Pentagon Announces New Ukraine Aid Package Focused on Air Defense

Pentagon Announces New Ukraine Aid Package Focused on Air Defense

June 13, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT—As Ukraine begins its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russia, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is headed to Europe for a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels and the Pentagon announced another batch of military aid aimed at helping Ukraine secure its skies against Russian aircraft, drones, and missile attacks.

The package includes “key capabilities to aid Ukraine’s efforts to retake its sovereign territory and support Ukraine’s air defenders as they bravely protect Ukraine’s soldiers, civilians, and critical infrastructure, as well as artillery, anti-armor systems, and ammunition” the Department of Defense said in a statement June 13.

The successfulness of the nascent Ukrainian counteroffensive remains unclear. But given the unpredictable and grinding nature of the war, the Pentagon added it is attempting to meet “immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.”

Among other capabilities, the new package includes additional munitions for NASAMS air defense systems, more Stinger man-portable air defense systems, additional GMLRS rockets for HIMARS launchers, and well as “tactical secure communications support equipment,” and 15 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 10 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers. The package is worth up to $325 million, the Pentagon said.

“Our primary focus right now is on ground-based air defense,” a defense official told reporters.

On June 15 in Brussels, Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley will convene with defense officials from around the world as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a monthly meeting of nearly 50 countries to coordinate aid with Kyiv.

Milley and Austin are traveling also traveling to Germany, where they will head to Wiesbaden to meet troops supporting the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine. Austin will also attend a meeting of NATO’s defense ministers June 16 at NATO headquarters in Brussels ahead of a key summit for the alliance in Vilnius, Lithuania in July.

The recently announced decision by Western allies to help Ukraine’s pilots train on F-16s is expected to be one of the topics discussed during the meetings. The U.S. gave its sign-off for other nations train Ukrainian pilots on the U.S.-made F-16, but it remains unclear how much direct support will come from the U.S. or if there is any possibility of America providing some of its F-16s.

A defining aspect of the war thus far has been the largely mutually denied airspace over Ukraine, though Russia has been able to launch barrages of missile and drones attacks on Ukraine, which has led the West to focus heavily on air defense in its aid to Kyiv.

Russia’s air force is large and more sophisticated than Ukraine’s, but Moscow has been unable to achieve air superiority for most of the conflict. Now, however, Russia appears to be trying blunt the counteroffensive using its airpower. An absence of Russian airpower, some allege, is what led to Ukrainian gains in recent days.

“Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces managed to make tactical gains on June 11 due to heavy rain and fog preventing Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and army aviation (rotary wing aircraft) from striking Ukrainian force concentrations,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in a June 12 update on the conflict. “Russian sources reported that Russian VKS and army aviation resumed intense airstrikes against Ukrainian forces on June 12 after the rain cleared.”

The Pentagon said its latest announcement was part an effort to “meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs.”

The full package includes:

  • Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
  • Stinger anti-aircraft systems
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
  • 15 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles
  • 10 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers
  • Javelin anti-armor systems
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
  • AT-4 anti-armor systems
  • Over 22 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades
  • Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing
  • Tactical secure communications support equipment
  • Spare parts and other field equipment
House Panel OKs Plan to Retire 99 USAF Fighter Jets

House Panel OKs Plan to Retire 99 USAF Fighter Jets

June 12, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The House Armed Services tactical air and land forces subcommittee approved an Air Force plan to cut 42 A-10s and 57 F-15C/Ds in fiscal 2024. 

The subcommittee’s markup of the 2024 National Defense Authorization bill, unveiled on June 12, would lower the minimum inventory requirements for A-10 and F-15C/D fighters as requested by the Air Force in the President’s budget request earlier this year. 

The full committee meets June 23 to vote on amendments and complete its version of the annual defense authorization, after which the measure must clear the full House. When the Senate passes its version of the bill, the two versions must be reconciled in a conference process that can make further changes. But getting the Air Force plan through the subcommittee markup is a key first step. 

The tactical air and land forces subcommittee markup would surrender those A-10s under a condition, however. If approved, the Secretary of the Air Force would have to devise a plan to ensure air crews maintain proficiency in close air support and would prohibit additional A-10 retirements until that plan is delivered to Congress. 

