US Airstrike Kills Militia Leader in Iraq in Rare Targeted Attack

Jan. 4, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. conducted a rare drone strike in Baghdad on Jan. 4 that killed a leader of an Iranian-backed militia, in an effort to deter further attacks on American forces in Iraq and Syria.

The Pentagon described the strike, which took place at noon local time, as a “necessary and proportionate” step to eliminate a ranking Iraqi militia figure who has been implicated in planning and carrying out attacks on U.S. service personnel.

The target was Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawari, also known as Abu Taqwa, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters.

A leader of the militia Harakat-al-Nujaba, Abu Taqwa was traveling in a vehicle at the time of the attack. The strike also killed another member of the group.

The strike was a first for the Biden administration: the first known targeted killing of an Iran-backed militia leader.

Iraq’s government was quick to condemn the strike, which it said violated the agreement that allows some 2,500 U.S. troops to stay in Iraq so they can mentor Iraqi forces who are battling with remnants of the Islamic State.

Iraqi security forces spokesperson Maj. Gen. Yehia Rasool said the U.S. strike was a “blatant aggression and violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and security” and “akin to terrorist activities.”

But Iranian-backed militias have carried out at least 120 attacks against the U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17, according to a U.S. military official, one of which critically injured a service member.

“The U.S. always maintains the inherent right of self-defense if our forces are threatened,” Ryder said.

The broader question is whether the action will deter future attacks by Iranian-backed militias or spur them to step up their drone and rocket attacks on American personnel.

Since Hamas terrorists attacked Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel responded by sending forces into Gaza, the Biden administration has tried to carry out a difficult balancing act.

It has sought to avoid a wider war in the region and inflaming the political situation inside Iraq, including the debate over the U.S. military presence there. Yet the roughly half-dozen more modest strikes the U.S. previously carried out in Iraq and Syria have failed to dissuade the Iran-backed militias from continuing their attacks.

The Pentagon provided few details about this latest operation, including the type of aircraft that carried it out. The U.S. action came a day after the fourth anniversary of the Trump administration’s drone attack that killed Iran paramilitary leader Qassem Soleimani near the Baghdad airport.

Harakat al-Nujaba was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department in 2019. According to an analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the militia has been responsible for 69 percent of attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17. The group is thought to have carried out a March 2023 drone attack in eastern Syria that killed a U.S. contractor. A spokesman for the group last year praised that attack but denied the militia was responsible.

New Exhibit Dedicated to Enlisted Airmen Opens at USAF Museum

Jan. 4, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The National Museum of the U.S. Air Force in Dayton, Ohio—long renowned for its massive collection of aircraft and aviation history—turned its focus to the enlisted personnel who have fueled the service for 76 years for its latest feature, the Enlisted Force Exhibit.

The permanent exhibit took three years to create and features around 50 elements spread throughout four buildings and 10 galleries of the museum, each linked to relevant eras and artifacts.

Enlisted Maintainers exhibit in the Korean War Gallery of the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force. U.S. Air Force photo by Ty Greenlees

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass, the service’s top enlisted member, delivered a keynote address at the exhibit’s grand opening on Nov. 9, 2023.

“The men and women of our enlisted corps are not merely participants in the chronicles of our nation’s defense, but they are architects of history,” Bass said. “Our heritage is rooted in the ideals of integrity, service and excellence—a tapestry woven with the threads of sacrifice and valor.”

The exhibit includes dynamic galleries, such as the Enlisted Maintainers element in the Korean War Gallery and uniforms from 1918 to 2019 showcasing Airmen’s roles from a World War I mechanic to a Global War on Terrorism HALO Parachutist.

This grand display of the Enlisted Force stands in the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force’s Kettering Hall as a tribute to the backbone of the Air Force. The display shows the roles of Airmen past and present through photographs and video. (U.S. Air Force photo by Ty Greenlees)

The World War II Gallery also now includes the story of Staff Sgt. James Meredith, a trailblazing Black Airman who served in an all-white squadron, and the uniform worn by Sgt. Benjamin Fillinger, one of 15 Airmen from Wright-Patterson Air Force Base who transferred into the Space Force in 2020.

At the ceremony, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force John F. Bentivegna compared the young service to the museum itself.

“Today’s Space Force is small. It’s just like the museum when it started as an engineering study collection—very small,” Bentivegna said. “But Guardians are creating our Space Force history each and every day. And one hundred years from now, the Enlisted Exhibit in the National Museum of the U.S. Air and Space Force will be overflowing with that history that we’re making today.”

