How At-Scale Agility Could Address Structural Challenges in the Department of the Air Force 

How At-Scale Agility Could Address Structural Challenges in the Department of the Air Force 

Sept. 19, 2023 | By Patrick Reardon

Many government organizations have pursued “agility” with mixed success, confusing whether it’s “nimbleness” or “a culture element.” According to McKinsey & Company, agility is objective, and attained by balancing stability and dynamism. Striking that balance can help unlock major opportunities for the Department of the Air Force.

“If you have only stability, then you might be a low functioning bureaucracy. If you have only dynamism, then you invite chaos,” says Kirk Rieckhoff, a senior partner and leader of McKinsey’s Defense practice. “Organizational agility refers to the ability to achieve the optimal balance between stability and flexibility. This involves having certain aspects of the operating model, such as personnel, processes, and budgets, remain stable. It also entails embracing dynamism and adaptability when it comes to task assignment, resource allocation, and responses to a changing environment. This equilibrium empowers leaders to adapt and remain nimble over time.”

McKinsey & Co. has been around for nearly a century and serves between 80 and 90 of the Fortune 100 companies at any given time. While best known for its work in the private sector, McKinsey has supported public sector organizations since WWII. Its work ranges from developing the first Presidential transition team to reorganizing federal science offices into NASA. McKinsey has served every executive cabinet agency in the U.S. and two thirds of U.S. States.

“[The Air Force] is such a large and distributed organization that getting things done quickly and at scale is a significant lift,” says Rachel Riley, a partner in McKinsey’s Public Sector and People/Organizational Performance practice. But she emphasizes there’s nothing about public sector organizations that make them intrinsically slow—in fact, she cites the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s rapid response to 9/11, FEMA’s reaction to Hurricane Katrina, and the Air Force’s rapid response to the COVID-19 pandemic as prime case studies of public sector agencies that have executed missions with tremendous agility during times of crisis. Achieving at-scale agility within the Air Force is no different.

“The Air Force was born out of innovation,” Rieckhoff says. “There’s a ton of opportunity for government to bring some of those great lessons from the way it works in an agile manner in times of crisis. It just requires a holistic, aspirational approach to do that in the day-to-day business of running the organization.”

According to Rieckhoff and Riley, McKinsey has helped private and public sector companies implement agility into their organizations to improve performance, productivity, organizational health, speed, and work design. Even large, highly regulated, technically complex companies have infused these agile concepts into the fabric of their organization and found success in improving speed, employee satisfaction, and performance.

The Air Force has a structure and set of processes that are well suited and optimized for a relatively slowly changing environment. The current competitive pressures on the Air Force, however, require a faster ability to adapt as highlighted by the CSAF’s Action Orders. To make agility happen today, it requires almost single-minded focus of the most senior leadership.

“The SECAF’s clear priority and laser focus on the operational imperatives are the best example of the level of effort required to make change happen in the Air Force today,” says Riley, though she adds that that’s an incredibly high bar to allow major change to happen. “Many of the Air Force’s pilots, pathfinders, and lighthouses get stuck in purgatory. Our research has found the way out is to reverse the approach. Rather than focusing on a great idea and scaling it across the Air Force, focus instead on a specific unit and apply all the ideas at once. Depots are a great example, or a flight line.”  

She also emphasizes the importance of personnel and upgrading existing talent within an organization to meet mission. She cites LEGO as a success story in this area. As covered in McKinsey’s new book Rewired, LEGO provides at-scale opportunities within its workforce to upskill their employee’s digital talents to empower a company-wide digital transformation.

McKinsey has found that mission-driven organizations have a special competitive advantage that plays a key role in finding that balance between structure and dynamism: the mission itself. 

“The most critical enabler for agility is a clear, inspiring mission that every member of the team identifies with and is working towards. Unfortunately, that inspiration can often get buried under the weight of unnecessarily complex processes and structures,” Rieckhoff says.  “But that’s also what gives me the most hope for the future of the Air Force … [as] an agile innovation engine for the next century of American security.”

USAF, Pentagon Take Steps to Make Sure Sentinel Hits Its Operational Service Date

USAF, Pentagon Take Steps to Make Sure Sentinel Hits Its Operational Service Date

Sept. 18, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force is accelerating some activities in its Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program in order to make sure it meets its “no fail” initial operational capability date of September 2030, Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante said last week.

“It wasn’t that we have to fix an IOC problem,” LaPlante said during a press conference during AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference Sept. 12. “It was [schedule] pressure. … We knew we had a sporty schedule to meet IOC.”

LaPlante directed the creation of an integrated master schedule to take account of development of the Sentinel missile, the construction of 450 launch silos, the command-and-control network to tie them together, and other elements critical to achieving the aggressive plan to have a minimal land-based nuclear deterrent ready to go in seven years.

