USAF Analysis: China Hopes The US Can’t Afford Enough B-21s to Make A Difference

April 28, 2023 | By David Roza

In the months following the reveal of Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider in December, several publications affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party or its People’s Liberation Army published articles downplaying the aircraft’s viability, saying the U.S. cannot afford enough of the bombers to make a difference in a possible conflict with China.

And while that view may not represent a consensus within the PLA, it does give U.S. policymakers a hint of how China views one of the cornerstones of future U.S. airpower.

“We could certainly change their calculations and force the optimists to have to come up with a better argument if we don’t meet their expectations and produce the B-21 in large numbers,” Derek Solen, a senior researcher for Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “They would really have to sit down and assess the B-21’s capabilities and whether they can counter it.”

In a recent study for CASI, Solen analyzed media reactions within China to the B-21’s unveiling. One of the more dismissive analyses appeared in the global military section of Liberation Army News, which Solen described as “the mouthpiece” of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission.

The writers argued the B-21 may be “strategic blackmail,” meaning the bomber’s main purpose is to force opponents to devote inordinate resources toward developing countermeasures for it. The writers claimed that the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber was also intended to “drain the Soviet Union’s military and economic strength.”

Indeed, as the B-2 approached production in the late 1980s, the aircraft was expected to create dilemmas for Soviet military planners, though Solen said that was likely a secondary effect of the B-2’s design rather than its primary purpose.

“How will the Soviets respond to the U.S. stealth challenge?” wrote one observer in the 1989 edition of the journal International Security. “Will the Soviets divert substantial resources to air defense to counter stealthy air vehicles?”

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Congress reduced the purchase of the B-2 from 132 aircraft to 75 to just 21. Three decades later, the B-21 is expected to cost about $660 million each, and Air Force officials hope to buy 100 copies. The Liberation Army News writers predicted the B-21 program would not achieve economies of scale, due to its “astonishing” total cost—and therefore it would be difficult to achieve any “strategic effect.”

Solen found other publications made similar assessments. An article published in the military weekly section of China Youth Daily said the U.S. Air Force may not have the budget to afford many B-21s and would ultimately “walk in the trail of the B-2.” The writers added that the B-21 would also have difficulty “when facing a great power possessing a relatively perfect counter-stealth sensor network and air defense system … without being detected and intercepted.”

A third publication, Chinese National Defense News, wrote that the B-21’s stealth capabilities are not advanced enough to infiltrate modern radar systems and the U.S. Air Force would not be able to afford enough of them.

A fourth publication did differ from the other three in taking a more cautious position. The science and technology section of Chinese National Defense News tends to eschew “political messages in order to introduce foreign technological advances,” Solen wrote.

The author, Xin Qizhi, wrote that the B-21’s main advantage over the B-2 is that the Air Force can afford more of them, and Xin urged readers not to treat the threat lightly.

“Overall, all the authors besides Xin expressed doubt that enough B-21 bombers will be acquired to compensate for their expected losses due to advances in radar,” Solen wrote. “The question that this ostensible difference raises is which side represents the prevalent opinion in the PLA.”

B21 — The unveiling of the new B-21 bomber was staged to keep many of its innovations under wraps, but more than 34 years of technological advances since the B-2’s 1988 rollout were clearly in evidence.

Critical Self Assessments

The Chinese Communist Party does not tolerate free speech, so even if the B-21 worried PLA officials, would non-Chinese researchers be able to access that information? They might be able to: RAND senior international defense researcher Mark Cozad said that, like most professional militaries, the PLA conducts critical self-assessments that can be found in academic military publications or technical journals.

“There is a lot you can find out, at least in terms of what they think about themselves,” said Cozad, who was the lead author on a RAND report published earlier this year about Chinese perspectives on the military balance between the U.S. and PLA. “And I think in most respects, they’re very realistic. They definitely don’t have a hard time criticizing themselves.”

Just like in U.S. military journals, those publications may not include sensitive details on platforms or capabilities. In the PLA, they also tend to focus on operational concepts and steer clear of broader defense policy issues that are decided by high-level party leadership. But they do analyze lingering issues affecting the PLA and options for what to do about them.

“These are the things that the PLA is telling themselves about themselves,” Cozad explained. “You’ll see the discussion of the problem, you’ll see proposed policies or programs, and you’ll see how those things evolve over time.”

