes very similar to legacy aircraft.”

Those processes usually involve removing any explosive devices, such as ejection seat motors; running a preservative oil through fluid lines; closing off openings so animals and birds don’t nest in the aircraft; and covering the cockpit, intakes and exhaust with a spray-on latex preservative to diminish the effects of sun and heat.

The AMARG has previously explored the construction of climate-controlled facilities to store fifth-generation aircraft, both to preserve their stealth materials and add extra protection—Davis-Monthan, despite its fences and active fence line security, has experienced intrusions and theft of items from its sprawling open-air storage facilities.    

If the F-22s are scrapped, it would be the first time a significant number of stealth aircraft have gone through that process. The issue is sensitive as the Air Force has endured lawsuits from contractors and service personnel who were sickened when they were involved in or close to the burning of toxic stealth materials at USAF’s classified Groom Lake facilities and other locations.

The process for the F-22s will also set a precedent for the B-2 bomber when that aircraft retires circa 2030, and the rest of the F-22 fleet, also retiring around that year.   

The Air Force proposed retiring the training F-22s in its fiscal year 2024 budget request because they no longer accurately represent the frontline Block 35, which is the combat-coded and -configured version of the fighter. Rather, they are for training purposes only, and service officials have said they are so dissimilar from the frontline version that they produce “negative training,” meaning students have to unlearn bad habits acquired in the unimproved aircraft.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said it would cost upwards of $50 million per airplane to upgrade the Block 20s to Block 35 configuration, and much more to operate them and keep them common to the rest of the fleet before the F-22 retires. The Air Force has said that it will apply all of the savings reaped from retiring the aircraft to developing the F-22’s successor, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) family of systems.

The divestitures are meant to “focus on the future fight” and NGAD, the Air Combat Command spokesperson said.

The spokesperson said ACC hasn’t decided yet what kind of storage category will be applied to the F-22s.  The AMARG has traditionally broken up the aircraft it stores into roughly four categories:

  • Type 1000: The aircraft will be stored but not cannibalized for parts, on the chance that they may someday be recalled to service. However, they are not periodically powered up to run their systems.
  • Type 2000: Yhe aircraft are sources for parts cannibalization, but not destroyed in the process, and potentially restorable to duty.
  • Type 3000: Aircraft in “temporary” storage, fully expected to return to flying status and run at least every 30 days. These aircraft may not even leave the runway apron. “Flyable storage,” a related category, calls for longer-term storage, with representative aircraft powered up and flown periodically, mostly to keep a small cadre of pilots proficient in their operation. The F-117 is in “flyable storage,” but some have been recalled to duty to act as stealthy adversaries in USAF wargames and test scenarios.  
  • Type 4000: Harvested for all usable parts, then scrapped for their valuable materials, such as titanium.

ACC said the F-22 program office requested funds in its Weapon System Sustainment accounts under “Centralized Asset Management” to “induct the F-22s into long-term storage at AMARG.” These funding requests are not included in USAF’s budget justification books, and ACC could not say how much funding has been requested for this purpose.

Plans are in place, the command said, to “train and equip AMARG personnel to successfully preserve and store” the retired F-22s.  

“Demilitarization” of the aircraft—removing hazardous materials, explosives, gases, etc.—“and disposal will be a joint effort between AMARG and authorized fifth-generation contractor disposal facilities with experience in handling aircraft hazardous materials,” the ACC spokesperson said.

Congress ordered the Air Force to keep the F-117 fleet in “flyable storage” in case they are ever needed in wartime. Other aircraft that have been placed in Type 2000 storage have been returned to service as target drones as many as 20 years after being retired.

Russia Continues Dangerous Flights in Syria, Risking ‘International Incident’

Russia Continues Dangerous Flights in Syria, Risking ‘International Incident’

April 28, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

Russian aircraft have flown near U.S. forces in Syria almost two dozen times over the past week, as Russian warplanes continue their aggressive maneuvers in the country, according to American officials. 

Since March 1, Russian warplanes have violated airspace in Syria that is supposed to be controlled by the U.S. 85 times and conducted 26 armed overflights of U.S. positions, Air Forces Central spokeswoman Capt. Lauren T. Linscott told Air & Space Forces Magazine on April 28.

That marks an uptick of 22 incidents since Air Forces Central began to raise the alarm on April 19 when it counted 63 violations. The number of armed overflights remains unchanged. At times, Russian warplanes have come with 500 feet of U.S. Air Force aircraft.

