Allvin Wants Airmen to Study Past Airpower Failures to Prepare for Wars of the Future

Allvin Wants Airmen to Study Past Airpower Failures to Prepare for Wars of the Future

Oct. 10, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin wants Airmen to read up on the history of airpower failures and military decision-making to better prepare for the next conflict and learn how to harness artificial intelligence effectively and ethically, among other new updates to his Leadership Library. 

Allvin has framed the current transformation of the Air Force as necessary in a “time of consequence” driven by the threat of China—a near-peer challenger that the U.S. has not seen since the end of the Cold War. The chief has four new additions to his list of books, films, podcasts, and papers—two books, one podcast episode, and an article—that touch on many of the themes he has highlighted in his first year as the Air Force’s top officer.

The latest Leadership Library update for Airmen released this month “aims to equip you with resources to deepen your understanding of the many facets of modern military leadership and provides the insights needed to navigate the complexities of the contemporary operational landscape,” Allvin wrote in a note to Airmen.

“Why Air Forces Fail: The Anatomy of Defeat” edited by Robin Higham and Stephen J. Harris

The book, edited by a pair of military historians, examines the failures of Russian, Polish, French, British, Italian, German, Argentine, and American air forces.

The parallels to modern challenges are notable. Allvin writes the book “provides invaluable insights into the importance of logistics, infrastructure, and proactive leadership. History shows that the decisions made today will dictate the readiness of tomorrow.”

The U.S. Air Force is pushing for significant investments in modernization and more realistic exercises. Russia has struggled in its war in Ukraine and failed to achieve air superiority early—or at any point thereafter—in the conflict, a key failure driven in part by a military doctrine that subordinated its air force to ground forces, according to U.S. officials and experts.

“As Airmen, understanding the historical underpinnings of Air Force successes and failures is crucial for informed strategic planning,” Allvin wrote of the work.

”Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die,” by Chip Heath and Dan Heath

The book, a New York Times bestseller, “offers powerful, practical strategies for ensuring our messages resonate, from simple and unexpected ideas to emotional and credible storytelling,” Allvin writes. Simply put, the success of a mission is more likely if communication surrounding it is clear, he writes.

“Conflict Occurs When Debate Fails,” Open to Debate

In a series of debates between experts arguing for and against positions, this podcast episode picked out by Allvin features retired Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and historian Andrew Roberts discussing their book “Conflict” which examines the evolution of warfare since World War II. The podcast “offers profound insights into the ethical and strategic dimensions of contemporary warfare, from nuclear deterrence to cyber threats, and misinformation. … Engaging with this resource will enhance your grasp of conflict resolution, leadership and the critical role of accountability in military decisions,” Allvin wrote.

“Embracing Gen AI at Work,” by H. James Wilson and Paul R. Daugherty

Finally, as the world rapidly embraces artificial intelligence—including the Air Force and the U.S. military at large—Allvin wants Airmen to use AI, but do so carefully.

“As we navigate the integration of artificial intelligence into our operations, equipping ourselves with the right skills is central to success,” Allvin wrote.

Through an article in the Harvard Business Review, the authors can teach Airmen about using “AI effectively through intelligent interrogation, judgment integration, and reciprocal apprenticing,” Allvin wrote. “I want each of you to be empowered to leverage emerging technology confidently and ethically,” the CSAF concluded.

MacDill Escapes Disastrous Flooding from Hurricane Milton

MacDill Escapes Disastrous Flooding from Hurricane Milton

Oct. 10, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

A “reverse storm surge” spared MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., from the catastrophic flooding predicted to accompany Hurricane Milton, but assessment crews are en route to survey the damage inflicted chiefly by high winds. No firm estimate of when the base will be back up to operational status is yet available.

Milton came ashore at Siesta Key, roughly 60 miles south of MacDill, at about 8:30 p.m. Oct. 9, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds up to about 120 miles per hour. The storm killed at least four people across Florida and whipped up 19 or more tornadoes, which caused significant regional damage to structures and knocked out much of the power grid; roughly a third of the state is without electricity. State and local officials said they expect the death toll to rise.