Those nuanced discussions may not appear in publications like Liberation Army News, which tend to produce propaganda, Cozad said. Still, even propaganda can provide helpful information.

“Just because it’s crafted doesn’t mean that the people who are crafting it don’t believe what they are saying,” Solen said. “And just because someone like Xin, who’s sounding a different note, is saying the thing that we kind of want to hear doesn’t mean that he’s a truth-teller.”

Indeed, American airpower policy experts are also arguing the Air Force needs to up its proposed production rate of B-21s to provide the long-range power projection necessary to deter China.

Doubling the bomber’s production rates and reducing unit costs “would require difficult force structure trades” if the Air Force budget remains static, wrote Dr. Christopher J. Bowie, non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, in a report published March 10.

“The Air Force needs to field more long-range bombers, which appear to offer significantly greater utility and reduced basing vulnerability compared to short-range fighters,” Bowie wrote, arguing for a 3:1 fighter-bomber ratio similar to those seen in the 1950s and 1960s, as opposed to the 15:1 ratio that exists today. Such a shift would require retiring legacy fighters more quickly, a task the Air Force has struggled with in the past.

“If the United States continues on its current course, it could end up with a force ill-suited to the challenges posed by China,” Bowie warned.

‘Let’s Exploit That’

Despite optimistic propaganda, PLA planners may take a pessimistic view of the B-21 simply because that is the nature of many military professionals.

“In the military, more often than not, people are worst-case thinkers,” Solen said. “If America is advertising a bomber with these capabilities, the prudent thing to do is assume that it’s all true.”

And if it is true, then the Air Force can give the PLA headaches by buying a large number of B-21s, as well as maintaining the service’s other advantages over the PLA.

“You have to continue to innovate, because these guys are very serious about improving their military capabilities,” Solen said. “If the stated capabilities of the B-21 are the case, then it’s an incredible platform. Let’s not throw that away. Let’s exploit that to its fullest.”

And in the meantime, more analysis like Solen’s could give planners a better sense of what PLA officials worry about in regards to the U.S. military.

“More of that work is really needed,” Cozad said. “What I think would be helpful for a lot of planners is to understand how the adversary looks at your weapons system, whether it’s correct or not.”

If the adversary’s perception is correct, it gives planners a realistic sense of what they might expect in terms of countermeasures. If it’s not, it still could provide helpful information as the military continues to learn more about China after focusing on counterinsurgency conflicts the past 20 years.

“From a bureaucratic, big government, national security complex perspective, we’ve spent a relatively limited amount of time thinking about China,” Cozad said. “You’re learning a new target in essence: going back to the basics, looking at the numbers, the organizations, the people, the general history, and I don’t think it is always the first thing that comes to mind to study how people think about themselves, how do they think about us? … Eventually this will become a much more mature effort.”

Department of the Air Force Saw Dramatic Rise in Sexual Assault Reports in 2022

April 27, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force and the Space Force had a significant increase in reports of sexual assault last year, according to figures released April 27.

For fiscal 2022, the Department of the Air Force had the largest annual increase in the history of its Sexual Assault Prevention and Response (SAPR) program, which was created more than a decade ago to tackle the chronic issue of sexual assault and harassment in the military.

“Reports increased by 13 percent in FY 2022, the highest recorded value in the history of the DAF SAPR program,” Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall wrote in a memo to DOD leadership.

Overall, reports of sexual assault were up about 1 percent across the military—making the DAF an outlier. Air Force and Space Force numbers are counted together as a military department, unlike the other services.

“These increases in reporting demonstrate that while survivors are more willing to come forward, too many incidents are still occurring,” Kendall wrote. “This is unacceptable.”

Kendall’s letter was released as part of the Fiscal Year 2022 Department of Defense Annual Report on Sexual Assault in the Military.

According to the DOD, for every 1,000 Airmen and Guardians, 5.4 individuals reported a sexual assault in fiscal 2022, up from 4.6 in 2021, and 2.9 a decade ago. Reporting standards have varied over the years, however, and the services have sought to make sexual assault easier to report by decreasing stigma and adverse actions against those who report incidents.

Across the military, the vast majority of victims are women—79 percent. Most of the investigation subjects are male—80 percent.

