Allvin: What Ukraine and the Middle East Have Shown USAF About Airpower

May 14, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Air superiority still matters, but not necessarily in the case of Russia and Ukraine, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin said May 13, as he delved into the lessons learned from the ongoing conflicts in the region and the Middle East.

“Air superiority still matters, and we need to understand we’re probably not going to be able to do it the way we used to, nor is it necessary,” said Allvin at a Council on Foreign Relations event.

Allvin’s comments build on remarks both he and Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife have made in recent months, arguing that the service must change how it defines and pursues air superiority, an essential tenet of its doctrine.

The Air Force defines air superiority as essential, but its significance varies depending on mission objectives, requiring adaptable capabilities for commanders. Allvin argued that air superiority’s traditional significance has altered due to the evolving nature of warfare—a point he first made during the AFA Warfare Symposium in February.

Allvin said air superiority demands consistent capacity and coordination with other domains to fully exploit the battlefield, an area where both Russia and Ukraine have been lacking.

“Neither side has been able to have much of a continued momentum,” the general said. “Largely, because they haven’t been able to control from the air and be able to support a combined arms operation.”

And while the USAF is not involved in the conflict, the results carry implications for the U.S.

“The traditional idea of how American airpower is, we have used our airpower to roll back the enemy air defenses, and then freedom to and freedom from attack, and the airspace is ours for a long period of time,” said Allvin. “But it’s also not necessary, because if you have the ability to gain air superiority and synchronize it with the reason why you have it to enable a combined arms fight, then it’s still effective. But right now, neither side is able to do that, because they aren’t able to leverage that. And even if they could, the electromagnetic spectrum and electronic warfare is alive and well in that country.”

Modern aircraft rely on electronic warfare support to penetrate heavily defended air space. Experts suggest achieving air superiority over areas controlled by capable adversaries may require pairing low observable combat aircraft like the F-35 with electronic warfare capabilities.

Last month, the Air Force’s Vice Chief of Staff, Gen. James C. “Jim” Slife, also explored the shifting dynamics of air superiority, citing the explosion of small, one-way attack drones on the frontlines of Ukraine and against U.S. outposts in the Middle East. Slife cited the defense of Israel against Iranian drone attacks in April as an example of an effective layered air defense, where the U.S. and its partners intercepted missiles and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Allvin also cited the significance of the episode.

“There’s a lot that went into what turned out to be a quite successful response to the salvo that Iran tried, because, had that succeeded, that might have definitely blown the top off, but it didn’t,” said Allvin.

U.S. Air Force F-15E and F-16 fighters shot down more than 70 drones during the attack, which involved over 100 ballistic missiles, 30 land-attack cruise missiles, and 150 drones. U.S. and Israeli officials claimed to intercept “99 percent” of the drones and missiles, with Israel taking out the majority of the threats.

“There’s so much that went on behind the scenes, the actual the orchestration of the actual event was remarkable,” said Allvin. “It was mostly due to the work, the coordination that was done ahead of time.”

Allvin said broader U.S. efforts in the region helped “keep the Middle East from boiling over,” serving as a testament to the effective treatment of allies and partners in the region.

Air Force leaders have been consistently hammering home the importance of integrated air and missile defenses (IAMD) as of late. The U.S. and NATO allies have expanded the role of IAMD in exercises, citing the two ongoing conflicts that underscore the need to swiftly counter aerial threats and foster early collaboration.

House Defense Bill Would Slow F-15E Retirements, Add Future F-15EXs

May 14, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The leading lawmaker on the House Armed Services Committee is proposing significant changes to the Air Force’s plans for its F-15 fleet, preventing the service from cutting 26 F-15E Strike Eagles and adding money for more F-15EX Eagles IIs in 2026, according to a draft version of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. The moves are aimed at preventing the Air Force from shrinking its fighter fleet—at least for now.

HASC chairman Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-Ala.) mark of the annual defense policy bill prohibits the retirement of any F-15E Strike Eagles for the foreseeable future. The Air Force’s 2025 Presidential Budget Request asked to retire 26 F-15Es next year—and keep drawing down the fleet afterward.

Instead, the draft NDAA “would prohibit the retirement of any F-15E tactical fighter aircraft, with certain exceptions, until the Secretary of Defense submits a fighter aircraft capability and requirements study that estimates the number of fighter aircraft needed by the Air Force to meet the requirements of geographical combatant commanders,” according to the proposed legislation.

