Northrop Has to Fly the B-21 to Get the LRIP Contract, Which Will Have ‘Zero Profit’

Oct. 26, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Northrop Grumman’s low-rate initial production contract for the B-21 bomber will only come after first flight, senior company officials confirmed on their third quarter earnings call, but they are confident the event will happen by the end of this year.

“First flight is a milestone that the Air Force is looking to achieve before they make that award,” Northrop chief executive officer Kathy Warden said Oct. 26.

“The first LRIP contracts will be awarded in the fourth quarter,” added Dave Keffer, Northrop’s executive vice president and chief financial officer. “That’s consistent with our expectations that we’ve described throughout the year, and reliant on first flight occurring between now and that contract award.

Keffer also said Northrop continues to “evaluate our performance and our outlook on the LRIP phase of the program each quarter. We did not make any significant changes to our estimates for that phase during the third quarter.”

The Air Force confirmed this week that the first B-21 has begun taxi tests at Northrop’s facilities at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif. Taxi tests are the last phase of preparation before first flight, but the Northrop executives did not hazard a guess about when that will take place. The B-21 rolled out of the Palmdale facility last December, an event driven by the fact that the secret aircraft would soon be conducting outdoor engine runs and taxi tests and could potentially be seen from nearby public land.

Warden also reiterated that Northrop won’t make any money on the B-21 in the LRIP phase, due to higher labor costs and inflation on the fixed-price contract.

“As we’ve consistently said, through the year, we are planning at a zero profitability,” she said. “But we have to perform and we are working hard to ensure” that the company hits its contractual marks. The B-21 will likely become profitable when it reaches full rate production, she has said in previous calls.

Keffer said he doesn’t expect that a continuing resolution will prevent an LRIP contract from being awarded, due to prior-year funding.

Asked whether the White House’s emergency supplemental request for $2.6 billion for classified Air Force programs affects the B-21, Warden said she could not comment.

“I will simply say we do continue to work with the Air Force on ensuring that we have the resources necessary to make the B-21 program successful,” she added. “We are progressing through ground testing and we’re on track to enter flight testing this year in line with the program baseline schedule.”

Munitions and Missiles

Warden said Northrop is seeing “growing demand” for its munitions, particularly the Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile—Extended Range (AARGM-ER), which is the Air Force and Navy’s successor to the AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missile.

“We’ve now received interest from more than a dozen countries, and just this week, the opportunity for a Foreign Military Sale to Finland was announced,” Warden said.

She also noted that in September, Northrop won a $705 million contract to develop the Stand-in Attack Weapon (SiAW) for the Air Force. The SiAW is “an air to ground weapon with the capability to strike mobile defense targets,” she said. “Our SiAW offering builds on the capabilities we provide with our high-speed AARGM missile, which is in production. Building off a mature product baseline, we’re able to reduce the developmental time, cost and risk to the SiAW program.”

She added that SiAW is “expected to be the air-to-ground weapon of choice for the F-35 and other fighters.”

Northrop felt comfortable bidding the fixed-price SiAW because both AARGM and SiAW “are building off of a mature technical baseline,” she said. Major primes are increasingly shying away from fixed-price contracts due to inflation and overruns that companies don’t want to absorb. L3Harris, for example, did not bid on SiAW, saying it was due to the fixed-price nature of the program.

“I have often said, fixed price is appropriate where it’s either a commercial item or an item that has reached a design maturity and been reduced to where we know what it will take to deliver that product,” Warden said.

“Because of the maturity of AARGM, and having a product line that met the Air Force requirements for SiAW … we are able to reduce cost [and] schedule, and of course, have better risk management. That allows us to have the risk tolerance to bid fixed price,” Warden added.

Warden previously has said Northrop will not pursue the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, suggesting that fixed-price elements played in that decision.

“In competition, there are many factors, but when a company has invested, and gotten the mature product line, there is a natural advantage that comes with that,” she said. “And that’s the situation we found ourselves in with SiAW.”

