Space Superiority May Come Only in Blips, Industry Exec Warns

Space Superiority May Come Only in Blips, Industry Exec Warns

Sept. 11, 2023 | By David Roza

A space industry executive warned that the U.S military may have only brief moments of near-complete control of the space domain, so it must be ready to act as a team to exploit those moments to the fullest.

“The thinking that we can attain and maintain space superiority is really fraught with hubris,” Amy Hopkins, vice president and general manager of national security space for Peraton, said at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference on Sept. 11.

“The complex evolving nature of the battlespace requires us to acknowledge that there’s a temporal aspect to this,” Hopkins explained. “We are only going to really have episodic instances of space superiority. Therefore I think the question should be: ‘Are we prepared and trained to maximize the effects when we have that? And do we know what to do when we don’t?’”

Hopkins shared her thoughts during a panel on space order of battle, one of Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s operational imperatives. The challenge of that imperative is to protect space capabilities, protect military space services, and defeat adversary space capabilities. Defeating adversary capabilities may help achieve space superiority, which a 2020 joint and a 2021 Air Force doctrine publication defined as “the degree of control in space by one force over another that permits the conduct of operations at a given time and place without effective interference from opposing forces.”

The idea of space superiority is similar to that of air superiority, but the Air Force publication cautioned that the state of desired control “may not always be achievable, particularly against a peer or near-peer adversary.” Part of the challenge is that “place” does not refer to controlling physical space, but instead to specific terrestrial areas impacted by space operations. 

“The ability to achieve space superiority or supremacy is impacted by the laws of physics, international law, and existing policy,” the publication explained. For example, it may not be in America’s interest to fully deny space capabilities to adversaries, when denying them may cause collateral effects to friendly forces or third-party users.

On top of political concerns, China boasts “the most rapidly developing counterspace capabilities of any nation,” retired Col. Charles S. Galbreath, senior resident fellow for space studies at the Mitchell Institute, wrote in a June research paper. Those capabilities include ground-launch kinetic missiles, ground-based electronic warfare tools, and satellites that can attack U.S. assets in orbit.

This illustration created for the Space-Based Weapons section of the “Competing in Space” unclassified report depicts space-based anti-satellite systems that target other space systems. National Air and Space Intelligence Center illustration by Justin Weisbarth.

To defend against those attacks, Galbreath called for the Space Force and industry to work together to quickly develop defensive and offensive capabilities. He also called for more Space Force funding from Congress; clear guidance and counterspace force design; better Space Force situational awareness; telemetry, tracking, and control of satellites; and test and training infrastructure.

The rest of the joint and coalition forces must also be ready to exploit the opportunity if space superiority is achieved, Hopkins said.

“Can we execute a joint and coalition air, sea, land, subsurface beating with such magnitude during that window that we can achieve the maximum effects and really no adversary can then stay ahead of what we have prevented forward?” asked Hopkins, who called on the Space Force to train and exercise “to this idea of the temporal aspect of space superiority—when we have it and when we will not have it.”

In the meantime, the Space Force is working hard to make its own capabilities more difficult to deny. By building larger constellations of satellites, the service hopes to create networks that can withstand losses and make destroying individual spacecraft not worth the cost. The Space Force is also working to make its ground and launch systems more resilient to cyberattack.

Hopkins and her co-panelists also called for making commercial capabilities a key part of the wider space security posture, in line with what other space industry executives have said in the past.

“We have to train how we’re going to fight [and] we all know we’re going to leverage commercial capabilities … everything from rapid launch” to satellite communications and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, Hopkins said. “The more you can incorporate commercial partners into the training and the exercises, the better-positioned we will be for the fight that is yet to come.”

New Air Force Recruiting Boss Calls on Every Member to Be a Recruiter

New Air Force Recruiting Boss Calls on Every Member to Be a Recruiter

Sept. 11, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Amid military-wide recruiting struggles and bleak long-term trends, the Air Force is set to miss its annual recruiting goal for the Active-Duty component by around 10 percent when the fiscal year ends Sept. 30, with slightly worse numbers for the Guard and Reserve, officials said Sept. 11.