Visitors can also learn about the behind-the-scenes efforts of Enlisted Maintainers and the musical Ambassadors of the Air Force at the exhibit. David Tillotson III, the museum’s Director, emphasized the significance of preserving legacy of the Airmen in the building’s newest addition.

“This extensive and interactive new exhibit honors the critically important role of the enlisted force in the Department of the Air Force,” said Tillotson. “Museum personnel have worked tirelessly on this exhibit for three years to tell the stories of the highly skilled, trained, and talented enlisted force that has been the foundation of the daily operations of the U.S. Department of the Air Force from its early years as the U.S. Army Air Service to the modern Air and Space Force.”

Corporal Edward “Eddie” Ward’s leadership, talent, and technical skills played an essential part in creating American air power. U.S. Air Force photo by Ty Greenlees

Since 1907, enlisted Airmen have been the backbone of the branch, now making up nearly 80 percent of the Department of the Air Force, according to the museum. Showcasing technical prowess and professionalism, their role has evolved, becoming a diverse force with diverse responsibilities.

As of 2023, the Department of Defense has over 250,000 active-duty enlisted Airmen and more than 4,200 active-duty enlisted Guardians.

The National Museum of the U.S. Air Force, located at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, is the world’s largest military aviation museum with more than 350 aerospace vehicles and missiles across 19 acres of indoor space.

Bass Announces Departure Date as CMSAF, Reveals Advice for Her Successor

Jan. 4, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass’ tenure as top enlisted Airman will end March 8, when she’ll hand the reins over to Chief Master Sgt. David A. Flosi.

Bass announced her departure date during an AFA Warfighters in Action event on Jan. 4 as she detailed her priorities for her final few months in the position—including pay and compensation and health care.

“I’ve told my team, I said, we’re not talking about transition yet,” Bass noted. “But certainly it’ll come very fast on March 8 … and I couldn’t be more excited to pass the torch off to Chief Flosi.”

Bass also shared the advice she has given Flosi since he was announced as her successor and CMSAF 20 in December.

“Don’t read the comments,” Bass said she told Flosi. “Leadership can be tough, and everybody loves to throw out advice and give feedback. And some feedback’s helpful, some is not, but you can’t get caught up in in the comments, right? You’ve got to talk to people in the ring. You’ve got to be aware, I think that’s goodness. But don’t get caught up in the comments. You’ve got to lead. Leadership is not a popularity contest. Leading, by the way, is easy when nothing’s going on. That is not the case today.”

Bass has frequently used Facebook to offer updates to the force and livestream discussions with senior department leaders. Early on in her tenure, there were several controversies involving her response to Facebook commenters, and she has warned about the effects of information warfare on Airmen.

Flosi, for his part, is not currently active on social media.

Bass also said she would tell Flosi to “stay focused” and find time to read every day, even if only for five minutes. Bass herself has shared several dozen books with Airmen through her “CMSAF Leadership Library,” and she told AFA president and CEO retired Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright that she is planning on adding to that list soon.

Among the new additions, Bass said, will be “Generation Z Unfiltered” and “We Don’t Want YOU, Uncle Sam,” two books that delve into the psychology of the youngest generation of Airmen currently serving.

Airmen’s Pay Is Bass’ Top Issue for Her Final Few Months as Chief

Jan. 4, 2024 | By David Roza

Pay and compensation is top of mind for Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force JoAnne S. Bass as she enters the final two months of her tenure as the service’s 19th top enlisted Airman. The Air Force’s current models and policies for determining pay and compensation are outdated and must be reformed to attract top talent in the technical skill sets that the future Air Force will need, she said.

“Nobody joins the military to get rich, but they have to be compensated appropriately,” Bass said Jan. 4 in a livestreamed discussion with Air & Space Forces Association president and CEO retired Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright.

“If you look at today’s pay and compensation model, specifically the pay chart, it really hasn’t evolved since 1949,” she added.

In particular, Bass suggested new mechanisms may be required to attract technical specialists who may be overqualified for the junior enlisted ranks at which most Airmen begin their careers.

“If you grab someone who’s 28 years old and they already have all of the certifications in the skill that we’re going to do, we’ve got to give them some profession of arms training and skill sets. But do they come in as an E-1 or E-2 or E-3? I don’t know,” she said.

