Looking to the Future of Electromagnetic Attack Systems

Oct. 1, 2024 | By Adam Stone

In high-end conflict with peer adversaries, the U.S. Air Force faces sophisticated integrated air defense systems and advanced command and control networks. Defeating those systems will require advanced electromagnetic attack systems that can deny, degrade, and disrupt opposing forces.

“Peer-nation adversaries have more sophisticated anti-access area denial capabilities—A2/AD—with kill chains or kill webs that are no longer stagnant,” said Stephanie Fehling, director of electronic attack solutions at BAE Systems. “They’re increasingly more complex and resilient. They’re using a much broader range of the electromagnetic spectrum for their combat operations, and they’re also quickly adapting commercial technologies for use in their operations.”

That changes what success looks like. It’s no longer a matter of using the electromagnetic spectrum, but also “denying our adversary’s use of that same spectrum,” Fehling said. “This is where electromagnetic jamming comes into play, using the spectrum to deny, degrade and disrupt enemy communications — really preventing them from transmitting essential information between themselves, their weapon systems, and their control networks, while preserving our own use of the spectrum.”

To defeat A2/AD strategies and systems, U.S. forces will need a combination of platforms and capabilities, both built-into fighter aircraft and standoff jammers that contribute from afar.

“In order for other platforms to perform their mission, we need to provide simultaneity, persistence, and computing resources — and of course power,” Fehling said. “That’s what a standoff jammer brings to the fight. It’s the base layer or foundation…required to dominate the spectrum.”

BAE Systems is involved in rehosting the Compass Call mission from its original long-time host, the EC-130H, to a Gulfstream 550 business jet. The new EA-37B —the EA is for electronic attack—is the Air Force’s premiere airborne electronic attack weapon system,” Fehling said.

The Compass Call mission “is to disrupt enemy command and control, communications, radars, and navigation systems,” Fehling said. “It’s there to restrict our enemy’s battlespace coordination.”

The new G550 jet platform is superior in almost every way, she added: “A platform that can fly faster, farther, and higher makes that whole team more effective, more lethal, and more survivable.”

Advances in technology are changing the way leaders look at platforms like Compass Call, Fehling said. “The Department of Defense is shifting from purchasing platforms to purchasing capabilities,” she explained. “Industry needs to adapt and provide platform-agnostic capabilities, modular payloads with open system architecture.”

Rapid advances in software and the underlying hardware mean next-generation electromagnetic attack systems will integrate new capabilities into operational systems more readily, Fehling said. The Sensor Open Systems Architecture, or SOSA, will help make that possible. SOSA-compliant hardware will enable rapid upgrades to fielded capabilities, “minimizing the time required to bring important performance improvements to bear,” she said. Those could include instantaneous bandwidth changes, expanded, dynamic range, or faster processing speeds.

Likewise, a recently developed services-based open software architecture makes it possible to containerize applications, enabling more rapid app updates. “Designing an application to a common interface allows a broader segment of industry to participate,” Fehling said. “So that we can put the best of the best in the hands of the warfighter.”

In this modular environment, designers are handed hardware development kits and software development kits to design their applications using a services-based open software architecture. “This can be really important for a unique requirement or an urgent requirement. It really speaks to the agility that we need to outpace the threat,” she said.

With an open-standards approach, USAF will be better positioned to counter the rapidly evolving threats in the electromagnetic spectrum.

Anduril, in New Partnership, Takes Aim at Space

Oct. 1, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Anduril, the Silicon Valley defense startup that’s made a splash as a finalist in the Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, now aims to get into the space business, as well.

The company announced a partnership with fellow startup Apex on Oct. 1; aiming to build payloads for Apex’s configurable satellite buses and to become a systems integrator for the platform.

In a conference call with reporters, both Anduril’s top space executive, Gokul Subramanian, and Apex Chief Executive, Ian Cinnamon, made clear that they are interested in helping the Pentagon and intelligence community to proliferate their satellite constellations.

“We believe in more mass in space,” said Subramanian. “We believe in higher quantity, higher volume, lower cost systems, and doing more and more autonomous processing in space.”