The study the committee wants is due by the end of 2025. Until then, the current F-15Es would need to stay in service.

“The Secretary of the Air Force may not retire, prepare to retire, or place in storage or on backup aircraft inventory status any F–15E aircraft until a period of 180 days has elapsed following the date” Congress is briefed on the report, due by Dec. 31, 2025, the draft NDAA states. Under the plan, aircraft deemed costly write-offs after accidents or due to other damage would be allowed to be stricken from the fleet.

However, whether such an action will be enacted into law remains to be seen. The full committee must hold a markup hearing for the NDAA, which allows members to offer amendments. Meanwhile, the Senate Armed Services Committee plans to mark up its version of the NDAA in June. Eventually, a conference committee will compromise between the two versions and produce the final bill.

The Air Force has wanted to significantly reduce the number of F-15E Strike Eagles in recent years. For 2024, it originally had plans to cut more the F-15E fleet by 119 aircraft, for a final inventory of just 99 fighters. The 2024 NDAA that was enacted into law limited the number of Strike Eagles that could be retired through fiscal 2029 to 68 aircraft, though some lawmakers oppose the retirement of any F-15Es.

In 2025, the Air Force wants to eliminate 26 F-15E Strike Eagles with less powerful Pratt and Whitney F100-PW-220 engines. The service argues that this will help fund upgrades to the remaining fleet and make the aircraft better suited to a near-peer fight.

The Air Force plans to put the Eagle Passive Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) on the F-15s it keeps, which provides “an advanced digital electronic warfare system capable of defeating modern threat systems in contested airspace,” the service’s 2025 budget documents state.

Separately, the size of the F-15EX Eagle II fleet continues to be debated. The Air Force initially planned to purchase 144 of the fighters, an advanced fourth-generation replacement for the old F-15C/D Eagles. But that number has repeatedly shrunk. The Air Force’s 2025 budget proposes capping the fleet at 98 aircraft after buying 18 more F-15EXs and ending production.

The draft NDAA has different plans—it would authorize $271 million in advanced procurement spending for 24 more F-15EXs to come in 2026, which would bump the fleet to 122 airframes. The Air Force has not revealed its 2026 budget, but like the 2025 budget, it will be capped at one percent growth by the Fiscal Responsibility Act and require significant tradeoffs.

“We do have constraints,” Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall told reporters during a briefing on the 2025 budget in March. “We’ve got some tough choices ahead when we get into ’26, which we’re really building now.”

In addition to changing the Air Force’s F-15 plans, the draft NDAA also takes aim at the F-35, which has been plagued by problems with the Technology Refresh-3 upgrade, causing the Pentagon to refuse delivery and forcing Lockheed Martin forced to park brand-new jets.

The draft NDAA proposes slashing the Pentagon’s overall purchase of 68 F-35s to 58 fighters, and would further “permit the Secretary of Defense to accept delivery of only 48 of 58 F-35 aircraft authorized for procurement during fiscal year 2025 until the secretary submits to the congressional defense committees certain corrective action plans and acquisition strategies that will improve research, development, testing, evaluation, and production issues and deficiencies identified across multiple areas within the F-35 program enterprise.”

The Pentagon appears to be on its way to get its way with some aircraft, at least as of now. The Air Force has repeatedly tried to divest aging A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft. Congress balked for years, but the draft bill clears the way for Air Force’s planned 56 A-10 retirements next year.

Draft NDAA Would Let the Space Force Absorb Guard Units—with Restrictions

May 14, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

A draft version of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act would allow the Department of the Air Force to transfer Air National Guard units with space missions into the Space Force—but the language is not without compromise in light of the fierce pushback the proposal has faced in recent weeks.

In his chairman’s mark of the defense policy bill, House Armed Services Committee leader Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) largely adopts the language proposed by the Air Force, which would fold all Guard units with space missions into the Space Force’s new hybrid full-time/part-time structure.

The bill does, however, differ from the Air Force proposal in a few ways:

It limits the number of personnel that could be transferred to “not more than 580 members of the Air National Guard.”

If any service member prefers to stay in the Guard, the bill would require the Air Force to provide retraining and reassignment to a different ANG job, instead of merely allowing it as laid out in the Air Force proposal.

