US Must Counter China and Russia in the Middle East, AFCENT Boss Says

Feb. 13, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The top Air Force commander for the Middle East supports the Pentagon’s broad shift in focus toward countering China, but sees a role for his command to help reassure regional allies and enhance the U.S. military capabilities in the region, he said Feb. 13.

Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, commander of Air Forces Central (AFCENT), said at an AFA Warfighters in Action event that Chinese investments, arms sales, and oil purchases have enabled Beijing to increase its influence in the region. But he has sought to counter those efforts by demonstrating the U.S. is a more dependable partner than China and Russia.

“We’re the enduring partner, we’re a partner of choice for them, we want a deep relationship based on shared interests,” Grynkewich said. “That’s much different from the Chinese approach. Unfortunately, we can always depend on the Chinese to be Chinese. Because when they show up, they’ll be transactional. You don’t get the depth of a relationship and after a few years are gone and the bridge they were building or fighters that you bought are falling apart.”

Earlier, Grynkewich told reporters at the Center for a New American Security that the U.S. had detected a Chinese balloon in the region last year, but it did not pass near U.S. military bases in the region and it was not clear if it was a surveillance or weather balloon. He declined to provide additional details but noted that other Chinese balloons have occasionally been detected transiting the Middle East region.

Grynkewich’s efforts to bolster the U.S.’s stature in the Middle East come amid concerns in some regional capitals that the area is becoming less of a priority for Washington than in past decades, when Washington’s principal focus was on counterinsurgency.

To strengthen its military capabilities in the region, CENTCOM and its components have sought to strengthen partnerships with nations in the region. They have experimented with the use of drones and other forms of innovation. And they have taken advantage of show-of-force exercises, like the recently concluded Juniper Oak multi-domain exercise with Israel, or quick injections of additional fighter aircraft and rotations of bomber task force missions.

“It does us well to think beyond our particular geographic region and think about the impacts of things that could happen outside of it,” Grynkewich said. “The place where we do that mostly is with respect to Russia and China.”

Even as the Pentagon focuses on China and Russia, the Middle East region presents complex challenges. That means Grynkewich’s job requires diplomatic skills as well as military acumen.

Iran has supplied Russia with drones for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. In return, it may be getting cash and military technology—Iranian news agencies claim the regime will receive Su-35 Flanker fighter jets from Russia, which would significantly complicate the threat Iran poses from the air. Iran currently has an aging air force dating back to the days before the 1979 revolution that overthrew the U.S.-backed Shah.

Commander of Air Forces Central Command Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and Air & Space Forces Association President and CEO Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright (Ret.) discuss issues facing Central Command and the USAF at a Air and Space Warfighters In Action event, Feb. 13, 2023, in Arlington, Va. Photo by Mike Tsukamoto/Air & Space Forces Magazine

“The other interesting dynamic is in a way it is flipped,” Grynkewich added. “Who is the client state and who is the benefactor? I never thought that I would see when Russia was beholden in some way to the Islamic Republic of Iran, but that is kind of the dynamic that you have.”

Iranian-backed militias also present a threat. Grynkewich told reporters earlier in the day that Iran had planned to attack Saudi Arabia last year but pulled back when media reports of the intelligence about the threat came to light and the U.S. sent F-22 fighters to the region.

“The threat picture when you think about Iran has changed substantially from what it was even just five years ago,” Grynkewich said. “I don’t want to overstate the analogy, but in many ways, it’s very similar to what you would see in the Indo-Pacific from an operational level challenge. You have large numbers of ballistic missiles to hold your bases at risk, and the launchers for those ballistic missiles are protected by advanced integrated air and missile defense system that rivals anywhere in the world.”

Overall, Grynkewich said that while the Middle East may no longer be the focus of budgets or news stories, it is still a dynamic geopolitical landscape that matters, particularly in respect to America’s pacing challenge.

“China thinks the Middle East is important,” Grynkewich said. “That probably means we ought to think the Middle East is important.”

Brown: Air Force Can’t Let Uncrewed Aircraft Get Too Expensive

Feb. 13, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force is “going down the path” toward much greater use of uncrewed aircraft but must be careful not to overload them with capability, lest they become too costly, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said Feb. 13.

Speaking at a Brookings Institution event, Brown said the Air Force is looking for “much more capability for uncrewed aircraft,” and sees them collaborating with the fifth-generation F-35 and future Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighters, potentially being controlled from other platforms that are in the vicinity of the fight.

But the Air Force must be “pragmatic” about the cost, Brown noted, particularly for those Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) that are meant to be “attritable,” meaning they are inexpensive enough that their loss would be acceptable.

“At what point do you say, this is no longer ‘attritable’ because you’re putting so much capability into [it]” Brown said. “They’re almost as expensive as the crewed aircraft. … You’re spending so much money and then you go, ‘OK … you want to get that one back. … So we’re looking at how we define these.”

Over the course of the hourlong discussion, Brown touched on a host of other topics, including speculation that a fight with China could come in the next few years; the ramifications of the recently downed Chinese surveillance balloon; the difficulty of getting Congress to let go of older systems; and the upcoming fiscal 2024 budget.