Cinnamon also called for “getting more attritable mass to orbit, getting a higher volume of systems out, and at an incredibly faster pace than we’re historically used to.”

Subramanian declined to name specific programs or opportunities of interest to Anduril, but given that Apex’s satellite buses are intended for low-Earth orbit, one likely target is the Space Force’s Space Development Agency. SDA’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, now under construction, will be a network of small satellites in low-Earth orbit, comprised of satellites for both data transport and missile warning and tracking.

“We’re a big believer in what the Space Development Agency is doing,” Subramanian said. “With regard to which missions we’ll go after, I’m not ready to disclose that yet, but … we are going to compete on missions where we feel like Anduril can provide a superior solution or a real advantage to the customer.”

In a release, Anduril noted that it wants to deliver “rapid capability” in areas like “space situational awareness, proliferated LEO architectures, and missile warning and tracking.”

Subramanian told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the firm intends to compete for work from the entirety of the Space Force and the Intelligence Community.

In doing so, however, the company will face fierce competition, with a host of startups joining well-established prime contractors jockeying for work. SDA’s entire program is designed to leverage that competition, and it has so far awarded contracts to 10 vendors for its proliferated architecture.

SDA is also moving fast, awarding deals for the program’s first two tranches and having already released a notice to industry about Tranche 3.

Anduril thinks it can start competing for contracts faster by leveraging Apex’s architecture and by focusing on “missionized systems, software on unique payloads, all of those things,” Subramanian said.

The two companies collaborated on an Anduril payload for an Apex satellite in March; Subramanian described the payload as a “mission data processor,” giving the satellite edge processing capability.

“What we aim to prove is the ability for us to take images using the cameras that the spacecraft had, those were not provided by us, process those images, and we can do all sorts of on-orbit processing, actually manipulate the image on orbit, understand what we’re seeing and what we’re not seeing, and then downlink that data down to earth,” Subramanian said.

The firm’s core autonomy software, Lattice, provides command and control for the satellite, directing it where to move, where to focus its sensors, and how to process the data.

In 2025, Anduril plans to launch a satellite procured from Apex and upgraded with mission data processing and “infrared imaging capabilities,” according to a release.

Besides satellites, Anduril is also wading into other space business. On Sept. 27, Space Systems Command awarded the company a $25 million contract to create a mesh network for the Space Surveillance Network, the group of radar and optical sensors used to monitor thousands of objects in orbit.

“Traditionally, those systems have had a single way to communicate,” Subramanian said. “Those tend to be slow, they can be fragile, and what we’re doing is augmenting them with multiple modalities of communication … and offering our mesh networking technology to enable that data to get off the site, off the sensor site, and to where it needs to go.”

Founded in 2017 and backed by venture capital, Anduril initially focused on autonomous systems and accompanying software. More recently, it has made an aggressive push into multiple markets. In addition to its well-publicized work on CCAs, Anduril unveiled a new “family” of low-cost cruise missiles in September. The company is also working on an unmanned autonomous underwater vehicle, solid rocket motor supply, and a reusable autonomous air vehicle for ground defense.

Lockheed Gets $3.5 Billion for JASSM/LRASM Missiles as It Eyes ‘Extreme Range’ Variant

Sept. 30, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Lockheed Martin received two Air Force contracts on Sept. 27, together worth $3.56 billion, for production of the AGM-58B Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and the AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile, the Pentagon announced. The contracts include missiles for the Air Force, Navy, and partner nations under the Foreign Military Sales program.

The company also recently unveiled plans for a larger variant of the missile with even longer range, called the JASSM-XR.

An Air Force spokesperson could not immediately say how many missiles are included under the contracts nor how many are for USAF and how many are for the Navy and FMS customers, but the larger contract, for $3.23 billion, covers JASSM Lot 22 and is to be completed by the end of July 2032. The Air Force said the quantities are “estimates only” as the contract is undefinitized.

The Air Force procurement portion of the larger contract was worth $1.5 billion, along with $2.1 million of operations and maintenance funding, while the Navy’s portion was $176 million and FMS was $752 million. The FMS portion includes missiles for Japan, the Netherlands, Finland, and Poland.