“Everyone should look at what we’ve learned now” and how programs “can be smarter about doing [things that] potentially will save time later,” he said.

Concerns about delays to the LGM-35 Sentinel surfaced earlier this year after the release of a Government Accountability Office report that projected the program as being a year behind schedule, though with IOC still expected between April and June 2030, before the September 2030 deadline required by U.S. Strategic Command.

“Sentinel is behind schedule due to staffing shortfalls, delays with clearance processing, and classified information technology infrastructure challenges,” the GAO report said. “Additionally, the program is experiencing supply chain disruptions, leading to further schedule delays.”

Specifically, LaPlante said Sept. 12 there are long-lead items in the Sentinel program now expected to take two years to procure, whereas when the program was sketched out before the COVID-19 pandemic, the expectation was for six months.

“So I gave them authority to purchase them now,” LaPlante said. He has also urged the prototyping of Sentinel launch control centers, “now, earlier, so we can learn the lessons rather than wait until this later point,” he added.

Still other parts of the program are being addressed as well, LaPlante said, to ensure they’re ready when needed.

“Every program manager should be doing exactly this. This is what’s called active program management … that’s what we did,” LaPlante said.

There’s been no slip in the planned IOC date “because we’re trying to finish the integrated master schedule. And as we’ve been saying, the IOC is tight, and there’s no margin right now,” he acknowledged, while saying the Pentagon will learn more more about the likelihood of achieving IOC as “pull to the left” plans are implemented.

Northrop Grumman, the prime contractor for Sentinel, has been building facsimiles of Minuteman III silos and systems to smooth and accelerate the process of building or renovating them, Maj. Gen John P. Newberry, program executive officer for strategic systems, told reporters at a separate press conference.

“Currently, we have 450 launch facilities today in Minuteman, and the intent is to refurbish … all of them and place a Sentinel inside,” he said.

Newberry acknowledge the effort has been likened in scope and timeline to the construction of the interstate highway system, but said Northrop and its subcontractors have a good plan to accomplish the task.

“We’re also in construction right now, by the way, in terms of test infrastructure at Vandenberg [Air Force Base, Calif.], converting two, soon to be three, launch facilities,” Newberry said, which will help Northrop with the conversion process and lead to “early identification of issues.”

He also said LaPlante will consider opportunities to start construction earlier at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyo., the planned first operational site for Sentinel.

“And so we’re going to start with two launch facilities earlier than planned, and also launch centers, and do that at F.E. Warren,” Newberry said.

Starting earlier will also help the Air Force deal with the “uniqueness” of every missile base that will get the Sentinel, such as their geography and soil, he said.

Newberry acknowledged the civil engineering effort to build the silos is “a huge challenge. You think about weather, you think about roads. … I’m not trying to downplay that. This will be a sizable construction effort, but it’s getting to design and then [we] begin construction.”

Maj. Gen John Allen, head of the Air Force installations and mission support center, also said a new, streamlined process is being developed for the design and construction of the silos.

The Nuclear Weapons Center and Northrop will partner directly with the Army Corps of Engineers “to deliver this construction,” Allen said, a partnership that amounts to “essentially, a construction task force,” Allen said.

“It is considerably different than the 30 years that I’ve been watching construction in the Air Force. It is a big, big deal,” Allen said. “And I think it is going to get us that agility we need to do … a missile silo a week to get to 450.”

Competition Defines New Collaborative Combat Aircraft Program Now, But Not Forever

Competition Defines New Collaborative Combat Aircraft Program Now, But Not Forever

Sept. 18, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

The Air Force wants to keep the competition for its Collaborative Combat Aircraft program open for as long as possible. But rather than repeatedly and continuously reiterating the platform, the service will choose a contractor to take the winning elements and integrate them into a fighting system, leaders said at last week’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

“We will always have a continuous competition piece of this, but the government will not be” the system integrator, Brig. Gen. Dale White, program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft, said in a press conference at ASC.

The Air Force has programmed $5.8 billion for CCAs from fiscal 2024-2028, with the goal of fielding at least 1,000 of the unmanned, autonomous aircraft by the end of the decade. While White would not discuss the timeline or mechanics for releasing requests for proposals or choosing winning contractors, he did say an acquisition strategy exists for CCAs, and “we will eventually get to a place where we do a downselect to a vendor that … does the integration of the autonomy and has the vehicle and then the mission systems as well.”

Up until that point, there will be “this continuous loop of competition from the mission system perspective…[and] who brings the best capability from an autonomy perspective,” White said. Eventually, the acquisition strategy “tells us what the end product looks like.” He also emphasized the Air Force has not “closed the door” to any concepts yet.