The Air Force has a working group analyzing those ideas and others related to quality of life in the service, such as health care and child care. Bass’ comments come about halfway through the two-year 14th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, where the Department of Defense checks to make sure service members’ pay, benefits, and allowances keep up with socioeconomic changes.

“Today’s military family looks different than it did 30 years ago,” Bass said. “You have more dual-working parents, more dual-military parents, more single parents.”

Those social changes coincide with rising prices for housing and basic needs which are straining the wallets of many Airmen around the world. Bass and other senior Air Force leaders have stated in the past that the military needs a better way to keep up with inflation and balance personnel pay with modernization.

Bass suggested that “unconstrained” out-of-the-box thinking may be required to achieve those goals and keep pace with civilian jobs. Even fast food restaurants and national chain retail stores provide health and dental care today for entry-level employees, she said, which means the Air Force has to offer a competitive package.

“Again … nobody joins the military to get rich, at least I don’t think so. But we can’t be too far off when it comes to what is being offered in the economy today in America,” she added.

More specifics may be available at the AFA Warfare Symposium from Feb. 12-14, where senior leaders will also share more details on the Air Force-wide effort to optimize the force for near-peer conflict, Bass said.

Besides compensation, Bass also emphasized child care and health care as key areas in need of modernization. The need for child care facilities today is stronger than it was several decades ago because there are more dual-working parents and dual-military parents. However, military facilities and their civilian counterparts have a hard time attracting providers, especially considering the odd hours that military parents often have to work.

Bass acknowledged that Air Force base commanders “are doing phenomenal things” to address child care needs at a local level. Overall, child care capacity has increased over the past year, there are more family child care providers and fewer families on waiting lists, she said.

“But we’ve got to take a look as a Department of Defense at ‘how do we increase the capacity even more so that our service members can focus on the mission and know that their children will be taken care of?’”

The CMSAF plans on discussing these and other quality of life issues with lawmakers later this month as she and other senior military enlisted leaders press for more support for child development centers, youth centers, and other personnel programs.

“We’ve made a promise to America’s moms and dads that if your son or daughter joins the military, we will provide a roof over their head, we will feed them, we will take care of our national treasures,” Bass said. “And that starts with pay and compensation, health care, child care, all of those.”

USAF Proposes Upgrades on Guam to Host Dozen Singaporean F-15s for Training

Jan. 3, 2024 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

Andersen Air Force Base on Guam is preparing for potential infrastructure upgrades to host up 12 Singaporean F-15 fighters, following a 2019 agreement between the two nations.

The proposal, as detailed in a December release, would see around 209 acres of Guam reshaped over the next three to seven years into developed sites or maintaining greenery post-construction. The upgraded site aims to provide training facilities for the Republic of Singapore Air Force’s F-15SG, Boeing’s advanced version of the F-15E Strike Eagle.

The Department of the Air Force release also noted that the facilities “could support … other DAF, service component, and partner nation aircraft or missions operating from Andersen AFB now or in the future.”

In terms of the Pentagon’s strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China, the proposal is mostly about building a relationship with the RSAF as a counterbalance to Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, J. Michael Dahm of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“Guam is the closest airbase where the USAF can build this bilateral training relationship and a level of interoperability with the RSAF, so if called upon in a crisis in East Asia, the Singapore Air Force and the U.S. Air Force can work together effectively,” Dahm said.

The U.S. and Singapore routinely interact through military exercises, and their air forces conducted their annual three-week air training in November 2023, involving fighters from both nations.

Singapore’s history of military training in Guam dates back to the 1990s. Putting F-15s at Andersen would mark the fourth RSAF detachment on U.S. soil—F-16s are at Luke Air Force Base, Ariz., F-15s are at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, and AH-64 Apache helicopters are in Marana, Ariz.

The Guam construction proposal is grounded in the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding for the RSAF Training Detachment in Guam. According to the MOU, Anderson will host RSAF F-16s and airborne early warning aircraft for training in the future as well.

Shifting training to Guam would benefit the RSAF by ensuring operational readiness and facilitating swift redeployment when necessary.

“Singapore has a modern, Western Air Force by all standards, but they don’t have vast terrains like China or the United States such as the Gulf of Alaska where the Air Force can do training,” Dahm said. “They also don’t have a peer air force they can train with on a regular basis.”