The Space Force will be required to continue performing the mission of any transferred unit in the state where it currently resides, with the bill eliminating a provision of the legislative proposal that would have allowed the Air Force to move missions after it has informed and justified the move to Congress.

It remains to be seen whether these changes will be enough to stem the tide of criticism levied at the Air Force proposal—the National Guard Association of the United States, the governors from every state and territory, and 85 members of Congress have expressed opposition to the idea.

These critics have argued that the move would defy precedent and undermine governors’ authority over their National Guards and go against the wishes of Guardsmen, with internal surveys showing a majority do not want to transfer to the Space Force.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has insisted such fears are overblown, saying the number of affected personnel would be small and the Space Force will not force personnel to move. He and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman say the switch will provide more flexibility for the service and allow Guardians to move between full-time and part-time status.

A recently released Air Force analysis found that only nine ANG units would move to the Space Force, with 578 full-time and part-time billets. Those numbers are lower than what Space National Guard advocates have cited—the report says that Airmen who perform support functions would stay in the ANG no matter what.

POLITICO previously reported that Rogers, who supports the Air Force proposal, said, “unless it becomes apparent to me that it’s not going anywhere, it will be in [the NDAA] and then somebody can just try to take it out” during the House Armed Services Committee markup process.

Spokespeople for Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), who helped spearhead a letter from lawmakers criticizing the Air Force proposal, could not immediately offer a comment.

Even if the proposal makes it through the HASC markup process, it still must survive an amendment process in the full House and a negotiation with the Senate to make it into law.

Commercial Space

In the strategic forces subcommittee mark of the NDAA, there are three sections aimed at bolstering the Space Force’s relationship with commercial space companies.

The first would formally establish a Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR)—essentially a space version of the Air Force’s Civil Reserve Airlift Fleet, allowing the Space Force to use commercial satellites in times of crisis or conflict.

The exact nature of when the CASR could be called upon is left up to the Secretary of Defense, but the program’s establishment is likely to play a key role in the Space Force’s broader plans to work with the growing private sector in space. The service released its Commercial Space Strategy in April, and lawmakers included another provision in the draft NDAA encouraging the Space Force to expand the number of mission areas where it integrates commercial capabilities and requiring a yearly briefing on the strategy through 2029.

Finally, the draft NDAA proposes the creation of a pilot program of a “hybrid space architecture” for satellite communications—connecting military communications satellites with commercial ones across different orbits to improve resiliency. The bill includes $2 million for the demonstration.

A GPS III satellite in orbit. Courtesy of Lockheed Martin

Budget Moves

With the Space Force budget facing its first-ever reduction in 2025 after several years of rapid growth, the draft NDAA proposes cuts in authorized spending for research and development and procurement.

On the R&D side, the big cut is a $139 million reduction for classified programs. For procurement, the single big cut is to the GPS III Follow-On program, with a proposed drop from $647.2 million to $332.6 million.

In an accompanying explanation, lawmakers wrote that the reduction would eliminate one of the two proposed GPS IIIF satellites the Space Force wants to buy in 2025, because “the committee is concerned about the delays to launch currently available space vehicles and that the procurement funding is out of sync with the cadence of launch.”

The explanation also notes that the Space Force is exploring ideas for “building smaller, less expensive GPS space vehicles to augment the current architecture and provide distributed resiliency,” an initiative dubbed GPS Lite. Lawmakers expressed enthusiasm for the idea and are asking for a briefing with more details.

T-6 Instructor Pilot Dies After Ejection Seat Goes Off on the Ground

May 14, 2024 | By David Roza

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated with information identifying the pilot.

An Air Force instructor pilot died early in the morning on May 14 from injuries sustained when the pilot’s T-6A Texan II training plane ejection seat activated during ground operations the day before, the 82nd Training Wing at Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas, announced in a press release.

“An investigation into the cause of the incident is underway,” wrote the wing, which later identified the pilot as Capt. John Robertson, a member of the 80th Operations Support Squadron.

“This is a devastating loss for Captain Robertson’s family and loved ones, and for the entire 80th Flying Training Wing,” Col. Mitchell J. Cok, the acting wing commander, said in a statement. “Captain Robertson was a highly valued Airman and instructor pilot. Our deepest condolences go with all who knew and loved him.”

Cok thanked first responders on the base, who “immediately provided life-sustaining care” and “allowed time for Captain Robertson’s family to be at his side when he passed.”