But in the Tampa Bay region, where MacDill is located, winds caused a phenomenon called “reverse storm surge,” which actually pulled water from the bay instead of hurling a wall of water onto the land adjacent to it. The predicted surge of up to 15 feet would have thoroughly inundated MacDill, which juts out into the bay and where the highest point is only 13 feet above sea level. A nearby airport recorded top wind speeds of 90 miles per hour.

“We were very lucky,” MacDill spokesperson Kaitlin Butler told Air & Space Forces Magazine. With the reverse storm surge, “the water level actually went down in the bay. … Most of what we’re seeing is downed trees, and they seem to have missed falling on the homes in base housing.” There were no casualties and base roads are largely passable, she said.

While some “critical functions” on base have generators, most of MacDill operates off the local grid, Butler said. Once power is restored, “mission critical” personnel are back, and roads are deemed safe, there will be a foreign object sweep of the flightline and after that, the base’s KC-135s can return, she said.

Still, Tampa received 18 inches of rain, overloading the storm drainage system. Mayor Jane Castor, at a press conference Oct. 10, said that the wastewater system could back up into the water supply, and urged residents not to use tap water until further notice.  

There were “no impacts expected” from the storm at Eglin, Hurlburt, or Tyndall Air Force Bases elsewhere on Florida’s west coast, an Air Force spokesperson said. Seven F-16s were flown out of Homestead Air Reserve Base ahead of the storm, and damage assessments are underway there. Damage is similarly being gauged at Patrick Space Force Base and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Florida’s east coast; some aircraft there were flown out ahead of the hurricane there, as well, but no personnel evacuations were ordered.

“Our Hurricane Recovery Team is enroute to MacDill AFB to begin assessing, identifying and neutralizing hazards,” base leaders said on Facebook. MacDill “remains closed at this time and personnel who are not assigned to the HRT should not attempt to access the installation until further notice. Safety of our personnel is our number-one priority as we begin our assessments. We will continue to provide updates as quickly as possible.”

MacDill flew 13 KC-135s off base in the days leading up to the storm’s landfall, and these “remain evacuated at McConnell AFB (Kans.),” while some others remain hangered on base and others are deployed elsewhere on operational missions, an Air Force spokesperson said. Homestead sent seven F-16s to San Antonio, Texas. 

Personnel who live on MacDill were ordered to leave no later than 4 p.m. Oct. 9, and the base was closed at 5 p.m.

“Approximately 185 base personnel are operating out of Raymond James Stadium Emergency Operations Center,” the spokesperson said. They are coordinating with Air Forces Northern and the Civil Air Patrol to conduct “flyovers at priority targets to gain aerial fidelity of damage following the storm.”

Regional airports—Orlando International; Palm Beach International;  Sarasota Bradenton International; Southwest Florida International, and St. Pete-Clearwater International—all remain closed while damage assessments are conducted, according to the FAA.

Milton moved swiftly across Florid and exited the state early Oct. 10, heading east into the Atlantic Ocean, still as a Category 1 hurricane. No further landfalls are expected, but the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration cautioned that storm surges remain possible along the coasts of Florida and Georgia and a “risk of considerable urban flooding” persists across the southeast U.S., which is still recovering from Hurricane Helene.

Kadena Adds New F-16 and F-22 Fighters, Some F-15s Remain

Kadena Adds New F-16 and F-22 Fighters, Some F-15s Remain

Oct. 10, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Fresh F-22 and F-16 fighter jets arrived at Kadena Air Base, Japan, this past weekend as the key Pacific base phases out its few remaining F-15C Eagles. 

The F-16s are from the 77th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron out of Shaw Air Force Base, S.C. The F-22s are from the 525th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron out of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. 

In addition to the incoming fighters, F-22s from the 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron out of Joint Base Langly-Eustis, Va., remain at the base. 