The smaller contract, worth $358.4 million, is a modification of Lot 8b of LRASM only. The Air Force portion was $145.5 million, while the Navy’s was $123.3 million, and the contract is to be completed by July 31, 2028.

The stealthy JASSM and LRASM are externally almost identical and have a 1,000-pound warhead.

The work for both contracts is to be performed at Lockheed’s Orlando, Fla., facilities. The Air Force’s Life Cycle Management Center awarded the contracts.

Lockheed officials said they are producing about 720 JASSMs per year, en route to about 1,100. The JASSM is one of several munitions for which the Air Force accelerated funding and production in its fiscal 2025 budget request.

An Airman assigned to Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, loads a joint air-to-surface standoff missiles into a 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron B-1B Lancer on the flightline at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, May 9, 2020. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. David Scott-Gaughan

At AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference on Sept. 16, Lockheed announced it is working on the JASSM-XR, for “Extreme Range.”

The new missile is being developed by Lockheed with its own funds and features a missile body extended by several feet, the additional volume of which would be used for fuel. The company declined to state the exact dimensions of the missile or its expected range.

Michael Rothstein, vice president for strategy and requirements for air weapons and sensors at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, said in a press conference at AFA that the range would be expanded “significantly” beyond that of the JASSM-ER, the Air Force’s current standard, adding the increase “is not minor.” The JASSM-ER reportedly has a range of about 500 miles, and industry sources speculated that the XR’s additional fuel capacity could double that to about 1,000 miles.

Lockheed officials at the conference said they are trying to anticipate what the Air Force will need relative to JASSM and LRASM and be ready when the service asks for it. Longer range “is an obvious ask,” one said, and the service is not interested in incremental improvements, but “step changes,” he said.

Rothstein said the missile could be test-flown in 2026 but is still “several years out” from being ready for production. Lockheed is “positioning” itself for a longer-range requirement, he said.

The additional range of the weapon would allow the U.S. to not just strike targets deeper within contested airspace, Rothstein said, but accelerate battle tempo, by allowing launch aircraft to fire sooner and return to a tanker or base right more quickly to reload and mount another sortie.

A Lockheed spokesperson said the XR “lays the groundwork for a more modular design, driving continuous improvements to capacity, capability, and commonality across missile variants, and providing low-risk, low-cost solutions to the government.” The spokesperson noted that the XR is not yet government-funded “or approved.”

The XR would have significant commonality with the JASSM-ER and LRASM, the spokesperson said, and could be carried by bombers, the F-35, F-15, and the F/A-18, but not the F-16. Because of its increased weight versus the standard JASSM or LRASM, If carried by a fighter, the aircraft’s range would be decreased, Rothstein said, but that would be offset by the missile’s longer range.

Modular, “smart” design can accelerate the overall JASSM/LRASM family production rate, Rothstein said, adding that the company has so far received positive feedback from the Air Force that a much longer-ranged weapon that takes advantage of a hot production line and gets to the field relatively quickly would be welcome.

The JASSM and LRASM are being built on “a mature” production line, Rothstein said, with qualified vendors and components, which means “you can markedly decrease your developments costs” and “development timelines” on a variant.

To take the JASSM/LRASM “to the next stage,” Rothstein said the company is looking for ways to increase modularity and digital design of the missile.

First Guardian Launches into Space Aboard NASA Mission

Sept. 30, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

For the first time in the Space Force’s young history, an Active-Duty Guardian launched into orbit this weekend, where he will take on a NASA mission at the International Space Station.

Space Force Col. Nick Hague commanded NASA’s Crew-9 mission, which launched Sept. 28 atop a SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla.

Hague was accompanied by crewmate Aleksandr Gorbunov, a cosmonaut from the Russian space agency Roscosmos. Originally, Crew-9 was set to have four members, but two seats were left vacant to return home a pair of astronauts on the ISS whose Boeing Starliner spacecraft made an unmanned return to Earth due to safety concerns.

“Alex and I had a smooth ride up here,” said Hague upon arrival at the ISS. “I know it’s going to be an amazing expedition, I’m really looking forward to getting to work up here.”

Hague and Gorbunov joined five other crew members at the space station for NASA’s mission ‘Expedition 72,’ both serving as flight engineers for five months. The mission includes conducting experiments on various topics, such as life support systems and genetic analysis.

