Air Force Vice Chief: B-21 Not Just a Bomber, Will Mesh with JADC2, NGAD

Dec. 16, 2022 | By Tobias Naegele

The many capabilities embodied by the Air Force’s next-generation B-21 Raider extend beyond conventional measures of range, payload, and radar-penetrating stealth—they also include “other things that it can be a part of that could help leverage the agility and the speed that we need to stay ahead of the adversary,” Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said in a recent interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine.

A former airlifter and test pilot who helped craft the vision that evolved into what is now known as joint all-domain command and control (JADC2), Allvin said the B-21’s unique characteristics will make it a crucial node in challenging the advanced capabilities of China as the nation’s pacing threat.

The full interview with Allvin will appear in the Air and Space Forces Magazine’s January-February edition.

“The B-21 could be the delivery platform [for precision ordnance] or there could be other roles that it could play, whether it be sensor, or whether it be accompanied with different types of collaborative combat aircraft,” Allvin said. “It has the capability to do some very unique things, and those unique things may not fall into the traditional ‘Put bombs in the bomb bay, go as deep as you can, and drop bombs’ [playbook].”

Allvin credited Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall for challenging the Air Force to see the B-21 “a little bit differently, not as just the next B-2, but as a part of a family of systems” that can generate a range of different effects and challenges to an adversary.

“Taking the attributes that it has, and seeing where it can best operate and how it can best operate as part of another system,” changes the definition of what a stealth bomber can do, Allvin said—and how it might work in tandem with another next-generation Air Force development project, the Next Generation Air Dominance family of systems.

“There’s no longer a single platform that just matters,” Allvin said. “We look at things in terms of fires and targets. And so how one combines to hit the right targets at the right time in the conflict … that doesn’t necessarily have to mean, this platform is going to go after all those assets, and this platform is going to [do something else]. There is a mixing of these that will enable you to leverage all the capabilities.”

Operationalizing B-21, NGAD, and the Advanced Battle Management System represent three of the seven Operational Imperatives that Kendall has pressed for over the course of his tenure. ABMS represents the systems that will make JADC2 not just a concept, but a true operational capability—the glue that will take existing and emerging new platforms and combine them into a network that connects sensors and shooters across the globe.

“That’s where this ‘Operationalizing Advanced Battle Management System’ Operational Imperative has come into play. And I think, that’s where we’re now starting to take all of the ideas—having a better understanding of what works and what doesn’t—and starting to put the architecture together,” Allvin said.

“You think about kill chains—links in the chain—and now you hear, of course, ‘kill webs.’ What does that mean? It means I have more than one way to get to the destination.”

That represents resilience in the information architecture as well as in offensive capability. “You have to focus on the targets—joint targets, mind you—in a way we really hadn’t imagined when you just had command and control by domain,” Allvin said.

This involves breaking down conventional barriers between services and domains, he added. “The more we can understand that the changing character of war means if I lose, you lose, and if you win at my expense, we all lose,” Allvin said, the more cooperative the individual service cultures will become. “We haven’t really had that type of conversation in the past. … We need to get that into our psyche, and then we’ll understand.”

Senate Passes 2023 NDAA. Will Biden Sign It?

Dec. 15, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

The Senate passed the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Dec. 15, sending the annual policy bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. But Biden could still opt to veto the bill over a controversial provision requiring the Pentagon to roll back its COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The vaccine requirement helped lead to the near universal vaccination of the force, with nearly 2 million troops receiving one of the approved vaccines. But it also became a political flashpoint, sparking legal battles and resulting in thousands of service members being booted for refusing the shots.

Top Congressional Democrats agreed to the provision as part of a compromise NDAA unveiled Dec. 6, but the White House and Defense Department officials were not party to the deal, and have said it would be a “mistake” to drop the requirement.

Vetoing the entire bill would be a gamble for the president. Both the House and the Senate passed the NDAA by large enough margins—350-80 and 83-11, respectively—that a veto could potentially be easily overridden.