Any agreement to retire A-10 marks a major victory for the Air Force, which has argued for years that the jets are vulnerable to modern integrated air defenses. Congress approved retiring 21 A-10s last year, however, and the first of those went to the Boneyard only this past April. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. has said the Air Force should retire the entire A-10 fleet by the end of this decade. 

F-15C/D divestment has been less contentious, but cutting 57 in a single year would mean retiring more than a quarter of the 200 or so C/D models remaining, most of which are in the Air National Guard. 

The fighters are among 310 older aircraft the Air Force wants to retire in 2024, among the biggest yearly reductions in memory. The Air Force says cutting those aircraft will free up funds for new F-35 and Next Generation Air Dominance fighter development and purchases. But critics have countered that the Air Force should have sought additional funds, on top of its budget request, rather than give up so many aircraft at once.  

The subcommittee’s markup addresses those programs as well. It would require the F-35 Joint Program Office to break out its Tech Refresh 3 and Block 4 upgrades into a subprogram, answering a recommendation made by the Government Accountability Office in a recent report. 

The bill also includes a provision that would extend oversight of both the Air Force’s and the Navy’s Next Generation Air Dominance and Collaborative Combat Aircraft programs. The markup seeks annual progress reports on development and technology maturation, and requires Pentagon officials to establish key performance indicators “regarding flyaway unit cost, gross/weapon system unit cost, aircraft cost-per-tail-per-year, and aircraft cost-per-flight-hour.”  

The Air Force’s NGAD program, shrouded in secrecy for years, is only now beginning to come to light. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has said each sixth-generation aircraft will likely cost “multiple hundreds of millions of dollars” per tail, which would make it the most expensive fighter ever. The service started the competition earlier this year.

How the Space Force Will Avoid a ‘Pearl Harbor’ in Space, According to Its No. 2 Officer

How the Space Force Will Avoid a ‘Pearl Harbor’ in Space, According to Its No. 2 Officer

June 12, 2023 | By David Roza

In its official song, the Space Force touts itself as a ‘mighty watchful eye’ keeping watch on both the Earth and space—and the service now has what it needs to live up to that description and avoid any surprise attack, Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David D. Thompson said June 12.

“We’ve gotten to the point where we now have the tools: they’re there, they are either in place or building up,” Thompson said in a livestreamed discussion with retired Gen. Kevin Chilton, Explorer Chair at the Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence. “If we’re operationally or strategically surprised, shame on us.”

Thompson’s remarks came in response to a question from Chilton on how the Space Force plans to avoid a “space Pearl Harbor,” where an adversary might attempt an operational or strategic surprise in the space domain, on the ground, or in cyberspace.

The Space Force has several capabilities which Thompson said would make it difficult for an adversary to get the drop on the U.S., including an operationally- and tactically-focused space intelligence enterprise; a broad understanding of space domain awareness; joint cyber defense forces; and the branch’s emerging ground moving target indicator capability.

“It’s not just in space, but there is soon to be nowhere on the globe where we won’t be able to see, sense, monitor and take action as required,” Thompson said.

When the Space Force first launched in December 2019, the U.S. government lacked a space intelligence enterprise that was operationally and tactically-focused, Thompson said. There was a robust strategic space intelligence enterprise in the form of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, but Space Force leaders sought to make the budding service the 18th member of the Intelligence Community, and one that tracks not only the technical details of foreign space capabilities, but also their doctrine, training, methods of employment, and the development of counter-tactics. 

“That is probably the first thing that we needed to do and are doing well,” Thompson said.

Underscoring Thompson’s point, the House Armed Services intelligence and special operations subcommittee proposed establishing the National Space Intelligence Center as a field operating agency of the Space Force. The center would “analyze and produce scientific and technical intelligence on space-based and counterspace threats from foreign adversaries,” according to markup language for the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act.

The National Space Intelligence Center already exists in the form of Space Delta 18, which was launched in June 2022. Establishing the center as a field operating agency would give it the authority to conduct field activities “beyond the scope of any of the major commands” according to the Air Force definition of such agencies.

The second important factor Thompson listed is a new understanding of space domain awareness, one which focuses on possible threats rather than “managing the traffic,” he said. The military is in the process of shifting responsibility for overseeing safe space flight for civil and commercial satellite operators to the civilian Office of Space Commerce.