Seeking to close the gap, the Air Force Recruiting Service is looking outside its traditional workforce of recruiters to retired members and everyday Airmen and Guardians, AFRS boss Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein and others said at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference.

The Challenges

The Air Force first started projecting a 10 percent recruiting shortfall in March, and the service subsequently implemented changes to relax restrictions on tattoos, naturalization, and body mass index, part of a broader effort to “make sure we’re not unintentionally placing barriers [in front of] Americans who might want to join our formation,” Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Yet there are broader cultural issues that make talent acquisition difficult, Amrhein said. Fewer youth today have parents with military connections, and results a generational gap in military knowledge and experience passed down within families:

  • Nine out of 10 American adults cannot name all five branches of the military nowadays
  • Only 23 percent of American youth are eligible for enlistment in the military, and less than half of the pool express interest in joining
  • Among the approximately 20 million Americans aged 17 to 21, only about 370,000 meet the eligibility criteria, possess the academic qualifications, and show interest in pursuing a career in the Air or Space Force.

“In 1995, about 40 percent of parents were either serving or had served in the military,” Amrhein said. “But in the last couple of years, it’s been only around 13 percent inside households.”

Amrhein also noted a recent study on parents’ and grandparents’ support for their children or grandchildren joining the military. According to the study, around 50 percent of grandparents and fathers favored the idea, while only about 36 percent of mothers said they would support their children joining the service.

“That’s where we come in. People aren’t recommending the service as much as they used to for various reasons,” said Chief Master Sgt. Rebecca A. C. Arbona, Command Chief Master Sergeant of AFRS.

Another factor exacerbating the gap between the military and the community is the shortage of recruitment distribution due to the increasing cost of talent acquisition. As an example, Amrhein pointed out that there are only four Air Force recruiters in the state of Montana.

The Solution

To address these issues, Amrhein said AFRS has introduced E-recruiters—retired Air Force recruiters who stay engaged with the community through virtual platforms. They effectively cover regions that regular recruiters cannot reach.

Amrhein also noted the partnership with AFA and AFA’s recruiting task force and their role in expanding recruitment, adding that he’d like to have a document outlining tactics, techniques, and procedures that he can distribute to chapters nationwide

More broadly, Amrhein urged Air Force and Space Force personnel to share their personal journeys. He emphasized the importance of Active-Duty and retired service members, along with their families, telling their stories to inspire the next generation.

 “What was your ‘why’? Why did you join the Air Force, and what do you do every day?” he asked. “It’s important. Tell your story. You are an influencer just as much as you are a recruiter, for every Airman and Guardian.”

To illustrate the diverse motivations behind Airmen’s decisions to join the service, four members from the audience took the stage. Tech. Sgt. Cam Kelsh said his decision to enlist was deeply influenced by the shock of witnessing the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the news alongside his mother when he was only in sixth grade. It was at that moment, he said, he realized that his homeland was not invulnerable.

Senior Airman Kristina Schneider said she had a lifelong desire to be part of the Air Force. However, she initially believed it was an impossible dream due to starting her family at a young age. As her children grew older, she mustered the courage to ask them if they were comfortable with her pursuing her dreams. To her surprise, they encouraged her to go for it, and she was able to join the Air Force before reaching the age limit for enlistment.

Amrhein stressed how these unique, individual experiences of all members of Air Force and Space Force could have an impact on the community. And he encouraged everyone to take a more active role in staying connected and sharing information, while highlighting the crucial role of social media, especially to engage with Generation Z.

Amrhein assumed command of AFRS on June 2, acknowledging that he was taking over “in a challenging time.”