Hundreds of other policy decisions, report requirements, and directives are contained in the NDAA’s 4,408 pages. And while the bill does not appropriate funding—that is the job of the defense appropriations bill—it does authorize spending maximums and guidelines.

For the Air Force in particular, the bill would allow for the divestment of some aircraft, like the A-10, KC-135, and E-8 JSTARS, but blocks or restricts others, including F-22, F-15, E-3 AWACS, and C-40 aircraft.

For the Space Force, the bill would require the development of “requirements for the defense and resilience of the satellites” before entering into acquisition programs, as well as the public disclosure of the department’s strategy for protecting and defending satellites in orbit.

For service members, the bill includes provisions that would extend Pentagon authorities to temporarily increase the Basic Allowance for Housing in areas where prices increase dramatically, require a broader study of how BAH is formulated, and authorize an evaluation by the Comptroller General on each service’s marketing and recruiting practices.

The 2023 NDAA includes a top line of $858 billion for national defense, including $816.7 billion for the Pentagon. That funding would need to be appropriated in a spending bill that is still under negotiations in Congress. Leaders there announced Dec. 13 that they had agreed to a “framework” for an omnibus spending bill that would fund the entire federal government, but details must still be worked out.

In the meantime, the continuing resolution currently funding the government fiscal 2022 levels was set to expire after Dec. 16. The House passed another CR Dec. 14 that would last through Dec. 23, the end of next week, and the Senate agreed to it later Dec. 16.

Severe Weather Hits Near Nuclear Bomber Bases; No Damage Reported

Dec. 15, 2022 | By Chris Gordon

From a nearby tornado to heavy snow to a closed runway, bases hosting the Air Force’s nuclear bomber fleet has dealt with a number of headaches in the past week.

Air Force Global Strike Command’s fleet of nuclear-capable bombers, including the B-52 Stratofortress and B-2 Spirit, are spread out across the continental United States, operating from Barksdale Air Force Base, La.; Minot Air Force Base, N.D.; and Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo.

With those bombers forming the air leg of the U.S. military’s nuclear triad, the Airmen who operate them are constantly ready and trained to act with the utmost care, according to the Department of Defense, making America’s nuclear force resilient in the face of any attack.

“So let us always ensure that the most dangerous weapons ever produced by human science are managed with the greatest responsibility ever produced by human government,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said at the change of command ceremony for U.S. Strategic Command on Dec. 9.

But there are some things humans cannot control. Severe storms caused a tornado to touch down about 20 miles from Barksdale Air Force Base on Dec. 13. Another storm in North Dakota packed several inches of snow and ice onto Minot Air Force Base starting on Dec. 12. And the only runway at Whiteman Air Force Base remains closed as of Dec. 15, the result of a Dec. 10 incident in which a B-2 was forced to make an emergency landing.

Thus far, there has been seemingly no effect on essential operations, though.

A spokesperson for the 2nd Bomb Wing, which operates B-52s at Barksdale, told Air & Space Forces Magazine on Dec. 15 that no aircraft were moved due to the storm and no aircraft or facilities at Barksdale were damaged.

Minot Air Force Base did not immediately respond to a request for comment Dec. 15 when asked about the status of its flight operations, but on Facebook, the base told “care support” and “general support” staff not to report for duty on Dec. 14 or 15. Storm essential personnel—including the fire department, security forces, command post, medical facilities, snow control, and critical maintenance—and mission essential personnel are still being told to report to work.

The base remains under a blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service that will expire Dec. 16—leaders are telling the public not to travel on roads on or near the base, but no damage has been reported.

A spokesperson for the 509th Bomb Wing at Whiteman Air Force Base did not have an update on when the base’s runway would reopen.