Air Force Suicides Go Up in 2022, But Still Below 2019-2020 Totals

Oct. 26, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The total number and rate of Airmen who died by suicide jumped in 2022 compared to 2021, though both figures are still below the high rates the service saw in the years prior, according to the Defense Department’s annual Report on Suicide in the Military released Oct. 26.

All told, the Active-Duty Air Force tracked 64 deaths by suicide in 2022, for a rate of 19.7 per 100,000 Airmen. That’s compared to 51 total and a rate of 15.3 in 2021. All told, the Air Force had the lowest recorded Active-Duty suicide rate among the services.

By comparison, the Air Force had 81 suicides in 2020 and 82 in 2019, both times second most among the services. The rates in those years were above 24 per 100,000 service members.

The Space Force, for the first time, recorded its own data separate from the Air Force—no Guardians died by suicide. The Air Force Reserve saw an increase in total numbers from six to 14, while the Air National Guard had the same number as 2021—15.

Across the entire DOD, there were 331 suicides among Active-Duty service members, 64 in the Reserve, and 97 in the Guard—492 total. The rate among the Active-Duty declined slightly, although the overall trend since 2011 remains upward. The Guard and Reserve are also slightly down year-over-year, but their trends are more mixed and the report notes lower statistical significance in their findings.

The rate of military suicides remains comparable to the general public. Young, enlisted men continue to be the most at-risk for suicide.

“Even one suicide is too many,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement. “We have much more work to do to reduce suicide across our force, and owe it to our service members and our military families to provide the best possible care; to identify risk factors and spot warning signs; and to eliminate the tired old stigmas around seeking help.”

In March, Austin announced new steps in a multiphase plan to improve mental health and suicide prevention in the military, outlining 10 steps the Pentagon would take at the recommendation of an independent review committee. In September, he followed that up with a broader plan to implement dozens more of those recommendations, broken down across five lines of effort:

Foster a Supportive Environment

Improve the Delivery of Mental Health Care

Address Stigma and Other Barriers to Care

Revise Suicide Prevention Training

Promote a Culture of Lethal Means Safety

However, Austin declined to take action on some recommendations, several related to more closely regulating firearm purchases by service members on DOD property and others aimed at quality-of-life issues like housing.

While the DOD works on some issues, the Air Force is also taking steps. On Aug. 30, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass highlighted efforts such as centralizing support services, making resiliency training part of the leadership development program, and establishing “integrated wellness teams” at bases.

Bass also promised that more efforts would be revealed soon. She helps lead the Department of the Air Force’s “Fortify the Force” initiative, a team of 50-60 leaders and experts tackling barriers to Airmen and Guardians seeking help with mental health, wellness, and resilience. The panel has received more than 300 suggestions so far.

The department is also seeking to better understand the suicides that do take place to inform their efforts. Through a first-of-its-kind suicide analysis board, the DAF is partnering with researchers to pull information from personnel records, investigation reports, medical records, and Department of Defense Suicide Event Reports (DoDSER) and compile over 1,000 data points for each person who died by suicide. That report was due this spring, though the results were not publicly released.

Service members and veterans who are in crisis or having thoughts of suicide, and those who know a service member or veteran in crisis, can call the Veterans/Military Crisis Line for confidential support available 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. Call 988 and press 1; text 988; or chat online at VeteransCrisisLine.net/Chat.

Space Force Solidifies New JTAGS Mission With Stand-Up of Squadron and Detachment

Oct. 26, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The Space Force has taken key steps in recent weeks to build out its new Joint Tactical Ground Station mission, after officially assuming control of the missile warning system from the Army on Oct. 1.

The 5th Space Warning Squadron reactivated under Space Delta 4 at Buckley Space Force Base, Colo. on Oct. 13, taking responsibility for JTAGS. On Oct. 25, the 5th SWS activated its Detachment 4 at Misawa Air Base, Japan.