The third factor is the military-wide build up of cyber defense forces, which should prevent adversaries from gaining the element of surprise in that domain, Thompson said.

The general emphasized effective space domain awareness involves not only detecting suspicious behavior in space but also determining what party was responsible for that behavior. Thompson praised U.S. Space Command for publicly criticizing bad behavior, such as Russia’s 2021 anti-satellite test, which created a dangerous debris field in orbit.

“Calling out those sorts of behavior and making sure that people understand we can and will observe and attribute,” is an important part of maintaining order in space, he said. But space is not the only domain under Space Force’s eye. As the branch takes on the mission of ground moving target indication, the goal is for the U.S. to able to observe and call out bad behavior anywhere on or above the planet.

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies presented the Schriever Spacepower Series event with Gen. David D. Thompson, Vice Chief of Space Operations on Monday, June 12, 2023, at Air & Space Forces Association headquarters in Arlington, Va. Photo by Mike Tsukamoto/Air & Space Forces Magazine

As the government and private sector expand into cislunar space, the vast area between geosynchronous orbit and the moon, so too will Space Force surveillance. The 19th Space Defense Squadron is specifically tasked with cislunar and extra-geosynchronous domain awareness.

“Our role is space domain awareness and that starts … as low as satellites can operate and goes to infinity,” Thompson said. “As the human race continues to expand out into the solar system and beyond, we believe our responsibility is to understand what is happening in the domain.”

Beyond the Space Force’s observational capabilities, Thompson also highlighted the service’s work on satellite proliferation as key to preventing a devastating surprise attack. Though proliferation is often used in the context of large numbers of satellites, Thompson noted it also refers to distributing capabilities across multiple orbital regimes, multiple domains, and multiple partners. 

“The first thing you do is distribute those capabilities across multiple [orbits], which means that an adversary, if they’re going to attack you in space, has to have a very sophisticated and synchronized means of attacking,” he said. “The second is that you look at ways to augment and/or perform the mission in other domains—air, maritime, cyberspace—such that it is not just space that is the way by which missions are executed.”

It also helps to distribute capabilities among allies, partners, and even commercial services so that an adversary seeking to target those capabilities might say “even if I execute the way I want to, I’m unlikely to have the desired effect,” Thompson said.

However, growing these capabilities to keep up with demand requires hardware and manpower, and Chilton noted that acquiring more of both would become difficult under a defense budget which may face slower growth over the next few years. Thompson said the Space Force has been “blessed” to enjoy double-digit budget growth over the past several years, but he agreed a lean future could inhibit the branch’s ability to keep pace with its expanding mission.

“Either the department may need to look at its priorities for various investments, or we will have to throttle the growth that we have seen and the delivery of capabilities,” he said. “It will simply be incumbent on us to make sure that our leaders inside the Department of Defense and in the White House and Congress understand the risks we’ll take if in fact we cannot continue that.”

NATO’s Biggest Air Exercise Ever Kicks Off, Led by Germany

NATO’s Biggest Air Exercise Ever Kicks Off, Led by Germany

June 12, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The OCCASUS alliance, composed of the Eastern nations of Murinus, Plumbeus, Griseus, and Cinereus, have invaded Germany, and are “trying to push north to the Baltic Sea,” the German military, or Bundeswehr, said in a release. To do so, the alliance is relying on a mix of sabotage operations and special forces supported from by airpower. In response, NATO has triggered Article V, calling for the collective defense of Germany.

All of this is fictional. But it is the premise of Air Defender 23, a massive air exercise led by Germany and taking place across Europe that kicked off June 12. All told, 25 nations are participating in the nearly two-week exercise.

The exercise has been years in the planning—well before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022. But the need for NATO to bolster its military might is clear to its members, whose defense ministers will gather later this week in Brussels. Germany has pledged a dramatic change in defense policy and increased spending. NATO has reinforced its eastern flank. Air Defender will test out the alliance’s ability to defend itself with airpower.

All told, some 10,000 personnel and 250 aircraft from NATO nations and Japan are participating. Nearly 100 aircraft of those aircraft are American, almost all from the Air National Guard.

According to the ANG, Air Defender is “NATO’s largest airpower exercise since its inception.”