Service leaders dropped a variety of hints about the CCA program without giving a detailed timeline for the program. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said it will be developed in “two increments.” The first will be a more basic version intended to quickly get airframes on the ramp, while a second version will be more complex and capable of more sophisticated missions.  

“The goal is not to have multiple variants that we have to try to maintain or sustain,” White explained. “There [are] still some traditional aspects of acquisition. The only difference here is we will keep … continuous competition” for mission systems.

There is not a specific target cost of CCAs yet, and White acknowledged that “there are absolutely some different cost points. But those cost points also represent capability. They represent size, they represent range, they represent all of those attributes.” The Air Force will be trading those attributes against each other.

The service is looking for “the sweet spot” between range, payload and capability, White said. There are many potential bidders on the program—White pointed to the AFA exhibit hall, brimming with “a very broad representation of vehicle capabilities,” especially in the field of artificial intelligence.

Scenes at the Tech Expo at the 2023 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at National Harbor, Maryland. Photo by Mike Tsukamoto/Air & Space Forces Magazine

Moreover, experimental versions—at least of some of the autonomy and AI elements—are already in the hands of testers who are exploring potential tactics and the ‘knee in the curve’ between cost and capability, he said. That interaction with operators will play a big role in winnowing down the field of entrants, as will production capacity.

“We have to take all that into consideration,” White said.

Brig. Gen. Chris Niemi, Air Combat Command’s director of plans, programs, and requirements, said another factor—and a big one driving the Air Force’s choices on CCAs is that the service expects to endure far more attrition in a future war than it has in the last 35 years. The F-15, he noted, was “able to rack up a 104-to-0 kill ratio,” and while he would “love to be able to maintain” that kind of lopsided dominance, “that’s just not the threat environment that we see.”

If “you’re going to experience more losses, we see great utility in having platforms” whose loss is more bearable than an F-35 with a pilot onboard, he said.

“Those are the types of tradeoffs that are being enabled,” he said.

Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter, in his own press conference, said CCAs will have to be built “in an entirely different scale” to achieve “affordable mass.” That means being designed from the start to be mass-produced.

While Kendall has said he sees CCAs as coming in at “a fraction” of the cost of an F-35, no senior leaders would bound that more tightly.

“It will not cost as much as F-35, but it’s also going to be simpler in design. And so that is core to our strategy, core to our efforts,” Hunter said. The cost versus capability tradeoff is “very much a part of the front-end process for how we get to CCA,” he said. “And it does require … discipline and how do we think about what you’re asking the platform to do to ensure that continues to be something you can produce effectively and affordably.”

Kendall told reporters that the “capabilities across the vendors that we’ve been engaged with and talk to [are] very robust and that leads to us feeling like we will be able to make rapid progress.”

What’s still unknown, Kendall said, is how many CCAs can effectively pair with a crewed aircraft. He said it will be “at least two” but has speculated that five may be the right number. Operational analysis shows the more CCAs a crewed airplane can manage, the better, he said, and the Air Force is looking for contractors that can enable that control element the most effectively.

Scenes at the Tech Expo at the 2023 Air, Space & Cyber Conference at National Harbor, Maryland. Photo by Mike Tsukamoto/Air & Space Forces Magazine
LOOK: Winners and Photos Released from William Tell Fighter Meet

LOOK: Winners and Photos Released from William Tell Fighter Meet

Sept. 18, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

The Air Force’s revived William Tell Air-to-Air Weapons Meet wrapped up last week, the first edition of the prestigious fighter competition in nearly 20 years—and a select group of Airmen walked away with some trophies. 

From Sept. 11-15, William Tell featured some of the best air crews from across the service testing their offensive and defensive skills against simulated enemy aircraft, while ground crews competed in loading weapons, aircraft maintenance, and intelligence operations. 

Fourteen different teams and individuals won awards at the meet’s closing ceremonies on Sept. 15 at the Air Dominance Center in Savannah, Ga. Air Combat Command identified the wings of the winners but declined to publicly identify individuals, citing operational security. 

The team awards included categories for the three types of aircraft competing—F-15, F-22, and F-35—as well as one—the Major Richard I. Bong Fighter Interceptor Trophy—for individual teams that demonstrated the best fighter integration across multiple platforms and systems: 

  • Major Richard I. Bong Fighter Interceptor Trophy: 3rd Wing (F-22s), 366th Fighter Wing (F-15Es), 388th and 419th Fighter Wings (F-35s) 
  • Lieutenant Colonel James H. Harvey III Top F-15 Wing Award: 104th Fighter Wing, Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass. 
  • Captain Eddie Rickenbacker Top F-22 Wing Award: 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. 
  • Brigadier General Robin Olds Top F-35 Wing Award: 158th Fighter Wing, Burlington Air National Guard Base, Vt. 
  • Colonel Jesse C. Williams Top Intel Tradecraft Wing Award: 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. 
  • Big I Task Force Top C2 Wing: 552nd Air Control Wing, Tinker Air Force Base, Okla. 
  • Chief Master Sergeant Argol “Pete” Lisse Maintenance Team Award: 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. 
  • Overall Weapons Load Competition: 104th Fighter Wing, Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass. 