Uncrewed Aircraft

Echoing previous comments from other leaders, Brown said the direction the Air Force will chart for CCAs should become clear in the fiscal 2024 defense budget set to be unveiled next month.

“As we look into our future budgets, there’s three aspects of this,” Brown explained.

“There’s the platform itself. [Then] there is the autonomy that goes with it. And then there’s how we organize, train and equip to build the organizations to go with it, and we’re trying to do all those in parallel,” Brown said. Air Combat Command is known to be exploring how future squadrons might be structured to combine both crewed aircraft and the CCAs that will work with them.

The Air Force thinks a CCA “can be a sensor. It can be a shooter. It can be a jammer.” But is now primarily focused on “how [it is] teamed with a crewed aircraft,” Brown noted.

The service is looking at whether a CCA could be operated from the back of a KC-46 or from the E-7 Wedgetail warning and control airplane the Air Force is hoping to accelerate to service, or “from a fighter cockpit,” Brown said. “We’re thinking through those aspects.”

He added that the development of CCAs will have to involve “some level of risk,” in order to find out what works and what doesn’t, and there will be iterations of the capability.

“It may not work exactly” at the outset, “but we’re going to learn something, each evolution, as we go forward. And I think that’s the way we’ve got to … think about … Collaborative Combat Aircraft,” Brown said.

ACC chief Gen. Mark D. Kelly has said that the CCAs, which will be autonomous, need time to be integrated with crewed fighters so that pilots can become comfortable that they will do what they’re told and not create any hazards to flying or the mission.

Budget Big Picture

While CCAs will form a key part of the Air Force’s 2024 budget, some uncertainty remains over the Pentagon’s overall topline in the coming year, given growing appetite among some lawmakers for cuts counterbalanced by threats posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression along several fronts. Brown declined to predict a growth in funding but did say he saw “some positive things” along those lines.

But “I tell you, no matter what the topline is, we’ve got tough decisions to make,” he said, echoing consistent warnings from Kendall that the fiscal 2024 budget request will include hard choices between new systems and extant ones.

“I would really not like to see a … yearlong continuing resolution, because all we do is give our adversaries a year to move forward,” he added. “We have a number of new starts in the FY [2024] budget, and if we go to continuing resolution, we can’t start those.”

He added “you just can’t buy back time.” The Ukraine situation and the balloon shoot-down have “helped to sharpen our focus,” he said.

Progress on Capitol Hill

Brown’s signature “accelerate change or lose” mantra is starting to gain traction in Congress, particularly when it comes to retiring older, less relevant platforms to invest in new ones—but the service is hampered by having more secret programs than the other services, he said.

“It’s hard to make a transition, to let something go, to retire something, if you can’t see what the future looks like. And so I’ve spent a lot of time engaging with members and their staff to … provide them unclassified talking points associated with we’re trying to get done,” Brown said, noting that Congress finally relented and allowed the Air Force to start retiring A-10s in the last year.

China

Amid intense speculation as to if and when China might make a move against Taiwan—with a litany of predictions ranging from 2024 to 2027 and beyond—Brown said such conjecture is “not necessarily helpful” and the Air Force is preparing to fight “today” as well as “next decade” and every time in between.

He did say he does not believe that a conflict with China is “inevitable,” as long as the Air Force is postured to deter and, if necessary, to defeat aggression from China or elsewhere.

That, he said, is “what we’re really trying to … do,”—“to make sure we’re going to be ready, and that’s where the real focus is … and think about it with a sense of urgency.” He also said the Air Force is striving not to “fight the last war” by being innovative and thinking frankly about “how conflict might evolve.”

With regard to China, he said the Air Force is also trying to think “asymmetrically.”

Brown offered limited comments about the Air Force’s Feb. 4 shoot-down of a Chinese intelligence-gathering balloon, as well as other unidentified objects this past weekend.

“We as a military have the responsibility for homeland defense. And we take that seriously,” he said.

The balloon and other recent airborne objects “got all of our attention” and spurred a drive for “better scrutiny of our airspace,” he said. Warning radars have been adjusted to slower-moving objects “which means we’re seeing more things than we would normally,” he said. “But we don’t fully appreciate … [or] understand exactly what we’re seeing.”

As Ukraine Begs for Aircraft, US and UK See Jets As ‘Post-War’ Need

Feb. 13, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to campaign for Western fighter jets to help counter Russia’s invading and occupying forces, but high-ranking defense officials from the U.S. and U.K. both suggested last week that a transfer of F-16 combat jets are not planned for the near term and might even wait for a post-war “rebuilding” of Ukraine’s military.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for international security affairs Celeste Wallander and U.K. Minister for the Armed Forces James Heappey both emphasized during virtual events with the Center for a New American Security think tank that discussions about upgraded airpower for the Ukrainians were focused on the “long term”—and both indicated that the long term may stretch beyond Russia’s all-out invasion, which began roughly a year ago.

