New Study: USAF Needs Big Cash Infusion to Overcome Aging Fighter Fleet

New Study: USAF Needs Big Cash Infusion to Overcome Aging Fighter Fleet

Without a large corrective investment, the Air Force’s aged fighter force is breaking under the pressure of its small size, insufficient training time for high-end warfare, and chronic shortages of pilots and maintainers, according to a new report from the Air & Space Forces Association’s Mitchell Institute.

“We’re on a collision course” with real-world demands outstripping the fighter force’s ability to answer the call, said retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, one of the authors of the report. Fighter force readiness could “fall off a cliff,” added Guastella, whose last job in the Air Force was as deputy chief of staff for operations.

The Air Force’s resources and capabilities don’t match the National Defense Strategy, said retired Lt. Gen David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute. In the face of an assertive China with rapidly increasing military capabilities, an aggressive Russia, and continuing demand for airpower from regional commanders, the need for comprehensive, capable airpower has never been greater, he said.

“It may take losing” a major war to get the public to understand the gravity of the deficit in airpower, he said, and by then, it will be too late.

A “modernization holiday” of the fighter force since the mid-1990s has left the service in a “capacity freefall,” said Doug Birkey, co-author and Mitchell’s executive director. He described USAF’s fighter force as “geriatric” and woefully undersized for what the nation expects of it.

The report authors urged the Air Force to buy more F-35s, especially since force structure decisions of the past hinged on the assumption that the fifth-generation F-35 fleet would be fully acquired by the early 2030s—but that never materialized.

The A-10Cs, F-15C/Ds, and F-16C/Ds which were designed in the 1970s  “now average 41, 38 and 32 years old,” Birkey said, and all have long outlived their planned service lives. Age has a cost, Guastella added: the older aircraft get, the more more maintenance and parts they require, which in turn means fewer flying hours for crews.

For the first time, Deptula said, China’s pilots are getting more flying hours than U.S. Air Force pilots, and that additional training “makes a difference.” The Navy and Marine Corps have their own fighters, but their first objectives are fleet defense and close air support. The Air Force is expected to provide the bulk of fighter capacity over all regions but has been shortchanged in funding, Deptula argued.

“Over the last 30 years, the Army has received $1.3 trillion more than the Air Force, and the Navy has received $900 billion more,” he said. “It’s time to redress these imbalances” and correct the long-overdue recapitalization of USAF’s fighter force, especially in light of the modern threat, he said.

The authors did not offer an exact dollar figure by which the Air Force’s budget should grow, but Deptula said the nation can bear the additional expense needed to correct the long neglect of the fighter force. The cost of not doing so far outweighs the expense of fixing the situation, he argued.  

Asked to “triage” the various fighter programs now on the books—whether the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter or Collaborative Combat Aircraft are more important than F-35 acquisitions, for example—Deptula said the whole slate of capabilities is needed and none can be traded off.

The Mitchell report offered 10 recommendations:

Buy more fighters

The fighter force has dwindled from 4,556 aircraft in 1990 to 2,176 today—and will continue to fall, as USAF is retiring 801 fighters and only buying 345 through 2028, the report notes. Although the Air Force is requesting 72 fighters in 2024, the number it has long said it needs to buy every year, that number no longer stops the rate at which the fleet is aging. To achieve a sustainable 20-year refresh rate, the report says, USAF needs to buy 109 fighters a year. That would hold down long-term sustainment costs. By contrast, 72 maintains a 30-year refresh rate. Collaborative Combat Aircraft are not included in either calculation.

Stick with F-35 Upgrades

The Joint Program Office that runs the F-35 program must keep the Technical Refresh 3 and Block 4 upgrades on schedule. This requires a coordinated team effort among the JPO, industry, the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and allied partners.

Develop a Force-Sizing Construct

The Air Force should develop and implement a force-sizing construct, and explain to Congress why it is necessary. In 2018, the Air Force set a goal of 386 squadrons, but Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said last year that USAF is no longer pursuing that goal. Gen. Mark Kelly, head of Air Combat Command, has said the Air Force needs 60 fighter squadrons, and the report endorsed that figure as a floor. Right now, the nation has no public yardstick by which to measure how much airpower it has or needs, Deptula said.

Harness Cost-Per-Effect Analysis

Birkey argued fighters and fixed-wing combat aircraft generally yield a much lower cost per effect achieved than other means. Deptula pointed to investments by the Army and Navy in capabilities like long-range hypersonic missiles “with a small warhead, that cost $40-$50 million per shot” that have little impact in an extended air campaign. For two such missiles, the Air Force could buy an F-35 which could be reused again and again, he said. Services need to consider how to prosecute targets in the most cost-effective manner, he insisted.

Ensure Testing Doesn’t Slow Fielding

The Air Force has a deficit of testing capability, but “perfection is the enemy of ‘good enough’,” the paper states. Deptula said the U.S. no longer has the luxury of time to get new systems just right; instead, testing must be streamlined, test capacity must be expanded, and new technologies should be used to compress testing cycles.

Monitor Industrial Base Capacity

The industrial base “cannot support” the level of production the Air Force needs, Birkey said, thanks to years of the Pentagon buying a bare minimum of tactical aviation assets. The Ukraine war has highlighted the need for greater capacity and the Pentagon should assess its industrial base and provide incentives for surge production, the report said.