More than 40 Guard units are participating. Their aircraft include F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, MQ-9s, C-130s, KC-135s, C-17s, and KC-46s. Active-Duty F-16s from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, will also join in. European air forces are bringing fighters and other aircraft such as Eurofighters, Tornados, Gripens, and American-made export model F-16s and F-18s.

Because the exercise focuses on a threat from the east and a combined response, aircraft are also operating from forward locations in the Czech Republic and the eastern flank countries of Estonia and Latvia.

The German and U.S. militaries say the exercise encompasses far more than aircraft flying together, but real-world simulated combat, as officials previously detailed to Air & Space Forces Magazine. The scale is large enough that some portions of German airspace will close to civilian aircraft temporarily.

But airpower isn’t the only factor in Air Defender as “the conflict in the imagined scenario is far more complex, also encompassing the political, economic and media levels,” the Bundeswehr says. “The core of the large-scale exercise is to test the military’s ability to react and act in the air in a resilient manner and to be able to protect the population from medium-range missiles, for example.”

“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows, in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance,” Amy Gutmann, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, told reporters. “That includes Mr. Putin.”

House Bill Pumps Brakes On USAF’s Tanker Plans

House Bill Pumps Brakes On USAF’s Tanker Plans

June 12, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Skeptical of the Air Force’s future tanker plans, members of the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee are one step closer to gaining added oversight, but there’s a long road ahead.

The full HASC meets June 23 to vote on amendments and their version of the National Defense Authorization bill, after which the measure must also clear the full House, the Senate, and a conference process to resolve differences between the House and Senate versions. But the subcommittee markup is a key first step, and such provisions often survive in final legislation. 

Four provisions address the Air Force’s tanker fleet and the KC-46, KC-135, the so-called “bridge tanker” to replace the KC-135s, and the new Next-Generation Air Refueling System (NGAS). The Air Force shook up its tanker plans earlier this year, introducing the new NGAS concept in January, promising an analysis of alternatives in the fall, years earlier than previously planned. USAF officials have said they want to field NGAS aircraft just over a decade from now.  

That plan de-emphasized a “KC-Y” interim tanker to bridge the gap between the KC-46 and NGAS, reducing to 75 tankers the number of tankers USAF would buy. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall also indicated less interest in a new program, rather than simply adding more KC-46s. 

But some lawmakers have pushed back, frustrated with KC-46 maker Boeing’s performance on that tanker contract. They want a new competition, and Lockheed Martin and Airbus have teamed up on an alternative called LMXT. 

A similar effort failed last year, but this time lawmakers took a different approach. In one provision, lawmakers voted to prohibit the Air Force from issuing an acquisition strategy for the bridge tanker until it submits a business case analysis and “validated requirements from the Joint Staff for the contract competition.”

Also in the provision is a requirement for a business case analysis and analysis of alternatives for NGAS “based on a more realistic timeline.” Some legislators appear skeptical that NGAS will be ready by the mid-2030s—and a delay would presumably expand the needs of the bridge tanker program. Lockheed officials have argued the 2035 timeframe is “a very, very aggressive target.” 

A second provision in the markup would prohibit the Air Force from buying more than 179 KC-46s unless its top acquisition executive provides “validated needs of the Air Force” and cost estimates for sustaining additional KC-46s.  

None of these efforts would affect current plans for the KC-46 fleet, which has held fast at 179 aircraft, but rather on any effort to expand KC-46 purchases.

The third tanker provision touches on the KC-46’s planned Remote Vision System 2.0, an upgrade for the troubled vision system developed for boom operators to view the refueling boom remotely, rather than with a direct line of sight. Lawmakers want to prohibit RVS 2.0 from being introduced into the KC-46 production line or retrofitted onto any already-built KC-46s until the Secretary of the Air Force confirms that it fixes the problems with the current system and resolves the outstanding Category I deficiencies.  

A final provision would prohibit the Air Force from reducing the number of KC-135s in the Air Force Guard and Reserve. This would tie the hands of Air Force planners, who had more than 220 KC-135s in the Guard and Reserve as of last Sept. 30. By ensuring the Air Force can’t retire those aircraft, House lawmakers are pulling from an established play list for guarding against cuts to the Air National Guard.