“I feel privileged to have the opportunity to cast a broader spotlight on everything that Guardians do to make human space flight possible,” Hague said in a release.

United States Space Force Col. Nick Hague, NASA astronaut, listens to U.S. Space Force Col. Ernest Schmitt, Space Delta 4 commander, speak on the DEL 4 mission and capabilities at Buckley Space Force Base, March 28, 2024. Hague will be the first Space Force Guardian launched into space under the Astronaut Corps.(U.S. Space Force photo by Senior Airman Shaun Combs)

Guardians don’t typically operate in space, but the Space Force does plays a crucial role in supporting spaceflight through GPS satellite operations, space domain awareness, and launch operations.

“If the Space Force and its Guardians and U.S. Space Command are not doing their jobs, we don’t explore space,” said Hague. “The average person might not understand that human space flight doesn’t exist if Guardians aren’t doing what they do on a day-to-day basis, whether it’s launching us into space and the range support that we get there or it’s tracking or navigation.”

One key study Hague is exploring revolves around Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS), a condition that clouds astronauts’ vision while they’re floating in space. This condition arises from the very low gravity environment experienced in orbit. Hague will participate in two studies led by NASA scientists to better understand and address SANS.

Thigh Cuff Study: Hague will wear fitted thigh cuffs for six hours in two sessions to see if they help keep fluids in the legs and reduce head swelling. He’ll use ultrasounds to monitor blood flow and compare the results to data collected without the cuffs.

Vitamin B Supplement Study: In this study, the Guardian will test whether daily vitamin B supplements can reduce eye swelling related to SANS and explore how genetics may influence individual responses.

“Hague’s experiences and research may potentially lead to scientific breakthroughs that may not be possible on Earth,” said Steven Platts, chief scientist for human research at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Additionally, the Guardian will collect data on motion sickness during launch and landing and participate in other studies to help NASA tackle various challenges, including preventing injuries during re-entry.

A 1999 graduate of the Air Force Academy, Hague has a bachelor’s degree in astronautical engineering and later earned a master’s degree in aeronautical and astronomical engineering from MIT. He then attended the Air Force Test Pilot School at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. Upon graduating in 2004, he joined the 416th Flight Test Squadron, putting F-16, F-15, and T-38 aircraft through their paces. He was finally able to join NASA in 2013 to begin astronaut candidate training.

“I applied three times to become an astronaut, I got rejected twice,” said Hague. “It took me 10 years.”

This marks Hague’s third launch and second mission at the space station, albeit his first as a member of the Space Force. His first attempt to reach orbit in 2018 ended abruptly when a rocket booster malfunctioned, but the spacecraft made a safe landing. The following year, he successfully reached the ISS, where he served as a flight engineer for more than six months during NASA’s Expeditions 59 and 60 missions.

After returning home from the NASA’s mission in 2019, Hague served as the director of test and evaluation for the Space Force at the Pentagon. He officially transferred to become a Guardian in 2021.

“NASA and the Space Force have very different functions, but we share a common interest in the free and responsible use of the space domain,” said Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall. “We also share an understanding of the importance of integrating with our allies and partners, joining Guardian values to civil space objectives for the collective good.”

Hague is not the first Guardian in space; Col. Michael Hopkins took that honor when he transferred into the Space Force in 2020 while aboard the International Space Station.

VIDEO: Russian Fighter Cuts Off US F-16 During NORAD Intercept

Sept. 30, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

A Russian Su-35 fighter cut across the front of a U.S. Air Force F-16 conducting a routine intercept of Russian aircraft off the coast of Alaska in a dramatic incident Sept. 23. The U.S. military called the encounter “unsafe,” and said the Russian aviator’s actions were “unprofessional and endangered all.”

The U.S. F-16, which was assigned to North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), made the intercept in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in international airspace. Video and images released by NORAD show the F-16 shadowing a Russian Tu-95 before a Su-35 fighter cuts across the nose of the F-16 in what is known as a “headbutt” maneuver.