At Andersen, the RSAF would have access to American equipment and fighters, Western technology, maintenance, logistics, ammunition storage, and an opportunity to train alongside American Airmen—all. while remaining close to home, Dahm explained.

“Singapore fighters could train with the U.S. Air Force on the Indian Ocean side of the Strait of Malacca, or on the South China Sea side of the Strait of Malacca, when the USAF deploys to Singapore, Thailand, or other Southeast Asian nations.” Dahm said. But even then, the airspace around the Strait of Malacca is “some of the most crowded airspace in the world,” he added.

The Andersen proposal includes enhancements such as airfield pavements, a new hangar, maintenance buildings, fuel systems, fencing, roads, parking, and stormwater management. The Department of Air Force will evaluate the proposal’s environmental impact through an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in line with the National Environmental Policy Act. This includes consulting with resource agencies, conducting surveys, and assessing potential impacts. The Draft EIS is due in mid-2024, with the Final EIS and a decision expected in early to mid-2025.

Air Force Gives Raytheon $345 Million to Build 1,500+ New StormBreaker Guided Bombs

Jan. 3, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force awarded Raytheon, an RTX unit, a $345 million contract to build more than 1,500 Small Diameter Bomb II/GBU-53/B munitions—called “StormBreaker” by the company—for the Air Force, Navy, and Foreign Military Sales users, under the 10th production lot. The work is to be completed by August 2028.

The SDB II is a smart bomb with pop-out wings that can be carried on BRU-55 and BRU-61 multi-weapon racks and increase the loadout and targets struck per sortie by fighter aircraft. Certified for use on the Air Force F-15E and Navy F/A-18E/F and being integrated with the joint-service F-35, the weapon is planned to be fitted eventually for nearly all U.S. fixed-wing strike aircraft and bombers.

The munitions will be made primarily at Raytheon’s Tucson, Ariz., facilities. The contract also covers containers and training gear.

The Pentagon’s fiscal 2024 budget request asked for 920 SDB IIs for the Air Force, down from 1,214 in fiscal 2023 and 976 in fiscal 2022. The Air Force has also shifted from buying the bulk of its Small Diameter Bombs from the first iteration, made by Boeing, to the StormBreaker weapon made by Raytheon.

The total planned acquisition of StormBreaker, according to budget documents, is 21,610 for the Air Force and 5,800 for the Navy. The Jan. 3 contract also covers Foreign Military Sales to Finland, Germany, Italy, and Norway, collectively worth $2.1 million. The contract includes $101.4 million from the Air Force’s fiscal 2023 budget and $183.1 million for the fiscal 2024 budget.

Production of StormBreaker was paused in 2019 due to a parts quality issue. Raytheon retrofitted the weapons built to that point and production resumed in 2020.

Air Force budget documents say the service’s goals for the weapon in 2024 include a technology refresh to change out “obsolete seeker components.”

The 204-pound SDB II has a multimode seeker—including millimeter wave, imaging infrared, and a semi-active laser—with a 105-pound multimode shaped blast/fragmentation warhead. It has the ability to prioritize targets autonomously, and its GPS/INS guidance allows it to be retargeted after the weapon’s release.

Stormbreaker is described by the company as a “network-enabled” munition. Its wings provide a standoff glide capability of more than 45 miles, according to Raytheon, reducing the launch aircraft’s exposure to enemy defenses. The precision weapon can work in all weather or obscurants and can engage moving targets as well.

The F-15E can carry up to 28 SDB IIs by using seven BRU-61A racks, each with four weapons. With modifications, SDB II racks will be able to fit inside the F-22 and F-35. The weapon is 69 inches long. Raytheon reported that StormBreaker completed 28 test drops in 2023, across all user platforms.

The first operational use of the SDB II was with the 391st Fighter Squadron in 2021, which employed four of the weapons against moving ground vehicles at the Utah Test and Training Range in a Weapon Systems Evaluation Program (WSEP) test.

US, Allies Warn Houthis of ‘Consequences’ if Ship Attacks Continue

Jan. 3, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. and its allies issued a firm warning to Houthi rebels in Yemen on Jan. 3, telling the group to stop attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or face “consequences.”

“The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways,” read a joint statement from the U.S. and 12 other countries.

As of Jan. 2, the Iran-backed Houthis have carried out 24 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since Nov. 19, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). The 25-person crew of one ship has been held captive since November.

The U.S. wanted to “very clearly send a warning to the Houthis,” a senior administration official told reporters on Jan. 3.