Air Force Women Want One Thing: ‘Make Us More Lethal’ 

Air Force Women Want One Thing: ‘Make Us More Lethal’ 

June 11, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

Members of Air Force Special Operations Command face plenty of challenges and discomfort. “They’re on the ground, they’re living in cots, they’re flying the aircraft, they’re on missions anywhere from 16 to 18 hours long,” Lt. Col. Meghan O’Rourke, AFSOC’s mobility requirements branch chief and an MC-130 combat systems operator. “It’s a demanding schedule for my air commandos out there.” 

O’Rourke was among four women Airmen, all members of Air Force teams focused on cutting through factors that limit women’s mission effectiveness to join an AFA Warfighters in Action online video discussion June 9. “I don’t want them worrying about their families back home,” O’Rourke said. “I don’t want them worrying about personal hygiene or anything like that. I want those barriers tackled. These are leadership issues, these aren’t women’s issues. These are leadership issues. I want those tackled so that they can do their job as well as they possibly can.” 

The Department of the Air Force’s Women’s Initiatives Team leads department-wide efforts to remove those barriers. But at the major command level, “Athena” teams—named for the mythical Greek goddess Athena, the goddess of war—have formed to take on issues at the operational level.

The first Athena team appeared in 2019 at Air Combat Command, Maj. Sharon Arana said, led by Col. Rebecca Lange to focus on ACC-specific issues. From there, the idea spread “like wildfire” to other major commands, each with a slightly different name: AFSOC’s is Dagger Athena, ACC’s is Sword Athena, and ARC (Air Reserve Component) Athena represents both the Guard and Reserve, among others. 

The focus, Arana said: “Make us more lethal and ready to do our jobs and execute our mission.”  

With more than one-fifth of Active-Duty Airmen being women, the Air Force can ill afford not to address these issues, Athena team members said. That’s especially true as the service pursues concepts like Agile Combat Employment (ACE), where small teams of Airmen may need to operate from remote or austere bases for weeks at a time. In such scenarios, leaders will have to account for different needs to ensure their Airmen are positioned to perform. 

“For us at the Sword Athena level, we just look at, ‘Hey, how do we make this weapon system of the Airman more lethal?’” said CMSgt. Diana M. Scaramouche, the senior enlisted leader of the personnel division at ACC. “Take care of the basic physiological needs: toilet paper, pads, and tampons; female fitment equipment for the officer flyers, as well as the enlisted side. How do we come together to make sure that we’re all taken care of. And I think it makes us even more lethal. Because when you look at China, I don’t think they’re considering that.” 

Female fitment is crucial, because without gear designed for women, whether that’s body armor to support for basic human necessities, they can’t expect to be at their best.

“If we talk about tactical dehydration, we know that happens male and female. So tactical dehydration is when you don’t drink maybe five to eight hours prior to step,” said SMSgt. Rebecca Schatzman, a squadron enlisted leader and C-17 loadmaster. “So when you get in the aircraft, your cognitive response goes way down. Your pass-out rate goes way up. That is not what we need in the next fight. We talk about equipment and resources—we know that there’s equipment out there, bladder relief devices, female flight suits … any kind of female equipment, we need those resources.” 

In recent years, the Air Force has started testing out new technology for bladder relief, and ACC’s Sword Athena team is working to make sure that equipment can get to everyone who needs it. 

“So there’s the funding aspect, in order for them to be accessible, and where does that come from?” Arana said. “How do you coordinate this as well? How does a unit determine how many of each kit to fund and to carry? One of our initiatives at Sword Athena is to stand up a cross functional team, and the attempt is to collect all of the requirements for female fitment writ large, but it’s driven because of female bladder relief.” 

While getting such equipment does require funding, the Air Force should weigh the cost against the risk it runs by not giving female Airmen what they need to be successful, the panelists said. 

“I will quote [National Guard chief Gen. Daniel Hokanson] on this one—at ARC Athena, he stated that ‘Women are not little men,’” Schatzman said. “That’s one big piece, and it kind of sums it up as a whole, when we talk about equipment and specialized equipment. It really shouldn’t be specialized equipment. It should just be equipment. There is no one-size-fits-all.” 

For years, the Air Force—along with other parts of the military—designed equipment based on men and their body types, from uniform cuts to the dimensions of cockpits. 