The Russians are not the only problem. The U.S. has also faced deadly attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups on U.S. facilities in eastern Syria, the most recent of which occurred April 10. 

On March 23, a U.S. contractor was killed in Hasakah, Syria in a drone attack. The contractor was a maintainer working on vehicles used by Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTACs) supporting the Air Force operations, a U.S. official disclosed. 

Two U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles responded by launching strikes on facilities linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian-backed forces then launched their own response with more aerial attacks.

The Iranian and Russian threats are increasingly intertwined, a U.S. official said. Iran is providing drones for Russia to use against Ukraine. In turn, Iranian officials said they have been promised Russian fighter jets. U.S. commanders in the region, including Air Forces Central commander Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, have expressed concern about the growing alignment of the two sides.

At the time of the deadly attack, the Air Force was struggling to fill out its capacity requirements of two and a half squadrons. The U.S. has since rushed combat power to the region, accelerating the planned deployment of A-10s in late March, just a few days after the attack. The U.S. also deployed the USS Florida Ohio-class cruise missile submarine to CENTCOM and extended the deployment of the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group in the Mediterranean Sea. A U.S. official said those moves were intended to signal to the groups not to strike American personnel any further.

Additionally, a Russian surface-to-air missile from an SA-22 system missed a U.S. MQ-9 in a Nov. 27 incident. The U.S. does not know the intent of Russian forces that fired the missile, according to American officials. The episode is the only publicly disclosed incident of a Russian surface-to-air site firing at a U.S. aircraft in Syria.

“It is unclear if Russian forces were trying to hit the MQ-9,” U.S. Central Command spokesman Col. Joe Buccino told Air & Space Forces Magazine. Buccino said there have been no similar incidents since.

“We recognize that this type of activity by Russia is very inappropriate,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said April 27. “It also is very dangerous. But we’re not seeking to get into a conflict with Russia, nor are we looking to divert attention from why it is that we’re there.”

The U.S. is in Syria to fight ISIS, assisting local partner forces and conducting raids against the militant group. American has around 900 troops in the country. Russia is supporting the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. Ryder declined to say whether the Pentagon believed the recent provocative actions were ordered by Moscow.

Air Forces Central has called the incidents “unsafe and unprofessional,” which risks putting U.S. Airmen and troops at risk. U.S. officials said they believe American forces will conduct themselves professionally and the Air Force follows proper protocols.

U.S. officials say it is unclear exactly what was motivating the Russian pilots but have expressed concern that they may be trying to provoke an incident. 

“They’re trying to elicit a reaction,” a U.S. official said. “It’s possible they’re trying to engender an international incident.”

Wisconsin Guard Wing Accepts First 3 F-35s

Wisconsin Guard Wing Accepts First 3 F-35s

April 28, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

A second Air National Guard unit has its first F-35s, as three of the fifth-generation fighters arrived at Truax Field, Wisc., on April 25. 

The Wisconsin Air National Guard’s 115th Fighter Wing has been working toward the F-35 for years now—Truax Field was selected as one of two preferred locations for the fighter back in 2017, and an official basing decision came three years later in April 2020. The wing’s final F-16 left the base in October 2022. 

“It’s with great joy and obligation that we accept this challenge today of becoming the second Air National Guard fighter wing with the F-35,” Col. Bart Van Roo, the wing commander, said at a ceremony celebrating the F-35s’ arrival. “As we take on this new challenge, with so much national and international importance, we look forward to working with you all to continue to maximize what we bring to our communities for decades to come.” 

Eventually, the 115th Fighter Wing will get 18 F-35As, three fewer than its 21 F-16s. 

The Vermont Air National Guard’s 158th Fighter Wing was the first Guard unit to receive the F-35 back in September 2019.  

It won’t take another three years for another ANG unit to get the aircraft—Alabama’s 187th Fighter Wing  is scheduled to start receiving F-35s in December. In fact, just a few days before the Wisconsin ANG welcomed its new planes, the Alabama Guard said farewell to the last of its F-16s in a ceremony at Dannelly Field. 

“On this bittersweet and exciting day, we are here gathered together as a family again, for today is a family reunion,” Col. Brian Vaughn, 158th Fighter Wing commander, said at the April 21 ceremony. “And while we’re here to honor this beautiful airplane, that we’ve had for 35 years, that I’ve had the privilege of flying for 25 years, while we love that machine, that’s what it is. It’s a machine. It’s a piece of equipment.” 

