What’s an Attack? In Iraq and Syria, That’s Not Always Clear

Nov. 7, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

U.S. forces continue to come under attack from Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, with “conservative” estimates of at least 40 attacks, mostly with drones and rockets, since Oct. 17. But U.S. leaders are fuzzy on what constitutes an attack on U.S. forces.

“I think part of the challenge here—and I know that you all wrestle with this as well—is defining an attack,” acknowledged Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder at a Nov. 2 press briefing. “It’s going to be an art, not a science, depending on a situation.”

The Pentagon calls its measure “conservative,” meaning it measures only those attacks in which U.S. personnel were “threatened.” The proximity to U.S. forces to an attack is one basic indicator, but it is not clear how close attacks must be to constitute a threat. Most attacks are defeated by air defense systems.

The Pentagon, U.S. Central Command, and Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, which is charged with helping partner forces in Iraq and Syria fight against ISIS, are all involved in the calculus, according to U.S. officials.

Outside experts and claims by militias suggest the number of attacks may be greater than the Pentagon is acknowledging. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, an umbrella title for multiple militias, claims it has carried out almost 60 attacks.

“Official claims of responsibility from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq are—in my experience—reliable indicators that an attack was launched,” said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute.

Lister added that a likely explanation for the lower U.S. government number is due to attacks that land further afield from the U.S. forces.

What is not in dispute is that the threats against U.S. forces grew dramatically in the past month, with some causing injuries and one resulting in the death of a contractor, who suffered a heart attack while sheltering in place. In all, the Pentagon assesses there have now been 46 injuries to U.S. personnel, almost all of which occurred on Oct. 17 and Oct. 18 at Al Asad airbase in Iraq and Al Tanf Garrison in Syria. They suffered a mix of traumatic brain injuries (TBI) and “minor injuries.”

Among the wounded, virtually all quickly returned to duty. Two of those diagnosed with TBI were later transported to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, Germany, for “further examination and care,” according to Ryder.

Before Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the Israeli military’s forceful response that followed, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria had been attacked about 80 times by Iranian-aligned militias since the start of the Biden Administration. Not one of those took place in Iraq for at least the past year. Now, however, the militias are making repeated attacks in Iraq and have executed scores of strikes overall.

Some of those have been close calls. The Wall Street Journal reported that one drone landed on top of a barracks in Iraq but failed to explode. At Al Asad, a hanger was destroyed and, with it, a small aircraft inside, according to a U.S. military official.

Spc. Jeremy Pratt, an unmanned aerial system repairer from Company D, 10th Aviation Regiment, 10th Mountain Division, guides an MQ-1C Gray Eagle Unmanned Aerial System into position following the completion of a mission at Al Asad Air Base, Iraq, August 1, 2017. U.S. Army photo by Capt. Stephen James

Air Force F-15E and F-16 jets carried out retaliatory airstrikes on Oct. 26, hitting sites linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). But the Biden administration has not struck back since, noting that little harm has been done to American troops and personnel.

“While we see these attacks increase, we’re not seeing significant casualties or significant harm to our service members,” said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh on Nov. 7.

Complicating the tallying of attacks is the possibility that some attacks may not have been intended for U.S. targets, but rather at the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S. partner in the fight against Islamic State militants, according to an analysis from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Militia estimates may be inflated, as well. Whether the groups are merely trying to harass U.S. forces or are attempting to inflict serious casualties can be a complex undertaking. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute notes that even “performative attacks” can be dangerous because some militias’ rockets are inaccurate and could pose a threat to U.S. forces even if the group intends to miss.

“For me, it’s about intent,” said Knights. “It’s about the fact that they’re risking hitting and killing our troops.”

Military Growing More Distant from Most Americans, Hicks Says

Nov. 7, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

After 50 years, the All-Volunteer Force still works and is the right model, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said Nov. 7. However, to fill the ranks in a hot labor market, the Pentagon needs to expand its eligibilities and make the benefits it offers more relevant and well known.

Congress also needs to stop using the military as a political pawn and predictably fund the defense budget, she asserted, calling out Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) ongoing hold on military promotions and noting that since 2010, the Defense Department has operated for a cumulative four years under continuing resolutions.

Speaking at the Center for a New American Security to talk about the All-Volunteer Force, which took effect in 1973, Hicks said the fact that “it has lasted for 50 years and that we have built the finest force in the world is a testament to its strength, and I believe that it remains the best model for the U.S. military,”

Its success can’t be taken for granted. She said the two goals facing the creators of the AVF—“healthy civil-military relations and recruiting and retaining the force we need”—require constant attention.

Recruiting for all the services has gotten tougher in the last few years, Hicks acknowledged, attributing a good portion of that challenge to the COVID-19 pandemic, which closed schools and halted face-to-face recruiting with teens and those in their early 20s.