But as the demographics of the force continue to change, so too are the baseline design requirements. Just next week, O’Rourke noted, the Air Force Uniform Office is traveling to Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., for design and fit testing for some changes to the Operational Camouflage Pattern (OCP) uniform. Specifically, the office is recruiting 200 female Airmen and 100 male Airmen to take part, O’Rourke said. 

“That’s just one example where we’ve got a lot of data out there from the decades that we’ve been fighting of what the male body looks like, but now, how do we incorporate all the different female types and sizes and movement abilities?” she said. “I know the Air Force office is looking at this very, very deeply at this point to make sure we’re tackling some of these problems and getting that data that frankly is just lacking right now.” 

Fitment is just one area that Athena teams are tackling—panelists also highlighted issues with child care, health care, and recruiting that they’re looking into. 

New GAO Report: Strategic Missiles At or Below Cost, But Sentinel Faces Year Delay

New GAO Report: Strategic Missiles At or Below Cost, But Sentinel Faces Year Delay

June 9, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The cost of the nuclear AGM-181 Long-Range Stand Off missile has come down slightly and the program is on track, but several technologies it relies on are still considered immature, the Government Accountability Office found in a report.

Meanwhile, the GAO also assessed the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile as being on cost with all its critical technologies expected to be ready on time—yet still a year behind schedule.

The developments are noted in GAO’s 2023 Weapon Systems Annual Assessments, released June 8, which report to Congress on the status of programs across the services. The LRSO and the Sentinel—USAF’s two strategic nuclear missile modernization programs—are among 14 Air Force programs included in the report.

The GAO report’s data is current as of March, so some information may be out of date.   

The LRSO, which will succeed the AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile and will be deployed on the B-52 bomber, saw a slight programmatic cost decrease since last year’s report; total predicted costs have declined from $15.1 billion in development and procurement costs to $14.9 billion, a difference of about one percent. The projected unit cost of LRSO has also come down, from an expected $13.9 million per missile to $13.75 million apiece, across an estimated purchase of 1,087 weapons.

However, GAO noted that the Air Force’s cost estimates for the nuclear missile and those of the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) differ, and OSD “found procurement could cost $1.9 billion more than the Air Force estimate.”

The difference is the result of OSD using data from previous nuclear missile programs, while the Air Force used “proposed data, purchase order, and actual cost data from parts of recently-built LRSO missiles,” GAO said, apparently finding the Air Force’s numbers more convincing.

At the critical design review in February-March, OSD’s numbers were used, but the program has asked OSD to conduct another estimate in 2023, based on data from test LRSO missiles.

The GAO assessed the missile’s design as “stable.” The program started out in 2021 with what the GAO deemed “immature technologies,” and since then, two are considered mature, three are approaching maturity and one—nuclear hardness—is still considered immature. The greatest amount of immaturity in the program has to do with the nuclear warhead technologies and not the vehicle. The Department of Energy doesn’t expect to mature those elements until 2025, GAO reported. That imposes risk on the program, because starting development without demonstrating critical technologies means there could be costly work later on.

A “system-level prototype” of LRSO was tested in 2022, and the GAO said test flights of LRSO vehicles have taken place. While the Energy Department told GAO there’s a risk of an 18-month delay in warhead development, the program office will use surrogate warheads to mitigate any delays, the audit agency said.

“The Air Force plans to demonstrate missile-critical manufacturing processes on a pilot production line prior to the production decision in 2027,” GAO said. “Our prior work found this testing provides decision makers confidence that the contractor can meet quality, cost, and schedule goals.

Responding to the GAO, the program office said “LRSO development is on track for on-time fielding.”

The next big milestone for LRSO will be the low-rate production decision in mid-2027. Operational testing is slated to be complete by the end of calendar 2028 and the go-ahead for full-rate production is planned for early 2029. The Air Force won’t reveal the planned initial operational capability date due to classification, GAO said.

Sentinel

The Sentinel program, while still on cost, is seeing about a year’s delay, the GAO said. According to the program timeline accompanying the new report’s entry on Sentinel, initial operational capability is now expected between April and June 2030, about a year later than previous estimates, and skating close to the no-fail IOC of September 2030 required by U.S. Strategic Command.