“NORAD aircraft flew a safe and disciplined intercept of Russian Military Aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ,” NORAD commander Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot said in a statement posted on social media. “The conduct of one Russian Su-35 was unsafe, unprofessional, and endangered all–not what you’d see in a professional air force.”

The pilot of the U.S. Air Force F-16, which had a video camera mounted inside, can be heard exclaiming in apparent surprise as the Su-35 Flanker raced past them. The U.S. F-16 appeared to be carrying AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles.

The F-16 is likely from the 18th Fighter Interceptor Squadron, based at Eielson Air Force Base. That is the Viper unit tasked with conducting many of the intercepts of Russian—and recently Chinese—aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ. Russian aircraft entered the Alaskan ADIZ four times in September, according to NORAD. The Sept. 23 intercept involved four Russian aircraft, the command said in a news release at the time.

“We’re postured well to respond when those forces come into the Air Defense Identification Zone of Alaska, and you’ve seen that play out,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Case Cunningham, the head of the Alaskan NORAD Region, Alaskan Command, and the 11th Air Force, told Air & Space Forces Magazine in an interview earlier this month.

The Russian and Chinese flights were all in international airspace as the Alaska ADIZ stretches beyond American and Canadian territory, and ADIZ intercepts around the world often occur, including intercepts of American aircraft.

The Russian Air Force has previously shown it is ready to engage in aggressive tactics, most notably in Syria in which Russian aircraft came close to U.S. fighters, surveillance aircraft, and drones in 2023, though that behavior appears to have decreased this year in the Middle East.

“The biggest risk for all of us is these aircraft are not flying on training missions; they’re on combat missions,” then-Air Forces Central commander Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich said of the incidents over Syria in June 2023. “Our aircraft have live weapons on board; the Russian aircraft have live weapons on board. And this kind of behavior just really increases the risk of a miscalculation, some sort of an incident occurring that’s unintentional.”

In July 2023, Russian Su-35 aircraft damaged two U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones with flares when they passed in front of the drones. That incident came just months after the U.S. was forced to crash an MQ-9 into the Black Sea in March 2023 after a Russian Su-27 clipped the drone’s propeller, rendering the Reaper unrecoverable, according to the U.S. military.

Moody, MacDill Still Closed in Wake of Hurricane Helene

Sept. 30, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Most base services remained closed at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., and Moody Air Force Base, Ga., Sept. 30, four days after Hurricane Helene battered the southeast with high winds and torrential rains. Only mission-essential personnel are allowed on base as recovery operations continue.

MacDill, which sits just a few feet above sea level near Tampa Bay experienced flooding in low-lying areas, widespread power outages, and masses of debris on roads, base officials posted on social media.

Col. Ed Szczepanik and Chief Master Sgt. Raun M. Howell, the commander and command chief of the 6th Air Refueling Wing, said in a video message that some sections of the base—including dorms and base housing—would be temporarily without power Sept. 30 as personnel worked to restore electricity to the whole installation.

Official and unofficial images posted to social media show the road leading to U.S. Central Command headquarters underwater, and no “C” on the “MACDILL AFB” sign on a hangar, the letter having been blown off by the winds.

Szczepanik and Howell said the base would remain closed “at least” through Sept. 30. Later, officials posted to Facebook that on-base housing/dormitory residents and those with scheduled medical appointments will be allowed on base Oct. 1

MacDill evacuated its KC-135 tankers ahead of the storm. A spokesperson for the 6th Air Refueling Wing told Air & Space Forces Magazine on Sept. 30 the aircraft have not returned, though “global operations have not been interrupted and our aircraft and personnel are still conducting missions from alternate stations until they can safely return to our airfield.”

The 23rd Wing at Moody was in the storm’s direct path, and 23rd Wing Commander Col. Ben Rudolphi posted on Facebook that the installation remained closed to non-essential personnel “until further notice.” Rudolphi imposed a 5 p.m.-9 a.m. curfew to minimize the workload for law enforcement.

Tens of thousands of households in Lowndes County, where Moody is located, remain without power, and trees and power lines are downed throughout the area. According to local media reports, many residents lack gas and access to clean water.

On Sept. 30, Rudolphi issued a limited evacuation order “due to uninhabitable living conditions” in the area. That order is in effect through Oct. 6.

