US Announces $2.5 Billion Package for Ukraine—But Experts Say More Urgency Is Needed

Jan. 19, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

On the eve of a pivotal meeting on how to help Ukraine respond to Russia’s nearly yearlong invasion, the Biden administration announced a $2.5 billion military aid package Jan. 19, which will send Stryker armored personnel carriers for the first time and also provide “critical support for Ukraine’s air defense,” according to the Department of Defense.

Armored forces and air defense are likely to be the top focus of the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, according to DOD officials.

As part of this latest aid package, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers, 59 more Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, eight more Avenger air defense systems, and additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and HIMARS.

“The Kremlin’s most recent air attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure again demonstrate the devastating impact of Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine,” a DOD news release stated. “This package provides additional NASAMS munitions and Avenger air defense systems to help Ukraine counter a range of short- and medium-range threats and bolster Ukraine’s layered air defense. The 59 Bradley IFVs included in this package, together with the 50 Bradleys previously committed on January 6, and the 90 Stryker APCs will provide Ukraine with two brigades of armored capability.”

The U.S. aid, however, comes amid some debate among allies supporting Ukraine, principally over whether German-made Leopard tanks will be in the mix. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III met with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Jan. 19 in an attempt to forge a common position.

Pentagon officials described the allied support as a carefully calibrated effort to help the Ukrainians defend their sovereignty without escalating the war into a direct U.S.-Russian confrontation.

“There’s kind of been these phases and our security assistance has really focused on surging capabilities for the phase,” Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters at the Pentagon on Jan. 18, following a trip he made to Kyiv.

But there is some consternation among former officials and defense experts about whether the West is moving fast enough and doing enough to support the Ukrainians.

“They’re making a bunch of incremental decisions and trying to make it sound prudent,” Eliot Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “And it’s not prudent in war because that might be an approach that works in other walks of life, but it doesn’t work in war.”

As Ukraine’s energy grid has been pummeled by Russian missile and drone attacks, Western countries have provided air defense systems, and talks will center on that element in the upcoming meeting, according to Kahl. The Avenger system, which uses multiple Stinger man-portable air defense launchers mounted on a truck, is a relatively low-cost way to help Ukraine battle Russia’s drone barrage.

The U.S. and Germany have previously said they will provide advanced Patriot air defense systems to help protect Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistic missile attacks.

But it will take months to train Ukrainian groups to operate the Patriot systems. While the U.S. first promised to a Patriot battery in December, Ukrainian troops have only just started to train on the system in Fort Sill, Okla.

“The top priority remains air defense,” Kahl said. “They’re clearly not just trying to turn the lights out across Ukraine. They’re also trying to exhaust the ability of Ukrainian air defenses to continue to protect Ukrainian airspace. So Ukrainians know that we know that and as a consequence, we’re committed to keeping making sure that the Ukrainians remain viable.”

Tanks have been another nettlesome issue.

Poland has said it is ready to send Leopard tanks, but since the tank is of German origin, it officially needs Berlin’s approval first.

But Germany has made it clear that it does not want to be the first to introduce Western-made tanks onto the battlefield.

“Consent is a secondary issue here,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Jan. 18. “We will either get this agreement quickly, or we will do the right thing ourselves.”

While the U.K. says it is sending a squadron of Challenger II tanks, America’s main battle tank, the M1 Abrams, has not been pledged.

Finland has also said it is willing to send some of its German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but leaders in Helsinki are waiting on NATO members to take the lead.

Amid the public debate, President Biden spoke with German chancellor Olaf Scholtz to discuss “their ongoing assistance to Ukraine,” according to a White House readout of the call.

Outside of government, there has been frustration over Berlin’s response.

“Germany is in danger of forfeiting its hard-earned moral authority if it does not step forward in a clear, decisive way to do all it can to ensure Russia does not win,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, said in a tweet.

The U.S. previously said it will provide 4,000 Zuni rockets and an unspecified amount of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) guided bombs in the past month. The U.S. has been providing anti-radiation missiles for months, and it is adding an unspecified amount of High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs) in the latest package, though those munitions are intended to attack surface-to-air sites, while the Zunis and JDAMs offer a strike capability. Zuni rockets come in guided and unguided variants, though the Pentagon declined to say which type the U.S. is providing when asked by Air & Space Forces Magazine, citing operational security. Systems that are not on the table at the meeting are fixed-wing aircraft and long-range ATACMS missiles.

“There have been times where the Ukrainians have asked things we haven’t provided,” Kahl said. “Most of the time we have; some of the time we haven’t. I think, though, our track record as a partnership is pretty good.”