Kadena continues to hold onto some F-15Cs—a staple of the installation since the late 1970s—which are nearing the end of their lifespan.

Stars and Stripes first reported the new fighters’ arrival. A spokeswoman for Kadena’s 18th Wing confirmed their presence to Air & Space Forces Magazine and also confirmed that “there are F-15C Eagles remaining at Kadena as they wait to be phased out.” 

Kadena’s aging F-15Cs have been slowly leaving the base for months following the Air Force’s decision in October 2022 to phase the fleet out and temporarily replace it with a rotation of fourth- and fifth-generation fighters.

The 18th Wing has consistently refused to disclose how many F-15Cs remain at Kadena, citing operational security concerns. In August, however, it did note the departure of a four-ship of Eagles as a “milestone” in the drawdown. 

Service officials have declined to say when the last F-15C will leave. 

Kadena is expected to eventually welcome 36 F-15EX fighters as the permanent replacement for the F-15Cs, part of a larger force restructuring on Japan that will see F-35s go to Misawa Air Base. The new F-15EXs will boast additional weapon stations, new electronic warfare suites, fly-by-wire flight controls, a far more powerful set of processors, and new cockpit displays. The notional date for fully equipping Kadena with the F-15EX is 2026. 

“There will be some learning as it comes to putting a new platform into these environments and we’ll probably learn a few lessons about the capabilities of the F-15EX,” Pacific Air Forces commander Gen. Kevin B. Schnider told Air & Space Forces Magazine last month. “I don’t think it’s going to be a significant transition at all to bring a new platform into Kadena just because the people that are operating that platform already know the business.”

The Air Force’s closest base to the island of Taiwan, Kadena is considered a key strategic location for the U.S. in its competition with China and has hosted a continuous cycle of fighters in the past two years. Most recently, F-22s from Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, departed after a six-month rotation at the base. 

The Air Force’s fighter fleet as a whole faces heavy demand as of late. Additional F-15s, F-16s, and A-10s are deploying to the Middle East amid rising tension between Israel and Iran, while squadrons of jets are extending their deployments to bolster U.S. airpower in the region.

Wandering A-29s Find Home as Edwards Test Pilot School’s First New Aircraft in Years

Wandering A-29s Find Home as Edwards Test Pilot School’s First New Aircraft in Years

Oct. 9, 2024 | By David Roza

It’s been a full three decades since the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School got a new aircraft, but that streak came to an end when a trio of A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft flew in from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., to their new home at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., earlier this year.

“This is the first time we brought a new airplane out to Edwards for the test pilot school in … longer than I can remember,” Dave Evans, an instructor at the school, said in a video published by Edwards’ 412th Test Wing.

The aircraft arrived on July 18, according to a press release about the arrival published Oct. 9. They flew in from Davis-Monthan after a stop at Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, about 130 miles south of Edwards, Evans said.

It’s the latest step in a long journey for the A-29, which the Air Force initially bought to serve as a light close air support or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platform in counterinsurgency operations. The aircraft is designed by Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer and built under license by the Sierra Nevada Corporation, a U.S. firm. 

a-29
Three A-29 Super Tucanos conduct a ferry flight to Edwards Air Force Base, California, July 18, where they will join a unique fleet at the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School. (Air Force photo by Richard Gonzales)

Back in 2017, the Air Force sought a low-cost, off-the-shelf attack and ISR aircraft to take pressure off higher-cost platforms such as the A-10 attack jet and F-16 fighter jet. The service held a competition between the A-29 and the AT-6B, a variant of the T-6 trainer, for the role. But in the end, the service bought just three A-29s, which were used to train pilots from Afghanistan and Nigeria, and two AT-6Bs, which were used for light attack experiments with the U.S. Marine Corps and partner countries.

In 2022, the Air Force planned to get rid of the aircraft, likely through a foreign military sale. But now the service has found a new use for the A-29 at its test pilot school (TPS).