Those indications come even as British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he wants to start training Ukrainian pilots on Western aircraft as soon as possible. Sunak’s pledge came during a visit by Zelenskyy to the U.K. in which he once more made the case for upgraded aircraft, calling them “wings for freedom.” The British government said it will train pilots on NATO-standard aircraft and will investigate what fighters it might give Ukraine, while not committing to any transfers.

On Feb. 9, Heappey said during a CNAS event that starting pilot training now is in anticipation of potential future needs.

“At the end of the war, Ukraine will almost certainly need to rebuild … within its military, it will need to rebuild and very obviously that rebuilding will probably be through the procurement or gifting of large amounts of NATO-caliber kit,” Heappey said. “And so a conversation was had with the Ukrainians about the state of their air force and what they had got in terms of trained pilots that might be more than they need, given the number of planes that they’ve got remaining in service. And so an opportunity presented itself to start training Ukrainian pilots on the jets that they may have as a post-war air force. And that was the decision that we made.”

A day later, Wallander said the Pentagon’s aid for Ukraine can be broken down by immediate needs drawn from U.S. stocks and more long-term capabilities that will be procured from industry over time. In that first “bucket,” Wallander put artillery, air defense, and ground systems. In the second, she mentioned “airpower” as something Defense Department officials are considering, but not for the immediate future.

“Ukraine’s got to move on to a modern military to have that credible combat power. … And we’ve also worked with industry, not just on making sure allies and partners have the capabilities they need, but that we are able to plan for that kind of capability for Ukraine,” Wallander said.

“Because when there is a either a negotiated settlement or Ukrainian success on its own in taking back its territory, there will be a change in the conditions. Hopefully, Russia will wake up to the fact that it cannot defeat Ukraine, and there will be a drawdown in the intensity in the fighting and that will create an opportunity for Ukraine then to build a longer-term credible defense capability, including airpower, including to complement what it’s doing in ground capabilities and air defense capabilities.”

However, Heappey did leave open the possibility of transferring jets during the war based on Russia’s actions.

“If the consequence of the pilot training is that other options are available to our political leaders later in the year in response to another Russian escalation or outrage—and we have to be clear, each time that a threshold has gone through … it is the way the Russians prosecute this war that breaks the taboo. It’s not the U.K. breaking the taboo, the U.K. simply is the first to respond to whatever outrage the Russians have committed,” Heappey said. “And so as the Prime Minister said, everything’s on the table. But ostensibly, the training of pilots is not with any immediate commitment to donate jets.”

Wallander also mentioned training as a consideration for long-term aid, something Pentagon officials have repeatedly raised when asked about the potential transfer of F-16s. A bipartisan group of lawmakers tried to include funds in the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act dedicated to training Ukrainian pilots and maintainers on American fixed-wing aircraft for air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, but the provision was not included in the final bill. In a Feb. 13 virtual event hosted by the Brookings Institute, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said it would theoretically take two to six months to train Ukrainian pilots on Western fighters.

But while Wallander and Heappey argued that airpower upgrades will likely be a post-war move, advocates say the Ukrainians need better aircraft now to survive the war.

“Unless Ukraine acquires a replacement fighter force of Western origin in the coming months, it will lose the ability to defend its airspace and support its ground forces, and without control of their airspace they will lose,” retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “Some have raised the practical challenges of pilot training, supply, maintenance, etc. The Ukrainian Air Force can overcome these challenges.”

Providing Western aircraft and more advanced air-to-air missiles would enable Ukraine to defend its cities and infrastructure against punishing missile and Shahed drone attacks, analysts say.

“The Ukrainian Air Force fighter force needs modern Western fighters and missiles to sustainably counter the VKS,” the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) wrote in a November report, referring to the Russian Aerospace Forces. “Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war, so even a small number of Western fighters could have a major deterrent effect.”

Jones Stepping Down as Undersecretary of the Air Force

Feb. 13, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Undersecretary Gina Ortiz Jones, the Department of the Air Force’s No. 2 civilian, is stepping down effective March 6. The department’s comptroller, Kristyn E. Jones, will become Acting Undersecretary up her departure, the Air Force said.

“Undersecretary Jones has been a tireless advocate for the Department of the Air Force and its people,” said Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall in a statement. “Her leadership in enabling all Airmen, Guardians, and their families to serve to their full potential and providing the resources they need has enhanced the readiness of the Air and Space Force for years to come. The department is grateful for her dedicated service.”

Ortiz Jones, the 27th undersecretary in Air Force history and sixth woman to hold the position, was confirmed by the Senate in July 2021. A former Air Force intelligence officer, she is also the first openly lesbian undersecretary, and her time serving in the era of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” shaped her experience.

“I was honored to wear our nation’s cloth,” Ortiz Jones said. But like her uncle, who joined the Navy as a steward at a time when opportunity for Filipinos was limited, she too faced barriers, she told lawmakers during her confirmation hearing. “Similar to my uncle’s limited career opportunities because of his ethnicity, my experience in the Air Force was hindered by the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy,” Jones said in her opening statement. “Yet I, too, remained undeterred because of my desire to serve our country. That experience cemented my resolve to ensure anyone ready and able to serve can do so to their full potential, and accordingly, our country’s fullest potential.”