Russia’s attacks, however, often come from areas outside the range of U.S.-provided systems the Biden administration has given Kyiv. Drone bases are set up in occupied Crimea, but the GMLRS missiles fired from HIMARS launchers only have a range of about 50 miles.

“Get the right weapons into their hands,” Cohen said, highlighting ATACMS. “By doing that you help demoralize the Russians because part what’s giving the Russians hope is exactly this kind of dribbling in of really advanced systems. They really need to be able to hit Russian targets throughout the entire depth and breadth of Ukraine.”

“In war speed matters,” Cohen added.

During a visit to Washington, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the West needs a strategy to aid Ukraine to win the war, not merely sustain itself against Russian attacks. While noting his country’s leading role as the second-largest military aid donor to Ukraine behind the U.S. and its recent provision of Challenger IIs, Cleverly said it was a “moral imperative” to ensure Ukraine wins on the battlefield.

The war is now a brutal battle of artillery and armor–Kahl said the war is a “grinding slugfest.”

Cleverly, the U.K.’s top diplomat, said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy was to outlast the West. Cleverly, who met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Washington, said Ukraine’s allies should not play into the Kremlin’s hands.

“It will cost so much more in human lives and so much more in money, if we allow this to be a long, drawn-out attritional war,” Cleverly said Jan. 17 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “What Putin should understand is we are going to have the strategic endurance to stick with them until the job is done.”

The latest U.S. package includes:

Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Eight Avenger air defense systems;
59 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) with 590 TOW anti-tank missiles and 295,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
90 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) with 20 mine rollers;
53 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
350 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
20,000 155mm artillery rounds;
Approximately 600 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
Approximately 11,800 120mm mortar rounds;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
12 ammunition support vehicles;
6 command post vehicles;
22 tactical vehicles to tow weapons;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
Over 3,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
Demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
Night vision devices;
Spare parts and other field equipment.

What’s Needed to Put Nukes in S. Korea? It’s Time to Start Planning, New Report Says

Jan. 19, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

An independent, bipartisan commission is recommending the U.S. and South Korea begin “pre-decisional” discussions about what it would take to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the region should tensions reach a point where such a move is warranted.

The 14-member Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on the Korean Peninsula, comprised of former diplomats and defense officials, as well as academics, concluded that redeploying nuclear weapons is not necessary under present conditions. But its report and recommendations, released Jan. 19, acknowledge the “perilous landscape” for the U.S.-South Korean alliance.

Members of the panel include retired Army Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea; Randall G. Schriver, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Richard L. Armitage, former Deputy Secretary of State; and Katrin F. Katz, former director of Korea, Japan, and Oceanic Affairs for the National Security Council.

INorth Korea spate of recent nuclear missile tests have increased tensions on the peninsula, with U.S. aircraft flying show-of-force missions alongside South Korean fighters and, last week, Republic of Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol announcing that his country may be forced to either ask the U.S. to redeploy nuclear arms on the peninsula or to develop nuclear weapons of its own.

Yoon’s comments sparked a wave of debate over nuclear proliferation; a public poll in South Korea suggested growing support for countering the North’s nuclear program with one of its own.

Brooks offered a cautious outlook at a virtual event for the report’s release. “Under the present circumstances, especially given the second purpose of extended deterrence, which is to prevent proliferation,” Brook said, “nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula…is not helpful at the present time or needed.”

But as part of a series of recommendations for bolstering extended deterrence, the commission did include “one door that was left open,” Brooks said.

“The allies should consider tabletop planning exercises for the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea,” the recommendation states. “This planning should be explicitly pre-decisional. The timeline and scope of weapons … should be left deliberately ambiguous. Decision-making would be calibrated to shifts in the security environment and the North Korean threat level.”

Planning exercises should consider factors such as storage facilities for nuclear weapons, joint training on nuclear safety and security, and “certifying Korea-based U.S. F-16 units or F-35 replacements for combined exercises and nuclear missions,” the report adds.

The U.S. Air Force today bases A-10s and F-16s at both Osan and Kunsan Air Bases and has not announced plans to replace them with F-35s, but over time, F-35s will supplant those older platforms. The U.S. withdrew its nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula in 1991.

Considering logistical steps for supporting nuclear arms in South Korea is necessary to ensure preparedness for all possible contingencies, Katz argued.

“I think it’s somewhat irresponsible to not think about those things and talk about it fully in the abstract,” Katz said. “So I don’t think we should be fearful of talking about the thing itself, and I think there’s a little bit of that right now.”

The commission also recommended the U.S. consider shifting its strategic and nuclear posture in the region, such as whether it would make sense to maintain a “continuous presence of … either U.S. submarines equipped with nuclear cruise missiles or strategic bombers, or investing in infrastructure in South Korea to [support] U.S. dual-capable aircraft.”