The congressionally-required report contains reporting data, military justice case outcomes, and updates on the DOD’s efforts to prevent and respond to sexual assault. It does not examine the prevalence of sexual assault in the military, which the DOD “assesses via scientific survey and allows the Department to better understand the full scope of the problem.”

The Air Force’s increase is the highest in percentage among the services. In terms of total numbers, DOD recorded 1,928 reports of sexual assault in the Air Force in fiscal 2022. There were 329 investigations that were considered for possible action by a commander, and 218 were deemed as having evidence to support commander action, including 70 that led to the initiation of sexual assault-related court-martial charges, according to DOD data. (There were three additional “non-sexual assault” court-martial cases stemming from reports.)

Some victims make a restricted report—such as to victim advocates, sexual assault response coordinators, or healthcare providers—to enable confidential access to care and services.

“These reports are not referred for investigation and do not involve review by command authorities,” the Department of Defense notes in its report. “Given the desire for confidentiality, the victim is not asked to provide extensive details about the sexual assault.” Out of 1,928 reports, the Air Force had 864 that were restricted.

In 2022, the Department of Air Force changed its policies to make coming forward easier, including allowing for convalescent leave for Airmen and Guardians who report sexual assault and a new Safe-to-Report policy for service members or civilian workers to lessen fears of retaliation or negative impacts on their careers.

“The DAF aims to close the gap between prevalence and reporting while simultaneously working to decease prevalence of sexual violence,” Kendall wrote.

Overall, the DOD is relying more on nonjudicial punishments, though some advocates and lawmakers have pushed to hand over the cases to an independent office.

“That change was largely due to the perception that when a military commander makes these prosecution decisions, that they are not expert attorneys in these cases,” Dr. Nate Galbreath, deputy director of the Sexual Assault and Prevention and Response Office, told reporters.

Without an independent office, the DOD says it is working to improve its current team.

“The Department will also continue its efforts to professionalize the sexual assault response workforce, hire a dedicated integrated prevention workforce, and further assess the prevalence of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the force,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

Air Force Will Look at CV-22, New Army Helicopter for Long-Range Combat Search and Rescue

April 27, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force will consider the Army’s recently-selected Bell V-280 Valor tiltrotor aircraft as a possible solution to its long-range combat rescue helicopter needs—but the service will also look into using CV-22s and other new aircraft, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told the House Armed Services Committee on April 27.

Brown, testifying on the fiscal 2024 budget request, was asked if the Air Force, which has purchased all the CV-22 Ospreys it plans to buy, would consider buying more to use for combat rescue in the Indo-Pacific, where long ranges challenge the new HH-60W Jolly Green IIs. The Air Force has cut its planned buy of HH-60Ws from 108 to 85 because they can only meet requirements in the European and Middle East theaters, USAF officials have said.

“I don’t see us actually going to additional CV-22s or opening back [up]” production, Brown said. “Once you shut down the production line, it’s very expensive to start back up. And oh, by the way, it’s technology that’s somewhat dated.”

The prototype joint-service V-22 rolled out in 1985 but the Marine Corps MV-22 did not enter service until 2007, having endured a lengthy and problematic development program. The Air Force declared the CV-22 variant operational in 2009. The Navy declared initial operational capability with its own unique variant of the Osprey, called the CMV-22, in February. The variant has been adapted to meet the Navy’s need for ship-to-shore logistics, replacing the venerable C-2 Greyhound.

Brown said the Air Force would evaluate the V-280, which won the Army’s Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) competition, and vehicles from “other industry partners…[who are] actually going down this path as well.”

Brown did not specify those other options, but the Sikorsky-Boeing Defiant co-axial helicopter which lost the FLRAA, is available, and leaders such as Air Combat Command chief Gen. Mark Kelly have suggested an outgrowth of the service’s Agility Prime “flying car” technology as a possible fix.

In the interim, Brown suggested the CV-22 could be a solution for long-range combat rescue, as well as a resupply aircraft in the service’s new Agile Combat Employment concept, which will distribute small groups of aircraft and Airmen to remote or austere locations from central “hubs.”

“These are the kinds of things we’re looking at as an Air Force, not only for what the CV-22 is able to do for … hostage rescue but also for personnel recovery and other aspects of logistics in the Indo-Pacific,” Brown said.