The new squadron is commanded by Lt. Col. Michael A. Provencher, who gained extensive missile operations experience in both the Air Force and the Army before transitioning to the Space Force, according to a service release.

Lt. Col. Michael Provencher, 5th Space Warning Squadron commander, and his family thank attendees following the 5th Space Warning Squadron activation and assumption of command ceremony at Buckley Space Force Base, Colo. U.S. Space Force photo by Airman 1st Class Aleece Williams

Since its activation in 1999 under the Army’s 1st Space Brigade, JTAGS has aided theater missile warning operations by providing 24/7 real-time missile warning data, acquired from overhead sensors.

Japan is one of the four strategically positioned nations that host detachments, alongside Italy, Qatar and South Korea.

The JTAGS’s transition from the Army to the Space Force was first announced in January this year. The mission is now under Space Delta 4, which is responsible for operating and supporting satellites and radar systems.

Col. Ernest Schmitt, Space Delta 4 commander, highlighted the strategic significance of Delta 4 and its JTAGS mission at the 5th SWS reactivation ceremony.

“This mission coupled with the capabilities all the combat squadrons of Delta 4 bring to the fight, and the capabilities that are planned for delivery for the next few years, ensures that Delta 4 can provide the necessary warfighting capabilities that will be needed to meet adversary threats now and to the future,” said Schmitt.

The detachment in Japan will oversee active/passive defense and attack operations as part of the Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility.

“Today is important as it marks the change in mission responsibility of theater missile warning from the U.S. Army to the Space Force,” Army Capt. Gideon Bernthal, 22nd Space Company commander, said in a statement. “It has been an honor and privilege for the Army to have that mission, as the core is protecting all the joint forces on the ground from incoming missile threats.”

According to Sgt. 1st Class Andra Watson of the 22nd Space Company, the branches have been working together for this transfer throughout last year.

“The Army will continue to support the Space Force until we officially deactivate the company in April 2024,” added Watson. “At that moment, the Army will permanently change station from Misawa.”

The 5th SWS was initially established and activated in 1992 in Australia, operating as the only ground station in the Southern Hemisphere. The squadron provided global and theater early warning reporting on ballistic misses launched in the Eastern Hemisphere until it was deactivated in 1999.

U.S. Space Force Specialist 4 Joshua Henriques, 5th Space Warning Squadron (SWS) Joint Tactical Ground Station operator, and U.S. Army Specialist Jario Perez Martinez, 22nd Space Company, perform satellite checks at Misawa Air Base, Japan, Oct. 5, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Patrick Boyle

INDOPACOM: Chinese Fighter Comes 10 Feet from B-52 in ‘Unsafe’ Nighttime Intercept

Oct. 26, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

A Chinese fighter jet closed within 10 feet of a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber in a nighttime intercept over the South China Sea on Oct. 24 that U.S. Indo-Pacific Command deemed “unsafe and unprofessional.”

The incident marks the latest close call between Chinese and U.S. aircraft in the region. The Pentagon recently claimed in its annual China Military Power Report that there have been 180 instances of “coercive and risky behavior” between the fall of 2021 and fall of 2023, more than all of the previous decade combined. The Defense Department also released images and videos of 15 such incidents.

The Oct. 24 encounter stands out, however, as it is the first time INDOPACOM or the Pentagon have noted an unsafe intercept of a U.S. bomber, and because it occurred at night. A video released on social media seemingly shows the J-11 fighter approaching and momentarily disappearing behind the B-52 before reemerging.

Courtesy video, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

“The PRC pilot flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner, demonstrated poor airmanship by closing with uncontrolled excessive speed, flying below, in front of, and within 10 feet of the B-52, putting both aircraft in danger of collision,” INDOPACOM said in a release. “We are concerned this pilot was unaware of how close he came to causing a collision. The PRC intercept was conducted at night, with limited visibility, in a manner contrary to international air safety rules and norms.”

In previous instances, the Pentagon has highlighted aggressive, unprofessional behavior by Chinese pilots, including the use of explicit language when contacted over radio by U.S. crews, obscene gestures, and aircraft “flashing their weapons.”