The 82nd is the host unit at Sheppard, while the 80th Flying Training Wing runs the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training (ENJJPT) Program, a multinational school where students and instructors from across NATO learn and teach the basics of flying.

The wing flies the T-6, a two-seat propeller plane often used for basic aviation lessons in undergraduate pilot training, and the T-38, a two-seat jet typically used to teach future fighter and bomber pilots. Two years ago, 76 T-6s and 203 T-38s were grounded due to concerns about potentially faulty ejection seat parts. The grounding affected 40 percent of the T-38 fleet and 15 percent of the T-6 fleet.

At the time, Air Force Materiel Command said the explosive cartridges used in the ejection seats may suffer from “quality defects.” Each seat has multiple and redundant explosive cartridges. Two months after the stand-down, the Air Force had found no faulty cartridges on any of the T-6s, Breaking Defense reported at the time.

“Our primary concern is the safety of our Airmen and it is imperative that they have confidence in our equipment,” Maj. Gen. Craig Wills, then-head of the 19th Air Force, said at the time.

t-6 — T-6 Texan trainer aircraft line up for an elephant walk on April 7, 2023 at Sheppard Air Force Base, Tex. (U.S. Air Force courtesy photo)

The average age of the T-6 fleet is 17 years old, according to 2023 data. While spry compared to the T-38’s average age of about 56 years, senior Air Force leaders say the age of trainer aircraft is slowing down pilot production.

“From the time they [student pilots] are commissioned—because of the challenges we’re having with T-6 and T-38—we have a little bit of a backup. It can be as many as four years,” then-Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin told the House Armed Services Committee in 2023. “So almost an 18 month- to 24 month-wait just to get into pilot training.”

A T-6 made an emergency “belly flop” landing at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph, Texas, on April 3 after its pilot declared an in-flight emergency. No one was injured in the incident.

This is a developing story and will be updated as more details become available.

Canadian Defense Minister: China Spy Balloon Was ‘Wake-Up Call’ to Modernize

May 13, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Canada’s defense minister said a Chinese spy balloon‘s infamous weeklong path over North America in 2023 was a “wake-up call” for his country, as he shuttled around Washington to sell Ottawa’s bolstered defense strategy to his American allies.

“The balloon incident, I think, was a good wake-up call for all of us that we needed to do more,” Bill Blair told Air & Space Forces Magazine from the rooftop of the Canadian embassy during a news conference with the Capitol dome looming in the background May 13. “It really put a lot of energy behind NORAD modernization, for example, because we saw the limitation of our existing domain awareness assets.”

On May 13, Blair met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Pentagon and spoke to the military press corps before jetting to the Canadian Embassy for a think tank discussion attended by academics, aides, and defense attachés, pledging that Canada will be a more robust military power in the future.

Blair and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveiled “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defense” in April.

In 2023, Canada spent just 1.38 percent of gross domestic product on defense, far short of NATO’s two percent target. The government now says Canada’s defense spending will be 1.76 percent of GDP by 2029-2030—still short of NATO’s target. However, much of the investment is in capabilities that can help the U.S.

“Continental defense is the primary focus,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters of Canada’s plans last week, highlighting investments in airpower, over-the-horizon radar, and surveillance. “I’m very encouraged across the board with everything I’ve seen out of Canada.”

The plan includes $38.6 billion strengthen NORAD over the next 20 years. As Blair indicated, North America is no longer a sanctuary from nefarious aerial activity, highlighted by the Chinese spy balloon’s path over Alaska, Canada, and the continental United States in January and February of 2023.

“Some of the investments we are committed to making are in many ways justified by the concerns raised in that incident,” Blair said. “Standing up for the principle of integrity and sovereignty of borders also requires us to put action behind our words.”

While there has not been a foreign balloon incursion into the U.S. since, the new boss of NORAD, Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, has said Chinese aircraft could be flying near the U.S. airspace by the end of the year. China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” to the concern of U.S. officials and Blair, who repeatedly highlighted the threat of more Russian and Chinese submarines coming towards North America as global warming opens up waterways.

“There is a great deal of work that needs to be done between Alaska and Norway,” Blair said during a Defense Writers Group event. “A great deal of that responsibility is Canada’s. I’m absolutely committed now. It’s clearly articulated in our defensive policy update that we’re about to step into that space.”