The Air Force regularly deploys bombers to the Indo-Pacific through its Bomber Task Forces, typically basing those deploying units in Guam and flying missions to Australia and Japan. Recently, however, B-52 nuclear-capable bombers and a B-1B Lancer flew with South Korean fighters near the peninsula, in response to North Korean missile tests.

The commission also recommended maintaining existing military exercises, expanding cooperation in space “to enhance reconnaissance capabilities,” and providing South Korea direct access to the Space-Based Infrared System for missile warning. The U.S. recently agreed to extend cooperation in Space with Japan, another strong ally in the region.

Daring Hostage Rescue Nets 2 Distinguished Flying Crosses

Jan. 19, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Two Airmen were awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for their part in in a daring, dangerous hostage rescue operation in Africa more than two years ago. Three others on the mission received Air Medals. The awards were presented at a Jan. 11 ceremony at Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M.

Maj. Kyle Konkolics and Senior Master Sgt. Christopher Reedy received DFCs, the military’s fourth-highest award for heroism, for a short-notice mission in Northern Nigeria, where they rescued Philip Walton, a 27-year-old U.S. citizen who had been abducted in neighboring Niger, according to a contemporaneous report.

Others on the mission were Staff Sgt. Christin Springs, Tech. Sgt. Thomas Morgan, and Staff Sgt. Robert Duck, all of whom received the Air Medal for their efforts.

Flying CV-22 Osprey and MC-130J Commando II aircraft, the Special Operations Airmen transported members of Navy Seal Team 6 from Rota, Spain, to Nigeria for the rescue operation, which concluded with no U.S. casualties. KC-135 tankers and an AC-130J gunship also supported the operation, according to media reports at the time.

The 11-hour flight to Nigeria was the longest-distance night-time hostage rescue in Pentagon history, according to the Air Force release, and involved the CV-22’s longest flight at high altitude, according to the Albuquerque Journal.

According to citations for the awards, flying at high altitude in the CV-22’s unpressurized cabin caused several members of the assault team to suffer hypoxia from lack of oxygen. Crews had to conduct multiple air-to-air refueling operations in the dark over remote, desolate terrain, and at least one KC-135 suffered an electrical failure, and

In the midst of the operation, the CV-22 in which Reedy was flying suffered a “total loss of critical aircraft systems,” according to the citation. Reedy helped regain the use of one radio and coordinated a refueling and landing with no cockpit displays. Konkolics, piloting a second CV-22, escorted the malfunctioning aircraft for its emergency landing and then rejoined the formation to continue the mission, landing in “an unknown threat environment to recover the hostage and assault force at an unplanned, austere landing zone with obstacles mere feet away from his aircraft,” his citation reads.

Morgan also assisted with the emergency landing in a remote, austere environment, while Duck was recognized for giving his oxygen mask to members of the assault force who were suffering from hypoxia. Springs was honored for her efforts in refueling the MC-130J despite degraded communications.

Members of the 58th Special Operations Wing and Maj. Gen. Phillip Stewart pose during an award ceremony at Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico, Jan. 11, 2023. During the ceremony, members of the 58th Special Operations Wing were awarded The Distinguished Flying Cross or The Air Medal for their actions during a hostage rescue mission in 2020. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Spencer Kanar.

Emphasis on Speed, Commercial Capabilities Highlight a Changing Culture in Space Acquisition

Jan. 19, 2023 | By Christopher Prawdzik

Integrating commercial partners and priming an ever-accelerating development and acquisition process will define the future for Pentagon space programs, acquisition leaders predicted at the 2023 GovCon Wire Space Acquisition Forum on Jan. 18.

Keynote speaker Frank Calvelli, assistant secretary of the Air Force for space acquisition and integration, reiterated the nine guiding “tenets” of the acquisition process he unveiled in 2022. These include smaller and more resilient satellite systems, using existing technology, fixed-price contracts, and a start-to-launch period of no more than three years. He also emphasized using commercially available resources where possible.

“There’s no better way to make capability available faster than just to take advantage of what’s out there commercially today,” Calvelli said. “Whether that’s military satellite communications over commercial communications networks based on an awareness or even [a] commercial launch, leveraging commercial services at speed diversifies the architecture and adds resiliency.”

Inherent in this process, however, is the challenge of placing evolutionary technological development within a defined rapid acquisition construct.

Panelist Kelly Hammett, director and program executive officer for the Space Rapid Capabilities Office within the Space Force, argued for more objectivity on how certain systems may mature within this complex process. Though he agreed that working through Calvelli’s rapid acquisition model is effective, it has limits.