PACAF Boss: China Risks ‘Disaster’ With Unsafe Intercepts of US Aircraft

PACAF Boss: China Risks ‘Disaster’ With Unsafe Intercepts of US Aircraft

Sept. 11, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

Chinese pilots are risking “disaster” with repeated unsafe intercepts of American planes operating in the Pacific, the top U.S. Air Force general in the region said Sept. 11.

“We do fly a lot close to China,” Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach, commander of Pacific Air Forces, told reporters at AFA’s Air, Space, & Cyber Conference. “It’s not uncommon for U.S. military aircraft to be intercepted 10 times a day.”

For the most part, the intercepts—which the U.S. military stresses occur in international airspace—are “safe,” Wilsbach said.

Sometimes, however, there are incidents the Pentagon deems risky. The U.S. and many of its allies have taken to publicly identifying some of these incidents, seemingly trying to shame the People’s Liberation Army for operating their aircraft and vessels recklessly. China has a different view.

“When we call them out on these unprofessional, unsafe [intercepts], they’re not willing to have a discussion,” Wilsbach said. “We don’t have that kind of conversation. They blame it on us.”

China claims most of the South China Sea, over which American surveillance aircraft such as USAF RC-135s routinely fly, as its territory.

“Their typical response is, ‘This is your fault because this wouldn’t have happened if you weren’t here,’” Wilsbach said. “Now, let’s just get to the gist of the problem, which is what they’re saying is they don’t want us to exercise the same right that they have to be in international airspace.”

Wilsbach said the U.S. does not take issue with the broad premise of its aircraft possibly being intercepted. NORAD aircraft often intercept Russian aircraft in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), an early warning buffer that extends beyond U.S. airspace. The U.S. military typically stresses those incidents do not violate American sovereignty.

“All we’re asking them to do is just execute safely and professionally,” Wilsbach said. “You can intercept. That’s your right to intercept, just like we do when we have aircraft flying inside of our air identification zones. So do it safely, do it professionally, and everybody will be OK. We won’t have a miscalculation. We won’t have a disaster.”

Wilsbach, speaking broadly about Chinese pilots’ capabilities, said he “wouldn’t think that any of them have prowess like an American fighter pilot,” though he did not cite Chinese aviators’ skills as a safety concern.

“They are not in the same category as what we are trained to,” Wilsbach added.

The U.S. is particularly concerned about the actions of Chinese aircraft because of a lack of high-level communication between the two sides. Military-to-military channels have largely been frozen since Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met his then-counterpart last November.

Since that meeting, tensions in the region have only grown between the U.S. and China. A Chinese jet came within a few yards of U.S. Air Force RC-135 over the South China Sea in December, and in February, an F-22 Raptor shot down a Chinese surveillance balloon that transited the continental U.S. U.S. officials have stressed they want communication to avoid escalation.

A Chinese J-16 fighter passes directly in front of a U.S. Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint over the South China Sea on May 26, 2023. Courtesy video/U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

“It’s really important that the most senior folks can talk to each other as quickly as possible when something happens,” said Dr. Mara Karlin, who is performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, at a Defense Writers Group Event in August. “So Secretary Austin keeps asking for that.”

The often opaque nature of decision-making by the Chinese Communist Party and its People’s Liberation Army under leader Xi Jinping makes it difficult for the U.S. to judge intentions without interactions, experts note.

“We have been trying really hard to set up communication channels and they have not been enthusiastic about those,” Karlin added. “That’s really problematic.”

China insists U.S. sanctions prevent a meeting between Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Austin, though U.S. leaders say that is not the case. China’s Defense Ministry also insists military-to-military talks have “not stopped.”

In a meeting that occurred after Karlin’s comments, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Adm. John Aquilino spoke to Chinese military officials at a defense forum in Fiji last month. But overall, substantive talks remain limited.

A previous encounter between U.S. and Chinese aircraft turned deadly and led to a diplomatic crisis. A Chinese fighter and a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane collided in 2001, resulting in the temporary detention of U.S. personnel after they were forced to make an emergency landing in China. The Chinese pilot was killed.

