Air Force Suspends Leaders of Unit Involved in Classified Document Leak

April 26, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force has suspended leaders of the Massachusetts Air National Guard unit involved in the leak of a trove of classified documents, the service said April 26.

The move came on the order of the 102nd Intelligence Wing commander at Otis Air National Guard Base, Mass., the Air Force said. The two leaders, the commander of the 102nd Intelligence Support Squadron and an administrative commander, have also lost access to classified information and systems. One of the unit’s members, Airman 1st Class Jack Teixeira, 21, has been charged with leaking scores of classified documents via online chat rooms on Discord.

“Commanders are taking appropriate action as information becomes available,” Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek told Air & Space Forces Magazine. The 102nd Intelligence Wing’s website identifies its commander as Col. Sean D. Riley. The wing has had its intelligence duties temporarily reassigned to other units as the Air Force investigates the leaks. Stefanek did not identify the squadron commander or administrative commander by name.

“This means that both the squadron’s state Air National Guard operational commander and current federal orders administrative commander have been suspended pending completion of the Department of the Air Force Inspector General Investigation,” Stefanek said. She also noted the “suspensions are temporary pending further investigation.”

According to its website, the 102nd Intelligence Support Squadron is comprised of more than 100 service members, civilians, and contractors.

“The 102nd ISS provides intelligence systems maintenance, integration, and operations for the AN/GSQ-272 SENTINEL weapon system, as part of the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System (AF-DCGS) Enterprise, enabling near real-time Collection, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (CPED) of fused intelligence to warfighters, combatant commanders, and the larger intelligence community,” the squadron’s website states.

The Pentagon and Air Force have each launched a broad review of the handling of classified documents, and some information as already been restricted. Additionally, the Department of Justice is investigating the matter. Teixeira was arrested by the FBI on April 13 and has been charged with violating the Espionage Act.

“Obviously in this case, this process fell apart,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told lawmakers April 18. “We have a process of looking at accountability, not only from a criminal standpoint for the individual but also as we look at the organization itself. We’re going to take a look at our overall processes across the Department of the Air Force.”

Days from Retirement, Hinote Warns That Air Force Modernization ‘Could Come Off the Rails’

April 26, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Until the Air Force can make the changes it wants in the fiscal 2024 budget and beyond, it isn’t a force “that wins,” Air Force Futures director Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote warned the Senate Armed Services airland subcommittee—and without action, the service’s hoped-for transformation could “fall off the rails.”

Hinote, presenting his final testimony in Congress before capping a 35-year career, said the Air Force is at an inflection point and must break from prioritizing “fight tonight” forces to invest in future capabilities. Until that happens, USAF risks losing a peer fight, he said.

In the April 26 hearing, Hinote said he feels a “sense of urgency to push the changes that we need.”

“For too long, we have privileged current risk at the expense of future risk,” Hinote said, adding that too often that future risk is treated as theoretical, rather than a hard-nosed appraisal of the threat.

“What it really means is that we are not handing off ‘an Air Force that wins’ to the next generation,” he said. “I’m not OK with that. And I know you aren’t, either.”

Hinote said the budget now before Congress “helps us get to the change that we need. It’s not perfect—no budget is—but due to the leadership of Secretary [Frank] Kendall and Gen. [Charles Q.] Brown, we are seeing real progress in our operational imperatives and force design.”

While many of the headlines around the budget have focused on its divestment of older, less capable platforms, Hinote said it goes well beyond that.

“There is real and transformational change in this budget,” Hinote said. “We are shifting major resources to the new capabilities that will be used in new ways. For years, we have needed a change-oriented budget. This is it.”

As the leader of Air Force Futures, Hinote noted his organization’s role “is to be the voice of tomorrow’s Airmen, to advocate for the capabilities and concepts the next generation of leaders will need to be successful.” To get there, “we will have to change, and change is hard,” he said.

Wargaming various future force structures has been a staple of his efforts for several years, Hinote said, and the systems and organizational changes USAF is implementing are the only way to win, he said. These include Collaborative Combat Aircraft, future air superiority capabilities, and Agile Combat Employment, he specifically noted.