Add to that “the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years,” and it should come as no surprise that recruitment is not hitting targets, Hicks said, and “we’ve been hard at work recovering.”

Among the approaches are “programs and policy changes that will increase the pool of eligible candidates, from raising the maximum ages of enlistment and launching new programs that help potential recruits meet eligibility requirements; to offering a variety of incentives, such as bonuses, to recruits and recruiters, and releasing targeted ad campaigns that amplify the benefits of military service. And we continue to look for creative solutions.”

The biggest draws to military service remain educational opportunities, training, the opportunity to lead, travel, to fulfill a willingness to serve, and be part of “something bigger than your self,” Hicks said.

But along with those broad benefits, the DOD is focusing on practical benefits, Hicks said. It’s making more commissaries available, and lowering their prices, and especially working toward making childcare more available. The Defense Department provides care for more than 360,000 children already, but Hicks acknowledged that there are “long waiting lists” and that this issue is getting top-level attention.

Hicks also said the Pentagon is setting new standards for pay and allowances to keep soldiers with families out of poverty, so that minimum compensation is “150 percent of the poverty level.”

On the bright side, Hicks said, “we have been surpassing our retention goals, and we take that as a strong indicator that we’re meeting our value proposition, and that matters.”

A chronic recruiting problem is the dwindling number of Americans who have served in the military, Hicks said. Whereas in 1980, some 18 percent of Americans had served, today it is only seven percent. There is a growing deficit of veterans who can explain the benefits of military service to friends and family members, she said.

The U.S. military relies on “society’s familiarity with the military as a recruitment tool and to bridge the divide between civilians and service members and their families,” Hicks noted. Fewer and fewer eligible recruits have “direct ties” to someone who served.

That also makes it harder to maintain “healthy civil-military relations,” she said.

“We must ensure that as a society, we are familiar with the military, with military families, and what they do, and the sacrifices that they make for the nation,” Hicks asserted. While Americans’ trust in entities such as “Congress, the courts, our justice system, public schools, the press, businesses small and large, and so on has been on decline,” the military remains “one of our more trusted institutions,” she said, and both trust and recruiting is helped by ensuring “fairness, equality, and personal liberties” in the ranks.

“For our part, remaining an apolitical institution is critical to maintaining that trust and confidence, and especially in this moment in history,” Hicks insisted. It’s critical that the armed forces avoid “politicization and remain nonpartisan.” Servicemembers are “routinely trained and educated on this very issue,” she said.

Leaders should reinforce this norm and protect servicemembers “from being dragged into the political fray or being colored or affected by policy disagreements that they, by design, have no control over,” Hicks observed.

Passing the fiscal 2024 Defense Appropriations Act would go a long way toward reinforcing the idea of apolitical support of the military, she said, noting that “the clock is ticking” on the current continuing resolution, which expires Nov. 17.

“The now-routine failure to secure needed resources for defense and for the whole government erodes military trust in civilian leaders,” she said.

“We cannot afford any further delays. I can assure you that Russia and the [People’s Republic of China] are not going to slow down while we get our house in order.”

She criticized Tuberville’s months-long hold on general and flag officer promotions as “unnecessary, unprecedented, and unsafe. It’s bad for the military, it’s bad for military families, and it’s bad for America, and it needs to stop now.”

She offered appreciation for the confirmation of senior officers who have been cleared to their new jobs in recent weeks—including the Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. David W. Allvin—“but it is not enough. We need all these nominations to move forward now, and I hope that the Senate will recognize that and move swiftly to confirm the nearly 360 remaining men and women into their positions.”

Hicks said the Pentagon will continue to “amplify” the benefits of military service, promoting military-wide pay raises of more than 10 percent over two years, if the fiscal 2024 budget is approved. These raises are the highest military raises in 20 years, she said.

Hicks said the DOD is also looking at Space Force’s success in “career permeability,” which allows movement back and forth between full-time and part-time work, as a way to fill the ranks.

The Pentagon is working with the various states to ensure licensing reciprocity and similar spousal career protection so partners don’t have to abandon a career when a military family moves from one state to another. She’s also pushing for more “career intermissions,” where service members can take a leave to work with industry and return to service later; a program that only some 500 people have taken advantage of in the years it’s been available.

The Marine Corps “has not had a recruiting challenge,” Hicks noted, and the other services are looking at how that branch “selects its recruiters and rewards them” in an effort to “take what works for them out of that model.”

From the various panels commissioned to examine the recruiting issue, one recommendation was to establish a “chief talent management officer” for the DOD, “which is a best practice in other organizations and institutions. We’ve done that and he’s getting going, starting with some pilots in some key areas and trying to, again, build a community of practice both around function — what we call functional community managers.” Those communities include cyber experts and financial managers. “This is “really getting leadership focus,” she said.