As undersecretary, Ortiz Jones sought deeper analysis of the department’s racial and gender disparities and a broad review of gender-biased Air Force policies affecting the careers of female Airmen and Guardians.

Her efforts yielded policy changes, such as allowing pregnant candidates to apply to the Air Force’s Officer Training School without a waiver and sending female Airmen to the Royal Thai Air Force Air Command and Staff College for the first time.

Ortiz Jones also championed a “no wrong door” policy, with one office of primary responsibility within the department to address domestic violence, harassment, and stalking, and touted the benefits of a diverse force, framing it as an issue of readiness.

Ortiz Jones will be replaced in an acting capacity by Kristyn E. Jones, no relation, who has been with the Department of the Air Force since May 2022 as assistant secretary for financial management and comptroller. In that role, she serves as the department’s chief financial officer, overseeing a budget of more than $194 billion.

Krystyn Jones’ prior roles Department of Defense included stints as the deputy assistant secretary of the Army for financial information management, director of enterprise transition planning at DOD’s Business Transformation Agency and a tour as financial manager at the Office of Naval Research.

She will be the fourth acting undersecretary since 2019.

Here’s What the CSAF Is Reading, Watching, and Listening To This Month

Feb. 12, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.’s “Leadership Library” expanded this month with new additions focused on Abraham Lincoln, the Tuskegee Airmen, and lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Brown’s recommended reading list added two books, two podcasts, and a documentary to the ever-growing collection of media recommended for Airmen. Brown says he hopes sharing selected media will “spark conversations for you with fellow Airmen, with your family, and with your friends.”

Launched in March 2021, Brown’s library recommendations now contain more than three dozen books, podcasts, television shows, and movies.

Here’s what Brown had to say about each of the latest entries:

Tuskegee Top Gun, by HISTORY This Week

“Since America’s bicentennial, Black History Month marks an annual observance that celebrates the contributions and achievements of African Americans. This year we also recognize the 75th Anniversary of Executive Order 9981, signed by President Truman to ban segregation within the armed forces. Within the first service to complete integration, Lt. Col. James Harvey III and Lt. Col. Harry Stewart, Jr. discuss demonstrating their talent … by breaking barriers so all could contribute their abilities within an Air Force that reflected the country they served.”

The Prepared Leader: Emerge From Any Crisis More Resilient Than Before, by Erika James & Dr. Lynn Wooten

“Within today’s dynamic geopolitical environment, we need talent as diverse as the challenges our Nation faces. … Dean of the Wharton School Erika James & Simmons University President Dr. Lynn Wooten break down the heuristics of crisis to provide strategies for understanding risk, managing uncertainty, and calibrating resilience.”

Russian Airpower in Ukraine: Lessons From the West, by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies

“The one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscores that our understanding of the operational environment is synonymous with acute crisis management. In the Mitchell Institute’s Aerospace Advantage podcast … Dr. Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute provides a masterclass into tactical and operational insights from the Ukrainian battlefield while challenging us to rethink the modern air campaign.”

Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, by Chris Miller

“It’s been said that ‘data is the new oil,’ but no other global industry today represents a potential flashpoint for crisis as evidenced by the microchip. Chris Miller provides a gripping historical account of semiconductors in Chip War. … The interplay of technology, economics, manufacturing, and national defense aligned once before during the Cold War. This historical lesson about the strategic importance of this critical resource serves as a blueprint for our ability to prevail in 21st-century competition.”

Abraham Lincoln, by The HISTORY Channel

“This President’s Day Weekend, HISTORY Channel’s Abraham Lincoln reminds us how far we’ve come while harboring no illusions about the work that remains. Under the gravity of crisis during the Civil War, President Lincoln displayed humility, courage, and resolve-virtues synonymous with our Air Force Values. I am inspired by his legacy.”

Air Assets, Allies Remain Key for Pentagon’s Basing Strategy

Feb. 10, 2023 | By Christopher Prawdzik

Air assets and strategic partnerships remain pivotal components to the Pentagon’s basing strategy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of Defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities, said during a Brookings Institution online forum Feb. 10.

“The National Defense Strategy is really focused on allies and partners as a center of gravity,” she said. “We have this unparalleled network that I think our adversaries and challengers find incredibly capable, find meaningful, as one thinks about contingencies and also for deterrence.”

In the Indo-Pacific, Karlin emphasized recent “posture investments” throughout the region by DOD in close coordination with allies.

In Japan, the Air Force is replacing older forward-stationed F-15C aircraft with a rotation of more advanced aircraft, including fifth-generation technologies. The service has also begun MQ-9 Reaper operations in Japan to increase domain awareness, and the two countries reached a joint agreement in January to station a Marine Corps littoral regiment on Okinawa.

“That’s going to bring more advanced and mobile capability to help address the full spectrum of fires requirements in the region,” Karlin said.

Other actions in Japan include the addition of Army watercraft to help increase maritime mobility and updating missions that allow more active Japanese contributions to security.