“The decision to transfer A-29 aircraft to Edwards is a result of thoughtful analysis by the Test Pilot School and an excellent example of command agility and collaboration to take advantage of a unique, fleeting opportunity,” Michael Banzet, director, Air Force Test Center plans and programs, said in the Edwards press release. 

“Not only does this repurpose a $63 million taxpayer investment, it also modernizes and expands TPS curriculum to accelerate the fielding of combat capability for the USAF,” he added.

According to the release, the A-29’s design makes it perfect for spin testing, where a test pilot deliberately puts the aircraft into a spin to evaluate aircraft systems or pilot performance. Evans said the A-29 marks the first “organic spin capability at the school for powered airplanes since the mid-[1990s].”

With its modern avionics and wing pylons for hanging weapons or equipment, the A-29s may also be used for training and research on various weapons and sensors, which would take pressure off the T-38 and F-16 fleets at Edwards.

Evans said the aircraft may also be used for a test where students are expected to fly and land an aircraft with only the most basic information about its systems available. 

“Then we say ‘you gotta figure out how to take this airplane, get it safely airborne, get it safely on the ground,’” he said. “That is a test pilot’s job, in my opinion. And that’s exactly what we are doing here.”

a-29
Three A-29 Super Tucanos prepare for a ferry flight to Edwards Air Force Base, California, July 18, where they will join a unique fleet at the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School. (Air Force photo by Richard Gonzales)
Lockheed Gets New F-35 Manager with a Long History in the Program

Lockheed Gets New F-35 Manager with a Long History in the Program

Oct. 9, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

Chauncey McIntosh will become vice president and general manager of the F-35 program at Lockheed Martin starting Dec. 1, the defense contractor announced Oct. 9. He succeeds Bridget Lauderdale, who is retiring after 38 years with the company and nearly four years heading the F-35 program.

McIntosh has been Lauderdale’s deputy since June, but he has had a number of career turns with Lockheed managing portions of the Joint Strike Fighter program, covering more than nine of his 24 years with Lockheed. He has run the F-35 training and logistics effort, F-35 development, F-35 Joint Reprogramming Systems, and was the senior manager of the F-35 simulation and systems integration lab.

His most recent job before returning to the F-35 enterprise was as vice president and general manager of Integrated Warfare Systems and Sensors, which oversees the Navy Aegis program. During that time, he “oversaw the successful transformation of Aegis software development,” and was responsible “for the strategic, operational and financial performance of missile defense, radar, shipbuilding, directed energy and combat system integration programs that serve to increase customer capability and help achieve mission success,” Lockheed said in a press release.

Before that, McIntosh was VP and general manager of Training and Logistics Solutions, where he led “the strategic growth of mission readiness and sustainment programs, including the F-35,” the company noted. 

Chauncey McIntosh, courtesy of Lockheed Martin

Prior to working on the F-35, McIntosh was the F-22 test project manager, and before that, the F-22 Integration Lab operations manager. He started at Lockheed in 2000 as a software/avionics engineer. He previously worked at General Dynamics as a software engineer.

During his tenure at Lockheed Martin, McIntosh “has held numerous positions of increasing responsibility in program and project management, software engineering, systems engineering and avionics design across the F-35, F-22, C-5, P-3 and S-3 platforms,” the company said. “McIntosh is a 2003 graduate of the Lockheed Martin Engineering Leadership Development Program and a 2013 graduate of the Lockheed Martin Program Management Development Program.”

Lockheed may have chosen McIntosh for his deep knowledge of and success with software engineering, which will dominate the upcoming phases of the program.

In his new position, he’ll be “responsible for further strengthening positive customer experiences by reinforcing and continually growing the capability and reliability of the F-35; showcasing significant program progress; and ensuring the F-35 program meets the speed, agility, quality and affordability requirements deserved and expected by U.S. and international customers,” Lockheed said.

Greg Ulmer, president of Lockheed Martin Aeronautics and a former F-35 program manager himself, said McIntosh “is an exceptional leader with distinct qualifications needed to lead the F-35 program. His selection showcases the strength and depth of Lockheed Martin’s leadership succession planning.”