Severe weather has been a much more serious issue for America’s nuclear forces before. In 1952, two-thirds of the Air Force’s long-range strategic bombers of the period, B-36 Peacemakers, were damaged or destroyed when a tornado struck Carswell Air Force Base, Texas. The head of Stragetic Air Command Gen. Curtis Lemay ordered a large and urgent repair program called Project Fixit that got the almost all of the fleet back into service within a few weeks. Now, the Air Force often flies aircraft out of the path of oncoming severe weather, particularly when hurricanes are projected.

While Barksdale escaped without damage, the storms were nevertheless severe in the surrounding area. At least three people were killed in Louisiana, two in the tornado that touched down near Barksdale. Louisiana’s governor declared a state of emergency and the Louisiana National Guard said it is assisting in the disaster response.

Germany Formally Signs on for 35 New F-35s

Dec. 15, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Germany has signed the letter of acceptance that formalizes its planned purchase of 35 new-build F-35s, its ministry of defense announced Dec. 14. The first eight aircraft will be delivered in 2026.

The sale brings the number of countries that have either formally signed up for the F-35 or signaled an intent to do so to 17, including the U.S.

The F-35 deal includes weapons, engines, technical and logistics support, and training. It also includes “role-specific mission equipment,” which an F-35 Joint Program Office spokesperson explained is “alternate mission equipment—underwing pylons, bomb release units, missile launchers and weapons bay adapters necessary to employ F-35 weapons.” This gear comprises “capabilities procured by all countries and are not unique to Germany.”

Germany will likely purchase some weapons for the F-35 that that are not made by the U.S. but are or will be certified for the fighter, a Pentagon official said.

German defense minister Christine Lambrecht said the deal had been approved by the German parliament’s budget committee as part of a $13.85 billion package of military spending, which draws on a special $112 billion defense fund created after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

In announcing the moves, Lambrecht said the $112 billion fund “will probably not be enough to close the gaps that emerged over the past years because we neglected procurement.”

The F-35s are intended to modernize the Luftwaffe, which is flying vintage Tornado strike and electronic warfare aircraft from the 1980s and ’90s. The F-35 will also keep Germany capable of delivering U.S. tactical nuclear weapons stored on German soil. The Tornado is expected to retire by the end of the decade.

Germany had previously selected a mix of F/A-18E/F fighter and EA-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft but then backed off, saying the F-35 offered better integration and networking with other NATO countries that are also buying the F-35.

In a statement shared by F-35 maker Lockheed Martin, Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt, Program Executive Officer for the fighter, congratulated Germany on becoming “the ninth Foreign Military Sales country to join the program.”

“We look forward to working with them to deliver the F-35 Air System to meet their national defense requirements,” Schmidt added—the other eight countries are original partners who contributed to development of the F-35.

Germany will also buy some additional Eurofighter Typhoons to supplement its existing fleet. The F-35s will be used for air superiority and strike while the Typhoons will be fitted for electronic warfare and escort.

The F-35 buy will not derail a planned Future Combat Air System fighter Germany plans to develop with France and other partners, and introduce in the 2040s, the German MOD said.

The original F-35 partners include Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the U.K., and the U.S. Turkey was also a developmental partner but was drummed out of the program over its insistence on buying Russian S-400 air defense systems, which the partners said would compromise the F-35’s stealth capabilities. Turkey has since begun a program to develop an indigenous fighter bearing a strong resemblance to the F-35.

Other FMS customers include Belgium, Finland, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Poland and Singapore. Switzerland is in the process of defining its buy, and Spain is strongly rumored to be planning to acquire the F-35 as well.

Lockheed said that by the 2030s, “over 550 F-35s will work together from more than 10 European countries, including two full U.S. F-35 squadrons at RAF Lakenheath.” The company said the F-35 operates from 26 bases worldwide, and that there are “more than 875 F-35s in service today, with more than 1,845 pilots and 13,350 maintainers trained on the aircraft.”