Stop ‘Divest to Invest’

The Air Force’s plan of retiring older equipment and using the savings to fund new systems “may have worked when inventories were larger” but no longer makes sense when fighter numbers are so low, the report argues. The planned reduction of more than 1,000 USAF aircraft across the next five years shows how short the Air Force is of needed modernization funds, and if it plays out, it will be a “capacity death spiral,” Birkey said. More funding is needed “today to modernize for the future and make up for years of anemic aircraft buys.”

Human Capital

Guastella said the Air Force has “spent years admiring the problem of the pilot shortage” but hasn’t taken any significant steps to correct it. The fighter pilot shortage is the most acute, and there is also a lack of qualified maintainers. The Air Force needs to make a full press on assessing retention, expanding its training capacity, and setting manpower force-sizing goals, the report states.   

Guard and Reserve

The Air Force has been using its Reserve force and Air National Guard as operational adjuncts. Guard units are slated to bear the brunt of coming divestments, Birkey said. Moreover, retiring aircraft without an immediate replacement flying mission means people will leave the Guard and Reserve, and the Air Force can’t afford to lose that expertise, he argued. The report urged members of the Air Guard—who are free, in their private lives, to advocate to Congress—to be a “powerful and credible voice on Capitol Hill” to signal the “severity of the problem.”

The Allied Component

The report recommends increasing production capacity for F-35—currently topping out at 156 per year—to meet increasing demand following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Allied fighter forces flying the F-35 are among the key strategic values of the joint strike fighter, Deptula said. Yet the Air Force should be careful not to assume all allied fighters are available all the time. Allies in the midst of a war theater will be focused on homeland defense and may not have capacity to contribute aircraft to coalition air operations against an aggressor.

NORAD, Allies Practice Intercepting B-1s Returning from Europe

NORAD, Allies Practice Intercepting B-1s Returning from Europe

The U.S. and its allies intercepted American B-1 bombers coming across the Atlantic toward North America, in a NORAD-led exercise simulating an enemy attack on June 26.

During an exercise dubbed Noble Defender, B-1 Lancers that were leaving Europe after a month-long Bomber Task Force deployment were successively tracked and intercepted by the U.S., Canadian, British, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish militaries.

A NORAD official told Air & Space Forces Magazine two B-1s were met in the skies by four U.K. fighters—two F-35s and two Eurofighter Typhoons. Denmark sent two F-16s, Sweden sent two JAS-39 Gripens, Norway sent two F-35s, and Finland sent two F-18s.

“All nations sequentially intercepted … B-1 Lancers in the North Atlantic region and off the east coast of Canada as it transited from Europe to North America on June 26,” NORAD said in a statement posted on Twitter.

Protecting from the simulated threat to the U.S. and Canada were two U.S. F-15C Eagles from Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass., two Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighters—a variant of the American F/A-18 Hornet—and a U.S. KC-135 Stratotanker, the NORAD official added. NORAD, short for North American Aerospace Defense Command, is a joint U.S.-Canadian effort.

“NORAD units executed maneuvers designed to defend the eastern approach of North America from simulated cruise missile threats in this particular operation,” according to the 104th Fighter Wing at Barnes.

The NORAD official noted that the command holds regular iterations of Noble Defender, which vary depending on the specific exercise, to keep its forces ready

“These intercepts demonstrated a cooperative and collaborative layered defense to strengthen our ability to deter potential threats,” NORAD added in its statement.

The intercepts made a full-circle deployment for the B-1s assigned to the 7th Bomb Wing at Dyess Air Force Base, Texas. The “Bones” were immediately met by a Russian Su-27 fighter when they entered European airspace in late May. A total of four B-1s completed the BTF, which involved the first landing of U.S. bombers in Sweden since World War II, as the U.S. looks to signal its growing alliance with the prospective NATO member.

U.S. Air Forces in Europe said in a press release that the highlights of the deployment included “the historic landing in Sweden and the first-ever hot-pit refueling in Romania.”

“The landing in Sweden fortified not only the friendship between the U.S. and Sweden, but the collective defense of Europe,” the USAFE release added.

The aircraft also flew over the Baltics and Balkans, participated in an Arctic defense exercise, flew all the way to the Middle East and back in a live-fire launch of a JASSM long-range cruise missile and JDAM guided bombs over Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and participated in the Paris Air Show.

“Throughout their rotation, the B-1B Lancers have built critical relationships throughout the Arctic, Central, and Eastern European regions, which has enhanced the coalition’s ability to respond to incursions threatening freedom of maneuver and navigation,” USAFE said.

Just 14.5 Percent Of Eligible Airmen Make Tech Sergeant, Lowest Rate in 27 Years

Just 14.5 Percent Of Eligible Airmen Make Tech Sergeant, Lowest Rate in 27 Years

Out of 36,913 eligible Air Force staff sergeants, just 5,354—14.5 percent—were selected for promotion to technical sergeant this year, the Air Force announced June 29. The rate is the lowest since 1996, when just 11.2 percent of eligible Airmen were selected for E-6, not including supplemental promotions, Air Force Personnel Center spokesman Michael Dickerson told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The announcement marks yet another rough promotion cycle for noncommissioned officers. Air Force officials announced last year that there will be lower-than-usual promotion rates among the NCO corps in the near future, as the service looks to course correct after promoting too many Airmen with insufficient experience into senior noncommissioned officer ranks.

“The majority of the experience decline was attributable to the Air Force trying to achieve an enlisted force structure with too many higher grades,” Col. James Barger, Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency commander, said in a statement at the time. “We also found that experience levels would continue to decline unless the Air Force lays in more junior Airmen allocations and fewer E5-E7 allocations.”

The trend is set to continue for at least another year or so: Barger said at the time that the goal was to reach a “healthier” distribution of Airmen across grades by fiscal 2025.