“That only works when you can go buy stuff that’s already been developed,” he said. “When we get some of our highly classified Space Command-driven, urgent priorities, the first thing is [to] understand that requirement very well, understand the maturity of the solutions that are potentially available, and … that drives your acquisition strategy,” he said.

Ultimately, Hammett said the goal is to ensure the requirement is correct.

“Essentially having a trade space in that requirement with a minimum viable product, and some room to trade cost performance schedule, is really key to setting up the program right,” he said.

Integral to this process, Hammett added, is having the right people in the right place to take advantage of all available tools.

He applauded Calvelli’s institution of quarterly portfolio reviews with metrics in space acquisition, noting that tracking those key leading indicators can keep the process on schedule. In addition, Hammett emphasized increased communication and interoperability, which has broken down some barriers in the process.

“When you have stovepipes and different decision processes in governance, you start to diverge,” he said. “That’s one other best practice that we’re starting to use, and it’s paying some dividends, but there’s a way to go on this.”

Gordon Kordyak, deputy director of the space programs directorate for the Air Force, agreed and said he’s focused on resilience and how to operate in a contested environment with emerging threats. Open dialogue and communication, he added, are crucial to ensure all players in the acquisition realm share a common understanding of what’s occurring throughout the process.

“We have to have a discussion about how requirements can be traded, how can requirements be thought of in a way to inform acquisition strategies such that we can take risks together as an operational community and acquiring community,” he said. “And most importantly, we’ve got to communicate about where we’re at in that progress [and] have transparency and an open discussion about when things go right [and] when things go wrong.”

Part of that discussion is “what is possible versus what is possible right now,” he added.

Col. Edward Ferguson, deputy director of space and missile defense in the office of the undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment, said his team is looking at the acquisition process from an entire mission perspective. Part of that focus is ensuring on-time delivery and integration to ultimately help the warfighter.

“Commercial plays a huge part of that,” he said. “What it does is it allows us to quickly fill any kind of capability gaps that we may have; it allows us to look at where the DOD doesn’t need to go develop something.”

He noted that he’s seen a paradigm shift in the department, from a force behind in capability development to one that utilizes capability and enjoys the flexibility this provides to meet government needs. It’s prompted department-wide changes.

“A couple of really big changes that we’ve made within the department are the adaptive acquisition framework, and then also changing the milestone decision authority for a lot of our space programs down to the service acquisition executive,” Ferguson said. “Those two big changes allow us as a department to move faster to deliver that capability.”

Barbara Baker, deputy program executive officer at Space Systems Command, added that she’s seen the commercial market advance capabilities beyond imagination.

“What we’re up against now is really trying to break down walls to realize we have to be more integrated between what industry is doing with commercial to what specifically we need to go build for very specialized programs,” she said. “There is a trade space that has opened up, and we need industry’s help to educate us on all the capability out there, and even for our big prime defense contractors to be working with commercial to realize those opportunities.”

She added that this is not a “one-size-fits-all” proposition, and it’s crucial to determine the best paths to utilize available capabilities, particularly with the timelines that weigh so heavily on the process.

“Getting after the commercial piece is really being able to figure out how to leverage their capability while also meeting government networks’ specific warfighter needs and trying to figure out how to sort of build that capability to its maximum use, while then figuring out what is the remaining sort of subset of requirements,” she said. “That’s a ‘build only what we must,’ and it is definitely a mindset change.”

Brown, Bass Visit CENTCOM and Pledge ‘Continued Commitment‘ to Middle East

Jan. 18, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown Jr. took a tour of the Middle East in early January, engaging with U.S. allies and visiting service members in the region, the Air Force announced.

Brown and Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass spent three days traveling to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, from Jan 6-9. The trip included “key leader engagements in multiple countries,” according to an Air Force release.

While much of the U.S. military’s focus has shifted to Russia’s war in Ukraine and long-term strategic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific, the Air Force still conducts significant operations in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility.

“The goal of the trip was to highlight the Air Force’s continued commitment to building trust and interoperability with regional partners and to show support for Airmen serving in the AOR, who are promoting stability through the performance of Air Forces Central’s critical operational mission and by promoting partnerships,” the Air Force said in a Jan. 17 news release.

The Air Force played a key role in the campaign to destroy the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria. But members of the group are attempting to make a comeback, and AFCENT supports ongoing efforts to fight ISIS as part of Operation Inherent Resolve.

The U.S. military also faces persistent threats from Iran and its proxies, which have launched missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, forcing the USAF to respond quickly at times. Over the past year, an F-15 blasted an Iranian drone that was heading toward Iraqi Kurdistan, and F-22s have deployed to the region on multiple occasions after reports of potential Iranian threats to allies.