The individual awards recognized the top crew chiefs and pilots from each aircraft type: 

  • Top F-15 Crew Chief: 366th Fighter Wing, Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho 
  • Top F-22 Crew Chief: 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. 
  • Top F-35 Crew Chief: 158th Fighter Wing, Burlington Air National Guard Base, Vt. 
  • F-15 Superior Performer: 104th Fighter Wing, Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass. 
  • F-22 Superior Performer: 3rd Wing, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska 
  • F-35 Superior Performer: 158th Fighter Wing, Burlington Air National Guard Base, Vt. 

Overall, the 1st Fighter Wing at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., emerged as the big winner from the competition, capturing four trophies.  

The 104th Fighter Wing at Barnes Air National Guard Base, Mass., also took home three wins, including the overall weapons load competition, a head-to-head contest against crews with other types of aircraft. That competition took place in front of a large crowd including distinguished visitors on Sept. 14. 

How HII is Refining Air Mobility Aircrew Training

How HII is Refining Air Mobility Aircrew Training

Sept. 18, 2023 | By Patrick Reardon

HII has provided increased training opportunities for Air Mobility Command’s aircrews under the Mobility Air Forces (MAF) Distributed Missions Operations (DMO) program and has set records for unit participation since the program’s inception.

Air Mobility Command awarded the $79 million task order under the Air Force’s Training Systems Acquisition III contract, marking the first time a Major Command DMO program was transitioned to a new contractor. Despite initial skepticism over the feasibility of transitioning a mature program to a new contractor, HII made the shift and AMC didn’t miss a beat. There were no breaks in service, and the warfighters continued training.

“It was a very large, distributed network that had to be re-instantiated, so we had to come in and rework the network architecture and bring in government off-the-shelf (GOTS) tools and new processes,” said Michael Aldinger, HII Mission Technologies vice president of U.S. Air Force Live, Virtual, Constructive (LVC) Training and Enterprise Portfolio. “We worked closely with the government customer to inform them of the different challenges we faced, and what we recommended for mitigation, which could be applied to the benefit of future DMO program awards.”

The goal under this program is “to train aircrew in a secure, realistic networked environment while reducing risk and operating cost.” HII has achieved consistent success since task order award. 

“In March, HII trained more aircrews in the Mobility Air Force mission profile tactical events than at any point in the program’s history,” said Aldinger. 

HII’s operations team is smaller than MAF’s previous DMO contractor. Aldinger chalks their success up to the importance of competition within the defense industrial base and HII Mission Technologies’ deep expertise with enterprise training solutions.

“I attribute this success to our enterprise methodology and experience in running other distributed mission operation programs for the DOD,” he said. “HII worked across these other programs to identify the best of breed solutions which enabled us to maximize efficiencies and continue to train warfighters on the MAF DMO network. This was a huge success story for the command and HII.”

Operating under AMC Commander General Mike Minihan’s intent to ready forces for any possible threat, HII provides the MAF DMO program with the virtual side of mobility training at a pivotal moment. MAF’s full-spectrum live training exercises—like Mobility Guardian 2023 this summer—involved thousands of Airmen.

“You’ve got to expect not everyone can train in that large exercise,” says Aldinger. “We provide those aircrews an opportunity for very similar training as provided in the Mobility Guardian exercise, so they can train as they fight. We’re focused on China as the National Defense Strategy’s identified pacing challenge—we’ve developed the first four integrated Pacific theater scenarios for the program.”

With one year on the MAF DMO program under their belt, HII is already looking ahead to the next challenges faced by the program. Aldinger identifies virtual air refueling as a key next focus.

“That is really [why] the program was conceived in 2011,” Aldinger said. “It was about how we train aircrews with virtual air refueling. The Air Force could potentially save hundreds of millions of dollars if distributed virtual air refueling is achieved.”

Aldinger adds that HII Mission Technologies’ non-proprietary, enterprise solutions provide the secret sauce to these implementations and support their continued success, particularly through their development of government off-the-shelf (GOTS) tools that can be applied to the MAF program and across MAJCOMs and Services. Readily available common tools and processes are central to achieving the improved interoperability and reduced costs that the Services require.