The controversial policy compensating members for out-of-state travel “if they can’t get” needed healthcare reproductive nearby is one of the ways the administration is addressing that issue, Hicks said.

The good news: surveys show “strong evidence that [Generation] Z has a deep desire, like many generations before” for service and “to make sure they’re contributing to something bigger than themselves.” Gen Z is generally considered to be those born from the late 1990s to around 2010.

“We just have to make sure the military is a place both that really delivers on that and that they see us delivering on that, and that’s the job that’s left to us,” Hicks said.

Austin Heads to Indo-Pacific as Space Race Heats Up on Korean Peninsula

Nov. 7, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III embarks this weekend on his ninth trip to the Indo-Pacific theater, with visits set for India, South Korea, and Indonesia. Austin’s visit follows the announcement last week that South Korea’s first-ever reconnaissance satellite will be launched into space aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., Nov. 30.

Austin’s trip will take him, among other meetings, to the 55th U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) and the Defense Ministers’ Meeting of the United Nations Command in South Korea, the Pentagon said in a Nov. 7 release.

Seoul’s first recon satellite is one of five planned by the Republic of Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration. Known as Project 425 and begun in 2018, the $900 million program aims to include four Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites and a fifth featuring electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) capabilities.

The satellites are key to Korea’s “Kill Chain” strategy, designed to counter North Korean missile attacks through early detection and preemptive strikes. Some experts worry, however, that the two Koreas are too close and that the decision window for launching such strikes is too short, inviting error and disaster.

Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Materials Security Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said the South’s Kill Chain strategy has already forced Pyongyang to accelerate its nuclear launch procedures, increasing risk.

“The end result is that warning times for our thinking and decision-making timelines are drastically reduced, which raises the risks of nuclear use in a conflict,” Brewer said Nov. 6 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

U.S. missile restriction guidelines imposed in 1979 had kept South Korea from launching its own satellites until the U.S. lifted those restrictions in 2021. Once the entire constellation is in place in the mid-2020s, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense expects to be able to detect, identify, decide, and strike within 30 minutes of an initial indicator.

North Korea, meanwhile, is turning up the heat on its own satellite intelligence program. North Korea promised its third spy satellite launch in October, but that appears so far to not have occurred. Pyongyang previously failed in two successive launch attempts, in May and August this year.

Russia, which is buying artillery rounds from North Korea, may be helping with its space program. On Nov. 6, South Korea’s Unification Minister asserted Russia may be providing technical support, according to the Yonhap News Agency.

North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles in late summer, ahead of Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia for meetings with Vladimir Putin there on Sept. 13.

Austin’s trip to South Korea, meanwhile, continues U.S. efforts to deter aggressors in the region and strengthen U.S. alliances.

Air Force-Wide Digital WAPS Testing to Start February 2024

Nov. 7, 2023 | By David Roza

The Air Force is set to roll out its digital weighted Airman promotion system (WAPS) in February 2024, in time for the technical sergeant testing cycle. The new system, eWAPS, replaces the paper-and-pencil method, which is a headache for administrators and has often been lost in the mail. Digitizing the system has been on the to-do list for branch senior leaders for years.

“When it comes to the Force of the Future, it is essential we modernize the IT systems our Airmen use—to include how we test for promotion,” Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force JoAnne Bass told Air & Space Forces Magazine in a statement.

WAPS is a standardized test which helps the service identify Airmen worthy of promotion to the ranks of staff sergeant (E5) and technical sergeant (E6). Test-takers are quizzed on topics such as career field information, Air Force history, and customs and courtesies. In 2021, the test was modified to include situational judgment questions to assess leadership qualities.

Officials expressed frustration with the paper WAPS method, which in 2021 Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, then-deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services said was “embarrassing” and “makes all of us as senior leaders absolutely crazy.” Bass shared his opinion.

“It is 2022, if we can’t get out of taking a No. 2 pencil into promotion tests, something is wrong,” Bass said last year.

2022 came and went without digitization, which the senior leader attributed in part to not all locations having the systems in place to perform digital testing. But that appears to have changed. Bass said pilot tests were conducted across 61 bases from July to September, with more pilots scheduled through December to make sure the installations can support eWAPS.

Laying the groundwork for digital testing proved to be a difficult task. A Nov. 6 press release from the 18th Wing at Kadena Air Base, Japan explained that the education center there required funding from Air Force headquarters to order individual test stations and “advanced computer systems” to meet the new requirements. Engineers on the base then renovated the testing area before it was declared fully operational in September.

Air Force Times reported in September that the roll-out would begin in January. An Air Force spokesperson explained that Airmen will begin registering for eWAPS in January, but the testing itself has always been set to coincide with the E-6 testing cycle starting in February.

eWAPS sits at the intersection of two ongoing issues for the Air Force: personnel development and digital modernization. On the personnel side, Bass is pursuing a number of changes to better retain and grow Airmen, such as reforming developmental special duties, increasing commissioning opportunities for enlisted Airmen, offering better incentives to keep technical experts, and reforming how Airmen are assigned to duty locations.