In part due to the Department of Defense’s increased focus on other regions, CENTCOM has sought to refashion itself as a forward-thinking laboratory to test out new capabilities and technologies in combat conditions. Military leaders have insisted the U.S. can expand its partnerships and rely on innovation to counter any perceived gaps in resources.

“In the future, success in how we fight will not be determined by the simple arithmetic of boots on the ground but rather by maintaining our readiness to rapidly respond by flowing forces where they are needed globally, and to fall in with interoperable allies and partners,” Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said in a speech in Bahrain in November. “The pace of technological change demands that we do business differently, and CENTCOM has become a critical hub for innovation and experimentation.”

As part of that effort, AFCENT stood up Task Force 99 to experiment with relatively cheap drones to “impose a cost for a low cost,” in the words of Lt. Col. Erin Brilla, the unit’s commander. Brown visited Task Force 99 during his visit to Al Udeid. Brown and Bass also visited Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, as well as expeditionary air wings in the region.

Brown has firsthand experience in AFCENT, having served as its commander from 2015 to 2016.

AFCENT, now under the command of Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, has put a heavy emphasis on working to increase partnerships in the region, which is fraught with rivalries among countries that are friendly towards America.

During his trip, Brown met Royal Jordanian Air Force commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hiyasat as part of the Air Force’s push to engage more with U.S. allies. According to a U.S. Air Force readout of the meeting, the two leaders “agreed on the importance of deepening both bilateral and multilateral cooperation in pursuit of common objectives.”

The Air Force said Brown’s visit highlighted the service’s enduring attention to the Middle East.

“As airpower in the CENTCOM AOR becomes increasingly regionally integrated, AFCENT Airmen are leading the way to improved security for the whole of the Middle East,” Brown said in a statement. “I know that, as our partners interact with our men and women on a daily basis, they are encountering a professional, well-trained force that contributes to our collective, continued success.”

Spangdahlem F-16s Deploy to Kadena; Permanent Replacement for F-15s Will Be ‘Superior’

Jan. 18, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force has deployed F-16CMs from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to Kadena Air Base, Japan, to substitute for F-15C/Ds headed stateside for eventual retirement, the service said Jan. 16.

While at Kadena, the F-16s will be flying alongside some remaining F-15s, as well as F-22s which deployed there from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, shortly after the F-15 retirement plans were announced in October.

A permanent replacement for the F-15s still hasn’t been determined, but the fighters will eventually be succeeded by a “superior” system, the Air Force told Air & Space Forces Magazine—that could mean F-15EXs, the widely expected choice, F-22s, F-35s, or the Next-Generation Air Dominance system (NGAD).

Air & Space Forces Magazine first reported the F-15s would be replaced, at least temporarily, by F-16s from Spangdahlem in November. The departure of F-15s from Kadena, the last such jets in the Active-Duty force, will take two years as part of a “phased withdrawal.”

“A decision has not been made on a permanent replacement at this time,” a Kadena spokesperson said. But “all proposals under consideration include advanced capabilities that are superior to the F-15C/D.”

Until a final choice is made, fighter requirements at Kadena will be met using “the Global Force Management process to provide backfill solutions that maintain regional deterrence and bolster our ability to uphold our treaty obligations with Japan,” the spokesperson said.

The GFM supplies capabilities from across the Joint force to meet theater commander needs. However, the Air Force has said that it will find the needed fighters from within its own units and not relying on Navy or Marine Corps aircraft.

Located on the Japanese island of Okinawa, Kadena is the closest U.S. air base to Taiwan, which has been threatened by Chinese air exercises in recent months. The announcement of the F-15 withdrawal from Kadena raised the ire of a number of lawmakers, who said the move is reducing U.S. air capability in the area at a critical time.

Before the withdrawal began, Kadena fielded 48 F-15C/Ds in the 44th and 67th fighter squadrons. The current complement of all types now operating at Kadena is being withheld for security reasons, a USAF spokesperson said.

The F-16s going to Kadena are from the 52nd Fighter Wing and include aircraft with the “Have Glass” modification which improves their stealthiness through special paint and other features. The aircraft are F-16CMs, which are Block 40-42 or Block 50-52 aircraft that have received the Common Configuration Implementation Program (CCIP) upgrade, which includes helmet-mounted targeting systems and Link 16 connectivity, among other enhancements.

The F-22s at Kadena are from the 525th Fighter Squadron of the 3rd Wing at Elmendorf. The Air Force has not said how many Raptors deployed or how long they will stay. Together, the F-22s and F-16s comprise the 480th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron.