More generally, he pointed out that serving under three different presidential administrations, “I found it remarkable that they arrived at three common conclusions”:

China “is the primary challenge”

The mission is to deter, and deterrence rests on “being ready to fight and win”

Change is necessary to keep up with the threat

China, he added, is “a worthy adversary” and its rapidly-advancing military capabilities must be taken seriously.

Asked by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) what he wants to “get off his chest” before leaving the service, Hinote said “I’ve watched this … story unfold, and we’ve known we needed a change for many, many years, and it feels like we’re finally—maybe—getting to a pivot point right now.

“That’s exciting, but it’s also scary, because it could come off the rails right away. We don’t want that, so, I’m cautiously optimistic and I’ll be cheering from the sidelines,“ Hinote concluded.

US, South Korea Agree to Coordinate More on Nuclear Deterrence

April 26, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. promised to deepen consultations with South Korea on a possible American nuclear response to a North Korean attack. In exchange, South Korea reaffirmed that it will not develop its own nuclear arsenal.

The understanding is outlined in a new agreement, dubbed the “Washington Declaration,” which was released April 26 during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s state visit to Washington.

The aim of the accord is to strengthen the U.S.’s commitment to its “extended deterrence” mission—in which America vows to defend South Korea from attack with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

“Our mutual defense treaty is ironclad,” President Joe Biden said during a press conference with Yoon at the White House. “That includes the nuclear threat and the nuclear deterrent.”

To drive the point home, the U.S. plans to make high-profile, but temporary, deployments, of nuclear-capable systems to the Korean peninsula, such as B-52 bombers and nuclear missile submarines.

“Going forward, the United States will further enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, as evidenced by the upcoming visit of a U.S. nuclear ballistic missile submarine to the ROK,” the document says, referring to the Republic of Korea.

That would be the first strategic submarine port call since the USS Robert E. Lee deployed to South Korea in 1981.

North Korea—officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DRPK—launched a record number of missiles in 2022. The country’s totalitarian leader, Kim Jong Un, has embarked on an ambitious ballistic missile and nuclear modernization effort, stoking fears in South Korea, which does not have a nuclear arsenal of its own.

To reassure Seoul, the agreement will establish a new Nuclear Consultative Group in which senior officials from both countries will regularly meet. The officials will not discuss targeting but will have broader deliberations to “strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning, and manage the threat” posed by North Korea, the Washington Declaration states.

Those deliberations are expected to lead to more exercises in which South Korea’s conventional forces are paired with U.S. nuclear-capable systems.

“The Alliance will work to enable joint execution and planning for ROK conventional support to U.S. nuclear operations in a contingency and improve combined exercises and training activities on the application of nuclear deterrence,” the declaration says.

The U.S. already has arrangements for conventionally armed countries to support America’s nuclear forces, such as NATO’s Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT), which has seen fighters from non-nuclear European nations exercise with American nuclear-capable aircraft.

Yoon said South Korea’s “state-of-the-art conventional forces” would be paired with American nuclear assets in planning and drills. “Sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula does not happen automatically,” he said, adding that deterring North Korea required “superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false peace based on the goodwill of the other side.”

The declaration also noted that a new South Korean Strategic Command, which will oversee the nation’s missiles and other key assets, will be linked to the joint U.S.-South Korean command on the peninsula.

Public opinion polls in South Korea show upwards of 70 percent of the population supports the indigenous production of nuclear arms, a prospect Yoon publicly floated in January.

“What the South Koreans want is a voice on this,” Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official now at the Brookings Institution, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “They want to be able to weigh in on this crucial decision, and this Washington Declaration will assure them that they will have that voice.”

Some nuclear policy experts said it was too soon to say how deep the increased coordination would be, but the agreement was also a symbolic effort by Washington to reassure Seoul.