Big BAH Boost Coming: Which Bases Get the Biggest Increase

Dec. 15, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

Housing allowances are finally catching up, as the Pentagon announced new Basic Allowance for Housing rates Dec. 14. On average, monthly payments will rise 12.1 percent starting Jan. 1.

Increases vary by location. BAH is determined based on paygrade, location, and whether or not members have dependents. To find your rate, type your variables into DOD’s BAH calculator.

The 2023 average increase is the largest in at least a decade, more than double last year’s 5.1 percent increase, until now the largest in that timespan. The jump is “reflective of the unique market conditions experienced across many locations nationwide over the past year,” DOD noted in a press release.

But while some members will see increases of 20 percent or more, others may see no change or as little as a 1 percent increase in 2023. This is because housing cost increases varied wildly across the nation in the past year.

Overall, median home prices across the U.S. rose more than 10 percent in the past year. Inflation for housing costs, which includes rent and utilities, rose more than seven percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rates will rise 20 percent or more in several dozen locales, including Patrick Space Force Base, Fla.; Dover Air Force Base, Del.; Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif.; and Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J.

Increases of 15 percent to 20 percent are in store for military members stationed at Dyess Air Force Base, Texas; Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont.; Hanscom Air Force Base, Mass.; Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D.; Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C.; and Shaw Air Force Base, S.C.

In all, among 300 military housing markets, 290 will see BAH increases of at least 1 percent increase 2023. Rates will decline in a few areas, including Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., and Vance Air Force Base, Okla. Members who maintained their eligibility in those locations will continue to receive the same BAH, ensuring that those “who have made long-term commitments in the form of a lease or contract are not penalized,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

The Defense Department calculates BAH through annual surveys of roughly 300 rental markets across the country, determining the median price of rent and utilities for six different housing options in each of those markets.

BAH is intended to cover 95 percent of housing costs. For 2023, that means troops out-of-pocket expenses for housing range from $82 to $184 per month.

The BAH increases follow the Pentagon’s announcement that Basic Allowance for Subsistence, which pays for service members’ meals, will rise 11.2 percent in 2023—the largest year-over-year increase since 2002.

Still, BAH increases lag the market. Housing prices surged over the past year, forcing the Pentagon to authorize temporary increases in October for markets where housing costs ballooned 20 percent or more during 2022. The same was necessary in 2021 as well.

Further temporary increases may be necessary. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, which should clear Congress in the coming days, includes a provision extending the emergency authority for temporary increases through fiscal 2024.

Meanwhile, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass has called for a “holistic” review of military compensation, including the potential application of new data-driven algorithms that might replace annual surveys to more accurately calculate allowance rates. And if the NDAA passes, it will require the Pentagon to report on the “efficiency and accuracy of the current system used to calculate BAH,” and consider potential alternatives, including using data from local school districts; adjusting BAH more than once annually; and being more transparent about how rates are set.

New B-21 Test Aircraft Heraldry, Barely Visible at Rollout, Revealed

Dec. 15, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

The first B-21 bomber, which rolled out of Northrop Grumman’s facilities at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale Calif., on Dec. 2, bears three organizational emblems, barely visible on the aircraft’s surface behind its unusual cockpit windows—Air Force Materiel Command, Global Strike Command, and the 412th Test Wing.

The heraldry was present on aircraft No. 00001—also called T-1—at the event but was hard to see because of the low-visibility finish of the markings, the lighting effects ,and the distance of the aircraft from the audience. They could only be seen from the side of the B-21, while most of the attendees and all photographers were confined to a space directly in front of the aircraft. The Air Force disclosed the organizations in an email to Air & Space Forces Magazine on Dec. 15.

Air Force Materiel Command is responsible for overall test and sustainment of the new bomber, although development and management of the program thus far has been conducted by the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office.
Global Strike Command will “own” and fly the B-21 when it enters operational service sometime in the next few years. The first B-21s will operate from Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D. The B-21 is expected to be part of a two-bomber force (with the upgraded and re-engined B-52) when the B-1 and B-2 retire in the 2030s, and GSC expects to field a force of at least 100 B-21s.
The 412th Test Wing, at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., is the organization that conducts Air Force flight testing.