On the digital side, the slow pace of setting up eWAPS is one of several frustrations Airmen feel about the IT systems they depend on to work, arrange travel, and process important paperwork. Many of those systems are outdated and struggle to perform basic tasks.

“Our Airmen always say, ‘I wonder if our leaders know, I wonder if our leaders understand the challenges we have.’ And I’m like, ‘Yes, we do, and we share those challenges, right?’” Bass said last year. “Like, we’re frustrated with the IT systems that we have, I mean, beyond belief. As many times as you have to add in your PIN, I have to do that too. I mean, I send stuff home to my phone or my whatever so that I can actually watch whatever I need to watch, because I can’t do it on my work [computer].”

If successful, eWAPS may represent progress on both issues.

“I look forward to hearing the feedback from our Airmen and appreciate the work by all to get us here,” Bass said about the upcoming roll-out.

B-1 Bombers, Guided-Missile Submarine in Middle East

Nov. 6, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak and Chris Gordon

The United States displayed a show of force in the Middle East on Nov. 5 with bomber flyovers and the deployment of a guided-missile submarine in the region against a backdrop of continuing attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria.

The U.S. is attempting to deter Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and other Iranian proxy forces from trying to capitalize on the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and stoke a broader regional conflict.

The Dyess Air Force Base, Texas-headquartered B-1 bombers, which deployed to Europe in October, flew over parts of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Nov. 5. The flight was part of a “long-planned Bomber Task Force mission” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters Nov. 6. The bombers’ last known location was Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, part of U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

“It’s important to differentiate the Bomber Task Force mission from the current situation in the Middle East,” Ryder said.

On November 5, 2023, a U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancer begins aerial refueling from a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 912th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron while conducting a Bomber Task Force mission over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The mission was… pic.twitter.com/HQQn9EECIS
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) November 5, 2023

A U.S. official familiar with the mission said the B-1s flew from a location in EUCOM through CENTCOM and onto the U.S. Africa Command region before returning to EUCOM.

The B-1s have a greater payload than either the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber or B-52 Stratofortress. Along with an undisclosed number of B-1s, some 100 Air Force support personnel arrived at RAF Fairford in the U.K. on Oct. 13 for the BTF.

During typical BTFs, bombers conduct exercises with allies and partners in the region and make unannounced base visits. B-1s from a BTF deploying to Europe conducted live-fire exercises at ranges in Jordan and Saudi Arabia in June. The Israeli Air Force separately joined the B-1s along their route.

Long used as a U.S. aerial tanker base and deployment hub in the region, thousands of protesters descended on Incirlik on Nov. 5. Based on photos circulating on social media, protesters swarmed the fence line at Incirlik, angry at American support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel. Turkish police used tear gas and water cannons to subdue the protesters, who eventually withdrew.

Hours after the protesters dispersed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Turkish capital of Ankara for talks with Turkey’s defense minister, Hakan Fidan, about the war in Gaza and other regional issues. Blinken also made a surprise visit to Baghdad to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in an attempt to stop attacks on American troops by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

According to a U.S. military official, American troops have been attacked in Iraq and Syria at least 38 times since Oct. 17. At least six of those attacks have occurred since Nov. 5, a significant uptick.

The U.S. also said the number of personnel injured in the attacks is more than double what the Pentagon previously disclosed, rising to at least 45 troops. Ryder said they suffered a mix of traumatic brain injuries (TBI) and “minor injuries.” Two of the personnel who were diagnosed with TBI initially returned to duty but have now been transported to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, Germany, for “further examination and care.” The U.S. has ascribed the attacks to Iranian-backed militias.

The U.S. presence in the region now includes two aircraft carriers, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea and the USS Gerald R. Ford in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, increased air defense systems, and doubled the number of Air Force fighter and attack squadrons—up to three F-16 squadrons, one F-15E squadron, and two A-10 squadrons.

However, the BTF is different, the Pentagon says.

“We do have the ability to walk and chew gum,” Ryder said.

The BTFs—which are deployed multiple times a year to multiple theaters—demonstrate “to our allies and our partners the capabilities we have to respond to a variety of situations, while showing our potential adversaries that we have these capabilities,” he added.

U.S. Central Command identified the submarine as an Ohio-class cruise missile boat operating in its area of responsibility under the control of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Theater commands rarely announce the presence of a submarine in their areas, as the vessels generally rely on stealth, so the move is undoubtedly a message to deter would-be opportunists in the region.

An Ohio-class submarine approaches the Mubarak Peace Bridge while transiting the Suez Canal, Nov. 5. The boat is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to help support maritime security and stability in the Middle East region. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jonathan Word

Photos of the boat in the Suez Canal were released along with the announcement.