Amid a rash of low promotion rates in 2022, the competition for promotion to staff sergeants (E-5) was particularly brutal—just 21.1 percent of eligible Airmen were promoted, the lowest mark since 1997. This year’s E-6 numbers exceeded that, in contrast to the promotion rates for technical sergeants trying to hit the E-7 rank of master sergeant, which recovered slightly in 2023.

All told, 4,998 out of 28,831 eligible Airmen were selected for E-7 this year, a rate of 17.34 percent, the Air Force announced in May. That figure was the third lowest rate for E-7 since 2010, but it was up from 2022’s 14.8 percent.

The 1996 low point for E-6 promotions also took place within a batch of lean years. The selection rate for E-6 never rose above 13 percent from 1993 to 1996, excluding supplemental promotions, Dickerson pointed out. The military rapidly shrank throughout the 1990s in response to the end of the Cold War, going from about 2.1 million personnel in 1990 to under 1.4 million in 2000, according to RAND.

Though technical and master sergeants had a lean 2023, one rank of enlisted Airmen enjoyed their highest promotion rates since 2012. In March, the Air Force selected 1,629 master sergeants to promote to the E-8 rank of senior master sergeants out of an eligible 16,031, a rate of 10.16 percent. 

YEARSELECTEDELIGIBLERATE
20235,35436,91314.50
20225,43033,93516
20219,42234,97326.94
20208,24628,35829.08
20199,46729,32832.28
20188,41627,55530.54
20178,16725,55231.96
20167,50133,56922.35
20158,44635,86323.55
20146,68438,34417.43
20135,65437,60815.03
20128,51837,40222.77
Sources: Air Force news releases, Air Force Times
Head of ICBM Cancer Study Says the Air Force Is ‘Fully Invested’

Head of ICBM Cancer Study Says the Air Force Is ‘Fully Invested’

The Air Force’s study into possible cancer risks associated with work on intercontinental ballistic missiles will be a comprehensive review—and will not favor the service over evidence, medical officials leading the effort insisted.

“We need our solutions to be driven by science and data,” Col. Tory Woodard, the commander of the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM), told Air & Space Forces Magazine in a recent interview alongside a cadre of other experts.

Long-held concerns of former missileers and other personnel that supported the Air Force’s ICBM mission came to the fore earlier this year after a presentation detailing cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a blood cancer, at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. appeared online. Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere, head of Air Force Global Strike Command, which is in charge of the nation’s ICBM fleet, soon ordered a review of the issue, which led to the Missile Community Cancer Study designed by USAFSAM. The study has two parts: environmental sampling and an epidemiological study, which will take 12-14 months to complete, to assess cancer rates.

“This epidemiologic study that we’re focused on is very complex,” Woodard said. “It has a lot of layers, a lot of different time periods, risk assessment, and things that factor into this.”

When embarking on the study, the study team conducted initial site visits to active ICBM bases in late February and early March. The visits flagged some acute issues, such as signage denoting the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls, a banned hazardous chemical that was supposedly removed. But the purpose of the visit was to orient the medical personnel with ICBM operations. Officials said visits helped the study team realize their examination, both environmental and epidemiological, should not be confined to the missileers in underground bunkers in 24-48 hour shifts, but also include a wide array of people that work on the bases, which stretch out over silos fields in five states anchored at three bases—Malmstrom, F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyo., and Minot Air Force Base, N.D.

“We certainly changed our thought process on some of the hazards and things that were there,” Woodard said. “We also expanded our population of interest based on interviewing and seeing” the layout of the ICBM bases.

That population, comprising both current and former service members, includes those who work in underground launch control centers and top-side missile alert facilities, but also maintainers, food service personnel, and security forces, among others. The Air Force often does not own the land around launch facilities, and unknown exposure to agricultural chemicals has been cited as a possible issue by service officials.

“We wanted to assess the base environment as a whole,” Woodard said. “We learned and this was just simply because we were a part of that environment.”

The expanding study population presents a challenge: not putting those at highest risk into a large pool that artificially dilutes concerning data.

“We really developed two populations that we are studying in parallel,” Woodard said. “The first is just the missileers. The missileers were the ones who lived down below ground, they pulled the 24-hour shifts down in the [Launch Control Centers]. Then the other is the associated personnel. We will look at those two groups separately, so we get the cancer rate within the missileers and the cancer rate within the missile-associated career fields.”

However, the Air Force has investigated the issue before and found nothing of concern, to the skepticism of some current and former service members and their families.

Concerns are most prominent at Malmstrom, which was subject to an initial study of the increased rates of cancer in 2001 and another review in 2005, as well as the recent presentation that spurred the current study. 

“The study previously was on a much smaller scale and did not have the support that it does now—Air Force Global Strike, the Air Force Surgeon General’s office, Air Force leadership is fully invested,” Woodard said.

The issue has drawn the scrutiny of Congress, with Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) raising the issue with the Air Force and Veterans Administration, according to his office. In April, Tester visited Malmstrom with Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall.

“The Air Force has been transparent with the public about their findings through the Global Strike Command website,” Eli Cousin, a spokesperson for Tester, told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

However, Cousin said Tester would continue to “press to make sure every potentially impacted individual is made aware of this situation, receives the appropriate health assessment, and is offered the appropriate care he or she needs.”

Air Force Global Strike Command and the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine, while not finding any specific faults with earlier studies, say there are better positioned than prior medical teams to draw accurate conclusions.