“The big picture is the Biden administration has acknowledged that it was necessary for it to do more,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

‘Electric Air Taxis’ To Begin Testing at Edwards AFB By March ’24

April 26, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

“Electric air taxis” are coming to Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., early next year. The Air Force and Joby Aviation announced a deal April 25 through USAF’s Agility Prime program for rapid acquisition.

Air Force pilots took command of a Joby electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for the first time earlier this week, remotely piloting the five-seat airframe through its full flight envelope at the company’s Marina, Calif., facility.

The experience was the first step in USAF’s commitment to receive by March 2024 two aircraft and to begin testing them at Edwards, the first time Agility Prime has been used to acquire an aircraft.

Releases from both the Air Force Research Laboratory and Joby Aviation noted the contract extension—now valued at up to $131 million—includes options for up to nine aircraft. An AFRL spokesman told Air & Space Forces Magazine those aircraft could be delivered to other government agencies and no locations besides Edwards for the first two have been decided on.

Joby’s aircraft has five seats, but none of the testing so far, including the Air Force-controlled flights, included passengers. An AFRL spokesman said there are future plans to have pilots and passengers on board the aircraft at Edwards.

At Edwards, the Air Force will work with both Joby and NASA as part of a larger effort to develop Advanced Air Mobility. The AFRL spokesman said the organizations will work on the infrastructure necessary to maintain and operate electric aircraft. The Air Force in particular will study the aircraft’s potential use for “short-to-mid range cargo operations at low operating costs and just-in-time delivery constructs,” the spokesman said.

Additionally, the aircraft could support operations at Edwards’ test ranges, transporting personnel around the 470-square mile base, the spokesman said.

Electric vertical takeoff and landing could be of interest to the Air Force as it looks to reduce its carbon emissions and ensure it can deliver vital equipment and material through the “last tactical mile.”

The Air Force has been pursuing Agility Prime under its AFWERX innovation arm since April 2020. In that time, the service has awarded hundreds of contracts to stimulate development in the eVTOL industry, which has seen intense commercial and government interest as of late.

Joby has been involved in the program for years now, and in 2022, the company scored a high-altitude mark of more than 11,000 feet and a speed of more than 200 miles per hour. It is looking to start a commercial “air taxi” service starting in 2025.

Heading into 2023, Lt. Col. Thomas Meagher, AFWERX Prime division chief, told Air & Space Forces Magazine his focus was on getting more of the aircraft into the hands of Air Force testers and incorporated into exercises when possible.

The Joby S4 is a five-seat electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. AFWERX Agility Prime announced April 25, 2023, that it has entered into a third extension of its Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase III contract with Joby. The extension enables options for Joby to deliver up to nine of its low acoustic signature, zero-operating emissions S4 aircraft to the Air Force and other government partners. The first two Joby aircraft will be delivered to Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., before March 2024. Courtesy photo

DOD Digs In: F-16s Not a Priority for Ukraine, Despite Russian Airpower

April 26, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The Pentagon’s top civilian and military leaders for Europe reiterated to Congress that providing modern Western fighter jets like the F-16 to Ukraine is not an immediate priority for the Department of Defense—even as they warned that Russia’s air force remains a serious threat to the region.

Testifying to the House Armed Services Committee on April 26, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command, and Dr. Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, held firm on DOD’s stance that the U.S. needs to prioritize Ukraine’s most urgent needs in its fight against Russia, and those needs don’t include advanced airpower.

“Our focus has been on … Ukrainian priorities for the fight, and aircraft, while on the list, Western modern aircraft is about eighth on the list,” Wallander said. “And so we have focused with resources on the highest priority capabilities, and that has been air defense, artillery, and armor.”

Wallander also argued that the time it would take to deliver Western fourth-generation fighters and train the Ukrainians on them would be too long for their current fight, an argument other Pentagon officials have also made.

Instead, Wallender and Cavoli touted the recent transfer of Soviet-era fighters from Slovakia and Poland to Ukraine, saying those jets could be quickly integrated into operations.

“Legacy Soviet aircraft have been helpful to the Ukrainians because their pilots are trained on those aircraft, they know how to use them, they know how to maintain them,” Wallander said.