The F-35 is the Defense Department’s largest program, targeted to provide more than 2,200 fighters for the U.S. military and potentially thousands more to international customers. With recent orders, 19 countries will operate the fifth-generation F-35.

McIntosh takes over the F-35 in the midst of significant program transitions. Deliveries of the fighter recently resumed after a year of completed jets going directly into storage after production. The hold was due to the fighters being built with the Tech Refresh 3 update of software, processors, and displays that the Pentagon refused to accept because flight testing of that new suite was incomplete. It still is, but the need to get aircraft absorbed into the various units caused the Joint Program Office to allow deliveries to resume with a “truncated” TR-3 software package. The full-up suite is expected to complete testing next year.

The F-35’s Block 4 upgrade—which relies on the TR-3—is starting to build up momentum, and the fighter’s F135 engine is also undergoing an upgrade to provide the aircraft with more performance, cooling, and electrical power.

Lockheed delivered the 1,000th F-35 over the summer to an Air National Guard Unit. The U.S. Air Force maintains 1,763 F-35s as its buy objective, but so far has only taken delivery of about 450 jets.

USAF F-15s Arriving in Middle East as Israel Weighs Response to Iran Attack

USAF F-15s Arriving in Middle East as Israel Weighs Response to Iran Attack

Oct. 9, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

More of the U.S. Air Force fighters directed to deploy to the Middle East late last month arrived as Israel contemplates its response to Tehran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1. A squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles began arriving in the region Oct. 9, U.S. Central Command announced.

The Biden administration ordered more airpower to the region following Israel’s killing of Lebanese Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran retaliated with a salvo of some 180 ballistic missiles launched at Israel—many aimed at Israeli Air Force bases—that were mostly intercepted, according to Israeli and American officials.

Now, Israel is weighing its response and is likely to conduct some form of airstrike against Iran. The Biden administration is seeking to avert a full-scale regional war. 

President Joe Biden has said the U.S. would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, but the White House and Pentagon have made clear the U.S. will come to Israel’s defense if attacked. 

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had been scheduled to meet with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Pentagon on Oct. 9, but his visit has been deferred until after Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks by phone with Biden. 

“We still continue to consult with the Israelis on what their response might be,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Oct. 8.

After Nasrallah’s killing, the Pentagon ordered three more USAF fighter and attack aircraft squadrons to the region: additional units of F-15Es, F-16s, and A-10s.

The fresh Strike Eagles deploying to the Middle East are from Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, Air & Space Forces Magazine first reported. CENTCOM later announced the move. The first batch of aircraft made their way across the Atlantic and stopped at RAF Lakenheath, U.K., where they were spotted on Oct. 7 by local observers. 

A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle assigned to the 389th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron flies within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Feb. 5, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Daniel Asselta

The F-15Es—following similar deployments from the continental United States—must then cross the Mediterranean Sea. The fighters are being supported by USAF aerial refueling tankers, open-source flight tracking data shows. It is unclear if all the F-15Es have arrived in the Middle East as fighter squadrons typically do not land at their forward air base all at once.

The U.S. is planning to extend the deployment of current aircraft units in the Middle East to increase the overall number of fighters and attack aircraft in the region, essentially doubling the fourth-generation aircraft footprint. The U.S. already has F-22 fifth-generation air superiority fighters in the Middle East, and the Raptors will continue their deployment as scheduled. 

The Pentagon is overlapping the deployments of incoming and outgoing F-15E, F-16, and A-10 units for a temporary boost in the region. The additional A-10s arrived roughly 10 days ago. The U.S. also conducted such a move following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel and in April before Iran attacked Israel.

F-15Es from the 335th Fighter Squadron at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., first deployed to the region in April of this year, and soon after they got to the Middle East, those planes, along with U.S. Air Force F-16s and coalition warplanes, helped shoot down 80 Iranian drones during a previous attack by Iran on Israel on April 13.