There have been a few occasions DOD has noted a Chinese fighter closing within 10 feet of a U.S. aircraft.

The Air Force currently has multiple B-52 bombers in the region as part of a Bomber Task Force rotation. One Stratofortress made a rare landing on the Korean Peninsula and participated in the first ever trilateral air exercise with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. The bombers, from Barksdale Air Force Base, La., are operating from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, for their deployment.

“The U.S will continue to fly, sail, and operate—safely and responsibly—wherever international laws allow,” INDOPACOM stated in a release. “The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Joint Force remains dedicated to a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and we expect all countries in the Indo-Pacific to operate in international airspace safely and in accordance with international law.”

New Charge Pushes Boeing’s Air Force One Losses to $1.3 Billion

Oct. 25, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Boeing is taking a $482 million loss on its VC-25B/Air Force One program to build two new Presidential transports, company executives reported in their third quarter earnings call Oct. 25. Combined with previous charges of $660 million against the program, Boeing’s cumulative losses on VC-25B now total $1.3 billion.

Separately, the company’s defense and space unit took a $350 million loss on an unnamed satellite program, and a $136 million charge on its MQ-25 refueling drone for the Navy. Along with the $482 million loss on VC-25B, Boeing’s defense programs were in the red to the tune of $1.02 billion in the third quarter.

No charges were announced on the T-7 trainer or KC-46 tanker, where Boeing has taken serious financial hits in recent years. Boeing has eaten more than $7 billion in losses on the KC-46.

Boeing president and CEO David Calhoun said the losses mostly affect defense programs under fixed-price contracts, where Boeing must make up any overages on its own dime. Other factors hitting the programs he cited were the effects of inflation and supply-chain issues, as well as engineering changes and labor shortages.

“In a fixed-price environment, any unplanned hurdles can introduce unrecoverable costs,” Calhoun said of the VC-25B. Boeing is “getting past these hurdles” and is “committed to delivering two exceptional airplanes for our customers.”

Boeing fired its vendor for the VC-25B program’s interior, GDC Technics, in 2021, complaining that it was late in delivering work, disrupting the whole project. The company countersued that Boeing’s own financial difficulties and engineering were to blame, but the debacle put the program at least two years behind schedule.

“We are maturing through this build process,” Calhoun said of the VC-25B, “incorporating engineering changes to better support the installation process. And we resolved important supplier negotiations over the course of the quarter.” He noted that “none of these items will impact the performance and capability of the end product.”

Brian West, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said the VC-25B charge was “due to higher estimated manufacturing costs, related engineering changes, labor instability and the resolution of supplier negotiations.”

On the satellite, Calhoun said “we’re expecting higher costs … as we build out the constellation and meet our life cycle commitments for our customer. We’re working on real innovation and advanced capabilities in this space and see real potential market as we deliver against this commitment.”

He said there are “signs of progress” in getting Boeing Defense and Space back to profitability but “financial improvement at BDS’ lower volumes takes time.” Getting margins back to where the company expects them will happen by 2025 or 2026, he added.

To improve, the company is “driving Lean Manufacturing Program Management rigor and cost productivity consistently across the division,” West said. “We’ve invested in new training programs to accelerate performance on the factory floor and we deployed resources at our suppliers to support their recovery. Perhaps most importantly, we instituted much tighter underwriting standards,” and the company is working to deal with “our legacy contracts that we need to get out from under.”

“Rest assured, we haven’t signed any fixed-price development contracts, nor [do we] intend to,” West said. “These moves are all fundamental to accelerating the recovery by the ’25-‘26 timeframe.”

The “large, fixed-price development programs” like the KC-46 represent 15 percent of BDS’ portfolio, West added.

“We continue to be focused on maturing and retiring these risks; specifically, in the KC-46.” He said “we’re stabilizing the production system. We’ve seen signs of progress and improved productivity and as of this month, we have delivered 77 tankers to the customer.”