The Houthis have attacked commercial ships with drones, small boat raids, and missiles, including the “first time anti-ship ballistic missiles have been used anywhere, let alone against commercial ships,” according to the senior administration official.

The U.S. has defended against Houthi attacks with fighter jets and Navy missile defense systems. British and French ships have also shot down drones launched by the Houthis.

The U.S. military has prepared strike options against Houthis should the Biden administration decide to use force against targets in Yemen, according to U.S. officials.

British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps has said the U.K. is “willing to take direct action” if attacks continue.

“I would not anticipate another warning” before the U.S. might take more forceful action, the U.S. senior administration official added.

The U.S. military has used force against the Houthis recently in self-defense. On Dec. 31, four small boats fired at U.S. Navy helicopters coming to the aid of a commercial vessel under attack. The helicopters fired back, killing members of the group and sinking three of the boats, according to the senior administration official and CENTCOM. The Houthis said 10 of its members were killed in that incident. The senior administration official said the Houthis might have been trying to hijack the vessel or damage it in a suicide bombing.

“Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing,” the statement from the governments of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom warned. “Let our message now be clear: we call for the immediate end of these illegal attacks and release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews.”

An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council was held Jan. 3 to discuss the Houthi threat. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. spoke with his U.K. counterpart Adm. Sir Tony Radakin on Jan. 3 and “discussed the ongoing illegal Houthi attacks,” according a readout of the call from the Joint Staff.

“I think it demonstrates that the U.S., and its partners, are trying to operate in a responsible manner but that there is a limit to the behavior they are willing to accept,” retired Army Gen. Joseph L. Votel, who commanded CENTCOM from 2016-2019, told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The Houthis have launchers for missiles and drones, coastal radars, and weapons storage facilities that could be targeted should the U.S. or other nations decide to use force.

The U.S. launched a limited salvo of cruise missiles at three coastal radar sites in Yemen in 2016 in response to attacks on ships by the Houthis during Votel’s time as CENTCOM commander.

“The message is measured, as I would expect, but clearly highlights that there are consequences associated with continued attacks and that these nations will hold malign actors accountable,” said Votel, a distinguished senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. He added that the statement “highlights the importance of leveraging all forms of national power, in this case diplomatic and informational, to put pressure on the Houthis and their Iranian backers.”

Iran and the so-called Axis of Resistance of groups aligned with it have launched attacks in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. But some U.S. officials and regional security experts say the Houthis are more unpredictable and hardline than other Iranian-backed groups.

Vessels are at particular risk near Yemen because they must use Bab el-Mandeb strait to cross between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a critical chokepoint.

“Nearly 15 percent of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea, including 8 percent of global grain trade, 12 percent of seaborne-traded oil, and 8 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade,” the joint statement noted.

The U.S. launched the multinational Operation Prosperity Guardian in December to help defend against Houthi attacks. American F/A-18 fighters from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier have shot down Houthi drones. At times, U.S. Air Force fighters have been active over the Red Sea, a senior U.S. defense official said. The U.S. has also been known to operate MQ-9 drones off the coast of Yemen, and the U.S. and U.K. have flown P-8 maritime surveillance planes in the region in the past.

“Especially when it comes to maritime domain awareness, airpower is always a significant contributor to that,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said Dec. 21.

The Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea are connected by the Suez Canal, but commercial shippers have been forced to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope off the southern coast of Africa, causing significant delays and costs to the global economy.

“These attacks threaten innocent lives from all over the world and constitute a significant international problem that demands collective action,” the joint statement said. “We remain committed to the international rules-based order and are determined to hold malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks.”

How the Air Force Can Avoid or Mitigate Another Personnel Funding Shortfall

Jan. 3, 2024 | By David Roza

It was the summer Permanent Change of Station (PCS) season, and the Air Force had run out of personnel funding, leaving about 27,000 people temporarily stranded overseas. Some Airmen and their families could not move back stateside until well after the start of the new school year.

“It will have an effect on recruiting patterns and retention,” an Air Force general said at the time. “It has implications for the morale of our force. And it constitutes one of the most significant challenges to face Air Force leaders[.]”

Though this story may sound like the personnel funding shortfall in July 2023, it actually took place in 1986 amid similar circumstances. Congress at the time wanted to reduce the federal deficit through budget cuts. Those cuts, combined with increased travel costs, per diem benefits, and higher-than-expected retention levels, left the Air Force short of cash for PCS moves. The funding issues continued in 1987, where the Air Force was short $478 million in military personnel appropriation (MPA).