China’s unwillingness to engage in substantive talks or establish lines for discussion in a crisis, in particular, creates concern for regional commanders like Wilsbach when incidents occur.

“That’s concerning to me because some of these could be very close to a disaster,” Wilsbach said.

Air Force C3 Modernization Czar: ‘We’re Deploying Capability Starting Now’

Air Force C3 Modernization Czar: ‘We’re Deploying Capability Starting Now’

Sept. 11, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

After years of planning, experiments, and discussion, the Department of the Air Force is ready to start modernizing its command, control, and communications capabilities now, the top general overseeing the effort said Sept. 11. 

“The modernization of [C3] isn’t tomorrow, it’s today,” Brig. Gen. Luke C.G. Cropsey, integrating program executive officer for command, control, communications, and battle networks, told reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “We’re deploying capability starting now. It will obviously continue to happen in the future. But this isn’t something that’s five years away. This is today. So we’re putting capability out in the field.” 

Cropsey’s declaration comes two years after Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall first expressed concern that the Advanced Battle Management System, the department’s ambitious plan to connect sensors and shooters across the globe, was not focused enough on deploying operationally relevant capabilities.

Specifically, Cropsey said his team is prepared to declare initial operational capability for its Could-Based Command and Control (CBC2) network for U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command next month. CBC2 will aggregate and integrate military and commercial air defense data sources into one common picture to support homeland defense. 

Cropsey also said that before the end of the year, the Air Force will start fielding a new digital infrastructure needed to support new system architectures his team has been helping to develop for months. 

CBC2 

CBC2 was previously called Capability Release 2, intended to be the second deliverable product of ABMS. In the works starting in 2021, the system officially became a program in May 2022. 

According to an Air Force release, CBC2 fuses data from 750 radar feeds into a single interface and allows operators to create “machine-generated courses of action to help shorten the tactical C2 kill chain and send a desired effect via machine-to-machine connections.” 

The system is replacing the Battle Control System-Fixed network and integrating data from other air and missile warning and missile defense systems. But rather than attempting to build one massive capability, Cropsey said his team chose to “thin slice” it. 

“We didn’t do an overall CBC2 contract and hand it off to somebody that kind of did all the typical integration kinds of things,” Cropsey said. “We actually went directly to the experts in their respective layer of the stack, and we said, ‘Hey, who’s the best at ‘fill in the blank’ and we went and we got them on contract.” 

One of the biggest contracts went to SAIC, which got $112 million as the software integrator for the system, “but we’ve got a lot of contracts all operating together on that CBC2 piece,” Cropsey noted. 

The Air Force has referred to the various capabilities from those contracts as “microservice applications,” with an emphasis on regularly releasing updates.

That process, called agile development, security, and operations or DevSecOps in the software world, is one the Pentagon writ large has struggled to adopt, but Cropsey said his team and U.S. Northern Command are dedicated to making it work. 

“The [combatant command] ponied up to giving us operational people, so for every microservice that we’re generating inside of the CBC2 architecture, we have literally a dedicated operational person with that team that’s generating that microservice,” Cropsey said. “So we’re actually generating the kind of user and development cycle that an agile process actually calls for. That may be the single biggest reason why CBC2 is moving as well as it’s moving.” 

Given that success, Cropsey said he’s already started thinking about how to scale and implement CBC2 in other combatant commands and regions of the world. 

Digital Infrastructure 

For much of fiscal 2023, Cropsey said, his office has worked on the architectures necessary to enable modernized command and control—the connections and organizations needed for the Air Force’s ambitious plan to connect sensors and shooters around the globe. Leading that effort has been Dr. Bryan Tipton, C3BM chief of architecture and engineering.

In recent months, Tipton and his team have delivered analyses to the Secretary of the Air Force on the architectures needed in air and space for modernized C2. The contents of those analyses are classified, Cropsey said, but a key underlying element is the digital infrastructure—the computing power, programs, and process necessary to make the architecture work. 