“Japan is going to establish a permanent joint headquarters that’ll work with us on command and control and make us all even more interoperable,” Karlin said. “We’re going to expand how we’re sharing facilities in Japan; we’re going to increase exercises, and that includes exercises in Japan’s southwest islands … and all of this really sings nicely with Japan’s updated defense strategy that they recently highlighted, which just demonstrates a serious effort to invest profoundly in the Japanese self-defense forces.”

Beyond Japan, Karlin also highlighted progress on AUKUS, the U.S.’s trilateral agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom. While the arrangement is principally focused on providing Australia with conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine capabilities, other advanced military capabilities have been folded in as well—Karlin said Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed accelerating technology delivery with his U.K. and Australian counterparts at their first caucus in December.

“Some examples include our cooperation on maritime undersea intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, and using all three of our countries’ autonomous systems to enhance maritime domain awareness,” she said. “We’re also leveraging exercises in the region to demonstrate and test advanced capabilities, and we’re pursuing additional collaborative demonstrations, including for hypersonics and autonomous systems over this next year.”

Karlin also noted the planned expansion of rotational bomber and fighter deployments—the Pentagon also plans to conduct more bomber and fighter exercises with South Korea.

The U.S.’s posture in the region has also been bolstered with the Philippines, with the recent announcement that U.S. forces would have access to four more bases in the country under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

“It enables combined training exercises interoperability that lets our forces better cooperate when we’re looking at humanitarian assistance, disaster relief,” Karlin said. “We also are going to restart joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea.”

This cooperation will make combined exercises more complex, help improve joint planning, and ensure the region has advanced capabilities, she added.

These partnerships show a fundamental difference in what the U.S. and China are competing for,Isaac Kardon, senior fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, emphasized in a follow-up panel.

“China is not certainly in a position now to substitute for the types of security goods, public, and club, and ally, and partner network, and otherwise, that the United States is providing, and I don’t think we need to worry about that kind of direct symmetric competition,” he said. “We need to worry about what does China’s economic access grant it in terms of strategic leverage, coercive leverage.”

Responding to Russia

Yet it is not only in the Pacific where the Defense Department is looking to bolster its presence. Karlin noted Russia remains an acute, immediate, and sharp threat, requiring vigilance in Europe.

“We are working to deepen our partnerships and enhance our posture in Europe, most notably alongside our NATO allies,” she said. “You saw just how quickly the U.S. military surged forces to Europe as Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine kicked off last February, so we quickly surged forces from about 80,000 or so to over 100,000.”

In addition, F-35s were stationed in the U.K., and additional destroyers were deployed to Rota, Spain. Karlin also touched on a number of other strength enhancements, including Baltic region rotational deployments and forward stationing the Army’s V Corps in Poland.

Moving forward, however, NATO unity will remain a key challenge, said Emily Holland, assistant professor at the Russian Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War college in the follow-up panel discussion.

“The U.S. is seeking to send these strong deterrence signals to Russia, but they’re really emphasizing working through and with partners,” she said. “So it’s important for the administration that where it sent troops, NATO was also sending troops and support at the same time.”

Elsewhere in the Middle East, the U.S. has downsized its presence after two decades of war, but Karlin touted the successes like January’s Juniper Oak exercise, which featured 100 U.S. aircraft, including four B-52 Stratofortress bombers, reconnaissance aircraft, and four F-35s.

“What’s meaningful is not just how great the cooperation was between the U.S. military and the Israelis, but that we could come in and we could run such an exercise and have what we believe is an important impact and showing our interoperability and our ability to respond quickly when we need to do so,” she said.

Karlin also emphasized the number of changes she’s seen, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, over the past decade or so.

“You increasingly see cognizance and concurrence of how the threat environment has changed,” she said. “You see a need and a desire by our allies and our partners across the Indo-Pacific, and I would say, a whole lot of agreement by our allies in Europe as well, about the need to focus and collaborate on what we are all doing there to ensure security and stability.”

F-35 Deliveries May Resume by March, as Pratt Says It Has an Engine Fix

Feb. 10, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Pratt & Whitney believes it has a fix in hand for the engine problem that may have contributed to an F-35B crash in December, and deliveries of all F-35 fighters, on hold since Dec. 27, 2022, could resume by March, according to the contractor.

“We have developed a near-term remedy that allows the fleet to fly safely, and we expect that F135 engine deliveries could resume before the end of the month,” said Jen Latka, vice president of Pratt & Whitney for the F135 engine, which powers the F-35 fighter.

Latka did not elaborate to Air & Space Forces Magazine on what the fix is, except to say that it addresses “a rare systems phenomenon involving harmonic resonance.”

The Dec. 14 crash that led to the halt in deliveries occurred during an F-35B acceptance flight at Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas, facility—the aircraft suddenly pitched forward during a vertical descent and struck the runway. The pilot ejected at zero altitude and survived the escape with light injury.

The crash sparked an investigation, led by Naval Air Systems Command, which in turn led to all deliveries of F135 engines and F-35s being suspended.

A cracked fuel tube found in the wreck, suspected in the early days of the investigation, has turned out not to be a systemic problem, Latka said.

“After thorough review, we can confidently say there were no quality issues with the fuel tube that fractured,” she said.