“Reprogramming of other Air Force dollars into the MPA will be required to avoid actions with drastic mission and personnel implications,” Lt. Gen. Thomas Hickey, then-deputy chief of staff for personnel at Headquarters Air Force, wrote in a 1987 op-ed. “We have a significant funding problem that poses a challenge to Air Force leadership at every level.”

Fast-forward to July 2023, a time when inflation, higher-than-expected PCS costs and retention again left the Air Force short of personnel funding. The branch delayed some PCS moves and stopped awarding new bonuses, leaving many Airmen and their families in limbo. After a few weeks, The Air Force reinstated bonus programs and processed PCS orders when Congress finally approved the Pentagon’s request to reprogram personnel funds, but the experience anguished many families.

“Plans to sell or buy a house or car, enroll children in schools and daycares, transition jobs for spouses and partners, or deliver babies in known or planned locations evaporated under the PCS pause,” wrote RAND political scientist Kelly Atkinson in a July 31 commentary.

The pause was particularly disruptive for dual-military couples where one member was approved to move while their spouse was delayed, wrote Atkinson, an Air Force reservist. Dual-military couples or members facing increased financial hardship often had to seek exceptions to policy to resolve their situation.

“When policy creates situations where people are exceptions, and not included in policy, then that can have impacts on sense of belonging and sense of motivation for recruitment and retention,” Atkinson told Air & Space Forces Magazine, noting that her views do not necessarily represent those of the Air Force or the Department of Defense.

Personnel funding is a recurring issue in the Air Force, and the unpredictable nature of Congressional funding means that the Air Force cannot eliminate the possibility of a shortfall.

However, according to one group of experts, the Air Force can reduce the likelihood of a shortfall by more closely integrating policy owners, forecasting outcomes through the use of policy games, and measuring the effects of policy changes with better data.

When a shortfall does occur, the service must also improve its guidance to families to mitigate its impact, Atkinson said, “rather than leaving them with the burden of adjustment in complex circumstances.”

What Is MILPERS?

The Air Force military personnel (MILPERS) budget includes pay and allowances, health care and retirement pay accruals, PCS travel, and other funding that goes towards running people programs, RAND researchers explained in a 2023 report.

In fiscal 2021, the MILPERS budget was about $36 billion, more than 20 percent of the Air Force’s total $168 billion budget. Between 2000 and 2021, spending on active-duty personnel grew at an average rate of 3.3 percent a year, RAND found, faster than the overall economy’s price growth of 1.9 percent a year.

Pay raises mandated by Congress drive a large portion of MILPERS, RAND senior operations researcher and retired Air Force veteran Lisa Harrington told Air & Space Forces Magazine. Having a large MILPERS budget helps retain talent, but the tradeoff is that the Air Force does not have as much flexibility for modernizing and responding to operational demands.

Reducing MILPERS is a painful calculation where planners must either shrink the size of the force or cut the cost per Airman. Some levers include reducing or delaying accessions, accelerating people out of the service, slowing promotion rates, and shifting responsibilities from officers to enlisted Airmen. There is no “correct” solution, wrote RAND researchers, only tradeoffs between priorities.

“This is a crippling problem,” they wrote. “The workforce is the foundation for readiness, yet the [Department of the Air Force] … must maintain fiscal flexibility to meet other immediate and future needs.”

finance — U.S. Airman 1st Class Leonid Soubbotine, 23rd Wing Public Affairs specialist, fills out an in-processing sheet at Moody Air Force Base, Georgia, June 21, 2023. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Whitney Gillespie)

Better Data, Better Integration

Part of the problem is a lack of data. For example, the Air Force often lacks accessible information on the impact of past bonuses or incentive pays on accessions and retention.

“I can’t tell if a really big bonus offered 10 years ago to people working with computers was effective, because I can’t go back and see if the person who was offered the bonus got out or stayed,” Harrington said. “We really do need to be capturing the decision space of the individual Airman in the work we do.”

Even with better data, service officials are not as closely integrated as they could be when it comes to forming personnel policies. For example, Harrington explained that there is an Air Force policy area which calculates special pays and bonuses in order to retain a certain number of Airmen with important skill sets. There is another policy area planning out how many new recruits the Air Force should bring in every year.