“It would be unfair for me to really answer questions about how it was done 20 years ago, except to assess that the environment is different now—our knowledge of the disease, our knowledge of occupational hazards is much different,” Woodard said. “We have access to databases and we have technology that we didn’t have then.”

Woodard also credited AFGSC with giving medical officials better access to facilities and clearing personnel and equipment.

It is “easier and quicker for us to bring a larger range of environmental sampling equipment into the restricted areas, which will allow us to better assess the current—and future—environment,” Woodard said.

However, while different commands are involved, ultimately the Air Force is investigating itself. 

“We do not set our own standards,” Woodard said when asked whether the Air Force has less stringent standards for hazardous material than other entities.

“Things that we knew about occupational hazards and occupational exposures and have certainly progressed,” Woodard said. “That has significantly changed the way that our population and the way that our individuals manage their occupational hazards and the way that we inform our military people.”

USAFSAM has done large-scale studies before, such as a review of cancer cases among pilots, which found an elevated risk. Woodard said USAFSAM’s position inside the Air Force was helpful in getting access to and collecting data, which is being mined from military and state cancer registries among other sources.

“We already have pre-existing relationships with some of the DOD and other entities that allow us the data pull,” Woodard said. “If an outside entity tried to come in and do this study, they would have significant delays.”

But USAFSAM officials acknowledged the Air Force needed some outside input.

“We’re in continued and early collaboration with the VA and the National Cancer Institute,” Woodard said.

There are some gaps in the population the Air Force is studying. The service has cited better access to medical electronic medical records, but as the medical officials have acknowledged, the USAF did not consider certain elements hazardous in the past or had higher tolerances for hazardous material. Some former missileers and their family members have expressed concern that the Air Force will never fully account for hazards that existed further back into the 1960s and 1970s, as complete records may not have been kept or may no longer exist. Officials said the planned environmental monitoring is extensive—roughly 2,000 samples per base, according to Woodard—but only the three active facilities are covered.

“We’re also involved with Global Strike historians and researchers in trying to develop the backstory to help us provide the data to do this study,” Woodard said. “Really our focus right now is let’s focus on the epidemiologic study so we know what the cancer risks may be so that we can address those. The exposures that were done in the past, we will evaluate those when the time comes, but I want to protect today’s people.”

The team recently started environmental sampling at Malmstrom.

Woodard said the service wants to ensure that if there are any problems with the current environment or equipment, they’re resolved before the aging Minuteman III missiles are soon replaced with the new Sentinel ICBMs.

“We want to make sure that we don’t make the same mistakes or any potential mistakes,” with the Sentinel, Woodard said.

Top officials at USAFSAM, AFGSC, and the Space Force, which counts over 400 former missleers among its ranks, have engaged in town halls to address the issue, and the running updates online reflect a desire to inform the community, they say.

“As we get information, we will publicize that information,” Woodard said. “We’re not just going to say call us in 14 months and we’ll let you know what happened.”

As the Air Force Prepares for Austere Ops, Who Will Watch the Weather?

As the Air Force Prepares for Austere Ops, Who Will Watch the Weather?

OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, Neb. For decades, when Air Force weather specialists have deployed downrange, they’ve relied on the Tactical Meteorological Observing System (TMOS), a device that can measure temperature, wind speed, dew point, and a range of other phenomena that pilots rely on for takeoff and landing. The TMOS is rugged and reliable, but it is also heavy, weighing almost 200 pounds with all its modules attached.

USAF weather specialists may have some heavy lifting in their future, as the service prepares for a possible conflict against a near-peer adversary. In such a conflict, the Air Force plans to use Agile Combat Employment—a concept whereby Airmen operate from small, austere airfields and move out again at a moment’s notice.

For the Airmen responsible for providing crucial weather data, such moves are part of the job sometimes.

“You hear stories all the time about dudes having to jump TOC (tactical operations center) and move like a mile and a half away, so they have to pack it all up, attach cord to all these little handles, strap them to their belt and just drag this thing to the new location,” Tech Sgt. Kyle Chambers, of the 2nd Weather Squadron at Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “They stop, set it all up and then an hour later they have to jump TOC and do it all over again.”

Though a difficult task, hauling a TMOS to a new location speaks to the commitment Air Force weather specialists have for their profession, since local commanders rely on the data they provide to make life-or-death decisions.

“Nine times out of 10 it will be an Airman First Class or a Senior Airman answering the phone call from the major or the colonel and they have to explain what’s going on with the weather,” Chambers said. “They may have been in for just 2.5 years but they have to give them an answer. ‘I don’t know’ does not work.”

air force weather
Members of the 455th Expeditionary Operations Support Squadron conduct an inspection of a Tactical Meteorological Observation System or TMQ-53 at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, May 16, 2016. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Justyn M. Freeman)

Many weather specialists already have experience working in bare-bones environments. For example, Air Force combat weather squadrons routinely send Airmen to deploy with Army units in places accessible only by helicopter.

“Anywhere we can sit up and brief anybody that needs to be briefed, we’re right there with them,” Chambers said. “It can be out at the National Training Center [at Fort Irwin, Calif.], where it’s 30 days of wiping yourself off with baby wipes and water bottle showers. That’s about as gritty and grimy as it gets.”

Chambers once found himself camping out on a glacier in an isolated mountain pass in Alaska as part of Colony Glacier, the annual operation to recover the remains and wreckage of 52 crew and passengers killed aboard an Air Force transport plane that crashed there in 1952. It was up to him and a few other weather specialists to take daily weather observations and relay those back to nearby bases so that helicopter pilots knew whether to expect fog, high-winds or other weather conditions on their way into the pass. 