“Our focus isn’t just HII solution’s,” said Aldinger. “We go across services to identify the best of breed solutions. I think this is something AMC appreciates. As an example, AMC is working with HII and the Navy to look at cross-domain solutions that can be used in the Coalition Virtual Guardian events. This approach can [rapidly] bring in coalition partners to train during these exercises.”

Learn more more about HII’s LVC capabilities.

Bentivegna Succeeds Towberman, ‘Has Big Shoes to Fill’ as as Space Force’s Top Enlisted

Bentivegna Succeeds Towberman, ‘Has Big Shoes to Fill’ as as Space Force’s Top Enlisted

Sept. 17, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

For the first time ever, the title of Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force changed hands Sept. 15, as Roger A. Towberman retired and passed the mantle on to John F. Bentivegna in a ceremony at Joint Base Andrews, Md. 

Towberman became the Space Force’s top enlisted member in April 2020, and played an instrumental role in forming the rudiments of a new military service under Chiefs of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond and Gen. B. Chance Saltzman. His contributions to USSF’s foundational cultural touchstones were many, from unique uniforms to fitness to its unique approach to personnel management. 

“He shaped the character, values, and culture of the Space Force and guided Gen. Raymond as they built the Space Force from the time they were the only two members,” said Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall during the ceremony. “’Toby’ has now helped guide the second Chief of Space Operations, Gen. Saltzman and a new Secretary of the Air Force, as we work together to build on the foundation that he and Gen. Raymond started. His contributions have been literally unprecedented and without parallel. Chief Bentivegna, you have some big shoes to fill.” 

With Towberman’s leadership and advice, the Space Force has: 

Along the way, Towberman earned a reputation as a passionate, engaging leader, happy to interact with Guardians on internet forums like Reddit and known to pepper his speeches with self-deprecating jokes, touching personal reflections, and philosophical musings on compassionate leadership and choosing a growth mindset. 

All were on full display in his retirement speech—he thanked a long list of mentors, colleagues, and family members, becoming particularly emotional when acknowledging his wife, Rachel Rush, and urging Guardians to push forward in developing the service. 

“The world will never prepare you for the task of changing it,” Towberman said. “Change comes from somewhere else. Change comes from who you are. You already know who that is. You don’t need us to tell you. You don’t need us to build you. You need to be you. You need to remember why you raised your hand. You need to remember what you are moving towards, because that’s the Space Force that we’re supposed to have. And if you let what we did yesterday keep that from you, that’s on you.” 

Towberman also praised his successor, saying “I couldn’t imagine handing over this very important project I’ve been working on to anybody else.” 

Bentivegna and Towberman have known each other for years, bringing very different military backgrounds to their roles. Towberman started in the Air Force as a cryptologic linguist and intelligence analyst flying on RC-135s, Bentivegna was trained as a maintainer, before spending most of his career in space operations. 

That gives him an advantage Towberman didn’t have. “I’ve been in the space business for the preponderance of my career,” Bentivegna told reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference a few days before taking on the CMSSF job. “So as I go out and advise Gen. Saltzman and have a chance to engage with Guardians, something I want to try and leverage, which may be a little bit of a different messaging point from Chief Towberman, is some of the time I spent doing space operations as an Airman in the Air Force.   

“Chief Towberman had that broad [experience] working within the Air Force,” said Bentivegna, known to many as B9, in reference to the letters in his last name. “So what he’s laid out from a broader perspective and now me now coming in with my space understanding, I think is going to put the service in the right place.” 

Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force Roger Towberman and John F. Bentivegna at the Air & Space Forces Association’s 2023 Air, Space & Cyber Conference on September 12, at National Harbor, Maryland. Photo by Mike Tsukamoto/Air & Space Forces Magazine

Bentivegna reflected on his early years in uniform, when he was a “bit of a knucklehead,” and as a “late bloomer” who came to recognize his ability to lead and work only after time on the job—a descriptor Towberman has used for himself. B9 credited his wife and several professional mentors for helping him develop and mature, and pledged to work on behalf of Guardians to see they get the training and skills needed to succeed. 

“The space domain has evolved from a benign environment,” Bentivegna said. “The intentions of several state actors remain unclear, and the unwanted threat of great power conflict is real. To successfully compete in this domain, we demand your willingness to learn and think outside the box, make uncomfortable decisions, and demonstrate a bias for action. We need you to be comfortable with the unknown and cultivate a service where change is not a distraction or a disadvantage.” 

At the AFA conference, Bentivegna said he’d spend his first 90 days listening to Guardians and Airmen at commands worldwide, taking note of what he learns and using that to shape an agenda for the time that follows. 