Some F-15s leaving Kadena will be shifted to Fresno Air National Guard Base, Calif., where they will join the 144th Fighter Wing of the California ANG after an extensive inspection. At least two F-15s from Kadena, still wearing their “ZZ” tailcodes, have have joined the 144th. They are among those aircraft that received replacement longerons and other key structural members in the wake of a 2007 accident, in which an Air Guard F-15C broke in half during a routine air combat maneuvering mission over Missouri. Other Kadena Eagles are expected to join other Guard units. A press release from the 144th said the unit expects to get more F-15s from Kadena.

That accident was caused by a failure of a longeron, a life-of-the-aircraft part that provides structural strength for the front half of the fighter. The aircraft involved had flown longer than the Air Force expected to keep the F-15 in service, and the longeron was not an item that received routine inspections at that point. The accident grounded the Air Force’s entire F-15 fleet for nearly six months as inspections and modifications were carried out on the fleet.

The F-22 was supposed to fully replace the F-15C/D, but the Raptor’s production termination in 2010 forced the Air Force to extend the F-15’s service life. In recent years, the Air Force has said it can no longer economically extend the F-15, and it is in the process of retiring the F-15C/D and buying F-15EX Eagle IIs to replace some 80 of them.

“While deployed here, the highly maneuverable, multirole F-16s will work in conjunction with Kadena-based assets” and the F-22s from Elmendorf, “to ensure continued steady-state fighter capabilities,” a Kadena press release said.

“Together, the diverse array of fighters, alongside joint and allied forces, strengthen operational readiness to defend Japan while ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific through a robust presence of dynamic fighter aircraft,” it said.

The F-22 itself is slated for retirement in about a decade—not because of structural limits but because its stealth capabilities will not be up to penetrating adversary air defenses by that point. Its planned successor is the NGAD.

Lt. Col. Shaun Loomis, 480th commander, said his Airmen are looking forward to “training and operating in this uniquely complex and strategically vital region. Additionally, we are grateful for the opportunity to experience day-to-day life and local culture here in Okinawa.”

The need to pull F-16s from Spangdahlem—at a time when Russian forces are engaged in air combat in nearby Ukraine—is a “symptom” that the Air Force has been underfunded too long to maintain adequate forces, retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, head of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said in November.

The Air Force has not been “adequately funded to recapitalize its forces in a timely fashion,” he said in an interview. The service will increasingly find it doesn’t have “the forces available to be forward” and “unable to contribute its portion of what’s required by our National Security and Defense strategies.”

Space Force Launches 6th New GPS III Satellite into Orbit

Jan. 18, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The U.S. Space Force and SpaceX successfully launched the sixth GPS III satellite into orbit Jan. 18, bolstering the crucial position, navigation, and timing constellation.

Launching from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station’s Space Launch Complex-40 at 7:24 a.m. Eastern, the satellite rode a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket into space. The Falcon 9’s first-stage booster was successfully recovered and will be refurbished for another launch, continuing a reuse process the Space Force started using with the launch of the fifth GPS III satellite in June 2021.

“With the GPS III [Space Vehicle] 06 launch, GPS has accomplished another step towards Positioning, Navigation, and Timing’s overall mission of modernizing capabilities for our civilian and military users while maintaining the performance and resiliency of our existing architecture,” said Cordell DeLaPena Jr., program executive officer for military communications and PNT, in a statement. “I am extremely proud of the work GPS’s teams and collaborators have done to bring our satellite infrastructure closer to a new age of robust and highly accurate signals.”

Lockheed Martin built the satellite, which will ultimately be part of a 10-satellite series. Lockheed said the new satellites are three times more accruate and up to eight times harder to jam compared to second-generation GPS satellites.

Flying in mid-Earth orbit, the new satellite, which was named after famed aviator Amelia Earhart, will go through about two weeks of tests and a few months of monitoring before beginning operational use, joining the constellation of 31 satellites that currently make up the Global Positioning System. The overall GPS system consists of GPS IIR, IIR-M, IIF, and GPS III space vehicles, and this sixth GPS III satellite will replace an aging IIR unit.

“This was a textbook launch, reflecting a highly professional, experienced team executing well-honed procedures and the results speak for themselves,” Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy Jr., program executive officer for SSC’s Assured Access to Space effort and commander of Space Launch Delta 45, said in a statement. “Working side-by-side with our launch service provider and space vehicle partner to meet the mission need on-time and with precision is our normal ops. And today’s mission supports not only our global warfighters but people all over the world in every facet of life.”