“Sentinel is behind schedule due to staffing shortfalls, delays with clearance processing, and classified information technology infrastructure challenges,” the GAO said. “Additionally, the program is experiencing supply chain disruptions, leading to further schedule delays.”

In fact, the program’s master schedule contains “many deficiencies” and can’t be used to effectively manage the program, the GAO said, adding that contractor Northrop Grumman is reviewing the schedule and discussing how it may be changed.

The GAO also chalked up some delay to cybersecurity risk reduction activities. Cybersecurity requirements have been delayed pending the maturation of program requirements and “architecture models,” the GAO said, “resulting in schedule delays and cost growth.”

The program, which GAO called “complex,” will replace the Minuteman III ICBM as well as missile silos and the command-and-control system undergirding it. All that is estimated to cost $85.1 billion, including development, manufacture, and construction, the GAO said, noting that this estimate—dated January 2023—is exactly the same as the baseline estimate in September 2020.

The GAO said that of Sentinel’s 18 critical technologies, three are mature, 14 are approaching maturity and just one is immature, but the program expects to get all of those up to maturity before production begins in 2026.

The program has “successfully completed developmental tests of the new rocket motor and other missile components,” GAO said.

Although the digital approach taken to Sentinel’s design has been highly lauded by members of Congress and the DOD—praising the fact that it evaluated millions of alternatives before settling on an optimum configuration—GAO said the digital engineering environment for the program remains incomplete.

The environment “enables the digital integration of program’s data, tools, and model-based systems engineering activities to accelerate design and analysis,” but the fact that it’s still incomplete “is adding risk to Sentinel’s schedule, including major milestones such as system-level critical design review and first flight, both planned for fiscal year 2024.” The GAO said the digital environment was expected to reach IOC by the second quarter of fiscal 2023.

Critical design review is set for April-June 2024, with low-rate production expected exactly two years later. Operational testing will conclude in the fall of 2029, with IOC in mid-2030, and full-rate production later that year. The Air Force plans to buy 659 Sentinels, accounting for silo-deployed missiles and test units.  

The program office pointed out to GAO that “Sentinel is a total system replacement of the intercontinental ballistic missile system’s 400 missiles, 450 silos, and more than 600 facilities over a 31,900 square-mile landmass. … Sentinel is one of the top priorities within the Department of Defense, and the program has the attention and focus of the department’s senior leadership.”

GAO Notes Risks to Space Force Satellite Programs

GAO Notes Risks to Space Force Satellite Programs

June 9, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

In its annual review of significant Pentagon weapons programs, the Government Accountability Office found issues with two high-profile Space Force programs: one the service sees as a model of its path forward and another that may end up being a product of the past.

Among other programs, GAO assessed the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), which is based on a vision of hundreds of small satellites going up in low-Earth orbit every few years with new capabilities in “tranches.” The office also looked at the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR), a group of four planned highly capable missile warning satellites.

The PWSA, while one program, will have several roles. Some satellites are part of the so-called Transport Layer for communications, while others are part of the Tracking Layer to observe missiles and other objects.

The GAO reviewed each layer separately in its report, since different technologies and contractors are used. The SDA wants the program to be modular and open to new technologies and refreshed small satellites every two years. SDA officials acknowledge their model is not typically how the U.S. government designs weapons programs.

“SDA faces challenges with integrating a complex system of multiple vendors and segments into a proliferated constellation of hundreds of satellites, intended to be enhanced every two years,” the GAO report states.

According to the GAO, the Tracking Layer plans to be tested in March 2026 prior to operations. The SDA plans for the Transport Layer are slightly ahead of schedule for the Tracking Layer, which is “intended to be an incremental evolution from the Tranche 0 Tracking Layer,” the GAO wrote. But Tranche 0 is not yet fully up—the second Tranche 0 launch is planned for this month, after the first one in April. The SDA plans to test Tranche 1 Transport Layer in September 2024, the GAO said. The GAO report was released June 8 but is only current as of January 2023.

Growing pains are not a new concern for the PWSA. In comments to the GAO, the program office said it is “delivering resilient, responsive, threat-driven space-based capabilities to the warfighter.”

Importantly, it added that the SDA “values schedule and speed.”

In April, the SDA said the first parts of Tranche 1 would be fielded by the end of 2024.