“Regardless of where you’re going to fight, what you want to communicate, the data and the information that you need to flow through that system, if you don’t have a digital infrastructure to do it on, it’s a pipe dream,” Cropsey said. 

The Air Force’s IT systems and computing power are often a source of frustration for the average Airman, but Cropsey projected optimism that the “DAF Battle Network” will have what it needs. 

“We’re going to start putting digital infrastructure out into the field this year,” said Cropsey. “So, super excited about that. It’s fundamentally an enabler of anything that you want to actually do from a C2 perspective.” 

‘Your Duty to Provide’: Kendall Pushes Lawmakers to Act on Three Fronts

‘Your Duty to Provide’: Kendall Pushes Lawmakers to Act on Three Fronts

Sept. 11, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

With the threat of a government shutdown looming, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall issued an urgent plea to Congress at AFA’s Air, Space, & Cyber Conference on Sept. 11.

“We have already lost far too much time waiting for Congress to act on our modernization funding needs,” Kendall said during a keynote address.

In his speech, Kendall outlined three major asks from lawmakers:

  • The authority for the Department of the Air Force to begin work on its modernization efforts.
  • The money to fund those modernization efforts
  • The end to an ongoing legislative hold on nominations by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) that has prevented more than 100 general officers from across the Air Force and Space Force from taking on new positions or new ranks.

“We urge you to give us the authorization, appropriations, and confirmations that it is your duty to provide for our military,” Kendall said in remarks directed at lawmakers.

The Department of the Air Force has sweeping plans for a whole host of modernization programs like Collaborative Combat Aircraft, Next Generation Air Dominance, and the LGM-35 Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile. But Congress is deadlocked in budget negotiations, with the end of the fiscal year looming at the end of September.

Already, Kendall noted, the chances of getting a fiscal 2024 budget on time are all but finished. Instead, he argued Congress must work to mitigate the damage.

“Waiting does not make us more competitive or enhance deterrence,” Kendall said.

In what has become common practice in Washington, if a budget is not agreed to by the start of the fiscal year, lawmakers can a “continuing resolution” to avert a government shutdown. But CRs only fund the government at current levels and halt “new starts”—projects or activities that were not previously funded or authorized. Collaborative Combat Aircraft would be perhaps the most high-profile Air Force new start in 2024.

“Do not extend any CR beyond December,” Kendall said. “We can manage a short CR as we have many times. Beyond that, much more serious damage would be done to American security.”

As Kendall noted, starting the year under a CR has become commonplace. But he pressed further in urging Congress not to enact blanket cuts to the military or allow a repeat of 2013, when lawmakers triggered automatic, large cuts—known as budget sequestration—across the U.S. government after failing to resolve a spat over funding levels.

“We endured this kind of irrational cut 10 years ago and are still recovering,” Kendall said. “We never want to do something like that again.”

Such a move would have “severe reductions in modernization and readiness,” he added.

A prolonged continuing resolution and budget cuts could go hand in hand—as part of their deal earlier this summer to raise the debt ceiling, the White House and Congress agreed to a provision that states that if any part of the government is funded by a CR starting Jan. 1, there will be a 1 percent cut for all discretionary spending until a new budget is approved.

Beyond his concerns for fiscal 2024, Kendall also reiterated his top legislative proposal for Congress—granting authority to the Air Force and the other military departments to start critical programs without a budget, what he termed a “quick start” proposal.

That would allow the Air Force and Space Force to begin “our highest priority and most urgent programs immediately without having to wait for even a regular budget cycle—to say nothing of a CR,” Kendall said. “This initiative will prevent us from losing ground unnecessarily in the military technological race with China.”

While Kendall is famous for defining his top three priorities as “China, China, China,” he insisted those words and other slogans aimed at modernizing were not bluster.