“I have an opportunity to gather with the senior enlisted leaders in the Space Force and the Airmen who are assigned to the Space Force this week, and I’m going to listen,” Bentivegna said. “‘Hey, what’s going on in the field? The programs and policy we’re working towards, what are the ones that we’ve got to get it across the finish line and need to advocacy within the building? What are the ones that we need to continue to look at?’” 

F-35 Program Manager: Full-Rate Decision Now Expected in Early 2024, But May Be Moot

F-35 Program Manager: Full-Rate Decision Now Expected in Early 2024, But May Be Moot

Sept. 15, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Milestone C for the F-35 fighter—the point at which operational testing is complete and the Pentagon’s acquisition chief can greenlight “full rate” production—is likely to come in early 2024, Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael J. Schmidt, F-35 program executive officer, told Air & Space Forces Magazine in a recent interview.

But in many ways, “full rate” is moot, as the program is already producing at near its maximum capacity.

“I’m cautiously optimistic we’re going to get through it … early next year,” Schmidt said. “I had said I wanted it done by December. I think the [Initial Operational Test and Evaluation] will be done by then.”

But “there’s a lot of cost estimating” that also has to happen, he added.

A major hangup in finishing IOT&E—and the System Design and Development phase, which has been underway for more than 20 years—is integrating the F-35 with the Joint Simulation Environment. That effort is progressing apace, Schmidt said, and he offered praise to Naval Air Systems Command, which is in charge of it.

The JSE is a kind of wargaming model that calculates how a particular platform—in this case, the F-35—will fare in an all-up war against a peer adversary, and how tweaking the numbers of platforms will affect the outcome of a campaign, in search of a “sweet spot” mix of platforms, munitions, and other capabilities. The JSE was identified as the last big hurdle to achieve Milestone C—and was a late add to the program—several years ago.  

The JSE integration “is going really well, so far,” he said.

Additionally, there needs to be new cost estimates, Schmidt said. Generating a new program cost estimate is a challenge because the JPO has to predict “development, production, sustainment across the board through 2088,” he said; the F-35 is the only program out of “hundreds” he’s ever worked on that has to predict upgrades, inflation, and operating costs through the last item’s retirement date.

Included are “estimates for development in the 2050s and … all this sustainment” and “things you haven’t thought of yet—future programs that have not yet been appropriated or started,” he said.

That cost estimate will be available when the Pentagon releases its program Selected Acquisition Reports this fall.

“When people talk about the very big numbers in this program, those are the big numbers that they’re talking about,” Schmidt said, and why the F-35 is derided as being so costly. No other program has had to project lifecycle costs that far into the future, which is inherently uncertain.

Schmidt observed that in attempting to finish the System Design and Development phase, the F-35 program office has been “spending human resources—tons of human resources—looking backwards, focusing on that process to close out SDD, versus looking forward to all of the things that we need to do in this program.”

That, he said, imposes a demand on limited numbers of personnel, who have to look “in the wrong direction. It’s not that it’s not important that we close it out; we do have to close it out. But it … doesn’t add a lot for this program,” said Schmidt

Once SDD is wrapped up, it will free up people and resources, Schmidt noted. The JSE is “operating at an old version of our operational flight program software, because it has to meet the criteria for IOT&E,” Schmidt said. “As soon as we get done with the IOT&E testing in support of Milestone C, we are going to focus Lockheed and the JSE team on getting that software up to the latest software that the jet has. So that is one huge advantage of getting through Milestone C and, and the full rate production decision.”

The software being evaluated for Milestone C “doesn’t take into account the current version of software that is flying in the jets around the world today. But the sooner we get to that, the better,” Schmidt said.

Asked if declaring the F-35 ready for full-rate production is effectively moot, since the fighter is already being produced at near its maximum rate, Schmidt acknowledged that “we’re already at a rate of 156-ish a year. We haven’t built that many yet [in a year], but that’s the rate that we’re at contractually.

“So I agree.”

tyndall f-35
An Airman guides in an F-35 flown by 325th Fighter Wing commander Col. George Watkins shortly after landing at Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla. Aug. 1, 2023. Air & Space Forces Magazine photo by David Roza

The goal for the coming years is to keep annual quantities “similar to where we’re at. The maximum production rate is about 156 a year. That’s actual deliveries in a calendar year,” but will fluctuate lot by lot, he said.

Negotiations are underway for Lots 18 and 19. There’s no time limit looming to conclude those negotiations, Schmidt said, and he declined to predict when the JPO and Lockheed will reach a “handshake” deal.

“We’re in the middle of negotiations with Lockheed right now, working through an enormous number of things in in those conversations,” he said.