Though there are fewer amenities in an austere location compared to an Air Force base, forecasting the weather is largely the same in both, Chambers said, as long as the weather specialist knows what they are doing. Usually that experience comes from serving in a base’s weather flight, where weather specialists get to know how pilots and decision-makers use weather information in an operational setting.

“Having that competency, knowing what to do next, is the most important part of ACE,” he said.

It also helps that Air Force weather specialists will become more mobile over the next few years as the sturdy TMOS is decommissioned to make way for the Integrated Weather Observation System (IWOS). The IWOS weighs about only 40 pounds, which “makes it a whole lot easier to get around,” said Michael Thompson, a retired master sergeant with decades of experience in meteorology and who is now a civilian cyber support technician for the 2nd Weather Support Squadron at Offutt.

Thompson played a leading role in designing the TMOS, and he said the IWOS has the capabilities that weather specialists need but with a smaller footprint. The device is solar-powered, which also reduces the demand for hauling power. 

Commanders “need things to be small but also able to handle any environment,” which is why the IWOS is appealing, he said. 

air force weather
Staff Sgt. Damian Burke, 8th Operations Support Squadron weather forecaster, uses a laser range finder to test distance of visibility at Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, Dec. 2, 2021. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jesenia Landaverde)

Still, neither the TMOS or the IWOS is a panacea. In Europe or the continental United States, Air Force weather specialists enjoy a wealth of data collected by civilian weather balloons, permanent radar sites, and other robust tools. But those facilities may not be present in deployed areas such as the Middle East or the western Pacific, which prompts weather specialists to use “limited data forecasting techniques,” said Tech Sgt. Faith Glas-Miller, of Offutt’s 2nd Systems Operations Squadron.

“You might not have traditional radar sides at these locations, so you have to rely on our tactical equipment: stuff we can actually pick up and take with us,” she said.

Air Force weather specialists aim to do their best even if all they have is a handheld Kestrel weather sensor and a pen, but even their best efforts may not do any good without communications, Chambers warned.

“You have to be there, but you have to have comms,” he said.

Weather specialists are not the only ones concerned about communications in a near-peer fight. The Air Force writ large is grappling with how to fight if long distance communications via satellite or undersea cables are jammed or severed. If those links are interrupted, commanders may have to resort to older methods, like sending ferry couriers through the air or overland or using aircraft as datalink or radio relays, RAND wrote in 2019, though these may be slower or more limited than the usual methods.

The military cannot guarantee all of its usual communication systems would survive a fight, so the Air Force is trying to encourage junior leaders to take the initiative if cut off from higher command.

“By empowering subordinates at the lowest capable level to make decisions and take decisive action at their level, mission command provides the flexibility and agility required to seize opportunities despite enemy denial or degradation of communications,” the service wrote in a 2021 explainer on the doctrine of ACE.

Those leaders will likely rely on an Air Force weather specialist nearby to help them out.

“You have all the excuses in the world: ‘I didn’t have this or that [equipment],’ but you have to try,” Chambers said. “You don’t want to be bad at your job in these situations, so you have to refine your skills, you have to try.”

T-7 Makes Its First Official Test Flight with an Air Force Pilot

T-7 Makes Its First Official Test Flight with an Air Force Pilot

Air Force flight testing for the T-7A Red Hawk kicked off June 28, with a USAF pilot flying the advanced trainer from contractor Boeing’s St. Louis, Mo., facilities. The event, announced by Boeing, marks the first official test flight conducted by an Air Force pilot and the beginning of the T-7’s engineering and manufacturing development phase.

Maj. Bryce Turner of the 416th Test Squadron and director of the T-7 Integrated Test Force and Boeing T-7 chief test pilot Steve Schmidt took the tandem-seat jet aloft for 63 minutes, checking the aircraft’s basic flying qualities, according to a Boeing release. In a statement, Turner reported the aircraft was stable in flight and “performs like a fighter.”

The first flight was in aircraft 21-7005, the first of five airplanes Boeing is providing to support the Air Force’s T-7A test program. Saab of Sweden is Boeing’s partner on the program and builds much of the mid-plane and tail of the trainer.

Boeing flew its pre-production prototype T-7As—called T-1 and T-2—during the T-X competition, which it won in 2019, and has since accumulated hundreds of hours on the two aircraft, verifying aspects of the design. Although retired Gen. Mike Holmes, then-head of Air Combat Command, flew one the two prototypes, the ride was not an official test flight. The aircraft that flew June 28 was the first of the production configuration, which differs from that of the prototypes.   

The first flight with an Air Force pilot represents Boeing’s “commitment to delivering a new level of safety and training for fighter and bomber pilots,” said Evelyn Moore, vice president and T-7 program manager for Boeing. “We remain focused on engineering ways to better prepare warfighters for changing mission demands and emerging threats.”

The official start of testing was delayed several months as the Air Force and Boeing refined the escape system of the trainer, after ejection testing with manikins indicated unacceptable head and neck stress on pilots at the smaller end of the expected range of student pilot physiques. The trainer is the first USAF aircraft to be designed to accommodate a broad range of body sizes, with the specific intent of making USAF flying slots available to more women. The T-7 program is also grappling with some software and flight control issues.  

The Air Force expects to buy 351 T-7As to replace its T-38 Talons, many of which are over 60 years old and will need further life extension due to delays in the T-7 program. The Government Accountability Office said in May the program will likely slip beyond the two years of delay already incurred.  

Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter told Congress in April that initial operational capability of the T-7A will not be achieved until 2027, compared to its original target of 2024 and a second benchmark of 2026 set in December 2022.

The Air Force zeroed its 2024 funding request for T-7A production on the assumption that it would not be able to begin production on time due to the ejection seat issue. The service has not said whether it may request a reprogramming of funds for that purpose. The fiscal 2024 request did include a forecast of 94 T-7As to be bought over the next five years, at a cost of $2.205 billion.

The next program milestone will be the Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) decision, currently expected to be made by Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante in November. However, the GAO questioned whether the Air Force can move ahead with LRIP, as testing will still be in its early stages by then and details of the production contract and program requirements may not be ironed out. The GAO also questioned whether the Air Force can accept jets ordered before ultimate specifications are set.

Boeing has said some of the program delay has been due to supply chain, labor issues, and inflation. It is developing the T-7 under a fixed-price contract. If fully exercised, the T-7 development and production contract is valued at about $9.2 billion.

Air Force Risks Sub-Optimizing Fighter Engines—Again 

Air Force Risks Sub-Optimizing Fighter Engines—Again 

The F-35 is the most advanced fighter yet built, but decisions and compromises imposed on it more than a decade ago continue to push up its cost, decrease its reliability, limit its performance, and constrain its ability to exploit new technologies. For fighter pilots of my generation who lived through similar challenges, it’s a current reminder that we ignore the lessons of the past at our peril. The U.S. Air Force has long held a qualitative advantage over potential and likely future adversaries. It achieved that through hard work, hard fought wars, and sobering Cold War experiences.

What are those lessons? 

  • Ongoing competition is essential, especially in fighter engines. 
  • Requirements must be defined by warfighters and should not be budget-constrained. 
  • In air dominance, “there are no points for second best,” as the old Grumman Corporation used to say about its F-14. That lesson holds today. 
  • Commonality across service and partner fleets adds cost and invariably leads to performance compromises and disappointing suboptimizations. 

Last week’s Paris Air Show contretemps between Lockheed Martin, maker of the F-35, and Pratt & Whitney, maker of its F135 engines, is a case in point. Lockheed called short-sighted the recent Air Force decision to shelve for now the promising Adaptive Engine Technology Program (AETP) in favor of an engine core upgrade (ECU) and Power Thermal Management System (PTMS) enhancement to the existing F135 engine. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall had previously expressed his own reservations about the decision. 

At issue is whether the F135 will ever produce the power and thermal management capabilities required by the ill-defined Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) and Block 4 avionics enhancements. Pratt’s solution, which it admits offers limited potential upside but is theoretically least costly, is the ECU and improved PTMS. Pratt won the budget argument for inclusion of its answer in the Air Force’s 2024 budget submission. 

At Paris, Pratt’s over-the-top reaction accused Lockheed of putting its wishes ahead of its customers, even as Pratt appeared to be doing precisely the same thing in protecting its perpetual lock on F-35 propulsion over acquiescing to an ongoing and open competition between Pratt and GE entries in the AETP. 

Here, a historic review is instructive: 

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Air Force launched its fourth-generation fighters with a flawed sole-sourced engine. We bet the fleets on Pratt’s F100-PW-100 engine, only to find it not ready for prime time. Our provisioning plans were likewise inadequate. The result: USAF lagged requirements by 1.5 million turbine blades. Whole forming F-15 squadrons sat on the Langley Air Force Base ramp with empty holes where engines should have been. Meanwhile, F-16s risked stall-stagnations in fighter maneuvering, a problem that could only be cleared by inflight shutdown, if afterburner was selected below 250 knots and above 25,000 feet. 

In Saudi Arabia, which had over-provisioned its F-15 engine spares against the day when the USAF might have to come from over the horizon to counter an existential threat to the Kingdom as in Desert Shield/Desert Storm, the initial provisioning of turbine modules was exhausted in 18 months, the result of turbine blade distress from the magnesium dust-laden air of desert operations. The “turkey feather” design of the F-15 nozzle fairings turned out to be a mistake, which resulted in the Eagles operating throughout their life without nozzle fairings. 

Eventually, the consequences of sole-sourcing of our fleet’s engines to a single manufacturer were solved, of course, by competition. The F110-GE-100 and the common engine bays in later F-15s and F-16s made it possible to accommodate either Pratt or GE engines; continuing competition, in turn, met the evolving Air Force requirements for greater thrust and operational utility in the F100 with its -200, -220, and -229 variants. The GE Improved Performance Engine (IPE) -129 and -132 variants further pushed available thrust out from the F100-PW-100’s 24,000 pounds afterburning thrust to 32,000 pounds for the F110-GE-132.

These days, thanks to competitive engine and avionics upgrades, the F-16 is expected to remain in the fleet well past the 50th anniversary of its initial operational capability (IOC). Competition lesson learned—again—for Generation Four, the hard way. 

Even so, that lesson was subsequently disregarded when it came to funding or even supporting an alternative engine for the F-35. GE developed and offered its F136 alternative, but the Pentagon cancelled the program, saving $5 billion in what is now ruefully accepted as a false economy. With hindsight, it’s clear that was a consequential mistake with implications for fifth- and sixth-generation fighters. The Government Accountability Office recently noted the suboptimization of the planned fixes to the originally “under-specced” F135 engine, pointing out that its lack of inherent bleed air and electrical power capacity and growth potential is resulting in overheating at such a rate as to consume spares at substantially greater rates than can be logistically supported. 