The Navy has four Ohio-class guided-missile submarines—SSGNs—capable of carrying 145 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles (TLAMs) each. A TLAM has the destructive capacity of a 2,000-pound bomb but can be launched from up to 1,400 nautical miles away and can employ low-level, terrain-following routes to avoid detection and interception. The boats were converted from carrying nuclear-armed Trident sea-launched ballistic missiles in the early 2000s when the Defense Department determined that, rather than retiring four Ohio-class vessels, they would be useful in a conventional role.

The first use of SSGNs in their conventional land-attack role was during Operation Odyssey Dawn in 2011 when the USS Florida fired more than 90 Tomahawks at targets in Libya. The SSGN’s Tomahawk load is 50 percent greater than that of a guided missile destroyer.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet and the Pentagon declined to offer further details on the exact submarine deployed to CENTCOM.

“What this does is further support our deterrence efforts in the region, and I’ll just leave it at that,” Ryder said.

Allvin to Airmen: The Course Is Set. Now We Must Follow Through

Nov. 6, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

Gen. David W. Allvin’s first message to his Airmen praises each of the past three Air Force Chiefs of Staff for the work they did to modernize and set the priorities for a 21st Century Air Force. Now, he says, it’s up to every Airman to “follow through” to ensure those initiatives bear the fruit needed to meet the challenges of tomorrow.

Just days after being sworn in as USAF’s 23rd Chief of Staff, Allvin spelled out his priorities in a Nov. 6 memo to Airmen in which he emphasized the essential role the Air Force could play in future conflict.

“The attributes of the changing character of war are ones well suited for our service. Speed, tempo, range, agility, flexibility, precise lethality, and resilience have been the hallmarks of airpower since our inception,” Allvin wrote. “The future holds ambiguity, but our task is clear: We must now follow through.”

Allvin takes the helm at a critical juncture in the Pentagon’s move to implement the 2022 National Defense Strategy, which identifies China as the pacing threat due to its aggressive military buildup, the scale of its economy, and its great technical prowess, while noting the challenges posed by Russia, Iran, North Korea, and radical extremism.

The Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel demonstrates how regional crises can suddenly erupt and how the tentacles of multiple threat actors can be intertwined. The United States scrambled to deploy air, ground, and naval forces in the wake of that attack in an effort to deter others from entering the war. But each of the threats identified in the NDS has some kind of connection to the region. The Pentagon must grapple with the possibility that multiple conflicts may break out simultaneously in different parts of the globe.

Allvin, a former test pilot with more than 4,600 flight hours in more than 30 aircraft—including 800 flight test hours and 100 combat hours—is familiar with those challenges, having held key roles in Europe, Afghanistan, and the Pentagon on both the Air Staff and Joint Staff. He helped write “America’s Air Force: A Call to the Future” in 2014 and the “Air Force Future Operating Concept” in 2015, documents that laid the groundwork for what was initially termed “multi-domain operations” and later evolved to become and Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (C-JADC2).

Allvin was Vice Chief under Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., who became Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Oct. 1 and played a lead role in tackling recruiting and retention as the senior member of Brown’s Barriers to Service Cross-Functional Team, which worked to eliminate processes and rules that were keeping otherwise-qualified civilians from joining the force.

Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin speaks with Air Force and Space Force ROTC cadets and newly commissioned officers at the Pentagon, Arlington, Va., July 14, 2023. Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich

“We have formidable challenges ahead,” Allvin wrote, adding that “many of the solutions to these challenges are not a mystery” and that the Air Force has been working to address those challenges “for some time.”

The answer is not a handful of new initiatives, but the essential follow-through necessary to turn existing initiatives into results. Repeating that word follow through at least seven times he told Airmen it’s not time now to pause, but to move out:

“Follow through—on the changes our Airmen and their families expect and deserve. Changes worthy of their commitment and sacrifice, and suited to fulfill the oaths we take on service of this Nation.

“Follow through—to transform the products of our Operational Imperatives into actual meaningful operational capability. This requires thoughtful consideration and integration, with the ultimate aim of maximizing combat effectiveness.

“Follow through—to ensure our force presentation and force generation models are aligned to the way we intend to fight as articulated in our current Air Force Future Operating Concept. This means adapting many of our current paradigms for units of action, and orienting toward team preparation for deployment to be combat effective more rapidly.

“Follow through—to define and refine the force design that provides the optimum size, shape, and composition of our force. This entails not only incorporation of currently unfielded classes of capabilities (e.g., collaborative combat aircraft (CCA)), but also new competencies and skill sets for which we must organize and train future Airmen.

“Follow through—to adapt our organizational structure to optimize for great power competition. This entails applying “integrated by design” to capability development. This organizational design should focus on ensuring designated commanders can focus on training, readiness, and warfighting—with both the requisite authority and accountability. Meanwhile, other commanders will focus on supporting capability development and sustainment. However, all will be oriented on providing well trained, equipped, and ready forces for deterrence and conflict.