Cavoli also seemed to indicate Ukraine doesn’t need F-16s to deny Russia air superiority.

“In the near term and into the mid-term, what Ukraine really needs to do is control the airspace over its country and over its forces,” Cavoli said. “And they’ve been doing that very effectively with ground-based air defense. So that’s the thing that’s most imperative right now, and it’s been very well served by ground-based air defense.”

Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Penn.), an Air Force veteran, pushed back, noting that the conflict in Ukraine has lasted far longer than expected and shows no sign of letting up—while the question of F-16s has been debated for months now.

“The Congress has at least been asking that question officially since last April. So it’s been more than a year,” Houlahan said. “And I understand that these timelines are long, and it’s very expensive and prioritization, but we have no indication necessarily that this is going to abate anytime soon. And so it just feels as though it’s still an appropriate conversation to continue to ask and to continue to have.”

Russian Air Force

Wallander cautioned against dismissing the Russian Air Force. When Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) argued the damage done to Russia’s forces in Ukraine has been such that other NATO allies would be able to handle any Russian aggression, Wallander disagreed.

“I don’t think I would agree with you, with respect, Congressman, because Russia still retains strategic capabilities, an Air Force, cyber,” Wallander said.

“Its Air Force can’t establish air superiority in Ukraine,” Waltz replied. “I can’t imagine it establishing air superiority in Poland.”

“We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia’s military capabilities, because the stakes of getting it wrong are too high,” Wallender said.

Cavoli echoed that point late in the hearing, as he described jhow Russia has been able to wield power in Europe through energy supplies, cyberattacks, and even conventional forces.

“The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict—although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict,” Cavoli noted. “The air force has lost very little. They’ve lost 80 planes. They have another 1,000 fighters and fighter bombers. The Navy has lost one ship. So they still use all of that conventional power as well, and they mix them all together.”

14 Airmen Become US Citizens in New Basic Training Naturalization Process

April 26, 2023 | By David Roza

They came from four continents and 10 countries, but by the end of the day on April 26, 14 men and women had two things in common: they were all Airmen, and they were all U.S. citizens.

The 14 individuals were the first to complete a new streamlined naturalization process which makes it easier for recruits to become citizens. The process is one of several efforts the Air Force is pursuing to help drive recruitment at a time where low unemployment and decreasing propensity to serve have most military services predicting a recruiting shortfall this year. The Air Force in particular anticipates it will come up 10 percent short on the Active Duty side, with a greater gap in the Guard and Reserve forces.

“What we have concluded is that there are multiple areas where we need to adapt and improve performance by single or double-digit percentage points,” Maj. Gen. Ed Thomas, commander of the Air Force Recruiting Service, said in March. “We will continue to take a hard look at ourselves and leave no reasonable option off the table.”

One of those areas is making it easier for recruits to naturalize as U.S. citizens while joining the military.

“We have people who are here, who aren’t citizens yet but are willing to serve and die for this country,” Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “So the idea of being able to accelerate the naturalization process, the goal will be by the time they will complete [BMT] that they can become fully naturalized.”

A press release said the Air Force worked with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to reimplement the program in March. Policy changes in 2017 meant that lawful permanent residents had to complete a background investigation before entering the service, whereas before that change, lawful permanent residents could ship to initial military training as long as their background investigation had begun and they had cleared all other screening requirements.

After the 2017 change, foreign nationals also had to complete initial military training requirements and at least 180 days of consecutive Active Duty service or one year of reserve service before they could receive a certification of honorable service for the purposes of expedited citizenship. Previously, foreign nationals could receive that certification after “one day of service,” according to a 2017 press release.

The new Naturalization at Basic Training Initiative seeks to make it easier for recruits to become citizens. Recruiters help by making sure trainees bring all the necessary documents with them to Basic Military Training. When they arrive at BMT, recruits can scan a QR code to create an online Citizenship and Immigration Services account to start their application. They can also consult a study guide in preparation for the test and virtual interview they must pass before earning citizenship.