Pratt’s ECU and vendor Honeywell’s PTMS enhancement solutions were originally touted as readily available and preserving commonality among the consortium partners’ variants. But it turns out that neither is now likely to be suitable in a single form even for the U.S. variants, and not currently “specced” or available before the early 2030s. 

So much for commonality. 

Collins, an affiliate of Pratt’s under RTX, senses a free-for-all; it is challenging Honeywell’s PTMS vendor lock. Meanwhile, the brilliant Adaptive Engine Technology Program (AETP) has been deferred as unaffordable now, its assets likely transferred to the Next Generation Advanced Propulsion (NGAP) program for the secretive gray world Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) system of systems, which reportedly has prototype(s) already flying.

AETP itself has been redesignated a ‘demonstration’, not a program, with its $4 billion in cumulative funding squeezed off beginning in fiscal 2024. This current status of the AETP is reminiscent of Bill Clements’ (and John Boyd’s) YF-16 and YF-17 lightweight fighter ‘demonstrators’ which, while not originally intended for production, morphed into the successful and ubiquitous F-16 and F-18 programs. 

Similarly, the XA100 (GE) and XA101 (Pratt) ‘demonstrators’ would seem, given funding, to offer a major leap forward in fighter engine technology. The numbers projected for the AETP are mind-boggling in terms of extra thrust, extra bleed air and utility output, and hugely reduced specific fuel consumption on the order of 30 percent over current fan technologies. We should all beware of engine manufacturers’ projections, which can only be kept honest through test and head-to-head competition, but it’s clear the potential for these new engines is tremendous. 

GE XA100
A newly released photo of GE’s XA100 adaptive cycle engine in a U.S. Air Force test cell at Arnold Engineering Development Complex in Tullahoma, Tenn.

It is not clear from the open sources whether the essential, more art-than-science engine/inlet matching to the F-35 was part of the AETP demonstration and those projections. (The initial fitment of the GE110 to the F-16 with its original inlet was mismatched and required enlargement of the F-16 engine inlet to capture the extra airflow needed by the GE110.) Our fighter engines’ performance and reliability have long been the strength of our fleets, while the Chinese continue to struggle with their indigenous WS-15 engine development for the J-20, and the Russians still produce fighter engines with times-between-overhauls measured in hundreds, rather than thousands of hours as USAF’s are.

We should be funding our strengths in the 2024 budgets and beyond, and vigorously protecting our secrets. 

Secretary Kendall has focused on the unavailability of sufficient resources within the Air Force budget share to fund both the ECU and PTMS upgrades to the F135 and the AETP. Here, our Navy friends have reverted to their decades-old playbook of letting the Air Force pay the cost of engine improvements and were unwilling to help fund the exploitation of the AETP. (It took the USAF-provided GE110 option to turn the F-14B/D into the dogfighter the Navy wanted when it bailed from the F-111 program—but didn’t get because it initially used the off-the-shelf F-111 engine with its thermal cycle limitations.) 

Rep. Rob Whitman, chair of the House Armed Services Committee tactical air and land forces subcommittee, managed to insert into the draft 2024 National Defense Authorization Act the continuation of the AETP. It’s unknowable how the issue will fare in Appropriations and in conference, and whether the DOD would reconsider its decision and spend any appropriations for AETP if so prodded by the Congress. 

All the above are facts the Fighter Mafia in the bowels of the Pentagon have doubtless argued with greater specificity and accuracy than I have here. It’s time for the leadership to listen one more time, and to reconsider. The resolution of this debate should be based on service-written requirements and strategic imperatives, not political or budgetary considerations, or even profit driven contractor intramurals. 

Why now? Because the burgeoning threat to our remaining an Indo-Pacific and, therefore a global, power is China and the Chinese Communist Part. 

Western Pacific deterrence, or the outcome of the potential fight over Taiwan should deterrence fail, will turn heavily on our present and future ability to seize, project, and sustain air dominance. 

We must fund adaptive engine technology through tough trades—AETP vs. interim and stealth tanker/multimission platform force sizing, for example—and externally from rebalanced land force’s budget shares to field quickly this breakout Adaptive Engine technology. Doing so will ensure the U.S. retains air dominance capability and capacity over the vast reaches of the Pacific and contains China from pursuing by force the CCP’s ambitions.

In the words of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., it is time to “accelerate change” and revisit and revise our current second-best course of action. 

The Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) would be a good place to start for a tough-minded scrub focused on the weapons and capabilities most needed to contain China. It’s a budget battle no one wants, but one which our Air Force must fight.

Col. Leonard “Lucky” Ekman, USAF (Ret.) was a fighter and Wild Weasel pilot who flew three tours in Vietnam, including 1,066 combat hours in the F-105. In between Vietnam tours, he was an Olmsted Scholar in Geneva from 1969-71. He spent his last decade in uniform as a pol-mil officer. 

Large-Scale Tanker Flyovers Celebrate 100th Anniversary of First Air Refueling

Large-Scale Tanker Flyovers Celebrate 100th Anniversary of First Air Refueling

While U.S. Air Force’s jets and bombers are the nation’s fight-tonight force, aerial refueling before and after those forces go into the fight is often the key to those missions.

On the 100th anniversary of the first aerial refueling mission, the Air Force sought to highlight the behind-the-scenes efforts of some of its most essential planes with Operation Centennial Contact. More than 150 tankers from 26 installations were involved in large-scale flyovers across the country.

All 50 states were originally slated to have flyovers, but weather conditions forced some units to adjust their flight paths and schedules.

Air Mobility Command’s tankers allow sorties to go on at length with limited interruption—from fighter combat air patrols and intercontinental bomber missions to keeping the E-4B “Doomsday Plane” in the skies.