“Follow through—on training transformation. This requires continued focus on learner-centric training and education to optimize individual human performance. We have demonstrated new ways to leverage technology to not only improve information absorption and application for specific skill sets, but also ways to tailor training to individual Airmen and enable them to learn and apply skills more rapidly and effectively throughout their years of service.

“Follow through—on harnessing the innovative talent and spirit that exists in every corner of our Air Force by vectoring that energy towards solving our key Air Force challenges. We must continue to connect and empower the innovation ecosystem so the brilliance of individuals can better serve the entire Air Force team.

“Most importantly, we must follow through on our commitment to the success of the team. This includes demanding and protecting an environment in which all Airmen can reach their full potential. It means uplifting our wingmen, while holding ourselves accountable for our actions. It means removing barriers while maintaining and enforcing standards. It means all-axis leadership—top-down, peer-to-peer, and even ‘leading up.’”

Allvin has been the acting Chief of Staff of the Air Force since Oct. 1 while his nomination was held up in the Senate by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who has blocked general officer promotions over concerns about DOD funding travel for troops and family members seeking abortions or other reproductive health services unavailable in their duty locations.

After making no inroads with Tuberville, despite drawing increasing ire—and in some cases outright vitriol—of fellow Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called individual roll-call votes for the leaders of the military services up for a vote.

Despite the Senate’s political gridlock the upper chamber had little objection to Allvin himself, swiftly confirming him in a 95-1 vote on Nov. 2 once his nomination reached the floor. Allvin was sworn in soon after the vote by Kendall at Falcon Stadium at the Air Force Academy, his alma mater. Both men were attending Corona, a conference of senior Air Force leaders that Kendall and now Allvin lead.

“We know each of us is serving in a place of importance in this great Air Force, and in a time of extraordinary consequence,” Allvin concluded. “I can think of no cause more honorable than this, and I could not be more proud to serve as your Chief of Staff. We know the challenges… let’s follow through and meet them head on!”

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What’s Next For Air Force Special Tactics?

Nov. 6, 2023 | By David Roza

Editor’s Note: This is the third in a three-part series about Special Reconnaissance. The first story can be found here and the second can be found here.

Fort Liberty, N.C. — Members of the Air Force’s newest special tactics career field, special reconnaissance (SR) are trained to infiltrate enemy territory and gather information on hostile air defenses. That mission is part of a larger shift as the military prepares for conflicts with near-peer adversaries such as China and Russia.

Older special tactics career fields are also feeling the shift as they focus on skills not often utilized during the past 20 years of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). For example, combat controllers (CCTs) are certified Federal Aviation Administration air traffic controllers who can establish airfields in hostile environments. But during counterterrorism operations, they often served as joint terminal attack controllers, calling in airstrikes to support ground troops.

“For us, GWOT was the JTAC mission,” Capt. Max Krasnov, a special tactics officer and training flight commander with the 352nd Special Warfare Training Squadron at Pope Army Airfield, N.C., told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “We were doing some airfield missions, but I would say 95 percent of what we were doing was JTAC.”

As the Air Force prepares to operate from small islands in the Pacific, CCTs may find themselves helping guide aircraft to austere airfields more often than they did during America’s conflicts in the Middle East.

“Historically, the air mobility mission is one of our bread-and-butters,” he said.

In May, combat controllers with the Kentucky Air National Guard’s 123rd Special Tactics Squadron guided MC-130J transport aircraft, A-10 attack jets, MH-6M helicopters, and MQ-9 drones in for a landing on two highways in Wyoming, an exercise meant to practice generating airpower in austere locations.

“We’re paving the way for what we think ‘forward’ is going to look like,” Master Sgt. Devin Butcher, the lead planner and organizer for the ground force in the exercise, said in a press release at the time. “It’s our responsibility to provide options for the access and placement of all our assets — not just Air Force, but Army, Navy, Marines, everybody.”

A new CCT recruiting ad also emphasized that role with the line “we turn hell into an airstrip … and clear the way for others to follow.”

Meanwhile, the JTAC mission could take a different form in a near-peer conflict, where enemy air defenses may force friendly aircraft to use longer-range munitions dropped farther from the target. In that situation, SR Airmen, who specialize in deep reconnaissance, may serve as remote spotting scopes for CCTs farther away.

“There are a lot of scenarios where the JTAC is back at the base and a team is passing the relevant information of what’s going on,” Krasnov said. “They know the ground truth, but I am trained to process that and explain it to aircraft.”

Pararescue

In GWOT, PJs and other medics often rode helicopters out to injured troops and cared for them on the flight back to a large base with robust medical facilities. But in a near-peer conflict, operators may be much farther from medical facilities, and there may be no flights due to distance and enemy air defenses.