For the Air Force, F-35s have come in at about $80 million per tail in recent years. Asked if the days of low-cost F-35s are over—given the effects of inflation and the fact that the Block 4 adds some 80 new capabilities, Schmidt declined to offer a prediction.

“As you can imagine, we have a budget and you know, we can only afford what we can negotiate. So, those things all play into the conversation,” he said. “Certainly … the world in which we’re living is definitely charged with inflation from previous years.”

After full-rate production is declared, Lot 20 may be the first official multi-year contract for the F-35.

“We are having those discussions and whether it’s a multi-year or a multi-lot buy, I am looking forward to talking with the Department about that,” Schmidt said.

“We have a good model to show this—it is very important for the U.S. and our partners to invest in what we call Economic Order Quantity funding,” said Schmidt. “So, funding upfront to allow our industry team to make smart decisions in buying forward or locking-in” prices on materials or labor.

“So to me, whether it’s a multi-year contract or a multi-lot contract, the huge benefit of that is in our ability to garner support for EOQ funding upfront, which would allow the most significant savings associated with that,” Schmidt said. “Without the EOQ funding, it is not quite as advantageous to have a multi-year” contract.

Greg Ulmer, head of Lockheed Martin’s aeronautics programs, told reporters during the Paris Air Show that it is reasonable to assume the F-35 will not simply go through a Block 4 upgrade, but many more after that, saying there could be a Block 8. Schmidt agreed, but said that those upgrades won’t depend on having a new engine for the F-35, in the form of an Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP) powerplant from GE Aerospace or Pratt & Whitney.

“Oh, absolutely, there are more blocks ahead,” Schmidt said.

“But the selection of the engine isn’t the driver. The driver to supporting Blocks 5 and beyond is the electrical and cooling capacity, which is driven by the power and thermal management system (PTMS). Of which, both the [Pratt-offered Engine Core Upgrade] and the AETP could handle,” he said.

Of the competition between GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney over whether the F-35 needs an AETP engine or a less advanced Engine Core Upgrade, Schmidt noted that certain models of the F-35 would not have been able to take the AETP engine, potentially “bifurcating” the fleet.

Instead, he focused on the importance of a new PTMS to controlling the F-35’s growing power needs.

“What we end up with” in that system “will drive … where we can go relative to electrical power going forward.”

Space Force Sets New Speed Record Going from Orders to Launch in 27 Hours

Space Force Sets New Speed Record Going from Orders to Launch in 27 Hours

Sept. 15, 2023 | By David Roza

The Space Force set a scorching new record Sept. 14 when it launched a satellite into orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., just 27 hours after receiving launch orders. The successful mission, named Victus Nox, is a milestone as the branch works to deploy new systems faster in response to changing operational requirements.

“The success of Victus Nox marks a culture shift in our nation’s ability to deter adversary aggression and, when required, respond with the operational speed necessary to deliver decisive capabilities to our warfighters,” Lt. Gen. Michael Guetlein, Space Systems Command boss (SSC), said in a press release Sept. 15. 

“This exercise … proves the United States Space Force can rapidly integrate capabilities and will respond to aggression when called to do so on tactically relevant timelines,” he added.

The 27-hour launch record is just the latest in a series of rapid-fire preparations that began less than a year ago, when SSC, the field command responsible for acquiring and launching space systems, awarded contracts to Millennium Space Systems and Firefly Aerospace. Millennium built the satellite, which will help the service’s Space Domain Awareness mission, the manufacturer wrote in a press release, while Firefly built the launch vehicle.

In August, the two companies entered a ‘hot standby phase’ where they awaited an alert notification from Space Force that would give them 60 hours to transport the payload from the Millennium facility in El Segundo to Vandenberg 165 miles away, then test, fuel, and mate it to Firefly’s Alpha launch vehicle. 

That series of tasks usually takes weeks or months to complete, but the Victus Nox team completed it in just 58 hours before standing on alert as they awaited the call to launch. The previous record of 21 days was set in June 2021, when SSC launched a Northrop Grumman Pegasus XL rocket carried by a modified airliner. That mission was called Tactically Responsive Launch-2 (TacRL-2)—the general ability to rapidly launch satellites to respond to urgent operational needs is called Tactically Responsive Space (TacRS).

The Firefly Alpha launch vehicle deploys its Millennium Space Systems payload in low-Earth orbit, Sept. 14, 2023. (Photo courtesy Firefly Aerospace)

Now that it is deployed in low Earth orbit, the Victus Nox satellite has a deadline to begin operations within 48 hours. The mission is a major accomplishment for SSC’s Space Safari Program Office, which is charged with responding to urgent on-orbit needs, a capability space experts say needs to move faster.