Air Combat Command has stressed in recent months that it has no plans to claim Special Operations Command CV-22s to carry out the long-range combat rescue helicopter mission.

Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, told the Senate Armed Services airland panel on April 26 that 85 HH-60Ws “is more than sufficient” to do the combat rescue helicopter mission.

“There’s a big distinction in this portfolio between combat search and rescue and personnel recovery,” he added. “There are literally thousands of platforms in the Department of Defense that can do personnel recovery.”

The HH-60W fleet “is for something very specific. It was purchased for [the] Iraq and Afghanistan [theaters]. It is not particularly helpful in the Chinese AOR” or area of operations, Moore said.

Lt. Gen. James Slife, deputy chief of staff for operations, added to the SASC panel that the Air Force still regards the recovery of downed Airmen a “moral imperative.”

Recalling the effort to save “Bat 21” in Vietnam, Slife said, “the challenge is … no matter how dedicated you are, if you’re not in a platform that’s survivable to the threat environment, you end up losing more people” with an attempted recovery than were downed in the first place.

“We’re actively looking at non-traditional ways in order to fulfill that moral imperative,” Slife added. “… But until we can come to a definitive answer on that. I think the one thing we can say is, helicopters [that fly at 150 knots, refueled by C-130s] is probably not the answer in our most stressing scenarios.”

The 85 HH-60Ws can bridge the gap “until we can develop a more suitable solution for a contested environment,” he said.

Bell Textron won the Army’s $1.3 billion contract for the Valor in December 2022, and the Sikorsky-Boeing team’s subsequent protest of the choice was denied in April. Prototype V-280 aircraft will be fabricated over the next 19 months. Army officials said the Valor was selected as the “best value” proposal across considerations of performance, cost, and schedule.

The FLRAA is potentially worth up to $70 billion, as it will largely replace the Army’s aging fleet of UH-60 Blackhawks.

The Air Force has traditionally met its much smaller need for helicopters by tacking on to Army utility helo programs like the UH-60 and before that, the UH-1. However, the service did select the Boeing MH-139 Gray Wolf, based on the Leonardo AW139, as its VIP/missile field support helicopter.

The Army is slated to get its first Valor prototype in 2025 and achieve initial operational capability circa 2030.

New Wing at Davis-Monthan Will Include MC-130s, ‘Light Attack‘ CSAF Says

April 27, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Editor’s Note: This story was updated April 28 after the Air Force clarified which aircraft will be part of the 492nd Power Projection Wing.

The Special Operations “Power Projection Wing” planned for Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., will include MC-130s and “light attack” aircraft—probably the new Sky Wardens—Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told Congress on April 27.

The new mix of Air Force Special Operations Command aircraft will replace the A-10s now based at Davis-Monthan as they are retired in coming years.

The Air Force cited plans for the 492nd Power Projection Wing in its 2024 budget request and subsequently confirmed those plans to Air & Space Forces Magazine. But exactly which aircraft would be included was not clear until now.

Asked by Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to provide more details, Brown said the Power Projection Wing would be “bringing in our MC-130s [and] light attack aircraft.”

The MC-130 is a tanker/mobility aircraft, used by Special Operations Forces for covert day, night, and adverse weather infiltration, exfiltration, and resupply. Based on the Air Tractor AT-802 crop duster, the heavily modified Sky Warden won the Armed Overwatch competition. The aircraft will replace Air Force Special Operations Command’s aging fleet of U-28A Draco ISR aircraft and augment remotely piloted MQ-9 Reaper drones when they reach initial operational capability in 2026.

Also headed to Davis-Monthan are new EC-37 Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft and HH-60W Jolly Green II search and rescue helicopters.

“Their access to the ranges that are there in Arizona and in the western United States will increase their training opportunity,” Brown said of all the new aircraft.

Brown pledged the Air Force would work with local stakeholders and base officials to manage the flow of new Airmen to Davis-Monthan as the new wing stands up.

Gallego was one of four Arizona lawmakers—including Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.)—to release a joint letter earlier this month saying they were “encouraged by the Air Force’s intention to bring new, durable flying missions” to Davis-Monthan and urging Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall to expand efforts to keep the local community informed.

Kendall did that in an April 19-20 visit to Davis-Monthan. A new Site Activation Task Force has already convened to consider what military construction and related changes might be needed at the base.