“There was no chance a mission was getting approved if there was not a specific plan that anyone on that mission could get transported to a high level of surgical care within an hour,” said Krasnov of his deployments. “To go from that to ‘we’re probably not going to hear from you for a week’ is a much different mindset and a much different level of risk that you need to plan for.”

air force pjs — A U.S. Airman, training with the 68th Rescue Squadron, takes notes on simulated casualties, Sept. 17, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class William Finn V

PJs are now training to provide care for more patients for longer periods of time than they typically did during GWOT. In a recent exercise off the coast of California, PJs practiced caring for injured patients amid missile strikes, contested airspace, limited supplies, and other challenges meant to simulate what they may face in a war in the Pacific. In one scenario, Airmen treated about two dozen patients after a missile strike on an airfield, then moved them to a contingency location via helicopter.

“This simulates one of the most likely mission sets we could respond to: mass casualties caused by a missile strike at a forward operating site,” Master Sgt. Trevor Runyan, the Instructor Flight Chief at the 68th Rescue Squadron, a formal training unit for PJs, previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Later on, the PJs rescued simulated pilots who had been shot down and landed in the water. Some had drifted into contested airspace, so the PJs jumped out of fixed-wing aircraft with parachute-configured Zodiac boats to pick them up, then bring them back to friendly airspace where a helicopter could carry them to shore. Throughout the exercise, the PJs juggled multiple missions and limited resources.

“As a 10-man element, they must prioritize missions and determine if and when they should operate as a split team, and the risks associated with that,” Runyan said.

While counterterrorism missions continue in the Middle East and Africa, special operations forces across the military are also reassessing their approach to risk in preparation for near-peer conflict.

“For U.S. ground special operations leaders, attitudes toward risk tolerance remain shaped by the last two decades of war in the Middle East and Africa,” special operations expert Spencer Reed wrote in January for War on the Rocks. “But if these leaders are to offer utility to the joint force or their parent services in the future fight, they should reframe and reassess how they view risk now, ahead of a future armed conflict with a great power adversary.”

ICBM Test Failure Puts Nuclear Modernization Effort Into Focus

Nov. 3, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

A recent failed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile test has led to new concerns about the age of America’s land-based nuclear arsenal.

“It has served our country well and we will continue to depend on it to deter nuclear war until the 2030s, but this week’s test is a stark reminder that nothing lasts forever,” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement released on Nov. 3. “We must modernize our aging nuclear deterrent and replace the Minuteman III missile—as well as the rest of our nuclear enterprise—with modern systems.”

An unarmed Minuteman III missile was terminated during a test launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., due to an anomaly on Nov. 1.

While the Air Force is investigating to pinpoint the issue, Tim Ryan, Senior Resident Fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said that he doesn’t believe the anomaly is linked to the age of the Minuteman system, suggesting it could have been caused by a variety of reasons.

Anomaly can represent any deviation or irregularity from the expected or projected behavior during the launch and testing process of the missile, which itself is an “extremely rigid and rigorous” regime.

Ryan emphasized that MM III technology remains reliable, as proven through regular flight tests conducted multiple times a year. The nuclear-capable missile has a range of 6,000-plus miles and can travel at approximately 15,000 miles per hour.

However, he added that other aspects of the weapon system, such as the silo, electronics, and warhead, are equally as old, and have been long neglected.

“As a whole, the weapon system is reliable. But it could use vital upgrades, just to be able to bring the weapon system up to date,” said Ryan.

The upcoming Sentinel missiles, which U.S. officials say will be easier to maintain and upgrade, are set to replace the 400 Minuteman IIIs in the continental U.S.

The Pentagon is accelerating the Sentinel tasks to meet the operational goal by Sept. 2030, as part of the nation’s broader modernization initiative of all three components of nuclear forces—air, land, and sea.

The Sentinel program is currently updating its integrated master schedule alongside Air Force and Office of the Secretary of Defense efforts to implement new acquisition strategies, an Air Force Spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The Air Force also contracted Lockheed Martin to produce customized reentry vehicle MK21A for the ICBM, expected to be completed by 2039.

The RV program has just entered the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) on Oct. 30, the spokesperson added.

However, challenges still exist regarding the timely delivery of the Sentinel system.

House Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) and other members of Congress have previously questioned the necessity of simultaneous triad modernization, advocating for independent validation of the Air Force’s cost estimates for the Sentinel.

The Air Force also stressed its planning and operations of the project being significantly hindered by continuing resolutions. In October, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center said they face budget constraints that affect delivering necessary nuclear capabilities for daily deterrence due to these restrictions.

Ryan emphasized the importance of Congress prioritizing the nuclear modernization effort and passing a budget, which has yet to happen for the current fiscal year.