But those two programs are not always on the same page.

“Generally speaking, those policy areas are relatively disconnected,” Harrington said. “In our reports, we call for bringing those people responsible for human capital policies together to talk about this in one big group, because there are second order effects across all of these policy changes.”

Force protection is one example of an operational decision with secondary effects on MILPERS. Security Forces is the largest career field in the Air Force, so a decision to expand or reduce base protection could have a large ripple effect on the overall MILPERS budget.

“If you change the way you operate, you may have to change the personnel that you need,” Harrington said. “Are our ops, planning, and logistics thinking about the manpower implications and the MILPERS implications of the decisions they make?”

Money Games

In a “whole of Air Force” experiment, RAND invited Air Force officers, enlisted Airmen, and civilians from across the service to take part in a workforce futures policy game. Games are well suited to tackle complex problems where no single planner has complete knowledge of a system, researchers wrote.

“Even prior to conducting the game, the exercise of defining inputs, outcomes, and metrics with senior leaders and stakeholders from the Air Staff was tremendously informative,” they said. “As explained by one stakeholder, although the USAF does not control annual changes in basic pay, results from the game could be used to make a more informed argument to Congress for reforming how annual adjustments are calculated.”

When stakeholders work together, it should improve the efficiency of MILPERS policies and reduce the risk of a shortfall, Harrington said. Better integration might also help the department prepare for what to do in the case of a shortfall, which could better inform guidance for service members.

Better Guidance

Even the best-laid plans can be upended by politics. This past summer, the personnel funding shortfall was exacerbated by a dispute between lawmakers about whether to locate U.S. Space Command headquarters in Alabama or Colorado. When contingencies arise, the Air Force needs to be better prepared to communicate next steps for Airmen and their families, said Atkinson.

“Leadership is key, and the Air Force could leverage this challenge as an opportunity to demonstrate its dedication to caring for Airmen and their families despite structural limitations like budget shortfalls,” she wrote.

The 2023 shortfall had a disproportionate effect on female service members, who make up a higher percentage of dual-military marriages compared to active-duty male service members, Atkinson wrote. The political scientist witnessed the confusion and frustration her fellow service members faced in online forums where they tried to help each other navigate the PCS delay. For Atkinson, the experience reinforced the importance of diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts in the service.

“If you have those members in the room who say, ‘I’ve experienced this, I have a joint spouse career,’ or ‘I’ve utilized childcare, and I know about the gaps,’ then they can incorporate that perspective into policy, which will then better reach diverse elements of the population,” she said.

Atkinson pointed out then-Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Brown’s comment before the Senate Armed Services Committee that “the spouse network is alive and well, and the spouses will compare notes” about the shortfall. If senior leaders have a better sense for the hoops that Airmen have to jump through when a shortfall occurs, perhaps they can craft better guidance that won’t leave Airmen feeling adrift the way many did last summer, she said.

“We need to continue paying attention to those human experiences within this institution, whether that’s through holding town hall sessions, coffee talks,” or other forums, Atkinson said. “More of that is good, because it connects policy makers with the individuals who are then living the outcome of the policies that they set.”

New F-15EX Fighters—Nos. 3 and 4—Arrive at Eglin for Testing

Jan. 2, 2024 | By John A. Tirpak

The third and fourth airframes of the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II have arrived at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., for testing, the Air Force said Dec. 30. To hold the program schedule, six more need to be delivered before July.

The new aircraft, dubbed EX3 and EX4, arrived at Eglin on Dec. 20, the Air Force said. EX1, EX2, and EX4 belong to the 53rd Wing, while EX3 belongs to the 96th Test Wing.

The aircraft are undergoing both developmental and operational testing simultaneously, in order to compress the test schedule and get operational aircraft to the fleet as soon as possible. The first EX was delivered to Eglin in 2021. Flight test data acquired from similar aircraft sold under the Foreign Military Sales program has also been incorporated into the combined test effort.

The two new jets will also be earmarked for flight test, as will the next two. The last pair delivered under the first lot will be operational aircraft assigned to the Oregon Air National Guard, which runs the Air Force’s F-15 schoolhouse.

The first F-15EX to arrive at Eglin Air Force Base, in March of 2021 soars over the runway at Eglin AFB, Florida on Dec. 20, 2023. EX1 joined EX3 and EX4 in formation. U.S. Air Force photo by Ilka Cole

Aircraft Nos. 3 and 4 are about a year late, a situation Boeing has chalked up to supply line problems, manufacturing mistakes, and delays stemming from shifting some production work from South Korea to the U.S. The last four aircraft of the first lot are expected to be delivered by the spring.