“We need to develop combat-ready forces that are resilient and are ready for the fight,” Lt. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear, said in March. “A key part of that is ensuring our architectures are threat-informed and capabilities are delivered at an operationally relevant pace and speed.”

In a Firefly press release, the company said it was ramping up production of Alpha launch vehicles, which could indicate future speed runs. 

The Space Force has already started planning another Tactically-Responsive Space mission, in partnership with the Defense Innovation Unit. Dubbed Victus Haze, the mission’s goal is to combine ground stations, launch capabilities, and a satellite and be ready to launch on 24 hours’ notice, and mission-ready within 48 hours of reaching orbit.

Ukraine Makes Do With ‘Useful’ Western Weapons While Waiting for F-16s

Ukraine Makes Do With ‘Useful’ Western Weapons While Waiting for F-16s

Sept. 15, 2023 | By Chris Gordon

While the West’s decision to train and equip Ukraine’s Air Force with American-made F-16s has garnered enormous attention, the war there is likely to remain a slugfest on the ground for months to come, U.S. military officials say. 

“Just giving them an F-16 is not going to immediately turn the tide and give them air superiority,” Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa, told Air & Space Forces Magazine at a media roundtable at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “But it’s a start.”

In the meantime, Ukraine’s forces will continue to rely heavily on its artillery and mobile HIMARS launchers, which fire precision GMLRS rockets that have a range of nearly 50 miles. 

President Joe Biden’s administration is also considering providing Ukraine this fall with a limited number of ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of 100 miles to 190 miles, depending on the model. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a CNN interview broadcast Sept. 10 that he plans to appeal directly to President Biden for the ATACMS. The Ukrainian leader is planning to visit Washington next week to meet with Biden following his speech to the United Nations General Assembly,

Ukraine’s GMLRS rockets and JDAM Extended-Range guided bombs have already forced Russia to move high-value targets such as command and control facilities and ammunition depots farther away from the front line, and the provision of ATACMS would add to Kyiv’s striking power.

“They have enabled Ukraine to reach further back behind enemy lines and take out command and control centers,” Hecker said on Sept. 13 when asked about Ukraine’s current kit.

“The munitions, if you blow them all up, then they don’t have any. And then, if they have a small amount, then they can’t get them there,” said Hecker. “And then, if they don’t have anyone to command and control, all that kind of slows them down. That’s what has been useful.”

The U.S. has provided the GMLRS rockets with the condition they cannot be used to strike Russian territory itself, and if ATACMS are provided, they will almost certainly come with a similar stipulation in line with U.S. policy on materiel for Ukraine.

Ukraine has turned to indigenous drones for some attacks inside Russia, including air bases—though Ukraine usually does not take credit for those attacks as a matter of policy. 

The F-16s Ukraine will eventually acquire will boost the country’s military, but employing the aircraft will be challenging. 

Hecker, also the commander of NATO Allied Air Command, has focused on improving the alliance’s ability to counter air defenses. Hecker said defeating Russian air defenses inside occupied Ukrainian territory would be a difficult task even with Western weapons.

“It’s very difficult for 31 nations to take out their integrated air and missile defense systems, much less one country that doesn’t have the advanced systems that the other 31 in NATO have,” Hecker said.

Adding to the challenge, Russia has deployed air defenses in Belarus and on Russian territory. But Washington will almost certainly insist that they remain off limits for Ukrainian air strikes to avoid widening the conflict. 

Because of Russia’s robust air defense, Hecker said the skies over Ukraine will likely remain contested for the foreseeable future and Ukraine will continue to have to employ tactics such as flying low to the ground to use terrain in an attempt to avoid radar, before popping up to launch weapons.

“I think they’re going to have to do that for a while,” Hecker said.

One area where F-16 will help is interoperability. So far, Ukraine has been employing some of its Western-provided weapons on Soviet-era aircraft, such as American HARM anti-radiation missiles and JDAM-Extended Range guided bombs as well as Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP long-range cruise missiles. Those weapons have proved useful for Ukraine, but the jerry-rigged solutions can only go so far.

“We didn’t just give it to them and say, ‘Good luck,” Hecker said. “They can’t use the same tactics as us because the weapon is not as interoperable on a MiG-29 as it would be on the F-16 … they’ve done it—had some successes, had some failures.”

The inability of Ukraine and Russia to establish air superiority, Hecker said, underscores the need for the U.S. to continue the deployment of cutting-edge air and space systems.

“They haven’t been able to get air superiority on either side,” Hecker said. “Without that, what they started out doing was throwing 155 [artillery] rounds back and forth at one another. And what goes with that is mass casualties. Cities just turned into a rubble. You have collateral damage, such as schools, hospitals, and those kinds of things—some on purpose, some not. And that’s a war that I don’t think any one of us want to fight.”