Moody evacuated its A-10, MC-130, and HH-60 aircraft ahead of the storm. Officials did not reply to a query about their current locations.

Other bases in the region are back to work. Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla.; Eglin Air Force Base, Fla.; and Robins Air Force Base, Ga., all escaped the storm with minimal damage.

US Sending More Air Force Fighters to Middle East

Sept. 30, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. military is ordering additional U.S. Air Force fighters to the Middle East after Israel launched punishing attacks on Lebanese Hezbollah and killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The U.S. will send three additional squadrons of fighter and attack aircraft to the region: an F-16 Fighting Falcon squadron, an F-15E Strike Eagle squadron, and an A-10 Thunderbolt II squadron, Air & Space Forces Magazine has learned. The U.S. is also extending the deployment of current aircraft units in the Middle East to increase the overall number of fighters and attack aircraft in the region, officials said.

The U.S. has pledged to defend Israel from retaliation from Iran, which backs Hezbollah, for the killing of Nasrallah. American F-15Es and F-16s helped Israel fend off a massive Iranian missile and drone attack in April by shooting down some 80 drones.

The U.S. already has F-22 air superiority fighters in the Middle East, which it sent to the region in August. They will continue their deployment.

The Pentagon previously announced that it is keeping the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, which carries F-35C Lightning II and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters, in the Middle East.

Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Sept. 30 that more aircraft and an “additional few thousand” U.S. personnel were heading to the region.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III “believes that that is the best way for our forces in the region to have the defense that they need, and, of course, if needed to come to the defense of Israel,” Singh said.

The USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier deployed last week from Virginia and is expected to head to the Mediterranean Sea. The USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship that carries AV-8 Harrier attack planes, V-22 Ospreys tiltrotor aircraft, and some 2,200 Marines and Sailors from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, is operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“This afloat posture is complemented by DOD’s elevated fighter and attack squadron presence, including F-22, F-15E, F-16, and A-10 aircraft, and we will further reinforce our defensive air-support capabilities in the coming days,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said in a Sept. 29 statement.

 F-16s from the 510th Fighter Squadron at Aviano Air Base, Italy, and F-15Es from the 335th Fighter Squadron at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., first deployed to the region in April of this year.

The U.S. boosted the number of warplanes in the region following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel by arranging for current units to temporarily extend their deployments so that they overlapped with the incoming forces. The U.S. also conducted such a move in April before Iran attacked Israel.

Singh confirmed the Pentagon was lengthening the deployment of current units while new aircraft came in as part of its move to increase airpower in the region.

“This includes a certain number of units already deployed to the Middle East region that will be extended, and the forces due to rotate into theater to replace them will now instead augment the in-place forces already in the region,” Singh told reporters.

“The Secretary also increased the readiness of additional U.S. forces to deploy, elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies and DOD maintains robust and integrated air defense capabilities across the Middle East region, ensuring the protection of U.S. forces operating in the region,” she added.

The U.S. had already deployed a small number of additional ground troops to the region before Israel’s killing of Nasrallah, which occurred in a Sept. 27 airstrike by F-15Is from the Israeli Air Force.

In a statement, Austin said he spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant on Sept. 30 and “reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel.”

Modeling Solar Weather Better and Faster for Decision Advantage

Sept. 30, 2024

Imagine you’re operating a network of ground sensors to track objects in orbit, and you’re successful in identifying a newly launched adversarial satellite. It was launched into very low Earth orbit (vLEO) at an altitude of 350 kilometers, and intelligence suggests it is a reconnaissance satellite with high maneuver capability.

Suddenly a strong solar flare occurs, heating Earth’s atmosphere and increasing the drag force on the satellite, causing it to drop into a lower orbit which you’re now scrambling to find.

“It’s already very challenging for satellite operators to fly their own satellites during a solar storm in LEO, so imagine how hard it is to keep track of a noncooperative maneuvering satellite in the same conditions,” says Matt Shouppe, a leader in Booz Allen’s space business. “Our adversaries know that when their satellites can’t be seen, that’s the best time to maneuver, deploy a covert payload, or perform some other operation they don’t want the U.S. to know about.”