“Today’s U.S. Air Force air refueling capabilities deliver unrivaled rapid global reach for U.S. forces and our Allies and partners throughout the globe,” Air Mobility Command said in a news release. “Aerial refueling serves as a force multiplier, increasing the speed, range, lethality, flexibility, and versatility of combat aircraft.”

According to the Air Force, the first aerial refueling occurred on June 27, 1923, with aviators from the Army Air Service, the Air Force’s predecessor.

“On that day, 1st Lt. Virgil Hine and 1st Lt. Frank W. Seifert, flying a DH-4B, passed gasoline through a gravity hose to another DH-4B piloted by Capt. Lowell H. Smith and 1st Lt. John P. Richter, accomplishing the first aerial refueling,” the AMC release stated.

To highlight what has turned from an experiment into something that is now a “critical capability” to the Department of Defense’s operations, Air Mobility Command had its fleet of tankers—from the 1950s-era KC-135 Stratotankers to KC-10 Extenders and the newest KC-46 Pegasus showcase their mission. The participating units were extensive, according to an AMC spokesperson:

  • 97th Air Mobility Wing (Altus Air Force Base, Okla)
  • 459th Air Refueling Wing (Joint Base Andrews, Md.)
  • 101st Air Refueling Wing (Bangor Air National Guard Base, Maine.)
  • 117th Air Refueling Wing (Sumpter Smith Joint National Guard Base, Birmingham, Ala.)
  • 168th Wing (Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska)
  • 92nd Air Refueling Wing (Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash.)
  • 190th Air Refueling Wing (Forbes Air National Guard Base, Kan.)
  • 434th Air Refueling Wing (Grissom Air Reserve Base, Ind.)
  • 154th Air Refueling Wing (Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii)
  • 155th Air Refueling Wing (Lincoln Air National Guard Base, Neb.)
  • 189 Air Refueling Wing (Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark.)
  • 6th Air Refueling Wing (MacDill Air Force Base, Fla.)
  • 452nd Air Mobility Wing (March Air Reserve Base, Calif.) 
  • 22nd Air Refueling Wing (McConnell Air Force Base, Kan)
  • 134th Air Refueling Wing (McGhee Tyson Air National Guard Base, Tenn.)
  • 305 Air Mobility Wing (Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J.)
  • 60th Air Mobility Wing (Travis Air Force Base, Texas)
  • 186th Air Refueling Wing (Key Field, Miss.)
  • 128 Air Refueling Wing (General Mitchell Air National Guard Base, Wis.)
  • 151th Air Refueling Wing (Roland R. Wright Air National Guard Base, Utah.)

“Air refueling propels our Nation’s air power across the skies, unleashing its full potential,“ Air Mobility Command boss Gen. Mike Minihan said in a news release. “It connects our strategic vision with operational reality, ensuring we can reach any corner of the globe with unwavering speed and precision.”

The Air Force is hoping to rethink aerial refueling yet again, with a next-generation air refueling system (NGAS) and more KC-46s replacing KC-135s that entered the fleet closer to that first aerial refueling than today. While flying some of the Air Force’s aging refueling aircraft over the skies of the U.S., the AMC also wanted to show why it needs to plan for the future and recapitalize the tanker fleet to “remain relevant in the current and future security environments,” the command said.

Northrop Tests Navigation System for Contested Airspace That Will Go on F-22

Northrop Tests Navigation System for Contested Airspace That Will Go on F-22

Northrop Grumman revealed June 27 that it has successfully tested an advanced air navigation system to allow aircraft to operate in contested, GPS-jammed or -denied airspace. The system will be deployed on Air Force F-22 fighters and Navy E-2D Hawkeye airborne warning and control aircraft, with other platforms to follow.

The system, called EGI-M for Embedded GPS Inertial Navigation System Modernization, was tested in May aboard a Cessna Citation 560 test aircraft. The flight marked the first time the system has been tested with an M-code-capable receiver.

M-code is a jam-resistant GPS signal that can be beamed at target areas from GPS Block III satellites using their high-gain directional antennae. The signals are more powerfully focused, and thus less susceptible to jamming, than general GPS signals, which broadcast over a wide geographical area. M-Code also allows blue force tracking systems to continue to follow U.S. military signals even when general GPS is being jammed in an area. The M-code signals are also encrypted to further reduce the chance of spoofing.

When fully operational, the EGI-M system “will feature a modular platform interface, designed to easily integrate with current platform navigation systems, supporting advanced software and hardware technology updates now and in the future,” a release from Northrop stated.

Precise navigation is critical both for avoiding known threats and putting ordnance on target at a specific time. Adversary airspace is expected to be GPS-jammed, so advanced navigation systems rely on several methods—GPS, inertial navigation, timing, and other, classified techniques, to ascertain precise location.

Northrop’s EGI-M prototype, dubbed the LN-351 system, uses GPS/INS with fiber optic gyro technology and performed at the same level of the LN-251, Northrop’s current GPS navigation system, but with the added M-code capability. Northrop began engineering and manufacturing development of EGI-M in 2018, and critical design review was completed in September 2020.  The system has been selected for use with “additional fixed-wing and rotary-wing platforms” across the U.S. military services and allied forces, Northrop said.

The EGI-M is an open-architecture system, which will allow insertion of third-party technology without compromising the system’s cyber security and airworthiness, according to Northrop’s website.

“This flight test is a major step forward in developing our next generation airborne navigation system,” Ryan Arrington, vice president of navigation and cockpit systems at Northrop, said in a statement.