The 14 Airmen who were formally recognized as citizens at their BMT graduation on April 26 had completed all their paperwork during the previous seven and a half weeks of BMT, but Airmen who do not complete the naturalization process at BMT can continue the process at technical school or their first assignment.

“Their desire to become citizens exemplifies their commitment and dedication to the United States,” Col. John P. O’Dell, vice commander of the 37th Training Wing, where the 14 new Airmen underwent basic training, said in a press release. “These trainees volunteered to serve a country they aren’t yet citizens of and now we get to formally recognize them upon their graduation as American Airmen.”

One of them is Airman 1st Class Natalia Laziuk, a 31-year-old from Russia who dreamt of becoming a U.S. citizen since she was 11.

“I will always be grateful for every opportunity I have here in the best country of the world,” she said.

The other countries represented included Turkey, Mexico, Côte d’Ivoire, Jamaica, Philippines, Cameroon, Kenya, El Salvador, and South Africa.

Pentagon Needs to Do Better Job of Tracking Wargames, Report Finds

April 25, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. military relies on wargames to help inform its strategy, tactics, and requirements. But a new report from the Government Accountability Office sees some flaws, including Department of Defense efforts that are chronically stovepiped.

“GAO found that there are barriers to accessing wargame data, information on upcoming wargames is not shared, and the services have not developed standard education and qualifications for wargamers,” the report, released April 24, stated.

The report drew on the interviews with DOD officials, in addition to the oversight body’s research and analysis. After reviewing the critique, the Pentagon agreed with the GAO’s recommendations.

The DOD began a push to increase and improve its wargaming in 2015 under then deputy secretary of defense Robert Work, who wrote in a memo at the time that the ability of the U.S. military to conduct wargames had “atrophied.”

Today, a broad array of commands and organizations conduct simulations internally or in collaborations with outside entities. The Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment and the Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office, the Joint Staff, services, combatant commands, and other organizations all conduct wargames for their own strategic, tactical, or educational purposes.

Yet the Pentagon does not have a full understanding of the scope of the myriad wargaming efforts, according to the GAO. Compounding the problem, there are numerous obstacles to sharing information across the department on what wargames are concluding and how they are being conducted.

“In the absence of a department-wide data management approach, barriers to accessing wargame reports and other information remain—results are left completely unrecorded or unshared within organizational stovepipes,” the GAO said. “As a result, wargame sponsors or designers do not have the benefit of consulting a comprehensive database of wargames prior to pursuing their own, losing opportunities to learn from others and leverage earlier work.”

To remedy the problem, GAO said the Pentagon needs an office to monitor and account for the military’s wargames. The department should also “identify a lead organization to create and maintain a common operational picture or master calendar for wargames,” the report states. And those conducting the wargames should be required to provide that information.

Some security experts who have participated in wargames agreed there should be more transparency within the DOD, especially when the conclusions are used to drive important decision-making.

“If we’re going to hear about tidbits from games, it would be good if the games themselves had some explanation,” Eric Heginbotham of MIT’s Center for International Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “So there’s a public component to this. But even within DOD, there’s a big problem in terms of just collecting and making available even within the community the results—everything from game structure to rules to outcomes and lessons learned.”

One possible solution would be to broaden the mandate of a relatively new DOD unit, the Analysis Working Group—the AWG was created in 2021 to guide the Pentagon’s analytic capabilities, including wargames.

One GAO recommendation in particular proposed the Secretary of Defense “should ensure the Analysis Working Group develops and implements a department-wide approach for effectively sharing wargame data that, at a minimum, establishes requirements or standards for reporting wargame data and addresses the fragmentation of data across multiple systems.”

Some wargame designers also said the DOD should understand the limits of what can be learned from wargames, which are ultimately human endeavors subject to practical constraints, such as participants’ time, resources, subject matter knowledge, and individual biases.

Becca Wasser, the head of the Center for a New American Security’s Gaming Lab, said that the Defense Department should be cautious in relying on wargames alone to advocate for particular operational concepts or capabilities.