As for aerial threats, Canada’s fighter fleet comprises aging, unreliable CF-18 Hornets and too few experienced pilots to operate them. After the Chinese balloon incident, what turned out to be a likely harmless balloon crossed into Canadian airspace in the days afterward. It was American F-22 Raptors, not Canadian fighters, that took the object out over Canada on Trudeau’s order. NORAD provides for the common defense of North America by the two countries’ militaries.

To bolster its own airpower capabilities after years of delayed modernization, Canada ordered 88 F-35s, its first purchase of the type, in 2023, despite having been a partner in the Joint Strike Fighter program—later dubbed the F-35—since the 1990s.

“I need to be able to fly new fighter jets that we’re acquiring into that space to fulfill my responsibilities,” Blair said. “I’ve got a lot of work to do and I’ve commitments to the United States that that we’re going to step up into that space. I want the Canadian Armed Forces to be persistently present in the north. I think even defending our own sovereignty requires more than occasionally flying a plane overhead.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Canadian Minister of National Defense Bill Blair participate in a bilateral exchange at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., May 13, 2024. DOD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza

Can the Air Force Do More to Shelter Its Aircraft from a Potential China Strike?

May 13, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

A group of lawmakers are pushing for the Pentagon to move with more urgency in fortifying ground protection of U.S. aircraft across the Indo-Pacific, arguing it is necessary to defend against the threat of China.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.)—the chair of the Select Committee on U.S.-China competition—Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and 13 other lawmakers all sent a letter last week to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro about the issue, comparing China’s investments in hardened aircraft shelters to the U.S. and asking for more information on the Air Force and Navy’s plans for such structures.

A hardened aircraft shelter (HAS), typically made of concrete or other durable materials, provides enhanced protection for aircraft against strikes. These shelters vary in size, from single-aircraft protection to modern facilities incorporating maintenance capabilities within the shelter.

“It would require weapons such as ground penetration or bunker buster bombs to breach these thick, reinforced concrete barriers,” Daniel Rice, China military and political strategy subject matter expert at the Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. He added that the shelters mitigate fragmentation from precision-guided bombs or other munitions aimed at damaging runways, therefore aircraft can survive even when an initial strike hits the runway, allowing for rapid runway repairs.

In the letter, lawmakers referenced ongoing research highlighting a disparity in the construction of hardened aircraft shelters between China and the U.S. According to the studies, China has built over 400 aircraft shelters in the last decade, compared to only 22 by the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region.

Lawmakers also cited a 2023 wargame conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies looking at a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which found that approximately 90 percent of aircraft losses for the U.S. would occur on the ground in the scenario, rather than from air combat. Rice echoed these concerns.

“If the Sino-U.S. relationship devolves into conflict, and there is some sort of preemptive or first strike on specifically U.S. facilities, the survivability factor that hardened aircraft shelters provide is currently highly lacking, while China maintains a more hardened and survivable posture with these shelters and underground facilities,” said Rice. “It also suggests that any strike against Chinese targets would likely be less effective or require more munitions to achieve similar effects.”

Rice stressed the urgency of building these shelters on a key location like Guam. Currently, there is no HAS on Guam, and the 22 shelters the Pentagon has built in the last 10 years in the region were limited to South Korea and Japan. Guam, a largely exposed island with no mountains, is often a favorable deployment site for costly assets like bombers and fighters for regional exercises.

“There are strategic assets in places such as Hawaii or Alaska, but there is also a much higher political cost for China to strike those locations,” said Rice. “Guam, on the other hand, while serving as a focal point for U.S. forces flowing in and out, it is not a U.S. state. So it is more vulnerable and less politically costly for China in the scenario of conflict.”

Lawmakers also noted a reduced DOD military construction budget for the Indo-Pacific region from fiscal 2023 to 2024. Of the Pentagon’s $15.7 billion budget for military construction worldwide in 2024, less than two percent is allocated for base resilience projects in the region. Rice, who has written about China’s expansion of hardened aircraft shelters, noted that building hardened aircraft shelters and bunkers is a cost-effective way that doesn’t require high-tech to protect limited forces.

“It depends on the project scale, but generally, it can be easily built within a year or two, as long as funding is available and contracts are in place to proceed with construction, along with the necessary workforce,” said Rice.