SpaceX Space Force GPS III launch — GPS III-6 separates from the Falcon 9 upper stage approximately 89 minutes after launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, at 7:24 a.m. EST, Jan. 18. Screen shot from SpaceX launch livestream

The Jan. 18 launch comes almost exactly 19 months after the launch of the fifth GPS III satellite—the longest gap between GPS launches since the current Block III satellites started heading to space in 2018. It also came just days after a Jan. 15 mission, where a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket carried the USSF-67 mission into orbit. That launch included two Space Force satellites—the Continuous Broadcast Augmenting SATCOM (CBAS)-2 satellite and the Long-Duration Propulsive ESPA (LDPE)-3A satellite, which included five different Space Force payloads.

Dozens more launches from Space Force facilities are planned in the coming year, but it will be a while before the seventh GPS III satellite heads to space—Space Systems Command announced in May 2022 that it was targeting 2024 for that launch.

As of August 2022, the seventh, eighth, and ninth GPS III satellites have all been declared “Available for Launch,” with the last of those space vehicles scheduled for launch in late 2025.

Report: Air Force Must Invest in Resilient Basing. Here Are Some Cost-Effective Ways

Jan. 17, 2023 | By Christopher Prawdzik

Passive defenses—including hardened aircraft shelters, asset dispersal, prepositioned munitions and the ability to rapidly repair runways—are the most cost-effective air base defense investments, according to a new RAND Corporation report. However, the Air Force should invest in a multifaceted combination of active and passive defenses to fend off future threats from China and Russia, the report’s authors argue.

“Increasingly aggressive actions by China and Russia toward their neighbors have shifted the attitudes of defense policy makers about both aggressors over the past two decades,” the report states. “Not only is there a growing consensus that China and Russia represent significant threats to U.S. interests, but there are also growing calls for actions to counter the threats.”

The report notes that among Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s list of seven operational imperatives unveiled in 2022 is a call for “resilient basing.” That effort is closely tied to the service’s Agile Combat Employment concept, in which small teams of Airmen and aircraft disperse to remote, austere, or small locations and can move or operate quickly.

RAND explored many ACE alternatives and their cost-effectiveness alongside differing analyses of threats unique to China and Russia, using four input categories that included a variety of vectors, options, and available data. That data was fed through seven exclusive RAND models to generate four output categories.

One model noted in the report is the Theater Air Base Vulnerability Assessment Model (TAB-VAM), which analyzes the impact of an air base attack. This includes critical asset damage to structures, personnel, and equipment, but it also considers uncertainty, as the attack vector is up to the adversary.

“This approach hedges against assessing the attack strategy incorrectly and becomes critical when predicting the impacts of threat mitigations because an adaptive adversary can shift to a new attack vector using new investments made by the defender,” the report states.

RAND’S Theater Air Base Resiliency Optimization Model (TAB-ROM) then analyzes the cost-effectiveness of mitigation options, focusing on the most promising choices.

“To avoid having to calculate the effects of billions of possibilities (which might take years for TAB-ROM to compute), the model uses a genetic algorithm—a search method inspired by Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection—to find the fittest … investments,” the report states. “The most viable options yield the highest sortie rates—or numbers of sorties per day—at the lowest costs.”

Air base resilience is also dependent on a keen understanding of individual threats and having a well-structured and continuous protection investment. These can differ based on the analysis of the threat.

For example, the report notes that China’s strategy would likely center on preemptive surprise, with their formidable medium-range DF-21 and intermediate range DF-26 ballistic missiles, along with their long-range CJ-20 bomber-launched arsenal.

“Early in a conflict, China could strike U.S. and partner-nation air bases, air and missile defense systems, and command centers with large ballistic and cruise missile raids,” the report states. “The missiles and their submunitions could be optimized for attacking runways or destroying aircraft on parking ramps.”

On the other hand, the report notes that the Russian threat to European U.S. bases and NATO allies is a bit different—Russia, the authors theorize, would likely use a combination of missiles and manned aircraft, along with possible nuclear weapons.

“Although the Russian missile force is smaller and less advanced than its Chinese counterpart, the Russian force still represents a threat to NATO air operations,” the report states, noting Russia’s efforts to destroy Ukrainian airfields during its ongoing invasion. “Also, while Russia has expended a considerable portion of its missile inventory in the Ukraine conflict, Russia’s potential long-range attack capability—including KH-101 cruise missiles, RS-26 ballistic missiles, and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles—could threaten NATO bases throughout the region.”

Still, the report notes advantages held by the United States and NATO allies. These include the large number of hardened and very accessible western European airfields and facilities.

“The primary problem for NATO,” the report suggests, “is that larger U.S. and allied aircraft—such as tankers; bombers; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms—would need to operate from more-remote bases to avoid the worst of the Russian threats.”