“They need to understand the impact of passing continuing resolutions on a program like Sentinel, and ensure consistent funding at the levels and timing that can make it a reality.”

He added that the launch results from Nov. 1 are not expected to affect future scheduled tests unless the analysis discovers a flight problem, which has never occurred in prior tests.

Multiple Minuteman III tests are slated for the upcoming year at Vandenberg Space Force base, as ICBM launches are planned years in advance.

Ken Mattingly, Apollo and Space Shuttle Astronaut, Dies at 87

Nov. 3, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Thomas Kenneth Mattingly, II, the command module pilot of Apollo 16, commander of two Space Shuttle missions, and an aerospace industry executive died in Arlington, Va. on Oct. 31 at 87. He was one of only two astronauts to fly both an Apollo and Shuttle in space.

Mattingly was commissioned in the Navy in 1958 and served as a pilot aboard aircraft carriers from 1960-1965. After completing the Air Force Aerospace Research Test Pilot School, he was one of 19 pilots selected in 1966 to be a NASA astronaut.

During his first five years with NASA, Mattingly supported the Apollo 8 and 11 missions and was the astronaut liaison to the industry/government team developing the Apollo space suit and backpack.

He was selected for and trained as command module pilot of Apollo 13, but due to exposure to Rubella, he was removed from the mission only three days before launch, replaced by backup astronaut Jack Swigert.

Enroute to the moon, Apollo 13 suffered an oxygen tank explosion in its service module, which decimated the command and service module’s power supply. Mattingly helped develop power transfer workarounds between the command and lunar modules that allowed the latter to be used as a lifeboat and revive the command module’s systems in time for re-entry.

Despite his exposure, Mattingly did not become sick with Rubella.

Mattingly’s contributions to the ill-fated mission were recounted in the 1995 film, “Apollo 13,” which was nominated for an Academy Award as Best Picture, and in which he was played by actor Gary Sinise.

In a Nov. 1 statement, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said Mattingly “stayed behind and provided key real-time decisions to successfully bring home the wounded spacecraft and the crew of Apollo 13.”

Back in the Apollo flight rotation, Mattingly was named command module pilot for Apollo 16, the penultimate moon mission, which sent astronauts John Young and Charles Duke to the lunar surface for three days in April 1972. During that time, Mattingly, alone in the command module, conducted 36 experiments and mapped large swaths of the lunar surface.

On the return flight to Earth, Mattingly conducted a 73-minute extra-vehicular activity (EVA) to retrieve film canisters from the craft’s service module. To date, it is one of only three deep-space spacewalks conducted beyond geostationary orbit.

Ken Mattingly performing an extra-vehicular activity (EVA) during Apollo 16/NASA

After the Apollo program, Mattingly became a key figure in the development, test, and operation of the Space Shuttle. From 1973 to 1978, he was head of the astronaut office to support the Space Transportation System (STS), at which point he became technical assistant for flight test of the program.

From December 1979 to April 1981, he headed the astronaut office ascent/entry group. Mattingly was the backup commander for the STS-2 and STS-3 missions, the second and third orbital test flights of the shuttle Columbia.

He commanded STS-4 in July 1982. The Columbia mission was the last of four test flights of the shuttle system, which completed 112 orbits of the Earth. It landed on July 4 at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. where President Ronald Reagan greeted the returning Mattingly and pilot Henry Hartsfield. From June 1983 through May 1984, Mattingly headed the Astronaut Office DOD Support Group

STS-4 Crew Portrait showing Commander Thomas K. (Ken) Mattingly, II., right, and Pilot Henry W. Hartsfield, Jr./NASA

In January, 1985, Mattingly commanded STS-51C with a crew of five, which was the first dedicated military mission of the shuttle aboard Discovery. The mission launched a secret Department of Defense payload using the Inertial Upper Stage booster from the payload bay. The mission remains largely classified.

During his years as an astronaut, Mattingly logged over 504 hours in space. He retired from NASA in 1985, but returned to the Navy, retiring from that service as a two-star Admiral the following year.

Working in the public sector, Mattingly was director of Grumman’s Space Station Support Division, headed the Atlas booster program for General Dynamics, and was vice-president at Lockheed, where he ran the X-33 space shuttle successor program later canceled by the Pentagon and NASA in 2001, with 85 percent of the initial flight vehicle complete.

“TK Mattingly was key to the success of our Apollo Program, and his shining personality will ensure he is remembered throughout history,” Nelson said.

Mattingly held an aeronautical engineering degree from Auburn University, and received numerous aerospace awards and honors, including the Department of Defense and NASA Distinguished Service Medals, the Society of Experimental Test Pilots Ivan Kincheloe Award, the Navy Distinguished Service Medal, and the Johnson Space Center Certificate of Commendation and Group Achievement Award. He had accumulated over 7,200 flying hours, including more than 5,000 in jets.