“Part of this is also always pairing game results with additional research,” she said. “It is a human-centric tool of analysis,” Wasser added. “What one participant might see as the takeaways and lessons learned are different than what another participant sees.”

Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, welcomed additional scrutiny of wargaming.

“An evaluation of just how wargaming and simulations are done is certainly warranted because many people place a lot of emphasis on their outcome,” he said.

“They should be used to inform, guide, and familiarize the participants with respect to a particular situation,” Deptula added. “But we have to be very careful about drawing conclusions, particularly from single wargame events, because there are so many assumptions that go into a particular wargame, even the most sophisticated and complex.”

USAFE Moves Air Guard and Reserve Tanker Mission to Poland

April 25, 2023 | By David Roza

Air National Guard and U.S. Air Force Reserve tankers that deploy to Europe will now operate primarily from Powidz Air Base, Poland, the latest effort to bolster the Air Force’s presence in eastern Europe and reassure NATO allies in the region.

The shift from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to Poland is a part of Copper Arrow, a U.S. Air Forces in Europe operation that uses tankers and Airmen from U.S.-based Guard and Reserve units who volunteer to deploy to Europe to support operations throughout the continent.

“These CONUS-based tankers travel with Air Reserve Component members who voluntarily commit to rotations in the European [area of responsibility],” Col. Gary Dodge, Air National Guard advisor to the commander of USAFE-AFAFRICA, said in an April 20 press release. “As non-Active Duty servicemembers, they voluntarily support this endeavor while spending time away from their civilian careers and their families.”

Earlier this month, Air Force Reserve Command’s 931st Air Refueling Wing flew KC-46 tankers out of their home station of McConnell Air Force Base, Kansas to Powidz. From there, they integrated with Finnish Air Force F/A-18s, which officials said demonstrates how closely U.S. Airmen can integrate with partner air forces.

“Our U.S. tankers’ interaction and integration with our NATO Allies are a clear demonstration of how we value our partnerships and the importance of enhancing our interoperability,” Col. Timothy Foery, U.S. Air Force Reserve Advisor to the commander of USAFE-AFAFRICA, said in the press release.

“Look at any image of a KC-135 refueling a Polish F-16 or a KC-46 refueling a Finnish F/A-18, and you immediately understand what we mean by the word ‘interoperability,’” he added.

air guard — A U.S. KC-135 Stratotanker from the 186th Air Refueling Wing, part of the Mississippi Air National Guard, refuels Polish F-16s from Powidz Air Base, Poland, as part of the U.S. Air Force total force exercise, Copper Arrow. Courtesy photo.

In the coming months, 19 different U.S.-based tanker units will also participate in Copper Arrow. Reserve and Guard units help relieve pressure on the RAF Mildenhall-based 100th Air Refueling Wing, the only tanker unit in USAFE. It is also an opportunity for Total Force crews to gain experience operating far from home.

“From a Guard perspective, it’s an opportunity for crews to operate in the European theater for an extended period of time,” Maj. Shay Dickey said about Copper Arrow in 2021. At the time, Dickey was chief of current operations and scheduling for the 116th Air Refueling Squadron and Copper Arrow detachment commander.

“The operating area here is pretty busy, so our younger crews can get some of that experience working in a new region, and it really broadens our horizons for future work in the European theater,” he said.

More than a year after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Copper Arrow moving to Poland is also part of a larger NATO effort to deter Russian advances in eastern Europe.

“For the first time in history, U.S. forces will be permanently stationed on the eastern flank of Europe, in Poland,” Mark Brzezinski, U.S. Ambassador to Poland, said in the press release.

Referencing Tadeusz Kościuszko and General Casimir Pulaski, two Polish soldiers who fought against the British in the American Revolutionary War, Brzezinski said the 10,000-plus U.S. Airmen and Soldiers on Polish bases today are the latest examples in a nearly 300-year tradition of Polish-American military cooperation.

“Americans have sacrificed for Polish freedom and Poles have sacrificed for American freedom,” he said. “Today, America and Poland share the same freedoms.”