Still more Guard units will follow—Jacksonville Air National Guard Base, Fla., was selected to get the F-35 in 2020 and fighters are slated to be delivered in 2024. Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass., was also selected as a preferred location for an F-35A squadron this month. 

On the Active-Duty side, Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., is slated to start receiving F-35s in September 2023. 

F-35 deliveries from manufacturer Lockheed Martin resumed in March after a three-month pause in the wake of a Dec. 14, 2022 F-35B crash and a subsequent investigation into “harmonic resonance” issues with the fighter’s F135 engine.  

18 KC-135s Line Up at MacDill, as USAF’s Surge in Elephant Walks Continues

18 KC-135s Line Up at MacDill, as USAF’s Surge in Elephant Walks Continues

April 28, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Spread out over more than half a mile, 18 KC-135 Stratotankers lined up on the runway at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., on April 26—the sixth Air Force elephant nationwide in the past six weeks. 

The event was part of MacDill’s Operation Violent Storm, an exercise designed to force units to work together to rapidly mobilize the fleet. More than 700 Airmen contributed to ready the KC-135s in less than six hours. 

“What Operation Violent Storm showcases is our ability to, in rapid succession, provide airpower for America,” said Col. Adam Bingham, 6th Air Refueling Wing commander, in a statement. “We are able to put booms in the air that fuel America’s strategic fighters and bombers who will ultimately be delivering hope and projecting violence at a time that America really needs it.” 

The operation was the 6th Air Refueling Wing’s first large-scale elephant walk since 2016, according to a release. Airmen from the 927th Air Refueling Wing, the 6th ARW’s Reserve associate unit, also participated, as did U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawks assigned to the 5th Battalion. 

The MacDill event is the latest in a surge of “elephant walks” across the Air Force in recent weeks, all at different bases: 

Violent Storm was among the largest KC-135 elephant walks in memory—20 Stratotankers took off from Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash., in September 2021, while other tanker power displays are typically smaller, as with 12 at RAF Mildenhall and 14 at McConnell Air Force Base. 

USAF Analysis: China Hopes The US Can’t Afford Enough B-21s to Make A Difference

USAF Analysis: China Hopes The US Can’t Afford Enough B-21s to Make A Difference

April 28, 2023 | By David Roza

In the months following the reveal of Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider in December, several publications affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party or its People’s Liberation Army published articles downplaying the aircraft’s viability, saying the U.S. cannot afford enough of the bombers to make a difference in a possible conflict with China. 

And while that view may not represent a consensus within the PLA, it does give U.S. policymakers a hint of how China views one of the cornerstones of future U.S. airpower.

“We could certainly change their calculations and force the optimists to have to come up with a better argument if we don’t meet their expectations and produce the B-21 in large numbers,” Derek Solen, a senior researcher for Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “They would really have to sit down and assess the B-21’s capabilities and whether they can counter it.”

In a recent study for CASI, Solen analyzed media reactions within China to the B-21’s unveiling. One of the more dismissive analyses appeared in the global military section of Liberation Army News, which Solen described as “the mouthpiece” of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. 

The writers argued the B-21 may be “strategic blackmail,” meaning the bomber’s main purpose is to force opponents to devote inordinate resources toward developing countermeasures for it. The writers claimed that the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber was also intended to “drain the Soviet Union’s military and economic strength.”

Indeed, as the B-2 approached production in the late 1980s, the aircraft was expected to create dilemmas for Soviet military planners, though Solen said that was likely a secondary effect of the B-2’s design rather than its primary purpose.

“How will the Soviets respond to the U.S. stealth challenge?” wrote one observer in the 1989 edition of the journal International Security. “Will the Soviets divert substantial resources to air defense to counter stealthy air vehicles?”

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Congress reduced the purchase of the B-2 from 132 aircraft to 75 to just 21. Three decades later, the B-21 is expected to cost about $660 million each, and Air Force officials hope to buy 100 copies. The Liberation Army News writers predicted the B-21 program would not achieve economies of scale, due to its “astonishing” total cost—and therefore it would be difficult to achieve any “strategic effect.”