Given the large losses expected in a possible conflict with China and the costs of replacing existing aircraft with newer ones, the U.S. Air Force and other services should focus on the survivability of their current stocks, Rice said.

“If there is a conflict between China and the U.S., there’s always a high level of attrition between both sides,” said Rice. “It’s a losing fight in terms of cost proposition and then time to reconstitute the force that is used. So anything that we can do to help cost curve and resource curve is beneficial. And if you multiply that across numerous hardened shelters and underground facilities for other critical resources, such as fuel, that’s a huge win when you’re trying to flow forces that will help us sustain any sort of conflict or power projection into the area.”

In their letter, members of Congress requested the secretaries provide them with information by May 29 on:

What steps the Air Force and Navy have taken to bolster their passive defenses

What plans they have to build hardened aircraft shelters or underground bunkers in the Indo-Pacific

Whether they plan to request extra funding for those projects

Whether there are any ways to increase the speed of these military construction projects

USAF Will Retire, Not Repair, Damaged B-2; Fleet Shrinking to 19 Aircraft

May 13, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force has decided it is too expensive to fix the B-2A Spirit bomber that crashed at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., in December 2022, and will retire it from service, Air & Space Forces Magazine has confirmed. The decision is likely driven by the cost and duration of a potential repair.

An April force structure report issued by the Pentagon said the aircraft “is being divested in FY 2025 due to a ground accident/damage presumed to be uneconomical to repair.” No cost estimate was provided. Aviation Week was the first to report the notice.

The action will reduce the B-2 fleet to 19 aircraft, out of the 21 originally built. The Spirit is the Air Force’s only penetrating bomber, meaning it is able to get past a peer adversary’s integrated air defense system.

In 2010, another B-2 crashed at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. After months of effort, Airmen and Northrop Grumman personnel made it flyable and returned it to Northrop for full repair. That aircraft returned to service, but only after four years of work and a price estimated to be more than $100 million. At the time, the Air Force said it could not tolerate the loss of a single B-2, and that the effort required to bring the aircraft back to service was necessary and justified.

The Air Force’s fiscal 2025 budget request, along with a subsequent contract to Northrop Grumman to sustain the fleet, indicates that the B-2 fleet won’t serve very long after 2029. If the repairs needed on the December 2022 mishap aircraft are comparable to those required for the one that crashed at Guam, the Air Force likely decided the expense wasn’t worth the return, given that B-2 being retired would likely have only served a year or two before being replaced by the B-21.

The Air Force has only budgeted B-2 procurement and research and development through fiscal 2028, indicating it doesn’t plan to retain the type much beyond 2030. Northrop Grumman received a sustainment contract for the B-2 on May 3, valued at up to $7 billion, which only runs through 2029.

Asked if this funding profile maps the sunset of the B-2, an Air Force spokesperson said “the System Program Office determines the contract period of performance that best meets the needs of the effort. The Air Force remains committed to sustaining and modernizing the B-2 to maintain combat effectiveness until a sufficient number of B-21s are operational.”

Both R&D and procurement together for the B-2 are only estimated to be about $250 million through the future years defense plan, but the Northrop contract also includes depot maintenance and other sustainment.

As to how much of the $7 billion is expected to be exercised, the spokesperson said “the ceiling of the Flexible Acquisition and Sustainment Team (FAST) III contract is determined by the B-2 System Program Office … by several factors and is intended to provide the Air Force with the flexibility necessary to meet operational requirements. The ceiling is a not-to-exceed amount and is deliberately set to accommodate any possible modernization or sustainment efforts.”

The Air Force has declined to say whether B-2s will be replaced by new B-21 Raiders on a one-for-one basis as they become available, but phase-out of the B-2 by 2029 would align with the anticipated delivery of the first 21 B-21s, which will be built in five fixed-price lots.

The first B-21 flew last November, and Northrop received a low-rate initial production contract for the Raider in December.

The B-2 being divested crashed on Dec. 10, 2022. After the crew declared an undisclosed in-flight emergency, the aircraft landed, ran off the runway, and caught fire. It remained on the side of the runway for some time, shutting down B-2 operations at Whiteman for a week afterwards. The fleet was grounded—the service called it a “safety pause”—for six months as the accident was analyzed, but a cause was not disclosed. The Air Force said the rest of the B-2 fleet could fly if needed during the flying stand-down.