LRSO Stealth Nuclear Missile On Track for Production Decision in 2027

April 25, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Raytheon AGM-181 Long-Range Standoff missile is on track for a production decision in 2027, having passed its critical design review in March, according to Air Force budget documents.

Justifications for the fiscal year 2024 budget request show that LRSO’s low-rate initial production waypoint—referred to as Milestone C—is set for the third quarter of 2027, when there’s a major shift in planned spending from research, development, test, and evaluation to procurement.

The LRSO’s critical design review—which set the near-final design of the stealthy nuclear missile—narrowly met the program’s projected timeline finishing up in the final few days of February and the early days of March this year. Senior Air Force officials, speaking at the midpoint of the CDR process, predicted no significant issues after its conclusion.

Gen. Duke Richardson, head of Air Force Materiel Command, has said he expects “big bang” design reviews will give way to “rolling” events, made possible by digital design and development, wherein all stakeholders can see the design as it is at any given time.

The LRSO, being developed in secrecy, will succeed the 1980s-vintage AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM), which is being phased out after undergoing several life extension programs. It has even outlasted its previous planned complement/successor, the stealthy AGM-129, which was retired as a cost-saving move in 2012.

President Joe Biden’s administration confirmed the need for LRSO in its Nuclear Posture Review last year, despite previous speculation that it might cancel the program.

Indeed, procurement funding for LRSO ramps steadily upward over the next five years, with a particularly huge increase in fiscal 2027. Air Force budget documents show planned requests of $67 million in 2024, $135.2 million in 2025, and $295.1 million in 2026, before funding balloons to $1.01 billion in 2027. Fiscal 2028 procurement is projected to be $1.7 billion, with another $6.5 billion expected after that through the life of the program.

Conversely, RDT&E funding profile for LRSO peaked in fiscal 2023 at $928.9 million and is slated for a steady decline over the next four years, with $911.4 million in 2024, $704.9 million in 2025, and $600.5 million in 2026. Research funding then plummets to $287.8 million in 2027, with just $76.4 million planned in 2028 and no more monies planned after that.

Gen. Anthony Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March that he was “quite pleased” with the Air Force’s progress on LRSO. At the same time, Cotton also said the ALCM, carried exclusively by the B-52H, is “still a reliable, safe, and secure weapon,” but warned that it is past its projected service life and must be replaced.

The Air Force is planning on an average of about $32 million per year in ALCM procurement funding through 2028, with less than two years funded after that, suggesting an initial operational capability date for LRSO of about 2029-2030.

Raytheon won the contract to build LRSO in July 2021, beating out Lockheed Martin.

The LRSO will initially equip the B-52J but will also be integrated on the stealthy new B-21 Raider bomber. The ALCM was never fitted to the B-2.

Little has been revealed about the LRSO, such as its range and speed, but the Air Force has said it plans to build 1,087 of the missiles, of which some 67 would be used in the development phase. Initially expected to cost about $10 million each, the most recent estimate is that LRSO will cost $13 million each. The Air Force has also said the missile will not be hypersonic.

In its budget justifications, the Air Force said fiscal year 2024 activities for LRSO will include verifying and maturing the design and planning for “manufacturing maturation.” Former AFMC commander Gen. Arnold Bunch reported that the technology maturation and risk reduction phase was extended to work on design elements that would reduce the LRSO’s cost of production and ownership and make it more reliable.

Other activities in FY24 include working with the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation on a test plan for the LRSO and completing B-52 flight envelope testing and “Control Test Vehicle flight testing,” according to the budget justifications. The program will also be working on development of “carriage and launcher equipment, trainers, test equipment and support equipment.”

The Air Force is also wants to ensure it owns the underlying technical baseline of the program. This involves establishing a digital engineering system including a supporting environment and infrastructure to perform digital activities and collaborate with and communicate across stakeholders.

Additionally, work is underway with the Department of Energy, on designing, developing and testing the LRSO’s nuclear warhead, integrating it with the missile, and planning for nuclear certification activities.