Calhoun said he is not surprised that Airbus has opted to continue offering the A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport after Lockheed Martin withdrew from the so-called “bridge tanker” program this week, killing its LMXT joint venture with Airbus.

“We shouldn’t expect them to, sort of, vacate,” he said, adding, “We are not afraid of competition.”

But Calhoun also admitted that the next contract for the KC-46 “matters a lot. We have to ultimately underwrite the costs and get this right, and as we’ve committed to you all along, we’re going to stay disciplined on that front,” meaning that Boeing won’t lowball its offer on the bridge tanker.

How Air Force Generals Avoid ‘Awkward First Dates’ With Foreign Leaders

Oct. 25, 2023 | By David Roza

It was July 2023, and Brig. Gen. Paul Moga had a lot on his plate. The one-star had just moved to Ramstein Air Base, Germany, for his new role as chief of staff at Headquarters U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, a command that oversees 104 countries, a vast range of cultures, and a complicated history stretching back centuries.

As a general officer, Moga had to be ready to discuss sensitive security issues with key military and civic leaders—meetings where a faux pas or a lack of historical context could delay progress or upset partners.

“It’s helpful to know, when you’re in a room with 18 air chiefs from across Africa, which ones may be more inclined to work with one another just based on history,” the general told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “If you have that knowledge in the back of your brain, you can be more observant and be more focused on how you choose to have bilateral or multilateral conversations with either current or emerging partners.”

Moga had served on the staff of U.S. European Command before, but Africa would be a new experience for him, and there was not much time to prepare. Luckily, the Air Force has a unique program for readying general officers so they can engage foreign dignitaries with minimal turbulence. The General Officer Pre-assignment Acculturation Course (GOPAC), run by Air University’s Air Force Culture and Language Center, links generals with professors, ambassadors, or other subject matter experts who lead a discussion-style master class on the most important topics their star-shouldered students need to know about their assigned region.

“I read classified briefings all the time and I’m very familiar with how the military communicates and what the military focuses on,” Moga said. “But they brought such a different perspective with regards to historical context, relationships between countries or regions, how it all ties together into the present day, and where they think these regions are headed.”

The discussions were not death-by-PowerPoint or overly academic. Indeed, the subject matter experts tailored the course for Moga after meeting previously with him and his predecessor to determine what were the most important topics for the job. They then divided the two-day long course into several sections and met whenever the general’s schedule permitted.

“What I found with many allies or partner nations is that the little things really do matter,” Moga said. “You might say something that you don’t think means a whole lot, but it could potentially be extraordinarily offensive, so the more context you have on every partner and every ally, the stronger that relationship will be.”

air force general — U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, left, Ninth Air Force (Air Forces Central) commander, meets with Maj. Gen. Bandar Salem Al-Muzayan, right, acting Kuwait Air Force command chief, at the Kuwait Air Force Headquarters, Aug. 17, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Dominic Tyler)

Culture as the Operating System

GOPAC started in 2010, when the counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan showed that the U.S. military needed to better understand its partners and adversaries in the region. Among the first participants were then-Brig. Gen. John Raymond, who later became the first Chief of Space Operations, then-Brig. Gen. David Allvin, who is now the acting Air Force Chief of Staff, and then-Brig. Gen. Tod Wolters, who later became NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

“The success of a lot of those missions depended on the ability to integrate and work with the host nation,” said Howard Ward, the director of AFCLC and a retired Air Force colonel. “Those same principles endure today.”

The original in-person program produced three or four graduates a year focusing on U.S. Central Command. But GOPAC took off during the COVID-19 pandemic, when AFCLC began offering virtual classes.

“We didn’t anticipate how much that would increase our reach,” Ward said. “Now instead of one-star students, we started to pick up two- and even three-stars because we could be more flexible with scheduling.”

The program now covers every combatant command region and has produced 15 graduates so far this year. Historical context is a frequent must-learn, but so are cultural differences about behaviors such as humor, gift-giving, and etiquette.