Solen found other publications made similar assessments. An article published in the military weekly section of China Youth Daily said the U.S. Air Force may not have the budget to afford many B-21s and would ultimately “walk in the trail of the B-2.” The writers added that the B-21 would also have difficulty “when facing a great power possessing a relatively perfect counter-stealth sensor network and air defense system … without being detected and intercepted.” 

A third publication, Chinese National Defense News, wrote that the B-21’s stealth capabilities are not advanced enough to infiltrate modern radar systems and the U.S. Air Force would not be able to afford enough of them.

A fourth publication did differ from the other three in taking a more cautious position. The science and technology section of Chinese National Defense News tends to eschew “political messages in order to introduce foreign technological advances,” Solen wrote.

The author, Xin Qizhi, wrote that the B-21’s main advantage over the B-2 is that the Air Force can afford more of them, and Xin urged readers not to treat the threat lightly.

“Overall, all the authors besides Xin expressed doubt that enough B-21 bombers will be acquired to compensate for their expected losses due to advances in radar,” Solen wrote. “The question that this ostensible difference raises is which side represents the prevalent opinion in the PLA.”

B21
The unveiling of the new B-21 bomber was staged to keep many of its innovations under wraps, but more than 34 years of technological advances since the B-2’s 1988 rollout were clearly in evidence.

Critical Self Assessments 

The Chinese Communist Party does not tolerate free speech, so even if the B-21 worried PLA officials, would non-Chinese researchers be able to access that information? They might be able to: RAND senior international defense researcher Mark Cozad said that, like most professional militaries, the PLA conducts critical self-assessments that can be found in academic military publications or technical journals.

“There is a lot you can find out, at least in terms of what they think about themselves,” said Cozad, who was the lead author on a RAND report published earlier this year about Chinese perspectives on the military balance between the U.S. and PLA. “And I think in most respects, they’re very realistic. They definitely don’t have a hard time criticizing themselves.”

Just like in U.S. military journals, those publications may not include sensitive details on platforms or capabilities. In the PLA, they also tend to focus on operational concepts and steer clear of broader defense policy issues that are decided by high-level party leadership. But they do analyze lingering issues affecting the PLA and options for what to do about them.

“These are the things that the PLA is telling themselves about themselves,” Cozad explained. “You’ll see the discussion of the problem, you’ll see proposed policies or programs, and you’ll see how those things evolve over time.”

Those nuanced discussions may not appear in publications like Liberation Army News, which tend to produce propaganda, Cozad said. Still, even propaganda can provide helpful information. 

“Just because it’s crafted doesn’t mean that the people who are crafting it don’t believe what they are saying,” Solen said. “And just because someone like Xin, who’s sounding a different note, is saying the thing that we kind of want to hear doesn’t mean that he’s a truth-teller.”

Indeed, American airpower policy experts are also arguing the Air Force needs to up its proposed production rate of B-21s to provide the long-range power projection necessary to deter China.

Doubling the bomber’s production rates and reducing unit costs “would require difficult force structure trades” if the Air Force budget remains static, wrote Dr. Christopher J. Bowie, non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, in a report published March 10.

“The Air Force needs to field more long-range bombers, which appear to offer significantly greater utility and reduced basing vulnerability compared to short-range fighters,” Bowie wrote, arguing for a 3:1 fighter-bomber ratio similar to those seen in the 1950s and 1960s, as opposed to the 15:1 ratio that exists today. Such a shift would require retiring legacy fighters more quickly, a task the Air Force has struggled with in the past.

“If the United States continues on its current course, it could end up with a force ill-suited to the challenges posed by China,” Bowie warned.

‘Let’s Exploit That’

Despite optimistic propaganda, PLA planners may take a pessimistic view of the B-21 simply because that is the nature of many military professionals.

“In the military, more often than not, people are worst-case thinkers,” Solen said. “If America is advertising a bomber with these capabilities, the prudent thing to do is assume that it’s all true.”

And if it is true, then the Air Force can give the PLA headaches by buying a large number of B-21s, as well as maintaining the service’s other advantages over the PLA.

“You have to continue to innovate, because these guys are very serious about improving their military capabilities,” Solen said. “If the stated capabilities of the B-21 are the case, then it’s an incredible platform. Let’s not throw that away. Let’s exploit that to its fullest.”

And in the meantime, more analysis like Solen’s could give planners a better sense of what PLA officials worry about in regards to the U.S. military.

“More of that work is really needed,” Cozad said. “What I think would be helpful for a lot of planners is to understand how the adversary looks at your weapons system, whether it’s correct or not.”