SDA’s model is seen as the way of the future, in some form or another, for the USSF. Department of the Air Force leaders say they would rather invest in increased numbers of cheaper satellites rather than fewer ones that cost hundreds of millions of dollars with long timelines and lengthy requirements. 

That issue is precisely one noted by GAO for another program, the Next-Gen OPIR satellites—a group of highly capable and highly expensive missile warning spacecraft designed to track objects such as hypersonic missiles.

GAO estimated the cost of the program to be just over $6 billion and stated it had much work to do to meet a 2025 launch timeline. According to the GAO, there are “several high-risk” parts of the program.

Last year, GAO estimated the cost of Next Gen-OPIR to be $5.6 billion, roughly 9 percent less than this year’s figure. It will also probably be late, the GAO added.

“Our review of this program indicates that delivery of both payloads and the first launch are likely to be delayed,” the GAO wrote. The primary payloads are infrared sensors.

The Space Force has public concerns of its own. In its fiscal 2024 budget, which could be changed by Congress, the USSF cut one of the original three planned geosynchronous orbit satellites. There are also two highly elliptical orbit satellites as part of the program, which provide polar coverage.

Testifying before Congress in March, Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said OPIR still had a critical, “no-fail” mission the service planned to deliver. But long-term, Saltzman added, “GEO satellites are too much of a target.”

“The architecture that we really need is one that’s survivable in a contested domain,” he added.

PHOTOS: US Flexes ‘Overwhelming Power’ in Middle East with B-1 Mission

PHOTOS: US Flexes ‘Overwhelming Power’ in Middle East with B-1 Mission

June 9, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancer bombers fired advanced munitions in a live-fire exercise in the Middle East, the latest display of American muscle in the region.

Two B-1s took off from RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom on June 7 and released precision munitions—JDAM guided bombs and an AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile—the next day at ranges in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. has stepped up its air and sea operations in the area amid Iran’s aggressive posture and thawing relations with Saudi Arabia.

“These bomber missions represent the U.S.’s commitment to our partners and showcase our ability to deliver overwhelming power at a moment’s notice,” Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the Air Forces Central (AFCENT) commander, said in a June 8 statement. “Today was a demonstration of that capability and the strength of our partnerships.”

Five partner nations joined the effort, according to the command. Bomber Task Force missions are often escorted by allied fighters, and Israel released a photo of its participation.

The mission comes as America is conducting a separate military exercise in Saudi Arabia, Eagle Resolve.

Last fall, the Biden administration said it would reevaluate America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia as the kingdom moved to keep oil prices high after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. But since then, Iranian-backed militias have launched deadly attacks on American facilities, harassed vessels in the Arabian Gulf, and Washington has sought to improve relations with Riyadh.

“It is a strategic relationship,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Asharq News during a visit to Saudi Arabia.  “I think what we’re seeing is an increasing convergence in our partnership to advance in issues of mutual interest to Saudi Arabia, to the United States, and, for that matter, to countries in the region and beyond.”

Air Forces Central’s A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, which can carry Small Diameter Bombs and other precision-guided munitions, have flown missions over the Arabian Sea, as have Navy anti-ship P-8 Poseidons.

The two B-1s that took off from RAF Fairford are part of a four-bomber task force from Dyess Air Force Base, Texas.

The four Bones have had a busy deployment over the last couple of weeks. 

Two of the planes flew directly toward the Baltics and were met by a Russian fighter in what U.S. officials stressed was a safe interaction. A week later, two planes flew over Sarajevo in Bosnia and Herzegovina amid renewed ethnic tensions in the Balkans. B-1s also participated in an Arctic security exercise with America’s European allies in a flight over the North Sea earlier this week.

B-1s began preparing for their latest Middle East mission in CENTCOM as AGM-158 JASSMs were loaded onto the aircraft. The aircraft traded the High North for the Middle East and its 100-degree summer heat, refueling during the mission from KC-10 Extenders, which took off from Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, and KC-135 Stratotankers from Al Udied.

“These activities reinforced the U.S. commitment to contributing to the security and stability of the Middle East region and demonstrate the increasing complexity, deepening military interoperability, and strength of our shared defense capabilities,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patricks S. Ryder told reporters.