Why Can’t They Declassify the Space Force? Sorry. That’s Classified.

April 27, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

A year after the Department of Defense was to report to Congress on whether it could declassify more Space Force programs, lawmakers are still waiting. Pentagon officials say only that they’re working the issue.

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) asked Assistant Secretary of Defense for Spacy Policy John Plumb on April 26 about progress on a report required by the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, which told DOD to review every Space Force program and determine which could be moved to a lower classification level and which could be moved into the open. The report was due April 26, 2022, but it’s not yet completed.

Plumb declined to offer details.

“On the Space Force capabilities and classification, we might better save that for the classified session,” Plumb said. “We are working hard on it and I’m working with your team on this. As you know, there is a [Secretary of the Air Force] reform effort and I have been loath to get ahead of that.”

The following day, on April 27, Lamborn asked Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall how declassification efforts are progressing.

“The major effort that we’ve done recently on that is called Special Access Programs, where the Air Force, in particular, has a great many compartments and it’s hard to move across them,” Kendall said. “The work we were doing on the Operational Imperatives, we had to go do an extensive amount of bureaucratic work to allow people just to talk to each other so they could share information.”

Kendall offered no update on declassifying any specific Space Force programs. But he acknowledged that “we just saw a glaring example, a very visible example of what happens when you don’t do that, what kind of things can get out,” referring to the recent arrest and ongoing investigation over alleged leaks of classified documents spread via online chat rooms.

“We do need to protect our sensitive information, Kendall said. “So this is not a simple problem. It has a lot of different dimensions and we’re trying to attack all of them.”

The push to declassify elements of the military space program was first championed by then-Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John E. Hyten and quickly taken up by the first Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, both of whom said classification made it difficult to make clear to the public why the United States needed a Space Force in the first place. Others advocates argue that over-classification hurts deterrence and hampers international and inter-agency cooperation.

Kendall agreed, suggesting there are “things where we can work with our partners, work with commercial industry much more effectively, if we can declassify.”

Speaking with reporters at the AFA Warfare Symposium in early March, Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said he was “comfortable” with current classification and the level of public disclosure, particularly when it comes to deterring threats in space.

“I think we have the ability to show enough capability, as I mentioned, through resiliency—in other words, to disincentivize the attacks,” Saltzman said. “The idea of reveal and conceal, that’s almost a way of saying if an adversary is not paying attention to you, are they deterred by you? You can talk yourself into a lot of circles about, ‘If I don’t know there’s a capability, will that deter me from something?’ That’s not how we need to talk about deterrence in space.”

The Future Home of U.S. Space Command

ILamborn also asked Kendall to make the case for keeping the headquarters of U.S. Space Command at Peterson Space Force Base, Colo., rather than relocating it to Redstone Arsenal, Ala.

“I understand that the command is months away from achieving full operational capability at Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado Springs,” Lamborn said. “This means that we will be moving backwards in our efforts to organize space as a warfighting domain if we move the command away from Colorado Springs, wherever it might be moved to, because moving would delay full operational capability by four to six years.”

Kendall, whose oversight does not directly include U.S. Space Command, but who does have jurisdiction over the Space Force Guardians who make up more than 90 percent of the command’s personnel, offered no indication of a preference. “We’re trying to take into consideration all possible factors that will affect final decision,” he said.

The fight over SPACECOM’s permanent headquarters is now in its fourth year. The selection of Redstone Arsenal in January 2021 sparked investigations by the Government Accountability Office and the DOD Inspector General over allegations of political bias. Former President Donald J. Trump took credit for “single-handedly” choosing Redstone, but both the GAO and IG reports concluded that the decision was lawful. Alabama lawmakers on the committee repeatedly pushed Kendall to move forward and confirm the selection of Redstone as final.

“Twenty-seven months ago, the Air Force made the right decision to go with Huntsville, Ala.,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who was a central figure in re-establishing U.S. Space Command and the U.S. Space Force. “Twelve months ago the GAO and the DOD Inspector General affirmed that decision. There is only one state still protesting, and that state came in fifth in the competition. The political games must end. Your continued hand wringing is delaying SPACECOM’s full operational capability and undermining our ability to defend this nation. You need to end this charade and make that announcement soon.”