In September 2021, another B-2 made an emergency landing at Whiteman and, again, veered off the runway when the left landing gear collapsed. That aircraft was patched up enough at Whiteman to fly to Northrop’s California facilities for further repair.

One B-2 has been lost in service. In 2008, a Spirit crashed on takeoff at Andersen, the accident later attributed to condensation in the air data system which gave faulty indications of the aircraft’s attitude, prompting the computer to command an excessive pitch-up. The bomber stalled and crashed, but the crew ejected and survived.

While the B-2 fleet numbers 20 aircraft, not all of them are available for combat at any time. Typically, at least one is in long-term depot maintenance at Northrop while two or three more are in heavy maintenance at Whiteman, and up to two are in flight test at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. The Air Force has said it usually has 12-14 B-2s available for combat.

It hasn’t been decided yet what will be done with the condemned aircraft, a service spokesperson said. Depending on its condition, it might be used as a maintenance trainer, for engineering fit checks, or displayed, possibly at the Museum of the U.S. Air Force in Dayton, Ohio, or as a pole-mounted gate guard at Whiteman.

Biggest Space Flag Ever Takes On Operational Focus

May 13, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Force’s premier exercise was restructured and expanded for its latest iteration, as planners emphasized Guardians’ ability to integrate into a larger operational plan.

The thee-week Space Flag 24-1 brought together 400 participants at at Schriever Space Force Base, Colo., in April—up from 250 or so in the biggest prior Space Flag event.

“It is important that Space Flag expands,” Lt. Col. Scott Nakatani, commander of the 392nd Combat Training Squadron, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “It needs to expand to cover down all of the mission areas and those critical units that are preparing to be presented. So we expanded greatly. We definitely maxed out our spaces.”

Participants of SPACE FLAG 24-1 pose for a group photo at Schriever Space Force Base, Colo., April 19, 2024. U.S. Space Force photo by Judi Tomich

More than size, Space Flag also expanded beyond tactical training for the first time, include operational support for warfighters.

“Space Flag in the past has been tactical mission plan, tactical execution—plan, execute, plan, execute,” said Capt. Lane Murphy, exercise director. “So now it’s kind of transitioned to, instead of advanced training, it’s more operational readiness to execute effective support of an [operations] plan.”

In prior years, mission planning and execution were conducted on the tactical level, but this year, the entire first week was devoted to developing overarching operational plans, which were then passed on to mission commanders. The next two weeks focused on collaborative planning efforts from approximately 20 units across Space Operations Command to execute the plan, which were then tested in “fly-out” simulations against a thinking adversary, according to a Space Training and Readiness Command release.

“We did that to be more realistic,” Murphy said. By bringing planners and different operators together, he added, teams can see how their actions affect other units and adjust accordingly.

Nakatani declined to say exactly what scenarios Guardians faced in this Space Flag, but he did say they were meant to emphasize integration into broader operations.

“It was informed by two real world O-plans, and we based them off of the most likely and most dangerous intelligence assessments of how those O-plans would execute,” Nakatani said. “And this is the first time that we have gone down a hard O-plan-informed scenario. We may have previously seen tasks that would be called out in an O-plan make their way into Space Flag. But this is the first time that we ran down as though the forces were expected to support an ongoing operation.”

Space Flag’s evolution seeks to align the exercise with the Department of the Air Force’s broader effort to “re-optimize for great power competition,” Nakatani added. Back in February, the department announced among its 24 decision that it wanted to “conduct a series of nested exercises in Space Force that increase in scope and complexity, fit within a broader DAF-level framework, and are assessed through a Service-level, data-driven process to measure readiness.”

Space Flag was the first major example of that effort.

“Space Flag still teaches integrated mission planning, but it’s more focused on how those space forces come together into an integrated sortie to meet combatant commanders’ intent,” Nakatani said. “And all of that’s directly in line with our direct marching orders, our new direction from the secretary, from the CSO.”

U.S. Space Force Chief Master Sgt. Jacob Simmons, U.S. Space Command command senior enlisted leader, meets with participates of SPACE FLAG 24-1 at Schriever Space Force Base, Colo., April 17, 2024. U.S. Space Force photo by Judi Tomich

Air Force’s New ‘Doomsday’ Plane Will Be Converted from Korean Air Passenger Jets

May 10, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Sierra Nevada Corporation, which received the $13 billion contract in April to build the Air Force’s Survivable Airborne Operations Center fleet, has secured five Korean Air 747-8 passenger jets to host the system.