If the adversary’s perception is correct, it gives planners a realistic sense of what they might expect in terms of countermeasures. If it’s not, it still could provide helpful information as the military continues to learn more about China after focusing on counterinsurgency conflicts the past 20 years.

“From a bureaucratic, big government, national security complex perspective, we’ve spent a relatively limited amount of time thinking about China,” Cozad said. “You’re learning a new target in essence: going back to the basics, looking at the numbers, the organizations, the people, the general history, and I don’t think it is always the first thing that comes to mind to study how people think about themselves, how do they think about us? … Eventually this will become a much more mature effort.”

Department of the Air Force Saw Dramatic Rise in Sexual Assault Reports in 2022

Department of the Air Force Saw Dramatic Rise in Sexual Assault Reports in 2022

April 27, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force and the Space Force had a significant increase in reports of sexual assault last year, according to figures released April 27.

For fiscal 2022, the Department of the Air Force had the largest annual increase in the history of its Sexual Assault Prevention and Response (SAPR) program, which was created more than a decade ago to tackle the chronic issue of sexual assault and harassment in the military.

“Reports increased by 13 percent in FY 2022, the highest recorded value in the history of the DAF SAPR program,” Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall wrote in a memo to DOD leadership.

Overall, reports of sexual assault were up about 1 percent across the military—making the DAF an outlier. Air Force and Space Force numbers are counted together as a military department, unlike the other services.

“These increases in reporting demonstrate that while survivors are more willing to come forward, too many incidents are still occurring,” Kendall wrote. “This is unacceptable.”

Kendall’s letter was released as part of the Fiscal Year 2022 Department of Defense Annual Report on Sexual Assault in the Military.

According to the DOD, for every 1,000 Airmen and Guardians, 5.4 individuals reported a sexual assault in fiscal 2022, up from 4.6 in 2021, and 2.9 a decade ago. Reporting standards have varied over the years, however, and the services have sought to make sexual assault easier to report by decreasing stigma and adverse actions against those who report incidents.

Across the military, the vast majority of victims are women—79 percent. Most of the investigation subjects are male—80 percent.

The congressionally-required report contains reporting data, military justice case outcomes, and updates on the DOD’s efforts to prevent and respond to sexual assault. It does not examine the prevalence of sexual assault in the military, which the DOD “assesses via scientific survey and allows the Department to better understand the full scope of the problem.”

The Air Force’s increase is the highest in percentage among the services. In terms of total numbers, DOD recorded 1,928 reports of sexual assault in the Air Force in fiscal 2022. There were 329 investigations that were considered for possible action by a commander, and 218 were deemed as having evidence to support commander action, including 70 that led to the initiation of sexual assault-related court-martial charges, according to DOD data. (There were three additional “non-sexual assault” court-martial cases stemming from reports.)

Some victims make a restricted report—such as to victim advocates, sexual assault response coordinators, or healthcare providers—to enable confidential access to care and services.

“These reports are not referred for investigation and do not involve review by command authorities,” the Department of Defense notes in its report. “Given the desire for confidentiality, the victim is not asked to provide extensive details about the sexual assault.” Out of 1,928 reports, the Air Force had 864 that were restricted.

In 2022, the Department of Air Force changed its policies to make coming forward easier, including allowing for convalescent leave for Airmen and Guardians who report sexual assault and a new Safe-to-Report policy for service members or civilian workers to lessen fears of retaliation or negative impacts on their careers.

“The DAF aims to close the gap between prevalence and reporting while simultaneously working to decease prevalence of sexual violence,” Kendall wrote.

Overall, the DOD is relying more on nonjudicial punishments, though some advocates and lawmakers have pushed to hand over the cases to an independent office.

“That change was largely due to the perception that when a military commander makes these prosecution decisions, that they are not expert attorneys in these cases,” Dr. Nate Galbreath, deputy director of the Sexual Assault and Prevention and Response Office, told reporters.

Without an independent office, the DOD says it is working to improve its current team.

“The Department will also continue its efforts to professionalize the sexual assault response workforce, hire a dedicated integrated prevention workforce, and further assess the prevalence of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the force,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

Air Force Will Look at CV-22, New Army Helicopter for Long-Range Combat Search and Rescue

Air Force Will Look at CV-22, New Army Helicopter for Long-Range Combat Search and Rescue

April 27, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force will consider the Army’s recently-selected Bell V-280 Valor tiltrotor aircraft as a possible solution to its long-range combat rescue helicopter needs—but the service will also look into using CV-22s and other new aircraft, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told the House Armed Services Committee on April 27.