The F-15Es from Seymour Johnson currently in the Middle East will stay in the region for now as part of Austin’s decision to delay the redeployment of current assets to enhance U.S. force posture in the region, a U.S. official told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

U.S. warplanes were ready to assist Israel by shooting down drones or cruise missiles on Oct. 1, a person familiar with the matter said, but U.S. aircraft were not needed as Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles, which fighters cannot defend against. Two U.S. destroyers fired a dozen interceptors at Iranian ballistic missiles.

In addition to land-based airpower, the U.S. is keeping the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, which carries F-35C Lightning II and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters, in the Middle East. The USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier deployed last month from Virginia and is expected to head to the Mediterranean Sea. The USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship that carries AV-8 Harrier attack planes, V-22 Ospreys tiltrotor aircraft, and some 2,200 Marines and Sailors from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, is operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“Our assessment is that this conflict still remains contained, and we are doing everything from our perspective to ensure that it does remain contained, and that the message of deterrence is still sent far and wide,” Singh said. “That’s why you’ve seen us rotate out different carriers through the region. We still have the ARG/MEU in the Eastern Mediterranean. We have flown in different capabilities. We have a lot of power in the region. And we will use that, if needed, to protect U.S. forces. And should we see another attack from Iran, we will also come to the defense of Israel.”

SDA Lays Out Timeline for Buying Nearly 200 More Satellites in 2025

SDA Lays Out Timeline for Buying Nearly 200 More Satellites in 2025

Oct. 9, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Space Development Agency isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

On Oct. 2, the organization released a notice to industry outlining its plans for an acquisition push in 2025. The SDA is seeking to procure around 200 satellites from different solicitations for Tranche 3 of its low-Earth orbit megaconstellation. 

The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, as SDA calls their constellation, is envisioned as the “backbone” for the Pentagon’s joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) efforts, providing both data transport and missile warning/tracking satellites that can connect sensors and shooters around the globe.  

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025—the last three months of calendar 2024—SDA plans to release solicitations for integration work on Tranche 3. General Dynamics has already received contracts worth up to $887 million for ground operations and integration for Tranches 1 and 2. 

After that will come a series of draft and final solicitations for the satellites themselves. Last month at a conference hosted by Defense News, SDA director Derek Tournear said the whole of Tranche 3 will likely include around 140 Transport satellites and 54 Tracking birds, though those figures are not final. 

In its announcement, SDA confirmed that it will continue to take a three-pronged approach to its Transport satellites, with different groups having different levels of capabilities. While the Tranche 2 Transport Layer had Alpha, Beta, and Gamma segments, Tranche 3 will have Upsilon, Sigma, and Lambda groups. 

  • T3TL Upsilon: A draft solicitation will come out early in the second fiscal quarter of 2025—the first few months of the calendar year—followed by a final one early in the third fiscal quarter, around April or May. Up to two vendors will be selected. 
  • T3TL Sigma: A draft solicitation will come out late in the second fiscal quarter of 2025—the first three months of the calendar year—followed by a final one late in the third fiscal quarter, around May or June. Up to two vendors will be selected.
  • T3TL Lambda: A draft solicitation will come out late in the third quarter of fiscal 2025—around May or June—followed by a final one toward the end of the fiscal year, in August or September. Up to two vendors will be selected. 

A draft solicitation for the Tranche 3 Tracking Layer is expected early in the second quarter of fiscal 2025—the first few months of the calendar year—and a final one will come late in the third quarter—around May or June. 

“Additionally, SDA is contemplating a PWSA Enterprise Ground effort which will be competed but details, including timeline, are still under development. SDA intends to update this announcement with that information when available and appropriate,” the announcement notes. 

Details including a description of the overall architecture and payload configurations for each segment are not being released publicly as “controlled unclassified information,” but Tournear did offer some details during the Defense News Conference. 