“We refer to culture here as the operating system of humans,” Ward said. “To understand how that person is going to render decisions and on what kind of timeline, you have to understand how the operating system works.”

Those differences can quickly become apparent in meetings with key leaders. For example, self-deprecating humor is connected with humility in American culture, but other cultures may express humility differently and see such humor as self-defeating. Gift-giving is another example.

“We might say, ‘Oh, it was nothing’ to communicate that there is not an expectation for reciprocity, but if the recipient takes the statement at face-value, they might say, ‘Well gosh, why are you giving me something that’s not worth any value?’” Ward said. “That can have exactly the opposite effect.

“Those types of things transcend the traditional political-military discussions of what the issues are,” he added. “These are the issues behind the people involved in the issues.”

Expanding Horizons

Moga is not the only one praising GOPAC. The head of U.S. Space Force Indo-Pacific Command, Brig. Gen. Anthony Mastalir, said in a statement that the course provided “an a-ha moment in understanding the relationship with the Philippines.”

Brig. Gen. David Mineau, the deputy commander of Air Forces Central, said that most senior leaders are keyed in to the leading issues in their upcoming area of responsibility, but “there are always blind spots,” and GOPAC helped him “pick up nuances from every corner and reflect on the historical, political, and cultural dynamics at play.”

Ward has heard other participants make comments like “I can’t imagine doing the job without this course” and “the first key leader engagement would have been an awkward first date that might not have gotten to a second date.”

Besides general officers, a few colonels, senior enlisted leaders, and spouses moving overseas have also participated. GOPAC is the only program of its kind in the Department of Defense, and one of its graduates is Marine Maj. Gen. Robert Sofge. Not many leaders from other services have expressed interest yet, and GOPAC is reaching max capacity under its current student load, Ward said. Still, program organizers hope to find even better and more efficient ways of doing business during a review this December, which may unlock opportunities for growth.

“The truly strategic value is when our partners and allies see how much time, money, and effort we invest in being able to engage successfully with them,” Ward said.

PACAF Leaders Visit South Korea Bases and Talk Readiness

Oct. 25, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Pacific Air Forces leaders conducted readiness inspections and spoke about quality of life concerns with Airmen during a sweep of the U.S. Air Force’s two bases in South Korea last week.

PACAF commander Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach and PACAF command chief Chief Master Sgt. David Wolfe stopped by Osan and Kunsan air bases on Oct. 19 and 20, emphasizing the enduring U.S. commitment to the region.

“We are here in Korea to stay,” Wilsbach said while visiting the 51st Fighter Wing at Osan base, according to a release.

Both South Korean bases are strategically located near North Korea, China, and Russia, making their responsiveness essential for the broader Indo-Pacific region’s stability.

“While the Wolf Pack’s main objective is to defend this country [Republic of Korea], I want to also emphasize that Kunsan’s readiness has a larger impact on the actions of these nations in the broader region,” said Wilsbach, while meeting with Airmen at the 8th Fighter Wing.

The command team discussed PACAF priorities, assessed readiness, and reviewed long-term infrastructure strategies during their visit.

Wilsbach and Wolfe’s tour of Korean bases came in conjunction with a visit to the Seoul Air and Defense Expo, which showcased a wide range of USAF aircraft including the B-52, F-22s, and F-16s.

Earlier this week, the U.S., ROK, and Japan conducted their first-ever trilateral aerial exercise on Oct. 22. A U.S. B-52H Stratofortress was escorted by fighter aircraft from all three nations.

North Korea has condemned the presence of B-52s in the peninsula through its state-controlled KCNA media.

While Wilsbach emphasized the importance of the Air Force’s presence in Korea, acting undersecretary of defense for policy Mara Karlin also highlighted the significance of the U.S.’s close collaboration with South Korea and Japan to address the growing threat from North Korea effectively.