Building on Open-Source Research

Having an accurate space weather forecast would help better predict the effects of drag, a game-changer for satellite operators. “But predicting what the sun is going to do 12, 24, or 48 hours from now is a long-standing challenge,” Matt says.

To better predict solar phenomena, weather professionals are turning to machine learning (ML). A major source is NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which images the sun every 12 seconds and makes extensive data available to train algorithms.

Open-source resources include not only data like SDO’s images, but also technologies to train them on. “Multiple researchers have been developing computer vision modeling techniques for solar phenomena. That allows today’s researchers to stand on their shoulders, so to speak,” says Dr. Jeremy Bundgaard, a Booz Allen physicist who advances the company’s space solutions. “Scientists can say, ‘What hasn’t yet been tried?’ and experiment.”

Using an Autoencoder for Machine Learning

Autoencoders present an intriguing option to speed up machine learning for solar events. These neural networks can compress and represent unlabeled data for unsupervised learning. Highly efficient, the models can detect anomalies and patterns rapidly.

“Our team adapted a transformer autoencoder training scheme to apply ML faster to publicly available data,” Jeremy says. The team has ingested the SDO Machine Learning Dataset—300,000 images taken over 10 years, in nine very high-resolution wave bands. The bands are indicative of specific chemical lines in the sun that correlate strongly with the radiation that will impinge the Earth.

“You can see sunspots and the flares and train the model on that imagery data to make a more accurate prediction of what the sun is going to do next,” says Jeremy.

“Open source keeps the door wide open for research,” says Ginny Cevasco, a senior vice president in Booz Allen’s national security business. “It gives scientists the opportunity to make better use of the data that’s already out there.”

Continual Improvement for Increased Accuracy

The approach is attractive partly because it can be made extensible, leveraged to continually grow. “Once you have the solar model, then anything that’s coincident in time for which you have good data, you can build in,” says Jeremy. “We can build pipelines—like DevOps pipelines, only they don’t degrade. Any additional high-quality data you have, as long as you have an overlap in time, will increase the accuracy.”

For example, if an organization launches a large constellation of satellites to measure atmospheric density with high precision or higher coverage, the team could immediately connect the autoencoder to that data stream and train on it as well.

Additional data such as solar indices, which measure the sun’s activity, and geomagnetic data can also be added. After all the data sources are onboarded, researchers can build a new model using the autoencoder. They can then correlate this model with models that measure the atmospheric drag which solar weather imposes on satellites.

“We can seed the resulting model into an atmospheric model, which in turn seeds an orbit determination model so we can more accurately predict a satellite’s position and velocity,” Jeremy says. That data can then be plugged in as one unified, information-rich source to make other solutions more precise—like Booz Allen’s i2S2, which is built on an open framework to pull in external space data applications.

“Optimizing an autoencoder to focus on one part of the overall drag model challenge shows the power of open-source innovation,” says Ginny. “When someone makes better use of the publicly available data, it helps space work better for everybody.”

Ginny Cevasco is a leader in the national security space business at Booz Allen.

Matt Shouppe is an expert in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Domain Awareness (SDA) at Booz Allen.

Dr. Jeremy Bundgaard is an AI and machine learning data science expert at Booz Allen.

The Berlin Airlift: An Example to Emulate 75 Years Later

Sept. 29, 2024 | By Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula USAF (Ret.) and Douglas A. Birkey

Sept. 30 marks the 75th anniversary of the end of the Berlin Airlift. In the first victory of the Cold War, U.S. and U.K. Airmen flew 278,000 sorties, rescuing the people of West Berlin from starvation by blockade after Soviet forces cut off all ground access to the city. Those flights poured in 2.3 million tons of provisions, mostly food and fuel, over 15 stressful months.

Yet the strategic significance of this crucial air campaign was far greater than a massive aerial moving job. The Berlin Airlift demonstrated the criticality of harnessing prudent national security solutions when options are limited and the stakes are incredibly high. Such circumstances abound today.

While the 75th anniversary of the Berlin Airlift’s end deserves to be commemorated as a tremendous achievement, there is no guarantee we could execute such an operation today—a reality that demands attention and action. Legitimate questions regarding decisive national leadership, clear security strategies, and military depth and readiness loom over us today at a time when the U.S. arguably faces a more complex and challenging world than ever before in history.