According to the best-case, or “objective,” scenario under the F-15EX contract, the program was supposed to achieve initial operational capability (IOC) by last July, but did not do so. It can still meet the “threshold” or minimum-required IOC deadline of July 2024 if the Air Force takes delivery of eight total aircraft by then. If it doesn’t, the program will be in breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act, requiring certifications from the Secretary of Defense to continue.

Full operational capability is deemed to be 44 jets on duty, with all the necessary pilots, spares, and support gear. It is now expected in 2027.

In October, the Pentagon reported that the F-15EX will have a flyaway cost of $94 million per fighter, assuming the Air Force buys the planned 104 aircraft. That disclosure came after the service transitioned the EX from being a mid-tier acquisition program to a Major Defense Program, triggering a requirement to set baseline program costs in the quarterly Selected Acquisition Reports. The Air Force has considered F-15EX production as high as 188-200 airplanes, but seems to have settled on a force of 104 jets.

The $94 million price quoted by the service includes the Eagle Passive/Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) jamming and electronic warfare suite for the new-build jets. The initial unit cost estimate for the Eagle II was $80 million, comparable to the flyaway cost of the F-35.

In 2018, the Pentagon directed the Air Force to buy the F-15EX, deeming it the quickest way to replace worn-out F-15Cs with fresh iron. Most of the F-15C fleet is beyond its planned service life—with an average age of 38 years—and suffers from severe structural fatigue issues, deteriorating wiring, and parts obsolescence, resulting in speed, load, and maneuvering restrictions. The oldest USAF F-15C has been in service since 1979.

The EX—based on the F-15QA developed for Qatar—is a fly-by-wire aircraft with a powerful new processor and an additional two weapon stations versus the F-15E Strike Eagle, giving the Eagle II the largest combat load in the Air Force’s fighter inventory.

Like the E model, the EX has accommodation for two seats, but the Air Force plans to operate the fighter with a single pilot. The EX is also supposed to be equipped with conformal fuel tanks (CFTs), like the F-15E. The CFTs also have weapon stations, and besides extending range, offer more air-to-ground weapon hardpoints. However, the service did not fund the CFTs for the first 50 or so EX models, meaning they will be optimized for air-to-air missions. Service officials have said the first squadrons will likely be assigned to handle the homeland defense mission, rather than ground attack.

The first two F-15EXs have participated in a number of exercises; notably Northern Edge 2023 in May 2023, and Combat Hammer in August, where they fired live rounds in weapons tests.

Unlike the initial two jets, the new aircraft have cockpit pressure monitors and a warning system, along with a high frequency antenna for satellite communications. They also “feature a forward fuselage redesigned specifically for the U.S. Air Force,” a service release said.

The Air Force said the 2023 annual report from the Pentagon’s director of operational test “stated that the F-15EX is operationally effective, suitable, and survivable against threats likely to be encountered while performing its missions in threat environments.” It added that this report “allows the program to move into a new testing phase.”

The F-15EX has “met every challenge we’ve thrown at it,” and is “on the cusp of being ready for the warfighter,” according to Lt. Col. Christopher Wee, Operational Flight Program Combined Test Force commander.

The new deliveries pave the way “for not only the delivery of combat-coded aircraft to the U.S. Air Force, but also the continued development” of the aircraft, he said.

Lt. Col. Christopher Wee, the Operational Flight Program Combined Test Force commander and Maj. Matthew Russel, 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron, director of operations, piloted one of the newest F-15EXs to its new home at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida on Dec. 20, 2023. U.S. Air Force photo by Ilka Cole

The Air Force plans to buy 24 F-15EX in fiscal year 2025. Negotiations between Boeing and the Air Force on prices for production lots 2-4 were underway in the fall. The company has considered production rates between 24 and 48 aircraft per year at its St. Louis, Mo., facilities, and is marketing the EX to other countries with the Air Force’s blessing. Boeing has identified Indonesia as a possible EX customer, with an interest in buying 24 of the fighters.

Besides offering an in-kind replacement for the F-15C/D and E—performing both air superiority and ground attack missions after enemy air defenses have been beaten down—the EX is expected to serve as a standoff platform for launching long-range missiles and hypersonic weapons.