“We are working closely” the F-35 Joint Program Office, Naval Air Systems Command and the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center “on all aspects of the ongoing investigation, including root cause determination and corrective action development,” Latka said. “Safety for the warfighter is and will continue to be our number one priority.” She noted that the F135 has accumulated 600,000 flight hours, and this experience along with “everything we’ve learned over the last 20 years” will be applied to “continue to mature and modernize the F135.”

A spokeswoman for NAVAIR could not offer an estimate of when the inquiry will be concluded. She offered no comment on whether any inspections or technical orders have been ordered as a result of a safety probe conducted in the wake of the accident.

The F-35 JPO referred queries about the engine situation to Pratt & Whitney.

A Lockheed Martin spokeswoman said the contractor has finished building—and is storing—17 F-35s since the halt in deliveries was ordered at the end of December. Production of the fighters has continued at a normal pace since then.

Several flight tests are required of each aircraft in order to complete the DD250 process, which is the handover protocol of a formal aircraft delivery. The Lockheed spokeswoman could not offer an estimate of how long it would take to complete those flight tests for the 17 aircraft.

Roughly a dozen of the 17 F-35s currently in storage were headed for Air Force duty, a service spokeswoman told Air & Space Forces Magazine. The aircraft were destined for Lakenheath Air Base, U.K.; Nellis Air Force Base, Nev.; Luke Air Force Base, Ariz.; and Hill Air Force Base, Utah, she said.

While there have been “no operational impacts” as a result of the F-35 deliveries hiatus, the Air Force spokeswoman said, she noted a problem with “the F-35 main fuel throttle valve has only impacted production aircraft and a very small number of fielded F-35s with low-time engines.”

The Air Force is “working with the [JPO], Department of the Navy, partners, Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney toward a resolution to resume engine and aircraft deliveries as soon as possible,” she added.

Pratt has been lobbying the Air Force to go with its F135 Engine Core Upgrade (ECU) to provide the additional power and cooling required for the Block 4 version of the F-35.

The Air Force is also considering upgrading to one of the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP) engines developed by Pratt and GE Aerospace. The two engines—GE’s XA-100 and Pratt’s XA-101—were developed as potential F-35 engine upgrades over a 12-year period. Both provide about a 30 percent increase in fuel efficiency, as well as improved thrust and cooling, thanks to a novel bypass air feature.

However, the JPO has warned the Air Force that it would have to bear the costs for the development of an AETP engine alone, as partners in the program, in the interest of commonality, have to “pay to be different.”

Pratt would prefer the Air Force go with the F135 ECU—even though Pratt has an AETP engine to offer—as such a choice would cement its monopoly as the sole provider of F-35 engines. The AETP option would potentially bring in GE as another source.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has discussed engine development cost-sharing with Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, but no joint effort has been announced. While GE says its AETP can be adapted to fit any of the three F-35 variants, Pratt has said its version can’t be made to work with the F-35B, which employs a rotating rear nozzle and a vertically-mounted lift fan to achieve vertical takeoffs and landings.

USAF officials have said the F-35 engine question will likely be answered in the fiscal year 2024 President’s Budget, now expected to be released in early March.

USAF Fighters Shoot Down Three Objects in Three Days—But Details Are Scarce

Feb. 10, 2023 | By Greg Hadley and Chris Gordon

U.S. Air Force fighters shot down three separate airborne objects over North America in three days this weekend—one over Alaska, one in Canada, and one above Michigan—but unlike the Chinese balloon that transited the continental U.S. before being shot down by an F-22 off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4, the origins of these three new objects, their purpose, and what exactly they are remain unclear.

In a Feb. 12 briefing, Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, head of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), said all three of the objects were similar in size and speed—small and slow-moving—and none presented a “kinetic military threat,” but he declined to offer any other details.

The unprecedented flurry of shoot-downs—VanHerck said he believed it to the first time in NORAD or NORTHCOM history that the U.S. has taken kinetic action against an airborne object—could be explained in part by a heightened state of alert after the Chinese spy balloon, which created an international uproar after it was identified and proceeded to fly over the U.S.

“We have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase in objects that we’ve detected over the past week,” assistant secretary of Defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs Melissa Dalton said.

“Radars essentially filter out information based on speed,” VanHerck added. “So you can set various gates, we call them velocity gates, that allow us to filter out low-speed clutter. So if you had radars on all the time that we’re looking at anything from zero speed … you would see a lot more information. We have adjusted some of those gates to give us better fidelity on seeing slower objects. You can also filter out by altitude and so with some adjustments, we’ve been able to get a better categorization of radar tracks now, and that’s why I think you’re seeing these overall. Plus there’s a heightened alert to look for this information.”

Still, much about these three new objects, taken down Feb. 10-12, remains unknown, and Dalton acknowledged that whoever launched them may not have been using them for military or intelligence purposes.

“We … know that a range of entities, including countries, companies, research organizations—operate objects at these altitudes for purposes that are not nefarious, including legitimate research,” Dalton said.

And while NORAD and NORTHCOM repeatedly scrambled aircraft to identify, track, and shoot down the objects, VanHerck declined to provide any description of what pilots saw.