“We’ve got these persistent threats that exist and that are probably going to worsen,” Karlin said at a Brookings event on Oct. 24. “So we’ve got to really understand how to monitor and respond to those threats, and to do so in a way that really involves working closely with allies and partners.”

Pyongyang’s most recent provocation was the launch of two short-range ballistic missiles ahead of a bilateral summit between Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Sept. 13, according to South Korean military officials.

In April, Washington and Seoul established the Nuclear Consultative Group through the “Washington Declaration” to reinforce a unified approach to regional security while promoting dialogue and diplomacy with North Korea for denuclearization.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan highlighted the Biden administration’s commitment to bolster extended deterrence in response to Pyongyang’s threats.

“In the face of North Korea’s dangerous and illicit nuclear and missile programs, we are working to ensure that the United States’ extended deterrence is stronger than ever so that the region remains peaceful and stable,” Sulivan wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs, published Oct. 24.

“That is why we concluded the Washington Declaration with South Korea and why we’re advancing extended trilateral deterrence discussions with Japan, as well.”

Recent reports have suggested Hamas utilized North Korean-made munitions in their attack. As a result, observers have expressed concerns regarding the potential for Pyongyang’s engagement with militant groups in the Middle East, and the possibility of North Korea emulating Hamas’ attacks within the peninsula.

Bruce Bennett, international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, suggested in a recent commentary that while it is unlikely that leader Kim Jong Un would resort to a full-scale attack similar to Hamas, he does share the goal of discouraging U.S. military involvement in the region.

B-21 Begins Taxi Tests in Last Step Before First Flight

Oct. 25, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The first B-21 Raider has begun taxi tests, in preparation for a first flight by the end of the year, the Air Force confirmed Oct. 25.

The B-21 “is conducting ground taxi activities,” an Air Force spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine in response to a query. The War Zone first reported the development.

“Rigorous testing is a critical step in the B-21 flight test program,” she said. “Extensive testing evaluates systems, components, and functionalities. This testing allows us to mitigate risks, optimize design, and enhance operational effectiveness.”

The spokesperson had no other details to offer and said no photography is planned by the Air Force at this point.

The most recent photos of the first B-21 at Northrop Grumman’s facility at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif., showed the aircraft outside its hangar, presumably for outside engine runs, but the labyrinth of buildings at the plant make it possible for the aircraft to be outside and not visible from local roadways.

Social media sites that monitor Plant 42—where Lockheed Martin and Boeing also have facilities and where novel aircraft and modifications often show up unexpectedly—have been buzzing about “something moving” at Northrop’s end of the plant for two days.

Taxi tests indicate the airplane has already conducted a series of outdoor engine runs. A taxi test campaign typically follows a pattern wherein ground-handling qualities are tested and evaluated at slow and medium speeds before high-speed tests, which are the direct precursor to first flight.

In July, Northrop Grumman officials disclosed the B-21 had accomplished its first “power on” test. In September, Air Force Global Strike Command boss Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere announced the bomber has begun engine runs as part of its ground testing program.

Especially with a large flying wing like the B-21, high-speed taxi tests could inadvertently lead to a first flight. When the YF-16 was making a high-speed taxi test in January 1974, the eager aircraft made an unplanned takeoff.

Air Force officials have said they do not plan to make a media event out of first flight, insisting the bomber will fly as soon as it is ready to do so.

The B-21 was originally expected to fly in 2022 but did not roll out until December of last year, and first flight was then projected for the middle of 2023. In March, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the airplane will fly “by the end of 2023,” but service officials have insisted the event will be driven by technical readiness and not the calendar.

The B-2—the B-21’s predecessor—flew nine months after its rollout in 1988.

The aircraft now taxiing is one of six known to be in some stage of production, and has been described as production-representative. The B-21s are being built on production tooling, and the first examples shouldn’t be considered prototypes, Northrop Grumman aeronautics president Tom Jones said at AFA’s Air, Space and Cyber conference in September.