The emblem of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. U.S. Air Force image

The B-2 bomber similarly has heraldry applied aft of its cockpit—recent imagery from an exercise at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., the only location of the B-2, shows the emblems of AFGSC, the 509th Bomb Wing, and the 131st Bomb Wing in Missouri’s Air National Guard, all applied in muted black and gray. B-52 bombers, by contrast, often have colorful art and emblems of their squadrons painted near the cockpit.

Although apparently not featured on the B-21, the 420th Flight Test Squadron is the combined test force that will perform all B-21 testing. The CTF comprises the 420th; Detachment 5 of the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center (AFOTEC), and a team from Northrop Grumman. The 420th was reactivated Oct. 19, 2019, to prepare for B-21 test operations. The unit will oversee all air and ground testing of the bomber, and provide analysis of the results.

The B-21 at the rollout ceremony also had the “tailcode” ED applied to the main landing gear, denoting it as an Edwards Air Force Base aircraft. It was also marked with the serial number on the nose landing gear and the logo of Northrop Grumman flight test under the nose. No other markings could be discerned.

Aircraft T-1 was rolled out because the Air Force and Northrop will soon begin outside activities with the airplane to prepare it for its first flight, expected mid-2023. In the coming weeks the bomber will be outside of Plant 42 for engine and taxi tests, and more imagery is likely to become available when it is exposed to public view. The first flight of the aircraft will be “event based”—meaning USAF will fly the airplane only when all is ready, rather than on a planned date set in advance—but service officials have indicated they will alert the press when the flight is imminent.

The B-2 flew for the first time about nine months after its rollout. Program officials have said the B-21 should improve on that.

SDA Delays First Satellite Launches

Dec. 14, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

It will take a few extra months for the Space Development Agency’s “Tranche 0”—the initial batch of satellites in SDA’s planned constellation in low-Earth orbit—to lift off, as the agency has delayed two planned launches.

The first launch for Tranche 0, which will also be the first launch in SDA’s history, is now scheduled for March 2023. That’s six months later than the agency’s initial goal of September 2022, which it announced in 2020 when it awarded contracts for the satellites to Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems. That timeline had already been pushed back once to mid-December, with Director Derek M. Tournear citing supply chain issues.

Previously, the agency had stuck to a goal of March 2023 for its second launch of Tranche 0 satellites. Now, however, it is saying that launch has been delayed to June 2023.

SpaceNews first reported the schedule slips, citing technical issues with York Space’s satellites. An SDA spokesperson confirmed the schedule changes to Air & Space Forces Magazine but did not respond directly to queries as to why both dates had changed, only mentioning “careful analysis and … input” from contractors.

“By contract, all four Space Development Agency Tranche 0 performers were required to have their space vehicles ready for launch in September 2022—that was the earliest possible launch date and set a very aggressive delivery schedule,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “SDA built in some launch flexibility to account for risks. As the performers identified and began to mitigate challenges to the aggressive delivery schedule, we adjusted our initial launch to December. More recently, after careful analysis and with input from our performers, we’ve set the initial Tranche 0 launch for March 2023; the second Tranche 0 launch is planned for June 2023.”

Tranche 0 is slated to include 28 satellites in total—20 in the Transport Layer, responsible for communications and data transmission, and 8 in the Tracking Layer, for missile tracking and warning. Lockheed and York split the contract for the Transport Layer, while SpaceX and L3Harris shared the Tracking Layer award. Supply chain issues have reportedly slowed progress on L3Harris’ satellites.

SDA says Tranche 0 will still be in place “in time to participate in critical capability demonstrations,” including military exercises in 2023 and missile targeting demonstrations in 2024, the spokesperson said. Furthermore, the agency is still sticking with its schedule for Tranche 1, aiming to start launching those satellites in September 2024.