“It’s really, really difficult for pilots—at the altitudes we’re operating, with a very, very slow object … going at the speed of the wind, essentially and our pilots are going several hundred miles per hour—to give us what I would consider a factual, scientific-based description of what we see,” VanHerck said.

All told, U.S. Air Force assets from Alaska to Pennsylvania, ranging from fighters to tankers to ISR aircraft, were involved in tracking and shooting down the three objects.

Lake Huron

The most recent takedown took place Feb. 12, with F-16s from the Minnesota Air National Guard’s 148th Fighter Wing downing an object at around 20,000 feet over Lake Huron near the upper peninsula of Michigan, using an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile. The object in question was apparently connected to one detected over Montana the previous day.

The F-16s were supported by a KC-135 from Pennsylvania Air National Guard and a E-3 Sentry from Tinker Air Force Base, Okla.

“Based on its flight path and data we can reasonably connect this object to the radar signal picked up over Montana, which flew in proximity to sensitive DOD sites,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said in a statement, in an apparent reference to the same ICBM silos at Malmstrom Air Force Base the Chinese balloon flew over. “Its path and altitude raised concerns, including that it could be a hazard to civil aviation.”

F-15s were scrambled from Portland Air National Guard Base, Wash. to search for the object Feb. 11 and airspace was closed over Montana, but no contact occurred.

Ryder said the Pentagon “did not assess it to be a kinetic military threat to anything on the ground, but did assess it was a safety flight hazard and a threat due to its potential surveillance capabilities.”

Yukon

A different encounter, however, did occur on Feb. 11 as NORAD tracked and shot down an object in northwest Canada.

The Pentagon said the object was tracked and monitored over U.S. airspace by F-22s from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. The object then crossed into northwest Canada, and Canadian CF-18s fighters and CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft joined in the hunt.

“Out of an abundance of caution and at the recommendation of their militaries, President Biden and Prime Minister Trudeau authorized it to be taken down,” the White House said in a statement. “President Biden authorized U.S. fighter aircraft assigned to NORAD to conduct the operation and a U.S. F-22 shot down the object in Canadian territory in close coordination with Canadian authorities.”

Canadian defense minister Anita Anand said the target was a “small, cylindrical object” which was smaller than the Chinese balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4. Anand said the object was operating at approximately 40,000 feet and was downed approximately 100 miles from the U.S.-Canadian border. Once again, the fighter used an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile for the kill. Canadian authorities have yet to further identify the object.

Alaska

On the other side of the border, an F-22 shot down an object in northeastern Alaska on Feb. 10—also using an AIM-9X.

Ryder said the object was first detected by a U.S. Northern Command ground radar on Feb. 9. A U.S. military official told Air & Space Forces Magazine that F-35s helped identify the object on Feb. 9, and a pair of F-22s from Elmendorf-Richardson were subsequently used for the takedown. F-16s from Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska assisted the F-22s with the kill, the official said.

Officials said the object was flying at around 40,000 feet, presenting a danger to civilian air traffic and necessitating it be shot down. In a Feb. 10 briefing, Ryder said Air Force pilots were able to determine the object was likely unmanned but declined to explain why officials could not describe any more details about the object, even while pilots were able to determine it was unmanned.

“We’ll know more and have more information once we’ve recovered this,” Ryder said. “I will give credit to our pilots, that they’re very capable in terms of looking at an object and assessing whether or not this had the potential to be manned. At that altitude, something that small—very, very unlikely that it was manned.”

National Security Council spokesman John F. Kirby did indicate Feb. 10 that the object did not appear to have a “significant” payload or self-propulsive capabilities.

The quick downing of the three objects in quick succession stand in contrast to the Chinese surveillance balloon, which was first detected near the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, before flying over Canada. By the time President Biden gave the order to shoot it down, Pentagon officials have said, it had crossed over from Canada into Idaho and Montana, and Biden and his leaders made the decision not to shoot it until it was over water and not a threat to civilians on the ground.

That decision was criticized by many Republicans, but both Kirby and Ryder said the choice to shoot down the object in Canada far sooner after its initial detection was not based on politics.

“A little bit apples and oranges,” Ryder said, noting that because the object was flying at a lower altitude—40,000 feet compared to 65,000—it presented a threat to civil air traffic.

Recovery operations for the Alaska object are still ongoing, VanHerck said Feb. 12. Ryder initially said HC-130, HH-60, and CH-47 aircraft had been assigned to the operation, and VanHerck later said a Navy P-8 and helicopters were still looking for the object.

New Report: Defense Industrial Readiness ‘Going in the Wrong Direction’

Feb. 9, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

There’s a growing “mismatch” between what the National Defense Strategy says is needed for the coming years and the state of the defense industrial base, which is shrinking, less able to surge production, dealing with ever-greater uncertainty, and facing a worsening shortage of workers, according to a new report from the National Defense Industrial Association.