Reuters first reported the aircraft sale, valued at about $674 million, which was concluded May 8.

The aircraft were built circa 2015 and will be about 15 years old when the first ones enter USAF service. The specific tail numbers have not been disclosed, but most of the late-model 747-8s owned by Korean Air have been parked for at least two of the last five years during the worldwide slowdown in air traffic associated with the COVID pandemic. The aircraft will be delivered to SNC by the third quarter of 2025. The fully operational SAOC aircraft are scheduled for delivery by 2036.

The E-4B National Airborne Operations Center (NAOC)—known as “Nightwatch” or the “Doomsday plane”—is USAF’s four-aircraft fleet of flying command posts, each of which can command and control U.S. nuclear and conventional forces. It dates to the late 1970s/early 1980s and suffers from parts obsolescence, deteriorating reliability, and “vanishing vendor” syndrome. An E-4B usually transports the Secretary of Defense and his staff on long trips, but in recent months, that mission has frequently shifted to other aircraft as the E-4B’s availability has declined. The most recently published data from the Air Force pegs the E-4B’s mission availability at just over 55 percent.

An E-4B National Airborne Operations Center stands ready at Royal Air Force Mildenhall, England, April 12, 2023. The NAOC aircraft has several missions, both operational and training, which require travel to a wide variety of locations, both within the United States and around the world. (U.S. Force photo by Karen Abeyasekere/This image has been altered for security purposes

The Air Force has said it’s comfortable with using a “Commercial Derivative Aircraft” for the requirement, one that will be “hardened and modified to meet military requirements.”

The Nightwatch aircraft are heavily hardened against electromagnetic pulse and are structurally strengthened to keep flying if buffeted by a distant nuclear blast. The new aircraft will be similarly equipped and have redundant analog systems to ensure their continued operations in an EMP environment.

The amount of communications and other gear required for the mission necessitates a large, four-engined aircraft, but the two jumbo aircraft builders, Airbus and Boeing, have stopped building new A380 and 747 aircraft, respectively, that can contain the system, requiring SNC to buy secondhand aircraft.

Boeing, which is building the new “Air Force One,” bought 747-8s for that mission from a Russian charter company. Unlike the Korean Air jets, the ones that will serve as Air Force One never carried passenger traffic. There will be commonality between the SAOC jets and Air Force One.

It’s not clear if SNC will build five SAOC aircraft or replace the existing fleet of four Nightwatch jets on a one-for-one basis and use the fifth airplane for engineering mockup, fit and installation checks. The Air Force had said it might buy up to 10 Nightwatch jets. The company did not respond to queries.

SNC will do at least some of the conversion work at Dayton, Ohio, where it has a hangar sized to accommodate 747-8s.

The SAOC is required to be developed with an open systems architecture that will allow other companies to compete for future upgrades to its systems, and the Air Force will own the technical baseline for the system.

Service and industry officials said Boeing was ruled out of the SAOC competition late last year when it wouldn’t agree on data rights/intellectual property aspects of the contract or accept fixed-pricing on some aspects of the system. Boeing has in recent years lost more than $8 billion on the KC-46 tanker, MQ-25 Stingray carrier-based Navy tanker, and the Air Force T-7 Red Hawk trainer, all of which are fixed-price contracts.

The SAOC buy marks the second time the Air Force will have acquired secondhand passenger jets to fulfill a vital mission. In the 1990s, the service bought Boeing 707s that had served with Iran Air and converted them to become the E-8 Joint STARS fleet. Although high-time aircraft, the Air Force reasoned that the aircraft could be overhauled to “zero time.” In practice, the JSTARS fleet suffered from far greater structural fatigue and corrosion than other types. The 707 was chosen to achieve a degree of commonality with the KC-15, E-3 AWACS and RC-135 Rivet Joint fleets.

Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told the Senate Appropriations Committee on May 8 that the SAOC is needed to ensure “we have a viable platform that we can sustain from a maintenance standpoint.”

“At some point,” Brown said, “it gets more costly to maintain than to move into a new capability.”

Brown said the SAOC will not merely be a fresher version of the Nightwatch, but will have “the most advanced capabilities that the nation has to offer.”

In its fiscal 2025 budget proposal, the Air Force asked Congress for $1.69 billion for SAOC development.