Northrop Says It’s ‘Premature’ For Australia to Buy the B-21—But Maybe Later

April 27, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Despite Australia’s recent revelation that it discussed buying B-21 bombers from the U.S.—and decided against it—Northrop Grumman said such a move may still be “on the table.”

Australia’s just-released Defense Strategic Review stated that the defense ministry “has undertaken detailed discussions in Australia and the United States in relation to the B-21 Raider as a potential capability option for Australia,” although it didn’t disclose when these discussions took place.

“In light of our strategic circumstances and the approach to defense strategy and capability development outlined in this review, we do not consider the B-21 to be a suitable option for consideration for acquisition,” the report said.

However, Northrop Grumman chief executive officer and president Kathy Warden said the door may still be open to such an arrangement.

“It would be premature for us to be working with another government” on the B-21, given its current developmental status, Warden said in an April 27 earnings call.

“I think it’s important that there were discussions—ongoing ones,” about a B-21 sale or collaboration, she said, noting that this would have surprised her a few years ago.

Discussions and ties between Australia and the U.S. have ramped up over the past few years. In particular, the AUKUS agreement—which includes the United Kingdom—began with the goal of sharing nuclear-powered submarine technology but has expanded to other areas as well.

AUKUS “is going to change how those nations … work together more collaboratively, and I wouldn’t take it off the table in the long run, as other strategic capabilities become part of that dialog,” Warden said.

Given “where the B-21 is today, I think it appropriate that they did not count on it in their Defense Strategic Review,” Warden added.

Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the Australian review’s B-21 conclusion “was disappointing, but then there is plenty of time to revisit this in the future.” He added that Warden “is right, the Air Force hasn’t even accepted its first aircraft yet,” but said he did not believe “the books are closed on the option.”

In a statement, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III did not address the B-21 decision in the strategic review, specifically, but he hailed “Australia’s commitment to being at the forefront of incorporating new capabilities” for its military.

“It is the latest example of the pivotal role Australia plays in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific, including through participation in AUKUS and the Quad,” Austin said, noting that Australia is also planning to release its first ever National Defense Strategy in 2024.

While Australia won’t be pursuing the B-21 right now, Warden said Australia in February made a Foreign Military Sales request for more than $500 million worth of Northrop’s AARGM-ER (Advanced Anti-Radar Guided Missile, Extended Range), “a high-speed, long-range air-to-ground missile that provides counter air defense capability.” Australia is also pursuing long-range strike by buying Lockheed Martin’s Long-Range Anti-Shipping Missile, or LRASM; a complement to its inventory of the similar Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM-ER).

Still Waiting on First Flight

While Warden addressed Australia’s interest in the B-21, she offered no new details on the aircraft’s progress, only saying it is expected to fly “this year,” and that the company expects the first low-rate initial production contract award by the end of the year.

At the B-21’s rollout in December 2022, Air Force and program officials hinted that they expected the bomber’s first flight to take place in the middle of 2023, after several months of outside engine runs and taxi tests.

But an Air Force spokeswoman said the service has not officially pegged “mid year” as the target date.

“We’ve been saying ‘in 2023,’” the spokeswoman said.

The first flight of the B-2 bomber followed its rollout by nine months, and USAF officials have said privately they expected the B-21 to beat that.

There have been several slips to the B-21’s expected first flight. Former Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Seve Wilson said in 2019 he expected first flight in 2021; former B-21 program executive officer and head of the Rapid Capabilities Office Randall Walden predicted in late 2021 that first flight would occur “mid-2022.” That later gave way to the service announcing the rollout would take place “by the end” of 2022.

Warden said the B-21 program, like Northrop’s other aeronautics projects, has been affected by labor cost increases and inflation, and while inflation may moderate, labor costs, once elevated, don’t tend to come down. On a January earnings call, she suggested these conditions would affect profitability on the first five aircraft, which are being built under a fixed-price contract.

On the April call, Warden said the inflation estimates used in 2015, when Northrop successfully bid for the B-21, were running about two percent, and the company made its offer based on the Federal Reserve’s successful efforts at managing inflation close to that figure.

She said Northrop is working with the government on getting some relief from those fixed-price limits, using legislatively-approved methods for helping contractors who’ve taken big program hits due to high inflation, but no agreements have been reached.