The 2023 edition of the NDIA’s annual report on the health of the defense industrial base said the “resiliency” of the industrial base “was sacrificed as part of the 1990s Peace Dividend.” The qualities that once made the base a “powerhouse”—stable and predictable budgets, a highly skilled, experienced workforce, diversified and modern infrastructure, manufacturing innovation and sufficient capacity—have all “atrophied,” according to the report.

In their place is now a “just-in-time” scheme that offers little depth and ability to “reconstitute” in the event of an unexpected conflict, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That is seemingly at odds with the latest edition of the National Defense Strategy, which says the U.S. must be able to deter war with China—the U.S.’s “pacing challenge” in military capability—or win a protracted conflict if deterrence fails.

The NDIA report was released Feb. 8; the same day the heads of major defense industry associations—including David Norquist, president of the NDIA—testified before the House Armed Services Committee on factors affecting the nation’s ability to surge weapons production for a major war.

Many of the concerns raised by the NDIA have been pointed out before but are continuing “in the wrong direction,” the report said, including:

People: The NDIA notes that while there were three million people working in U.S. defense industries in 1985, that number has dwindled to 1.1 million.
Companies: In five years, the “defense ecosystem” has lost 17,045 companies; vendors that either went out of business, were absorbed by another company, or exited the sector. In the case of small businesses, their departure was often driven by the bureaucracy of dealing with Pentagon contracting or the long delays between proposals and contract awards. The DOD estimates the number of small businesses doing work for the Pentagon fell 40 percent in the last 10 years, despite a growing panoply of programs specifically designed to attract and retain them.
A Shrinking Part of the Economy: As a share of Gross Domestic Product, defense spending has declined from 5.8 percent to 3.2 percent since 1985, “and the Congressional Budget Office projects a further decline to 2.7 percent by 2036.”
Predictability: The federal government has operated under a continuing resolution in 13 of the last 14 years, lowering purchasing power and delaying new starts “essential for modernization,” production increases for programs ready to expand, and advanced procurement funding “essential for building capacity.”
Limited Surge Capability: The lack of investment in infrastructure, equipment, “idle capacity and tooling,” and too much reliance on single-source vendors “challenges both the readiness and reconstitution” capability of the DIB.

The NDIA said the Pentagon “must prioritize removing” the red tape that is “strangling the defense industrial base” and begin a campaign of “significant … predictable” investments to rebuild the DIB’s “strategic endurance and resilience.”

A large part of the NDIA report is a survey of member companies, which come from the aerospace, shipbuilding, vehicles, materials, electronics, and other defense sectors. The NDIA said its survey included responses from 171 companies, who collectively hold 35 percent of contracts of the Pentagon’s acquisition budget, ranging from small shops to major prime contractors.

Collectively, respondents said the Pentagon acquisition process is “growing more—not less—cumbersome,” according to the survey summary. The lack of consistency and predictability of budgets is “breaking companies and causing significant workforce uncertainty,” the latter issue of which is affecting “even our most strategic defense programs.” Inflation—“a cross-cutting issue”—is playing hob with many programs, in part because labor rates are often locked in at the beginning of long-term contracts, and many had small, if any, escalation provisions.

The survey asked about a number of defense industrial climate factors, including:

Inflation: 72 percent of companies surveyed picked “increased labor costs” as the top consequence they’ll feel because of inflation. More than 50 percent chose increased costs of materials and trouble hiring new workers. Rounding out the top six impacts were supply chain delays, employees quitting and reduced customer spending. Only six percent of those answering the survey expected “no major impacts” from inflation in the coming year.
Ease of Doing Business: The Pentagon has a lot of work to do to make it easier for companies to work with it—62 percent of respondents said it’s “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult” to do business with the DOD, compared to 48 percent for other government agencies and 34 percent for nongovernment organizations. Only 13 percent said it was “very easy” or “somewhat easy” to work with the Pentagon, versus 47 percent of nongovernment organizations.
Hiring: Good help is hard to get. For science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) jobs, 82 percent of companies said it’s “somewhat” or “very” difficult to hire workers. It’s the same story for skilled workers and tradespeople, at 64 percent, and workers with security clearances, at 75 percent. In a separate question, companies were asked how hard they expect it to be competing with nondefense companies for workers, and 80 percent answered “somewhat” or “very” difficult.
Toughest Issues: Asked to name “the most pressing issue” facing the DIB, almost a third of respondents—30 percent—said it was the “burden of acquisition processes and paperwork.” About a quarter—23 percent–named “finding and retaining talent,” almost even with “lack of budget stability,” at 22 percent. Inflation was the only other issue to crack 10 percent.
Help Us: The two top answers to “what can government do to help the DIB” were “streamline the acquisition process” and “ensure budget stability,” at 34 percent each. Eleven percent said “enhance funding of research and development for emerging technologies,” nine percent said simplifying the process of security clearances, and six percent want the government to help with training of a skilled workforce.
Outlook: Queried on whether they think general business conditions will improve in the next year, most respondents—45 percent—said things will likely stay the same, with 33 percent predicting “worse” and 22 percent expecting “better.” Asked about how they expect conditions to be in the defense business sector a year from now, 57 percent said “about the same,” but 29 percent expect things will be worse. Only 14 percent expect conditions to be better.