Tranche 3, scheduled to start launching in late 2028, will mark a turning point for the PWSA. After the “demonstration” Tranche 0, Tranche 1 is meant to provide an initial operational capability and Tranche 2 will add more spacecraft on orbit to provide global persistent coverage. Tranche 3 will be the first to replace earlier PWSA satellites with refreshed, improved capabilities—a model SDA officials refer to as “spiral development.” 

“Keep in mind, all of our satellites have five year design lives,” Tournear said. “And so the idea is, at the end of Tranche 3, we will start and have already decommissioned our Tranche 1 satellites. At the beginning of Tranche 3, Tranche 1 will be up and operational. But towards the end of Tranche 3 … our Tranche 1 satellites are going to be decommissioned.” 

The requirements for Tranche 3 were approved ahead of schedule by the SDA’s Warfighter Council in late August, Tournear noted, giving the agency more time to meet its launch deadlines. 

“The Tranche 3 satellites have to do a few things,” Tournear added. “They have to replenish the capabilities the Tranche 1 was providing. Primarily on transport, that means you have to maintain that Link 16 constellation. And then add additional capabilities. The new capabilities in Tranche 3 will be advances in things like phased arrays to allow us to go down to more users at a time, primarily that’ll be in our S-band terminals, to be able to go down to more what we call the tactical SATCOM, which is a special user community that’s using those S-band signals. And then advances in in Link 16 encryption are going to be fielded.” 

For the Tracking Layer satellites, Tournear said Tranche 3 will push the constellation forward toward missile defense—going beyond sensing launches and tracking flight patterns toward providing all the data needed to deploy interceptors against missiles. Some missile defense satellites were included in the procurement for Tranche 1 and Tranche 2, but Tournear could not say exactly how many of the 54 satellites in the Tranche 3 Tracking Layer would be capable of that. 

Why Russia Shot Down Its Own S-70 Drone Over Ukraine

Why Russia Shot Down Its Own S-70 Drone Over Ukraine

Oct. 8, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The wreckage of one of Russia’s newest stealth drones is now in the hands of the Ukrainian forces—a potential intelligence windfall for that country and its partners—after a Russian fighter chased, then shot it down over Ukrainian territory Oct. 5.

A series of videos posted to social media show a Russian fighter—likely an Su-57 Felon—shooting down the S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter-B) north of Donetsk with a short-range air-to-air missile. Further footage showed the flying-wing-type aircraft spiraling to the ground, where the wreckage was claimed by Ukrainian forces.

Although much of the aircraft was destroyed, the outer wing of the S-70 landed largely intact, and the engine, though crushed on impact, was also mostly in one piece. Portions of a Russian glide bomb were found among the wreckage.

A former Pentagon official told Air & Space Forces Magazine the wreckage could provide “tremendous insight” into the state of Russian drone and stealth technology, as the S-70 is believed not to have entered series production. The official, after reviewing imagery of the wreckage, said the drone doesn’t “obviously show us” any advanced low-observable technology. Lab analysis will be required to assess the materials used in its construction.

He speculated that the wreckage might confirm whether any technology recovered after a U.S. Air Force RQ-170 drone crashed in Iran in 2011 had been reverse-engineered by Iran and/or Russia, which have collaborated on drone projects. Iran has been supplying Russia with drones for both reconnaissance and attack since the Ukraine campaign began.

It isn’t clear why Russia shot down the drone, but it’s possible operators lost control of the aircraft during a test over Russia. It’s also possible the aircraft was conducting a live operational test to see how it performed against Ukrainian air defenses.

The Su-57 and the S-70 were observed flying together, and the Russian defense ministry has previously published photos of the duo in flight, saying they could form a manned-unmanned team for air defense and attack. Russian officials have said that the Okhotnik can “extend” the reach of the Su-57’s radar.

However, a former senior Air Force official said the S-70 clearly “was not escorting” the Su-57, and they were not conducting a manned-unmanned teaming mission. He also discounted the idea that the S-70 was testing out the same kinds of capabilities eyed for the U.S. Air Force’s nascent Collaborative Combat Aircraft program.