Brown, testifying on the fiscal 2024 budget request, was asked if the Air Force, which has purchased all the CV-22 Ospreys it plans to buy, would consider buying more to use for combat rescue in the Indo-Pacific, where long ranges challenge the new HH-60W Jolly Green IIs. The Air Force has cut its planned buy of HH-60Ws from 108 to 85 because they can only meet requirements in the European and Middle East theaters, USAF officials have said.

“I don’t see us actually going to additional CV-22s or opening back [up]” production, Brown said. “Once you shut down the production line, it’s very expensive to start back up. And oh, by the way, it’s technology that’s somewhat dated.”

The prototype joint-service V-22 rolled out in 1985 but the Marine Corps MV-22 did not enter service until 2007, having endured a lengthy and problematic development program. The Air Force declared the CV-22 variant operational in 2009. The Navy declared initial operational capability with its own unique variant of the Osprey, called the CMV-22, in February. The variant has been adapted to meet the Navy’s need for ship-to-shore logistics, replacing the venerable C-2 Greyhound.

Brown said the Air Force would evaluate the V-280, which won the Army’s Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) competition, and vehicles from “other industry partners…[who are] actually going down this path as well.”

Brown did not specify those other options, but the Sikorsky-Boeing Defiant co-axial helicopter which lost the FLRAA, is available, and leaders such as Air Combat Command chief Gen. Mark Kelly have suggested an outgrowth of the service’s Agility Prime “flying car” technology as a possible fix.

In the interim, Brown suggested the CV-22 could be a solution for long-range combat rescue, as well as a resupply aircraft in the service’s new Agile Combat Employment concept, which will distribute small groups of aircraft and Airmen to remote or austere locations from central “hubs.”

“These are the kinds of things we’re looking at as an Air Force, not only for what the CV-22 is able to do for … hostage rescue but also for personnel recovery and other aspects of logistics in the Indo-Pacific,” Brown said.

Air Combat Command has stressed in recent months that it has no plans to claim Special Operations Command CV-22s to carry out the long-range combat rescue helicopter mission.  

Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, told the Senate Armed Services airland panel on April 26 that 85 HH-60Ws “is more than sufficient” to do the combat rescue helicopter mission.

“There’s a big distinction in this portfolio between combat search and rescue and personnel recovery,” he added. “There are literally thousands of platforms in the Department of Defense that can do personnel recovery.”

The HH-60W fleet “is for something very specific. It was purchased for [the] Iraq and Afghanistan [theaters]. It is not particularly helpful in the Chinese AOR” or area of operations, Moore said.

Lt. Gen. James Slife, deputy chief of staff for operations, added to the SASC panel that the Air Force still regards the recovery of downed Airmen a “moral imperative.”

Recalling the effort to save “Bat 21” in Vietnam, Slife said, “the challenge is … no matter how dedicated you are, if you’re not in a platform that’s survivable to the threat environment, you end up losing more people” with an attempted recovery than were downed in the first place.

“We’re actively looking at non-traditional ways in order to fulfill that moral imperative,” Slife added. “… But until we can come to a definitive answer on that. I think the one thing we can say is, helicopters [that fly at 150 knots, refueled by C-130s] is probably not the answer in our most stressing scenarios.”

The 85 HH-60Ws can bridge the gap “until we can develop a more suitable solution for a contested environment,” he said.

Bell Textron won the Army’s $1.3 billion contract for the Valor in December 2022, and the Sikorsky-Boeing team’s subsequent protest of the choice was denied in April. Prototype V-280 aircraft will be fabricated over the next 19 months. Army officials said the Valor was selected as the “best value” proposal across considerations of performance, cost, and schedule.

The FLRAA is potentially worth up to $70 billion, as it will largely replace the Army’s aging fleet of UH-60 Blackhawks.

The Air Force has traditionally met its much smaller need for helicopters by tacking on to Army utility helo programs like the UH-60 and before that, the UH-1. However, the service did select the Boeing MH-139 Gray Wolf, based on the Leonardo AW139, as its VIP/missile field support helicopter.

The Army is slated to get its first Valor prototype in 2025 and achieve initial operational capability circa 2030.