In addition to inflation, Warden said Northrop is working with the government on expanding production of munitions, a high priority in recent months.

In particular, Northrop has expanded a facility at the Alleghany Ballistic Laboratory in W.V., which Warden called a “factory of the future,” which will support the production of up to 600 strike missiles per year, including AARGM-ER, GMLRS, TOW, Hellfire, and Precision Strike Missile. The company is also opening a hypersonics design and development laboratory and production facility in Elkton, Md. this summer, Warden said, where it will work on the engine for the Raytheon-led Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) program and other programs.

Air Force Suspends Leaders of Unit Involved in Classified Document Leak

April 26, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force has suspended leaders of the Massachusetts Air National Guard unit involved in the leak of a trove of classified documents, the service said April 26.

The move came on the order of the 102nd Intelligence Wing commander at Otis Air National Guard Base, Mass., the Air Force said. The two leaders, the commander of the 102nd Intelligence Support Squadron and an administrative commander, have also lost access to classified information and systems. One of the unit’s members, Airman 1st Class Jack Teixeira, 21, has been charged with leaking scores of classified documents via online chat rooms on Discord.

“Commanders are taking appropriate action as information becomes available,” Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek told Air & Space Forces Magazine. The 102nd Intelligence Wing’s website identifies its commander as Col. Sean D. Riley. The wing has had its intelligence duties temporarily reassigned to other units as the Air Force investigates the leaks. Stefanek did not identify the squadron commander or administrative commander by name.

“This means that both the squadron’s state Air National Guard operational commander and current federal orders administrative commander have been suspended pending completion of the Department of the Air Force Inspector General Investigation,” Stefanek said. She also noted the “suspensions are temporary pending further investigation.”

According to its website, the 102nd Intelligence Support Squadron is comprised of more than 100 service members, civilians, and contractors.

“The 102nd ISS provides intelligence systems maintenance, integration, and operations for the AN/GSQ-272 SENTINEL weapon system, as part of the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System (AF-DCGS) Enterprise, enabling near real-time Collection, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (CPED) of fused intelligence to warfighters, combatant commanders, and the larger intelligence community,” the squadron’s website states.

The Pentagon and Air Force have each launched a broad review of the handling of classified documents, and some information as already been restricted. Additionally, the Department of Justice is investigating the matter. Teixeira was arrested by the FBI on April 13 and has been charged with violating the Espionage Act.

“Obviously in this case, this process fell apart,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told lawmakers April 18. “We have a process of looking at accountability, not only from a criminal standpoint for the individual but also as we look at the organization itself. We’re going to take a look at our overall processes across the Department of the Air Force.”

Days from Retirement, Hinote Warns That Air Force Modernization ‘Could Come Off the Rails’

April 26, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Until the Air Force can make the changes it wants in the fiscal 2024 budget and beyond, it isn’t a force “that wins,” Air Force Futures director Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote warned the Senate Armed Services airland subcommittee—and without action, the service’s hoped-for transformation could “fall off the rails.”

Hinote, presenting his final testimony in Congress before capping a 35-year career, said the Air Force is at an inflection point and must break from prioritizing “fight tonight” forces to invest in future capabilities. Until that happens, USAF risks losing a peer fight, he said.

In the April 26 hearing, Hinote said he feels a “sense of urgency to push the changes that we need.”

“For too long, we have privileged current risk at the expense of future risk,” Hinote said, adding that too often that future risk is treated as theoretical, rather than a hard-nosed appraisal of the threat.

“What it really means is that we are not handing off ‘an Air Force that wins’ to the next generation,” he said. “I’m not OK with that. And I know you aren’t, either.”

Hinote said the budget now before Congress “helps us get to the change that we need. It’s not perfect—no budget is—but due to the leadership of Secretary [Frank] Kendall and Gen. [Charles Q.] Brown, we are seeing real progress in our operational imperatives and force design.”

While many of the headlines around the budget have focused on its divestment of older, less capable platforms, Hinote said it goes well beyond that.

“There is real and transformational change in this budget,” Hinote said. “We are shifting major resources to the new capabilities that will be used in new ways. For years, we have needed a change-oriented budget. This is it.”