“The jet that’s going to fly this year, for all intents and purposes, is a production jet,” Jones said during a B-21 panel discussion. “It’s got all the coatings, it’s got the mission systems, it was built using factory processes … with regular workers, by regular factory technicians, not engineers doing a bespoke first article.”

While the first one to fly will be a “flight sciences” aircraft—meaning it has been instrumented to collect data on all aspects of the aircraft’s performances—the B-21 contract calls for configuring all test aircraft as operational models after testing is concluded.

Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden, in a company quarterly earnings call in January, told reporters she expects the contract for low-rate initial production this year, but after first flight. At the second-quarter call, she reported that the first B-21 had completed its first “power on” test, paving the way for engine runs and taxi.

In both calls, Warden cautioned that the fixed-price nature of the LRIP contract, coupled with the inflation of recent years, means there won’t be any profit on the program during that phase, but that Northrop expected to receive a $60 million payment from the Air Force to mitigate inflation and smooth the way toward first flight.

Northrop’s third quarter earnings call is scheduled for Oct. 26

Ukrainian Pilots Start Training on the F-16 in Arizona

Oct. 25, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. has begun training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s, the U.S. Air Force announced Oct. 25.

A “small number” of Ukrainian pilots began training with the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard earlier this week in “F-16 fundamentals,” according to a service spokesperson.

“The training curriculum will align with the foundational knowledge and skills of each pilot and is expected to last several months,” a U.S. Air Force spokesperson said in a statement provided to Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The 162nd Wing trains pilots at Morris Air National Guard Base, which is located at Tucson International Airport. It is the only unit in the U.S. Air Force tasked with training foreign pilots on F-16s as part of its day-to-day mission. The wing has trained over two dozen countries in how to operate the F-16.

“They’re very intimately familiar on how we do training of foreign military pilots,” Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, the director of the Air National Guard, said in September.

A typical F-16 training course takes around six months. However, U.S. officials have indicated Ukrainian pilots are unlikely to follow a standard model as the course will be suited to Ukraine’s need to protect its skies from Russian aircraft, drones, and missiles. European nations are also training Ukrainian pilots in how to operate the F-16.

Training of F-16 pilots typically includes significant classroom and simulator time in addition to training in the air. Foreign F-16 pilots also have to undergo English language training, which Ukrainians began last month at Lackland Air Force Base, Texas.

“For Ukraine, it is going to be tailored for exactly what they need to do, which is multirole, both air-to-air and air-to-ground,” Loh said. “We will train them to do the full multirole spectrum of what we can expect in their theory of conflict.”

Ukrainian pilots are not expected to start flying F-16s in combat until 2024. European nations have pledged to provide Ukraine with used F-16s. The U.S. has committed to training some pilots and maintainers to supplement the coalition of countries working to provide Ukraine with F-16s.

Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, said in an interview in September that “up to about 10 pilots” would be trained by the U.S. The Pentagon has said the U.S. will also train “dozens” of maintainers, though the U.S. has not revealed whether that training has begun.

“One of the reasons why the F-16 is such a good match for the Ukrainian Air Force is because of the multiple roles that it can conduct,” said retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, a former fighter pilot and dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “It can perform air-to-air combat, which is a role that is critical in providing air defense for the cities and military areas that require protection from Russian attack in Ukraine.”

The F-16 can also be used to employ air-to-surface weapons and to suppress enemy air defenses. Such capabilities would enhance Ukraine’s ability to retake its territory by providing capabilities that ground forces alone cannot, Deptula said.

“What the F-16 does allows the Ukrainians to leverage multi-domain operations in a way that they simply don’t have the ability to do today,” he added.

Though the U.S. has not pledged to provide any American-owned F-16s, transferring the stalwart multirole fighter—around 3,000 of which are in service around the world—requires approval by the American government to be given to Ukraine, which the Biden administration signaled it would sign off on in the summer.

The training by the 162nd Wing “follows President Biden and Secretary Austin’s decision to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s as part of the United States’ contribution to Ukraine,” the Air Force spokesperson said.