“For those of you who may be wondering when we’ll get back to normal, this is normal,” Kendall said of the U.S. competition with China. “We have a well-resourced strategic pacing challenge that is showing no sign of slowing down or quitting. We are in a race for technological and operational superiority that we can expect to last for the next several decades.”

Kendall: Major DAF Review to Focus on 5 Key Functions with Recommendations by January

Kendall: Major DAF Review to Focus on 5 Key Functions with Recommendations by January

Sept. 11, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The sweeping review of Air Force readiness that Secretary Frank Kendall announced last week will pursue five lines of effort, he said in his keynote address at AFA’s Air, Space and Cyber conference on Sept. 11.

“There is no time to lose,” Kendall said of the assessment, which will be conducted, reviewed, and ready for implementation by January 2024. At that time, “that major effort will shift from identification” of areas needing improvement “and analysis of alternatives to execution of recommendations,” Kendall said.

The review is meant to “reoptimize” the Air Force for an era of great power competition with the likes of China and Russia, Kendall said. After launching his seven operational imperatives in March 2022 to modernize the platforms and the equipment the department needs for that competition, Kendall said he and his leadership team “are not as comfortable with other aspects of our enterprise.”

Specifically, the review and reorganization will focus on five lines of effort, led by “five teams formed from the Department of the Air Force Secretariat, the Air Force and Space Force staffs” with participation from the field, Kendall said. The five lines are:

  • Organization: “How we are organized, both in the headquarters and in the field,” Kendall said.
  • Equipment: “How we equip the force.”
  • Personnel: “How we recruit, retain and train our people, including how we optimize career paths and manage talent.”
  • Readiness: “How we create, sustain and evaluate readiness across the Air and Space Forces.”
  • Supporting the force: “How we provide support to the operational Air & Space Forces, to include providing installations, mobilizing, demobilizing, providing operational medicine, etc.”

“All these efforts will be closely guided by the Department’s senior leaders,” Kendall said. “It will be an inclusive process, open to and encouraging of innovative thinking. Just as we have challenging and innovative potential adversaries, we must be open to new ways of organizing and doing business ourselves.”

Kendall said that it is his goal that by the time of the next AFA national conference—in September 2024—“the changes we need to reoptimize for great power competition and possible conflict will be underway.”

He did not specify when he expects the reorganization to be complete but emphasized that time is of the essence, and the nation’s competitors are not relaxing their push to modernize and organize for future combat.

“It has become increasingly clear that more change is needed and that we need to accelerate this process,” Kendall said. “We must ensure that the Air Force and Space Force are optimized to provide integrated deterrence, support campaigning, and ensure enduring advantage.”

Kendall noted that some major changes are already underway, pointing to the Air Force Force Generation model (AFFORGEN), and “evolving allocations of responsibility across Space Force field commands.”

He also said that he created three Air Task Forces on Sept. 8 “to serve as pilots in order to experiment with ways to more effectively provide deployable integrated units.” Two of these will be tied to U.S. Central Command and one to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

“These are not the final, permanent deployable units we expect to form, but they are a major step in the right direction, and we will learn from this experience,” Kendall said.

The Air Force is also deep in the process of deploying its Agile Combat Employment model for dispersing forces across a wide array of operating locations, and is developing its “Multi-Capable Airman” concept, Kendall said, although neither is yet “fully implemented.”

Kendall noted that China has been reorganizing its armed forces since 2016, across exactly the same five lines of effort he laid out.

“Last week we briefed some of our outside advisers on this effort. One of them was born in China and is a leading expert on Chinese culture, history, and government. Her reaction was interesting; her view is that the DAF five lines of effort—organizing, equipping, personnel, readiness, and support—are essentially identical to the lines of effort [President] Xi Jinping has been implementing since 2016 to prepare China for war with the United States,” Kendall said. He repeated that the Air and Space Forces must not delay in optimizing for battle, the better to deter a conflict that the U.S. does not seek.