The roots of the Berlin Airlift extend to the end of World War II, when the allies divided Germany into zones of occupation. A section of Berlin overseen by the Western allies was surrounded by a region under Soviet control. On June 24, 1948, the Soviets blockaded the city in a bid to seize control, effectively threatening to starve the city’s 2 million inhabitants until the allies capitulated.

President Harry S. Truman made a decisive call: “We stay in Berlin, period.”

Realizing that objective was far less clear, however. Initial military options included a direct attack to reopen a key highway corridor. But as this course might invite World War III, it was quickly dismissed. Airlift became the answer not due to raw power, but because it could achieve the ultimate objective: to overcome the blockade.

The airlift was an unprecedented and audacious undertaking: a non-stop parade of cargo aircraft touching down at Berlin’s Tempelhof airport every 45 seconds. Armed with Truman’s clear intent, a viable airlift strategy, and significant airlift capacity that remained in the wake of World War II, the western Allies had the tools to make it work. Individual discipline, dedication to duty, and sacrifice on the part of the aircrews did the rest.

That is what we celebrate today, 75 years later.

But the enduring tenets of that success stand apart from realities we see in today’s U.S. security enterprise.

America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan three years ago signaled the world’s despots that American will is not what it once was. Adversaries took note and have called the U.S. deterrent bluff. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s aggression in the South Pacific, and Iran’s coordinated attacks via Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis should all be seen in the light of that catastrophic failure. The Houthis—relative to world powers, a flea on the tail of an ally cat—shut down the Red Sea to international commerce with no significant consequence. North Korea continues to develop its nuclear arsenal. In each case, the U.S. has responded reactively, rather than through decisive national leadership.

The notion of will directly ties to strategy. Too often these days, we see reluctant U.S. policy approaches that cede the initiative to opponents. Deterrence—the avoidance of conflict through the credible threat of a forceful response—only works if adversaries clearly believe they are held under threat. In no sport can a team win through defense alone. There comes a point where offense must come into play in order to win the contest.

These days, however, America is lacking in its ability to field an effective offense, whether measured in capability or capacity. The U.S. Air Force—descendants of the Airmen who executed the Berlin Airlift—is now the smallest and oldest in its history. Readiness is at dangerously low levels. Today’s Airmen would be significantly resource challenged to execute a major sustained operation on the scale of a 21st century version of the Berlin Airlift. Our Space Force is likewise under-resourced. So too is our Navy.

The United States must reset and rebuild the capacity and capability to answer and deter the threats now facing the nation.

A photo from the inside of Reach 871, a U.S. Air Force C-17 flown from Kabul, Afghanistan, to Qatar on Aug. 15, 2021. USAF

The good news is that a reset is possible and the case for action is abundantly clear. America faces an array of adversaries whose objectives are directly opposed to our interests and values. Russia persists in its war of attrition against Ukraine, rattling the nuclear card as a means to deter Ukraine’s suppliers from removing limits on how western arms are used. China is designing a force expressly to counter and defeat the United States. Iran is doing all in its power to sew division throughout the Middle East.

These rivals are playing for keeps. National leadership must respond accordingly, which includes articulating the case for action to the American public. As the Berlin Airlift proved, strength is an essential pre-condition if we want to preserve peace in a very dangerous world.

The time has come as well to reinforce decisive leadership in the military. It is time to stop focusing on what adversaries are doing to us and instead pursue strategies that seize the initiative. This does not necessarily mean direct conflict, but it certainly means clearly stating positions, holding to them, and playing to win. Otherwise, U.S. credibility will be shattered.

Above all, we must sufficiently resource our men and women in uniform to answer the challenges they face. If we ask them to risk the ultimate sacrifice, we must do all in our power to equip them for success—not forgo advanced technological capability because of self-imposed and arbitrary budget caps.

America met the moment 75 years ago. The Soviets relented and the routes into West Berlin were reopened. We must meet the moment again today. Too much is at risk to consider any other course.

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula is the Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Douglas A. Birkey is the institute’s Executive Director.