Awards for Tranche 1 have already been handed out—York, Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman each earned a part of the Transport Layer, while L3Harris and Northrop won the Tracking Layer. York also won a contract for a planned “Demonstration and Experimentation” program that will be part of Tranche 1.

York Space did not immediately respond to a query from Air & Space Forces Magazine as to whether the technical issue identified with their Tranche 0 satellites will affect the delivery of their Tranche 1 satellites.

In its statement, however, SDA projected confidence that the issues with Tranche 0 will be resolved and help shape future approaches.

“The learning process provides SDA the opportunity to grow our relationship with industry and apply Tranche 0 lessons to future tranches,” the statement read. “SDA is not backing off on speed, as we still believe schedule is king. SDA will continue to push forward and accelerate delivery to field the proliferated low Earth orbit architecture.”

All told, Tranche 1 will consist of more than 160 satellites—128 in the Transport Layer, 28 in the Tracking Layer, and 12 in the Demonstration and Experimentation program. Launches are expected to continue into 2025.

Air Force Leaders: CCA Is About Capability, Not Just Cost

Dec. 14, 2022 | By Greg Hadley

With the Air Force poised to pour significant resources into its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, the service shouldn’t become fixated on a particular price point for each of the unmanned aircraft to the point of neglecting capability or reliability, two of the generals helping lead the program’s development said Dec. 14.

Maj. Gen. Scott Jobe, director of plans, programs, and requirements for Air Combat Command, and Brig. Gen. Dale R. White, the USAF’s program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft, both addressed the issue of cost for CCAs as part of a virtual rollout for a Mitchell Institute report.

That report, authored by Caitlin Lee and retired Col. Mark Gunzinger, was based off a three-day workshop hosted by the Mitchell Institute that brought together Air Force and industry leaders, planners, and operators to consider the kinds of autonomous collaborative platforms the service should focus on building.

The report found that workshop participants generally favored larger quantities of drones, even if it meant trading off some capability. That finding was based on what the authors admitted was a generally “optimistic” assumption that such drones would cost roughly $1,000 per pound—far less than most manned platforms today, and a cost that experts believe could be accurate in the future but lack the real-world data to confirm.

“We do need to get after this cost assessment issue—what is the right cost per pound? And we need the data to prove it out,” Lee noted in presenting the report’s recommendation.

The question of just how much the Air Force would be willing to spend on these CCAs isn’t completely answered, but Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has offered at least something of an upper limit, saying earlier this year he’d like a system with half the cost or less of next-generation manned platforms like the B-21 bomber or Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter.

Such a standard could still mean CCAs that cost tens of millions of dollars. But White, who will oversee much of the acquisition process for the platforms, warned against fixating too much on price.

“The Secretary has said … he would expect this to be about half the cost of a crewed aircraft … half the cost of an F-35,” White noted. “Those are some of the bounds people are putting on it, but I think there’s danger in that. Because then you start building to an expected number, when in reality what you need to do is be building to a capability. And then you need to decide whether or not that number is too high and it doesn’t build in that cost imposition you’d want.”

Acknowledging that price will “drive the decision space” on CCAs, White said that affordability will continue to be a “driving factor” in how the program is developed. But beyond that, he stressed the importance of cost imposition—the effect of creating problems or dilemmas for an adversary—as something that must be considered.

“One thing Gen. Jobe and I talk about a lot, and I think this is critically important, is we can’t lose sight of the fact that cost imposition is important,” White said.

Jobe also stressed the importance of return on investment—ensuring the right effects for the right cost. And the baseline for that, he added, is ensuring that when an Airman “is out there on that leading edge and he’s force packaging up and he’s going to count on a large swarm of CCAs to show up—if they don’t show up because of reliability problems, we got the cost too low.”

