Just 9,000 senior airmen were selected for promotion to staff sergeant this year, a 17.4 percent selection rate—numbers unseen since the years following the Cold War.
The Air Force Personnel Center disclosed statistics for the E-5 cycle Aug. 8, and plans to release the list of selectees on Aug. 10 at 9 a.m. Eastern. It will be the smallest list since 1992, and represent the lowest selection rate since 1997.
It’s also the second consecutive tough promotion cycle for E-5. Last year, just 9,706 Airmen were promoted from a pool of 45,991, for a 21.1 percent rate. At the time, it was the lowest rate since 1997.
The numbers tell the story of strong retention amidst a recruiting crisis. When more Airmen stay, competition for promotion intensifies and opportunities for promotion are squeezed. Promotions to technical sergeant were also low this year: The Air Force announced earlier this summer that just 14.5 percent of eligible staff sergeants were selected for promotion to technical sergeant, also the lowest rate since 1996.
Slow promotion rates are likely to persist. Air Force officials said last year they anticipated lower-than-usual promotion rates lasting several years. Officials believe too many Airmen were promoted in the past with insufficient experience to be effective senior noncommissioned officers, and that a course correction was needed.
“The majority of the experience decline was attributable to the Air Force trying to achieve an enlisted force structure with too many higher grades,” Col. James Barger, Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency commander, said in a statement at the time. “We also found that experience levels would continue to decline unless the Air Force lays in more junior Airmen allocations and fewer E5-E7 allocations.”
The goal: Reach a healthier grade distribution by 2025.
Meanwhile, promotions to senior NCO grades are improving. Rates for master sergeant and senior master sergeant ticked up this year.
The promotion slowdown for NCO grades is the most drastic in a generation. Not since the end of the Cold War, when the military forces shed 700,000 troops in less than a decade, have promotions been so slow, according to RAND.
Air Force Staff Sergeant Promotion Statistics
YEAR | SELECTED | ELIGIBLE | PROMOTION RATE |
---|---|---|---|
2023 | 9,000 | 51,717 | 17.40 |
2022 | 9,706 | 45,991 | 21.10 |
2021 | 15,660 | 44,663 | 35.06 |
2020 | 13,864 | 33,341 | 41.58 |
2019 | 14,235 | 29,179 | 48.79 |
2018 | 15,669 | 30,651 | 51.12 |
2017 | 14,181 | 32,006 | 44.31 |
2016 | 16,506 | 39,064 | 42.25 |
2015 | 13,269 | 39,260 | 33.8 |
2014 | 9,403 | 36,739 | 25.59 |
2013 | 11,212 | 34,078 | 32.9 |
2012 | 13,448 | 33,060 | 40.68 |
2011 | 11,337 | 26,549 | 42.7 |
2010 | 13,518 | 28,510 | 47.41 |
2009 | 15,223 | 30,574 | 49.79 |
2008 | 12,209 | 28,098 | 43.45 |
2007 | 15,130 | 36,608 | 41.33 |
2006 | 13,298 | 37,071 | 35.87 |
2005 | 14,614 | 36,405 | 40.14 |
2004 | 13,625 | 33,306 | 40.91 |
2003 | 13,651 | 27,416 | 49.79 |
2002 | 19,448 | 30,880 | 62.98 |
2001 | 20,793 | 32,170 | 64.63 |
2000 | 19,605 | 38,654 | 50.72 |
1999 | 16,053 | 44,109 | 36.39 |
1998 | 11,033 | 48,719 | 22.65 |
1997 | 9,854 | 52,820 | 18.66 |
1996 | 9,541 | 57,523 | 16.59 |