“I would not say this was a ‘CCA’ at all… more likely it was a UCAV [Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle] that lost control and the Russians sent a Su-57 to shoot it down,” he said.

A military aerospace analyst familiar with Russia’s drone program said “China is pursuing CCA—that we know. Russia, not so much.”

The S-70 is a large aircraft, with a 65-foot wingspan. It was developed over the past 12-14 years, and underwent flight tests between 2019 and 2023. It has been speculated that limited series production was to begin in the second half of calendar 2024, so it’s possible the mission was a developmental or operational test prior to production commencing.

The former Pentagon official said it is also surprising that the Russians exposed their Su-57 to Ukrainian air defenses, since Russia only has about 30 Felons, of which a dozen are test-configured and the rest operational.

“They must have had a good reason,” he said.

It is also possible, if unlikely, that the entire incident was staged. In that case, Russia may have intentionally put an obsolete or deliberately-misleading airframe in western hands to get Ukrainian and NATO air defenses to waste effort hunting for a drone “that isn’t coming,” the official suggested.

To Make ABMS Work, Air Force Hires a Digital Integrator

To Make ABMS Work, Air Force Hires a Digital Integrator

Oct. 8, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force chose Leidos, the defense IT giant, to help oversee the digital infrastructure for its Advanced Battle Management System—the department’s key contribution to the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative. 

Under a new $303 million contract announced Oct. 7, Leidos is tasked with “planning, analysis, and operations” for ABMS’ digital infrastructure, intended to connect sensors to battle managers and shooters around the globe. 

“As previously realized, the data was pretty much locked into different capabilities or different tools or different platforms that the Department of the Air Force operates,” said Chad Haferbier, division manager for multi-domain solutions at Leidos, in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine. “The idea … is to expose that data for better proliferation, sharing, better decision advantage and ingest [it] through that new ecosystem that they’re looking to field.” 

The Air Force, under command, control, and communication/battle management czar Maj. Gen. Luke C.G. Cropsey, is developing an information architecture and Leidos will “support them in the proliferation of what the network looks like, and to manage it and to sustain it and keep it cyber-secure and keep it operational.” 

To make that happen will require a combination of hardware and software, Haferbier added—everything from digital clouds to fiberoptic cables to servers to computer programs to handle the flow of data. 

“We’ll have modern platforms, we have legacy platforms, that’ll never change,” Haferbier said. “So how do we field a more flexible compute ecosystem and networking ecosystem to move the data around and amalgamate and share?” 

Cropsey and his team have been considering how to solve the nitty-gritty problems of a better network for some time now. 

“Regardless of where you’re going to fight, what you want to communicate, the data and the information that you need to flow through that system, if you don’t have a digital infrastructure to do it on, it’s a pipe dream,” Cropsey said last year, pledging that his office would start fielding that infrastructure within the year. 

Many details about the architecture for ABMS and the Department of the Air Force’s larger planned DAF Battle Network remain classified. But officials want an open architectures that enables different contractors and agencies to easily share data with the larger ecosystem. 

The Air Force has created vendor pools empowering dozens of companies to contribute to ABMS, and Haferbier said Leidos will work with the entire industry to integrate those varied solutions into the network. ABMS will not be delivered as a fully formed capability, but instead will follow an iterative approach, adding pieces over time.  

“I think the Air Force is making smart decisions about tackling one level of the [tech] stack here with the network, tackling the compute level of the stack and not trying to field a JADC2 box that will solve everything,” said Haferbier. 

Cropsey is eager to get beyond tests, experiments, and demonstrations, and Haferbier said Leidos intends to progress quickly toward fielding some initial digital infrastructure. 

“I hope to see real progress in the next 12 months for sure,” he said. “The true details of deliveries are going to be at a classified level, but I know that we have a three-year base period and two option years after that for this contract, so I’m fully committed to providing the talent and the expertise and the manpower to help the Air Force realize its vision as rapidly as possible.”