There are other factors to consider as well—the more complex and expensive the aircraft becomes, the longer it will take to develop and build, White noted. And speed has been a priority for CCA, with various leaders calling for the drones to be quickly fielded and then iterated upon. It’s an approach Jobe is taking while developing program requirements—his goal, he said is that they be “flexible, fungible and will develop rapidly over time.”

Neither general could offer concrete timelines and costs for CCAs, but White offered a hint that as the 2024 budget and more gets rolled out next year, those details will start to become clear.

“As we start getting more into the discussion of the budgets rolling out, we’re going to have probably a greater conversation about what that number looks like,” White said. “And I don’t think we should fix that number either. That’s the other thing. It’s not going to be just a single number because there may be some times you’re going to want some of these systems to be a little more complex and a little less attritable.”

Three More Successful All-Up ARRW Tests Required Before Production Decision

Dec. 14, 2022 | By John A. Tirpak

Three more “all-up” flight tests of the AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) must succeed before the Air Force decides whether to press on into production for the hypersonic missile, the service has told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“The ARRW rapid prototyping program plans for four All-Up Round Test Flights (ATFs),” an Air Force spokesperson said in response to questions posed following a Dec. 9 all-up ARRW flight test the service characterized as a success. All-up testing refers to using the operationally-configured system.

“We will need to analyze all four planned ATFs before making a determination” as to whether to enter production, the Air Force spokesperson said. “Our goal is to have a leave-behind capability by the early 2020s.”

The next test is tentatively slotted for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, the Air Force said, but the target area and “target set” are classified.

The ARRW is a missile system, launched from a bomber, that relies on a booster to accelerate to hypersonic speed, at which point a vehicle separates from the booster and glides at Mach 5 or faster to its target, maneuvering along the way. Much of the technology and the details of the program are classified.

The program calls for a “leave-behind” capability of an undisclosed number of missiles that could be used in combat after the prototyping phase ends, the Air Force said. Initial plans called for an operational asset to be available in 2022, but a series of test failures and delays have pushed back that timeline. There have been three successful flights of ARRW this year; the last one was the first for an “all-up round” that could carry out the end-to-end sequence of the weapon’s employment.

The Air Force asked for $161 million to buy 12 ARRWs in the fiscal 2023 budget request, but Congress slashed that request in half due to testing delays and other issues.

Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control is the contractor for ARRW. Responding to questions after the Dec. 9 test, the company said it does not yet have a commitment from the Air Force to enter production.

“We cannot speak for future U.S. Government budgetary strategy or decisions,” according to Jay Pitman, vice president of air dominance and strike weapons, “beyond what was asked for in the development program.”

However, “this successful test is a terrific confidence builder that the weapon can be produced and operate as the Air Force asked us to do, and paves the road for further tests to fully qualify the system,” Pitman added.

In addition to carrying out a further three all-up flight tests, Lockheed must formally demonstrate its “production readiness at our final assembly plant and within the supply chain,” in order to complete the development program, Pitman said in an email.

The Dec. 9 test “validates the design and production of the current configuration of our system, which focuses on a full-prototype operational missile,” Pitman said.

“Due to the highly-accelerated timeline of the program, we are running operational scenarios and testing alongside traditional testing to greatly reduce the time it takes to get these systems to the warfighter. With this test, we demonstrated the missile’s operational end-to-end capability at hypersonic speeds.”

Congress has been pushing the Pentagon to match Chinese capability in hypersonic weapons, as Beijing is considered ahead in this area of technology. However, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has cautioned that USAF’s weapon needs are different from those of China, and a huge investment in hypersonics is not necessarily an Air Force priority.

Andrew Hunter, Air Force acquisition executive, told reporters in July that even if ARRW “works,” it has to offer “the right contribution to the overall weapons mix” relative to the “highest priority targets.” This, he said, is what is driving Air Force decisions about production. However, Hunter said he wants to be able to move out rapidly with production if the decision is made to do so.