As the leader of Air Force Futures, Hinote noted his organization’s role “is to be the voice of tomorrow’s Airmen, to advocate for the capabilities and concepts the next generation of leaders will need to be successful.” To get there, “we will have to change, and change is hard,” he said.

Wargaming various future force structures has been a staple of his efforts for several years, Hinote said, and the systems and organizational changes USAF is implementing are the only way to win, he said. These include Collaborative Combat Aircraft, future air superiority capabilities, and Agile Combat Employment, he specifically noted.

More generally, he pointed out that serving under three different presidential administrations, “I found it remarkable that they arrived at three common conclusions”:

China “is the primary challenge”

The mission is to deter, and deterrence rests on “being ready to fight and win”

Change is necessary to keep up with the threat

China, he added, is “a worthy adversary” and its rapidly-advancing military capabilities must be taken seriously.

Asked by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) what he wants to “get off his chest” before leaving the service, Hinote said “I’ve watched this … story unfold, and we’ve known we needed a change for many, many years, and it feels like we’re finally—maybe—getting to a pivot point right now.

“That’s exciting, but it’s also scary, because it could come off the rails right away. We don’t want that, so, I’m cautiously optimistic and I’ll be cheering from the sidelines,“ Hinote concluded.

US, South Korea Agree to Coordinate More on Nuclear Deterrence

April 26, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. promised to deepen consultations with South Korea on a possible American nuclear response to a North Korean attack. In exchange, South Korea reaffirmed that it will not develop its own nuclear arsenal.

The understanding is outlined in a new agreement, dubbed the “Washington Declaration,” which was released April 26 during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s state visit to Washington.

The aim of the accord is to strengthen the U.S.’s commitment to its “extended deterrence” mission—in which America vows to defend South Korea from attack with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

“Our mutual defense treaty is ironclad,” President Joe Biden said during a press conference with Yoon at the White House. “That includes the nuclear threat and the nuclear deterrent.”

To drive the point home, the U.S. plans to make high-profile, but temporary, deployments, of nuclear-capable systems to the Korean peninsula, such as B-52 bombers and nuclear missile submarines.

“Going forward, the United States will further enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, as evidenced by the upcoming visit of a U.S. nuclear ballistic missile submarine to the ROK,” the document says, referring to the Republic of Korea.

That would be the first strategic submarine port call since the USS Robert E. Lee deployed to South Korea in 1981.

North Korea—officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DRPK—launched a record number of missiles in 2022. The country’s totalitarian leader, Kim Jong Un, has embarked on an ambitious ballistic missile and nuclear modernization effort, stoking fears in South Korea, which does not have a nuclear arsenal of its own.

To reassure Seoul, the agreement will establish a new Nuclear Consultative Group in which senior officials from both countries will regularly meet. The officials will not discuss targeting but will have broader deliberations to “strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning, and manage the threat” posed by North Korea, the Washington Declaration states.

Those deliberations are expected to lead to more exercises in which South Korea’s conventional forces are paired with U.S. nuclear-capable systems.

“The Alliance will work to enable joint execution and planning for ROK conventional support to U.S. nuclear operations in a contingency and improve combined exercises and training activities on the application of nuclear deterrence,” the declaration says.

The U.S. already has arrangements for conventionally armed countries to support America’s nuclear forces, such as NATO’s Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT), which has seen fighters from non-nuclear European nations exercise with American nuclear-capable aircraft.

Yoon said South Korea’s “state-of-the-art conventional forces” would be paired with American nuclear assets in planning and drills. “Sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula does not happen automatically,” he said, adding that deterring North Korea required “superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false peace based on the goodwill of the other side.”

The declaration also noted that a new South Korean Strategic Command, which will oversee the nation’s missiles and other key assets, will be linked to the joint U.S.-South Korean command on the peninsula.

Public opinion polls in South Korea show upwards of 70 percent of the population supports the indigenous production of nuclear arms, a prospect Yoon publicly floated in January.

“What the South Koreans want is a voice on this,” Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official now at the Brookings Institution, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “They want to be able to weigh in on this crucial decision, and this Washington Declaration will assure them that they will have that voice.”

Some nuclear policy experts said it was too soon to say how deep the increased coordination would be, but the agreement was also a symbolic effort by Washington to reassure Seoul.

“The big picture is the Biden administration has acknowledged that it was necessary for it to do more,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.