Such inputs, and many more, are crucial to the calculations generated by RAND’s multiple models and determining the cost-effectiveness of those responses.

“If the budget is $100 million, $500 million, or any specified level, TAB-ROM estimates the sortie rates that can be generated, complete with breakdowns of what mitigations to buy and where to put them,” the report states. “This toolkit of models has been invaluable in providing a structured and capable approach for addressing the complex problem of air base resiliency against future threats.”

The report notes, however, that ACE should not be the lone resilient basing investment, and shifting to a more agile and dispersed force can present its own set of challenges—two in particular.

“First, to generate sorties, an air base must bring together multiple assets, including maintenance personnel, functional aircraft, sufficient fuel, and an operational runway,” the report states, emphasizing that the loss of a single such asset could critically hinder a response. “Second, although the dispersal of aircraft across bases might be key to complicating adversary attacks and improving theater-wide resilience, how widely the Air Force can disperse can be limited by support asset requirements.”

CENTCOM Sees Success with Integrated Anti-Drone and Missile Defenses

Jan. 17, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

U.S. Central Command is making progress tying together air, missile, and drone defenses—but there’s still more to be done to achieve “single-pane-of-glass” integration, officials say.

Fully integrating sensors and defenses will demand further innovations, both in integrating new technologies and repurposing existing ones, said CENTCOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Gregory M. Guillot in a virtual discussion Jan. 17 hosted by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.

“What I focus on … is advocating for a layered, integrated air and missile defense capability, from the upper tier all the way down to counter-small UAS—a quadcopter flying 50 to 100 feet off the ground at 10 or 20 miles an hour—and everything in between,” Guillot said.

Air Forces Central commander Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich is responsible for ballistic missile defense and manned air defense in the CENTCOM region, Guillot noted. Individual base commanders are responsible for smaller drones, and Grynkewich and base commanders share responsibility for larger drones.

With so many commanders tasked with tracking airborne threats, the goal has been to unite and share data, Guillot said.

“The way we look to that … is to bring all these different systems that give a commander situational awareness in the missile defense area onto a single pane of glass,” Guillot explained. “And we’re not there yet. We used to be in three or four, maybe five or more buildings on a base with different systems separated. We now have all of the systems in one room—now sometimes it’s on five or six different screens—but all the feeds are at least coming into one room so that the commander can make timely decisions.

“We’re working to innovate to get it all into one pane of glass [on which] everybody can share all their information.”

Innovation has become a focus for CENTCOM leaders, driven by commander Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla and a need to do more with less, given that U.S. military strategy and resources have shifted away from the region. And while that push has included experimentation with low-cost drones through the Air Force’s Task Force 99, it’s also required responses to counter Iranian-backed militias, which have launched attacks using explosives strapped to low-cost commercial drones.

“If you’ve got an Amazon card and access to a hand grenade, you’ve now got an over-the-horizon weapon capability,” said Rear Adm. Curt Renshaw, director of operations for CENTCOM.

Guillot said such weapons pose a “daily threat.” In September, a USAF F-15 shot down an Iranian drone believed to be a threat to U.S. forces in Iraq.

Moving forward, Guillot said, the goal is to ensure commanders have the time and options needed to match their response to the threat.

“I think I would always want more sensing—not necessarily better sensing, and I wouldn’t say that it’s a vulnerability in any way. We have a lot a lot of good sensors,” Guillot said. “But the earlier and the further out you can sense anything gives you more time and more decision space to find the right asset to shoot it down, whether it’s an air-to-air fighter, all the way down to a kinetic or a non-kinetic capability at a base.”

Specifically for the counter-UAS mission, officials are trying to increase sensing by using systems already in the region.

“We’re looking at how do you tune radars to see smaller, slower? And how do you tune these systems to get after the smaller radar cross section type of capabilities at further distances?” said Army Maj. Gen. Sean A. Gainey, director of the Joint C-UAS Office.

More sensing will also come from tying more sensors together to present a unified view to commanders, Guillot said.

“We’re doing a really good job of tying everything from AWACS radars to ground-based radars to very small systems that are designed only for the counter-UAS roles, tying them all into that single pane of glass that I mentioned,” Guillot said.

CENTCOM has experimental technologies like microwave and directed energy weapons to counter UAS threats, and they are repurposing existing systems, such as the Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar (C-RAM) Intercept.

With the push to innovate and expand capabilities, CENTCOM is helping to lead the way on a new approach to counter-UAS, Gainey said.

“You can’t look at this fight as a counter-UAS fight and as an integrated air and missile defense fight,” Gainey said. “You’ve got to look at it holistically as an integrated air and missile defense fight.”